1
00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:03,400
Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

2
00:00:03,480 --> 00:00:05,920
Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

3
00:00:05,960 --> 00:00:08,720
Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

4
00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:10,840
Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

5
00:00:10,840 --> 00:00:14,840
Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

6
00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,960
Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

7
00:00:17,960 --> 00:00:21,520
Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

8
00:00:21,560 --> 00:00:23,400
Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

9
00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,400
Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

10
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:28,640
Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

11
00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:32,320
Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

12
00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:53,040
Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

13
00:00:53,040 --> 00:00:55,440
Speaker 1: Happy Monday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

14
00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:57,560
Speaker 1: When do we have crystal Indeed, we do a lot

15
00:00:57,600 --> 00:01:00,240
Speaker 1: of big stories breaking this morning. First of all, all

16
00:01:00,280 --> 00:01:03,800
Speaker 1: of these major primaries march on some big ones, perhaps

17
00:01:03,840 --> 00:01:06,600
Speaker 1: the biggest one on the map for tomorrow in the

18
00:01:06,640 --> 00:01:10,200
Speaker 1: state of Georgia, Trump, of course backing Perdue versus the

19
00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 1: incumbent governor Brian Kemp, will give you the latest there

20
00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:14,600
Speaker 1: also the very latest in terms of results coming out

21
00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania, where we still do not have answers who

22
00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:21,280
Speaker 1: will be the Republican nominee for Senate as of now,

23
00:01:21,400 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 1: I would say Oz has picked up a little bit

24
00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:26,360
Speaker 1: of ground. It's looking more likely like it'll be him,

25
00:01:26,360 --> 00:01:29,280
Speaker 1: but it still is totally anyone's game between him and McCormick.

26
00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,839
Speaker 1: So we have the very latest. There also some devastating

27
00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:35,560
Speaker 1: new polling for Biden about how people are feeling hilariously,

28
00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:38,080
Speaker 1: how the administration is trying to spin that as well,

29
00:01:39,080 --> 00:01:41,959
Speaker 1: and some new revelations from Hillary Clinton that you do

30
00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:45,840
Speaker 1: not want to miss. Plus big news breaking actually overnight,

31
00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:50,320
Speaker 1: Biden's overseas in Japan, and he made some pretty bombshell

32
00:01:50,400 --> 00:01:55,320
Speaker 1: comments that seem to surprise everyone, the reporters who were there,

33
00:01:55,920 --> 00:02:02,000
Speaker 1: his own team, effectively changing the law longstanding US position

34
00:02:02,120 --> 00:02:07,440
Speaker 1: towards Taiwan of strategic ambiguity to affirmatively say if China invades,

35
00:02:07,480 --> 00:02:09,720
Speaker 1: we will meet them militarily, the second time that he

36
00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:12,440
Speaker 1: said that, except this time he explicitly said yes to

37
00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:16,560
Speaker 1: the military question. So we got lately, Yeah, completely unambiguous. Yeah,

38
00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:18,480
Speaker 1: we got lucky. I would love to say that we

39
00:02:18,720 --> 00:02:20,520
Speaker 1: planned this in a band. So we knew this was

40
00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,520
Speaker 1: going to be, you know, on the menu for today,

41
00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:24,320
Speaker 1: but it just so happens that we actually have a

42
00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:27,440
Speaker 1: Taiwan expert, yes, elbertge Colby, who was booked for the show,

43
00:02:27,440 --> 00:02:29,440
Speaker 1: who can dig into all of this. The other big

44
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:32,480
Speaker 1: news that's coming out of this is a new trade block,

45
00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,600
Speaker 1: so you know, is this sort of TPP by another name.

46
00:02:36,639 --> 00:02:38,640
Speaker 1: They're saying it's going to be ultimately more limited. So

47
00:02:38,680 --> 00:02:42,000
Speaker 1: we can dig into those details with Elberg Colby as well,

48
00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:44,359
Speaker 1: But we wanted to start with those primaries in Georgia

49
00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:46,760
Speaker 1: and across the country. Yeah, that's right. The Georgia primary

50
00:02:46,880 --> 00:02:49,560
Speaker 1: is just incredibly significant on a variety of levels. I mean,

51
00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:53,239
Speaker 1: I think that any political analyst myself included in terms

52
00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:54,680
Speaker 1: of what we thought was going to happen, is that

53
00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:58,280
Speaker 1: Brian camp was completely toast in the Georgia gubernatorial primary,

54
00:02:58,360 --> 00:03:01,400
Speaker 1: especially when David Perdue, the former senator, decided that he

55
00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:03,600
Speaker 1: was going to run for that. He barely lost his

56
00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:06,200
Speaker 1: Senate seat there to John Ossoff, and it seemed him

57
00:03:06,240 --> 00:03:09,399
Speaker 1: being blessed with the stop the Steal Trump magic, how

58
00:03:09,400 --> 00:03:12,480
Speaker 1: could he possibly lose? And yet poll after poll after

59
00:03:12,520 --> 00:03:16,080
Speaker 1: poll shows Purdue not just down, but down by over

60
00:03:16,280 --> 00:03:18,960
Speaker 1: thirty points. And the New York Times actually did a

61
00:03:19,000 --> 00:03:20,840
Speaker 1: decent rite up on this. Let's put this up there

62
00:03:21,080 --> 00:03:23,120
Speaker 1: on the screen. What Donald Trump did not count on

63
00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,639
Speaker 1: in Georgia. What they point to is that number one,

64
00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:28,919
Speaker 1: David Perdue did not want to run for governor. The president,

65
00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:33,000
Speaker 1: former President Trump blew up his phone constantly being like,

66
00:03:33,080 --> 00:03:35,240
Speaker 1: you really need to run for governor. You really need

67
00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,080
Speaker 1: to run for governor. You have my complete and total endorsement.

68
00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 1: You're going to make sure that I'm going to make

69
00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,040
Speaker 1: sure that you win. Remember that he had promised that

70
00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:43,480
Speaker 1: he was going to go out of his way in

71
00:03:43,560 --> 00:03:46,040
Speaker 1: order to make sure that Brian Kemp lost the election.

72
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,840
Speaker 1: He promised that many times. In November. He said, no

73
00:03:48,920 --> 00:03:51,880
Speaker 1: matter what happens, I'll be here campaigning against your governor,

74
00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,640
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp. But as we see now, Kemp has a

75
00:03:55,680 --> 00:03:59,960
Speaker 1: tremendous amount of loyalty amongst the Republican faithful. And it's

76
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,560
Speaker 1: fascinating because even Trump Republicans who are in the primary

77
00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:08,080
Speaker 1: Crystal poll after Poles shows us this, say yeah, I

78
00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:12,160
Speaker 1: like Trump, identify as a Trump Republican, not even a Republican.

79
00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:14,960
Speaker 1: But Brian Kemp. He's not all that bad. And it's

80
00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,000
Speaker 1: a really fascinating test case of how much Trump can

81
00:04:18,040 --> 00:04:21,559
Speaker 1: borrow his own personal political brand and make his own

82
00:04:21,640 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 1: voters embrace it fully. So, you know, this is if

83
00:04:25,680 --> 00:04:27,840
Speaker 1: things go the way that the Poles look like, and look,

84
00:04:27,839 --> 00:04:29,720
Speaker 1: you know, we have no idea of being burned by

85
00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,920
Speaker 1: Poles in the past. It is a tremendous humiliation to Trump.

86
00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,200
Speaker 1: There's no other way to say it, I think. So

87
00:04:36,320 --> 00:04:38,240
Speaker 1: there's a lot here. I mean, first of all, the

88
00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,800
Speaker 1: best that Purdue can hope for at this point is

89
00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,000
Speaker 1: to force a runoff, so to keep Kemp under fifty percent,

90
00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,400
Speaker 1: and let me tell you, it would take a dramatic

91
00:04:46,839 --> 00:04:50,120
Speaker 1: turn of events and the polls being wildly off even

92
00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:52,440
Speaker 1: for that to happen. I mean, right now Kemp is

93
00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:55,719
Speaker 1: up around sixty eight percent or even more than that.

94
00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:59,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, he has blown Purdue out of the water

95
00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,160
Speaker 1: on this saying. And you know what the New York

96
00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:04,320
Speaker 1: Times found And I've been listening to a lot of

97
00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,120
Speaker 1: Greg Bluestein has a podcast that's just focused on Georgia

98
00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,440
Speaker 1: politics with great reporter that we've had on this show

99
00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:13,360
Speaker 1: from the Atlanta Journal Constitution and Camp has been an

100
00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:17,120
Speaker 1: extremely conservative governor. Yes, I mean he's hit sort of

101
00:05:17,160 --> 00:05:21,640
Speaker 1: all the like you know, cultural issues for Republicans. He

102
00:05:21,839 --> 00:05:25,279
Speaker 1: did a CRT bill, he did a very restrictive abortion bill.

103
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,160
Speaker 1: He's done very you know, gotten rid of all the

104
00:05:28,200 --> 00:05:31,520
Speaker 1: sort of any gun control legislation that's been stripped away.

105
00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:34,520
Speaker 1: There was a tax cut. He's also paired that with.

106
00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:37,480
Speaker 1: So he's you know, been culturally very conservative. Also did

107
00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,840
Speaker 1: very restrictive voting laws which were extremely controversial. Remember Joe

108
00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,320
Speaker 1: Biden called them the Jim Crow Laws New Jim Crow

109
00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:45,720
Speaker 1: Laws or something like that. I helped camp actually in

110
00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:49,080
Speaker 1: the primary. I probably did right. So and he's paired

111
00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,120
Speaker 1: that with these had a few big wins in terms

112
00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,880
Speaker 1: of economic development. There's a new electric truck plant east

113
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:58,280
Speaker 1: of Atlanta. He just recently announced a new Hyundai electric

114
00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,520
Speaker 1: vehicle plant to be built outside of Savannah. UH. He

115
00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:05,359
Speaker 1: gave raises to teachers and state government employees. So in

116
00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:09,359
Speaker 1: terms of the Republican base, he's been there on every

117
00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,080
Speaker 1: single issue. So I think that's the thing for Trump

118
00:06:12,200 --> 00:06:13,960
Speaker 1: is in some of these other races, like with jd

119
00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:17,159
Speaker 1: Vance or with Oz, where you know, if OZ wins,

120
00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,479
Speaker 1: I think Trump's endorsement will have been the determining factor.

121
00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:23,120
Speaker 1: It was a situation where you had candidates who were

122
00:06:23,120 --> 00:06:24,960
Speaker 1: a little bit less defined, they were a little bit

123
00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:29,600
Speaker 1: less known to the base. So Trump's imprimateure really made

124
00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,920
Speaker 1: the difference. Whereas with Kemp Georgia, Republican voters felt like, no, no,

125
00:06:33,960 --> 00:06:36,159
Speaker 1: we know this guy. Yeah, we know you're not happy

126
00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,120
Speaker 1: with him on stop this deal, but he's done this

127
00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,400
Speaker 1: other list of things that are important to us, and

128
00:06:40,480 --> 00:06:43,080
Speaker 1: so we appreciate your guidance here, but we're going our

129
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:44,520
Speaker 1: own way. Yeah. I've been you know, I've been really

130
00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,640
Speaker 1: thinking about it, and I think one of the keys

131
00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:50,120
Speaker 1: might be this. A lot of the Republicans self identified

132
00:06:50,160 --> 00:06:53,839
Speaker 1: Republicans who were maybe voting in the Pennsylvania primary, Ohio primary,

133
00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:56,400
Speaker 1: they were not really Republicans before that, or they weren't

134
00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,640
Speaker 1: politically activated. They were Trump people who were really brought

135
00:06:59,680 --> 00:07:02,600
Speaker 1: them out, Whereas I mean Georgia Republicans like George's been

136
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:05,039
Speaker 1: a Republicans stayed for like sixty years. So if you

137
00:07:05,120 --> 00:07:08,120
Speaker 1: consider it in that way, these people have been culturally

138
00:07:08,360 --> 00:07:13,760
Speaker 1: conservative and Republican identifying for decades, long before Trump ever

139
00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:16,320
Speaker 1: became on the scene. They like Trump, but they're existing

140
00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,679
Speaker 1: Republican voters, and so they're maybe capable of thinking about

141
00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,640
Speaker 1: politics in a different way and much more maybe like

142
00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:25,360
Speaker 1: not when I say values oriented, I mean around like

143
00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,840
Speaker 1: what the Republican voter in general cares about a lot more.

144
00:07:28,880 --> 00:07:31,720
Speaker 1: And because Brian Kemp has stood by them on all

145
00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:34,040
Speaker 1: of these except for stop the Steal, which never really

146
00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:36,440
Speaker 1: was a core Republican thing, it was much more of

147
00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:39,720
Speaker 1: a Trump Republican thing, well then that really does help

148
00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:41,560
Speaker 1: his case. And look, all of this is bearing out

149
00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:43,840
Speaker 1: in terms of the last polls heading into this race

150
00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:46,000
Speaker 1: with us up there. You know, this is Fox News

151
00:07:46,080 --> 00:07:49,560
Speaker 1: poll shows that Purdue is down by thirty two points.

152
00:07:49,880 --> 00:07:54,080
Speaker 1: Kemp leads him, basically avoiding a runoff completely. I mean

153
00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,760
Speaker 1: sixty percent of voters prefer Brian Kemp compared with just

154
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:01,320
Speaker 1: twenty eight percent. If you think about it, over March,

155
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:04,720
Speaker 1: this has had a substantial shift during the campaign. Purdue

156
00:08:04,760 --> 00:08:07,640
Speaker 1: actually had thirty nine percent whenever he announced, with some

157
00:08:07,720 --> 00:08:10,520
Speaker 1: of the Trump figure but with Kemp being able to

158
00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 1: make his case on the airwaves and say no, I'm

159
00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,400
Speaker 1: the real conservative, I'm the real you know, Republican. In

160
00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,360
Speaker 1: this race against David Purdue, and all David Purdue has

161
00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:20,600
Speaker 1: on him at the end of the day is stopped

162
00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:23,120
Speaker 1: the steal. So this is a good, you know, a

163
00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:26,160
Speaker 1: very good test of like how much that actually matters

164
00:08:26,200 --> 00:08:28,680
Speaker 1: to the mean Republican voter. And we've said this a

165
00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:30,680
Speaker 1: million times, you know, in the middle of inflation and

166
00:08:30,720 --> 00:08:32,400
Speaker 1: all this other stuff you're putting up guys like Doug

167
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,240
Speaker 1: Mastriano or if Purdue, you know, had become the governor,

168
00:08:35,400 --> 00:08:37,720
Speaker 1: their only case to be made is, oh, I'm going

169
00:08:37,800 --> 00:08:40,360
Speaker 1: to overturn the election, not deal with all this other

170
00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 1: stuff that's going on in your life. Purdue seems to

171
00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:45,000
Speaker 1: have also run a really terrible campaign. I mean he

172
00:08:45,160 --> 00:08:48,120
Speaker 1: basically in the home stretch, I mean seems to have

173
00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:50,360
Speaker 1: kind of given up. I mean he's barely doing any

174
00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:53,920
Speaker 1: public appearances. He's not up on the airwaves. Now there

175
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:56,480
Speaker 1: is outside spending putting ads I don't know if they're

176
00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:59,720
Speaker 1: for him or against camp up on the airwaves, but

177
00:09:00,240 --> 00:09:03,720
Speaker 1: his own campaign is not running any TV ads in

178
00:09:03,800 --> 00:09:06,880
Speaker 1: the final week of the primary. Like that's bananas. And

179
00:09:06,920 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 1: this is a very wealthy individual. You were saying he'd

180
00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:12,080
Speaker 1: barely put any of comparatively, only put half a million dollars,

181
00:09:12,240 --> 00:09:15,080
Speaker 1: which for him, he was one of the wealthiest senator.

182
00:09:15,320 --> 00:09:17,280
Speaker 1: He's not worth something like sixty millions. He was a

183
00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:19,880
Speaker 1: CEO dollar general, so if he wanted to put in more,

184
00:09:19,960 --> 00:09:23,319
Speaker 1: he could. Trump is kind of trying to distance himself,

185
00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:26,360
Speaker 1: trying to wash his hands up him a little bit. Meanwhile,

186
00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,920
Speaker 1: on the other side, all kinds of Republicans are lining

187
00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:34,239
Speaker 1: up behind Kemp. First of all, the entire Republican caucus

188
00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:37,160
Speaker 1: in the Georgia State Legislature is effectively behind him at

189
00:09:37,160 --> 00:09:39,360
Speaker 1: this point, so he's got all the hometown people behind him.

190
00:09:39,480 --> 00:09:42,400
Speaker 1: He made some very smart moves in terms of taking

191
00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,560
Speaker 1: some key players off the board by giving them sort

192
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:48,640
Speaker 1: of plum positions within his administration to shut them up.

193
00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,240
Speaker 1: Very clever folks like Chris Christi are coming in to

194
00:09:52,360 --> 00:09:54,400
Speaker 1: sort of, you know, be on the side of this

195
00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:57,480
Speaker 1: winning candidate against the big Trump back candidate. And the

196
00:09:57,520 --> 00:10:01,640
Speaker 1: most significant one is Mike Pence, who there's a new

197
00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:03,240
Speaker 1: piece out this morn in the New York Times, who

198
00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 1: seems to be testing the waters for potentially running in

199
00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:09,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four even if Trump is there. Now do

200
00:10:09,600 --> 00:10:12,000
Speaker 1: I think that effort will be successful? No, I do not,

201
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:17,040
Speaker 1: But clearly by backing Kemp in this kind of proxy

202
00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:21,600
Speaker 1: war between the hard Trump aligned forces and the somewhat

203
00:10:21,600 --> 00:10:25,200
Speaker 1: more Trump skeptical forces, he is also trying to sort of,

204
00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 1: you know, lay the groundwork here and put his own

205
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:29,880
Speaker 1: political stamp on this. It's a big deal. Mike Penn's

206
00:10:29,880 --> 00:10:31,360
Speaker 1: going to be on the ground tonight, you know, with

207
00:10:31,520 --> 00:10:33,800
Speaker 1: one of the last rallies there for Brian Kemp. And

208
00:10:34,040 --> 00:10:35,320
Speaker 1: you know, I think it just comes back to what

209
00:10:35,360 --> 00:10:37,920
Speaker 1: I was saying, Like guys like Chris Christy and Pence

210
00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,280
Speaker 1: and all of them, they've been around for a long time,

211
00:10:40,400 --> 00:10:42,760
Speaker 1: longer than Trump, and a lot of those Republican voters

212
00:10:42,760 --> 00:10:44,840
Speaker 1: there have. They also been in the party longer than

213
00:10:44,880 --> 00:10:47,600
Speaker 1: Trump quite literally. So when you consider that, it makes

214
00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:50,160
Speaker 1: sense that it's going to be more of an independent

215
00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:52,560
Speaker 1: minded place. We have some of the ads that both

216
00:10:52,600 --> 00:10:54,920
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp and David Perdue have been playing just to

217
00:10:54,960 --> 00:10:56,880
Speaker 1: give you guys a taste of what it looks like

218
00:10:56,920 --> 00:11:02,040
Speaker 1: down there. Let's take a listen. I understand you may

219
00:11:02,080 --> 00:11:05,160
Speaker 1: not agree with everything that I've done. Well you can't

220
00:11:05,200 --> 00:11:07,640
Speaker 1: say I haven't done what I promised I would do.

221
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:11,800
Speaker 1: We had to protect lives, but also livelihoods. That is

222
00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,000
Speaker 1: why we are in a fight for the soul of

223
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:20,040
Speaker 1: our state. Illegal sploitting our border, skyrocketing gas prices, crippling inflation,

224
00:11:20,960 --> 00:11:24,120
Speaker 1: the brink of war. Folks. That all started right here

225
00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:26,960
Speaker 1: when Brian Kemp sold us out and allowed radicals to

226
00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,880
Speaker 1: steal the election. Kemp is just another establishment politician who

227
00:11:30,920 --> 00:11:34,719
Speaker 1: fought Trump. Enough is enough, There you go go work.

228
00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,440
Speaker 1: It was interesting Bluestein even said that in the final

229
00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:41,880
Speaker 1: weeks of this campaign, Purdue has shifted his messaging away

230
00:11:41,880 --> 00:11:44,679
Speaker 1: from stop this deal because it clearly was not It

231
00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,559
Speaker 1: wasn't enough. There needed to be some other Ajunda plan.

232
00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:51,920
Speaker 1: Here's my economic plan when people are struggling, and that

233
00:11:52,040 --> 00:11:55,240
Speaker 1: is clearly their number one issue. Couple, let me make

234
00:11:55,280 --> 00:11:57,920
Speaker 1: the opposite case a little with the Purdue people would say,

235
00:11:58,280 --> 00:12:01,760
Speaker 1: there's been extremely high time her now in early voting.

236
00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,199
Speaker 1: There you know spin on that is, Oh, that's all

237
00:12:05,240 --> 00:12:07,800
Speaker 1: the like energized Trump people, and the polls aren't capturing

238
00:12:07,800 --> 00:12:10,120
Speaker 1: what's really going on. Maybe just want to put it

239
00:12:10,120 --> 00:12:13,280
Speaker 1: out there, that's what they're saying. The other thing that's

240
00:12:13,280 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 1: interesting though about that vote is Georgia has open primaries,

241
00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:20,439
Speaker 1: so you don't have to be a registered Republican to

242
00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,960
Speaker 1: vote in the primaries Democratic side is a foregone conclusion.

243
00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,680
Speaker 1: Stacy Abrams is going to be the Democratic nominee obviously,

244
00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:30,720
Speaker 1: Raphael Warnock is going to be the nominee for Senate,

245
00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:36,160
Speaker 1: the incumbent Democratic senator there, so the Democrats could vote

246
00:12:36,160 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 1: in the Republican primary, and so far in the early vote,

247
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:40,480
Speaker 1: something like six to eight percent of the voters have

248
00:12:40,520 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 1: actually been Democrats. And uh, I assume no, actually no,

249
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:50,800
Speaker 1: because there was one of the reporters at AJC interviewed

250
00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,440
Speaker 1: a number of these voters and they all said they're

251
00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:57,360
Speaker 1: voting for Kemp because they're so concerned they know that

252
00:12:57,400 --> 00:12:59,760
Speaker 1: a Republican is likely to win this year, they're so

253
00:12:59,760 --> 00:13:04,080
Speaker 1: concerned about the implications for democracy that even though they're

254
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:07,880
Speaker 1: certainly not big Kemp Brian Kemp fans, at least the

255
00:13:08,120 --> 00:13:10,160
Speaker 1: I think sixteen or so voters who fell in this

256
00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:13,360
Speaker 1: category were Democrats voting in the Republican primary. By this

257
00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:17,120
Speaker 1: particular reporter said, we're voting for Kemp because we're worried

258
00:13:17,120 --> 00:13:22,680
Speaker 1: about Purdue and election certification. So will that be a factor?

259
00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:24,960
Speaker 1: Who knows? And could that be contributing to some of

260
00:13:25,000 --> 00:13:29,360
Speaker 1: the surgeon turn up. Possibly. There's another couple of races

261
00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:32,439
Speaker 1: here that are interesting. You've got herschel Walker is very

262
00:13:32,480 --> 00:13:34,600
Speaker 1: likely to be the Republican nominee for Senate to go

263
00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,559
Speaker 1: against Raphael Warnock. You know, he sort of ran away

264
00:13:38,559 --> 00:13:40,840
Speaker 1: with that race. The other one that's interesting, though, is

265
00:13:40,880 --> 00:13:44,440
Speaker 1: remember that guy Brad Raffensberger, who's the Secretary of State

266
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:47,840
Speaker 1: who become became very famous or infamous, I guess, depending

267
00:13:47,840 --> 00:13:51,719
Speaker 1: on your view when this call was released between him

268
00:13:51,760 --> 00:13:54,960
Speaker 1: and Trump, when Trump was urging him to quote find

269
00:13:55,240 --> 00:13:59,839
Speaker 1: enough votes to reverse his defeat in Georgia. The polls

270
00:13:59,840 --> 00:14:02,520
Speaker 1: that they very close. There's a Trump vacked candidate against

271
00:14:02,559 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 1: him named Jodi Heiss. That one I think is kind

272
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:06,920
Speaker 1: of a jump ball. From the best I can tell.

