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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcasts.

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Speaker 2: If you are even remotely a savage, you'll run these

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Speaker 2: people over for a second. Hello Moping the Action Network podcast.

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Speaker 2: UFC Betting Preview. I'm Sean Derillo, joined today by Billy

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Speaker 2: Ward to help you break down a thirteen fight card

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Speaker 2: for UFC Vegas one point fifteen to give your best bets,

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Speaker 2: favorite underdogs, top props and more. Presented today as always

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Speaker 2: by Draft Gangs. And if you'd like to tell some

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Speaker 2: of the bets that we discuss on today's show, make

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Speaker 2: sure to find the quick sub link both in the

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Speaker 2: podcast and video description, or visit actionwork dot com slash

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Speaker 2: bet now. Thirteen fight card as always as of now

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Speaker 2: from the Apex and Las Vegas, Nevada Prelims five PM

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Speaker 2: main card, E eight PM six fight main card APM

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Speaker 2: on Saturday, again at the twenty five foot octagon at

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Speaker 2: the Ufcapex. Finish rates up about eight to ten percent

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Speaker 2: compared to the normal thirty foot octagon you see on

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Speaker 2: the traveling shows. The main event Chris Duncan at about

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Speaker 2: minus one seventy going up against Hanato Money Moikano at

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Speaker 2: around plus one fifty five round lightweight fight. I believe

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Speaker 2: Duncan's first ever main event Moikano's third career five round fight,

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Speaker 2: though only one of those went all twenty five minutes,

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Speaker 2: and it was one that he took on just four

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Speaker 2: days notice against Hafael Dosanos. We'll get to that fight

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Speaker 2: or discuss that as part of the analysis in a moment,

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Speaker 2: but Billy and I are aligned here on the underdog

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Speaker 2: Moikano at plus one fifty, at least from a pre

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Speaker 2: fight perspective. I have seen a lot of takes discussing

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Speaker 2: betting Duncan live at some point during the fight. I

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Speaker 2: think that is certainly an entry point you can take.

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Speaker 2: I'm just not as confident I guess as others that

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Speaker 2: he has such a distinct cardio advantage over Moikano. Again,

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Speaker 2: Moikano went five rounds all twenty five minutes with RDA

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Speaker 2: on just four days notice. We've seen a lot of

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Speaker 2: toughness from him when fighters aren't able to just put

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Speaker 2: him straight out, and in my opinion, we will see

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Speaker 2: if it plays out. I don't think Duncan necessarily has

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Speaker 2: the wrestling to do what he wants to dictate where

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Speaker 2: this fight takes place. So if this is going to

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Speaker 2: play out as a striking fight, it is actually Moikano

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Speaker 2: who is the more efficient striking stats and against better competition.

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Speaker 2: If this is going to go to the grappling, though

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Speaker 2: Duncan does have the better control rate by the numbers,

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Speaker 2: it is Moi Kano for me, who is likelier to

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Speaker 2: get the position and potentially the control time. He's the

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Speaker 2: better backtaker the pair of Duncan and the better ar

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Speaker 2: naked choke of the pair. Duncan has the front chokes

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Speaker 2: on lock, the guillotine, the Anna Kondi that he's going

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Speaker 2: for more the resistance type of grappling, you know, grappling,

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Speaker 2: resistance type of chokes where Moi Kano is looking to

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Speaker 2: progress the positions he wants and finish the fight. So

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Speaker 2: just the four year age gap between the parrots, not

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Speaker 2: like Duncan has some huge youth advantage. Why Conno is

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Speaker 2: an inschaller has the one in treach advantage And what

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Speaker 2: I find really interesting here Billy, and I'm curious if

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Speaker 2: you have this take as well. I feel like since

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Speaker 2: Duncan won his Contender Series fight, his first Contender Series fight,

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Speaker 2: he was knocked out by Slava Claus. His second Contender

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Speaker 2: Series fight got nearly knocked out almost immediately by Charlie Campbell,

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Speaker 2: popped back up like the Undertaker knocked Charlie Campbell out,

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Speaker 2: And I almost feel like since that knockout, people had

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Speaker 2: been trying to fade Duncan catch a falling knife. He

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Speaker 2: kept finishing opponents, kept winning as a big underdog, eventually

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Speaker 2: did lose a fight, but then got right back on

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Speaker 2: his winning streak. Do you feel like people have mostly

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Speaker 2: been trying to fade Chris Duncan for the majority of

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Speaker 2: his progression of the ladder in the UFC, and now

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Speaker 2: he's arrived at his first main event, and it really

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Speaker 2: feels like this is one of the first times where

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Speaker 2: he's a clear favorite on the money line at minus

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Speaker 2: one seventies. So the recency bias, I feel like, or

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Speaker 2: the adjustment in the line feels a bit improper. But

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Speaker 2: also I don't share a lot of the concerns that

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Speaker 2: I would normally have for Mokano fights with some big

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Speaker 2: power puncher going against him. I think this is going

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Speaker 2: to play out as a close and competitive fight, and

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Speaker 2: I think Moykano is definitely in there well enough early

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Speaker 2: to potentially lou move his line down closer to even

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Speaker 2: money and allow you a live entry point on Duncan.

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Speaker 2: So a long way of saying, we're both on the

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Speaker 2: underdog in this fight, Billy, I'm curious of your analysis

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Speaker 2: as well, though. I make moy Kano after my market

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Speaker 2: adjusted model factored in all the data points about plus

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Speaker 2: one point fifteen, so I like them down about plus

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Speaker 2: one thirty five. What are your thoughts here where do

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Speaker 2: you like Mokano down to? And any other analysis or

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Speaker 2: props or bets that you have for this fight, including

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Speaker 2: live betting.

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Speaker 1: Answer your original question about Chris Duncan in the fade.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of it had to do with

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Speaker 1: a level of competition. He thought even kind of through

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Speaker 1: Terrence McKinney. As we always talk about with Terrence McKinney.

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Speaker 1: We just did last week. If you can survive a

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Speaker 1: minute or two, you're going to beat Terrence mcginny, And

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Speaker 1: he got McKinney exactly at the halfway point of the

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Speaker 1: first round. So I don't know that people were necessarily

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Speaker 1: trying to jump on Chris Duncan. It's just he fought

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Speaker 1: in a way tougher opponents earlier in his career. You know,

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Speaker 1: you know, Ash moves has at his moments. Manuel Torre

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Speaker 1: is obviously very good, and then they gave him Jordan

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Speaker 1: Busanitch and Terence McKinney, who's not bad by any stretch,

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Speaker 1: but there's a very clear path. So that's my read

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Speaker 1: on that. I'm hoping to get one fifty or better

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Speaker 1: on mo Kano. I think you can still get some

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Speaker 1: of those. Should have jumped on it earlier in the

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Speaker 1: week when that was the prevailing line. As far as

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Speaker 1: the live stuff, I don't know that Duncan necessarily has

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Speaker 1: a cardio edge. I was surprised that that's what people

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Speaker 1: are saying. There's an angle there where if it looks

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Speaker 1: like mo Kana wants to wrestle and he's spending energy

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Speaker 1: getting going for takedown so that he's not getting then

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Speaker 1: by all means, but that also applies the other way.

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Speaker 1: I could very much see Duncan being the one trying

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Speaker 1: to wrestle here, and if mo Kano defends them or

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Speaker 1: gets taken down and pops right back up or any

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Speaker 1: of those things, that he's probably the sharper live side.

