Speaker 1: Check it down, Man Down Thursday morning, May the Beating
Speaker 1: the Book podcast Skill Alexander and as we have tried
Speaker 1: to do now outside of football season, even during football
Speaker 1: season when it applies, talk about every tennis slam. That's
Speaker 1: what we're doing. Uh, and we bring back the crew.
Speaker 1: We tried to bring Brack the crew for this one,
Speaker 1: but part of the crew Dan Weston. Dan texted me
Speaker 1: on what's happened from a cruise ship and when I
Speaker 1: say a cruise ship, I mean the finest cruise ship
Speaker 1: on planet Earth. He was a docked outside of My
Speaker 1: York at the time and he's like, I can't make
Speaker 1: it this one. I'll be back for Wimbledon. But we
Speaker 1: have Drew Dinsick here from the Deep Dive podcast and
Speaker 1: of course the Bet the Edge podcast from NBC Sports,
Speaker 1: the former with with Andy Molitor that he does the
Speaker 1: latter with Sarah Pearlman. It's Drew Dense at Whale Underscore, Kapper,
Speaker 1: How you doing man? Thank you for well, Gil, thank
Speaker 1: you for having me. As always, we get to put
Speaker 1: an exclamation point on what has been an absolutely awesome
Speaker 1: play season so far in Europe with the French Open
Speaker 1: coming up here and Uh, yeah, no, no, no better
Speaker 1: way to kick it off than doing a nice little
Speaker 1: both women's, men's and women's draw preview with with the
Speaker 1: listeners of the megapod. Yeah, we and we hope that
Speaker 1: the draw actually appears before our eyes here momentarily because
Speaker 1: I sort of jumped the gun on our recording time.
Speaker 1: But apparently whatever the as you said, whatever Lifer says,
Speaker 1: get to it whenever they get Yeah, well, we'll have
Speaker 1: ourselves a draw. But we can talk about this broadly.
Speaker 1: You and I have done it on the radio side
Speaker 1: earlier this week, but let's just talk about it broadly,
Speaker 1: and I'll just start by saying, this is, you know,
Speaker 1: unlike with the previous tournaments that we've done this year, uh,
Speaker 1: specifically the Australian Open, this was one we're futures that
Speaker 1: I've made and I'm sure you two I've made them
Speaker 1: long before now. So I just want to apologize right
Speaker 1: in Advanceam. If this is the show you're landing on
Speaker 1: to talk French Open, we already have numbers on Ego
Speaker 1: that are way better than exists now. On the women's side,
Speaker 1: we already have numbers on Carlos Alcoraz that are way
Speaker 1: better than exists now on the men's side. But Drew,
Speaker 1: I'll just start with that question. Let's just start with
Speaker 1: the women's side. Egos Fiatec, who has won one major
Speaker 1: UH French Open famously around these parts. She is getting
Speaker 1: into Stephie Graft Monica Sellis territory. She is either plus
Speaker 1: one hundred or a ticking to minus money now to
Speaker 1: win this tournament, to win her second major. She's won
Speaker 1: twenty eight matches in a row. This is her surface.
Speaker 1: She's one. I want to say it's forty seven out
Speaker 1: of forty eight sets. Don't hold me to that exactly,
Speaker 1: but it's somewhere in the forties. She only dropped one
Speaker 1: set along the way. I believe it was to Mila
Speaker 1: Sampson Nova. I believe was who got her on one set. Uh,
Speaker 1: can you recommend anybody else in an outright? We'll get
Speaker 1: into quarters and we'll get into matches. But is there
Speaker 1: anybody else in an out right you could like legitimately
Speaker 1: recommend to somebody? I mean, we'll find some quarter prices
Speaker 1: for sure, but not to win the tournament now. Um
Speaker 1: I given her current form and her you know, my
Speaker 1: my ratings on IgA, I would make her no worse
Speaker 1: than minus four in any match in any syst you know,
Speaker 1: step of the way, and realistically, UM, in the first
Speaker 1: handful of matches, when she's going up against qualifiers and
Speaker 1: some of the lower ranked players, you know she's going
Speaker 1: to be in the minus two thousand's range for you know,
Speaker 1: match by matching. UM. It's not often you see that
Speaker 1: in best of three tennis because things are a little
Speaker 1: more random as often you see that a women's tennis
Speaker 1: because things are a little bit flatter in general. UM.
Speaker 1: But she is performing at a level that is all
Speaker 1: all universe, and you know, the comp of stephie Groff
Speaker 1: I think is completely fair, especially because two years ago
Speaker 1: EGA completed a dominant performance at Rolling Garrows in the
Speaker 1: fall that you had to go back to and stephie
Speaker 1: Groff to find any comp for UM. And so it's
Speaker 1: not like this is this is not like this is unbelievable.
Speaker 1: Like the Radakanu run last year at the U S
Speaker 1: Open was out of nowhere. And you know, if it
Speaker 1: now feels even more um like was that a fluke?
Speaker 1: The EGA run was not and is now being you know,
Speaker 1: clearly backed up with a number of titles here and
Speaker 1: I guess if you want to take a step back
Speaker 1: a little bit about sort of the strategy of playing
Speaker 1: futures for the UM. You know, for the Slams, you
Speaker 1: can get away with waiting untill the draw for the
Speaker 1: Australian Open, even for the U s Open, because player
Speaker 1: form is huge question marks for both of those tournaments
Speaker 1: for different reasons. Um, huge question mark on the UH
Speaker 1: you know, for the player form at the u US
Speaker 1: Open because players are tired at the end of a
Speaker 1: long season. Huge question about player form for the Australian
Speaker 1: Open because everybody's had a haul off season and some
Speaker 1: players used it to rest and recuperate, others you know,
Speaker 1: sharpening their games. So um, those two tournaments are fine
Speaker 1: to wait on UH and and Wimbledon. You know, the
Speaker 1: grass season is so compact that you don't really need
Speaker 1: to be way out ahead of the market on those
Speaker 1: numbers just because you know that it's it's just a
Speaker 1: it's a blip on the calendar. The clay season is
Speaker 1: the opposite, like you need to be very carefully following
Speaker 1: pricing throughout the Indian Wells really starts to set the
Speaker 1: market for this because the conditions are similar. Because it's
Speaker 1: sort of the um, you know, the beginning of what
Speaker 1: is a concentrated stretch of everybody playing every week with
Speaker 1: high stakes and so um. You know, we're watching Indian
Speaker 1: Wells pretty carefully and you're picking up, you know, signs
Speaker 1: at that time that Ego's form was looking very, very good.
Speaker 1: She came off of a decent, you know, decent oceanic swing,
Speaker 1: decent time in the Middle East, but in an Indian
Speaker 1: Wells she was absolutely ripping um. And it was like, Okay,
Speaker 1: if she's playing this well here and builds on this
Speaker 1: through the spring and an early summer into um into
Speaker 1: Rolling Carrol, she's gonna be tough to be. And of course,
Speaker 1: at that time, who was the market favorite. It was
Speaker 1: not Ego, It was Ash Party. She was at the
Speaker 1: top of the market for most of the month of March.
Speaker 1: And you know, lo and behold, You're sitting at your
Speaker 1: computer one day and the news comes across the ticker
Speaker 1: Ash Party has suddenly retired from the sport of tennis.
Speaker 1: And I think everyone who follows the sport closely who
Speaker 1: was watching him betting Indian Wells did the same thing.
Speaker 1: Run to the book, you know, and and click as
Speaker 1: many times as you could you get to win the
Speaker 1: French Open because that was the two woman race that
Speaker 1: became a one woman race and that Yeah, And honestly,
Speaker 1: like at the time, I think best prices were four
Speaker 1: to one, and uh, I got down what I could
Speaker 1: get down at that time. And I think if that
Speaker 1: hadn't happened, I may even be in a better position
Speaker 1: right now because I kind of I didn't keep adding
Speaker 1: to my my spot. Right, the price moved, it gets shorter,
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at two to ones and I'm like,
Speaker 1: I got four to one in pocket, Why would I
Speaker 1: bet to to one? Right, That's why I didn't continue
Speaker 1: to add to that position. And ultimately now I'm angry
Speaker 1: because it's she's even honest to win this tournament, and
Speaker 1: I'm looking at my before though, like, God, I should
Speaker 1: have more, Like why don't I have more? Like she
Speaker 1: did everything that was asked for her. At Indian Well,
Speaker 1: she was dominant. She packed it up with the title.