273
00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,800
Speaker 1: There's less public polling, but the public pulling that exists

274
00:14:10,080 --> 00:14:12,360
Speaker 1: has even that one tied. And that's another one where

275
00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 1: you would think that this guy, you know, his whole

276
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:18,640
Speaker 1: reason people know about him is in opposition to Trump.

277
00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:20,840
Speaker 1: His whole job is to sort of be, you know,

278
00:14:20,880 --> 00:14:24,280
Speaker 1: the arbiter of free and fair elections in the state.

279
00:14:24,760 --> 00:14:26,840
Speaker 1: So even the fact that you know that one isn't

280
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:29,600
Speaker 1: a slam dunk for Trump either is pretty telling. I

281
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,800
Speaker 1: think that this is tremendously telling about the pure just

282
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:35,720
Speaker 1: power of stop to steal. Frankly, it's kind of heartening.

283
00:14:36,440 --> 00:14:38,400
Speaker 1: You know, we'll find out how exactly it works out

284
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:40,520
Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania. But I think, you know, I've always said

285
00:14:40,560 --> 00:14:43,000
Speaker 1: that even for the people who believe like you should

286
00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:46,000
Speaker 1: at least have faith that normal folks are normal folks,

287
00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,000
Speaker 1: and they're not going to make this their top priority

288
00:14:48,040 --> 00:14:53,000
Speaker 1: because they're not crazy, especially whenever there is high gas, prises, inflation,

289
00:14:53,600 --> 00:14:55,560
Speaker 1: culture war, wherever you want to stand on at all

290
00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,880
Speaker 1: of those things rate for people much higher than whatever

291
00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:01,280
Speaker 1: happened in an election that we basically know all of

292
00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:03,280
Speaker 1: the results from. And let's put this up there, you know,

293
00:15:03,280 --> 00:15:06,120
Speaker 1: and even Trump himself basically riding off into the sun

294
00:15:06,200 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 1: with humiliation, washing hands of Purdue in Georgia as his

295
00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:12,840
Speaker 1: campaign limps in the final stretch. You alluded to this.

296
00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,080
Speaker 1: David Perdue, and he's not on TV, trailing badly in

297
00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,320
Speaker 1: the polls, he's written off by every Republican political insider,

298
00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:22,840
Speaker 1: both nationally and in Georgia, and at one time he

299
00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 1: was the presumptive gubernatorial nominee. So to him to have

300
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,760
Speaker 1: the backing and Trump having you know, come to the

301
00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,560
Speaker 1: state backed him, said over the last two years that

302
00:15:32,640 --> 00:15:35,200
Speaker 1: he would do everything in his power in order to

303
00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:38,120
Speaker 1: defeat Kemp, and for Kemp to still win that primary

304
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,720
Speaker 1: and even avoid a runoff. Humiliating. I mean, there is

305
00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,760
Speaker 1: no other way to say it. And it's a good

306
00:15:43,760 --> 00:15:46,320
Speaker 1: insight into politics around how much some of this nonsense

307
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:48,680
Speaker 1: actually matters. I'm not going to say that it doesn't.

308
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,680
Speaker 1: If Mostriano becomes a governor, that genuinely could trigger like

309
00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:56,680
Speaker 1: an actual constitutional crisis, But in terms of Brian Kemp

310
00:15:56,880 --> 00:16:00,200
Speaker 1: or David Perdue at current times, it looks like could

311
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:02,240
Speaker 1: be avoided. Maybe we'll watch this clip back, you know,

312
00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:03,680
Speaker 1: in two days and be like, wow, the guy actually

313
00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:07,440
Speaker 1: want to Yeah, we were totally wrong. Okay, well see

314
00:16:08,080 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 1: for now, it looks like that's what's gonna happen down there. Yep.

315
00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:14,960
Speaker 1: Another interesting story though, soccer on the stop the Steel front.

316
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:17,200
Speaker 1: This fits with the exact same frame. So let's put

317
00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,560
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. You guys will recall

318
00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,120
Speaker 1: we brought you this news several weeks ago that Moe Brooks,

319
00:16:23,160 --> 00:16:26,280
Speaker 1: the congressman from Alabama, was running in the primary there

320
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:30,360
Speaker 1: for the Senate seat that was open was ditched by

321
00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:35,600
Speaker 1: Trump for going quote woke. Now, uh, I don't like wokeness. However,

322
00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:41,040
Speaker 1: the president's definition is getting pretty expansive here, because what

323
00:16:41,120 --> 00:16:45,120
Speaker 1: Trump accused Moe Brooks of going woke for was basically saying,

324
00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,160
Speaker 1: I'm not going to vote to decertify the election if

325
00:16:49,200 --> 00:16:51,680
Speaker 1: I were to become senator. By the way, he didn't

326
00:16:51,680 --> 00:16:54,160
Speaker 1: even say that about a future election. He said it

327
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:56,960
Speaker 1: about the past a right, And also he said something

328
00:16:57,080 --> 00:16:59,600
Speaker 1: vague leg I think it's time we look forward. He said,

329
00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,640
Speaker 1: we need to move on from what happened in twenty twenty, which, like, okay,

330
00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:04,720
Speaker 1: by the way, this is a dude who literally spoke

331
00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,000
Speaker 1: at that chick out. Yeah, that's right, So it's not

332
00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,880
Speaker 1: like he's been a squish. In reality would happen here.

333
00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,560
Speaker 1: I don't think that he really thought he'd quote gone woke.

334
00:17:13,680 --> 00:17:15,000
Speaker 1: I think he thought he was going to loose y

335
00:17:15,160 --> 00:17:16,800
Speaker 1: and then what happened, and he didn't want to be

336
00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:19,919
Speaker 1: humiliated again. And look, he's got a decent enough track record,

337
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,720
Speaker 1: especially if Oz wins. But it's, like I said, in

338
00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:24,879
Speaker 1: a Trump country, which really is to me like the

339
00:17:24,920 --> 00:17:28,240
Speaker 1: industrial Midwest, the Trump endorsement matters a lot in the

340
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,199
Speaker 1: Deep South, like a Jeff Session. I mean, Jeff Sessions

341
00:17:31,200 --> 00:17:33,760
Speaker 1: did lose, I guess to be fair whenever he was running.

342
00:17:33,800 --> 00:17:36,240
Speaker 1: But in the Deep South where a lot of these people,

343
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,439
Speaker 1: especially with Trump more off the scene than he was

344
00:17:39,040 --> 00:17:42,200
Speaker 1: at the time, it's not so clear whether Republicans there

345
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 1: are going to take all of their cues from Trump.

346
00:17:44,359 --> 00:17:46,480
Speaker 1: And what they point to here, Crystal is that Mo

347
00:17:46,640 --> 00:17:49,760
Speaker 1: Brooks is in a dead heat with Kelly Britt, who

348
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:54,000
Speaker 1: looks like she could be the with Britt, who at

349
00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,439
Speaker 1: this time, you know, is holding thirty one percent. This

350
00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:59,119
Speaker 1: is from the Alabama Daily News Great TV poll that

351
00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:01,600
Speaker 1: just came out on Thursday. But Brooks was that twenty

352
00:18:01,680 --> 00:18:05,560
Speaker 1: nine percent, well well within the margin of error, and

353
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:08,359
Speaker 1: I just think it shows you. What's also interesting is

354
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:11,520
Speaker 1: that the other parts of the Republican establishment are also

355
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 1: kind of coming to Mobrooks's defense. So you both have

356
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,399
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz and Ran Paul who were down in Alabama

357
00:18:19,440 --> 00:18:22,399
Speaker 1: in a last minute effort in order to try and

358
00:18:22,480 --> 00:18:26,480
Speaker 1: get Mobrooks elected. He is actually desperately hated by Mitch

359
00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:29,440
Speaker 1: McConnell because he's more of a rabble rouser like a

360
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:31,880
Speaker 1: Rand Paul or a Ted Cruz more willing to hold

361
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:34,520
Speaker 1: up votes and to vote against the party establishment. And

362
00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,000
Speaker 1: he had that famous clip that we played here on

363
00:18:37,040 --> 00:18:39,199
Speaker 1: our show where he was talking about how much it

364
00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:41,920
Speaker 1: costs in order to buy committee seats and really just

365
00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:43,440
Speaker 1: telling the truth, being like, yeah, you want to know

366
00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,479
Speaker 1: how corrupt this whole place is, Yeah, this is how

367
00:18:45,520 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 1: it actually is. Well, he actually said he would not

368
00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:54,000
Speaker 1: support Mitch McConnell for majority leaders, So yeah, there's definitely yeah, yeah,

369
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 1: And that was I mean, that was one of that

370
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:58,800
Speaker 1: was sort of like on Trump's wish list of things

371
00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,919
Speaker 1: he wanted his candidates to so Mowbrooks checked every box.

372
00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 1: But since it looked like he was going to lose,

373
00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,480
Speaker 1: Trump walks away, He unindorses. He throws the most sort

374
00:19:09,520 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 1: of the worst thing you can possibly call someone in

375
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,000
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, which is woke. He throws that terminology

376
00:19:15,040 --> 00:19:17,640
Speaker 1: at him. And then my understanding of what happened here,

377
00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:20,439
Speaker 1: I'm not a no expert on Alabama politics, but Katie

378
00:19:20,440 --> 00:19:22,879
Speaker 1: Britt is kind of the She's a former chief of

379
00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:26,240
Speaker 1: staff to Senator Richard Shelby. She's kind of the establishment,

380
00:19:26,600 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 1: like pick the sort of Chamber of Commerce pick here,

381
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,199
Speaker 1: I guess you would say. And then Brooks and the

382
00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:36,720
Speaker 1: other dude, Mike Durrant, who's a retired black Hawk down

383
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:40,640
Speaker 1: Army pilot, those two have been trading off. So when

384
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:44,800
Speaker 1: Brooks was down, Durant was up. Now Durant has fallen

385
00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 1: off and Brooks has risen in the polls now to

386
00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 1: sort of rival Katie Britt. And what effectively happened here

387
00:19:50,840 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 1: is Britt was spending a bunch of money to attack

388
00:19:54,200 --> 00:19:57,480
Speaker 1: Durant and that caused him to fall off in the polls.

389
00:19:57,800 --> 00:20:00,600
Speaker 1: But instead of those voters going to her, they're going

390
00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:03,720
Speaker 1: to Brooks. So so that's kind of how that has

391
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,159
Speaker 1: shaken out. But it is pretty funny. I mean. The

392
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:08,919
Speaker 1: other thing that one of the articles I was reading

393
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 1: pointed out is that Trump does not have a great

394
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:16,480
Speaker 1: track record in Alabama. In the primary, he endorsed against

395
00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 1: Roy Moore. Oh yeah, it was big John, I do

396
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:24,159
Speaker 1: not remember. I think ends up winning, and then Trump

397
00:20:24,240 --> 00:20:27,199
Speaker 1: endorses more for the general election and then he ends

398
00:20:27,280 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 1: up losing. So Trump's track record in Alabama in particular not,

399
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 1: you know, not terribly good at this point. I honestly

400
00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:38,959
Speaker 1: think a lot of Trump's influence where it, you know,

401
00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:42,320
Speaker 1: where's the most significant and where it doesn't matter as much.

402
00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:43,800
Speaker 1: I do think it has a lot to do with

403
00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,359
Speaker 1: how well defined these public officials are in terms of

404
00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:51,600
Speaker 1: the public's mind to start with. You know, for Ohio,

405
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:56,919
Speaker 1: I think Trump jd Vance positioned himself in a smart

406
00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 1: way for the Republican base in Ohio, and Trump giving

407
00:21:00,040 --> 00:21:02,200
Speaker 1: him his blessing sort of create a permission structure for

408
00:21:02,240 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 1: them to forgive the things he said about Trump in

409
00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:05,520
Speaker 1: the past, like there was a desire to sort of

410
00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,119
Speaker 1: support him. Trump gives him his blessing. The field is

411
00:21:08,160 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 1: relatively undefined candidates. You know, Oz, there was a lot

412
00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 1: of skepticism about him, but none of those other candidates

413
00:21:13,720 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 1: in that primary in Pennsylvania particularly well defined. So Trump,

414
00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:18,720
Speaker 1: you know, the fact that you had a three way

415
00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 1: split there, and Trump putting the blessing on Oz maybe

416
00:21:23,080 --> 00:21:25,320
Speaker 1: looks like potentially gave him enough to get him over

417
00:21:25,320 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 1: the edge, but definitely not having the same impact in

418
00:21:28,240 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 1: Georgia or in Alabama at this point. Yeah. No, I

419
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:35,080
Speaker 1: think that's right. On the Democratic side, there is basically

420
00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,760
Speaker 1: one race that really is kind of the marquee, and

421
00:21:37,800 --> 00:21:43,080
Speaker 1: that's this Texas runoff between incumbent Democratic Congressman Henry Kuahar

422
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 1: and progressive lawyer Justicusisnaros. Let's go ahead and put this

423
00:21:48,119 --> 00:21:51,040
Speaker 1: one up on the screen, so you know, this is

424
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:54,880
Speaker 1: going to be a really interesting test of how Roe

425
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:57,880
Speaker 1: versus Wade plays in a district that frankly, it's an

426
00:21:57,880 --> 00:22:00,720
Speaker 1: interesting one because on the one and it is a

427
00:22:00,760 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 1: Democratic district, it's a pretty solidly blue district. On the

428
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: other hand, because you have a very large Latino population,

429
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 1: it's actually culturally conservative. So Henry Quaar, the incumbent Democrat there,

430
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:16,399
Speaker 1: is the only or one of the only remaining pro

431
00:22:16,480 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: life Democrats in the Democratic House Caucus that has not

432
00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,960
Speaker 1: stopped Nancy Pelosi. Jim Clyburn actually went to the district. Actually,

433
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:28,440
Speaker 1: Pelosi recorded a robocall for Quaar. This at the same

434
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 1: time that they're, you know, on the other side of

435
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 1: their mouth talking about how Roe versus Weight is, you know,

436
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,040
Speaker 1: this existential threat to women and Republican attacks on women

437
00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 1: and all of this, and yet they're still perfectly comfortable

438
00:22:39,640 --> 00:22:43,719
Speaker 1: with lining up behind their own incumbent pro life congressman.

439
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:46,159
Speaker 1: He's also very conservative on other issues. He was the

440
00:22:46,200 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: only Democratic vote against the pro Act in the House

441
00:22:49,440 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: as well, so he also is anti union in addition

442
00:22:52,359 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 1: to being anti choice. This is the second time that

443
00:22:56,359 --> 00:23:01,240
Speaker 1: Cisnaros has taken on quaar. Let's go ahead and put

444
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 1: the let's say which one is it? A eight up

445
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: on the screen there. She lost narrowly last election cycle.

446
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,200
Speaker 1: She forced him into a runoff, and then he narrowly

447
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 1: defeated her by about three thousand votes. This is, you know,

448
00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 1: she's once again forced him into a runoff and well,

449
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,760
Speaker 1: plot twist, the FBI raided his house. Now we don't know.

450
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:26,760
Speaker 1: I want to be careful here whether he is the

451
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:29,200
Speaker 1: target of this investigation. Go ahead and put a seven

452
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,280
Speaker 1: up on the screen here, But we now have word

453
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 1: that the FBI will not officially clear him of wrongdoing.

454
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 1: If they are going to clear mos of wrongdoing before

455
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 1: election day. This is you know, your home and office

456
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,159
Speaker 1: being rated by the FBI is pretty extraordinary, especially you

457
00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:49,440
Speaker 1: know they try to avoid sort of intervening in politics,

458
00:23:49,440 --> 00:23:51,640
Speaker 1: but they do not do this unless there is an

459
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:54,760
Speaker 1: extremely good reason. I remember, actually, whenever we said that

460
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 1: about Richard Burr, I was like, look, you don't take

461
00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,320
Speaker 1: a sitting member of Congress's cell phone. You know, there's

462
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 1: something that's getting in terms into somebody's house, right, So

463
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:07,080
Speaker 1: I did some digging into what this might be about.

464
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: And again we don't have any word from the FBI.

465
00:24:09,720 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 1: This is all somewhat speculation. ABC News had reported the

466
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: rate was part of a federal grand jury probe. Subpoenas

467
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:22,359
Speaker 1: sought records from organizations with ties to Azerbaijan, as well

468
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,479
Speaker 1: as three Texas companies with ties to Quaar's wife. So, uh,

469
00:24:26,720 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 1: Quaar randomly has all these deep ties now to Azerbaijan.

470
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 1: He traveled there in twenty thirteen. Two years later, they

471
00:24:36,960 --> 00:24:39,600
Speaker 1: announced an agreement between Texas A and M and an

472
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:43,240
Speaker 1: organization called the Assembly of Friends of Azerbaijan for the

473
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 1: purposes of collaborating on oil and gas research and education.

474
00:24:47,080 --> 00:24:50,240
Speaker 1: He's reportedly taken his own troops to Azerbaijan. He co

475
00:24:50,440 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 1: shares the Congressional Azerbaijan Caucus also, according to the Texas Tribune.

476
00:24:56,520 --> 00:25:01,159
Speaker 1: So the speculation is there are some sort of something

477
00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:04,520
Speaker 1: going on between the Quayars and Azerbaijohn, the FBI. So

478
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:06,959
Speaker 1: I mean, I do so full disclosure. My parents were

479
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: for A and M, but I think it's a different

480
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,920
Speaker 1: A and M than whatever this one is. But as

481
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 1: I understand it, Azerbaijan also has a lot of oil,

482
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 1: so it could make sense that he's doing advacy on

483
00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: behalf of the oil industry. But I mean maybe you

484
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 1: know a little bit more than that. And then the

485
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: wife has some businesses with Anyway, in general, whenever when

486
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: aral Central Asian Caucasian and I mean that Central Asian

487
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 1: Caucasian businessman comes to you, you should probably say no.

488
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 1: If you are a member of Congress of Congress, didn't

489
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:38,960
Speaker 1: think you'd have to say that. That's a reminder to

490
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 1: Hunter Biden too. Yeah, by the way, so you know,

491
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: to tie a bow on this saying I am going

492
00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: to show you a little bit of their ads. And

493
00:25:44,720 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 1: then we also had a reporter from Status kup on

494
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 1: the ground they're talking to voters. Bernie Sanders came into

495
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: the district versus NAIs, did a big rally there. All

496
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: of sort of the progressive left have lined up behind Ciesnaro's.

497
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: Like I said, this is her her second crack at

498
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 1: this thing. She came very close last time, and last

499
00:25:59,359 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: time there was not and you know, open FBI investigation

500
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: involving the congressman but you know, it is extraordinary that

501
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:09,399
Speaker 1: I get it. He's your incumbent, but sky is at

502
00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:12,119
Speaker 1: odds with you in terms of choice and in terms

503
00:26:12,119 --> 00:26:14,800
Speaker 1: of unions at a time when reversus weight is obviously

504
00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: really really central to what a lot of the Democratic

505
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:21,679
Speaker 1: base is focused on. And that Cliburne came to the

506
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 1: district Felosi recording robocalls for him, where she said, you know,

507
00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:26,439
Speaker 1: we stood with hard working people even though he's the

508
00:26:26,480 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: loan vote against the pro Act. You know, it tells

509
00:26:28,880 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 1: you how committed they are to their own principles. We

510
00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: have a little bit of sound to play for you,

511
00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 1: starting with a Quare, a hilariously low budget Quaar ad

512
00:26:40,160 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 1: that very much portrays him kind of in the district,

513
00:26:42,320 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: knocking doors, being the man who has the deep roots

514
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 1: and tithes in the community. That's how he wants to

515
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 1: portray himself. And this is an and then after that,

516
00:26:50,280 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 1: immediately following it is a Justice DEM's ad which is

517
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,199
Speaker 1: focused on abortion rights, which I think is probably more

518
00:26:57,240 --> 00:26:59,920
Speaker 1: of an online play than what the in district method

519
00:27:00,280 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: is forces Naro. So you've got sort of the local

520
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 1: play from Quaar, and then you've got what the outside

521
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: groups are saying to the national audience forces Naros, let's

522
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: take a listen to that. Speaker of the House, Nancy

523
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 1: Felosi is once again reiterating her support for the lone

524
00:27:31,960 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 1: member of the House Democratic Caucus who opposes abortion rights.

525
00:27:36,280 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 1: House majority with Jim Clivern rally support from Constant Quair

526
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: and San Antonio. Yesterday, we are watching the fall of Rome.

527
00:27:43,040 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 1: We don't want Henry Quare to be the deciding vote

528
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: on the future of our fundamental freedoms and rights in

529
00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:52,600
Speaker 1: this country. I really hope that the Democratic leadership doesn't

530
00:27:52,600 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 1: stand in the way of the change that House Texans one.

531
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 1: So anyway, there's some of the messaging both from on

532
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: the ground and also kind of what national folks are

533
00:28:02,080 --> 00:28:05,160
Speaker 1: talking about. I also will say there's reports from Dan

534
00:28:05,200 --> 00:28:07,280
Speaker 1: Maren's of Huffin and posts good on the ground reporter

535
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 1: or not on the ground there, but good reporter on

536
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:14,600
Speaker 1: progressive politics. In particular, Quayar is definitely using every dirty

537
00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,439
Speaker 1: trick in the book. They put out these flyers that

538
00:28:17,480 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 1: are meant to look like newspaper articles saying FBI clears Quair.

539
00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 1: That's not true, by the way, not true at all.

540
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: They also accused Ciscenaros of being a quote home wrecker,

541
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,960
Speaker 1: so clearly he feels it's enough of a threat to

542
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 1: kind of dig into the bag of dirty tricks. As

543
00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: I mentioned before, we did have a reporter on the

544
00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 1: ground from Status KU who was talking to some of

545
00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 1: the voters I believe they were outside of that Bernie

546
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:45,760
Speaker 1: rally for cis Naros, and one woman in particular indicating

547
00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: that she actually had been a Quaar supporter and she

548
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:51,120
Speaker 1: was switching her vote this time around, specifically because of

549
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 1: abortion rights. Let's take a listen to that. What brings

550
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:58,640
Speaker 1: you out here to support a Jessica today? I'm not

551
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:03,479
Speaker 1: voting for Henry Quair anymore. That was that a recent

552
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: I know there was a lot of national attention after

553
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 1: Roe v. Wade and people coming up. I mean that

554
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,080
Speaker 1: was the determining impactor. I probably would have just kept

555
00:29:13,160 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 1: voting for him because he's the person who was the incumbent.

556
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: But I am more aligned with ESCO's policies for what

557
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:24,040
Speaker 1: she believes in on lots of issues, and I totally

558
00:29:24,080 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: agree that we need a new person in there who's

559
00:29:27,840 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: not just in it for the money. Well that's a

560
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,560
Speaker 1: and being in it for the money. What are your

561
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: thoughts after that sort of game, that national attention, that

562
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:40,240
Speaker 1: a lot of Democratic super packs and then we had

563
00:29:40,400 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 1: losing Cliburne come into support. I was shocked by that.

564
00:29:43,960 --> 00:29:46,479
Speaker 1: I was very upset that Clyburn came to do that.

565
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,240
Speaker 1: I don't know what he was thinking with that. I

566
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 1: think that people don't really a lot of people don't

567
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:55,200
Speaker 1: really care about what the issues are. They vote against

568
00:29:55,240 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: their own self interest all the time, and they're just

569
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 1: totally tribal. I think it's my much more about what

570
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: team you're on than it is about what policies you want.

