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Speaker 1: my guest today is a man who's quite literally been

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Speaker 1: in the room where it happens on and off for

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Speaker 1: over three decades of American economic He is the only

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Speaker 1: person to serve as a director of the National Economic

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Speaker 1: Council under two different presidents, Bill Clint and Barack Obama,

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Speaker 1: and most recently served as the White House coordinator for

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Speaker 1: the American Rescue Plan for President Biden. I'll ask him

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Speaker 1: what he did as a child staffer for Jimmy Carter's presidency.

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Speaker 1: So she's worked for every Democratic presidency in my adult lifetime.

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Speaker 1: It is Gene Sperling, and what I have him on

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Speaker 1: today is actually he's got a new gig these days.

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Speaker 1: He's the founder and executive director of what is dubbed

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Speaker 1: the Economic Dignity Lab at Georgetown's McCourt School of Public Policy. Look,

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Speaker 1: Gene is a think tanker who's actually been a practical

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Speaker 1: government's servant as well. Sometimes you get your think tankers

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Speaker 1: who throw out white papers and ideas, and you get

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Speaker 1: your government servants who take those white paper and ideas well.

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Speaker 1: Jean's kind of been on both sides of it and

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Speaker 1: is one of the few people I know that while

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Speaker 1: he's wonky, he also understands campaign politics and that is

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Speaker 1: a unique breed of individual because it's not an easy

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Speaker 1: thing to find. And you know, he's got the quirky

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Speaker 1: sense of humor like I like I do, and like

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Speaker 1: I like. So, mister Sperlin, good to see.

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Speaker 2: You, Thank you, Chack, thanks for having me.

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Speaker 1: In fact, I have to say I didn't know this story.

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Speaker 1: I was asking this. You know, why he's coming to

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Speaker 1: us from California and I'm here going I just think

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Speaker 1: of Gene as a d c's DC guy, and I'm

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Speaker 1: going to make you quickly tell this just the shortened

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Speaker 1: version of the story. You're an Angelino because of a

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Speaker 1: fun little Hollywood meets politics meets real life meets your

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Speaker 1: personal life. Tell us about it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well, you you know, you could have said I've

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Speaker 2: worked for four presidents, because I had four years where

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Speaker 2: I was a consultant or part time writer for Jed Bartlett,

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Speaker 2: the president on the NBC TV show The West Wing.

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Speaker 2: But yes, the fact I'm coming from you in Santa

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Speaker 2: Monica or that seems to be my main residence right now,

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Speaker 2: does not feel comfortable to me. I grew up in

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Speaker 2: ann Arbor, Michigan. We only came to La twice in

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Speaker 2: my youth, and both times was to watch Michigan lose

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Speaker 2: to Southern cal in the road. And so when people

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Speaker 2: ask me where I'm from, it's ann Arbor. When they

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Speaker 2: ask me where I've worked, it's Washington, d C. So

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Speaker 2: it's very hard for me to kind of acknowledge that

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Speaker 2: I just happened to be here. But the story was

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Speaker 2: is that when I got done with Clinton, I'd gotten

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Speaker 2: to know some of the people on the TV show

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Speaker 2: West Wing. I really dug in. I worked on a

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Speaker 2: really good story and I sent it in and they

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Speaker 2: asked me to do an interview. I went out to

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Speaker 2: LA and it just happened to be Hey, where Aaron

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Speaker 2: Sorkin couldn't meet with me because he had a little

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Speaker 2: legal trouble in an airport. But they set up a

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Speaker 2: meeting for me with all the writers in the commissary.

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Speaker 2: It's very exciting. You walk in. There's guys from Er

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Speaker 2: walking around.

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Speaker 1: Now it is the old The studio commissaries truly are

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Speaker 1: Star Wars bar scenes. You never know who you're gonna

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Speaker 1: run into.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, just going through at the beginning, through the gate,

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Speaker 2: you think of blazing saddles and them crashing through. So

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Speaker 2: I go there. I introduced myself. First person on the

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Speaker 2: left is name Alison Abner. She's just starting her second

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Speaker 2: year writing for the West Wing, and I say hello,

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Speaker 2: and what the heck? We got married. We've been together

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Speaker 2: twenty five years, so I've been you know, I've been

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Speaker 2: a bicoastal you know, spouse, and that means we've probably

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Speaker 2: lived about a third of the time in DC, a

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Speaker 2: third of the time in Santa Monica and a third

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Speaker 2: of the time, including the entire Biden White House, I

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Speaker 2: commuted back and forth every single week, even more than

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Speaker 2: a California member of Congress.

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Speaker 1: Would you are it allows you mess? Uh? You know,

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Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if that's a good thing

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Speaker 1: or a bad thing about showing off in a life.

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Speaker 1: If you've hit all these great statuses on airplanes, it

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Speaker 1: means you're never at home.

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Speaker 2: No, you know. For me, what it's about is I

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Speaker 2: work like crazy on planes so that every moment I'm home,

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Speaker 2: I can be with my family. So I'd say the

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Speaker 2: only time this whole thing was unbelievably painful was my

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Speaker 2: third year with President Obama. My wife had gone back

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Speaker 2: to start restarter her TV writing career. My son graduated

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Speaker 2: from high school, and I had about ten months where

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Speaker 2: I was commuting back and forth, and my daughter was

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Speaker 2: like seven or eight, and I used to get in

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Speaker 2: the car and just cry sometimes. But this last time,

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Speaker 2: thanks to zoom and other things I didn't have, you know,

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Speaker 2: you could kind of be half there, half here. And

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Speaker 2: my daughter was sixteen seventeen and eighteen, and everybody knows

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Speaker 2: at sixteen seventeen and eighteen. They're not dying for you

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Speaker 2: to be there in their face every single night. So

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Speaker 2: if that part was okay.

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Speaker 1: Let me I want to dispense with one thing about

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Speaker 1: West Wind. I have been people always assume I love

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Speaker 1: the show, and I always say, you know what, I've

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Speaker 1: never I've never watched a full season, and let me

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Speaker 1: tell you why, gee, and you can tell me and

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Speaker 1: tell me why I'm wrong, because I know you're going

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Speaker 1: to be a defender, and I mean this, It's not

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Speaker 1: as if I've seen quite a few episodes and they're

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Speaker 1: really good and they're really interesting. Don't get me wrong,

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Speaker 1: but I always found him more unrealistic than realistic. And

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Speaker 1: what I always hated was when people say, why can't

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Speaker 1: it be done like it was on West Wing? And

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Speaker 1: I'm like, because west Wing was never you know, and

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Speaker 1: I've had this argument. I've actually I got arguments a

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Speaker 1: wrong word, a strong word, A debate with mister Sorkin

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Speaker 1: where because he did it with Newsroom too, where he's

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Speaker 1: creating a utopia of what could be if you had

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Speaker 1: a year to prepare for every news cycle, for instance

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Speaker 1: in Newsroom, or you had five years of historical context

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Speaker 1: to then figure out how to have done it. So

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Speaker 1: and perhaps I'm like too jaded because I'm old hotline guy.

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Speaker 2: Right, you're too jaded because you're old hotline.

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Speaker 1: I understand that. Tell me make the best case for

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Speaker 1: somebody today of why West Wing actually is emblematic of

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Speaker 1: how governing works well.

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Speaker 2: Listen, It's hard for me to think about the current

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Speaker 2: White House and how it functions well, but I would

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Speaker 2: say that if that for looked at the last couple

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Speaker 2: administrations and the years of Republican administrations before that, I

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Speaker 2: really do feel that there is a core truth in

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Speaker 2: the West Wing, which that the people there who are

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Speaker 2: there are privileged to be there, really are there to

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Speaker 2: do good for the world, but they're in a very

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Speaker 2: highly toxic and political environment. And so I think the

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Speaker 2: way that West Wing is more realistic than some of

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Speaker 2: the other you know, Scandal and other shows out there,

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Speaker 2: is that those shows tend to show people who are

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Speaker 2: only there to self deal to corrupt things. And I

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Speaker 2: think what the West Wing did show was a group

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Speaker 2: of people who were trying to do something idealistic, but

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Speaker 2: they're in a very very political environment. And if you're

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Speaker 2: not political political and you don't deal with those issues

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Speaker 2: you don't do well. I think what makes me sad

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Speaker 2: a little bit is I spent a long time telling

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Speaker 2: people that that's the way white Houses really were. I'm

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Speaker 2: not quite so sure that the West Wing is an

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Speaker 2: accurate perception of the current White House.

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Speaker 1: West Wing or Veep, who portrays staffers best.

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Speaker 2: Well, I liked Veep too because I think Veep. I mean,

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Speaker 2: of course, in Veep, nobody's really a good guy, but

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Speaker 2: it's meant as a satire.

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Speaker 1: It's meant I guess, I mean.

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Speaker 2: It's showing the real conflicts people are dealing with from

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Speaker 2: a kind of cynical point of view. But I still

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Speaker 2: really enjoyed that. I enjoyed the other shows too. I

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Speaker 2: just used to not like when people would kind of

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Speaker 2: think that that was more realistic than the West Wing.

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Speaker 1: Well, I hate when people say politics is like house

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Speaker 1: of cards.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, no, it's stop.

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Speaker 1: Right, Like, I'm like stop, that is not and that

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Speaker 1: would so that's where I always get I you know,

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Speaker 1: I would vacinate that. Then then again, like you know,

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Speaker 1: I can watch a few Good Men two thousand times,

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Speaker 1: and I probably watched it two thousand times, So it's

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Speaker 1: not that I don't love a good. Aaron Sorkin script,

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Speaker 1: that's for sure. I mean, the man is a genius

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Speaker 1: television writer. There's no doubt about it.

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Speaker 2: When it comes to dialogue, all right, whenever I see Aaron,

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Speaker 2: he's he asked me how how my wife Allison is doing?

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Speaker 2: And I say, we're still together. And he says the

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Speaker 2: two lasting things of the West Wing residual checks and

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Speaker 2: gene and Allison's marriage.

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Speaker 1: By the way, right when HBO Max was going to

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Speaker 1: get rid of it, there was like an uproar and

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Speaker 1: it reminded people, so it kept the checks coming, right.