Speaker 1: At Miami. I know you had futures on her at
Speaker 1: both of those stages, so you're already you know, flush
Speaker 1: at that point. Um, and then right into clay season,
Speaker 1: she has lost absolutely no step at all. She was
Speaker 1: so dynamic after I think maybe her best torm might
Speaker 1: have been I don't even know it was her best
Speaker 1: torm at Hamburg or Rome. It's tough to say, um,
Speaker 1: but they were both dominant, and after Hamburg, you know,
Speaker 1: on the heels of this huge streak, I'm starting to think, well, okay,
Speaker 1: at this point, I kind of hope she uh, um,
Speaker 1: you know, gets a little bit of a break here.
Speaker 1: It wouldn't be the worst thing if she loses at
Speaker 1: Madrid and gets like a little bit of a week
Speaker 1: to recuperate, rest and recuperate here, because Madrid is a grind,
Speaker 1: you know, Madrid is a tough and she decides, okay,
Speaker 1: they'll take it off for injury. And I think that
Speaker 1: was actually one of the best things she could have
Speaker 1: done from a strategy standpoint, because she came back at
Speaker 1: Rome and was absolutely dynamic. Her game is as advertised
Speaker 1: in terms of perfect for the surface of clay, and um,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean, you know, this is this is
Speaker 1: something we haven't seen since the eighties. Um. She's more
Speaker 1: dominant on this surface than Serena ever was on clay. Um.
Speaker 1: And so it's uh, you know, you have to draw
Speaker 1: compared parallels to the men's tour or that you know
Speaker 1: stephie Graff in the eighties in terms of what we're
Speaker 1: seeing right now, and it's it's cool to be a
Speaker 1: part of. And you know, I had tipped to you
Speaker 1: for being way way ahead of this, uh you know,
Speaker 1: rise from Ego because um, you know, I probably I
Speaker 1: would have doubted it. Honestly, if you didn't have conviction
Speaker 1: back in the day, I would have been like, I
Speaker 1: don't know, is this sustainable. We'll see, um, but you
Speaker 1: can't deny it at this point, she really is the
Speaker 1: best women's tennis player in the world. Then you know,
Speaker 1: there are sometimes when like there are some years when
Speaker 1: Rafa was the clear best and it was not competitive, right,
Speaker 1: and that was more about his greatness, And there is
Speaker 1: a lot of that with EGA. But in my opinion,
Speaker 1: at least the women's field is weaker this year than
Speaker 1: it has been in years past. Would you agree with that?
Speaker 1: And I would agree with that, And and to two
Speaker 1: months ago, three months ago, I would not have agreed
Speaker 1: with that. It just kind of worked out that anyway. Yeah,
Speaker 1: party retiring Hallap who had great clay numbers, right, great
Speaker 1: six month grade, twelve month clay numbers just hasn't looked
Speaker 1: good of late. And then a couple of the players
Speaker 1: who you think may it would give, you know, might
Speaker 1: give Ego trouble. I don't know if some people thought
Speaker 1: Samolanka would she just dispatched her so quickly. I mean,
Speaker 1: we'll get to the question of if I came to
Speaker 1: you from the future and I told you, oh my god,
Speaker 1: Ega lost to somebody, who would that be. We'll get
Speaker 1: to that momentarily, because I do have one or two
Speaker 1: names in mind, just because we're spitballing, but only because
Speaker 1: we're spitballing, right Like, I'm almost forced to ask you
Speaker 1: the question just that to ask something interesting. But as
Speaker 1: far as he is concerned, I mean, honestly, Drew like,
Speaker 1: it's probably my greatest call in any sport ever. Quite frankly, um,
Speaker 1: I mean, let's be honest. This is for those who
Speaker 1: you know miss in the details. This was the bet
Speaker 1: I made famously thirty thirty three to one for the
Speaker 1: for the French open in got paid on everyone but
Speaker 1: the one at the West Gate, which is still depending
Speaker 1: that that was, you know, And since then we've had
Speaker 1: her many times, and I've made a couple of comments
Speaker 1: hyperbolic comments on a numbers game. First and I said
Speaker 1: she's gonna win double digit majors. That was about a
Speaker 1: year ago, because I figured she'd win about eight French
Speaker 1: this should be her second. But then you know recently
Speaker 1: she's won four w T A one thousands this year,
Speaker 1: Like that's just that hasn't happened since I want to
Speaker 1: get this exactly right, four four w T one thousands
Speaker 1: hasn't happened since Serena did in one thousands, being the
Speaker 1: tournament level just just below the Slams. If she wins
Speaker 1: all seven of these matches, she will tie Venus Williams
Speaker 1: streak of thirty five consecutive victories from the year two thousands.
Speaker 1: So what I said earlier this year, as she was
Speaker 1: winning these tournaments and on this street was I think
Speaker 1: she's going to be the greatest women's player of all time,
Speaker 1: which is a out which is an an outlandish comment
Speaker 1: to make right because you have Martina de Rando, Lovan,
Speaker 1: Stephie Groff and Monica Cells. By the way, just from
Speaker 1: a betting market. I give shout out to sports Odds
Speaker 1: History dot com for providing these numbers, but just French
Speaker 1: Open History and here at the I'm at the d
Speaker 1: here at Circus Sports, Ega is even money plus one.
Speaker 1: But as far as like, who has been a pre
Speaker 1: flop favorite at the French Open in modern history as
Speaker 1: a minus number Serena talking about eventual champions Serena minus
Speaker 1: one thirty three, and before that have to go all
Speaker 1: the way back to stephie Groff minus, stephie Graff minus
Speaker 1: and poor Monica Sellis in minus one sixty three whose
Speaker 1: career was forever altered by being stabbed by a fan.
Speaker 1: And so that's the Them's the stratospheres we're dealing with
Speaker 1: right now. That's the stratosphere we're dealing with. Uh. And
Speaker 1: that's the story with Ega, who is the odds on
Speaker 1: favorite here and should be. And what you said minus
Speaker 1: four hundred, you don't have her in less than minus
Speaker 1: four hundred in any match on clay. It is her service.
Speaker 1: She's the women's world number one. I honestly like I
Speaker 1: wanted to I wanted to weep when she became the
Speaker 1: world's number one. It was on the Ash Party retirement.
Speaker 1: But going back to that night that Ash Party retired,
Speaker 1: so I had the same experience you did, Drew. I
Speaker 1: had plus four fifties in my pocket on ego I
Speaker 1: immediately because I was on Primetime Action. You texted me
Speaker 1: literally the minute that that show ended, which is it
Speaker 1: timed out with the into that show. I had no
Speaker 1: idea that to happen, And I was like, what you
Speaker 1: texted me? Daniel already texted me, somebody else texted me,
Speaker 1: anybody who was into tennis texted like, what is happening?
Speaker 1: Because it came out of nowhere, the world number one
Speaker 1: ash Party retiring, although you know, out of nowhere. Ash
Speaker 1: Party had never really embraced playing tennis as other champions have,
Speaker 1: so maybe not completely out of nowhere, but certainly out
Speaker 1: of nowhere at that moment. So I had the same experience.
Speaker 1: I'm like, okay, let me quickly go around looking around
Speaker 1: town and offshore. Are there numbers better than the ones
Speaker 1: that I have or there's still some stray Egan numbers?
