1 00:00:01,120 --> 00:00:04,280 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Crows PGA podcast. I'm Pat fitz Morris, 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:06,279 Speaker 1: joined by mister Bawa mcbrair. 3 00:00:06,800 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 2: We had our first. 4 00:00:08,160 --> 00:00:12,080 Speaker 1: Monday finish of the PGA Tour season at the Players Championship. 5 00:00:12,400 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: Rory McElroy beat JJ Spahn in a three hole aggregate 6 00:00:15,800 --> 00:00:19,520 Speaker 1: playoff on Monday morning, not all that long before the recording. 7 00:00:19,120 --> 00:00:19,639 Speaker 2: Of this show. 8 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: We'll briefly recap the Players Championship. We'll give you a 9 00:00:23,239 --> 00:00:26,920 Speaker 1: full betting preview of this week's Bellspar Championship, including the 10 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 1: bets we're making ourselves, and we will make one and 11 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:32,080 Speaker 1: done picks at the end of the show. You do 12 00:00:32,200 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: not want to get into a playoff against an irishman 13 00:00:35,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 1: On Saint Patrick's Day. Rory McElroy takes down JJ Spahn 14 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 1: in a three hole aggregate playoff in Chile windy conditions 15 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 1: Monday morning at Sawgrass. It was only the second three 16 00:00:46,360 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: hole aggregate playoff in tournament history. Ricky Fowler won the 17 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:53,959 Speaker 1: first one ten years ago over Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner. 18 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:57,240 Speaker 1: That one actually won five holes because Fowler and Kisner 19 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 1: were tied after the first three playoff holes and Follower 20 00:01:01,960 --> 00:01:04,080 Speaker 1: had been five shots behind with six holes to play 21 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: and made a late charge to get into a playoff 22 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: that was a pretty memorable tournament. This time, Rory won 23 00:01:09,080 --> 00:01:11,920 Speaker 1: pretty handily in the playoff. He birdied the par five 24 00:01:11,920 --> 00:01:14,479 Speaker 1: to sixteenth hole to take a one shot lead. At 25 00:01:14,480 --> 00:01:17,880 Speaker 1: the par three seventeenth with the famous Island Green, Rory 26 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:21,040 Speaker 1: safely found the middle of the green and then Spawn 27 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:24,280 Speaker 1: airmailed his t shot over the green into the water. 28 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 1: He wound up with a triple bogie. Rory had a 29 00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 1: three put bogie himself, but he still took a three 30 00:01:28,959 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: shot lead into the final hole. Both players missed the 31 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: fairway wide right, but Rory was able to make an 32 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:38,600 Speaker 1: easy bogie to get his twenty eighth PGA Tour victory. 33 00:01:38,760 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: I'm guessing he and his cady probably celebrated with a 34 00:01:41,440 --> 00:01:44,680 Speaker 1: pint of guinness or two after his round. Spawn had 35 00:01:44,720 --> 00:01:47,320 Speaker 1: led the tournament by one stroke going into the final round. 36 00:01:47,680 --> 00:01:51,000 Speaker 1: Since two thousand and seven, ten players have taken a 37 00:01:51,000 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 1: one shot lead into the final day of the Players Championship. 38 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:57,760 Speaker 1: None of those ten players won the tournament. Rory got 39 00:01:57,800 --> 00:01:59,800 Speaker 1: off to a fast start on Sunday with a birdie 40 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 1: and an eagle on his first two holes. He was 41 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: leading late Sunday, but Spawn fought back. Clutch berdie for 42 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,280 Speaker 1: Spawn on the sixteenth hole, and then Spawn had a 43 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 1: chance to win it with a thirty foot birdy pot 44 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 1: on eighteen he left his pott in the throat just 45 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:17,040 Speaker 1: three inches short of the hole, so playoff it was 46 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: and Rory prevailed. Tom hogy Aksha Beati and Lucas Glover 47 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 1: finished two shots back. Justin Thomas had an interesting tournament. 48 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,800 Speaker 1: Opened with a seventy eight on Thursday, but then shot 49 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,960 Speaker 1: a blistering sixty two on Friday to make the cut. 50 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: But Thomas wasn't able to seriously contend had a pair 51 00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:37,160 Speaker 1: of seventy threes on the weekend. This was a fun tournament, 52 00:02:37,200 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: bo we got some pretty serious win on the weekend 53 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 1: that made for difficult scoring conditions. All things considered, I'm 54 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,440 Speaker 1: surprised the winning score was minus twelve. What did you 55 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:48,160 Speaker 1: make of this year's Players Championship? 56 00:02:48,680 --> 00:02:53,280 Speaker 3: Once again, TPC Sagrass is the ultimate risk reward golf course, 57 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 3: except it was all risk on the weekend with those 58 00:02:56,080 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 3: high wins. There was a lot said about the how 59 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,440 Speaker 3: kind of benign and pedestrian the conditions were. The first 60 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 3: two days, but Saturday really let you know with the 61 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:12,639 Speaker 3: teeth of a pete dye design. And it started off 62 00:03:12,680 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 3: as we thought that the pm AM was going to 63 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 3: be the wave that got the favoritism with the weather. 64 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:21,080 Speaker 3: It didn't end up mattering at the end because of 65 00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:23,800 Speaker 3: the way the cut went and the way that everybody 66 00:03:23,880 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 3: kind of separated themselves based on how while they scrambled 67 00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:30,800 Speaker 3: in tough conditions, the Irishman rose to the top again 68 00:03:30,840 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 3: in tougher conditions. But then you saw some of those specialists, 69 00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:38,120 Speaker 3: those ball striking specialists rise to the top. JJ Spond's 70 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 3: had a really good run of ball striking this season. 