Speaker 1: Hello everybody, Happy Friday. We have an amazing Friday Points
Speaker 1: show for all of you, a little bit of election coverage.
Speaker 1: I know you didn't have enough election coverage, you haven't
Speaker 1: had enough discussion of the polls. But what you actually
Speaker 1: have not had enough in your life is the four
Speaker 1: of us all together. So this is a real preview
Speaker 1: of what is to come. Andy, Ryan and Emily are
Speaker 1: going to give some predictions that'll be fun. Chris and
Speaker 1: I will preview a little bit of what we're going
Speaker 1: to talk about. We've got what do we have on deck?
Speaker 1: We have polls. We're going to like Trump and Cheney.
Speaker 2: That's great. Well, I was just going to say it's
Speaker 2: sort of funny because the way the first block is
Speaker 2: set up, it's a clip of Nate Silver being like,
Speaker 2: all these poles are bullshit, and then us proceeding to
Speaker 2: show you every pole that exists at this point. So
Speaker 2: that game we're going to do that. We're also, yeah,
Speaker 2: Trump making some waves with some new comments about Loz Jeney.
Speaker 2: We'll show you those and her response and all of that.
Speaker 2: And then Jadie Vance on Joe Rogan. We got a
Speaker 2: couple of clips from that that we can share with
Speaker 2: you too, So yeah, let's go ahead and jump into
Speaker 2: it before I show the Nate silver clip. We aren't
Speaker 2: going to have Ryan and Emily on air again, I
Speaker 2: don't think until election night when we're all doing our
Speaker 2: live stream together in studio. So I wanted to give
Speaker 2: you guys a chance for like your sort of polls
Speaker 2: are all basically tied. It's a coin flip, so it's
Speaker 2: just down to everybody's gut check of what they think
Speaker 2: is going on, or reading of various tea leaves. So
Speaker 2: what what do you guys think? Emily, which way are
Speaker 2: you leaning at this point?
Speaker 3: Thank you for starting with me and put you on
Speaker 3: the spot so.
Speaker 4: Eager to make this prediction. No, I mean, I've actually
Speaker 4: always had a feeling that Democrats just have a better
Speaker 4: chance in this election because the right underestimates how unpopular
Speaker 4: Donald Trump is.
Speaker 3: What I'm hearing from sources is.
Speaker 4: That he's not making gains in the suburbs, but he
Speaker 4: is making gains in rural areas. Some of them are
Speaker 4: really excited about those big gains in roll areas, which
Speaker 4: sounds interesting in twenty twenty four, almost a decade into
Speaker 4: the Trump phenomena. But they're just it's a numbers game, right,
Speaker 4: Like there aren't as many roal voters as there are
Speaker 4: suburban voters, and as horrible of a campaign as I
Speaker 4: think Kamala Harris's run, especially in the closing three weeks.
Speaker 4: She's kind of gotten it together this week. But as
Speaker 4: horrible as of a race, I think she's one. I mean,
Speaker 4: I think anybody. I think it's anybody's guests. I think
Speaker 4: we're all on the same page about that. But if
Speaker 4: somebody put a gun to my head, I would probably.
Speaker 1: Say, but I'm gonna up the stakes. It's not even
Speaker 1: just gun to your head. Give us each state. What
Speaker 1: do you think?
Speaker 2: Oh, that's brtal.
Speaker 1: Come on, you gotta call you make a call to
Speaker 1: do it. You gotta make a call.
Speaker 3: Make it back on.
Speaker 1: You like my white face.
Speaker 2: Cultural appropriations?
Speaker 4: Well, okay, so I think the I think Kamala Harris
Speaker 4: will will win Wisconsin. I think she'll win Michigan. I
Speaker 4: think Trump will win Pennsylvania. And I think Kamala's route
Speaker 4: if she wins, we'll be through the sun Belt.
Speaker 1: Wow.
Speaker 2: Really, so like North Carolina and Nevada.
Speaker 1: Is going to say she'd have to do some upset there. Okay,
Speaker 1: Interesting you and I are thinking similarly, but in a
Speaker 1: different direction, right, Ryan, what you got?
Speaker 5: I feel like this is that kind of election where
Speaker 5: afterwards it will look so obvious in hindsight.
Speaker 1: It always does.
Speaker 5: Who wins well obviously this is That's why that happened.
Speaker 5: But at this point, god, who knows, since I have
Speaker 5: to pick, I think that Kamala ends up holding Pennsylvania, Michigan,
Speaker 5: in Wisconsin and losing basically everything else.
Speaker 1: Got it eight? Yeah?
Speaker 5: Yeah, that would give her exactly to seventy right, yeah.
Speaker 2: As long as she wins that one Nebraska congressional which
Speaker 2: looks I mean, the polling there is actually looked very
Speaker 2: strong for her.
Speaker 5: So and then, oh man, the public will be so
Speaker 5: mad at that one state senator.
Speaker 2: Oh my god, that guy needs to change his name
Speaker 2: is address for the state?
Speaker 1: Luck.
Speaker 4: I was just.
Speaker 1: Political shifted that district to lean not I think lean
Speaker 1: DEM from toss up. So they're projected that he's going
Speaker 1: to lose his seat the Republican who does hold that district,
Speaker 1: which is pretty interesting. That was a strong sign in
Speaker 1: terms of Nebraska too.
Speaker 2: Ryan, if it does, if it does work out like
Speaker 2: you're saying, like the two seventy six eight, where she
Speaker 2: wins through the quote unquote blue wall states, Like, what
Speaker 2: do you think will have happened there? Strength of suburban
Speaker 2: women or what are.
Speaker 5: You Yeah, basically suburban women. And you know, Democrats are
Speaker 5: still getting like, you know, high eighties with the black vote,
Speaker 5: and so even though they're bottoming it out in rural
Speaker 5: areas like the suburb. You know, if you have the suburbs,
Speaker 5: if you're winning the suburbs and you're winning the cities,
Speaker 5: you can lose rural America. You know, we were christ
Speaker 5: Ner were joking on Twitter the other day that Trump
Speaker 5: relying on men is quite a risky bet. Like, actually,
Speaker 5: here's my ballot right here. I was just going to say,
Speaker 5: I think I lost my ballot, but I just so,
Speaker 5: I just found it, but I haven't set it in.
Speaker 5: My wife sent hers in days and days ago. I'll
Speaker 5: probably go on election. Uh, and most men are like,
Speaker 5: oh shit today, God yeah, and then some bunch of.
Speaker 1: The markets show up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've I've voted when Kyle has not.
Speaker 1: So really, my wife and I voted together. I'm actually
Speaker 1: the one who told her. I said, Babe, we got
Speaker 1: to go to the polls. What are we doing here?
Speaker 1: I don't want to wait in line. So and that
Speaker 1: was like a week ago.
Speaker 2: Is the exception that, yes, you're an unusual creature. My
Speaker 2: friend said with love, said all right, let's go and
Speaker 2: get to Yeah, let's get to Nate Silver first informing
Speaker 2: us of why everything we're about to do and the
Speaker 2: rest of this block is worthless. But anyway, here we go.
Speaker 2: This is Nate Silver talking about how the polsters are hurting,
Speaker 2: meaning they're all putting their thumb on the scales to
Speaker 2: get basically a tide result. Let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 2: Hold on, that's way too fast.
Speaker 1: That not too fast for me.
Speaker 2: Let me slow that down.
Speaker 5: All right, we already have.
Speaker 2: Let me get my d MS on here. All right,
Speaker 2: here we.
Speaker 6: Go fifty five with a small chance of a tie.
Speaker 1: It's been a little weird.
Speaker 6: I mean, look, it's gradually drifted to trump over actually
Speaker 6: a fairly long period.
Speaker 1: Now.
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, two and every three days Harris
Speaker 6: has lost grown on the forecast since since roughly early October.
Speaker 6: You know, it looks like you should stabilize a bit.
