WEBVTT - Best NFL Bets for Week 15 | Top Picks and Predictions (Ep. 619) 0:00:01.040 --> 0:00:03.160 Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 0:00:03.240 --> 0:00:05.720 your bets. It is be Joey p joe Pisapia and 0:00:05.760 --> 0:00:08.879 this is BP NFL. We're looking at the best bets 0:00:08.880 --> 0:00:11.880 for week fifteen. All the teams are back playing, and 0:00:11.960 --> 0:00:15.720 all the best players are back here as well. Andrew Ericson, 0:00:15.800 --> 0:00:17.759 Terrell Furman Junior here to help you with the best 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:20.239 bets for the week. Should be a fun one. We've 0:00:20.239 --> 0:00:23.520 got some lines that are well, pretty large if you're 0:00:23.520 --> 0:00:25.599 looking at say the Giants and Ravens. You've got some 0:00:25.640 --> 0:00:28.000 ones that are pretty tight and some that I think 0:00:28.040 --> 0:00:30.720 are just flat out wrong. And we'll get to all 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:32.239 of them. Baby, We're gonna get to all of them. 0:00:32.240 --> 0:00:34.320 Before we do. Just a quick reminder, don't forget to 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:37.080 download the Betting Pros app sink your sportsbooks for free 0:00:37.360 --> 0:00:39.920 and utilize all the tools, including a couple free days 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:43.240 of the premium tools that we have available. So dip 0:00:43.280 --> 0:00:46.440 your toes in the water of wagering. That's nice alliteration. 0:00:46.560 --> 0:00:48.919 Actually I'm gonna keep that for some other shows. And 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.680 of course don't forget to check out all the VP 0:00:51.840 --> 0:00:53.800 interactive tools that you could find out there. To help 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:57.680 you start betting smarter, not harder. Gentlemen's Week fifteen. We've 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:00.640 got some playoff field kind of games going on here, 0:01:00.800 --> 0:01:04.080 but I want to start here with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Becauseterrell. 0:01:04.160 --> 0:01:07.679 You always say it, it's always Mike Tomlin as an underdog. 0:01:07.720 --> 0:01:09.880 You love Mike Tomlin as an underdog. He's on the road. 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:12.560 It's plus five and a half. But no George Pickens 0:01:12.800 --> 0:01:16.000 gives me pause. Make me feel better about the Steelers 0:01:16.040 --> 0:01:17.119 versus the Eagles this week. 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:21.160 No Pickens, no problem. It doesn't matter. Tomlin has gone 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.520 out there in won games with the way worse staffs. 0:01:24.840 --> 0:01:27.759 This is all you need. All you need is Mike Tomlin. 0:01:27.880 --> 0:01:30.319 You need him to be an underdog, and you need CJ. Watt. 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:32.440 As long as you have those three things, you are 0:01:32.520 --> 0:01:35.440 always good. It doesn't matter what else who else is 0:01:35.480 --> 0:01:38.720 out there. We've seen Duck Hodges, We've seen Mason Rudolph 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:40.680 can't even beat Will Levis for the starting job. And 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:43.080 Will Levis is throwing to the other team. He's throwing 0:01:43.080 --> 0:01:44.560 to the other team, and he can't beat him for 0:01:44.600 --> 0:01:48.680 the starting job because Tomlin made him better. It doesn't matter. 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:53.440 He's reinvigorated Russ and Russ actually is Russ not corny anymore? 0:01:54.000 --> 0:01:57.120 I mean, Russ is going out here, they're beating the Commanders. 0:01:57.120 --> 0:02:02.840 He's doing the Antonio Brown dance, and like, this team 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:05.200 is different. Look at hard knocks. Look how this team 0:02:05.200 --> 0:02:07.960 gets behind them. How do you feed this Tomlin team? 0:02:08.160 --> 0:02:10.519 They are completely locked in. And I think this is 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.440 another spot where, hey, they're looking at this Philadelphia Eagles team. 0:02:13.480 --> 0:02:15.840 It's a little crosstown rivalry here. It's going to be 0:02:15.880 --> 0:02:18.440 a lot of people at the game. Steelers Nation is 0:02:18.480 --> 0:02:20.960 going to be everywhere. I think that it's a fifty 0:02:20.960 --> 0:02:24.160 to fifty split in the crowd. And this Eagles team 0:02:24.240 --> 0:02:26.760 just has a bunch of turmoil going on on the inside. 