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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch Just Live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Applecarplay and then Roudoo with the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here

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Speaker 2: on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Indeed, I'm Joe Matthew alongside

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Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines in Washington with something to show for their work. Kayleie,

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Speaker 2: the bills pass the House and they're headed for the

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Speaker 2: Senate tomorrow, and that includes TikTok. We've spent a lot

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Speaker 2: of time talking about Ukraine in Israel. The divestor band

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Speaker 2: TikTok bill is part of the so called sidecar that

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Speaker 2: will all.

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Speaker 3: Be stitched together here and sent to the Senate.

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Speaker 2: I told my sixteen year old over the weekend that

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Speaker 2: it was entirely possible now they're going to ban TikTok

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Speaker 2: if they couldn't find a buyer, and he did not

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Speaker 2: believe me.

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Speaker 3: He's tired of hearing that.

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Speaker 4: Well, we've heard it repeatedly for some time now, and

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Speaker 4: to this point, Bite Dance's lobbying efforts against any kind

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Speaker 4: of bill that was divested or band We're working until

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Speaker 4: I guess maybe they stopped working, because we now have

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Speaker 4: a piece of legislation that is very likely to pass

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Speaker 4: the Senate and get the signature from President Biden. Although

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Speaker 4: there is a longer window here for that divestiture. Initially

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Speaker 4: the bill that first passed the House was six months.

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Speaker 4: Now they're going to have up to a year, that's right.

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Speaker 4: The question is does Bite Dance use that year to

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Speaker 4: actually try to find a buyer for its US TikTok

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Speaker 4: arm or is it just going to use that year

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Speaker 4: fighting this thing out in court.

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Speaker 2: Well, we know that the court's coming. This is a

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Speaker 2: question of whether I guess they try both, because also

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Speaker 2: the Chinese government has to sign off on this as well. Right,

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Speaker 2: And we've got a lot of big questions to.

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Speaker 4: Ask about this, yes, and we have some of them

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Speaker 4: now for Mike Shepherd, who is a senior editor for

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Speaker 4: Technology and Strategic Industries here in Washington and is joining

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Speaker 4: us in studios. So, Mike, if we could first just

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Speaker 4: look at the way that TikTok or Byte Dance specifically

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Speaker 4: is likely to respond. Already, there's signaling nope, we're taking

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Speaker 4: this to court. We are not going to go down

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Speaker 4: without a fight.

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Speaker 5: Essentially, you're right, Key, And in fact, they made clear

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Speaker 5: in their statement overnight while we were preparing to get

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Speaker 5: a good night's rest for today in this big week

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Speaker 5: of news, that they were going to fight this in

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Speaker 5: court pretty much as soon as President Joe Biden signs it,

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Speaker 5: as soon as the ink is dry on his signature.

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Speaker 5: And they are making clear that this fight will be

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Speaker 5: waged on First Amendment grounds too. They see this as

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Speaker 5: an infringement of people's freedom of expression and also the

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Speaker 5: impact on businesses. There are a lot of small businesses

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Speaker 5: that use TikTok to reach niche audiences of consumers, and

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Speaker 5: so their argument is going to be on the speech

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Speaker 5: grounds and then also in the business grounds as well.

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Speaker 2: So a year is the timeline, Could the legal effort

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Speaker 2: last longer than that, or maybe a better way of

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Speaker 2: asking it, could the legal effort last longer than November?

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Speaker 2: Because a lot of this is going to key off

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Speaker 2: of who wins the select in terms of the long game.

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Speaker 5: Well, as we've seen in previous court battles involving companies

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Speaker 5: and politicians and the government of course, lawyers have a

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Speaker 5: superpower in being able to drag things out. In fact,

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Speaker 5: if you look at Donald Trump we've been talking about

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Speaker 5: his legal proceedings, the cases, each of those cases has

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Speaker 5: been kicked down the road to some degree or another.

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Speaker 5: And with so much at stake here, and especially given

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Speaker 5: not only the national security grounds that the US government

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Speaker 5: is alleging are at stake in this case, but also

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Speaker 5: the geopolitical and diplomatic stakes with China, this is a

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Speaker 5: very sensitive case and so it will be handled carefully

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Speaker 5: by whatever court picks it up, and the lawyers from

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Speaker 5: both sides are going to be looking to the government

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Speaker 5: may want to move faster, but certainly bye dance, as

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Speaker 5: lawyers will want to take their time.

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Speaker 4: Okay, so it may take a great deal of time

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Speaker 4: for this to actually play out in court. But in

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Speaker 4: the hypothetical scenario that the US government comes out on

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Speaker 4: top that bye dance challenge, wh does not work and

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Speaker 4: it really is faced with this option of divest or

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Speaker 4: get banned in the US, what is that divestiture actually

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Speaker 4: likely to look like? Who is a realistic buyer for

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Speaker 4: a company that could be worth tens of billions of

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Speaker 4: dollars and also could raise antitrust concerns if another tech

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Speaker 4: company were to try to absorb something of that.

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Speaker 5: And these are great questions that you're asking here, Kayley,

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Speaker 5: because the mechanism of the divestiture is going to be

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Speaker 5: incredibly complex. Not only are the anti trust grounds. I

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Speaker 5: think though, we have to back up a little bit

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Speaker 5: because there are a couple of steps that we need

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Speaker 5: to clear before we even get to the point of

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Speaker 5: an actual sale. A. The company would have to agree

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Speaker 5: to it. B the Chinese government would have to sign off,

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Speaker 5: and that they are already making clear that that's a

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Speaker 5: no go. And then even if they do agree to

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Speaker 5: a sale, would that come with the very thing that

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Speaker 5: any sensible buyer would want, And those are the algorithms,

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Speaker 5: the crown jewels of TikTok, the thing that makes it

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Speaker 5: so good and that makes it work. Now, assuming that's

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Speaker 5: all in there, and I'm highly skeptical that each of

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Speaker 5: these hurdles would be cleared, then you would have to

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Speaker 5: find deep enough pockets to buy this to fend off

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Speaker 5: the anti trust questions, and then somebody'd be willing to

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Speaker 5: take on the risk. This is a lot of user

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Speaker 5: data and you have this lingering concern that there might

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Speaker 5: be some still existent connection to China.

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Speaker 2: So it sounds to me like you just outlined the

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Speaker 2: case for a ban. It may be impossible, if I'm

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Speaker 2: reading you correctly, to find a buyer who could check

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Speaker 2: all of those boxes.

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Speaker 5: Well, if not a band, then an outright ban. In

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Speaker 5: other words, you talked about your your son and the

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Speaker 5: interest in keeping TikTok alive and the inability to suspend

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Speaker 5: disbelief that wait a minute, this app that I've come

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Speaker 5: to know and love will go away. It could exist,

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Speaker 5: but just not on the app stores. The bill would

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Speaker 5: require the app stores to delist it. But you know,

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Speaker 5: kids and users have a way around it.

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Speaker 4: Well, it's like VPNs. I mean, as someone who had

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Speaker 4: visited China several years ago and I wanted to be

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Speaker 4: able to use Facebook on my phone, I already had

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Speaker 4: it on my phone. I probably couldn't have downloaded it

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Speaker 4: while in China, got a VPN, could use it fine fun. Basically,

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Speaker 4: this could just make the US with this particular app

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Speaker 4: look a lot like what people have to do in

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Speaker 4: China and using other apps that are a banned in China.

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Speaker 5: Kaylie also brought up another good point and that is

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Speaker 5: the election A year from now is a long time. Now,

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Speaker 5: think about it. If we have a change in administration

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Speaker 5: or changes in Congress, we could perhaps see another move

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Speaker 5: to maybe defuse or defang this in some fashion. Not

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Speaker 5: saying it's going to happen, but I wouldn't rule out

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Speaker 5: maybe some attempt by that if it becomes a Trump

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Speaker 5: administration that's incoming, they may seek to try to stop

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Speaker 5: this from actually taking effect. Remember Trump was the one

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Speaker 5: who would sign the order initially seeking to ban TikTok,

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Speaker 5: but now a month ago he changed this tune. He

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Speaker 5: said he thought the legislation was a bad idea because

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Speaker 5: it would give in effect too much to meta.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 5: Of course, he has an axagrind with Facebook over him

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Speaker 5: being banned there after January sixth.

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Speaker 2: Yes, not dealing with TikTok on its own right, but

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Speaker 2: just don't want to strengthen the other guy in this case.

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Speaker 3: You said something.

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Speaker 2: Important though about the Crown Jewels. That's the algorithm. Let's

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Speaker 2: say Steve Manuchin or somebody stands up. Let's say it's

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Speaker 2: a patriotic move. They buy this thing from more than

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Speaker 2: it's worth. God knows what's going to happen. But without

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Speaker 2: the special sauce there, this could become a really different product.

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Speaker 2: It could be one that my sixteen year old doesn't

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Speaker 2: care about it anymore. Right, because the algorithm is the

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Speaker 2: essence of the business.

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Speaker 5: Well, that's what makes it work, that's what makes it distinctive. Now,

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Speaker 5: somebody like Steve Manuchin could find a group of investors

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Speaker 5: and technologists to maybe get it pretty close. You know,

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Speaker 5: is it closer? Is it close enough to Coca Cola?

