WEBVTT - 4/11/25: Dollar Plunges, SCOTUS Orders Return of Deported Man, Douglas Murray Beclowned By Dave Smith 0:00:01.080 --> 0:00:04.360 Happy Friday. Everybody. Take a look. We got everybody in 0:00:04.360 --> 0:00:06.520 the house. Nice to see you guys. 0:00:08.200 --> 0:00:11.120 Wow, nice to see right. Oh well, thank you. 0:00:11.200 --> 0:00:11.239 No. 0:00:11.360 --> 0:00:13.319 I appreciate we had to move some things around, but 0:00:13.560 --> 0:00:14.560 definitely had to be here. 0:00:17.440 --> 0:00:17.560 Now. 0:00:17.760 --> 0:00:19.720 I just have a very rigid I ariginly have a 0:00:19.760 --> 0:00:22.599 really very rigid schedule, and as you guys know, with 0:00:22.640 --> 0:00:25.000 my sleep sleep schedule and other things, I'm very reluctant 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.880 to move things around. But sometimes that's what that's what things, 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:29.600 that's what things get called for here. 0:00:30.200 --> 0:00:33.640 Yeah, well there's a lot of things going on, uh 0:00:33.960 --> 0:00:37.199 what many market moves that are kind of disturbing, and 0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:39.319 China's announcing new tariffs, and so we'll take a look 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:43.000 at that stuff. We've got big Supreme Court, unanimous Supreme 0:00:43.040 --> 0:00:46.280 Court decision last Friday. We actually talked to the lawyer 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:51.080 for Kilmar Abario Garcia. He is the immigrant who was 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:55.360 wrongfully the administration even admitted wrongfully sent to that person 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:57.200 at El Salvador. The question was whether or not they 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.200 would have to do anything to come back. In the 0:00:59.240 --> 0:01:02.400 Supreme Court, in a nine to o decision, says you 0:01:02.480 --> 0:01:05.600 have to in this word is key facilitate his return 0:01:06.200 --> 0:01:08.720 so really significant there. We're also getting a look at 0:01:08.760 --> 0:01:13.959 the government's quote unquote case against Mockmood Khalil, which is 0:01:14.080 --> 0:01:16.920 revealing in the many things it doesn't say and doesn't argue. 0:01:16.959 --> 0:01:18.760 So we'll take a look at that, and then SAGERA 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:22.520 in particular, very very interested in this Dave Smith Douglas 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:24.560 Murray debate on Joe Rogan. You want to give a 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:25.680 little previous Sager. 0:01:25.680 --> 0:01:28.360 I'm I'm heated, you know, I, as I said, I've 0:01:28.360 --> 0:01:30.880 got my schedule, you know, I'm at the gym ready 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.960 for my cardio, and so I see this thing flash 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:37.160 on my Spotify. As you know, Douglas Murray can't really 0:01:37.200 --> 0:01:39.760 I don't really like the guy, but I'll decide it 0:01:39.880 --> 0:01:43.959 within the first ten minutes. I'm I'm so, I'm texting, Dave, 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.600 I'm tweeting. I'm fury. My entire workout has been screwed 0:01:48.680 --> 0:01:51.200 up and I'm enraged. I had to sit there and 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.840 just work out. Oh I did afterwards, Yeah, afterwards, because 0:01:54.840 --> 0:01:58.440 my blood was so it was so hot over this 0:01:58.640 --> 0:02:01.760 entire thing. It was ever characteristic. And have been so 0:02:01.840 --> 0:02:04.280 reluctant to enter this so called woke right debate because 0:02:04.280 --> 0:02:06.920 I find it so tedious and annoying. Emily, I'm sure 0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:10.160 you find it similarly, But this is the best example 0:02:10.200 --> 0:02:13.880 to me of somebody who is, you know, double standards 0:02:14.680 --> 0:02:18.480 all of the tropes of actual wokeism, like in terms 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:23.880 of lived experience and ad hominem attacks and expert you know, 0:02:24.000 --> 0:02:27.000 trolling or whatever, when you yourself are not even and experts. 