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Speaker 2: It really is. One thing I really will say is

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Speaker 2: the number of people who I've seen actually go into

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Speaker 2: public service. I mean, famously Cody Keenan.

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Speaker 1: Who well, you're right, who watched it in it like

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Speaker 1: inspired them to do it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, And I think, you know, I don't think

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Speaker 2: it was a TV show for me, but I think

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Speaker 2: you would see, you know, I'd see people huddled around

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Speaker 2: RFK when I was a kid in sixty eight, and

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Speaker 2: you know, I think sometimes you know that perception that

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Speaker 2: that's something positive, that you can do good things, that

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Speaker 2: you don't have to be the candidate to make a difference,

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Speaker 2: and help people's lives or fight for justice. I think

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Speaker 2: it's a positive thing and it's still pretty influential on

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Speaker 2: a lot of college campuses around the country.

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Speaker 1: Right, it has had a lot of staying power. Have

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Speaker 1: you how serious have reboots been thrown around?

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Speaker 2: I think it's more people toying with people. I mean,

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Speaker 2: you know, I stay in touch with Brad Whitford in

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Speaker 2: Delay Hill, and I did run in and I get

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Speaker 2: to see Aaron Sorkin and Martin when we did a

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Speaker 2: twenty fifth anniversary celebration at the White House. But I

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Speaker 2: think there was once where I kind of was like, hey, guys,

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Speaker 2: if this happens and I'm out of government, remember me.

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Speaker 2: And I kind of got the word back. Now we're

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Speaker 2: we're just toying with you, but we'll see.

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Speaker 1: Before I get to what you're working on. Because I think, look,

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Speaker 1: I think and we've been I think we were in

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Speaker 1: a room together not too long ago. I think AI

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Speaker 1: job displacement is going to drive political debates fear of

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Speaker 1: AI job displacement over the next decade. Whether it hits

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Speaker 1: is another story. Right, there's the fear of it and

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Speaker 1: then there's the actual fear is going to drive a

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Speaker 1: lot of political particularly in twenty twenty eight. So I

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Speaker 1: want to get to that. But before we get to that,

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Speaker 1: what's the state of the economy. What do you look

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Speaker 1: at on a week to week basis to give your

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Speaker 1: bit to what touchstones do you look at to determine

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Speaker 1: whether this is a good economy, a bad economy, or

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Speaker 1: a shaky economy.

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Speaker 2: So I think there's moments where you pretty much know

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Speaker 2: what you're looking for. Things are pretty clear, even if

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Speaker 2: you don't know what the exact narrative how it's going

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Speaker 2: to turn out, you know what the narrative is. This

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Speaker 2: is a little bit of a tricky time. I think

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Speaker 2: that what you were looking for after the kind of

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Speaker 2: worst of the post pandemic supply chain shocks and global

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Speaker 2: inflation was you were looking for what everybody called the

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Speaker 2: soft landing, and what that meant was that we would

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Speaker 2: be able to return to more of a normal, stable economy.

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Speaker 2: So the Biden economy had amazing job growth, incredibly low unemployment,

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Speaker 2: but there was also high inflation. And you know, people

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Speaker 2: will fight forever, people like myself will say it was global,

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Speaker 2: it was every where. It didn't wasn't really a factor

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Speaker 2: of Biden policies. But whatever you thought the cause was,

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Speaker 2: people wanted to see that soft landing. So what's interesting

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Speaker 2: is that you've had pretty close to what people hope for.

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Speaker 2: So when you had high inflation, you can remember that

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Speaker 2: Larry Summers famously said, Oh, the only way you're going

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Speaker 2: to bring this down is to have ten percent unemployment

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Speaker 2: or two years of seven and a half percent unemployment

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Speaker 2: or five years of six percent. Well that didn't happen.

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Speaker 2: So the good news was that we've been able to

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Speaker 2: so far avoid a you know, avoid caming inflation inflation

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Speaker 2: only in a Paul Voker sense of well, I was.

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Speaker 1: Just gonna say, let me let let's put a pause

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Speaker 1: before you jump to that part. Doesn't this reinforce not

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Speaker 1: a belief anymore? But is this now a confirmation that

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Speaker 1: this was essentially COVID related, COVID inspired, COVID driven, and

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Speaker 1: because we had the artificial stoppage and then and then

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Speaker 1: suddenly it's sort of like kinking a hose and then

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Speaker 1: I'm kicking it and a surge of product and a

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Speaker 1: surge of money, and a surge of this. You know,

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Speaker 1: as fast as it went up is as fast as

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Speaker 1: it went down. The fact that it didn't take ten

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Speaker 1: percent interest rates and it didn't take ten percent unemployment.

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Speaker 1: Is that now confirmation for you that this was global

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Speaker 1: and ninety five percent COVID?

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Speaker 2: I think for me it is. I think it is

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Speaker 2: for a lot of people. I think it's hard to have,

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Speaker 2: you know, this easy objective conversation because one, there's so

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Speaker 2: much politics involved, and you know, there's such a desire

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Speaker 2: for the current administration to blame the last administration. There's

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Speaker 2: so many people on the Democratic side that are just

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Speaker 2: disappointed that Joe Biden lost and that people ignored people

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Speaker 2: were so unhappy about prices. So there's so much political debate.

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Speaker 2: But you know, I do think that for a lot

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Speaker 2: of people, I cited an article Mark Zandy from Moody's,

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Speaker 2: Peter orzag Our, former O and B director, and others

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Speaker 2: who definitely feel that the fact that this came down

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Speaker 2: without engineering a recession was evidence that this was overall

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Speaker 2: globally inspired, pandemic related supply shot chain that said people

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Speaker 2: will still debate the American rescue plan, and I don't

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Speaker 2: think there's I think politically you'll hear Republicans now say,

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Speaker 2: oh my god, everything that happened you know bad was

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Speaker 2: due to Joe biden American Rescue Plant. That's clearly not true. Clearly,

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Speaker 2: the American Rescue Plan had some very good effects in

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Speaker 2: making US the leader and growth in the G seven, lower,

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Speaker 2: unemployment less scarring long term negative impacts. But people will

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Speaker 2: debate the inflation impact, and I think that the reasonable

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Speaker 2: debate says, hey, maybe it led to inflation here being

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Speaker 2: a point or a point half higher than it would

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Speaker 2: have been, but it had these good parts. And I'd

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Speaker 2: say the people who are most critical would say, no,

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Speaker 2: it's more like three points higher. But I think you

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Speaker 2: and I both know that in twenty twenty two, after

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Speaker 2: Putin invaded Ukraine, you know, inflation almost everywhere in the

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Speaker 2: world was seven eight nine percent, regardless of whether people

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Speaker 2: had done a major fiscal stimulus. And you also saw

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Speaker 2: every head of state did poorly everywhere in the world.

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Speaker 1: Now, that could be an antim.

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Speaker 2: A reincumbent, you know, an incumbent in that setting, but

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Speaker 2: you know, for me, I think it is you know,

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Speaker 2: I think the fact that inflation went up everywhere and

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Speaker 2: the way it came down, you know, it does confirm

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Speaker 2: that this was not fundamentally about fiscal policy. But about

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Speaker 2: the pandemic. But again, to be fair to some of

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Speaker 2: the people who disagree with me, they would say, you know,

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Speaker 2: it's a more nuanced analysis.

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Speaker 1: from now. In an economics class, that might look at

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Speaker 1: a couple of case studies about what you do in

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Speaker 1: a in an economic crisis. Either one that's directly about

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Speaker 1: the economy, like what we had with the housing crisis

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Speaker 1: and the Great Recession, or something like COVID which sort

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Speaker 1: of impacted the global economy. One of the things that

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Speaker 1: my simple hot take has always been, we had two

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Speaker 1: choices with COVID. We either had inflation or recession, and

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Speaker 1: if we didn't throw money, If we had handled COVID

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Speaker 1: the way we'd handled the housing crisis, which is to

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Speaker 1: be fiscally a bit small sea conservative about how much

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Speaker 1: money we threw at the issue, we probably prevent inflation,

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Speaker 1: but we might have had a massive recession. The less

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Speaker 1: I've always felt is if that COVID, coming just within

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Speaker 1: a decade of the Great Recession, sort of got everybody thinking, hey,

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Speaker 1: we better if we're not sure, throw a little bit

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Speaker 1: more money at it. Let's not underfund, let's overfund. Do

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Speaker 1: you think fifty years from now, That's how we'll look

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Speaker 1: at those two events. And it's sort of when it

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Speaker 1: comes to government intervention, the economic crisis, the Great Recession

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Speaker 1: will always be seen as an example of government not

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Speaker 1: doing enough, and COVID will be seeing as an example

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Speaker 1: of when government does a little too much. I know

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Speaker 1: I'm being very I'm asking for a black and white

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Speaker 1: hot take on something that be incredibly it's generally speaking, I've.

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Speaker 2: Actually written on this exact topic. I wrote in the

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Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal a while ago on the lessons learned argument.

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Speaker 2: And I think people will debate this. I think that

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Speaker 2: there's kind of a will be you know. I think

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Speaker 2: some people will make it a more simple argument of

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Speaker 2: you know, but even then there's a question of lessons

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Speaker 2: learned or lessons overlearned. So the lessons over learned argument

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Speaker 2: was one you did too little in the financial crisis.

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Speaker 2: I don't think by the way that was by intent

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Speaker 2: by President Obama as someone there. I just think you

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Speaker 2: couldn't get it, couldn't get to politically.

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Speaker 1: Look by the way in fairness politically it will I mean,

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Speaker 1: you couldn't cross that that number. It had to be under.

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Speaker 2: A true exactly. You know. There was sometimes people think

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Speaker 2: there was just debate, but I do that there was

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Speaker 2: also a sense in two thousand and eight, two thousand

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Speaker 2: and nine that if you were wrong, maybe you could

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Speaker 2: come back and get more. And I think one of

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Speaker 2: the lessons that was learned there was, hey, you may

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Speaker 2: only get one shot, so you might go bigger because

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Speaker 2: you may not get another shot. Two is the insurance policy.