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Speaker 3: Right? Exactly?

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Speaker 5: But you know, people have you know, there are coke

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Speaker 5: people and they're pepsi people. And if the TikTok person

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Speaker 5: finds the new flavor just a little bit off or

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Speaker 5: maybe not serving the purpose that they have in mind.

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Speaker 5: Because as I said, there are also businesses who have

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Speaker 5: been using this to target their audiences. People with very

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Speaker 5: niche businesses. If they make something and knitting or crochet

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Speaker 5: or makeup or whatever, something maybe related to sports, they

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Speaker 5: have a way, a pathway to that audience of consumers

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Speaker 5: that they have built up over this time.

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Speaker 4: Well, of course we've all seen the advertisements. I'm sure

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Speaker 4: part of TikTok's lobbying effort against getting banned with highlighting businesses.

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Speaker 4: I think I saw a beekeeper that made like honey

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Speaker 4: products or soaper or.

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Speaker 6: Something like that.

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Speaker 4: There's veterans involved really trying to take their case to

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Speaker 4: the public just as much as to Capitol Hill.

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Speaker 3: Totally agree with it or not?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, fair enough. Final question, just because you raise the election,

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Speaker 4: regardless of what happens in court or whatever, we're talking

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Speaker 4: a year window in which TikTok will assumably be fully operational,

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Speaker 4: nothing will change. How concerned should we be about the

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Speaker 4: information misinformation, disinformation that could be propagated on that platform

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Speaker 4: in the run up to November in the interim.

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Speaker 5: Well, Kelly, when you talk to the proponents of the legislation,

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Speaker 5: that is one of the very reasons that they argue

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Speaker 5: for a ban. They are saying that there's already so

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Speaker 5: much misinformation out there that's skewed and distorted, and in

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Speaker 5: a way, the social media platforms in general have stepped

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Speaker 5: away from any kind of role in being moderators of content.

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Speaker 5: They don't want to have to take ownership of a

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Speaker 5: responsibility for specific material that could be disinformation. They really

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Speaker 5: just want to say, hey, this is town square. It's

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Speaker 5: up to you to figure out who you want to

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Speaker 5: trust and who you decide to believe in, and this

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Speaker 5: is the case here with TikTok. But the trouble is

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Speaker 5: since it does have this foreign tie. You know, you

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Speaker 5: talked to national security experts here in this town. Many

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Speaker 5: of them will say, be careful.

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Speaker 3: Great to have you in studio with this.

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Speaker 2: Michael, congratulations on the new title as well, Senior Editor

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Speaker 2: for Technology and Strategic Industries, which means you're going to

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Speaker 2: be spending a lot of time on stories like this one,

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Speaker 2: and we'd love to continue tapping your expertise here on Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Great to have Michael Shepard with us as we add

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Speaker 2: the voice of former Ambassador Mark Ginsberg. He spent time

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Speaker 2: as US Ambassador to Morocco, bringing us his geopolitical view.

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Speaker 2: Is also now president of the Coalition for a Safer

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Speaker 2: Web and has a good sense of what we're talking about.

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Speaker 2: Mister ambassador, Welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to see

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Speaker 2: you here. We've talked about so many variables. I wonder

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Speaker 2: what your thought is. Assuming this is passed tomorrow and

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Speaker 2: is signed by the President, we then enter a protracted

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Speaker 2: legal battle.

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Speaker 3: How will that end?

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Speaker 7: It's hard to tell. With the negotiations in Caracas, and

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Speaker 7: I worked up on the hill for seven years when

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Speaker 7: this bill originally came to the Senate. The Senate it

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Speaker 7: because there was fear that TikTok would actually be able

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Speaker 7: to prevail in a constitutional challenge. It's been timed up

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Speaker 7: considerably in order to prevail in any TikTok induced constitutional challenge,

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Speaker 7: which because they're surely going to go to court at

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Speaker 7: the same time, it's probably not going to take effect

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Speaker 7: for at least a year under the current legislative framework.

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Speaker 7: There's also an opportunity that this could be subject to

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Speaker 7: a filibuster by Senator Ran Paul, So you have it's

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Speaker 7: not a sure bet that it's going to breeze its

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Speaker 7: way out of the Senate.

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Speaker 4: Shortly, Okay, So there still could be fights ahead, whether

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Speaker 4: it's in the Senate or whether it's in the courts

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Speaker 4: moving forward. It does raise the question, though, Mark of

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Speaker 4: and we were just speaking with Mike about this. I'm

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Speaker 4: not sure if you heard him the master, but essentially

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Speaker 4: around the idea of the misinformation or disinformation that could

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Speaker 4: be making their way to to TikTok users as they

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Speaker 4: continue to use the platform in the run up to

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Speaker 4: the election. How concerned. Are you about what's happening in

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Speaker 4: real time, not what could happen a year from now

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Speaker 4: when it's time to either divestor or get banned.

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Speaker 7: I read the National Director for Intelligence twenty twenty two

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Speaker 7: report on the midterm elections. That report was probably one

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Speaker 7: of the most important triggers to get a ban on TikTok.

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Speaker 7: Why because the Director of National Intelligence report assessed that

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Speaker 7: byte Dance, the parent of TikTok, was conveying privacy information

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Speaker 7: back up to the Chinese government, and that the Chinese

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Speaker 7: government was tailoring the Byte Dance TikTok algorithms to interfere

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Speaker 7: in the twenty twenty two midterm election. They got away

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Speaker 7: with it, and if they got away with it in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty two, they're going to try to get away

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Speaker 7: with it in twenty twenty four. Its longest TikTok is

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Speaker 7: tied to by Dance, and the Director of National Intelligence

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Speaker 7: assesses that that continuation of Chinese government interference in our

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Speaker 7: election is going to remain unimpeded. I'm all in favor

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Speaker 7: of worrying every hour of every day until twenty the

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty four is election is over. With what by

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Speaker 7: Dance and TikTok are up to.

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Speaker 2: Well, we've got a lot to learn here. Obviously, there

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Speaker 2: are questions, Ambassador about the algorithm. Is it possible to

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Speaker 2: have a TikTok two point zero if Byte Dance is removed,

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Speaker 2: if the Chinese government is in fact removed, and there's

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Speaker 2: an American operator here, could it be the same product?

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Speaker 7: Yeah, Listen, algorithms are not necessarily limited by national boundaries.

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Speaker 7: I mean surely. Of course, the particular TikTok algorithm that

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Speaker 7: was developed by Bye Dance is proprietary. I don't know

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Speaker 7: whether the Chinese government and by Dance will permit at

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Speaker 7: the sale of those algorithms. They's insisted in any statement

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Speaker 7: that is made on this legislation that they will not

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Speaker 7: permit those algorithms to be conveyed to a private equity

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Speaker 7: firm that Steve Minuchin, the former Secretary of the Treasury,

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Speaker 7: has claimed that he wants to gather in order to

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Speaker 7: purchase TikTok. Can an alternative algorithm be produced in order

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Speaker 7: to substitute for the existing algorithm. Well, there may be

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Speaker 7: a TikTok disruption as a result. I do believe that

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Speaker 7: it's not going to be easy to replicate the proprietary

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Speaker 7: algorithm as quickly as some people may think.

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Speaker 4: All right, Ambassador, it's always great to have you here

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Speaker 4: on Balance of Power. Too short, but we hope you'll

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Speaker 4: be back soon. That's Ambassador, former US Ambassador to Morocco,

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Speaker 4: Mark Ginsberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Can

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on apocarp Rono with

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on

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Speaker 1: Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say

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Speaker 1: Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: Here in Washington, Joe, it does seem like there is

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Speaker 4: somewhat of an upbeat mood because something actually got done,

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Speaker 4: at least in one chamber of Congers. As we await

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Speaker 4: the second chamber of a second believe it to pass it.

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Speaker 4: But it took months and months and months for foreign

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Speaker 4: need to actually pass the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 6: But it has now done so well.

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Speaker 3: That's right.

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Speaker 2: We were told by the administration at the end of

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Speaker 2: last year that the window was closing in Ukraine. How

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Speaker 2: they have managed to get by to this extent is

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Speaker 2: frankly a mystery to a lot of folks. They've been

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Speaker 2: dug in in some cases waiting for artillery for weeks

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Speaker 2: on end. There was a unit we read about last

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Speaker 2: week in Politico have been waiting for a month for

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Speaker 2: shells to arrive, and now they are going to be

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Speaker 2: sent that way. The question is how quickly that can

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Speaker 2: be done. And again we'll be talking to Kelly Grico

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Speaker 2: about that coming up from the Stimpson Center, who was

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Speaker 2: with us recently Kaylee talking about the run up now

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Speaker 2: and be curious to hear her take now that it's

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Speaker 2: actually happened, as I am also curious to hear from

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Speaker 2: Jack Fitzpatrick, our appropriations expert, had a working weekend following

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Speaker 2: the ball here on four bills that are going to

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Speaker 2: be now stitched together into one and sent to the Senate.

