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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough?

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, splendid sixteen

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Speaker 2: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 2: percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that shop with mind?

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Speaker 3: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 4: That's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements, the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 3: The one.

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Speaker 2: It's left too, the wide eyed, drilled bibus.

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Speaker 1: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 5: Hello, ey one, Welcome back to Wondergol, the soccer betting

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Speaker 5: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Eba.

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Speaker 5: Joining me as always will be my friends and colleagues

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Speaker 5: BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo. We had a lot of

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Speaker 5: fun on our last episode covering Premier League Match Week

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Speaker 5: five until once again, Everden spoiled everything. But this episode

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Speaker 5: will be a lot better because there is no effort

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Speaker 5: to talk about in the Champions League.

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Speaker 1: Somehow they didn't qualify.

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Speaker 5: But we'll go through match week one Tuesday and Wednesday.

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Speaker 5: We're gonna spend some time on the matches that we

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Speaker 5: have plays, we'll touch on everything, but we'll spend the

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Speaker 5: majority of our time giving out the.

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Speaker 1: Games we feel have the most value.

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Speaker 5: So unfortunately, I don't think we'll be deep diving into

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Speaker 5: Barcelona and Royal and Twerp too much. But maybe we'll

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Speaker 5: sprinkle in a little bit of analysis. But before we

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Speaker 5: go through all sixteen matches, a reminder that Wonder Goal

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Speaker 5: is proudly presented by Bet three six five, and Bet

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Speaker 5: three six five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that every

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Speaker 5: sport should be epic every match, every game, every goal,

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Speaker 5: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 5: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 5: you sign up today with Code Action and you'll get

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Speaker 5: three hundred and sixty five dollars in bonus bets when

41
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Speaker 5: you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment,

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Speaker 5: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five, you must

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Speaker 5: be twenty one or older. You must be present in Colorado, Iowa,

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Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia in the United States. And

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Speaker 5: if you or someone you know has a gambling problem

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Speaker 5: and wants help, please call one eight hundred gambler in Colorado,

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Speaker 5: New Jersey, Ohio and Virginia or one eight hundred bets

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Speaker 5: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply. BJ and Anthony

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Speaker 5: will start on Tuesday, and we'll start with the twelve

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Speaker 5: forty five kickoff with AC Milan. They're hosting Newcastle in

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Speaker 5: what is essentially a pick them. On the three way line,

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Speaker 5: it's plus one fifty five for Milan Newcastle plus one

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Speaker 5: sixty two in the draw is plus two sixty. I

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Speaker 5: like to draw here, and I think we're kind of

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Speaker 5: all on the same page Anthony that this feels like

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Speaker 5: it could be a pretty like lumbering match.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, entirely. I think that Newcastle, when is given the opportunity,

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Speaker 3: wants to slow games to a crawl. They want to

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Speaker 3: be conservative at heart, and you kind of saw that

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Speaker 3: against Brentford and in stretches of their other matches. Even

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Speaker 3: when they had the lead against Liverpool up a man,

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Speaker 3: you know, they weren't taking a lot of chances in possession.

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Speaker 3: They were prioritizing having a very good defense. And it's

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Speaker 3: a defense that I think is very very good, and

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Speaker 3: they've shown that over the last calendar year in the

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Speaker 3: Premier League, and they've shown that when they're healthy and

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Speaker 3: their fullback four is available that they're going to be

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Speaker 3: very difficult to break down. And Milan is a team

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Speaker 3: that isn't going to take a ton of chances out

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Speaker 3: of possession or in possession either. They kind of just

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Speaker 3: you know, they'll have some defensive possession. They're very comfortable

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Speaker 3: playing without the ball. They actually got ripped apart against

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Speaker 3: Inter in those transition moments on Saturday, and that was

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Speaker 3: what I was worried about with them with that matchup,

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Speaker 3: and this is not the same thing here because I

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Speaker 3: think that they're going to be even more cautious and

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Speaker 3: I don't think Newcastle has the same level of attacking

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Speaker 3: talent that that Inter team did, you know, to Rom

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Speaker 3: basically one man showing the first two goals and setting

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Speaker 3: them up. You know, I think that both teams lean

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Speaker 3: toward conservative. In this group, it's so important not to

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Speaker 3: lose matches and to to kind of keep things tight

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Speaker 3: that this game is priced way too high to the

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Speaker 3: over given how much these two attacks are, you know,

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Speaker 3: outside of Rafael Liao. And you know, I do expect

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Speaker 3: Esok to start because they rotated him. That does mean

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Speaker 3: Wilson won't start. I think al Maron's going to start,

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Speaker 3: Like I think how has made some decisions on Saturday,

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Speaker 3: on Saturday's match against Brentford that suggests that he's going

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Speaker 3: to play the al Moron for his defensive work. Esac

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Speaker 3: up top no Callum Wilson and Anthony Gordon, and I

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Speaker 3: just don't really think that's their best attacking lineup. So

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Speaker 3: I think they're going to struggle to break down Milan

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Speaker 3: and I think that, you know, if you can slow

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Speaker 3: down Leao at all, this Milan attack just isn't that good.

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Speaker 3: So I think this is going to be a grinded

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Speaker 3: out kind of game. I agree with you know, the

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Speaker 3: draw having some value, and I think there's a value

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Speaker 3: in the under two and a half at plus one twenty,

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Speaker 3: this should be right around two for me. So the

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Speaker 3: fact that I'm getting plus one twenty, I'm gonna take

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Speaker 3: that and embt it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I like to draw.

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Speaker 5: It's plus two sixty. I just think it sets up

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Speaker 5: really well. Like you said, it's two teams that are

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Speaker 5: okay with walking out of this match. I think with

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Speaker 5: a with a point to considering, this is group f

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Speaker 5: this is the group of death. I don't it's it's

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Speaker 5: basically in the matches when you're not playing PSG like

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Speaker 5: you don't want to, you're gonna play to get whatever

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Speaker 5: you can out of it. I think if you're that's

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Speaker 5: gonna be the mentality of Newcastle, Milan and Dortmund. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: it just has all the makings. And you look at

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Speaker 5: the the underlying metrics two for for Newcastle, when you

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Speaker 5: take the teams kind of not including some of the

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Speaker 5: the drags of the Premier.

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Speaker 1: League, they are the.

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Speaker 5: Them An Arsenal are two low event teams, uh in

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Speaker 5: that kind of top twelve when you look at x

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Speaker 5: G four and again. So I just don't think I

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Speaker 5: can see either team running away with this match. So

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Speaker 5: I think the draw is going to be in play

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Speaker 5: the whole way out BJ.

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Speaker 1: You do lean one way though, I do, and.

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Speaker 4: I think there is some value on Newcastle drawno Bett

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Speaker 4: at plus one or excuse me, at even money. The

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Speaker 4: interesting thing that I see in this type of matchup

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Speaker 4: is I agree with that AC Milan is going to

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Speaker 4: stay very, very passive. If you look at their metrics

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Speaker 4: from Syria so far this season, they have the lowest

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Speaker 4: amount of high turnovers forced of any team in Italy,

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Speaker 4: which is kind of weird considering the teams that they've played.

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Speaker 4: Obviously they've played Inter, but they've also played some mid

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Speaker 4: to low table teams. So it just shows you how

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Speaker 4: passive Pioli has been with his low block. And so

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Speaker 4: now I'm concerned if Ace Milan is not going to

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Speaker 4: be primarily transitional, I don't know how they're going to

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Speaker 4: build up against the Newcastle press. We've seen it time

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Speaker 4: and time again. The Newcastle has the most physical press

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Speaker 4: and the most physical defense to play through in the

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Speaker 4: Premier League. You don't see that type of physicality in

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Speaker 4: Syria a most weekend and week out. And even if

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Speaker 4: you look at the teams that AC Milan played throughout

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Speaker 4: the Champions League last season, in the knockout round, they

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Speaker 4: played Tottenham, who was a very passive team. They played Napoli,

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Speaker 4: who was a decent counter pressing team, but they're not

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Speaker 4: physical like Newcastle is, and then they got worked pretty

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Speaker 4: badly by Inter and then obviously you know this past

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Speaker 4: weekend they Inter beat them pretty bad again, So Newcastle

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Speaker 4: big for them. Sven Bowmen played this weekend, so they

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Speaker 4: have their fall back four healthy and even if you

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Speaker 4: look just from a mathematical standpoint, Newcastle obviously last season

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Speaker 4: plus point eight actually differential in the Premier League a

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Speaker 4: CI Milan plus point five actually differential in Syria A.

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Speaker 4: By my power ranks, using UA coefficients and total transfer

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Speaker 4: value for each league, I have England rated half a

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Speaker 4: goal for ninety better than Italy at this point, so

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Speaker 4: I think even if you're accounting for home field advantage

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Speaker 4: for a cy Milan, I think they're still good enough

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Speaker 4: value here on Newcastle, which I think is more talented

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Speaker 4: team than a cy Milan two. So it's Newcastle drawn

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Speaker 4: on about it, even money for me, who I think

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Speaker 4: should be a slight favorite here on the road. Again,

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Speaker 4: say Simon, all right.

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Speaker 5: We'll stay in the group of death, that is Group F.

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Speaker 5: So that's the twelve forty five kickoff. This is a

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Speaker 5: three pm Eastern time. The other twelve forty five is

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Speaker 5: Young Boys and Leipzig. So pretty good bet that most

169
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Speaker 5: eyeballs are going to be on Milan and Newcastle in

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Speaker 5: Newcastle's return to your European football. But for this one,

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Speaker 5: PSG is hosting Dortmund. Their odds on minus one thirty

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Speaker 5: four in Pari, Dortmund traveling at plus three fifty and

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Speaker 5: the draw plus two to eighty in.

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Speaker 1: Terms of results.

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Speaker 5: PSG struggling a bit in legal Hondou Louis Enrique, but

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Speaker 5: I'm not too concerned. Everything kind of looks like it's

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Speaker 5: going to check out and be okay, Anthony, you are

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Speaker 5: pretty high on PSG in terms of the big picture

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Speaker 5: here in the Champions League, despite being in the Group

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Speaker 5: of death, and you are the only one here that

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Speaker 5: has a bet to give out on PSG in Dortmund.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna be Joe Square Barney at the bar

183
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Speaker 3: and I'm gonna bet they over in this game three goals.

184
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Speaker 3: I like what I'm seeing from this PSG attack. And

185
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Speaker 3: I know that you know, Enrique historically and traditionally has

186
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Speaker 3: been a little bit maybe two possession heavy and passive

187
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Speaker 3: at times, and that's been a problem when they've gone

188
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Speaker 3: up against good defensive sides who are able to just

189
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Speaker 3: kind of sit off and let them have the ball.