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Speaker 2: Other things might happen, like who would have predicted Putin

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Speaker 2: was going to invade Ukraine. As you remember, in the

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Speaker 2: financial crisis, there was the Greece in eure a financial crisis.

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Speaker 2: So another argument is put a little extra because there

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Speaker 2: might be unknowns that are going to slow you down

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Speaker 2: even more. One lesson I really think we learned well

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Speaker 2: was that when you don't do enough right away, there's

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Speaker 2: a lot of long term suffering that takes place, long

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Speaker 2: term unemployment, young people who couldn't get into the job

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Speaker 2: market for four or five years. Economists actually have a

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Speaker 2: phrase that makes sense. They call it scarring, and it's right.

432
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 2: What it means is they didn't These people didn't just

433
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,400
Speaker 2: suffer for a year or two. Their lifetime earnings were changed.

434
00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:25,719
Speaker 2: Their rates of divorce and alcoholism and suicide or deaths

435
00:26:25,720 --> 00:26:30,399
Speaker 2: of despair were changed. So one good lesson learned was

436
00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:34,080
Speaker 2: that in this financial crisis you had a lot of

437
00:26:34,119 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 2: strength right away and so you didn't get the long

438
00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: term unemployment. We had a policy that actually prevented millions

439
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 2: of people from being evicted. So I think on the

440
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 2: whole the argument will be that the American Rescue Plan

441
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:55,399
Speaker 2: did properly learn the lessons. The counter will be, well,

442
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,439
Speaker 2: but maybe you overlearned by doing a little bit too much.

443
00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,680
Speaker 2: And that's the people who will argue that the American

444
00:27:02,720 --> 00:27:06,160
Speaker 2: Rescue Plan, even if it wasn't the cause of all

445
00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:09,600
Speaker 2: the inflation or even most of inflation, kind of added

446
00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,080
Speaker 2: to it. And that's where I think you will continue

447
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,720
Speaker 2: to have the debates where people like myself will say,

448
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 2: and probably Jared Bernstein would say, and Peter orzagnersay, didn't

449
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:23,720
Speaker 2: have that much, but my friend Jason Furman would say,

450
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:26,800
Speaker 2: you know, you should have done a bit more. I

451
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: do think what will happen going forward, Chuck, from now

452
00:27:29,880 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: on is that I do think you had an entire

453
00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 2: generation of people who had never seen significant inflation. And

454
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:38,200
Speaker 2: so I'm not.

455
00:27:38,080 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 1: Sorry, that's one hundred percent right. Like I you know,

456
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 1: I would sit there and say, I had a memory

457
00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: of my of my parents excited when interest rates got

458
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: from win from double digits to single digits. So I

459
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:53,880
Speaker 1: had at least remembered that era and of the era

460
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,320
Speaker 1: of the late seventies and early eighties, and it did.

461
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:59,119
Speaker 1: I mean, we were one of those working class families

462
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: that we couldn't afford a house until the interest rates

463
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 1: finally got to I think it was just under nine percent,

464
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 1: and we could finally get into a house exactly. That

465
00:28:09,760 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 1: was a big deal.

466
00:28:11,400 --> 00:28:16,280
Speaker 2: Four. When Reagan runs on mourning in America, things really

467
00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 2: aren't very good inflation.

468
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:19,560
Speaker 1: They were better than they were.

469
00:28:20,240 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 2: That's the key it had. People remembered things being bad

470
00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: for so long that when it improved, Reagan got lots

471
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 2: of credit. And what hurt President Biden is that even

472
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:37,879
Speaker 2: when inflation came down, people still remembered beef and milk

473
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: and cheese and eggs being lower. And so I do

474
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 2: think that even though I don't believe the American Rescue

475
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 2: Plan was the cause of most or even the significant

476
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,960
Speaker 2: amount of the inflation, do I think that next time

477
00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,239
Speaker 2: around people will think about it more, or worry a

478
00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 2: little bit, or do the balance more. Yes, because they've

479
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:05,040
Speaker 2: now lived through a world where they saw President Biden

480
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 2: do what you and I would have predicted would have

481
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 2: been a winning hand going into twenty four, which was

482
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 2: inflation coming down under three percent, record low unemployment, and

483
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: all of those things were dwarfed by people's unhappiness with

484
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 2: everyday prices that they went to the grocery store and

485
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 2: saw and that is both a politic that's an economic lesson,

486
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,000
Speaker 2: but it's also going to be a political lesson for

487
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 2: I think a generation.

488
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 1: I mean, what the seventies taught me and especially now

489
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 1: looking in hindsight, is that inflation is nonpartisan, or inflation

490
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 1: is bipartisan, however you want to say it. In this respect,

491
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 1: inflation took down three presidents, Right, Richard Nixon loses support

492
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: among Republicans. People always forget this. If the economy is better,

493
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:58,320
Speaker 1: Nixon fights harder and Republicans probably fight on his behalf

494
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:03,120
Speaker 1: and maybe, but you know, the bad economy was was

495
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,520
Speaker 1: a secret sauce in that that made it easier to

496
00:30:05,600 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 1: dump him. Forward. Look at the end of the day, right,

497
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: you know, whip inflation now that terrible you know slogan

498
00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 1: he had wi n win Whip inflation Now that didn't work.

499
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 1: And then Carter you know, one because of it and

500
00:30:19,840 --> 00:30:22,719
Speaker 1: then immediately lost because of it. So the point is

501
00:30:22,720 --> 00:30:25,440
Speaker 1: is that it was a reminder that the American public

502
00:30:25,560 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: just focuses on what's in front of them, not what

503
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:33,120
Speaker 1: not always what what was, it's what is, and inflation

504
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 1: is one of those what is or the other.

505
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: Thing too is that if you're preventing, if you have

506
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:43,719
Speaker 2: greater job growth, lower unemployment, those things are good and important.

507
00:30:44,240 --> 00:30:48,600
Speaker 2: They don't affect everybody, you know, the inflation does. Now.

508
00:30:48,640 --> 00:30:51,520
Speaker 2: One thing you and I did know politically was we

509
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:56,080
Speaker 2: did know that gas prices have a disproportionate impact on

510
00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 2: presidential approval.

511
00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:00,480
Speaker 1: Well that and that also is a scar from the

512
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 1: seventies and gas lines and I mean, my those are

513
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:08,720
Speaker 1: bright memories for me, right, but I think what.

514
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:13,600
Speaker 2: Was learned in twenty three and twenty four was that

515
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 2: it's not gas prices per se, it's everyday prices that

516
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 2: somebody is confronted with on a week by week basis.

517
00:31:23,080 --> 00:31:27,000
Speaker 2: And so even though inflation's coming down, even though the

518
00:31:27,120 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 2: job market is good, people are going through the grocery

519
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 2: line or the gas line and they're not happy. And

520
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 2: that's hitting a much wider number of people. And the

521
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: other thing that's interesting is, I mean you could say

522
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: it's American, but you could also say we learned its global.

523
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 2: You can't name one incumbent head of state in the

524
00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 2: post pandemic period that did very well, not a single one.

525
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 2: And so you know, I think I think it's an

526
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:06,960
Speaker 2: unusual combination of inflation all the strains of the pandemic,

527
00:32:07,440 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 2: but it's kind of you know, one thing you can't

528
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 2: do is say if only Joe Biden had done like

529
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 2: incumbent x or Y had done. There are no ones.

530
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:22,160
Speaker 2: So that again does suggest that the kind of unhappiness

531
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 2: of people dealing with everyday price is going higher. And

532
00:32:26,000 --> 00:32:30,640
Speaker 2: it's what makes things so puzzling about President Trump is

533
00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,960
Speaker 2: that he now has seen all these things happen. He's

534
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 2: learned this lesson. He's got the benefit of hindsight, and

535
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 2: this is a point people never make, but they need

536
00:32:43,240 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 2: to when he comes in. Not only is inflation a

537
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 2: little under three percent, every major forecaster in the country

538
00:32:51,440 --> 00:32:54,720
Speaker 2: is projecting it's going down to two percent. So I

539
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 2: think a lot of people on like the Bien Economic team,

540
00:32:57,560 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 2: are like, boy, bad luck for us. Our soft landing

541
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,400
Speaker 2: is on its way, and it's going to land because

542
00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: of the hard work we did.

543
00:33:06,040 --> 00:33:08,360
Speaker 1: With President time in a row that Trump inherit's a

544
00:33:08,400 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: healing economy from a democratic president, right.

545
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,800
Speaker 2: I know. And then he goes out of his way

546
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 2: to ignore every political lesson and put tariffs on everyday products.

547
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,480
Speaker 2: So That's why I've said before. You know, when they

548
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 2: say it's the Biden economy, I say, no, it's the

549
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: self inflicted wound economy. You could have just done nothing

550
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 2: and coasted on the Biden economy. You've gone out of

551
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 2: your way to keep inflation not just higher, but in

552
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 2: a lot of those everyday products. That makes people so unhappy.

553
00:33:42,280 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: There is I'm curious your take on whether it is.

554
00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:49,000
Speaker 1: I'm sure you don't think it's fair that service for

555
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,239
Speaker 1: the in the Biden white House might be seen as

556
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: a demerit if you run for president. But what do

557
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 1: you make of this issue for Pete Budet?

558
00:33:57,080 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: Well, you know, I think, yeah, I think it's a

559
00:34:01,160 --> 00:34:04,920
Speaker 2: long ways to go. And you know, I'm like you,

560
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,040
Speaker 2: I'm an addict, so I a political you know, I'm

561
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 2: as much of a so I follow it. But I

562
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:19,760
Speaker 2: think it's a long ways a way. I do think

563
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: that I do think that that people are you know,

564
00:34:25,320 --> 00:34:28,720
Speaker 2: I think the debate that happened in the Biden White

565
00:34:28,719 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 2: House and where some of us might have different views,

566
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: has been greatly exaggerated. It's as if like President Biden

567
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:41,360
Speaker 2: didn't care about affordability. Of course he was running, you know,

568
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 2: He was the one who did the prescription drugs, you know,

569
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 2: bring down prescription drugs and key things. He was the

570
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 2: one focusing on lowering electricity and energy prices. Our whole

571
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:58,480
Speaker 2: we had a major childcare initiative, which, even as you

572
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,880
Speaker 2: saw with may Or Mundami, one of the key issues.