Speaker 6: Maybe I don't think we're gonna don't think we're gonn
Speaker 6: gonna learn very much in this last week of the polling.
Speaker 6: In fact, I kind of trust polsters lest this. They
Speaker 6: all every time a polster, Oh every state is just
Speaker 6: a plus one if every single state's a tie.
Speaker 1: No, you're fucking hurting.
Speaker 6: You're cheating.
Speaker 3: You're cheating.
Speaker 6: Your numbers are all going to come out at exactly
Speaker 6: one point leads. When you're staying with like eight hundred
Speaker 6: people over dozens of surveys, you are lying. You're putting
Speaker 6: a fucking figer on the scale. I will not name names,
Speaker 6: but some pultures are really bad about this.
Speaker 2: I think, yeah, you get the gist there, and this
Speaker 2: is something a phenomenon that we've been talking about about.
Speaker 2: And I looked Nate co tweeted out what previous accurate
Speaker 2: polling looked like back in you know, twenty twelve, when
Speaker 2: the polls were more accurate, and he was showing like,
Speaker 2: in each state, here's how much of a distribution you
Speaker 2: got In tern you'd get someone who was like, you know, oh,
Speaker 2: it's plus five Barack Obama, Oh, actually met Romney's leading,
Speaker 2: and the average overall was very close, but you had
Speaker 2: a lot of variability within that. Now, you guys know,
Speaker 2: I mean, we're about to look at a ton of poles,
Speaker 2: most of which are like forty nine forty nine. Maybe
Speaker 2: Kamala's got a point edge, maybe Trump's got a point edge,
Speaker 2: And yeah, I think they're terrified. If they say it's
Speaker 2: fifty to fifty, then they can't be too embarrassed no
Speaker 2: matter what happens. And these are human beings with incentives,
Speaker 2: and they do have the ability through making these likely
Speaker 2: voter model screens, to put their thumb on the scales.
Speaker 2: And yeah, I think they are.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I tweeted this morning. I was like, one of
Speaker 1: the things my biggest pulling lesson from this election is
Speaker 1: that Polsters don't have an incentive to get it right
Speaker 1: or even try. It's just an incentive to preserve future
Speaker 1: business by not going out on a limb. And I
Speaker 1: mean that's right cowardly and a problem in an industry
Speaker 1: that is literally's entire job is forecasting. But that is
Speaker 1: very helpful to people who are looking at this, who
Speaker 1: are trying to use like twenty twenty or whatever type comparisons.
Speaker 1: The truth is they have the fear of God in
Speaker 1: them from two subsequent times of having such massive misses
Speaker 1: in them. So we're going to show you some indicators,
Speaker 1: but it's a lot more noisy, I think than previously.
Speaker 1: I mean that said, there are some who are going
Speaker 1: out on a limb, and for those we should take
Speaker 1: we should pay attention the ones who are going out
Speaker 1: on a limb for Trump and the ones who are
Speaker 1: going out on a limb for KMMLA, because that actually
Speaker 1: in the future we could look to them as well.
Speaker 2: What do y'all think, Ryan and Emily.
Speaker 5: It feels like a huge waste of everybody's time to
Speaker 5: let me assign all these people to make all these
Speaker 5: phone calls, have people sit through these surveys, then have
Speaker 5: analysts go through all the surveys. If they're actually just
Speaker 5: working backwards from their assumption, which is that it's now.
Speaker 5: The way they could all be wrong is let's say
Speaker 5: somebody wins a state by five points, and then but
Speaker 5: then they'll say, ah, well everybody missed it, so it's
Speaker 5: not it's not on me.
Speaker 2: Well that's it. There's safety in numbers too. That's the
Speaker 2: hurting part. If everyone is saying it's fifty to fifty,
Speaker 2: then no individual polster has to be the one that
Speaker 2: you know, what was it they said, Well, Biden's gonna
Speaker 2: win Wisconsin by fourteen points or whatever, So no one
Speaker 2: faces that level of reputational damage.
Speaker 3: Yes, Brian's cat, of course, but.
Speaker 4: There are obviously structural problems that have not gone away,
Speaker 4: Meaning you have this like massive tech gap between hyperpensity
Speaker 4: boomer voters and this goes back obviously years. Posters have
Speaker 4: been dealing with this for a long time, and low
Speaker 4: propensity zoomer millennial voters who don't have landlines and they're
Speaker 4: adopting to the like that hasn't gone away. There is
Speaker 4: no good way to deal with that. Everybody knows that.
Speaker 4: So I think it's I think it's there is some
Speaker 4: reasonable uncertainty, but I don't disagree with Nate Silver that
Speaker 4: people are playing a little fast and loose to preserve
Speaker 4: their themselves. And it's also because people have gotten really
Speaker 4: pissed off about polling. Yeah, I think we used it
Speaker 4: before it became so polarized. It used to be like, okay, well,
Speaker 4: you know, it's it's an art, not a science.
Speaker 2: And I was just like, man, yeah, well, And I
Speaker 2: will say there's a lot more punishment meted out when
Speaker 2: they underestimate Republicans than like they missed in twenty twenty
Speaker 2: two they underestimated Dems, but they didn't get like ripped
Speaker 2: a new one over it. So that creates certain incentives too.
Speaker 2: And we know because of Nate Cone's analysis that they
Speaker 2: have basically tried to clude just like we're just going
Speaker 2: to assume that we're getting some Trump non voter response
Speaker 2: and so we're just gonna, you know, sort of cluge
Speaker 2: away to bump up his poll numbers. Many of the
Speaker 2: posters are doing that, so we know they've really tried
Speaker 2: to adjust. But they also could be that they're correct
Speaker 2: about that, that they are missing some chunk of Trump
Speaker 2: voters that they missed in twenty sixteen and missed again
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, So who knows.
Speaker 4: I just want to quickly say the Federalist is also
Speaker 4: an article this week that said the stigma around being
Speaker 4: a Trump supporter is gone as and as Ryan mentioned
Speaker 4: on our show on Wednesday, he said, you know, if
Speaker 4: anyone would know, it's the Federalist and that is affecting polling,
Speaker 4: There's no question about it.
Speaker 3: And what polsters have been doing for the.
Speaker 4: Last couple of cycles is trying to address that quote
Speaker 4: shy Trump supporter. But what if the shy Trump supporters
Speaker 4: totally gone and their adjustments are actually missing. That people
Speaker 4: are now much more eager to say he only I'm
Speaker 4: voting for Donald Trump, you know, like I heard on
Speaker 4: theovon like the stigma is very very different this time.
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, So I thought that was an interesting point too.
Speaker 1: Who was it on our show that made a point
Speaker 1: that Trump supporters these days are not all that shy
Speaker 1: about saying they're voting for Trump.
Speaker 2: I think it might have been Logan that said that one.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's definitely true if you spend any time
Speaker 1: in Trump Country during this election. The t shirts, the
Speaker 1: truck bumpers, stickers, and the signs are more out of
Speaker 1: control than I've ever seen ever before. And I lived
Speaker 1: in a place that voted ninety percent for George W.
Speaker 3: Bush.
Speaker 2: I don't know that the shy Trump voter theory was
Speaker 2: ever real, because I think actually the problem in twenty
Speaker 2: sixteen was just they didn't have enough non college educated people.
Speaker 2: It wasn't that people were like not admitting, it was
Speaker 2: that they were not being sampled properly. But the Democrats
Speaker 2: have a theory there's a shy Kamala voter, predominantly like
Speaker 2: women whose husbands are voting Trump and they don't want to,
Speaker 2: like cause marital distress by admitting they want to vote
Speaker 2: for Kamala and they've had a whole ad series has
Speaker 2: been very controversial, controversial, dedicated to telling women like, don't worry,
Speaker 2: you still have your choice in the voting booth, blah blah.
Speaker 2: I think Julia Roberts voiced one, yes, she did.
Speaker 4: Chuck Chuck Roach told me yesterday actually and undercurrentcy said
Speaker 4: he was like, no, that's one hundred percent real.