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Speaker 1: So it's not a I'm going to come into this

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Speaker 1: one with a live angle, and it's let's read what's

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Speaker 1: going on here. We've talked about it on the discord

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Speaker 1: a ton, but sometimes when like fighter A wins round

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Speaker 1: one and Fighter B wins round two, you can get

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Speaker 1: a great price on Fighter A even though the scorer

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Speaker 1: is theoretically tied, so we could have a situation like that.

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Speaker 1: The real reason I like Mkano money line wise, though,

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Speaker 1: is I think he's underrated for how smart and how

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Speaker 1: good of a game planner he is. And what really

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Speaker 1: impressed me was the BSD fight where he was beaten

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Speaker 1: ben Jia Antony up real hard in the first round,

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Speaker 1: realized there was a cut on BSD, got a take down,

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Speaker 1: and kind of coasted through it, just because why take

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Speaker 1: any chances against someone who desperately needs to get a

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Speaker 1: stoppage before their eye falls out. And he's at other

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Speaker 1: moments where he got rocked by Jalen Turner, but Jalen

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Speaker 1: Turner kind of let up, he made the correct adjustments.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure that Duncan has that in him necessarily.

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Speaker 1: He's just out there scrapping hard, which is fun and

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Speaker 1: why he keeps getting made events. We also should note

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Speaker 1: this is another mate Chris Duncan fight where he's matched

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Speaker 1: up with the AT teammate you just fought Rebecchki two

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Speaker 1: fights ago. I don't know why they keep doing this

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Speaker 1: to him. It seems uncomfortable and awkward because those guys

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Speaker 1: all like living dorms together at ATT. Duncan has a

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Speaker 1: funny story about Rebecchki's behavior in the dorms that I

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Speaker 1: won't repeat on here, if anyone wants to go look

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Speaker 1: it up. There's some moments there. I don't know if

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Speaker 1: he has similar takes with moy Kano, but yeah, I

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Speaker 1: don't know if that's going to contribute to both guys

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Speaker 1: been a little bit more cautious. We kind of thought

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Speaker 1: that with the Rebeccy fight was not the case. Duncan

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Speaker 1: came out guns blazing, as did Matoush, as they always do.

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Speaker 1: Just something to keep in mind, especially for live stuff, though,

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Speaker 1: if they both open up a little bit cautious because

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Speaker 1: of familiarity, they might not be as tired going into

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Speaker 1: the later round, etc. Last thing you mentioned the chokes

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Speaker 1: from Duncan. There are all chokes that you do because

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Speaker 1: you're not great at defending takedowns, right Like, you can't

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Speaker 1: stop the takedown, so you go for a g E teen.

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Speaker 1: If you have an okay sprawl but you're worried about

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Speaker 1: the second level wrestling, you just started checking the choke

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Speaker 1: to try to deter further wrestling. Some guys literally just

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Speaker 1: force themselves into it and get choked out. Alah McKinney,

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Speaker 1: Morkano is not going to do that. Very good GRAF player.

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Speaker 1: He's not gonna get caught with a guillotine or like

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Speaker 1: a front choke because he took a bad shot. So

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Speaker 1: that that also helped me with the money line on'm

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Speaker 1: Moykano thinking it'll be more of a stand up fight

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Speaker 1: and at worst he's a fifty to fifty proposition if

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Speaker 1: it is a stand up fight.

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Speaker 2: So both on the underdog and the main event will

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Speaker 2: turn our attends into the fight of the night or

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Speaker 2: comin event between Tabitha Ricci baby Shark and Verna Jandehoba

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Speaker 2: fighter weird normally both aligned on in terms of picking

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Speaker 2: in most of her fights, but both going against Verena

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Speaker 2: in this woman strawweight match a potential title illuminator between

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Speaker 2: these two. Ricci six years younger, Jandehoba is the taller

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Speaker 2: and longer fighter touns his taller at three entreaty advantage

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Speaker 2: the better striker by the numbers, but Ricci for me,

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Speaker 2: carries more power, and I think the key takedown or

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Speaker 2: the key stat in the fight is her takedown defense

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Speaker 2: and whether she's able to deny the entries from Verna

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Speaker 2: about six takedown attempts for five minutes from Dandehoba at

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Speaker 2: Ricci's denied eleven or fourteen attempts, Ganderoba has landed thirty

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Speaker 2: of eighty, so not a huge sample for Ricci. But

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Speaker 2: what we have seen from Ricchie is when she has

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Speaker 2: gotten taken down, very aggressive in terms of getting right

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Speaker 2: back up to her feet as quickly as she can.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not confident that Vernon will get her down,

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Speaker 2: but if she does, I am confident that Richie will

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Speaker 2: do everything she can to try to scramble back up

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Speaker 2: as quickly as possible, and I think she will land

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Speaker 2: the more eye catching strikes of the pair. So Ricchie.

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Speaker 2: I will get into it a little bit more later,

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Speaker 2: but she is the side in this fight for me,

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Speaker 2: and I know she is for you as well. Billy,

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Speaker 2: Where do you set her in terms of a price,

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Speaker 2: where do you like her on the betting line? And

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Speaker 2: any of their props or live angles you like here too.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I'd be comfortable all the way down

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Speaker 1: to like minus one twenty with Ricchi. It's not going

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Speaker 1: to come up like we're going to get I think

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Speaker 1: it worse even money. No matter when you're listening to this.

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Speaker 1: You mentioned the striking. There's two parts of that that

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Speaker 1: I noticed when doing my tape study for the full

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Speaker 1: preview of this. One is she throws almost twice as

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Speaker 1: many strikes the feet per minute as Janderhobo, which even

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Speaker 1: if you're not landing, that can sometimes sway judges. She

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Speaker 1: has benefited from some close decisions where she's just doing

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Speaker 1: more stuff in that sometimes is enough to convince judges,

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Speaker 1: and especially in a women's strawweight fight that we expect

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Speaker 1: to go to the decision more often than not, that's

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Speaker 1: a big factor. She also made really good improvements to

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Speaker 1: her striking, probably not a coincidence, around the time she

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Speaker 1: started dating a professional boxer. Her striking got a lot better.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you can see how that happens. But spending

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Speaker 1: more time in the boxing gyms with ZUFA boxing star

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Speaker 1: Callum Walsh will do that for you. And yeah, you

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Speaker 1: mentioned the power at this weight class, it's the lightest

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Speaker 1: one in the UFC. Speed and reflexes and all those

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Speaker 1: things are so important. And Janderoba turns thirty eight next month.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that she's declined yet, but she is declining.

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Speaker 1: She's not in her prime anymore. Where Ricci it I believe,

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Speaker 1: just turned thirty one is coming into her prime, if

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Speaker 1: not right at the peak of it. So there's that element.

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Speaker 1: The other thing you mentioned with the grappling jenner Ooba

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Speaker 1: is very patient on the ground. She is not going

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Speaker 1: to over extend herself looking for a submission or strikes

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Speaker 1: unless she feels like she has real, solid and firm control,

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Speaker 1: which is great. That's what I preach all the time,

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Speaker 1: both when I'm helping coach jiu jitsu and talking about

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Speaker 1: MMA fighters. That's great most of the time, but when

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Speaker 1: you're fighting someone like Ricci with a judo background where

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Speaker 1: you can lose by pin, she's never going to be

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Speaker 1: square on the mat and just allowing you to control

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Speaker 1: her there. And you've seen that in the other losses

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Speaker 1: for Jandehoba. She lost to Mackenzie Durna in the title fight,

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Speaker 1: landed nine takedowns, almost nothing with those takedowns. I don't

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Speaker 1: have the exact ground strikes in front of me right now,

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Speaker 1: but yeah, nine takedowns, three strikes on the ground landed.