Speaker 1: What I found is that there weren't any right. My
Speaker 1: experience was that there was. It was already down to
Speaker 1: three or lower plus three D or lower. And so
Speaker 1: I was like, uh, you know what, I don't know
Speaker 1: if I'm gonna add to it, maybe I'll make a
Speaker 1: decision on this later, which you know was a ridiculous
Speaker 1: thing to think what it did do for me. And
Speaker 1: we'll get to this in a bit. Is I decided
Speaker 1: while I was there checking EGO numbers, I was like,
Speaker 1: let me just see casually what some French open numbers
Speaker 1: are on the men's side. And that was the night
Speaker 1: that I lucked into finding stray numbers on Carlos Alcaraz,
Speaker 1: who was still at eleven to one around town and
Speaker 1: nine to one, and so Ash Barty didn't have me
Speaker 1: adding to EGA. It just accidentally had had me adding
Speaker 1: to Carlos Algorrez, which was incredible, not even adding starting
Speaker 1: at those numbers of Carlos Algarez. But let me just
Speaker 1: ask you the question though about the women's side here
Speaker 1: pre draw. If I came to you and I said,
Speaker 1: drew it happened. IgA didn't win this, she lost. Give
Speaker 1: me the player or players that you believe I'm talking about,
Speaker 1: man from the future. Man, uh, I'll go to go
Speaker 1: down the seeds here. Um, we don't even know if
Speaker 1: Krichica is going to play defend the strike strike striker
Speaker 1: Um Bodoza injured out of form. Striker Um fourth seed
Speaker 1: sacchary Um the last woman to defeat the Agan, clay
Speaker 1: Worth noting in general plays her pretty tough. Um has
Speaker 1: kind of a ceiling when she's on that's high enough
Speaker 1: to go toe to toe with someone who's as good
Speaker 1: as Ego. So sacchary Um would be kind of the
Speaker 1: first name that fifth onst board. No, although let's circle
Speaker 1: back on onst board for um, you know, for some
Speaker 1: other market prices before we wrap this pod um sabuenca
Speaker 1: no way, plashkava, no way. Danielle Collins. Maybe Collins beat her.
Speaker 1: She got Danielle freaking Collins got her, uh somewhat recently, right,
Speaker 1: She pop her at the Australian Open. Is that why
Speaker 1: you didn't win the Australian Open. I remember being surprised
Speaker 1: that you didn't lean now the Aussie frankly just because
Speaker 1: she was in great I thought she was in great
Speaker 1: form at the time. Yeah. I don't remember who beat
Speaker 1: her at the in down Onda, but I think it
Speaker 1: might have been It might have been Collins. It was, yeah,
Speaker 1: Neil Collins got her six four six one weird no
Speaker 1: show from me again that that match. So I guess
Speaker 1: I wouldn't you know, I guess you have to include
Speaker 1: her to some degree just because she's going to have
Speaker 1: the confidence and she's she's a tough She's a tough
Speaker 1: matchup no matter who you are. If the if, if
Speaker 1: the day is right, U Mugar rutha way out of form,
Speaker 1: no chance on clay, Radakanu injured and out of form,
Speaker 1: Osta Penco Osta Penco has played her pretty tough. I
Speaker 1: think that's the third name that you have to put
Speaker 1: in consideration. Even though she has been miserable on clay
Speaker 1: this season. She did get her earlier in I want
Speaker 1: to say Doha, No ego one Doha. It was the
Speaker 1: other one. Dubai. Ostapenko got her in Dubai. Osta Penco
Speaker 1: got her in Indian Wells in fall last year. UM
Speaker 1: So she guests deserves some consideration. Um And then of
Speaker 1: all of the matches that he has played on clay
Speaker 1: this year, the only time that I ever felt like
Speaker 1: she was especially under pressure was up against um Our.
Speaker 1: Canadian Bianca Andreas showed a little bit of form in
Speaker 1: that match in Rome. And so I think that's the
Speaker 1: fourth name. That's the person I would have come with.
Speaker 1: Right again, let me just preface this again by saying
Speaker 1: we are not saying it's going to happen, But I'm
Speaker 1: just fulfilling content purposes just to ask the question if
Speaker 1: it did, who might it be. I actually think on
Speaker 1: Dressco's as good of a choice as any because we
Speaker 1: still don't know what a renewed peak form Bianca could be.
Speaker 1: She's kind of a wild card out there. Yeah, almost certainly.
Speaker 1: I'm going to sit down for every ego match this
Speaker 1: rolling Garrow's run and have and b and be cool
Speaker 1: as a cucumber, no sweat. You know this is gonna
Speaker 1: be fun. Let's see how good she is today if
Speaker 1: there's like a semifinal draw against and ask you, I'm
Speaker 1: going to be a little bit nervous that day, me too. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and On is a little bit andre a little bit
Speaker 1: I think would be a little bit. Yeah. I mean
Speaker 1: her game is, her game is is fun to watch
Speaker 1: and cheer four and it's different, which makes her a
Speaker 1: tough player to match up against. But the fact that
Speaker 1: you get solved that in Rome, I think should be
Speaker 1: should be somewhat of a positive sign for this tournament now,
Speaker 1: as is an amazing form. She ought to probably be
Speaker 1: the second choice in terms of just you know, if
Speaker 1: if there's another woman in this field who can beat
Speaker 1: all the other women considering their current form, it's probably her.
Speaker 1: She probably ought to be the second, you know, second
Speaker 1: choice in the betting market, even though I don't like
Speaker 1: her chances against you get head to head, um, but
Speaker 1: I think her form speaks to a potential awesome run
Speaker 1: on grass. And I've gotten some pretty aggressive positions going
Speaker 1: now for Ans at wimby uh in the thirty rain
Speaker 1: one plus range. So um, that's what it takes this weekend.
Speaker 1: About grabbed on thirty plus two one at Wimbledon. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think, and I think, if I think again, she
Speaker 1: ought to be the clear second choice at Wimbledon after
Speaker 1: in my by by numbers, and she was priced in
Speaker 1: like that kind of third tier range, which doesn't make
Speaker 1: any sense at all because she, you know her her
Speaker 1: grasp elo is best on tour. Right now, I grabbed
Speaker 1: just to let you know again back to the Stephie graph,
Speaker 1: Monica sellis theme I have grabbed since, you know, just
Speaker 1: deciding that this is the player that we always thought
Speaker 1: she would be. Kind of thing I had. I grabbed
Speaker 1: Ega at nine to one at Wimbledon, and I grabbed
Speaker 1: Ega at seven to one at the US Open just
Speaker 1: because I wanted to have them. And you know, is
Speaker 1: are those who you know, she's never won anything on
Speaker 1: grass before, by the way, people right, never hasn't won
Speaker 1: a tournament on grass before. But at this point, is
Speaker 1: there any clay is always going to be one. He
Speaker 1: has shown great prowess on hard courts. Is there any
Speaker 1: reason to believe she's not an all court player at
Speaker 1: this point? No? No, no, no, no no. And I
Speaker 1: think what you saw from her at Indian Wells and
Speaker 1: Miami proves that that she ought to be the the clear,
Speaker 1: clear favorite at the US Open um. And you know,
Speaker 1: just just from my neutral everybody's healthy, everybody's playing their
Speaker 1: best tennis. She's winning that US Open comfortably, in my opinion.
Speaker 1: If there's a realistic chance that she just plays so
Speaker 1: much tennis that she is a little bit more weary,
Speaker 1: a little bit more fatigued than the other women and
Speaker 1: somebody catches her by surprise, that won't be shocking. It's
Speaker 1: usually quite hot in September, and uh, you know, conditions
Speaker 1: are not ideal. If you've kind of been grinding yourself
Speaker 1: to a fine dust throughout the rest of the season,
Speaker 1: you can get caught by surprise. But outside of that
Speaker 1: exact scenario, she's she's getting at least two slams this
Speaker 1: year in my opinion, French Open, in the US Open, um, Wimbledon's,
Speaker 1: Wimbledon's is a mystery to me. You know, we'll see
Speaker 1: how she looks on graph and as you said, it's
Speaker 1: the shortest season of all so the data is as
Speaker 1: scarce as it comes as well. But if she figures
Speaker 1: out a way to win that, then we could be
Speaker 1: talking about an EGA slam possibility income Australian Open next year. Um,
Speaker 1: let's go to the men's side for a second here
Speaker 1: because we wait for the draw. Um. Listen. So this
Speaker 1: is obviously Rafa Nadal's domain for so many years. He's
Speaker 1: won thirteen. Like you just say that in its most
Speaker 1: ridiculous sentence ever has won thirteen French Opens. Pete Sampras
Speaker 1: won fourteen Grand slams at all. Raf has won thirteen
Speaker 1: on clay at Roland Garrows, the red clay of Roland Garrows.
Speaker 1: He's got he's got injuries though, and he's been he
Speaker 1: had a torrid start to this two season. He's developed injuries.
