WEBVTT - IBM CEO Arvind Krishna Talks Quantum Advantage, Profit Strategy

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Romain brings us a very important conversation right now against

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<v Speaker 2>the backdrop of this market. Romain Bostik at the Mazuho

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<v Speaker 2>Tech conference underway right now in New York with the

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<v Speaker 2>CEO of IBM. This is live on Bloomberg. Romain, take

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<v Speaker 2>it away.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Joe.

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<v Speaker 1>I am here with the CEO of IBM, Arvind Krishna,

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<v Speaker 1>here at the Miszoo Technology conference in Lower Manhattan.

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<v Speaker 3>Great to have you here.

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<v Speaker 4>Pleasure to be here with you. Roman.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously, all the talk is about AI. We talk about

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<v Speaker 1>digital AI, we talk about biological AI, physical AI. Everyone's

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<v Speaker 1>already looking around the corner, including you, to quantum, which

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<v Speaker 1>of course many people think is going to be the

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<v Speaker 1>next big thing, something that IBM has been working on

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<v Speaker 1>for years. Two years ago, you laid out a relatively

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<v Speaker 1>ambitious target that we would actually see quantum advantage using

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<v Speaker 1>IBM hardware by the end of twenty twenty six, for

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<v Speaker 1>halfway through the year.

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<v Speaker 4>Are we going to get that? Absolutely?

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<v Speaker 5>If I look at what some of our partners like

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<v Speaker 5>the Creative and Clinic are getting done, what the national

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<v Speaker 5>labs like Okage are getting done, I can already see

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<v Speaker 5>the early signs of what they're getting, the progress they've made.

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<v Speaker 1>When we talk about what that progress could mean not

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<v Speaker 1>only for the world of business and finance, but as

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<v Speaker 1>an application through our society.

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<v Speaker 3>Is healthcare the first place that gets it.

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<v Speaker 5>I think that materials or maybe simple molecules are the

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<v Speaker 5>very first place. Maybe magnetic materials as alternates for some

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<v Speaker 5>of these things that are very hard to get. I'll

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<v Speaker 5>use the word rare as a bit of a fun

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<v Speaker 5>over there. I think lubricants to maybe get more effective energy,

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<v Speaker 5>maybe better ev batteries, and then small molecule drugs are

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<v Speaker 5>there in the first set. But I also want to

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<v Speaker 5>be equally excited about what we could do about modeling

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<v Speaker 5>weather perhaps or modeling flows to improve how chemical plants work,

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<v Speaker 5>maybe aerodynamics to improve how vehicles and airplanes work. These

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<v Speaker 5>are really really exciting use cases for us.

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<v Speaker 3>I am curious.

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<v Speaker 1>So I mean, when we talk about actually starting to

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<v Speaker 1>see some sort of proof of life on quantum advantage

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<v Speaker 1>this year, your own head of research has said that

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<v Speaker 1>that process might be a little bit more elongated. Is

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<v Speaker 1>there a disconnect between your ambitions and what he's seen

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<v Speaker 1>from the scientific perspective?

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<v Speaker 3>No.

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<v Speaker 5>So I'll take an example of what's happening on molecule properties.

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<v Speaker 5>So last summer June of twenty five, we could maybe

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<v Speaker 5>understand a five at of molecule you react with. That's

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<v Speaker 5>not very exciting. You could do that on a piece

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<v Speaker 5>of paper if you're smart enough.

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<v Speaker 3>Okay, I'm not smart enough, but I trust here.

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<v Speaker 5>If Yeah, last November, that team could do three hundred

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<v Speaker 5>at of molecule. Okay, you'll say that's great progress, five

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<v Speaker 5>to three hundred, but you could probably do that on

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<v Speaker 5>a normal supercomputer. So okay, that's not one of an advantage.