571
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:07,600
Speaker 1: So hard to say how reflective that is of the

572
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:10,640
Speaker 1: broader district. Who knows. I mean, I was telling you

573
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: it's a crazy part of the country. I really recommend

574
00:30:13,200 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 1: everybody try and go there because it is unlike basically

575
00:30:16,440 --> 00:30:19,719
Speaker 1: anything that you'll have ever seen in terms of the politics,

576
00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: Like that's a bare that's nothing compared to how it

577
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: usually operates down in deep South Texas. And Henry Quaar

578
00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 1: has been a player for a long time in terms

579
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:31,760
Speaker 1: of his ability to basically have the votes be a

580
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 1: representative there of the South Texas you know area, but

581
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,640
Speaker 1: also have deep, deep ties to the oil and gas industry,

582
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: in the business community in Texas. He's beloved, you know,

583
00:30:40,760 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: even amongst a lot of Texas Republicans and like very

584
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 1: establishment types. So we'll see how it pulls out. It's

585
00:30:46,720 --> 00:30:49,080
Speaker 1: going to be an interesting one in terms of the

586
00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 1: actual electorate. I genuinely have no idea. I mean, a

587
00:30:52,200 --> 00:30:55,120
Speaker 1: lot of these people are actually Catholic and are probably

588
00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: personally pro life. That being said, I don't think that

589
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,320
Speaker 1: they've ever cared that much about abortion because a lot

590
00:31:00,320 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: of them have also voted Democrat. But you also see

591
00:31:02,720 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: that the South Texas GOP swing does continue in some

592
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:08,480
Speaker 1: of the mayoral elections and in some of the more

593
00:31:08,520 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 1: Republican enthusiasm down there. Also, not all South Texan you know,

594
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: Hispanics are the same, So these people are long standing Democrats.

595
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:18,720
Speaker 1: More to say, we'll see what happened. Yeah, we will

596
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:21,120
Speaker 1: see what happens. And we do know that it's been

597
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,560
Speaker 1: shifting enough versus Narows to come very close now almost

598
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: one lift, Yeah, she almost one last time. She's obviously

599
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: forced him into a runoff again. So they're clearly, at

600
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: least among the Democratic base are some frustrations. Will it

601
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: be enough between the FBI investigation and robing the center

602
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: of democratic based politics. Right now, will it be enough?

603
00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:43,360
Speaker 1: I think it's really impossible to say yeah, we'll see. Okay,

604
00:31:43,440 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: let's move on here. Let's talk about doctor Oz. We

605
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:47,840
Speaker 1: still don't know if he's going to be the next

606
00:31:48,240 --> 00:31:50,800
Speaker 1: GOP nominee or not. So let's put this up there

607
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,880
Speaker 1: on the screen from Steve Kornaki. So here's what he says.

608
00:31:55,120 --> 00:31:57,440
Speaker 1: Where things stand right now, we are still waiting on

609
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 1: the remaining ten precincts from Allegheny County that should be

610
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: small about five hundred ballots. There are roughly eight thousand

611
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: mail in ballots scattered across the state, perhaps two to

612
00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 1: three hundred overseas military ballots, and then up to two

613
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 1: thousand provisional ballots, and likely fewer now before that. What's

614
00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: been happening is that the OZ statewide lead is around

615
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,360
Speaker 1: one thousand votes. That is significant because the latest batch

616
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,760
Speaker 1: that came in from Allegheny County actually had our OZ

617
00:32:25,920 --> 00:32:29,840
Speaker 1: beating McCormick, which matters because McCormick is from Allegheny County,

618
00:32:29,840 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 1: and we pointed out previously at Pennsylvania has this weird

619
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: thing where if you're from a county they print your

620
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: name first. By the way, it doesn't seem fair to me.

621
00:32:37,480 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: I think it should probably, I guess alphabet whatever. I

622
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:42,360
Speaker 1: don't know exactly how these things should be determined, but

623
00:32:42,720 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 1: that seems like it would give a person a home advantage,

624
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: and that was long pointed to by the analysts on

625
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:50,760
Speaker 1: our show as well. Now, in terms of what's happening

626
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,240
Speaker 1: though with the metaphyte in reference to our first block

627
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 1: on Stop the Steal, there's quite a bit of hypocrisy

628
00:32:57,400 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: going on here from mister McCormick. Let's put this up

629
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 1: there on the screen. McCormick's campaign has now sent a

630
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: letter to all counties in Pennsylvania arguing that undated mail

631
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 1: in ballots should be counted, citing a court order that

632
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 1: found a state law requiring that ballots be dated is

633
00:33:15,240 --> 00:33:19,959
Speaker 1: immaterial under federal law. Now, Crystal, I recall an entire

634
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:25,200
Speaker 1: high IQ Stop the Steel discussion about Pennsylvania election law

635
00:33:25,400 --> 00:33:29,120
Speaker 1: and about how this defrauded the voters of Pennsylvania and

636
00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: how undated ballots themselves were a form of theft on

637
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 1: par enough for a senator from Missouri in order to

638
00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:40,160
Speaker 1: object to the certification of Pennsylvania election results in the

639
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,880
Speaker 1: United States Senate in the midst of a mob that

640
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 1: was trying to storm the Capitol. But hey, that was

641
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:47,600
Speaker 1: just like a year ago. What do I know about

642
00:33:48,360 --> 00:33:52,080
Speaker 1: what's going on here? Very interesting to see the stop

643
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:56,560
Speaker 1: the steal candidates themselves. McCormick, who is fully on board

644
00:33:56,760 --> 00:33:59,920
Speaker 1: the election was stolen. Now when his asses on the line,

645
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,200
Speaker 1: he's like, oh, no, we got to count those ballots. Yeah,

646
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: we gotta get those camp ballots counted immediately. So most

647
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:08,920
Speaker 1: like it was never a principal time, so it's not interesting.

648
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:12,399
Speaker 1: Interesting Doctor Oz actually calling him out on this. Let's

649
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:15,360
Speaker 1: put this up there in terms of his statement, He's like,

650
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 1: David McCormick is a formidable opponent, but it is becoming

651
00:34:18,440 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 1: obvious he is likely to come up short. Unfortunately, he

652
00:34:21,200 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: is following the Democrat playbook, a tactic that could have

653
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: long term harmful consequences for elections in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.

654
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:32,240
Speaker 1: It's a clear contrast between doctor Oz just secure America's

655
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:35,319
Speaker 1: process and John Fetterman. So now he's actually pivoting to

656
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: attacking John Fetterman and extreme liberal socialists. What he is

657
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:43,320
Speaker 1: doing is doctor Oz is reclaiming to stop the Steel

658
00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:46,040
Speaker 1: ground in order to bludgeon McCormick. So look, the bottom

659
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: line is, we have no idea what's going to happen.

660
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,839
Speaker 1: This thing is absolutely going to a recount because it's

661
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:54,120
Speaker 1: within the point five margin of error. What exactly that

662
00:34:54,200 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 1: means for the actual vote count itself, given that we

663
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:00,680
Speaker 1: still don't even have that, I think that's crazy. I

664
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:04,560
Speaker 1: think the only legitimate stop the steel argument that I've

665
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:07,000
Speaker 1: found amongst the high IQ discourse is why the hell

666
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 1: does it take so long to count these votes? That's

667
00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,200
Speaker 1: the one thing I don't understand. Yeah, why does it

668
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 1: take this long? Pennsylvania, I mean New York, Remember it

669
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,880
Speaker 1: takes like weeks in order to count primary ballots. That

670
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: is the one thing. New York is a complete A

671
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 1: lot of places around there. I truly don't know. Maybe

672
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: this is just the price of living in a federalist

673
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,399
Speaker 1: country where every state, you know, gets to decide how

674
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:27,960
Speaker 1: this stuff is run. But we got to we got

675
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:29,839
Speaker 1: to make sure that this stuff is fast. We still don't.

676
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: We still don't know the results in Oregon, yeah, where

677
00:35:32,320 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: a Democratic incomment probably lost, but although by mail, So yeah,

678
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:40,359
Speaker 1: it's a little more understandable there. But yeah, so, I mean,

679
00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,720
Speaker 1: this thing is as close as it comes. It's still

680
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: possible for McCormick to pull it out in the mail

681
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 1: in ballot, you know, when that those all get counted,

682
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: because he did better in the mail in balloting than

683
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 1: he did on the election day balloting. But the fact

684
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 1: that the votes that came in, uh from Alleghany County

685
00:35:56,880 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: that hadn't been counted on election day but came in

686
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,880
Speaker 1: on election day, that those went for Oz, that was

687
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,240
Speaker 1: a pretty big blow to him. I mean, in terms

688
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,080
Speaker 1: of the undated ballots, like McCormick I think is right

689
00:36:07,080 --> 00:36:10,280
Speaker 1: on the substance, if they came in in time before

690
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:15,560
Speaker 1: election day, then obviously they weren't like recorded after election day.

691
00:36:15,600 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 1: If they came in election if it's legal, then it's legal. Yeah.

692
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 1: I mean, if you want to out, you're welcome to.

693
00:36:22,120 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: The court decision has also already ruled, as he's pointing to.

694
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,360
Speaker 1: But it is hilarious the way that he is clearly,

695
00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 1: but at that time they were telling us that that

696
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 1: court was, oh, that was violating. Yeah, exactly, Well, we

697
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 1: also know that the court's legitimate. We also know if

698
00:36:35,120 --> 00:36:37,319
Speaker 1: OZ was on the other side of that, you would

699
00:36:37,320 --> 00:36:40,280
Speaker 1: be doing the same thing. So anyway, just typical typical

700
00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 1: politics there, you know, in terms of what this means

701
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,640
Speaker 1: for the fall, I think, look, still, Republicans, whether it's

702
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,720
Speaker 1: McCormick or Oz, definitely had the edge. I personally think

703
00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:51,799
Speaker 1: Oz is a stronger candidate in the fall because he

704
00:36:51,840 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 1: has that celebrity potential crossover appeal. There were other analysts

705
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:59,759
Speaker 1: who were making the other case. I just don't agree that.

706
00:37:00,080 --> 00:37:03,800
Speaker 1: You know, he had low favorability ratings with the Republican base. True,

707
00:37:04,600 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: so maybe that would depress Republican turnout for him in

708
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,399
Speaker 1: the fall, but I just don't see that. I think

709
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,680
Speaker 1: Republicans are going to be energized in the fall to

710
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: vote against Democrats no matter who their candidate ultimately is.

711
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: They are one hundred percent going to be there to

712
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: support doctor Ozz, even though they may not love him

713
00:37:19,000 --> 00:37:22,719
Speaker 1: over John Fetterman. So I think, you know, he'll have

714
00:37:22,760 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 1: the Republican base. The question is Kenny get those independent

715
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:29,440
Speaker 1: and crossover votes, especially when issues like row will be

716
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 1: will be central, And I personally think Oz probably has

717
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: a better chance of pulling that up than David McCormick,

718
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 1: who is like a nothing special Hedge Fund, juche bag. Yeah,

719
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,359
Speaker 1: I was trying to explain this to some people who

720
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: were telling me otherwise. I'm like, doctor Oz has the

721
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:45,400
Speaker 1: same strength that Trump has in that he's ideologically malleable.

722
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 1: He doesn't care about anything. Now that's a good thing,

723
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: and it's a bad thing. It's a good thing because

724
00:37:51,040 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 1: David McCormick actually does have a worldview, and it's bad. Right,

725
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 1: he worked for edge Fund, and you know, instrumental working

726
00:37:58,960 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 1: for one of the most pro China billionaires in America

727
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 1: who continues to be an outright shill. Doctor Oz basically

728
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 1: just goes wherever the winds blow. Now that's exactly what

729
00:38:08,960 --> 00:38:13,080
Speaker 1: Trump did. Ideological malleability is exactly actually how you win

730
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 1: over voters. You know, a lot of people don't know this,

731
00:38:15,360 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 1: but in twenty sixteen, Donald Trump was actually rated as

732
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: less conservative than Mitt Romney amongst the general electorate. Right,

733
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: there's a reason for that because he was saying stuff

734
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: about trade, he was saying things about you know, healthcare

735
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 1: making obviously all these promises, and that actually bore out

736
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: in the twenty twenty election as well. A lot of

737
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 1: self identified moderates voted for Trump because they see him

738
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,239
Speaker 1: as less conservative on a lot of stuff, and by

739
00:38:39,239 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 1: that I mean the ones that are most out of step. Now,

740
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,719
Speaker 1: obviously doctor Oz is pro life, but I don't see

741
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 1: a world where doctor Oz is endorsing like outright national

742
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: bands the way that herschel Walker just came out and

743
00:38:50,680 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: said in Georgia, by the way, good luck with that.

744
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 1: Yeah in that state. Yeah, you know, it is interesting.

745
00:38:56,360 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: In twenty sixteen between Trump and Hillary, voter said Trump

746
00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:03,120
Speaker 1: was more moderate than Hillary's twenty twenty voters said Biden

747
00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 1: was more moderate than Trump. So, you know, in terms

748
00:39:06,600 --> 00:39:10,440
Speaker 1: of sort of who independents found more appealing, I do

749
00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 1: think that ultimately made a difference. So, you know, I think,

750
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:15,479
Speaker 1: as I said before, I think Democrats put up about

751
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: the best candidate that they can in John Fetterman, who

752
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:20,520
Speaker 1: has deep roots in the state, who has a good affect,

753
00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: who has a kind of you know, genuine, authentic everyman vibe.

754
00:39:24,120 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 1: He's got himself positioned in a relatively intelligent way in

755
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:31,320
Speaker 1: terms of economics, kind of populist economics, and has moderated

756
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 1: some culturally in terms of his positioning on criminal justice

757
00:39:34,680 --> 00:39:39,600
Speaker 1: and on immigration. But can you overcome those national headwins,

758
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,160
Speaker 1: especially when you're going up against someone who I do

759
00:39:42,200 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 1: think is a formidable competitor. I think it's a very, very,

760
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,080
Speaker 1: a very large challenge. I think this ristal if he

761
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 1: ran in twenty eighteen, John Fetterman is going to be

762
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 1: the next senator, right, you know, Bob Casey at the time,

763
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:54,360
Speaker 1: I just looked it up one fifty five percent of

764
00:39:54,360 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 1: the vote. But it's not twenty eighteen, you know, twenty

765
00:39:56,840 --> 00:39:59,520
Speaker 1: twenty two. Yeah, and the political environment is just completely

766
00:40:00,280 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 1: at this time, and there's just not a lot that

767
00:40:02,239 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 1: you can do about that. You know, betterment is probably

768
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,840
Speaker 1: as moderate, well known, you know, in the entire state

769
00:40:07,920 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 1: as Bob Casey was. But you know, as you saw

770
00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 1: at that time, even Lou Barletta actually wasn't a terrible

771
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 1: candidate there for the state of Pennsylvania, but he lost

772
00:40:16,120 --> 00:40:18,720
Speaker 1: because of the national environment. It's just how it goes

773
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 1: in terms of these things, the national environment and how

774
00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:30,239
Speaker 1: terrible the polls look for the Biden administration right now.

775
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,799
Speaker 1: I feel like we could do this segment every day,

776
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:35,759
Speaker 1: but the numbers continue to get worse and worse and worse.

777
00:40:35,800 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 1: So we have to keep talking about it. Let's go

778
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,760
Speaker 1: and put the latest from at O'Keeffe. This is details

779
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 1: from a CBS News you gov poll. His editorial here

780
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 1: is there's large and growing pessimism about the national economy,

781
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 1: stock market, and inflation. Fact outlook on the cost of

782
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,480
Speaker 1: things gets the most pessimism of the items tested, following

783
00:40:53,560 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 1: by pessimism about the national economy. Eric, keep this up

784
00:40:56,640 --> 00:40:58,600
Speaker 1: on the screen because I want to read off these numbers.

785
00:40:58,920 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 1: So he has up here the comparison between when these

786
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:05,640
Speaker 1: same things were tested back in September of twenty twenty one,

787
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:09,560
Speaker 1: not all that long ago, versus now. So now we

788
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:13,880
Speaker 1: have seventy seven percent saying they're pessimistic about the cost

789
00:41:13,880 --> 00:41:17,720
Speaker 1: of goods and services. Seventy seven percent back in September

790
00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: was still bad. It was seventy percent, but it's gotten worse.

791
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:24,759
Speaker 1: National economy, you now have sixty eight percent saying they're pessimistic.

792
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:27,680
Speaker 1: Back in September that was fifty eight percent, So it

793
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,360
Speaker 1: was bad, it's gotten a lot worse. Same story with

794
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:33,440
Speaker 1: the stock market. Sixty seven percent now say they are

795
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: pessimistic about the stock market. That compares to forty nine

796
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:41,040
Speaker 1: percent back in September of twenty twenty one. In terms

797
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,680
Speaker 1: of people sentiment about the president himself. Let's go ahead

798
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:45,720
Speaker 1: and put this next piece up on the screen. Also

799
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:51,200
Speaker 1: from Ed O'Keefe, he says he gets relatively alone. Also

800
00:41:51,320 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 1: not good to hire marks for caring about people than

801
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 1: he does for being quick to react to events. Overwhelmingly,

802
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:59,960
Speaker 1: sixty five percent of people say that when I'm poor

803
00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 1: things come up, Biden is slow to react. That's versus

804
00:42:04,400 --> 00:42:09,239
Speaker 1: thirty five percent who say that he addresses things right away. Now, Oh, Keith,

805
00:42:09,320 --> 00:42:11,959
Speaker 1: spin is that he's like people feel like he cares

806
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:15,520
Speaker 1: about you. Not really. Fifty six percent say that he

807
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:19,200
Speaker 1: either doesn't care much or not at all about people

808
00:42:19,280 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 1: like them. It's just those numbers aren't quite as bad

809
00:42:21,960 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 1: as the numbers on when important things come up, Biden

810
00:42:24,880 --> 00:42:27,479
Speaker 1: is slow to react. And I just think that's hard

811
00:42:27,480 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 1: to deny, Sager frankly. I mean this has been even

812
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 1: among their allies, they admit that this has been a

813
00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,880
Speaker 1: very reactive administration. There isn't a sense that there's a plan,

814
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 1: a vision, that they're anticipating problems and getting out ahead

815
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:42,680
Speaker 1: of them. It very much seems like, you know, events

816
00:42:42,719 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 1: happen and they're sort of buffeted by them. And after

817
00:42:45,360 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 1: a too you know, too long of the wait. Under

818
00:42:48,719 --> 00:42:50,879
Speaker 1: a lot of public pressure, maybe they'll move to act.

819
00:42:50,880 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 1: The baby formula crisis is a perfect example. They admitted

820
00:42:53,480 --> 00:42:57,400
Speaker 1: they knew this was a problem for for literally months,

821
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:00,719
Speaker 1: and yet it took to get it getting to the

822
00:43:00,760 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 1: point where, you know, babies were having to literally be

823
00:43:03,680 --> 00:43:07,200
Speaker 1: admitted to the hospital because they couldn't get the nutrition

824
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: that they needed, especially babies that needed special formulas for

825
00:43:11,480 --> 00:43:14,160
Speaker 1: them to actually act and do anything. So I think

826
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: it's pretty hard to deny that, you know, whatever you

827
00:43:17,000 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 1: think of the overall direction, that they've been very reactive

828
00:43:20,360 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 1: and it's been very slow and sort of on the

829
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:25,360
Speaker 1: back foot in terms of responding to emergent events in

830
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:26,840
Speaker 1: the world and here in the country. I think the

831
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: hardest number for him, I think cares about people like

832
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 1: me has always been one of the most important questions

833
00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 1: in all of politics, and Biden cares a lot about

834
00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: people like you a lot. Nineteen percent, some twenty five,

835
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,319
Speaker 1: not much, twenty two, not at all, thirty four. What's

836
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,840
Speaker 1: the biggest number there? And then what's the second biggest number?

837
00:43:43,040 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: Like when you point to these things and the you know,

838
00:43:46,600 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 1: basic majority of people say that Biden does not seem

839
00:43:49,400 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: to care about people like me and then is slow

840
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:55,120
Speaker 1: to react, which is obviously something hard to define, but

841
00:43:55,160 --> 00:43:58,319
Speaker 1: it's a vibe almost in a certain way. It just

842
00:43:58,600 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: is generally true in the terms of how he's reacting

843
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:03,880
Speaker 1: to major events. I'm doing my whole monologue on this

844
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,080
Speaker 1: on exactly what Biden could do literally right now, in

845
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 1: order to lower the price of gas. Relatively bipartisan, I think,

846
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:12,640
Speaker 1: in both of these solutions, and yet not a single

847
00:44:12,680 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 1: one of them has even been discussed, has no bill

848
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,960
Speaker 1: on the floor, nothing in the administration, and the record

849
00:44:19,000 --> 00:44:22,920
Speaker 1: price hits the record every day for the last three weeks.

850
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 1: What's happening? I mean, you know, gas is four point

851
00:44:26,160 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: fifty a gallon nationally, and yet there is no discussion.

852
00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 1: We're heading into summer, rolling blackouts are on the horizon

853
00:44:33,960 --> 00:44:37,800
Speaker 1: in Texas, in Indiana, and in California. We have major

854
00:44:37,960 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: grid issues and stuff that the military and others should

855
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 1: be working on right now. What's happening? I mean, this

856
00:44:44,600 --> 00:44:47,040
Speaker 1: is what these are. And by the way, if you

857
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 1: think that the Biden approval rating is, you know, as

858
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,840
Speaker 1: low as it is right now the dog days of summer,

859
00:44:53,200 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: you know, mid July, late July rolling blackouts and six

860
00:44:57,160 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: dollars twenty gas nationally. What's gonna happen? I mean, yeah, yeah,

861
00:45:01,160 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 1: you're you're dead. I mean, Doug Basiretto will be governor

862
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 1: then just go ahead and watch out for that. So

863
00:45:06,400 --> 00:45:09,360
Speaker 1: I just think that all of this is so obviously true.

864
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:11,560
Speaker 1: And that's why the reason we did the segment is

865
00:45:11,560 --> 00:45:15,200
Speaker 1: because the White House response to this is insane. Put

866
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 1: this up there on the screen. The White House Chief

867
00:45:17,320 --> 00:45:20,799
Speaker 1: of Staff Ron Klaan tweets this quote. I hate to

868
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 1: spoil the narrative, but this poll shows potus approval rating

869
00:45:25,000 --> 00:45:29,200
Speaker 1: moving up and solid public confidence on the two biggest

870
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 1: problems that he inherited, COVID and jobs. And what they're

871
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: pointing to is that, yeah, he has a high, you know,

872
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 1: percent of approval on COVID, and you know, on jobs

873
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:43,480
Speaker 1: kind of it's okay, But on COVID it's fifty three

874
00:45:43,600 --> 00:45:46,919
Speaker 1: forty seven. Yeah, an issue that you know, has really

875
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 1: moved to the back special terms. And here's the top

876
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,479
Speaker 1: concern nobody cares about COVID jobs fifty two to forty eight.

877
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,479
Speaker 1: On the approval rating thing, it's particularly dishonest. It's quote

878
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:56,680
Speaker 1: unquote moved up to forty four. It was forty two

879
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,080
Speaker 1: percent last month, within the margin of error. So you're

880
00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:01,719
Speaker 1: within the margin and you're below fifty and you're also

881
00:46:01,880 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 1: the most unpopular president of our modern times, well or

882
00:46:05,960 --> 00:46:09,040
Speaker 1: at least tied with Donald Trump. That takes skill, I

883
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 1: mean in terms of how bad that is and at

884
00:46:11,760 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 1: you know, at least Trump. What they would always say

885
00:46:14,320 --> 00:46:15,680
Speaker 1: is they'd be like, yeah, but he has a great

886
00:46:15,719 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 1: approval radio amongst Republicans, which actually did turn out to

887
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: mean something whenever it came to Republicans who were going

888
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 1: to back him no matter what. Yeah, half a Democrats

889
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 1: don't even want Biden to run anymore. They don't approve

890
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:28,359
Speaker 1: of the job that he's doing. They think that he's

891
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 1: not paying attention to the major problems in the economy.

892
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:34,440
Speaker 1: So you have no base enthusiasm. There's not a lot

893
00:46:34,480 --> 00:46:38,120
Speaker 1: of people out there who identify as Biden stands. You know,

894
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 1: there is no like organic Biden you know movement, and

895
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 1: I guess you know, the whole reason he was elected

896
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: was simply to you know, lessen the drama and make

897
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:48,680
Speaker 1: the trains run on time. You know, he said he

898
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 1: knew a lot about trains, and yet every single thing

899
00:46:52,160 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: in the economy seems chaotic, and the worst part is

900
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,719
Speaker 1: he does not seem to be relentlessly focused on it.

901
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 1: And you know, I think that the visual on this

902
00:47:00,400 --> 00:47:04,000
Speaker 1: stuff are really bad. Especially we've talked about the Ukraine Aid.

903
00:47:04,080 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 1: You could support it if you want to. I think

904
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,560
Speaker 1: it's way too big and doesn't have enough constraining powers

905
00:47:08,560 --> 00:47:11,720
Speaker 1: on it. But forty four billion or forty billion dollars

906
00:47:11,760 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 1: that was passed bipartisan too Ukraine. That was easy, not

907
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:17,399
Speaker 1: just with Congress, but in terms of the administration where

908
00:47:17,440 --> 00:47:20,920
Speaker 1: their focus is. The baby formula shortage is happening, completely,

909
00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: scrambling gas, diesel food, I mean, so many of these

910
00:47:24,400 --> 00:47:27,040
Speaker 1: other things. I'm not saying many Republicans would vote for

911
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 1: big packages for all of those, but at the very

912
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: least the administration should be focused on them, because the

913
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,080
Speaker 1: people out there are at the very least buying a

914
00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:38,560
Speaker 1: lot of Republican messaging on this stuff. And why wouldn't

915
00:47:38,600 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 1: they if they were to point to the fact that

916
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:45,359
Speaker 1: the alternative is literally nothing done by the executive who

917
00:47:45,640 --> 00:47:48,400
Speaker 1: has had a long time in order to deal with

918
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:51,200
Speaker 1: these things and continues to have the space to make

919
00:47:51,239 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 1: it a public conversation. I mean, why is he in

920
00:47:53,600 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 1: Asia right now? I don't get it. You know, I'm

921
00:47:55,480 --> 00:47:57,320
Speaker 1: not saying the Asian alliances. I think they're probably the

922
00:47:57,360 --> 00:48:00,120
Speaker 1: most important things in the world, But why are you

923
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:03,399
Speaker 1: on some grand foreign tour like this is the main

924
00:48:03,760 --> 00:48:07,000
Speaker 1: focus of yours and on foreign affairs? He actually still

925
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 1: only has some fifty five percent approval rates. It's decent approval.

926
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,960
Speaker 1: Writing on his handling of Ukraine whatever whatever, I mean,

927
00:48:13,960 --> 00:48:15,880
Speaker 1: the media has really backed him up on that. I

928
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,320
Speaker 1: think that explains a lot of it. You know, I

929
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:20,879
Speaker 1: think on the Asia trip, what the administration would say

930
00:48:20,920 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 1: is this deals directly with the supply chain issues and

931
00:48:24,000 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 1: focusing on the long term to make sure that this

932
00:48:26,000 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 1: doesn't happen again. But to your point, you've got some

933
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,040
Speaker 1: really short term, immediate fires that you need to deal

934
00:48:31,080 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: with right here and now. So I think voters are

935
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:37,720
Speaker 1: probably not going to reward him for that longer term play,

936
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:41,880
Speaker 1: you know. Also devastating within these numbers is the fact

937
00:48:41,880 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 1: that the demographic group by age that gives him the

938
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: worst marks is the youngest voters. So once again it's

939
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,399
Speaker 1: voters under thirty. Sixty six percent of voters under thirty

940
00:48:51,480 --> 00:48:53,839
Speaker 1: say he's too slow to react, and they also gave

941
00:48:53,920 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: him very bad marks on cares about people like me.

942
00:48:57,600 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: I think your point about that one is really important,

943
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 1: because that was was a core strength of Biden. Core

944
00:49:04,719 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 1: strength of Biden was basically like, yeah, his record sucks,

945
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:09,880
Speaker 1: and we didn't like these other things he did, and

946
00:49:09,880 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 1: he's like verbally in conon, probably on the decline, but

947
00:49:13,920 --> 00:49:16,200
Speaker 1: I do feel like he's kind of a genuine person.

948
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:18,720
Speaker 1: I just got that every man vibe that like gets

949
00:49:18,719 --> 00:49:21,120
Speaker 1: what my family's going through, and I have a general

950
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,680
Speaker 1: affection for him. The fact that those numbers now have

951
00:49:24,760 --> 00:49:28,120
Speaker 1: fallen off a cliff are that that really is devastating

952
00:49:28,120 --> 00:49:30,120
Speaker 1: because that used to be a sort of key strength

953
00:49:30,160 --> 00:49:32,360
Speaker 1: for him, you know. As far as the ron Klayan

954
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 1: attempt to spin these numbers, which is hilarious, it reminded

955
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 1: me of remember what he said after Macron was able

956
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: to win the presidency. He tweeted then an interesting observation,

957
00:49:45,760 --> 00:49:49,160
Speaker 1: just fyi, President Macron appears to have secured a double

958
00:49:49,200 --> 00:49:51,600
Speaker 1: digit victory over La Penn at a time when his

959
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 1: approval rating is thirty six percent. HM, basically saying like,

960
00:49:56,840 --> 00:50:00,640
Speaker 1: oh see, there's a path to win the presidency, like,

961
00:50:01,160 --> 00:50:05,120
Speaker 1: you know, win re election even when your approval rating

962
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:08,560
Speaker 1: is extremely low. So clearly this is the path that

963
00:50:08,880 --> 00:50:12,520
Speaker 1: Clay and probably others around him have decided is the

964
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,439
Speaker 1: way for Biden to get back in the White House

965
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:18,120
Speaker 1: next time around. People aren't happy, They're not gonna be happy,

966
00:50:18,200 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: they're not gonna be in love with him. But can

967
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:24,439
Speaker 1: he be a superior alternative to Donald Trump where people

968
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:26,239
Speaker 1: show up to vote for him not because they really

969
00:50:26,280 --> 00:50:28,440
Speaker 1: want to, yes, but because they feel like they have

970
00:50:28,560 --> 00:50:31,319
Speaker 1: no other choice. I mean, that's a very dim view

971
00:50:31,360 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: of politics, especially this, you know, early in the presidency

972
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:37,560
Speaker 1: to already have basically given up on having a high

973
00:50:37,560 --> 00:50:40,040
Speaker 1: approval rating when he came in with a high approval rating.

974
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:42,560
Speaker 1: So it's not like it's not possible, but that clearly

975
00:50:42,600 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 1: seems to be the track that his people are focused on.

976
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: Good luck, and you know, basically only Trump running a

977
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:51,439
Speaker 1: campaign purely focused on stop the steal would be able

978
00:50:51,480 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 1: to save you if that were the case, and which,

979
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,760
Speaker 1: by the way, what they might happen. Yeah, So indeed

980
00:50:56,840 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 1: that's what we deserve. Okay, Okay, guys, you're muffs. For

981
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:01,840
Speaker 1: any kids out there, I regret to it for me.

982
00:51:01,920 --> 00:51:04,520
Speaker 1: We now have to talk about Elon Musk's dick. Let's

983
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:06,440
Speaker 1: go ahead and put the tear sheet up on the screen.

984
00:51:06,600 --> 00:51:08,880
Speaker 1: I'm just going to read a significant amount of this,

985
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,560
Speaker 1: so a space This is from business insider. I do

986
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:14,120
Speaker 1: want to say this from a reporter, Rich McHugh, who

987
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 1: is not a hack whatsoever. He was the producer who

988
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:23,239
Speaker 1: worked with Ronan Fharrooh to take down Harvey Weinstein. You

989
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:25,160
Speaker 1: know much of the sugarn of the Clinton's. He also

990
00:51:25,280 --> 00:51:29,239
Speaker 1: is a reporter who did the serious journalism investigating Tara

991
00:51:29,320 --> 00:51:32,120
Speaker 1: Reid's claims against Joe Biden. So he has a news

992
00:51:32,120 --> 00:51:37,320
Speaker 1: story about Elon Musk regarding a settlement paid by SpaceX

993
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: for some claims made by a flight attendant. So here's

994
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:44,759
Speaker 1: the headline. SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself

995
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 1: and propositioned her for sex. Documents show that the company

996
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 1: paid two hundred and fifty thousand dollars for her silence.

997
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:54,920
Speaker 1: Let me give you the details here. So this attendant

998
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:56,920
Speaker 1: worked as a member of the cabin crew on a

999
00:51:56,960 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 1: contract basis for SpaceX's corporate jet fleet. She accused Musk

1000
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,120
Speaker 1: of exposing his erect penis to her rubbing her leg

1001
00:52:04,160 --> 00:52:06,839
Speaker 1: without consent and offering to buy her a horse in

1002
00:52:06,880 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: exchange for a neurotic massage. Okay, sorry, I shouldn't laugh,

1003
00:52:12,360 --> 00:52:16,080
Speaker 1: so weird. Accarding to interviews and documents obtained by Insider,

1004
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 1: the incident, which took place in twenty sixteen, is alleged

1005
00:52:18,680 --> 00:52:22,440
Speaker 1: in a declaration signed by a friend of the attendant

1006
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:25,600
Speaker 1: and prepared in support of her claim. So this document,

1007
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,759
Speaker 1: this declaration from the friend, and the friend is the

1008
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 1: person who was the source here for Rich McHugh. This

1009
00:52:31,719 --> 00:52:35,400
Speaker 1: was as part of the mediation process by which they

1010
00:52:35,400 --> 00:52:37,960
Speaker 1: came to this two hundred and fifty thousand dollars settlement amount.

1011
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: He says. The details in the story are drawn from

1012
00:52:40,160 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 1: this declaration, as well as other documents, including email, correspondents

1013
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:46,760
Speaker 1: and other record shared with Insider by the friend. According

1014
00:52:46,800 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 1: to that declaration, the attendant confided to that friend that

1015
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,480
Speaker 1: after taking the flight attendant job, she was encouraged to

1016
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:55,040
Speaker 1: get licensed as a messeuse so that she could give

1017
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:59,279
Speaker 1: musk messages. Gross that massage is rather, it's sort of

1018
00:52:59,360 --> 00:53:02,040
Speaker 1: gross to me that she was encouraged or sort of

1019
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:04,879
Speaker 1: forced to get this massuse's license on her own dime.

1020
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:07,040
Speaker 1: By the way, it was during one such massage in

1021
00:53:07,080 --> 00:53:09,920
Speaker 1: a private cabin on musk Gulf Stream that she told

1022
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 1: the friend Musk propositioned her. The flight attendant told her friend,

1023
00:53:13,160 --> 00:53:15,400
Speaker 1: the billionaire SpaceX and Tesla founder asked her to come

1024
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:17,200
Speaker 1: to his room during a flight for a quote full

1025
00:53:17,239 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 1: body massage. When she arrived, she found that Musk was

1026
00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:22,160
Speaker 1: completely naked except for a sheet covering the lower half

1027
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:25,360
Speaker 1: of his body. During the massage, the declaration says, Musk

1028
00:53:25,520 --> 00:53:29,120
Speaker 1: quote exposed his genitals and then quote touched her and

1029
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:31,439
Speaker 1: offered to buy her a horse if she would quote

1030
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:35,400
Speaker 1: do more, referring to the performance of sex ax. Apparently

1031
00:53:35,440 --> 00:53:37,480
Speaker 1: she was into horses, so the horse thing was not

1032
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:42,200
Speaker 1: completely insane. The attendants complaint was resolved quickly after a

1033
00:53:42,200 --> 00:53:45,200
Speaker 1: session with the mediator that Musk personally attended. The matter

1034
00:53:45,320 --> 00:53:47,800
Speaker 1: never reached a court of law or an arbitration proceeding.

1035
00:53:47,800 --> 00:53:50,400
Speaker 1: In November twenty eighteen, Musk, SpaceX, and the flight attendant

1036
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,160
Speaker 1: entered into a severance agreement granting the attendant a two

1037
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,319
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty thousand dollars payment in exchange for a

1038
00:53:55,360 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 1: promise not to sue over the claim. So basically what

1039
00:53:57,800 --> 00:54:00,640
Speaker 1: happened here is she gets hired on a contra basis

1040
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 1: as a flight attendant. She says that she was pressured

1041
00:54:03,200 --> 00:54:06,040
Speaker 1: to get this massage license on her own dime so

1042
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:08,320
Speaker 1: she could give massages. Apparently I didn't know on SpaceX

1043
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,840
Speaker 1: like massages. I was gonna say. My faway from this

1044
00:54:10,920 --> 00:54:13,440
Speaker 1: thing is why does in hou why does a company

1045
00:54:13,440 --> 00:54:16,520
Speaker 1: need an in house massus. Yeah, it's a perfect executive.

1046
00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 1: That's that's a problem. Weird. Especially listen, if that's it

1047
00:54:21,200 --> 00:54:23,880
Speaker 1: is weird. Yeah, and if that is part of the job,

1048
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:27,879
Speaker 1: then you hire people who are professionally trained massuses, or

1049
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 1: if you want your attendants to get that certification, then

1050
00:54:30,840 --> 00:54:32,799
Speaker 1: you pay for it. Okay. So I have an issue

1051
00:54:32,840 --> 00:54:36,640
Speaker 1: with that, Okay. So then the you know, allegations unfold.

1052
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:40,759
Speaker 1: She was reportedly, according to the details from the front,

1053
00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 1: she's very stressed about it, but she thought, okay, we

1054
00:54:42,600 --> 00:54:43,800
Speaker 1: can just put it behind and I'm just going to

1055
00:54:43,840 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 1: pretend like nothing happens and move forward. She also alleges

1056
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,960
Speaker 1: she was basically retaliated against for not going along with

1057
00:54:50,000 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 1: the horse for sex deal. So that's what we know.

1058
00:54:52,800 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 1: The part we can say for sure is that there

1059
00:54:55,200 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 1: was this two hundred and fifty thousand dollars settlement between

1060
00:54:58,360 --> 00:55:02,320
Speaker 1: the company and this woman who is not being named

1061
00:55:02,400 --> 00:55:05,920
Speaker 1: in the piece to protect her privacy. She also, I mean,

1062
00:55:05,920 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 1: this kind of gets the free speech thing. She also

1063
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:10,840
Speaker 1: is bound by a non disclosure agreement. She's not allowed

1064
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,120
Speaker 1: to talk about it legally. Those type of non disclosure

1065
00:55:14,160 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 1: agreements in cases of sexual harassment and assault have been

1066
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:20,600
Speaker 1: banned in certain states like California, but she is still

1067
00:55:20,680 --> 00:55:22,200
Speaker 1: under one. So that's why, you know, one of the

1068
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:24,359
Speaker 1: reasons why she's not talking here. Yeah, I think that's right.

1069
00:55:24,400 --> 00:55:26,799
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I really don't know whether it's true

1070
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:29,040
Speaker 1: or not. Obviously there's no waiting rite, so this is

1071
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:32,120
Speaker 1: based on the affidavit of a friend. Also, in terms

1072
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:35,280
Speaker 1: of the payout, it was it was not actually about

1073
00:55:35,320 --> 00:55:37,480
Speaker 1: the sexual harassment claim. It was about the fact that

1074
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:39,640
Speaker 1: she was retaliated against. That's what she would file it

1075
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,440
Speaker 1: under California employment laws. So two hundred and fifty thousand dollars,

1076
00:55:43,480 --> 00:55:49,200
Speaker 1: I mean, you have retaliated against right because of sexual harassment. Right. Certainly, Again,

1077
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:51,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if it's true or not. Musk himself

1078
00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 1: appeared to know whether it was coming. So here I

1079
00:55:54,920 --> 00:55:56,480
Speaker 1: seemed to know that it was coming. Let's put this

1080
00:55:56,560 --> 00:56:00,319
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. He had tweeted previously that

1081
00:56:00,400 --> 00:56:03,000
Speaker 1: in the past, I'd voted Democrat because they were mostly

1082
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 1: the kindness party. Now they've become the party of division

1083
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:06,560
Speaker 1: and hate, so I can no longer support them. Out

1084
00:56:06,560 --> 00:56:09,800
Speaker 1: of vote Republican now watch their dirty tricks campaign against

1085
00:56:09,800 --> 00:56:12,760
Speaker 1: me unfold. And he followed up by that saying political

1086
00:56:12,800 --> 00:56:16,000
Speaker 1: attacks on me will escalate dramatically in the coming months,

1087
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,200
Speaker 1: and so he's casting this as a part of this.

1088
00:56:18,640 --> 00:56:21,839
Speaker 1: I in general have not seen this kind of take

1089
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:24,960
Speaker 1: you know, take the world by storm exactly with this story.

1090
00:56:25,160 --> 00:56:27,520
Speaker 1: You know, we also, I think the most important thing

1091
00:56:27,560 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 1: with these things is that you should also look for

1092
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:33,399
Speaker 1: others and whether there was any retaliatory actions or other

1093
00:56:33,400 --> 00:56:34,960
Speaker 1: people to come out of the wood work. So we're

1094
00:56:35,000 --> 00:56:37,160
Speaker 1: kind of in that phase, and especially if there's any

1095
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,759
Speaker 1: reporters who are working on that, that will serve as

1096
00:56:39,800 --> 00:56:43,400
Speaker 1: a very big corroboration. I will say. What they have

1097
00:56:43,520 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 1: said is that at least six women have sued Tesla

1098
00:56:47,040 --> 00:56:51,480
Speaker 1: alleging sexual harassment at a Tesla factory, but none of

1099
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:55,520
Speaker 1: the people who were there were alleged against Musk himself.

1100
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 1: So this is the only one that we know of currently.

1101
00:56:59,080 --> 00:57:02,080
Speaker 1: I did read, I've said, I've talked read must biography

1102
00:57:02,320 --> 00:57:05,400
Speaker 1: and some other pretty critical stuff into him, and in

1103
00:57:05,520 --> 00:57:08,680
Speaker 1: general I'd never seen any reporting around this. But obviously

1104
00:57:08,719 --> 00:57:12,879
Speaker 1: this was paid, so you know that's not deniable. Yeah, right, listen,

1105
00:57:12,960 --> 00:57:14,480
Speaker 1: there's no way to know what happens. I think you're

1106
00:57:14,520 --> 00:57:16,520
Speaker 1: right in terms of the public perception. If now there

1107
00:57:16,560 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 1: are more women who come out, yeah, then it's you know,

1108
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:21,959
Speaker 1: then it definitely now. I mean, listen, there can be

1109
00:57:22,040 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 1: it can be that there is only one woman that's

1110
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,000
Speaker 1: only done to one person. That doesn't mean that the

1111
00:57:26,040 --> 00:57:29,640
Speaker 1: claims are invalid or not true. And as we said,

1112
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:32,160
Speaker 1: the number. The thing we definitely know is they did

1113
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:35,360
Speaker 1: pay it, very quickly, pay a settlement to this woman

1114
00:57:35,560 --> 00:57:38,840
Speaker 1: to keep her quiet and make sure that she doesn't sue.

1115
00:57:38,880 --> 00:57:41,560
Speaker 1: So that's what we know. I do want to say

1116
00:57:41,560 --> 00:57:43,880
Speaker 1: one thing about his tweet there about like Democrats are

1117
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:45,240
Speaker 1: the Kindness Party. First of all, I think it's very

1118
00:57:45,280 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 1: childish way of viewing politics. But second of all, the

1119
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:50,360
Speaker 1: first comments he made saying that it was at that

1120
00:57:51,200 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 1: convention for the what is it called call in podcast

1121
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 1: and his first comments were mostly focused on Democrats are

1122
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:03,840
Speaker 1: too close to unions, and unions, he said, are another

1123
00:58:03,920 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 1: form of monopoly, which I don't even understand how you

1124
00:58:07,160 --> 00:58:09,200
Speaker 1: can make that case, but whatever. But it was sort

1125
00:58:09,200 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 1: of like a very it was that, and he didn't

1126
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 1: like that they were close to trial lawyers. It was

1127
00:58:14,320 --> 00:58:17,960
Speaker 1: this very just like standard issue plutocrat critique of like,

1128
00:58:18,040 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 1: I don't like that I might have to deal with

1129
00:58:20,040 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 1: the union or that I might get sued for bad behavior.

1130
00:58:23,200 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 1: And then once there was kind of an outcry about

1131
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:27,120
Speaker 1: the way he framed that, then he puts out this

1132
00:58:27,160 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 1: tweet that's much more and you know, the oh, they're

1133
00:58:29,760 --> 00:58:32,240
Speaker 1: not they're divisive, et cetera, et cetera. I will defend

1134
00:58:32,320 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 1: him on the union thing only within what happened, And

1135
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:36,680
Speaker 1: you guys know, I'm pro union and I've always supported it.

1136
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 1: That being said, I think it's bs that he got

1137
00:58:39,480 --> 00:58:42,120
Speaker 1: that there was that lobby that the union's pushed that

1138
00:58:42,160 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 1: make it so that the EV tax credits did not

1139
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:49,160
Speaker 1: apply as much to Tesla and applied more to Ford

1140
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 1: and GS. Yeah, but he also is a notorious union buster.

1141
00:58:53,760 --> 00:58:56,520
Speaker 1: I'm not like Ati Quickal like Wall Street Capital, I

1142
00:58:56,640 --> 00:58:58,680
Speaker 1: totally agree with you. Why they don't support the day

1143
00:58:58,680 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 1: they have explicitly against Tesla. And by the way, if

1144
00:59:01,640 --> 00:59:03,760
Speaker 1: the Tesla people want to unionize, I would a hundredercent support.

1145
00:59:04,000 --> 00:59:06,560
Speaker 1: But what I'm saying is that the unions have used

1146
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:09,640
Speaker 1: their political power to strike against him with the ev tax.

1147
00:59:09,720 --> 00:59:13,360
Speaker 1: But here's the other's wrong. I mean, that was ridiculous

1148
00:59:13,360 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 1: because he was like, Biden is like so close to

1149
00:59:16,520 --> 00:59:18,640
Speaker 1: the unions and does the bidding of the unions and

1150
00:59:18,720 --> 00:59:21,280
Speaker 1: so different from Barack Obama on this, which is also

1151
00:59:21,320 --> 00:59:24,200
Speaker 1: silly because we see Biden right now has the power

1152
00:59:24,240 --> 00:59:27,320
Speaker 1: to back up the Amazon labor union and isn't lifting

1153
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 1: a finger to do it. It'll have the photo op

1154
00:59:28,960 --> 00:59:31,560
Speaker 1: with them, So the analysis was silly. I agree, I'm

1155
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:34,320
Speaker 1: saying in in his mind and look, I think every

1156
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 1: person is selfish, and his context is Tesla. Tesla has

1157
00:59:37,680 --> 00:59:40,720
Speaker 1: been explicitly screwed over by the Biden demonstration. Pete Budajetg

1158
00:59:40,760 --> 00:59:43,120
Speaker 1: won't even meet with Elon Musk. Yeah, but don't you

1159
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 1: think it's telling that after he says that, then he

1160
00:59:46,080 --> 00:59:48,720
Speaker 1: switches to no. No, it's it's because they're device is

1161
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,560
Speaker 1: totally percent. But I'm just you know, I will say,

1162
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,240
Speaker 1: I think that if you're a serious person, then EV

1163
00:59:54,360 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 1: tax credits should be flat, if we should encourage evs

1164
00:59:57,120 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 1: as much as humans, and that in this in that case,

1165
01:00:00,840 --> 01:00:03,680
Speaker 1: the Union's messed up by using their political power. I

1166
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:05,960
Speaker 1: mentioned that. No, no no, I agree, But I'm saying the

1167
01:00:05,960 --> 01:00:09,080
Speaker 1: Biden people too. The fact that they're ostracizing Elon Musk,

1168
01:00:09,080 --> 01:00:11,080
Speaker 1: who has done more for this country in terms of

1169
01:00:11,080 --> 01:00:13,600
Speaker 1: the electric revolution than any other person. I think that's

1170
01:00:13,640 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 1: bs okay. But that's not even what he was talking about.

1171
01:00:16,400 --> 01:00:19,480
Speaker 1: I think that's a kind not even what he said

1172
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:21,400
Speaker 1: in his statement, though. I mean, I guess my bottom

1173
01:00:21,400 --> 01:00:25,000
Speaker 1: line here is he's acting exactly like you would expect

1174
01:00:25,200 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 1: a self interested billionaire to act, very true, especially for

1175
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:31,040
Speaker 1: his company, which I agree with, I don't agree with.

1176
01:00:31,120 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 1: Let's move on anyway, Hilary about Hillary Clinton. All right,

1177
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,920
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and talk about Hillary. So this has

1178
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: been all over the place, and there's a lot going

1179
01:00:38,880 --> 01:00:41,480
Speaker 1: on in terms of the actual finding. So the long

1180
01:00:41,520 --> 01:00:45,320
Speaker 1: awaited Durham trial, which has basically become a meme online,

1181
01:00:45,400 --> 01:00:47,560
Speaker 1: has actually been happening. So let's put this up there

1182
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:51,600
Speaker 1: on the screen. This is, according to testimony from Robbie Mook.

1183
01:00:51,720 --> 01:00:54,680
Speaker 1: You guys might remember that name. It was Hillary Clinton's

1184
01:00:54,720 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 1: campaign manager, testifying in the trial regarding Michael Sussman. Now,

1185
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:02,880
Speaker 1: what he says is that Hillary Clinton personally approved leaking

1186
01:01:02,920 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 1: to the media information alleging a connection between Donald Trump

1187
01:01:06,720 --> 01:01:10,240
Speaker 1: and a Russian bank in twenty and sixteen, which the

1188
01:01:10,320 --> 01:01:14,840
Speaker 1: campaign itself had not fully confirmed. This is the infamous

1189
01:01:15,000 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 1: Alpha Bank report that took the world by storm in

1190
01:01:18,720 --> 01:01:21,800
Speaker 1: the closing days of the twenty sixteen election, in which

1191
01:01:21,800 --> 01:01:24,840
Speaker 1: there was an allegation that there was a data between

1192
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:29,560
Speaker 1: some servers linking the Trump organization and Alpha Bank, that is,

1193
01:01:29,600 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 1: a Russian financial institution with ties to the Kremlin. That

1194
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:36,560
Speaker 1: was originally reported by Franklin four over at the Atlantic

1195
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:39,400
Speaker 1: and Enslate, where he wrote this up and was used

1196
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:42,840
Speaker 1: as a so called corroborating evidence. This is the infamous

1197
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 1: tweet that Hillary sent on that day. Let's put this

1198
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:48,160
Speaker 1: up there on the screen. October thirty one, twenty sixteen.

1199
01:01:48,400 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 1: Computer scientists have apparently uncovered a covert server linking the

1200
01:01:52,160 --> 01:01:56,600
Speaker 1: Trump organization to a Russian based bank. This was regarding

1201
01:01:56,640 --> 01:01:59,320
Speaker 1: the Franklin four report, who also worked at the Atlantic,

1202
01:01:59,360 --> 01:02:02,080
Speaker 1: but he wrote it up showing that the Trump organization

1203
01:02:02,160 --> 01:02:04,960
Speaker 1: has a quote secret server registered to Trump Tower that

1204
01:02:05,040 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 1: has been covertly communicating with Russia. Noteworthy, it was signed

1205
01:02:08,880 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 1: at that time by Hillary for America Senior policy advisor

1206
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 1: Jake Sullivan, who is the current National Security Advisor to

1207
01:02:15,320 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 1: the United States for President Biden. So obviously he remains

1208
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:23,560
Speaker 1: well ensconced in democratic politics. And I think that all

1209
01:02:23,600 --> 01:02:26,400
Speaker 1: of this matters because, first of all, I mean, I

1210
01:02:26,440 --> 01:02:28,439
Speaker 1: know it was six years ago, but I do think

1211
01:02:28,480 --> 01:02:31,840
Speaker 1: it is empirically nuts that Hillary at this point, we

1212
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:35,440
Speaker 1: know that she lied for years about whether they funded

1213
01:02:35,440 --> 01:02:38,320
Speaker 1: the Dassi, the Steele dossier, and they did. We know

1214
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:41,480
Speaker 1: that her lawyers, you know, and the Perkins Kooi law

1215
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:44,360
Speaker 1: firm and others were intimately involved in pushing a lot

1216
01:02:44,400 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 1: of this. That it basically was a democratic and by

1217
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:49,840
Speaker 1: that I mean like it was a Hillary Clinton operation

1218
01:02:50,120 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 1: that was in conjunction with the FBI, that they explicitly

1219
01:02:53,040 --> 01:02:56,200
Speaker 1: went and briefed them on all of these fake accusations,

1220
01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:59,280
Speaker 1: and really I mean Alpha Bank and others. While it

1221
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:02,760
Speaker 1: did show the most insanity of Russia Gate, this was

1222
01:03:03,040 --> 01:03:07,280
Speaker 1: a national conversation for two straight years, yeah, about Trump

1223
01:03:07,360 --> 01:03:10,840
Speaker 1: and Russia, which at the time did I think tremendous

1224
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 1: damage to this country. I mean beyond the Democratic base

1225
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:17,680
Speaker 1: gas lighting them into thinking that the election was stolen

1226
01:03:17,680 --> 01:03:20,400
Speaker 1: by Russians, which a majority of them did. Actually at

1227
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:24,800
Speaker 1: the time, you also had a complete media obsession when

1228
01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:27,600
Speaker 1: there could have been an obsession around I don't know

1229
01:03:28,040 --> 01:03:31,440
Speaker 1: literally anything else which was actually true. So, you know,

1230
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 1: it's been six years. I guess everybody also knew that

1231
01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:36,320
Speaker 1: this was a case, but it just shows you the

1232
01:03:36,400 --> 01:03:39,760
Speaker 1: Hillary's fingerprints were on this at the very, very highest level.

1233
01:03:39,800 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 1: There's a lot that's relevant here. I mean, first of all,

1234
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:44,960
Speaker 1: the fact that so much there was an intentional effort

1235
01:03:44,960 --> 01:03:46,840
Speaker 1: by the Clinton campaign to basically say, like, how do

1236
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:49,240
Speaker 1: we spin this laws so it doesn't fall on us,

1237
01:03:49,360 --> 01:03:52,360
Speaker 1: because obviously you lose to Donald Trump. Like the obvious

1238
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:55,400
Speaker 1: person of blame is you, right, you didn't campaign in

1239
01:03:55,400 --> 01:03:58,479
Speaker 1: the Midwest, You were a terrible candidate. You leaned into

1240
01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:02,520
Speaker 1: this campaign strategy of just sort of like going wherever

1241
01:04:02,600 --> 01:04:05,920
Speaker 1: Trump went, responding to his tweets and responding to his actions,

1242
01:04:06,000 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 1: rather than trying to lay out your own campaign like

1243
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:11,280
Speaker 1: you are to blame for this loss, and so to

1244
01:04:11,320 --> 01:04:13,680
Speaker 1: the extent that you know, Donald Trump was seen as

1245
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:17,200
Speaker 1: this existential threat by the Democratic base. The very obvious

1246
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:20,840
Speaker 1: person to blame would be Hillary Clintons. Instead, they've engaged

1247
01:04:20,880 --> 01:04:23,280
Speaker 1: in this very intentional campaign of subterfuge to push the

1248
01:04:23,280 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 1: blame off to all sorts of people, one of them,

1249
01:04:26,560 --> 01:04:28,760
Speaker 1: you know, one of those claims being like, oh, it's

1250
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:31,920
Speaker 1: Russia's fault basically. So this is also part of that

1251
01:04:32,000 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 1: effort for the Clintons and that whole world, which is

1252
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:39,920
Speaker 1: the entirety of establishment democratic politics, to escape any kind

1253
01:04:39,960 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 1: of scrutiny for how you could possibly lose to this

1254
01:04:42,640 --> 01:04:45,240
Speaker 1: man and put the country in this situation. So that's

1255
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:48,240
Speaker 1: number one, number two in terms of the actual details here.

1256
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 1: And this was like, this was Robbie Mook that testified.

1257
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:53,479
Speaker 1: So this was the you know, under oath on the stand, right,

1258
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 1: So I mean, this isn't like some nobody. This was

1259
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 1: the chair of the the head of the campaign. He said. Effectively,

1260
01:05:00,040 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 1: Hillary signed off on this idea that even though they

1261
01:05:02,680 --> 01:05:06,080
Speaker 1: couldn't as a campaign confirm these claims with this connection

1262
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:09,680
Speaker 1: was real that they would leak it to press outlets,

1263
01:05:09,720 --> 01:05:12,480
Speaker 1: and at that very same time Slate runs with it.

1264
01:05:12,840 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: And gives them the piece that they want, and that's

1265
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:17,440
Speaker 1: the one that they go with. New York Times also

1266
01:05:17,560 --> 01:05:20,640
Speaker 1: runs an article, but it is much more cautious and

1267
01:05:20,680 --> 01:05:24,040
Speaker 1: it includes the key piece of information that the FBI

1268
01:05:24,120 --> 01:05:28,360
Speaker 1: had already basically investigated and debunked these claims. So if

1269
01:05:28,360 --> 01:05:30,240
Speaker 1: it had just been the New York Times piece, they

1270
01:05:30,280 --> 01:05:32,680
Speaker 1: wouldn't have had much to work with. But because Slate

1271
01:05:32,720 --> 01:05:35,720
Speaker 1: went with a much more sensationalistic and much more sort

1272
01:05:35,760 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 1: of leading piece here, that left the question open. That

1273
01:05:39,560 --> 01:05:41,840
Speaker 1: was what enabled them to kind of lean into this.

1274
01:05:42,000 --> 01:05:44,560
Speaker 1: So that's extremely significant to your point about the damage

1275
01:05:44,600 --> 01:05:46,080
Speaker 1: that was done and why we're still talking about this

1276
01:05:46,120 --> 01:05:49,880
Speaker 1: so many years later. It really did change the way

1277
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:53,400
Speaker 1: that the Democratic base viewed Russia, and it changed the

1278
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:57,240
Speaker 1: way the Republican base viewed Russia. So now you have

1279
01:05:57,400 --> 01:06:02,920
Speaker 1: a situation where views have in certain instances flipped. You

1280
01:06:03,000 --> 01:06:05,360
Speaker 1: have much more room on the Republican side of the aisle,

1281
01:06:05,400 --> 01:06:09,000
Speaker 1: for example, to be to be questioning of the amount

1282
01:06:09,080 --> 01:06:11,720
Speaker 1: of military aid that is flowing to Ukraine. And of

1283
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:14,160
Speaker 1: course I've talked about how disingenuous some of these actors

1284
01:06:14,200 --> 01:06:16,960
Speaker 1: ultimately are, but the fact remains that the only no

1285
01:06:17,120 --> 01:06:20,920
Speaker 1: votes against this gigantic tens of billions of dollars in

1286
01:06:21,080 --> 01:06:24,120
Speaker 1: new aid, most of it, you know, military aid going

1287
01:06:24,120 --> 01:06:26,800
Speaker 1: to Ukraine came to the Republican side of the aisle.

1288
01:06:27,280 --> 01:06:31,200
Speaker 1: This whole episode made the Democratic base much more hawkish

1289
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 1: towards Russia. And you know, the very latest is, let's

1290
01:06:34,720 --> 01:06:36,720
Speaker 1: gohead and put this last hair sheet up on the screen.

1291
01:06:37,360 --> 01:06:40,160
Speaker 1: The very latest is the Pentagon is apparently weighing deploying

1292
01:06:40,200 --> 01:06:43,560
Speaker 1: special forces to guard the Kiev embassy. So basically, you know,

1293
01:06:43,680 --> 01:06:46,240
Speaker 1: a small number of boots on the ground in Ukraine,

1294
01:06:46,360 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 1: something that was supposed to be totally off the table.

1295
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:51,680
Speaker 1: And the reason why we've been able to so easily

1296
01:06:51,720 --> 01:06:55,400
Speaker 1: slide down the slippery slope closer and closer to direct

1297
01:06:55,400 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 1: confrontation with a nuclear armed superpower in Russia is because

1298
01:06:59,680 --> 01:07:02,040
Speaker 1: you have a democratic base that has been primed to

1299
01:07:02,080 --> 01:07:07,560
Speaker 1: see Russia as this like, all powerful, all knowing, existential

1300
01:07:07,640 --> 01:07:11,560
Speaker 1: world dominating election interfering threat, and that has made it

1301
01:07:11,640 --> 01:07:15,360
Speaker 1: a lot more difficult to have clear thinking and any

1302
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:19,360
Speaker 1: sort of like public debate and scrutiny over the administration's

1303
01:07:19,400 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 1: truly extraordinary actions with regard to Russia. Right now, Yeah,

1304
01:07:22,280 --> 01:07:24,880
Speaker 1: it's a huge thing. I mean, the impact this has

1305
01:07:24,920 --> 01:07:26,600
Speaker 1: had on our I did a rite I think I did.

1306
01:07:26,640 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 1: One of my last monologues are on Rising, was actually

1307
01:07:28,720 --> 01:07:30,560
Speaker 1: about this. It was like the real cost of Russia Gate,

1308
01:07:30,600 --> 01:07:32,400
Speaker 1: and it was about how I think it was at

1309
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:35,360
Speaker 1: the time. It was the Atlantic Council, and there was

1310
01:07:35,440 --> 01:07:40,320
Speaker 1: this like democratic aligned people who were, you know, promoting

1311
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:43,400
Speaker 1: a realist foreign policy view which I mostly subscribed to,

1312
01:07:43,440 --> 01:07:46,240
Speaker 1: were basically railroad and forced out of the Institute. And

1313
01:07:46,280 --> 01:07:48,560
Speaker 1: there was like an uproar over there just because I

1314
01:07:48,640 --> 01:07:50,560
Speaker 1: remember that. I don't even remember exactly what they said,

1315
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:53,160
Speaker 1: but they were like, hey, maybe expanding NATO might have

1316
01:07:53,240 --> 01:07:56,560
Speaker 1: increased tension with It was like something completely anatim and

1317
01:07:56,600 --> 01:07:59,880
Speaker 1: then boom, it was just went completely against them. So

1318
01:08:00,280 --> 01:08:03,640
Speaker 1: that was at an institutional level, at a democratic based level,

1319
01:08:03,800 --> 01:08:06,240
Speaker 1: and on a policy level. It changed our posture to

1320
01:08:06,280 --> 01:08:09,480
Speaker 1: Russia forever, I think, towards that nation. And all you

1321
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:13,480
Speaker 1: have to do is compare how Barack Obama compare reacted

1322
01:08:13,520 --> 01:08:16,519
Speaker 1: to the Russian annexation of Crimea to how the Biden

1323
01:08:16,560 --> 01:08:19,559
Speaker 1: administration has approached it now. And you can go back

1324
01:08:19,600 --> 01:08:22,840
Speaker 1: and read quotes of Obama saying things which would you know,

1325
01:08:22,920 --> 01:08:25,080
Speaker 1: call him a trader now where he says things like

1326
01:08:25,439 --> 01:08:28,519
Speaker 1: crimea is a core Russian national security interest. If you

1327
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:30,320
Speaker 1: think we should go to war for that, you suld

1328
01:08:30,400 --> 01:08:32,840
Speaker 1: justify it, because I don't think that that's one as

1329
01:08:32,840 --> 01:08:35,120
Speaker 1: core to Ukraine. It's like, wow, you know, that's something

1330
01:08:35,160 --> 01:08:38,760
Speaker 1: I haven't heard anybody in national politics espouse that type

1331
01:08:38,760 --> 01:08:40,720
Speaker 1: of sentiment. What was this line to Romney like the

1332
01:08:40,760 --> 01:08:43,720
Speaker 1: eighties called yeah, the eighties called he was right, you

1333
01:08:43,760 --> 01:08:46,519
Speaker 1: know about in terms of moving towards the Asia Pacific

1334
01:08:46,560 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 1: and how that was the future. But all of that

1335
01:08:49,120 --> 01:08:53,599
Speaker 1: worldview has been completely cast out the window, all because

1336
01:08:53,960 --> 01:08:56,360
Speaker 1: of Russia. And you can go and look back at

1337
01:08:56,680 --> 01:08:59,559
Speaker 1: you know, Obama Gate, which I'm reliving now in my head,

1338
01:09:00,120 --> 01:09:04,880
Speaker 1: and it all is a direct result of the fact

1339
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:07,559
Speaker 1: that the Clinton campaign and actually did also push the

1340
01:09:07,640 --> 01:09:09,960
Speaker 1: FBI and even the high levels of the Obama administration

1341
01:09:10,320 --> 01:09:13,320
Speaker 1: to all try and conjure up this narrative which simply

1342
01:09:13,360 --> 01:09:16,640
Speaker 1: did not exist and not only hampered the incoming administration

1343
01:09:16,960 --> 01:09:20,160
Speaker 1: but changed our politics probably forever. And that was not

1344
01:09:20,280 --> 01:09:26,080
Speaker 1: done in a good way. Crystal, what are you taking

1345
01:09:26,080 --> 01:09:30,080
Speaker 1: a look at? Well, guys, why don't Democrats keep the

1346
01:09:30,120 --> 01:09:32,960
Speaker 1: basic promises they make during their campaigns. Why did they

1347
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:36,120
Speaker 1: so rarely stand up to corporate power. Why did they,

1348
01:09:36,160 --> 01:09:39,080
Speaker 1: for example, a ban prescription drug pricing reform, let alone

1349
01:09:39,120 --> 01:09:41,960
Speaker 1: broader healthcare reform. Why did they give up on politically

1350
01:09:42,040 --> 01:09:45,240
Speaker 1: popular populist issues like hiking the minimum wage. Why did

1351
01:09:45,280 --> 01:09:48,000
Speaker 1: they fail to curb union busting by using the power

1352
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,719
Speaker 1: of the federal government to deny taxpayer dollars to labor

1353
01:09:50,800 --> 01:09:54,680
Speaker 1: law violators. We've explored a lot of typical explanations, and

1354
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:56,600
Speaker 1: all of those certainly play a part. You've got the

1355
01:09:56,640 --> 01:09:59,920
Speaker 1: coziness between the nation's financial and political elite, the epidemic

1356
01:10:00,160 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 1: big money in our political system, the corporate revolving door

1357
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:05,160
Speaker 1: that keeps White House officials wanting to protect their means

1358
01:10:05,160 --> 01:10:07,000
Speaker 1: of cashing in after they're finished with their time in

1359
01:10:07,040 --> 01:10:09,920
Speaker 1: quote unquote public service. Can think of Ja Carney there

1360
01:10:09,920 --> 01:10:12,679
Speaker 1: going from White House Press secretary for Obama to Amazon

1361
01:10:12,720 --> 01:10:16,960
Speaker 1: executives mirroring black workers. But one influential corner of democratic

1362
01:10:17,000 --> 01:10:20,680
Speaker 1: politics has often escaped scrutiny. It is more influential than

1363
01:10:20,720 --> 01:10:24,679
Speaker 1: you might realize, and it is absolutely rotten to the core.

1364
01:10:25,080 --> 01:10:29,200
Speaker 1: That is the dirty world of Democratic Party political consultants.

1365
01:10:29,600 --> 01:10:33,120
Speaker 1: The tawdry and destructive relationship between these firms and the

1366
01:10:33,160 --> 01:10:36,599
Speaker 1: Democratic politicians they advise has burst into the open recently

1367
01:10:36,640 --> 01:10:40,040
Speaker 1: with revelations that a top firm, Global Strategy Group, or GSG,

1368
01:10:40,600 --> 01:10:45,519
Speaker 1: was deeply involved in Amazon's unsuccessful Staten Island union busting campaign.

1369
01:10:45,840 --> 01:10:48,400
Speaker 1: According to a new deep dive from The American Prospect,

1370
01:10:48,600 --> 01:10:52,760
Speaker 1: GSG was truly spearheading that union busting strategy. As part

1371
01:10:52,760 --> 01:10:56,640
Speaker 1: of that campaign, quote, the democratic aligned operatives at GSG

1372
01:10:57,040 --> 01:11:01,120
Speaker 1: monitored union leaders social media accounts, created and distributed anti

1373
01:11:01,200 --> 01:11:05,920
Speaker 1: union public relations materials, and bombarded workers with flyers and communications.

1374
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:11,439
Speaker 1: They also organized and participated in mandatory anti union meetings

1375
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:14,800
Speaker 1: that were billed as trainings. Now, GSG is not some

1376
01:11:14,920 --> 01:11:17,759
Speaker 1: rogue or fringe democratic firm. It is as deeply enmeshed

1377
01:11:17,760 --> 01:11:20,599
Speaker 1: in the democratic establishment of lead as any firm possibly

1378
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:23,200
Speaker 1: could be. They worked with politicians from Joe Mansion to

1379
01:11:23,400 --> 01:11:26,880
Speaker 1: Ed Marqui to Kirsten Gillibrand they both famous alums like

1380
01:11:26,920 --> 01:11:31,000
Speaker 1: White House press secretary and new MSNBC personality Jensaki, who

1381
01:11:31,080 --> 01:11:33,600
Speaker 1: served as senior vice president of their DC office for

1382
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:38,519
Speaker 1: a time. Disgustingly, they both helped former Governor Cuomo craft

1383
01:11:38,560 --> 01:11:40,759
Speaker 1: his I'm not a krook, I'm just an Italian defense

1384
01:11:40,880 --> 01:11:45,560
Speaker 1: for repeated sexual harassment, and also advised the Times Up organization,

1385
01:11:45,600 --> 01:11:48,080
Speaker 1: which was supposed to be holding powerful men to account

1386
01:11:48,080 --> 01:11:51,000
Speaker 1: for sexual harassment. Of course, the Times Up organization itself

1387
01:11:51,040 --> 01:11:53,320
Speaker 1: got caught in bed with Cuomo and famously ignored a

1388
01:11:53,360 --> 01:11:55,960
Speaker 1: credible report from Tara Reed a sexual assault because the

1389
01:11:55,960 --> 01:11:59,599
Speaker 1: accusation was against Joe Biden during his campaign. But I digress.

1390
01:12:00,000 --> 01:12:03,679
Speaker 1: According to reporting from The Intercept, gsg's gross corporate clients

1391
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:07,080
Speaker 1: do not stop at Amazon, not even close. They've worked

1392
01:12:07,080 --> 01:12:10,080
Speaker 1: with any number of Silicon Valley monopolists, from Meta to

1393
01:12:10,120 --> 01:12:12,719
Speaker 1: Microsoft to Google. They have not been shy about oil

1394
01:12:12,760 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 1: and gas money either, doing work for chest Peak Energy Corp.

1395
01:12:15,560 --> 01:12:18,400
Speaker 1: And Luke Oil, one of the top companies in Russia.

1396
01:12:18,640 --> 01:12:20,679
Speaker 1: They've worked for the ghouls on Wall Street at places

1397
01:12:20,720 --> 01:12:23,559
Speaker 1: like Goldman Sachs, City Group and JP Morgan Chase. They've

1398
01:12:23,560 --> 01:12:26,080
Speaker 1: cozied up to the criminals of big pharma, including Pfizer,

1399
01:12:26,120 --> 01:12:29,320
Speaker 1: glaxosmith Klein, and one of the greatest villains of the century,

1400
01:12:29,520 --> 01:12:33,639
Speaker 1: Purdue Pharma, which knowingly sparked the opioid addiction crisis. Now,

1401
01:12:33,720 --> 01:12:36,400
Speaker 1: this is far from an exhaustive list, and no one

1402
01:12:36,439 --> 01:12:40,880
Speaker 1: in DC blinked an I at any of it until now,

1403
01:12:41,080 --> 01:12:44,320
Speaker 1: when the public, which is overwhelmingly supportive of the Amazon workers,

1404
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:48,599
Speaker 1: became aware of the supposedly liberal firms, dirty union busting

1405
01:12:48,640 --> 01:12:52,760
Speaker 1: deeds and corporate pr campaigns. Now, according to Politico, the

1406
01:12:52,840 --> 01:12:56,679
Speaker 1: DNC is considering banning its political consultants from this type

1407
01:12:56,720 --> 01:13:00,000
Speaker 1: of work. Unions drafted a contracted duendum that would work

1408
01:13:00,000 --> 01:13:03,080
Speaker 1: acquire firms to certify they are not helping with union busting,

1409
01:13:03,200 --> 01:13:05,920
Speaker 1: are not helping companies in labor disputes, and are not

1410
01:13:06,040 --> 01:13:08,519
Speaker 1: advising on the other side of ballot initiatives that the

1411
01:13:08,600 --> 01:13:12,120
Speaker 1: labor movement opposes. Now, that last part about ballad initiatives

1412
01:13:12,160 --> 01:13:15,559
Speaker 1: would also hit GSG where it hurts, since that company

1413
01:13:15,560 --> 01:13:18,519
Speaker 1: also works for both Uber and Lyft, who are attempting

1414
01:13:18,520 --> 01:13:21,559
Speaker 1: to kill grassroots efforts to properly classify their drivers as

1415
01:13:21,640 --> 01:13:26,320
Speaker 1: employees rather than contractors. While this reform from the DNC

1416
01:13:26,560 --> 01:13:29,439
Speaker 1: led by unions would be a start, a glance at

1417
01:13:29,439 --> 01:13:31,920
Speaker 1: gsg's client list proves that they would still be free

1418
01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:35,040
Speaker 1: to service paid corporate mercenaries for all sorts of corporate

1419
01:13:35,080 --> 01:13:37,520
Speaker 1: interests who are at least in theory opposed to Democratic

1420
01:13:37,520 --> 01:13:41,320
Speaker 1: Party priorities. What's more, it's almost unfair to pick on

1421
01:13:41,400 --> 01:13:44,639
Speaker 1: GSG here, as they are really just following standard operating

1422
01:13:44,680 --> 01:13:48,080
Speaker 1: procedure for big money DC grift. You would be hard

1423
01:13:48,120 --> 01:13:51,120
Speaker 1: pressed to find a DNC consultancy that was not in

1424
01:13:51,160 --> 01:13:54,080
Speaker 1: bed with many of these same interests. Ryan Grimm and

1425
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:56,760
Speaker 1: Rachel Cohen did a deep dive last year on this

1426
01:13:56,920 --> 01:13:59,719
Speaker 1: disgusting swamp that exists to sell out the American people.

1427
01:14:00,160 --> 01:14:03,799
Speaker 1: GSG is in very good company here. Joe Biden's campaign manager,

1428
01:14:03,840 --> 01:14:07,240
Speaker 1: General Melly Dyllon. She co founded Precision Strategies, which works

1429
01:14:07,280 --> 01:14:11,160
Speaker 1: for health insurers, Big Tech, and Wall Street Dewey Square Group,

1430
01:14:11,200 --> 01:14:14,360
Speaker 1: home of famed Clinton World Aid Minyon War. They work

1431
01:14:14,400 --> 01:14:18,360
Speaker 1: for Democrats and also corporate clients, including undermining Ohio's renewable

1432
01:14:18,439 --> 01:14:23,519
Speaker 1: energy portfolio standards. Another DC giant, SKDK, routinely takes on

1433
01:14:23,640 --> 01:14:26,320
Speaker 1: corporate work from clients like Gillette in American airlines, as

1434
01:14:26,360 --> 01:14:30,360
Speaker 1: well as helping Trans Canada push their Keystone XL pipeline.

1435
01:14:30,720 --> 01:14:34,320
Speaker 1: The d Triple c's top pollster Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner or GQR,

1436
01:14:34,439 --> 01:14:37,719
Speaker 1: they've worked with such a nefarious actress Azman Santo, Blue Cross,

1437
01:14:37,760 --> 01:14:41,879
Speaker 1: Blue Shield, and the Business Roundtable. You could also spend

1438
01:14:41,920 --> 01:14:46,760
Speaker 1: months mapping the tangled and incestuous relationships between these consultancies,

1439
01:14:47,080 --> 01:14:50,080
Speaker 1: the corporate world and the Democratic Party clients they represent.

1440
01:14:50,360 --> 01:14:53,920
Speaker 1: This is one example at GQR. One of their top partners,

1441
01:14:54,000 --> 01:14:57,120
Speaker 1: Elizabeth Sina, is married to the former executive director of

1442
01:14:57,160 --> 01:15:01,320
Speaker 1: the d Triple C, the Democratic Congressional campaign commits Dan Sina.

1443
01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:04,799
Speaker 1: Do you think husband is going to steer congressional campaigns

1444
01:15:04,840 --> 01:15:08,639
Speaker 1: towards an adversary relationship with corporate America when his wife's

1445
01:15:08,640 --> 01:15:11,519
Speaker 1: paycheck literally depends on the large ass of the nation's

1446
01:15:11,560 --> 01:15:16,880
Speaker 1: economic royalists. Probably not. Also understand there are massive amounts

1447
01:15:16,920 --> 01:15:19,400
Speaker 1: of money at stake here. This is a multi billion

1448
01:15:19,479 --> 01:15:22,320
Speaker 1: dollar industry and the top partners at these firms are

1449
01:15:22,400 --> 01:15:26,360
Speaker 1: millionaires made rich by what is literally a cartel run

1450
01:15:26,400 --> 01:15:30,040
Speaker 1: by the current Democratic Party establishment. The reason they will

1451
01:15:30,040 --> 01:15:32,600
Speaker 1: fight so hard and pull every dirty trick in the

1452
01:15:32,640 --> 01:15:35,240
Speaker 1: playbook to destroy people like Burdon Sanders or Nina Turner

1453
01:15:35,560 --> 01:15:38,240
Speaker 1: is because a new regime means the destruction of their

1454
01:15:38,280 --> 01:15:41,559
Speaker 1: cycle of extreme grift. I mean, it is not like

1455
01:15:41,600 --> 01:15:44,479
Speaker 1: these people are even good at their mercenary jobs. They

1456
01:15:44,479 --> 01:15:47,880
Speaker 1: are perennial failures who come up with terms like trumped

1457
01:15:47,920 --> 01:15:50,559
Speaker 1: up trickle down and manage to lose union busting campaigns

1458
01:15:50,560 --> 01:15:53,920
Speaker 1: for Amazon even when the odds are massively in their favor.

1459
01:15:54,320 --> 01:15:57,240
Speaker 1: They keep hold on power through a rigged marketplace, and

1460
01:15:57,400 --> 01:16:00,760
Speaker 1: any change in regime means they're sorry losing out of

1461
01:16:00,800 --> 01:16:04,599
Speaker 1: touchways would be significantly curtailed. That's why famously the d

1462
01:16:04,680 --> 01:16:08,040
Speaker 1: Triple C blacklisted all firms that work with left candidates

1463
01:16:08,080 --> 01:16:12,080
Speaker 1: looking to ouse corrupt Democratic incumbents while happily maintaining their

1464
01:16:12,080 --> 01:16:15,680
Speaker 1: contracts with union busters and corporate crooks. The left candidates

1465
01:16:15,760 --> 01:16:18,840
Speaker 1: have at least the potential to upend their monopolistic hold

1466
01:16:18,920 --> 01:16:22,880
Speaker 1: on the Democratic Party per strengths now listen. In an

1467
01:16:22,920 --> 01:16:25,760
Speaker 1: ideal world, these firms would be the brains and the

1468
01:16:25,880 --> 01:16:29,280
Speaker 1: muscle behind the movement to curb corporate power, providing advice

1469
01:16:29,360 --> 01:16:32,320
Speaker 1: to candidates, electeds, advocacy groups, and unions to help them

1470
01:16:32,360 --> 01:16:35,800
Speaker 1: design everything from messaging to legislation to tools for mobilization.

1471
01:16:36,400 --> 01:16:39,960
Speaker 1: These are the people who are driving strategy on every

1472
01:16:40,000 --> 01:16:43,000
Speaker 1: campaign call, who are conducting the polling that politicians lean

1473
01:16:43,080 --> 01:16:45,520
Speaker 1: on so much in the absence of having actual principles.

1474
01:16:45,720 --> 01:16:49,160
Speaker 1: These are the people whose staff elite Democratic Party apparatus,

1475
01:16:49,240 --> 01:16:52,040
Speaker 1: the D tripleC, the DNC, the d SEC. They are

1476
01:16:52,080 --> 01:16:56,400
Speaker 1: also the people who serve in democratic administrations. When Democrats

1477
01:16:56,400 --> 01:17:00,599
Speaker 1: are in power, this consultant class is also in power,

1478
01:17:00,840 --> 01:17:04,400
Speaker 1: and they are not just conflicted, they are completely sold out.

1479
01:17:04,680 --> 01:17:08,240
Speaker 1: The results we get then are entirely predictable. And listen,

1480
01:17:08,600 --> 01:17:10,720
Speaker 1: Trump was a liar and he was a failure, but

1481
01:17:10,800 --> 01:17:13,560
Speaker 1: he was right in this assessment. Nothing will change in

1482
01:17:13,640 --> 01:17:18,000
Speaker 1: DC until we drain the swamp. And this little insight

1483
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:20,920
Speaker 1: with gesg into their union busting campaign has really opened

1484
01:17:21,000 --> 01:17:22,560
Speaker 1: up a whole cort canor. And if you want to

1485
01:17:22,560 --> 01:17:25,919
Speaker 1: hear my reaction to Crystal's monologue, become a premium subscriber

1486
01:17:25,960 --> 01:17:31,280
Speaker 1: today at Breakingpoints dot com. All right, Zager, what are

1487
01:17:31,280 --> 01:17:33,640
Speaker 1: you looking at? Well? Everyone, I know it's time to

1488
01:17:33,680 --> 01:17:35,680
Speaker 1: talk about gas again, and I also know I've been

1489
01:17:35,720 --> 01:17:38,200
Speaker 1: beating this one to death, but I just cannot fathom

1490
01:17:38,360 --> 01:17:42,360
Speaker 1: how normalized it has become to pay astronomically high gas

1491
01:17:42,400 --> 01:17:45,880
Speaker 1: prices across the country with no attention from the media

1492
01:17:46,080 --> 01:17:50,280
Speaker 1: or the administration, day after day after day, retail gas

1493
01:17:50,280 --> 01:17:52,880
Speaker 1: prices hit the all time high. When I was writing this,

1494
01:17:53,040 --> 01:17:55,560
Speaker 1: the national average of price gas was four dollars and

1495
01:17:55,600 --> 01:17:58,080
Speaker 1: fifty nine cents a gallon, with the Western United States

1496
01:17:58,160 --> 01:18:01,880
Speaker 1: getting especially hammered. The California gas is an average price

1497
01:18:02,000 --> 01:18:05,120
Speaker 1: of six dollars a gallon, with prices over five dollars

1498
01:18:05,160 --> 01:18:09,639
Speaker 1: in Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Alaska, and Hawaii. We are talking

1499
01:18:09,800 --> 01:18:13,280
Speaker 1: about tens of millions of Americans here who are getting

1500
01:18:13,280 --> 01:18:17,080
Speaker 1: hosed day after day after day. And the more data

1501
01:18:17,080 --> 01:18:20,400
Speaker 1: that rolls in, the more devastating effect that just the

1502
01:18:20,479 --> 01:18:23,920
Speaker 1: price of gas is having on the pocketbook is seen.

1503
01:18:24,160 --> 01:18:27,640
Speaker 1: The current price is destroying household balance sheets. With the

1504
01:18:27,680 --> 01:18:31,439
Speaker 1: typical household in the United States spending forty eight hundred

1505
01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:34,800
Speaker 1: dollars a year on gas at the annualized rate, that

1506
01:18:35,000 --> 01:18:39,040
Speaker 1: is seventy percent more than just one year ago when

1507
01:18:39,080 --> 01:18:41,720
Speaker 1: they were spending twenty eight hundred dollars. So if you

1508
01:18:41,800 --> 01:18:45,040
Speaker 1: do the math, that means that the gas increase alone

1509
01:18:45,280 --> 01:18:48,720
Speaker 1: took your stimulus check of twenty twenty one just gas,

1510
01:18:48,720 --> 01:18:53,800
Speaker 1: not to mention food, other travel costs, rent, healthcare, other

1511
01:18:53,840 --> 01:18:57,040
Speaker 1: fixed monthly expenditures. All of which are also increasing. That's

1512
01:18:57,080 --> 01:19:00,280
Speaker 1: insane and there's genuinely no end insight here. If you

1513
01:19:00,360 --> 01:19:05,120
Speaker 1: factor in everything, household savings today are nine thousand dollars

1514
01:19:05,240 --> 01:19:08,679
Speaker 1: less than just last year. That does not equal any

1515
01:19:08,720 --> 01:19:11,680
Speaker 1: amount of public support that you have received and constitutes

1516
01:19:11,800 --> 01:19:14,840
Speaker 1: a massive tax on your family. Here's the sad part.

1517
01:19:15,040 --> 01:19:17,880
Speaker 1: It is almost certainly going to get worse. Right now.

1518
01:19:18,000 --> 01:19:21,559
Speaker 1: JP Morgan is predicting that the entire United States will

1519
01:19:21,600 --> 01:19:24,040
Speaker 1: have a six dollars and twenty cent average of gas

1520
01:19:24,120 --> 01:19:26,960
Speaker 1: this summer, when the driving season really kicks off, with

1521
01:19:27,040 --> 01:19:30,320
Speaker 1: a combination of factors that actually are very much under

1522
01:19:30,439 --> 01:19:34,360
Speaker 1: our control. First and foremost is obviously demand, but of

1523
01:19:34,360 --> 01:19:37,599
Speaker 1: course the supply question should also be asked. Right now,

1524
01:19:37,800 --> 01:19:40,880
Speaker 1: gas inventory is at the lowest seasonal level since twenty

1525
01:19:40,960 --> 01:19:43,760
Speaker 1: nineteen and dropping. The reason for the drawdown is that

1526
01:19:43,800 --> 01:19:47,040
Speaker 1: we are currently exporting a large chunk of our gas

1527
01:19:47,280 --> 01:19:50,559
Speaker 1: to Mexico and Latin America due to their sky high

1528
01:19:50,600 --> 01:19:53,240
Speaker 1: demand which is across the world and as a result

1529
01:19:53,280 --> 01:19:55,400
Speaker 1: of the supply crunch which was induced by the Russian

1530
01:19:55,400 --> 01:19:59,559
Speaker 1: invasion of Ukraine. Low supply, high demand, exporting whatever stocks

1531
01:19:59,560 --> 01:20:02,000
Speaker 1: you got laine around. That's how you get six dollars

1532
01:20:02,040 --> 01:20:04,960
Speaker 1: a gallon across the entire country, which means like seven

1533
01:20:04,960 --> 01:20:07,800
Speaker 1: point fifty a gallon in California. So I just spent

1534
01:20:07,840 --> 01:20:10,360
Speaker 1: the last few days talking to as many experts as

1535
01:20:10,439 --> 01:20:13,000
Speaker 1: I could. What can you try to do that? The

1536
01:20:13,000 --> 01:20:16,040
Speaker 1: Biden administration apparently is refusing to do. What the hell

1537
01:20:16,080 --> 01:20:18,519
Speaker 1: can we actually do in the immediate term to actually

1538
01:20:18,560 --> 01:20:21,160
Speaker 1: lower the price of gas? Here's what I discovered. Number

1539
01:20:21,240 --> 01:20:24,599
Speaker 1: one actually seems relatively obvious. The Biden administration can look

1540
01:20:24,680 --> 01:20:28,280
Speaker 1: at why exactly we are exporting all of this gas abroad.

1541
01:20:28,439 --> 01:20:30,840
Speaker 1: The obvious answer as to why the oil companies are

1542
01:20:30,880 --> 01:20:33,599
Speaker 1: doing it is because they make money. Why should they

1543
01:20:33,640 --> 01:20:36,200
Speaker 1: not print money when it's our gas that we've pumped

1544
01:20:36,200 --> 01:20:39,240
Speaker 1: out of our soil and is driving up our consumer

1545
01:20:39,280 --> 01:20:42,320
Speaker 1: prices for us. Some experts I spoke to disputed that

1546
01:20:42,360 --> 01:20:45,160
Speaker 1: banning exports would alleviate the price all that much. But

1547
01:20:45,240 --> 01:20:47,840
Speaker 1: last time I checked, supply and demand is the most

1548
01:20:47,920 --> 01:20:52,080
Speaker 1: iron quad law of economics. Increasing the supply of gas

1549
01:20:52,120 --> 01:20:55,120
Speaker 1: available to American consumers is actually an easy thing the

1550
01:20:55,120 --> 01:20:58,360
Speaker 1: administration can do under its authority in the nineteen seventy

1551
01:20:58,400 --> 01:21:02,280
Speaker 1: five Energy Policy and Conservation Act, second, the administration should

1552
01:21:02,320 --> 01:21:06,360
Speaker 1: probably consider temporarily suspending the Jones Act for crude oil.

1553
01:21:06,600 --> 01:21:09,240
Speaker 1: Let me explain. The Jones Act is a nineteen twenty

1554
01:21:09,240 --> 01:21:12,479
Speaker 1: one piece of legislation. It mandates that all goods shipped

1555
01:21:12,479 --> 01:21:16,120
Speaker 1: between US ports must be on ships built in the

1556
01:21:16,200 --> 01:21:19,240
Speaker 1: United States and US flagged. Given that our ships are

1557
01:21:19,240 --> 01:21:21,240
Speaker 1: a lot more expensive to build and run than the

1558
01:21:21,240 --> 01:21:24,679
Speaker 1: rest of of the world, this obviously creates a supply crunch. Now,

1559
01:21:24,800 --> 01:21:27,320
Speaker 1: I support the ethos behind the Act because it's to

1560
01:21:27,320 --> 01:21:30,960
Speaker 1: protect the American shipping industry, especially from undercutters in Asia.

1561
01:21:31,200 --> 01:21:34,920
Speaker 1: But look, desperate times call for desperate measures. Right now,

1562
01:21:35,000 --> 01:21:37,519
Speaker 1: there is a major disparity in the price of gas

1563
01:21:37,520 --> 01:21:41,800
Speaker 1: and diesel regionally across the country because only US flagships

1564
01:21:41,800 --> 01:21:44,840
Speaker 1: can move petroleum products between regions like New York Harbor

1565
01:21:45,000 --> 01:21:48,000
Speaker 1: and the Port of Houston. Temporarily suspending the Jones Act

1566
01:21:48,160 --> 01:21:51,920
Speaker 1: ford crude oil would allow foreign tankers already here to

1567
01:21:52,040 --> 01:21:55,040
Speaker 1: transport crude in between the US ports, which would at

1568
01:21:55,160 --> 01:21:59,240
Speaker 1: least alleviate the short term price differential in the crazy

1569
01:21:59,280 --> 01:22:01,800
Speaker 1: prices that we see on diesel on the East Coast

1570
01:22:02,000 --> 01:22:04,519
Speaker 1: and also gas prices on the West Coast. So we

1571
01:22:04,560 --> 01:22:07,320
Speaker 1: would all at least beat it together. Finally, in the

1572
01:22:07,360 --> 01:22:10,040
Speaker 1: median term, we need some resilience. I think a lot

1573
01:22:10,080 --> 01:22:12,280
Speaker 1: of establishment Democrats need to suck it up and they

1574
01:22:12,320 --> 01:22:14,240
Speaker 1: need to admit we are going to be using fossil

1575
01:22:14,240 --> 01:22:16,360
Speaker 1: fuels for a long time to come. You can hate

1576
01:22:16,360 --> 01:22:18,840
Speaker 1: it and you can want a transition, which I certainly do,

1577
01:22:19,040 --> 01:22:21,160
Speaker 1: but no matter which way you slice it, we're using

1578
01:22:21,160 --> 01:22:23,120
Speaker 1: gas for at least the next three to four decades.

1579
01:22:23,280 --> 01:22:25,559
Speaker 1: Even if you do have an electric revolution, you can

1580
01:22:25,600 --> 01:22:27,960
Speaker 1: accept it and make life easier for people, or you

1581
01:22:27,960 --> 01:22:30,519
Speaker 1: can ignore reality and push a dream which will not

1582
01:22:30,560 --> 01:22:33,160
Speaker 1: come to fruition for years while people pay heavily for

1583
01:22:33,200 --> 01:22:35,439
Speaker 1: your mistakes. And that's where we are right now. That

1584
01:22:35,560 --> 01:22:37,679
Speaker 1: is where we are today. One of the biggest choke

1585
01:22:37,720 --> 01:22:40,240
Speaker 1: points in our ability to deliver gas to our consumers

1586
01:22:40,400 --> 01:22:43,400
Speaker 1: is refining capacity. I've spoken before how one of the

1587
01:22:43,400 --> 01:22:46,200
Speaker 1: biggest refineries in the country burned down in the East

1588
01:22:46,240 --> 01:22:49,400
Speaker 1: Coast in twenty nineteen, and I asked, why hasn't anyone

1589
01:22:49,439 --> 01:22:52,480
Speaker 1: rebuilt it. Well, it turns out it's not just that one.

1590
01:22:52,560 --> 01:22:54,960
Speaker 1: We have not built a new refinery in this country

1591
01:22:55,080 --> 01:22:58,760
Speaker 1: since nineteen seventy seven. Forty some years ago, and it's

1592
01:22:58,800 --> 01:23:02,400
Speaker 1: because we made this. We don't want to accept the

1593
01:23:02,560 --> 01:23:07,519
Speaker 1: environmental impact of refining oil on our shores, so we

1594
01:23:07,640 --> 01:23:12,240
Speaker 1: just import it from abroad. Who cares if Russia, Asia, China,

1595
01:23:12,479 --> 01:23:16,200
Speaker 1: India and others pump disgusting byproducts, as long as it's

1596
01:23:16,280 --> 01:23:20,120
Speaker 1: not on our soil, Well, that's fine until you're in

1597
01:23:20,160 --> 01:23:23,959
Speaker 1: a global supply crunch and it turns out you literally

1598
01:23:24,000 --> 01:23:28,080
Speaker 1: cannot refine enough oil or diesel for your population. That's

1599
01:23:28,120 --> 01:23:31,559
Speaker 1: what actual environmental racism looks like. C seing AOC and

1600
01:23:31,600 --> 01:23:34,040
Speaker 1: the rest of the identity obsessed liberals. But it is

1601
01:23:34,080 --> 01:23:36,880
Speaker 1: the de facto effect of what the policy they are

1602
01:23:36,920 --> 01:23:40,719
Speaker 1: pushing is. We need some new refineries in this country,

1603
01:23:40,920 --> 01:23:44,479
Speaker 1: and actually building them here allows us to phase away

1604
01:23:44,520 --> 01:23:49,639
Speaker 1: from them when we desire. Globalization has and is wreaking

1605
01:23:49,720 --> 01:23:52,719
Speaker 1: havoc on the ability of Americans to fulfill the promise

1606
01:23:52,760 --> 01:23:56,120
Speaker 1: of manifest destiny, which is to move around freely on

1607
01:23:56,160 --> 01:23:59,240
Speaker 1: our beautiful and stunning continent. It is our birthright and

1608
01:23:59,320 --> 01:24:03,040
Speaker 1: our legacy. The more the price of gas skyrockets, the

1609
01:24:03,040 --> 01:24:06,360
Speaker 1: more life is ruined slowly for our citizens who have

1610
01:24:06,400 --> 01:24:08,880
Speaker 1: to make choices on where to cut back and when

1611
01:24:08,920 --> 01:24:11,200
Speaker 1: they should not have to do so. Each of the

1612
01:24:11,200 --> 01:24:13,479
Speaker 1: things that I've outlined here are ones that, in the

1613
01:24:13,520 --> 01:24:16,760
Speaker 1: short term are actually pretty bipartisan, and yet I have

1614
01:24:16,920 --> 01:24:20,200
Speaker 1: not seen any person in the administration consider it even

1615
01:24:20,200 --> 01:24:22,799
Speaker 1: one time. And if you want to know Biden's greatest failure,

1616
01:24:22,920 --> 01:24:27,320
Speaker 1: this shows what it is no imagination to solve our problems. Instead,

1617
01:24:27,560 --> 01:24:29,920
Speaker 1: we are at the whims of the status quo, which

1618
01:24:29,920 --> 01:24:32,680
Speaker 1: mean higher prices for all. And I think, Crystal, I mean,

1619
01:24:32,720 --> 01:24:34,439
Speaker 1: you know, look at the jonesach thing you and I support.

1620
01:24:34,640 --> 01:24:37,480
Speaker 1: And if you want to hear my reaction to Sager's monologue,

1621
01:24:37,520 --> 01:24:43,760
Speaker 1: become a premium subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot com. We

1622
01:24:43,840 --> 01:24:46,120
Speaker 1: got a great guest here, Elbridge. Kolby's a principal at

1623
01:24:46,120 --> 01:24:48,360
Speaker 1: the Marathon Initiative and he's the author of a new book,

1624
01:24:48,400 --> 01:24:51,960
Speaker 1: The Strategy of Denial. We've had him on the show before. Bridge.

1625
01:24:51,960 --> 01:24:54,320
Speaker 1: We have very fortuitous timing here. We have a Taiwan

1626
01:24:54,400 --> 01:24:56,800
Speaker 1: expert booked. He was going to talk about NATO, but

1627
01:24:56,840 --> 01:24:59,160
Speaker 1: it turns out at the very same time our president

1628
01:24:59,240 --> 01:25:01,880
Speaker 1: is abroad in Japan and making some major comments about

1629
01:25:01,920 --> 01:25:04,200
Speaker 1: the defense of Taiwan. When asked if we would defend

1630
01:25:04,240 --> 01:25:06,559
Speaker 1: them militarily. Here's what he had to say. You didn't

1631
01:25:06,560 --> 01:25:10,080
Speaker 1: want to get involved in the Ukraine conflict militarily for

1632
01:25:10,200 --> 01:25:14,040
Speaker 1: obvious reasons. Are you willing to get involved militarily to

1633
01:25:14,080 --> 01:25:17,720
Speaker 1: defend Taiwan if it comes to that, Yes, you are.

1634
01:25:19,720 --> 01:25:25,360
Speaker 1: That's the commitment we made. That's the commandment we made. Well, Bridge,

1635
01:25:25,400 --> 01:25:27,639
Speaker 1: let's just get your immediate reaction to that. I mean,

1636
01:25:27,640 --> 01:25:30,519
Speaker 1: you've so full disclosure, You've written the book, your advocate

1637
01:25:30,520 --> 01:25:32,240
Speaker 1: of defense of Taiwan. We had you on for our

1638
01:25:32,439 --> 01:25:35,320
Speaker 1: debate segment, but just purely from an analytical point of view,

1639
01:25:35,360 --> 01:25:37,879
Speaker 1: what do you make of the president in his departure

1640
01:25:37,920 --> 01:25:40,679
Speaker 1: from a strategic ambiguity here? Well, I think he's wise,

1641
01:25:40,720 --> 01:25:42,680
Speaker 1: but I actually think it's it's excuse me. I think

1642
01:25:42,680 --> 01:25:45,360
Speaker 1: he's right, but I think it's actually unwise in the

1643
01:25:45,400 --> 01:25:48,439
Speaker 1: sense that I actually think he's correct that we should

1644
01:25:48,439 --> 01:25:51,599
Speaker 1: and almost invariably would come to Taiwan's defense. The question

1645
01:25:51,680 --> 01:25:53,960
Speaker 1: is more whether we would be effective. But the thing

1646
01:25:54,040 --> 01:25:55,320
Speaker 1: is not to you know. The way I think about

1647
01:25:55,320 --> 01:25:57,400
Speaker 1: it is like we're kind of poking the dragon right now.

1648
01:25:57,400 --> 01:25:59,679
Speaker 1: I think we should maintain the sort of formal policy

1649
01:25:59,720 --> 01:26:02,280
Speaker 1: almost like the fiction of strategic ambiguity, which is a

1650
01:26:02,400 --> 01:26:05,679
Speaker 1: kind of decades old policy that allows us to kind

1651
01:26:05,680 --> 01:26:09,439
Speaker 1: of interact with the Chinese. But we should very clearly

1652
01:26:09,479 --> 01:26:11,240
Speaker 1: understand that we would come to Taiwan's events. But the

1653
01:26:11,320 --> 01:26:13,400
Speaker 1: key there is actually to resource it and have the

1654
01:26:13,400 --> 01:26:15,680
Speaker 1: prioritization of the focus. And you mentioned Europe. We're not

1655
01:26:15,680 --> 01:26:17,479
Speaker 1: doing that right now. We're sending forty billion dollars to

1656
01:26:17,520 --> 01:26:19,880
Speaker 1: Europe basically, and there's almost nothing to show for it

1657
01:26:20,600 --> 01:26:22,600
Speaker 1: in the Asia Pacific, and the situation is grave and

1658
01:26:22,600 --> 01:26:25,720
Speaker 1: it's deteriorating. Let's just back up for a second. For

1659
01:26:25,760 --> 01:26:30,080
Speaker 1: people who aren't super enmeshed in Taiwan and the politics

1660
01:26:30,120 --> 01:26:32,360
Speaker 1: around this, can you just explain to people what the

1661
01:26:32,400 --> 01:26:36,720
Speaker 1: policy has been, what is strategic ambiguity, and why this

1662
01:26:36,800 --> 01:26:41,200
Speaker 1: is such a dramatic shift in terms of US policy. Sure,

1663
01:26:41,280 --> 01:26:43,360
Speaker 1: I mean so very briefly, there was a civil war

1664
01:26:43,360 --> 01:26:45,320
Speaker 1: in China. It was resolved in nineteen forty nine. The

1665
01:26:45,320 --> 01:26:48,519
Speaker 1: communists one the nationalist government that was US aligned, escaped

1666
01:26:48,520 --> 01:26:52,240
Speaker 1: to Taiwan for a variety of reasons. We basically protected

1667
01:26:52,280 --> 01:26:55,200
Speaker 1: them and there was an alliance. We actually recognized the

1668
01:26:55,200 --> 01:26:58,040
Speaker 1: government on Taiwan as the government of China. As part

1669
01:26:58,080 --> 01:27:00,200
Speaker 1: of the opening to China in the nineteen seventies, we

1670
01:27:00,280 --> 01:27:04,519
Speaker 1: shifted recognition to Beijing, and we basically kind of it's

1671
01:27:04,560 --> 01:27:07,880
Speaker 1: a contentious issue, but we basically acknowledged that there was

1672
01:27:07,920 --> 01:27:10,800
Speaker 1: one China and that we would not kind of push

1673
01:27:10,840 --> 01:27:13,280
Speaker 1: for Taiwan independence and so forth. One of the fudges

1674
01:27:13,520 --> 01:27:16,479
Speaker 1: was what was called what is called strategic ambiguity, which

1675
01:27:16,520 --> 01:27:18,679
Speaker 1: is a formal policy where we don't make it clear

1676
01:27:19,120 --> 01:27:21,840
Speaker 1: officially whether we would come to Taiwan's defense. That said,

1677
01:27:21,880 --> 01:27:24,160
Speaker 1: there are things like the Taiwan Relations Act, the Congress

1678
01:27:24,200 --> 01:27:27,320
Speaker 1: past that say we would regard as a very serious issue.

1679
01:27:27,600 --> 01:27:31,200
Speaker 1: So there's the formal policy. What's changed is China's ability

1680
01:27:31,240 --> 01:27:33,240
Speaker 1: to do something. Mao wanted to take over Taiwan, but

1681
01:27:33,280 --> 01:27:35,800
Speaker 1: he couldn't. Xijinping wants to take over Taiwan and he

1682
01:27:35,880 --> 01:27:39,000
Speaker 1: plausibly can yes, And so that's the big difference. And

1683
01:27:39,040 --> 01:27:40,960
Speaker 1: so we have been neglecting the focus of this is

1684
01:27:40,960 --> 01:27:43,680
Speaker 1: one of the reasons I wrote this book. But you know,

1685
01:27:44,400 --> 01:27:47,080
Speaker 1: what this is is about our kind of formal government policy.

1686
01:27:47,120 --> 01:27:49,200
Speaker 1: This is not the most important issue actually around this

1687
01:27:49,240 --> 01:27:51,280
Speaker 1: it's the one that gets the most attention but it's

1688
01:27:51,320 --> 01:27:53,040
Speaker 1: not the most important issue. Yeah, and I think that

1689
01:27:53,080 --> 01:27:55,280
Speaker 1: one of the things that originally let's pivot to that. Then,

1690
01:27:55,320 --> 01:27:57,360
Speaker 1: as you point to, like, okay, you know, reviews on

1691
01:27:57,439 --> 01:28:01,320
Speaker 1: Taiwan aside as you're pointing to, the current US policy

1692
01:28:01,400 --> 01:28:05,679
Speaker 1: under the Biden administration is a major prioritization of Europe.

1693
01:28:05,720 --> 01:28:08,120
Speaker 1: Now we have spent I actually was informed very much

1694
01:28:08,160 --> 01:28:10,200
Speaker 1: by your analysis. I did a whole monologue here how

1695
01:28:10,200 --> 01:28:12,840
Speaker 1: we have sent fifty some billion over to Europe, and

1696
01:28:12,880 --> 01:28:15,519
Speaker 1: the Europeans themselves have sent a total of like maybe

1697
01:28:15,560 --> 01:28:18,519
Speaker 1: ten if you're using generous accounting. I mean, what does

1698
01:28:18,560 --> 01:28:21,000
Speaker 1: it mean bridge in this age of where we're sending

1699
01:28:21,200 --> 01:28:24,559
Speaker 1: our excess javelin capacity, so much of our military aid,

1700
01:28:24,720 --> 01:28:27,960
Speaker 1: so much of our political complete obsession in terms of

1701
01:28:28,000 --> 01:28:32,080
Speaker 1: foreign policy, is in Europe, in an area which, to

1702
01:28:32,160 --> 01:28:34,360
Speaker 1: my view, and I think yours as well, lacks the

1703
01:28:34,400 --> 01:28:37,760
Speaker 1: strategic Whatever you think about Taiwan, it seems far more

1704
01:28:37,760 --> 01:28:40,639
Speaker 1: strategically important to the future of the United States than

1705
01:28:40,680 --> 01:28:42,599
Speaker 1: of whatever happens in Ukraine. Well, I think you're right,

1706
01:28:42,640 --> 01:28:44,439
Speaker 1: and I mean, look, this is not about Taiwan. I

1707
01:28:44,439 --> 01:28:47,240
Speaker 1: don't I mean, frankly, I'm not thinking about Taiwan's interests.

1708
01:28:47,240 --> 01:28:50,000
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about Americans interests. But when we think about that,

1709
01:28:50,560 --> 01:28:52,720
Speaker 1: by far the most important theater of the world is

1710
01:28:52,720 --> 01:28:54,920
Speaker 1: Asians can be well over fifty percent of global GDP,

1711
01:28:55,040 --> 01:28:57,840
Speaker 1: and by far the most significant threat out there is

1712
01:28:58,280 --> 01:29:02,360
Speaker 1: China is ten x the Russian Ya and Taiwan is

1713
01:29:02,560 --> 01:29:05,840
Speaker 1: really close. It's central to the security situation in nation.

1714
01:29:05,920 --> 01:29:07,960
Speaker 1: I can go into that, but there's no buffer, There's

1715
01:29:07,960 --> 01:29:11,559
Speaker 1: no Ukraine. Taiwan is more like Poland basically, and it's

1716
01:29:11,680 --> 01:29:14,200
Speaker 1: very difficult to defend. And so what I want to

1717
01:29:14,200 --> 01:29:16,800
Speaker 1: do is I want to deter a war. I want

1718
01:29:16,840 --> 01:29:19,400
Speaker 1: to prevent a war by deterring it. The thing that's

1719
01:29:19,400 --> 01:29:21,320
Speaker 1: happening is the Pentagon and some other place are saying

1720
01:29:21,360 --> 01:29:23,920
Speaker 1: some good things about China and Taiwan, but they're often saying, oh,

1721
01:29:23,920 --> 01:29:25,360
Speaker 1: we're going to get to it in twenty thirty five.

1722
01:29:25,400 --> 01:29:28,439
Speaker 1: But the revealed behavior is a prioritization of Europe. And

1723
01:29:28,479 --> 01:29:30,640
Speaker 1: my point of view is like, look, I think a

1724
01:29:30,720 --> 01:29:34,160
Speaker 1: war is very plausible. China has the will to take

1725
01:29:34,200 --> 01:29:36,880
Speaker 1: over Taiwan, it has increasingly has a way, and it

1726
01:29:36,880 --> 01:29:39,840
Speaker 1: may have a sense of urgency about it. So yes,

1727
01:29:39,920 --> 01:29:41,840
Speaker 1: I hear some good things from the Pentagon stuff. But if,

1728
01:29:41,880 --> 01:29:43,880
Speaker 1: like we really thought a war with a superpower was

1729
01:29:43,920 --> 01:29:45,720
Speaker 1: on the verge of happening, wouldn't you think that things

1730
01:29:45,760 --> 01:29:48,599
Speaker 1: would be different. Would you be sending forty billion dollars

1731
01:29:48,680 --> 01:29:51,000
Speaker 1: and having let's be honest, members of both parties getting

1732
01:29:51,080 --> 01:29:53,680
Speaker 1: up and say, oh, it's one theater wrong. There are

1733
01:29:53,680 --> 01:29:56,120
Speaker 1: real choices and now is the time to make them,

1734
01:29:56,160 --> 01:29:59,000
Speaker 1: and that's not happening. And I think we frankly, I

1735
01:29:59,040 --> 01:30:00,519
Speaker 1: think we're at the point where peop need to be

1736
01:30:00,560 --> 01:30:02,840
Speaker 1: aware of the accountability where you could have a nine

1737
01:30:02,840 --> 01:30:05,840
Speaker 1: to eleven commission or Pearl Harbor investigation, and who's going

1738
01:30:05,880 --> 01:30:08,600
Speaker 1: to be responsible? And I think that's not just the

1739
01:30:08,840 --> 01:30:11,240
Speaker 1: sort of hippie lefties or whatever because nobody expects them

1740
01:30:11,240 --> 01:30:13,320
Speaker 1: to do it. It's people who should know better, who

1741
01:30:13,320 --> 01:30:16,280
Speaker 1: should be prioritizing the primary threat. And that's not happening. Yeah.

1742
01:30:16,320 --> 01:30:18,719
Speaker 1: So I think what the administration would say in response,

1743
01:30:18,760 --> 01:30:21,280
Speaker 1: if I can play Devil's advocate here is look the

1744
01:30:21,360 --> 01:30:23,400
Speaker 1: very fact that we that we made this trip that

1745
01:30:23,560 --> 01:30:26,639
Speaker 1: you know, Biden, the administration is actually walking back Biden's

1746
01:30:26,640 --> 01:30:28,880
Speaker 1: comments on all of them, say no, it didn't mean

1747
01:30:28,920 --> 01:30:31,320
Speaker 1: that at all, even though it was very clear, very

1748
01:30:31,320 --> 01:30:33,519
Speaker 1: clear what he said, but they say, look, we announced

1749
01:30:33,560 --> 01:30:36,040
Speaker 1: this economic block, which I'm also curious what your view

1750
01:30:36,200 --> 01:30:38,639
Speaker 1: of is there. So this shows you we can walk

1751
01:30:38,680 --> 01:30:40,960
Speaker 1: and shoe bubblegum at the same time. Yes, we have

1752
01:30:41,080 --> 01:30:43,559
Speaker 1: to focus on what's going on in Ukraine with Russia,

1753
01:30:43,600 --> 01:30:46,439
Speaker 1: but we also are very much focused on Asia Pacific

1754
01:30:46,520 --> 01:30:48,679
Speaker 1: and developments there, making sure that you know, we're securing

1755
01:30:48,680 --> 01:30:51,360
Speaker 1: the supply chain and securing the sort of economic block

1756
01:30:51,439 --> 01:30:53,760
Speaker 1: so that China doesn't dominate the region. What would your

1757
01:30:53,760 --> 01:30:56,120
Speaker 1: response to that be, Well, you may know that the

1758
01:30:56,200 --> 01:30:58,840
Speaker 1: comment walk and shoegum triggers me because if you were

1759
01:30:58,920 --> 01:31:01,240
Speaker 1: I did not know that you were again a superpower war,

1760
01:31:01,240 --> 01:31:04,600
Speaker 1: would you call it walking or chewing gum? Yeah, like

1761
01:31:04,640 --> 01:31:06,400
Speaker 1: I'm about to get into a marathon, n Ie need

1762
01:31:06,400 --> 01:31:08,559
Speaker 1: to compete at the level of the Kenyans and the Olympics. Yes,

1763
01:31:08,880 --> 01:31:10,720
Speaker 1: or I'm going to bite off I don't know, pick

1764
01:31:10,760 --> 01:31:12,320
Speaker 1: your thing. I'm going to wrestle a bear and eat him.

1765
01:31:12,600 --> 01:31:14,000
Speaker 1: That's the kind of thing that we're talking about. So

1766
01:31:14,000 --> 01:31:15,559
Speaker 1: when people say, oh, we're going to walk in chew gum,

1767
01:31:15,760 --> 01:31:19,120
Speaker 1: that actually tells me that people have no serious understanding

1768
01:31:19,120 --> 01:31:22,360
Speaker 1: of what's involved. And the administration, yes they say these things,

1769
01:31:22,720 --> 01:31:25,800
Speaker 1: but I mean, first of all, the Chinese are building

1770
01:31:25,840 --> 01:31:28,479
Speaker 1: a real military for like so and that that is

1771
01:31:28,520 --> 01:31:31,280
Speaker 1: not about going and having pretty meetings. The administration talks

1772
01:31:31,360 --> 01:31:33,200
Speaker 1: up the quad, it talks up as economic framework, and

1773
01:31:33,240 --> 01:31:34,880
Speaker 1: I have some sympathy for it and so forth, but

1774
01:31:34,920 --> 01:31:38,200
Speaker 1: that ain't the same as real military investments, like you're

1775
01:31:38,200 --> 01:31:39,960
Speaker 1: about to have Pearl Harbor? Are you ready? I mean,

1776
01:31:40,000 --> 01:31:42,559
Speaker 1: we actually were probably more ready before a poor harbor

1777
01:31:42,720 --> 01:31:45,160
Speaker 1: than what we're doing than what we're doing now. And

1778
01:31:45,200 --> 01:31:47,519
Speaker 1: so that's what I would say is it's a hard

1779
01:31:47,560 --> 01:31:51,920
Speaker 1: power thing, and resources are scarce, and not just military resources,

1780
01:31:51,960 --> 01:31:54,360
Speaker 1: but political resources. What's he talking about with the President

1781
01:31:54,400 --> 01:31:56,719
Speaker 1: of South Korean the part ministry. Let's actually let's actually

1782
01:31:56,720 --> 01:31:59,320
Speaker 1: talk about that, the political resources. Because you made a

1783
01:31:59,360 --> 01:32:01,880
Speaker 1: comment at the beginning that you think that US coming

1784
01:32:01,920 --> 01:32:05,639
Speaker 1: to the military defense of Taiwan is inevitable, I would

1785
01:32:05,680 --> 01:32:08,519
Speaker 1: suggest that the political will is not in place to

1786
01:32:08,880 --> 01:32:11,720
Speaker 1: do that currently, although you know, we'd need to see

1787
01:32:11,720 --> 01:32:15,240
Speaker 1: polling and see what happens. If you know these indivindualities unfold,

1788
01:32:15,479 --> 01:32:17,320
Speaker 1: How are you reading that? Why do you believe that

1789
01:32:17,320 --> 01:32:19,120
Speaker 1: there would be the political will and that this would

1790
01:32:19,160 --> 01:32:21,840
Speaker 1: ultimately be inevitable. I think it's a combination of the

1791
01:32:21,880 --> 01:32:25,080
Speaker 1: almost certain both domestic and international political pressure. So just

1792
01:32:25,160 --> 01:32:26,759
Speaker 1: on polling, and you guys would know better than I.

1793
01:32:26,800 --> 01:32:29,439
Speaker 1: My understanding the polling on Taiwan is there's much stronger. Actually,

1794
01:32:29,920 --> 01:32:32,479
Speaker 1: support for defending Taiwan has increased significantly the last few years.

1795
01:32:32,520 --> 01:32:35,240
Speaker 1: There's a Chicago Council poll. The Reagan Institute also did

1796
01:32:35,280 --> 01:32:38,360
Speaker 1: a poll that suggests that now American views on these

1797
01:32:38,400 --> 01:32:40,920
Speaker 1: things are fairly plastic. On the other hand, the President

1798
01:32:40,960 --> 01:32:44,200
Speaker 1: of the United States, who's a very left Democrat, has

1799
01:32:44,240 --> 01:32:47,280
Speaker 1: basically said would dispute that. Yeah, well, I mean from

1800
01:32:47,280 --> 01:32:52,280
Speaker 1: my point of view, but but you know, has basically

1801
01:32:52,320 --> 01:32:54,400
Speaker 1: said several times that he's prepared to defend and the

1802
01:32:54,400 --> 01:32:57,519
Speaker 1: political opposition from the Republican Party is that we should

1803
01:32:57,520 --> 01:33:00,080
Speaker 1: do more and be prepared to do so. So I

1804
01:33:00,120 --> 01:33:02,680
Speaker 1: think the political I mean, if Biden fails to do it,

1805
01:33:03,080 --> 01:33:05,160
Speaker 1: he will have committed himself, the United States already committed,

1806
01:33:05,160 --> 01:33:06,840
Speaker 1: and he will be humiliated. The United States will lose

1807
01:33:06,840 --> 01:33:10,280
Speaker 1: its first great power war in its history. Okay. Secondly,

1808
01:33:10,320 --> 01:33:14,120
Speaker 1: the international pressure because of the importance of Taiwan to

1809
01:33:14,439 --> 01:33:16,840
Speaker 1: what I call the anti hegemonic coalition in Asia will

1810
01:33:16,880 --> 01:33:20,760
Speaker 1: be so controlling that if we don't act, you could act.

1811
01:33:20,800 --> 01:33:23,320
Speaker 1: I was talking to a diplomat, senior diplomat from an

1812
01:33:23,320 --> 01:33:25,160
Speaker 1: Asia Pacific country, who was like, if we lose time,

1813
01:33:25,200 --> 01:33:27,000
Speaker 1: and this is not an extreme person in our country,

1814
01:33:27,280 --> 01:33:30,000
Speaker 1: it's like, if Taiwan falls, people will all cut deals.

1815
01:33:30,520 --> 01:33:34,320
Speaker 1: So I think that's the issue the question, Crystal. The

1816
01:33:34,400 --> 01:33:36,519
Speaker 1: key is to drive down the costs. So I'm not

1817
01:33:36,560 --> 01:33:38,519
Speaker 1: theological about Taiwan. We make it to the point where

1818
01:33:38,520 --> 01:33:40,599
Speaker 1: we can't defend Taiwan and then we will have to abandon,

1819
01:33:40,680 --> 01:33:43,320
Speaker 1: but that will be disaster for us and for the region.

1820
01:33:43,320 --> 01:33:44,840
Speaker 1: Although I'm thinking more about us and what do you

1821
01:33:44,880 --> 01:33:47,320
Speaker 1: make of the Zihon analysis we had him on the

1822
01:33:47,320 --> 01:33:50,920
Speaker 1: show last week that basically says, because of demographics, China

1823
01:33:51,040 --> 01:33:53,599
Speaker 1: is set to have massive demographic bust, which I think

1824
01:33:53,600 --> 01:33:56,880
Speaker 1: if you look at the numbers, is pretty indisputable, especially

1825
01:33:56,920 --> 01:33:59,080
Speaker 1: since they had the one child policy for so many years.

1826
01:33:59,120 --> 01:34:01,479
Speaker 1: So while you have many countries around the world that

1827
01:34:01,560 --> 01:34:04,360
Speaker 1: are facing this demographic bust in terms of their you know,

1828
01:34:04,640 --> 01:34:09,200
Speaker 1: workforce age population, China is an extreme example, facing this

1829
01:34:09,320 --> 01:34:11,840
Speaker 1: down at the fastest rate in history, that that's going

1830
01:34:11,880 --> 01:34:14,240
Speaker 1: to cause them all sorts of problems. And so the

1831
01:34:14,320 --> 01:34:16,600
Speaker 1: idea that they're this juggernaut that we must go to

1832
01:34:16,640 --> 01:34:19,760
Speaker 1: war with to protect our own interest is sort of

1833
01:34:19,760 --> 01:34:23,680
Speaker 1: far fat. I'm listen, I'm summarizing years. I don't want

1834
01:34:23,680 --> 01:34:25,360
Speaker 1: to put words in his mouth, but that was the

1835
01:34:25,360 --> 01:34:27,160
Speaker 1: gist of what I took from his hop. Well, couple things.

1836
01:34:27,160 --> 01:34:28,879
Speaker 1: I mean, one, I would say I'm not an economist,

1837
01:34:28,960 --> 01:34:32,360
Speaker 1: but I'll confess that I'm skeptical of that kind of view.

1838
01:34:32,760 --> 01:34:35,960
Speaker 1: And secondly, even if he's right, we should prepare for

1839
01:34:36,000 --> 01:34:37,680
Speaker 1: the downside risk because we don't know what the future is.

1840
01:34:37,720 --> 01:34:41,000
Speaker 1: So I mean, where's my skepticism. Well, yes, but demographic

1841
01:34:41,160 --> 01:34:42,960
Speaker 1: trends are happening all around the world. There happening in

1842
01:34:42,960 --> 01:34:45,160
Speaker 1: the other Northeast Asian states, They're happening among the native

1843
01:34:45,160 --> 01:34:49,519
Speaker 1: word population here and in Europe and so forth. And

1844
01:34:49,600 --> 01:34:52,000
Speaker 1: even if let's say that the Chinese conk out where

1845
01:34:52,040 --> 01:34:53,840
Speaker 1: the Japanese left off, they'll still be an economy of

1846
01:34:53,920 --> 01:34:58,160
Speaker 1: roughly twice the size that we are. So and you know, look,

1847
01:34:58,439 --> 01:35:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean financial industries elon are is still putting in

1848
01:35:02,280 --> 01:35:04,920
Speaker 1: enormous investments into China. China's the largest trading partner, I

1849
01:35:04,920 --> 01:35:06,920
Speaker 1: believe it, most of the countries in the world. So

1850
01:35:08,240 --> 01:35:12,559
Speaker 1: I guess he could be right, but I frankly I'm skeptical. Secondly, though,

1851
01:35:13,320 --> 01:35:15,320
Speaker 1: what if he's wrong. So if he's right and we

1852
01:35:15,400 --> 01:35:17,679
Speaker 1: over prepare and do what I did, no big deal. Okay,

1853
01:35:17,680 --> 01:35:19,519
Speaker 1: we wasted some money, and that would be bad. But

1854
01:35:19,560 --> 01:35:22,760
Speaker 1: I mean the alternative is if I'm right and he's

1855
01:35:22,800 --> 01:35:25,000
Speaker 1: wrong and we didn't prepare, we will lose and we'll

1856
01:35:25,000 --> 01:35:26,840
Speaker 1: all live under the Chinese thumb. I want to get

1857
01:35:26,880 --> 01:35:29,040
Speaker 1: to one of the things the trade offs the administration

1858
01:35:29,120 --> 01:35:31,360
Speaker 1: is talking about right now, bridge, which is that the

1859
01:35:31,520 --> 01:35:35,080
Speaker 1: US is considering lifting tariffs to fight inflation. Now. I

1860
01:35:35,120 --> 01:35:38,040
Speaker 1: find this very interesting because one of the reasons that

1861
01:35:38,040 --> 01:35:40,080
Speaker 1: we have high inflation is because we have zero economic

1862
01:35:40,160 --> 01:35:42,960
Speaker 1: resiliency and we've relied on China and they make all

1863
01:35:42,960 --> 01:35:46,040
Speaker 1: of our stuff. But two, it is fine to say

1864
01:35:46,080 --> 01:35:49,000
Speaker 1: we have a putin price hike and then lift tariffs

1865
01:35:49,040 --> 01:35:52,040
Speaker 1: on Beijing. And if you consider, you know what the

1866
01:35:52,120 --> 01:35:55,880
Speaker 1: long term prospects of that economically are, especially from a

1867
01:35:55,920 --> 01:35:59,000
Speaker 1: strategic point of view in our own economic resiliency. This

1868
01:35:59,040 --> 01:36:01,439
Speaker 1: is why we're in the city where we are right now.

1869
01:36:01,439 --> 01:36:03,800
Speaker 1: So I'm just curious for your view in terms of

1870
01:36:03,840 --> 01:36:08,120
Speaker 1: a total strategic kind of orientation the United States has

1871
01:36:08,200 --> 01:36:11,360
Speaker 1: under the Biden administration. What does that leave us vulnerable

1872
01:36:11,360 --> 01:36:13,479
Speaker 1: to in the future if there is chaos in Asia,

1873
01:36:13,520 --> 01:36:15,840
Speaker 1: Like you said, look, maybe we don't come to Taiwan's defense.

1874
01:36:16,000 --> 01:36:17,800
Speaker 1: If that's true, you're gonna have a nuclear Japan, You're

1875
01:36:17,800 --> 01:36:19,760
Speaker 1: gonna have a nuclear South Korea. You're gonna have the

1876
01:36:19,880 --> 01:36:22,360
Speaker 1: entire region in chaos, and it might actually have a

1877
01:36:22,400 --> 01:36:24,760
Speaker 1: war in the first place. Regardless, it's going to have

1878
01:36:24,760 --> 01:36:27,120
Speaker 1: a massive impact on us. If you think Putin's price

1879
01:36:27,160 --> 01:36:29,640
Speaker 1: hike is bad, just wait until Ji's price hike for

1880
01:36:29,720 --> 01:36:32,760
Speaker 1: something like that. What do we have in the gas tank,

1881
01:36:32,920 --> 01:36:35,919
Speaker 1: you know, rhetorically speaking, to even deal with that currently

1882
01:36:36,000 --> 01:36:39,200
Speaker 1: With the current administration's point, well, I think it's yeah,

1883
01:36:39,360 --> 01:36:42,200
Speaker 1: kind of nuts, not insane to be taking off the

1884
01:36:42,200 --> 01:36:44,360
Speaker 1: tariffs at this point when they haven't really satisfied. And

1885
01:36:44,400 --> 01:36:46,360
Speaker 1: we should be building up our industries at home anyway,

1886
01:36:46,360 --> 01:36:48,240
Speaker 1: and increasing our resilience as you suggest. And why are

1887
01:36:48,320 --> 01:36:50,280
Speaker 1: we giving the Chinese credit instead of building up our

1888
01:36:50,360 --> 01:36:52,160
Speaker 1: energy independence and so forth. I mean, doing the other

1889
01:36:52,160 --> 01:36:54,400
Speaker 1: things that would make sense on inflation. So I think

1890
01:36:54,400 --> 01:36:56,400
Speaker 1: that's I mean, look, we're all sympathetic to what people

1891
01:36:56,439 --> 01:36:58,000
Speaker 1: are going through, but that's not the way to do it,

1892
01:36:58,080 --> 01:36:59,800
Speaker 1: and we're going to have a worse outcome if we

1893
01:37:00,000 --> 01:37:02,600
Speaker 1: increase our dependence on China going forward. One thing I

1894
01:37:02,640 --> 01:37:04,720
Speaker 1: will say is that what this shows you is that

1895
01:37:04,800 --> 01:37:08,120
Speaker 1: strategies for dealing with China in Asia that don't rely

1896
01:37:08,240 --> 01:37:11,759
Speaker 1: on military denial are not credible because already the president

1897
01:37:11,840 --> 01:37:13,720
Speaker 1: is doing things like so when somebody says, oh, we'll

1898
01:37:13,760 --> 01:37:17,040
Speaker 1: sanction the Chinese into oblivion or whatever, forget it, right,

1899
01:37:17,080 --> 01:37:19,280
Speaker 1: they're already talking about giving up the leverage because Yellen

1900
01:37:19,320 --> 01:37:21,559
Speaker 1: and all these people are banging the table. So Larry

1901
01:37:21,600 --> 01:37:23,640
Speaker 1: Fink is calling on the phone or something. Right, So

1902
01:37:23,760 --> 01:37:25,880
Speaker 1: let's be real. If we don't have a military denial,

1903
01:37:25,960 --> 01:37:27,599
Speaker 1: and I would just say, soccer, it's not so much.

1904
01:37:27,720 --> 01:37:30,400
Speaker 1: A nuclear Japan would not be the worst outcome. No,

1905
01:37:30,439 --> 01:37:32,680
Speaker 1: I actually the worst thing. Well, I mean I think

1906
01:37:32,680 --> 01:37:34,120
Speaker 1: there's a I mean I talked about in the book,

1907
01:37:34,200 --> 01:37:37,040
Speaker 1: but I think that the worst outcome is well over

1908
01:37:37,040 --> 01:37:39,559
Speaker 1: fifty percent of global GDP. That's under China's control, that

1909
01:37:39,720 --> 01:37:42,960
Speaker 1: probably uses the Wan that follows Chinese regulations, that is

1910
01:37:43,000 --> 01:37:46,519
Speaker 1: the gatekeeper for all American companies indirect or directly, and

1911
01:37:46,880 --> 01:37:48,920
Speaker 1: we're all going to be working for that, right that's

1912
01:37:48,920 --> 01:37:50,200
Speaker 1: the world that we're going to live in. What do

1913
01:37:50,240 --> 01:37:52,680
Speaker 1: you make of the economic block that was supposed to

1914
01:37:52,720 --> 01:37:55,080
Speaker 1: be the main news item coming out of this press

1915
01:37:55,080 --> 01:37:58,840
Speaker 1: conference before Biden did his thing. How significant is this?

1916
01:37:59,000 --> 01:38:02,160
Speaker 1: How similar is it to TPP? What's impact ultimately? I mean,

1917
01:38:02,200 --> 01:38:04,719
Speaker 1: I don't have a super strong I mean I'm sympathetic

1918
01:38:04,840 --> 01:38:06,960
Speaker 1: in the sense that the middle class, you know, the

1919
01:38:07,000 --> 01:38:09,040
Speaker 1: trade policy for the middle class. I'm very sympathetic because

1920
01:38:09,040 --> 01:38:10,920
Speaker 1: I think you guys are to that idea and it's

1921
01:38:10,920 --> 01:38:13,080
Speaker 1: a tough I mean, look, the real culprits in this

1922
01:38:13,160 --> 01:38:16,120
Speaker 1: are the people who gave globalization a bad name by

1923
01:38:16,200 --> 01:38:19,280
Speaker 1: over financialization and not insisting that China and others follow

1924
01:38:19,280 --> 01:38:21,200
Speaker 1: the rules and so forth. So it's not the fault

1925
01:38:21,200 --> 01:38:24,519
Speaker 1: of the people who are now skeptical about trade. I

1926
01:38:24,520 --> 01:38:27,320
Speaker 1: think the IPEF as I think it's called, it's not

1927
01:38:27,520 --> 01:38:30,479
Speaker 1: really landing very well in Asia. I mean, just because

1928
01:38:30,640 --> 01:38:32,760
Speaker 1: they want trade, they want open markets, of course they do.

1929
01:38:32,760 --> 01:38:34,880
Speaker 1: They want to make more money. But we're also say yeah,

1930
01:38:34,960 --> 01:38:37,519
Speaker 1: but like Americans don't want a TPP. So I mean,

1931
01:38:37,560 --> 01:38:39,920
Speaker 1: you know, when a blob dweller like me says something

1932
01:38:39,920 --> 01:38:43,800
Speaker 1: like TPP is important, that's worse than meaningless. It's like counterproductive.

1933
01:38:44,000 --> 01:38:45,920
Speaker 1: What I will say is that I believe in a

1934
01:38:45,960 --> 01:38:49,559
Speaker 1: worker friendly, in middle class friendly trade policy. But also

1935
01:38:49,880 --> 01:38:51,320
Speaker 1: we're going to be dealing with one point four or

1936
01:38:51,360 --> 01:38:54,680
Speaker 1: maybe one point two billion Chinese who have no data protections,

1937
01:38:54,720 --> 01:38:57,519
Speaker 1: who have no privacy protections. We need to have the

1938
01:38:57,560 --> 01:39:00,120
Speaker 1: scale for our companies to be able to compete. So

1939
01:39:00,360 --> 01:39:02,960
Speaker 1: I do think of quote unquote free world sort of

1940
01:39:03,040 --> 01:39:05,679
Speaker 1: economic area is going to be need to be where

1941
01:39:05,680 --> 01:39:07,840
Speaker 1: we move. The question is how to do that. I

1942
01:39:07,840 --> 01:39:09,160
Speaker 1: don't know what the answer is, but I think that's

1943
01:39:09,200 --> 01:39:11,920
Speaker 1: a real area where creative political leadership is going to

1944
01:39:11,920 --> 01:39:13,360
Speaker 1: be necessary. Yeah, that's right. I mean you have to

1945
01:39:13,360 --> 01:39:15,760
Speaker 1: be able to preserve both, and unfortunately we have never

1946
01:39:15,800 --> 01:39:18,400
Speaker 1: seen any prioritization of the first one. And you know,

1947
01:39:18,439 --> 01:39:21,880
Speaker 1: there's no current guarantee. I would say currently that the

1948
01:39:21,880 --> 01:39:25,000
Speaker 1: current administration prioritizes that. When you have the top leaders

1949
01:39:25,040 --> 01:39:27,040
Speaker 1: in the top Treasury secretary and more saying oh, yeah,

1950
01:39:27,080 --> 01:39:29,439
Speaker 1: we should take off these tariffs on China. So the

1951
01:39:29,520 --> 01:39:31,000
Speaker 1: last thing I want to get to you is the

1952
01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:33,160
Speaker 1: urgency point of view that you said. You said that

1953
01:39:33,200 --> 01:39:36,160
Speaker 1: there could be some urgency on the Chinese part. What

1954
01:39:36,200 --> 01:39:39,000
Speaker 1: domestic political condition did they face where it would be

1955
01:39:39,160 --> 01:39:41,320
Speaker 1: urgent in order to do this? Sure? Well, I mean,

1956
01:39:41,880 --> 01:39:43,719
Speaker 1: I'll tell you the one that I'm most worried about,

1957
01:39:43,720 --> 01:39:46,799
Speaker 1: which is that the defense, the military balance in the Pacific.

1958
01:39:46,920 --> 01:39:50,240
Speaker 1: Our defense people are talking more about the twenty thirties.

1959
01:39:50,280 --> 01:39:53,160
Speaker 1: That's when a lot of our military investments, replacing the

1960
01:39:53,160 --> 01:39:56,799
Speaker 1: Reagan ear investments will come online. It's also this quad,

1961
01:39:56,880 --> 01:39:59,120
Speaker 1: this coalition is kind of coming together. You can see it.

1962
01:39:59,200 --> 01:40:01,320
Speaker 1: I want South kore is kind of becoming more aligned.

1963
01:40:01,400 --> 01:40:03,640
Speaker 1: So if you're China, you say, I've got an opportunity

1964
01:40:03,680 --> 01:40:06,160
Speaker 1: potentially right now, certainly in the coming years by twenty

1965
01:40:06,200 --> 01:40:08,439
Speaker 1: twenty seven, why not act? If you look at why

1966
01:40:08,479 --> 01:40:10,559
Speaker 1: major wars have happened in the past, They've often happened

1967
01:40:10,560 --> 01:40:13,280
Speaker 1: because of this window of vulnerability. I don't put as

1968
01:40:13,360 --> 01:40:15,200
Speaker 1: much purchase into this one. But another thing that people

1969
01:40:15,240 --> 01:40:17,320
Speaker 1: do mention is the thing that Peter Zihen was talking about. Well,

1970
01:40:17,320 --> 01:40:19,080
Speaker 1: if they know they're going off a demographic cliff and

1971
01:40:19,080 --> 01:40:21,479
Speaker 1: an economic cliff. Well, let me get out ahead and

1972
01:40:21,520 --> 01:40:24,639
Speaker 1: build an economic zone that I control to avoid that outcome.

1973
01:40:25,200 --> 01:40:27,360
Speaker 1: So that actually makes it worse. Again that I don't

1974
01:40:27,479 --> 01:40:29,479
Speaker 1: put as much stock in that. There's also the fact

1975
01:40:29,479 --> 01:40:32,559
Speaker 1: that Chijin Ping. Chijin Ping has specifically tethered his own

1976
01:40:32,640 --> 01:40:34,840
Speaker 1: leadership and what he calls the great rejuvenation of the

1977
01:40:34,920 --> 01:40:36,879
Speaker 1: Chinese nation. It's is this big thing to the resolution

1978
01:40:36,920 --> 01:40:39,120
Speaker 1: of the Taiwana shoot. Yes, again, I don't know if

1979
01:40:39,160 --> 01:40:41,599
Speaker 1: that's enough, but that's another factor. So again I look

1980
01:40:41,640 --> 01:40:43,920
Speaker 1: at will weigh urgency, and I get real worried. The

1981
01:40:44,320 --> 01:40:48,280
Speaker 1: argument I've heard against the urgent case that you're making

1982
01:40:48,560 --> 01:40:52,960
Speaker 1: is that the sort of unified and larger than expected

1983
01:40:53,200 --> 01:40:57,120
Speaker 1: response to Ukraine may serve as deterrent. What do you

1984
01:40:57,120 --> 01:40:59,439
Speaker 1: make of that argument. I think it's kind of a wash.

1985
01:40:59,560 --> 01:41:03,400
Speaker 1: It's I certainly think that the Chinese are taking a

1986
01:41:03,439 --> 01:41:05,360
Speaker 1: cautionary note. Part of it's that response, part of it's

1987
01:41:05,360 --> 01:41:07,320
Speaker 1: the difficulties the Russians have had. But I will say

1988
01:41:07,360 --> 01:41:09,640
Speaker 1: a couple things. First of all, it's almost all in Europe,

1989
01:41:09,840 --> 01:41:12,479
Speaker 1: So it's European countries because it's a European issue. It's

1990
01:41:12,800 --> 01:41:15,240
Speaker 1: not crazy, it's not an alliance of democracies. It's basically

1991
01:41:15,280 --> 01:41:17,720
Speaker 1: most of the European countries, and those countries will be

1992
01:41:17,800 --> 01:41:20,680
Speaker 1: less likely to take a similar line over Taiwan for

1993
01:41:20,680 --> 01:41:22,880
Speaker 1: a variety of reasons, partially because they've taken such a

1994
01:41:22,920 --> 01:41:25,120
Speaker 1: hit it actually trades against their ability to do something

1995
01:41:25,160 --> 01:41:27,040
Speaker 1: against China. I was in a meeting with a German

1996
01:41:27,080 --> 01:41:29,040
Speaker 1: senior German official a couple months ago, was like, Hey,

1997
01:41:29,080 --> 01:41:30,759
Speaker 1: how can we get China to help us with Russia

1998
01:41:30,800 --> 01:41:32,880
Speaker 1: because they're taking a huge hit on the oil and

1999
01:41:32,920 --> 01:41:36,400
Speaker 1: gas extrication. So what they're going to completely, you know,

2000
01:41:36,880 --> 01:41:40,679
Speaker 1: strangle their own economy by doing that to China. China's

2001
01:41:40,720 --> 01:41:43,479
Speaker 1: ten x the Russian economy. And we can already see

2002
01:41:43,479 --> 01:41:46,120
Speaker 1: with the administration considering giving up these tariffs, the reality

2003
01:41:46,160 --> 01:41:48,200
Speaker 1: of what this is going to be. So I don't

2004
01:41:48,200 --> 01:41:51,160
Speaker 1: think and in fact, Burns, Bill Burns, the CIA director,

2005
01:41:51,160 --> 01:41:52,960
Speaker 1: said he doesn't think that Chijin Ping's given up on

2006
01:41:52,960 --> 01:41:55,599
Speaker 1: the taiwan Is shoe at all. And of rel Haines,

2007
01:41:55,600 --> 01:41:57,519
Speaker 1: the d and I said, it's an acute threat. And

2008
01:41:57,560 --> 01:41:59,439
Speaker 1: I'm thinking, I guess the last point if we have

2009
01:41:59,439 --> 01:42:01,080
Speaker 1: an acute three the major war that we're going to

2010
01:42:01,120 --> 01:42:03,439
Speaker 1: get into. Shouldn't we be acting like it? Where is that? Right?

2011
01:42:03,800 --> 01:42:07,520
Speaker 1: Is it your sense at all that she is politically vulnerable? Possibly?

2012
01:42:07,800 --> 01:42:10,400
Speaker 1: I mean I think it's possible. Again, I wouldn't bet

2013
01:42:10,400 --> 01:42:12,519
Speaker 1: on it, and I think the I mean, here's the thing.

2014
01:42:12,600 --> 01:42:14,880
Speaker 1: I call it the Maddelin all Bright effect. I mean,

2015
01:42:14,920 --> 01:42:17,400
Speaker 1: basically Maddelin all Bright famously or infamously said to co

2016
01:42:17,479 --> 01:42:19,840
Speaker 1: Em Powell on the Balkans issue, because Powell was Powell

2017
01:42:19,840 --> 01:42:22,360
Speaker 1: doctrine and restrained Vietnam post Vienna, and she said, why

2018
01:42:22,360 --> 01:42:24,280
Speaker 1: do we have this amazing military if we can't use it?

2019
01:42:24,880 --> 01:42:28,559
Speaker 1: So Chinese leaders are much stronger, so Chin and Chinese

2020
01:42:28,560 --> 01:42:31,000
Speaker 1: people are going to expect action. I mean, we would

2021
01:42:31,040 --> 01:42:32,679
Speaker 1: never would have done in the Iraq War in nineteen

2022
01:42:32,720 --> 01:42:34,439
Speaker 1: seventy six because we're like God, I don't want to

2023
01:42:34,439 --> 01:42:36,080
Speaker 1: get that kind of thing again, right, But then in

2024
01:42:36,080 --> 01:42:38,719
Speaker 1: two thousand and three we did this epically stupid thing,

2025
01:42:39,000 --> 01:42:40,519
Speaker 1: you know, So the Chinese are going to have a

2026
01:42:40,520 --> 01:42:42,800
Speaker 1: similar dynamic where they're just a lot stronger and they

2027
01:42:42,840 --> 01:42:45,080
Speaker 1: expect it to be treated accordingly. Maybe she is a

2028
01:42:45,120 --> 01:42:47,880
Speaker 1: stronger variant, but I don't think it would be radically

2029
01:42:47,920 --> 01:42:50,479
Speaker 1: different than his plausible successors. I think that's a great point. Bridge.

2030
01:42:50,520 --> 01:42:52,719
Speaker 1: I've learned a lot from this conversation. We really appreciate

2031
01:42:52,760 --> 01:42:55,000
Speaker 1: we're very fetuitous in having you on the show, so

2032
01:42:55,040 --> 01:42:57,479
Speaker 1: we really appreciate it. Always a pleasure. Thanks absolutely, Thank

2033
01:42:57,479 --> 01:42:58,960
Speaker 1: you guys so much for watching. Thank you for all

2034
01:42:58,960 --> 01:43:02,200
Speaker 1: our premium describer support in the show. Reminder about the scheduling.

2035
01:43:02,200 --> 01:43:04,840
Speaker 1: We're going to be Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and we will

2036
01:43:04,880 --> 01:43:07,120
Speaker 1: see you all on Wednesday night. See you guys on

2037
01:43:07,200 --> 01:43:24,439
Speaker 1: Wednesday