1 00:00:15,356 --> 00:00:15,836 Speaker 1: Pushkin. 2 00:00:20,676 --> 00:00:25,196 Speaker 2: Here are three statements that are all true. Statement number one, 3 00:00:26,036 --> 00:00:29,956 Speaker 2: the world is awful. This one is pretty self explanatory, 4 00:00:30,076 --> 00:00:35,156 Speaker 2: no need to dwell. Statement number two, the world is 5 00:00:35,316 --> 00:00:38,996 Speaker 2: better than it used to be. This one, in my experience, 6 00:00:39,396 --> 00:00:43,916 Speaker 2: tends to generate pushback that ranges from mild skepticism to 7 00:00:44,156 --> 00:00:49,556 Speaker 2: outright hostility. And yet along many dimensions, it is clearly true. 8 00:00:49,636 --> 00:00:52,596 Speaker 2: You know, just in the past few decades, the infant 9 00:00:52,596 --> 00:00:55,396 Speaker 2: mortality rate around the world has fallen by a lot, 10 00:00:55,796 --> 00:00:58,556 Speaker 2: as has the share of people living in extreme poverty. 11 00:00:58,996 --> 00:01:02,036 Speaker 2: Literacy rates are going up around the world. Lots of 12 00:01:02,116 --> 00:01:06,196 Speaker 2: things are getting better, so that is statement number two. 13 00:01:06,916 --> 00:01:11,676 Speaker 2: And then finally statement three, the world can be better. 14 00:01:11,836 --> 00:01:14,876 Speaker 2: The world can be better than it is now. This 15 00:01:14,956 --> 00:01:18,556 Speaker 2: one I find when I say it, people will sort 16 00:01:18,556 --> 00:01:19,796 Speaker 2: of go along with it. 17 00:01:19,956 --> 00:01:21,396 Speaker 1: But without conviction. 18 00:01:21,796 --> 00:01:24,396 Speaker 2: Right like, maybe theoretically the world can be better, but 19 00:01:24,436 --> 00:01:28,876 Speaker 2: they don't really believe it. And yet, as list item 20 00:01:28,956 --> 00:01:32,036 Speaker 2: number two reminds us, the world is better than it 21 00:01:32,156 --> 00:01:35,796 Speaker 2: used to be in many ways, it's true. The world 22 00:01:36,036 --> 00:01:45,836 Speaker 2: really can get better. I'm Jacob Goldstein, and this is 23 00:01:45,876 --> 00:01:50,036 Speaker 2: what's your problem. My guest today is Hannah Ritchie. Hannah 24 00:01:50,116 --> 00:01:52,996 Speaker 2: is a data scientist and the deputy editor of Our 25 00:01:53,036 --> 00:01:57,516 Speaker 2: World in Data, which is an amazing online publication home 26 00:01:57,556 --> 00:02:01,996 Speaker 2: of many great graphs about the world. And Hannah is 27 00:02:02,236 --> 00:02:05,556 Speaker 2: also the author of the relatively new book Not the 28 00:02:05,676 --> 00:02:07,836 Speaker 2: End of the World, How we Can be the First 29 00:02:07,876 --> 00:02:12,516 Speaker 2: generation to build a sustainable planet. The book uses that 30 00:02:12,796 --> 00:02:15,996 Speaker 2: three part framework I just talked about. Things are bad, 31 00:02:16,436 --> 00:02:18,676 Speaker 2: things are better than they used to be, things can 32 00:02:18,716 --> 00:02:21,756 Speaker 2: be better than they are now, and it presents a 33 00:02:21,876 --> 00:02:26,316 Speaker 2: fact based, non moralistic set of approaches to solving some 34 00:02:26,356 --> 00:02:30,636 Speaker 2: of the world's big problems. In our conversation, Hannah and 35 00:02:30,676 --> 00:02:34,316 Speaker 2: I wound up focusing on food, focusing on the way 36 00:02:34,356 --> 00:02:36,956 Speaker 2: we eat, because the way we eat is really tied 37 00:02:37,076 --> 00:02:39,476 Speaker 2: up with a lot of the big problems that Hannah 38 00:02:39,476 --> 00:02:44,156 Speaker 2: focuses on in the book, deforestation, biodiversity loss, and of 39 00:02:44,156 --> 00:02:47,076 Speaker 2: course climate change. But to start, I asked her about 40 00:02:47,116 --> 00:02:50,116 Speaker 2: part two of her framework, that idea that the world 41 00:02:50,276 --> 00:02:53,116 Speaker 2: is better than it used to be. In particular, I 42 00:02:53,156 --> 00:02:56,956 Speaker 2: was curious why she thinks that idea generates so much pushback. 43 00:02:57,476 --> 00:03:02,756 Speaker 2: It's interesting because when you say, when I say, in 44 00:03:02,756 --> 00:03:05,076 Speaker 2: my experience, the world is much better than it used 45 00:03:05,076 --> 00:03:08,956 Speaker 2: to be, people don't believe me, or they get mad, 46 00:03:11,356 --> 00:03:12,396 Speaker 2: which is interesting. 47 00:03:12,916 --> 00:03:14,756 Speaker 1: Has that been your experience at all? 48 00:03:15,476 --> 00:03:17,236 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think, I mean, I think the key thing 49 00:03:17,316 --> 00:03:20,636 Speaker 3: about this framework is that you really need to be 50 00:03:20,636 --> 00:03:22,876 Speaker 3: able to hold all feevings in your head at the 51 00:03:22,956 --> 00:03:25,316 Speaker 3: same time. I think naturally, it's just very difficult for 52 00:03:25,396 --> 00:03:28,196 Speaker 3: us to do. I think as soon as anyone says 53 00:03:28,196 --> 00:03:31,996 Speaker 3: anything positive, our mind automatically goes to the negative. Right, 54 00:03:32,036 --> 00:03:36,196 Speaker 3: So if I say we've made amazing progress on reducing 55 00:03:36,196 --> 00:03:39,596 Speaker 3: global hunger, your automatic reaction is to go to, well, yeah, 56 00:03:39,636 --> 00:03:42,036 Speaker 3: but there's still eight hundred million people that are hungry, 57 00:03:42,036 --> 00:03:44,316 Speaker 3: which is also absolutely true, right, But there is this 58 00:03:44,396 --> 00:03:47,756 Speaker 3: pool in us, and it's definitely had that reaction from 59 00:03:47,836 --> 00:03:50,156 Speaker 3: the book, that there is this gut reaction of wanting 60 00:03:50,196 --> 00:03:52,956 Speaker 3: to counter it with the kind of almost cynical or 61 00:03:52,996 --> 00:03:57,636 Speaker 3: protective kind of blanket of well, we shouldn't be complacent 62 00:03:57,636 --> 00:03:59,636 Speaker 3: about this because we've still got a massive problem. 63 00:03:59,876 --> 00:04:01,956 Speaker 1: Sometimes it goes even farther than that. 64 00:04:02,076 --> 00:04:05,236 Speaker 2: I mean, that is certainly true, and that is more 65 00:04:05,316 --> 00:04:08,556 Speaker 2: easy to understand, right, because as you say, one shouldn't 66 00:04:08,556 --> 00:04:10,956 Speaker 2: be complace, one shouldn't just live here comfortably in the 67 00:04:10,956 --> 00:04:15,196 Speaker 2: developed world and say Oh, everything's great, but people don't 68 00:04:15,236 --> 00:04:18,476 Speaker 2: even want to believe that things are good here relative 69 00:04:18,476 --> 00:04:21,636 Speaker 2: to one hundred years ago. And that one is a 70 00:04:21,676 --> 00:04:25,796 Speaker 2: little bit harder to understand, Like why do you think 71 00:04:25,836 --> 00:04:28,956 Speaker 2: people don't believe that things are better than they were 72 00:04:29,396 --> 00:04:30,316 Speaker 2: one hundred years ago? 73 00:04:30,596 --> 00:04:32,796 Speaker 3: Say, I mean, I think one thing is that we 74 00:04:32,876 --> 00:04:33,916 Speaker 3: just don't look at data. 75 00:04:34,076 --> 00:04:34,196 Speaker 1: Right. 76 00:04:34,236 --> 00:04:36,436 Speaker 3: You can only see this through data. Right, You're never 77 00:04:36,476 --> 00:04:38,476 Speaker 3: going to get this in the news because the news 78 00:04:38,516 --> 00:04:40,676 Speaker 3: covers what's happened in the last hour in the world. 79 00:04:40,716 --> 00:04:42,676 Speaker 3: So is an event, right, it's an event that can 80 00:04:42,716 --> 00:04:45,716 Speaker 3: make a headline. It's a natural disaster, it's a war, 81 00:04:46,036 --> 00:04:48,996 Speaker 3: it's a murder, it's a really, really bad event, which 82 00:04:49,036 --> 00:04:52,836 Speaker 3: is one of the reasons why the news skews negative, 83 00:04:53,396 --> 00:04:56,196 Speaker 3: whereas a lot of the progress we've made, you know, 84 00:04:56,236 --> 00:04:59,756 Speaker 3: there's no headline really you can run because it happens gradually, 85 00:04:59,796 --> 00:05:01,476 Speaker 3: day after day after day after day. 86 00:05:01,836 --> 00:05:05,756 Speaker 2: It's not a headline story that globally, infant mortality has 87 00:05:05,876 --> 00:05:08,596 Speaker 2: fallen a huge amount in the last thirty years, even 88 00:05:08,636 --> 00:05:10,756 Speaker 2: though in terms of human welfare it's one of the 89 00:05:10,796 --> 00:05:13,556 Speaker 2: most important things that happened this century so far. 90 00:05:13,756 --> 00:05:16,876 Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, and I think that's true for like most 91 00:05:16,876 --> 00:05:20,236 Speaker 3: of our progress stories that they happen incrementally over time, 92 00:05:20,476 --> 00:05:23,276 Speaker 3: but when you add that up over decades, you just 93 00:05:23,356 --> 00:05:26,116 Speaker 3: have this like profound change that's happened in the world. 94 00:05:26,436 --> 00:05:28,756 Speaker 3: And I think because it's just out of pace with 95 00:05:28,796 --> 00:05:31,156 Speaker 3: the news cycle, we just don't get it right. We 96 00:05:31,276 --> 00:05:35,276 Speaker 3: just don't see it. Especially in rich countries in the world. 