71 00:03:41,000 --> 00:03:43,080 Speaker 3: He's kind of taken on a new form in his 72 00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,160 Speaker 3: career this season. So I'm interested to see more out 73 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 3: of JJ Spahd going forward on golf courses of this nature. 74 00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 3: Rory McElroy figured out how to hit a wedge approach 75 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,840 Speaker 3: and that's why he won this tournament. Is his achilles 76 00:03:56,920 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 3: heel in the last couple of years has been his 77 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 3: ability to take advantage of good drives. We know that 78 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,200 Speaker 3: Rory is the best off the tee that there is 79 00:04:05,240 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: on the PGA Tour distance and accuracy. He hasn't always 80 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 3: been able to cash in with those short approach shots 81 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 3: short irons, and at Pebble Beach and now at TPC Sawgrass, 82 00:04:16,440 --> 00:04:20,320 Speaker 3: he's shown a different dimension to his game that can 83 00:04:20,440 --> 00:04:25,080 Speaker 3: easily rival Scottie Scheffler on any golf course. This Rory 84 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:26,800 Speaker 3: McElroy guy might be good guys. 85 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:29,919 Speaker 1: Yeah, And the funny thing is like Rory was not 86 00:04:30,120 --> 00:04:33,800 Speaker 1: always dialed in with his driver in this tournament, but 87 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: he was resorted to be Yeah, he found other ways 88 00:04:37,279 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: to get it done and JJ Spawn yeah tough that 89 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:41,840 Speaker 1: he was not able to seal the deal. 90 00:04:41,880 --> 00:04:44,360 Speaker 2: He's only had one career victory. 91 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:45,960 Speaker 1: On the PGA Tour and more than two hundred starts, 92 00:04:46,000 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 1: but he's had a lot of top tens and I 93 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: would not be surprised if Spawn found his way into 94 00:04:50,920 --> 00:04:54,279 Speaker 1: contention in the weeks to come. And I think the 95 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,919 Speaker 1: one win was at the Valero Texas Open, which is 96 00:04:56,960 --> 00:04:59,280 Speaker 1: coming up in a couple of weeks, So maybe he 97 00:04:59,320 --> 00:05:02,279 Speaker 1: can be great to see Spawn get back into the 98 00:05:02,279 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 1: Winter circle. Now we will get into the Valspar Championship 99 00:05:06,000 --> 00:05:06,719 Speaker 1: in just a moment. 100 00:05:06,880 --> 00:05:10,400 Speaker 3: But first, download the free Betting pros app for iOS 101 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:14,520 Speaker 3: and Android with Sportsbooks Sinc. Automatically track gear bets across 102 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 3: all major sportsbooks in one spot. Easily monitor your bet 103 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 3: performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props, 104 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,640 Speaker 3: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends 105 00:05:26,839 --> 00:05:30,440 Speaker 3: and profitable opportunities. Get a free trial of Betting Pros 106 00:05:30,480 --> 00:05:33,760 Speaker 3: Premium by downloading the app at bettingpros dot com slash 107 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 3: apps and activating your trial on the upgrade screen. 108 00:05:37,480 --> 00:05:40,440 Speaker 1: The Valspar Championship is the fourth and final stop on 109 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:43,240 Speaker 1: the PGA Tour's Florida Swing. It will be played on 110 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: the Copperhead Course at the Innisbrouk Resort in Palm Harbor, Florida, 111 00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: to par seventy one, measuring seven three and fifty two yards. 112 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,720 Speaker 1: The Florida courses are some of the toughest on tour, 113 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 1: and Copperhead is no exception. This course is known for 114 00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,840 Speaker 1: its narrow tree line fairways, its numerous it's dog legs, 115 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:05,200 Speaker 1: it's chewy rough, and it's speedy Bermuda greens. There's water 116 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:07,359 Speaker 1: on nine of the holes, and it can get pretty 117 00:06:07,360 --> 00:06:10,400 Speaker 1: breezy at Copperhead since it's near the Gulf. The par 118 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:13,719 Speaker 1: threes are extremely challenging. There are five of them. The 119 00:06:13,800 --> 00:06:16,839 Speaker 1: shortest among them is one hundred ninety five yards. The 120 00:06:16,880 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 1: other four are all two hundred yards are longer, so 121 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:21,359 Speaker 1: long iron play is going to be pretty important at 122 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: Valspar this week because the fairways at this course are 123 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 1: so narrow. We're going to see players keep the driver 124 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:28,800 Speaker 1: in the bag on a lot of these holes. But 125 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:32,080 Speaker 1: even with irons or fairway metals in their hands, pros 126 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:34,360 Speaker 1: are still going to have a hard time finding fairways. 127 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: Being a bomber off the tee is not that big 128 00:06:36,960 --> 00:06:37,720 Speaker 1: an advantage. 129 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 2: At Copperhead. 130 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,479 Speaker 1: It is important to score well in the par fives here, 131 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:44,279 Speaker 1: but one of them is six hundred five yards, anothers 132 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: five hundred and ninety yards. You had better get your 133 00:06:46,920 --> 00:06:49,800 Speaker 1: birdie on the opening hole bow Copperhead is one of 134 00:06:49,800 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: the few courses on tour to start with a par five, 135 00:06:52,120 --> 00:06:54,400 Speaker 1: and number one at Copperhead is the shortest par five 136 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 1: on the course, five hundred and sixty yards. We'll get 137 00:06:57,600 --> 00:07:01,839 Speaker 1: Bermuda greens once again, so the bermudas salists are attractive targets. 