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Speaker 2: All the while we're wondering what happens to the Speaker

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Speaker 2: of the House. He's at Bloomberg Government, Jack Fitzpatrick, Great

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Speaker 2: to see you. Probably feels like Wednesday or something to

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Speaker 2: you at this point. Mike Johnson has a couple of days.

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Speaker 2: I guess to breathe. When lawmakers return next week, is

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Speaker 2: there in fact going to be a motion to vacate

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Speaker 2: the lawmakers who have signed on to one seem to

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Speaker 2: think that they're going to force him to resign.

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Speaker 3: Why in the world would he do that.

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Speaker 8: I don't think he would. It does seem that Marjorie

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Speaker 8: Taylor Green is not backing down. She says that she's

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Speaker 8: going ahead with forcing a vote on this motion to vacate.

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Speaker 8: She's been tweeting about it. Yeah, it doesn't seem like

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Speaker 8: a major danger for Johnson. It's been a while now

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Speaker 8: that we've heard that there are Democrats who don't want

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Speaker 8: to see him ousted over allowing a vote on Ukraine Aid.

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Speaker 8: So there are a few hardline members who, certainly, unless

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Speaker 8: they back down, are going to force a vote. But

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Speaker 8: it's not as tough a situation for Johnson as it

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Speaker 8: was for McCarthy. I think there's some fatigue with the

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Speaker 8: palace intrigue and the politicking on the House floor that

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Speaker 8: dominated people's attention for so long, and Democrats don't want

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Speaker 8: to punish the speaker for allowing a vote on a

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Speaker 8: bill that they liked.

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Speaker 4: Well, we certainly have heard from Democrats on this very program,

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Speaker 4: Congressman Amibarrev California at Smith of Washington, who also expressed

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Speaker 4: that essentially that they think the speakers the right ada,

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Speaker 4: so why would they not protect him? So I guess

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Speaker 4: maybe that is why it will turn out differently for

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Speaker 4: Mike Johnson than Kevin McCarthy. I want to ask you, though,

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Speaker 4: just around this idea in the Senate, because we're all

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Speaker 4: kind of operating under this could happen quickly. It's going

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Speaker 4: to pass. Yeah, we know it's the US Senate, and

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Speaker 4: if you don't have unanimous consent, things can move slowly.

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Speaker 4: Any One one senator could be disruptive. Are we going

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Speaker 4: to face that potentially around amendment votes and the.

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Speaker 8: Like less than we normally would because congressional leadership was

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Speaker 8: on board and put things in the rule in the

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Speaker 8: House and package this in a way that kind of

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Speaker 8: expedites it. Usually it takes if you don't have unanimous consent,

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Speaker 8: and the Senate can take about a week to pass

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Speaker 8: something that's probably cut in half or even less. Because

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Speaker 8: they packaged this into a bill that had previously been

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Speaker 8: taken up in the Senate, there's no work to do

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Speaker 8: on the motion to proceed. I could talk for an

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Speaker 8: hour about the procedural aspect of this long story short.

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Speaker 8: If a lot of people want to slow this down.

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Speaker 8: It could be a thirty hour delay between voting to

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Speaker 8: limit debate and then passing it, but that's not nearly

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Speaker 8: as bad as if it could take a week, which

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Speaker 8: is usually what can happen. So they don't really need

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Speaker 8: unanimous congressional leadership worked together. So that this is going

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Speaker 8: to get the initial procedural vote tomorrow. It might be

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Speaker 8: late tomorrow, or it might take until Wednesday to actually

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Speaker 8: pass it. It's not entirely clear, but this is not

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Speaker 8: going to drag on throughout the week like Rand Paul

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Speaker 8: at one point had been threatened.

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Speaker 2: Safe to say, the majority of senators want to get

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Speaker 2: out of town and get their recess started. So what's

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Speaker 2: most likely at some point on Wednesday we wrap this up.

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Speaker 8: If not late Tuesday, it could be late Tuesday, it

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Speaker 8: could stretch into Wednesday. One person can still slow it down,

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Speaker 8: but if the if a lot of members don't want

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Speaker 8: to take up their time to debate, we're probably talking

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Speaker 8: much less than the thirty hour period, So either Tuesday

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Speaker 8: or Wednesday, and this does seem to clearly have the

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Speaker 8: votes they voted previously on a foreign aid package. Already,

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Speaker 8: This all fastest out seventy if I remember seventy for that,

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Speaker 8: so all of their's got more than three hundred votes

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Speaker 8: in the House, so it looks good in the Senate.

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Speaker 4: Could it lose some votes though, because the TikTok divest

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Speaker 4: sure dunvest or ban has been included.

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Speaker 8: That is one of the most interesting parts of this,

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Speaker 8: because the packaging of this was more about the political

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Speaker 8: question of do the hawks stand together, do the neo

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Speaker 8: conservatives stand together, and do some do what they want?

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Speaker 8: And this was sort of a hawkish packaging of things.

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Speaker 8: The TikTok band doesn't really have anything to do with

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Speaker 8: Ukraine Aid, but this came together as essentially a show

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Speaker 8: of political willpower by the Republican Hawks, the governing wing.

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Speaker 8: It all fit together politically, so I don't think that

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Speaker 8: would necessarily lose a lot of support in the Senate.

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Speaker 4: All right, Jack Fitzpatrick, who covers Congress for Bloomberg Government,

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Speaker 4: thank you so much. As always, certainly we're all going

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Speaker 4: to keep an eye on the Senate over the course

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Speaker 4: of the next day or two to see when this

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Speaker 4: thing actually can head to the President for a signature.

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Speaker 4: And we know the President of Ukraine certainly is waiting

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Speaker 4: for it. He talked this weekend on NBC's Meet the Press.

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Speaker 9: Here he is this eight will strength think we did.

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Speaker 7: Lose the initition, now have all the chance to stabilize

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Speaker 7: the situation and to.

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Speaker 1: Or take the initiative.

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Speaker 4: And we want to get more on how exactly this

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Speaker 4: will help Ukraine and how quickly with Kelly Gricos, she

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Speaker 4: a senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program

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Speaker 4: at the Stimson Center. Kelly, it's always great to have

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Speaker 4: you here on balance of power. What is your assessment

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Speaker 4: of just how fast this aid could change the situation

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Speaker 4: on the ground for Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: Well, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 10: I think, you know, I think there's two parts of

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Speaker 10: that answer, which is one, I think within a few days,

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Speaker 10: once it passes the Senate, certain critical things like artillery

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Speaker 10: can probably be delivered to Ukraine, though it might take

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Speaker 10: longer for Ukraine to distribute that within the country, and

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Speaker 10: then other systems that are state side will take longer

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Speaker 10: to be able to deliver again to Ukraine. But it will,

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Speaker 10: you know, it will be weeks to months probably before

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Speaker 10: it has a very significant effect.

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Speaker 2: That sounds like a painfully long wait if you're an

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Speaker 2: under resourced Ukrainian soldier in the field, Kelly, how much

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Speaker 2: of this will go to weapons or equipment that has yet.

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Speaker 3: To be made.

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Speaker 2: We've all been learning about the defense industrial base over

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Speaker 2: the course of this debate, and I know that much

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Speaker 2: of the weaponry still needs to be actually manufactured. So

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Speaker 2: will this be rolled out over the course of the

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Speaker 2: rest of this year, Yes.

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Speaker 10: I mean, this is exactly the challenge, right is that

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Speaker 10: there's funding, but you need to be able to buy something,

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Speaker 10: and a lot of these things have, as you said,

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Speaker 10: not been made. And many of these high valued systems

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Speaker 10: that are in low quantity, like patriot missiles, have also

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Speaker 10: been promised to other countries. So one of the issues

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Speaker 10: that needs to be addressed is where the priority is

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Speaker 10: going to be in terms of Ukraine, perhaps sending more

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Speaker 10: of those miss that were intended for others to Ukraine,

438
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Speaker 10: and that still needs to be worked out, so that's

439
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 10: certainly going to take time.

440
00:23:08,119 --> 00:23:10,359
Speaker 4: Well, and as we consider time, Kelly, it also raises

441
00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:12,920
Speaker 4: the question of how far sixty billion dollars in aid

442
00:23:12,960 --> 00:23:16,320
Speaker 4: goes into conflict like this before more aid might be

443
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 4: needed if there's no real end in sight, Is this

444
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:21,919
Speaker 4: money going to bring us closer to the end of

445
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,560
Speaker 4: this war or just prolong it further because it gives

446
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,720
Speaker 4: Ukraine longer to have a fighting chance.

447
00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:29,240
Speaker 7: Yeah.

448
00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 10: So this is really where I'm the most concerned because

449
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 10: I supported, you know, providing Ukraine with more aid, particularly

450
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 10: for artillery that it desperately needs in the United States

451
00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:40,399
Speaker 10: is able to provide. But I think you're asking the

452
00:23:40,480 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 10: right question, which is we need to start thinking really

453
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:46,000
Speaker 10: seriously about long term strategy here and pivoting from a

454
00:23:46,080 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 10: talk about liberating all Ukrainian territory and militarily defeating Russia

455
00:23:51,080 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 10: to how do we create a credible, sustainable defense for

456
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 10: Ukraine because this is a war of attrition and it's stillmated,

457
00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,680
Speaker 10: and bringing it to the negotiating table. It goes back

458
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 10: to what Mark Milly, General Mark Milly said about a

459
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,040
Speaker 10: year ago when he was still chairman and the chiefs

460
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 10: of the Joint Chief Staff, which is that this is

461
00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 10: a war that's going to end in negotiations, and so

462
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 10: we really need to start be thinking about what is

463
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 10: the strategy to get there.