0:02:27.040 --> 0:02:29.480 And we'll get to it, but yeah, I'm excited about it. 0:02:29.720 --> 0:02:31.280 I guess I'm just like, I don't know how it's 0:02:31.320 --> 0:02:33.320 even a debate at this point about the quote unquote 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:36.080 woke right, Like, how is that even a debate? I mean, 0:02:36.120 --> 0:02:39.320 and they've crazy further than the craziest wokesters could have 0:02:39.320 --> 0:02:42.560 ever imagined with regard to like using the apparatus of 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:43.959 the state to achieve their goals. 0:02:44.280 --> 0:02:46.480 Yeah, but the thing is, Crystal is, as you understand it, 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:48.919 the people who are pushing it, like Douglas are the woke, right. 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:50.919 The crazy thing is they're the ones who coined the 0:02:51.040 --> 0:02:54.800 term for people who are against or not even against 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:57.320 who want They're the ones who coined the term for 0:02:57.360 --> 0:02:59.720 people who are like, hey, like maybe we can talk 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:04.640 about Israel or Ukraine immigration immigrant. I don't understand if 0:03:04.840 --> 0:03:07.240 they are the ones who created it, they're like and 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:10.079 that's that's actually part of what makes it so maddening. 0:03:10.200 --> 0:03:12.680 And like I said, I don't generally engage with like 0:03:12.760 --> 0:03:15.960 low IQ individuals like James Lindsay, but you know, just 0:03:16.000 --> 0:03:18.720 like just the other day, just yesterday he tweeted and 0:03:18.720 --> 0:03:21.239 he was like, gosh, they're calling Douglas Murray and neo 0:03:21.320 --> 0:03:23.440 Khon And I'm just like, am I the only person 0:03:23.440 --> 0:03:25.840 who reads books or like knows anything anymore? Because he 0:03:25.840 --> 0:03:28.840 wrote a book called neo Conservatism Why we need It? 0:03:28.919 --> 0:03:33.320 And it's like in Europe, right Ryan, Like you know, 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:38.640 for you've been in this game while what you know, 0:03:38.840 --> 0:03:41.520 if someone was like, hey, Douglas Murray's neo khon, you'd 0:03:41.520 --> 0:03:45.080 be like, yeah, we know, bro. She told us things. 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:49.520 He told us that I read that book Incer Soccer. 0:03:49.560 --> 0:03:51.920 You're you're very animated this morning. Your mic is still 0:03:51.920 --> 0:03:53.120 like peaking a little association. 0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:55.320 I'm sorry, Okay, all right, I'll turn it down. 0:03:57.880 --> 0:04:00.600 He needs like a Douglas Murray James Lynn a button 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:03.400 on his microphone when he gets mad, he hits. 0:04:03.200 --> 0:04:06.720 That great and then we go to the proper setting to 0:04:07.040 --> 0:04:10.320 bring back our tones. Okay, all right, well, with all 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:12.040 that's being said, let's get to the markets. I'm just 0:04:12.040 --> 0:04:15.520 gonna pull up the CNBC main page now so we 0:04:15.560 --> 0:04:18.040 can see it's nine to fifteen am. Market to open 0:04:18.120 --> 0:04:20.719 in fifteen minutes. We can take a look at the futures. 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.920 So also this headline has been important. Jamie Diamond says 0:04:23.920 --> 0:04:26.159 he expects S and P five hundred earnings estimates to 0:04:26.240 --> 0:04:28.960 fall as companies pull guidance. And apparently Jamie diamond like 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:30.960 basically runs the country since he's the one that Trump 0:04:31.040 --> 0:04:35.360 allegedly listened to about the potential for the potential for 0:04:35.400 --> 0:04:37.800 a recession. You can see here up at the top though, 0:04:38.200 --> 0:04:43.200 futures basically flat at this point. But saga, let me 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:44.719 let me throw it to you a little bit here 0:04:44.800 --> 0:04:48.760 for what we saw yesterday, you know, originally obviously Trump 0:04:48.760 --> 0:04:51.440 makes his announcement. Okay, we're keeping the terrace on China. 