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<v Speaker 5>This April they did twelve thousand atoms. They did a

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<v Speaker 5>half of a protein called tripsin. I think they're on

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<v Speaker 5>their way to about thirty thousand items already. So five

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<v Speaker 5>to three hundred, same amount of time, three hundred to

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<v Speaker 5>twelve thousand.

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<v Speaker 4>One more month, twelve to twenty one thousand.

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<v Speaker 5>It gives you the rate of improvement, some of it

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<v Speaker 5>from the hardware, some of it in algorithmic techniques that.

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<v Speaker 4>People are learning of what can work.

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<v Speaker 5>By the way, at this size, you can't actually do it.

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<v Speaker 4>Any other way.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Well, we talk about the commitment that you've made

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<v Speaker 1>to this. You've been invested or committed to invest about

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<v Speaker 1>ten billion dollars in this, which I assume is a

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<v Speaker 1>tip of the iceberg. You got some pretty big backing

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<v Speaker 1>from the federal government giving you one billion dollars, not

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<v Speaker 1>that you need it, but certainly a vote of confidence.

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<v Speaker 3>When you start to see.

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<v Speaker 1>The government getting involved, obviously you have a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>I guess quasi competitors in this space also getting involved.

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<v Speaker 3>Does that accelerate this pace?

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<v Speaker 5>That's what I believe the government investment is for. So

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<v Speaker 5>if you look at it, it's not so big that

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<v Speaker 5>it's controlling thing. However, it's a sign of endorsement, and

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<v Speaker 5>it is a signal of them wanting to get speed, meaning, IBM,

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<v Speaker 5>you're going to do this. If we commit to do this,

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<v Speaker 5>will you do it faster? Will you open it up

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<v Speaker 5>to everybody else? So it's open to the ecosystem, And

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<v Speaker 5>we said yes, because we actually believe an ecosystem is important.

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<v Speaker 5>And if government investment gets us there a year or

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<v Speaker 5>two or three before we might otherwise, both of those

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<v Speaker 5>are worth it. And that is what is important about that.

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<v Speaker 1>The one billion dollar investment from the Trump administration is

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<v Speaker 1>specifically to build up a chip boundary.

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<v Speaker 3>If you are a quantum chip foundary.

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<v Speaker 5>Quantum foundry that we have committed will be open to

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<v Speaker 5>all comers that are acceptable to the United States. So

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<v Speaker 5>the three dozen odd companies that are here, we are

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<v Speaker 5>happy to give them our best technology, the same as

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<v Speaker 5>we use for ourselves at that level, whether they all

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<v Speaker 5>get access to it, and you say.

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<v Speaker 1>All commers as to what's been approved, this is the

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<v Speaker 1>idea that this is about furthering the US's aims to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure that they have an advantage with regards to

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<v Speaker 1>what gets made, and I would presume so that it

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't get in the hands of the countries that we

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<v Speaker 1>don't want to ask.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, I think that is easy.

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<v Speaker 5>I mean, like there have always been restrictions and advanced

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<v Speaker 5>technologies that you cannot sell it or provide it to

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<v Speaker 5>certain places.

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<v Speaker 4>I think that is fine.

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<v Speaker 5>But in a new area, it's really important to be first,

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<v Speaker 5>both for the economic competitiveness long term, but also for

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<v Speaker 5>national security. I think for those two reasons it's impetative

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<v Speaker 5>that we get there first.

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<v Speaker 3>Do you think the US will be there first.

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<v Speaker 4>On quantum Absolutely, You're.

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<v Speaker 1>Not concerned about some of the reports that we've heard

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<v Speaker 1>about some of the progress that we've already seen in China.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm paid to be paranoid, so I wouldn't say I'm

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<v Speaker 5>not concerned. However, from everything I can see, I think

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<v Speaker 5>we are ahead a head by a decade. Probably not,

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<v Speaker 5>but are we a head by a couple of years,

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<v Speaker 5>That would be my guess.

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<v Speaker 1>I do want to talk about just AI in general.