0:02:26.760 --> 0:02:29.200 They're trying to figure out why they're not better, why 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:31.120 are they not covering these lines. If you look at 0:02:31.120 --> 0:02:33.359 the Eagles this season as a home favorite of more 0:02:33.400 --> 0:02:36.079 than three and a half points, they're one in four ats. 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:38.760 They cannot handle business when they're supposed to handle business. 0:02:38.800 --> 0:02:40.600 And so I think this is a spot where I'm 0:02:40.639 --> 0:02:43.880 fading them. I'm trusting the system. I'm trusting the system. 0:02:43.880 --> 0:02:46.359 I'm trusting the system. Tomlin as a dog you taking 0:02:46.400 --> 0:02:46.920 no matter. 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:48.239 What I mean, I think five and a half is 0:02:48.320 --> 0:02:50.200 too many points. Plus five and a half, that's the 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:52.280 number that we're getting with Mike Tomlin on the road 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.640 as an underdog, which you should just basically take them 0:02:54.639 --> 0:02:56.040 on the money line right at this point. They just 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:58.000 based on his track record eight and six on the 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:00.600 road against the spread money line, they're eight and six 0:03:00.639 --> 0:03:03.239 on the road. So I mean, if you really want 0:03:03.320 --> 0:03:05.560 a fat pay day, you're just looking at Steelers went 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.760 out right because they've done this act before. When the 0:03:07.919 --> 0:03:10.440 backs against the wall, Oh they don't have George Pickens, Well, 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:12.040 I mean George Pickens was gonna have a tough match 0:03:12.080 --> 0:03:14.600 up anyway. And if anything, I was impressed a lot 0:03:14.600 --> 0:03:16.799 by what I saw from Mike Williams last week. He's 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.400 getting more integrated into this offense. It just takes one 0:03:19.400 --> 0:03:22.480 moon ball from h Russell Wilson to kind of change 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:26.760 the tides of the game. Williams like Big Mike, and 0:03:26.760 --> 0:03:29.240 the thing with Big Mike and why I'm not like 0:03:29.400 --> 0:03:32.119 overly concerned about Oh well, it's like tough cornerbacks Erickson. Well, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:34.920 Mike Williams is gonna be covered anyway. Like he's not 0:03:35.000 --> 0:03:37.480 a separator, but he can just go up and snag 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:39.680 the ball in the air. So that's why I like 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.040 Mike Williams is kind of like an underrated X factor 0:03:42.320 --> 0:03:44.280 in this matchup. I know, Joe, you talked about earlier 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:46.320 in some shows about maybe a little bit more justin 0:03:46.360 --> 0:03:48.840 fields in this game. How do the Eagles respond to 0:03:48.920 --> 0:03:52.600 that type of offensive wrinkle? And Mike Thomas gotta be 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:56.720 loving all this AJ Brown, This Jalen Hurts that he's 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.320 gonna take advantage of that because you know that they're 0:03:59.320 --> 0:04:02.080 gonna try to force targets to AJ Brown and the 0:04:02.080 --> 0:04:04.640 Steelers are gonna sit on that pick six. That's what 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:06.600 they're gonna do. I mean, Jalen Hurts is gonna throw 0:04:06.640 --> 0:04:09.400 more attempts than he should in this game because the 0:04:09.440 --> 0:04:11.600 Eagles have a narrative to set. Oh no, we do 0:04:11.800 --> 0:04:14.160 like our receivers. We do throw the ball and what's 0:04:14.200 --> 0:04:16.880 gonna happen is that's gonna give more opportunities for TJ. Watt. 