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Speaker 1: She lost to Amanda Heebis, who Ricchie just beat only

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Speaker 1: one takedown in that fight, also had a knockdown, but

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Speaker 1: didn't do much with the takedown. Ricchie is cut from

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Speaker 1: those same cloths where she's not going to just accept

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Speaker 1: bottom position to let you work. As you pointed out,

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Speaker 1: she's going to screen a lot, which means even if

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Speaker 1: Jandehoba is getting takedowns, they're probably not going to do

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Speaker 1: much for the judges. And then Tabadahichi can punch the

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Speaker 1: space in front of Janderoba's face for four minutes and

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Speaker 1: convince some judges that that's enough to win around as

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Speaker 1: she so often does. But also, like you pointed out,

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Speaker 1: the power is new and developing and maybe that comes

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Speaker 1: into play too.

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Speaker 2: Could move to the our favorite underdogs and stay in

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Speaker 2: the women's divisions, but move to women's flylight for Melissa

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Speaker 2: Gato against Anni Barbosa. This fight is around minus two

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Speaker 2: twenty to go to a decision. I'm taking the underdog

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Speaker 2: here as well. Gotto has been off for a few years,

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Speaker 2: but she is four years younger. She has a three

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Speaker 2: inch reach advantage, has the better striking stats by the numbers.

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Speaker 2: Also finished all of her UFC wins and her clothes.

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Speaker 2: Her two losses in the UFC one was a split,

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Speaker 2: another was a close decision loss, both to good fighters

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Speaker 2: Tracy Bertez and Arian Elipski. I actually made Gatto a

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Speaker 2: favorite in this fight after accounting for all of the

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Speaker 2: market aspects that I incorporate into my model, just handicapping

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Speaker 2: the market specifically, so I would bet Gotto probably do

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Speaker 2: about minus one ten minus one twenty. But you're getting

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Speaker 2: around the same price as Reach you right now close

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Speaker 2: to plus one ten, around plus one o eight. So

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Speaker 2: billy agreement, disagreement here on Melissa Gatto coming off of

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Speaker 2: a long layoff against the Anie Barbosa and an all

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Speaker 2: Brazilian woman's flylight fight.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, mostly agree. I almost had Gotto in my luck

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Speaker 1: ratings earlier this week for the reason you mentioned one

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Speaker 1: of our losses was a split. The layoff was enough

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Speaker 1: to keep me away at this price, I was hoping

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Speaker 1: we got a little better. Both women kind of have

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Speaker 1: the same thing where they've lost two tougher opponents and

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Speaker 1: then just beaten up on the dregs of the division,

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Speaker 1: which makes them hard to rate in general. I'm not

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Speaker 1: looking forward to this fight because I expect it to

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Speaker 1: be the most entertaining. I'm looking forward to this fight

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Speaker 1: to get a better handle on if either of them

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Speaker 1: really have ranked potential or you know how high these

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Speaker 1: women can go, because neither their losses nor their wins

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Speaker 1: have told us much so far.

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Speaker 2: Moving on to the lightweight division, Darius Flowers at about

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Speaker 2: plus one ninety going against Lando Vanada. Vanada hasn't fought

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Speaker 2: in three years, also pulled out of his last two

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Speaker 2: bookings due to injuries, so some significant concerns at his

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Speaker 2: age and also at the stage of his career that

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Speaker 2: he just may be declining physically dealing with injuries. Obviously

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Speaker 2: as a result of those pullouts. Flowers own three in

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Speaker 2: the UFC, does have pretty significant power though, and we

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Speaker 2: have seen with Vanada him get hurt really badly by

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Speaker 2: Daniel zell Huber in round one, ended up surviving all

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Speaker 2: the way to a decision. But do you think the injuries,

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Speaker 2: the potential chin issues, the long layoff all can contribute

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Speaker 2: to him getting caught by Flowers here, I think this

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Speaker 2: is closer to a Pickham fight given the age differential

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Speaker 2: and the power on the Flowers side. It's not a

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Speaker 2: huge age of differential just three years, but the likely

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Speaker 2: physical differential given Vanada's potential injuries in the long layoffs.

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Speaker 2: So Darius Flowers round one KO probably the look. But

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Speaker 2: on the money line, I make them closer to a

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Speaker 2: pick them price. I think any down to about plus

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Speaker 2: one thirty is probably fine on Flowers, Billy, I think

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Speaker 2: your in agreement on this one is, while Flowers could

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Speaker 2: be worth an underdog, look what would be your price

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Speaker 2: target and agree that round one KO is probably his

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Speaker 2: likeliest path.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I suppose we're getting a good enough price on

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Speaker 1: the money line that I'm not trying to get too

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Speaker 1: cute here. I think if we had to, I'd probably

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Speaker 1: go down to about plus one seventy. Public money seems

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Speaker 1: to be leaning towards Lando, so I was just waiting

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Speaker 1: as long as I could. Plus one eighty five is fine,

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Speaker 1: hoping we see a plus two hundred in there at

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Speaker 1: some point. So I'm waiting on this one. Personally, you

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Speaker 1: have plus one ninety five in the sheet, so yes,

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Speaker 1: it's continued to move. Since I looked at it, I

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Speaker 1: thought until this week that both these dudes have been

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Speaker 1: cut from the UFC. We haven't seen Lando in almost

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Speaker 1: three years, Flowers is almost two years. They both on

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Speaker 1: losing streaks. No idea where they pulled these guys from.

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Speaker 1: There's so much variance in that and the fact that

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Speaker 1: we haven't seen either of them that I don't know

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Speaker 1: how you make the line so wide, right, because we

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Speaker 1: have no idea what these guys have been doing for

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Speaker 1: very extended periods. It could have got better or worse,

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Speaker 1: been hurt, be fat, out of shape like nobody knows,

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Speaker 1: So to be more than two to one odds on

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Speaker 1: one side of it feels wrong. Also, Landovanada seems to

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Speaker 1: not have his long hair anymore, and I don't think

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Speaker 1: he should be allowed to use the nickname Groovy with

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Speaker 1: a shaped head like Groovy Landovnada with long hair is

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Speaker 1: an entirely different animal than what looks to be Edward

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Speaker 1: Norton's character from American History acts.

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Speaker 2: YEI right now, Lando, pretty binary fight between those two.

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Speaker 2: Vanada needs to get to the grappling and try to

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Speaker 2: get on top of Flowers and likely submit them or

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Speaker 2: at least control them on the ground. Another striker versus

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Speaker 2: grappler match or potentially Ethan Ewing against Raphael Estevam in

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Speaker 2: the bantamweight division. I like Estevam is the underdog here.

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Speaker 2: I picked this also make this also close to a

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Speaker 2: pick them fight, so getting plus one twenty five is

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Speaker 2: fine down to about plus one fifteen. He's the taller man,

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Speaker 2: same reach. Ewing is about the same age as well,

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Speaker 2: But this is a fight where I think is could

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Speaker 2: expose Youing. Scrappling defense is wrestling defense. We saw Youing

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Speaker 2: come into the UFC pull big upset over Malcolm well Maker,

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Speaker 2: but did not get grappled in that fight. He is

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Speaker 2: going to get grabbled here. The main concern on my

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Speaker 2: end with his stevom is just that he could gaff

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Speaker 2: himself out. But he's moving up in weight class here,

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Speaker 2: so I do think he should be able to handle

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Speaker 2: the fifteen minutes in the pace a little bit better.

