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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros. This is the Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. It is me, Joey Pa, Joe Pi Zapia,

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Speaker 1: and you are in for a treat today. Back by

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Speaker 1: popular demand, here we go. It's the twenty twenty three

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Speaker 1: version of the Great Pitching Debate. And who better to

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Speaker 1: talk about this than our boys, Nick Pollock and Alex

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Speaker 1: Fast from Pitcher List, two of the best in the business.

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Speaker 1: These guys eat, sleep, and breathe pitching and they have

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Speaker 1: great contempt for one another, which is why they're friends

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Speaker 1: and why they are back here on the program. And gentlemen,

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Speaker 1: I went back and listened to last year's so much

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Speaker 1: good advice. This was so close too. At the end,

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Speaker 1: Nick Pollock did pull it out, and you know what

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Speaker 1: the tie breaking question was, whether or not you were

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Speaker 1: gonna draft Jacob de Grom and Alex Fast was without hesitation. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm good, Yes we're doing it. We're going. I wonder

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Speaker 1: what that answer is this year. But Nick Pollock was hesitant.

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Speaker 1: Therefore I agreed with him, and I gave him the

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Speaker 1: final point, Nick, what does it feel to be uh,

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Speaker 1: what does it feel like to be King of the Mountain?

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Speaker 1: And do you think you can go back to back

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Speaker 1: here in twenty three It.

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Speaker 2: Feels like a Tuesday, Joe, That's what.

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Speaker 3: It feels like. I'm going to go back to back

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Speaker 3: because I've seen Alex FAST's top one hundred, and it's just,

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Speaker 3: you know, he's come so far in this industry since

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Speaker 3: I got that starry eyed email in twenty sixteen, but

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Speaker 3: there are still some things he has to learn.

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Speaker 1: Alex Fast, you have last we spoke, you are very

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Speaker 1: close to having a child. You've now had said child.

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Speaker 1: I know that sometimes changes a man. Do you think

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Speaker 1: it's changed you enough that you're ready here to dethrone

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Speaker 1: the reigning champion here? Nick Pollock, do you think that

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Speaker 1: experience has kind of changed you as a human, as

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Speaker 1: an as an analyst as well.

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Speaker 4: It's given me perspective, It's given me, you know, wisdom,

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Speaker 4: It's made me a lot wiser, of course. And I

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Speaker 4: have no qualms or concerns about wedding this because I've

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Speaker 4: already won.

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Speaker 5: Right, I have the receipts that prove it. We can

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Speaker 5: go to our d MS and.

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Speaker 4: Say, well, Joe, the list I originally gave you, says Nick,

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Speaker 4: It's not right. I took a look at Alex's and

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Speaker 4: I adjusted it, and that's so funny.

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Speaker 5: All of the rankings are closer to mine.

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Speaker 4: Now we'll see a lot of that over the course

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Speaker 4: of this podcast, including with one of the first guys

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Speaker 4: that we're going to be talking about. So regardless of

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Speaker 4: what happens today, when my head hits the pillow tonight,

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Speaker 4: oh no, I already won.

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Speaker 1: Well there you go. If you guys aren't excited, I

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Speaker 1: don't know what to make I don't understand it.

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Speaker 3: It's like the election results are rigged before we start.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 5: Well, I'm just.

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Speaker 1: Happy this year, Nick, actually that Alex put the time

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Speaker 1: into make rankings this year because last year, arg.

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Speaker 5: See making a child. Last year I couldn't.

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Speaker 1: No, that's not true. You aren't making a child. You

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Speaker 1: are waiting on a child. If you're making a child,

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Speaker 1: maybe I would have given you a little bit more

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Speaker 1: slack or even the big thumbs up potentially, But you're

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Speaker 1: just waiting for one. I mean that could take you hours, months, weeks,

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Speaker 1: you know. So look, now, let's just get to the

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Speaker 1: meat and potatoes of what's going on here, because we

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Speaker 1: are going to go through a list of pictures that

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Speaker 1: Alex likes more than Nick, and a list of pitchers

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Speaker 1: that Nick likes more than Alex, and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: decide who is right and who is wrong. And if

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Speaker 1: you watched last year's show, it was a it was

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Speaker 1: quite the debate. So, gentlemen, I hope you're you've started

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Speaker 1: your engines and you're ready to go. We're going to

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Speaker 1: start today with our challenger. These are pictures that Alex

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Speaker 1: likes more than Nick. So Alex, I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: a chance here to get on the board, get on

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Speaker 1: the board fast, and kind of come out swinging here

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Speaker 1: on the big boss man Nick Pollocks. So let's start

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Speaker 1: with Kyle bradish He is an ADP of one ten

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Speaker 1: here as a starting pitcher off the board. So he's

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Speaker 1: the one hundred and tenth starting pitcher going off the

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Speaker 1: board here on fantasypros dot Com. The consensus ADP Bradish

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Speaker 1: strong finished last year for the Baltimore Orioles one hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventeen innings, just a four and seven record, but

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Speaker 1: one hundred and eleven k's in those one hundred and

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Speaker 1: seventeen innings. The era and whip were high, but there

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Speaker 1: were definitely some starts that raised some eyebrows. He is

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Speaker 1: a fantasy darling this year in many analyst eyes. And

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Speaker 1: Nick Fast, I mean, Alex, Oh my god, I made

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Speaker 1: you one person, Alex Fast. That's the most terrifying idea

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Speaker 1: in the whole world.

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Speaker 2: Is having a baby Alex a bigger honor.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, all I know is I don't know who would

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Speaker 1: have custody of that demon seed, Alex Fast. Kyle Bradish

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Speaker 1: is the guy that you want to talk about first,

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Speaker 1: So make the case for Big Kyle b in Baltimore.

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Speaker 2: Listen.

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Speaker 4: Like I said earlier, the argument's already over before we

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Speaker 4: even sent over our list. Kyle Bradish wasn't even in

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Speaker 4: Knick's top one hundred. Oh my god, I put him

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Speaker 4: at eighty one, and guess what happens. He's mysteriously at

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Speaker 4: eighty six in Knick's Top one hundred a week later.

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Speaker 4: Because Nick has already seen the light, he understands that

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Speaker 4: there is some increased not as much as we originally thought,

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Speaker 4: but some increased velocity on Kyle Bradish's foresteamer. We're gonna

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Speaker 4: talk about in a second, because obviously Nick's gonna come

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Speaker 4: and he.

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Speaker 5: Say, LaVar Semer's garbage. It's got cut action on it.

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Speaker 5: It's never gonna do it. Did you see him at

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Speaker 5: spring training yesterday?

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Speaker 1: He gave up nine earned.

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Speaker 4: Runs, which is my nick impression. I'm doing my best

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Speaker 4: to work on it. You have to bear with me

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Speaker 4: for a second. I hope you're not creating me on that.

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Speaker 1: The slider hairlier.

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Speaker 4: The slider is a fantastic pitch for him by PLV

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Speaker 4: Pitchreless's own fantastic metric, which you should be checking out.

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Speaker 4: It is the seventy fourth percentile in PLV, seventeen percent

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Speaker 4: swinging strike right in all of baseball, and a two

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Speaker 4: forty three x WOBO, which is also seventy fifth percentile.

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Speaker 4: That slider he can throw in and out of the zone.

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Speaker 4: He can get whiffs when it's out of the zone,

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Speaker 4: he can get called strikes when it's in the zone,

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Speaker 4: and he frequently has very good command of the pitch.

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Speaker 4: People will point to that four seemer and say, yeah,

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Speaker 4: it's very.

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Speaker 5: Hittable, and it is.

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Speaker 4: However, he's debuted a new sinker this year. That sinker

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Speaker 4: is getting more horizontal movement breaking away from the slider

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Speaker 4: and gives him a new fastball offering that could theoretically

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Speaker 4: help him.

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Speaker 5: Get over the hump.

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Speaker 4: Am I talking about Kyle Bradish as a top fifty pitcher.

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Speaker 5: I am not. I'm talking about a guy that you

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Speaker 5: just said is going.

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Speaker 4: Three sixty three over in drafts, one hundred and tenth

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Speaker 4: pitcher off the board right now.

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Speaker 5: He's going late enough in drafts.

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Speaker 4: He's got enough shine and upside that he can positively

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Speaker 4: benefit your team. And like I said, Nick and I

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Speaker 4: are right there with him in terms of ranking. But

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Speaker 4: I would like to hear why I'm so.

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Speaker 5: Wrong on a guy that Nick is just as close

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Speaker 5: as me on.

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Speaker 1: All Right, Nick Pollock, the argument's been made for Kyle Bradish.

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Speaker 1: He did kind of, you know, throw that barb out

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Speaker 1: there that you have made adjustments on him and moved

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Speaker 1: him up your board a little bit. So you're gonna

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Speaker 1: have to dig yourself out of that hole.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty easy.

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Speaker 3: When you hear someone arguing against you, instead of actually

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Speaker 3: talking about the thing at hand, they want to talk

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Speaker 3: about the other person.

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Speaker 2: You know they don't have a strong argument.

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Speaker 3: And when it comes to Kyle Bradish, I have a

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Speaker 3: rule which is, if you're into a pitcher, you have

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Speaker 3: to have at least two pitches that you really can

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Speaker 3: stand on and say like these are the two good offerings,

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Speaker 3: especially when they have a bad for Steamer, as Fast

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Speaker 3: eloquently already pointed out, the for Seemer has cut action

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Speaker 3: that he's going to make it continue to be a

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Speaker 3: hit holl pitch.

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Speaker 2: We haven't seen that.

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Speaker 3: Sinker have success yet new pitch, and we he even

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Speaker 3: sends me this whole Bert Simpson image saying I will

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Speaker 3: not be swayed by a pitcher's new pitch in spring training.

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Speaker 2: We know this.

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Speaker 3: So if you look at Cali Bradish, he has a

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Speaker 3: slider that, yes, does grade well in POLY, but it's

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Speaker 3: not elite. You want to say seventy seventh percentile. That

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Speaker 3: means that there's twenty five percentile more better sliders out there.

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Speaker 3: A quality pitch miyas bad pitch percentage as just sixtieighth percent.

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Speaker 3: That's good, but that's not the thing I want to

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Speaker 3: hang my hat on when it comes to a pitcher.

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Speaker 3: You also have the curve ball, which is under a

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Speaker 3: fiftieth percentile by Peel. It is not that strong number

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Speaker 3: two pitch that you want it to be, and it's

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Speaker 3: I'm waiting for it to happen with Kyle Bradish now

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Speaker 3: I had him inside my top one hundred. I was saying,

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Speaker 3: maybe there are new things here and spring training that

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Speaker 3: I am overlooking a bit. I'm going to be lowering

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Speaker 3: him on Friday. As in your twelve teamers, I do

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Speaker 3: not want to be chasing calib Brash out of the gate.

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Speaker 3: There are many other options to go for for a

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Speaker 3: higher upside, and you are putting yourself in harm's way.

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Speaker 3: If you have Kyle Brash, why not go after Hayden

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Speaker 3: Westnski or so who's going around.

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Speaker 2: I'm the same place inside of your drafts.

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Speaker 3: There is no reason to chase Bradish, who does not

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Speaker 3: as fast ays have that top fifty eight ceiling. That

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Speaker 3: is not the player you want to get in your

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Speaker 3: twelve teamers.