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:19.919 This is such a psychological matchup where it plays so 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:23.000 much into the Steelers, where the Eagles are just so 0:04:23.040 --> 0:04:25.359 stuck inside their own minds right now that they're not 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:27.400 even focused on winning the game like they're focused on it. 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.240 We gotta keep our players happy this and that. I 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.080 think the Steelers are gonna take full advantage. So plus 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.200 five and a half and like Treel Furman always says, 0:04:33.720 --> 0:04:35.800 sprint going on the money line those dogs. 0:04:36.000 --> 0:04:39.640 Yes, you're getting plus two hundred on the money line. 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:39.960 I see. 0:04:39.960 --> 0:04:42.880 And yesterday I did bring up on the live if 0:04:42.880 --> 0:04:45.320 you missed it. If you missed it, you can go 0:04:45.360 --> 0:04:47.040 back and watch on the YouTube channel. But we did 0:04:47.040 --> 0:04:50.279 the livestream now on Wednesdays at three pm Eastern, so 0:04:50.279 --> 0:04:52.200 when you ring your belt notifications, you won't miss it. 0:04:52.240 --> 0:04:53.760 But if you did, we talked about it yesterday and 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:55.560 I brought up maybe you do see some packages with 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:57.400 justin fields. If you don't have you know, Pickens on 0:04:57.400 --> 0:04:59.120 the field, maybe you're gonna see a little bit more, 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:01.960 you know, cleverness, try to throw the Eagles off their 0:05:01.960 --> 0:05:03.200 game a little bit, especially when you get in the 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:04.920 red zone. I could see that also, like the over 0:05:05.000 --> 0:05:06.960 on Friarmouth Props this week too. More on that in 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:08.800 the show tomorrow we'll talk about. Let's get to the 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:10.440 next game on the list here, Terrell, you like the 0:05:10.480 --> 0:05:13.440 Bengals at minus five now the Bengals are going against 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.839 Tennessee Titans. Defensively, again, they have been respectable most of 0:05:17.880 --> 0:05:19.599 the year. I know the number for this game is 0:05:19.640 --> 0:05:22.000 forty six, but let's talk about the Bengals here. Do 0:05:22.040 --> 0:05:24.320 you why are you confident in this minus five because 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:28.120 that defense continues against any offense really to be a liability. 0:05:28.600 --> 0:05:31.479 I know the Tennessee offense is worse than most, but 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:34.080 we've seen lesser offenses go up there and still put 0:05:34.160 --> 0:05:35.839 up points against the Bengals regardless. 0:05:36.240 --> 0:05:38.720 Yeah, I mean, shoot, the twenty points to the Cowboys 0:05:38.800 --> 0:05:42.919 was not impressive for that defense and giving up that 0:05:43.000 --> 0:05:44.640 to Cooper Rush and how they were able to move 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:48.080 the football. But I think that nonetheless Joe Burrown, this 0:05:48.160 --> 0:05:50.479 offense is going to score points like that is going 0:05:50.520 --> 0:05:53.120 to happen, and if you're not able to match them, 0:05:53.440 --> 0:05:56.720 regardless of how bad the defense is. I just think 0:05:56.760 --> 0:05:59.440 that will Levis turns the ball over way too much, 0:05:59.600 --> 0:06:02.680 very unprotected with the football. Even if it's not Will Levis. 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:04.800 Even if Will Levis is out of the game for 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.479 some reason and it's now Mason Rudolph, he still has 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:09.880 the same problem with The Titans are horrible on special 0:06:09.920 --> 0:06:12.720 teams they give up, block punts, block field goals, all 0:06:12.760 --> 0:06:14.560 this other stuff. So you have a third aspect of 0:06:14.600 --> 0:06:17.000 the game that I think the Cincinnati Bengals are gonna 0:06:17.000 --> 0:06:20.000 take advantage of because they're a desperate team. Every single 0:06:20.040 --> 0:06:22.760 game they're playing for their lives. You only have a 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:24.719 shot at the playoffs if you're nine to eight. You 0:06:24.760 --> 0:06:27.440 can't take a ninth loss. So this team thinks that 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:31.039 they're relatively there. Joe Burrow is shaking up about his 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:33.560 home getting broken into. I think that's gonna turn out 0:06:33.560 --> 0:06:36.560 on the field as well, like I and See Higgins. 