573
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:05,000
Speaker 2: So I think people are wrong to think there wasn't

574
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 2: affordability focus. I think what it really came down to,

575
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 2: and maybe where I sometimes had a little bit of

576
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:14,880
Speaker 2: a different view, was that I did get my political

577
00:35:14,960 --> 00:35:19,040
Speaker 2: upbringing with Bill Clinton. And Bill Clinton was known as

578
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 2: the feel you're paying guy, and there's truth to that.

579
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:25,600
Speaker 2: Bill Clinton told me in my first few months in

580
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 2: the White House when I was writing the statements from him,

581
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 2: he said, never write a statement that wouldn't seem right

582
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:38,960
Speaker 2: to somebody in one of the thirty worst economic counties.

583
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:44,760
Speaker 2: That so, in other words, stay connected and touched first.

584
00:35:45,239 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 2: I think what happened with Biden was there was a

585
00:35:48,360 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 2: conflict between that and the saying, hey, if you don't

586
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 2: put forward your best foot, nobody would so wrong.

587
00:35:55,480 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 1: It was the wrong lesson learned from Trump. I think

588
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 1: there's a there's a there's a it's interesting you say

589
00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: that there's a chunk of Democrats who think, hey, the

590
00:36:06,160 --> 00:36:08,640
Speaker 1: lesson to learn from Trump is bullshit, like he does.

591
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:14,160
Speaker 2: No, I think, you know, look, I'm very I defend

592
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 2: a lot of the things we've done, and I realized

593
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 2: things are hard choices. I do think we probably could

594
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: have done a better job of starting by recognizing people's

595
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 2: unhappiness and then try to and then connecting, try to

596
00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 2: explain why we're doing things to do better. But I

597
00:36:35,640 --> 00:36:39,839
Speaker 2: will say, Chuck that you know, at the time, there

598
00:36:39,880 --> 00:36:44,040
Speaker 2: were lots of smart political people who were saying, why

599
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 2: aren't you guys bragging about record job growth enough? Why

600
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:50,279
Speaker 2: aren't you bragging if the president doesn't do that? So

601
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 2: I will say, but I will agree that I think

602
00:36:55,320 --> 00:37:00,440
Speaker 2: we could have maybe focused more on first, you know, connect, Hey,

603
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: we're not happy prices are up. Explain to people that

604
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 2: we're doing everything we can explain why we want to pass.

605
00:37:07,960 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 2: But start more from the basis of a little bit

606
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:15,759
Speaker 2: of Clintonian feel your pain. But I don't think that

607
00:37:15,880 --> 00:37:20,240
Speaker 2: should be confused with the idea that Joe Biden wasn't

608
00:37:20,239 --> 00:37:23,479
Speaker 2: out there fighting for a child tax credit, which gave

609
00:37:23,520 --> 00:37:26,840
Speaker 2: people a few thousand dollars more in their pocket, fighting

610
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:32,279
Speaker 2: for lower healthcare costs. I think criticisms of like, you know,

611
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 2: I think people who want to show their new and

612
00:37:35,680 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 2: change oriented are going to probably pick some holes at

613
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:44,879
Speaker 2: Biden alum in the primaries. That's kind of basic politics.

614
00:37:45,320 --> 00:37:47,719
Speaker 2: But I think in the end people will have a

615
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 2: time chance to say what they could do and what

616
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,839
Speaker 2: they could and the truth was, Joe Biden had the

617
00:37:55,000 --> 00:38:00,040
Speaker 2: tiniest of margins. So like on a Biparson infrastructure bill.

618
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 1: I mean, imagine what imagine what your job would have

619
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: been like had it been a Republican Senate with a

620
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,600
Speaker 1: Democratic House, which was the most likely scenario before the

621
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:10,040
Speaker 1: Georgia Rubbins. No.

622
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 2: So we got a lot of good things done, but

623
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 2: when those things got done, you couldn't always do them

624
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: exactly like you want, So you couldn't like necessarily get

625
00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:24,160
Speaker 2: everything out the door as fast as you wanted or

626
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:28,040
Speaker 2: things like that. But you know, again, we've got a

627
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 2: lot there's gonna be a lot of primary candidates. They're

628
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:32,520
Speaker 2: going to take a lot of shots at each other.

629
00:38:33,080 --> 00:38:36,280
Speaker 2: I tend to like and know most of the people

630
00:38:36,520 --> 00:38:39,640
Speaker 2: that people are talking about, So I'm looking at people

631
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 2: I basically admire and I'm kind of like sitting back

632
00:38:43,120 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 2: and kind of watching like I'm Chuck Todd, wanting to

633
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,480
Speaker 2: see who's good, who's effective.

634
00:38:48,040 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 1: Well, the most likely what's the most likely scenario of

635
00:38:51,120 --> 00:38:54,200
Speaker 1: one of them? When's the presidency? Jean Spurley's going to

636
00:38:54,239 --> 00:38:54,680
Speaker 1: go work for.

637
00:38:56,480 --> 00:39:00,040
Speaker 2: I will say that from a family perspective, for me

638
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 2: to go out with that would be both you know,

639
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:06,759
Speaker 2: from a human perspective, would be arrogant to suggest that

640
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:09,880
Speaker 2: you know somebody would want you again, and from a

641
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:15,440
Speaker 2: family perspective forecasting that would probably not do well for me.

642
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: Right now, we're focused on the upsides of not being

643
00:39:20,760 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 2: in the government.

644
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Podcast is brought to you

645
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,000
Speaker 1: by American Financing. Let's be honest, the math just isn't

646
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:32,879
Speaker 1: adding up lately. Between the grocery store and those skyrocketing

647
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,680
Speaker 1: insurance premiums. Even with a steady job, more families are

648
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,400
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672
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673
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674
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675
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676
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677
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678
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679
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699
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Speaker 1: something you should really think about, especially if you've got

700
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Speaker 1: a growing family. So let's talk about where is what.

701
00:42:40,800 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 1: You're one of the few people who understands economists speak

702
00:42:45,160 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 1: and sort of Americans speak, right, which is why I

703
00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:52,279
Speaker 1: think you've been a popular staffer to bring in for presidents,

704
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:56,160
Speaker 1: because you're just you're not just thinking like an economist

705
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:59,279
Speaker 1: and a data guy, but sort of you're able to

706
00:42:59,320 --> 00:43:05,560
Speaker 1: fuse it with sort of realistic, realistic policy that you

707
00:43:05,600 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 1: can sell. Right. There's one thing about proposing policy, but

708
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:12,000
Speaker 1: it's policy you can actually sell to the public. I

709
00:43:12,040 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 1: think the pitchforks are being sharpened. There's definitely distrust and

710
00:43:17,200 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 1: anger at sort of corporate America generally and the biggest

711
00:43:22,080 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 1: companies specifically AI. Job displacement's probably going to fuel this

712
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 1: even more it is. Is it inevitable that just becomes

713
00:43:33,960 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: just some sort of anger driven political movement, or is

714
00:43:42,520 --> 00:43:46,600
Speaker 1: there a chance for somebody to, you know, for this

715
00:43:46,760 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 1: not to end up down that road, Like I think

716
00:43:49,280 --> 00:43:51,400
Speaker 1: it's we're inevitably going to go there. We're gonna have

717
00:43:51,440 --> 00:43:54,319
Speaker 1: to have this moment that we end up there. Maybe

718
00:43:54,360 --> 00:43:56,000
Speaker 1: it's a little bit like the first part of the

719
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:58,520
Speaker 1: twentieth century, but there really is sort of almost a

720
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:03,080
Speaker 1: revolt against some of these folks here because of the frustrations,

721
00:44:03,160 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 1: and it will be this sort of white collar blue

722
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:12,440
Speaker 1: collar a mix. But maybe I'm wrong, and maybe AI

723
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 1: is more like what you know, computers in everyday life

724
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,480
Speaker 1: turned into increased productivity and all boats rows.

725
00:44:20,840 --> 00:44:23,799
Speaker 2: So you know, I've never been somebody you know who

726
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 2: like starts running to a camp, you know, when I see,

727
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 2: you know, like with a policy tribe, because I often

728
00:44:31,360 --> 00:44:35,719
Speaker 2: don't think that it's helpful in finding what's good economic

729
00:44:35,800 --> 00:44:39,560
Speaker 2: policy or even what's good economic message to think like

730
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: you have to be in a single camp or the other.

731
00:44:42,400 --> 00:44:45,279
Speaker 2: So of course I run into people who feel like,

732
00:44:45,320 --> 00:44:49,320
Speaker 2: oh my god, everything we need does has to sound

733
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 2: kind of quote centrist or practical, and then other side

734
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,360
Speaker 2: who are saying no, every single thing needs to be

735
00:44:56,480 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 2: populist anger, I don't know that the world looks like that.

736
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 2: I would say that to me, You've got to do

737
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:08,719
Speaker 2: maybe two things together, which is one, you do need

738
00:45:08,760 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 2: to be an optimist about people's lives. You do need

739
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 2: to show that you want to see more people meet

740
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:24,040
Speaker 2: the American dream, not just tread water, but get ahead

741
00:45:24,560 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 2: and maybe own a house, have a little nest stake

742
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 2: for their retirement. You need that optimism and positive view.

743
00:45:33,680 --> 00:45:38,360
Speaker 2: And I do think that presidents who've done well have

744
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,719
Speaker 2: done that and so. But on the other hand, I

745
00:45:41,719 --> 00:45:46,879
Speaker 2: don't think you can hold back when there's clear economic injustice.

746
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: I don't know that Americans are, you know, have a

747
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 2: I'm against you know, business or corporate America. I think

748
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:58,799
Speaker 2: they understand that that's where a lot of jobs and

749
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:01,920
Speaker 2: growth come. But they are against when they think the

750
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 2: system is rigged, or when a bottom line that affects

751
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:13,399
Speaker 2: a chosen few is doing is more important than your

752
00:46:13,520 --> 00:46:17,759
Speaker 2: lives and your struggle. So I think you need to

753
00:46:18,120 --> 00:46:20,960
Speaker 2: I think what we need is to have a degree

754
00:46:21,120 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 2: of optimism that we are the ones who can be

755
00:46:23,800 --> 00:46:26,799
Speaker 2: good for the economy. We are the ones that can

756
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:30,240
Speaker 2: help you get ahead, and that doesn't mean being down

757
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,799
Speaker 2: on everybody who's a major job creator. But on the

758
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 2: other hand, people don't believe people who believe in markets

759
00:46:39,000 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 2: and capitalism, which I think is most Americans still believe

760
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,000
Speaker 2: that the ultimate purpose of what they do is not

761
00:46:47,160 --> 00:46:53,240
Speaker 2: big bonuses for the CEO or just extracting profits for shareholders.

762
00:46:53,560 --> 00:46:57,239
Speaker 2: They think, as I've written about in my book in

763
00:46:57,280 --> 00:47:00,359
Speaker 2: the past and now, they think that the ultimate goal,

764
00:47:00,600 --> 00:47:04,760
Speaker 2: rightly is does it benefit typical people? Does it provide

765
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 2: economic dignity? And so when they see people doing things

766
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 2: that are just about extracting profits from them, when they

767
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:18,760
Speaker 2: see a kind of economic policy that is not geared

768
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 2: towards creating more jobs, good jobs, jobs with dignity, jobs

769
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 2: with respect, then they're going to be angry. And I

770
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 2: think it is okay to tap into that anger. And

771
00:47:28,880 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: I think it is okay to say I believe in

772
00:47:32,640 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 2: our American market based system, but the goal of that

773
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:41,040
Speaker 2: market based system is ultimately the well being and economic

774
00:47:41,080 --> 00:47:45,160
Speaker 2: dignity of working families. And if you have a system

775
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:49,160
Speaker 2: that is rigged to benefit just the few and not

776
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:53,640
Speaker 2: typical American families, then yeah, you should be anger angry

777
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:57,600
Speaker 2: about that, and nobody running for president in the Democratic

778
00:47:57,640 --> 00:48:02,880
Speaker 2: side should be hesitant in pressing that anger. And I

779
00:48:02,960 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 2: won't just I'll take a second just to start on

780
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 2: the AI if you want. But it's also a good

781
00:48:08,120 --> 00:48:11,320
Speaker 2: example of that, you know. I mean, if you listen

782
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 2: to people now, you might think, if you're listening to

783
00:48:14,680 --> 00:48:17,600
Speaker 2: the White House, that well, AI is just going to happen,

784
00:48:18,080 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 2: and maybe it's going to hurt a lot of jobs,

785
00:48:20,880 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 2: and we should preempt states from trying to regulate it

786
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 2: in any way, or make sure people have protections of

787
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:32,640
Speaker 2: privacy or against abusive surveillance, or to make sure that

788
00:48:32,680 --> 00:48:37,359
Speaker 2: we're dealing with job dislocation. And the response comes by no, no, no,

789
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:40,280
Speaker 2: we have to rush, rush, rush to get more GDP

790
00:48:41,160 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 2: and greater growth. And I think they will lose people

791
00:48:44,800 --> 00:48:48,600
Speaker 2: because people will ask the question I've said, but what's

792
00:48:48,640 --> 00:48:52,320
Speaker 2: the ultimate point if why would we have a policy

793
00:48:52,680 --> 00:48:56,840
Speaker 2: that's not good for jobs, it's not good for the

794
00:48:56,960 --> 00:49:00,719
Speaker 2: typical family. And I think that it's not maybe the

795
00:49:00,760 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 2: front and center issue now, but I think it will be,

796
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,320
Speaker 2: and I think it will be part of that bigger picture,

797
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,640
Speaker 2: which is what is the ultimate goal of our economy,

798
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:14,120
Speaker 2: and if people think it's just to have some enormous

799
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 2: wealth and five or six AI companies and we'll just

800
00:49:19,239 --> 00:49:24,160
Speaker 2: deal with the effect on job loss and income loss

801
00:49:24,239 --> 00:49:26,560
Speaker 2: as an after effect. People are going to be angry.

802
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 2: They're going to be rightly angry. And I think people

803
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:33,400
Speaker 2: going in twenty eight will do better not to be

804
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 2: like they're head in the sand about AI or the

805
00:49:37,320 --> 00:49:39,920
Speaker 2: good things it could do. But people who are going

806
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:43,840
Speaker 2: to say, front and center, my goal is you your job,

807
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:47,320
Speaker 2: whether your children can be as well off as you are.

808
00:49:47,520 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 2: And when I'm thinking about AI, I'm thinking that about

809
00:49:53,000 --> 00:49:57,759
Speaker 2: how we shape it to serve average people. Technology is

810
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 2: not destiny. Democracy determines our destiny.

811
00:50:04,000 --> 00:50:06,160
Speaker 1: Some of the proposals that are out there about AI

812
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 1: job displacement remind me of some of the ideas that

813
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: you guys attempted to implement during sort of the the

814
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:18,319
Speaker 1: era of the nineties, the free trade era of the nineties, right,

815
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,719
Speaker 1: And I remember one of the central promises on NAFTA was,

816
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 1: you know, when when if factories went away, there'd be

817
00:50:25,160 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 1: there was always you know, there was going to be

818
00:50:26,480 --> 00:50:30,360
Speaker 1: money there for retraining and job displacement. And the money

819
00:50:30,400 --> 00:50:32,839
Speaker 1: was there and there was retraining, but it turned out

820
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 1: that didn't take right. There were weren't a lot, There

821
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 1: weren't as many people interested in some of the retraining

822
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: opportunities that were offered. I don't and I'm curious what

823
00:50:42,680 --> 00:50:45,400
Speaker 1: lessons you take away from that as you think about

824
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: developing Frank what I assume will potentially be a policy

825
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:53,919
Speaker 1: that next a new president may may be influenced by

826
00:50:54,560 --> 00:50:57,959
Speaker 1: I sort of how to manage this displacement. The displacement's

827
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:01,040
Speaker 1: going to happen. And you know, I'm I'm I am

828
00:51:01,880 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 1: you know, I'm a capitalist. You know, I think we

829
00:51:04,640 --> 00:51:07,759
Speaker 1: just want capitalism with a little bit of guardrails. And

830
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:10,360
Speaker 1: in every technology, right, this has been true of the

831
00:51:10,400 --> 00:51:13,080
Speaker 1: media business, and it's true of really anything. Right, you

832
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: get a new technology, there's immediately fragmentation. Maybe you get

833
00:51:17,560 --> 00:51:20,640
Speaker 1: a thousand startups, and then eventually you get consolidation, and

834
00:51:20,680 --> 00:51:22,919
Speaker 1: then a new technology comes and the cycle can begin

835
00:51:22,960 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 1: all over again. Globalization, in some ways right, the idea

836
00:51:26,360 --> 00:51:29,799
Speaker 1: of free trade, which of course the upside was there's

837
00:51:29,840 --> 00:51:32,520
Speaker 1: not a fruit you can't get any any month of

838
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:36,120
Speaker 1: the year in America now, which was not true when

839
00:51:36,160 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 1: you and I were growing up. It was not true

840
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,359
Speaker 1: in the eighties and nineties. But that's what free trade

841
00:51:40,400 --> 00:51:43,279
Speaker 1: has done right in many ways, And that's just it's

842
00:51:43,520 --> 00:51:45,879
Speaker 1: I always use I like to use produce because it's

843
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:49,160
Speaker 1: the simplest example of what free trade has meant. Like

844
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:52,399
Speaker 1: you realize that you know, you're you get to eat

845
00:51:52,520 --> 00:51:55,040
Speaker 1: certain fruits year round now and back in the day

846
00:51:55,160 --> 00:51:59,640
Speaker 1: you couldn't. But there was certainly right that. Arguably, the

847
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:05,360
Speaker 1: the seeds of the Trump victories of sixteen and twenty

848
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 1: four were planted with the globalization and free trade movement

849
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:15,760
Speaker 1: of the nineties. So what policies do you now wish

850
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:20,520
Speaker 1: where it implemented better than and what parallels do you

851
00:52:20,520 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 1: see as you think about what AI job displacement and

852
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:27,439
Speaker 1: what benefits are necessary to ease that pain.

853
00:52:27,960 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 2: So I guess I would disagree with one of your premises,

854
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:32,040
Speaker 2: which was that.

855
00:52:32,200 --> 00:52:33,920
Speaker 1: I throw a lot in there. So the fact that

856
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 1: you only disagree with one premise maybe is a small victory.

857
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:41,440
Speaker 2: So, first of all, I think the core issue when

858
00:52:41,480 --> 00:52:44,880
Speaker 2: you look back on kind of the Clinton agenda was

859
00:52:45,000 --> 00:52:49,520
Speaker 2: that Bill Clinton came in with the view that you know,

860
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 2: there was going to be greater global integration and that

861
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 2: we really needed a robust response.

862
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:58,960
Speaker 1: And so and by the way, you guys, you know,

863
00:52:58,960 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 1: a huge opportunity in from of you, right, we basically

864
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:05,160
Speaker 1: the end of the Cold War. This was the peace divoting.

865
00:53:05,680 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 2: No, And I think that a lot of what he

866
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:11,200
Speaker 2: was trying to do was integrate more of the world

867
00:53:11,200 --> 00:53:13,440
Speaker 2: to avoid some of the issues we're having now with

868
00:53:13,520 --> 00:53:17,280
Speaker 2: Russia and China. So there was a big foreign policy element.

869
00:53:17,480 --> 00:53:21,839
Speaker 2: But the vision was that you would have universal health care,

870
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 2: there would be a major universal training program for anybody

871
00:53:27,040 --> 00:53:30,600
Speaker 2: who lost a job for any reason, and then you

872
00:53:30,680 --> 00:53:35,440
Speaker 2: would also have significant place based investment in places. And

873
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:39,479
Speaker 2: I think what happened with President Clinton was they didn't

874
00:53:39,520 --> 00:53:42,439
Speaker 2: get that. We didn't get healthcare, and then we didn't

875
00:53:42,440 --> 00:53:46,719
Speaker 2: even get to propose our universal training proposal because we

876
00:53:46,800 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 2: lost the Congress for all six years, both houses. So

877
00:53:53,160 --> 00:53:56,640
Speaker 2: I don't think that we ever got to test out

878
00:53:57,080 --> 00:54:01,760
Speaker 2: what that we ever got to test out what truly

879
00:54:01,840 --> 00:54:06,240
Speaker 2: having a robust safety net would be like, I don't

880
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:09,239
Speaker 2: think it ever got to be put in place in

881
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:13,640
Speaker 2: the way that it might have if Democrats had controlled

882
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,840
Speaker 2: both houses for four or six years. So one, I

883
00:54:16,840 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 2: don't think we ever tested two, which is very relevant

884
00:54:20,400 --> 00:54:24,400
Speaker 2: is that globalization turned out to be much more dramatic

885
00:54:24,640 --> 00:54:29,000
Speaker 2: than anybody would have thought at the times. And then

886
00:54:29,040 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 2: you had eight years of a Republican administration that wasn't

887
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:38,200
Speaker 2: really willing to adjust to that or do anything. So

888
00:54:39,880 --> 00:54:43,880
Speaker 2: I guess i'd say number one, we still have just

889
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 2: huge holes in what I think of as an economic

890
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,320
Speaker 2: dignity net of making sure people are working or doing

891
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:54,719
Speaker 2: their best or living lives of economic dignity even in

892
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:59,000
Speaker 2: moments of disruption. And I think what globalization showed is

893
00:54:59,040 --> 00:55:02,960
Speaker 2: that even the there were lots of benefits to the

894
00:55:03,000 --> 00:55:07,160
Speaker 2: Internet era. And look, it wasn't just trade agreements, it

895
00:55:07,320 --> 00:55:10,560
Speaker 2: was the Internet, it was globalization. It was just a

896
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:14,480
Speaker 2: smaller world, even though there were benefits to that. You

897
00:55:14,640 --> 00:55:19,400
Speaker 2: can't have an economy where you say, hey, for sixty

898
00:55:19,640 --> 00:55:22,960
Speaker 2: or seventy percent of you, this is nice because you're

899
00:55:22,960 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 2: getting lower prices and mode choices, but there's like a

900
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:29,560
Speaker 2: portion of you that are watching your community spiral down.

901
00:55:29,880 --> 00:55:32,920
Speaker 2: You're losing your hopes, your dreams, you're watching your father

902
00:55:33,040 --> 00:55:36,359
Speaker 2: or grandfather become an alcoholic. And so one of the

903
00:55:36,360 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 2: things that I talked about with economic dignity is you

904
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:44,480
Speaker 2: have got to have policies that aren't just good for

905
00:55:44,640 --> 00:55:48,880
Speaker 2: GDP or don't just lower prices for some people. Generally,

906
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 2: you have to have policies where everybody feels they're not

907
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:57,000
Speaker 2: being left behind. And you know, I wouldn't put as

908
00:55:57,040 --> 00:56:00,600
Speaker 2: much blame on anything Bill Clinton did, but I would

909
00:56:00,640 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 2: say that the accumulation of policies over twenty thirty years

910
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:11,520
Speaker 2: did not put in place the type of job creation

911
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:17,239
Speaker 2: focused protections, checks on abuse of corporate power that were

912
00:56:17,320 --> 00:56:21,240
Speaker 2: necessary to make sure everyone has economic dignity for all.

913
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:26,000
Speaker 2: So where AI becomes relevant is that globalization was a

914
00:56:26,040 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 2: bigger shock than we might the people might have known,

915
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 2: and the holes in our safety net or our insurance

916
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,640
Speaker 2: of economic dignity for all became more painful. I think

917
00:56:40,680 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 2: that's how you should look at AI. I don't think

918
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 2: AI is just another technology. I think AI is likely

919
00:56:47,360 --> 00:56:50,880
Speaker 2: to have a greater impact on job disruption and a

920
00:56:50,880 --> 00:56:54,160
Speaker 2: greater impact on maybe even the reduction of the amount

921
00:56:54,160 --> 00:56:58,680
Speaker 2: of jobs in the private sector than we've seen before.

922
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:02,239
Speaker 2: And so now is the time to me not to

923
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:04,759
Speaker 2: sit back and watch and just say, oh my god,

924
00:57:04,880 --> 00:57:08,200
Speaker 2: tens of millions of jobs are being lost, or react

925
00:57:08,239 --> 00:57:12,040
Speaker 2: by just having a UBI program that writes checks to people.

926
00:57:12,440 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 2: Now is the time to start shaping, to make shaping

927
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:19,720
Speaker 2: our economy, and to me, I talked about three things

928
00:57:19,760 --> 00:57:23,800
Speaker 2: and what I wrote as an Economic Dignity Coumpact for AI. One,

929
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:28,680
Speaker 2: let's create more dignified jobs where we know we need more,

930
00:57:28,960 --> 00:57:32,840
Speaker 2: which are helping families with disability, helping people come out

931
00:57:33,080 --> 00:57:36,400
Speaker 2: of prison, helping people with addiction, helping people coach more

932
00:57:36,440 --> 00:57:40,440
Speaker 2: people on their healthcare. There may be twenty million missing

933
00:57:40,560 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 2: jobs there that could employ people, have a tighter labor market,

934
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 2: and deal with a lot of dislocation. That's number one.

935
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 2: We have the power to do that. We also have

936
00:57:51,800 --> 00:57:55,840
Speaker 2: the power to create tax incentives and subsidies that encourage

937
00:57:55,880 --> 00:58:00,600
Speaker 2: a company to augment use AI to augment jobs supplosed

938
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 2: to displace jobs or to redeploy people. We control our

939
00:58:05,360 --> 00:58:09,520
Speaker 2: economic policy. We should be doing that now. Secondly, going

940
00:58:09,560 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 2: to the point I talked about, let's create an economic

941
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 2: dignity floor for everyone, so that if there is a

942
00:58:16,200 --> 00:58:20,080
Speaker 2: worse disruption than we thought, unlike what happened in communities

943
00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:23,720
Speaker 2: and globalization, now we're going to have programs that focus

944
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:27,400
Speaker 2: on jobs, on helping people find new jobs, of making

945
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:31,120
Speaker 2: sure you still have health insurance. And then the third issue,

946
00:58:31,120 --> 00:58:32,840
Speaker 2: which is going to be the toughest than the one

947
00:58:32,880 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 2: that hits us, is what are those overall policies that

948
00:58:37,480 --> 00:58:41,000
Speaker 2: help people move to the next job. I just believe

949
00:58:41,040 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 2: that we are a country where we care about work,

950
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,680
Speaker 2: we care about contribution, we care about purpose and potential.

951
00:58:48,000 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 2: And what I don't like is that everybody's kind of

952
00:58:50,720 --> 00:58:52,920
Speaker 2: you know, you've got a White House that's just saying

953
00:58:52,960 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 2: go as fast as you can and geez if it

954
00:58:56,120 --> 00:59:01,400
Speaker 2: causes lots of disruption, kind of too bad, that that

955
00:59:01,440 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 2: can't be our policy. Our policy going forward must be

956
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:08,840
Speaker 2: AI is going to happen. You can't stop it all,

957
00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:13,080
Speaker 2: but you can have policies that shape to make sure

958
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 2: that it is serving the American people. What is the

959
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:21,120
Speaker 2: point of an economy having high growth and high productivity

960
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:25,720
Speaker 2: growth if it creates unhappiness for a large portion of

961
00:59:25,760 --> 00:59:29,240
Speaker 2: the economy. That's the focus I want to do in

962
00:59:29,280 --> 00:59:33,000
Speaker 2: my Economic Dignity lab is to focus on our goal.

963
00:59:33,040 --> 00:59:36,320
Speaker 2: What is our ultimate goal? Every day? It's not higher

964
00:59:36,360 --> 00:59:40,600
Speaker 2: GDP and productivity growth that makes people unhappy. It's higher

965
00:59:40,640 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 2: growth and productivity growth that leads to more opportunity, more dignity,

966
00:59:46,400 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 2: more upward mobility for more Americans.

967
00:59:49,240 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 1: You know, Shared Brown's going to love the fact that

968
00:59:51,080 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 1: you use the word dignity so much. The dignity of

969
00:59:53,640 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 1: work myself.

970
00:59:56,800 --> 01:00:00,560
Speaker 2: I wrote the book twenty twenty. The title is Economic Dignity.

971
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:04,000
Speaker 2: So I've got here. It is right here, I copyrighting

972
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 2: the word dignity. Take that, Take that, take that, share it.

973
01:00:18,160 --> 01:00:23,320
Speaker 2: Let me get you out of here on this. When

974
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:27,520
Speaker 2: is a company too big to regulate? And when is

975
01:00:27,640 --> 01:00:30,160
Speaker 2: when do you fear that a company's becomes bigger than

976
01:00:30,160 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 2: a nation state? And what happens there? I mean, like

977
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 2: I used to think of this as sort of perverted

978
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,400
Speaker 2: Bond James Bond plot.

979
01:00:38,120 --> 01:00:42,479
Speaker 1: Lines, and but the fact of the matter is these

980
01:00:43,080 --> 01:00:48,920
Speaker 1: huge companies are bigger than most nation states. And what

981
01:00:48,960 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 1: does that mean right that they're they're that that's it

982
01:00:55,200 --> 01:01:00,520
Speaker 1: is different than what we've had. And does our government

983
01:01:00,560 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: of a responsibility from preventing that or do you let

984
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:05,080
Speaker 1: capitalism be capitalism?

985
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:08,040
Speaker 2: Well, again, I think it goes back to the tests

986
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:15,160
Speaker 2: that we have before. The purpose of structuring our economy

987
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 2: is not for the companies themselves. It's not for the

988
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:26,160
Speaker 2: CEOs themselves. It's to have an economy that benefits people's

989
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 2: lives and gives people more opportunity. So when companies start,

990
01:01:33,160 --> 01:01:38,920
Speaker 2: when companies get so large or integrated that they I

991
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 2: think there's two things you have to worry about. One,

992
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:44,760
Speaker 2: when you don't have true competition, you know, I mean

993
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:50,160
Speaker 2: Adam Smith was not writing about a market economy where

994
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:54,040
Speaker 2: you know, for big AI or big tech companies controlled everything.

995
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:57,919
Speaker 2: It was about how to have competition and why competition

996
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 2: would through some form of process he said invisible hand,

997
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:08,120
Speaker 2: I'll say a little more notable hand. Make sure that

998
01:02:08,160 --> 01:02:12,400
Speaker 2: it's benefiting everybody. So one when is that working? The

999
01:02:12,480 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 2: other way? Now, I know a lot of people aren't

1000
01:02:15,120 --> 01:02:19,680
Speaker 2: always happy with everything Lena Khan did, but I'm more

1001
01:02:19,720 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 2: of a fan of hers, and I think that what

1002
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:25,320
Speaker 2: she did and looking at big Tech and Amazon, was

1003
01:02:25,360 --> 01:02:29,880
Speaker 2: to look and say, in reality, are these large companies

1004
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 2: suppressing competition and hurting people or are they actually encouraging it?

1005
01:02:35,480 --> 01:02:37,840
Speaker 2: So you should have that test. And then the second

1006
01:02:37,840 --> 01:02:41,800
Speaker 2: test is a democracy test. If the size and power

1007
01:02:41,880 --> 01:02:48,480
Speaker 2: of companies mean that they are disproportionately determining our policies

1008
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 2: as opposed to our democratic processes based on what's best

1009
01:02:53,080 --> 01:02:56,480
Speaker 2: for people. Then I think that's the problem.

1010
01:02:56,720 --> 01:02:58,560
Speaker 1: So for me, it's not you know, you've been on

1011
01:02:58,640 --> 01:02:59,320
Speaker 1: K Street lately.

1012
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 2: It's not just the size, but what is the impact?

1013
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 2: And I think the reason.

1014
01:03:05,040 --> 01:03:07,000
Speaker 1: How do you say that? I would say arguably right

1015
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 1: now that the between there are two industries that are

1016
01:03:10,800 --> 01:03:13,680
Speaker 1: over indexed in Washington and they seem to get whatever

1017
01:03:13,720 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 1: they want because of how much campaign money they give,

1018
01:03:16,600 --> 01:03:19,160
Speaker 1: and that is the crypto and AI.

1019
01:03:19,960 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 2: Well, I think there's a lot to be said for that,

1020
01:03:23,600 --> 01:03:27,080
Speaker 2: and I think, look, I think there's always been big

1021
01:03:27,160 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 2: companies who use political contributions and lobbying power to get

1022
01:03:33,760 --> 01:03:37,560
Speaker 2: what they want at the benefit at the expense of

1023
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,120
Speaker 2: what might be the common good, and that is a

1024
01:03:40,160 --> 01:03:44,640
Speaker 2: real problem. I think what's a little more concerning on

1025
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:48,840
Speaker 2: the AI front, though, is the idea that there could

1026
01:03:48,840 --> 01:03:54,040
Speaker 2: be four or five or six companies that actually are

1027
01:03:54,320 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 2: almost determining the structure of the economy, not just benefiting

1028
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:03,560
Speaker 2: their company at the expense of some higher prices for

1029
01:04:03,680 --> 01:04:08,640
Speaker 2: other people, which is itself very problematic, but where it

1030
01:04:08,720 --> 01:04:12,920
Speaker 2: looks like they're determining policy. And I do see sometimes

1031
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 2: when I look at the White House, you know, I

1032
01:04:15,520 --> 01:04:21,720
Speaker 2: do wonder our six or seven companies contributing whispering in

1033
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:25,840
Speaker 2: the ear. Are you seeing companies, you know, whether it's

1034
01:04:25,920 --> 01:04:32,360
Speaker 2: crypto or AI or other places, actually part of deals

1035
01:04:32,360 --> 01:04:37,919
Speaker 2: that are actually benefiting in a more corrupt way individuals

1036
01:04:37,920 --> 01:04:42,120
Speaker 2: associated with the administration. That is very concerning. Now, look,

1037
01:04:42,240 --> 01:04:45,600
Speaker 2: some of the heads of these big AI companies have

1038
01:04:45,880 --> 01:04:49,160
Speaker 2: notably gone out and said, we need to think about

1039
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:53,240
Speaker 2: what's best for the country. But the fact is that

1040
01:04:53,280 --> 01:04:56,440
Speaker 2: when I still look at what's happening every day, it

1041
01:04:56,480 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 2: looks like rush fast, hygien growth, high wealth, get things

1042
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:07,200
Speaker 2: built as quickly as possible, and those discussions about what's

1043
01:05:07,240 --> 01:05:10,920
Speaker 2: best for jobs or people or the economic dignity of

1044
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,040
Speaker 2: people is being lost. And my prediction is going to

1045
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:17,560
Speaker 2: what you said at the beginning, is if people don't

1046
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:21,640
Speaker 2: start talking about how to shape AI so that it

1047
01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:27,120
Speaker 2: is benefiting everyone, they're going to get a backlash that

1048
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:31,880
Speaker 2: that might be even harsher than is desired.

1049
01:05:31,960 --> 01:05:34,960
Speaker 1: So we never do prevent very well so it's.

1050
01:05:34,840 --> 01:05:39,640
Speaker 2: Benefiting everyone, and not have this perception that the White

1051
01:05:39,640 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 2: House listens to five or six major companies and they

1052
01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:47,760
Speaker 2: not the American people are determining what the what the

1053
01:05:47,800 --> 01:05:49,720
Speaker 2: path of our economic future will be.

1054
01:05:50,760 --> 01:05:53,440
Speaker 1: Well, take me back to your time in the Biden

1055
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:56,880
Speaker 1: White House when these AI companies were looking for more

1056
01:05:56,880 --> 01:06:03,000
Speaker 1: government assistance to excel rate what they were doing. Did

1057
01:06:03,040 --> 01:06:06,680
Speaker 1: you feel like they had a gun to the head, like, well,

1058
01:06:06,800 --> 01:06:08,360
Speaker 1: you know, you either help us out here we're going

1059
01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:10,400
Speaker 1: with the other guys, or I.

1060
01:06:10,320 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 2: Can't you know, at this time of that life, I

1061
01:06:13,080 --> 01:06:16,080
Speaker 2: wasn't the National Economic consol Director, so I was running

1062
01:06:16,080 --> 01:06:17,320
Speaker 2: the American Rescue.

1063
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:18,920
Speaker 1: You didn't really have a good you didn't have a

1064
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:19,840
Speaker 1: good window into that.

1065
01:06:20,000 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 2: With the air I didn't see as much. But I

1066
01:06:22,920 --> 01:06:27,440
Speaker 2: never had the feeling. No, I never had that that feeling.

1067
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:31,280
Speaker 2: And to be quite honest, I think in some ways,

1068
01:06:31,800 --> 01:06:35,280
Speaker 2: the Trump White House has invited that, you know. I

1069
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:39,000
Speaker 2: think I don't think that the AI companies would feel like,

1070
01:06:39,720 --> 01:06:43,880
Speaker 2: oh my, if you didn't do exactly what Joe Biden wanted,

1071
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:46,640
Speaker 2: he was going to go out and punish you, or

1072
01:06:46,680 --> 01:06:51,280
Speaker 2: single you out, or call in the Justice Department, the

1073
01:06:51,320 --> 01:06:55,360
Speaker 2: criminal part of the Justice Department on you. I think that,

1074
01:06:57,000 --> 01:06:59,800
Speaker 2: you know, I think what you've seen more recently is

1075
01:07:00,240 --> 01:07:02,800
Speaker 2: really the most unattractive thing I think I've seen in

1076
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 2: my political life, which is that the most well off

1077
01:07:06,840 --> 01:07:11,040
Speaker 2: people and the most well off companies are the first

1078
01:07:11,080 --> 01:07:17,800
Speaker 2: ones to take a knee and to and to do

1079
01:07:17,880 --> 01:07:21,560
Speaker 2: whatever this administration wants. So as much as I agree

1080
01:07:22,000 --> 01:07:25,720
Speaker 2: that we need to be concerned about the lobbying and

1081
01:07:25,800 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 2: political power of major companies and are determining the path

1082
01:07:31,080 --> 01:07:34,920
Speaker 2: on AI, in this situation, it's a little bit like

1083
01:07:35,040 --> 01:07:39,480
Speaker 2: the White House kind of invited it, you know, a

1084
01:07:39,560 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 2: little bit of give money.

1085
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:43,600
Speaker 1: As I said, you know he's not.

1086
01:07:44,600 --> 01:07:45,760
Speaker 2: And you'll have influence.

1087
01:07:45,880 --> 01:07:49,120
Speaker 1: And if not everybody knows, everybody knows how it works.

1088
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:51,200
Speaker 1: You write a big enough check to the right entity,

1089
01:07:51,280 --> 01:07:52,160
Speaker 1: you're going to get a meeting.

1090
01:07:52,640 --> 01:07:54,880
Speaker 2: So I just don't think you would have seen that

1091
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:58,680
Speaker 2: kind of behavior, you know, towards the Biden administration, because

1092
01:07:58,720 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 2: one it wouldn't have been tolerant but too On the

1093
01:08:01,080 --> 01:08:06,280
Speaker 2: other hand, we wouldn't have been out there telling American companies,

1094
01:08:07,640 --> 01:08:12,480
Speaker 2: you know, do as we say, or or American universities

1095
01:08:12,560 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 2: or American law firms that you have to get in

1096
01:08:15,520 --> 01:08:18,400
Speaker 2: line or there's going to be consequences. They may not

1097
01:08:18,439 --> 01:08:21,920
Speaker 2: have liked our climate policy, they may have disagreed with

1098
01:08:21,960 --> 01:08:26,080
Speaker 2: some anti trust policy, but the notion of you contribute

1099
01:08:26,120 --> 01:08:29,920
Speaker 2: and get in line, or you will face consequences. Was

1100
01:08:30,080 --> 01:08:34,080
Speaker 2: just not part of the bid. No Harris administration.

1101
01:08:34,640 --> 01:08:35,800
Speaker 1: All right, I'm going to get you out of here

1102
01:08:35,800 --> 01:08:37,519
Speaker 1: on what I think is the toughest question. I'm gonna

1103
01:08:37,520 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 1: ask you, Jim Harball. Good feelings are bad feelings when

1104
01:08:43,120 --> 01:08:44,599
Speaker 1: you think about Michigan football.

1105
01:08:45,680 --> 01:08:46,439
Speaker 2: Good feelings.

1106
01:08:47,920 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 1: You know, you look at this situation because you know,

1107
01:08:51,360 --> 01:08:54,439
Speaker 1: are you do you wish he were still there? Or

1108
01:08:54,439 --> 01:08:56,519
Speaker 1: do you feel like, Nope, we got our title and

1109
01:08:56,600 --> 01:08:57,320
Speaker 1: I'm glad he left.

1110
01:08:58,280 --> 01:09:01,400
Speaker 2: I think that for a while of reasons it made

1111
01:09:01,439 --> 01:09:05,320
Speaker 2: sense for him to go. But look, I've been just

1112
01:09:05,600 --> 01:09:10,559
Speaker 2: an incredible Michigan football, Michigan basketball, Detroit Lions, Detroit Tigers,

1113
01:09:10,560 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 2: Detroit Pistons fan for six nice runners.

1114
01:09:14,680 --> 01:09:16,840
Speaker 1: It's finally coming together six seven.

1115
01:09:17,080 --> 01:09:20,559
Speaker 2: So I've never had a football team in the I've

1116
01:09:20,640 --> 01:09:24,280
Speaker 2: never had the Lions in the super Bowl, the Tigers.

1117
01:09:24,320 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 2: We've had two World Series in my life. So let's

1118
01:09:26,880 --> 01:09:31,320
Speaker 2: just say I'm not I'm more like the AI startup

1119
01:09:31,439 --> 01:09:34,960
Speaker 2: than Navidia. You know, Navidia is like the Patriot fans.

1120
01:09:35,000 --> 01:09:39,120
Speaker 2: They have so much, they have so much. But I

1121
01:09:39,200 --> 01:09:45,000
Speaker 2: will say that two thousand that two thousand and three,

1122
01:09:45,080 --> 01:09:49,880
Speaker 2: two thousand and four. I mean that NCAA championship game,

1123
01:09:50,400 --> 01:09:53,320
Speaker 2: being there with my family at Michigan Ohio State, being

1124
01:09:53,320 --> 01:09:56,280
Speaker 2: there at the Rose Bawl when they beat Alabama. I

1125
01:09:56,280 --> 01:09:59,000
Speaker 2: think that was kind of like you said, your whole life,

1126
01:09:59,120 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 2: if we ever won an national championship outright like that,

1127
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:05,160
Speaker 2: I won't ask for anything more. I feel like I

1128
01:10:05,200 --> 01:10:07,560
Speaker 2: have to honor that for a few more years.

1129
01:10:07,760 --> 01:10:11,280
Speaker 1: And and you you never felt like the ninety seven

1130
01:10:11,400 --> 01:10:13,960
Speaker 1: title was just because you split it with Nebraska. It

1131
01:10:14,000 --> 01:10:15,040
Speaker 1: never felt perfect.

1132
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:19,880
Speaker 2: It did never feel quite as perfect, though I was

1133
01:10:20,040 --> 01:10:22,920
Speaker 2: very happy, and I still to this day. You ready

1134
01:10:22,920 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 2: for this. When Michigan came for their their ceremony with Bill,

1135
01:10:27,360 --> 01:10:27,559
Speaker 2: did you.

1136
01:10:27,560 --> 01:10:30,600
Speaker 1: Guys invite them both? By the way, that Clinton the.

1137
01:10:30,600 --> 01:10:34,920
Speaker 2: Same day, but they had separate ceremonies. Interesting and the

1138
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,240
Speaker 2: and the Bill Clinton and the Michigan one was right

1139
01:10:38,320 --> 01:10:41,400
Speaker 2: before a budget meeting, so they gave Bill Clinton a

1140
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:45,200
Speaker 2: hat that he wore, and he came into the budget meeting.

1141
01:10:45,200 --> 01:10:47,599
Speaker 2: He was in the cabinet office and the first thing

1142
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:50,639
Speaker 2: he did was fling me the cap. So I still

1143
01:10:50,760 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 2: have the hat that the ninety seven Michigan football team

1144
01:10:55,280 --> 01:10:59,599
Speaker 2: presented to him, and I also had the benefit of

1145
01:11:00,160 --> 01:11:05,479
Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh brought the team to d C during the

1146
01:11:05,520 --> 01:11:09,120
Speaker 2: Biden administration. I got invited to go over and be

1147
01:11:09,240 --> 01:11:11,559
Speaker 2: the dinner speaker at one of their whole dinners and

1148
01:11:11,640 --> 01:11:14,760
Speaker 2: hang out with him and them, and so oh, he

1149
01:11:15,000 --> 01:11:17,720
Speaker 2: will always be thankful for Jim Harbaugh for that. You know.

1150
01:11:17,760 --> 01:11:19,920
Speaker 1: It's funny about Jim Harbaugh, and I take it you've

1151
01:11:19,960 --> 01:11:21,600
Speaker 1: gotten to know him a little bit. A lot of

1152
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:25,519
Speaker 1: people try to pigeonhole his politics. I'm guessing he's like

1153
01:11:25,600 --> 01:11:28,240
Speaker 1: most Americans. It's not as predictable as people try to

1154
01:11:28,280 --> 01:11:30,920
Speaker 1: make them out to be. He's pretty passionate on some issues,

1155
01:11:30,960 --> 01:11:34,400
Speaker 1: like I know, reproductive rights and things like that, and

1156
01:11:34,479 --> 01:11:36,640
Speaker 1: so people just assume he's in one place, but he

1157
01:11:36,680 --> 01:11:41,160
Speaker 1: seems like he's genuinely like your typical Midwestern independent. There's

1158
01:11:41,200 --> 01:11:43,040
Speaker 1: a little bit of you don't quite know where he's

1159
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:43,519
Speaker 1: coming down.

1160
01:11:43,600 --> 01:11:45,719
Speaker 2: Well, you know, yes, And it goes to the question

1161
01:11:45,800 --> 01:11:48,400
Speaker 2: you asked me before. I think people who sit around

1162
01:11:48,439 --> 01:11:52,639
Speaker 2: and think, oh, should we be angry, populist or centrist,

1163
01:11:53,000 --> 01:11:55,200
Speaker 2: it's not the right way to think. Think about real

1164
01:11:55,280 --> 01:11:58,280
Speaker 2: people what's best for their lives. What's best for their family.

1165
01:11:58,640 --> 01:12:01,040
Speaker 2: That's gonna I think, as we said, that's going to

1166
01:12:01,080 --> 01:12:04,160
Speaker 2: make for some populist anger, but it's but you should

1167
01:12:04,200 --> 01:12:07,160
Speaker 2: think about their lives. And I think, yes, Jim Harbaugh

1168
01:12:07,200 --> 01:12:09,560
Speaker 2: is one of those people that's a bit more complicated.

1169
01:12:09,640 --> 01:12:13,200
Speaker 2: It's very clear his wife is very pro life and

1170
01:12:13,240 --> 01:12:17,160
Speaker 2: he's respected. That is the other hand. The real highlight

1171
01:12:17,360 --> 01:12:19,880
Speaker 2: of my you know, one of the highlights of my

1172
01:12:20,640 --> 01:12:24,120
Speaker 2: time in the Bide administration was I was speaking to

1173
01:12:24,240 --> 01:12:29,200
Speaker 2: the Legal Service Legal services, you know, the people who

1174
01:12:29,360 --> 01:12:35,080
Speaker 2: represent the poor, and as they brought, knowing my background,

1175
01:12:35,080 --> 01:12:39,040
Speaker 2: they brought Jim Harbaugh on to introduce me. Why because

1176
01:12:39,200 --> 01:12:44,360
Speaker 2: Jim Harbaugh has been a huge advocate of legal services

1177
01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:48,320
Speaker 2: for the poor and is actually on the National Advisory Board.

1178
01:12:48,880 --> 01:12:51,960
Speaker 2: So yeah, he's a little more complicated, and I think

1179
01:12:52,000 --> 01:12:54,680
Speaker 2: a lot of Americans are a little more complicated and

1180
01:12:54,840 --> 01:12:55,760
Speaker 2: exactly that way.

1181
01:12:56,040 --> 01:12:59,519
Speaker 1: So have you become LA's only Chargers fan now, because

1182
01:12:59,520 --> 01:13:01,479
Speaker 1: I know there's people are looking for Charger fans in

1183
01:13:01,600 --> 01:13:02,799
Speaker 1: LA if they find them.

1184
01:13:03,360 --> 01:13:06,840
Speaker 2: Now, I'm a Lions fan. I'm lucky enough to kind

1185
01:13:06,880 --> 01:13:10,640
Speaker 2: of know a couple of the owners of the Commanders.

1186
01:13:10,680 --> 01:13:13,320
Speaker 2: So I think if I have a second team now

1187
01:13:14,920 --> 01:13:18,080
Speaker 2: it's the Commanders, but first team first and always will

1188
01:13:18,120 --> 01:13:19,679
Speaker 2: always be the Detroit Lions.

1189
01:13:20,000 --> 01:13:22,760
Speaker 1: Well look, it's a you know I. The only good

1190
01:13:22,760 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 1: news for you living out there in la Is you

1191
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:26,120
Speaker 1: might be able to see Tarik Schooble pitch as a

1192
01:13:26,160 --> 01:13:28,840
Speaker 1: Dodger before the season ends, which will really piss you off.

1193
01:13:28,880 --> 01:13:30,720
Speaker 2: The only good news for me being out in la

1194
01:13:31,160 --> 01:13:35,160
Speaker 2: Is One word weather, second word weather, third word weather.

1195
01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:38,960
Speaker 1: Jane, It's always fun to talk with you. Good to

1196
01:13:39,000 --> 01:13:40,639
Speaker 1: catch Thanks all right, my friend.

1197
01:13:40,800 --> 01:13:41,160
Speaker 2: Bye bye,