190
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Speaker 3: But there is zero resistance in this Dortmund defense. There

191
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Speaker 3: is zero defensive midfield ball winning. They do not stop

192
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Speaker 3: you from getting into the penalty area. And if you

193
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Speaker 3: give me the quality of attackers in this game, with Mbappe,

194
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Speaker 3: Ramos and Dembele on one side, I think PSG's attack

195
00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,760
Speaker 3: has a chance to run wild here, because my biggest

196
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Speaker 3: concern about PSG is honestly like the inexperience and lack

197
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Speaker 3: of midfield solidity. Biggest concern about Dortmund is the lack

198
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Speaker 3: of midfields little lea. So this has the potential to

199
00:10:04,160 --> 00:10:07,880
Speaker 3: be very back and forth and Dortmann's attack without belling him,

200
00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:09,520
Speaker 3: you know, I think is going to go through some

201
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,920
Speaker 3: drawing pains, but they, you know, showing signs of coming

202
00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:13,640
Speaker 3: out of it. But this is a Dortmund team that

203
00:10:13,679 --> 00:10:16,319
Speaker 3: has now conceded at least one expected goal in every

204
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Speaker 3: Bundesliga match, and they have not played any good teams

205
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Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga. Like Friburg is the best team that

206
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Speaker 3: they've played from an attacking perspective, and I would not

207
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Speaker 3: consider them to be anything more than just like a

208
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:30,800
Speaker 3: slightly above average attack. They've played hide Inheim and completely

209
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Speaker 3: Blue the Leady, they struggled with Bocam and Transition a lot,

210
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Speaker 3: and Cologne had twenty six touches in their penalty area.

211
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Speaker 3: So all of these teams, by the way, Cologne still

212
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Speaker 3: without a win, Bokum still without a win as far

213
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Speaker 3: as I'm concerned, and then hide Inheim. I believe just

214
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Speaker 3: got their first win today, so you know they're playing

215
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Speaker 3: all these bad teams in the Bundesliga and giving up

216
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Speaker 3: chance at a chance at a chance. Now in Boppe,

217
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Speaker 3: you know they go to Paris face in Boppe, and

218
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Speaker 3: I don't really think dortmannd does enough to press top

219
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Speaker 3: PSG from pinging balls to Killian all game long. So

220
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Speaker 3: give me the over. I think Dortman gets on the

221
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Speaker 3: board two here, so I'm gonna go with that. Normally

222
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Speaker 3: I like to bet the under in the big match,

223
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Speaker 3: especially because the total tends to get inflated, and we've

224
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Speaker 3: seen this with PSG time and time again. But this

225
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Speaker 3: Dortmann team kind of plays right into their hands. So

226
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Speaker 3: over three goals.

227
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Speaker 5: I have like a smidget of interest in parlaying PSG

228
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Speaker 5: and Leipzig, but we'll see. I have a lot more

229
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Speaker 5: interest in this next match as this bjuick.

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Speaker 3: The market has come down a lot on PSG after

231
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Speaker 3: the lost Denis.

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Speaker 1: On Friday, which is crazy.

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Speaker 4: We were looking at it.

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Speaker 3: It was like minus one sixty five one sixty most places,

235
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Speaker 3: and that has come down to minus one thirty. If

236
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Speaker 3: we got to like one fifteen, I would fire on

237
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Speaker 3: PSG at home, but because I do think they're the

238
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Speaker 3: better team and they at home, so a little cheap,

239
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Speaker 3: but I will be passing on the side as of.

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Speaker 5: Now, all right, bj amy A're gonna be on the

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Speaker 5: same side of this one. Fire and Ord is hosting

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Speaker 5: Celtic minus one sixty seven for we the Nord who

243
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Speaker 5: come in in rip roaring form. Oh yeah, seventeen goals

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Speaker 5: in the last three games in the area of is

245
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Speaker 5: A outscoring opponents seventeen to three. Celtic, though, I mean

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Speaker 5: a little bit of a different beast than I think

247
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Speaker 5: what they're gonna see in the Netherlands, especially Brendan Rodgers.

248
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Speaker 5: Is Celtic right like it's going to be compact playing

249
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Speaker 5: to the situation which is around the road in the

250
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Speaker 5: Champions League. Let's try to get a point out out

251
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Speaker 5: of this match. Celtics plus four to fifty and the

252
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Speaker 5: Drugs three to one. I think Celtic's worth worth a shot. Yeah,

253
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Speaker 5: I just don't think that the difference between the two

254
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Speaker 5: teams is even with home field advantage, is wide enough

255
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Speaker 5: for this number to be this high. This isn't Celtic

256
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Speaker 5: traveling to a team playing out of one of the

257
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Speaker 5: big five leagues, right this is this is a different

258
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Speaker 5: situation and as good as uh the nord is playing

259
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Speaker 5: right now, it's just you gotta take the number here.

260
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Speaker 5: So I wonder if there's a little bit of po

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Speaker 5: typiness to Celtic a bit. I think a lot a

262
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Speaker 5: lot of folks, including BJ and myself next year in

263
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Speaker 5: the Champions League, thought they were going to be able

264
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Speaker 5: to punch up as a dog under.

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Speaker 3: A couple of times we always minutes against and then

266
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Speaker 3: out the door, yeah, and out the door.

267
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Speaker 5: And like the fact that, like the oh Celtics back

268
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Speaker 5: in the Champions League, narratives gone. I think that maybe

269
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Speaker 5: folks aren't just going to be looking at back them here,

270
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Speaker 5: especially on the road. But I'm in I think, uh

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Speaker 5: plus four fifties, fine BJ, what about you?

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Speaker 4: I mean, the biggest thing here for Fine Art is

273
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Speaker 4: that Santiago a Menez is going to be suspended for

274
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Speaker 4: the first two matches. For Fine Art, he is their

275
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Speaker 4: attack like he is everything to them. He is the

276
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Speaker 4: third of their expected goals so far this season. The

277
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Speaker 4: year at to VS. They even brought Uday, you know,

278
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Speaker 4: a Japanese striker in from Circle Bruges and he's injured

279
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Speaker 4: as well, so the attack for Fine Art is now

280
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Speaker 4: going to be a little limited. And then Koshu, who

281
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Speaker 4: was their best midfielder last season, has been sold to Benefica.

282
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Speaker 4: So the fight Ard team that we saw last season

283
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Speaker 4: is not necessarily going to be the team that we

284
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Speaker 4: see now in the Champions League. And their starting goalkeeper

285
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Speaker 4: is also injured for this match. And if there's anything

286
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Speaker 4: I know about Brendan Rodgers, like you said, Michael, adapting

287
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Speaker 4: to the situation, well, his Leicster teams in the Premier

288
00:14:17,920 --> 00:14:21,080
Speaker 4: League last season were very, very good and consistently top

289
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Speaker 4: five at playing through pressure and offensiveass per defensive action.

290
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Speaker 4: So even if Brendan Rodgers, you know, con size a

291
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Speaker 4: lot of possession then still tries to play out of

292
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Speaker 4: the back against slot who's going to obviously high press

293
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Speaker 4: them like with reckless abandonment, his Celtic team could play

294
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Speaker 4: through that pressure and they could give Fine Ord a

295
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Speaker 4: lot of problems if they get through the first line

296
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Speaker 4: of the press and get going in transition. So Ily

297
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Speaker 4: projected Fire and Order at minus one twenty four before

298
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Speaker 4: accounting for Santiago he Mendez's suspension, so Celtic plus one

299
00:14:48,200 --> 00:14:51,480
Speaker 4: is a good enough price for me to take our

300
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Speaker 4: good old buddy Brennan Rodgers once again.

301
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Speaker 3: When to the next round of fixtures is October third,

302
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Speaker 3: So I figured bta's got one more Celtic Bedan and

303
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Speaker 3: Er decides to give up. But I think the better

304
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Speaker 3: way to play fine artists to play them to advance.

305
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Speaker 3: I know he manages out look, I'm concerned about that too.

306
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Speaker 3: He's been so good for them. But this team is

307
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Speaker 3: putting up like unreal numbers in there to visy without him.

308
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Speaker 3: The XG difference table is wild and we'll talk about

309
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Speaker 3: PSV soon. But the early season XG data from last

310
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Speaker 3: year and then you know, getting into this year, it's

311
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Speaker 3: like ridiculously, ridiculously good stuff they have. They have blown

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Speaker 3: away the field thus far.

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Speaker 5: Not gonna happen on Tuesday, though, won't be blowing away

314
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Speaker 5: our friend Brandon Rogers. All right, we'll go quickly through

315
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Speaker 5: the rest of Tuesday slate someplace scattered in and out.

316
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Speaker 5: You guys wanted me to park some time to talk

317
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Speaker 5: about Lazio and ATLETTI. I'm passing Lazio at home plus

318
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Speaker 5: one ninety as an underdog.

319
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Speaker 1: Mauricio sorry and his Crazor. Yeah, they're not.

320
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Speaker 5: They're not doing so hot that he's coming in off

321
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Speaker 5: of a of an ugly loss to Valencia there plus

322
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Speaker 5: one fifty and the Druss plus two twenty here, it's

323
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Speaker 5: a pass for me. I just think it's pretty unappealing

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Speaker 5: on all sides, and we'll just be rooting on our

325
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Speaker 5: boy Diego as he marches his way to Champions League

326
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Speaker 5: glory in June, Anthony, But what did you want to

327
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Speaker 5: discuss about this match?

328
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Speaker 3: Well, I will have a full preview up for the

329
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Speaker 3: Action Network on Monday night, so you can read my

330
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Speaker 3: entire thoughts on this match, of which I will have many,

331
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Speaker 3: and you know what, we'll make that a tease, try

332
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Speaker 3: to save time here. But yeah, I think the market

333
00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:29,920
Speaker 3: on the side perspective is pretty much right. You know,

334
00:16:30,280 --> 00:16:33,040
Speaker 3: the market has moved toward Adletti. I think that we

335
00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 3: have two overvalued teams generally speaking, like relative to what

336
00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:40,080
Speaker 3: I think they are playing one another. How that manifests

337
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,360
Speaker 3: itself in the actual match. You know, we've seen ad

338
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,800
Speaker 3: Letti become a much more attacking team in Spain, you know,

339
00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:52,600
Speaker 3: the last eight months. But a big part of me

340
00:16:52,640 --> 00:16:54,360
Speaker 3: thinks that the Champions League version of this team is

341
00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,760
Speaker 3: still going to play kind of like last year and

342
00:16:57,360 --> 00:16:59,000
Speaker 3: what we saw in the fall, which was a very

343
00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 3: anemic attack, some pretty good defending, and they got a

344
00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:04,959
Speaker 3: little unlucky to not advance. And I think that this

345
00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,360
Speaker 3: group is so open. Maybe I might add some fine

346
00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:09,879
Speaker 3: order to win the group two. So we'll see. But

347
00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,440
Speaker 3: I'm really starting to believe in this fine ord team

348
00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:13,600
Speaker 3: for better or worse.