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<v Speaker 1>At your think conference last month, you talked a lot

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<v Speaker 1>about this idea of the progress company are making with

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<v Speaker 1>regards to the deployment of AI. More importantly, some of

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<v Speaker 1>the progress they aren't making. You've talked about this idea,

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<v Speaker 1>or IBM has certainly talked about this idea of the

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<v Speaker 1>limited ROI that we've.

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<v Speaker 3>Seen so far.

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<v Speaker 1>You say that the companies that are getting this right

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<v Speaker 1>aren't necessarily the ones that are just deploying more models,

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<v Speaker 1>but they're finding ways to take the models that they

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<v Speaker 1>already have and use them better.

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<v Speaker 3>Explain that.

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<v Speaker 4>I'll give you an example.

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<v Speaker 5>So you can certainly improve productivity of individuals. We'll call

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<v Speaker 5>that productivity apps. That's where both economists and CFOs get

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<v Speaker 5>very concerned. But where's my bottom line on that? Is

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<v Speaker 5>it leading to less expense or more revenue. Where is that?

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<v Speaker 5>And that's hard to find. But let me give you

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<v Speaker 5>a second example, and you'll say, okay, I can see

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<v Speaker 5>that we are pretty acquisitive. Anybody who does MNA, you

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<v Speaker 5>often bring the entity in and actually, normally your profits

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<v Speaker 5>might decrease for the first year or two until you

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<v Speaker 5>take all of the costs and get the cost s energy.

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<v Speaker 4>Using AI tools, now we can.

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<v Speaker 5>Probably add ten points of profit s energy on day

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<v Speaker 5>one because the amount of time it used to take

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<v Speaker 5>to move contracts over, to do all of the sales automation,

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<v Speaker 5>to do all of the revenue forecasting, all of that

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<v Speaker 5>now using AI can be shrunk down to literally a

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<v Speaker 5>few weeks. If you can do that, I cannot take

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<v Speaker 5>that ten percent. I'm not saying it's ninety percent, but

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<v Speaker 5>ten percent and invest it instead in marketing and R

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<v Speaker 5>and D and innovation to drive the revenue growth even higher.

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<v Speaker 5>That's an example of what I mean by use the

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<v Speaker 5>AI to really fundamentally change how you do business. Has

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<v Speaker 5>got to become part of your operating model of the company.

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<v Speaker 1>Are you taking that medicine yourself?

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<v Speaker 3>Internally?

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<v Speaker 4>We are.

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<v Speaker 5>In the last acquisition we did, we actually managed to

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<v Speaker 5>take out about sixty percent of the GNA on day one.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the message though, that you have not only for

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<v Speaker 1>your partners but also internally for your own workforce with

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<v Speaker 1>the guards to how this actually not only helps, but

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<v Speaker 1>maybe the idea that maybe it requires a smaller headcount.

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<v Speaker 5>It's not necessarily going to be a smaller headcount. So

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<v Speaker 5>a lot of people talk about this. So let me

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<v Speaker 5>give you an example on early on college hires. We

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<v Speaker 5>tripled our hiring in twenty twenty six compared to twenty

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<v Speaker 5>twenty five. Okay, is the entry level for entry level

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<v Speaker 5>positions tripled?

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<v Speaker 4>Absolute number tripled.

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<v Speaker 5>So you look at me and say why, Because my

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<v Speaker 5>belief is if these tools make people who are coming

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<v Speaker 5>in out of college more productive quicker, that means we

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<v Speaker 5>are going to be advantaged by having more capacity to

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<v Speaker 5>build things at a cheaper cost point, which means we

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<v Speaker 5>can go get market shared. Will the shape of the

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<v Speaker 5>workforce change, absolutely, but I think there will be more

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<v Speaker 5>people in the value driving functions, be IT R and D,

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<v Speaker 5>be IT sales, be IT marketing, and the creative activities

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<v Speaker 5>and some of what I would call classic back office

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<v Speaker 5>will decrease because you don't need so much there, So

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<v Speaker 5>the shape of the workforce changes. Total employment is not decreasing.