97 00:05:35,676 --> 00:05:39,996 Speaker 3: We often have this patronizing perception that the rest of 98 00:05:40,036 --> 00:05:44,196 Speaker 3: the world has stagnated or hasn't moved forward, right, So 99 00:05:44,236 --> 00:05:46,956 Speaker 3: we think, okay, things might be okay where I am, 100 00:05:47,396 --> 00:05:50,556 Speaker 3: but you know, countries in Africa or countries in Asia, 101 00:05:50,636 --> 00:05:53,116 Speaker 3: they're just as poor and bad off as they were 102 00:05:53,316 --> 00:05:56,636 Speaker 3: fifty years ago, when actually they are. Child mortality rates 103 00:05:56,636 --> 00:06:01,436 Speaker 3: have fallen, more kids are getting vaccinated, hungered down, poverties down. 104 00:06:01,476 --> 00:06:04,396 Speaker 3: So I think we have this perception that many countries 105 00:06:04,436 --> 00:06:06,836 Speaker 3: in the world are stuck where they were fifty years ago, 106 00:06:06,876 --> 00:06:08,716 Speaker 3: and that's just not true. And it's because we often 107 00:06:08,756 --> 00:06:11,836 Speaker 3: again don't see these stories. And the news they're either 108 00:06:12,276 --> 00:06:15,236 Speaker 3: our news in the US or Europe, is very US 109 00:06:15,356 --> 00:06:18,756 Speaker 3: or Europe orientated, and the stuff we hear from other 110 00:06:18,916 --> 00:06:21,876 Speaker 3: parts of the world again attend to be these negative stories. 111 00:06:22,956 --> 00:06:28,836 Speaker 2: So the book, the book does talk about a lot 112 00:06:28,876 --> 00:06:30,276 Speaker 2: of stuff that's wrong, right. 113 00:06:30,356 --> 00:06:31,556 Speaker 1: The book is certainly not. 114 00:06:34,436 --> 00:06:40,516 Speaker 2: Pollyanna ish, I would say, but it approaches it with 115 00:06:41,116 --> 00:06:43,676 Speaker 2: a sort of practical like, let's figure out how to 116 00:06:43,756 --> 00:06:50,236 Speaker 2: solve this framework, and you step through most of the 117 00:06:50,276 --> 00:06:52,996 Speaker 2: big things that seem terribly wrong, or many of the 118 00:06:52,996 --> 00:06:56,916 Speaker 2: big things that seem terribly wrong climate change, over fishing, deforestation, 119 00:06:58,796 --> 00:07:02,756 Speaker 2: et cetera. I want to talk at some length about 120 00:07:02,916 --> 00:07:06,116 Speaker 2: one chapter in particular, because, as you say in the book, 121 00:07:06,156 --> 00:07:09,996 Speaker 2: it's sort of a nexus. It's a subject that touches 122 00:07:10,036 --> 00:07:13,356 Speaker 2: on all of these other subjects, really, and that is 123 00:07:13,516 --> 00:07:16,796 Speaker 2: food in part I mean, you know, obviously climate change 124 00:07:16,876 --> 00:07:19,036 Speaker 2: is the other one that is sort of this grand thing. 125 00:07:19,116 --> 00:07:20,036 Speaker 1: But food is. 126 00:07:21,876 --> 00:07:25,516 Speaker 2: Very important and very underdiscussed in the context of climate change. Right, 127 00:07:26,036 --> 00:07:28,916 Speaker 2: So let's talk about food at some length. 128 00:07:28,716 --> 00:07:29,756 Speaker 1: And let's start. 129 00:07:29,996 --> 00:07:34,676 Speaker 2: Let's use that framework that you use more generally with 130 00:07:35,796 --> 00:07:37,716 Speaker 2: the world is much better than it used to be 131 00:07:37,796 --> 00:07:40,196 Speaker 2: in many ways. The world is still bad in many ways, 132 00:07:40,236 --> 00:07:43,276 Speaker 2: and the world can be better. Let's apply that to food. 133 00:07:43,396 --> 00:07:47,556 Speaker 2: So how is food much better than it used to be? 134 00:07:49,236 --> 00:07:52,276 Speaker 3: So when you look at it through a human hunger lens. 135 00:07:52,796 --> 00:07:57,076 Speaker 3: So today around just under ten percent of the world 136 00:07:57,476 --> 00:07:59,396 Speaker 3: are sto go hungry, which means they just don't get 137 00:07:59,476 --> 00:08:02,396 Speaker 3: enough calories to eat. So that's around eight hundred million people. 138 00:08:02,596 --> 00:08:04,396 Speaker 1: That's the still very bad piece. 139 00:08:04,516 --> 00:08:06,956 Speaker 3: This is still very bad piece. But if you were 140 00:08:06,996 --> 00:08:09,596 Speaker 3: to go back a century, you know, the share of 141 00:08:09,636 --> 00:08:12,756 Speaker 3: the world that go hungry was way higher than it was. 142 00:08:13,796 --> 00:08:16,036 Speaker 2: Is there are there credible estimates for what it was 143 00:08:16,076 --> 00:08:16,996 Speaker 2: one hundred years ago. 144 00:08:17,676 --> 00:08:21,636 Speaker 3: The long term data on this is more shaky, i'd say, 145 00:08:22,156 --> 00:08:25,436 Speaker 3: but you're definitely talking about in most regions well over 146 00:08:25,556 --> 00:08:28,996 Speaker 3: a third if not more, people were not getting enough calories. 147 00:08:28,636 --> 00:08:32,236 Speaker 2: To eat, well over a third as opposed to ten percent. 148 00:08:32,316 --> 00:08:35,116 Speaker 2: So that is improvement. I mean, what if you go back, 149 00:08:35,436 --> 00:08:39,156 Speaker 2: if you go back two hundred years, what is the 150 00:08:39,236 --> 00:08:42,156 Speaker 2: rough estimate of what percentage of people on earth were 151 00:08:42,196 --> 00:08:43,156 Speaker 2: not getting enough to eat? 152 00:08:44,076 --> 00:08:46,876 Speaker 3: I mean, I'd say probably even higher still, and I'd 153 00:08:46,876 --> 00:08:51,156 Speaker 3: say most of the improvements in food and agricultural productivity 154 00:08:51,276 --> 00:08:54,476 Speaker 3: have came really in the last century, but in particular 155 00:08:54,516 --> 00:08:57,036 Speaker 3: in the last fifty years. So I think if you 156 00:08:57,076 --> 00:08:59,276 Speaker 3: were to look at hunger rates a century ago or 157 00:08:59,276 --> 00:09:02,156 Speaker 3: two centuries ago, they'd all be very very high. And 158 00:09:02,196 --> 00:09:05,436 Speaker 3: again i'd say estimates are fuzzy, but you'd say at 159 00:09:05,476 --> 00:09:08,116 Speaker 3: least well over a third, if not over half, of 160 00:09:08,116 --> 00:09:09,156 Speaker 3: people weren't getting. 161 00:09:08,956 --> 00:09:13,036 Speaker 2: Enough, yeah, as compared to today where it's something like 162 00:09:13,236 --> 00:09:18,276 Speaker 2: ninety percent of people are getting enough food to eat. 163 00:09:17,676 --> 00:09:21,196 Speaker 2: So I mean, obviously there are a few key breakthroughs 164 00:09:21,236 --> 00:09:24,276 Speaker 2: in like getting more food per acre of land per 165 00:09:24,356 --> 00:09:29,276 Speaker 2: unit of land, right, nitrogen fertilizer, and then the Haberbosch process, 166 00:09:29,676 --> 00:09:31,996 Speaker 2: which weirdly we just talked about on the show, for 167 00:09:32,916 --> 00:09:36,996 Speaker 2: synthesizing nitrogen fertilizer. And then there's this other moment, a 168 00:09:37,076 --> 00:09:40,716 Speaker 2: later moment that you talk about in the book, which 169 00:09:40,756 --> 00:09:43,796 Speaker 2: is basically one guy, one of these amazing one guy 170 00:09:43,916 --> 00:09:47,196 Speaker 2: changes the world stories, and it's Norman Borlog. So tell 171 00:09:47,236 --> 00:09:48,436 Speaker 2: me about Norman Borlog. 172 00:09:49,036 --> 00:09:53,836 Speaker 3: So, Norman Borlog was a kind of agricultural scientist, and 173 00:09:54,116 --> 00:09:59,196 Speaker 3: he was basically recruited initially to go to Mexico to 174 00:09:59,276 --> 00:10:02,756 Speaker 3: work out how Mexicans could grow more food per unit 175 00:10:02,796 --> 00:10:05,676 Speaker 3: of land, so how to increase agricultural productivity or crop 176 00:10:05,716 --> 00:10:08,716 Speaker 3: yield in Mexico. And he came at us for a 177 00:10:08,756 --> 00:10:12,116 Speaker 3: genet reading lens, so trying to work out what combination 178 00:10:12,636 --> 00:10:18,316 Speaker 3: of crop strains might be able to produce us and 179 00:10:18,396 --> 00:10:20,036 Speaker 3: it was a very long process. There's a lot of 180 00:10:20,076 --> 00:10:20,916 Speaker 3: trial and error. 181 00:10:20,996 --> 00:10:23,116 Speaker 2: Right, just to be clear, right, what this is like 182 00:10:23,156 --> 00:10:26,196 Speaker 2: the sixties. This is not like GMO, This is pregmo, right, 183 00:10:26,236 --> 00:10:30,996 Speaker 2: this is just like old school Mendelian crosses, farmer hybrid 184 00:10:31,156 --> 00:10:32,756 Speaker 2: like that, like the old school style. 185 00:10:32,836 --> 00:10:33,636 Speaker 1: Yeah, old school. 186 00:10:33,716 --> 00:10:36,996 Speaker 3: So lots of trial and error, lots of trying a 187 00:10:37,036 --> 00:10:40,636 Speaker 3: crop not performing well, trying another crop not performing well, 188 00:10:41,356 --> 00:10:43,596 Speaker 3: and kind of got to the stage where he was 189 00:10:43,836 --> 00:10:45,476 Speaker 3: kind of sent out on this mission and kind of 190 00:10:45,556 --> 00:10:48,076 Speaker 3: left there is like, oh, well, he'll be over there 191 00:10:48,116 --> 00:10:50,116 Speaker 3: trying to do this. We're kind of skeptical at of work, 192 00:10:50,196 --> 00:10:52,876 Speaker 3: but you know, he's got a job over there. Good luck, 193 00:10:54,116 --> 00:10:57,196 Speaker 3: And he finally cracks it and it makes a massive 194 00:10:57,316 --> 00:11:00,596 Speaker 3: difference to crop yields in Mexico, talking about a large, 195 00:11:00,676 --> 00:11:04,476 Speaker 3: large increase. Mexico moved from being a net importer of 196 00:11:04,476 --> 00:11:08,236 Speaker 3: food to a net exporter of food and from there 197 00:11:08,276 --> 00:11:10,316 Speaker 3: this really kicked off eat what we frame as kind 198 00:11:10,356 --> 00:11:14,996 Speaker 3: of agricultural revolution. And he went to South Asia in 199 00:11:15,036 --> 00:11:17,556 Speaker 3: Pakistan and India and did the same Right, so again 200 00:11:17,796 --> 00:11:21,796 Speaker 3: their crop yields were extremely low during that period. There 201 00:11:21,876 --> 00:11:26,916 Speaker 3: was lots of concerns about especially food shortage in that region, 202 00:11:26,956 --> 00:11:29,276 Speaker 3: but more broadly, there was lots of concerns at the 203 00:11:29,276 --> 00:11:35,276 Speaker 3: time about a global food shortage, huge famines, huge levels 204 00:11:35,316 --> 00:11:35,876 Speaker 3: of hunger. 