349
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Speaker 1: Okay, BJ, you're going to do it. Yeah, you're gonna

350
00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:18,800
Speaker 1: do it.

351
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:23,920
Speaker 5: City is a prohibitive favorite, obviously at home against favorite Belgrade. Yeah,

352
00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,840
Speaker 5: it's minus eighteen hundred on the three way line, Belgrade

353
00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:28,160
Speaker 5: to one.

354
00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,480
Speaker 1: I know it's.

355
00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,080
Speaker 3: Not even close to good enough. I need like fifty

356
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:34,600
Speaker 3: to think about it.

357
00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:36,680
Speaker 5: As I say, it's got to tick up to like, yeah,

358
00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 5: around forty and the draw is eleven to one. But yeah,

359
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 5: you think Belgrade's going to make this a real nail bier.

360
00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:48,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, plus three. I mean that, I really if you've

361
00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:50,840
Speaker 4: listened to this podcast long enough, you know that I

362
00:17:50,880 --> 00:17:54,679
Speaker 4: can pronounce this this team's name wrong on multiple occasions.

363
00:17:55,320 --> 00:18:00,280
Speaker 4: I now know that it's Belgrade, but this team when

364
00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 4: I'm going through, you know, doing Champions League projections, I

365
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:04,879
Speaker 4: obviously like to use all the XG data from what

366
00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,840
Speaker 4: teams do in their own domestic leagues and use it

367
00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:09,240
Speaker 4: here for the Champions League caause I find it so

368
00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:11,240
Speaker 4: it's a larger sample size and then we can obviously,

369
00:18:11,560 --> 00:18:14,200
Speaker 4: you know, make adjustments for league strength talent wise, never

370
00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:18,320
Speaker 4: and whatever. But Red Star Belgrade has consistently, year after

371
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,879
Speaker 4: year put up some of the best XG numbers in

372
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 4: their own domestic league that I've seen of any team

373
00:18:23,240 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 4: that's in the Champions League field last season plus one

374
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 4: point six to two actually differential per ninety and they've

375
00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:31,560
Speaker 4: extended that into this season. And if you look through

376
00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,320
Speaker 4: their roster, they do have some talented players. You know,

377
00:18:34,320 --> 00:18:37,760
Speaker 4: their total transfer squad value is around seventy five million,

378
00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:39,920
Speaker 4: which you know is on the bottom tier of teams

379
00:18:39,960 --> 00:18:41,919
Speaker 4: in the Champions League, but it's not at the complete bottom.

380
00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 4: And their manager was actually the guy who managed Maccabi

381
00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 4: Hifa last season in the Champions League.

382
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:48,920
Speaker 1: And if you.

383
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,560
Speaker 4: Remember that Maccabi Hifha team, their first couple matches against

384
00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:55,960
Speaker 4: PSG and against Benefica, they did put in pretty good

385
00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,479
Speaker 4: defensive performances and then obviously as we got deeper into

386
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 4: the Champions League and then you know we're completely out

387
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,440
Speaker 4: of it. PSG ran up six on them and Benefica

388
00:19:03,520 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 4: ran up seven, so you know, obviously that gets you know,

389
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 4: it's not very good. But this team has been consistently

390
00:19:09,000 --> 00:19:10,639
Speaker 4: in the Europa League for a long time now, I

391
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:13,000
Speaker 4: believe three or four years straight. They've played a lot

392
00:19:13,040 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 4: of upper tier teams. Last week last year they were

393
00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,320
Speaker 4: paired in a group with Monaco, played them even on

394
00:19:17,520 --> 00:19:20,879
Speaker 4: XG in both meetings. So I think plus three is

395
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 4: a little too steep here projected closer to two point

396
00:19:24,520 --> 00:19:28,440
Speaker 4: five on Belgrade. So I just I will never stop

397
00:19:28,520 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 4: leaving in this in this club, So give me them

398
00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:33,000
Speaker 4: plus three at City.

399
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:36,760
Speaker 3: Well, I'm not feeling inspired, you know, I'm just not.

400
00:19:37,119 --> 00:19:37,920
Speaker 1: Yeah's mine.

401
00:19:38,359 --> 00:19:41,960
Speaker 3: When they City goes to Leipzig next m I can't

402
00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 3: wait to see what the number is.

403
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 5: And at BJ you're gonna be the only one. You're

404
00:19:45,720 --> 00:19:48,640
Speaker 5: on an island. Here in Shacktar and Porto as well,

405
00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:51,960
Speaker 5: it's Shocktars at home and they're plus three thirty three.

406
00:19:52,880 --> 00:19:54,240
Speaker 5: It feels a lot just even.

407
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 4: And this is you know the thing with Chaktra, this

408
00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 4: is one of the least talented Shocktar teams that we've

409
00:19:59,600 --> 00:20:01,200
Speaker 4: seen a lot time because they've been in the Champions

410
00:20:01,280 --> 00:20:04,159
Speaker 4: League basically every single season for the last five years,

411
00:20:04,720 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 4: and they just don't have much talent anymore. But what

412
00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 4: if we've seen from shocks Heart when they do get

413
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,919
Speaker 4: in the Champions League as they are, especially in that

414
00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 4: group with Madrid and Leipzig last season, they were so

415
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:18,920
Speaker 4: so defensive and basically just sent Muderick out on counter

416
00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 4: attacks and he hit a couple of them and that's

417
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 4: how they got back into the Europa League. But no,

418
00:20:24,119 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 4: they're they're gonna sit very very deep to playing a

419
00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,960
Speaker 4: ports team that's obously gonna play out of a four four two.

420
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 4: I believe it's just gonna be a little of stalemate.

421
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,040
Speaker 4: I don't believe that this total should be sitting, you know,

422
00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,639
Speaker 4: minus pointing to over two and a half minus one forty,

423
00:20:36,480 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 4: So under two and a half plus one twenty is

424
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:40,639
Speaker 4: good enough for me in that match.

425
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,320
Speaker 5: Anthony, anything on young Boys and Leipzig, Like I said,

426
00:20:44,320 --> 00:20:46,360
Speaker 5: I think Leipzig, if if you wanted to wrap them

427
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 5: with PSG, looks all right. They've they've been doing their

428
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:54,960
Speaker 5: thing in the Bundesliga. That no red flags here for me.

429
00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think that Leipzig, if anything, is

430
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 3: a little bit undervalue here, so I would generally agree.

431
00:21:03,040 --> 00:21:05,080
Speaker 3: You know, when you look at Leipzig, you know, the

432
00:21:05,119 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 3: market did downgrade them, but I think that their market's

433
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,160
Speaker 3: quickly catching up because of the performances they've been putting

434
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 3: up in the Bundesliga. So they, you know, lose their

435
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,200
Speaker 3: first match to Leverkusen, a Leverkusen team that we now

436
00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 3: know is better than we thought, and since then it

437
00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,159
Speaker 3: has been you know, three consecutive boat racings, and I

438
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 3: know the final XG data from the match against Osburg

439
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 3: wasn't great because once they were up three now it

440
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:29,800
Speaker 3: kind of got away from them a little bit and

441
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 3: they conceded a bunch of chances. But that was a

442
00:21:32,080 --> 00:21:37,480
Speaker 3: beatdown today or Saturday rather, So I am going to

443
00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 3: say that, you know, Leipzig, I'm going to hope they

444
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 3: don't win by too many. I'm actually gonna root against

445
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,359
Speaker 3: Lilps like I hope they win close because if they

446
00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:48,800
Speaker 3: keep winning by big numbers, the market is going to

447
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:50,320
Speaker 3: quickly bump them and we are not going to get

448
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 3: that many chances to bet them. So hopefully this game

449
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,040
Speaker 3: is close but I think that they're going to be

450
00:21:55,040 --> 00:21:57,800
Speaker 3: able to roll here. Young boys like they've like their

451
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,840
Speaker 3: their squad value is less than it was last year

452
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,840
Speaker 3: and they have lost some of their talent, so like

453
00:22:03,880 --> 00:22:06,240
Speaker 3: they always put a good effort at home. It seems

454
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 3: to be the trend with them if you go look

455
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,159
Speaker 3: through their data, and there's other teams that applies to

456
00:22:10,200 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 3: as well. But I don't have a ton of faith

457
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 3: in them in the spot and I think Leipzig just

458
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 3: like they can rotate through people and still have like

459
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,760
Speaker 3: really good attackers on the pitch at all times, so

460
00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 3: it's just very hard to stop all the waves of attack.

461
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,879
Speaker 5: Any thoughts from either of you on Barcelona or in

462
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:30,159
Speaker 5: versus Royal Antwerp at Camp New Barcelona minus five hundred

463
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:33,399
Speaker 5: in fourteen to one.

464
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 4: Maybe an under three and a half anything, you know,

465
00:22:37,119 --> 00:22:40,920
Speaker 4: minus one fifteen or better, you know project this round

466
00:22:40,960 --> 00:22:46,200
Speaker 4: two point eight goals. The thing about Antwerp, they're really

467
00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,760
Speaker 4: lucky to be here, Like they are the luckiest team

468
00:22:49,800 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 4: that's like it actually got into the Champions League. You know,

469
00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,679
Speaker 4: Belgium is the one very few leagues that has a

470
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 4: playoff system. They didn't win the regular season and they

471
00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 4: luck Box their way and they scored a ninety fourth

472
00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 4: minute goal from Toby Alda Wield from outside the box

473
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 4: to win the Belgian League. Then they went and played

474
00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 4: ak Athens in the Champions League qualification and they got

475
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 4: beat down on XTG in both meetings. But luck Box

476
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 4: their way into this thing. So they are a slow,

477
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:18,760
Speaker 4: pragmatic build up team in the Belgian League. They're not

478
00:23:18,800 --> 00:23:20,760
Speaker 4: a quick transitional team, which is you know how you

479
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,560
Speaker 4: have to beat Barcelona, so I don't think they'll be

480
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:26,400
Speaker 4: able to score against them, and with rock solid Barcelona's

481
00:23:26,440 --> 00:23:30,560
Speaker 4: defense has been, I could see them winning this two nothing,

482
00:23:30,600 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 4: three nothing, so maybe under three and a half. But

483
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:34,920
Speaker 4: other than that, that's pass.