138 00:07:02,520 --> 00:07:06,039 Speaker 1: The weather forecast for the Valspar temperatures expected to arrange 139 00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: from the upper sixties to the mid seventies this week, 140 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: dry and mostly sunny in the forecast that could mean 141 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: a firm, fast course. It's expected to be breezy on Thursday, 142 00:07:16,200 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: with wins of ten to twenty miles an hour. On Friday, 143 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:20,880 Speaker 1: the winds are expected to blow at ten to fifteen 144 00:07:20,920 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: miles an hour, and then it gets calmer on the 145 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:24,880 Speaker 1: weekend with wins of five to ten miles an hour. 146 00:07:26,080 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 1: Peter Malnoddy is the defending champion. Mel Naughty was a 147 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:32,040 Speaker 1: surprise winner last year with a score of twelve under par, 148 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 1: two shots better than Cameron Young. Spoiler alert, I'm not 149 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: betting Peter Malnoddy to repeat this week. Taylor Moore won 150 00:07:38,640 --> 00:07:40,840 Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty three with the score of ten under, 151 00:07:40,880 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 1: one shot better than Adam Shank. Sam Burns won the 152 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:47,080 Speaker 1: Valspar in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two. He 153 00:07:47,200 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: was seventeen under par in both of his wins. There 154 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:52,720 Speaker 1: was no Valspar in twenty twenty due to Covid and 155 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,360 Speaker 1: Paul Casey head back to back wins at the Valspar 156 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: in twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. Bow your thoughts on 157 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: Copperhead and what it's going to take to win here. 158 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:03,880 Speaker 3: Another difficult Florida golf course. They've got it figured out. 159 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 3: You don't need to have above average distance on any 160 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:11,160 Speaker 3: of these courses. Really, there's this is a full bag challenge. 161 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 3: It's just something that's interesting about the Copperhead course at Innisbrook. 162 00:08:16,360 --> 00:08:18,080 Speaker 3: The first hole is the easiest to hole on the 163 00:08:18,080 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 3: golf course. So, like you said, you got to make 164 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,600 Speaker 3: your hay on those par fives, especially number one. If 165 00:08:23,640 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 3: you're making anything worse than birdie on number one, you're 166 00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,840 Speaker 3: not going to have a much easier time because it's 167 00:08:31,880 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 3: going to get narrower and narrower and more and more 168 00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,839 Speaker 3: difficult as the round culminates with the snake pit. You 169 00:08:37,920 --> 00:08:42,120 Speaker 3: got Moccasin, you got rattler, you have Copperhead sixteen, seventeen, 170 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 3: and eighteen the third most difficult non major finishing stretch 171 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 3: on the PGA Tour, and it's because the field since 172 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 3: two thousand and three is hitting the greens on those 173 00:08:53,600 --> 00:08:57,640 Speaker 3: three holes at less than fifty percent clip, including thirty 174 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 3: six percent on the sixteenth toll Moccasin, which is one 175 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: of the most difficult holes period on the PGA Tour. 176 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 3: In this Brook has got teeth, it's got the cool name, 177 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:12,120 Speaker 3: it's got the snake pit, and as far as finishing 178 00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:15,040 Speaker 3: stretches go, it's not necessarily the risk reward we saw 179 00:09:15,200 --> 00:09:17,560 Speaker 3: last week we had sixteen being the easiest hole on 180 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:20,080 Speaker 3: the golf course, seventeen being the island Green where you 181 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 3: can make birdie or triple, and then eighteen being brutally difficult. 182 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:27,439 Speaker 3: Now it's difficult, difficult, difficult, and it's just going to 183 00:09:27,480 --> 00:09:31,800 Speaker 3: be about surviving on Sunday, finishing up with hopefully with 184 00:09:31,840 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 3: a championship. But accuracy is the name of the game 185 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,360 Speaker 3: at Copperhead, especially off the tee. You have to be 186 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:40,880 Speaker 3: able to hit fairways and good drives gained is a 187 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 3: big metric here, as well as approach, especially from one 188 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:48,160 Speaker 3: to seventy five onward. This is going to be a 189 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 3: course that challenges all of these guys. Even though the 190 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 3: field is stronger than in years past. We have some 191 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,959 Speaker 3: pretty big names in attendance that at the valspar some 192 00:09:58,040 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 3: of them are trying to just get into the mass. 193 00:10:00,920 --> 00:10:04,040 Speaker 3: I'm very interested to see what kind of guys rise 194 00:10:04,080 --> 00:10:05,559 Speaker 3: to the top here at this tournament. 195 00:10:05,640 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, we do have some of the top guys sitting out. 196 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:09,559 Speaker 1: Scottie Scheffler is not going to be here, but there 197 00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:11,440 Speaker 1: are a lot of good players in the field, so 198 00:10:11,520 --> 00:10:13,839 Speaker 1: let's get to the odds. All odds are courtesy of 199 00:10:13,920 --> 00:10:17,400 Speaker 1: DraftKings as of Monday morning. Some of the odds may 200 00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:20,480 Speaker 1: have changed by the time you consume this show. We'll 201 00:10:20,520 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: start with some of the favorites. Justin Thomas, Xander Schoffley 202 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:26,600 Speaker 1: and Tommy Fleetwood are the three way co favorites at 203 00:10:26,600 --> 00:10:30,559 Speaker 1: fourteen to one. Sepstraca and two time Valspar Champ Sam 204 00:10:30,640 --> 00:10:33,960 Speaker 1: Burns are twenty two to one. Will Zalatoris, Corey Connors 205 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,680 Speaker 1: and Shane Lowry are twenty five to one. Tom Kim 206 00:10:36,720 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 1: and Akshay Battia are thirty to one, Jordan Spieth is 207 00:10:39,679 --> 00:10:42,520 Speaker 1: thirty five to one, and Alex Smalley and Michael Kim 208 00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 1: are forty to one. Are you interested in any of 209 00:10:45,120 --> 00:10:45,600 Speaker 1: the favorites? 