Speaker 1: We saw in and Wells against Taylor Fritz. Now it's
Speaker 1: the foot and so you always have to give Rafa
Speaker 1: some some you know, lip service. Here at the very least,
Speaker 1: he's plus two eighty five. Here at Circus Sports he
Speaker 1: is the third short shot, but Carlos Alcarez is now
Speaker 1: two to one. Carlos Alcarez in his last tournament, of course,
Speaker 1: in Madrid, not only beating Rafa Nadal, but turning right
Speaker 1: around and squeaking by Novak Djokovic, then dispatching Sasha Zverev
Speaker 1: in the finals. He took this past tournament off to
Speaker 1: prepare for Rollo on Arrows. He's two to one. He
Speaker 1: is a tick a tick of an underdog to Novak Djokovic,
Speaker 1: who is the short shot at least here plus one
Speaker 1: eighty five. But essentially it's those two guys at the top,
Speaker 1: Djokovic and Alcarez. Nadal just out of respect and the
Speaker 1: only other player in single digits, with apologies to him
Speaker 1: because I don't think he has a shot to win
Speaker 1: it though he's been playing great. Is Stefano sits a pass.
Speaker 1: Everybody else is double digits, and I mean, like Sasha
Speaker 1: Zverev's the only one that's south of thirty to one.
Speaker 1: In some spots, you know, he's seventeen to one. But
Speaker 1: I mean, realistically, is this Djokovic or Alcarez to Yeah?
Speaker 1: It is um in terms of title yeah the yeah.
Speaker 1: And again kind of going back to sort of how
Speaker 1: do you bet the futures in in n clay, Like
Speaker 1: if you're making bets now, like, best luck to you,
Speaker 1: Like these numbers are pretty these numbers are pretty pretty
Speaker 1: pretty fair, um, And you know, and realistically, like you
Speaker 1: could have still gotten some decent stuff on Djokovic as
Speaker 1: as recently as one week ago. Um, So it's uh,
Speaker 1: it's not impossible to get good prices on these guys
Speaker 1: over the balance of the clay season. But what we've
Speaker 1: seen throughout this clay season was basically a revival of
Speaker 1: Djokovic to a level of Slam champion quality. And it
Speaker 1: was a weird It's been a weirdo for for Novak,
Speaker 1: just put it plately, um And uh, I don't think
Speaker 1: even as recently as month ago, I would have given
Speaker 1: him much consideration here just because he would looked to be,
Speaker 1: you know, more or less. I'm gonna try to get
Speaker 1: in shape and be ready for a Wimbledon title run
Speaker 1: like that. That was the feel you got as you
Speaker 1: saw him out there on clay, just looking like an
Speaker 1: absolute shell of himself. Right, he gets to Belgrade and
Speaker 1: he played his way basically into shape, I thought, in Belgrade,
Speaker 1: ultimately losing to Andre rueb Lev in that final. Um,
Speaker 1: but going through and kind of having some matches where
Speaker 1: he had to dig really really deep to get wins
Speaker 1: against players he should you know, he should have been
Speaker 1: like minus one thousand is favorites against. He had to
Speaker 1: dig deep, Laslow, Jery, Um, you know, kick Manovich, you
Speaker 1: know guys that he has, he is just miles better
Speaker 1: than he really had to dig to beat them. Um.
Speaker 1: The Jerry match was the one where I was like,
Speaker 1: oh boy, just crazy, Yeah, just absolutely crazy. And uh
Speaker 1: we were you know, my friends and I are tennis friends,
Speaker 1: and I joking like, oh, I mean this is Jerry's hometown,
Speaker 1: so he's a tough out. It's like, well, Djokovic's hometown too,
Speaker 1: so you know, whatever it is, what it is, um,
Speaker 1: But yeah, those that those he had three three consecutive
Speaker 1: three set wins in Belgrade, followed by a three set
Speaker 1: loss to Rube Level where he just kind of ran
Speaker 1: out of gas. Finally in the final, but that those
Speaker 1: were the matches, those are the that was the hours
Speaker 1: on court he needed to kind of get himself into shape.
Speaker 1: He comes to Madrid, and I thought his Madrid performances
Speaker 1: were way above expectation, certainly the defeats that you know,
Speaker 1: he he picks on Momfie like he owns them, which is,
Speaker 1: you know, sad for mom feedbackers, but um, you know
Speaker 1: it is what one of the more lopsided head to
Speaker 1: heads in all of tennis history. Um he was excellent
Speaker 1: against her catch in the quarterfinals and then the semifinals,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, was the best match we've seen on
Speaker 1: clay this season, and I think it was by a
Speaker 1: lot actually, um Alcarez versus Djokovic. Al Karez was dealing
Speaker 1: with foot injury from his previous previously had just defeated Nadal.
Speaker 1: Um the I thought the conditions favored Djokovic slightly. We
Speaker 1: saw the market open up with al Krez as a
Speaker 1: meaningful favorite. He was in like the minus one thirty
Speaker 1: range and it got bet to Djokovic minus one thirty.
Speaker 1: So there was an healthy appetite in the betting market
Speaker 1: to support Djokovic. Al Kraz notably one and it was
Speaker 1: a very very thrilling win. Three setter h two tie breaks.
Speaker 1: He lost the first tiebreak, he wins the third tiebreak. Um.
Speaker 1: Djokovic in that saved eight of ten break point opportunities.
Speaker 1: So he basically had that gear he needed every time
Speaker 1: he was asked to, you know, kind of dig deep
Speaker 1: and save something. He did, um and he you know,
Speaker 1: and for what it's worth, Alcroz was playing the best
Speaker 1: tennis on tour at that time, and you know, currently
Speaker 1: his elo would say he's the best player on tour
Speaker 1: right now just based on how he's playing. Um. But
Speaker 1: that was kind of the okay Djokovic's back moment, like
Speaker 1: light bulb goes off, Like okay, if he is coming
Speaker 1: off of that poor of a run of form and
Speaker 1: got and play. You know, Got was able to raise
Speaker 1: his level to this level and go toe to toe
Speaker 1: with Alcrez who's on fire, and then he's going to
Speaker 1: be a tough out at Rolling Garrows. Sure enough, he
Speaker 1: shows up at Rome and just I thought it was masterful.
Speaker 1: He was outstanding, doesn't drop a set, wins the title,
Speaker 1: plays on the way, plays a couple of very very
Speaker 1: lively uh Clay challengers, including Felix Algeri alias sim and
Speaker 1: Caspar Rudin Sispas in the quarterfinal, semifinal final, and basically
Speaker 1: what you know, he did sort of the classic Djokovic thing,
Speaker 1: where as soon as he needed to flip the switch
Speaker 1: to get the win, he did it in all three
Speaker 1: of those matches. It's crazy, it's crazy to see it,
Speaker 1: and you know it when you see it like it's
Speaker 1: it's it's it's characteristic Djokovic. And so now he comes
Speaker 1: into this tournament as the one seed, as the defending champion.
Speaker 1: Nadal will get to in a second, but is you know,
Speaker 1: as as a shell of what he was in years
Speaker 1: past coming into rolling garrows physically um, and he really
Speaker 1: only has to deal with the Alcrez potentially it is
Speaker 1: a head to head and if I'm gonna hold up
Speaker 1: and I'll get your take on Alcres because I know
Speaker 1: you backed him, I have now a stronger position on
Speaker 1: Djokovic than alkrez Um. But the fundamentals are Alcrez has
Speaker 1: only ever played something like ten best of five matches
Speaker 1: in his life. That's not enough experience in my opinion
Speaker 1: to get him to where he should be a favorite
Speaker 1: of origin. I think It also makes him more vulnerable
Speaker 1: to a surprise, Um, you know, surprise somebody, somebody catches
Speaker 1: him by surprise, right, he just there. The best of
Speaker 1: five Tennants is different than best of three the Masters.
Speaker 1: One thousands, where you're playing every day, is different than
Speaker 1: a Slam where you're getting a day off in between
Speaker 1: the Masters. When thousands like the you know, the you
Speaker 1: know the run you know really not not even just
Speaker 1: the Masters, but Barcelona is a good example. Miami is
Speaker 1: a good example where Alcrez was the title winner. Um,
Speaker 1: when you're playing day and it's best of three, you know,
Speaker 1: the younger guys, in my opinion, have an advantage there.
Speaker 1: And it takes um, you know, it takes a little
Speaker 1: bit of experience and a little bit of you know,
Speaker 1: you know, learning how to use your endurance and you know,
Speaker 1: giving away a set if you have to to preserve.
Speaker 1: You know, like there's more strategy, there's more. It's just
Speaker 1: it's almost like a different approach. And we haven't really
Speaker 1: seen al Krez figure that out yet and could he
Speaker 1: figure it out on the fly as a nineteen year
Speaker 1: old in this tournament and win? Of course he's we
Speaker 1: just said he's playing the best tennis of anyone on
Speaker 1: tour right now. And it's awesome to see, um, but
Speaker 1: I personally think you're probably looking at a Djokovic al
Speaker 1: Karez final. Um, we're looking at the draw right now,
Speaker 1: and I saw a couple of names. Land. It looks
Speaker 1: like sisipass is in the third quarter. Uh, it looks
Speaker 1: like Nadal is in a quarter number one? Is he? Yes, Djokovic,
Speaker 1: Nadal all is going to be your quarterfinal and quarter
Speaker 1: number one's Verev Alcarez in quarter to Wait a minute,
Speaker 1: Wait a minute, joke, Djokovic and the doll ended up
Speaker 1: in the same quarter. Oh my god, so the top
Speaker 1: half is completely lopsided. Now wait a minute, allows you draw.
Speaker 1: Djokovic gets Nishioka in the first round, could face Mokan
Speaker 1: in the second. Oh my goodness, Wait a minute, hold on, jokers,
Speaker 1: So what is happening live as we're doing this podcast?
Speaker 1: Hold and run into it. So Djokovic and the doll
Speaker 1: forget the same half of the draw. They ended up
Speaker 1: in the same quarter of the draw. Ye, and then
Speaker 1: al Kraz and Djokovic in the same half, and Alcarez
Speaker 1: and Djokovic and the dollar all in the same half.
Speaker 1: Alcarez its Verev in the same quarter. Yep, so the
Speaker 1: big so the big winner here is Stefano sits As. Yeah. Wow,
Speaker 1: only guy, only guy in the bottom half of the
Speaker 1: draw with with a pulse. That's amazing sing yep. If
Speaker 1: you're the organizers, Oh my god, Drew, this has kind
Speaker 1: of set me back for a loop here. Oh yeah,
Speaker 1: for sure. If you're the organizers of Roland Garrows. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you you rake the draw incorrectly. Have you read the
Speaker 1: droid directly? That's exactly what I wanted to say. I
Speaker 1: was trying to figure out how am I going to
Speaker 1: say the sentence That's exactly what I want to say.
Speaker 1: What are you doing? I don't know. Oh man, I
Speaker 1: mean you're gonna I mean week two of the Roland
Speaker 1: Garrows men's side, it's going to be unbelievable if you
Speaker 1: get that same. So basically the tables were turned where
Speaker 1: um al KaAZ had to defeat uh Nadal, Djokovic and
Speaker 1: Zverev in a row to win Madrid. Now now Djokovic
Speaker 1: is going to have to beat Nadal, Alcarez and Sisipas
Speaker 1: in a row to win Roland Garrows. That's a tough
Speaker 1: that's a tough three leg stretch and have to beat
Speaker 1: Djokovic Alcorrez and sense about yes, so for both of them,
Speaker 1: and yeah, yeah, honestly, the this opens the door. This
Speaker 1: opens the door big time for siss because the scenario
Speaker 1: where he had to get consideration was a scenario where
Speaker 1: Djokovic takes a little damage against it all Djokovic and
Speaker 1: al KaAZ in the semifinals is a five set, five
Speaker 1: hour blood bath and then whoever emerges from that blood
Speaker 1: bath is just absolutely gassed and spent in the final,
Speaker 1: and Sispas can can pick apart that game in the final. Well,
Speaker 1: let me let me ask the money question here, and
Speaker 1: I'm sort of answering it myself right now. Drew joke
Speaker 1: sits a pass in the futures market. So if you
Speaker 1: can find him right now, yeah, I think you gotta
Speaker 1: get him. I think you gotta take a little bit
Speaker 1: of him, don't you. Oh yeah, if you can, And
Speaker 1: if you can find him to make the final, I
Speaker 1: think that's a very fair bet because even like some
Speaker 1: of the even some of the other guys who have
Speaker 1: a pulse on tour right now are all landing in
Speaker 1: the top half. I Felix Gerali has seen landed in
Speaker 1: the top half. Schwartzman's in the top half. We already
Speaker 1: mentioned Verev's in the top half. Um, Taylor Fritz looks
Speaker 1: like he just landed in the top half. Uh. Sisipasa's
Speaker 1: quarter has shop of alov Her catch Tiafo Rude as
Speaker 1: the ranked players, demon Hour as a ranked player. Um,
Speaker 1: he's going to be at minus three d minus former
Speaker 1: favorite against all those guys. This is Tissippasa's quarter. That
Speaker 1: was in his quarter? Yeah, really, the only the only
Speaker 1: clay player in his quarter is Rude. Rude and who
Speaker 1: were the other people? Demon Hour, Tiafo? Um, Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: a it's a pretty weak quarter. Chapavolo, chap of all
Speaker 1: is in this section. Rude is the clay court specialist
Speaker 1: of the bunch. You're right, but but that's not a
Speaker 1: It's not a spectacularly easy draw either, I should say. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, everybody on tour is good, but in best
Speaker 1: of five should be able to be all those guys.
Speaker 1: I mean, he'll at least be a minu he'll be
Speaker 1: a heavy favorite against any of the those guy his
Speaker 1: head to head would you make him against Rude? Really?
Speaker 1: That have you have a favorite against Rude, I'm not
Speaker 1: so sure. Uh, that'll be a tricky one. I don't
Speaker 1: actually have I don't have a match to kind of
Speaker 1: lean on in terms of past history for pricing on
Speaker 1: that one. But I would cispasses that maybe minus two fifty,
Speaker 1: maybe they open it minus one gets to fifty. Um.
Speaker 1: I mean, Rude is a fine player, but he's kind
Speaker 1: of he's kind of the Mendoza line at this point
Speaker 1: of you're you're a top ten or you're not on clay.
Speaker 1: You know, like if you are, you're gonna beat him.
Speaker 1: If you're not, you're gonna lose to him. Yea. His
Speaker 1: clay numbers are elite, right, Like if you look at
Speaker 1: his raw data there, it's tremendous, but it just doesn't
Speaker 1: manifest in reality that way. Yeah, his his most impressive
Speaker 1: win on clay. It's been a while, right since he
Speaker 1: had like one where you were like, wow, I cannot
Speaker 1: believe he beat that guy. Um, it's been a while.
Speaker 1: He's he's mostly just picking on the guys who are
Speaker 1: a clear here below him. From what I can tell you, Uh,
Speaker 1: rihards getting it done for me in Geneva right now, Drew,
Speaker 1: He's having a nice little renaissance. Good by him. Yeah,
Speaker 1: um that is so that's that's the big news of
Speaker 1: this podcast right there as we're doing it. That the
Speaker 1: fact that Stephanos sits up Us managed to get half
Speaker 1: a draw without any of the three guys in front
Speaker 1: of him and without the guy behind him in Sasha's vera.
Speaker 1: That's unbelievable. Yeah. So basically to get to the finals,
Speaker 1: Sipas's path out of his quarter is Chapa alav rude
Speaker 1: and then Rublev in the semis. Yeah, what's that quarter?
Speaker 1: We haven't mentioned rube Lev's quarter like whole it's the
Speaker 1: Medvedev quarters now, so it's the rube Lev quarter now. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but you know that path of uh, you know of
Speaker 1: Chapa alav rude um ruby Lev to get to the final,
Speaker 1: he is very very very winnable for him, uh and
Speaker 1: he can get through that without expending much juice then
Speaker 1: and the other side is just a blood bath, and
Speaker 1: he actually has a pulse to win this title. I am,
Speaker 1: legitimately when we're done with this podcast, turning around to
Speaker 1: this desk behind me, because if I have yeah, because
Speaker 1: if I have my Alcorrez tickets on one side, I'm
Speaker 1: legitimately now I would play for an Alcorez tits APAs
Speaker 1: final and just sit back and enjoy. Yeah, oh yeah,
Speaker 1: absolutely absolutely, and that's not crazy. Um what would you
Speaker 1: make what would you make sits a pass? And we
Speaker 1: don't we don't see quarter prices yet, but what would
Speaker 1: you make him in that quarter? Oh? Min? Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: gonna be a free, favorable price. You're gonna get plus
Speaker 1: money on to get him to the final, which would
Speaker 1: be nice. Um. That's because again, if Alkaz is who
Speaker 1: we think he is, and he does defeat Djokovic in
Speaker 1: that semifinal, um, even if it is a is a
Speaker 1: gold blood bath, he gets a data rest and recuperate,
Speaker 1: and he is a much better player than Sisippus, much better,
Speaker 1: And yes he should win that match, even with even
Speaker 1: being a little gassed. In the head to heads we've
Speaker 1: seen between Cispas and Alcraz this season, they've been lopsided,
Speaker 1: big time lopsided. Um, we saw, Yeah, there's really it's
Speaker 1: it's not a it's not a great it's a matchup
Speaker 1: for him first us always kills me. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you ever get this impression. This has nothing to
Speaker 1: do with tennis data or anything. But you ever watch
Speaker 1: it Sits Apass match and you just walk watch him
Speaker 1: in between points, and how unathletic his gate is. Have
Speaker 1: you ever noticed that about one of his like his
Speaker 1: even when he walks, he just feels like he's not athlete.
Speaker 1: Obviously he's one of the elite players in the world.
Speaker 1: But uh, yeah, I don't fear him if it was
Speaker 1: an Alcoriz Sits Apass match, I don't fear that. You know,
Speaker 1: no cisspass is uh. The two characteristics that in between
Speaker 1: points I always noticed he's always staring at his dad
Speaker 1: looking for tips episode. That's one thing. And and he's
Speaker 1: got a very membo quality to him in the interviews
Speaker 1: and what he says it's, uh, he's he's not, He's not.
Speaker 1: He doesn't present himself as one of the sharper tools
Speaker 1: in the ship. So I really think I'm gonna get
Speaker 1: some sits about insurance right after this. Um So, let
Speaker 1: let me ask the same question now that we see
Speaker 1: the draw. Let me let me just ask the same
Speaker 1: random question that I asked on the women's side. If
Speaker 1: I came to you and I said, this is just
Speaker 1: a ridiculous question, But if I came here and I said, hey, man, Djokovic, Nadal, Alcarez,
Speaker 1: sits apass. I guess I'll throw in Zverev to make
Speaker 1: this an interesting question. None of them want it. Who
Speaker 1: won this? I mean, if that's the set up, something
Speaker 1: absolutely insane happened, something absolutely insane happened. Uh, you're so
Speaker 1: you're setting up basically like I get wiped out this tournament. Dude,
Speaker 1: you too, Okay, so if that happens, it's it's scam Nori.
Speaker 1: Whence his first ever Slam? And I'm just I'm sobbing
Speaker 1: into my into my, my, my, my ripped up tickets.
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean I mean realistic, Yeah, realistically ruby
Speaker 1: Lev has the quality that he should be at least
Speaker 1: in consideration for a slam. H And again he has
Speaker 1: a very very easy draw. Uma found somehow found his
Speaker 1: old form. That would be cool story, that would be
Speaker 1: cool from a story wise. But do you know how
Speaker 1: many matches he's lost in a row? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: I think he's on the twelve twelve straight losses. You
Speaker 1: know how hard that is. You have enough of have
Speaker 1: enough of a ranking point, but still get into every
Speaker 1: uh you know, every tournament and losing round one. It's hard.
Speaker 1: It's hard, it's a accomplish. I love. How true when
Speaker 1: we do international tournaments, how we start to have European characteristics?
Speaker 1: I yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah yeah, idoos almost do I
Speaker 1: believe correctly for this? Yeah, there you go. Okay, So,
Speaker 1: and I don't know how many first round matches you're
Speaker 1: saying here. I haven't crunched the numbers. Obviously, the drawers
Speaker 1: are coming out right now. But so I don't have
Speaker 1: any first round plays quite yet. I don't know if
Speaker 1: anything catches your eye upon a glance now, nothing, nothing
Speaker 1: in general. I'll get those out on the numbers game daily. Yeah.
Speaker 1: The handful of guys who are kind of in them
Speaker 1: in the lower rankings and or unseated who I you know,
Speaker 1: it was fired up for um. I haven't seen them
Speaker 1: getting well placed yet anything women's draw yet or not out.
Speaker 1: Not that it's going to be an interesting they're they're react.
Speaker 1: They're getting a live reaction from Djokovic. He's wearing like
Speaker 1: the same offic as me. Weird not did not coordinate that. Um,
Speaker 1: they're getting a live reaction on Djokovic for getting utterly
Speaker 1: screwed by the drawly utterally screwed. Yeah, I can't imagin
Speaker 1: I can't even imagine what he's saying, But I doubt
Speaker 1: he's happy by about this. The idea of of Nadal
Speaker 1: and alcaz back to back to get to the final
Speaker 1: is about as bad as things could have gone for
Speaker 1: him today. I I went from you know, me, thinking, what,
Speaker 1: we scheduled this podcast too early for the draw too?
Speaker 1: We timed this perfectly. Yeah, for sure that nothing else
Speaker 1: that we can say is as important as that. That's
Speaker 1: that's a criminal draw, dude, that is criminal. Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: almost thinking I'm inclined to take a quick look at
Speaker 1: what's going on with the exchanges to see if there's
Speaker 1: been any reaction to the pricing on him, because there
Speaker 1: ought to be. Like he was what plus one eighty
Speaker 1: plus one sixty around town before this draw. He should
Speaker 1: be plus two fifty now. Um. I mean this, this
Speaker 1: should have just absolutely flattened the top four pricing. Um.
Speaker 1: And I guess let's give Nadal a little bit of
Speaker 1: time here because I don't have a ton more to
Speaker 1: to really reflect on this. His path to UM up
Speaker 1: to the uh potential quarterfinal match against Djokovic is fine,
Speaker 1: Like He's going to be fine, assuming his foot is
Speaker 1: is right. UM. And I think if you were to
Speaker 1: tell me like there was a wild upset and he
Speaker 1: doesn't get there, and I think it's much more likely
Speaker 1: that he injured his foot so badly that he has
Speaker 1: to withdraw at some point. I think that's that's a
Speaker 1: walkover is a lot more likely than him getting upset
Speaker 1: before they get to the quarterfinal against Djokovic. UM. But
Speaker 1: it is worth pointing out that he had an incredible
Speaker 1: run through Australia. He did the impossible coming back seven
Speaker 1: that final UM to win that title. It was it
Speaker 1: was that was a wildly unexpected outcome, um. And he
Speaker 1: carried that form through until he got injured in Indian
Speaker 1: Wells and that in that match against Alkrez, which was
Speaker 1: the best hardcore match that we saw outside of the
Speaker 1: open um. His foot injury that he's sustained and exacerbated
Speaker 1: it and him against chap of Allo looked very serious
Speaker 1: to me. UM. That was that was that was not good. Uh.
Speaker 1: And I think realistically, UM, you know, he needs he's
Speaker 1: a player that needs a strong build up. UH. He
Speaker 1: needs kind of the mental edge over all the other
Speaker 1: players on tour and he didn't get anywhere close to
Speaker 1: that in this run up here because of the injuries
Speaker 1: he's sustained early out in Madrid, to al Kraz, early
Speaker 1: out in romp to to um chap of all of
Speaker 1: and I think realistically, you know, if he does something
Speaker 1: amazing here, especially considering the straw, this will be the
Speaker 1: more impressive of his titles, without question, without questions, it
Speaker 1: would be Drew. I appreciate it. Man, this was fun.
Speaker 1: There's no one I'd rather have shared that moment where
Speaker 1: we're just like flabbergasted by what we just saw. That
Speaker 1: is brutal, but betting opportunity on Stefano's tissapas out of nowhere.
Speaker 1: You know, at A don't anything to add on either
Speaker 1: women's or men's side. Well, we'll do the individual picks
Speaker 1: on a daily basis, Yeah, for sure. So the the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter is the most wide open if you want
Speaker 1: to take a long shot. On the men's side, that's
Speaker 1: the Medvedev quarter. Medvedev is just absolutely wildly out of form,
Speaker 1: and he's bad on clay and a on a good year,
Speaker 1: Um Miramar Kikmanovich and landed in that quarter. Um, he's
Speaker 1: not he's not if he wins that fourth quarter will
Speaker 1: not be shocking. He probably ought to be the third
Speaker 1: price there or second maybe second price there after. Rube
Speaker 1: lov Um, I'll probably have a little bit of that
Speaker 1: in my pocket. I need to break down what that.
Speaker 1: That's probably your quarterfinal rube Le Versus Kikmanovich and fabulous, Yeah,
Speaker 1: anybody else like I guess so the women's draws coming
Speaker 1: out right now if you want to hang and comment
Speaker 1: on this, but just give you some other names in
Speaker 1: the rube Lev, Medvedev, Kikmanovich du quarter. Yeah, let's here
Speaker 1: so again because Medvedev is the two seed and you know,
Speaker 1: and you know he's he's a wonderful player on hard
Speaker 1: and you're defending US Open champion, like all that is true. Um,
Speaker 1: just took him down. I know it's not the same
Speaker 1: clay surface, but I mean he just destroyed him on clay.
Speaker 1: Yeah it was. It wasn't that And that was that
Speaker 1: was one of those where you see him entering that
Speaker 1: tournament and you think to yourself, Okay, he really he
Speaker 1: needs the reps on clay, you know, and if he's
Speaker 1: gonna even win a couple of matches and rolling garrows,
Speaker 1: he needs to go far in this tournament, and he
Speaker 1: was out right out of the gate. He was done. Um,
Speaker 1: so that was that was wildly disappointing from him. Um
Speaker 1: let me let me pull up the full draw right now,
Speaker 1: like all the all the websites. You're boring a little bit,
Speaker 1: a little bit slow. This was happening, by the way,
Speaker 1: live while we're doing this podcast. And it's so funny
Speaker 1: reading the comments where some people are like, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: need you guys not to do this in French, you know,
Speaker 1: people like that's so funny, a little less French, but
Speaker 1: it is. This guy said, um, yeah, this is so great.
Speaker 1: All right, So Clara Towson by the way, late withdrawal
Speaker 1: from the French Open on the ladies side. Just do
Speaker 1: I like her game? I do too. She'll be great
Speaker 1: one day. Did you before we see the women's draw,
Speaker 1: were there any kind of like super long like like
Speaker 1: the jail Tykemans of the world, the and Amanda and
Speaker 1: a Samovas of the world. Who you think, um, you know,
Speaker 1: given the right quarter, could make a run to the semifinals.
Speaker 1: So it's a good question. And I do think you
Speaker 1: hit on the name right there. Amanda, and this Samova
Speaker 1: would be one of those Amna, this Simova who had
Speaker 1: so much you know, one of the one of the
Speaker 1: great American young players with so much potential. People may
Speaker 1: recall that she got pretty deep. I want to say,
Speaker 1: into a semi final and roll on Garrols a few
Speaker 1: years back, and then uh, it was up a set
Speaker 1: in a break, I want to say on Simona Alip
Speaker 1: before Hallip came storming back. I don't think Amanda was
Speaker 1: ready at that time. UM, don't hold me to the
Speaker 1: to the semi or to the doubt up a breaking,
Speaker 1: up a set in a break, but it was a
Speaker 1: deep run. I think I might be right on both
Speaker 1: of those details. But she her clay numbers are great.
Speaker 1: She has had a fine hardcore season as well. She's
Speaker 1: not gonna win this tournament. But yes, if she's in
Speaker 1: the right quarter that that would be a name to
Speaker 1: look at. I'm just sort of scanning. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: Belenda Benchitch has her moments. Let's put it this way.
Speaker 1: No on Serena for anybody. Um, if people are thinking
Speaker 1: about Coco Golf, I would just sort of say the
Speaker 1: jury is still out on Coco Golf. Naomi Osaka is
Speaker 1: going to be a name that people are gonna think of,
Speaker 1: who are casual tennis fans. This is not her surface.
Speaker 1: She landed unseated in the third quarter. By the way,
Speaker 1: I don't in there. Who did Ega end up having
Speaker 1: in her quarter? Well, we were there. They're still going through.
Speaker 1: They're doing this funny where they're putting all the unseated
Speaker 1: players first and they're drawing drawn out of the pot
Speaker 1: to put the seeded players in there. So we don't
Speaker 1: know yet, but yeah, no, I think got to close
Speaker 1: the loop on a couple of I got. I got
Speaker 1: all the draws in front of me for the men's
Speaker 1: side right now. So in the fourth quarter, this is
Speaker 1: the weakest Medvedev is your top seeds, Your second seed
Speaker 1: is ruby Lev. The other seeded players Jonnick Center, Pablo Kareno, Boosta, Kickmanovitch,
Speaker 1: chili As Leshvilly, and Tommy Paul Um and then outside
Speaker 1: of your seeded players, there's really no one who scares
Speaker 1: you Um. So I think that realistically kick Monovich will
Speaker 1: probably be priced behind at least behind Center and ruby Lev,
Speaker 1: maybe behind Kernio Boosta, So you might get like a
Speaker 1: five to one, six to one price on Kikmanovitch to
Speaker 1: win that quarter, which would be a ton of fun.
Speaker 1: A lot of these Spanish players of clay have been
Speaker 1: a little disappointing of late. Oh yeah, for sure. And uh,
Speaker 1: I think, you know a lot of them they're trying,
Speaker 1: they try to round out their game. Krania Boost is
Speaker 1: a great example. He's probably better at this point on
Speaker 1: a slow hardcourt than he is on clay, just by
Speaker 1: the way he's shaped his game. But I think a
Speaker 1: lot of them are kind of taking that path because
Speaker 1: they recognize how many you know, you can win a
Speaker 1: lot of money and a lot of points on tour
Speaker 1: and the indoor hardcourt swing. Uh and you know, on
Speaker 1: some of this because they've slowed down the hardcourt's overall
Speaker 1: on tour to the tune of you know, it's it's
Speaker 1: to your advantage not to be a quote unquote clay specialist. Um,
Speaker 1: there's the third quarters before you continue your This is
Speaker 1: for the second year in a row. This is from
Speaker 1: David Smith. For the second year in a row, the
Speaker 1: French Open Men's Tournament is determined to have a completely
Speaker 1: epic set of quarters and semis and an absolute anticlimax
Speaker 1: of a final that's very true, and he said, I
Speaker 1: feel like second year or a third year in row.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's been a couple of there've been a couple
Speaker 1: of years now where we've had had these sort of
Speaker 1: setups and letdowns. Yeah, Egotriotec. By the way, we'll begin
Speaker 1: her French Open, obviously against the qualifier, but then in
Speaker 1: the second round it will either be Allison Risk or
Speaker 1: Diana Yastremska, which means will be moving on. I like it. Um.
Speaker 1: The Cispass quarter we mentioned has chapavolav Her catch Rude.
Speaker 1: Those are your three top seated players outside of Sinspass.
Speaker 1: All of those guys I think would be you know,
Speaker 1: Rude maybe the closest in terms of a price. Rud's
Speaker 1: only ever beaten Cisspass once on clay, and it was
Speaker 1: at Madrid last year when Cispass was in quite good
Speaker 1: form but really didn't have didn't care to try to
Speaker 1: with he know he was coming off of two straight
Speaker 1: titles and so he just sort of took Madrid off
Speaker 1: in my opinion, So I wouldn't lean too much into
Speaker 1: that head to head result um, and I think realistically
Speaker 1: he probably goes off as a minus two and her
Speaker 1: favorite at worst case scenario against all of those players.
Speaker 1: So sisspass coming out of his quarter third quarters a
Speaker 1: very fair bet. Um, and then uh yeah we mentioned
Speaker 1: uh the second quarter is the second quarter is the
Speaker 1: quarter of death overall in my opinion, Um, a lot
Speaker 1: of tough challenger along with alca As and Zverev. Um.
Speaker 1: So sorry, guys who quarter uh quarts in their H
Speaker 1: team is in there for what it's worth, Um scam Nori, Taylor, Fritz, Isner, Davidovich, Folkina,
Speaker 1: Nakashima basically a lot of Sebastian bias and Sebastian bias
Speaker 1: or are tricky players on clay. Yeah, one of those
Speaker 1: two guys to get like in the to the fourth round,
Speaker 1: he's gonna have to face either he's gonna Zara. Zvera's
Speaker 1: path is the toughest of anyone as far as I
Speaker 1: can tell you. His round two opponent would be by As,
Speaker 1: his round three opponent would be either Nakashima or Davidovich Folquina,
Speaker 1: his round four opponent opponent likely Taylor Fritz and then
Speaker 1: round you know, to get to the court to get
Speaker 1: the quarterfinal opponent al Krez. Like, that's a that's an
Speaker 1: absolutely brutal draw, you can basically tear up any kind
Speaker 1: of hope for a Zvera French Open at this point. So, um,
Speaker 1: presumably if he's if he's that unimpressive, if if if
Speaker 1: you really can't do much and is an early out here,
Speaker 1: you might be able to get a favorable price for
Speaker 1: zav at Wimbledon, because I think that's maybe a more
Speaker 1: favorable surface for him at this point in terms of
Speaker 1: what is his skill, uh, you know his his um.
Speaker 1: Maria Sachary ends up on the bottom half of the
Speaker 1: draw on Jabor at bottom half of the draw. Um
Speaker 1: her Chekova was placed on the bottom half of the draw,
Speaker 1: and we don't know if well she'll play at contiv
Speaker 1: it on the bottom half of the draw. So those three,
Speaker 1: those four bottom half of the tops number one season
Speaker 1: she's top her. The next seated player in her section
Speaker 1: Carolina Plishkova. That's not scary. H. Jessica Paboula ended in
Speaker 1: her quarter, not scary. UM. Second quarter has Paula Badosa,
Speaker 1: Danielle Collins Sablanca. UM. So presumably a potential semifinal matchup
Speaker 1: against Daniel Collins, which would be interesting. Um. Again, none
Speaker 1: of these players really straight, you're at all into Aniga
Speaker 1: backers hired. So this is is it? Joe Trippy just
Speaker 1: looking again? So again the men's you know, men's quarterfinal,
Speaker 1: if if seating held, Djokovic, Nadal, Zverev, Alcarez, Rude Tisipas,
Speaker 1: Ruby Lev, Medvedev, My goodness, they did give. They did
Speaker 1: stick Yolana Ostapenko in uh in the first quarter. She
Speaker 1: would be EGA's round four opponents. If she gets there,
Speaker 1: that would be the one that would make us look up. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: at least at least you take you pause a little
Speaker 1: bit before that match. That's but here's what you were
Speaker 1: just mentioning the draw of of Zverev. So the Alcarez
Speaker 1: projected draw quality followed by a Coconakus Ramo Savignoles winner,
Speaker 1: which you know he should be able to dispatch. But
Speaker 1: both of those guys are you know, they have it
Speaker 1: in him. Harris Millman in round three probably catch it
Speaker 1: off Ori and team in round four, Fritz er z Verev.
Speaker 1: We got about Taylor, Fritz, he's in there too in
Speaker 1: the quarters. And then Djokovitch, Nadal, Semis, Titsibas, Rudeman ever
Speaker 1: went one of those guys in the finals. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean these are fascinating. Look at now how it landed
Speaker 1: in the first quarter. She will face potentially Ostapenko in
Speaker 1: round three before facing Ego in round four. That's brilliant
Speaker 1: for Yougo how can take dispatch Osta Pinko if she
Speaker 1: gets there and then losing, losing and then losing straights,
Speaker 1: That's that's that's ideal. That is good. How about how
Speaker 1: about Naomi Osaki? You said it was unseated. Who's in
Speaker 1: the third quarter? Uh, they're going so fast, I can't
Speaker 1: tell you. We're literally doing this podcast on the fly
Speaker 1: here as these are coming out. Yeah, Osaka, you know,
Speaker 1: as an unseated player will play a seated player, So
Speaker 1: I'm curious which seated player will have that draw. Chill
Speaker 1: Tychman ended up in the fourth quarter. She's shown some
Speaker 1: decent quality of this spring. Jill Tykeman is always a
Speaker 1: It's always a tricky one if you're if you're the
Speaker 1: organizers of this tournament. True. Getting back at Ben's draw,
Speaker 1: is there a little party right now? That's like, what
Speaker 1: have we done? Can we do this again? What have
Speaker 1: we done? Yeah? A little bit for sure. Um Samsonova
Speaker 1: was the the other seated player and Ega section the
Speaker 1: only player to have taken a set off of Vega
Speaker 1: in the last sets. I believe it is forty six
Speaker 1: is giving you a little bit of drama here. Anna
Speaker 1: Samova ended up in the third section. She will play
Speaker 1: Naomi Osaka in round one. There it is now that
Speaker 1: here's the thing, if if if if if A Nissimova's
Speaker 1: number is muted in any way, that's a first round play. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we've seen them playing round one of the tournament this season,
Speaker 1: and I'm misremembering. I don't remember like they've played. They
Speaker 1: went head to head. I feel like at the maybe
Speaker 1: Indian Wells round one, Uh maybe maybe not. You don't
Speaker 1: how many tennis matches. I'm so it all kind of
Speaker 1: runs together. They did not play. They played in in
Speaker 1: round of thirty two at the Australian Open. Anasmova beat
Speaker 1: Osaka in a in a third set breaker. She got her.
Speaker 1: I'm curious what the number will be on that match
Speaker 1: because A Nissimova is much more clay form ready right
Speaker 1: now for that match by a mile, right, I mean yeah,
Speaker 1: Osaka's doesn't even really seem to be focused on tennis
Speaker 1: right now. She's starting her own uh her own sports agency.
Speaker 1: She's got interest all over the place. She may be
Speaker 1: just here for the sponsor check for all I can
Speaker 1: tell you, but the uh yeah her. She was ousted
Speaker 1: in Madrid pretty comfortably by Sarah sor Serebas Tormo Tormo.
Speaker 1: Where did she those? By the way, Seiba's Tormo and
Speaker 1: uh Sorio Serrano who for whatever reason, I remember them
Speaker 1: as a duo all the time. Those are some pesky
Speaker 1: players too. But yeah, didn't didn't end up seeing them
Speaker 1: in anything anywhere of importance. Um, so it should be
Speaker 1: in pretty good shape there. Yeah, good, good, good, overall
Speaker 1: good deal. I think a very positive, positive draw for EGO. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm feeling I didn't see. Yeah, I didn't see anybody
Speaker 1: really stand out in terms of like, oh that's a
Speaker 1: week quarter, that's a value play, that's a you're going
Speaker 1: to catch a good price on anyone in the women's
Speaker 1: draw as of yet. Um, but I need to do
Speaker 1: a little bit more studying here. Um. I guess Andrew
Speaker 1: Asque would be the one name I didn't see readily,
Speaker 1: and I'm curious where she landed. Um But yeah, Osaka
Speaker 1: anism of around one is a great, great headliner. I
Speaker 1: think you're going to see Anna Simova go off minus one.
Speaker 1: There would be my guess. I would hope, I'm hoping
Speaker 1: for lower than that, and then I would pound in this.
Speaker 1: Maybe she opens around pick Oh, I love that? Oh
Speaker 1: my god, are you kidding me? Well, I'll tell you what.
Speaker 1: So you're not You're not available Tuesday, Drew, But we'll
Speaker 1: try to get you on another time for some roll
Speaker 1: on arrows picks on the radio side this week. Yeah,
Speaker 1: for sure, at least week two, if not at some
Speaker 1: point in week one. There you go, let's do it.
Speaker 1: Drew Dinsick from the obviously Twitter at Whale Underscore Capital,
Speaker 1: but from the NBC Sports at the Edge podcast, which
Speaker 1: he does with Sarah Perlman, and of course the Deep
Speaker 1: Dive podcast Did's a Classic, which he does with Andy Molitor.
Speaker 1: Great listens the both of them. Drew, It's awesome to
Speaker 1: talk to tennis with you all the time, man, And
Speaker 1: uh oh yeah, oh something else just happened. I thought
Speaker 1: you said something. No, no, live, just it's very cool
Speaker 1: doing live reactions to the draws awesome, always fun, alright, man,
Speaker 1: and hopefully people enjoyed it. I appreciate it. Thank you
Speaker 1: so much, Drew Dinsick, everybody. It's not over till you
Speaker 1: say best of luck to everyone, Drew. That's how we
Speaker 1: end this best of luck, Yes, of course, best of
Speaker 1: luck this fortnite. That's the way it was saying fortnight.
Speaker 1: That's right. We don't know the word for fortnite in French,
Speaker 1: but we would say it otherwise. Thank you all for listening.
Speaker 1: Good Luck again Picks daily on the radio side. Good
Speaker 1: luck with all your outrights the French Open. Thanks for listing.