205 00:11:36,236 --> 00:11:36,396 Speaker 1: Right. 206 00:11:36,436 --> 00:11:40,716 Speaker 2: Well, and you talk about Paul Erlik, the famous biologist 207 00:11:41,156 --> 00:11:45,076 Speaker 2: who in retrospect looks quite bad, right, who wrote this 208 00:11:45,116 --> 00:11:49,276 Speaker 2: best selling book essentially saying, we are screwed already. It's 209 00:11:49,316 --> 00:11:52,116 Speaker 2: baked in. A billion people are going to starve. We 210 00:11:52,236 --> 00:11:54,356 Speaker 2: just got to figure out who, because there's no way 211 00:11:54,396 --> 00:11:56,756 Speaker 2: we can grow enough food to feed all the people who. 212 00:11:56,556 --> 00:11:57,356 Speaker 1: Have just been born. 213 00:11:57,756 --> 00:12:01,316 Speaker 3: Right, So nineteen sixty eight he comes out with this book, 214 00:12:01,356 --> 00:12:04,156 Speaker 3: The Population Bomb, and yes, that was his thesis. There's 215 00:12:04,196 --> 00:12:06,276 Speaker 3: just far too many people on the planet. We've got 216 00:12:06,276 --> 00:12:09,236 Speaker 3: this major global food crisis coming and many men, many 217 00:12:09,276 --> 00:12:11,916 Speaker 3: people are going to die from this. That didn't happen. 218 00:12:12,236 --> 00:12:14,036 Speaker 3: One of the reasons it didn't happen was because of 219 00:12:14,036 --> 00:12:18,116 Speaker 3: Norman Blorog and the Green Revolution. So we we vastly 220 00:12:18,196 --> 00:12:23,756 Speaker 3: underestimated how much we could increase crop yields across the world. 221 00:12:24,036 --> 00:12:26,596 Speaker 2: So staying for a moment on the theme of the 222 00:12:26,636 --> 00:12:27,956 Speaker 2: world is much better than it. 223 00:12:27,956 --> 00:12:30,916 Speaker 1: Used to be. One thing that I. 224 00:12:30,316 --> 00:12:32,396 Speaker 2: Didn't know before I read your book that I learned 225 00:12:32,396 --> 00:12:37,956 Speaker 2: from the book is that the world has passed peak 226 00:12:37,996 --> 00:12:43,356 Speaker 2: fertilizer use and has passed or almost passed peak land 227 00:12:43,436 --> 00:12:48,836 Speaker 2: use for agriculture, which was surprising to me and encouraging. 228 00:12:48,956 --> 00:12:51,396 Speaker 2: Tell me about Tell me about those facts. 229 00:12:51,916 --> 00:12:56,396 Speaker 3: So peak fertilizer use, I wouldn't say definitively that we're 230 00:12:56,436 --> 00:12:58,396 Speaker 3: past the peak. I think we're kind of being on 231 00:12:58,396 --> 00:13:01,756 Speaker 3: this kind of plateau. We saw really really steep rise 232 00:13:01,796 --> 00:13:05,196 Speaker 3: in global fertilizer use in the nineteen nineties and especially 233 00:13:05,236 --> 00:13:08,156 Speaker 3: the early two thousands. If you look over the last 234 00:13:08,836 --> 00:13:11,556 Speaker 3: day care, so it's kind of been leveling off, which 235 00:13:11,556 --> 00:13:13,836 Speaker 3: I think goes against people's intuitions. I think they'd think, 236 00:13:14,116 --> 00:13:16,156 Speaker 3: you know, we're just still going through the roof. We're 237 00:13:16,196 --> 00:13:20,756 Speaker 3: using far more fertilizer than ever before. But no, we 238 00:13:20,836 --> 00:13:23,676 Speaker 3: look like we're kind of stabilizing, and and part of 239 00:13:23,716 --> 00:13:26,076 Speaker 3: that is due to some cooking hunters are still in 240 00:13:26,076 --> 00:13:27,836 Speaker 3: the increase, and I actually think it's good at their 241 00:13:27,836 --> 00:13:29,836 Speaker 3: still in the increase. As you said, like one of 242 00:13:29,876 --> 00:13:33,276 Speaker 3: the key innovations that have helped to feed the world 243 00:13:33,356 --> 00:13:36,836 Speaker 3: has been the use of fertilizer, and some countries still 244 00:13:36,956 --> 00:13:40,516 Speaker 3: don't have enough, but some countries definitely overuse it and 245 00:13:40,556 --> 00:13:42,996 Speaker 3: overuse it to the point where it's just not even 246 00:13:43,156 --> 00:13:46,556 Speaker 3: cost effective for farmers to be using that much. But 247 00:13:46,636 --> 00:13:49,636 Speaker 3: over the last few decades, some countries have dramatically reduced 248 00:13:49,716 --> 00:13:53,796 Speaker 3: fertilizer use without sacrificing you old right, So fertilizer use 249 00:13:54,196 --> 00:13:57,916 Speaker 3: in Europe in particular has gone down, and yields have 250 00:13:58,036 --> 00:14:01,956 Speaker 3: either stayed the same or have continued to increase, even 251 00:14:01,996 --> 00:14:04,276 Speaker 3: in China. So China, again it looks like it's now 252 00:14:04,396 --> 00:14:08,316 Speaker 3: past peak fertilizer use. So fertilizer use and pesticide use 253 00:14:08,396 --> 00:14:11,476 Speaker 3: in China has now been fallen, and I actually think 254 00:14:11,476 --> 00:14:14,596 Speaker 3: that that could fall quite quickly. And part of the 255 00:14:15,676 --> 00:14:17,836 Speaker 3: way that China has done that has actually been through 256 00:14:17,996 --> 00:14:22,196 Speaker 3: large scale education programs for farmers on how to use 257 00:14:22,236 --> 00:14:25,796 Speaker 3: this stuff more effectively. And again it's cost effective for 258 00:14:25,956 --> 00:14:27,916 Speaker 3: a farmer to learn that. 259 00:14:28,676 --> 00:14:31,716 Speaker 2: We're about to get to why the world is still 260 00:14:31,756 --> 00:14:33,876 Speaker 2: bad in terms of food, But before we do, is 261 00:14:33,876 --> 00:14:36,676 Speaker 2: there anything else we should do on why the world 262 00:14:36,796 --> 00:14:37,596 Speaker 2: is much better? 263 00:14:39,956 --> 00:14:42,636 Speaker 3: I think what people underestimate and I actually think this 264 00:14:42,716 --> 00:14:45,876 Speaker 3: is a good and a bad thing. I think people 265 00:14:46,116 --> 00:14:50,276 Speaker 3: just underestimate how good we've got producing food. I think 266 00:14:50,276 --> 00:14:52,516 Speaker 3: they don't have a sense of scale in their head 267 00:14:52,636 --> 00:14:56,836 Speaker 3: about how much food we can actually produce. So if 268 00:14:56,836 --> 00:14:59,396 Speaker 3: you say that the average person in the world needs 269 00:15:00,316 --> 00:15:03,156 Speaker 3: around two thousand to two and a half thousand calories 270 00:15:03,196 --> 00:15:05,876 Speaker 3: per person per day, depending on their size and gender, 271 00:15:05,876 --> 00:15:11,716 Speaker 3: et cetera. Because we know that some people don't get 272 00:15:11,796 --> 00:15:15,396 Speaker 3: enough calories and some people probably over consume a bit, right, 273 00:15:15,476 --> 00:15:18,396 Speaker 3: we might assume that that just about levels off, right, 274 00:15:18,476 --> 00:15:21,356 Speaker 3: balances each other out, so we maybe produce just enough 275 00:15:21,356 --> 00:15:23,316 Speaker 3: calories for everyone in the world, so maybe two and 276 00:15:23,316 --> 00:15:27,156 Speaker 3: a half thousand per person per day. The reality is 277 00:15:27,196 --> 00:15:32,076 Speaker 3: that we probably produce around twice as much as that, right, 278 00:15:32,156 --> 00:15:34,196 Speaker 3: So you're probably talking about four and a half to 279 00:15:34,276 --> 00:15:37,516 Speaker 3: five thousand calories per person per day if you were 280 00:15:37,556 --> 00:15:40,836 Speaker 3: to split it all equally. So we just are capable 281 00:15:40,836 --> 00:15:43,196 Speaker 3: of producing huge amounts of food. 282 00:15:43,596 --> 00:15:47,276 Speaker 2: So we produce enough food if we didn't waste any 283 00:15:47,756 --> 00:15:50,516 Speaker 2: to feed twice as many people as are on Earth today, 284 00:15:50,996 --> 00:15:53,756 Speaker 2: which is probably more people than we'll ever live on 285 00:15:53,796 --> 00:15:55,556 Speaker 2: Earth at once. Right, We're probably not going to get 286 00:15:55,596 --> 00:15:57,036 Speaker 2: to two x current population. 287 00:15:57,356 --> 00:15:59,236 Speaker 3: Right, So if you were to get to zero waste 288 00:15:59,556 --> 00:16:01,956 Speaker 3: food systems, and again this is not just about I 289 00:16:01,956 --> 00:16:04,316 Speaker 3: think what people think about as food waste, but if 290 00:16:04,316 --> 00:16:10,476 Speaker 3: you were to have a really really efficient distribution system, 291 00:16:10,996 --> 00:16:13,836 Speaker 3: we could Yeah, we could definitely feed ten billion, which 292 00:16:13,836 --> 00:16:15,836 Speaker 3: is what people are looking at in the future. 