Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Bloomberg
Speaker 1: day Break Geisia podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. There are a
Speaker 1: number of market holidays across the Asia Pacific today, but
Speaker 1: certainly no shortage of headlines, and were days away from
Speaker 1: a national election in Australia. In a moment, I'll be
Speaker 1: joined by Bloomberg's Paul Allen in Sydney for a preview.
Speaker 1: Plus we'll look at the latest ECO data out of
Speaker 1: the US that would include that first quarter GDP report.
Speaker 1: I'll be speaking with George Sippoloni, portfolio manager at Pen
Speaker 1: Mutual Asset Management. But we begin this morning with a
Speaker 1: few of our top stories. In China, a post from
Speaker 1: a CCTV affiliated webwa account says the US has reached
Speaker 1: out to Beijing through various channels to initiate talks on
Speaker 1: the massive tariffs imposed on China. It cited unidentified people
Speaker 1: with knowledge of the matter, but it provided no further detail,
Speaker 1: and it comes on the same day that Ukraine inked
Speaker 1: a long away to deal with Washington for critical minerals.
Speaker 1: The US will now be given privileged access to new
Speaker 1: investment projects to develop things like aluminum, graphite, oil, and
Speaker 1: natural gas. Now, this agreement is seen as critical in
Speaker 1: nurturing President Trump's goodwill toward Kiev in ceasefire talks with Russia.
Speaker 1: After the bell in the States, we got blowout results
Speaker 1: from tech giants Microsoft and Meta, and we got reaction
Speaker 1: from Dan Morgan at Sonova's Trust.
Speaker 2: Madam Microsoft both beat on just about every matrix, and
Speaker 2: I think this kind of sets the tone because we're
Speaker 2: going to go in tomorrow, right, We're going to get
Speaker 2: Apple and Amazon. If they also can have really big beats,
Speaker 2: we can get some good momentum back into the tech
Speaker 2: space and hopefully get the tech stocks to rebound off
Speaker 2: of their lows.
Speaker 1: That's Dan Morgan of Sonova's Trust. Let's take a look
Speaker 1: now at what's going on in Australia with the national
Speaker 1: election happening this weekend. Joining me now for a preview
Speaker 1: is Bloomberg's Paul Allen. He is in Sydney. Paul, it's
Speaker 1: always a pleasure. Thank you so much for joining me.
Speaker 1: If I can, I want to begin with the presence
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump, which may be looming over this election
Speaker 1: in a way that it did during the recent election
Speaker 1: in Canada. Is that a fair statement.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's absolutely a possibility, and we have seen some
Speaker 3: evidence of that happening as well. Doug the main opposition leader,
Speaker 3: Peter Dutton, he's the leader of the Liberal Party, started
Speaker 3: off this campaign with a suite of policies that appeared
Speaker 3: to be borrowed from President Trump, and after what we've
Speaker 3: seen happen in the United States over the first one
Speaker 3: hundred days of Trump's presidency, those policies have been swiftly
Speaker 3: kicked to the curb and that really sped up after
Speaker 3: the US imposed at ten percent tariff on Australia all
Speaker 3: imports from Australia, which nobody was expecting because of course
Speaker 3: the US runs a very rare trade surplus with Australia.
Speaker 3: So he Dutton initially had planned proposed Doge style cuts
Speaker 3: for the civil service. He wanted to end work from
Speaker 3: home for the civil service as well. Both those policies
Speaker 3: got quickly axed and having early in the campaign said
Speaker 3: he could get a good deal out of President Trump
Speaker 3: on trade. There was one debate We've had four in
Speaker 3: total here and in one of the debates he was
Speaker 3: asked if he trusted Donald Trump, and Peter Dutton answered
Speaker 3: I don't know Donald Trump, and he said that a
Speaker 3: number of times before swiftly moving on, so it was
Speaker 3: quite the reversal. So yes, President Trump has cast a
Speaker 3: shadow on the Australian election, absolutely so.
Speaker 1: On the subject of trade, I know that President Trump
Speaker 1: recently flagged possible talks with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Do
Speaker 1: we have any more details on.
Speaker 3: That, We do not. We understand that Anthony Albanesi has
Speaker 3: attempted to contact the President on a number of occasions.