210 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 3: Ball Absolutely, and honestly. As much as I love Justin 211 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,880 Speaker 3: Thomas and Xander Schoffley, I think that they're struggling with 212 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:55,480 Speaker 3: the parts of their game that are going to be 213 00:10:55,600 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 3: exposed at Copperhead, So I'm not betting on either one 214 00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,360 Speaker 3: of those. For the first time. I'm going to bet 215 00:11:01,400 --> 00:11:04,520 Speaker 3: on Tommy Fleetwood to win a golf tournament. Really it's 216 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:06,920 Speaker 3: the first time I've ever done it, because he's never 217 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 3: won anything ever. I think this is where he gets 218 00:11:09,120 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 3: his first win. So fourteen to one for a favorite, 219 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,720 Speaker 3: that's a great number anyway, and I think that number 220 00:11:15,840 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 3: might actually kind of go longer as we get along 221 00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,160 Speaker 3: in the week. Fourteen to one today on Monday, but 222 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,040 Speaker 3: I think as we get closer to Locke, you're going 223 00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: to see more money get put on JT and Shoftley 224 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,760 Speaker 3: and kind of push Tommy kind of into that mid 225 00:11:28,800 --> 00:11:32,679 Speaker 3: teens and maybe even to twenty to one. That's great 226 00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:35,520 Speaker 3: for us because I think Tommy Fleetwood has the exact game, 227 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,160 Speaker 3: the grinder mentality to get it done. This is the 228 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 3: kind of course where I expect Tommy Fleetwood to hang 229 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 3: in there and to make hay. And then of course 230 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 3: I cannot ignore the big Austria Sepstraca another golf course 231 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 3: where accuracy is a premium. There's not a more accurate 232 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,640 Speaker 3: player from Tita Green in this field than Sepstraca going 233 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:58,959 Speaker 3: the last twenty four rounds. And why not look at 234 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,760 Speaker 3: Michael Kim, one of the hottest golfers in the world. 235 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 3: We're getting a nice bump back into normal territory at 236 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:08,840 Speaker 3: forty to one. But he's his miscut is last week 237 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:11,440 Speaker 3: is the reason for that. Missed the cut the Players, 238 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 3: but up until then top ten streak, going back to 239 00:12:14,720 --> 00:12:17,560 Speaker 3: the waste management, Michael Kim's got the game to play here. 240 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 3: I've also looked at Alex Smalley because of the way 241 00:12:20,880 --> 00:12:23,000 Speaker 3: he's been playing lately. He's all set forty to one. 242 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:26,520 Speaker 3: Those guys are all in on my card early on. 243 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:29,920 Speaker 3: Let's see how much investment I get going forward. But 244 00:12:30,440 --> 00:12:33,640 Speaker 3: Tommy Fleetwood steps track on Michael Kim or where I'm starting. 245 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, and Kim missed the cut at the Players, but 246 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 1: he was even par. It wasn't like he played poorly. 247 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:44,160 Speaker 1: So Tommy Fleetwood, I'm my one yep one shot off 248 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:48,079 Speaker 1: the cut. Tommy Fleetwood finished eleventh last week of the Players, 249 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:51,280 Speaker 1: and had he not kind of stumbled home on Saturday 250 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 1: a few bogies on the back nine, he could have 251 00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:57,680 Speaker 1: been writing contention. He finished third at Valspar two years ago. 252 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:00,480 Speaker 1: Fair Way Jesus has the right sort of game for 253 00:13:00,520 --> 00:13:03,360 Speaker 1: these tight Florida courses. Bo he just doesn't win very often. 254 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:08,079 Speaker 1: As you said. Ever, I think he's ever. I think 255 00:13:08,080 --> 00:13:10,960 Speaker 1: he's got a few on the European Tour, but he does, 256 00:13:11,000 --> 00:13:13,280 Speaker 1: but it's been a while. It has been a while, 257 00:13:13,360 --> 00:13:17,040 Speaker 1: so yeah, he's an interesting play. JT three top tens 258 00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: at Valspar in the last ten years. He also has 259 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:21,840 Speaker 1: three top tens in his last five PGA Tour starts. 260 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 1: He had that sterling round of sixty two Friday at Sagrass. 261 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:30,080 Speaker 1: But as you said, Bo not necessarily playing well in 262 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:32,200 Speaker 1: the phases of the game that are going to matter 263 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:36,200 Speaker 1: most At Copperhead. Xander Schoffley has only played two events 264 00:13:36,240 --> 00:13:38,840 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. His first tournament since the century 265 00:13:38,840 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: in early January was the Arnold Palmer Invitational two weeks ago. 266 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:46,120 Speaker 1: He finished fortieth. He's made two appearances in his career 267 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 1: at the vals Bar twelfth and twenty twenty two, fifth 268 00:13:49,640 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: last year, so he has shown some aptitude for this 269 00:13:52,040 --> 00:13:56,400 Speaker 1: course and Straka you mentioned bo red Hot. He's made 270 00:13:56,679 --> 00:13:59,880 Speaker 1: nine PGA Tour starts this season sepstrac has one win, 271 00:14:00,400 --> 00:14:04,440 Speaker 1: three top tens and seven top fifteens, but his best 272 00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,079 Speaker 1: finish in two trips to the Valspar was a forty sixth. 