484
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,200
Speaker 1: That means we can move on to Wednesday.

485
00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 5: I think Wednesday there's a couple of whoppers to bet,

486
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 5: and one of them is easily the headliner for the

487
00:23:46,640 --> 00:23:50,880
Speaker 5: first match week. That's Byron hosting Manchester United. Byrons might

488
00:23:50,880 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 5: have won eighty eight at home United traveling to Bavaria

489
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,560
Speaker 5: at plus four fifty. The draw is plus three fifty.

490
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,840
Speaker 5: It is time, baby, I don't know, man is time.

491
00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,280
Speaker 5: You can't be scared like this is this is exactly

492
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 5: the opportunity we've been waiting for to bet on United.

493
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 4: Have we been waiting to bet on United?

494
00:24:11,720 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 3: And we've been waiting. I haven't been waiting.

495
00:24:13,359 --> 00:24:14,120
Speaker 1: I haven't wait.

496
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 4: If this is it, I mean, they got they got

497
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 4: to sustain some of this, like they like, here's the

498
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,440
Speaker 4: thing with United. They come out like twenty five minutes

499
00:24:23,480 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 4: and they just blitz you and they look awesome, and

500
00:24:25,240 --> 00:24:28,160
Speaker 4: they look great, and then they just like completely run

501
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 4: out of gas and teams just break them down left

502
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 4: and rights and all the injuries that have mounted up.

503
00:24:33,359 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 4: I mean you saw with Brighton, they just overloaded the

504
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 4: left side. They targeted dall Mark. Strashford doesn't press out

505
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 4: of possession, so Brighton just picked him apart. That's exactly

506
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:44,120
Speaker 4: what Byron Munic can do here. Now, are we really

507
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 4: gonna play Byron and you know minus one ninety or

508
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: minus one after we saw against Leverkusen. No, I'm thinking

509
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:50,200
Speaker 4: about it.

510
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 3: So I'm thinking about it, Bjay, are you yeah? I

511
00:24:56,119 --> 00:25:00,840
Speaker 3: think that you know, Leverkusen played really well. The case

512
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:04,040
Speaker 3: to make against Byron is that they looked kind of

513
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 3: lost and build up at times. Kimmick was only able

514
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: to play an hour against Leverkusen he was pissed to

515
00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 3: get taken off. But when he's not on the pitch,

516
00:25:13,480 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: Goretzka doesn't show for the ball, like he's constantly trying

517
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,000
Speaker 3: to get forward, and thus there's just nobody there in

518
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 3: the middle. But the problem is that like the pace

519
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 3: of these wide players for Byron, yeah, against you know,

520
00:25:30,640 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 3: these United defenders, and the ease at which Brighton was

521
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 3: able to just make small tactical tweaks that Deservey made.

522
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:40,560
Speaker 3: I mean, it wasn't anything crazy. They just changed into

523
00:25:40,760 --> 00:25:42,359
Speaker 3: like a four four two diamond and then all of

524
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:45,480
Speaker 3: a sudden, like the channels were wide open for that.

525
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:50,080
Speaker 3: They scored the same goal three times. Like I thought.

526
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,480
Speaker 3: Byron created a lot of chances at home against Leverkusen,

527
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 3: like they easily could have won that match, probably should have,

528
00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:57,679
Speaker 3: you know, her desk, he made some good saves, they

529
00:25:57,680 --> 00:25:59,640
Speaker 3: had some good blocks. Bony Foss probably should have scored

530
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 3: one two, like you know, they were definitely open at

531
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,880
Speaker 3: the back like that. That's the case for United for sure,

532
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 3: like Byron is still open. They will concede chances. But

533
00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 3: I don't know how United stops this team.

534
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 5: I don't either, And there's one one team is plus

535
00:26:15,320 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 5: for fifty, and that's the argument. Yeah, I'm not We're

536
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 5: not flipping a coin here. This is a yeah, yeah,

537
00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:24,120
Speaker 5: it's a plus four fifty underdog.

538
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:28,680
Speaker 1: Uh oh, who is who can score?

539
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:32,359
Speaker 5: And they do very they scoring transition well going against

540
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 5: a team that has trouble picking up the pieces when

541
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 5: the ball starts going the other way.

542
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 3: So, yeah, Casimiro had another really bad game on Saturday.

543
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:44,000
Speaker 3: He's a champion I'm starting to sound some alarm bells.

544
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: He's a Champions League.

545
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: Yeah. I think they're starting to have a real problem

546
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,679
Speaker 3: because you know, he wasn't great in possession, which is

547
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 3: like whatever, that's a bad game, but his his covering

548
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 3: space numbers, tackling numbers are down, and they are so

549
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:58,840
Speaker 3: relying on him in that system with the way that

550
00:26:58,840 --> 00:27:04,080
Speaker 3: they're set up right now, that it's very fragile. And yeah,

551
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:06,320
Speaker 3: I think I wish you United was at home because

552
00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:08,160
Speaker 3: I would definitely love to get them plus a half

553
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:09,320
Speaker 3: at home, and I think that would be a very

554
00:27:09,359 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: interesting bet. But going away to Byron is so much

555
00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 3: more difficult.

556
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:13,159
Speaker 5: Uh.

557
00:27:13,720 --> 00:27:16,320
Speaker 3: This this is relentless attack, so it'll be fun match.

558
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:17,960
Speaker 3: I probably end up saying it out to be honest.

559
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, and you know if they if they get ripped

560
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,880
Speaker 4: apart here ten Honks seats gonna get a little warm,

561
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,919
Speaker 4: not hot, just just a little warm.

562
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:27,800
Speaker 3: We'll see our gallat ass ride tickets. Definitely do not

563
00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:30,160
Speaker 3: need a United victory here, o, God.

564
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 4: We need a buyern We need a Byron route.

565
00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 1: All right, So I'll be alone on United.

566
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 5: It feels like just the beginning of last year to

567
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:40,239
Speaker 5: just waiting for the bottom of the market and then

568
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 5: you then then you snap them up. Arsenal bj COMP

569
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:49,879
Speaker 5: came out on top. In a podcast Arby hammered Everard

570
00:27:49,880 --> 00:27:53,560
Speaker 5: in one nail Arsenal minus two fifty.

571
00:27:53,480 --> 00:27:55,159
Speaker 3: Downgraded Arsenal again after their win.

572
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 5: Of course, psv U coming to town walking this week

573
00:27:59,800 --> 00:28:02,480
Speaker 5: to the where it seems stinks plus seven fifty and

574
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 5: the drugs plus three seventy five. PSV also off to

575
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:10,879
Speaker 5: a rollicking start in the art vise A. I'm pretty

576
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 5: tempted here.

577
00:28:12,720 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 3: This weekend Big Champions League return. Yeah, I like the under.

578
00:28:18,080 --> 00:28:20,199
Speaker 3: I think Arsenal's got problems. I'm going to say, like

579
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:25,000
Speaker 3: I said the same thing had the Everton match. I

580
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 3: think their attack is regressing. Oh my gosh, they're not

581
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 3: as good. They're not consistently creating. It was funny because

582
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:37,119
Speaker 3: I had literally was composing the tweet, and then the

583
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,320
Speaker 3: color commentator said today on the broadcast, you know, this

584
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,000
Speaker 3: Arsenal team, they just don't look as fluid in front

585
00:28:43,000 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 3: of goal. They don't look as fluid as they did

586
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 3: last year. It's very it's very I don't think he

587
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 3: said yanky, but he said something something along those lines.

588
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 3: Very stagnant, And I agree. I think that things are

589
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: kind of off, and I am concerned about their attack

590
00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 3: and how many goals they're going to continue keep scoring,

591
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,720
Speaker 3: because they just played one of the worst defenses in

592
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 3: the league through the first four matches and created like

593
00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:10,160
Speaker 3: one expected goal on thirteen total shots the first half.

594
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 3: They had seventy nine percent of the ball. They took

595
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:15,120
Speaker 3: three shots.

596
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:17,920
Speaker 1: That's that one was far off.

597
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 3: One was fard off, right, But the Everton defenders switch

598
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: off because n because they're all throwing their hands up. Yeah,

599
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 3: Nikatty was off side and he was way off. So

600
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 3: it was a good run by Martinelli. But now he's

601
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 3: down yep, right, so he's out for this match.

602
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 1: Corn Yeah scored the beautiful goal today.

603
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm looking Andrew scores every time they plays, so

604
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 3: maybe they should they should be getting him on there.

605
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 3: But PSV, we've talked about them on this show a bunch.

606
00:29:43,320 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 3: They've lost a bunch of attacking talent. They've had a

607
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 3: good start in the Air Divisy, but the underlying numbers

608
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 3: aren't nearly as good. They've they've only created six point

609
00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:54,760
Speaker 3: nine XG in their first four matches, which is, you know,

610
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 3: less than that sounds good, but you have to remember

611
00:29:58,080 --> 00:30:00,640
Speaker 3: this is the Air Divisy. It's like, for example, Fine

612
00:30:00,720 --> 00:30:02,360
Speaker 3: or it has created ten point three and they're the

613
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 3: number one here, So you know, I have my question

614
00:30:05,920 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 3: marks about how good this attacks really going to be.

615
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 3: And Arsenal will have their first choice defense available and

616
00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 3: I have to respect their defensive numbers when their first

617
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 3: choice has been available and it's been quite good. So

618
00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 3: under three, you know, for me, is going to be

619
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 3: the play. And I think Arsenal probably wins this match.

620
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:24,520
Speaker 3: I don't think they're going to get picked off. But

621
00:30:24,640 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 3: I think there's real attacking concerns for this group, that

622
00:30:28,920 --> 00:30:31,280
Speaker 3: those front three, those big three are just not quite

623
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:33,320
Speaker 3: the same this year. Now Martin Nelly's out, so any

624
00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: Nakatia still.

625
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,120
Speaker 5: Mid yeah, I'm pretty sure I'm going to end up

626
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,920
Speaker 5: on PSVs where the market goes as we get closer.

627
00:30:42,200 --> 00:30:44,360
Speaker 5: Arsenal and Newcastle kind of remind me of one another

628
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 5: in terms of like they're they're I don't know if

629
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 5: they're going to be great teams you're going to want

630
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 5: to lay big prices with because I just don't trust

631
00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,640
Speaker 5: them to get separation because they don't create enough consistently.