Speaker 2: He said that they're really absolutely seeing him.
Speaker 4: That's why they're putting money behind it, which I was
Speaker 4: totally skeptical of. Maybe he's but he's under an impression
Speaker 4: that's totally real.
Speaker 2: All right, Well we're gonna find out. Okay they know,
Speaker 2: How will they know after that?
Speaker 1: If it's real?
Speaker 5: How'd they find these women like that you told them?
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's an interesting question.
Speaker 5: If they're not willing to talk about it.
Speaker 2: If they're so shy they're not admitting it, Yeah, you'd
Speaker 2: have to just like.
Speaker 1: It's got them.
Speaker 5: On Monday night, while the while the dude was at.
Speaker 2: The bar watching after the wine, had a couple of
Speaker 2: glasses in after the kids were in bed, the book clubs. Yes,
Speaker 2: the playgroup was infiltrated. Okay, all right, I got Polly
Speaker 2: Market up on the screen here, Sager, tell me you
Speaker 2: sent in this element. Tell me why this was significant
Speaker 2: to you.
Speaker 1: So there's been a movement there. Actually more recently it's
Speaker 1: gone back. But Crystal, can you kit politics please out
Speaker 1: at the top and just click the politics ones, because
Speaker 1: I want to show people the battleground states specifically. If
Speaker 1: you just scroll down a little bit and you look
Speaker 1: for Michigan and Wisconsin, you can actually see that she
Speaker 1: has taken the lead in both of those states. So
Speaker 1: that was a huge swing that just happened in the
Speaker 1: last twenty four hours. If you go back, the same
Speaker 1: thing has now happened in Wisconsin just in the last
Speaker 1: twenty four hours. Has been massive shift in both markets.
Speaker 1: Just from a pure betting point of view. I've been
Speaker 1: talking about this a little bit on the show. There
Speaker 1: has been basically like an ocean of dumb money that
Speaker 1: has come into polymarket that is purely trying to vote
Speaker 1: based on vibes the big problem. Yeah, So there you go.
Speaker 1: You can see Kamo at fifty two, and all of
Speaker 1: that movement has happened literally in the last twenty four
Speaker 1: hours and actually more like in the last six hours. Basically,
Speaker 1: what happened is in the early days of sports betting
Speaker 1: is that it was very similar where the sports books
Speaker 1: didn't really know how to quote unquote price align. And
Speaker 1: so what will happen is that you will have quote
Speaker 1: unquote sharp betters, people who disagree with this, who will
Speaker 1: wait until the last minute, or they will lock in
Speaker 1: something that they see is very unfavorable to the odds.
Speaker 1: And this is a huge problem because polymarket has been
Speaker 1: dramatically out of step with just the basic Nate Silver model,
Speaker 1: which was the most accurate predictor of results in twenty
Speaker 1: sixteen and in twenty twenty, and so you can tell
Speaker 1: that the irrational exuberance has really happened, has had now
Speaker 1: a major correction. I wouldn't say that Trump won't maintain
Speaker 1: the lead just because I think a ton of money
Speaker 1: was already placed on bets his side. And of course
Speaker 1: there's also a lot of narrative stuff going on with this.
Speaker 1: But if you look at the state by state data,
Speaker 1: the two seventy two sixty eight path in particular that
Speaker 1: Ryan is laying out is becoming a big bet on
Speaker 1: the on polymarket hot with tens of millions of dollars
Speaker 1: behind of it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I mean it's also just significant because the
Speaker 2: writer has focused so much, and Elon in particular is
Speaker 2: pumped up poly market so much that it's like, you know,
Speaker 2: if it's shifting some that's I don't know, maybe it
Speaker 2: shouldn't be important, but it's interesting to look.
Speaker 1: At billions, at least a billion five in the market.
Speaker 1: It's not small. You know, this is a real thing.
Speaker 3: Sager.
Speaker 4: There was a French billionaire who was gaming it for Trump, right,
Speaker 4: like the yeah mask.
Speaker 1: Yeah nobody, yeah, but yeah.
Speaker 2: I mean whether he was, you know, legitimately is really
Speaker 2: believed in Trump was.
Speaker 1: Altly trying to furnish you a French VPN. Okay, So
Speaker 1: like let's send.
Speaker 2: Very true here. I've got up the Marist final polls
Speaker 2: from the Blue Wall. Now, maris is significant. We had
Speaker 2: on Edinger Mentem yesterday who called the twenty two race
Speaker 2: correctly and called the Warnock election correctly as well and
Speaker 2: did not buy into the red wave narrative. And Marist
Speaker 2: was one of the polls that was correct in twenty
Speaker 2: twenty two, and it's one of the pollsters that he
Speaker 2: sort of like, you know, looks to the most as
Speaker 2: not falling in so much to the herding and you
Speaker 2: know and the putting of the home on the scales
Speaker 2: as many other pollsters. So they find here a tight race,
Speaker 2: but pretty good for Kamala. She's up in all three
Speaker 2: of the Blue Wall states. She's up fifty one to
Speaker 2: forty eight in Michigan, fifty forty eight in Pennsylvania, and
Speaker 2: fifty forty eight in Wisconsin as well. That you get
Speaker 2: the Senate numbers here as well, but also look quite
Speaker 2: similar for Democrats. The Senate Democrats in the Blue Wall
Speaker 2: are no longer out for forming Kamala as significantly at
Speaker 2: least as they were in the past, so less ticket
Speaker 2: splitting it looks like there, but again who knows.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the Maris one in particular was the most interesting
Speaker 1: Maris you can actually pick in either direction because it
Speaker 1: had big miss in twenty twenty. That's what a lot
Speaker 1: of you know, GOP people are talking about. It actually though,
Speaker 1: was very accurate in twenty twenty two. It was one
Speaker 1: of the only ones that high quality so called poster
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty two that called Fetterman up by I
Speaker 1: think it was two or three points in the state.
Speaker 1: So it's one to take advantage of looking for if
Speaker 1: you're looking for the signal there, I think this and
Speaker 1: we're I think we're about to talk about this senior
Speaker 1: vote in Pa. Are two like flashing signs of potential
Speaker 1: Kamala victory in all three of those states.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's exactly right. Let me see what I
Speaker 2: got up next here. Next, I've got another. I've got
Speaker 2: just the rundown you sent Sager of all the Pennsylvanania.
Speaker 1: Yay, this is you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, let me pull let me pull this up. Hold on,
Speaker 2: let's see if I cannot screw this up.
Speaker 1: Here we go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, here's the rundown of all the recent Pennsylvania polling.
Speaker 2: Among Lakely voters Maris as we said, D plus two,
Speaker 2: Fox tie, quinnipiec R plus one, CNN tie, CBS tie. So,
Speaker 2: and then you've got more down here Marist D plus three.
Speaker 2: Uh oh, this is Michigan WAPO D plus one, Fox
Speaker 2: D plus two, CNND plus five. Michigan appears to be
Speaker 2: Commala's most certain state at this point. Wisconsin D plus two,
Speaker 2: D plus two, D plus six, and thie North Carolina anyway,
Speaker 2: it goes on from there a lot of uh. And
Speaker 2: then as you get to Arizona's the state that is
Speaker 2: the swing state that is probably the most favorable for Trump,
Speaker 2: either there or Georgia, where the polling has been a
Speaker 2: little bit more erratic, more of a more variability there.
Speaker 1: Yeah. Uh, I guess let's give the Trump case. I think.
Speaker 1: Don't you have Atlas which is listed up next? Atlas
Speaker 1: was quite uh what was it the most accurate pollster
Speaker 1: in tw twenty and yeah, I believe that one. That
Speaker 1: one's listed next Crystal in the Rundown. Yeah, if right
Speaker 1: underneath there. So yeah, there you go, and you can
Speaker 1: see wide margin of strength for Trump in Arizona, in
Speaker 1: North Carolina, in Nevada if he's got a couple of points.