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Speaker 1: I understand the point you're making here in terms of

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Speaker 1: chasing him, but I'm actually looking at the ADP that's

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Speaker 1: actually moved over the weekend too. Now cal Bradish is

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Speaker 1: at pitcher one P fifty one on the consensus, so

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Speaker 1: he's moved even more recently and been dropped down further.

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Speaker 1: That's just straight up free and I understand last year

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Speaker 1: he did have some moments where certainly struggled quite a bit,

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Speaker 1: but there were a couple of games, two against Houston

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Speaker 1: where he was spectacular. He did have a very good

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Speaker 1: game against Cleveland down the stretch as well. He showed

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Speaker 1: you some flashes, and I think whenever a kid shows

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Speaker 1: you some flashes, you take notice of that. I remember

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Speaker 1: a couple of years back when Sandy al Contra would

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Speaker 1: show you some flashes of some stuff and you're like,

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Speaker 1: maybe this guy can put it all together eventually, but

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Speaker 1: he was far from a finished product. I am not

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Speaker 1: comparing those two guys necessarily, but I think whenever you

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Speaker 1: have a guy that shows you dominant flashes and he's free,

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Speaker 1: I think you take a shot on him. So Nick Pollock,

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Speaker 1: you're probably right in the sense that this is a

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Speaker 1: picture that probably is going to give you some disappointment.

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Speaker 1: But the fact that he's free and the fact that

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Speaker 1: he guessed a lot of free there are, but there's

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Speaker 1: not a lot of free guys who had a couple

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Speaker 1: dominant performances last year. That's the difference. Alec fast, you

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Speaker 1: get on the board here real quick with number one.

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Speaker 1: So well done. Let's go to the second picture here

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Speaker 1: on your list, Sean Manaia And this is another picture too,

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Speaker 1: coming off a bad year. Let's be honest, Let's call

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Speaker 1: it what it was. Last year, in one hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: eight innings, he was an eight and nine record, one

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Speaker 1: hundred and fifty six strikeouts, just fifty walks there, three

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Speaker 1: to one k walker ratio. That's fine, except that the

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Speaker 1: whip was one point three, the era was four nine

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Speaker 1: to six, and Sean Manyah was on his way out

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Speaker 1: of San Diego, but he's staying in California, in San

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Speaker 1: Francisco and San Francisco, Alex. That's been one of those

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Speaker 1: spots where lately it seems like they know something we

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Speaker 1: don't know, and they've been able to turn around a

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Speaker 1: lot of these guys, whether it be Alex Cobb or

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Speaker 1: Kevin Gossman, they've really done a good job there identifying

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Speaker 1: pictures that they want and then getting them into that

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Speaker 1: organization and kind of fixing them. Is Sean and I

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Speaker 1: the next guy for San fran to fix.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I kind of think that when there's a lot

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Speaker 4: of good data, the points of the fact that.

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Speaker 5: He may well be. Now I'm not going to continue.

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Speaker 4: To harp on this point, but this is another magical

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Speaker 4: guy who was unranked by Nick and is now just

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Speaker 4: five spots away from where I magically had him in.

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Speaker 3: The right You did, mind like six weeks after when

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Speaker 3: you learn about the velocity, I that's so funny.

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Speaker 4: Mine came out then all we know, all of a sudden,

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Speaker 4: here's John and I hear he is uh so Manaiah.

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Speaker 4: As we kind of mentioned one of I think the

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Speaker 4: biggest things that has me really interested in him is

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Speaker 4: the uptick in velocity. I mean, Nick has even said

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Speaker 4: himself that that's a big thing for him.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: We've seen what happens when he has the velocity that

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Speaker 4: he is showcasing. The problem has been whether he can

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Speaker 4: be consistent with it, and so far in spring training

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Speaker 4: he has been able to be consistent with it. Issues

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Speaker 4: and injuries are always going to be injuries are always

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Speaker 4: going to be an issue for him. But even if

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Speaker 4: you cap him at one hundred and fifty innings and

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Speaker 4: we see an uptick in the velocity for him, that

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Speaker 4: could theoretically be a big step forward. There were some

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Speaker 4: things that obviously, like keep hitting the nail on the head.

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Speaker 4: Last year it was not great. There are some pitches though,

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Speaker 4: by stuff plus that indicate that it's better than what

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Speaker 4: we saw last year right, his sinker, for example, the

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Speaker 4: change up gets a really good amount of whiffs. He

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Speaker 4: didn't really use it to be as much of a

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Speaker 4: hard contact pitch as it turned into last year.

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Speaker 5: Right.

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Speaker 4: There's a big difference between the three ninety one era

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Speaker 4: and three sixty six fifth that he put up in

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Speaker 4: one hundred and seventy innings in twenty twenty one and

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Speaker 4: the four ninety six era. Right, we saw the sinker

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Speaker 4: move arm side a bit more, and I wonder maybe

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Speaker 4: if that impacted the change up at all.

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Speaker 5: The sinker did maintain its whiffs, which was good to see.

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Speaker 4: It was the change up, though, and the breaking pitch

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Speaker 4: that really caused him the problems. The change up couldn't

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Speaker 4: get whiffs out of the zone. The bab have jumped up,

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Speaker 4: you know, implying that even natural regression should make him

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Speaker 4: perform better. The breaker also lost its ability to get

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Speaker 4: whiffs out of the zone. It went from being able

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Speaker 4: to get ground balls at a relatively good clip to being

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Speaker 4: a kind of fly ball machine with a lot of

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Speaker 4: those fly balls leaving the yard.

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Speaker 5: Right, So, what I'm kind of saying is we see

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Speaker 5: a change.

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Speaker 4: Up in breaking pitches that have historically performed better than

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Speaker 4: they performed last year. It is not out of the

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Speaker 4: question to see them get back to where they were.

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Speaker 4: Right you add in an additional tick of v LO

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Speaker 4: with that, plus that he's in a better park, plus

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Speaker 4: that he is with an organization that could theoretically benefit

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Speaker 4: him even more, then yeah, again we're talking about a

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Speaker 4: guy who is going relatively late that could provide you

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Speaker 4: with good amount of upside.

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Speaker 1: The vlow is back in that low to mid nineties

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Speaker 1: range here, Nick Pollock, But you're still not buying it.

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Speaker 3: Why, well, Okay, a couple things here. One, I'm actually

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Speaker 3: pretty close with a fast on Shawman. I have him

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Speaker 3: at seventy six. Fast time is at seventy one. So

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Speaker 3: I don't know if there's gonna be too much that

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Speaker 3: we are going to disagree, and I will say not

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Speaker 3: a better organization Necessarily, he's leaving San Diego, who should

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Speaker 3: be a high win volume team, going to the Giants,

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Speaker 3: and we just saw the Giants have a terrible defense

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Speaker 3: behind it. Look what happened to Cobb and what we're saying, it's, oh,

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Speaker 3: it's all the all fit and everything. No, the defense

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Speaker 3: let them down. That's why we had this massive change

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Speaker 3: in their expected arrays and their actual array, and there's

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Speaker 3: no guarantee that this is going to be fixed now

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Speaker 3: for Sham and I, So there is risk inherently in that.

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Speaker 3: Also when it comes to my twelve teamers. And this

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Speaker 3: is very very important and why I'm out on cal

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Speaker 3: Bradish and debating if I want to be in on

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Speaker 3: Sean Ma Andya is early in the season is most

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Speaker 3: important when it comes to these final pitcher spots. You

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Speaker 3: are not getting this guy and just holding on to

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Speaker 3: him from the entire year. It is not a best

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Speaker 3: ball league that you are in. So if you're getting

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Speaker 3: a guy at the end of your drafts like a

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Speaker 3: shaw Ma and I like a Cali Bradish, it likely

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Speaker 3: means that you're starting in the first week.

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Speaker 2: If you're not, what are you doing?

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Speaker 3: You should be going after someone else who you would

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Speaker 3: actually want to get value out of and then also

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Speaker 3: have that ceiling. I don't know if I want to

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Speaker 3: start Sean and Iya out of the gate. It's a

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Speaker 3: tough matchup for him against the Yankees, not necessarily fun one.

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Speaker 3: I don't know if we're going to see the slider

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Speaker 3: in the change up return all of a sudden to

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Speaker 3: what they were from last year. It is a volatile situation. Also,

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Speaker 3: Sean and I over the years has never been consistent.

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Speaker 3: He has always been someone that has this lower arm

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Speaker 3: angle and that leads to worse command sustainably over a

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Speaker 3: full season. So right out of the gate, if I'm

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Speaker 3: drafting Sean and I, I'm already throwing myself in a

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Speaker 3: ton of risk and I'm not gonna be able to

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Speaker 3: kind of wait and see and figure this out. I

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Speaker 3: do like taking the chance on the higher blostoing seeing

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Speaker 3: that six it does sound nice, But those that are

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Speaker 3: drafting him and thinking, oh cool, I've got this really

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Speaker 3: good guy down on the Giants, I'd be very cautious

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Speaker 3: of that. So being as aggressive around seventy I think

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Speaker 3: is actually a little too aggressive, and upon him back

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Speaker 3: coast where I have him is understanding the risk involved here.

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Speaker 1: The problem is you probably could have stopped right when

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Speaker 1: you said, yeah, I've got him in the seventies, because

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Speaker 1: the consensus has him as SP one thirteen and you

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Speaker 1: both have him in the seventies. So to me, although

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Speaker 1: you made a lot of good arguments about Sean and

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Speaker 1: I's downside, at the end of the day you put

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Speaker 1: him in the seventies, right where Fast put him. So

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Speaker 1: you kinda there's a light like you set up the

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Speaker 1: trap and you decided not even like to put your

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Speaker 1: foot in. You just put your head in it, and

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Speaker 1: it throws right in there, and it's gonna go to

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Speaker 1: Alex Fast again with Sean ma and I and I

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Speaker 1: didn't think that was gonna come there. I thought you

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Speaker 1: were gonna make a really bold but once you said

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Speaker 1: he's not, he's right there in the seventies for me too,

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Speaker 1: I mean, after that, it was all just you sounded

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Speaker 1: like one of those Charlie Brown parents to me, which

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Speaker 1: is my wall. That's all I heard. And that was it.

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Speaker 1: So we're gonna have to move on to the next

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Speaker 1: player here. It's it's not you mean, yeah, you led

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Speaker 1: with the wrong piece, were you? Right away? You cut

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Speaker 1: the legs out from under your own argum? Then right

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Speaker 1: at the beginning, all right, let's go to Ken Waldachuck,

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Speaker 1: who may or may not have played for the Quebec

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Speaker 1: Nord Deeks at one point. I love this name. Waldachuck

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Speaker 1: is definitely a hockey player name. Oakland Athletics SP number

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Speaker 1: one thirty seven currently right now, as we're looking at

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Speaker 1: the board, let's talk about Alex Fast. Let's go. I

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Speaker 1: don't know if you make a clean sweep here, but

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Speaker 1: the floor is yours. For Waldashock last year thirty four innings,

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Speaker 1: two and two record, thirty three k's ten walks, a

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Speaker 1: four nine three era in a one point two to

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Speaker 1: one whip. So what do you seeing Waldershock this year

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Speaker 1: that had you excited?

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Speaker 5: We can or can't curse on this podcast?

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Speaker 1: You can't, but you can. You can give it a

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Speaker 1: lot of emotion and try and you use you know,

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Speaker 1: just be clever if you like.

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Speaker 4: I'll just say that Ken Waldechuck's is what I'll say,

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Speaker 4: and people can use their imagination.