0:04:51.720 --> 0:04:54.000 What are they now? One hundred and forty five percent? Yes, 0:04:54.200 --> 0:04:57.200 but we're rolling back other terriffs to quote unquote just 0:04:57.279 --> 0:05:00.000 ten percent except for Canada and Mexico, which you're staying 0:05:00.120 --> 0:05:03.240 with whatever they were before. Markets get really excited. There's 0:05:03.279 --> 0:05:05.520 a huge gain one of the largest single day gains 0:05:05.560 --> 0:05:08.720 in history, and then the next day looked very different, 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:10.840 so a lot of those gains rolled back, and then 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.960 overnight we were seeing some really troubling indications in terms 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:17.760 of bonds, in terms of basically the world being like, 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.240 you know, I don't know if the US economy is 0:05:20.279 --> 0:05:22.159 really the place where we want to put our money 0:05:22.279 --> 0:05:24.880 with any regards. So Sager, why don't you go ahead 0:05:24.880 --> 0:05:25.719 and speak to a little bit of that. 0:05:26.240 --> 0:05:28.440 Yeah, sure, is my mic. Ok Now, I'm talking a 0:05:28.480 --> 0:05:30.840 little biteah about better. Okay, all right, sorry sales guy. 0:05:30.920 --> 0:05:33.000 Apologize everyone. I'm still a boomer in terms of my 0:05:33.040 --> 0:05:36.640 home setup. Yeah, the dollar, there's been some major selloff 0:05:36.680 --> 0:05:39.520 in the dollars. Actually, one of the most important things 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:42.760 that's happening, aside to the bond market, the dollars at 0:05:42.800 --> 0:05:46.080 one of its lowest levels for international currencies, including in 0:05:46.120 --> 0:05:50.000 the European Union. This is not necessarily like de dollarization, 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:52.279 but it is generally like a loss of confidence and 0:05:52.640 --> 0:05:55.440 reserve currency. I don't want to overstate the case, but 0:05:55.560 --> 0:05:58.600 obviously with trade instability, that's going to be a big 0:05:58.640 --> 0:06:01.480 part of it. The bond market continues to be a 0:06:01.520 --> 0:06:04.159 big problem and The funny thing is it wouldn't be 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.960 as much of a problem if the administration had not 0:06:08.120 --> 0:06:12.400 said from day one that their stated goal was too 0:06:12.560 --> 0:06:16.800 lower the yield on the ten years, specifically to try 0:06:16.800 --> 0:06:20.080 and reduce the amount of debt servicing that would require 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.920 from the federal government. And so the fact that the 0:06:22.960 --> 0:06:25.880 bonds have spiked in terms of the yield, and actually 0:06:25.920 --> 0:06:29.279 even the ninety day reduction did not have any general 0:06:29.600 --> 0:06:34.120 reaction on the price basically means that the administrations the 0:06:34.160 --> 0:06:37.960 administration strategy is failing on all fronts. From the bond strategy, 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:41.240 we also have like this attempt to try and what 0:06:41.320 --> 0:06:44.320 is it. The attempt is to try and isolate China 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:46.320 with the rest of the world. So not only do 0:06:46.360 --> 0:06:48.520 we still continue to have the ten percent tariff, but 0:06:48.520 --> 0:06:51.880 we're actually starting to see some interesting deals getting cut, right, 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:54.120 So you could see there that you brought it back 0:06:54.160 --> 0:06:56.440 about the long term yields. But I actually think one 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:59.560 of the more interesting stories is about this European Union 0:06:59.680 --> 0:07:02.280 side deal that's been cut with China. So actually the 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.559 last twenty four hours has been very clarifying for US markets, 0:07:05.600 --> 0:07:07.560 and that's why I don't really think it's a surprised 0:07:07.600 --> 0:07:11.840 that we saw such a significant reduction overall yesterday. And yeah, 0:07:11.840 --> 0:07:13.480 as you said, it's nine to fifteen here on the 0:07:13.520 --> 0:07:16.000 East coast. We have a general decent idea of where 0:07:16.000 --> 0:07:17.880 things are, and the S and P basically is flat 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:21.200 to yesterday. So you know, the total bump quote unquote 0:07:21.200 --> 0:07:24.000 from the ninety day pause, it's like maybe four to 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:26.080 five percent. I mean, don't forget, we're still almost what 0:07:26.120 --> 0:07:28.880 fifteen seventeen percent down from the all time high on 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:32.160 the SP five hundred and the day. There's still some Yeah, 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:35.280 there are the deals, right, part of the deal Ryan. 