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Speaker 2: This is a guy who averages nearly nineteen takedown attempts

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Speaker 2: for five minutes a distance. Doesn't necessarily do a ton

359
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Speaker 2: on top, but he is relentless in pursuing them and

360
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 2: will control guys for long stretches. Just wish you would

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Speaker 2: add a little bit more ground to pound when he

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Speaker 2: is on top of guys. But as stevom as the

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Speaker 2: wrestler as the underdog, like him down to about plus

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Speaker 2: one fifteen plus one ten against Ethan Ewing. All another

365
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Speaker 2: bet on that fight coming up in the top prop section. Billy,

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Speaker 2: Any thoughts on this one.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the second fight including the Flowers, where

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Speaker 1: I was leaning that way and then saw you put

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Speaker 1: it in the sheet and decided to jump in. This

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Speaker 1: is a classic. A guy did really well in his debut,

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Speaker 1: and I think we're overvaluing that. The reason I say

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Speaker 1: that is because everyone says, Wow, it's really tough for

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Speaker 1: Ethan Ewing. He's coming in, you know, off the street

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Speaker 1: or whatever to fight Malcolm Wellmaker. I think Wellmaker had

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Speaker 1: three different opponents in the camp for that fight, and

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Speaker 1: Ewing was also training for an event that weekend, so

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Speaker 1: it really wasn't an advantage to Wellmaker. Like they both

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Speaker 1: got fresh opponents, they both had to adjust on the

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Speaker 1: flight of the game plan, and Ewing was just able

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Speaker 1: to do that slightly better against Wallmaker. That doesn't mean

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Speaker 1: he can do that against everyone else. That doesn't mean,

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Speaker 1: he's always going to come in and be fighting that

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Speaker 1: loose and free and knowing he's a massive underdog and

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Speaker 1: you know, just laying his heart out there. I think

385
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Speaker 1: it's a little bit in some ways harder to do

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Speaker 1: that with a full camp when the expectations are there.

387
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Speaker 1: So like astavaum a lot. I'm glad he's moving up

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Speaker 1: to bantamweight. He missed weight I think in two of

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Speaker 1: his three UFC performances so far, which isn't great. The

390
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Speaker 1: one thing that scares me is that he's just much

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Speaker 1: smaller than Ethan Ewing. And we'll see if that's the

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Speaker 1: case when they get into the cage, because Ewing technically

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Speaker 1: fought at one forty five in his debut against Weallmaker.

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Speaker 1: I think always planned on being a bantam weight, so

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Speaker 1: that's interesting. And then last question before we move on

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Speaker 1: Sean Ethan Ewing's nickname is the professor Finesser. Is he

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Speaker 1: a professor of Finessing or does he finesse professors? Your thoughts?

398
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:20,119
Speaker 2: I think he's a professor of Finessing. Isn't Doesn't he

399
00:19:20,160 --> 00:19:22,959
Speaker 2: also have like a blue collar job though, so like

400
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,879
Speaker 2: that doesn't that doesn't really align with finesse right, like,

401
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:29,240
Speaker 2: that's more strength and power. He has a PhD in

402
00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:32,040
Speaker 2: I don't know what to do with that nickname. That's

403
00:19:32,080 --> 00:19:34,400
Speaker 2: a weird one. We've we've got a wild nickname coming

404
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 2: up with an Italian fighters. A little bit that I

405
00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:39,920
Speaker 2: will get to you, but first you have another underdog

406
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Speaker 2: that you like on this card, a Brazil versus Poland

407
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:46,240
Speaker 2: matchup in the featherweight division between Jose Delano Delano I'm

408
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:51,160
Speaker 2: not sure to pronounce that surname, and Robert Ruhala Ruhala

409
00:19:51,200 --> 00:19:56,199
Speaker 2: around plus two seventy five. My model actually agrees with

410
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Speaker 2: you on this one. I make I make Delano about

411
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Speaker 2: minus two sixty. So there is definitely some value in

412
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,480
Speaker 2: the Ruhala side for me. Didn't break this one down

413
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Speaker 2: in terms of tape. What did you see here in

414
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Speaker 2: the matchup? Where do you like Ruhala down to?

415
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:12,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, Ruala is just being undervalued because he lost in

416
00:20:12,520 --> 00:20:15,919
Speaker 1: his UFC debut, but that came against William Gome in France,

417
00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 1: which is a tough fight, a tough situation. All the above,

418
00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:21,320
Speaker 1: Rusalo is a really good grappler, like he has a

419
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Speaker 1: bunch of grappling experience before coming to the UFC and Delano.

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Speaker 1: Delano whichever it is, was taken down twice in his

421
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Speaker 1: Contender series fight that he won by decision. Good striker,

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00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:34,000
Speaker 1: But I think Rushala's grappling advantage is big enough in

423
00:20:34,080 --> 00:20:36,480
Speaker 1: a small cage in particular that if we're getting this

424
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Speaker 1: kind of price, it's it's wild to me. Like I,

425
00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,080
Speaker 1: Delano deserves to be a favorite, but he should be

426
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Speaker 1: like minus one fifty minus one eighty, not minus three hundred.

427
00:20:45,520 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 1: So I will take the value here. Rushala points spread

428
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,280
Speaker 1: also an option on DraftKings. With that prop being offered,

429
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 1: I think the money line is the better play. I

430
00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:55,960
Speaker 1: don't remember the price off the top of my head,

431
00:20:55,960 --> 00:20:58,120
Speaker 1: but either of those options make a lot of sense.

432
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's about plus two to seventy five. I've on

433
00:21:01,119 --> 00:21:04,080
Speaker 2: the money line for Ruhala for move on. Don't forget

434
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:05,600
Speaker 2: to sign up for Action Pro for real time pick

435
00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:08,240
Speaker 2: alerts from experts like Billy Ward myself. Ourn't hire Action

436
00:21:08,280 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 2: Network team. When Billy fires his bet on rulyle into

437
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:13,320
Speaker 2: the app, you'll be able to get the alert, and

438
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,159
Speaker 2: you'll get it right away without a thirty minute delay. Plus,

439
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 2: you can access pro projections powered by Sean Kerner and

440
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,400
Speaker 2: our entire predictive analytics team. Just go to action work

441
00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,959
Speaker 2: dot com, slash pro and use Promo code Pod twenty.

442
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,119
Speaker 2: Don't miss out on the best bets at best prices.

443
00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:30,160
Speaker 2: Visit actionework dot com slash Pro use Permo code Pod

444
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Speaker 2: twenty to get twenty dollars off a year of Action Pro.