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Speaker 5: I mean, ah, very good, very good. Thank you.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, is what you're saying. He's a real chuck. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: he's all right. There you go.

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Speaker 4: There's some really intriguing underlying numbers for Walderchuck that has

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Speaker 4: me a bit more interested than maybe I even thought

390
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Speaker 4: I should be. The change up and the four seamer

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Speaker 4: have really really good stuff numbers.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 4: There are a lot of great mentalities that you can

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Speaker 4: take when you're approaching your draft, right, and one of

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Speaker 4: the ones that Nick takes with PLV and ENO takes

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Speaker 4: with stuff plus. Is when we have a small sample,

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Speaker 4: we need to find something that regulates really quickly. Right,

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Speaker 4: with a small amount of data, Ken Walderchuck with a

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Speaker 4: small amount of data that he has theoretically has three

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Speaker 4: plus pitches that could be really beneficial for him.

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Speaker 5: The change in the four seamer have great stuff numbers.

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Speaker 4: The change up doesn't have the best location, but I

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Speaker 4: don't necessarily know if he needs it. Right, we saw

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Speaker 4: some positives last year. We saw a one twenty one whip.

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Speaker 4: We saw a twenty three percent k rate but on

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Speaker 4: a twelve percent swinging strike rate. Now that theoretically means

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Speaker 4: that that k rate could actually go up to the

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Speaker 4: twenty five twenty six percent range, which you would love

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Speaker 4: to see from him. Now, I'm not gonna lie, right,

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Speaker 4: the fur seamer isn't the best in the world last

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Speaker 4: year in terms of batted ball performance. Right, it gave

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Speaker 4: up a four to twenty five wOBA and x wOBA. However,

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Speaker 4: very small sample size, and when we see the stuff

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Speaker 4: numbers that we have from ken Walda Chuck, that definitely

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Speaker 4: points to a positive regression for him, especially when it's

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Speaker 4: getting a twelve percent withfweight. Right, he had a The

417
00:17:33,320 --> 00:17:35,520
Speaker 4: changeup has a very interesting approach. Twenty percent of his

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Speaker 4: change ups were elevated. He's kind of doing what Lucas

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Speaker 4: Giolito does a little bit. I don't know if he's

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Speaker 4: trying to get it to play off. The four seemer

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Speaker 4: hitters were not really able to do much with it

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Speaker 4: though when he left it up there with a two

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Speaker 4: seventy two whoba and a two forty x whoba. Right,

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Speaker 4: the slider is a pitch that I actually think falls

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Speaker 4: through the stuff plus and the PLV cracks.

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Speaker 5: Right, And you know what the.

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Speaker 4: Source I have is for that a member of the

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Speaker 4: Oakland Athletics Organization who says, yeah, that pitch is dirtier,

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Speaker 4: and our internal stuff metrics say that it is better

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Speaker 4: than what any of the public stuff metrics have. Right,

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Speaker 4: it is a PLUS pitch for him. It passes the

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Speaker 4: eye test. It looks absolutely gorgeous, right, not all about

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Speaker 4: the eye test, but I will say there's something about

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Speaker 4: that that really, you know, jumps out to me. He's

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Speaker 4: another pitcher that is free. Obviously there have been some

436
00:18:22,800 --> 00:18:26,160
Speaker 4: command to shoose in spring. They don't necessarily scare me. Off,

437
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,160
Speaker 4: he has not guaranteed the number five spot right now.

438
00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 5: Neither are a lot of guys.

439
00:18:30,560 --> 00:18:34,960
Speaker 4: Who've got some significant upside Brandon fought. But at the

440
00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,320
Speaker 4: end of the day, Ken Waldechuk has three plus pitches

441
00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:39,960
Speaker 4: that I think he's going to be able to succeed with.

442
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,000
Speaker 4: He's in a plus plus park, and I think, considering

443
00:18:43,040 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 4: the price that he's going right now, he is a

444
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,679
Speaker 4: really fun risk to take in drafts.

445
00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 1: All right, Nick Pollock, let's talk about the risk of Waldechuck. Now,

446
00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,960
Speaker 1: Alex fast has made his argument. It's time for you

447
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,240
Speaker 1: to counter and don't let him go three now on

448
00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 1: you to open this show. That's not good.

449
00:18:56,960 --> 00:18:58,440
Speaker 3: I mean, he might be in a plus plus park,

450
00:18:58,480 --> 00:19:00,520
Speaker 3: but he plays for a negative negative time team.

451
00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 2: The ceiling.

452
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:06,159
Speaker 3: I mean, what's the point here. You're not gonna get

453
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,560
Speaker 3: wins with Ken Walldachuck. This is a guy that you

454
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,320
Speaker 3: even mentioned. This command has been bad through the miners.

455
00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:13,600
Speaker 3: It has walk rates have been eleven percent multiple times.

456
00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,160
Speaker 3: We are seeing a lot of walks already this spring

457
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:17,840
Speaker 3: is a two plus whip in the spring, which I

458
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:19,320
Speaker 3: know is a small sample, but it's.

459
00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:20,920
Speaker 2: Not like this guy is just overwhelming.

460
00:19:21,080 --> 00:19:22,800
Speaker 3: And then you put him in your lineup, then you

461
00:19:22,840 --> 00:19:24,959
Speaker 3: feel like you get success out of the right out

462
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 3: of the gate, like this is, you.

463
00:19:26,760 --> 00:19:28,000
Speaker 2: Might not even get the fifth spot.

464
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 3: You said, why am I drafting even my twelve teamer?

465
00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,520
Speaker 3: I mean, I don't need to say anything else after that.

466
00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,840
Speaker 1: Waldershuck is being drafted as a two hundred and eighteenth

467
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:39,000
Speaker 1: pitcher off the board here on the consensus. I misspoke

468
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 1: earlier with the number that I gave you, and I

469
00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 1: gotta tell you, I mean, Alex Fast. You say the

470
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 1: four seamer is no good, you say he might not

471
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: have a spot. Is the fifth guy in the rotation?

472
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,399
Speaker 1: Nick Pollock? This was an easy one. This was like

473
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:53,920
Speaker 1: easy up for you. I think he just dwned on

474
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,359
Speaker 1: Alex Fast. I think you just went full on Michael

475
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,760
Speaker 1: Jordan dunk over Patrick Ewing on Alex Fast.

476
00:19:58,880 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 5: This one.

477
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,679
Speaker 1: Can I have the guy who doesn't have a good

478
00:20:01,720 --> 00:20:03,840
Speaker 1: four seemer, who's getting a hit all over the ballpark

479
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:07,760
Speaker 1: right now, who might pitch for the A's No, No,

480
00:20:08,080 --> 00:20:10,440
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. That one goes to Nick Pollocks. So the

481
00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,200
Speaker 1: score is two to one, and we're getting out of

482
00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 1: the realm of the guys that Alex likes more than Nick.

483
00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:18,800
Speaker 1: We're gonna flip the script here, and just as a reminder,

484
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,000
Speaker 1: if you've got drafts going on this week or this weekend,

485
00:20:21,000 --> 00:20:24,040
Speaker 1: don't forget to use that Draft Assistant with SYNC technology

486
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 1: because that's the good stuff right there. And if you're

487
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: an MVPR Hall of Fame subscriber, you could try it

488
00:20:28,480 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 1: out now. Fantasypros dot Com slash Draft Wizard, download the

489
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:34,159
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Draft Wizard app. That's a great way to

490
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,840
Speaker 1: use it as well. And basically you'll have that technology

491
00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:39,880
Speaker 1: that you see us using in these mock draft shows

492
00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,159
Speaker 1: that we do all the time, where it tells you

493
00:20:41,600 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 1: the insights of you know, don't take a picture here

494
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 1: because the person behind you urry is pitching flush. Go ahead,

495
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:48,200
Speaker 1: take the pit of the hitter, and then by the

496
00:20:48,240 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 1: time it comes back to you, you'll be okay. It's

497
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,920
Speaker 1: got all the insights of when you should take a player,

498
00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,439
Speaker 1: when you shouldn't, what categories you need to beef up

499
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,280
Speaker 1: in as the draft is going on. If you're playing

500
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 1: in rodo so many bells and whistles, can't get it

501
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:02,280
Speaker 1: unless you download the Draft Wizard app. And I'm telling

502
00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:05,840
Speaker 1: you the Draft Assistant it's like having Nick and Alex

503
00:21:05,920 --> 00:21:07,680
Speaker 1: and myself all in the draft with you, but with

504
00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:10,600
Speaker 1: a lot less tension, a lot less tensions, much easier again,

505
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 1: dowload the Draft Wizard app today. All right, let's get

506
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 1: to the Knicks guys. Here, We're gonna start off with

507
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 1: somebody read Debtmers, who was another I would say, a

508
00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:22,480
Speaker 1: fantasy darling. So we started off here with two of

509
00:21:22,520 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 1: the darlings of the community read Deebtmers, the theoretical fifth

510
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 1: starter for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheimerfod started. Depending

511
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:32,399
Speaker 1: on how you look at that rotation. Innings pitched last year,

512
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty nine seven and six win loss,

513
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty two strikeouts, forty six walks, a

514
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 1: three seven seven ERA, and a one point two to

515
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,679
Speaker 1: one whip. So a lot of people in the community

516
00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,480
Speaker 1: are excited about Debt Mars. Now you are in this

517
00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,160
Speaker 1: excitement level, So get me excited. Nick Pollock about get easy.

518
00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 3: Last year, he turned twenty three mid season, and when

519
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:55,280
Speaker 3: he was twenty two, it wasn't very good. His slider

520
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,240
Speaker 3: wasn't there, his fastball kerbble was all that he had.

521
00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:00,000
Speaker 3: He threw a no hater, but it was very lucky

522
00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:02,399
Speaker 3: all that stuff. Then he went to the minors and

523
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,440
Speaker 3: he just as mechanics fixed his slider and also he

524
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,160
Speaker 3: looked like an ace in the second half, absolutely dominated

525
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:10,360
Speaker 3: and he was just twenty three years old. Now here

526
00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:12,719
Speaker 3: we are in his sophomore year. He's already gone through

527
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:15,920
Speaker 3: his adversity and come back and done incredibly well. And

528
00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 3: he now he's throwing two chicks harder. We're seeing sitting

529
00:22:18,640 --> 00:22:20,760
Speaker 3: ninety five is ninety three. Last year sitting ninety five

530
00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 3: and fast. Will tell you the biggest difference in ability

531
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,120
Speaker 3: of a fastba velocity is from ninety four to ninety five.

532
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 3: The second year at ninety five, it changes the game.

533
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 3: That is what Redemers is doing right now. I've been

534
00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:34,160
Speaker 3: watching him this spring. His slider is still there getting

535
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:36,560
Speaker 3: whiffs as well. The kurveballs a solid pitch as well.

536
00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 3: This is the time to go get Redemverers. You're looking

537
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,800
Speaker 3: for your breakout around the thirties and forties or so

538
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 3: of sps. I mean, he may even be able to

539
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:46,720
Speaker 3: wait into the fifties. So so you look in a

540
00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 3: lot of guys who we don't really like. They have

541
00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:52,600
Speaker 3: some clear wartz. You don't have as clear a path

542
00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 3: to actually being a top twenty five starter in the majors.