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.520 One of the things this morning, so China announced they're 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.360 lifting tariffs to I think one hundred and twenty five percent. 0:07:41.640 --> 0:07:43.440 But they also said, and I think this is part 0:07:43.480 --> 0:07:46.440 of why futures are basically flat up a little bit. 0:07:46.720 --> 0:07:48.960 They also were like, that's all we're doing, like whatever 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:51.680 Trump does, like we're just staying here. We're not doing 0:07:51.680 --> 0:07:54.160 this whole tip for tat thing. And so I don't know, 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.200 I guess that's giving people comfort of like, well, I 0:07:56.200 --> 0:07:58.120 guess it's not going to get worse than it already is. 0:07:58.200 --> 0:08:01.880 But I also saw I think Wisenthal was tweeting that 0:08:02.040 --> 0:08:07.600 the the like discount store five and below canceled from China. 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:12.120 Five below, Yeah, five below, you can't below. It's I 0:08:12.160 --> 0:08:13.920 have to say, they have some kind of cool stuff 0:08:13.920 --> 0:08:14.280 in there. 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:17.440 Anyways, you ever need a gift, like a white elephant 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:19.480 gift or something, It's a great place to go. I've 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:21.120 bought a lot of stupid ship from there before. 0:08:21.320 --> 0:08:21.640 Yeah. 0:08:21.680 --> 0:08:23.680 But anyway, I'd love for you to talk a little 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:28.120 bit about the China dynamics here, because, uh, I feel 0:08:28.120 --> 0:08:31.440 like there's a lot of overconfidence among the leadership of 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:33.960 this country that we're positioned to win a trade war 0:08:34.000 --> 0:08:36.480 with China whilst also fighting trade wars apparently with the 0:08:36.520 --> 0:08:37.160 rest of the world. 0:08:38.600 --> 0:08:43.320 I don't know where that confidence comes from. China has basically, 0:08:43.920 --> 0:08:46.040 you know, all of the cars as Trump as Trump 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:47.840 likes to put it, like, they have every they have. 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:51.800 They have the treasuries, they have the manufacturing capacity, they 0:08:51.840 --> 0:08:56.800 have the supply chains. We buy things from them, like 0:08:56.840 --> 0:09:03.160 that's that's our entire leverage. And if they can find audiences, 0:09:03.400 --> 0:09:08.280 consumer bases for that for that manufacturing capacity, then we're screwed. 0:09:08.320 --> 0:09:11.960 And so they're they're already pivoting domestically they have a 0:09:11.960 --> 0:09:15.720 billion plus people. They're trying to grow their domestic consumer base. 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.959 They're you know, there's the European Union, There's there's Southeast 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:22.200 and South Asia. You know they have uh, they have 0:09:22.400 --> 0:09:25.120 they have political problems with all of these different entities 0:09:25.120 --> 0:09:30.000 of various ranges, but nothing like what they have all es. 0:09:30.040 --> 0:09:33.120 So it makes it makes their differences with Southeast Asia, 0:09:33.160 --> 0:09:35.520 you know, pale in comparison to US. And just so 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:39.840 people understand the the profound implications of these of these 0:09:39.920 --> 0:09:43.120 yield numbers going up. I remember when I was taking 0:09:43.120 --> 0:09:45.480 the Series seven, like twenty five years ago or whatever, 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:47.600 one of the you know, the on the bond side. 0:09:47.600 --> 0:09:49.120 How did you take the Series seven? 0:09:49.400 --> 0:09:50.400 I was a broker. 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:57.920 Yeah, when have you looked like eight lifetimes right out 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.160 right out of college, you have two thousand, two thousand, 0:10:01.200 --> 0:10:01.880 two thousand and one. 0:10:02.000 --> 0:10:04.360 So the dot com crash got you out of the business, 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:04.800 got it? 0:10:05.120 --> 0:10:07.360 I was Yeah, I was there while it happened. Basically, 0:10:07.559 --> 0:10:09.839 it was actually I got there a little bit after. 