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<v Speaker 3>I want to talk about security.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously, we know the potential opportunities when it comes to AI,

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<v Speaker 1>quantum and everything in between. You've invested about so far

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<v Speaker 1>a commitment of about five billion dollars towards something called

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<v Speaker 1>Project Lightwell, the idea that it gives your partners a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more visibility about flaws in that sort of

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<v Speaker 1>AI chain, if you will, for my sort of uninformed

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<v Speaker 1>framing of it. But talk about why that's necessary, and

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<v Speaker 1>more importantly, is five billion going to be enough.

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<v Speaker 5>It's hard to tell whether any amount is enough here.

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<v Speaker 5>I think, look, this is like asking why are cyber

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<v Speaker 5>criminals existing, and the old really sudden joke call as well,

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<v Speaker 5>I draw banks because that's where the money is. Well,

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<v Speaker 5>if money's inside the cyber infrastructure, they're going to come.

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<v Speaker 5>Our investment in Light twelve. I think a lot of

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<v Speaker 5>people can point out the problems and point out vulnerabilities.

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<v Speaker 5>Our investment in light Trail is actually about fixing them.

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<v Speaker 5>So we are saying that not just open source that

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<v Speaker 5>we are good at, but if you have open source

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<v Speaker 5>and the source code is known, we can use these

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<v Speaker 5>same tools that I used to find vulnerabilities to also

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<v Speaker 5>create the fix and give it back to the community.

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<v Speaker 4>That is really what light Trail is about.

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<v Speaker 5>Of course, in order to do that, you need cooperation

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<v Speaker 5>around where people are finding things, how critical are they,

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<v Speaker 5>where are they in the critical infrastructure? So that is

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<v Speaker 5>the whole project. But it's actually about us coming up

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<v Speaker 5>with an antidote, not just the problem.

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<v Speaker 1>This I can just tell it by look at interface.

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<v Speaker 1>This is probably an exciting time for you. IBM is

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<v Speaker 1>obviously a storied company when it comes to computing, and

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<v Speaker 1>we are clearly at the inflection point of something new,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe something better. You've gotten a big bump in your

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<v Speaker 1>stock price, largely because of at least the government backing

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<v Speaker 1>or at least the government support. Is there a sense

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<v Speaker 1>here when we talk about the potential for an acceleration

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<v Speaker 1>in revenue growth the widening of profit margins, that that

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<v Speaker 1>is something that is imminent or is that something still

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<v Speaker 1>long term?

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<v Speaker 4>Well depends on what you call long term.

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<v Speaker 5>I kind of like in what we're doing on quantum

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<v Speaker 5>and cyber to where GPUs were in twenty fifteen twenty sixteen,

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<v Speaker 5>and each era of technology tends to go faster, so

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<v Speaker 5>if I say QPUs plus cyber is.

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<v Speaker 4>Going to go fast.

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<v Speaker 5>I think in the next two three years being going

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<v Speaker 5>to see incredible returns coming from these technologies into our numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>And with those ambitions, you have the capital you need

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<v Speaker 1>in order to do that. Any plans to maybe go

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<v Speaker 1>to the market to look for a little bit more.

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<v Speaker 5>We go to the markets all the time. We are

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<v Speaker 5>always in the debt markets, and so far our debt

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<v Speaker 5>investors have been very confident.

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<v Speaker 4>In US and we get great rates there.

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<v Speaker 5>We could maybe dip into other markets, but I think

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<v Speaker 5>for what I'm pointing out over the next five years,

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<v Speaker 5>I think we have the capital and we got the

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<v Speaker 5>WAB withth All insight.

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<v Speaker 3>Arvin really appreciate you joining us.

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<v Speaker 4>My pleasure.

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<v Speaker 3>That's Arvind questionna. He is the CEO of IBM