464
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,919
Speaker 2: Well, that's offully important. Then a little more on that, Kelly,

465
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,879
Speaker 2: what would that look like? You just got sixty billion

466
00:24:23,960 --> 00:24:27,280
Speaker 2: dollars here, You've got a finite amount of time to

467
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,720
Speaker 2: work with it. How does Ukraine deploy that money in

468
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: a way that would in fact strengthen its hand at

469
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,880
Speaker 2: the negotiating table. I'm guessing that's a strategy of its own.

470
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,880
Speaker 2: Does it need to start punching through Russian lines? Does

471
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:43,600
Speaker 2: it take down the bridge to Crimea? Is there something

472
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:44,920
Speaker 2: specific that would help?

473
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,199
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think actually it really needs to focus on

474
00:24:48,280 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 10: defensive systems and defensive mortifications. So if you think about

475
00:24:52,440 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 10: when it Ukraine went it on its own conor offensive,

476
00:24:55,880 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 10: you know, which failed, it was partly because Russia had

477
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 10: devised really dense, thick defensive fortifications, so anti tank obstacles,

478
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 10: well defended trenches, and so Ukraine is starting to do that,

479
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 10: but it's months behind in its preparation. And I think

480
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 10: that's actually one of the areas where we could really

481
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 10: help is sending some of those some of that capability,

482
00:25:19,200 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 10: some of the you know, concrete, the construction equipment, not

483
00:25:23,200 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 10: just advance you know, missiles and artillery. And I think

484
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 10: though it really is about a long change, change shift

485
00:25:29,760 --> 00:25:33,240
Speaker 10: in perspective. You know, already as soon as it passed

486
00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 10: this bill passed, you started hearing, you know, talk about

487
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:40,159
Speaker 10: twenty twenty five, Ukraine returning to the Conor offensive, and

488
00:25:40,280 --> 00:25:42,640
Speaker 10: you know, we don't want to repeat Groundhog Day here

489
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 10: and waste sort of this capability going on a very

490
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:50,440
Speaker 10: costly Conor offensive that's unlikely to succeed. So I think

491
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,399
Speaker 10: it's coming to terms with the reality that Ukraine should

492
00:25:53,400 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 10: focus first and foremost on holding the territory that it has.

493
00:25:58,560 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 4: Well, Kelly, when we think about potential future counter offensive,

494
00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 4: it really just brings us back to the idea of

495
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:07,159
Speaker 4: the force that Ukraine is trying to counter, which is Russia.

496
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 4: How is Russia likely to respond knowing more assistance is

497
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 4: coming Ukraine's way, does it change what they will do

498
00:26:13,359 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 4: in real time in the interim and potentially make this

499
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 4: a more dangerous moment for Ukraine while they wait for

500
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 4: everything to arrive to them.

501
00:26:21,359 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean it's clear that Kremlin's not happy. They've

502
00:26:23,800 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 10: issued their usual kind of statements indicating indicating that it

503
00:26:28,520 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 10: does create a window for Moscow in terms of how

504
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,280
Speaker 10: it's thinking about launching an offensive which is expected a

505
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:36,640
Speaker 10: spring and summer, and that it might be thinking now

506
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 10: that it has a window of a few weeks to

507
00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 10: a few months to try to do that when Ukraine

508
00:26:42,040 --> 00:26:45,320
Speaker 10: is that it's maximum vulnerability, and that's possible. I don't

509
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 10: know though, if the Russians are really capable of being

510
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 10: that agile to speed things up. They haven't really shown

511
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 10: that during the course of the war. But I think

512
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,120
Speaker 10: the real issue here is that Russia thought its strategy

513
00:26:57,119 --> 00:27:00,000
Speaker 10: was that it could outlast Western support, including US support

514
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 10: work for Ukraine, and this is certainly sending a signal

515
00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:06,400
Speaker 10: that that strategy is not working. And so the hope

516
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,800
Speaker 10: I have is that there will be more pressure on

517
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:12,520
Speaker 10: both sides of this conflict to head to a negotiating table.

518
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 10: And there's supposed to be some kind of diploma diplomatic

519
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 10: effort in June in Switzerland, and I'd like to see

520
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,960
Speaker 10: both parties actually attending that and really working towards some

521
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 10: kind of settlement.

522
00:27:26,359 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 2: Spending time with Kelly Grico from the Stimpson Center. Following

523
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 2: the passage of Ukraine funding in the House and the

524
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 2: expected passage of Ukraine funding in the Senate, should Joe

525
00:27:37,359 --> 00:27:40,200
Speaker 2: Biden go back and I ask you that because morale

526
00:27:40,240 --> 00:27:43,480
Speaker 2: has been as much of an issue as equipment and

527
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:45,280
Speaker 2: materiel so of troops.

528
00:27:45,320 --> 00:27:48,960
Speaker 3: By the way, Kelly, in our remaining moment.

529
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:52,280
Speaker 2: I'd love for you to focus on that, whether or

530
00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 2: not the President should be there. Again, this does not

531
00:27:55,119 --> 00:27:58,400
Speaker 2: buy more manpower for Ukraine. What does it do about

532
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:02,440
Speaker 2: the issue of bodies on the battlefields?

533
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,919
Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day, this

534
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 10: is Ukraine's war and that includes manpower, as you suggest,

535
00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,959
Speaker 10: and Ukrainon took months trying to pass a bill to

536
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 10: lower the recruitment age. I don't think that Biden is

537
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,520
Speaker 10: actually all that important a visit from him in terms

538
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:22,320
Speaker 10: of morale. I think, you know, Ukraine has to do

539
00:28:22,359 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 10: that itself, and they have been very determined and that's

540
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 10: something I think for their leadership to work out.

541
00:28:29,040 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 3: It's great to have you back.

542
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: Kelly Stimpson Center, Senior fellow with the re Imagining US

543
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 2: Grand Strategy Program. Kelly Grico, thanks for joining as always

544
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,120
Speaker 2: here on Balance of Power. It's going to be pretty

545
00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 2: quick from here. It sure seems like after what we

546
00:28:42,160 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: just heard in the last ten minutes here, Kaylee, there's

547
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: going to be an agreement, likely on debate in the Senate.

548
00:28:46,400 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 2: This could be done tomorrow. We could be talking about

549
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 2: a law by Wednesday morning.

550
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:51,800
Speaker 4: Yeah. I guess if all the timing works out, and

551
00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:55,120
Speaker 4: President Biden would very likely give its signature to that

552
00:28:55,160 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 4: bill almost immediately after. We know that the President did

553
00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 4: speak with Vladimir's Lenski today underscore or the US's lasting

554
00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:05,120
Speaker 4: commitment to supporting Ukraine. But just because this past, Joe,

555
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 4: there is still the question of how much more lasting

556
00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 4: that commitment will be as this conflict potentially goes on

557
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 4: well into the future.

558
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 2: That's for sure, and it sounds like the narrative is

559
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 2: going to be very quickly coalescing around an endgame. Here

560
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 2: the negotiating table and how this money can help them

561
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 2: get there. With Kaylee Lines, I'm Joe Matthew the Panels, Next,

562
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 2: I'm Bloomberg.

563
00:29:25,720 --> 00:29:29,240
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

564
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, CarPlay, and

565
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:34,960
Speaker 1: then roud Otto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on

566
00:29:35,040 --> 00:29:38,240
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live

567
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: on YouTube.

568
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,240
Speaker 4: Kaylee Lines and Joe Matthew are here in Washington checking

569
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 4: on whether Marjorie Taylor Green seems to have changed her

570
00:29:46,640 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 4: mind yet about whether she thinks Mike Johnson should keep

571
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 4: his job as House speaker well as of an hour ago, Joe,

572
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 4: it does not seem so. Her latest post on X

573
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 4: Mike Johnson still hasn't shown Congress or the American people

574
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 4: the proof that Russian tends to invade the rest of

575
00:30:00,800 --> 00:30:03,640
Speaker 4: Europe after finishing its campaign in Ukraine. It goes on

576
00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 4: for a few more sentences and ends with we need

577
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:08,760
Speaker 4: a new speaker to exclamation points.

578
00:30:08,840 --> 00:30:09,160
Speaker 3: Okay.

579
00:30:09,560 --> 00:30:12,040
Speaker 2: The refrain though over the weekend from Marjorie Tayler Green

580
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:16,160
Speaker 2: Tom Massey is that they wanted him to resign, that

581
00:30:16,240 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: they would ratchet up the pressure until Mike Johnson had

582
00:30:19,320 --> 00:30:22,200
Speaker 2: no other option but to leave on his own. And

583
00:30:22,240 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 2: of course, Kaylee, he already articulated last week the words

584
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 2: I will not resign, leading us to doubt that as

585
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 2: a viable option. But they could pull the trigger on this.