0:10:10.080 --> 0:10:11.560 Not that's wild. 0:10:11.840 --> 0:10:14.959 That's my first article ever. Yeah, my first article ever 0:10:15.040 --> 0:10:16.760 was an expose a of the place where I worked 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:22.080 actually hire this man, which was a It was a 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.480 mobbed up shop and they're they're like, uh, they're going 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:26.000 to kill you for this. I was like, no, they're 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:27.560 not going to kill me, and they didn't kill me. 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:30.520 But on the series seven they think this is a 0:10:30.600 --> 0:10:34.800 key thing that there's a seesaw effect with bond prices 0:10:35.520 --> 0:10:39.080 and interest rates. When bond prices go up, interest rates 0:10:39.080 --> 0:10:42.200 go down. When bond prices go down, interest rates go 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:45.679 up because when you need to entice people with a 0:10:45.760 --> 0:10:48.640 higher interest rate to get them in, and so it's 0:10:48.679 --> 0:10:52.920 supply and demand. When there's more demand for a bond, 0:10:53.280 --> 0:10:56.320 the price of it goes up, and so when people 0:10:56.360 --> 0:11:00.559 sell stocks, they move money. This is the orthodox. When 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:05.120 people sell stocks, they move money into bonds. Because there's 0:11:05.160 --> 0:11:07.760 now more people trying to buy bonds, the price comes 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:11.240 up and the interest rate goes down. And that was 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:14.480 what the Trump administration was counting on, that if you 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.880 tank the stock market, you drive up the price of bonds, 0:11:17.880 --> 0:11:20.560 and then you reduce the interest rate, and then boom, 0:11:20.679 --> 0:11:23.240 we can when we roll over all of our debt our, 0:11:23.280 --> 0:11:26.400 debt payments are going to go down. But something broke. 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:30.240 The orthodoxy is not working. People sold out of the 0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:33.839 market and they're going somewhere else. They're also selling their 0:11:33.840 --> 0:11:36.760 bonds Japan's as. 0:11:36.160 --> 0:11:38.040 A lot of it is into gold. By the way, 0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:41.440 gold prices are going up and up, So I mean 0:11:41.559 --> 0:11:41.920 there's a. 0:11:41.840 --> 0:11:44.080 Lot going on there looking for equities around the world too, 0:11:45.280 --> 0:11:47.960 somewhere other than the US that they can so we 0:11:48.160 --> 0:11:49.520 are screwed. 0:11:49.840 --> 0:11:50.040 Well. 0:11:50.080 --> 0:11:52.920 So, I mean throughout the week I have been, I've 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:54.760 probably had a different take from you guys, and that 0:11:54.840 --> 0:11:57.360 I've like, this stuff is so hard to predict it 0:11:57.400 --> 0:11:59.440 to the point that Ryan just made it's kind of 0:11:59.440 --> 0:12:02.840 like jury's all out. And I think Sager just said 0:12:02.880 --> 0:12:05.840 the last twenty four hours have been clarifying. That is, 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:08.960 I mean, what we're starting to see is maybe this 0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:12.360 isn't a surprise, but the Trump administration said this is 0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.680 going to be a bet. We're gonna as we do 0:12:14.720 --> 0:12:17.400 this ninety day pause, we're going to just jack up 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.000 the China tariffs. And this is going to force countries 0:12:20.040 --> 0:12:23.720 and Wisenthal pointed this out, like Cambodia and Vietnam to 0:12:23.880 --> 0:12:27.600 choose finally, between the United States and China. Nobody can 0:12:27.600 --> 0:12:29.480 have it both ways anymore, and so this is going 0:12:29.520 --> 0:12:31.839 to bring a rash of investment back into the US 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:34.880 and it's going to be great. Everyone's going to be happy. 