293 00:16:16,076 --> 00:16:16,716 Speaker 1: Yeah. 294 00:16:16,916 --> 00:16:19,996 Speaker 2: So right, So that's happy from the point of view 295 00:16:19,996 --> 00:16:24,036 Speaker 2: of there's definitely enough food. We have the technology to 296 00:16:24,156 --> 00:16:26,636 Speaker 2: know how the land to grow as much food as 297 00:16:26,636 --> 00:16:31,756 Speaker 2: we will need to feed people when we hit peak population. Okay, 298 00:16:31,836 --> 00:16:36,796 Speaker 2: let's talk about what's bad what's bad with food today? 299 00:16:37,116 --> 00:16:40,316 Speaker 2: And I think the place to start there is how 300 00:16:40,396 --> 00:16:44,156 Speaker 2: much of the earth we use for food, and in particular, 301 00:16:44,236 --> 00:16:46,956 Speaker 2: how much of the habitable land mass of the earth 302 00:16:46,956 --> 00:16:47,476 Speaker 2: we use for. 303 00:16:47,436 --> 00:16:49,516 Speaker 3: Food is a lot. So if you were to take 304 00:16:49,516 --> 00:16:53,356 Speaker 3: the world habitable land, which is basically land that's not 305 00:16:53,516 --> 00:16:57,796 Speaker 3: desert or not ice, then we use around half of 306 00:16:57,836 --> 00:16:58,716 Speaker 3: that for farming. 307 00:17:00,716 --> 00:17:03,116 Speaker 2: Half the Earth's land mass we use for growing food. 308 00:17:03,596 --> 00:17:06,556 Speaker 2: What share of that is for cows, either for growing 309 00:17:06,596 --> 00:17:10,036 Speaker 2: cows you know, rangeland or for growing food to feed cows. 310 00:17:10,916 --> 00:17:15,636 Speaker 3: So for Kaus specifically, it's probably around sixty. 311 00:17:15,356 --> 00:17:20,396 Speaker 2: Percent sixty percent of all agricultural land, so more than 312 00:17:20,436 --> 00:17:23,236 Speaker 2: a quarter of the habitable land mass of the earth 313 00:17:23,956 --> 00:17:26,756 Speaker 2: goes to growing cows and growing. 314 00:17:26,476 --> 00:17:27,236 Speaker 1: Food for cows. 315 00:17:27,436 --> 00:17:31,716 Speaker 2: Yeap, Zelli, That's that I think is the central wild 316 00:17:31,796 --> 00:17:34,436 Speaker 2: fact of your book to me, right, I think as 317 00:17:34,476 --> 00:17:36,956 Speaker 2: I read this chapter of your book and the book 318 00:17:36,996 --> 00:17:40,036 Speaker 2: more broadly, because this seems like the central chapter, cows 319 00:17:40,116 --> 00:17:44,156 Speaker 2: come out as the villain. Uh Is that a fair read? 320 00:17:45,956 --> 00:17:46,556 Speaker 3: A fair read? 321 00:17:46,916 --> 00:17:47,196 Speaker 1: Yeah? 322 00:17:47,276 --> 00:17:49,236 Speaker 2: I mean, villain is a moral word, right, and I 323 00:17:49,236 --> 00:17:51,996 Speaker 2: would like to use a non moral as my fault. 324 00:17:52,316 --> 00:17:55,116 Speaker 2: But like, I appreciate that you are not moralistic in 325 00:17:55,156 --> 00:17:57,236 Speaker 2: your telling. It's one of the things I particularly like 326 00:17:57,276 --> 00:17:59,956 Speaker 2: about this book. It's not like, here are the evil 327 00:17:59,996 --> 00:18:02,396 Speaker 2: people and I'm the good person exposing them. It's a 328 00:18:02,476 --> 00:18:06,796 Speaker 2: much more sort of clinical, what feels to me, more 329 00:18:06,876 --> 00:18:09,036 Speaker 2: rational approach of just like, look, let's just lay out 330 00:18:09,036 --> 00:18:11,196 Speaker 2: the facts. But when you lay out the facts, I'm 331 00:18:11,236 --> 00:18:16,716 Speaker 2: like cows man cows, Like, if we just if it 332 00:18:16,796 --> 00:18:19,196 Speaker 2: wasn't for cows. I don't want to say we'd be fine, 333 00:18:19,236 --> 00:18:21,316 Speaker 2: like we'd still have the energy transition fossil fuel, but 334 00:18:21,356 --> 00:18:23,436 Speaker 2: it seems like if we could solve beef, we could 335 00:18:23,476 --> 00:18:24,116 Speaker 2: solve a lot. 336 00:18:25,156 --> 00:18:29,596 Speaker 3: Yeah, if we were to significantly regious global beef consumption, 337 00:18:29,956 --> 00:18:33,836 Speaker 3: it would have a massive environmental impact and a positive 338 00:18:33,916 --> 00:18:38,356 Speaker 3: environmental impact. So when you look at the range of 339 00:18:38,476 --> 00:18:42,316 Speaker 3: environmental problems we face, beef and cattle come out really strongly. 340 00:18:42,796 --> 00:18:46,276 Speaker 3: So it's a really large driver of climate change. It's 341 00:18:46,316 --> 00:18:51,756 Speaker 3: the leading driver of deforestation, it's the as a result 342 00:18:51,796 --> 00:18:54,956 Speaker 3: of deforestation. It's then one of the leading drivers of 343 00:18:54,956 --> 00:18:59,996 Speaker 3: biodiversity laws. So yes, cattle and beef consumption specifically straddle 344 00:19:00,036 --> 00:19:02,636 Speaker 3: a large number of our problems. And then for many 345 00:19:02,636 --> 00:19:04,916 Speaker 3: of these problems are really like the leading cause. 346 00:19:06,196 --> 00:19:10,276 Speaker 2: And just can you just articulate the link between beef 347 00:19:10,316 --> 00:19:12,236 Speaker 2: and climate change a little more. 348 00:19:12,916 --> 00:19:17,276 Speaker 3: Yeah, So there's two key ways that beef contributes to 349 00:19:17,276 --> 00:19:20,756 Speaker 3: climate change. One is about land juice, right, So when 350 00:19:20,836 --> 00:19:25,476 Speaker 3: we have deforestation or other land juice changes, that's a 351 00:19:25,556 --> 00:19:29,036 Speaker 3: driver of CO two emissions, So that contributes to CO 352 00:19:29,276 --> 00:19:32,716 Speaker 3: two through land juice changes. And then the second one 353 00:19:33,076 --> 00:19:36,236 Speaker 3: is really about cows burping. Right, So cows burp and 354 00:19:36,276 --> 00:19:41,676 Speaker 3: the bark mephane and mephe is a very powerful greenhouse gas. 355 00:19:42,076 --> 00:19:45,116 Speaker 3: So that's the second way that they mostly contribute. There's 356 00:19:45,116 --> 00:19:47,916 Speaker 3: a hard way, which is that their manure also releases 357 00:19:48,556 --> 00:19:49,436 Speaker 3: greenhouse gases. 358 00:19:49,716 --> 00:19:52,676 Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to get to the world can be 359 00:19:52,756 --> 00:19:57,036 Speaker 2: better section of the food conversation. But before we do, Like, so, 360 00:19:57,196 --> 00:20:03,196 Speaker 2: cows are clearly the biggest food problem, it seems, are 361 00:20:03,236 --> 00:20:06,996 Speaker 2: there other what else is on the very short list 362 00:20:07,036 --> 00:20:10,236 Speaker 2: of big food related problems we need to solve? 363 00:20:10,636 --> 00:20:14,076 Speaker 3: I mean, I think I think one final framing of 364 00:20:14,116 --> 00:20:16,196 Speaker 3: the world as bad as it is now is that 365 00:20:16,236 --> 00:20:18,876 Speaker 3: we still have eight hundred million people in the world 366 00:20:19,116 --> 00:20:22,196 Speaker 3: don't get enough food to eat. And actually, when you 367 00:20:22,356 --> 00:20:26,436 Speaker 3: look at it, beyond calories, so not just getting enough energy, 368 00:20:26,476 --> 00:20:30,156 Speaker 3: but getting enough of all of the micronutrients that we need. 369 00:20:30,556 --> 00:20:33,356 Speaker 3: You're actually talking about billions of people in the world 370 00:20:33,556 --> 00:20:37,076 Speaker 3: are defined as being malnourished. So even if you can 371 00:20:37,156 --> 00:20:40,236 Speaker 3: get enough calories, and you can usually do that through 372 00:20:40,356 --> 00:20:45,196 Speaker 3: stable crops like cereals or cassava, etc. You might be 373 00:20:45,236 --> 00:20:47,116 Speaker 3: able to get enough calories, but you're not getting the 374 00:20:47,116 --> 00:20:49,596 Speaker 3: full spectrum of nutrients that we need. 375 00:20:54,356 --> 00:20:57,156 Speaker 2: After the break, we get to the world can be 376 00:20:57,236 --> 00:20:58,996 Speaker 2: better part of the conversation. 377 00:21:11,076 --> 00:21:15,796 Speaker 1: Okay, so let's solve these problems. 378 00:21:17,356 --> 00:21:21,956 Speaker 2: Let's start with people going hungry and not getting enough nutrition. 379 00:21:23,676 --> 00:21:24,436 Speaker 1: How do we solve that? 380 00:21:26,076 --> 00:21:31,276 Speaker 3: One key way is that, especially for many of the 381 00:21:31,316 --> 00:21:33,916 Speaker 3: poorest countries in the world, we just need to work 382 00:21:34,036 --> 00:21:38,116 Speaker 3: again on the agricultural productivity problem. And here I'm really 383 00:21:38,116 --> 00:21:42,796 Speaker 3: specifically talking about Sub Saharan Africa. Most farmers and subs 384 00:21:42,916 --> 00:21:45,876 Speaker 3: in Africa got very low crop yields, much lower than 385 00:21:45,876 --> 00:21:48,516 Speaker 3: the global average and much much much lower than say 386 00:21:48,556 --> 00:21:49,516 Speaker 3: you'd get in the US. 387 00:21:49,756 --> 00:21:53,356 Speaker 2: Sure, are there examples of places, you know, if you 388 00:21:53,596 --> 00:21:57,476 Speaker 2: set aside this kind of one off green revolution, are 389 00:21:57,516 --> 00:22:00,836 Speaker 2: there examples of places where crop yields go up independent 390 00:22:00,956 --> 00:22:03,836 Speaker 2: of economic growth? Or is the typical story that economic 391 00:22:03,916 --> 00:22:07,676 Speaker 2: growth sort of causes crop yields to go up when 392 00:22:07,796 --> 00:22:09,676 Speaker 2: countries are not at the economic different tier. 393 00:22:11,036 --> 00:22:16,556 Speaker 3: It is very strongly correlated. So as countries get richer, yes, 394 00:22:16,636 --> 00:22:20,636 Speaker 3: you tend to get increased productivity, but I think there 395 00:22:20,636 --> 00:22:23,876 Speaker 3: are still differences there. I think I think government policies 396 00:22:23,876 --> 00:22:27,836 Speaker 3: play a role, land reforms play a role, access to 397 00:22:27,916 --> 00:22:30,076 Speaker 3: markets player role. So I don't think this is purely 398 00:22:30,196 --> 00:22:32,756 Speaker 3: just about stimulate economic growth and this happens. I think 399 00:22:32,756 --> 00:22:36,636 Speaker 3: there are things that that governments can do to stimulate 400 00:22:36,676 --> 00:22:40,956 Speaker 3: that and make that go faster. Providing subsidies for farmers 401 00:22:40,956 --> 00:22:43,836 Speaker 3: to be able to afford the crucial inputs like better 402 00:22:43,876 --> 00:22:48,916 Speaker 3: seeds or more fertilizer or irrigation really helps a lot. 403 00:22:48,956 --> 00:22:50,956 Speaker 3: That's one key key way to do it. 404 00:22:52,836 --> 00:22:56,836 Speaker 2: Okay, Well, what are we going to do about meat 405 00:22:58,036 --> 00:22:59,156 Speaker 2: and deef in particular? 