445
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:36,600
Speaker 2: Before we continue with moruofc, here's a quick word for

446
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,199
Speaker 2: myself about DraftKings. The Action Work podcast is sponsored by

447
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 2: Drafting Sportsbook, where new customers could bet five dollars and

448
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 2: get tuner hours back and bonus bets instantly. Love the

449
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 2: thrill of live betting. Draftings has got you covered. Bet

450
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:50,480
Speaker 2: live on STARp player props and in progress games right

451
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 2: as they happen to get started. To use promo code

452
00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:55,400
Speaker 2: Actiontwork when signing up with Draftings, and again use Code

453
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: Action Network when signing up and bet five bucks to

454
00:21:57,560 --> 00:22:00,399
Speaker 2: get tuner back and bonus bets instantly. The crown is

455
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,439
Speaker 2: yours and with that we're going to move on to

456
00:22:02,480 --> 00:22:06,840
Speaker 2: our top prop section presented by Draftkinks. I've got about

457
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,439
Speaker 2: four totals that I'm looking at in this section. Billy

458
00:22:09,920 --> 00:22:12,840
Speaker 2: has two or three bets that he's looking at the

459
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,199
Speaker 2: first of which for me is right back to that

460
00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 2: Ethan Ewing Rafael A stev On fight. I like the

461
00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 2: fight to go to a decision at about minus two hundred.

462
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:24,600
Speaker 2: Talked about a Stevon moving up and weight, Youing moving

463
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,399
Speaker 2: down and weight. My main concern on a finish was

464
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: a Stevom tiring out and getting himself finished in a

465
00:22:30,600 --> 00:22:32,400
Speaker 2: high paced fight late. I think he should be able

466
00:22:32,400 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 2: to handle the fifteen minutes a little bit better without

467
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 2: sucking himself dry. To cut down to one twenty five, So,

468
00:22:40,480 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 2: as a result, the fight to go to a decision

469
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 2: at about minus one sixty five. In addition to the

470
00:22:45,680 --> 00:22:49,520
Speaker 2: Estevom side of the money line, Billy, where are you

471
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:50,400
Speaker 2: going for your first prop?

472
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 1: Yeah? My first one is in the opening? This was

473
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,560
Speaker 1: added weird. It came popped up, I think on Tuesday

474
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,880
Speaker 1: on typology. Kai Kamaka the third return to the UFC

475
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:04,119
Speaker 1: to take on what is Hope's first name, Dakota Hope

476
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 1: in eleven to one prospect. I like this one under

477
00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 1: two and a half. I was really surprised at this price.

478
00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,879
Speaker 1: It's plus two thirty five. Kamaka, from what I remember

479
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 1: of him, pretty powerful striker. The real reason though, is

480
00:23:15,320 --> 00:23:17,200
Speaker 1: there's a lot of variants here. This is another high

481
00:23:17,280 --> 00:23:20,920
Speaker 1: variant spot. You get finishes when there's a bigger gap

482
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: between the two fighters skill levels. That's why if you

483
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 1: go to a local show, almost all the fight surrending

484
00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,320
Speaker 1: in the first round. Well, a lot of UFC pay

485
00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 1: per views, it's decision after decision, just because at the

486
00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:34,040
Speaker 1: high levels, the margins at that different. I would not

487
00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,560
Speaker 1: be shocked if either one of these men is way

488
00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:39,360
Speaker 1: better than the other. I'm not confident enough in which

489
00:23:39,359 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 1: one it would be, but both guys have good power,

490
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 1: both guys like to strike. Coming in not all that

491
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 1: prepared unless they knew about it, but it wasn't public information,

492
00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 1: which I would be surprised by. I think there's a

493
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:54,200
Speaker 1: high probability that somebody gets finished here. Leaning a little

494
00:23:54,200 --> 00:23:57,280
Speaker 1: bit towards Kamaka, his last four losses were all either

495
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: splitter majority decisions, which is kind of funny. Most of

496
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,720
Speaker 1: his wins, not most, A good chunk of his wins

497
00:24:02,760 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 1: have been finishes where Hope is just fought in, has

498
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:09,920
Speaker 1: just fought a much lower level of competition and could

499
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: be that good or could be you know, just kind

500
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 1: of a faker who was thrown in at the last

501
00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,439
Speaker 1: minute because they needed someone. Either way, I think that

502
00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 1: leads to a decision or a finish way more than

503
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,440
Speaker 1: the plus two thirty five under two and a half

504
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 1: line implies.

505
00:24:24,640 --> 00:24:26,960
Speaker 2: We'll get the fight between Tommy McMillan, who's a minus

506
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 2: thirteen hundred favorite against Manola Zecchini, my new favorite Italian

507
00:24:31,280 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 2: named UFC fighter. And the best part about manola'z Acchini

508
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,640
Speaker 2: is his nickname is Angelo Neziano, which I have come

509
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: to learn as a character from The Young and the Restless,

510
00:24:40,119 --> 00:24:43,400
Speaker 2: which is a daytime soap opera. So if Manola Zecchini,

511
00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:47,639
Speaker 2: who was not already a mouthful for Bruce Buffer angelov

512
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:51,840
Speaker 2: and Eziano Zucchini is just beautiful. In terms of the flow,

513
00:24:52,320 --> 00:24:55,080
Speaker 2: Marvin Vittori never had that. You can't say Marvin Vattori

514
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 2: like with your fingers and like, really, it doesn't flow

515
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:02,840
Speaker 2: that well. Alessio de Chericho just doesn't. It doesn't. Manola Zacchini,

516
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, that flows so sounds like apasta dish.

517
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:10,280
Speaker 2: Love the name. He's also an eight to one underdog

518
00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:15,800
Speaker 2: against Tommy McMillan this weekend. McMillan training partner of Sean O'Malley.

519
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 2: Seems like it, even if you didn't know it just

520
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: by watching him speak or act for like three minutes,

521
00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:27,399
Speaker 2: very cringe worthy. Could be a very polarizing fighter in

522
00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 2: the UFC. Has a lot of round one submissions, mostly

523
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 2: because guys are trying to take him down and not

524
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 2: trying to stand with him. Zacchini is not going to

525
00:25:35,320 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 2: be trying to dig him down. But it does seem

526
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,680
Speaker 2: like McMillan, based on the interviews, is completely underestimating this dude,

527
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 2: and I think there could be some octagon like underestimation

528
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 2: where this fight ends up going a little bit longer

529
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,280
Speaker 2: just because Zacchini is overlooking his opponent. So the over

530
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,120
Speaker 2: one and a half rounds is plus one twenty five.

531
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: That's a huge number on a fight to go to

532
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 2: a decision. I'm not sure if he's betting if I'm

533
00:25:57,720 --> 00:26:01,760
Speaker 2: betting these yet, but relative to the division featherweight division,

534
00:26:02,160 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 2: relative to how you would project most fights, this fight

535
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:08,520
Speaker 2: is heavily, heavily juiced. To end inside the distance and

536
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,399
Speaker 2: to go under one and a half rounds, I think

537
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 2: it has to be overpass in terms of the total. Billy,

538
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 2: would I be dumb to take the over here. Do

539
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 2: you think McMillan just runs through this guy. No.

540
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 1: I liked that a lot. Crucially, McMillan got to the

541
00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,440
Speaker 1: UFC with a majority decision on Contender Series.

542
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: He gets the good opponent though.

543
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:29,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, but so is a guy who's already in the UFC.