543
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 3: He is still twenty three. He is so much more

544
00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 3: development left to do. Redebtmers is your guy who can

545
00:23:03,560 --> 00:23:05,760
Speaker 3: clearly have a twenty five percent plus record, right, great

546
00:23:05,840 --> 00:23:08,480
Speaker 3: ratios for you. The Angels offense is also pretty good

547
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 3: now and you can get you wins. It's not destined

548
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: for like a seven win season that he had last year.

549
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 3: Redebtmers should be a target in all of your fantasy drafts.

550
00:23:16,520 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 1: All right, Alex, Fast, time to count on Redebtmers. What

551
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:19,159
Speaker 1: do you have?

552
00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:21,000
Speaker 5: Joe, would you listen to a liar?

553
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:24,239
Speaker 1: I would listen to this, believe them?

554
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:25,879
Speaker 5: Would you trust him? Would you trust him?

555
00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:26,120
Speaker 3: Joe?

556
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 1: Oh, I wouldn't trust them.

557
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:28,760
Speaker 5: You wouldn't.

558
00:23:28,800 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 4: So when Nick is telling you that I told him

559
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 4: that the biggest difference in Velo is ninety four to

560
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 4: ninety five.

561
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,600
Speaker 5: Three When it's ninety three to ninety four, that's the

562
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 5: kind of analysis that we're hoping to get from our next.

563
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 1: No. No, No.

564
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:47,119
Speaker 2: Ninety one in ninety four is like the same, and

565
00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 2: then ninety four in a bove, I'm.

566
00:23:48,640 --> 00:23:49,880
Speaker 1: Saying ninety four to ninety five.

567
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 4: This is so it's like almost like we can't rely

568
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 4: on his information, which is true, because we can't rely

569
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:58,439
Speaker 4: on the information that we're hearing from him about redebtments.

570
00:23:57,840 --> 00:23:59,960
Speaker 2: Right again, attacking me and not the player.

571
00:24:00,760 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: I'm going right for the facts is what I'm going for, sir,

572
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:05,320
Speaker 4: and that's what the people deserve, and I'm going to

573
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 4: give them the facts. The facts are that when I

574
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 4: use PLV, which is again established by the Pictureless team,

575
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 4: which is a fantastic metric that people should go to

576
00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 4: Pittreless dot com and checking up.

577
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,920
Speaker 5: But it's okay, okay, it should be checking out PLV.

578
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,160
Speaker 1: Pl know what x plug is, by the way, Alex

579
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:21,840
Speaker 1: is just curious.

580
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course I do. X plug is a fantastic

581
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 5: metric that everyone should be relying on.

582
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:30,200
Speaker 1: And and uh and who hosts the x plug?

583
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 5: You know who who is the x plug?

584
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: Like what site has generated the x plug?

585
00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 4: Do you know there's a question that's a question that

586
00:24:36,880 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 4: you want to ask me on this podcast about you

587
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 4: loogle x plug.

588
00:24:39,920 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 1: I just want to let you know they may take

589
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: your computer away, possibly too. But let's let's get back

590
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 1: to redebt mers please. Nick Polic is so ashamed you

591
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,239
Speaker 1: might get your your notice after this show. You might

592
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 1: have to get let go potentially. All right, So back

593
00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: to Redebt meers, do you have any tangible arguments here

594
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,399
Speaker 1: other than your very amusing that are going after Nick Pollock,

595
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 1: which are amusing, But so far I don't see where

596
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: you're hitting Redebt mers. You're just hitting Pollock.

597
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 4: The point that I'm making is PLV itself, which is

598
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 4: a fantastic metric, shows that that four seamer is far

599
00:25:11,200 --> 00:25:11,879
Speaker 4: below average.

600
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,359
Speaker 5: Right, stuff plus PLV all say.

601
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:18,080
Speaker 4: That that four seamer, it's a sub ninety weighted stuff

602
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,920
Speaker 4: plus we're looking for four seamers to be one hundred

603
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:24,520
Speaker 4: or more. Right, it's thirty fourth percentile in PLV. Right,

604
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 4: and guess what the slider itself. The slider itself was

605
00:25:28,320 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 4: about above average in terms of PLV and stuff plus. Right,

606
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 4: Nick said himself that this is a you know, we

607
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:36,800
Speaker 4: want a guy who's gonna have two plus pitches, right,

608
00:25:37,000 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 4: we want a guy who's not just gonna have a

609
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 4: foundation on one pitch. The slider is a plus pitch,

610
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 4: even though stuff plus and PLV say that it isn't.

611
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 4: The slider is a very very good pitch. But as

612
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 4: Nick said, we need more than one. We don't have

613
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 4: it in the four steamer. We don't have it in

614
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,360
Speaker 4: the curveball we saw last year before he went down

615
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:57,159
Speaker 4: to the Miners, that he's capable of a mid four era.

616
00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 4: I think people are not baking into account that there

617
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:03,360
Speaker 4: is a floor here for Reed Debtmers.

618
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:03,560
Speaker 1: Right.

619
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 4: He is with an organization that has never been able

620
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:09,920
Speaker 4: to significantly develop pitching, and I'm just not necessarily going

621
00:26:09,960 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 4: to bite on the fact that one half a season

622
00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,080
Speaker 4: from Redebtners means that all of a sudden he is

623
00:26:15,160 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 4: a mid to low three e R guy. There are

624
00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:20,080
Speaker 4: guys being drafted after him that have had more success

625
00:26:20,440 --> 00:26:23,399
Speaker 4: and have been able to sustain that success over the

626
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,760
Speaker 4: course of a full year. So if I'm just getting

627
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 4: one pitch with the potential to have a mid four

628
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 4: e R going at that point in the draft, that's

629
00:26:31,760 --> 00:26:32,680
Speaker 4: a little bit scary to me.

630
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: I'm the list of clarity. So you know, alex X

631
00:26:35,720 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 1: plug is a fake metric that the Welsh and I

632
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: have made up and we try to get people on

633
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 1: it on the show, and congratulations, You're the first one

634
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: I've gotten. So I understand it catches you off guard.

635
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: And it sounds like it could be a thing. Hence

636
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 1: why will lie frantically And I'm sure that came up

637
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,120
Speaker 1: were very disturbing of whatever they.

638
00:26:54,119 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 2: Might call them out right away fast.

639
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:56,480
Speaker 1: It was.

640
00:26:58,680 --> 00:26:59,000
Speaker 2: Chance.

641
00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:01,119
Speaker 1: That was the image that came up as the walls

642
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:03,919
Speaker 1: the wa wash of the well, which I was at

643
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:09,639
Speaker 1: Jared Wells over here, so oh my goodness, Alex, I

644
00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:12,720
Speaker 1: gotta tell you, man, he's just really there was this

645
00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: nothing there.

646
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:14,680
Speaker 3: There's just a hell of it.

647
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: Was this empty nothing there for Redebt Meers. I'm going

648
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 1: here with Nick Pollock on redet Look. Redetvers pitched pretty

649
00:27:23,160 --> 00:27:25,880
Speaker 1: well last year for a team that wasn't great. I'm

650
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,600
Speaker 1: still very skeptical about the Angels. I'm skeptical of the Rangers.

651
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 1: I think one of those two teams might be good

652
00:27:31,080 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 1: this year, but it is going to take a lot

653
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 1: of things going their way. But I think Redetmers is

654
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: a player that's on his way up, and still when

655
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:39,360
Speaker 1: you look at where he's going technically right now, he's

656
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: a seventy fifth pitcher going overall, he's going after John Gray.

657
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: Ironically on the Texas Rangers. I see those guys in

658
00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 1: a very similar light. But debt. Maer's a little bit younger.

659
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:48,720
Speaker 1: I think that's the kind of thing you're looking at

660
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,240
Speaker 1: with a little bit more upside, a little bit more

661
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:52,920
Speaker 1: appeal potentially for what he could be. And then after

662
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 1: that it's reclamation projects like Jack Flaherty or Jose Burrios,

663
00:27:56,119 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 1: who every third game he pitches is palatable. I mean,

664
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a shot on Redetmer. So there you go.

665
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:04,280
Speaker 1: We're tied it too. Here let's take a quick break

666
00:28:04,320 --> 00:28:05,960
Speaker 1: in the action to tell you about fan Tracks. The

667
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:09,119
Speaker 1: fan Tracks team is excited to announce their fan Tracks

668
00:28:09,240 --> 00:28:12,520
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669
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:15,960
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670
00:28:16,000 --> 00:28:19,439
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671
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:22,400
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672
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:24,879
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673
00:28:24,960 --> 00:28:27,439
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674
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:30,960
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675
00:28:31,080 --> 00:28:34,200
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676
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:36,720
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677
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,320
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678
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: You see the math I'm laying out here, so no

679
00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,800
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680
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: for your chance to win the fan Tracks Game Day

681
00:28:49,000 --> 00:28:53,000
Speaker 1: Experience giveaway. And now back to the action. Jesus Lozzardo.

682
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: Next guy in the list here that Nick likes more

683
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:59,560
Speaker 1: than Alex twenty twenty two stats one hundred innings pitched.

684
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 1: The problem with Hazus Lozardo or always negative here in

685
00:29:02,840 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 1: terms of the innings, does it quite get you that

686
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 1: one eighty or two hundred Please forget it, four and

687
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 1: seven record with a one twenty ks and a thirty

688
00:29:11,840 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 1: five walk. You got the three thirty two er in

689
00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,200
Speaker 1: a one point zero four whip with Hayze Luis Wizardo.

690
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 1: So my biggest problem with Lozardo is obviously the one

691
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 1: I said, Nick, which is the fact that you just

692
00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,840
Speaker 1: don't get enough Lozardo, and I want more, especially the

693
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,800
Speaker 1: good version. So what makes you think we're gonna get

694
00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:28,920
Speaker 1: the good version of hazels Sozardo in twenty twenty three.

695
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 3: Well, he got the good version of hazos zarda before

696
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 3: and after injury last year three thirty two ear as

697
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 3: you mentioned one four whip with a thirty percent k

698
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:39,200
Speaker 3: rate in that time. And oh guess what, he's throwing

699
00:29:39,280 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 3: ninety seven right now and hit one hundred in spring training.

700
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 2: Here's the thing. He's going at the forty six pitcher

701
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 2: according to Fantasy pros SP.

702
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 3: And at that point, you know, if jazs Lozarda was

703
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,960
Speaker 3: guaranteed for one hundred fifty innings, there's no way he's

704
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:55,520
Speaker 3: forty six.

705
00:29:55,960 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: It's twenty five thirty or so.

706
00:29:58,600 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 3: And when to make that jump, its health as opposed

707
00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 3: to actual skills development, that's always a better bet, especially

708
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,400
Speaker 3: at forty six, where there's no guarantee that these guys

709
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:11,840
Speaker 3: are actually going to excel at their draft stock. So

710
00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 3: give me the guy with a great skills with a

711
00:30:13,680 --> 00:30:16,840
Speaker 3: better fastball, which was his weakness point and it's now better.

712
00:30:16,920 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 3: And we saw actually excel when it was at ninety

713
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,880
Speaker 3: seven at the beginning before the injury last year. He

714
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 3: had a twelve strikeout game in his first game of

715
00:30:23,120 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 3: the season last season with an elite changeup that had

716
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 3: a twenty five percent swing striker last year, a phenomenal

717
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 3: curve ball. This all makes sense, And look, if you

718
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: want to say about the wins with Miami Sandal Kintara

719
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: had easily double digit wins last year, and Hazeus Lozardo

720
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 3: has the ability to go six innings on a given

721
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 3: night with a ton of strikeouts, good ratios. I would

722
00:30:44,880 --> 00:30:46,800
Speaker 3: rather go on that, and even if it's one hundred

723
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:50,120
Speaker 3: and thirty innings, I get quality than from Jesus Lozardo,

724
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 3: which is not what I can say with everybody that's

725
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 3: getting drafted around him.