0:06:36.680 --> 0:06:39.239 See Higgins is unhappy, and that's Joe Burrow's guy. Still, 0:06:39.320 --> 0:06:41.040 Like he's gonna go feed him the ball, like I 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:44.800 think he's gonna continue to get his pass catchers the football, 0:06:45.160 --> 0:06:47.840 and they're gonna be really, really good. And they've been 0:06:47.839 --> 0:06:51.119 scoring on everybody, like everybody as a blake. They've been scoring. 0:06:51.160 --> 0:06:52.760 It's just the defense has been given up a bunch 0:06:52.760 --> 0:06:56.120 of points. And I'm just gonna I'm good fading Will Levis. 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.479 Will Levis can prove it to me this is a 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:00.920 complete one eighty from week one, Will Levis, you can 0:07:00.960 --> 0:07:03.120 prove it to me. I love the Bengals here laying 0:07:03.160 --> 0:07:05.560 the points they covered against the Cowboys, and I think 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:07.720 it can be the exact same game script where maybe 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.080 this is a tighter game for a couple of quarters, 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:11.800 but when it comes down to the end, they make 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:13.960 the right play, get a touchdown, and we get to cover. 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:17.000 The last time the Carolina Panthers were a favorite in 0:07:17.040 --> 0:07:20.680 the game, it was December eighteenth, twenty twenty two. That's 0:07:21.240 --> 0:07:24.520 two years ago, just almost to the date. So this 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:27.360 week against the Dallas Cowboys they are That is an 0:07:27.360 --> 0:07:30.440 incredible thing here to sit here and have this evolution 0:07:31.000 --> 0:07:35.200 of or evolution of the Carolina Panthers and de evolution 0:07:35.520 --> 0:07:39.920 of the Dallas Cowboys, and here we are ericson not 0:07:40.000 --> 0:07:43.120 only are you confident that the Panthers will win, but 0:07:43.160 --> 0:07:45.119 you're confident they're going to cover this two and a half? 0:07:45.360 --> 0:07:47.000 I am, and I thought you were going to open 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:49.760 that little line with Carolina about all right, quiz time, 0:07:49.800 --> 0:07:52.160 who was the quarterback of the Carolina Panthers in twenty 0:07:52.200 --> 0:07:55.000 twenty two when they were favored? If I had guess 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:56.000 what I mean? 0:07:56.040 --> 0:07:56.080 So? 0:07:56.240 --> 0:07:59.680 Was he there some rendition of Sam Darnold Baker Mayfield? Maybe? 0:08:00.120 --> 0:08:02.040 But you said it was in December, so I don't know. 0:08:02.680 --> 0:08:04.680 Who have Steelers. 0:08:05.040 --> 0:08:06.840 Oh, so it must have been against like what's the 0:08:06.880 --> 0:08:07.880 space Duck Hodges. 0:08:08.560 --> 0:08:12.160 Well, guess what, I know they didn't cover that game, quarterback. 0:08:12.480 --> 0:08:14.600 But I know for a fact they didn't cover the game. 0:08:14.880 --> 0:08:17.520 I don't even Oh, I could tell you right now 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:18.040 they did not. 0:08:18.160 --> 0:08:22.280 Okay, so again, you said de evolution of Dallas Cowboys. 0:08:22.320 --> 0:08:24.560 I think you meant to say destruction of the Dallas 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.800 Cowboys because that's kind of that's kind of what we're 0:08:26.800 --> 0:08:28.680 seeing here with Dallas. 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.320 Look like, by the way, Pittsburgh Steelers won twenty four 0:08:31.320 --> 0:08:34.880 to sixteen. I found it right, Yes it was and Sam. 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:40.760 This quarterback? Wow, anyway, it was a plus five and a half, folks. 0:08:40.760 --> 0:08:42.240 I mean, if you don't need any more evidence than that, 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:44.959 man Mitchell Trubisky on the road. 