632
00:30:56,400 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 1: PJ. This is a they're boring, boring Arsenal right now,

633
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: mm hmmm.

634
00:31:00,920 --> 00:31:02,800
Speaker 4: We said that it's early era.

635
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,720
Speaker 3: It's early era Arteta Arsenal right, now, a lot of possession,

636
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:10,880
Speaker 3: not a lot of high quality shots. That's just the reality. Look,

637
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 3: they could prove me wrong. The city certainly did last year,

638
00:31:13,560 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 3: didn't they YEA, But I think there's and you know,

639
00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 3: I mean and look, it's not like like you looked

640
00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 3: at last year's numbers and you could you could paint

641
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:25,480
Speaker 3: the picture. I mean, look at how much all of

642
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:27,719
Speaker 3: their guests, players all over before their x G and

643
00:31:27,800 --> 00:31:30,480
Speaker 3: all also had career years at the same time. It

644
00:31:30,640 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 3: just like doesn't happen again, it's not happening. So soccer

645
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 3: has been quiet. He'll probably score a goal here just

646
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:38,480
Speaker 3: because because I said that.

647
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,800
Speaker 5: It was really good today. I thought he played well

648
00:31:41,120 --> 00:31:43,760
Speaker 5: causing Michlenka is not the best.

649
00:31:43,600 --> 00:31:46,400
Speaker 3: Causing a lot of problems, but yeah, not creating a

650
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 3: ton of big scoring chances at the end, which is

651
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 3: like what we're here for. And passed up a couple

652
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 3: of looks that I thought he was going to shoot,

653
00:31:52,160 --> 00:31:53,680
Speaker 3: which I thought was interesting too, and then the ball

654
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 3: gets cleared you don't get a shot.

655
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:57,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. Interesting.

656
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 4: I mean, listen, we've with Arsenal, We've played a bunch

657
00:31:59,960 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 4: of teams that are just gonna sit deep and like

658
00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 4: really low, low low blocks. So yeah, we've struggled to

659
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 4: break down low blocks to like three or four matches.

660
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 4: But I think we're really going to find out when

661
00:32:09,160 --> 00:32:11,440
Speaker 4: we come up here against Tottenham and Bourne, Myth and

662
00:32:11,480 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 4: even PSV, who does press a little bit what Arsenal's

663
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:16,920
Speaker 4: actually made of, if teams will actually come out and

664
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:18,640
Speaker 4: try to disrupt their bill to play. So far, we

665
00:32:18,640 --> 00:32:20,960
Speaker 4: haven't seen that. It's basically just been teams just sitting

666
00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 4: back and Arsenal has struggled to break down low blocks.

667
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 4: That's true, but I think the process is great for Arsenal.

668
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,080
Speaker 4: Right now, I think They're controlling the matches very very well,

669
00:32:28,120 --> 00:32:29,480
Speaker 4: even the match against every Time. I know they didn't

670
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 4: create a lot, but they were under control the entire match.

671
00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 4: Like I never really felt like worried that everyone is

672
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,120
Speaker 4: going to come and like create a munch chance against

673
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:39,360
Speaker 4: this in transition, Like, yeah, they've some teams have had

674
00:32:39,400 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 4: a couple of moments against us, but we're we're under

675
00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 4: control right now, and that's the biggest thing. I think

676
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 4: that as we get more and more game control will

677
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: get better and better at breaking down low blocks fair.

678
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:51,840
Speaker 3: I want to make this clear because people think I

679
00:32:51,880 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 3: hate all the teams that I hate X team the podcast,

680
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:57,719
Speaker 3: though I don't even hate Arsenal I think, I mean

681
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,200
Speaker 3: I do personally, but like as a better I don't

682
00:32:59,240 --> 00:33:00,720
Speaker 3: think they're like that. I don't don't think they're like

683
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 3: we have to might we must fade them at all costs.

684
00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:06,240
Speaker 3: I just think that the established market rating of this

685
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 3: team right now as an attack is too high because

686
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 3: of how good they ran last year. That's all, and

687
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,760
Speaker 3: I think that carries over into this match. He was

688
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:17,280
Speaker 3: on display today. I didn't think they were great against United,

689
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 3: will that matter against Tottenham? Because Totenham is gonna play

690
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 3: a lot differently, and you know, we can talk about

691
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 3: that this weekend.

692
00:33:22,760 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 4: But I think it also and it's also something about

693
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 4: prestige with these teams. Anthony is like teams play different

694
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 4: styles against you know, teams that are now at the

695
00:33:32,960 --> 00:33:34,920
Speaker 4: top of at the top of the pyramid. Right like

696
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:37,880
Speaker 4: if Tottenham had the season that Arsenal did with Inch,

697
00:33:38,000 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 4: Like if we each to the end of the season

698
00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:41,680
Speaker 4: and Michael's forty four to one ticket cashes and Tottenham

699
00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 4: wins the title, teams are not Teams are not going

700
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:47,040
Speaker 4: to come out and just press them with reckless abandonment

701
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 4: like Burnley and Bournemouth have did, like early on the days.

702
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 4: That's what happened with Arsenal and that's why they had

703
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 4: They ran so good for such a long time. And

704
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:56,239
Speaker 4: now teams are like, oh no, we can't do that

705
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,080
Speaker 4: to them because they are one of the contenders now.

706
00:33:59,280 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 4: So this is just what happens. It happened to City

707
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 4: over and over again, and now it's happened at Arsenal.

708
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,000
Speaker 5: Let's talk about the one of the twelve forty fives,

709
00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 5: so Arsenal and PSV. That's Group B United Bayron, Group

710
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 5: B A we're going to jump to Group C. Now

711
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:18,440
Speaker 5: this is Real Madrid and Unjan Berlin.

712
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 1: You know, we kind of.

713
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:24,480
Speaker 5: Snickered at Unyan Berlin last season for the way they ran,

714
00:34:24,560 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 5: but for this team to be in the Champions League

715
00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 5: considering where they were like five years.

716
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,640
Speaker 1: Ago, yeah, pretty wild.

717
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,320
Speaker 5: Nonetheless, Madrid is a big favorite. Minus two seventy five

718
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 5: Berlin plus six fifty traveling to Spain and then the

719
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 5: draws plus four hundred BJ You're you're the only one

720
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 5: with the play here.

721
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:44,839
Speaker 1: Yeah.

722
00:34:44,840 --> 00:34:46,440
Speaker 4: I like the under A plus money a plus one

723
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,879
Speaker 4: fifteen Real Madrid. I mean, we've kind of been saying

724
00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 4: it over over on this podcast, but you know, their

725
00:34:53,960 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 4: whole offense right now has been Jude Bellingham. Now that

726
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:59,680
Speaker 4: Venetias is injured. You know, he's scored five of their

727
00:34:59,719 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 4: goals before. Obviously the match against Associate Ad today which

728
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,200
Speaker 4: was pretty chaotic, but again a Sociatead did score early

729
00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 4: on there, so Real Madrid had to have more emphasis

730
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 4: on going forward. But I mean, the definition of Park

731
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,719
Speaker 4: the Boss is what Unjan Berlin is going to do

732
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 4: in this match. They are going to literally, I think

733
00:35:18,719 --> 00:35:20,960
Speaker 4: put ten guys in the box and I don't know

734
00:35:20,960 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 4: if they're really going to try and do much counter

735
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 4: attacking in this because one point at the bird about

736
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 4: would be absolutely massive for them in this group. So

737
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:31,919
Speaker 4: they're going to play you know, five at the back

738
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 4: for the un for the excuse me for the under

739
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,399
Speaker 4: to be sitting at plus money with Real Madrid who

740
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,120
Speaker 4: still has not figured out their striker issues. I mean,

741
00:35:39,200 --> 00:35:42,400
Speaker 4: Josalou before today was getting two and a half shots

742
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 4: per ninety uh in his first you know, three and

743
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 4: three La Liga matches. That's quite concerning. And you know,

744
00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 4: again Bellingham being a box invader has been their entire offense.

745
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,239
Speaker 4: So I think they're going to struggle to break down

746
00:35:56,440 --> 00:35:59,160
Speaker 4: on Brilin's low block for large stretches of this match.

747
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,359
Speaker 4: So I projected two point two goals, so under two

748
00:36:02,400 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 4: and a half at plus one fifteen. It's a pretty

749
00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 4: decent price enough for me to play it.

750
00:36:06,560 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to be seen this one out. I'm

751
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 1: going to running.

752
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:12,319
Speaker 5: I'm a little tempted by the draw, honestly. That's that's

753
00:36:12,560 --> 00:36:16,400
Speaker 5: the one bet I think I would make anty anything

754
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 5: here before we move on.

755
00:36:17,520 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 3: Well, the thing is like Real Madrid doesn't do a

756
00:36:19,520 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 3: ton of counter pressing. They'll they'll let you have the ball,

757
00:36:24,040 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 3: they will let you when you win it kind of

758
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 3: try to attack them, but they will not see a

759
00:36:30,160 --> 00:36:31,799
Speaker 3: ton of big chances off of that. Now they have

760
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:37,280
Speaker 3: gone down early in three of their first five league matches.

761
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 3: They've come back to win them all with late winners

762
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 3: in every game, of course, but going down early to Catafe,

763
00:36:43,160 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 3: going down early to Associated today, going down early, you know,

764
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 3: it's it's been a real thing to al Maria, and

765
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,080
Speaker 3: then they should have gone down early to South of

766
00:36:52,160 --> 00:36:53,799
Speaker 3: Ego as well. So really like.

767
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:55,000
Speaker 4: Var bailed them out.

768
00:36:55,280 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 3: It's been a bit shaky for Real Madrid here, and

769
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 3: I do think they're over value. The problem is, I'm

770
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:03,920
Speaker 3: worried about Unoanto because we've already seen their defensive numbers

771
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: start to slide in Germany, and I'm just wondering how

772
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 3: sustainable what they did last year defensively, forget all of

773
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 3: the attacking finishing stuff we've all gone through that. Can

774
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 3: they replicate being the best defense in the Bundesliga again, Like,

775
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:19,560
Speaker 3: can they sustain that level? I'm a little skeptical of that.

776
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 3: So that keeps me very intrigued by this match. I

777
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,200
Speaker 3: look forward to watching it, but probably will not be betting.

778
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: It, Okay.

779
00:37:26,840 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 5: One that we will be betting is Benfica and Salzburg.