544
00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,399
Speaker 1: Manolo Zucchini also a good opponent. He's not gonna be

545
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:36,320
Speaker 1: a top fifteen fight or anything, but you know, solid

546
00:26:36,400 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 1: level pro came in there, took a short notice fight,

547
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:42,000
Speaker 1: I believe against Morgan Cherry Air and got finished with

548
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: the bodykick. Little concerning that that was like two and

549
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 1: a half years ago since we've seen Manolo Zucchini. That's

550
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 1: the one thing that gives me a little bit of

551
00:26:49,560 --> 00:26:52,760
Speaker 1: pause here. But yeah, you know, you get a majority

552
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 1: decision on the Contender Series and then come in as

553
00:26:55,359 --> 00:26:57,360
Speaker 1: minus two hundred or whatever to win in the first

554
00:26:57,440 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 1: round and a half doesn't make a ton of sense

555
00:26:59,080 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 1: to me. To your point about Bruce Buffer struggling through

556
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,439
Speaker 1: potentially the name of le Manolo Zucchini. No Bruce Buffer

557
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 1: this weekend. He is getting a much needed round off

558
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: or week off. It's Joe Martinez at the Apex. The

559
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 1: worst performance of an announcer I've ever seen in a fight.

560
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: It's usually hard to announce that poorly because you don't

561
00:27:19,240 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 1: have that many ways to screw it up. But Bruce

562
00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: Buffer found one. So he's getting a week off. Hopefully

563
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,199
Speaker 1: he'll come back recharged for USC three twenty seven and

564
00:27:28,280 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 1: be able to correctly identify the winner of the fights

565
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:32,160
Speaker 1: on the card in front of him.

566
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:34,840
Speaker 2: Yeah. I didn't enjoy thinking I had lost that bet

567
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 2: for a couple of minutes before they came back in

568
00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 2: the cage. If you saw online somebody who's in the

569
00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 2: building made a ton of money, I would assume they

570
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: were in the building made a ton of money trading

571
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,160
Speaker 2: that fight on a prediction market. I assume seeing that

572
00:27:47,200 --> 00:27:50,080
Speaker 2: there was a lot of action cage side after the

573
00:27:50,080 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 2: announcement and the fighters were not being permitted to leave,

574
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,639
Speaker 2: I think they realized that there was a mistake of

575
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,679
Speaker 2: the announcement and as a result made a life changing

576
00:27:57,760 --> 00:27:59,200
Speaker 2: trade on that fight.

577
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: Before we move on on that one, I was just

578
00:28:02,880 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 1: say shout out to everyone in the discord. I screenshotted

579
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,440
Speaker 1: your slack messages to me as that fight was being read,

580
00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 1: and they've all clipped it and turned it into emoji

581
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 1: and stuff. So everyone is loving the shan Zerulo live

582
00:28:14,520 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 1: reaction to thinking he lost a beat because Bruce Boffer

583
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 1: can no longer read it ninety five years old.

584
00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 2: Yeah that was actually but yeah, after the Adrien yanyez

585
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 2: Uh split draw majority draw. Don't even know how that happens, because,

586
00:28:28,520 --> 00:28:30,160
Speaker 2: I mean, he nearly finished the fight with the ten

587
00:28:30,200 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 2: eight in the third round, but that was a competter

588
00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 2: to fight until the final. Maybe that wrong too, Maybe

589
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 2: maybe maybe a win.

590
00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: And we just didn't notice because it was a draw

591
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: in ton of a lot.

592
00:28:41,120 --> 00:28:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're gonna have to We're gonna have to figure

593
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 2: out if Joe Martinez can go back and review the

594
00:28:44,680 --> 00:28:47,320
Speaker 2: scorecards last week or whether Bruce took him with him.

595
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 2: You're looking at a fight between a big favorite and

596
00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 2: a big underdog. In terms of your next props, that's

597
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:57,040
Speaker 2: a dual rock manya Kaya against Brentson Roberto. We've seen

598
00:28:57,080 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: Roberto finish quickly a bunch of times in the U.

599
00:29:01,160 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 2: Yakayev is twenty five years old, He's unbeaten, has a

600
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:06,480
Speaker 2: number of round one finishes on his record. I think

601
00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 2: six of his eight wins have come in round one.

602
00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 2: Roberto has gotten knocked out in the first round, and

603
00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 2: I believe his past five losses. So you were betting

604
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: on this fight to go over half around, I think,

605
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 2: and also for Yakaiev to win the fight in round two.

606
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 2: What's the line on the over half a round prop

607
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:27,920
Speaker 2: and then what did you see in terms of the

608
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 2: breakdown that you think can let Roberto survive for at

609
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:32,320
Speaker 2: least five minutes?

610
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, the over half of a round is minus one

611
00:29:35,960 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 1: seventy five. I think we might actually get a better

612
00:29:38,160 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: price as everyone's parlay has like quick finished versions of

613
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:44,920
Speaker 1: yaki Iev, So don't bet that, not wait until we

614
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:48,240
Speaker 1: get closer. Yakiev between the Contender Series and the UFC

615
00:29:48,720 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 1: has fought a minute in three seconds in those two fights,

616
00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:53,040
Speaker 1: which I know is not making my point very well.

617
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,920
Speaker 1: But he fought some like big Goofy dude who is

618
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: a software engineer on the Contender Series and just obliterated him.

619
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: And then he fought half Iel Sir Korea in his

620
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:05,720
Speaker 1: UFC debut Sir Korea oh to four in the UFC

621
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 1: officially to the point that the last time he was fighting,

622
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: you and I were discussing whether he was actively trying

623
00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:15,560
Speaker 1: to win fights or not. So Yes, Yakaiev can get

624
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: people out of there, but I'm not sure how much

625
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: these people wanted to be in there in the first place.

626
00:30:20,320 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: And Hiberio, to his credit, you know, a couple wins

627
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 1: in the UFC. One of his losses went to a decision.

628
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 1: He's fought some tough dudes. It's a big step up

629
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 1: for Yakiyev. There's also the factor of maybe his camp

630
00:30:31,440 --> 00:30:33,720
Speaker 1: is like, hey, let's build some cage time, let's get

631
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: some experience. You see guys do this. Not a UFC example,

632
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 1: but we saw with Gable Steveson in his last fight

633
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 1: in Mexico, where he could have killed the dude in

634
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,920
Speaker 1: ten seconds but stretched it out three or four minutes,

635
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: got some different reads. Stuff like that. That's why I

636
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 1: like the over half of a round, because it's somewhat

637
00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 1: easy to convince a fighter to take it easy for

638
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 1: two minutes, but once they get going and the adrenaline builds,

639
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: it's hard to maintain that. And then the round two

640
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,560
Speaker 1: prop is just you know, wouldn't it be crazy kind

641
00:31:01,600 --> 00:31:04,200
Speaker 1: of thing? At plus six fifty, Maybe he really is

642
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 1: kind of caring into the second round just to see

643
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: what it's like to go back to the stool in

644
00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: a UFC fight, build some of that experience. This is

645
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 1: a thing that happens like I've been in camps. I've

646
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: been in fights where we're like, you're gonna kill this guy,

647
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:18,040
Speaker 1: we need to get you some experience. Let's, you know,

648
00:31:18,280 --> 00:31:19,800
Speaker 1: let it breathe for a couple of minutes. You're not

649
00:31:19,840 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: in any danger. I could very much see ya Kayev

650
00:31:22,800 --> 00:31:25,200
Speaker 1: and his team thinking that way. You know, he's only

651
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 1: eight zeros a pro. Most of his fights have been quick.

652
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 1: You'd like to get that experience before you're fighting ranked dude.

653
00:31:30,800 --> 00:31:34,040
Speaker 1: So that's my little slight conspiracy theory here, but also

654
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: just the step up in competition.