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:46.120 Oh my god. 0:08:46.280 --> 0:08:49.319 All right, so right down, obviously the massive turnaround. They 0:08:49.320 --> 0:08:51.200 are five and oh against the spread over their last 0:08:51.240 --> 0:08:54.439 five games. They're two and oh straight up against teams 0:08:54.440 --> 0:08:56.079 with losing records. So the only reason they haven't won 0:08:56.080 --> 0:08:57.960 any of these games over the last two weeks because 0:08:58.000 --> 0:08:59.760 these have actually been good teams that they've gone up 0:08:59.760 --> 0:09:02.480 again but they've covered the spread with ease. They should 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.440 have won. I think a lot of these games I 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:06.160 don't need you guys to be convinced of that. And 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:08.520 now they're getting Dallas on a short week. We know 0:09:08.640 --> 0:09:11.200 Dallas is bad. It took the Giants for them to 0:09:11.200 --> 0:09:13.679 finally win a home game, the New York Giants, who 0:09:13.679 --> 0:09:16.880 are currently sixteen and a half point underdogs and counting 0:09:17.160 --> 0:09:19.559 with Tommy DeVito as a quarterback at home against the 0:09:19.559 --> 0:09:22.360 Baltimore Ravens. I just think that doubt like this is 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:24.600 the spot, like this is where everything kind of comes 0:09:24.640 --> 0:09:27.520 to a head. With Carolina, we've seen the improved play, 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.640 it hasn't translated into wins, but now finally it's going 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:33.480 to get them a w against the Dallas Cowboys team 0:09:33.520 --> 0:09:36.360 that again, it's not a good team overall. Yes, they 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:38.959 put another linebacker on into preserve Overshaw is going to 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:40.200 be out for the rest of the season. Yes, they 0:09:40.240 --> 0:09:43.000 have Micaeh Parsons. That's the one factor of their defense 0:09:43.000 --> 0:09:45.600 that maybe we're concerned about. But the thing that's impressed 0:09:45.640 --> 0:09:47.560 me the most about Bryce Young is we're seeing that 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:50.360 offscript playmaking ability that we saw at Alabama. So even 0:09:50.360 --> 0:09:52.760 if he is getting pressure from Micah Parsons from this 0:09:52.800 --> 0:09:55.640 pass rush from Dallas. Well, he's shown the last five 0:09:55.640 --> 0:09:58.120 weeks that he can deliver. He can deliver those plays 0:09:58.200 --> 0:10:00.240 on the room, on the move, when he's scrambling, when 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:01.920 he's making plays. That's why I love his rushing prop 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:03.840 this week. He's going to be the reason to win 0:10:04.080 --> 0:10:07.000 for the Carolina Panthers this week. So dare I say 0:10:07.000 --> 0:10:11.080 the Cardiac Cats are back? Yes, they are, Carolina min 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:11.760 two and a half. 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:13.760 We've got a huge game coming up this week too, 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:15.520 could be a Super Bowl preview. We're going to talk 0:10:15.559 --> 0:10:17.360 about that one next Before we do, just a quick 0:10:17.400 --> 0:10:20.480 reminder make sure you join our discord Bettingpros dot com 0:10:20.480 --> 0:10:22.760 slash Chat. It's a great way for you to interact 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.320 with our betting community and of course get expert picks. 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:27.880 So Bettingpros dot Com slash Chat it's free, it's fun. 0:10:28.160 --> 0:10:30.040 We want you to be part of our ever growing 0:10:30.120 --> 0:10:34.200 discord community. Joined today and don't forget when you download 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:37.520 that VP app join our contest to Bettingpros dot Com 0:10:37.520 --> 0:10:40.200 slash NFL contest. It's available for you if you have 0:10:40.240 --> 0:10:43.200 the app. Just go right to the groups there and 0:10:43.240 --> 0:10:45.120 you could join that way, or you could just go 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:47.600 to Betting pros dot com slash NFL contest. It's free. 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:49.880 You don't have to do anything, make picks with the 0:10:49.960 --> 0:10:52.840 quick Pick feature on BP and you don't even have 0:10:52.880 --> 0:10:54.400 to make bets. You just have to make picks. So 0:10:54.440 --> 0:10:56.400 if you can't make wagers in the state you live 0:10:56.440 --> 0:10:59.920 in for very depressing reasons, don't worry. You could still 0:11:00.120 --> 0:11:01.600 have some fun, pick some games and win some free 0:11:01.600 --> 0:11:04.200 stuff because we're doing weekly and monthly prizes for that 0:11:04.360 --> 0:11:06.880 as well. All right, gentlemen, let's get to the big 0:11:06.920 --> 0:11:09.760 one here. We've got Buffalo, We've got Detroit. I am 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:11.840 fascinated to see where you guys land on this one. 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:15.040 It's gonna be in Detroit, so obviously scoring could be 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:17.400 a bonanza. Terrell Ferman and start with you. What's your 0:11:17.440 --> 0:11:20.040 take on Detroit Buffalo? What is the best bet for 0:11:20.080 --> 0:11:21.040 the biggest game of the week. 0:11:21.440 --> 0:11:24.160 Yeah, simple and easy for me. Let's lay the two 0:11:24.160 --> 0:11:25.760 and a half here with the Lions. I think the 0:11:25.800 --> 0:11:28.480 Lions go ahead and get this done against the Buffalo Bills. 0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:32.400 I can't first of all, quick little mini rare, I 0:11:32.480 --> 0:11:36.520 cannot fathom how you can lose a game and people 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:38.760 can say you locked up the MVP and a loss, 0:11:39.400 --> 0:11:42.680 because when Lamar Jackson loses, that is the reason why 0:11:42.679 --> 0:11:45.840 they say, oh, we cannot give him MVP. Lamar Jackson 0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:49.320 has more passing yards, more passing touchdowns. He has beaten 0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:52.720 Josh Allen head to head, and Josh Allen couldn't score 0:11:52.720 --> 0:11:54.880 the football at all. Not saying Josh Allen is not 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:57.600 a great quarterback. He's having an amazing season. But how 0:11:57.600 --> 0:11:59.640 do you lock up the MVP on a loss? And 0:11:59.679 --> 0:12:02.120 I think this is gonna be the spot where they're like, Okay, 0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:04.840 they take the loss, and everybody's like, the Bills are 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:06.880 gonna bounce back in this game. They're gonna try to 0:12:06.960 --> 0:12:10.680 keep a spitting distance of the Chiefs, and they're forgetting 0:12:11.120 --> 0:12:14.959 that this Lions team has a horseshoe up their ass. 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:20.160 There is something good about this Lions team where they constantly, constantly, 0:12:20.200 --> 0:12:22.800 constantly find ways to win games. And at this point, 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:26.720 I'm not fading it no way. I saw this Jared 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:29.160 Goff throw five interceptions and this team still win the game. 0:12:29.720 --> 0:12:32.040 I saw that with my eyes. I saw him throw 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:34.640 five interceptions and still within the game. There's something there, 0:12:34.800 --> 0:12:38.000 we've seen Caleb Williams and he gotta coach fire. This 0:12:38.040 --> 0:12:40.160 Lions team gotta coach fire because he was in act. 0:12:40.240 --> 0:12:42.120 He couldn't beat this Lions team because he just went 0:12:42.160 --> 0:12:44.800 there and didn't even use the timeout and eber flew. 0:12:44.960 --> 0:12:47.120 So how do you beat the Bills? You beat the 0:12:47.120 --> 0:12:49.360 Bills by running the football. Well, what do the Lions 0:12:49.400 --> 0:12:52.439 do really really really well? David Montgomery and Jamier Gibbs. 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:54.320 I think both of them aren't gonna have amazing days. 0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:56.000 Jered Goff is not gonna have to do a lot 0:12:56.040 --> 0:12:58.440 of work here. This is gonna be the stereotypical Lions 0:12:58.440 --> 0:13:01.000 game this season where they dominate on the ground. Jared 0:13:01.000 --> 0:13:03.440 Golf doesn't give you this all world performance, but you 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:05.160 look at the score and you're like, oh wow, they 0:13:05.200 --> 0:13:08.120 came out with the win. Again. The defenses lied. They're 0:13:08.120 --> 0:13:12.320 flying around, and I really really credit the defense with 0:13:12.360 --> 0:13:14.960 all the injuries that they have to still be able 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.480 to put together a unit that can be competent every 0:13:17.520 --> 0:13:21.280 single given week. So I think that we could see 0:13:21.280 --> 0:13:25.080 some scoring here, and I think that here we have 0:13:25.280 --> 0:13:28.040 a spot where this run game just dominates time and 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:30.920 possession for the Lions and they're able to squeak out 0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.360 of this with the win. Is this going to be 0:13:32.360 --> 0:13:35.160 a big blowout win. I don't think so. But one 0:13:35.200 --> 0:13:37.760 to ten win by the Lions absolutely, and I think 0:13:37.760 --> 0:13:40.040 they get it by three or more. Gimme Lions laying 0:13:40.040 --> 0:13:40.960 two and a half. 0:13:41.120 --> 0:13:43.120 I think the only counter argument. And I like what 0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:45.000 you're saying too about the MVP race too. If Josh 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.840 Allen keeps losing games, has becomes kind of tricky, especially 0:13:47.840 --> 0:13:49.880 if you're saying, well, Lamar loses games, so he's out 0:13:49.880 --> 0:13:52.320 of it. I think the difference is Lamar's lost enough 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.960 games here so far at least where the division is 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.560 slightly out of reach for them, not completely, but slightly, 0:13:59.280 --> 0:14:01.679 especially after this week. If the Steelers win again, it 0:14:01.679 --> 0:14:04.840 gets even tighter. So that's the only thing is, Yeah, 0:14:04.920 --> 0:14:07.240 the East is easy. Yeah they're dominating their division, but 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:09.439 they're gonna win their division and they still have a 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:12.520 shot even if they lose this week, to still make 0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:13.920 a run at that one seed two in the next 0:14:13.960 --> 0:14:16.280 couple weeks. Again, I think I think that's the only thing. 0:14:16.320 --> 0:14:18.360 And this game is if this game was Week seventeen, 0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:20.400 I think would stick in people's minds just a little 0:14:20.440 --> 0:14:22.280 bit more, but the fact of this week fifteen is 0:14:22.280 --> 0:14:24.880 still a little bit of time. And also there's just 0:14:24.880 --> 0:14:27.640 that narrative of the fatigue of Lamar Jackson, which isn't right, 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:31.880 but it's reality where they just get sick of voting 0:14:31.920 --> 0:14:33.720 for the same guy over and over again in the media, 0:14:33.760 --> 0:14:35.600 and that is just what happens. I get sick of 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:37.560 my homes and againstick of Lamar, and then they'll love 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:39.200 Josh Allen to get sick at him and they want 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:43.360 to go start, you know, dropping bo Nick's MVP stuff 0:14:43.360 --> 0:14:45.480 in there. All right, let's get your take on this game. 0:14:45.560 --> 0:14:48.920 So Andrew dare I even have to ask where you're going. 0:14:48.960 --> 0:14:52.320 I mean, you love to talk about this game. He's 0:14:52.360 --> 0:14:54.720 the undertaker, but this is also the cores field, as 0:14:54.720 --> 0:14:56.760 he loves to tell us every week of the NFL. 0:14:57.200 --> 0:15:00.440 So I gotta imagine, with all these weapons here and 0:15:00.480 --> 0:15:02.800 now all these quarterbacks that are playing so well, that 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:04.280 you're going to take the over in this one. 0:15:04.440 --> 0:15:08.040 Yep, over Lions Bills fifty four and a half points. Yes, 0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:11.120 it is a massive number. It's actually the highest projected 0:15:11.160 --> 0:15:14.080 total that we've seen in the NFL this season. But 0:15:14.200 --> 0:15:16.960 keep in mind fifty four and a half points is 0:15:17.000 --> 0:15:21.040 the average, not the projected total, the average of resulting 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.160 games played in Detroit over the last three plus seasons. 0:15:24.720 --> 0:15:27.440 So we're hitting this number fifty percent of the time 0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:30.600 on average. So and that's not considering the matchup that 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:33.120 we have against Obviously, I don't need convincing about. We 0:15:33.160 --> 0:15:35.520 have two explosive offenses that can move the ball at will. 0:15:35.880 --> 0:15:37.880 For I'm just talked about Detroit. They're going to score. 0:15:37.880 --> 0:15:40.320 They score against literally everybody. You have Josh Allen who 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:43.240 scored six touchdowns last week, he might score six touchdowns 0:15:43.240 --> 0:15:45.160 again in a losing effort. I don't know, but I 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:46.760 don't really care who wins this game, because all I 0:15:46.800 --> 0:15:49.520 know this are gonna be points. And even when you 0:15:49.560 --> 0:15:52.960 look at just this season, Lions games on average are 0:15:53.200 --> 0:15:55.840 hitting fifty five points per game at home. The last 0:15:55.960 --> 0:15:58.360 five home games for the Lions have seen four go 0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:01.440 for fifty eight or more points sixty one point average. 0:16:01.480 --> 0:16:04.560 So I understand that there might be hesitants about well, this, 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:06.480 this this number is so big, there's no value, there's 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:09.640 no virus, like, maybe there's no value, but it's gonna hit. 0:16:09.680 --> 0:16:12.000 It's kind of good. But it's gonna go over the totals. 0:16:12.360 --> 0:16:14.080 And there's I think there's a need for the Buffalo 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:17.200 Bills after last week that you know they feel, man, 0:16:17.200 --> 0:16:19.720 we really you know should have been should have had 0:16:19.720 --> 0:16:21.680 that game. You know, we should have beaten a Rams team. 0:16:21.720 --> 0:16:24.280 But you know that's you get caught that trap week 0:16:24.320 --> 0:16:27.080 in between. And I think there's a not desperation, but 0:16:27.120 --> 0:16:29.560 a little bit of motivation here where like Buffalo is like, Okay, look, 0:16:29.600 --> 0:16:31.480 this is this is our new measuring stick because everybody 0:16:31.480 --> 0:16:32.680 thinks the line is the best even in the NFL. 0:16:32.680 --> 0:16:34.640 Is how good are we? And I feel like Josh 0:16:34.640 --> 0:16:36.160 Allen w lance for that Bill, don't you? 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:39.160 I do? And I think that from a mindset perspective, 0:16:39.200 --> 0:16:41.520 you know, both teams are going coaching into this game. 0:16:41.800 --> 0:16:44.880 Do you think the Bills are even considering punting at 0:16:44.920 --> 0:16:47.800 any point? Like they're they're on their own forty yard? 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.040 But I'm like, well, we got to go for it 0:16:49.040 --> 0:16:51.640 because you know Dan Campbell's going for it. So I 0:16:51.680 --> 0:16:52.320 just think he's. 0:16:52.200 --> 0:16:53.800 Got to get that out of a system too, Dude, 0:16:53.840 --> 0:16:55.800 I I am. I mean, when you get the playoffs, 0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:57.760 you gotta stop doing that crap. It's gonna kill you. 0:16:57.920 --> 0:16:59.360 I mean, it's just going to no. 0:16:59.440 --> 0:17:01.320 Yeah, oh, that's gonna be the reason they don't win 0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:04.919 a super Bowl, regardless of whether it happens in the 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:08.080 Divisional round, or whether it happens in the Conference championship, 0:17:08.119 --> 0:17:11.000 or whether it happens in the super Bowl Bowl prediction. Here. 0:17:11.040 --> 0:17:13.240 You heard it right here, right now. The reason the 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:15.840 Lions get knocked out of the playoffs is because they 0:17:15.880 --> 0:17:18.080 go for it randomly on fourth down in a game 0:17:18.119 --> 0:17:20.520