406 00:23:00,516 --> 00:23:04,556 Speaker 3: So I think if we're to solve these big environmental 407 00:23:04,556 --> 00:23:08,156 Speaker 3: problems globally, we need to reduce make consumption. And I 408 00:23:08,196 --> 00:23:12,716 Speaker 3: say globally because I think when I see reducing meat consumption, 409 00:23:12,916 --> 00:23:16,436 Speaker 3: people say, oh, should the person that's in a few 410 00:23:16,516 --> 00:23:19,436 Speaker 3: kilograms a year and that's crucial to the nutrition, should 411 00:23:19,436 --> 00:23:21,836 Speaker 3: they be cutting back? And they always askers no. Right here, 412 00:23:21,876 --> 00:23:25,396 Speaker 3: I'm really mostly talking about people in middle income to 413 00:23:25,516 --> 00:23:29,796 Speaker 3: rich countries where meat consumption is very high. Of course, 414 00:23:29,836 --> 00:23:33,436 Speaker 3: to solve these problems, we would need to reduce global 415 00:23:33,436 --> 00:23:34,076 Speaker 3: meat consumption. 416 00:23:34,596 --> 00:23:40,556 Speaker 2: Yes, I mean that's the again almost tautological answer of like, 417 00:23:40,636 --> 00:23:42,436 Speaker 2: the way to solve the problem of too much meat 418 00:23:42,476 --> 00:23:43,636 Speaker 2: it's to have people eat less meat. 419 00:23:43,676 --> 00:23:45,076 Speaker 1: But how do you do that? 420 00:23:45,156 --> 00:23:45,276 Speaker 3: Right? 421 00:23:45,316 --> 00:23:47,636 Speaker 2: I mean you're talking the book about like individual behavior 422 00:23:47,716 --> 00:23:52,756 Speaker 2: change doesn't matter basically in the aggregate, right, it may 423 00:23:52,796 --> 00:23:55,316 Speaker 2: be useful for kind of moral reasons. Or in the abstract, 424 00:23:55,356 --> 00:23:58,036 Speaker 2: but on the level of like climate change by a 425 00:23:58,076 --> 00:24:02,316 Speaker 2: diversity laws, deforestation, the things we're talking about here, it 426 00:24:02,436 --> 00:24:05,996 Speaker 2: seems like individual behavior change is not going to do 427 00:24:06,116 --> 00:24:10,636 Speaker 2: it right. So like, what are the moves, what are 428 00:24:10,676 --> 00:24:13,396 Speaker 2: the macro moves that might drive things in the right direction. 429 00:24:14,356 --> 00:24:17,116 Speaker 3: So individual behavior change on its own is not going 430 00:24:17,156 --> 00:24:19,916 Speaker 3: to change anything. I still advocate for that, and I'm 431 00:24:19,996 --> 00:24:23,556 Speaker 3: vegan myself, so I tried to take that on. I 432 00:24:23,596 --> 00:24:25,876 Speaker 3: think people too often said, I. 433 00:24:26,236 --> 00:24:28,836 Speaker 1: Have to be right after writing that chapter, you kind 434 00:24:28,836 --> 00:24:29,916 Speaker 1: of have to be sure. 435 00:24:32,316 --> 00:24:35,316 Speaker 3: But I think I think people too often set up 436 00:24:35,356 --> 00:24:39,876 Speaker 3: this false dichotomy of individual behavior change and wider systemic change. 437 00:24:40,636 --> 00:24:42,636 Speaker 3: As an individual, you are part of the system. 438 00:24:43,196 --> 00:24:46,596 Speaker 1: Fair, you're putting me on the hook, And that's totally reasonable. 439 00:24:47,396 --> 00:24:51,196 Speaker 3: So so yes, even if you were to go vegan tomorrow, 440 00:24:51,756 --> 00:24:54,476 Speaker 3: the world global make consumption is not going to notice. 441 00:24:55,596 --> 00:24:59,476 Speaker 3: I would I would say that what you choose to 442 00:24:59,556 --> 00:25:03,436 Speaker 3: eat actually is one behavior change that actually can have 443 00:25:03,796 --> 00:25:07,036 Speaker 3: a small direct impact in some way, especially when you 444 00:25:07,076 --> 00:25:09,756 Speaker 3: look at it in terms of animal welfare. Yeah, so 445 00:25:10,356 --> 00:25:13,756 Speaker 3: you eat unless meat does actually potentially reduce the number 446 00:25:13,796 --> 00:25:16,676 Speaker 3: of animals that are probably raised in pretty poor conditions 447 00:25:16,756 --> 00:25:18,316 Speaker 3: and killed from consumption. 448 00:25:18,756 --> 00:25:21,516 Speaker 2: Yes, that is plainly directly true. I mean, the moral 449 00:25:21,556 --> 00:25:27,036 Speaker 2: dimension of eating meat is real and significant, and we 450 00:25:27,076 --> 00:25:29,876 Speaker 2: have not been discussing that piece of it to this point. 451 00:25:29,916 --> 00:25:35,156 Speaker 2: But clearly the individual choice about eating meat, that moral 452 00:25:35,196 --> 00:25:41,196 Speaker 2: dimension is obviously significant, but it is notable in your book. 453 00:25:41,236 --> 00:25:42,836 Speaker 2: And let's just talk about this for a second. It's 454 00:25:42,836 --> 00:25:44,636 Speaker 2: a little digressive, but let's just do it here. Like 455 00:25:45,676 --> 00:25:49,556 Speaker 2: you know, you talk about like which behavior changes people 456 00:25:49,676 --> 00:25:53,716 Speaker 2: make are meaningful at what magnitude? Right, And clearly eating 457 00:25:53,756 --> 00:25:57,636 Speaker 2: meat and even more so eating beef relative to other 458 00:25:57,716 --> 00:26:02,676 Speaker 2: individual choices is quite significant, and I think it kind 459 00:26:02,676 --> 00:26:04,916 Speaker 2: of punches above its weight in terms of what people 460 00:26:04,956 --> 00:26:08,716 Speaker 2: think about. Right, So, like, just for a minute talk 461 00:26:08,716 --> 00:26:11,836 Speaker 2: about that, Like, in terms of individual choices, what are 462 00:26:11,876 --> 00:26:14,236 Speaker 2: things that are kind of underrated that people don't think 463 00:26:14,236 --> 00:26:16,116 Speaker 2: about enough that make a big difference? And then what 464 00:26:16,156 --> 00:26:19,236 Speaker 2: are things are overrated that people talk about or care 465 00:26:19,276 --> 00:26:21,756 Speaker 2: about but actually don't really matter that much. 466 00:26:22,436 --> 00:26:25,876 Speaker 3: Right, So the things that people overrate And this is 467 00:26:25,876 --> 00:26:28,196 Speaker 3: basically when you ask people what are you doing for 468 00:26:28,196 --> 00:26:31,476 Speaker 3: the environment, this is what they see. They see the recycle, 469 00:26:32,236 --> 00:26:36,596 Speaker 3: they get light, they get energy efficient light bulbs, and 470 00:26:36,636 --> 00:26:38,916 Speaker 3: they try to avoid single use plastics like that. Those 471 00:26:38,916 --> 00:26:41,756 Speaker 3: are the key things that people see when you ask 472 00:26:41,796 --> 00:26:44,236 Speaker 3: what they're doing for the environment, and the reality is 473 00:26:44,236 --> 00:26:47,436 Speaker 3: that the impart that they have is tiny, right, any 474 00:26:47,476 --> 00:26:49,436 Speaker 3: tiny fraction of your footprint. 475 00:26:49,676 --> 00:26:54,796 Speaker 2: Yeah, recycling wildly overrated. Right, good for cans, but for 476 00:26:54,836 --> 00:26:59,756 Speaker 2: everything else it doesn't matter really, But so okay, so 477 00:26:59,876 --> 00:27:00,636 Speaker 2: what does matter? 478 00:27:00,956 --> 00:27:02,116 Speaker 1: Eating meat? What else? 479 00:27:02,156 --> 00:27:05,676 Speaker 2: What are other actual meaningful changes, at least relative to 480 00:27:05,716 --> 00:27:06,676 Speaker 2: the scale of one person. 481 00:27:07,236 --> 00:27:09,836 Speaker 3: So if you were to look at what except probably 482 00:27:09,836 --> 00:27:12,476 Speaker 3: eighty percent of your footprint, it's what you eat. And 483 00:27:12,516 --> 00:27:14,516 Speaker 3: the biggest thing you can do there is eat less 484 00:27:14,556 --> 00:27:17,956 Speaker 3: meat and dairy. In your house, it's heating or cooling, 485 00:27:18,436 --> 00:27:21,836 Speaker 3: so right, so like heating or air con. So if 486 00:27:21,836 --> 00:27:24,276 Speaker 3: you have a gas boiler, switching to an electric heat 487 00:27:24,276 --> 00:27:27,516 Speaker 3: pump and make a massive difference to your footprint. And 488 00:27:27,556 --> 00:27:30,076 Speaker 3: then the other two big things are travel. So like 489 00:27:30,276 --> 00:27:32,356 Speaker 3: if you have a car, your car is a massive 490 00:27:32,396 --> 00:27:37,076 Speaker 3: part of your footprint, so either obviously walking and cycling 491 00:27:37,236 --> 00:27:40,036 Speaker 3: is best. Going to an electric car is way better 492 00:27:40,076 --> 00:27:42,476 Speaker 3: than a petrol car. And then the final thing, if 493 00:27:42,516 --> 00:27:46,156 Speaker 3: you fly, is flying. And if you add up those things, 494 00:27:46,196 --> 00:27:50,996 Speaker 3: you're getting to the majority of your environmental footprint. 