655
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 2: My final prop is going to come in the fight

656
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 2: between Asthma and Trayshon Gore. I mean, we are calling

657
00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 2: them props, and mostly these are totals which we modify

658
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:47,640
Speaker 2: in to props by the ends inside the distance or

659
00:31:47,680 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 2: he goes the decision, or at least I do. But

660
00:31:50,160 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: this is a fight between two guys who do not

661
00:31:51,840 --> 00:31:54,800
Speaker 2: defend strikes. But Koy have thirty one percent striking defense,

662
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,880
Speaker 2: Trason Gore forty percent striking defense. That is very low,

663
00:32:00,160 --> 00:32:04,360
Speaker 2: like wildly low. You never see striking defense below fifty

664
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 2: and for both to be at forty and thirty as

665
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:09,080
Speaker 2: wild I've also talked about on the pod before. Billy

666
00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:13,720
Speaker 2: usually like the combined striking accuracy and defense tends to

667
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,480
Speaker 2: add up to one hundred. So that means if you're

668
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,840
Speaker 2: defending strikes at thirty percent, you should be standing right

669
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: in front of your opponent and landing seventy percent of

670
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:24,440
Speaker 2: the time. Both land about forty five percent of the time,

671
00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:27,960
Speaker 2: So both coming in with a combined striking accuracy and

672
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 2: defense anywhere between seventy five percent and eighty two percent.

673
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 2: That is horrible. That is, you know, thirty to twenty

674
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,080
Speaker 2: to thirty percent below a average UFC fighter. But as

675
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,200
Speaker 2: a result, I think this is a very low level fight,

676
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: and I think one of these guys is probably going

677
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: to finish the other. Biquay of a huge favorite, though

678
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,000
Speaker 2: I would not get into that line whatsoever. I think

679
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: Gore can absolutely knock him out considering the defensive issues.

680
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: Under one and a half here is plus money. I'll

681
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 2: probably be playing that the ends inside. The distance is

682
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 2: je just north of minus two hundred, I believe, or

683
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 2: at least that's where I have her projected. So Pard

684
00:33:05,720 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: inside the distance, but likely the under one and a

685
00:33:08,280 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 2: half rounds between Koyev and Treyshon Gore. Billy, do you

686
00:33:12,160 --> 00:33:13,560
Speaker 2: have any thoughts on that matchup?

687
00:33:15,040 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think you're on the right track and I

688
00:33:16,880 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 1: agree with you. I just don't know why you don't

689
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: also add Bakoyev to win in there. His stats are

690
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: misleading thest he was. He has a positive striking differential

691
00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,960
Speaker 1: in his first two UFC fights, and then he fought

692
00:33:28,040 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 1: Yusri Bellagrori, who, as we saw last week, is an

693
00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: elite striker who's also like eight feet tall and can

694
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 1: punch you from a million miles away, which Bekoe have

695
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 1: had no answer for. He took one hundred and two

696
00:33:39,800 --> 00:33:41,840
Speaker 1: strikes in that fight. He took twenty six in his

697
00:33:41,920 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 1: other two, so the numbers are skewed by fighting like

698
00:33:44,400 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 1: a literal glory champion kickboxer with a massive reach disadvantage,

699
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 1: where Treyshon Gore he comes by those bad defensive numbers. Honestly,

700
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: he's getting those against everyone. His only wins in the

701
00:33:55,160 --> 00:33:59,280
Speaker 1: UFC are just ridiculous guillotine chokes that should not have

702
00:33:59,360 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: worked against guys who maybe didn't super want to be

703
00:34:01,920 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 1: fighting or at least one that probably didn't want to

704
00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: be there, would rather be out there doing poker tournaments,

705
00:34:07,480 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 1: and he's getting honestly outstruck by like Hudolfo Vieira, a

706
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 1: jiu jitsu guy who more than doubled him up on

707
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 1: strikes with none of them coming on the ground. So

708
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,840
Speaker 1: I think you could take everything you just said and

709
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:23,399
Speaker 1: then also SGP with Beco f to win and you're

710
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 1: getting a little bit extra, a little bit better price

711
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 1: for very very little risk.

712
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,439
Speaker 2: Those are your top props for this weekend's UFC card,

713
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 2: presented by DraftKings. The crown is yours. With that, we're

714
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:36,720
Speaker 2: going to move on to our best and final bets

715
00:34:37,160 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: for this weekend's card, and I'm going to go back

716
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,839
Speaker 2: to the fight between Tabitha Ricci and Verna Jandehoba. This

717
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 2: is my best bet, this is my biggest edge on

718
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 2: the weekends card. I make Ricci about the same price

719
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:50,400
Speaker 2: as I said that I make Melissa Gatto both around

720
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:53,200
Speaker 2: minus one forty. I think betting either up to about

721
00:34:53,200 --> 00:34:56,240
Speaker 2: minus one twenty five is probably fine, and you're getting

722
00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 2: either at a round plus one oh five to plus

723
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,520
Speaker 2: one ten. Ricchie should be able to defend the takedowns,

724
00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,839
Speaker 2: and if she is taken down, I think she will

725
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:08,000
Speaker 2: do everything she can to get back to her feet

726
00:35:08,040 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 2: and she will land the more damaging strikes of the pair.

727
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:14,239
Speaker 2: Just a reminder, Verna is six years older, and I think,

728
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:16,759
Speaker 2: especially in the third round, we've seen Verna slow down

729
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: in other fights, she is going to slow down in

730
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,160
Speaker 2: this one of Ricci's still there. So Ricchi pre fight absolutely,

731
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,839
Speaker 2: Ricchie live. Maybe midway through round two, after round two,

732
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:28,480
Speaker 2: after round one, somewhere in there, I think you're gonna

733
00:35:28,480 --> 00:35:31,479
Speaker 2: see Ricci take over on momentum and start to pull away.

734
00:35:31,560 --> 00:35:34,279
Speaker 2: So maybe after an early takedown from Verna, maybe after

735
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 2: round one that Verona potentially controls, I'd expect Ricchie to

736
00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: come on and to take over this fight. Also show

737
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,160
Speaker 2: an edge on her decision prop as well. But the

738
00:35:42,200 --> 00:35:45,840
Speaker 2: money line is plenty fine at plus one ten, Billy,

739
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:47,319
Speaker 2: I know you're an agreement on that, but you've got

740
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 2: two other fights that you're looking at for my best

741
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 2: and final bet perspective. The first is coming on Haley

742
00:35:54,280 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 2: Cohen against I believe it's the least Pererra Alex Pejera's sister.

743
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 2: She was at Your lucknoon No relation. I'm sorry, I'll

744
00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: just find that in a minute.

745
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:04,799
Speaker 1: Sorry.

746
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,040
Speaker 2: Go on, So she was minus one fifteen of your

747
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 2: luck ratings now out to minus one thirty. Would you

748
00:36:10,000 --> 00:36:12,640
Speaker 2: still better at current prices? And how did you break

749
00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 2: that one down?

750
00:36:13,680 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 1: Okay? So Alex Pejeda has a sister named Aleen with

751
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 1: an N Aileen Pejera is fighting on the MVP card

752
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: on Netflix coming up Alice Peerra. No relation, which is

753
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:29,359
Speaker 1: very confusing because it's just literally one letter off from

754
00:36:29,440 --> 00:36:31,960
Speaker 1: his sister. But yeah, this one is no relation. She

755
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 1: came into the UFC like a direct signee despite only

756
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 1: being I think nineteen years old when she made her

757
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,520
Speaker 1: debut No Contender Series, no Al Smith fighter in that

758
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,359
Speaker 1: UFC really believed in her and she lost a kind

759
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:45,200
Speaker 1: of boring split decision the Monsy Rendo. She was nineteen

760
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,400
Speaker 1: years old, like, we need to keep that in perspective.