Speaker 3: Those calls have gone unanswered. The suspicion is Australia is
Speaker 3: some way down the queue, behind the lacks of China, obviously, Japan,
Speaker 3: South Korea, and the European Union. Of course, the ten
Speaker 3: percent baseline tariff not particularly much. As I mentioned, the
Speaker 3: US does run a trade surplus with Australia, one of
Speaker 3: the few countries to do so. And also Australia's got
Speaker 3: a very close defense relationship with the United States as well,
Speaker 3: and it's just made a half billion dollar down payment
Speaker 3: on the Orchest program, which will see Australia receive US
Speaker 3: made nuclear submarine, So there's a really close defense relationship
Speaker 3: there as well. Obviously, an eagerness on the Australian side
Speaker 3: to get something sorted out, but not the same sense
Speaker 3: of urgency coming out of the US, it seems.
Speaker 1: So let's put this election in the context of how
Speaker 1: well the economy is performing. From what I understand, there
Speaker 1: is a bit of a housing crisis, infrast rates do
Speaker 1: remain a bit elevated, and we have seen some cost
Speaker 1: of living pressures in Australia. Is do I have that right?
Speaker 3: Yeah, very much. So we'll start with the cost of
Speaker 3: situation because that's a familiar one too many democracies around
Speaker 3: the world. At the moment, inflation has really bitten hard.
Speaker 3: The price of eggs, something that's familiar to US listeners,
Speaker 3: also an issue here in Australia. That was something else
Speaker 3: that came up in the debate, and Peter Dutton, the
Speaker 3: Opposition leader, stumbled on that one, saying a dozen eggs
Speaker 3: was four dollars twenty Australian. The Prime Minister, Anthony Albanezi
Speaker 3: got closer at seven dollars. The actual price is closer
Speaker 3: to eight dollars, but that does underscore the cost of
Speaker 3: living very much an issue, and both major parties are
Speaker 3: going to this election with various flavors of tax relief.
Speaker 3: So whatever happens, life is expected to get easier for consumers.
Speaker 3: Well let's see how that actually eventuates.
Speaker 4: Though.
Speaker 1: Can you give me a sense of the various parties
Speaker 1: in Australia and how they seem to be represented right now?
Speaker 3: Well, there are two major parties, although within that there
Speaker 3: is nuance. The Labor Party in power right now, led
Speaker 3: obviously by Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi. They have a very
Speaker 3: slim majority in the lower House. The House of Representatives
Speaker 3: has one hundred and fifty seats. The Labor government has
Speaker 3: a very narrow majority of just two or three seats,
Speaker 3: and of course I won't get into the nuance of it,
Speaker 3: but they also appoint the speakers, which reduces their count
Speaker 3: by one vote. The opposition Liberal Party is in a
Speaker 3: pretty much a perpetual lockstep coalition with another party called
Speaker 3: the Nationals, which represents rural Australia, so you often hear
Speaker 3: them referred to as the coalition. They are some distance
Speaker 3: behind with just fifty three seats, so they need to
Speaker 3: pick up more than twenty electorates to win powers. So
Speaker 3: the road to government very very difficult for Peter Dutton
Speaker 3: and the coalition and what has made it harder for
Speaker 3: them is that the last election they lost a whole
Speaker 3: series of very wealthy seats, and it's wealthy voters that
Speaker 3: typically vote for Liberal Coalition to so a loose grouping
Speaker 3: of independence that have come to be known as the Teals,
Speaker 3: a teal being a mixture of blue and green, and
Speaker 3: this is made up of wealthy voters who are very
Speaker 3: frustrated with the Coalition's policy on climate over the years.
Speaker 3: The former Prime Minister Scott Morrisson, for example, once took
Speaker 3: a lump of coal into Parliament House. Another former Prime Minister,
Speaker 3: Tony Abbott once labeled climate change as and I quote crap.
Speaker 3: And then we had the devastating bushfires of twenty nineteen
Speaker 3: and that really started this Teal movement which is eaten
Speaker 3: into the Coalition's base. So a big challenge for them
Speaker 3: is to try and first win back all of those
Speaker 3: seats and then try and make some inroads into Labour's majority.