586
00:30:35,160 --> 00:30:38,000
Speaker 2: He could still lose his job, and so we may

587
00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:39,360
Speaker 2: as well dive in there with the panel.

588
00:30:39,400 --> 00:30:40,240
Speaker 4: Right sounds good.

589
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:43,680
Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano are with us Bloomberg Politics contributors.

590
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:46,400
Speaker 2: I have to apologize to both of you in advance.

591
00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,240
Speaker 2: I really don't want to do this to you every day,

592
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:50,840
Speaker 2: but it's hanging out there. Genie, what are we going

593
00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:53,560
Speaker 2: to do about the motion to vacate or should Mike

594
00:30:53,640 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 2: Johnson resign? That does seem to be with the three

595
00:30:56,200 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 2: Republicans who have their name on this believe. All the while,

596
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,800
Speaker 2: some are arguing he's more powerful now that he got

597
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:04,640
Speaker 2: these bill passed.

598
00:31:04,640 --> 00:31:05,240
Speaker 3: What do you think?

599
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 9: Yeah, he seems to have found the secret sauce, which is,

600
00:31:09,080 --> 00:31:12,880
Speaker 9: you know, one hundred percent Democrats, fifty percent or so Republicans,

601
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 9: and he can pretty much pass anything there. You know,

602
00:31:16,480 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 9: I think it's probably not what the Marjorie Taylor Greens

603
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:21,800
Speaker 9: of the world want to hear, but you know, I

604
00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,800
Speaker 9: think as it pertains to his job number one, who

605
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 9: wants it? Number two? You know, I think he's probably

606
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 9: safe until November. It depends obviously on what happens in

607
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,640
Speaker 9: the election, and I've never thought he had a real

608
00:31:34,680 --> 00:31:37,040
Speaker 9: shot at keeping the job next year. I in fact

609
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 9: think that's more likely now than I did before. But

610
00:31:39,720 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 9: I think for the moment he's probably safe. That doesn't

611
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 9: mean she can't move forward on the motion to vacate,

612
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 9: but I think we're hearing enough Democrats who would be

613
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:51,400
Speaker 9: there to support him, and that would keep him safe

614
00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 9: at least until probably November.

615
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 7: Rick.

616
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 4: When we think about Mike Johnson staying safe, especially if

617
00:31:58,600 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 4: the cost of staying safe is having Democrats step in

618
00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,240
Speaker 4: to help you, Is he safe with no real power.

619
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 4: You keep the gavel, but your ability to wield it

620
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 4: for your own purposes is kind of not really there

621
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 4: because you need Democrats to do anything. In your own

622
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 4: party has members that really would not like you to

623
00:32:14,160 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 4: be in the job. I just wonder how we think

624
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:20,480
Speaker 4: about what's safe is for Mike Johnson, Well, there's.

625
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 11: Really nothing safe about ever being a speaker. So the

626
00:32:23,040 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 11: whole concept of safety is not really relevant to politics

627
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 11: in general because you never know what shifting alliances are

628
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 11: going to occur. And in the course, you know, in

629
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,120
Speaker 11: this day and age, when you have such a divided

630
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 11: country that's extremely well represented in almost a completely divided

631
00:32:38,480 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 11: House of Representatives, you know, there's no place to hide,

632
00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 11: there's no safe place.

633
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 1: And so I think that the band aid has been

634
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:46,480
Speaker 1: ripped off.

635
00:32:46,520 --> 00:32:49,720
Speaker 11: I mean, you know, we now have a coalition government

636
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:53,000
Speaker 11: in the House of Representatives, and that coalition government will

637
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 11: probably stick together between now and the election because there's

638
00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,240
Speaker 11: nothing new to happen, right, they can just band together

639
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 11: and pass whatever they want. Frankly, the things that would

640
00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 11: get past probably fine ready acceptance with the President and

641
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 11: with the Senate, so they could actually be a more

642
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 11: productive House of Representatives between now and election day, even

643
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 11: when usually that's when people shut down and they go

644
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 11: home into a campaign. So it's an odd, upside down

645
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 11: world we live in, and it's currently being well represented

646
00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:25,360
Speaker 11: by the House. So my guess is there's no fear

647
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 11: at all of Marjorie Taylor Green. This motion to vacate

648
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 11: will be tabled almost immediately, and so the idea that

649
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:38,960
Speaker 11: they have any leverage over Mike Johnson is a fantasy.

650
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,080
Speaker 11: So I think we're going to see the rest of

651
00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 11: this Congress be a bipartisan year in the House of Representatives.

652
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 11: Certainly not where we thought when we started this year.

653
00:33:48,960 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 2: Well, god knows it's not. Then, Genie, is there a

654
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 2: way for Joe Biden to leverage a so called coalition

655
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 2: government here on Capitol Hill to maybe sneak something through

656
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 2: in a campaign year that could make a difference beyond

657
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:04,040
Speaker 2: what's just happened.

658
00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 9: Yeah, you know, I don't know that I would believe

659
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 9: that in a Congress which has passed what sixty nine

660
00:34:10,920 --> 00:34:13,799
Speaker 9: or so bills, what are the lowest in history that

661
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,200
Speaker 9: in you know, months before an election, the president of

662
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 9: the opposition party could pass through much. I mean, it's possible.

663
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 9: But I think Joe Biden has got to be very

664
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:28,280
Speaker 9: happy with what happened over the weekend and quite frankly,

665
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 9: what he has been able to accomplish in this Congress,

666
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 9: because it has been you know, I think against all

667
00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 9: odds that he has gotten through what he's gotten through.

668
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 9: So he's got to be happy. He's moving on the

669
00:34:39,800 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 9: campaign trail. You know. I do think we may see

670
00:34:43,080 --> 00:34:46,080
Speaker 9: a little, you know, a little dust up in the

671
00:34:46,120 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 9: Senate with some of this, you know, as they move forward.

672
00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 9: I think they're going to move quickly on this. But

673
00:34:50,960 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 9: I think it's fascinating people like Mike Lee trying to

674
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:58,520
Speaker 9: force an amendment that ensures that Ukraine pays back this money.

675
00:34:58,560 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 9: I mean, the of parts of this that we're hearing,

676
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 9: there's not just you know, inter party fighting in the House.

677
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:08,759
Speaker 9: It's also in the Senate. You know, you look at

678
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 9: jd Vance and Lindsey Graham. So I think there may

679
00:35:12,239 --> 00:35:14,759
Speaker 9: be a little conversation there in the next twenty four

680
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 9: hours or so, but they want to get out this weekend,

681
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:19,000
Speaker 9: so I think they're going to I mean this week

682
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 9: rather so I think they're going to pass this pretty

683
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:22,440
Speaker 9: quickly if they can.

684
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:24,200
Speaker 1: Yeah.

685
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 4: I guess the difference, maybe Rick, would be that in

686
00:35:27,160 --> 00:35:30,439
Speaker 4: the Senate, the Republican infighting is in the minority, where

687
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 4: you didn't have the much power anyway, versus in the

688
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,920
Speaker 4: House it's in the majority, which has rendered the majority

689
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 4: a little less useful perhaps than a typical majority would be.

690
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 4: I just wonder, given everything we've seen and what you

691
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 4: were just speaking to, the idea that something did pass

692
00:35:44,840 --> 00:35:46,880
Speaker 4: it was in a bipartisan way, which probably is what

693
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 4: the majority of the American people would like to see.

694
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 4: Have the Republicans improved their odds of being able to

695
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 4: retain the House in November, especially if we don't see

696
00:35:55,600 --> 00:35:58,799
Speaker 4: another chaotic go around for a new speaker because Mike

697
00:35:58,880 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 4: Johnson gets kicked out.

698
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:04,319
Speaker 11: Yeah, last first, Yes, I think this last week has

699
00:36:04,400 --> 00:36:07,800
Speaker 11: been a step in the right direction for members, especially

700
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,759
Speaker 11: in the more swing districts, who can go back and say, hey,

701
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,280
Speaker 11: I got Ukraine funding, I got funding for our allies

702
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,680
Speaker 11: in Asia and the Middle East, and there'll be some

703
00:36:18,040 --> 00:36:20,960
Speaker 11: explaining to do about the TikTok ban, But other than that,

704
00:36:21,040 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 11: I think that The reality is this is this is

705
00:36:23,719 --> 00:36:26,719
Speaker 11: actually going to be helpful to Republican members going home.

706
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:29,799
Speaker 11: And it's not that it's not helpful to Democrats, but

707
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:33,120
Speaker 11: I think it's a good incumbency racket to have passed

708
00:36:33,160 --> 00:36:35,720
Speaker 11: this bill. I think that's why you saw so many

709
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:39,640
Speaker 11: members of Congress being for this, because it's good politics

710
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 11: and it's good for the country. That being said, I mean,

711
00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:44,359
Speaker 11: I think we have to get away from this whole

712
00:36:44,400 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 11: idea that anybody in the House has leverage. It's going

713
00:36:47,200 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 11: to be you know, sort of like you know, whatever

714
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:53,280
Speaker 11: coalition you can bring to bear, and with one vote

715
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:57,680
Speaker 11: margin of majority, the concept of a majority is kind

716
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 11: of thrown out the window. So getting things unlike the

717
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:03,839
Speaker 11: Farm Bill and the Faay author these are big things, right,

718
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 11: I mean, that have been steimy. You couldn't even get

719
00:37:06,280 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 11: a rule for any of this stuff in the past.