726
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: That is fair, quality is good quality, and quantity is better.

727
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 1: Two years ago, yeah, six and a half the ra

728
00:31:01,440 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: it was pretty terrifying there. So all right, Hazeus Lozardo fast,

729
00:31:06,200 --> 00:31:08,520
Speaker 1: you got an opportunity here to kind of throw a

730
00:31:08,560 --> 00:31:11,360
Speaker 1: little CounterPunch because there's definitely some holes in this game

731
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: with Lizardo in terms of staying healthy, staying on the mound,

732
00:31:14,640 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: being consistent, and again, you know, it's great to have

733
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 1: a picture that gives you quality innings, but if you're

734
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,600
Speaker 1: in a head to head format, he's only giving you

735
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:22,959
Speaker 1: a hundred of them. That's a problem.

736
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 4: We're talking about context when it comes to this podcast, too,

737
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,720
Speaker 4: because we're talking about one ranking system for another ranking system,

738
00:31:28,760 --> 00:31:31,479
Speaker 4: So the context is very important of Nick having Hazos

739
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 4: Sozardo thirty first right, and I mean there are fantastic

740
00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 4: notes on his pieces. In the first note about jzos

741
00:31:37,200 --> 00:31:40,760
Speaker 4: Sozarto is I know, I'm too dang high on Jesus Lozardo.

742
00:31:41,760 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: By the way, he's always going after me.

743
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 1: The consensus. He is the sixty second starting pitchering going

744
00:31:48,680 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: off the board in the consensus, you are twice as

745
00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:51,960
Speaker 1: high as the consensus.

746
00:31:52,120 --> 00:31:53,200
Speaker 5: That is also a.

747
00:31:53,240 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: Little bit of a red flag there. You're you're you're

748
00:31:55,320 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 1: leading down a right path. Continue on. I want to

749
00:31:56,960 --> 00:31:57,640
Speaker 1: hear what you have to say.

750
00:31:58,000 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 4: I mean, you've made some very apt points. Right We're

751
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:02,640
Speaker 4: talking about a guy who fifty nine innings coming in

752
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 4: a little bit of relief in twenty twenty and obviously

753
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:07,000
Speaker 4: the twenty twenty season. Then we get ninety five innings

754
00:32:07,040 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 4: in twenty twenty one, and then we say, okay, maybe

755
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 4: this is the season where we know he's actually going

756
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 4: to be starting and we could see him go the

757
00:32:12,960 --> 00:32:15,160
Speaker 4: entire course of the year, and we get one hundred innings.

758
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 4: Right now, I think that one of the other problems

759
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 4: that we're talking about here is Nick, are you just

760
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 4: reacting because of the PILs Legacy League. Right now, I'm reacting.

761
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 3: I'm reacting to you having Jack Flaherty one above. This

762
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 3: is like, are you gonna believe this guy, Jack? It

763
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 3: hasn't been good for years and it has an actual

764
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 3: injury going on with him, while Lozardo has actually just

765
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:39,320
Speaker 3: been fantastic and is a way different picture than he

766
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 3: was in twenty twenty one.

767
00:32:40,440 --> 00:32:41,880
Speaker 2: Well whatever, no, please carry.

768
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 5: On, Let's finish the point about about hazos Zardo here.

769
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: This is a guy.

770
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 4: One of the things that we always talk about is

771
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,239
Speaker 4: the Tommy John honeymoon, right, could be about three hundred innings, right,

772
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 4: He is way past that Tommy johnn honeymoon. When it

773
00:32:53,360 --> 00:32:56,600
Speaker 4: comes to three hundred innings. He had that long time ago,

774
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,080
Speaker 4: more than three hundred innings ago. So now we're talking

775
00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,160
Speaker 4: about we have data that's saying after three hundred innings

776
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:04,520
Speaker 4: you are more likely to not succeed as well. And

777
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 4: while you could theoretically say, yeah, he's already hitting one

778
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 4: hundred in spring, how many times does an increase in

779
00:33:10,680 --> 00:33:13,960
Speaker 4: a velocity also lead to more injury risk? Right, So

780
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,360
Speaker 4: we have a guy who's already injury prone, already hitting

781
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 4: one hundred, has never thrown over one hundred and one

782
00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 4: innings in all of baseball, and we want to be

783
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 4: taking him as the thirty first pitcher off the board.

784
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 4: It doesn't bake in enough of the fact that he

785
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 4: could just not pitch for you for three quarters of

786
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:28,960
Speaker 4: the year.

787
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:32,320
Speaker 3: I can't believe I'm hearing the fact that it's bad

788
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 3: to have better velocity.

789
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 2: This is the first time I've heard this.

790
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:37,080
Speaker 4: When it comes to I'm just saying, in the context

791
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:40,440
Speaker 4: of injury risk, better velocity does not necessarily mean for

792
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:41,200
Speaker 4: a guy who has.

793
00:33:41,280 --> 00:33:43,040
Speaker 5: Injured injury prone as humane.

794
00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:45,920
Speaker 1: Huh. I would.

795
00:33:47,920 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: I wouldn't mind a ramp up from zos Azara and

796
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 4: do what Alec is doing. Chris Bassett is doing, not

797
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,600
Speaker 4: ninety seven. I wouldn't mind a ramp up in spring training.

798
00:33:56,640 --> 00:33:58,959
Speaker 4: I'm just saying, Hey, if it works for Chris Bassett

799
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 4: and Alec Manoa, then I guess it works for others.

800
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 1: We'll see. Well, Nick Palk, the fact he got a

801
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: little bit defensive there at the end tells me that

802
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,799
Speaker 1: there's something that you're a little concerned with. I mean,

803
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 1: you just kind of came back a little bit here

804
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 1: where at the end there.

805
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 2: You're like, damn that was such a ridiculous statement.

806
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,359
Speaker 1: Ridiculous or not, there's something about that that first one.

807
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:21,439
Speaker 1: You were so clear, you know you're out of debt.

808
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: Mers you just let it. You just kind of walked off,

809
00:34:23,239 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 1: you dropped the bike something that you went back there

810
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:27,840
Speaker 1: and you were you were punching at the end. You

811
00:34:27,960 --> 00:34:31,719
Speaker 1: got real personal there. I kind of feel like there's

812
00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:32,400
Speaker 1: something there where you.

813
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: Do again it's about me and not the player, right, No,

814
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 2: this time it.

815
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 1: Was about the player. This time, to me, it was

816
00:34:39,080 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: about the player and the fact that the player again

817
00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 1: you know where they're going. In terms of the starting pitcher,

818
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 1: is the forty six starting pitcher off the board, as

819
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,520
Speaker 1: they said before a little this in the sixties. In

820
00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 1: terms of pitcher overall going, uh, the trick is. And

821
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:54,200
Speaker 1: the problem is with Lizardo. It's this tantalizing thing of

822
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:58,760
Speaker 1: a guy who has these brilliant moments, but he can't

823
00:34:59,000 --> 00:35:01,560
Speaker 1: stay on the field, he can't take the ball every

824
00:35:01,600 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 1: fifth day. And last year, believe it or not, that

825
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:06,279
Speaker 1: hundred innings that was a career high for him in

826
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: Major League Baseball. And that is a problem for me.

827
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:10,880
Speaker 1: I want to I want to use over certain pictures

828
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 1: one thing to clarify.

829
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,799
Speaker 3: No no no no no no no means continue to find.

830
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 3: That's absolutely fine, not about on your own. You stay

831
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 3: sixties for consensus? Do you mean sty cir consensus Pitcher

832
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:23,799
Speaker 3: over all the forty six So I said forty six

833
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:25,800
Speaker 3: sp so fast, but you're.

834
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 1: Still at thirty something, which is even understanding.

835
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,040
Speaker 2: But you're saying I'm double, which is which.

836
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 1: Is absolutely You've got him ahead of I assume the

837
00:35:32,160 --> 00:35:32,600
Speaker 1: guys like I.

838
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: Wanted to understand what we're working with here.

839
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 1: You can't have him over those guys that have been there,

840
00:35:37,719 --> 00:35:39,839
Speaker 1: done that at the big league level. That has how

841
00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:41,839
Speaker 1: I feel about it very far. I'm not saying if

842
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:44,320
Speaker 1: you can't take a guy like Lozardo for the upside,

843
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 1: and I get that, you can't take him where you

844
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: want to take him, I think that's my big problem.

845
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:49,760
Speaker 1: So I'm going to give.

846
00:35:49,680 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 3: Him fast is farther away from the consensus.

847
00:35:52,920 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 1: Don't kiss my end. Don't be nice to me just

848
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:56,600
Speaker 1: because you like just you know, I'm just trying to

849
00:35:56,719 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: me this whole. That's really good, Joe, that's really SMARTE

850
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:03,200
Speaker 1: far from respect person.

851
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 5: What you're saying.

852
00:36:04,120 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: Clear, he's farther away from the consensus, yes than I

853
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:08,000
Speaker 1: in terms.

854
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,520
Speaker 5: Of oh I have him in the sixties exactly, but

855
00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,040
Speaker 5: he is the sixty second picture.

856
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 2: He's the forty sixth starting.

857
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 1: Forty sixth starting pitcher of the sixty.

858
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 3: Seconds in the sixties of starting pitchers. I am in

859
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 3: the thirties. I just want that to be understood.

860
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you're still way ahead, but you're still thirty

861
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 1: as opposed to know Yeah yeah, sure, yeah, yeah yeah

862
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:35,160
Speaker 1: sure the point yeah yeah yeah. All right, let's get

863
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 1: to another guy here, because right now we've got Alex

864
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 1: Fast ahead of Nick Pollock three two. So all right, Champ,

865
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,840
Speaker 1: coming back to you here, Hunter Brown. Now things are

866
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,600
Speaker 1: set up well for you here because I'm a fan

867
00:36:46,960 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 1: and just like last year, I was a fan of

868
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 1: Christian Hoveer and people saying, oh, he's looking to shut

869
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 1: the rodation. That was nonsense. Somebody's gonna get hurt, something's

870
00:36:53,239 --> 00:36:56,080
Speaker 1: gonna happen. I remember Jacob Arizi showed up there too

871
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,000
Speaker 1: in a town and people wanted to drop Christian Hobvier.

872
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 1: They got all sad and be well, if you held on,

873
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 1: things went well. Now I'm not saying he's Christian Javier.

874
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:07,960
Speaker 1: Nobody really is. But Hunter Brown certainly has a pedigree,

875
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,719
Speaker 1: certainly has that dual eligibility to SPRP, which you gotta love.

876
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: He's going into a situation where there's opportunity in this

877
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,759
Speaker 1: rotation as Houston is a defending champs. Yes, they're gonna

878
00:37:17,760 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: be without Altuve for a while, but let's talk about

879
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 1: it here. Give me the four to one one one

880
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:24,359
Speaker 1: Hunter Brown and why people should be drafting him.

881
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,440
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, so I'm actually pretty close to the sp consensus,

882
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 3: which is sixty two. I have him a fifty one

883
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 3: fast and has him in the eighties and he's just

884
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:33,200
Speaker 3: not even gonna touch him here.