495 00:27:52,076 --> 00:27:52,356 Speaker 1: Good. 496 00:27:52,476 --> 00:27:56,396 Speaker 2: Okay, back to meat. What do we do about meat 497 00:27:56,476 --> 00:27:59,316 Speaker 2: on a. 498 00:27:58,076 --> 00:28:02,756 Speaker 1: Non individual level? Right? What are the macro ways we 499 00:28:02,916 --> 00:28:04,716 Speaker 1: can reduce meat consumption? 500 00:28:05,796 --> 00:28:08,756 Speaker 3: So I'll go to the macro and then I'll say why, 501 00:28:08,796 --> 00:28:11,996 Speaker 3: having individuals play a role in that. So when you 502 00:28:12,036 --> 00:28:15,796 Speaker 3: look at the macro trends in meat consumption globally, they're 503 00:28:15,836 --> 00:28:19,476 Speaker 3: going up. And even when you look at a country level, 504 00:28:20,196 --> 00:28:22,756 Speaker 3: there are very very few examples where meat consumption is 505 00:28:22,796 --> 00:28:25,636 Speaker 3: going down. Right, So we're just really not making much 506 00:28:25,676 --> 00:28:27,356 Speaker 3: progress on this problem. 507 00:28:27,476 --> 00:28:30,716 Speaker 2: We're making regress. And what about beef in particular, I mean, 508 00:28:30,756 --> 00:28:34,116 Speaker 2: presumably a shift from beef to chicken. Obviously it's not 509 00:28:34,156 --> 00:28:35,796 Speaker 2: as good for the world as a shift from beef 510 00:28:35,836 --> 00:28:40,196 Speaker 2: to SOI, but it's pretty good, right, And I feel 511 00:28:40,236 --> 00:28:44,276 Speaker 2: like anecdotally in the US, chicken has risen and beef 512 00:28:44,316 --> 00:28:47,876 Speaker 2: has fallen, not for environmental reasons but for health reasons basically, Right, 513 00:28:47,916 --> 00:28:49,436 Speaker 2: people grew more wary of red meat. 514 00:28:49,556 --> 00:28:51,596 Speaker 1: Is that true empirically? 515 00:28:51,796 --> 00:28:54,516 Speaker 2: Like what has happened with beef consumption in America in 516 00:28:54,556 --> 00:28:56,556 Speaker 2: the last whatever fifty years or something? 517 00:28:56,836 --> 00:28:59,116 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's true. If you look at America, or you 518 00:28:59,156 --> 00:29:03,516 Speaker 3: look at Europe, red meat consumption specifically, beef consumption has 519 00:29:03,516 --> 00:29:06,396 Speaker 3: gone down a bit and in its place, chicken consumption 520 00:29:06,556 --> 00:29:10,636 Speaker 3: has gone up. As you say, that's witch is probably 521 00:29:10,756 --> 00:29:14,836 Speaker 3: very underrated as a climate solution, right, It actually makes 522 00:29:14,836 --> 00:29:18,156 Speaker 3: a big difference to your footprint switching from beef to chicken. 523 00:29:18,876 --> 00:29:23,436 Speaker 3: So environmentally that's a very very good swap. I'd argue 524 00:29:23,436 --> 00:29:26,796 Speaker 3: that the animal welfare cost of that or the opposite, right. 525 00:29:26,756 --> 00:29:29,076 Speaker 2: If you value the life of a chicken at the 526 00:29:29,156 --> 00:29:31,036 Speaker 2: same as you value the life of a cow, it's 527 00:29:31,076 --> 00:29:32,956 Speaker 2: clearly much worse for and more. 528 00:29:33,836 --> 00:29:37,556 Speaker 3: But yeah, I think this meat switchain has been a 529 00:29:37,636 --> 00:29:42,356 Speaker 3: key transition in many countries and environmentally positive. 530 00:29:42,716 --> 00:29:46,756 Speaker 2: But globally, beef consumption is rising, presumably because as very 531 00:29:46,796 --> 00:29:48,756 Speaker 2: poor people get richer, they eat more meat. 532 00:29:49,036 --> 00:29:49,876 Speaker 1: Understandably. 533 00:29:50,196 --> 00:29:53,636 Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, so still bad. We're not yet to how 534 00:29:53,676 --> 00:29:54,516 Speaker 2: do we make it better? 535 00:29:54,596 --> 00:29:56,716 Speaker 1: Let's get there? What do we got to do? Or 536 00:29:56,796 --> 00:29:58,876 Speaker 1: you know, how do we go in the right direction? Right? 537 00:29:58,916 --> 00:30:01,116 Speaker 3: So we've made little progress, and one of the reasons 538 00:30:01,236 --> 00:30:04,116 Speaker 3: we've made a little progress is because people are not 539 00:30:04,276 --> 00:30:08,636 Speaker 3: willing to switch to the previous alternatives we had as 540 00:30:08,676 --> 00:30:11,796 Speaker 3: a protein right. People were not switching from a beef 541 00:30:11,836 --> 00:30:17,316 Speaker 3: burger to lentils or tofu or beans. Right. People just 542 00:30:17,316 --> 00:30:19,276 Speaker 3: didn't want to make that switch. That seemed like a 543 00:30:19,316 --> 00:30:20,316 Speaker 3: step backwards. 544 00:30:20,396 --> 00:30:20,516 Speaker 2: Right. 545 00:30:21,756 --> 00:30:24,796 Speaker 3: The way we solve this, and the only way I 546 00:30:24,836 --> 00:30:26,996 Speaker 3: see with that, we solve this, is to make a 547 00:30:27,276 --> 00:30:30,596 Speaker 3: like for like switch so that people can still have 548 00:30:30,676 --> 00:30:33,716 Speaker 3: the beef burger or something really close to a beef 549 00:30:33,716 --> 00:30:37,556 Speaker 3: burger without the cow. Right. That's the only way I 550 00:30:37,596 --> 00:30:39,516 Speaker 3: see a route out of this, or a way to 551 00:30:39,636 --> 00:30:43,996 Speaker 3: reduce global meat consumption is to basically produce meat substitutes 552 00:30:44,436 --> 00:30:48,716 Speaker 3: that provide the same texture, the same nutrition, the same experience, 553 00:30:49,076 --> 00:30:51,596 Speaker 3: just without the cow or the chicken, and with much 554 00:30:51,716 --> 00:30:53,076 Speaker 3: lower environmental footprint. 555 00:30:53,196 --> 00:30:54,876 Speaker 1: It's basically lab grown meat. 556 00:30:56,276 --> 00:31:00,036 Speaker 3: Some of the plant based meat substitutes I think are 557 00:31:00,076 --> 00:31:02,676 Speaker 3: getting pretty good, although I'm probably biased. 558 00:31:03,436 --> 00:31:06,716 Speaker 2: No, I mean, I had a lot of impossible beef, 559 00:31:08,476 --> 00:31:13,996 Speaker 2: certainly way more than beef beef, but it's clearly not 560 00:31:16,116 --> 00:31:19,436 Speaker 2: good enough, right. I Mean, you know, people are trying 561 00:31:19,516 --> 00:31:23,156 Speaker 2: sort of sell culture like sort of meat as a 562 00:31:23,156 --> 00:31:27,916 Speaker 2: biotech problem is fundamentally what you're talking about on some level, right, 563 00:31:27,996 --> 00:31:32,676 Speaker 2: And it does seem like fundamentally that's appealing because it 564 00:31:32,756 --> 00:31:38,516 Speaker 2: doesn't require people to change their behavior ultimately, right, Ultimately 565 00:31:38,716 --> 00:31:43,116 Speaker 2: we want a solution based on people just acting indifferently 566 00:31:43,196 --> 00:31:44,236 Speaker 2: or in their own self interest. 567 00:31:44,356 --> 00:31:47,276 Speaker 1: Like, that's the kind of solution I can believe in, right. 568 00:31:47,716 --> 00:31:53,556 Speaker 2: And and you know, I've heard counter arguments that like, oh, 569 00:31:53,676 --> 00:31:56,716 Speaker 2: people won't trust it, or people are attached to you know, 570 00:31:57,036 --> 00:31:59,516 Speaker 2: beef that comes from an animal. But I feel like 571 00:31:59,596 --> 00:32:01,836 Speaker 2: that's going to be the minority of people, right. I 572 00:32:01,836 --> 00:32:05,036 Speaker 2: feel like most people don't care about any particular thing 573 00:32:05,116 --> 00:32:07,756 Speaker 2: in the world and they just want something like with energy, 574 00:32:08,356 --> 00:32:10,236 Speaker 2: they just want something that's reliable and cheap. 575 00:32:10,276 --> 00:32:11,476 Speaker 1: And so if somebody could make. 576 00:32:11,396 --> 00:32:16,076 Speaker 2: Lab ground meat that was the same as beef and 577 00:32:16,836 --> 00:32:18,956 Speaker 2: one penny cheaper, it would win. 578 00:32:21,516 --> 00:32:25,596 Speaker 3: I think initially people might be hesitant and skeptical, but 579 00:32:25,596 --> 00:32:28,396 Speaker 3: I think that's the case with most new technologies. Like 580 00:32:28,436 --> 00:32:31,316 Speaker 3: if you look at electric cars, for example, I think 581 00:32:31,476 --> 00:32:35,596 Speaker 3: initially many many people were skeptical because they didn't know 582 00:32:35,716 --> 00:32:38,796 Speaker 3: anyone that had an electric car, right, They didn't know 583 00:32:39,116 --> 00:32:42,516 Speaker 3: how it ran, whether you broke down on the highway, 584 00:32:42,916 --> 00:32:45,516 Speaker 3: like was it easy to charge, was it expensive to charge? Like, 585 00:32:45,716 --> 00:32:48,676 Speaker 3: no one really knew that apart from a really small minority. 