720
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 11: Now you're going to have Democrats in the Rules Committee

721
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:14,280
Speaker 11: voting regularly to get things out. Now that they've gotten

722
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:18,120
Speaker 11: done once, why not do it more often? So I

723
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 11: think it's completely changes a dynamic in the House of Representations.

724
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 11: It's like a different chamber now than it was a

725
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:28,560
Speaker 11: week ago. And maybe for the positives for American taxpayers.

726
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,720
Speaker 2: It's a different chamber. I'm gonna have to start watching

727
00:37:31,760 --> 00:37:35,000
Speaker 2: these Rules Committee hearings to see what Chip Royd does

728
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 2: in the face of this coalition government.

729
00:37:37,840 --> 00:37:38,160
Speaker 3: Genie.

730
00:37:38,239 --> 00:37:41,239
Speaker 2: Lastly, Joe Biden is talking about Earth day to day,

731
00:37:41,360 --> 00:37:43,399
Speaker 2: is going to be campaigning again this week while Donald

732
00:37:43,440 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 2: Trump is in.

733
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:45,200
Speaker 3: And out of court.

734
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 2: I presume it helps him from the making good on

735
00:37:49,040 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 2: promises file here to say that we are standing by

736
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 2: our allies. I got this across the finish line. Is

737
00:37:55,120 --> 00:37:57,479
Speaker 2: that enough to make up for all the young people

738
00:37:57,480 --> 00:37:59,360
Speaker 2: who are going to be angry with him and with

739
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 2: Democrats about TikTok?

740
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 9: You know, I don't know if it's enough to make

741
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 9: up for it. And I think the anger amongst young

742
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,360
Speaker 9: people room we see it just in you know, the

743
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 9: NBC poll out, I think it was yesterday. It's a

744
00:38:13,000 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 9: big problem for him, and the biggest challenge there has

745
00:38:16,040 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 9: to do with what's going on in Israel. So, you know,

746
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 9: I'm not sure the passage of this bill helps him

747
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:25,000
Speaker 9: with that constituency. And it's something he really needs to

748
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 9: work on because the numbers are really problematic as it

749
00:38:29,120 --> 00:38:33,640
Speaker 9: pertains to enthusiasm amongst that group, and so you know,

750
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,839
Speaker 9: he can talk about this success, but I'm not sure

751
00:38:36,880 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 9: it's a message he would want to take to college campuses.

752
00:38:39,680 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 9: Quite frankly at this.

753
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:46,320
Speaker 4: Point, all right, Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzeno, our Bloomberg

754
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,319
Speaker 4: Politics contributors, thank you very much. And of course, Joe

755
00:38:49,360 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 4: college campuses is where we see kind of an overlap

756
00:38:51,920 --> 00:38:53,959
Speaker 4: in this Van diagram in many ways. On the one hand,

757
00:38:54,040 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 4: you have a lot of people who are getting news

758
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 4: and information from TikTok. There has been a lot of

759
00:38:57,719 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 4: conversation as to whether or not there is a pro

760
00:38:59,560 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 4: palace to me and bent in some of that content

761
00:39:01,960 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 4: they will see. And of course you're seeing what we're

762
00:39:04,080 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 4: seeing at Columbia, where they've had to move classes online

763
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 4: because of the goings on of the last several days.

764
00:39:09,400 --> 00:39:11,440
Speaker 2: And again the White House stepping in to get them

765
00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 2: what's happening on a college campus. It's pretty remarkable what's

766
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 2: happening there. Whether TikTok ends up being banned, though you know,

767
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,680
Speaker 2: this may not be answered even during this campaign cycle,

768
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 2: if we enter this protracted legal challenge that we're hearing about.

769
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:28,080
Speaker 2: By the way, Bloomberg Intelligence, we love talking to the

770
00:39:28,120 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 2: analysts of b I about they're running odds on this, Kayley, Yeah,

771
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: and they say seventy percent odds. The government wins a

772
00:39:35,520 --> 00:39:39,120
Speaker 2: legal challenge by TikTok that it will in fact go

773
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 2: through the legislature.

774
00:39:40,320 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 4: And the courts well, and then it becomes a question

775
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 4: what does TikTok do then, or specifically, what does byte

776
00:39:45,480 --> 00:39:47,719
Speaker 4: Edance do. Do they agree then to the divestiture or

777
00:39:47,760 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 4: do they hold onto the algorithm though, which would make

778
00:39:50,280 --> 00:39:52,000
Speaker 4: maybe the whole thing worth a lot less than it

779
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:54,840
Speaker 4: would be otherwise. There are so many remaining questions and

780
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 4: we're going to be digging a lot more into this.

781
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:03,320
Speaker 1: Listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens just

782
00:40:03,440 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay and enroun Oo

783
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,720
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business Ad. You can also listen live

784
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,000
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

785
00:40:13,080 --> 00:40:16,960
Speaker 1: Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

786
00:40:17,920 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 2: As we get ourselves back to business on a Monday,

787
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: Welcome to Balance of Power on the radio, on the

788
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:26,880
Speaker 2: satellite and on YouTube. Amazing what can happen if we

789
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 2: put our minds to it. A busy weekend in the

790
00:40:29,560 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 2: House of Representatives.

791
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:31,560
Speaker 3: It was so busy.

792
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,560
Speaker 2: It might be in the end of the speakership, depending

793
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 2: on who you ask. But they're pretty happy in Ukraine

794
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: because the money is coming. We still have to go

795
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:40,880
Speaker 2: through the Senate and the President's got to sign it,

796
00:40:40,880 --> 00:40:42,800
Speaker 2: but all of that appears to be a kind of

797
00:40:42,840 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 2: the easy part here. Getting through the House was the

798
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 2: tough one. Aid for Ukraine while you were enjoying your

799
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: weekend passes three eleven to one twelve, Aid for Israel

800
00:40:54,960 --> 00:40:59,319
Speaker 2: three sixty six to fifty eight. Tomorrow is when they

801
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 2: get to it in the Senate. The President's waiting to

802
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:02,839
Speaker 2: intercept this. By the way, they're going to fast track

803
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 2: this thing in the Senate because they're already over time

804
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:06,760
Speaker 2: on starting their recess.

805
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,080
Speaker 3: And that's gonna work, of course for everybody.

806
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 2: And then they'll come back for the White House Correspondences dinner, presumably,

807
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:15,160
Speaker 2: or at least those who get invited. Tom Massey, who

808
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 2: signed onto the motion to vacate along with Marjorie Taylor Green,

809
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 2: these were the original two. Like Marjorie Taylor Green, he

810
00:41:24,680 --> 00:41:30,880
Speaker 2: is now calling for the resignation of Mike Johnson. But

811
00:41:30,960 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 2: if it comes to it, he says, a vote will

812
00:41:33,680 --> 00:41:37,680
Speaker 2: be called referring to the MTV, and it is unclear today.

813
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 2: Of course, they're all gone now on recess. What's going

814
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:42,279
Speaker 2: to happen when they come back, or if maybe Mike

815
00:41:42,360 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 2: Johnson is suddenly a made man because he's got Democrats

816
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 2: on his side at least at the moment. Kate Accley

817
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 2: will help us with all of this. She was covering

818
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,719
Speaker 2: it over the weekend. Spoke with her on Friday going

819
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,680
Speaker 2: into the votes, and she's with us now from Bloomberg Government. Kate,

820
00:41:56,719 --> 00:42:00,040
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Does Mike Johnson have to

821
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 2: worry this morning or does he know that the other

822
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 2: party will be there for him?

823
00:42:04,920 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 12: I don't know if he can know that the other

824
00:42:06,840 --> 00:42:09,399
Speaker 12: party is going to be there for him. He has

825
00:42:09,440 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 12: shored up a lot of support even among his own

826
00:42:12,760 --> 00:42:17,000
Speaker 12: you know, Republicans. He has, you know, gotten this Ukraine Aid,

827
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 12: Israel Aid. Also that TikTok bill all that they cleared

828
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 12: that all on Saturday and sent it as a you know,

829
00:42:24,640 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 12: sort of bundled it up in a package, sent it

830
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:29,319
Speaker 12: over to the Senate and the Senate is poised to

831
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 12: move on it this week. It looks like that's going

832
00:42:31,320 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 12: to get to the President's desk, you know, this week,

833
00:42:34,880 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 12: so you know, definitely he has done the things that

834
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 12: people like Marjorie Taylor Green said, you know, if you

835
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 12: do this, we're it's going to trigger this this motion

836
00:42:46,880 --> 00:42:50,279
Speaker 12: to vacate, you know. I mean there are a lot

837
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:53,040
Speaker 12: of people who were acting like you know, last Thursday

838
00:42:53,080 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 12: Friday that Mike Johnson was, you know, essentially kind of

839
00:42:56,880 --> 00:42:59,520
Speaker 12: a dead speaker walking, if you will. Who now think

840
00:42:59,600 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 12: he has more support, including from Democrats. You know, it's

841
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 12: really hard to predict how this will all shake out.