273 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 1: He missed the cut last year. I'm mildly interested in 274 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:14,120 Speaker 1: Will Zalatorus hasn't played this event ever, but with his 275 00:14:14,240 --> 00:14:17,720 Speaker 1: ball striking, Copperhead seems right up his alley. Corey Connors 276 00:14:17,760 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 1: another great ball striker. He's finished top twenty five and 277 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: two previous valspar starts third two weeks ago with the 278 00:14:24,200 --> 00:14:26,360 Speaker 1: Arnold Palmer. We know it's a good bet that Connor's 279 00:14:26,400 --> 00:14:28,200 Speaker 1: ball striking is going to be on point. It's just 280 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 1: a matter of whether he can make Potts. Who else 281 00:14:30,680 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 1: should we talk? 282 00:14:31,240 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 2: Oh? 283 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: Sam Burns bo obviously loves these Bermuda greens at Copperhead. 284 00:14:35,600 --> 00:14:38,320 Speaker 1: He putted the lights out in his two victories here, 285 00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:41,960 Speaker 1: then finished sixth in twenty twenty three after those two wins, 286 00:14:42,200 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 1: but Burns hasn't finished top twenty this year since the 287 00:14:44,920 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 1: Century the First Tournament of twenty twenty five. All right, 288 00:14:48,720 --> 00:14:51,400 Speaker 1: let's take a look at some of the mid range plays. 289 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: We have Luke Clanton, Lucas Glover, JT. Post In, Taylor, 290 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,120 Speaker 1: More and Adam Scott all at forty five to one. 291 00:14:58,800 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 1: Keith Mitchell, Jake Nap, Victor Hovlin and Ben On are 292 00:15:02,240 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 1: fifty to one and fifty five to one. We have 293 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:09,320 Speaker 1: Thomas Dietrie, Cameron Young Sahith Thigala and Ben Griffin. Steven 294 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: Jaeger is sixty to one, Rasmus Hoygard is sixty five 295 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,520 Speaker 1: to one, and Kurt Kidiyama, Jacob Bridgeman and Bud Cawley 296 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: are seventy to one. Do any of the mid range 297 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 1: options capture your fancy ball? 298 00:15:21,640 --> 00:15:25,920 Speaker 3: Not even one. It's a clean sweep through the board here. 299 00:15:26,320 --> 00:15:28,880 Speaker 3: All of these guys are either playing terrible golf right 300 00:15:28,920 --> 00:15:31,720 Speaker 3: now or they're just way too short for who they are. 301 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,400 Speaker 3: I think that the value here is actually at the 302 00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:36,520 Speaker 3: top of the board. Honestly, there's a couple of long 303 00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 3: shots that I have my eye on, but this range here, 304 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 3: I've got a big red X through it because I 305 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:44,400 Speaker 3: don't see any of these guys winning this golf tournament. 306 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,440 Speaker 3: And that's what it's gonna take for me, is if 307 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:49,760 Speaker 3: I can envision you winning the golf tournament, then I'm 308 00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:51,760 Speaker 3: gonna make a bet on you if you're in this range. 309 00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:53,720 Speaker 3: But I don't think any of these guys can win 310 00:15:53,760 --> 00:15:56,120 Speaker 3: this golf tournament with the way they're playing or with 311 00:15:56,200 --> 00:15:59,800 Speaker 3: the odds they're at. It just seems like this group 312 00:15:59,880 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 3: is it's like you're running back Cliff in Fantasy football 313 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 3: where you just kind of run out of the top 314 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 3: guys and then whoever's left over is who you end 315 00:16:08,480 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 3: up filling your card with. I think that's a waste 316 00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 3: of money. A smart better handicaps a tournament, and when 317 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 3: I handicapped it, none of these guys really rose to 318 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:18,240 Speaker 3: the top at all. 319 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 2: That's kind of how I feel about it too. Bowl. 320 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:22,640 Speaker 1: We've got a bunch of guys who are not necessarily 321 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: great fits for this course, or guys you just haven't 322 00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: been playing well. One guy I want to ask you 323 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:31,239 Speaker 1: about the bow Jake Knapp. Do we have to reevaluate 324 00:16:31,280 --> 00:16:34,360 Speaker 1: this guy? I mean, he is at this rate going 325 00:16:34,400 --> 00:16:36,520 Speaker 1: to be bucking for a spot on the Ryder Cup team. 326 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,760 Speaker 1: Like Jake Knapp, we thought he was maybe a one 327 00:16:39,760 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: dimensional bomber. He hasn't played this event before. He doesn't 328 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 1: seem like he's a great fit for Copperhead. But Nap 329 00:16:46,120 --> 00:16:50,000 Speaker 1: has three straight top twenty fives, two straight top fifteens. 330 00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: Could he possibly contend here? 331 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:55,720 Speaker 3: I think it's possible because of the firepower aspect, He's 332 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 3: got the game to have the upside to win. I 333 00:16:59,000 --> 00:17:00,960 Speaker 3: think part of the credit it can go to his 334 00:17:01,520 --> 00:17:04,840 Speaker 3: discovery of the stinger off the tee. We've saw him 335 00:17:04,920 --> 00:17:08,679 Speaker 3: and Minwu Lye do really well at TPC Sawgrass with 336 00:17:08,880 --> 00:17:11,920 Speaker 3: the Obviously you've got a long enough guy off the 337 00:17:11,960 --> 00:17:14,560 Speaker 3: tee with driver, doesn't need driver. He cant a three 338 00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,320 Speaker 3: hundred and ten yard two iron stinger and find more fairways. 339 00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:23,399 Speaker 3: Minwuly and especially we're talking about Jake Knapp finding that 340 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 3: off the tee fairway finder that's almost as long as 341 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:30,239 Speaker 3: anybody else's driver. That's an advantage, but I don't know 342 00:17:30,320 --> 00:17:33,639 Speaker 3: that his approach game is strong enough. The windows on 343 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:36,600 Speaker 3: this golf course are so narrow and the greens are 344 00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 3: very challenging. I think that Jake Nap has the off 345 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:43,920 Speaker 3: the tee game, but his value as somebody who avoids 346 00:17:43,920 --> 00:17:48,800 Speaker 3: bogies relatively to his birdy opportunities. We always love the 347 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:52,560 Speaker 3: birdy opportunities Jake Napp gives himself, but when things get 348 00:17:52,600 --> 00:17:54,919 Speaker 3: a little hairy, I don't think his short game is 349 00:17:54,960 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 3: good enough to hold up, and I don't know that 350 00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 3: his approach game is strong enough to avoid some of 351 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,600 Speaker 3: those big numbers that can lurk around this golf course. 