0:12:35.080 --> 0:12:38.320 And I do think there's just been a lack of 0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:41.840 evidence of any of that happening. You know, it's not 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:44.960 like that's not shock, you're controversial, but they are not 0:12:45.080 --> 0:12:47.560 able to point to very many examples. And this is 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:49.680 something we saw this in a CNN Wasn't this a 0:12:49.679 --> 0:12:53.880 CNN panel last night, where like actually pointing to examples 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:57.000 of how this has panned out over the last week, 0:12:57.080 --> 0:12:59.800 like investments that have actually come into the United States, 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:04.480 deals with those seventy five countries that have actually been struck. Listen, 0:13:04.520 --> 0:13:07.560 I'm still open to hearing great deals are coming through 0:13:07.559 --> 0:13:09.760 with these countries because we do have the leverage over 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:12.080 things like the EU. But they can also just decide 0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:12.959 to go to China. 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:18.240 And if you that's already happening, it's already happening, and 0:13:18.280 --> 0:13:20.520 think about it. But like, if that's the bet you're 0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:23.120 going to make, okay, then why are you running around 0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:27.040 the world like insulting everyone needlessly and you know, picking 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:31.199 fights with Denmark and sending jd Vance to like shake 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:35.280 his finger at the Europeans for their censorious ways, which 0:13:35.360 --> 0:13:37.720 there's some legitimate critiques there, but then you know you 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:41.600 have no room to talk given what you're doing back home. Right, 0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.920 And so if okay, if you wanted to do this intelligently, 0:13:45.080 --> 0:13:47.600 which Sager was saying, this is like, in some ways, 0:13:47.640 --> 0:13:50.600 I hate even indulging an intelligent conversation about this because 0:13:50.600 --> 0:13:51.959 there is no intelligence behind this. 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:52.360 Right. 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:55.120 If you wanted to do this intelligently, and you wanted 0:13:55.120 --> 0:13:57.120 to force the world to pick between you and China, 0:13:57.160 --> 0:13:59.520 and you actually wanted to win in that, why would 0:13:59.520 --> 0:14:03.000 you tearify entire world? Right? Why would you go around 0:14:03.040 --> 0:14:05.560 insulting all of these people, picking a fight with Canada, 0:14:05.600 --> 0:14:07.600 picking a fight with my picking a fight with Denmark 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:10.560 over Greenland, picking a fight with the EU. No, you 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:13.480 would want to isolate China. You would want to try 0:14:13.520 --> 0:14:17.000 to make that deal appealing for your allies, and they've 0:14:17.040 --> 0:14:19.560 done the total opposite of that. You know. I think 0:14:19.600 --> 0:14:23.800 part of it comes from Trump's like he's an old man, 0:14:24.280 --> 0:14:26.400 and his formative years when he was like at the 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:29.760 peak of his powers, or like the eighties and early nineties. Okay, 0:14:30.240 --> 0:14:33.040 the US is in a very different position now. The 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:37.080 world has moved on, Right, we have a true economic 0:14:37.120 --> 0:14:40.360 competitor in China, who is in many ways surpassing us 0:14:40.400 --> 0:14:45.040 at this point, especially on technological development and their ability 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:48.000 to you know, build and deliver for their own people 0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:51.000 and have some sort of like unity and program and 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:54.320 long term thinking behind all of that. And it just 0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:56.920 seems to me like he didn't reckon with any of that, 0:14:57.080 --> 0:15:00.720 because you know, I'm not a financial genius. I did 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:04.440 never I never took the series seven. I'm