761
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: And now she's fighting Haley Cohen, who I've literally bet

762
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,919
Speaker 1: against more times than she has fought, because Hailey Cohen

763
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 1: has pulled out of more fights than she's been in

764
00:36:56,880 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: and I've bet against her every time and I've never

765
00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:01,720
Speaker 1: been wrong. She won a split decision on the Contender

766
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,479
Speaker 1: series is zero to two in the UFC. This fight,

767
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: according to tapology, is literally between the two lowest ranked

768
00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 1: women's bantam weights in the promotion. But one of them

769
00:37:11,840 --> 00:37:14,640
Speaker 1: is the lowest. That's Hailey Cohen and thirty four and

770
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:17,000
Speaker 1: RDO and two in the promotion. The other is the

771
00:37:17,040 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: second lowest. Just turned twenty, got her first UFC check

772
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:24,720
Speaker 1: a few months ago, hopefully is training and theoretically getting better,

773
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: And even if she's not, she probably beats Hailey Cohen,

774
00:37:27,600 --> 00:37:29,479
Speaker 1: even if she's the same fighter she was last time.

775
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 1: But just the amount of improvement we should have seen

776
00:37:32,640 --> 00:37:35,680
Speaker 1: from Perra over the last six months compared to thirty

777
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:38,120
Speaker 1: four year old Hailey Cohen, who's been injured and pulled

778
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 1: out of a ton of fights, they're definitely trending an

779
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: opposite direction. So probably would take her to about minus

780
00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: one fifty. But also, yeah, thanks for the plug in

781
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 1: the luck ratings. She was minus one fifteen and then

782
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:49,120
Speaker 1: when I got it and tracked it in the app.

783
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 2: And your final bed here is going to come when

784
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 2: gear May pot against Thomas Peterson, Brazil against England. You're

785
00:37:57,160 --> 00:37:59,759
Speaker 2: on the Brazil side. Where do you like pot two?

786
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is definitely a final bet. If this were

787
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 1: not in the Apex, this would be my best bet.

788
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 1: Pot is a big, tall, very good athlete who quick strikes. Well.

789
00:38:10,719 --> 00:38:12,760
Speaker 1: I think he's around even money right now. I've minus

790
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 1: one or two in the sheet. I'd probably play him

791
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 1: down to about minus one twenty. Not only is it

792
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: Brazilver's England, it's striker versus grappler, with Brazil playing the

793
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:24,840
Speaker 1: role as striker. Perhaps slightly ironically, they're No, it's Brazilver's America,

794
00:38:24,880 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 1: Peterson's American, right.

795
00:38:26,280 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 2: I don't know why I was thinking Peterson is I'm

796
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 2: confusing him as somebody else. Continue?

797
00:38:30,760 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I just rolled with that. You convinced me

798
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,400
Speaker 1: Edi mind tricked me in the middle of that. Read No,

799
00:38:35,560 --> 00:38:38,840
Speaker 1: Thomas Peterson is from Minnesota, as you would imagine with

800
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: the name like Thomas Peterson in a wrestling background.

801
00:38:43,920 --> 00:38:45,719
Speaker 2: Mick parkin for like no reason whatsoever.

802
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 1: Apologies, Well, I wouldn't say no reason. They're kind of big, average,

803
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:54,319
Speaker 1: sloppy heavyweights. Pot is a much better athlete, tall, can

804
00:38:54,400 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 1: keep the range and just would destroy him if they

805
00:38:57,440 --> 00:39:00,200
Speaker 1: weren't allowed to grapple. Of course they are, which is

806
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 1: why I get a little bit nervous in the apex.

807
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 1: What I saw on the tape about Pot though, he

808
00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,239
Speaker 1: didn't even have to defend a takedown attempt in his

809
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: last fight, not because his opponent didn't want to grapple,

810
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,600
Speaker 1: because he's really good at using over and underhooks to

811
00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: raise the level of his opponent when it gets stuck

812
00:39:14,160 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 1: against the fence. And if Peterson wants to like cage

813
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 1: push take down him, it's not going to be there

814
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,800
Speaker 1: because he uses those long limbs really effectively to anti grapple,

815
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:26,719
Speaker 1: much the way like a prime is he Outasanno or

816
00:39:26,719 --> 00:39:29,240
Speaker 1: even Alex Pejeda has. When you get those guys against

817
00:39:29,280 --> 00:39:31,279
Speaker 1: the fence, they're not trying to push you away, which

818
00:39:31,320 --> 00:39:33,680
Speaker 1: allows you to drop down. They're hooking at least one

819
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:35,880
Speaker 1: of your arms to raise your level up. And the

820
00:39:35,880 --> 00:39:38,280
Speaker 1: way we teach people is you either want their face

821
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,600
Speaker 1: on the floor or their face lifted up. If their

822
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 1: face is at waste level, you're in danger of being

823
00:39:42,480 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 1: taken down. I was impressed at potsibility to do that,

824
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 1: and he's I think I already said this, but a

825
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 1: considerably better athlete. Last thing I should say is Thomas

826
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:57,560
Speaker 1: Peterson fought Dantel Lord Kong Mays in the past and

827
00:39:57,560 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 1: now he's fighting Gierme Pat who is just calm. So

828
00:40:00,760 --> 00:40:03,720
Speaker 1: we're gonna get revenge for the congs from DMA Pat

829
00:40:04,040 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 1: because Thomas Peterson defeated Dantel Lord Kongbays. It's not a

830
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 1: great card, guys. We had to talk about the nicknames

831
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 1: here to splice things up, but found that interesting that

832
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:15,000
Speaker 1: this is the second cong he is facing in his

833
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:16,120
Speaker 1: nascent USC career.

834
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:18,479
Speaker 2: I love that, and with that we managed to cover

835
00:40:18,560 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 2: all thirteen fights on this weekend's card. That'll do it

836
00:40:22,080 --> 00:40:23,919
Speaker 2: for a UFC betting preview. You can find more UFC

837
00:40:23,920 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 2: betting content for both Billy and myself on actionework dot

838
00:40:27,320 --> 00:40:29,359
Speaker 2: com and in the Action work Gap. And if you'd

839
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 2: like to instantly tell some of the best that we

840
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:33,399
Speaker 2: discussed on today's show, look for the quick slip link

841
00:40:33,440 --> 00:40:36,279
Speaker 2: both in the podcast and the video description, or visit

842
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,920
Speaker 2: actionework dot com slash bet now. Don't forget to download

843
00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:41,880
Speaker 2: the free award winning Actionwork Gap and sign up for

844
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:45,719
Speaker 2: Action Pro for immediate access to expert picks at analysis.

845
00:40:45,800 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: Best of luck with our your bets this weekend, enjoy

846
00:40:47,520 --> 00:40:49,520
Speaker 2: the violence. Thank you for listening. We'll see you back

847
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,279
Speaker 2: here next week on the Action Network podcast Is That

848
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:52,840
Speaker 2: Right Around?

849
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:06,839
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

850
00:41:07,280 --> 00:41:10,040
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

851
00:41:10,400 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

852
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:13,840
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