352 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,360 Speaker 1: Speaking of Minwu Lee, not in the field this week, 353 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 1: but he had one of my favorite bloopers at Sawgrass 354 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 1: this past week I think it was I can't remember 355 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 1: if it was Saturday or Sunday, but he was just 356 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:17,120 Speaker 1: outside a pot punker, standing in the pot bunker, ball 357 00:18:17,119 --> 00:18:21,080 Speaker 1: above his feet, tried to hit a little pop up 358 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:23,680 Speaker 1: chip shot and slid the clubb right. 359 00:18:23,640 --> 00:18:26,200 Speaker 2: Under the ball, and yeah, he whiffed. 360 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: Always fun to see that as an amateur golfer who 361 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:32,840 Speaker 1: experiences that sort of thing on the regular. 362 00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,359 Speaker 3: He also had he also had the photo cred for 363 00:18:36,520 --> 00:18:40,320 Speaker 3: the ace the JJ jacobac Colin morcawas caddy made on 364 00:18:40,359 --> 00:18:44,199 Speaker 3: seventeen and on the Wednesday practice round. JJ was a 365 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,560 Speaker 3: two time national champion at Chico State up here in 366 00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,840 Speaker 3: NorCal So. I knew JJ had it in him, but 367 00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:52,520 Speaker 3: Minwu Lee took the video where they're all celebrating and 368 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:53,640 Speaker 3: jumping around all crazy. 369 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: Very cool for a caddy to a seventeen in the 370 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 1: practice round of the mid range option. There are two 371 00:19:00,119 --> 00:19:03,280 Speaker 1: guys who I find sort of interesting, sort of interesting. 372 00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,919 Speaker 1: Taylor Moore, who won here in twenty twenty three and 373 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,919 Speaker 1: finished twelfth last year. He's been decent, if unspectacular this 374 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 1: year with a couple of top tens. I guess he 375 00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: gets to what you were talking about, BO. With guys 376 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 1: who maybe have had some course success here but just 377 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: haven't been on any sort of role, don't have any 378 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 1: momentum coming into the tournament. And Lucas Glover, who's had 379 00:19:24,640 --> 00:19:27,160 Speaker 1: a couple of top fifteen's a Copperhead over the last 380 00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:31,000 Speaker 1: six years and played pretty well last week finishing tied 381 00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,040 Speaker 1: for third at Sawgrass. 382 00:19:33,200 --> 00:19:34,840 Speaker 3: He saved me from getting skunked. 383 00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:37,119 Speaker 4: He was. 384 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:38,640 Speaker 3: I got him at one hundred and fifty to one, 385 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 3: and also at the top five and top ten that 386 00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 3: ended up cashing, But it was until Sunday when he 387 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,879 Speaker 3: kind of faltered. It was hoping that a big payout 388 00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:50,000 Speaker 3: was coming our way. With Lucas Glover, he just didn't 389 00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:50,679 Speaker 3: have enough steam. 390 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:53,119 Speaker 1: Yeah, he was in the hunt for a while. Some 391 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: other guys in the mid range. Thomas Dietrie, talented dude, 392 00:19:55,960 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: finished seventeenth here last year in his Valspar debut. So 393 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 1: Hea Thagala finished seventh in his only previous Valspar appearance, 394 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,119 Speaker 1: but again not in great form. What about long shots, BO, 395 00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,679 Speaker 1: which are the guys with the longer odds appeal to you. 396 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 3: I'm going to take a look at three guys in particular. 397 00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 3: One of them has had success here in the past, 398 00:20:14,119 --> 00:20:16,560 Speaker 3: and that's Bo Hostler is going out of eighty to one. 399 00:20:17,080 --> 00:20:19,840 Speaker 3: Bo Hostler is a very accurate player off the tee, 400 00:20:20,119 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 3: very good approach player. His short game and putting especially 401 00:20:22,920 --> 00:20:26,640 Speaker 3: have let him down in years past, but Bo Hostler 402 00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 3: seems to kind of show up on these towards sorts 403 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 3: of grinder tracks, so I'll take a shot at him 404 00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:35,240 Speaker 3: on eighty to one. Mac Meisner is at one hundred 405 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 3: and seventy to one. I expect that to shrink, but 406 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 3: right now I'm looking at mac Meisner in the top 407 00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 3: fifteen of my model, just a really really solid all 408 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 3: around ball striker, accurate player. And another one in that 409 00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 3: same vein is currently one hundred and fifty to one 410 00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:50,760 Speaker 3: that I'm kind of on the fence about, and that's 411 00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:56,400 Speaker 3: Sam Ryder, sponsored by writer Sam Ryder himself. Is he's 412 00:20:56,600 --> 00:20:58,520 Speaker 3: He's just your all around guy. He doesn't really have 413 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,480 Speaker 3: any weak spots. He's not really great at anything either, 414 00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:04,800 Speaker 3: pretty much green numbers across the board, but his best 415 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,719 Speaker 3: attribute is twelfth in good drives gain, so good across 416 00:21:08,760 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 3: the board, but nothing is like, oh wow, look at 417 00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,600 Speaker 3: Sam Ryder. I guess that's baked into his one hundred 418 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:15,040 Speaker 3: and fifty to one betting line. 419 