looking at 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.720 this all from like a political macro perspective, and it 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.720 does not surprise me at all that as the stock 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:15.640 market is tanking and as we are taking these insane 0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:19.560 like positions and total chaos and they're on, they're off, 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:22.040 they're on, they're big, they're small, or whatever, we're doing 0:15:22.080 --> 0:15:24.280 it again in ninety days, that the rest of the 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:27.000 world is going like we already were moving in the 0:15:27.040 --> 0:15:30.560 direction of moving away from the dollar. Did we learn 0:15:30.640 --> 0:15:32.880 nothing from the fact that we threw every sanction in 0:15:32.920 --> 0:15:35.000 the book at Russia and they were like, yeah, we're 0:15:35.000 --> 0:15:37.720 still okay, Like we're actually we were able to manage that. 0:15:37.760 --> 0:15:40.640 And China is so much better position than Russia, in 0:15:40.680 --> 0:15:43.200 such a wealthier place to be able to withstand what 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:44.240 we have to throw at them. 0:15:44.920 --> 0:15:46.560 Well, I just want to say quickly, like on the 0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:49.120 so Scott Bessett was making the point on Talker last 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:50.920 week that the mark a lot of the market dips 0:15:50.920 --> 0:15:53.520 started with deep seek, which is super interesting if you're 0:15:53.520 --> 0:15:57.320 making this bet about China, and I think what the 0:15:57.360 --> 0:16:00.280 reason that they were doing the penguin tariffs and the 0:16:00.280 --> 0:16:03.000 reason that they were like being so chaotic. I'm not 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:05.080 saying that there was like a method to the madness. 0:16:05.080 --> 0:16:07.320 I think people were on different pages. I think Trump 0:16:07.400 --> 0:16:10.640 allowed that to happen because he was like, the more 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:13.640 people have no idea what my strategy is, the more 0:16:13.680 --> 0:16:15.880 that they bet with the United States. It creates this 0:16:16.040 --> 0:16:19.440 complete state of total chaos and uncertainty, and we are 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:22.080 the steady hand, and it's the. 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:26.680 Study Are you kidding me? Are you kidding to China? 0:16:26.720 --> 0:16:28.160 But this is what I'm saying, this is what I'm 0:16:28.160 --> 0:16:30.720 saying with the best at point, he's making the point 0:16:30.840 --> 0:16:35.000 that the deep seek leap is baked into the market 0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.680 decline at the same time as they're saying the uncertainty 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.720 will cause people to bet on the United States. I 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:46.080 think there's there's something if you are Canada or Mexico 0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:47.800 and you were treated a little bit differently in all 0:16:47.840 --> 0:16:49.960 of this, but still got some attacks, although I know 0:16:50.040 --> 0:16:53.480 we have. Yesterday Trump said nice things about Queen Cloudy 0:16:53.480 --> 0:16:55.000 as shine Bomb the show. 0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:01.680 Yeah, he's part of that percent approval ratings she had. 0:17:04.200 --> 0:17:07.600 But for some people, like for some countries, it there's 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:10.359 logic for Trump flex and his muscles and saying you 0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:11.560 don't want to be doing this with. 