586 00:32:48,836 --> 00:32:51,036 Speaker 3: I think with electric vehicles, we're now getting to the 587 00:32:51,076 --> 00:32:54,276 Speaker 3: stage where most of us know someone that has won 588 00:32:54,476 --> 00:32:56,716 Speaker 3: and they get by fine and actually really like it. 589 00:32:57,036 --> 00:33:00,396 Speaker 3: And I feel like with new technologies like lab grown meat, 590 00:33:00,396 --> 00:33:03,316 Speaker 3: for example, it might be the same. Like uptake rates 591 00:33:03,356 --> 00:33:05,796 Speaker 3: at the very start might be slow, but I think 592 00:33:05,796 --> 00:33:10,076 Speaker 3: it would very very slowly start to become normalized. And 593 00:33:10,116 --> 00:33:12,276 Speaker 3: as you say, I think people at some point would 594 00:33:12,316 --> 00:33:14,356 Speaker 3: just switch and they'd be very happy to just have 595 00:33:14,436 --> 00:33:16,476 Speaker 3: something that tastes like a burger, has a texture of 596 00:33:16,516 --> 00:33:19,236 Speaker 3: a burger, asious as a burger. I think cost will 597 00:33:19,236 --> 00:33:21,156 Speaker 3: be key. They will not pay more for it than 598 00:33:21,196 --> 00:33:23,956 Speaker 3: they be for a beef burger. So that's really really key, 599 00:33:24,036 --> 00:33:27,276 Speaker 3: is that we need to scale these technologies, but we 600 00:33:27,316 --> 00:33:29,956 Speaker 3: also need to make sure that they are undercut in 601 00:33:30,036 --> 00:33:31,556 Speaker 3: the current cost of meat. 602 00:33:31,956 --> 00:33:34,876 Speaker 2: Well, you know the I talked to the guy who 603 00:33:34,956 --> 00:33:39,196 Speaker 2: started Impossible Foods and he makes the point that from 604 00:33:39,356 --> 00:33:45,996 Speaker 2: first principles, meat made without animals should be cheaper. Right 605 00:33:46,116 --> 00:33:48,636 Speaker 2: for the same reason that animals are such a problem 606 00:33:48,636 --> 00:33:51,996 Speaker 2: for the world, which is they're wildly inefficient. Like, yes, 607 00:33:52,356 --> 00:33:55,796 Speaker 2: industrial agriculture has become very efficient at growing cows and 608 00:33:55,836 --> 00:33:58,156 Speaker 2: at growing the corn to feed cows. But from first 609 00:33:58,196 --> 00:34:00,876 Speaker 2: principles it's still crazy, right, like the fact that you 610 00:34:01,036 --> 00:34:06,156 Speaker 2: only get one calorie of beef for every whatever ninety 611 00:34:06,156 --> 00:34:08,196 Speaker 2: five calories of corn you put in, and you have 612 00:34:08,236 --> 00:34:11,996 Speaker 2: to raise a whole caw. Like, theoretically there should be 613 00:34:11,996 --> 00:34:14,356 Speaker 2: a much more efficient way to get beef than going 614 00:34:14,396 --> 00:34:17,596 Speaker 2: through all that work of making a cow, right, And 615 00:34:17,676 --> 00:34:21,556 Speaker 2: so that makes me optimistic in an abstract way, if 616 00:34:21,556 --> 00:34:22,596 Speaker 2: not in a practical way. 617 00:34:23,116 --> 00:34:25,436 Speaker 3: Yeah, I think so. I think this is also a 618 00:34:25,436 --> 00:34:27,436 Speaker 3: time thing, Like I think we'll get there. I think 619 00:34:27,476 --> 00:34:29,636 Speaker 3: it's really about how long it takes us. I think 620 00:34:29,636 --> 00:34:34,356 Speaker 3: what's key about agriculture is we've been refining and optimizing 621 00:34:34,396 --> 00:34:37,836 Speaker 3: these processes over a really, really long period of time, 622 00:34:38,076 --> 00:34:41,076 Speaker 3: whereas these new technologies are very much in their infancy. 623 00:34:41,516 --> 00:34:44,556 Speaker 2: Yeah, well, that makes me less hopeful when you put 624 00:34:44,556 --> 00:34:48,476 Speaker 2: it that way. I mean, I guess I am somewhat 625 00:34:48,556 --> 00:34:52,596 Speaker 2: less hopeful about meat, right, Like the energy transition seems 626 00:34:52,596 --> 00:34:56,356 Speaker 2: to be going better than almost anyone would have expected 627 00:34:56,356 --> 00:35:02,076 Speaker 2: ten years ago. Right, We're not having a meat transition. 628 00:35:02,316 --> 00:35:03,716 Speaker 2: It's just not happening yet. 629 00:35:04,316 --> 00:35:07,836 Speaker 1: Can you help me feel better about it? 630 00:35:11,396 --> 00:35:13,596 Speaker 3: I'm not sure, because I mean, I think the theme 631 00:35:13,596 --> 00:35:16,396 Speaker 3: that also comes from my book again is that I think, 632 00:35:16,716 --> 00:35:19,676 Speaker 3: again I'm optimistic on the energy story, and I think 633 00:35:19,676 --> 00:35:22,836 Speaker 3: we're making pretty rapid progress they are, and more progress 634 00:35:22,876 --> 00:35:25,796 Speaker 3: than people imagine. I think the way people discuss the 635 00:35:25,836 --> 00:35:28,996 Speaker 3: food chapter in my book is kind of that, it's 636 00:35:29,036 --> 00:35:32,476 Speaker 3: like the pessimistic side of the story. It's hard. 637 00:35:32,956 --> 00:35:36,636 Speaker 2: So if we managed to solve the food problem, if 638 00:35:36,636 --> 00:35:40,036 Speaker 2: we fundamentally managed to come up with like good cheap 639 00:35:40,156 --> 00:35:42,996 Speaker 2: fake meat, right, that's actually the answer. 640 00:35:44,636 --> 00:35:47,196 Speaker 1: How will the world change? Like? What is the what 641 00:35:47,316 --> 00:35:48,476 Speaker 1: is the happy outcome there? 642 00:35:49,476 --> 00:35:52,996 Speaker 3: So I think if we were to somehow magically and 643 00:35:53,556 --> 00:35:56,956 Speaker 3: beef production tomorrow. One is that we were dramatically reduced 644 00:35:56,956 --> 00:36:00,316 Speaker 3: the amount of land that we're using for agriculture, which 645 00:36:00,396 --> 00:36:05,476 Speaker 3: means that we could really start to restore all ecosystems 646 00:36:05,516 --> 00:36:09,356 Speaker 3: and our habitats that we basically took over with agricultural land. Right, 647 00:36:09,756 --> 00:36:13,196 Speaker 3: So that has biodiversity benefits, and it also has benefits 648 00:36:13,196 --> 00:36:16,956 Speaker 3: for climate change because you can start to restore and 649 00:36:17,036 --> 00:36:20,996 Speaker 3: sequest or carbon that we previously lost by deforcing that 650 00:36:21,156 --> 00:36:23,836 Speaker 3: land or taking away the well grassland. So that's a 651 00:36:23,956 --> 00:36:28,996 Speaker 3: huge huge positive because beef is also the leading cause 652 00:36:29,116 --> 00:36:32,036 Speaker 3: of deforestation. I think globally you would also see a 653 00:36:32,116 --> 00:36:35,596 Speaker 3: significant drop in rates of deforestation. It wouldn't go to 654 00:36:35,676 --> 00:36:38,116 Speaker 3: zero because there are other causes, but it was at 655 00:36:38,156 --> 00:36:41,556 Speaker 3: least significantly reduce those rates. And then the final one 656 00:36:41,596 --> 00:36:43,676 Speaker 3: is I think it would have a significant impact on 657 00:36:43,716 --> 00:36:47,236 Speaker 3: our greenhouse cast missions and climate change. So we were 658 00:36:47,236 --> 00:36:51,916 Speaker 3: to get rid of that mefing. So for context, livestock 659 00:36:52,036 --> 00:36:57,636 Speaker 3: and most of this is cattle contributes around fifteen percent 660 00:36:57,756 --> 00:36:59,396 Speaker 3: of global greenhouse cassome missions. 661 00:36:59,676 --> 00:37:01,436 Speaker 1: That's basically cow burps. 662 00:37:01,956 --> 00:37:04,316 Speaker 3: Cowburps and some of this land just change. But again 663 00:37:04,396 --> 00:37:07,156 Speaker 3: that a lot of that would go away. So I 664 00:37:07,236 --> 00:37:11,996 Speaker 3: think you would at least global greenhouse gas emissions by 665 00:37:12,036 --> 00:37:13,156 Speaker 3: five to ten percent. 666 00:37:13,676 --> 00:37:18,156 Speaker 2: Huh So if we zoom out even more. You know, 667 00:37:18,436 --> 00:37:21,756 Speaker 2: at the end of your book you sort of tell 668 00:37:21,796 --> 00:37:25,596 Speaker 2: the happy story, right like, if things go well, if 669 00:37:25,596 --> 00:37:28,796 Speaker 2: we make good on the things can be better piece 670 00:37:28,876 --> 00:37:35,356 Speaker 2: of your framework if things go well, not just with food, 671 00:37:35,436 --> 00:37:39,116 Speaker 2: but more generally with the big global problems you talk 672 00:37:39,156 --> 00:37:42,876 Speaker 2: about in the book, what will the world look like? 673 00:37:43,996 --> 00:37:46,556 Speaker 1: Well, you say in fifty years in the book, right, I. 674 00:37:46,476 --> 00:37:48,236 Speaker 3: Think there's two sayes to this, and I think it's 675 00:37:48,316 --> 00:37:52,396 Speaker 3: really important that we consider both sides. As an environmentalist, 676 00:37:52,796 --> 00:37:56,196 Speaker 3: I mean, again, we always focus on just the environmental metrics. 677 00:37:56,276 --> 00:37:58,156 Speaker 3: So it'd be very easy for me to sit here 678 00:37:58,196 --> 00:38:00,676 Speaker 3: and say, you know, just the best outcome would be 679 00:38:00,756 --> 00:38:04,196 Speaker 3: that there's no deforestation and we stop climate change, right, 680 00:38:04,276 --> 00:38:06,996 Speaker 3: and again I think those will be huge victories. But 681 00:38:07,036 --> 00:38:09,356 Speaker 3: at the same time, we also need to make sure 682 00:38:09,636 --> 00:38:12,556 Speaker 3: that we're providing a good life for the nine or 683 00:38:12,556 --> 00:38:14,876 Speaker 3: ten billion people that there will be on the planet. 