Speaker 1: I'm wondering about the younger voters in Australia and the
Speaker 1: degree to which they may influence the outcome. Is that likely?
Speaker 3: Yeah, A tremendous level of frustration about the situation with
Speaker 3: housing that you mentioned earlier, and that is a perpetual
Speaker 3: feature of the Australian elector landscape. House prices in this
Speaker 3: country are out of control. The median house price in
Speaker 3: Sydney well over a million dollars, the other major cities
Speaker 3: of Melbourne and Brisbane knocking on the door of that
Speaker 3: as well. The rental market is incredibly tight. Getting rental
Speaker 3: accommodation is extremely expensive as well. So young voters are
Speaker 3: really trying to flex their muscles on this issue. There
Speaker 3: is something being offered by both parties for this group
Speaker 3: of people. The Prime Minister Anthony Alberanezi has a pledge
Speaker 3: to spend ten billion dollars to build one hundred thousand homes,
Speaker 3: went to the twenty twenty two election with a similar
Speaker 3: plan and not a great deal of progress there. The
Speaker 3: opposition meanwhile is saying they'll make mortgages tax deductible for
Speaker 3: five years, but that doesn't really address that affordability problem.
Speaker 3: It doesn't make life any easier if you can't amass
Speaker 3: a ten or a five percent deposit for a one
Speaker 3: and a half million dollar house. So the housing issue
Speaker 3: is a red hot potato here and the youth are
Speaker 3: expected to vote along those lines, and this is why
Speaker 3: you see a lot of the youth vote starting to
Speaker 3: go to the Greens, which is starting to cut into
Speaker 3: a labor support base as well.
Speaker 1: So, Paul, we started the conversation talking about the impact
Speaker 1: President Trump may have on the Australian election. One of
Speaker 1: the things that we've been dealing with here recently in
Speaker 1: the States has been Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve
Speaker 1: and subsequently the pushback that came from the market that
Speaker 1: the FED needs to remain independent. What is the relationship
Speaker 1: between the government and the Central Bank in Australia. Is
Speaker 1: there the same aspiration of independence?
Speaker 3: There is that same aspiration and there is a lot
Speaker 3: more respect on the political side towards that independence. I
Speaker 3: don't think you would find what you don't find either
Speaker 3: major party are really waiting into FED policy at all.
Speaker 3: And every year, at least once a year, I have
Speaker 3: an opportunity to speak to the Finance Minister of the
Speaker 3: Chef no treasurer as well. Whenever I utter the acronym
Speaker 3: RBA Reserve Bank of Australia, they immediately default too. We
Speaker 3: will not comment on monetary policy. The Reserve Bank is independent.
Speaker 3: It is important that we protect that independence these sorts
Speaker 3: of talking points, so no appetite at all from either
Speaker 3: party to erode the independence of the Central Bank in Australia.
Speaker 1: Paul will leave it there. Thank you so much. It's
Speaker 1: always a pleasure. Bloomberg's Paul Allen joining us from Sydney
Speaker 1: here on the Debreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the
Speaker 1: Debreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. Stateside. We got key
Speaker 1: earnings after the bell. We heard from Microsoft and the
Speaker 1: company reported better than expected sales and profit for the
Speaker 1: latest quarter. The bright spot was the Azure cloud computing unit.
Speaker 1: It posted a thirty three percent jump in sales. Meta
Speaker 1: Platforms posted first quarter sale above estimates. This could be
Speaker 1: assigned the company's ad business is so far weathering the
Speaker 1: ongoing trade war. For a closer look, now, I am
Speaker 1: joined by George Sippoloni. He is portfolio manager at Penn
Speaker 1: Mutual Asset Management. George, thank you so much. It's always
Speaker 1: a pleasure. Let's talk about the mag seven results that
Speaker 1: we had today. Are you optimistic now that maybe anything
Speaker 1: that people were kind of wringing their hands over is
Speaker 1: has subsided or is there still a bit of risk here.
Speaker 4: Great to talk to you again.
Speaker 5: First of all, Doug, and yeah, so coming into this
Speaker 5: and you know it, I mean, the amount of volatility
Speaker 5: and the historical president presidents is that have been broken
Speaker 5: over the last few months have just been incredible. So
Speaker 5: coming into this earning season, what did we see?
Speaker 4: At first? We saw companies backing off guidance.
Speaker 5: We saw a lot of companies miss or just talk
Speaker 5: about the uncertain environment.
Speaker 4: So we really needed a few good.
Speaker 5: Earnings reports from some big companies and we got them
Speaker 5: tonight through Microsoft and Meta, which was great. And to
Speaker 5: you you mentioned the as you're business doing really really well.
Speaker 5: The comments related to AI growth and cap X are
Speaker 5: just eye popping and they're pretty stunning, and the market
Speaker 5: really needed something like this.
Speaker 1: We also had the GDP report today showing the economy
Speaker 1: here in the US declined at an annual rate of
Speaker 1: three tens to one percent. That sounds maybe troublesome, but
Speaker 1: I think it's got to be placed into the proper
Speaker 1: context here. Because we had a big jump in pre
Speaker 1: tariff imports. Companies were really scrambling to secure a lot
Speaker 1: of merchandise ahead of the expanded tariffs. So if you
Speaker 1: look at that buying It essentially subtracted about five percentage
Speaker 1: points from GDP. Where are you right now and understanding
Speaker 1: the US economy and the potential risk that is still
Speaker 1: out there visa these tariffs.
Speaker 5: This is a great conversation to talk about right now, Doug,
Speaker 5: because everybody wants to talk about the soft data and
Speaker 5: how soft the soft data has been, and they're waiting
Speaker 5: for more hard data and we.
Speaker 4: Just don't have it yet, but it's going to come
Speaker 4: soon enough. I do think.
Speaker 5: Look, what the administration is trying to do is pretty historic.
Speaker 5: Nobody's really tried to institute tariffs and tariff policy in
Speaker 5: this fashion in a very very long time. And so
Speaker 5: my biggest concern is that we end up in a
Speaker 5: trade war because that will just shrink the entire global
Speaker 5: pie and we don't want that. And then what are
Speaker 5: the actual tariff tariffs that are implemented. What's that going
Speaker 5: to mean for companies? What's that going to mean for earnings?
Speaker 5: We just had a Jack specific, a company we don't own,
Speaker 5: but you know, toy manufacturer, and they just said, hey,
Speaker 5: look it's there's no magic wallet out there. These costs
Speaker 5: are going to have to get absorbed. So that's what
Speaker 5: we're looking at is bottom up stock and bomb pickers.
Speaker 5: We're looking line by line, looking at companies with good
Speaker 5: operating margins and companies that can defend their operating margins
Speaker 5: against these costs.
Speaker 1: So we had the monthly reading on the Fed's preferred
Speaker 1: measure of inflation today core PCE for the month of
Speaker 1: March unchanged. That was shocking, right, the tamest I think
Speaker 1: we've seen in nearly five years. How do you understand that?
Speaker 1: And more importantly, is there a risk that inflation could
Speaker 1: begin to re accelerate?
Speaker 5: And I think that is ultimately the biggest risk because again,
Speaker 5: one key piece of this soft data that I just
Speaker 5: mentioned is the fact that if you look at the surveys,
Speaker 5: inflation expectations of consumers is skyrocketing, and if you look
Speaker 5: at consumer confidence, it's going in the opposite direction. It's
Speaker 5: sinking like a rock. And that's a pretty bad combination.
Speaker 5: So then you enter that world of potential for stagflation,
Speaker 5: and that's not a really positive world from an economic standpoint.
Speaker 4: So yes, we would. So we are starting to see it.
Speaker 4: We'll pull back.
Speaker 5: We are starting to see gas prices pull back, but
Speaker 5: they're starting to pull back for the wrong reason. They're
Speaker 5: starting to pull back because there's receession concerns. So hopefully, again,
Speaker 5: hopefully we can kind of clear the decks here. Hopefully
Speaker 5: the administration can help us with some trade deals with
Speaker 5: some certainty, just so we can get on with this.
Speaker 5: I think the longer this goes on, this period of uncertainty,
Speaker 5: the worst the possible outcomes tend to be. So it's like,
Speaker 5: let's just move on with it. Let's stop talking about talking,
Speaker 5: and let's sign some deals, and let's just move on
Speaker 5: and deal with it.
Speaker 1: Well, it's interesting that you make that point because we
Speaker 1: had a report today that the US has been proactively
Speaker 1: reaching out to China through various channels to begin discussing trade.
Speaker 1: So that from the US side, and then if you
Speaker 1: look at the PMI data that we had in the
Speaker 1: last session in China, the manufacturing economy on the mainland
Speaker 1: is now in contraction. So it seems like we've reached
Speaker 1: a critical point.
Speaker 5: I think we have, Doug. I think you're absolutely right.
Speaker 5: I do think there's pain on both sides now. The
Speaker 5: pain in China is factories shutting down, the pain that
Speaker 5: we might see, and we're starting to see it in
Speaker 5: the shipping statistics, is potential, the potential for clearing out
Speaker 5: of some shelves. I don't think empty shelves is good
Speaker 5: for anyone politically. I don't think factory shutting down in
Speaker 5: China is good for them politically. So we enter this,
Speaker 5: you know, the trade war turns into more of a
Speaker 5: political war of contrition, and that's where we're going to
Speaker 5: end up being. So hopefully we don't get to the
Speaker 5: worst case scenarios. I really think they just need to
Speaker 5: sit down and talk. I will say, look, you know,
Speaker 5: the trade imbalances that we've had, I get it very noble,
Speaker 5: very noble cause to try to straighten those out from
Speaker 5: a US perspective. China from the very beginning he said, look,
Speaker 5: let's just sit down and talk. And we just haven't
Speaker 5: gotten there yet. So again, let's just get down to it,
Speaker 5: sit down at the table and talk like adults and
Speaker 5: make some deals.
Speaker 1: So if you look at the action in the bond
Speaker 1: market today, we had a drop in the yield on
Speaker 1: the two year, a little bit of buying at the
Speaker 1: short end of the curve. The notion here is that
Speaker 1: everything we've been describing is going to set up a
Speaker 1: FED rate cut, maybe as soon as June.
Speaker 4: That's exactly how we see it, Doug.
Speaker 5: So you know, if you think about a number, So
Speaker 5: we have a pretty big number now of expected rate
Speaker 5: cuts from the FED, and if you talk to economists
Speaker 5: they might say two or three. If you look at
Speaker 5: what the market is pricing in, we're looking at three
Speaker 5: to four. And so yes, I do think it's going
Speaker 5: to come sooner rather than later. I do think tune
Speaker 5: should be the date.
Speaker 4: And if it's not, we all know what's going to
Speaker 4: happen the pal.
Speaker 5: In the media, Trump's going to beat them up pretty good, right,
Speaker 5: So yeah, hopefully they come sooner than later, and again
Speaker 5: hopefully we can get some more positive news flow going.
Speaker 1: So do you on that notion, do you put money
Speaker 1: to work in the bond market and do you look
Speaker 1: for capital gains or do you hold back and think,
Speaker 1: all right, maybe there's a big question mark right now
Speaker 1: over the equity market. I'm just going to go to
Speaker 1: the short end, keep some powder dry, wait for a pullback,
Speaker 1: and maybe put a little bit more money to work
Speaker 1: in the stock market later.
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is a perfect lead in, Doug, because I
Speaker 5: do think right now we're pretty much bar belled. We
Speaker 5: do have some money on the front end, super safe protected,
Speaker 5: we're not really concerned about.
Speaker 4: It, you know, and then we'll move out.
Speaker 5: Like the belly of the curve looks really good, you know,
Speaker 5: maybe after twenty years for example.
Speaker 4: And then we've seen a lot of.
Speaker 5: Credit moves over the last few months and we've seen
Speaker 5: a lot of bonds get hit pretty good. So yes,
Speaker 5: as bottom up against and bond pickers, one of the
Speaker 5: big things we like to do is take advantage of
Speaker 5: those periods of volatility, take advantage of those drops. And
Speaker 5: we're looking at we have a super long term view,
Speaker 5: which is great at Pen Mutual, and so when we
Speaker 5: get these pockets of value, we have to take advantage
Speaker 5: of them. We have to see through the fear I
Speaker 5: call it. Right now, we're going through a fog of tariffs.
Speaker 5: We have to see through it. We just have to
Speaker 5: as investors again focus on good management teams, good balance sheets,
Speaker 5: and maybe some of these price declines are just a
Speaker 5: really good opportunity from a long term perspective. So we
Speaker 5: always need to keep that slightly positive bent even in
Speaker 5: a world of negativity.
Speaker 1: So how are you feeling about high yield in the
Speaker 1: current environment. Is this something that you want to avoid
Speaker 1: given maybe greater default risk right now, or do you
Speaker 1: want to try to capture that higher yield on the
Speaker 1: notion that the FED is going to prevent things from
Speaker 1: getting much worse.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a great point. So within high yield, I
Speaker 5: really think so. Obviously it's called junk for a reason.
Speaker 5: I think we want to avoid the junk and really
Speaker 5: focus on the higher quality high yield companies. That's been
Speaker 5: our bread and butter, a penm usual for a very
Speaker 5: very long period of time, and we're.
Speaker 4: Going to stick to that now.
Speaker 5: I will say, the market when we get these spread
Speaker 5: widening events, the market does int tend, does not tend
Speaker 5: to differentiate between the good and the junkie companies, the
Speaker 5: high yield and the junk. So our job as investors
Speaker 5: is to focus on the good, higher quality high yield
Speaker 5: companies that may have seen spreads blow out, but guess what,
Speaker 5: they're fundamentals and their earnings held up really, really well.
Speaker 5: And there are a bunch of companies that just reported
Speaker 5: where we've seen some really tangible, solid operating improvement and
Speaker 5: we've seen leverage ratios go down for some companies. Management
Speaker 5: teams that are paying down debt. Those are the ones
Speaker 5: that we'll focus on here, as we saw these spreads wide.
Speaker 1: Now, so I know you focused primarily on the fixed
Speaker 1: income space, George, but if you had to put money
Speaker 1: to work on the equity side, can you give me
Speaker 1: a strategy that you think would be effective in the
Speaker 1: next six to nine months.
Speaker 5: Sure, So with our fun at PENM Mutual PMFX, we do,
Speaker 5: and we can buy dividend paying stocks up to forty
Speaker 5: percent of the fund.
Speaker 4: We can own dividend paying stocks.
Speaker 5: I do think again, going through this period and the
Speaker 5: amount of downside volatility we've seen, we're seeing huge divergences
Speaker 5: in actual operating performance. And so I think there's two
Speaker 5: really good tax to take here, and number one is
Speaker 5: to focus on companies that don't even have to worry
Speaker 5: about tariffs. We have a company, I can't say the name,
Speaker 5: but a commercial HVAC company that just reported tonight, great earnings,
Speaker 5: great backlog. They are a domestic eight HVAC company. They
Speaker 5: make here and they sell here. That's easy. They actually
Speaker 5: may benefit from tariffs because their competitors are going to
Speaker 5: be faced with them or ADRs. For example, we own
Speaker 5: this technology company. It's a well web browsing company that's
Speaker 5: based in Norway that has a fantastic balance sheet and
Speaker 5: a great dividend policy. So again that's the non tariff
Speaker 5: exposed companies. But then we're also going to have to
Speaker 5: sow in a controlling fashion. There may be companies that
Speaker 5: have suffered recently from direct tariff hits that where if
Speaker 5: we get positive tariff news, they're going to be the
Speaker 5: ones that are going to rip and come right back.
Speaker 5: So we also are looking at that bucket as well.
Speaker 5: That bucket's a little trickier, I will say. The other bucket,
Speaker 5: the non tariff exposed, is a little bit easier right now.
Speaker 1: Kind of like a coiled spring. George, thank you so much,
Speaker 1: always a great conversation with George Sippaloni. He is portfolio
Speaker 1: manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. Joining us here on
Speaker 1: the Daybreak Asia Podcast. Thanks for listening to today's episode
Speaker 1: of the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we
Speaker 1: look at the story shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in
Speaker 1: the Asia Pacific. You can find us on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel, or anywhere else you listen.
Speaker 1: Join us again tomorrow for insight on the market moves
Speaker 1: from Hong Kong to Singapore and Australia. I'm Doug Chrisner,
Speaker 1: and this is Bloomberg