885
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: And you have a great situation for Hunter Brown.

886
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,320
Speaker 3: First and foremost of course, he has the fifth rotation

887
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 3: spontlets Mculoris's hurt.

888
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 2: Who knows when that is coming back.

889
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 3: He's starting to throw a little bit, but he's had

890
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,080
Speaker 3: injury questions all all his career, and plitching for the

891
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:49,560
Speaker 3: Astros is just an amazing thing. You have wins on

892
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:51,640
Speaker 3: your side, You have the development on your side, which

893
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:53,759
Speaker 3: has been proven over the years. You also have a

894
00:37:53,800 --> 00:37:56,839
Speaker 3: fantastic defense on your side. Hunter Brown from a skill

895
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,280
Speaker 3: set perspective, I mean, he came in and he dominated

896
00:37:59,360 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 3: last year.

897
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 2: He throw harbor, the fastball, has two great secondaries.

898
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:05,800
Speaker 3: It's all there, and it's just kind of easy for

899
00:38:05,880 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 3: you to go and get this in your leagues at

900
00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:08,759
Speaker 3: sixty two.

901
00:38:09,160 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 2: I mean, I'm a big fan of that. I don't

902
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 2: really know what else there is to say.

903
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: He's going around guys in the consensus that are okay,

904
00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 3: but they're not really guys are going to push the needle,

905
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 3: while Hunter Brown is in this prime situation to actually

906
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,120
Speaker 3: change how your league goes as opposed to taking someone

907
00:38:26,160 --> 00:38:27,920
Speaker 3: that is pretty similar to other things you'll find on

908
00:38:28,000 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 3: the wire.

909
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 1: Lance Pacolor certainly has had his issues once again. Now

910
00:38:31,600 --> 00:38:33,279
Speaker 1: there are all these guys that teases us with the

911
00:38:33,360 --> 00:38:37,520
Speaker 1: electric stuff, but you know, unfortunately can't stay on the field.

912
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 1: And to me, at the end of the day, I mean,

913
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 1: you're starting at a Deficits bad enough, injuries are going

914
00:38:41,800 --> 00:38:46,319
Speaker 1: to happen. Hunder Brown's very intriguing. He is very inexpensive.

915
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: Alex fast why are you so down on Hunter Brown?

916
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:53,520
Speaker 5: So it's not that I'm down on Hunter Brown. I

917
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:55,319
Speaker 5: recognize that there is upside there.

918
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,840
Speaker 4: I just don't think that people are baking in the

919
00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:01,560
Speaker 4: warts that are there right, are quick to point out,

920
00:39:01,600 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 4: you know, there was a fantastic pitching Ninja gift that

921
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:07,080
Speaker 4: showed the similar mechanics between him and Justin Verlander, while

922
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 4: you know, then came out and was like, yeah, but

923
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 4: they're very different four seamers, and they are right. The

924
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 4: one thing that I wanted to keep track of was

925
00:39:15,200 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 4: what was going to happen with Hunter Brown's walk rate?

926
00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 5: Right, if we go back to his minor.

927
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 4: League career, we have a thirteen percent walk rate in

928
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 4: Double A in fifty innings, then we have a ten

929
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 4: percent walk rate in TRIPAA over fifty innings. Then we

930
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:31,920
Speaker 4: have an eleven percent walk rate in twenty twenty two

931
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,319
Speaker 4: over one hundred and six innings, and we already saw

932
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,520
Speaker 4: about a nine percent walk rate over twenty innings. And

933
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:41,080
Speaker 4: I don't think that's necessarily going to get better for him.

934
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 4: And what's happening in spring training, he's already jumping up

935
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:46,960
Speaker 4: the walks. He does not have the command that we

936
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 4: have what we want to see from Hunter Brown. I

937
00:39:50,200 --> 00:39:52,800
Speaker 4: think there is upside there. I don't deny that, but

938
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 4: we also have the fact that when it comes to Houston,

939
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,640
Speaker 4: they have shown as an organization that they are going

940
00:39:59,719 --> 00:40:01,960
Speaker 4: to take get easy with their younger pitchers. We saw

941
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:04,360
Speaker 4: it with Christian Javier last year didn't get one hundred

942
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,360
Speaker 4: and fifty innings. We saw it with Luis Garcia.

943
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 5: We even saw it with Joe Musgrove when he was

944
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 5: a part of that organization.

945
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,560
Speaker 4: They said, great, you're going to start in relief and

946
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 4: then guess what, We're going to transition you into a

947
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:15,799
Speaker 4: little bit of a starting pitcher and then we're going

948
00:40:15,840 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 4: to let you shine in a year or two. We

949
00:40:17,640 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 4: have data that shows that, and we saw that a

950
00:40:20,080 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 4: little bit with Hunter Brown last year. While I do

951
00:40:22,719 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 4: understand that he is the number five right now, Lance

952
00:40:25,000 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 4: mccullors is already throwing again, and while he's not going

953
00:40:28,080 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 4: to make Opening Day, he will be back. Either he

954
00:40:30,680 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 4: comes back and we see a six man rotation or

955
00:40:33,239 --> 00:40:35,520
Speaker 4: we're relying on another person that's going to get hurt.

956
00:40:35,600 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 4: So now we have two issues that we're dealing with,

957
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 4: a lack of surety about playing time with an all

958
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:42,600
Speaker 4: but guarantee that we're going to get a one hundred

959
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 4: and fifty innings or fewer, and command issues that could

960
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,480
Speaker 4: really rear its head. There are warts there and people

961
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:50,799
Speaker 4: need to take them into account more.

962
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 1: How many stars does he make Alex Fast this year?

963
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 4: I think he can make under twenty. I think he

964
00:40:56,800 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 4: can make fifteen to eighteen starts.

965
00:40:59,000 --> 00:41:01,439
Speaker 1: All right, what's your now, Nick Pollock on Hunter Browns.

966
00:41:01,480 --> 00:41:05,600
Speaker 1: More than twenty more than twenty? Yeah, wow, more than

967
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 1: twenty potential starts for a picture going where he's currently

968
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:13,839
Speaker 1: going here, that's pretty tantalizing here as a sixty second

969
00:41:13,920 --> 00:41:16,279
Speaker 1: starting pitcher off the board for the Houston Astros of

970
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: defending champs. To me, that's a fun risk I want

971
00:41:19,480 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 1: to take. And you know what, I kind of like

972
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 1: the old school feel of that, hey, starting the bullpen

973
00:41:24,440 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: kind of thing, because, you know what, that's how we

974
00:41:26,320 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 1: used to develop pictures back in my day. I remember

975
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 1: Johan Santana used to throw out of the boop and

976
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,720
Speaker 1: then eventually became a cy young. A lot of pictures

977
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:36,080
Speaker 1: used to start out that way in the eighties and

978
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,399
Speaker 1: nineties and even into the early two thousands there where

979
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 1: that was part of the training ground was getting to

980
00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 1: that point. I don't think that's a bad thing. I

981
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: think that actually builds some confidence. The one thing I

982
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,759
Speaker 1: will say, though, you didn't make a great point about

983
00:41:46,760 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: the walk rate, comes to Hunter Brown. But the strikeout

984
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: rate it's pretty darn good too. So he gets in trouble,

985
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:53,600
Speaker 1: he can get out of some of that trouble. I

986
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:54,920
Speaker 1: don't look at him to be a good guy in

987
00:41:54,960 --> 00:41:58,160
Speaker 1: a quality start league, but I do look for him

988
00:41:58,160 --> 00:41:59,239
Speaker 1: to be a picture that I want to take a

989
00:41:59,360 --> 00:42:02,400
Speaker 1: chance on. Ing Gosh, I'm just such a sucker for

990
00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:06,399
Speaker 1: that RPSP eligibility, So go ahead, put it on the board. Yes,

991
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:11,000
Speaker 1: Hunter Brown. Once again, Nick Pollock has tied the score,

992
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 1: so we are tied here. I hate when we're tied.

993
00:42:13,360 --> 00:42:16,440
Speaker 1: Nobody ties me. Last year, the tiebreaker question was Jacob Degram.

994
00:42:17,160 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 1: This year, we got a couple bonus this year. So

995
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:23,440
Speaker 1: we've got two pictures here, Michael Kopek, who is obviously

996
00:42:23,640 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 1: this great enigma, and Nadi Avaldi for the Texas Rangers.

997
00:42:27,040 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 1: So Copec the Chicago White Sox picture du jour here

998
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:32,719
Speaker 1: for the last few years as a prospect, the guy

999
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 1: who has incredible radar, guns stuff, quote unquote, but has

1000
00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,880
Speaker 1: struggled at times to harness all of that at the

1001
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 1: major league level. And then Nadie Evaldi, a guy that

1002
00:42:42,360 --> 00:42:44,319
Speaker 1: once again gives us some good moments here and there.

1003
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,960
Speaker 1: He's had some injuries, he's had some better trajectory for

1004
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 1: his career. Last year a three eight seven ERA, but

1005
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:51,480
Speaker 1: again just threw one hundred and nine innings last year

1006
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 1: Copek at one hundred and nineteen innings. So Coopek and

1007
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:56,320
Speaker 1: e Evaldi, these guys are going kind of close to

1008
00:42:56,400 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 1: each other. I'm curious. Let's go with you since you're

1009
00:42:59,280 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 1: the rating champ here, Nick Pollock, Michael Kopek, Nadi Evaldi.

1010
00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:03,160
Speaker 5: Who do you like?

1011
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:06,640
Speaker 1: Who do you dislike? Tell me why, and hopefully one

1012
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 1: of you makes a good argument here and somehow courage

1013
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: my favor.

1014
00:43:10,320 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 3: So here's the thing, Michael Kopek. You could go with

1015
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,759
Speaker 3: for certain reasons. You had a knee injury last year

1016
00:43:17,400 --> 00:43:19,800
Speaker 3: that really messed him up through the season. He was

1017
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:22,239
Speaker 3: up and down with the velocity start by start, and

1018
00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:26,400
Speaker 3: getting that repaired makes you think, Okay, he's going to

1019
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 3: be all right. However, what I've seen so far is

1020
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 3: not the Michael Kopec that we've wanted him to be.

1021
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,200
Speaker 3: We've wanted him to be ninety seven miles per hour

1022
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 3: with it, with a fantastic slider and curveball, and I

1023
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:38,960
Speaker 3: cannot trust that this is the year that Michael Kopeks

1024
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 3: all of a sudden just going to click in and

1025
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 3: have the velocity has not had that velocity in the

1026
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 3: spring training you see Nathani Evaldi. The big worry for

1027
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 3: him was that the velocity was down in the second

1028
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 3: half last year. It was down in ninety three ninety four,

1029
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 3: and that was terrifying. He still found a way to

1030
00:43:53,320 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 3: have a decent e array in that time, but this

1031
00:43:55,800 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 3: was not the picture that he wants to trust for

1032
00:43:57,600 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 3: a full year. The good news he's already at ninety six. Yes,

1033
00:44:00,200 --> 00:44:02,640
Speaker 3: he already has had a small moment of delay, but

1034
00:44:02,800 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 3: he's e pitched the other day.

1035
00:44:04,320 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 2: He looks good to go.