Speaker 1: Georgia actually has tighter at one point six just for
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. But they have Trump leads in all three
Speaker 1: of the states, with Wisconsin actually being the tightest one
Speaker 1: at point three. Emily, what do you make of that?
Speaker 1: There's on the betting markets right now. Wisconsin is actually
Speaker 1: what a lot of people have as going to be
Speaker 1: the tightest state for battleground state. I think it was
Speaker 1: the second tightest last time in or sorry, in twenty sixteen,
Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen there?
Speaker 4: I mean, both candidates have spent a truly outrageous amount
Speaker 4: of time there host Hillary Clinton.
Speaker 3: Obviously there's a good reason for that, but it's I mean,
Speaker 3: it's tied.
Speaker 4: That's that's what I say. Like the RCP average has
Speaker 4: actually Harris up in their national average. I'm looking at
Speaker 4: it right now. They have her up in every blue
Speaker 4: Wall state except for Pennsylvania. So in Wisconsin it's only
Speaker 4: by point three though on the national RCP average. So
Speaker 4: it's just they have a huge Senate race, and I know,
Speaker 4: like Ryan and Crystal, you guys have covered Tammy Baldwin's
Speaker 4: career for a long time. She's very popular in Wisconsin.
Speaker 4: The Republican candidate has inflation and immigration going for him,
Speaker 4: but he's kind of actually interned for him when I
Speaker 4: was but a young student, and his other things going
Speaker 4: against him, just being an out of state a multi
Speaker 4: multimillionaire or someone who's pegged us out of state. So
Speaker 4: I just it's so it's too close, and I know
Speaker 4: that's not very useful, but I have sources saying they're
Speaker 4: seeing in Wisconsin in particular the rural margins going up,
Speaker 4: which again I find just fascinating. Like now people say
Speaker 4: I'm turning out for Trump and I'm voting for Trump
Speaker 4: in these rural areas after nearly a decade of the
Speaker 4: Trump phenomena, but they say they're clearly not confident the
Speaker 4: suburban margins. I feel like they're going to keep losing
Speaker 4: in the Wow counties that's uh waukeshaw Zaki in Washington
Speaker 4: outside of Milwaukee. And if their margin, Trump will win
Speaker 4: all of those counties. But if he keeps losing, or
Speaker 4: if he keeps winning by less, then that's a real disaster.
Speaker 4: Yet I don't know that you can mathematically make up
Speaker 4: for that with uh the rural voters. And I think
Speaker 4: Ryan probably sees something similar as a Pennsylvania guy when
Speaker 4: you look at the collar counties outside Philadelphia.
Speaker 2: We got some new two new CNN battleground poles as well.
Speaker 2: They had already released their Blue Wall polls and to
Speaker 2: their credit, showed, you know, something other than a tie.
Speaker 2: They showed Harris with a significant lead in Wisconsin, Michigan,
Speaker 2: and then it tied in Pennsylvania. This time, they've got
Speaker 2: Georgia Trump forty eight forty seven. North Carolina Kamala forty
Speaker 2: eight forty seven. So there you go. Whatever you can
Speaker 2: make of that, I don't really know, but you know this,
Speaker 2: if this was all accurate, perfect accurate, I guess Kamala
Speaker 2: would win depending on Nevada. But this Pennsylvania being a
Speaker 2: tie really kind of PA is the really kind of
Speaker 2: screws it up. Yeah, there to be able to make
Speaker 2: any sort of real prediction based on any of that.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I look, if put the polling aside,
Speaker 1: you know, let's focus on the actual like vote and
Speaker 1: stuff that we're seeing. Yeah, I'm glad you put this
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. This has been the thing
Speaker 1: I've heard. I have a few friends who are real
Speaker 1: like gop Cassandra's like, there are one hundred percent convinced
Speaker 1: Trump is going to lose, and I always check in
Speaker 1: with them because it's a very good check. This is
Speaker 1: one of the ones that they've been pointing to me
Speaker 1: a lot. Quote. As the early results from PA reveal
Speaker 1: an influx of first time female voters who will break
Speaker 1: for Harris, newfound anxiety is taking hold, and in mar
Speaker 1: A Lago they are starting to believe that the surge
Speaker 1: last week was two weeks premature. Put the whole surge stuff,
Speaker 1: you know, like out of it, because a lot of
Speaker 1: this is I don't even necessarily know if like the
Speaker 1: current vibe of the election would have affected that. I
Speaker 1: think the truth is that the electorate has just changed
Speaker 1: a lot. And this is one of the big problems
Speaker 1: with the twenty twenty recall to vote waiting that a
Speaker 1: lot of these polsters are doing. We were talking right before,
Speaker 1: Crystal about in migration, the character of each of these states,
Speaker 1: specifically the battleground states has changed dramatically in terms of
Speaker 1: North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia just population wise. Then add
Speaker 1: on top of that that you have had not similar
Speaker 1: changes in the blue Wall states, but demographically you had
Speaker 1: that massive suburban swing that has happened for Kamala Harris,
Speaker 1: it's a hidden sign of strength for her. It always
Speaker 1: has been. Trump's major strength would be his ability to
Speaker 1: drive out that rural vote, like Emily has said, and
Speaker 1: one of the signs of strength for him is, for example,
Speaker 1: in Georgia today there is actually a higher turnout amongst
Speaker 1: rural counties. Some of these rural counties are already at
Speaker 1: ninety two percent of their election day totals before the
Speaker 1: ballots have even been cast an election day, and they
Speaker 1: are much higher, some like thirty percent higher than actually
Speaker 1: in the suburban counties in Georgia that surrounding Metro Atlanta.
Speaker 1: So the only really way that this election will turn
Speaker 1: for Trump is if there is, uh, there is that
Speaker 1: similar like strength even more like one hundred and ten
Speaker 1: percent in the rural counties and specifically also with the
Speaker 1: black and Latino vote to offset any white suburban shift.
Speaker 1: But this is why it is still such a very
Speaker 1: very tight race here. That's what I really.
Speaker 2: Saw Ryan in twenty sixteen, Schumer famously said basically like,
Speaker 2: you know, for every voter we lose that's working class
Speaker 2: or rural, will gain two in the Pennsylvania suburbs. And
Speaker 2: you know, this indicates that that math may actually now
Speaker 2: be paying off.
Speaker 5: I guess, I mean, basically, he was running a cynical
Speaker 5: math game that we are a country that is like
Speaker 5: you drive around our country, we're a suburban country. Like
Speaker 5: it's just it's suburbs from coast to coast, plus then
Speaker 5: some cities like inside there, and then you get out
Speaker 5: in the rural areas. Those are pretty suburban like it's
Speaker 5: I think I think more people consider themselves living in
Speaker 5: a rural area than actually do live in a rural area. Now,
Speaker 5: if people vote based on how they feel and identify,
Speaker 5: then that then it doesn't actually matter that they're wrong
Speaker 5: about where they live. But yeah, I mean the Democrats
Speaker 5: are going to test the theory, like how badly can
Speaker 5: you completely bottom out among an entire kind of regional
Speaker 5: sector of the vote and still maintain a nationwide competitiveness.
Speaker 1: This part is so key too that you have in
Speaker 1: front is this Trump lagging in the early vote with seniors.
Speaker 1: And I was thinking about it. If Kamala is given
Speaker 1: the White House in two seventy two sixty eight by
Speaker 1: boomers in PA, but Trump wins the black Latino vote,
Speaker 1: and he actually wins all the most economically dynamic states,
Speaker 1: which is across the Sun Belt, will have like one
Speaker 1: of those reverse twenty sixteen situations where what did Hillary
Speaker 1: say she was like I won all the places? What
Speaker 1: does she say that she was.
Speaker 2: Like our dynamic growing or doing well?
Speaker 7: That?
Speaker 1: Yeah, and he and all the places they are doing bad.
Speaker 1: It actually would be the opposite this time around, which
Speaker 1: kind of fits if you think about my whole barsool
Speaker 1: conservative thesis about like you know, libertarian economics and specifically
Speaker 1: the type of people who would move to a sun
Speaker 1: belt state where the election, you know, where the economy
Speaker 1: is the pre eminent one, as opposed to PA where
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear like a lot of the people who
Speaker 1: are coming in for common the Democrats are coming on
Speaker 1: the back of abortion and it's just like one of
Speaker 1: the number one catalysts for that surgeon suburban vote and
Speaker 1: specifically also with women.
Speaker 4: And let me just quickly put some numbers on this,
Speaker 4: because I have them in front of me. This is,
Speaker 4: according to Pew, to just visualize the difference between rural,
Speaker 4: suburban and urban voters, forty six million Americans live in
Speaker 4: the nation's rural counties, one hundred and seventy five million
Speaker 4: in its suburbs and small metros, and then about ninety
Speaker 4: eight million in its urban core counties. So I mean,
Speaker 4: it's really just it's not even close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I guess that's the other question with
Speaker 2: the early vote that people have been raising, you know,
Speaker 2: where there's huge early turnout in these rural counties, is
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, where these just people
Speaker 2: who were going to show up an election day, another
Speaker 2: showing up early, you know, so it doesn't really impact
Speaker 2: the turnout margin, et cetera in these counties, and you know,
Speaker 2: still very much too early to tell on any of that.
Speaker 2: Next we have another you know, if you're making the
Speaker 2: bowl case for Democrats, this is the enthusiasm numbers, and
Speaker 2: you can actually see that they have maintained. Now, Democrats
Speaker 2: have actually slid a little bit since basically like Kamalo's pick,
Speaker 2: but still they have maintained very high enthusiasm numbers, higher
Speaker 2: than the Republicans. And you know, I feel like you
Speaker 2: can get that vibe a little bit at some of
Speaker 2: Trump's rallies are a little bit more low energy than
Speaker 2: they used to be. Certainly massive turnout for Kamala in
Speaker 2: the places where she is popular on the you know,
Speaker 2: the Ellipse where you guys were the other night. I've
Speaker 2: also seen numbers which are kind of wild to me
Speaker 2: that she's as possular with Democrats as Barack Obama was
Speaker 2: at his like peak in two thousand and eight, which is,
Speaker 2: you know, surprising, but.
Speaker 5: In any case, primary people hated him.
Speaker 2: That is true. You also at that point had more
Speaker 2: people who are in that, like, you know, Appalachian in particular,
Speaker 2: I still identify as a Democrat, but I'm really not
Speaker 2: a Democrat outside of maybe like voting for county officials,
Speaker 2: and most of that realignment has all shaken out. Yeah,
Speaker 2: all right, let me see what I got here next.
Speaker 2: This is interesting about where the turnout is, that rural turnout.
Speaker 2: This is from Greg Bluestem down in Georgia, great reporter
Speaker 2: at Atlanta Journal Constitution. He says, the highest early voting
Speaker 2: turnout in Georgia is not in Democratic strongholds like Dacabb
Speaker 2: County or the fiercely contested suburbs that surround Metro Atlanta.
Speaker 2: It's in sparsely populated rural counties where Republicans dominate. So
Speaker 2: this is what what you guys have been talked about.
Speaker 2: You know, Like I said, the Democratic cope here is
Speaker 2: that okay, But those people are just going to vote
Speaker 2: on election day, so no big deal. And also, by
Speaker 2: the way, there's not enough of them. But it can
Speaker 2: also be an indicator of hey this, you know, your
Speaker 2: opponent is really fired up, Like they are turning out
Speaker 2: to vote early in potentially unprecedented numbers.
Speaker 4: It's totally what I'm hearing from Republicans. That's really where
Speaker 4: they're getting their source of hope from right now, is
Speaker 4: what they're seeing in early voting in rural areas.
Speaker 2: And Emily, is there a nervousness there though, Like there's
Speaker 2: a lot of bravado publicly, But are you like we
Speaker 2: we showed the reporting I believe from Puck News earlier
Speaker 2: that said there was anxiety in particular about Pennsylvania. Is
Speaker 2: that accurate to the best of your knowledge?
Speaker 3: Totally?
Speaker 4: And that said, and Sager, you're probably seeing this too.
Speaker 4: It's it's almost polarized within like geop circles, where you
Speaker 4: have some people who are feeling jittery because of that,
Speaker 4: and then you have other people who are like, actually,
Speaker 4: we're gonna see Trump win the popular vote. He's going
Speaker 4: to sweep the blue wall, and he's been surging the
Speaker 4: last few weeks.
Speaker 3: She's been struggling.
Speaker 4: We've just seen him be underestimated in those national averages,
Speaker 4: and the fact that he's tied means that he's probably
Speaker 4: up by three or four points. And so election day
Speaker 4: comes around and you see him win Wisconsin by two,
Speaker 4: you see him win Pennsylvania by three, you see him
Speaker 4: just absolutely crushed North Carolina and Georgia, and we know
Speaker 4: the answer pretty early. So people are like in one
Speaker 4: of two camps. There aren't a lot of people in
Speaker 4: the middle. People are either like, who these numbers have
Speaker 4: this feeling a little uncomfortable because of the suburban vote,
Speaker 4: or people like, actually, he's being underestimated.
Speaker 1: The other caution I would throw out for people out
Speaker 1: there is there's a real public private game happening right now.
Speaker 1: So I noticed this with like democratic election experts, like
Speaker 1: everything is about like, well, actually, here's why the Democratic
Speaker 1: turnouts like not that bad, or actually, here's why you
Speaker 1: know the Democratic turnout is going to be okay. And
Speaker 1: there's also a huge I mean because Twitter right now
Speaker 1: is signal boosting like so much pro Trump content. There's
Speaker 1: a real effort to try and just like demoralize the
Speaker 1: left by saying like, oh, it's going to be a
Speaker 1: Trump blowout victory. It's going to be this. The smart ones,
Speaker 1: the smarter ones, I will say, are people like Mike
Speaker 1: Cernovich and Charlie Kirk, who I noticed, you know, we're
Speaker 1: originally doing that, but when they got the data in,
Speaker 1: they were like, Okay, we have a problem here. Men
Speaker 1: are not voting. We need to get our asses out,
Speaker 1: we need to go vote right now. But there is
Speaker 1: still I have noticed, like a commentator or a polling
Speaker 1: analysis types which have grown up on the right, which
Speaker 1: are very, very obviously geared to trying to demoralize the left.
Speaker 1: And so you I'm what I'm saying that is for
Speaker 1: people who are out there who are just scrolling, you
Speaker 1: may not know that is you should really like think
Speaker 1: about the motivations also of the poster, because sometimes a
Speaker 1: lot of it is not honest analysis. I saw a
Speaker 1: lot of this back in twenty twenty. Oh Trump, you know,
Speaker 1: Virginia is in play. It's like, no, it's not. You know,
Speaker 1: it's not like we just saw a rowneck pole this
Speaker 1: morning has carry us up by ten points. Or remember
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty, New Mexico is in play. Like again,
Speaker 1: no it's not. You know, Trump lost it by more
Speaker 1: than twenty twenty than he did in twenty sixteen, and
Speaker 1: he'll probably be lose it by I mean, pols just
Speaker 1: saw this morning in New Mexico he's down by twelve.
Speaker 1: So now why is Trump in both of these states
Speaker 1: in the last week of the election. Beats me, you know, it's.
Speaker 2: All politics is national, so it kind of doesn't really
Speaker 2: matter where he does the rally at this point, if
Speaker 2: the rally gets coverage, Ryan, do you get any vibes
Speaker 2: from the Democratic side or they're too mad about you
Speaker 2: opposing their genocide to talk?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 5: No, their vibe is nervous, with some cautious optimism that
Speaker 5: they're in it like they've.
Speaker 2: Isn't the Democratic vibe always nervous though.
Speaker 5: Yes, I agree with that, except twenty sixteen they were, Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, famously not nervous in twenty sixteen competent again. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 2: I was there, man, at the Davit Center. It was sad.
Speaker 2: It was a sad place to be. Let me tell you,
Speaker 2: it was a sad place to be, all right. We
Speaker 2: got some dueling endorsements here. Let me just quickly go
Speaker 2: through these. We got Lebron James sharing some Tony Hinchcliff
Speaker 2: and endorsing Kamala Harris. I won't play the video, but it's, like,
Speaker 2: you know, a compilation of basically like hateful comments from
Speaker 2: Trump and various supporters. We also, though, got on the
Speaker 2: other side, Jake Paul endorsing Donald Trump, and I actually didn't.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure what the content is of this video.
Speaker 2: It did in eighteen minutes of Jake Paul's explanation for
Speaker 2: his endorsement. Maybe maybe somebody else here can share some
Speaker 2: more insight there.
Speaker 1: No, I mean it's you know, as an original Team
Speaker 1: ten person, this is of course shocking to see somebody
Speaker 1: who I used to watch during prank videos now literally
Speaker 1: endorsing Trump. But look, Jake Paul Logan Paul is not
Speaker 1: a surprise. There were two who were original, like from
Speaker 1: some of the early influencers who were kind of flirting
Speaker 1: with and or endorsing Trump interviewing him. It's if you
Speaker 1: look at the world that they swim in from crypto
Speaker 1: go to boxing, UFC, like the bro sphere online, it's
Speaker 1: very obvious what that trend in direction is. For example,
Speaker 1: like Jake was a big vivig Ramaswami guy, right, so
Speaker 1: there you go, like where does that come from? It's
Speaker 1: very much like the podcast world. And so, I mean,
Speaker 1: this is a big bet, and that's Ryan what you
Speaker 1: just talked about. The bet is is these people will
Speaker 1: come out to vote. Now, statistically it doesn't really happen,
Speaker 1: but twenty twenty was a very high turnout election. We
Speaker 1: don't think that twenty and twenty four will reach twenty
Speaker 1: twenty levels, but it'll probably be higher than twenty sixteen.
Speaker 1: I think the youth vote was higher in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: than it had been in quite a long time. So
Speaker 1: you know, if you see people who are jazzed up
Speaker 1: and potentially you know, this could be something that swings
Speaker 1: in their direction. So I don't I wouldn't dismiss it
Speaker 1: because if their theory of the male turnout and the
Speaker 1: gender grap is correct, especially in terms of enthusiasm getting
Speaker 1: people out to vote, it will be like genuinely a
Speaker 1: landmark moment, especially some of those swing states where if
Speaker 1: that's what the margin of victory is, it'll be pretty crazy.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and it's a huge long term problem for Democrats
Speaker 5: regards even if they eat this one out. Just not
Speaker 5: having Democrats even be part of the conversation among like
Speaker 5: one of two genders is insane. Every Like pretty pretty
Speaker 5: much everything that that that men do ends up being
Speaker 5: coded as Republican and right wing, whether it's like exercise,
Speaker 5: trying to stay healthy, watching sports, like just you know,
Speaker 5: talking about like talking about sports, whatever it is, like
Speaker 5: it it drifts into like the world of conservative podcasting,
Speaker 5: and they're just other than like Hassan Piker. There's like
Speaker 5: nobody there.
Speaker 2: You're there, Ryan me other than me, and I don't
Speaker 2: know that I'm really helping. But of course, I mean
Speaker 2: the flip side of that is obviously Republicans struggling with
Speaker 2: women in the bet that's being placed in this particular
Speaker 2: election is Republicans think the motivation of like the podcast
Speaker 2: circuit and Trump going on Rogan and Dake Paul endorsing
Speaker 2: and whatever will be sufficient motivation and energizing enough on
Speaker 2: the bro side to overcome the sense among many women
Speaker 2: and young women especially that they have lost a right
Speaker 2: that they previously took for granted.
Speaker 5: And it's kind of incredible that she it's kind of
Speaker 5: incredible she didn't take up the Joe Rogan opportunity. And
Speaker 5: I wonder if she'll kind of be the last one
Speaker 5: that blows them.
Speaker 1: Doesn't If she loses, that will be a huge That'll
Speaker 1: be one of those like, I'm.
Speaker 2: Just not as sold on it because Number I just
Speaker 2: there's a lot of risk there for her right.
Speaker 5: We visually may not just probably equipped for three hours
Speaker 5: of that exactly fair.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And then it's like how many of these people
Speaker 2: are winnable, motivatable, et cetera. I don't really disagree with
Speaker 2: their analysis of basically like, hey, if you'll do an
Speaker 2: hour and come to us, I guess we'll make it work.
Speaker 2: But in the home stretch we've got other fish to fry.
Speaker 5: I think a lot of them would have been winnable,
Speaker 5: but not necessarily by her. True what they need as
Speaker 5: a candidate who can sit down for three or four hours.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like I think, you know, Bernie did, like you know,
Speaker 2: Rogan's audience. I think at that point in Rogan himself
Speaker 2: was ideologically different when Bernie sits down with him. And
Speaker 2: Bernie also, by the way, didn't do three hours, but
Speaker 2: I people liked it on that podcast, and he was
Speaker 2: able to you know, go with the flow and like
Speaker 2: do his Bernie thing.
Speaker 4: Just But yeah, Lex, Well, I was just gonna say quickly,
Speaker 4: it's a problem for Democrats obviously, but it's a huge
Speaker 4: problem for Republicans. There are abortion referendums on the ballot
Speaker 4: when people are going to vote all over the country
Speaker 4: right now. So the gender gap, which literally as we
Speaker 4: were talking, I had a GOP source say we will
Speaker 4: see the largest gender gap in an election in decades. Well,
Speaker 4: it gets us right back to the same math that
Speaker 4: we're doing between rural and suburban. It's like, you can
Speaker 4: in all of the bros. But Megan Colli and Nikki Hayley,
Speaker 4: even this week after the Madison Square Garden rally, We're like, dude,
Speaker 4: you are.
Speaker 3: Turning off women.
Speaker 4: So it's not even just abortion, it's just the bro
Speaker 4: coded stuff like you can try to amp up the
Speaker 4: Meal voters, just like you can try to amp up
Speaker 4: the Royal voters for turnout, but then does it go
Speaker 4: too far in that direction and do you hurt your
Speaker 4: margins in other places?
Speaker 1: All right, we're going to turn out of Liz Cheney.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump did an event last night with Tucker Carlson
Speaker 1: made some quote unquote eye popping comments. We can debate
Speaker 1: what exactly said, whether it even should be all that controversial,
Speaker 1: but Christal, do you have it?
Speaker 2: Hid? Let me pull this up here, here we go.
Speaker 2: This is getting a lot of attention on cable news
Speaker 2: and with Democrats in particular. So here, let's take a listen.
Speaker 7: And Cheney was so fair. He said, I really want
Speaker 7: to thank you. He said, Now, I'm so glad that
Speaker 7: I actually endorsed you. It's amazing, but that you would
Speaker 7: do this, And I didn't speak to him about it,
Speaker 7: But then, you know, go a couple of years forward
Speaker 7: to go now, and I don't blame him for sticking
Speaker 7: with his daughter. But his daughter is a very dumb individual,
Speaker 7: very dumb. She's a radical war hawk. Let's put her
Speaker 7: with a rifle standing there with nine barrel shooting at her. Okay,
Speaker 7: let's see how she feels about it. You know, when
Speaker 7: the guns are trained on her face. You know, there
Speaker 7: were a war Hawks when they're sitting in Washington in
Speaker 7: a nice building saying, oh, gee, will let's send Let's
Speaker 7: send ten thousand troops right into the mouth of the enemy.
Speaker 7: But she's a stupid person. And I used to have
Speaker 7: I have meetings with a lot of people, and she
Speaker 7: always wanted to go to war with people. So whether
Speaker 7: it's her, whether it's sick. I was surprised a little
Speaker 7: bit with Dick Cheney. I didn't know him at all.
Speaker 7: I only had essentially the one or two phone calls,
Speaker 7: and it was only a call saying thank you very
Speaker 7: much for doing that for Scooter Libby. That was nice.
Speaker 7: And Scuda, by the way, was beyond that, he couldn't
Speaker 7: believe that it happened. Nobody would do it. They should
Speaker 7: have done that for him years before. But I was
Speaker 7: a little surprised because I actually thought that Dick Cheney
Speaker 7: would go with me over his daughter and he didn't.
Speaker 7: And you know what, I understand it. It's your daughter
Speaker 7: and you go, but she's a bad person.
Speaker 2: So to me, well, I'll let I'll let the rest
Speaker 2: of you guys react. But it's kind of wild to
Speaker 2: me that he was sad that he didn't get the
Speaker 2: Dick Cheney endorsing.
Speaker 1: Se Cable keeps talking about that. For me, I'm like, bro,
Speaker 1: we don't want the Dick Cheney endorsement. That's the whole point.
Speaker 2: Like Dick is way worse than Liz Way, Like she's
Speaker 2: got the bad ideology, like he did the thing like
Speaker 2: and you're still like, gosh, I wish Dick Cheney had
Speaker 2: endorsed me. It just shows you to me. And then
Speaker 2: well you can talk about the comments that you know,
Speaker 2: I think for for reasons that are you know, not unreasonable,
Speaker 2: that got picked up on where he was saying, you know,
Speaker 2: let's see her with the guns pointed at her face
Speaker 2: or something like that, but you know it shows you
Speaker 2: all of this, Oh, the neo cons are with Kamala
Speaker 2: and Trump is anti war and whatever. None of this
Speaker 2: is ideological for him. He still loves Mike Pompeo. He's
Speaker 2: Mike Pompeo might be the Secretary of Defense. Tom Cotton
Speaker 2: might be the Secretary of Defense. He's still pining after
Speaker 2: the Dick Cheney endorsement. He campaigned with Liz Cheney last
Speaker 2: time he ran, and she supported him throughout his entire
Speaker 2: term in office. So for him, it's just all about
Speaker 2: number one, Like how sort of prestigious he thinks you are.
Speaker 2: So he thinks Dick Cheney because he was vice president
Speaker 2: and he's well known, blah blah blah, it's prestigious, even
Speaker 2: though he's like, to me, one of the most evil,
Speaker 2: most nefarious politicians we've ever had in American politics. But
Speaker 2: then number two, and most importantly, it's not about ideology.
Speaker 2: It's about how do you feel about me personally? And
Speaker 2: did you come through for me personally when I needed
Speaker 2: and wanted you.
Speaker 1: If you're looking for ideologic coherence from Donald Trump and
Speaker 1: your Republican voter, I've got some bridges to sell you
Speaker 1: in terms of the cable comments. So I will quote
Speaker 1: from Zach Bouchamp, who can we all agree Zach Bouchamp
Speaker 1: is a major liberal Kamala Harris type figure. He says, folks,
Speaker 1: Trump did not threaten to execute Li Cheney. He actually
Speaker 1: was calling her a chickenhawk, something liberals have said about
Speaker 1: her for ages. Look at the context Trump is talking
Speaker 1: about giving her a weapon. Typically people put in front
Speaker 1: of firing scarms aren't armed. Trump does so many offensive things,
Speaker 1: He makes so many anti democratic promises, it is counterproductive
Speaker 1: to get outraged about fake ones. That and if you
Speaker 1: also combined Glenn Greenwald's long list there of all the
Speaker 1: chickenhawk comments that people have made throughout the two thousands
Speaker 1: about the Chinese, that is one of the most sane
Speaker 1: things that Trump has actually said about Liz Cheney. So
Speaker 1: I'll leave it at that.
Speaker 4: I think he's making a legitimate point, but it's somewhat
Speaker 4: amusing that he's making the point as they are saying
Speaker 4: that Kamala Harris calling him a fascist and a Nazi
Speaker 4: is incitement to another assassination attempt. So if we're playing
Speaker 4: this game, I mean, obviously am the political candidates to this.
Speaker 1: Thank you for saying that, and like, can you sound
Speaker 1: off on this this? What did Mark Cuban say something
Speaker 1: about like stupid women? He was like, no intelligent women sport.
Speaker 4: But I've had an all time Hall of Fame level
Speaker 4: tweet at yes.
Speaker 1: I saw that. Yeah, where he's like he doesn't even
Speaker 1: have club speed. This is two where let's let's float
Speaker 1: slow clue, let's talk about golf. Republican Republican snowflakes on this,
Speaker 1: They're like, I'm a strong woman and I support Trump.
Speaker 1: I'm like, you are just as much of a loser
Speaker 1: then as those possy hat wearing liberals if you're out
Speaker 1: there like sorry, like you know, like do we reject
Speaker 1: identity stuff or not? Like are we getting offended at
Speaker 1: things or not? And it's like the selective bias on
Speaker 1: this drives me crazy because they're like, Mark Cuban doesn't
Speaker 1: respect women because you said smart women don't surround themselves
Speaker 1: with Trump. And they're like, I'm a swart woman who
Speaker 1: works for Donald Trump. I'm like that's like Hillary Clinton,
Speaker 1: like bullshity.
Speaker 4: It's it's well, no, I mean it's virtue signaling, right,
Speaker 4: Like it's it's what's so insufferable about virtue signaling on
Speaker 4: the left is that there's a sanctimony to it, and
Speaker 4: it's the same thing when it's on the right. Now,
Speaker 4: Mark Cuban said something really dumb, by the way, from
Speaker 4: the interior of what appeared to be his private jet. Well,
Speaker 4: he was beaming into his view and assuring everybody that
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris would be the best president for them. So
Speaker 4: it's it's amusing all around, Like there are real, no
Speaker 4: real winners here in this situation. But I do think
Speaker 4: it is a little bit precious to defend Donald Trump
Speaker 4: saying let's see Liz Cheney with a gun in her face.
Speaker 2: And by the way, the reason because you know, if
Speaker 2: Kamala or Tim Walls or Mark Cuban or whatever said
Speaker 2: that about let's say Tulci Gabbard or Trump himself, there
Speaker 2: would be quite a reaction, you know, coming coming from
Speaker 2: that side with that level of like, you know, visceral,
Speaker 2: violent type rhetoric.
Speaker 1: I mean, again, though it's a warhawk comment, it's like, hey,
Speaker 1: she doesn't work, that's a chicken hawk point, that's you know.
Speaker 1: I mean, I remember saying shit like that about George W. Bush,
Speaker 1: right like, and I think it was fine. Anyway, Look,
Speaker 1: and what do you think.
Speaker 5: I think it's not fair for people to want descriptions
Speaker 5: of war to be more sanitized like that, because that's
Speaker 5: basically what they're saying. They're saying, it's okay to call
Speaker 5: somebody at chicken hawk, Uh, but you should leave it
Speaker 5: at chicken hawk and say they should go to war.
Speaker 5: But but when you get into the grizzly details of
Speaker 5: what war is like, that's that's a little bit too much.
Speaker 5: But that is the essence of the chicken hawk critique
Speaker 5: that war is hell and that nobody who's ever experienced
Speaker 5: the hell of it would think it is anything other
Speaker 5: than hell. Now, some people who've experienced it still think
Speaker 5: it's necessary to create the world that we want to
Speaker 5: live in, et cetera. But the idea is that it
Speaker 5: is hell, and it is grizzly, and people do have guns,
Speaker 5: you know, pointed at their pointed at their face, and
Speaker 5: bullets that you know, ripped through their skulls and their lives.
Speaker 5: And that's that's seeing it change Seeing it and being
Speaker 5: part of it changes you. So I think it's just
Speaker 5: kind of unfair to say, like, you can call someone
Speaker 5: a chicken hawk, but you can't like describe the grizzly
Speaker 5: details of war because that that's the whole Yeah, well
Speaker 5: at all is the whole. That's the whole point.
Speaker 2: There's of course another element to this, which is that
Speaker 2: Trump himself used bots birth to get down observing liberals.
Speaker 1: Liberals, he's a draft dodger.
Speaker 2: It's true.
Speaker 1: It's a totally fine thing to say too.
Speaker 4: Yeah, but his own his own Vietnam you guys all know.
Speaker 5: Oh yeah, not getting STDs and thank you for So.
Speaker 2: This is Liz Cheney's response. She says, this is how
Speaker 2: dictators destroy free nations. They threaten those who speak against
Speaker 2: them with death. We cannot entrust our country and our
Speaker 2: freedom to a petty, vindictive, cruel, unstable man who wants
Speaker 2: to be a tyrant. And so, you know, I think
Speaker 2: Democrats feel, like, you know, while they're trying to lay
Speaker 2: the fascist charge at his feet, and they're also trying
Speaker 2: to change the topic from a news cycle about whether
Speaker 2: or not Joe Biden said that Trump's supporters are quote
Speaker 2: unquote garbage. I think they are happy to seize on
Speaker 2: these comments as well, and as a reminder that of
Speaker 2: some of the things that people really don't like about
Speaker 2: Donald Trump. And you know, I've been thinking about this
Speaker 2: hour because we've been going back and forth a little
Speaker 2: bit on this. But part of what has made Trump
Speaker 2: hold up so well in this election is that his
Speaker 2: approval rating is significantly higher than he used to be,
Speaker 2: and so he's still underwater in most polls, you know,
Speaker 2: some amount, but not nearly where he used to be.
Speaker 2: And so Democrats paid advertisements are by and large going
Speaker 2: after like it's more of like a class war message.
Speaker 2: But obviously Kamala Di the Ellipse speech, they amplified the
Speaker 2: comments from John Kelly saying, Hey, I serve with this guy,
Speaker 2: and he is a fascist. And so they feel like
Speaker 2: this very visceral invocation of violent rhetoric kind of fuels
Speaker 2: and serves to people of some of the elements of
Speaker 2: him that they don't like and plays into their argument
Speaker 2: about who he is.
Speaker 1: Ultimately, Okay, I'll give it to them. I mean, because
Speaker 1: they've got the media on their side. Basically, they are
Speaker 1: literally saying on CNN all morning, they're like, oh, if
Speaker 1: he wants to put Trump or Liz Cheney in a
Speaker 1: firing squad, if I combined with that with the senior figure,
Speaker 1: I will say yeah, that's a problem. Now again, I
Speaker 1: don't think I think it's a dishonest presentation by CNN
Speaker 1: and MSNBC based on that. But if the senior vote
Speaker 1: is correct the numbers they're coming out right now. I mean,
Speaker 1: just anecdotally, seniors who I've spoken to, they bring up
Speaker 1: the wildest shit. You know, They'll be like, oh, did
Speaker 1: you see Trump called you know, veteran suckers and loser.
Speaker 1: I'm like, bro, what, Like this's a bullshit store. And
Speaker 1: then but they don't want to hear it, like that's
Speaker 1: the type of stuff that they take in or the
Speaker 1: type of things that piss them off. More. What I'll
Speaker 1: say is just so different than I think a lot
Speaker 1: of people who watch our show. So I could see
Speaker 1: this presentation by CNN and MSNBC and all that feeding
Speaker 1: into that crystal because that is specifically the that is
Speaker 1: the strategy of the Harris Cheney voter. I mean, like
Speaker 1: we see this for example in PA at that event.
Speaker 1: It was not an accident, Ryan, You'll know. It was
Speaker 1: in Malvern, one of the wealthiest, I believe, the wealthiest city,
Speaker 1: one of the wealthiest in the mainline suburban Philadelphia area.
Speaker 1: So I could see it, and that you know a
Speaker 1: lot of older voters there in that In that respect,
Speaker 1: it's true.
Speaker 2: Look, I think there are decorum voters absolutely, you know,
Speaker 2: not just older. I think I don't. I don't think
Speaker 2: just older. I think, you know, the suburban women vote
Speaker 2: that they're chasing very hard. Like I think there are
Speaker 2: who you know, respectless Cheney for whatever reason, whether they
Speaker 2: should or not as actually I don't even think that's
Speaker 2: a question. They shouldn't. But but yeah, I think there
Speaker 2: is a decorum voter out there who feels like these
Speaker 2: comments are too far, who don't want the visceral description
Speaker 2: of war, even though that should be put in our
Speaker 2: face more often. To your point, Ryan.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm in the minority on this.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I was just gonna say the reason
Speaker 4: that list Cheney is being deployed specifically for women voters
Speaker 4: and so the bro code thing, you know, you know,
Speaker 4: JD Vance on Joe Rogan yesterday, and I think soccer
Speaker 4: and I probably agree that he did a good job
Speaker 4: for a number of reasons, and that that will be
Speaker 4: helpful for a number of reasons. Although people probably don't
Speaker 4: elect vote to elect vice presidents. But this Cheney is
Speaker 4: specifically being used by Democrats to get this very small
Speaker 4: slice of the electorate pie, which is suburban swing women
Speaker 4: voters who might be persuaded by Liz Cheney to vote
Speaker 4: for Kamala Harris.
Speaker 3: And so it's not a huge group of people.
Speaker 4: But Trump then saying, yeah, you see what happens if
Speaker 4: she gets blasted in the face or you put a
Speaker 4: rifle in her fashion. Misrepresent the comments, but put a
Speaker 4: gun in her face. Those people are probably already leaning
Speaker 4: towards Kamala Harris. But it's definitely not helpful because the
Speaker 4: media is going to run with it all dancy, and
Speaker 4: then it will.
Speaker 2: Just not Probably the closing argument of the Republicans dreams.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, we're not going to cover j D
Speaker 1: because we're out of time. But I mean, this is
Speaker 1: the problem with having somebody who just talks a lot
Speaker 1: like and you know, it's like, if you compare the appearances,
Speaker 1: I challenge I challenge people out there listen to Trump
Speaker 1: and JD on Rogan back to back, same interviewer, you know, like,
Speaker 1: same studio and all that, and you tell me who
Speaker 1: has a better command to the facts, a better articulation
Speaker 1: of the case, a better like cares about you like
Speaker 1: better on every single thing that people say that they like.
Speaker 1: But then also we know that, you know, Trump is
Speaker 1: the person who won the GOP primary, so that also
Speaker 1: tells us quite a bit about what those voters want
Speaker 1: from him. So there you go.
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, I think we'll probably maybe cover on Monday. Sorry,
Speaker 2: you and I can talk more about the JD Van's interview.
Speaker 2: But I mean, he has positioned himself very well within
Speaker 2: the Republican Party, you know. But now it all comes
Speaker 2: down to Trump. How this election goes. What does he win,
Speaker 2: does he lose? What does the stop this? What is
Speaker 2: the flavor of the stop the steal this time? If
Speaker 2: Trump does lose, does JD go along with it? Like
Speaker 2: there's still a lot of trip wires for him, but
Speaker 2: no doubt in terms of like the conservative base, he
Speaker 2: has done himself a lot of favors there.
Speaker 1: Very true. All right, that's a good tease, Ryan M.
Speaker 1: Thank you for joining us, guys. This was fun, good time.
Speaker 4: Like you guys opened up by saying it was a
Speaker 4: Friday points or points Friday, because that.
Speaker 2: What you do. Yeah, He's a Friday points.
Speaker 4: Are they breaking or are they countering? Nobody knows the Judge,
Speaker 4: we report you decide A.
Speaker 2: Sorry, have a good weekend y'all. Bye.