684 00:38:15,516 --> 00:38:19,316 Speaker 3: So when I'm an old lady, what you know success 685 00:38:19,396 --> 00:38:23,116 Speaker 3: would look like is that we have nine or ten 686 00:38:23,156 --> 00:38:28,276 Speaker 3: billion people that don't live in extreme poverty, that are 687 00:38:28,316 --> 00:38:31,956 Speaker 3: not hungry, have access to energy for a good life, 688 00:38:32,036 --> 00:38:37,876 Speaker 3: they have access to healthcare, and we've eradicated diseases, and 689 00:38:38,116 --> 00:38:41,636 Speaker 3: they have clean water and sanitation, and we've done that, 690 00:38:41,756 --> 00:38:45,756 Speaker 3: so we've driven that huge amount of global human development 691 00:38:46,276 --> 00:38:49,836 Speaker 3: will also reducing our environmental impacts. So we've managed to 692 00:38:49,836 --> 00:38:52,276 Speaker 3: stop climate change, and there will still be climate damages. 693 00:38:52,316 --> 00:38:53,996 Speaker 3: There to be clear, like, we're not going to just 694 00:38:53,996 --> 00:38:56,956 Speaker 3: solve this and there'll be no impacts whatsoever, but we 695 00:38:56,996 --> 00:39:01,636 Speaker 3: can manage to deal with those negative impacts, and we've 696 00:39:02,396 --> 00:39:04,996 Speaker 3: really just freed up a huge amount of the planet 697 00:39:05,236 --> 00:39:08,756 Speaker 3: to be restored for biodiversity in nature. So we've stopped 698 00:39:08,756 --> 00:39:11,996 Speaker 3: cutting in forests, and forests are we growing. And we've 699 00:39:12,036 --> 00:39:14,756 Speaker 3: taken out a lot of the farmland that we currently 700 00:39:14,836 --> 00:39:19,196 Speaker 3: use and that's now being restored for weld ecosystems. So 701 00:39:19,516 --> 00:39:22,436 Speaker 3: we have nine or ten point people living really really good, 702 00:39:23,676 --> 00:39:27,396 Speaker 3: high welfare lives and we're using a much smaller amount 703 00:39:27,436 --> 00:39:28,596 Speaker 3: of the planet in order. 704 00:39:28,436 --> 00:39:35,156 Speaker 2: To do that. We'll be back in a minute with 705 00:39:35,236 --> 00:39:51,116 Speaker 2: the Lightning round. Let's finish with the Lightning round. What's 706 00:39:51,156 --> 00:39:53,196 Speaker 2: your favorite data set. 707 00:39:56,236 --> 00:39:59,356 Speaker 3: At the moment? The renewable energy day is it? I 708 00:39:59,356 --> 00:40:04,356 Speaker 3: think the biggest transition that's making me most optimistic about 709 00:40:04,396 --> 00:40:08,356 Speaker 3: the future is the rapid growth in renewables and the 710 00:40:08,396 --> 00:40:10,556 Speaker 3: plumbting costs of those energy sources. 711 00:40:10,796 --> 00:40:13,836 Speaker 2: It's amazing because like even I don't know, I did 712 00:40:13,836 --> 00:40:17,156 Speaker 2: a story seven years ago or something about oh my god, 713 00:40:17,196 --> 00:40:19,516 Speaker 2: solar got so cheap and people are getting solar power 714 00:40:19,516 --> 00:40:21,716 Speaker 2: who don't even care about the environment just because it's cheaper. 715 00:40:22,076 --> 00:40:24,756 Speaker 1: And then since then it's gotten so much cheaper. 716 00:40:24,956 --> 00:40:27,636 Speaker 3: Like just not stopping, it's not stopping yeah, but I 717 00:40:27,676 --> 00:40:30,156 Speaker 3: think combined with that, I think the next stage, which 718 00:40:30,276 --> 00:40:32,716 Speaker 3: is making me equally optimistic, is now the falling costs 719 00:40:32,716 --> 00:40:33,276 Speaker 3: of batteries. 720 00:40:36,196 --> 00:40:42,876 Speaker 2: What's a data set that you wish existed that doesn't exist. 721 00:40:43,596 --> 00:40:48,756 Speaker 3: Just a really really good global data set on bio diversity, 722 00:40:49,276 --> 00:40:51,996 Speaker 3: and by that I mean for every species in the world, 723 00:40:52,276 --> 00:40:54,836 Speaker 3: but just really far away from that because there's so 724 00:40:54,956 --> 00:40:58,156 Speaker 3: many species. And that was one of the struggles for 725 00:40:58,196 --> 00:41:01,236 Speaker 3: the biodiversity chapter is that I tried to base all 726 00:41:01,276 --> 00:41:04,876 Speaker 3: of my thinking on data. I mean, the data are scarce. 727 00:41:04,916 --> 00:41:06,916 Speaker 3: It's hard to get a really clear picture of what's 728 00:41:06,916 --> 00:41:09,476 Speaker 3: going on. So I think that's one day I would 729 00:41:09,476 --> 00:41:11,836 Speaker 3: love is just what on Earth's going on with global 730 00:41:11,876 --> 00:41:12,556 Speaker 3: bio diversity. 731 00:41:13,996 --> 00:41:15,996 Speaker 1: What's one thing I should do if I go to Falkirk. 732 00:41:18,156 --> 00:41:22,356 Speaker 3: We're famous for this massive wheel, so we have a 733 00:41:22,436 --> 00:41:25,196 Speaker 3: wheel like a wheel. It's called the Fallkirk wheel, right, 734 00:41:25,236 --> 00:41:28,636 Speaker 3: And when you say famous, I mean that's the only 735 00:41:28,716 --> 00:41:31,756 Speaker 3: thing we have. And the Queen opened it, so she 736 00:41:31,916 --> 00:41:34,756 Speaker 3: was there the opening of it. So in through full 737 00:41:34,796 --> 00:41:38,676 Speaker 3: Kirk we have these canal systems with boats and we 738 00:41:38,716 --> 00:41:42,636 Speaker 3: have this magical wheel where basically it takes the boat 739 00:41:42,716 --> 00:41:47,516 Speaker 3: from like ground level up to like a massive, massive 740 00:41:47,556 --> 00:41:49,116 Speaker 3: height so you can get on the new canal. 741 00:41:49,556 --> 00:41:51,796 Speaker 1: Wow. But like a ferris wheel? 742 00:41:51,956 --> 00:41:55,436 Speaker 2: Should I picture like at exactly? 743 00:41:55,996 --> 00:41:59,356 Speaker 3: But the exciting thing is that turning this massive wheel 744 00:41:59,436 --> 00:42:03,276 Speaker 3: with his boat on it takes less energy than boiling 745 00:42:03,316 --> 00:42:03,756 Speaker 3: a kettle. 746 00:42:04,516 --> 00:42:04,756 Speaker 1: Wow? 747 00:42:06,436 --> 00:42:10,236 Speaker 3: Brand you Yeah, so it utilizes potential energy and converts 748 00:42:10,236 --> 00:42:13,116 Speaker 3: it into kinetics. It's this really energy efficient wheel. 749 00:42:13,716 --> 00:42:14,916 Speaker 1: Wow. Okay. 750 00:42:16,836 --> 00:42:22,556 Speaker 2: Do you have any graph related pet peeves? Oh? 751 00:42:22,596 --> 00:42:26,956 Speaker 3: A lot. One key one is that people just make 752 00:42:26,996 --> 00:42:31,676 Speaker 3: them far too complicated. I think people try to cram 753 00:42:31,716 --> 00:42:34,316 Speaker 3: as much information in as they can, or they think 754 00:42:34,356 --> 00:42:37,636 Speaker 3: that it makes them look smarter to make a more 755 00:42:37,636 --> 00:42:41,396 Speaker 3: complicated graph, and that a line chart is just too 756 00:42:41,436 --> 00:42:44,956 Speaker 3: simple and yeah, but actually the simple line chart or 757 00:42:44,996 --> 00:42:47,276 Speaker 3: the simple bar chart that people can understand is just 758 00:42:47,356 --> 00:42:47,956 Speaker 3: way more of it. 759 00:42:48,356 --> 00:42:48,556 Speaker 1: Yeah. 760 00:42:48,596 --> 00:42:51,476 Speaker 2: A line chart with time on the x axis and 761 00:42:51,596 --> 00:42:54,596 Speaker 2: the variable you care about on the y axis, you 762 00:42:54,636 --> 00:42:57,956 Speaker 2: need to I look for those all the time. I'm 763 00:42:57,956 --> 00:43:01,476 Speaker 2: always googling, like time series whatever. And it's weird how 764 00:43:01,516 --> 00:43:06,316 Speaker 2: hard it is to find a time series. Your book 765 00:43:06,396 --> 00:43:09,076 Speaker 2: is full of facts. One of the things I appreciate 766 00:43:09,196 --> 00:43:12,956 Speaker 2: about the book, what just like one fact if you 767 00:43:12,996 --> 00:43:16,596 Speaker 2: want to take one fact from the book and tell everybody. 768 00:43:17,076 --> 00:43:17,756 Speaker 1: What is it. 769 00:43:21,156 --> 00:43:24,876 Speaker 3: That the price of solar power has fallen by around 770 00:43:25,236 --> 00:43:26,836 Speaker 3: ninety percent in the last decade. 771 00:43:28,116 --> 00:43:31,156 Speaker 1: That is an amazing fact and life. 772 00:43:30,996 --> 00:43:32,836 Speaker 3: Change in fact. I mean, I think this is just 773 00:43:32,956 --> 00:43:37,036 Speaker 3: this is just going to define the energy transition that 774 00:43:37,076 --> 00:43:40,796 Speaker 3: we just so crucially need to solve climate change. Without 775 00:43:40,796 --> 00:43:43,636 Speaker 3: this change, I'd be super severer pessimistic about this, And 776 00:43:43,716 --> 00:43:48,156 Speaker 3: with this change, I'm cautiously optimistic. 777 00:43:49,236 --> 00:43:55,276 Speaker 2: London versus Edinburgh, Edinburgh because people can understand what. 778 00:43:55,236 --> 00:44:00,756 Speaker 3: I'm saying because you speak the language, because I speak 779 00:44:00,756 --> 00:44:06,556 Speaker 3: the language. Yeah. 780 00:44:08,156 --> 00:44:10,596 Speaker 2: Hannah Ritchie is the author of Not the End of 781 00:44:10,636 --> 00:44:13,836 Speaker 2: the World and the deputy editor of Our World in Data. 782 00:44:14,556 --> 00:44:17,796 Speaker 2: Today's show was produced by Gabriel Hunter Chang. It was 783 00:44:18,076 --> 00:44:21,516 Speaker 2: edited by Lyddy Jean Kott and engineered by Sarah Bruguer. 784 00:44:22,036 --> 00:44:25,556 Speaker 2: You can email us at problem at Pushkin dot FM. 785 00:44:25,756 --> 00:44:28,076 Speaker 2: I'm Jacob Goldstein and we'll be back next week with 786 00:44:28,156 --> 00:44:40,636 Speaker 2: another episode of What's Your Problem.