842
00:43:08,520 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 12: I mean, how long is he going to be speaker?

843
00:43:11,320 --> 00:43:16,120
Speaker 12: Who knows? Because you know, after the November elections, Republicans

844
00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 12: could lose the House anyway and then there's no Republican

845
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 12: speaker at all. So it's not maybe like he has

846
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 12: real long term job security, if you will. It's that

847
00:43:26,120 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 12: kind of job. But he's going to laugh through this

848
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:30,680
Speaker 12: week because they're in recess.

849
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,640
Speaker 2: That's right, He's at least got a week to think

850
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:39,600
Speaker 2: about things. Kate, we should talk about what was actually

851
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,760
Speaker 2: accomplished here. It's not just funding for Ukraine and Israel,

852
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:46,080
Speaker 2: both of which were controversial in their respective quarters, but

853
00:43:46,239 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 2: TikTok passed.

854
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,120
Speaker 3: Divest or ban, and it's going to the Senate.

855
00:43:50,160 --> 00:43:53,120
Speaker 2: Now, that was something that we thought would fail in

856
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,680
Speaker 2: the Senate if it ever got a vote. Now senators

857
00:43:55,680 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 2: are faced with a choice. If you don't like TikTok,

858
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,760
Speaker 2: that means you have to vot against Israel in Ukraine.

859
00:44:02,280 --> 00:44:06,080
Speaker 2: So this is seen as a done deal here. Correct,

860
00:44:06,200 --> 00:44:09,440
Speaker 2: all of this in one piece should pass the Senate,

861
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:11,760
Speaker 2: assuming they can have a deal to end debate.

862
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:16,120
Speaker 12: Yes, I exactly. I mean this. We thought that the

863
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:19,120
Speaker 12: TikTok measure was going to at least be very slowed

864
00:44:19,200 --> 00:44:22,560
Speaker 12: down in the Senate, if not completely stopped. This has

865
00:44:22,600 --> 00:44:25,560
Speaker 12: a little bit of a change. It gives a longer time,

866
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,719
Speaker 12: you know, the I think the initial bill was like

867
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 12: six months where TikTok would have to divest from Byte Dance.

868
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:36,400
Speaker 12: It's uh, you know, for an owned parent company. This

869
00:44:36,480 --> 00:44:40,480
Speaker 12: gives a little bit more time potentially. TikTok has been

870
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 12: saying and you know, as Bloomberg has been reporting that

871
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 12: it will you know, TikTok Byte Dance will fight this

872
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 12: if this is enacted, we'll fit it in the courts

873
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:56,319
Speaker 12: saying that it, you know, is not legal constitutional. So

874
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 12: it's maybe not the end here, but this is a

875
00:44:59,280 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 12: huge setback for TikTok.

876
00:45:03,360 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 2: Kind of amazing. You specialize in covering lobbyist money, Kate.

877
00:45:08,160 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 2: Is this going to be another free for all? Is

878
00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 2: there anything lobbyists can do at this point? Or is

879
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:13,520
Speaker 2: it all in the courts?

880
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:19,719
Speaker 12: I mean people, usually companies usually will have a strategy

881
00:45:19,760 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 12: in tandem courts, you know, litigation, lobbying, you know, anything

882
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,600
Speaker 12: you can signal, even if you get just a bill

883
00:45:26,680 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 12: introduced on something or or you know, get members of

884
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 12: Congress to talk about something that can certainly help help

885
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 12: with a court case. So these are often things that

886
00:45:37,560 --> 00:45:40,560
Speaker 12: go in tandem. I don't think that TikTok would abandon

887
00:45:40,719 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 12: a congressional strategy, a legislative strategy and just only pursue,

888
00:45:45,800 --> 00:45:50,440
Speaker 12: you know, a litigation strategy. But it certainly looks like

889
00:45:50,800 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 12: unless something and I don't think it's going to happen,

890
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 12: I mean, something really changed dramatically that this TikTok ban

891
00:45:57,120 --> 00:45:59,760
Speaker 12: or divest bill does look like it's on the fast

892
00:45:59,760 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 12: track this week.

893
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,040
Speaker 3: There you have, Kate Accley. It's great to see you, Kate.

894
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 2: I hope you didn't work the entire weekend, but good

895
00:46:07,360 --> 00:46:08,959
Speaker 2: to have you with us. Here on balance of power

896
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:12,680
Speaker 2: reporting for Bloomberg government passing the House, we're now waiting

897
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 2: on the Senate, and then of course the President probably

898
00:46:15,080 --> 00:46:17,520
Speaker 2: won't be able to sign this fast enough when that

899
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:19,360
Speaker 2: likely happens. But I want to get back to the

900
00:46:19,400 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 2: matter of the Speaker, Mike Johnson, who's got, as we

901
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:26,560
Speaker 2: have already indicated, some time to think about things, and

902
00:46:26,640 --> 00:46:31,200
Speaker 2: so do the three Republican lawmakers who have filed this

903
00:46:31,280 --> 00:46:34,160
Speaker 2: motion to vacate that, by the way, is still not privileged.

904
00:46:34,200 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 2: This is still just a threat hanging over his head,

905
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:41,239
Speaker 2: and it's an important thing to remember here knowing that

906
00:46:41,400 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 2: this could in fact be a.

907
00:46:43,080 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 3: Problem for Mike Johnson when he returns.

908
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller knows what it's like to work in

909
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,279
Speaker 2: the Speaker's office and the many complexities that come with this,

910
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 2: particularly in this case for someone with no experience in

911
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,919
Speaker 2: the higher echelons of leadership. She was, also, of course,

912
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 2: here's communications director for the RNC, and she's host of

913
00:47:03,080 --> 00:47:06,440
Speaker 2: the Friday Reporter podcast. Now, Lisa Kamusa Miller, great to

914
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: see you. You have a sense of what Mike Johnson

915
00:47:09,200 --> 00:47:11,959
Speaker 2: is facing. Do you believe the threat? Because I feel

916
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:15,240
Speaker 2: like I could ask you today fairly, is he weaker

917
00:47:15,480 --> 00:47:18,840
Speaker 2: or more strengthened by what happened over the weekend.

918
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,359
Speaker 6: So I am really amazed at how much he has

919
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 6: come to accomplish. I feel like I'm in the camp

920
00:47:26,120 --> 00:47:28,160
Speaker 6: that he is stronger today than he has ever been.

921
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:31,400
Speaker 6: I know that there are these outside threats that have

922
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:34,440
Speaker 6: been offered, but can you imagine how politically unpopular it

923
00:47:34,480 --> 00:47:37,440
Speaker 6: would be for the Republicans in the House to now

924
00:47:37,560 --> 00:47:40,799
Speaker 6: go back through try to remove the Speaker again and

925
00:47:40,920 --> 00:47:45,000
Speaker 6: have another fight for another leader just six months before

926
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:48,520
Speaker 6: election day. I can think of nothing less popular to do.

927
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:52,360
Speaker 6: And this package of legislation that will now go to

928
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 6: the Senate is in support of our allies and a

929
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 6: vote against our enemies, which is China, which ultimately is

930
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,520
Speaker 6: the fight that we're having over TikTok. And the Speaker

931
00:48:02,560 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 6: did it in a way where he did it over

932
00:48:04,520 --> 00:48:08,440
Speaker 6: with coalition, like a coalition of bipartisanship, in a way

933
00:48:08,480 --> 00:48:11,680
Speaker 6: that has not happened. It to me is one of

934
00:48:11,719 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 6: those things where he is showing signs of leadership in

935
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 6: the absence of leadership in a place that is very

936
00:48:18,960 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 6: difficult to govern right now, and so to me. It

937
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:25,319
Speaker 6: just feels like everything he has promised to do has

938
00:48:25,360 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 6: been delivered and delivered in a way that while it's

939
00:48:27,520 --> 00:48:32,600
Speaker 6: been slower, everybody knows that the House Republican Conference has

940
00:48:32,600 --> 00:48:35,640
Speaker 6: been incredibly difficult to govern, and he's done it in

941
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:37,880
Speaker 6: a way that I think a lot to be lauded

942
00:48:37,880 --> 00:48:39,440
Speaker 6: and people ought to be proud of.

943
00:48:41,280 --> 00:48:43,920
Speaker 2: The Thing is that very coalition you talk about is

944
00:48:44,160 --> 00:48:47,640
Speaker 2: why Marjorie Taylor Green wants him to be gone. They

945
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 2: don't want a Republican speaker who's working with Democrats. I

946
00:48:52,719 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 2: think it was Andy Biggs, forgive me if I'm getting

947
00:48:56,239 --> 00:49:00,960
Speaker 2: the wrong Freedom Caucus member here, who referred to essentially

948
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:06,239
Speaker 2: a coalition government last week. If Democrats protect him in

949
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 2: emotion to vacate, could that in fact be as undoing

950
00:49:09,840 --> 00:49:12,200
Speaker 2: when it comes to perception within his own conference.

951
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:19,200
Speaker 6: Perhaps, But there's also a risk that this small faction

952
00:49:19,440 --> 00:49:23,040
Speaker 6: of unhappy all the time Republican members of the Conference

953
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:28,160
Speaker 6: could also find themselves with Congressman Jeffries leader Jeffries as

954
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:30,680
Speaker 6: their speaker, which would really be unpopular for them to

955
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,759
Speaker 6: So there's all kinds of factions that are in place here, Joe,

956
00:49:33,840 --> 00:49:37,319
Speaker 6: all kinds of small things that are happening. It surprises

957
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 6: me how much power this small coalition of Freedom Conference

958
00:49:42,520 --> 00:49:48,440
Speaker 6: folks have over the overall Republican Conference. So to me,

959
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:51,400
Speaker 6: it feels as if if governing is the priority of

960
00:49:51,440 --> 00:49:54,000
Speaker 6: the House of Representatives, then it's in the best interest

961
00:49:54,080 --> 00:49:56,399
Speaker 6: of the Republicans and the Democrats to keep things as

962
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:59,000
Speaker 6: they are so that we can keep proceeding and go

963
00:49:59,080 --> 00:50:03,439
Speaker 6: home in November and celebrate the wins that we've had.

964
00:50:03,560 --> 00:50:06,520
Speaker 6: Republicans and Democrats will obviously celebrate those wins, but if

965
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 6: Republicans continue to meddle with progress in government, it will

966
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:13,520
Speaker 6: be detrimental to their success in November.

967
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,160
Speaker 2: I want you to bring us inside the Speaker's office here, Lisa.

968
00:50:17,239 --> 00:50:22,239
Speaker 2: You worked for Speaker Dennis Hastard, and I recall a

969
00:50:22,280 --> 00:50:25,479
Speaker 2: tweet by Tom Massey last week in which he said

970
00:50:25,520 --> 00:50:31,799
Speaker 2: the Speaker now shares procedural power with the Democrats. How

971
00:50:31,840 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 2: do you take that line, because you know what it's

972
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 2: like to sit in the Speaker's office and strategize and

973
00:50:38,880 --> 00:50:43,520
Speaker 2: talk about whipping votes and moving an agenda here. Does

974
00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:46,600
Speaker 2: Hakim Jeffries actually play a role in that starting now?

975
00:50:48,920 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 6: I'm not so sure about that. I do think though,

976
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 6: that we are governing with one seat majority. That is

977
00:50:55,000 --> 00:50:57,120
Speaker 6: very different from the time when I was in the majority.

978
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:59,880
Speaker 6: We had a wide berth. We had an opportunity where

979
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:03,239
Speaker 6: folks could make a little bit more of a personal

980
00:51:03,320 --> 00:51:08,720
Speaker 6: to their own district decisions while also voting almost always

981
00:51:08,719 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 6: with the leadership. Nowadays, we're in a place where if

982
00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:15,240
Speaker 6: we expect to keep our allies close and support folks

983
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:19,480
Speaker 6: like Israel and Ukraine and make decisions about how not

984
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:23,200
Speaker 6: to do business with China, we are very much going

985
00:51:23,239 --> 00:51:25,719
Speaker 6: to have to work with others on the other side

986
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 6: of the aisle, regardless of our differences in policies, because

987
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:30,719
Speaker 6: some of these policies, as much as we want to

988
00:51:31,160 --> 00:51:34,400
Speaker 6: play politics all the time, are more about country than

989
00:51:34,440 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 6: they are about party. And that to me, even though

990
00:51:37,520 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 6: it's making some of these hardliners very unhappy, it is

991
00:51:40,719 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 6: definitely still to me a way to govern and lead.

992
00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:46,920
Speaker 6: And that's when I was in leadership, that's what we

993
00:51:46,920 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 6: were looking to do show leadership. In fact, Speaker Aster

994
00:51:49,960 --> 00:51:51,880
Speaker 6: used to say he is a speaker for the entire

995
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:55,000
Speaker 6: House of Representatives. He was elected by his peers, but

996
00:51:55,080 --> 00:51:57,120
Speaker 6: he was elected to lead, and that to me is

997
00:51:57,160 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 6: something that I'm seeing in this speaker in an unconventional way. Sure, yeah,

998
00:52:01,480 --> 00:52:03,279
Speaker 6: he's got to work with Democrats. Does he want to

999
00:52:03,280 --> 00:52:05,319
Speaker 6: do it? Probably no? But does he want to govern?

1000
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:07,480
Speaker 6: Does he want to be perceived as someone who can

1001
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:11,440
Speaker 6: work and make change? I think that's absolutely his priority.

1002
00:52:12,440 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 2: Well, so what does he do with this moment, then, Lisa,

1003
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,600
Speaker 2: or what can he do? Because every time he walks

1004
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:20,239
Speaker 2: around a corner, Donald Trump is going to be standing there.

1005
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 2: And I think we can argue that Donald Trump helped

1006
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: him survive last week, giving him cover after he went

1007
00:52:26,080 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 2: to mar A Lago, and he's trying to keep things

1008
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:31,399
Speaker 2: together here to avoid a speaker battle, knowing that that

1009
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 2: could be a problem for Republicans up and down the ticket,

1010
00:52:35,640 --> 00:52:37,560
Speaker 2: all the way up to the top of the ticket

1011
00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 2: in his case. Is Mike Johnson capable of doing anything

1012
00:52:42,040 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 2: to coalesce around a certain group and actually activate an

1013
00:52:45,680 --> 00:52:47,880
Speaker 2: agenda here or is he just waiting for the phone

1014
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:49,280
Speaker 2: to ring from mar A Lago?

1015
00:52:50,440 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 6: Well, I think it's hard to say. I think Donald Trump,

1016
00:52:52,480 --> 00:52:54,520
Speaker 6: regardless of where you stand on Donald Trump, I think

1017
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,359
Speaker 6: he does. He really wants to win in November, and

1018
00:52:57,400 --> 00:53:00,799
Speaker 6: I think that the people around him know how to win. Elections,

1019
00:53:01,160 --> 00:53:04,640
Speaker 6: and they know that having success and having opportunities to

1020
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 6: point to supporting smart policies that people back home are

1021
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 6: activated about is the right way to go and having

1022
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:16,880
Speaker 6: these petty discussions and arguments about who should be in

1023
00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:21,200
Speaker 6: charge is not the path to success in November. And

1024
00:53:21,239 --> 00:53:23,239
Speaker 6: Donald Trump has seen that, and he has said that,

1025
00:53:23,280 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 6: and I've heard from friends of mine that are closer

1026
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:29,360
Speaker 6: into that circle that he is unhappy with this constant

1027
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:31,560
Speaker 6: back and forth. He wants to see leadership. He wants

1028
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,080
Speaker 6: to see something that he can stand on to say

1029
00:53:34,200 --> 00:53:36,719
Speaker 6: Republicans know how to govern in spite of the fact

1030
00:53:36,719 --> 00:53:38,880
Speaker 6: that there's a Democrat in the White House and the

1031
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 6: Democrats are controlling the Senate. So that to me seems

1032
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:42,960
Speaker 6: like if it's that's the.

1033
00:53:43,000 --> 00:53:46,160
Speaker 2: End of the story, then it doesn't matter what Marjorie

1034
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:48,880
Speaker 2: Taylor Green thinks. As long as Donald Trump does not

1035
00:53:49,000 --> 00:53:53,520
Speaker 2: want his campaign to be interrupted, Mike Johnson is a

1036
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: safe man. He's got the speaker's gavel.

1037
00:53:56,600 --> 00:53:57,840
Speaker 6: I really think so, Joe.

1038
00:54:00,040 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 2: That says a lot to us as we work our

1039
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:04,040
Speaker 2: way through the next six months. Can he get anything

1040
00:54:04,080 --> 00:54:05,080
Speaker 2: passed in that environment?

1041
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 6: Well, I don't know. This is kind of an amazing

1042
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,200
Speaker 6: weekend for him. I think that it all remains to

1043
00:54:11,200 --> 00:54:12,799
Speaker 6: be seen. I think there's a lot of work that's

1044
00:54:12,840 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 6: still yet to be done, but also to keeping those

1045
00:54:15,400 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 6: factions as close as they can, keeping them working together.

1046
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,520
Speaker 6: I mean, there was so much that was set in

1047
00:54:21,680 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 6: a pathway starting in January, from the one vote to

1048
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:28,760
Speaker 6: motion to vacate the Senate or the Speaker to putting

1049
00:54:28,760 --> 00:54:31,319
Speaker 6: two hardliners on the Rules Committee. It has made the

1050
00:54:31,520 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 6: Speaker's office so much less powerful that if nothing else,

1051
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:38,719
Speaker 6: he can point to these as wins and point to

1052
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,520
Speaker 6: these as ways that perhaps they can work together as

1053
00:54:41,560 --> 00:54:43,800
Speaker 6: a conference to get more done.

1054
00:54:44,520 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 2: But glad you could talk to us today about it,

1055
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:50,400
Speaker 2: Lisa Camussa Miller. It's great to have you back, Lisa.

1056
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:55,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1057
00:54:55,520 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already an Apple, Spotify,

1058
00:54:58,560 --> 00:55:01,120
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcast, and you can find

1059
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:04,000
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, d C. At noontime

1060
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,440
Speaker 2: Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.