00:21:15,200 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: No interest in your guy Carl Phillips at one hundred 420 00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:18,239 Speaker 1: and fifty to one. 421 00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 3: I of course bet Carl Phillips every week, and so 422 00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 3: this that goes without saying. If you're not betting Carl 423 00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 3: Phillips when he's in a professional field, then you're making 424 00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 3: a mistake because until he's I don't understand how he's 425 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,919 Speaker 3: already still deep like this. We just saw him won 426 00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:46,000 Speaker 3: two weeks ago at Puerto Rico. He's sponsored by Sunday Red, 427 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:49,360 Speaker 3: he went to Stanford. He's a golf prodigy. He's been 428 00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:52,320 Speaker 3: like when we saw a little toddler Tiger Woods running 429 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 3: around back and on the talk shows. This is the 430 00:21:55,800 --> 00:21:58,080 Speaker 3: Carl Phillips has been doing that since he was ten 431 00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 3: years old, and he's literally a golf prodigy. Like he's 432 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,840 Speaker 3: the Auk Shay Batilla of this generation coming up, and 433 00:22:04,960 --> 00:22:09,119 Speaker 3: honestly they're the same age they came up. Batilla turned 434 00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 3: pro seventeen and made his way to being a PGA 435 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 3: Tour winner. Phllips went to Stanford and they end up 436 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 3: coming full circle that where now they're both hot shots. 437 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 3: Where obviously Beatia has been on tour for a few 438 00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:24,720 Speaker 3: years now and is one a couple of tournaments. Phillips 439 00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 3: comes right out of college and wins in his fourth 440 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 3: PGA to our start one hundred and fifty to one. 441 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 3: For that guy, that's the long shot you should always 442 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 3: bet on. And I would probably bet Villips even if 443 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:37,480 Speaker 3: he was as short as fifty to one. That's how 444 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:38,239 Speaker 3: good he is. 445 00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:40,600 Speaker 2: You know more about the specks of his game than 446 00:22:40,680 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 2: I do. Bowl. 447 00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,959 Speaker 1: How do you think he fits a course like Copperhead, 448 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:45,320 Speaker 1: like a glove? 449 00:22:45,720 --> 00:22:46,320 Speaker 2: I know this. 450 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 3: Yeah, he's He's not necessarily a bomber, which was why 451 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:54,440 Speaker 3: he was a good pick at Puerto Rico. Is We 452 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 3: all wanted bombers to win like Carl Phillips, But I 453 00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 3: was like, the approach game is Carl Phillips as strong shot, 454 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:03,040 Speaker 3: and he's got a really good short game. He's a 455 00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,480 Speaker 3: really good scrambler, He's an excellent putter. I think if 456 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,560 Speaker 3: he can survive off the tee here, then we're in business. 457 00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 3: And he's long enough to where we can see that 458 00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 3: his approach game and short game will really parlay into success. 459 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,800 Speaker 3: I don't think the golf world is ready for Carl 460 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,160 Speaker 3: Phillips to be less than one hundred and one, which 461 00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:25,359 Speaker 3: is why we're going to be cashing in pretty much 462 00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,000 Speaker 3: until he wins one of these bigger tournaments. 463 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,680 Speaker 1: One of the other guys I'm sort of interested in, 464 00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:35,639 Speaker 1: he's just outside mid range, Christian Bazudenhaub, the guy's whose 465 00:23:35,720 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 1: name I can never pronounce. Eighty to one, ninth here 466 00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:42,480 Speaker 1: last year at VALSPARI was fourth in the Phoenix Open 467 00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: earlier this year, nineteenth at the Arnold Palmer a few 468 00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,320 Speaker 1: weeks ago. A pretty good player to be at eighty 469 00:23:48,359 --> 00:23:50,760 Speaker 1: to one. Joel Damon is kind of interesting at one 470 00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:53,440 Speaker 1: hundred and twenty to one. Those are also the odds 471 00:23:53,440 --> 00:23:56,520 Speaker 1: for Joseph Bramlett one twenty to one. He finished third 472 00:23:56,520 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: at the Puerto Rico Open a few weeks ago and 473 00:23:58,400 --> 00:24:02,879 Speaker 1: was seventeenth at the Elspar last year. And bo another 474 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 1: guy just like five hundred to one odds, Sammy Vallamacky. 475 00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:08,880 Speaker 1: He's made the cut in four of his last five events. 476 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: I don't know if he has contention in him, but 477 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,119 Speaker 1: I might throw a dollar on Sammy at five hundred 478 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,680 Speaker 1: to one, and I'm not going to waste a dollar 479 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:19,720 Speaker 1: on Peter Malnaddy, the defending champion, can get it one 480 00:24:19,720 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 1: thousand to one. That just shows how improbable a victor 481 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 1: he was last year. 482 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:27,280 Speaker 2: In the Valspar Championship. 483 00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 1: All right, let's get to our early betting cards, Bo, 484 00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 1: who is on yours as of now? 485 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 3: I have Tommy Fleetwood at fourteen to one, sepstracat twenty two, 486 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 3: Michael Kim and Alex Smalley each at forty to one, 487 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,600 Speaker 3: Bo Hustler at eighty, Sam Ryder won fifty, and Mac 488 00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:47,120 Speaker 3: Meisner won seventy to one. And of course Carl Phillips, 489 00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:49,920 Speaker 3: I'm betting him like he's fifty to one with the investment, 490 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,600 Speaker 3: but one hundred and fifty to one already. Cast in 491 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 3: with Carl Phillips. What's seventy to one? A couple of 492 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,320 Speaker 3: weeks ago, we're riding high, We're betting the Assi. It's 493 00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 3: it's gonna be good. Carl Phillips is he's just special. 494 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. 495 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: As of the recording of this show, there were no 496 00:25:07,160 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: top five or top ten or top twenty odds on DraftKings. 497 00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:11,680 Speaker 2: It was just outrights. 498 00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,199 Speaker 1: And I'm gonna hold back a little bit this week, Bo, 499 00:25:15,359 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: just because I'm probably gonna have a lot of money 500 00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: and play for the NCAA Basketball Tournament this week, I've 501 00:25:21,240 --> 00:25:25,359 Speaker 1: got Xander Schaffley at fourteen to one. I know, I 502 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,879 Speaker 1: know he hasn't shown any form and really has not 503 00:25:27,960 --> 00:25:31,439 Speaker 1: played much this year. But man, getting Xander and not 504 00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,600 Speaker 1: the strongest of fields at fourteen to one feels pretty good. 505 00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,359 Speaker 1: I do like Sepstrack at twenty two to one, Christian 506 00:25:37,400 --> 00:25:41,080 Speaker 1: Bazunahaut at eighty to one, and our guy Carl Phillips 507 00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:43,679 Speaker 1: at one hundred and fifty to one. Now for the 508 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:46,840 Speaker 1: one and done competition, bo you took justin Thomas last 509 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 1: week of the Players Championship. He finished tied for thirty third, 510 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 1: good for one hundred and thirty six two hundred and 511 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:57,240 Speaker 1: fifty dollars. I burned Scotti Scheffler. He finished tied for twentieth, 512 00:25:57,280 --> 00:26:00,399 Speaker 1: good for two hundred and forty thousand two one hundred 513 00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,560 Speaker 1: and fifty dollars in an elevated event. I don't think 514 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:04,399 Speaker 1: either of us really got our money's worth out of 515 00:26:04,400 --> 00:26:07,480 Speaker 1: the big guns. But my misuse of Scotti Scheffler was 516 00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:10,520 Speaker 1: especially egregious. It really hurts to play Scotty and not 517 00:26:10,560 --> 00:26:13,440 Speaker 1: get a top ten out of him. So our head 518 00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: to head battle remains pretty close. I'm just over one 519 00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:19,200 Speaker 1: point six million, You're just over one point four million. 520 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,400 Speaker 1: I'm up first this week, bo, I'm taking Sam Burns, 521 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,600 Speaker 1: going with the chalk and the two time winner. 522 00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 2: Who are you taking? 523 00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 3: I'm going to take big Sepstraca. It's it's time to 524 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,879 Speaker 3: roll out the Austrian because I think that as we 525 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,280 Speaker 3: go along, we're going to get fewer and fewer golf 526 00:26:36,320 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 3: courses that favor his style of play. I think this 527 00:26:38,960 --> 00:26:41,600 Speaker 3: is the last chance I'm going to have to really 528 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:43,080 Speaker 3: cash in on his ability. 529 00:26:44,080 --> 00:26:46,400 Speaker 1: I would have loved to have taken Substraca this week, 530 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:49,880 Speaker 1: but of course I burn Step at the Genesis Invitational, 531 00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:53,120 Speaker 1: which was like his one bad tournament of twenty twenty five. 532 00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,879 Speaker 3: I remember because I was kind of worried about that, 533 00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,040 Speaker 3: and then he finally he went out late as one 534 00:26:59,119 --> 00:27:01,000 Speaker 3: egg of the year on my. 535 00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 1: Behalf seven top fifteen's and nine events, but when he 536 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 1: missed the cut for me. 537 00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:08,440 Speaker 3: But yeah, I still have zero missed cuts this year, 538 00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:09,800 Speaker 3: similar streak to last year. 539 00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 1: I remember, that is amazing you are You are a 540 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,679 Speaker 1: singles hitter while I am swinging for the fences like 541 00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:17,840 Speaker 1: Dave Kingman here all or nothing. 542 00:27:18,119 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 3: Every once in a while, though, I mean have quite 543 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,920 Speaker 3: a few six figure things. You're on quite a streak though, 544 00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,600 Speaker 3: three straight, four straight six figure payouts for you. 545 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:31,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's gone three straight, three straight with at least 546 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,679 Speaker 1: two hundred and forty thousand. But I have also missed 547 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:39,440 Speaker 1: four cuts so far this year in what eleven events, 548 00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,919 Speaker 1: so that's kind of a dubious distinction. That's all for 549 00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,040 Speaker 1: this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. We'll be back next 550 00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:50,280 Speaker 1: week to preview the Houston Open. Until then, so long everyone. 551 00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 552 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:55,679 Speaker 4: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 553 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:59,080 Speaker 4: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 554 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:02,000 Speaker 4: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 555 00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,720 Speaker 4: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 556 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:20,000 Speaker 4: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.