780
00:37:31,120 --> 00:37:34,320
Speaker 5: This is a Group D match at three pm. Benfica

781
00:37:34,360 --> 00:37:38,400
Speaker 5: minus two twenty five at home, Salzburg traveling plus six

782
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,480
Speaker 5: fifty in the drugs plus three thirty three. Anthony, you

783
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 5: and I are, We're on the same side here. I

784
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:46,760
Speaker 5: think Salzburg's live, Yeah.

785
00:37:46,560 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 1: I do.

786
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 3: Benfica's continue to put up remarkably good numbers in the

787
00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 3: Portuguese Liga, but I think there are some questions about

788
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 3: how good they really are. And they've dominated Portugal for

789
00:37:57,080 --> 00:38:00,760
Speaker 3: so long now that you have to respect it. But remember,

790
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:02,960
Speaker 3: you know, what do we know about this Benfica team.

791
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:07,480
Speaker 3: They put up these ridiculously good numbers in the Portuguese League, right,

792
00:38:08,160 --> 00:38:10,359
Speaker 3: they won a group we all said last year coming

793
00:38:10,360 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 3: into last season they're so undervalued. They won a Champions

794
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,680
Speaker 3: League group that included PSG. What do we think of

795
00:38:15,719 --> 00:38:20,040
Speaker 3: them now? That PSG team? Looking back Juventus? What do

796
00:38:20,080 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 3: we think of them now? And then they beat Club Bruce,

797
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 3: who I know I bet in the bround of sixteen,

798
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:28,480
Speaker 3: but Bjay was probably right about them horrendous and then

799
00:38:28,480 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 3: they lost to Enter, so like this entire Benfica mythology

800
00:38:34,719 --> 00:38:36,520
Speaker 3: is built off of back to back quarterfinals in the

801
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 3: Champions League, which is fair. They made back to back

802
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 3: quarter finals. They luck box their way past i Ax

803
00:38:40,719 --> 00:38:44,680
Speaker 3: before that. But now we're at this inflated market rating

804
00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 3: on them when they've lost all of their talent. Fernandez

805
00:38:48,760 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 3: is gone, Ramos is gone. Their attack right now is

806
00:38:51,520 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 3: Arthur Cabral and Anhaldi Maria. That's kind of shaky to me,

807
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 3: So I think that there's going to be some regression

808
00:38:58,480 --> 00:38:59,160
Speaker 3: here for Benfica.

809
00:38:59,239 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: We don't.

810
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,279
Speaker 3: To me, Salsburg is a black box because every year

811
00:39:03,320 --> 00:39:05,680
Speaker 3: they sell everybody and then they come in with this

812
00:39:05,719 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 3: new team and we're like, okay, what is Salsburg. Well,

813
00:39:07,560 --> 00:39:10,399
Speaker 3: this year they sold okafor their best striker, they sold

814
00:39:10,440 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 3: a Domvie, probably their second best striker, or should be

815
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:14,920
Speaker 3: the third best striker. They sold Cesco, who's probably their

816
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:18,560
Speaker 3: second best forward. So like everybody's gone and we're like, okay,

817
00:39:18,600 --> 00:39:21,440
Speaker 3: maybe these new guys are good. I mean, Salsburg has

818
00:39:21,480 --> 00:39:24,640
Speaker 3: a track record of doing that. So I'm gonna play

819
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:28,280
Speaker 3: against Benfica here catching almost a goal and a half

820
00:39:28,640 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 3: a good goal in a quarter, I'm gonna play Salsburg

821
00:39:30,880 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 3: on the road, and uh, I'm tempted by the under

822
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 3: but I'm also concerned because ben Fica is now, you know,

823
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,040
Speaker 3: with those dominant numbers in Portugal, conceded over one XG

824
00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,200
Speaker 3: in every match this year in Portugal and they haven't

825
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 3: played any of the top teams yet. So does Roger

826
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 3: Schmid like press and possess Versus Salisburg, who's very comfortable

827
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 3: playing that style. I think it has flaws and I

828
00:39:52,600 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 3: think they're gonna get exposed here.

829
00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 1: So Salsburg for me, yeah, I'm hopefully mostly good.

830
00:39:59,680 --> 00:40:01,719
Speaker 3: New Kers are good. If they're good, this team could

831
00:40:01,719 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 3: be competitive in this group. If they're not, they're probably not,

832
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 3: but we're gonna find out.

833
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,120
Speaker 5: It just comes down to we knew coming into this

834
00:40:10,360 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 5: Champions League that Benfica would be a little bit overvalued

835
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 5: based on, like you said, the two back to back

836
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 5: trips to the final eight, tip your cap move on.

837
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 5: A lot of talents left, and I wanted to play

838
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 5: against them right away in this in this Champions League,

839
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:26,840
Speaker 5: and I'm gonna get a chance to do it with

840
00:40:26,560 --> 00:40:29,480
Speaker 5: a live underdog I think at plus six fifty, So

841
00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 5: Salzburg for me, let's move on to sociodd at Inter

842
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 5: Socio Dot plus two ten at home, inter coming in

843
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 5: at plus one thirty seven, a road favorite, and the

844
00:40:41,200 --> 00:40:45,960
Speaker 5: draw is plus two ten BJ. We've identified this Socio

845
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 5: DoD team as a group that we're probably going to

846
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 5: be backing, especially as underdogs, and I mean especially as

847
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:52,720
Speaker 5: a home underdub.

848
00:40:52,840 --> 00:40:56,759
Speaker 4: Yeah for sure. You know, I projected this like dead

849
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:59,080
Speaker 4: on it to pick them. So I'm thinking there's a

850
00:40:59,080 --> 00:41:01,520
Speaker 4: little bit of value here on Sociated Ad at home.

851
00:41:01,560 --> 00:41:04,560
Speaker 4: Now the market has come back from their performance against

852
00:41:04,560 --> 00:41:06,879
Speaker 4: Real Madrid, which is kind of surprising given how good

853
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:09,120
Speaker 4: Inter was against a cy Milan. You do, Inter was

854
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,640
Speaker 4: sitting around plus one twenty plus one twenty five before

855
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:14,360
Speaker 4: this weekend's matches and Associate had to put it in

856
00:41:14,360 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 4: a good performance in the road against Real Madrid, and

857
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:18,239
Speaker 4: now Inters sitting at plus one forty five. So I

858
00:41:18,280 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 4: wanted to play Associated Ad you know, plus a half,

859
00:41:21,520 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 4: because you know, I thought that going into the weekend.

860
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:29,400
Speaker 4: My thought process was, Okay, Sociate Dad's trapping to Real Madrid.

861
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 4: If they lose and Inter beat aasy Milan, which they

862
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 4: are a favorite, then I'll get a better price on

863
00:41:33,960 --> 00:41:36,040
Speaker 4: Sociadad here at home and now that did not happen.

864
00:41:36,200 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 4: But the associate AD team is very very good out

865
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,319
Speaker 4: of possession. They're the best pressing team in Spain last

866
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 4: season bypasses per defensive action. Now what we know about

867
00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:46,239
Speaker 4: Inter is they're a very direct team, like they're not

868
00:41:46,280 --> 00:41:48,200
Speaker 4: going to just build out of the back, although Sociodad

869
00:41:48,239 --> 00:41:50,520
Speaker 4: I believe will concede possession to them and try to

870
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,400
Speaker 4: force them to build out of the back. But just

871
00:41:52,400 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 4: from a price standpoint, I mean, this is associate AD

872
00:41:55,360 --> 00:41:58,760
Speaker 4: team that consistently has put up really really good expected

873
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 4: goals numbers in Spain. You know when you're pricing or

874
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:04,479
Speaker 4: using you know you wave coefficients or you know, total

875
00:42:04,520 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 4: transfer market value for these leagues essentially not the premier league.

876
00:42:08,560 --> 00:42:11,239
Speaker 4: It's basically La Lega, Bundesligan Syria are all kind of

877
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 4: just meshed together right now. There's really not a huge

878
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 4: gap between the three in my opinion. So you know,

879
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,399
Speaker 4: soci Dad at Home getting a good price, good team

880
00:42:22,400 --> 00:42:26,120
Speaker 4: out of possession, good defensive numbers obviously under one expectable

881
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,680
Speaker 4: for ninety and La Legal last season didn't really lose

882
00:42:28,680 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 4: anybody over the summer significantly, has great attacking players that

883
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 4: can really get at the center, defense and transition. I

884
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:36,879
Speaker 4: think the price is good enough to play Socia Dad,

885
00:42:37,440 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 4: John O Bett and anythink plus one ten or better.

886
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:42,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, it goes in cycles. You know. Last year I

887
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:45,400
Speaker 3: was really high on Italy. That was very evident if

888
00:42:45,400 --> 00:42:47,400
Speaker 3: you've listened to our podcast at any point during the

889
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 3: second half of the season. This year, I think I'm

890
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,719
Speaker 3: up on the Bundesliga. I'm not sure yet. I mean,

891
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 3: it's too early, but I do like Leverkusen. I think

892
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 3: I might bet them to win the Europa League. But

893
00:42:57,719 --> 00:43:00,319
Speaker 3: in Leipzig is Leipzig. But it goes in cycles, like

894
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 3: the third to like sixth best teams in all these leagues?

895
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 3: How good are they? Actually? It varies a lot and

896
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,920
Speaker 3: there's not a huge gap, so I generally agree. I

897
00:43:09,920 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 3: have I have Enter as a slight favorite. I love

898
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 3: what Inter did this summer, like the absolute truck to

899
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 3: start the Syria season. Concern the market may not have

900
00:43:18,560 --> 00:43:20,399
Speaker 3: caught up yet though, and I may not have caught

901
00:43:20,480 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 3: up yet, so I'm going to probably end up passing here.

902
00:43:23,520 --> 00:43:25,920
Speaker 3: This market has moved towards Socidad, like you said that

903
00:43:25,920 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 3: that has kept me off of this, but I did

904
00:43:27,840 --> 00:43:30,080
Speaker 3: bet them to advance. If you listened to our Futures

905
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 3: episode from way back, you can still find plus one

906
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,879
Speaker 3: forty out there. BJ and I wrote previews for all

907
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 3: eight groups, which are up on the Action Network site now,

908
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:40,959
Speaker 3: so go read through that. Figure out are our favorite

909
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,359
Speaker 3: future who were looking to bet against. And I am

910
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 3: more long game socio DoD here than in this match.

911
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 5: Braga plus three thirty three another ones. They kick off

912
00:43:49,160 --> 00:43:55,240
Speaker 5: hosting Napoli, last year's darlings. Napoli's minus one twenty traveling

913
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:58,160
Speaker 5: the draws plus two sixty BJA, you think this one

914
00:43:58,160 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 5: could be pretty low event.

915
00:44:00,960 --> 00:44:03,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, So Braga they're interesting because they've been in the

916
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:05,799
Speaker 4: Europa League for a long time now. They've kind of

917
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,520
Speaker 4: been the like the fourth wheel in Portugal forever. You know,

918
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:13,360
Speaker 4: it's been Sporting Benefica and Porto and then there's Braga

919
00:44:13,400 --> 00:44:15,399
Speaker 4: sitting here. They've always been the fourth best team and

920
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:18,560
Speaker 4: last season they were better than Sporting so now they

921
00:44:18,560 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 4: have a chance here to play in the Champions League.

922
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 4: And throughout all of last season. What really dred drives

923
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 4: me here to the under is that when they have

924
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 4: played a home against good teams they will sit in

925
00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 4: a four to four to two and they have put

926
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 4: up good expected goals numbers against those teams. They have

927
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,399
Speaker 4: held Porto to under one expected goal at home, they

928
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:37,920
Speaker 4: held Benafica to under one expected goal at home. They

929
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,680
Speaker 4: basically kept everybody from last season. And Napoli it's like

930
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 4: you mentioned, Michael, they were the darlings last season. If

931
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 4: you look through their numbers this season, it's been kind

932
00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 4: of stagnant to begin you know, their last match against Genawa,

933
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,960
Speaker 4: they could create under one expected goal. Even against Lazio,

934
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:52,800
Speaker 4: even though they were supposed to, you know, they should

935
00:44:52,800 --> 00:44:56,280
Speaker 4: have won that match, only created one point three. People

936
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,279
Speaker 4: know what Napoli is gonna do. They know how they're

937
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,799
Speaker 4: slow matic build up style. They want a key in

938
00:45:01,920 --> 00:45:04,440
Speaker 4: Kabar Scalia. They want to create space for Oceman in

939
00:45:04,440 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 4: the middle, and teams are just not allowing them to

940
00:45:06,000 --> 00:45:08,720
Speaker 4: do that. And that's kind of what you saw, especially

941
00:45:08,719 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 4: against Lazio, where yes they didn't deserve to win it,

942
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:12,879
Speaker 4: but they also clogged in the middle of the pitch

943
00:45:12,960 --> 00:45:15,280
Speaker 4: very well and took away two of Naplei's best players.

944
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,240
Speaker 4: And I'm not sure Napoli really has the other players

945
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:23,319
Speaker 4: to really really effectively break down decent low blocks and

946
00:45:23,360 --> 00:45:26,160
Speaker 4: we'll see. Maybe I'll be wrong and they'll win this match. Three.

947
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 4: Nothing on the road, but especially going on the road here, Benett,

948
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 4: when Brice he has the benefit of Braga is going

949
00:45:31,320 --> 00:45:32,759
Speaker 4: to sit in a four to four to two and

950
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:34,839
Speaker 4: does have some talented players to be able to get

951
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,600
Speaker 4: at them. In transition, I think it's a decent spot

952
00:45:37,640 --> 00:45:39,880
Speaker 4: to back an under I only projected two point three goals,

953
00:45:39,920 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 4: so under two and a half at plus one ten

954
00:45:42,400 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 4: is good enough for.

955
00:45:43,239 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 1: Me antony anything you wanted to add here.

956
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 3: The thing about Braga though, is that they're like not

957
00:45:48,840 --> 00:45:53,560
Speaker 3: actually that good in Portugal. They finished last year with

958
00:45:53,640 --> 00:45:56,240
Speaker 3: the fourth best underline numbers. They got in because Sporting

959
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 3: ran really bad all year. This year already Porto plus

960
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 3: five point two extra difference total, Benfica plus five point eight,

961
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:06,839
Speaker 3: Braga is plus one. Now, it's a small sample, and

962
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:08,959
Speaker 3: you know they haven't played any of the top teams either,

963
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:13,480
Speaker 3: but Braga last season was a huge step below those

964
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 3: other Portuguese teams. And look, we've seen Portugal do well

965
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:18,160
Speaker 3: in this tournament and so I'm not going to discount them.

966
00:46:18,520 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 3: The market has moved toward Napoli here, which is why

967
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:22,279
Speaker 3: I'm not betting them anymore. I'm really mad because I

968
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:23,960
Speaker 3: missed the minus one oh five and now it's like

969
00:46:23,960 --> 00:46:26,279
Speaker 3: minus one twenty twenty five thirty and I don't want

970
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,000
Speaker 3: to lay that, so I'm passing. But if you see

971
00:46:29,040 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 3: money come back in on Braga and it's not injury

972
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 3: related to Napoli, I'm happy to fire on Napoli. Two

973
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 3: poor results Lazio Jedowa, But again we have enough of

974
00:46:38,719 --> 00:46:40,400
Speaker 3: a sample to know what this team is and I

975
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,360
Speaker 3: still really like the midfield. I think they're gonna be

976
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:44,240
Speaker 3: very effective in Champions League.

977
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: The Bayern United, that's groupe.

978
00:46:47,040 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 5: The other groupe matches Colataserai out of Turkey minus one

979
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 5: sixty seven hosting Copenhagen plus four twenty five. Yeah, all

980
00:46:55,719 --> 00:46:58,839
Speaker 5: three of us are on on the Turkish club here.

981
00:47:00,200 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, I am tempted to lay the one

982
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 3: because Copenhagen's results home and away have been extremely extreme.

983
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:10,480
Speaker 3: They have been basically non relevant away from home. But

984
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 3: they actually had three jaws last year against City the

985
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 3: lucky red card. But against City, against Dortmund and against

986
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 3: Sivia they were better than Dortmann and Sevia in the

987
00:47:19,360 --> 00:47:22,319
Speaker 3: away mat and the home matches. Away from home, they

988
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 3: got the breaks beat off them in all three matches,

989
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 3: so I think that there's real home and away splits

990
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,720
Speaker 3: there that are more meaningful maybe than the market is capturing.

991
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:32,239
Speaker 3: And this has gone back a couple of years now

992
00:47:32,239 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 3: with Copenhagen when they've been in the Champions League. So

993
00:47:35,560 --> 00:47:38,600
Speaker 3: maybe I'll lay the one, but again I'm kind of

994
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,759
Speaker 3: just double leveraging myself on the same position, which is

995
00:47:40,760 --> 00:47:44,239
Speaker 3: that Gahatasri is underrated by the market and thus I

996
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 3: do think they're a little undervalued here, but I'm not

997
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:47,799
Speaker 3: betting them necessarily off to think about it.

998
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:51,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I was gonna say Copenhagen last season in the

999
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:56,080
Speaker 4: Danish Super League conceded over one point four actually for

1000
00:47:56,200 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 4: ninety that's second worst of anybody in the Champions League,

1001
00:47:59,160 --> 00:48:04,879
Speaker 4: behind only Sevilla. So yeah, I agree that very young.

1002
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:06,840
Speaker 4: They're very young, like they have a lot of young players,

1003
00:48:06,880 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 4: and that gets sold usually at the end of you know,

1004
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:13,359
Speaker 4: this cycle, whatever it is. But yeah, I think if

1005
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 4: it were me, I would I would just wait. If

1006
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,799
Speaker 4: you have a gallatast ride to advanced ticket, I would

1007
00:48:18,840 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 4: just kind of want to wait and see what what

1008
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 4: Copenhagen is now in the Champions League, and.

1009
00:48:23,719 --> 00:48:25,200
Speaker 5: It is it is one of the twelve forty five.

1010
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,160
Speaker 5: The other one is is Madrid in Junyan. But uh,

1011
00:48:28,320 --> 00:48:32,560
Speaker 5: the atmosphere for Gallatasta is going to.

1012
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,760
Speaker 4: Be one of the best home field advantages in Europe.

1013
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:38,720
Speaker 1: Yeah, honestly worth to watch.

1014
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:45,040
Speaker 5: And if you're sweating the two advanced numbers with us

1015
00:48:45,120 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 5: and so on, and that the two fifty.

1016
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: To one to win the whole shebang, we forgot about that.

1017
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:50,799
Speaker 4: Yep.

1018
00:48:51,239 --> 00:48:54,040
Speaker 5: We want to get off on the right foot, all right.

1019
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:56,720
Speaker 5: We saved the best for last, and that's Bjay's boys.

1020
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,799
Speaker 5: Sevilla minus one eighteen and home hosting Lens plus three

1021
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:03,600
Speaker 5: money in the truck is plus two fifty nothing here

1022
00:49:03,640 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 5: for me, bj.

1023
00:49:05,719 --> 00:49:08,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really, I mean I really wanted to fade

1024
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:10,600
Speaker 4: Sevilla in this and then I ran my projections and

1025
00:49:10,640 --> 00:49:13,960
Speaker 4: I was like, you know, I have Sevilla sitting around,

1026
00:49:14,239 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 4: you know, plus one twenty, So I mean, I could

1027
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:17,960
Speaker 4: make a case for the Lens, but they've been so

1028
00:49:18,080 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 4: bad out of the gates here.

1029
00:49:19,680 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, better than Sevilla. That's crazy to.

1030
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 4: Me in this count Yeah, of course, Lens.

1031
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 3: Lens is lost. I mean, for fine Ponda man, that

1032
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,800
Speaker 3: was like everything, but here added a bit of insanity.

1033
00:49:31,840 --> 00:49:32,359
Speaker 3: Run is over.

1034
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 4: But Sevilla's numbers have been so bad for so long,

1035
00:49:36,120 --> 00:49:38,520
Speaker 4: Like I can't, I can't get over minus say to

1036
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:41,800
Speaker 4: expect a gold differential in Spain, Anthony, that's that's awful.

1037
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 4: Like I understand that won the Europa League. It was

1038
00:49:43,680 --> 00:49:46,600
Speaker 4: a complete luck box. And yes, Lens has lost everybody,

1039
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 4: but I mean, yes, slight. I would have them as

1040
00:49:49,239 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 4: a slight, slight favorite in a neutral field, yeah, I would.