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:15.080 China, like this is is the US. You're safer with us. Well, 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:16.920 it didn't. It's not turning out that way. 0:17:17.359 --> 0:17:19.119 One thing I just want to put on quickly just 0:17:19.160 --> 0:17:21.360 to show you guys, like why China is so much 0:17:21.359 --> 0:17:24.119 better positioned is this story which I was just reading 0:17:24.119 --> 0:17:26.840 this morning. This will not really make sense to most people, 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:30.119 but this is an example of what realestate capacity looks like. 0:17:30.400 --> 0:17:32.480 So JD dot Com, for people who don't know, is 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:34.919 one of the biggest companies in the Fortune or in 0:17:34.960 --> 0:17:39.160 the Global five hundred and it is according to the 0:17:39.200 --> 0:17:41.840 Wall Street Journal. Here what the Chinese government has said 0:17:42.240 --> 0:17:45.400 is that this is effectively like forcing Amazon to then 0:17:45.520 --> 0:17:50.359 pump twenty seven billion dollars of money into their economy, 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:55.280 to force that company to buy exclusively Chinese products and 0:17:55.400 --> 0:17:59.200 to boost their domestic manufacturing. So I just want to 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:02.359 show people, like, when you have a wholesome strategy, you 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:05.680 can absorb one hundred and twenty five percent tariffs. If 0:18:05.760 --> 0:18:08.480 this was a strategy that was pushing something like this, 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:11.399 I would be behind it. But I don't see a 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:15.040 dollar for dollar investment credit here being pushed in the 0:18:15.119 --> 0:18:18.560 United States. Instead, the Trump administration currently endorsed a one 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:22.320 trillion dollar cut from the United States government budget, while 0:18:22.359 --> 0:18:26.000 we're also simultaneously increasing the Pentagon budget by one hundred 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:29.520 and fifty billion dollars. So there is actually a reduction 0:18:29.640 --> 0:18:33.240 in state capacity and in cutting project yeah doze project 0:18:33.440 --> 0:18:38.160 cutting taxes, reducing state capacity. We're actually cutting manufacturing tax 0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:42.439 credits and extending them for corporations, all while trying to 0:18:42.520 --> 0:18:45.520 levy a massive tariff. China, on the other hand, when 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:48.440 they absorb a massive tariff, what do they do. They're like, hey, 0:18:48.520 --> 0:18:51.840 JD dot Com aka Amazon or retailer or whatever. They're like, 0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:54.600 you're pumping twenty seven billion into the economy, and they 0:18:54.600 --> 0:18:57.760 can do that to every single company in their entire 0:18:57.800 --> 0:19:01.320 country simultaneously. They don't have We have some idiot Jerome 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:03.720 Powell just like reading the tea leaves on an a 0:19:03.800 --> 0:19:06.560 magic eight ball. They're like, the rates are getting cut now. 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:09.159 They also they don't have Congress. They can just pump 0:19:09.440 --> 0:19:12.960 money into their economy. They are ten x better position 0:19:13.040 --> 0:19:16.159 in my opinion, right now than we are because of 0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:19.520 these cross cutting forces. All of this is actually possible 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:22.600 in a democratic system, but it would require a whole 0:19:22.640 --> 0:19:26.000 of government approach, manufacturing, tax credits and more. And I 0:19:26.080 --> 0:19:29.560 think that is really the most like blackpilling thing about 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:31.679 all of this. And yeah, just reading that, I was 0:19:32.000 --> 0:19:34.280 I'm like in awe that they can just go imagine 0:19:34.320 --> 0:19:36.760 summoning bezos the way that they imprisoned that guy was 0:19:36.800 --> 0:19:39.520 at jack MA and they're like, yeah, you're putting twenty 0:19:39.520 --> 0:19:43.159 seven billion off the top, it's going straight into the economy. 0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:45.240 There's no yes or no, they're just like, this is 0:19:45.240 --> 0:19:48.919 what you're doing. And in that my admiration for that 0:19:49.040 --> 0:19:53.240 is that it's Yes, often they use their authoritarianism capriciously 0:19:53.320 --> 0:19:56.080 and to crack down whatever, but like, in this sense, 0:19:56.359 --> 0:20:01.160 it is so obviously intelligent in knowing exactly how to 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:03.800 make sure that the Chinese customer is not you know, 0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:07.919