1036
00:44:05,560 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 3: The Rangers should be a decent team to pitch for

1037
00:44:08,080 --> 00:44:11,399
Speaker 3: as well this season. I think Nathan Uvaldi is going

1038
00:44:11,480 --> 00:44:14,400
Speaker 3: to be a more consistent and easier decision as a

1039
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,840
Speaker 3: fantasy manager than Michael Kopek, where you will not know

1040
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 3: what you're going to get on a given day. Nathan Valdi,

1041
00:44:21,200 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 3: you draft him and he's going to help your team

1042
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 3: right out of the get go. You're going to get

1043
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 3: a higher chance of wins as he goes later on

1044
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:31,280
Speaker 3: into games as well. I think Aovaldi is the choice

1045
00:44:31,320 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 3: to make today, all.

1046
00:44:32,840 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 1: Right, so Evaldi is the guy that you are choosing again.

1047
00:44:35,920 --> 00:44:37,799
Speaker 1: One hundred and eight two innings in twenty twenty one

1048
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 1: for Evaldi, that was a pretty good season for him.

1049
00:44:40,600 --> 00:44:42,120
Speaker 1: You can get anything close to that if you do

1050
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 1: look year over here. Eovaldi did have that era kind

1051
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,400
Speaker 1: of closed. Some of the other ratios were kind of

1052
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 1: in that neighborhood, but unfortunately health was the problem holding

1053
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 1: him back. Copek a little bit of an enigma. Alex

1054
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: Fast Ivaldi or Kopec who would rather have in twenty

1055
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:57,439
Speaker 1: twenty three?

1056
00:44:57,880 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 4: To me, I think they are fantastic points made, and

1057
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 4: I'm all so going to go with Nathany Evaldi. And

1058
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 4: here's why we're trying to gauge the difference between floor

1059
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,360
Speaker 4: and ceiling, right, we want to know where the difference

1060
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:08,640
Speaker 4: is between floor and ceiling.

1061
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:09,480
Speaker 5: And I think you can make.

1062
00:45:09,440 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 4: An argument that not only is the floor higher for

1063
00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 4: Nathan Yivaldi. I mean, my goodness, we saw you know,

1064
00:45:15,200 --> 00:45:18,279
Speaker 4: the five point. You know, we've seen poor statistics from

1065
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 4: Copec in the past, but the ceiling is also higher

1066
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:24,600
Speaker 4: for Nathany Ivaldi. Right, we know that theoretically you can

1067
00:45:24,680 --> 00:45:27,000
Speaker 4: get one hundred and fifty one hundred and sixty innings

1068
00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 4: out of him. And while Nick brings up a very

1069
00:45:28,680 --> 00:45:31,440
Speaker 4: good point about the foresemer last year, he went to

1070
00:45:31,560 --> 00:45:34,640
Speaker 4: that splitter a little bit more when the foreseen velocity

1071
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:36,720
Speaker 4: was not trending in the right direction.

1072
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 5: And what did we see?

1073
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:41,919
Speaker 4: Great results? A one ninety three wOBA, a twenty four

1074
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:43,839
Speaker 4: percent swinging strike rate.

1075
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 1: Right.

1076
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 5: So the question is, then, if Nathanyivaldi.

1077
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 4: Is not able to return with that velocity which he

1078
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,520
Speaker 4: has been in spring training. Right, he's obviously been sidelined

1079
00:45:52,520 --> 00:45:54,400
Speaker 4: a little bit with this injury that he's dealing with,

1080
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 4: it doesn't look to be too big of a deal.

1081
00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 4: But when he's back, he's already sitting at that foreseam velocity,

1082
00:45:59,320 --> 00:46:01,520
Speaker 4: which means, hey, okay, we're getting the four se and

1083
00:46:01,600 --> 00:46:04,400
Speaker 4: velocity now we're also getting the splitter with the improved

1084
00:46:04,440 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 4: whift rate. Overall, put that together, and you're dealing with

1085
00:46:07,800 --> 00:46:10,200
Speaker 4: the Nathan Yavaldi that you like to see, which is

1086
00:46:10,239 --> 00:46:13,000
Speaker 4: a mid to high three ERA, a good strike rate,

1087
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:15,080
Speaker 4: and a good team behind him to get him a

1088
00:46:15,160 --> 00:46:17,320
Speaker 4: good amount of wins. But if you're listening to that

1089
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:19,120
Speaker 4: and you say, but Alex, you already hit the nail

1090
00:46:19,160 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 4: on the head. We're already dealing with some injury concerns.

1091
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,839
Speaker 4: Who are we comparing him to Michael Kopek, a guy

1092
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 4: that hasn't been able to throw one hundred and ten

1093
00:46:27,120 --> 00:46:28,840
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty innings over the course of his

1094
00:46:28,960 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 4: career so far. So if we can say that the

1095
00:46:31,560 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 4: injury concerns are a wash when we're talking about this

1096
00:46:34,040 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 4: two guys, then go with the high upside guy. Go

1097
00:46:37,040 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 4: with the guy who has been there before. Go with

1098
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:42,440
Speaker 4: the guy who is showing the higher velocity in spring training,

1099
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 4: sitting where he needs to sit.

1100
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:45,280
Speaker 5: Go with Nathan Yivaldi.

1101
00:46:45,960 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 1: All right, so you both at a Evaldi, which I

1102
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 1: also would have said. So now we're officially in extra

1103
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,279
Speaker 1: innings here, so we're gonna have to put somebody on

1104
00:46:52,360 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 1: second base. So here we go. We go back to

1105
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 1: an Aldi. But a goodie here. Jacob deGrom right now

1106
00:46:58,560 --> 00:47:01,720
Speaker 1: is going as these six starting off the board. Spencer

1107
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: Strider is going as the seventh starting pitcher over the board,

1108
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:07,440
Speaker 1: Alex Fast. Who would you rather have in twenty twenty three,

1109
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:09,280
Speaker 1: Jacob de Gram or Spencer Strider?

1110
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 5: I would rather have. I'm digging in my heels. I

1111
00:47:13,640 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 5: would rather have Jacob de Gram.

1112
00:47:16,080 --> 00:47:19,320
Speaker 4: When Jacob de Gram is pitching, he is unarguably the

1113
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:23,200
Speaker 4: best pitcher in all of baseball. Okay, you can say

1114
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 4: whatever you want about Spencer Strider. He could break the

1115
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,120
Speaker 4: k you know, the amount of ks that a pitcher

1116
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,640
Speaker 4: records over the course of the season. We are in

1117
00:47:31,120 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 4: uncharted territory when it comes to Spencer Strider. There is

1118
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 4: a two pitch mix. Historically, two pitch mixes do not

1119
00:47:38,480 --> 00:47:41,480
Speaker 4: succeed super well over the course of the year. Again,

1120
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:43,879
Speaker 4: he is in a class of his own because when

1121
00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:45,879
Speaker 4: it comes to that two pitch mix, no one has

1122
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 4: the four seemer he has. No one has the slider

1123
00:47:48,960 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 4: that he has. But when the two of them are

1124
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 4: pitching at the same time, there isn't a doubt. Right,

1125
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 4: let's do that for a second. Hey, I say, I'm

1126
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,279
Speaker 4: gonna give you a hundred innings of Spencer Strider. I'm

1127
00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,040
Speaker 4: gonna give you one hundred innings of Jacob de Gram.

1128
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:00,920
Speaker 4: You're not gonna say, let me think about it for

1129
00:48:00,960 --> 00:48:02,960
Speaker 4: a second. You're gonna say, give me Jacob de Grom. Right,

1130
00:48:03,400 --> 00:48:05,360
Speaker 4: and what point do we get to where the answer

1131
00:48:05,400 --> 00:48:07,680
Speaker 4: is Spencer Strider? When I say it's eighty innings versu

1132
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,000
Speaker 4: one hundred. When I say it's seventy innings versus one

1133
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 4: hundred when I say it's sixty. Where is that line?

1134
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:16,000
Speaker 4: Don't even have to draw it for yourself. The arsenal

1135
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,960
Speaker 4: is there for Jacob de Grom. I think that he

1136
00:48:19,120 --> 00:48:21,160
Speaker 4: is going to be able to whatever the amount of

1137
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 4: innings total is, put up better numbers for you than

1138
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 4: Spencer Strider by the end of the year.

1139
00:48:27,040 --> 00:48:30,479
Speaker 1: Nick Pollock, the floor is yours, Spencer Strider or Jacob

1140
00:48:30,520 --> 00:48:30,839
Speaker 1: de Gram.

1141
00:48:32,200 --> 00:48:34,279
Speaker 2: Spencer Strider is the correct answer. I'm going to tell

1142
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:34,600
Speaker 2: you why.

1143
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,600
Speaker 3: I first and foremost you say that two pitch pictures

1144
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,680
Speaker 3: doesn't historically is not worked. There's someone named Randy Johnson

1145
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:44,000
Speaker 3: that maybe did a fastball slider and maybe succeeded doing

1146
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:44,839
Speaker 3: that for a long time.

1147
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 1: There's also a Scumber, and there's.

1148
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:49,680
Speaker 3: Also maybe Jacob de Gram that essentially is a two

1149
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 3: pitch picture with fastball sliders. Right now, who's making that work?

1150
00:48:53,239 --> 00:48:54,920
Speaker 3: Sure he has a change up, he has a curball.

1151
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,600
Speaker 3: He's actually had quotes saying why would I throw these?

1152
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:01,040
Speaker 3: Because I have my fast one slider better, and I

1153
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:02,799
Speaker 3: just I allow a hind on that and go why

1154
00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:06,480
Speaker 3: did I throw that. Here's a problem with drafting Jacob

1155
00:49:06,560 --> 00:49:09,280
Speaker 3: deGrom is we all know that on a per start

1156
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,279
Speaker 3: basis he is better. But where you're getting him is

1157
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,320
Speaker 3: where you're putting yourself in position of too much risk.

1158
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 3: It's not a question of one hundred innings versus one forty.

1159
00:49:18,920 --> 00:49:22,560
Speaker 3: It's a question of forty innings in one fifty or so.

1160
00:49:22,719 --> 00:49:26,680
Speaker 3: You are putting yourself in the way of losing this valuable,

1161
00:49:26,800 --> 00:49:30,040
Speaker 3: valuable draft pick, while Spencer Stridder does not carry that

1162
00:49:30,280 --> 00:49:33,200
Speaker 3: same floor. It's that simple. We know the skill set

1163
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 3: of Spencer's strider, we know he's an elite starter a

1164
00:49:35,840 --> 00:49:40,760
Speaker 3: per start basis. I'm going with that security, especially early

1165
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:41,440
Speaker 3: in the draft.

1166
00:49:42,440 --> 00:49:45,719
Speaker 1: It's also a much better team the Atlanta Braves, you

1167
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,920
Speaker 1: know when you think about that too. Again, we talked

1168
00:49:48,920 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 1: about this on the Football Show, were talking about the

1169
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 1: Baseball Show. To the the ecosystem there of Atlanta defensively, offensively,

1170
00:49:55,400 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 1: it's a much better situation potentially for him. The one

1171
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,360
Speaker 1: hundred innings is very intriguing argument. Alex Fast. You know,

1172
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 1: the problem is you don't see one hundred innings from

1173
00:50:05,120 --> 00:50:07,600
Speaker 1: Jacob deGrom last couple years, and then again twenty twenty

1174
00:50:07,760 --> 00:50:10,040
Speaker 1: is what it was. So obviously a different scenario there

1175
00:50:10,120 --> 00:50:14,400
Speaker 1: for Jacob de Grom, but that high to have to

1176
00:50:14,440 --> 00:50:16,759
Speaker 1: take that kind of risk, I just can't get there.

1177
00:50:16,880 --> 00:50:18,640
Speaker 1: And I can't believe two years in a row you're

1178
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 1: gonna lose on the same question. That's why I can't believe.

1179
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: It's almost like when you started saying, Jacob de Gram,

1180
00:50:23,280 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 1: you saw it was like three balls there and bases

1181
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:29,200
Speaker 1: were loaded, and Nick Pollock knew you were just gonna

1182
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,000
Speaker 1: walk in that last block. That's what it felt like.

1183
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:33,160
Speaker 1: You could see him on the YouTube channel if you

1184
00:50:33,200 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 1: haven't a ray subscribed to the YouTube channel, because these

1185
00:50:35,160 --> 00:50:36,880
Speaker 1: just kind of shows you got to watch where he

1186
00:50:36,960 --> 00:50:38,400
Speaker 1: just kind of put his hands behind his head and

1187
00:50:39,280 --> 00:50:41,600
Speaker 1: you were like Icarus, Alex, you were just flying so

1188
00:50:41,760 --> 00:50:42,719
Speaker 1: close to this there.

1189
00:50:42,760 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 4: But Jacob, it's so funny to lose on the greatest

1190
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 4: picture in the world, crass me up.

1191
00:50:47,760 --> 00:50:49,800
Speaker 1: But to be the greatest picture in the world in fantasy,

1192
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 1: you gotta be out there for thirty starts, And that

1193
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:54,880
Speaker 1: I think is the problem. It's we always want to

1194
00:50:55,680 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 1: think the best spring is that eternal optimistic time of year.

1195
00:51:00,000 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 1: I kind of want to be a realist at this

1196
00:51:01,680 --> 00:51:05,120
Speaker 1: point about Jacob de Grom, I'm hoping and wishing if

1197
00:51:05,160 --> 00:51:07,880
Speaker 1: this was Jacob de Grom at SP fifteen, I'm in,

1198
00:51:08,280 --> 00:51:12,240
Speaker 1: let's go. But he's right now going ahead of some guys.

1199
00:51:12,400 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you had to be honest with you justin

1200
00:51:15,120 --> 00:51:18,880
Speaker 1: Verland or even Woodruff, Shaye McClanahan. I mean, there's a

1201
00:51:18,920 --> 00:51:20,520
Speaker 1: lot of guys now still that you can make that

1202
00:51:20,600 --> 00:51:22,719
Speaker 1: case or just feel a little bit safer. And I

1203
00:51:22,840 --> 00:51:24,680
Speaker 1: know you like the whole you want to be aggressive.

1204
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 1: You're not first year, last all that kind of mentality.

1205
00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:29,360
Speaker 1: At the end of the day, I hate saying this

1206
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 1: is something that hurts my soul. Nick Pollock, you have

1207
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 1: now one back to back years here on the Great

1208
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 1: Pitching Debate. So congratulations, you win my undying respect. You

1209
00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:44,080
Speaker 1: already have my gratitude, you already have my love. But yes,

1210
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 1: I mean I wanted a little variant here. I wanted

1211
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:48,480
Speaker 1: Fast to get one this year so that next year

1212
00:51:48,520 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 1: we could come back and have it kind of be

1213
00:51:50,400 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: the tie breaker. But Fast, I feel like you're quickly

1214
00:51:53,760 --> 00:51:55,920
Speaker 1: becoming like the Buffalo Bills of this competition. We've got

1215
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:57,080
Speaker 1: to stop the bleeding here.

1216
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:02,640
Speaker 5: I'll say this. There's a fantastic stat that I think

1217
00:52:02,640 --> 00:52:02,759
Speaker 5: it is.

1218
00:52:02,840 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 4: Jordan Rosenblum tweeted that is how many starts does it

1219
00:52:06,160 --> 00:52:08,600
Speaker 4: take each starting picture to accrue the same amount of

1220
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:11,759
Speaker 4: fantasy value as Jacob de Gram. He didn't put out

1221
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 4: that stat about Spencer Strider, who, by the way, it

1222
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 4: would take about one and a half to two starts.

1223
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 5: To accrue the same value. But I understand.

1224
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 4: I will hang my hat on the Jacob de Gram mantle.

1225
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,880
Speaker 4: I don't know how you would finish that phrase, and

1226
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:25,399
Speaker 4: I will.

1227
00:52:25,480 --> 00:52:27,720
Speaker 5: I will graciously accept defeat.

1228
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 4: And these are always such a blast to do to

1229
00:52:31,280 --> 00:52:33,800
Speaker 4: be able to, you know, just to get out the

1230
00:52:33,880 --> 00:52:36,000
Speaker 4: aggression and pretend. I like to pretend we're on Judge

1231
00:52:36,040 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 4: Judy or my Little Judge Judy, and I are.

1232
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 1: Called Judge Judy. In the past, I've had people many

1233
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 1: times on the street have mistaken me for Judge Judy

1234
00:52:44,680 --> 00:52:47,200
Speaker 1: all the time. You know, I will say this to you,

1235
00:52:47,440 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 1: and you're not wrong. It's the quality of the Jacob

1236
00:52:49,920 --> 00:52:53,279
Speaker 1: de Gram starts are in just they're just worldly. It's

1237
00:52:53,320 --> 00:52:56,759
Speaker 1: something that's in a different universe. But at the same time,

1238
00:52:56,880 --> 00:52:58,239
Speaker 1: you know, so many people are playing in these head

1239
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:01,760
Speaker 1: to head formats. Now, where you make an investment that early,

1240
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:03,839
Speaker 1: not only does it set you back because you don't

1241
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:06,799
Speaker 1: have you've missed out on the hitting, but now you've

1242
00:53:06,800 --> 00:53:08,920
Speaker 1: angered your rotation to a picture who has now dragged

1243
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:10,480
Speaker 1: you down as well. And I think that, to me

1244
00:53:10,600 --> 00:53:13,320
Speaker 1: is where it really starts to go. I'm shocked that

1245
00:53:13,400 --> 00:53:15,279
Speaker 1: we got to this point in the season here in

1246
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:18,880
Speaker 1: draft season, where Jacob de Gram's discount isn't greater. I

1247
00:53:18,960 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 1: understand the early adp. Everyone's just josy and throwing things together,

1248
00:53:22,360 --> 00:53:24,440
Speaker 1: especially because he had an injury in spring training like

1249
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:27,280
Speaker 1: he had you in spring training. I'm like, what's the problem.

1250
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 1: I just want to shake somebody and say, can we

1251
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:31,600
Speaker 1: please get a discount on Jacob Gram. I've gotta draft

1252
00:53:31,640 --> 00:53:33,480
Speaker 1: tonight and I can't wait to see what the salary

1253
00:53:33,520 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 1: cap league prices on Jacob Degram. I can tell you

1254
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 1: I threw him back into the pile in that league

1255
00:53:39,360 --> 00:53:41,000
Speaker 1: because he was gonna be fifty plus dollars and I

1256
00:53:41,040 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 1: ain't spending fifty dollars on Jacob Degram. But I just

1257
00:53:44,040 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 1: can't do that. Nick Pollock, what are you gonna do

1258
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 1: with your fictitious winnings? Here this year for year two

1259
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 1: is that spent it on?

1260
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:50,560
Speaker 5: This card is.

1261
00:53:50,600 --> 00:53:53,400
Speaker 2: Alex Fast right here and here here is like a

1262
00:53:53,880 --> 00:53:54,439
Speaker 2: rookie card.

1263
00:53:54,760 --> 00:53:58,320
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, Oh wow, all that's value.

1264
00:53:58,520 --> 00:53:59,280
Speaker 2: That's pure value.

1265
00:53:59,320 --> 00:53:59,840
Speaker 5: You're smatching.

1266
00:54:01,160 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 3: What is the verdict for Nick Pollock to win above

1267
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,440
Speaker 3: Alex Fast? Thank you so much, Joe for really I

1268
00:54:11,560 --> 00:54:12,919
Speaker 3: know how much that just hurt your soul.

1269
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 2: Apparently.

1270
00:54:16,280 --> 00:54:18,440
Speaker 1: Well again, I like good competition, and you guys had

1271
00:54:18,480 --> 00:54:20,319
Speaker 1: good competition. Alex Fast. You came out of the gate

1272
00:54:20,880 --> 00:54:23,520
Speaker 1: hot and heavy, and then you know, maybe next year

1273
00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 1: you train for the marathon, not the sprint. That's you

1274
00:54:25,320 --> 00:54:28,080
Speaker 1: want to say. Gentlemen, It's always so great to talk

1275
00:54:28,080 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 1: to you. Pitture List is the place everybody if you're

1276
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:32,920
Speaker 1: trying to get your data. The team there is unbelievable.

1277
00:54:33,560 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 1: They have real statistics, not made faked ones like we do.

1278
00:54:37,239 --> 00:54:39,759
Speaker 1: Like we made up here. Nick Pollock, give us the

1279
00:54:40,480 --> 00:54:43,160
Speaker 1: quick picture list plug here real quick at the end

1280
00:54:43,160 --> 00:54:44,879
Speaker 1: of the show and tell everybody all the fun things

1281
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:46,200
Speaker 1: you got going on this season, because we got a

1282
00:54:46,200 --> 00:54:47,080
Speaker 1: lot of cool stuff happening.

1283
00:54:47,239 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 2: What is happening, guys?

1284
00:54:48,120 --> 00:54:50,799
Speaker 3: We have an amazing daily morning podcast called The First

1285
00:54:50,840 --> 00:54:52,600
Speaker 3: Pitch podcast that you have to listen to all day

1286
00:54:52,640 --> 00:54:55,080
Speaker 3: through the season. Also my plus pitch podcast going over

1287
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 3: all the pitching stuff. But we have pl pro which

1288
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:59,160
Speaker 3: is the best thing to prepare for your drafts, live

1289
00:54:59,280 --> 00:55:03,600
Speaker 3: draft assistance, our PLB projections with ATC which is incredible,

1290
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:07,600
Speaker 3: our season long projections, our auction drafts calculator, our dfs,

1291
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:10,879
Speaker 3: and weekly fantasy projections as well. Go check it out

1292
00:55:10,960 --> 00:55:12,480
Speaker 3: pitch us dot com, Slash Premium.

1293
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:15,080
Speaker 1: Follow both the guys on the Twitter machine at alex

1294
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Speaker 1: Fast eight and at Picture List. Gentlemen, I'm just so

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Speaker 1: grateful for your time. Your energy is infectious. I love

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Speaker 1: you both, and it's great to have these conversations for

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Speaker 1: our audience because these are pictures that a lot of

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Speaker 1: people want to know what your thoughts are, and you know,

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Speaker 1: these are investments that can really make or break leagues.

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Speaker 1: A lot of these guys so great stuff. As always,

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Speaker 1: I can't wait for year three. Alex Fast, We're gonna

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Speaker 1: start to go fund me to start your training for

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Speaker 1: your marathon right here. That'll do it for us. With

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Speaker 1: the story of the game goes on for Alex and Nick,

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Speaker 1: I'm Joey p. We'll see you next time kids. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for listening to the Fantasy Pros Baseball podcast, Follow us

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Fantasy Pros MLB, and subscribe to our

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Speaker 1: YouTube channel at YouTube dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB.