Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place
Speaker 1: your bets. It is be Joey p joe Pisapia and
Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. We're looking at the best bets
Speaker 1: for week fifteen. All the teams are back playing, and
Speaker 1: all the best players are back here as well. Andrew Ericson,
Speaker 1: Terrell Furman Junior here to help you with the best
Speaker 1: bets for the week. Should be a fun one. We've
Speaker 1: got some lines that are well, pretty large if you're
Speaker 1: looking at say the Giants and Ravens. You've got some
Speaker 1: ones that are pretty tight and some that I think
Speaker 1: are just flat out wrong. And we'll get to all
Speaker 1: of them. Baby, We're gonna get to all of them.
Speaker 1: Before we do. Just a quick reminder, don't forget to
Speaker 1: download the Betting Pros app sink your sportsbooks for free
Speaker 1: and utilize all the tools, including a couple free days
Speaker 1: of the premium tools that we have available. So dip
Speaker 1: your toes in the water of wagering. That's nice alliteration.
Speaker 1: Actually I'm gonna keep that for some other shows. And
Speaker 1: of course don't forget to check out all the VP
Speaker 1: interactive tools that you could find out there. To help
Speaker 1: you start betting smarter, not harder. Gentlemen's Week fifteen. We've
Speaker 1: got some playoff field kind of games going on here,
Speaker 1: but I want to start here with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Becauseterrell.
Speaker 1: You always say it, it's always Mike Tomlin as an underdog.
Speaker 1: You love Mike Tomlin as an underdog. He's on the road.
Speaker 1: It's plus five and a half. But no George Pickens
Speaker 1: gives me pause. Make me feel better about the Steelers
Speaker 1: versus the Eagles this week.
Speaker 2: No Pickens, no problem. It doesn't matter. Tomlin has gone
Speaker 2: out there in won games with the way worse staffs.
Speaker 2: This is all you need. All you need is Mike Tomlin.
Speaker 2: You need him to be an underdog, and you need CJ. Watt.
Speaker 2: As long as you have those three things, you are
Speaker 2: always good. It doesn't matter what else who else is
Speaker 2: out there. We've seen Duck Hodges, We've seen Mason Rudolph
Speaker 2: can't even beat Will Levis for the starting job. And
Speaker 2: Will Levis is throwing to the other team. He's throwing
Speaker 2: to the other team, and he can't beat him for
Speaker 2: the starting job because Tomlin made him better. It doesn't matter.
Speaker 2: He's reinvigorated Russ and Russ actually is Russ not corny anymore?
Speaker 2: I mean, Russ is going out here, they're beating the Commanders.
Speaker 2: He's doing the Antonio Brown dance, and like, this team
Speaker 2: is different. Look at hard knocks. Look how this team
Speaker 2: gets behind them. How do you feed this Tomlin team?
Speaker 2: They are completely locked in. And I think this is
Speaker 2: another spot where, hey, they're looking at this Philadelphia Eagles team.
Speaker 2: It's a little crosstown rivalry here. It's going to be
Speaker 2: a lot of people at the game. Steelers Nation is
Speaker 2: going to be everywhere. I think that it's a fifty
Speaker 2: to fifty split in the crowd. And this Eagles team
Speaker 2: just has a bunch of turmoil going on on the inside.
Speaker 2: They're trying to figure out why they're not better, why
Speaker 2: are they not covering these lines. If you look at
Speaker 2: the Eagles this season as a home favorite of more
Speaker 2: than three and a half points, they're one in four ats.
Speaker 2: They cannot handle business when they're supposed to handle business.
Speaker 2: And so I think this is a spot where I'm
Speaker 2: fading them. I'm trusting the system. I'm trusting the system.
Speaker 2: I'm trusting the system. Tomlin as a dog you taking
Speaker 2: no matter.
Speaker 3: What I mean, I think five and a half is
Speaker 3: too many points. Plus five and a half, that's the
Speaker 3: number that we're getting with Mike Tomlin on the road
Speaker 3: as an underdog, which you should just basically take them
Speaker 3: on the money line right at this point. They just
Speaker 3: based on his track record eight and six on the
Speaker 3: road against the spread money line, they're eight and six
Speaker 3: on the road. So I mean, if you really want
Speaker 3: a fat pay day, you're just looking at Steelers went
Speaker 3: out right because they've done this act before. When the
Speaker 3: backs against the wall, Oh they don't have George Pickens, Well,
Speaker 3: I mean George Pickens was gonna have a tough match
Speaker 3: up anyway. And if anything, I was impressed a lot
Speaker 3: by what I saw from Mike Williams last week. He's
Speaker 3: getting more integrated into this offense. It just takes one
Speaker 3: moon ball from h Russell Wilson to kind of change
Speaker 3: the tides of the game. Williams like Big Mike, and
Speaker 3: the thing with Big Mike and why I'm not like
Speaker 3: overly concerned about Oh well, it's like tough cornerbacks Erickson. Well,
Speaker 3: Mike Williams is gonna be covered anyway. Like he's not
Speaker 3: a separator, but he can just go up and snag
Speaker 3: the ball in the air. So that's why I like
Speaker 3: Mike Williams is kind of like an underrated X factor
Speaker 3: in this matchup. I know, Joe, you talked about earlier
Speaker 3: in some shows about maybe a little bit more justin
Speaker 3: fields in this game. How do the Eagles respond to
Speaker 3: that type of offensive wrinkle? And Mike Thomas gotta be
Speaker 3: loving all this AJ Brown, This Jalen Hurts that he's
Speaker 3: gonna take advantage of that because you know that they're
Speaker 3: gonna try to force targets to AJ Brown and the
Speaker 3: Steelers are gonna sit on that pick six. That's what
Speaker 3: they're gonna do. I mean, Jalen Hurts is gonna throw
Speaker 3: more attempts than he should in this game because the
Speaker 3: Eagles have a narrative to set. Oh no, we do
Speaker 3: like our receivers. We do throw the ball and what's
Speaker 3: gonna happen is that's gonna give more opportunities for TJ. Watt.
Speaker 3: This is such a psychological matchup where it plays so
Speaker 3: much into the Steelers, where the Eagles are just so
Speaker 3: stuck inside their own minds right now that they're not
Speaker 3: even focused on winning the game like they're focused on it.
Speaker 3: We gotta keep our players happy this and that. I
Speaker 3: think the Steelers are gonna take full advantage. So plus
Speaker 3: five and a half and like Treel Furman always says,
Speaker 3: sprint going on the money line those dogs.
Speaker 1: Yes, you're getting plus two hundred on the money line.
Speaker 3: I see.
Speaker 1: And yesterday I did bring up on the live if
Speaker 1: you missed it. If you missed it, you can go
Speaker 1: back and watch on the YouTube channel. But we did
Speaker 1: the livestream now on Wednesdays at three pm Eastern, so
Speaker 1: when you ring your belt notifications, you won't miss it.
Speaker 1: But if you did, we talked about it yesterday and
Speaker 1: I brought up maybe you do see some packages with
Speaker 1: justin fields. If you don't have you know, Pickens on
Speaker 1: the field, maybe you're gonna see a little bit more,
Speaker 1: you know, cleverness, try to throw the Eagles off their
Speaker 1: game a little bit, especially when you get in the
Speaker 1: red zone. I could see that also, like the over
Speaker 1: on Friarmouth Props this week too. More on that in
Speaker 1: the show tomorrow we'll talk about. Let's get to the
Speaker 1: next game on the list here, Terrell, you like the
Speaker 1: Bengals at minus five now the Bengals are going against
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans. Defensively, again, they have been respectable most of
Speaker 1: the year. I know the number for this game is
Speaker 1: forty six, but let's talk about the Bengals here. Do
Speaker 1: you why are you confident in this minus five because
Speaker 1: that defense continues against any offense really to be a liability.
Speaker 1: I know the Tennessee offense is worse than most, but
Speaker 1: we've seen lesser offenses go up there and still put
Speaker 1: up points against the Bengals regardless.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, shoot, the twenty points to the Cowboys
Speaker 2: was not impressive for that defense and giving up that
Speaker 2: to Cooper Rush and how they were able to move
Speaker 2: the football. But I think that nonetheless Joe Burrown, this
Speaker 2: offense is going to score points like that is going
Speaker 2: to happen, and if you're not able to match them,
Speaker 2: regardless of how bad the defense is. I just think
Speaker 2: that will Levis turns the ball over way too much,
Speaker 2: very unprotected with the football. Even if it's not Will Levis.
Speaker 2: Even if Will Levis is out of the game for
Speaker 2: some reason and it's now Mason Rudolph, he still has
Speaker 2: the same problem with The Titans are horrible on special
Speaker 2: teams they give up, block punts, block field goals, all
Speaker 2: this other stuff. So you have a third aspect of
Speaker 2: the game that I think the Cincinnati Bengals are gonna
Speaker 2: take advantage of because they're a desperate team. Every single
Speaker 2: game they're playing for their lives. You only have a
Speaker 2: shot at the playoffs if you're nine to eight. You
Speaker 2: can't take a ninth loss. So this team thinks that
Speaker 2: they're relatively there. Joe Burrow is shaking up about his
Speaker 2: home getting broken into. I think that's gonna turn out
Speaker 2: on the field as well, like I and See Higgins.
Speaker 2: See Higgins is unhappy, and that's Joe Burrow's guy. Still,
Speaker 2: Like he's gonna go feed him the ball, like I
Speaker 2: think he's gonna continue to get his pass catchers the football,
Speaker 2: and they're gonna be really, really good. And they've been
Speaker 2: scoring on everybody, like everybody as a blake. They've been scoring.
Speaker 2: It's just the defense has been given up a bunch
Speaker 2: of points. And I'm just gonna I'm good fading Will Levis.
Speaker 2: Will Levis can prove it to me this is a
Speaker 2: complete one eighty from week one, Will Levis, you can
Speaker 2: prove it to me. I love the Bengals here laying
Speaker 2: the points they covered against the Cowboys, and I think
Speaker 2: it can be the exact same game script where maybe
Speaker 2: this is a tighter game for a couple of quarters,
Speaker 2: but when it comes down to the end, they make
Speaker 2: the right play, get a touchdown, and we get to cover.
Speaker 1: The last time the Carolina Panthers were a favorite in
Speaker 1: the game, it was December eighteenth, twenty twenty two. That's
Speaker 1: two years ago, just almost to the date. So this
Speaker 1: week against the Dallas Cowboys they are That is an
Speaker 1: incredible thing here to sit here and have this evolution
Speaker 1: of or evolution of the Carolina Panthers and de evolution
Speaker 1: of the Dallas Cowboys, and here we are ericson not
Speaker 1: only are you confident that the Panthers will win, but
Speaker 1: you're confident they're going to cover this two and a half?
Speaker 3: I am, and I thought you were going to open
Speaker 3: that little line with Carolina about all right, quiz time,
Speaker 3: who was the quarterback of the Carolina Panthers in twenty
Speaker 3: twenty two when they were favored? If I had guess
Speaker 3: what I mean?
Speaker 1: So?
Speaker 3: Was he there some rendition of Sam Darnold Baker Mayfield? Maybe?
Speaker 3: But you said it was in December, so I don't know.
Speaker 1: Who have Steelers.
Speaker 3: Oh, so it must have been against like what's the
Speaker 3: space Duck Hodges.
Speaker 2: Well, guess what, I know they didn't cover that game, quarterback.
Speaker 2: But I know for a fact they didn't cover the game.
Speaker 2: I don't even Oh, I could tell you right now
Speaker 2: they did not.
Speaker 3: Okay, so again, you said de evolution of Dallas Cowboys.
Speaker 3: I think you meant to say destruction of the Dallas
Speaker 3: Cowboys because that's kind of that's kind of what we're
Speaker 3: seeing here with Dallas.
Speaker 1: Look like, by the way, Pittsburgh Steelers won twenty four
Speaker 1: to sixteen. I found it right, Yes it was and Sam.
Speaker 3: This quarterback? Wow, anyway, it was a plus five and a half, folks.
Speaker 3: I mean, if you don't need any more evidence than that,
Speaker 3: man Mitchell Trubisky on the road.
Speaker 1: Oh my god.
Speaker 3: All right, so right down, obviously the massive turnaround. They
Speaker 3: are five and oh against the spread over their last
Speaker 3: five games. They're two and oh straight up against teams
Speaker 3: with losing records. So the only reason they haven't won
Speaker 3: any of these games over the last two weeks because
Speaker 3: these have actually been good teams that they've gone up
Speaker 3: again but they've covered the spread with ease. They should
Speaker 3: have won. I think a lot of these games I
Speaker 3: don't need you guys to be convinced of that. And
Speaker 3: now they're getting Dallas on a short week. We know
Speaker 3: Dallas is bad. It took the Giants for them to
Speaker 3: finally win a home game, the New York Giants, who
Speaker 3: are currently sixteen and a half point underdogs and counting
Speaker 3: with Tommy DeVito as a quarterback at home against the
Speaker 3: Baltimore Ravens. I just think that doubt like this is
Speaker 3: the spot, like this is where everything kind of comes
Speaker 3: to a head. With Carolina, we've seen the improved play,
Speaker 3: it hasn't translated into wins, but now finally it's going
Speaker 3: to get them a w against the Dallas Cowboys team
Speaker 3: that again, it's not a good team overall. Yes, they
Speaker 3: put another linebacker on into preserve Overshaw is going to
Speaker 3: be out for the rest of the season. Yes, they
Speaker 3: have Micaeh Parsons. That's the one factor of their defense
Speaker 3: that maybe we're concerned about. But the thing that's impressed
Speaker 3: me the most about Bryce Young is we're seeing that
Speaker 3: offscript playmaking ability that we saw at Alabama. So even
Speaker 3: if he is getting pressure from Micah Parsons from this
Speaker 3: pass rush from Dallas. Well, he's shown the last five
Speaker 3: weeks that he can deliver. He can deliver those plays
Speaker 3: on the room, on the move, when he's scrambling, when
Speaker 3: he's making plays. That's why I love his rushing prop
Speaker 3: this week. He's going to be the reason to win
Speaker 3: for the Carolina Panthers this week. So dare I say
Speaker 3: the Cardiac Cats are back? Yes, they are, Carolina min
Speaker 3: two and a half.
Speaker 1: We've got a huge game coming up this week too,
Speaker 1: could be a Super Bowl preview. We're going to talk
Speaker 1: about that one next Before we do, just a quick
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Speaker 1: as well. All right, gentlemen, let's get to the big
Speaker 1: one here. We've got Buffalo, We've got Detroit. I am
Speaker 1: fascinated to see where you guys land on this one.
Speaker 1: It's gonna be in Detroit, so obviously scoring could be
Speaker 1: a bonanza. Terrell Ferman and start with you. What's your
Speaker 1: take on Detroit Buffalo? What is the best bet for
Speaker 1: the biggest game of the week.
Speaker 2: Yeah, simple and easy for me. Let's lay the two
Speaker 2: and a half here with the Lions. I think the
Speaker 2: Lions go ahead and get this done against the Buffalo Bills.
Speaker 2: I can't first of all, quick little mini rare, I
Speaker 2: cannot fathom how you can lose a game and people
Speaker 2: can say you locked up the MVP and a loss,
Speaker 2: because when Lamar Jackson loses, that is the reason why
Speaker 2: they say, oh, we cannot give him MVP. Lamar Jackson
Speaker 2: has more passing yards, more passing touchdowns. He has beaten
Speaker 2: Josh Allen head to head, and Josh Allen couldn't score
Speaker 2: the football at all. Not saying Josh Allen is not
Speaker 2: a great quarterback. He's having an amazing season. But how
Speaker 2: do you lock up the MVP on a loss? And
Speaker 2: I think this is gonna be the spot where they're like, Okay,
Speaker 2: they take the loss, and everybody's like, the Bills are
Speaker 2: gonna bounce back in this game. They're gonna try to
Speaker 2: keep a spitting distance of the Chiefs, and they're forgetting
Speaker 2: that this Lions team has a horseshoe up their ass.
Speaker 2: There is something good about this Lions team where they constantly, constantly,
Speaker 2: constantly find ways to win games. And at this point,
Speaker 2: I'm not fading it no way. I saw this Jared
Speaker 2: Goff throw five interceptions and this team still win the game.
Speaker 2: I saw that with my eyes. I saw him throw
Speaker 2: five interceptions and still within the game. There's something there,
Speaker 2: we've seen Caleb Williams and he gotta coach fire. This
Speaker 2: Lions team gotta coach fire because he was in act.
Speaker 2: He couldn't beat this Lions team because he just went
Speaker 2: there and didn't even use the timeout and eber flew.
Speaker 2: So how do you beat the Bills? You beat the
Speaker 2: Bills by running the football. Well, what do the Lions
Speaker 2: do really really really well? David Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs.
Speaker 2: I think both of them aren't gonna have amazing days.
Speaker 2: Jered Goff is not gonna have to do a lot
Speaker 2: of work here. This is gonna be the stereotypical Lions
Speaker 2: game this season where they dominate on the ground. Jared
Speaker 2: Golf doesn't give you this all world performance, but you
Speaker 2: look at the score and you're like, oh wow, they
Speaker 2: came out with the win. Again. The defenses lied. They're
Speaker 2: flying around, and I really really credit the defense with
Speaker 2: all the injuries that they have to still be able
Speaker 2: to put together a unit that can be competent every
Speaker 2: single given week. So I think that we could see
Speaker 2: some scoring here, and I think that here we have
Speaker 2: a spot where this run game just dominates time and
Speaker 2: possession for the Lions and they're able to squeak out
Speaker 2: of this with the win. Is this going to be
Speaker 2: a big blowout win. I don't think so. But one
Speaker 2: to ten win by the Lions absolutely, and I think
Speaker 2: they get it by three or more. Gimme Lions laying
Speaker 2: two and a half.
Speaker 1: I think the only counter argument. And I like what
Speaker 1: you're saying too about the MVP race too. If Josh
Speaker 1: Allen keeps losing games, has becomes kind of tricky, especially
Speaker 1: if you're saying, well, Lamar loses games, so he's out
Speaker 1: of it. I think the difference is Lamar's lost enough
Speaker 1: games here so far at least where the division is
Speaker 1: slightly out of reach for them, not completely, but slightly,
Speaker 1: especially after this week. If the Steelers win again, it
Speaker 1: gets even tighter. So that's the only thing is, Yeah,
Speaker 1: the East is easy. Yeah they're dominating their division, but
Speaker 1: they're gonna win their division and they still have a
Speaker 1: shot even if they lose this week, to still make
Speaker 1: a run at that one seed two in the next
Speaker 1: couple weeks. Again, I think I think that's the only thing.
Speaker 1: And this game is if this game was Week seventeen,
Speaker 1: I think would stick in people's minds just a little
Speaker 1: bit more, but the fact of this week fifteen is
Speaker 1: still a little bit of time. And also there's just
Speaker 1: that narrative of the fatigue of Lamar Jackson, which isn't right,
Speaker 1: but it's reality where they just get sick of voting
Speaker 1: for the same guy over and over again in the media,
Speaker 1: and that is just what happens. I get sick of
Speaker 1: my homes and againstick of Lamar, and then they'll love
Speaker 1: Josh Allen to get sick at him and they want
Speaker 1: to go start, you know, dropping bo Nick's MVP stuff
Speaker 1: in there. All right, let's get your take on this game.
Speaker 1: So Andrew dare I even have to ask where you're going.
Speaker 1: I mean, you love to talk about this game. He's
Speaker 1: the undertaker, but this is also the cores field, as
Speaker 1: he loves to tell us every week of the NFL.
Speaker 1: So I gotta imagine, with all these weapons here and
Speaker 1: now all these quarterbacks that are playing so well, that
Speaker 1: you're going to take the over in this one.
Speaker 3: Yep, over Lions Bills fifty four and a half points. Yes,
Speaker 3: it is a massive number. It's actually the highest projected
Speaker 3: total that we've seen in the NFL this season. But
Speaker 3: keep in mind fifty four and a half points is
Speaker 3: the average, not the projected total, the average of resulting
Speaker 3: games played in Detroit over the last three plus seasons.
Speaker 3: So we're hitting this number fifty percent of the time
Speaker 3: on average. So and that's not considering the matchup that
Speaker 3: we have against Obviously, I don't need convincing about. We
Speaker 3: have two explosive offenses that can move the ball at will.
Speaker 3: For I'm just talked about Detroit. They're going to score.
Speaker 3: They score against literally everybody. You have Josh Allen who
Speaker 3: scored six touchdowns last week, he might score six touchdowns
Speaker 3: again in a losing effort. I don't know, but I
Speaker 3: don't really care who wins this game, because all I
Speaker 3: know this are gonna be points. And even when you
Speaker 3: look at just this season, Lions games on average are
Speaker 3: hitting fifty five points per game at home. The last
Speaker 3: five home games for the Lions have seen four go
Speaker 3: for fifty eight or more points sixty one point average.
Speaker 3: So I understand that there might be hesitants about well, this,
Speaker 3: this this number is so big, there's no value, there's
Speaker 3: no virus, like, maybe there's no value, but it's gonna hit.
Speaker 3: It's kind of good. But it's gonna go over the totals.
Speaker 1: And there's I think there's a need for the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills after last week that you know they feel, man,
Speaker 1: we really you know should have been should have had
Speaker 1: that game. You know, we should have beaten a Rams team.
Speaker 1: But you know that's you get caught that trap week
Speaker 1: in between. And I think there's a not desperation, but
Speaker 1: a little bit of motivation here where like Buffalo is like, Okay, look,
Speaker 1: this is this is our new measuring stick because everybody
Speaker 1: thinks the line is the best even in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Is how good are we? And I feel like Josh
Speaker 1: Allen w lance for that Bill, don't you?
Speaker 3: I do? And I think that from a mindset perspective,
Speaker 3: you know, both teams are going coaching into this game.
Speaker 3: Do you think the Bills are even considering punting at
Speaker 3: any point? Like they're they're on their own forty yard?
Speaker 3: But I'm like, well, we got to go for it
Speaker 3: because you know Dan Campbell's going for it. So I
Speaker 3: just think he's.
Speaker 1: Got to get that out of a system too, Dude,
Speaker 1: I I am. I mean, when you get the playoffs,
Speaker 1: you gotta stop doing that crap. It's gonna kill you.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just going to no.
Speaker 2: Yeah, oh, that's gonna be the reason they don't win
Speaker 2: a super Bowl, regardless of whether it happens in the
Speaker 2: Divisional round, or whether it happens in the Conference championship,
Speaker 2: or whether it happens in the super Bowl Bowl prediction. Here.
Speaker 2: You heard it right here, right now. The reason the
Speaker 2: Lions get knocked out of the playoffs is because they
Speaker 2: go for it randomly on fourth down in a game
Speaker 2: and they don't get it and it actually kicks them
Speaker 2: into butt.
Speaker 1: It's one of the things that worries me the most
Speaker 1: about them playing Kansas City in the Super Bowl because
Speaker 1: Kansas City, with Andy Reid and the way that they operate,
Speaker 1: right there's such a well owed machine in terms of operation.
Speaker 1: Maybe not always execution in the last two years, but operation.
Speaker 1: That's not where you want Dan Campbell to be against
Speaker 1: Andy Reid again. There's gonna be a decision making process
Speaker 1: at some point that's gonna go awry. And I'm with
Speaker 1: you one hundred percent. That's why I think you do
Speaker 1: want the Buffalo Bills. I think the Buffalo Bills are
Speaker 1: an easier win for you if you do get the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl on the AFC side, I even think the
Speaker 1: Ravens are an easier win for you. It's specifically Andy
Speaker 1: Reid that I worry about the most, potentially andrew anything
Speaker 1: else before we move on to the next game here
Speaker 1: on this last.
Speaker 3: One, actually I did, so I don't have anything else again,
Speaker 3: love the over. I did want to bring back up
Speaker 3: the topic of the MVP with with Josh Allen, like
Speaker 3: Furman laid out talking about well again, so like, let's
Speaker 3: let's say that we're right here, it's a shootout over Cashes.
Speaker 3: The Lions win again, so the Bills have lost too straight.
Speaker 3: The MVP obviously doesn't get it doesn't strengthen for Josh Allen,
Speaker 3: right if they lose again, like I can't imagine that
Speaker 3: unless it's another six touchdown effort and people don't care.
Speaker 3: And what if the Eagles.
Speaker 2: That losses in December? Yeah, in December, Like that's the
Speaker 2: early in the season. Okay, in December, Batan back losses.
Speaker 1: Like yeah, but I mean again, if you lose to
Speaker 1: the best team in football in the NFC, like I
Speaker 1: it depends. It does depend on the performance, because what
Speaker 1: if it is this incredible game that it goes to overtime,
Speaker 1: and none of it's Josh Allen's fault. He's not throwing
Speaker 1: any picks right, the defense just giving up points every time.
Speaker 1: I do think it matters because I think that's the
Speaker 1: narrative from last week's game that people were riding as well. Well,
Speaker 1: Josh Allen did all he could to win that football game.
Speaker 1: What else? What else could he possibly do? And I
Speaker 1: don't think that's wrong necessary?
Speaker 3: Do you think that I'm just trying to like go
Speaker 3: through the scenarios in my mind. Do you think that
Speaker 3: it might make sense? Well, once you think Lamar Jackson
Speaker 3: is dead as m VP, because well, look.
Speaker 1: The market does because he's plus fourteen hundred. Now he's
Speaker 1: gonna put up hug numbers against You're.
Speaker 3: Gonna put up huge numbers this week. The Steelers could lose,
Speaker 3: so are the Ravens like they're not? I mean, the
Speaker 3: Steelers have a tough schedule, so if they lose more games,
Speaker 3: the Ravens could sneak up and win that division still
Speaker 3: and then if it.
Speaker 2: Depends, Wary still have a matchup.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Barkley is still on pace for that Dickerson record too,
Speaker 1: So if Barkley is a big game against the Steelers
Speaker 1: and they romp over the Steelers, then you know these
Speaker 1: plus five hundred. He's the closest one. Allen is minus
Speaker 1: four fifty. For that to come back into the positive
Speaker 1: even with a loss, Josh Allen would have to play
Speaker 1: incredibly poorly in this game and they have to get
Speaker 1: blown out. I think that's the only way it even
Speaker 1: like comes even more anywhere.
Speaker 3: If he just has a matter of how he plays,
Speaker 3: it doesn't matter if they win.
Speaker 1: You think, That's what I think, especially the structure of what's.
Speaker 2: Going on the gay Look who they played this season,
Speaker 2: and let's look at them. Relatives matter. They haven't. I mean,
Speaker 2: Cardinals Dolphin doesn't matter. I'm telling you that they're not
Speaker 2: gonna care. Every time they played except the Chiefs the
Speaker 2: chief And it seems like the Chiefs win is what
Speaker 2: got him the MVP. Honestly, it feels like the Chiefs
Speaker 2: win is the marquee win that's gonna get him the MVP.
Speaker 2: Because they lost to the Texans, they lost to the Ravens,
Speaker 2: and if they lose to the Lions, that's like, come on, now,
Speaker 2: those are three of the four best teams in the
Speaker 2: league and you lost three of them.
Speaker 1: Oh look, man, I'm hedging with the Bills for the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. I'm still sticking with my Lions and Chiefs,
Speaker 1: and everybody can hit on the Chiefs all they want.
Speaker 1: The end of the day, as you said, you know,
Speaker 1: the Bills have shown they can compete against the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: We know that, but if the Bills getting it done
Speaker 1: in big spots is still something that I'm concerned with
Speaker 1: when we get into the playoff time. That's just where
Speaker 1: I'm that. I want to get to the Chargers game too,
Speaker 1: because we always like Baker Mayfield when he's an underdog.
Speaker 1: He's an underdog this week, but it is against the Chargers,
Speaker 1: and you're on the side of the Chargers, and typically
Speaker 1: I want to be on the Baker Mayfield side. But
Speaker 1: I've been undecided about this one because I feel like
Speaker 1: the Chargers are really starting to I mean, they're becoming
Speaker 1: a really formidable team. The injuries have been a bit
Speaker 1: of an issue lately. But let's talk about this minus
Speaker 1: three and why you're comfortable with it as a best
Speaker 1: bet this week, because this is a game that actually
Speaker 1: worries me.
Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I feel pretty good about it. And I'm
Speaker 2: watching the lat Maconkee News. From what I'm hearing is
Speaker 2: that he looks like he's gonna go. He's been limited
Speaker 2: in practice, and that's a good sign to him playing,
Speaker 2: because if he plays, he's absolutely torching this secondary. And
Speaker 2: that's what it is for me. I think that this
Speaker 2: is the Justin Herbert I prove to you that I'm
Speaker 2: better than an average quarterback type game where he just
Speaker 2: kind of cooks this secondary that's been giving the Buccaneers
Speaker 2: issues all season. It's never really been about Baker Mayfield.
Speaker 2: I think Baker Mayfield actually would be fine in the game.
Speaker 2: He'll be okay. This Chargers defense is still really good.
Speaker 2: They are really really still pesky to given up points.
Speaker 2: It's only a handful of times that they actually literally
Speaker 2: just a handful against the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore
Speaker 2: Ravens where they gave up more than three touchdowns. So
Speaker 2: if you're not scoring three touchdowns against this team, I
Speaker 2: think that the Chargers can score three touchdowns against the
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. So I'm back in. Justin Herbert is
Speaker 2: looking like an actual more than average quarterback. And I'm
Speaker 2: not even a guy that's really really high on Justin Herbert.
Speaker 2: I think he's slightly overrated, but I think this is
Speaker 2: a really good spot where he's getting a soft defense,
Speaker 2: a soft secondary. He's a they're not going to be
Speaker 2: able to generate as much pressure. And then I love
Speaker 2: the coaching and I'm taking Harball. I think Harball is
Speaker 2: a great coach. He's got this team, this defense really
Speaker 2: really solidified out of a team last year whose defense
Speaker 2: was horrible, and they're essentially the same pieces, Like it's
Speaker 2: essentially the same pieces. He's coached them up better. And
Speaker 2: so yeah, I'm fading Tampa Bay here. I think they're
Speaker 2: going to have some issues. I'm really really worried because
Speaker 2: in my big money fantasy league I have Mike Evans
Speaker 2: and I really really need Mike Evans to have a
Speaker 2: good week. But I don't think it's gonna happen. I
Speaker 2: really don't. I think Chargers are going to play some
Speaker 2: good defense and be able to get a win.
Speaker 1: All right, We've been talking about it all week, so
Speaker 1: now we're here on Thursday. So the Houston Miami situation,
Speaker 1: Miami can't be good teams. It's used to a good team,
Speaker 1: Andrew are we just gonna look past all of it?
Speaker 1: And just go to the total instead.
Speaker 3: Yes, because I'm a coward and I wanted to put
Speaker 3: Dolphins plus three, but it just burned in my memory
Speaker 3: as I review this game, be like, why did I
Speaker 3: pick the dolphinscause the team against a big record? Why
Speaker 3: why did I did this to myself? So instead, I'm
Speaker 3: just gonna fade both teams, and the easiest way to
Speaker 3: do that is to take the under in the game.
Speaker 3: Forty seven points is a pretty high total, and I
Speaker 3: think that's if we were getting c J strived from
Speaker 3: last year, where we'd feel confident about, oh, like, let's
Speaker 3: take the over.
Speaker 1: C J.
Speaker 3: Stroud firing on all cylinders. Has not been the case
Speaker 3: so whatsoever this year. And we just look at the trends.
Speaker 3: Six of the Texans last nine games as favorites have
Speaker 3: gone under the total at home this year, they've played
Speaker 3: one game that has gone over the total. They're one
Speaker 3: and five towards the over forty five points per game.
Speaker 3: The Dolphins six of the seven last road games have
Speaker 3: gone under the total. So yeah, I just really want
Speaker 3: to fade both these teams in this situation. I get
Speaker 3: that the texts are coming off of bye week. Maybe
Speaker 3: we see more of a offensive you know, improvement, or
Speaker 3: maybe we just see more of the same from them,
Speaker 3: where it really hasn't been this high flying show and
Speaker 3: they just want to run the ball with Joe Mixon
Speaker 3: because that's really what's worked for them the best all
Speaker 3: year long. And every time you feel comfortable with the
Speaker 3: Dolphins say oh, well they're at a dome this time, Well,
Speaker 3: you know, they played the last two road games that
Speaker 3: they've played that they've had with really high totals. I'm
Speaker 3: looking at the numbers here at forty seven and a
Speaker 3: half and forty nine and a half, they sailed under
Speaker 3: the projected total. It was the Rams and Dolphins game
Speaker 3: that was at forty nine and a half in a dome.
Speaker 3: Everyone's like, oh, this game is gonna go way over.
Speaker 3: Wasn't even close. The Dolphins couldn't do anything on offense
Speaker 3: because they're on the road against a good team. So
Speaker 3: I just yeah, for me, it's under forty seven points. Again.
Speaker 3: I wanted to come on here and confidently back the Dolphins,
Speaker 3: but just can't do that to myself because I'm going
Speaker 3: to look up and be like, well you got what
Speaker 3: you just Erickson, because you bet on the Dolphins against
Speaker 3: a team with a winning record.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's it's tough. I think I'm not gonna call
Speaker 1: you a coward about this. I just think it's probably
Speaker 1: the path of least resistance, to be honest with you,
Speaker 1: I think that's where it is and and and that's
Speaker 1: what we're trying to do here. I'm trying to win money,
Speaker 1: and that little bit of variance is enough. I think
Speaker 1: we're gonna make you nervous. I think I would just
Speaker 1: go with this under two. So we'll see what happens there.
Speaker 1: One more game for each of the guys, and we're
Speaker 1: gonna talk about the upset special in the parlay of
Speaker 1: the week. Let's get the Broncos game in here. The
Speaker 1: Broncos are four point favorites this week. They've earned this.
Speaker 1: They're in a spot here against the Indianapolis Colts where
Speaker 1: you are looking at, you know, Anthony Richardson trying to
Speaker 1: claw his way back into relevance, the Denver Broncos at
Speaker 1: home with bow Nicks playing so well, it's hard not
Speaker 1: to like where this team is going. They're a playoff
Speaker 1: team right now, and it feels like a game they
Speaker 1: should win. So obviously, Trell, you're pretty confident that they're
Speaker 1: gonna win this one very handily.
Speaker 2: Would you beolieve me if Fassett I'm in love some
Speaker 2: mean yes, all the way on the side of bow Knicks.
Speaker 2: And I mean, if you just go and watch my
Speaker 2: progression of how if he I was on bow knicks
Speaker 2: and this Broncos team still taking them, but if he
Speaker 2: to now me being confident in saying that Sean Payton
Speaker 2: has figured out bow Knicks and it's so easy, it's
Speaker 2: so easy. We're not gonna put it. We're not gonna
Speaker 2: put them in danger, guys, and we're gonna play really
Speaker 2: really good defense. And now we have a quarterback that
Speaker 2: will actually give us the football without us asking. He's
Speaker 2: just gonna give it to us sometimes. And and the
Speaker 2: little whatever whatever voodoo that the Colts had that they
Speaker 2: kept covering games with Joe Flacco with Anthony Richardson, that
Speaker 2: has died off in the last couple of weeks. Here
Speaker 2: they're four and five. No, yeah, for their last five games,
Speaker 2: they haven't covered the spread at all. They didn't cover
Speaker 2: a six point dogs against Minnesota, and they didn't cover
Speaker 2: against the Bills. They didn't cover against the Lions. They
Speaker 2: didn't even covers two and a half point favorites against
Speaker 2: the Patriots. Like, there's so many reasons of why this
Speaker 2: Colts team is just not good, and I think the
Speaker 2: markets just not catching up or they don't want to
Speaker 2: make bo Nicks too big of a favorite. Nonetheless, bo
Speaker 2: Nicks six and zero is a favorite, so I'm not afraid.
Speaker 2: He's already given me all the pedigree of showing hey
Speaker 2: when they trust this guy, of being a favorite. This
Speaker 2: Denver Broncos team ten and three, ats I keep winning
Speaker 2: with this team. I want to stop betting them. But
Speaker 2: they're just a wagon and they just haven't adjusted. And
Speaker 2: maybe it's because it's a rookie quarterback and they're playing
Speaker 2: really well. But this is a solid team. This is
Speaker 2: a playoff team. They look really good and I'm taking
Speaker 2: bo Knicks yet again to be able to get this done.
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna play really really good defense, and
Speaker 2: he's just gonna protect the football and not do too much,
Speaker 2: just get the ball downfield.
Speaker 1: The Commanders might not have to do too much because
Speaker 1: there's nobody left to play for the New Orleans Saints
Speaker 1: this week. Obviously another injury bug for the Saints. They
Speaker 1: lost Taysom Hill a couple of weeks ago. Now they
Speaker 1: lost Derek are Alvin Kamaraz, somebody should put him bubble wrap.
Speaker 1: If I'm Kamara, I just I'm like, look, maybe I
Speaker 1: should just call it a day.
Speaker 3: Uh.
Speaker 1: These Saints are at home, but it doesn't matter. You're
Speaker 1: seeing seven seven and a half here on Washington on
Speaker 1: the road and frankly ericson they should go in there
Speaker 1: after a bye and just pound on the Saints and
Speaker 1: solidify this playoff run because they're right there. They're towards
Speaker 1: the end of the bracket right now. But the Commanders,
Speaker 1: this is a game that you have to win to
Speaker 1: maintain that lead you have in the NFC, in that
Speaker 1: playoff hunt. And it feels like a game that's not
Speaker 1: lost on Dan Quinn, It's not lost on Jane Daniels.
Speaker 1: In this crew, they should win this game. The question
Speaker 1: is covering the seven? You say, yes, I do, and.
Speaker 3: I know that everyone's looking at Oh, the Ravens are
Speaker 3: just going to destroy the Giants, going to be forty enough. No,
Speaker 3: this is the game where the Commanders are going to
Speaker 3: go in and destroy the We're on sane, so you.
Speaker 2: Think the Giants are covering. Is that what you're saying?
Speaker 2: I is that what you just said? I'm sorry, I
Speaker 2: didn't mean to interrupt him.
Speaker 1: Now that's not a best bet, but you make the
Speaker 1: Giants are not covering the fourteen and a half that
Speaker 1: I got on Monday or the sixteen and a half
Speaker 1: that it is today.
Speaker 3: I trust the process. Double digit dogs at home don't care.
Speaker 3: Trust the process.
Speaker 1: Well, you can trust it all you want. It's gonna
Speaker 1: be it's gonna be thirty seven to four or seven whatever,
Speaker 1: whether I don't even know what kind of nuts trust.
Speaker 3: I trust the process. Do with the numbers telling me
Speaker 3: to do regardless, the Commanders are going to cover again.
Speaker 3: If anything, I'm laying the points of the Commanders before
Speaker 3: I do with the Ravens. So that's where I'm gonna
Speaker 3: put my money. Commanders cover the spread eight or last
Speaker 3: nine games against teams with a losing record. They've also
Speaker 3: won seven or last eight games against teams that held
Speaker 3: a losing record. So the Commanders is a team that
Speaker 3: entering this year obviously came in with low expectations. We
Speaker 3: weren't really sure what they would be. Rookie quarterback. New
Speaker 3: coaches are up and down the board, and they've taken
Speaker 3: our of business against really bad teams as a result. Right,
Speaker 3: So I think we're a year away from them being
Speaker 3: a legitimate, like playoff contender. Even if they make the postseason,
Speaker 3: they're probably gonna be a one and done team look
Speaker 3: ahead till twenty twenty five. But against a team like
Speaker 3: the New Orleans Saints, like you said, Joe, on their
Speaker 3: last leg, we don't know who else they have left.
Speaker 3: We don't even know who they're starting a quarterback because
Speaker 3: they probably I don't know who the better option is
Speaker 3: at this point because the scene Spencer Ratler, he played
Speaker 3: a couple of games, wasn't great. Jake Hayner is the
Speaker 3: guy that's always the guy that comes in and never
Speaker 3: looks good after Derek Carr gets hurt for the third
Speaker 3: time all season long. So I just think we're forgetting that.
Speaker 3: The last time he saw the Commanders, they steam rolled
Speaker 3: the Tennessee Titans, who allegedly had a good run defense.
Speaker 3: The Saints do not have a good run defense against
Speaker 3: bad teams. Twenty ninth and run defense this year. The
Speaker 3: Washington Commanders have the third most efficient run game. And
Speaker 3: I know that we like to favor teams just intertally
Speaker 3: coming off a bye week, But I think that the
Speaker 3: Commanders really need because their guys were actually hurt, right,
Speaker 3: Like Jane Daniel was dealing with a rib injury. We
Speaker 3: know Brian Robinson was on the injury report. Maybe Marsha
Speaker 3: Latimer finally plays for the Washington Commanders in a revenge Yeah,
Speaker 3: in a revenge game. So maybe he actually suits up
Speaker 3: since they traded a third round pick for him and
Speaker 3: he still hasn't played for their team. But yeah, I
Speaker 3: think that they're gonna be healthier and the Saints, man,
Speaker 3: they barely beat the Giants, as we alluded to again,
Speaker 3: a team that is laughable at this point. So I'm
Speaker 3: gonna lay the points with the Commanders on the road.
Speaker 3: It's uh, it's a homecoming right for Jaye Daniels going
Speaker 3: back to played at LSU for two years. I think
Speaker 3: that it's a game where he's gonna want to show
Speaker 3: up and put up a lot of points. I think
Speaker 3: the Commander's role.
Speaker 1: Speaking of a lot of points, I'm gonna say thirty
Speaker 1: seven to ten for the Giants score. Charle's that sound right?
Speaker 1: This week? Yeah, I'm gonna give him a touchdown in
Speaker 1: a field goal. I think somehow they scratch out a
Speaker 1: touchdown at.
Speaker 3: The end turn for a touchdown last week, I call
Speaker 3: it back they had.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that field right to you.
Speaker 1: Actually, yeah, it does all that clears the sixteen and
Speaker 1: a half everybody comfortably. I just want to put that
Speaker 1: out there also comfortable. Well my run of picking the
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks in the last month, oh baby, guess what.
Speaker 1: They are underdogs again, this time at home to the
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers. Andrew Erickson has taught me something this
Speaker 1: year in twenty twenty four. Anybody that plays the Detroit
Speaker 1: Lions the next week is not good.
Speaker 2: It's not good, yeps.
Speaker 1: The hangover is And it's the Green Bay Packers this week,
Speaker 1: going on the road into Seattle. And look, I know
Speaker 1: the twelfth Man used to be a thing. It's been
Speaker 1: a while since the Seahawks fans had a lot to
Speaker 1: cheer about. They've got a team in first place. It
Speaker 1: feels like a moment for them to really get up
Speaker 1: for this game. It's gonna be a standalone prime time night.
Speaker 1: You're gonna have your Seahawks fans ready to go, and
Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be energy in the building.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: The Packers are a good team, they know it. The
Speaker 1: Seahawks continue to find ways to create turnovers, and those
Speaker 1: turnovers create havoc in the momentum of these games, and
Speaker 1: it swings back to the Seahawks every time. They keep
Speaker 1: doing it, and they keep getting w's, and I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna get another w here this weekend. So give
Speaker 1: me the Seattle Seahawks plus one thirty eight on the
Speaker 1: money line. Let's go to do it again. And that's
Speaker 1: not only the upset special of the week, and it's
Speaker 1: in the parlay of the week.
Speaker 3: Two.
Speaker 1: Give me the Seattle Seahawks on the money line. Give
Speaker 1: me the Ravens on the money line, because I mean,
Speaker 1: where's that guy who bet three million dollars last week?
Speaker 1: This is the game to bet it on. And give
Speaker 1: me the case he has the City Chiefs on the
Speaker 1: money line against the Browns. I know it's on the road.
Speaker 1: I know it's a little dangerous. I don't care. Chiefs
Speaker 1: always find a way to win games. That's what they do.
Speaker 1: Put those three things together, get plus two to seventy one.
Speaker 1: That's hardly the way.
Speaker 2: The price was without the Ravens money line. Because that's
Speaker 2: like minus fit seed.
Speaker 1: It was like two seventy and then moving to seventy one. No,
Speaker 1: it was it was close, it was in there. But again,
Speaker 1: I want to make an easy one. I want to
Speaker 1: take my upset special every week betting the Seahawks, like
Speaker 1: I've been talking about on this show, every single week
Speaker 1: and every single week is coming through. And you put
Speaker 1: all these confluence of events together, I think it's a
Speaker 1: really good situation here for the Seattle Seahawks. So and
Speaker 1: I'll take the two sure things that I feel like
Speaker 1: should be chiefs. Don't let me down. Don't let this
Speaker 1: be the letdown. Please. All right, that'll do it for us,
Speaker 1: But the story of the game goes on for Terrell
Speaker 1: Furman Junior and the Undertaker Andrew Erickson. Have a great
Speaker 1: week fifteen. We'll see you next time. Kids. Thanks for
Speaker 1: listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,
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