1041
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,320
Speaker 4: I mean they're not. It's still early, Like you know,

1042
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:57,719
Speaker 4: I understand they lost everybody, and they've been horrible out

1043
00:49:57,760 --> 00:49:59,880
Speaker 4: of the gates, and by the time we're halfway through

1044
00:49:59,920 --> 00:50:01,760
Speaker 4: the and these two teams are playing on the final

1045
00:50:02,080 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 4: match week, like, yeah, I probably might will have Savia

1046
00:50:04,520 --> 00:50:08,160
Speaker 4: as a neutral field favorite, but as it stands right now, no,

1047
00:50:08,239 --> 00:50:10,399
Speaker 4: I would have Lens as a slight favor on the road.

1048
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:14,960
Speaker 3: Yeah, so excuse me, Sylvia at home, happy to have

1049
00:50:15,000 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 3: the ball and do nothing with it. Lens does not

1050
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,520
Speaker 3: have the attacking playmaking to do anything right now to

1051
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,520
Speaker 3: expose what is a pretty weak Sevie defense, like this

1052
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:24,640
Speaker 3: would have been I mean, if a Panda and Fa

1053
00:50:24,719 --> 00:50:27,040
Speaker 3: Finna still played for this team, I would have loved,

1054
00:50:27,480 --> 00:50:30,000
Speaker 3: loved bet. Lens is a road dog here, but like

1055
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 3: I don't know how, I don't know how Lens creates

1056
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:36,279
Speaker 3: chances consistently as bad as Syvia has been. So I

1057
00:50:36,320 --> 00:50:40,120
Speaker 3: think that there's you know, maybe an under, but I

1058
00:50:40,160 --> 00:50:41,680
Speaker 3: have enough unders on the board that I like more

1059
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:43,400
Speaker 3: than I'm I'm not going to sit down for the

1060
00:50:43,480 --> 00:50:45,640
Speaker 3: Champions League Tuesday with six unders and say, all right,

1061
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:45,960
Speaker 3: here we go.

1062
00:50:46,000 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 1: Guys.

1063
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, were fun, and I have a couple that I

1064
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:49,520
Speaker 3: like more so.

1065
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,160
Speaker 1: Pass all right.

1066
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:54,480
Speaker 3: I'm hoping for a job because that'll be good for

1067
00:50:55,960 --> 00:50:58,799
Speaker 3: the rest of the group, which I you know, think

1068
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:00,440
Speaker 3: they're going to advance from.

1069
00:51:00,760 --> 00:51:05,160
Speaker 1: That wraps up the big board. Pretty good job. Sixteen matches.

1070
00:51:05,200 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 1: We got to spend a little time with each one

1071
00:51:07,080 --> 00:51:07,359
Speaker 1: of them.

1072
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:09,960
Speaker 5: But now we'll give out our favorite bets for match

1073
00:51:09,960 --> 00:51:11,399
Speaker 5: Week one in the Champions League.

1074
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: Anthony, you can go first.

1075
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 3: Ac Milan Newcastle under two and a half plus one twenty.

1076
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:19,479
Speaker 3: I think this match sets up as the first group

1077
00:51:19,520 --> 00:51:21,719
Speaker 3: stage match where both teams don't really want to lose

1078
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,439
Speaker 3: it and we have constantly seen if there's anything true

1079
00:51:24,440 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 3: about Pioli and how how will not take chances in possession?

1080
00:51:28,840 --> 00:51:32,240
Speaker 3: Milan will not take chances out of possession, Acey Milan,

1081
00:51:32,400 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 3: you know their attack has become a little bit stagnant

1082
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 3: on just Leo thus far. I like the additions they've made,

1083
00:51:40,040 --> 00:51:43,160
Speaker 3: but again, playing against an elite defense, which Newcastle is,

1084
00:51:43,960 --> 00:51:46,000
Speaker 3: it's gonna be hard for them to consistently create chances

1085
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:48,640
Speaker 3: and Newcastle's not gonna take those chances out of possession.

1086
00:51:48,640 --> 00:51:51,040
Speaker 3: So the longer this game stays a stalemate, the less

1087
00:51:51,520 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 3: I think this game opens up. So under two and

1088
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:55,959
Speaker 3: a half, I think it should be you know, minus

1089
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:57,640
Speaker 3: one ten, but I'm getting plus one twenty, so I'm

1090
00:51:57,680 --> 00:51:59,399
Speaker 3: gonna take the.

1091
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 5: For me, I'm going Manchester United baby on the money

1092
00:52:05,120 --> 00:52:09,920
Speaker 5: line plus four fifty. One of the best practices you

1093
00:52:09,960 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 5: can develop in sports betting. I don't care what sport

1094
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 5: it is, Anthony. I don't care if it's soccer, I

1095
00:52:14,320 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 5: don't care if it's rugby union. I don't care if

1096
00:52:16,120 --> 00:52:20,040
Speaker 5: it's rugby league. I don't care if it's baseball. Our

1097
00:52:20,080 --> 00:52:24,279
Speaker 5: sports finding the right time to buy low and this

1098
00:52:24,360 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 5: is it. The United stock price quite literally on the

1099
00:52:28,120 --> 00:52:32,920
Speaker 5: Stock Exchange is plummeted after some ugly, ugly performances domestically

1100
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:37,759
Speaker 5: most recently against Brighton. But we know that this team

1101
00:52:37,840 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 5: is more likely than not to figure things out, and

1102
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:42,840
Speaker 5: I think this matchup actually fits what they're trying to

1103
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 5: do pretty well. They can cause Bayern a team that

1104
00:52:47,280 --> 00:52:53,040
Speaker 5: is absolutely dangerous going forward and could just as easily

1105
00:52:53,120 --> 00:52:56,400
Speaker 5: route this match and make me look foolish, but they

1106
00:52:56,440 --> 00:52:59,520
Speaker 5: have some serious issues. When the ball starts going the

1107
00:52:59,520 --> 00:53:02,800
Speaker 5: other way, it gets quick transition teams and when United's

1108
00:53:02,800 --> 00:53:04,360
Speaker 5: at their bets, that's what they're doing.

1109
00:53:05,040 --> 00:53:07,440
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take a shot.

1110
00:53:08,080 --> 00:53:10,239
Speaker 5: Not many people going to be on United after the

1111
00:53:10,320 --> 00:53:12,319
Speaker 5: performances we've seen. That's when I like to get in

1112
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 5: friendless in the market. The Red Devils will be, but

1113
00:53:15,960 --> 00:53:16,759
Speaker 5: I'll be there for them.

1114
00:53:16,840 --> 00:53:19,839
Speaker 1: Plus four fifty bj what do you got?

1115
00:53:20,400 --> 00:53:22,760
Speaker 4: Let's keep the fun rolling with the unders. Real Madrid

1116
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 4: Unyan Berlin under two and a half at plus one fifteen.

1117
00:53:26,080 --> 00:53:28,160
Speaker 4: Unjan Blin is quite literally going to park the bus

1118
00:53:28,200 --> 00:53:30,880
Speaker 4: at the Bernabout in front of the eighteen yard bocks,

1119
00:53:30,960 --> 00:53:33,600
Speaker 4: and I have real concerns about how Real Madrid is

1120
00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:36,360
Speaker 4: actually going to effectively break down low blocks. In the past,

1121
00:53:36,560 --> 00:53:39,399
Speaker 4: they've had Kareem Benzema, who is an elite striker and

1122
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 4: really helped them, you know, break down these teams that

1123
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:43,879
Speaker 4: are going to play five at the back. Now they

1124
00:53:43,920 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 4: don't really have a striker. It's just just salor in

1125
00:53:46,120 --> 00:53:49,800
Speaker 4: the middle of the pitch. You know, if Fredericka Valverde

1126
00:53:50,000 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 4: and Jude Bellingham have been you know, great going forward,

1127
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,759
Speaker 4: getting a decent number of production. But you know, with

1128
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:58,120
Speaker 4: Aul Venicius Jun you're on the left, it's that there's

1129
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 4: really not a lot of attacking players that can really

1130
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:03,040
Speaker 4: get into the box, and so it's easier when you're

1131
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 4: real Madrid and you're playing you know, specifically in transition

1132
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 4: and can get you Bellingham to invade the box. But

1133
00:54:09,080 --> 00:54:12,840
Speaker 4: when U Blin is gonna sit eight guys just jam

1134
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:14,840
Speaker 4: packed in the middle, it's gonna be very, very difficult

1135
00:54:14,840 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 4: to break them down. They had great defensive numbers in

1136
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,799
Speaker 4: Germany last season. They've had had a couple bad performances,

1137
00:54:19,800 --> 00:54:22,320
Speaker 4: but they had a great performance at Wolfsburg over the weekend.

1138
00:54:22,360 --> 00:54:24,879
Speaker 4: I know they lost two to one, only conceded point

1139
00:54:24,920 --> 00:54:27,440
Speaker 4: four x GI. So Union Blin is going to be

1140
00:54:27,480 --> 00:54:29,760
Speaker 4: playing for a point and it's gonna be a very slow,

1141
00:54:30,080 --> 00:54:33,080
Speaker 4: sluggish match. I only project two point one four goals,

1142
00:54:33,160 --> 00:54:35,080
Speaker 4: so I like under two and a half of plus

1143
00:54:35,080 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 4: one fifteen.

1144
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 5: All right, that'll do it for our first Champions League

1145
00:54:40,040 --> 00:54:42,600
Speaker 5: match week preview of the season. Good to be back

1146
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 5: on Sunday nights recording with you two gentlemen. We will

1147
00:54:47,080 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 5: be back on Thursday morning in your feed to preview

1148
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 5: the upcoming Premier League.

1149
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:55,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, I can't wait.

1150
00:54:56,800 --> 00:55:01,439
Speaker 1: And another evident this week they lose.

1151
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:06,399
Speaker 5: They're losing three to one to Brentford at Brentford. Right, yes,

1152
00:55:07,040 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 5: so it's already over. But yeah, that's what we're looking

1153
00:55:10,680 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 5: forward to.

1154
00:55:11,160 --> 00:55:13,600
Speaker 1: I might not be here. Don't be alarmed. It's not

1155
00:55:13,640 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 1: Everden related. It's ran out of money.

1156
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:18,920
Speaker 3: He needs he needs to pick up a side He

1157
00:55:19,000 --> 00:55:20,480
Speaker 3: ran out of money betting everything. He needs to pick

1158
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:21,960
Speaker 3: up a side job on Wednesday nights.

1159
00:55:22,000 --> 00:55:26,200
Speaker 5: It's for Anthony Debundo and VJ Cunningham.

1160
00:55:26,200 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 1: I'm Michael Leeboff.

1161
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:31,280
Speaker 5: Besa luck with your first Champions League bets of the season.

1162
00:55:40,920 --> 00:55:45,440
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1163
00:55:45,480 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1164
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler