1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,600 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,440 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,239 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:33,919 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,000 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. The EU. We'll be 10 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,760 Speaker 2: hoping this is the same political theater as twenty eighteen. 11 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: I would argue that hope is not a plan, and 12 00:00:41,880 --> 00:00:44,319 Speaker 2: Alan g imports won't address the size of the US 13 00:00:44,400 --> 00:00:47,040 Speaker 2: trade deficit. But it's the best that EU have got 14 00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 2: to work with. Jordan, Welcome to the program Siran news 15 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:55,200 Speaker 2: or noise. When you read that statement, it's news because 16 00:00:55,280 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 2: if you think about it, John, and Merry Christmas. By 17 00:00:57,400 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 2: the way, I can see, if you think about it, 18 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:02,520 Speaker 2: we've had come in winning the election. He targeted Canada 19 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:05,919 Speaker 2: and Mexico and China, and I noted to clients mysteriously 20 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 2: absent on the rest of the world Europe, Japan, the 21 00:01:08,680 --> 00:01:10,800 Speaker 2: rest of Asia, and he started to pick. 22 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 3: Them off one by one. As time has gone on, 23 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,240 Speaker 3: we've had India this week and now we've had the 24 00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:17,040 Speaker 3: EU today. And as I've put in the note to clients, 25 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,280 Speaker 3: the tricky thing is if he's serious. If he's serious, 26 00:01:20,319 --> 00:01:23,119 Speaker 3: the EU can definitely buy more LNG, but the problem 27 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:25,800 Speaker 3: is they won't at all be able to plug the 28 00:01:25,800 --> 00:01:28,479 Speaker 3: deficit with the US just from LLERG alone. Oil might 29 00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:30,119 Speaker 3: help as well, but I think oil is pretty much 30 00:01:30,120 --> 00:01:32,560 Speaker 3: maxed out too. If you look at the LNG purchases 31 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:35,560 Speaker 3: the EU has made from the US, it's already half 32 00:01:35,800 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 3: of EU LNG imports. It's a fantastic achievement. And the 33 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:42,479 Speaker 3: exports of LERG from the US have been ramping up 34 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:45,480 Speaker 3: a lot over the past five years, but they can't 35 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 3: double in the space of this one year period, I 36 00:01:48,560 --> 00:01:52,200 Speaker 3: would say, And they're annuallyzing around twenty six billion dollars 37 00:01:52,240 --> 00:01:54,600 Speaker 3: a year in what the EU buys from the US 38 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:59,000 Speaker 3: if it was to take all American LLERG exports. So 39 00:01:59,040 --> 00:02:01,360 Speaker 3: it's just really difficult for the mass to add up. 40 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 3: So in answer your question, it's news if he's serious 41 00:02:04,480 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 3: because the eu A won't be able to negotiate a 42 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 3: deal on behalf of other members. Junker didn't have that 43 00:02:09,919 --> 00:02:15,679 Speaker 3: power Arsen Ofvonderland now And what Junker did in twenty 44 00:02:15,720 --> 00:02:18,399 Speaker 3: eighteen was a political charade. Really, it was a memorandum 45 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 3: of understanding. It wasn't a trade deal. It was just 46 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:23,360 Speaker 3: a sort of loosely worded statement saying we'll buy more 47 00:02:23,480 --> 00:02:24,639 Speaker 3: lerg and soybeans. 48 00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 4: Or they have. 49 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 3: And Trump's still complaining the deficit has gotten wider since 50 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,079 Speaker 3: the EU has actually already increased their energy purchases. 51 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:33,440 Speaker 1: So if he's serious, the. 52 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,320 Speaker 3: Master doesn't add up and tariff's come into place. But 53 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: I think perhaps John, he's giving them a way out 54 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 3: to do the same they did in twenty eighteen of 55 00:02:40,520 --> 00:02:43,880 Speaker 3: a memorandum of understanding, and maybe he avoids tariff in 56 00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:46,320 Speaker 3: Europe to begin with. But it's all down to human 57 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:47,680 Speaker 3: decision at the end of the day. 58 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 2: John Jordan, Let's take this story and push it through 59 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:51,400 Speaker 2: through an exchange, as we often do. We've already had 60 00:02:51,400 --> 00:02:53,880 Speaker 2: a five percent move on euro dollar week of euro 61 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:57,080 Speaker 2: through this year so far. Is this another reason in 62 00:02:57,120 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 2: a long list of reasons to keep selling the euro Yea. 63 00:03:00,680 --> 00:03:02,280 Speaker 3: There's a long list of reason to keep saying that the 64 00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 3: Europe's like cats and dogs. You've got what's going on 65 00:03:04,880 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 3: with the tariff situation, You've got what's going on with 66 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 3: European macro. The industrial recession in Germany just keeps getting worse. 67 00:03:11,639 --> 00:03:14,080 Speaker 3: In the short term, we've had services strength in Europe 68 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,840 Speaker 3: keep us in doubt about how far the ECB can 69 00:03:16,840 --> 00:03:19,239 Speaker 3: cut rates. But I think the services sector will turn 70 00:03:19,280 --> 00:03:21,920 Speaker 3: lower next year. It's just so difficult for services to 71 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,119 Speaker 3: do well if you're laying off your manufacturing employees, as 72 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 3: Germany and others are doing in Europe right now. So 73 00:03:27,600 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 3: we've got one oh one so near parity in Eurojohn, 74 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 3: But the key message from my side, John, is that's 75 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 3: a view into January the twentieth, and I think the 76 00:03:36,400 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 3: inauguration is an event risk in itself. It could be 77 00:03:39,680 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 3: a day where we get a list of executive orders 78 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 3: in the afternoon from Donald Trump. If tariffs do not 79 00:03:44,760 --> 00:03:47,119 Speaker 3: feature in that list, if he doesn't start a sort 80 00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:50,400 Speaker 3: of investigation into raising tariffs on others, it could be 81 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 3: a by the room of cell the fat moment. And 82 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: that's why I think one oh one we price in 83 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 3: maximum pain and then if it goes more smoothly, if 84 00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 3: there's not a significant tariff hike on day one of 85 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,200 Speaker 3: his present and see, perhaps it's mean reversion and this 86 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:04,560 Speaker 3: market likes to mean revert and the dollar sells off 87 00:04:04,600 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 3: from there. 88 00:04:05,360 --> 00:04:07,240 Speaker 4: In the past, the dollar has sort of had a 89 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 4: self correcting mechanism where if it gets too strong, things 90 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 4: start to break and then suddenly weakness takes it over 91 00:04:13,920 --> 00:04:17,040 Speaker 4: and there is this normalization. At what point do you 92 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:19,040 Speaker 4: see that risk coming into play? 93 00:04:20,360 --> 00:04:24,680 Speaker 3: Indeed, it ties to the f MC response function. Typically 94 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,320 Speaker 3: you have a big self in equities, the f MC 95 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 3: kind of rides out for a bit, but when you 96 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 3: have a ten percent draw down, they tend to circle 97 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 3: wagons and reverse course. I think that could be the case. 98 00:04:36,560 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 3: It feels a lot like twenty eighteen to me, Lisa. 99 00:04:38,880 --> 00:04:41,640 Speaker 3: Remember twenty eighteen, we had a pretty hawkish fed. We 100 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 3: had a ten percent sell off in the S and 101 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:46,200 Speaker 3: P five hundred, and then we got to January and 102 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 3: power changed is sort of mood music quite quickly in 103 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 3: just public statements, and we had most of that sell 104 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 3: off come back in the first part of January twenty nineteen, 105 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:56,479 Speaker 3: so we could be in for a case of that 106 00:04:56,600 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 3: sort of story. I'm not calling for a ten percent 107 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 3: draw down, but that's the saw of pain threshold where 108 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:05,120 Speaker 3: you get the FED members responding and perhaps changing their language. 109 00:05:05,160 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 3: But it's really difficult because the macro data supports are 110 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,760 Speaker 3: much more hawkish FED. We've long had a four percent 111 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:14,080 Speaker 3: terminal as our view at Mazoo before Trump won the election. 112 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:16,080 Speaker 3: A lot of people joined us in that race to 113 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:19,960 Speaker 3: four percent once Trump was elected, but we're now pricing 114 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:22,839 Speaker 3: that pretty much perfectly in the rates curve, so it 115 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:24,240 Speaker 3: could be the case lead. So I think the risk 116 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,360 Speaker 3: reward is we actually price in a little bit more 117 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 3: cuts than what's now in the market. I think we 118 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 3: should be at least pricing a cup by March or June. 119 00:05:31,640 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 3: There's about one cut by June, but March is around 120 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,200 Speaker 3: fifty to fifty, so we should see some curves steepening 121 00:05:37,200 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 3: on the back of it. Two tens looks really interesting here. 122 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,160 Speaker 4: We've talked about two different issues or whether it's the 123 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 4: tariffs and just the Donald Trump risk two potentially a 124 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:50,160 Speaker 4: weaker euro, stronger dollar, and then there's the FED response mechanism, 125 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 4: which do you think is in the driver's seed? 126 00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:56,320 Speaker 3: Ugh, well, I think the Trump trade is in the 127 00:05:56,360 --> 00:05:59,520 Speaker 3: driver's seat for everything in January. It all boils down 128 00:05:59,560 --> 00:06:01,520 Speaker 3: to that. And then once we know that, once we 129 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 3: know what's happening with tariffs. 130 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 1: It's done. 131 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 3: It's essentially the informations in the market, and then we 132 00:06:06,000 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 3: go back to following what the inflation data says, what 133 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 3: the GDP data says. And it's just difficult for the 134 00:06:11,839 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 3: Fed to be dubbsh when you've got GDP at three 135 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,000 Speaker 3: percent and they're now casting even a bit higher than that. 136 00:06:17,200 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 3: You've got inflation reaccelerating on the month of month numbers, 137 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 3: and tying this into the LNG story. Have a look 138 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,040 Speaker 3: at natural gas prices at Henry Hub. They're at the 139 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 3: highst of the month. They're rising in fashion that could 140 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 3: bring energy services CPI as a problem next year for 141 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:34,200 Speaker 3: the Fed. So all together, Trump's in the driving seat 142 00:06:34,200 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 3: trying to push up LNG price at LERG exports push 143 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 3: us up domestic prices. It's inflationary as a policy. And 144 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:43,280 Speaker 3: then you've got the situation with tariffs, which of course 145 00:06:43,400 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 3: are inflationary. I suspect they'll stagger the tariffs though over 146 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,440 Speaker 3: a year to try and reduce the knee jerk reaction 147 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 3: from firms having to raise prices as soon as the 148 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:56,440 Speaker 3: news is out, and we're hoping to see or we're 149 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:59,520 Speaker 3: probably going to see FX depreciation in China and all 150 00:06:59,520 --> 00:07:03,080 Speaker 3: those otherrencies such as euro to help offset the impact 151 00:07:03,120 --> 00:07:05,039 Speaker 3: of any tariffs if they come in. So if you 152 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:07,679 Speaker 3: have the sixty percent tariff on China, that's a huge 153 00:07:07,720 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 3: piece of news. That's definitely in the driving seat right now. 154 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,000 Speaker 2: Last question, then, Jordan year Today, if I go on 155 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 2: the screen on the Bloomberg terminal and have a look 156 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 2: at where things are at the moment, everything in G 157 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:21,440 Speaker 2: ten is weaker against the US dollar, including the Japanese 158 00:07:21,600 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: m with a ten percent move. When I do the 159 00:07:23,600 --> 00:07:25,800 Speaker 2: same thing at the end of twenty twenty five, it's 160 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:27,480 Speaker 2: that screen gonna look any different. 161 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 3: Good question. I think it will look different. As I say, 162 00:07:32,760 --> 00:07:34,320 Speaker 3: I think we actually get a dollar weakness by the 163 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 3: end of next year, but it's dollar up for the 164 00:07:36,600 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 3: next quarter and then down from Q two onwards. I 165 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,520 Speaker 3: think you will see the the end strength come back 166 00:07:41,560 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 3: in as we're still in a rate hiking cyber from 167 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:45,800 Speaker 3: the Bank Japan, and you will see the economic data improve. 168 00:07:45,800 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 3: I'm an optimist John for the second half of next year. 169 00:07:48,160 --> 00:07:50,680 Speaker 3: We've got all this monetary easing, we've got the potential 170 00:07:50,680 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 3: for China fiscal stimulus in Q two. We should be 171 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,400 Speaker 3: seeing a week of dollar when that happens. So we've 172 00:07:55,400 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 3: got euro bouncing back to one oh five. But it's 173 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:00,560 Speaker 3: such a mild rally. I'd focus more on the sort 174 00:08:00,600 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 3: of story for the dollar right here and now. 175 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 2: Got it, Jordan, Merry Christmas, sir, thanks for everything this year. 176 00:08:05,320 --> 00:08:07,720 Speaker 2: I appreciate it. Thank you, buddy, Jordan Rochester there of 177 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 2: Mazumo Savantaria for SoC GEN with a surround a table 178 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,800 Speaker 2: sapantry Kamonic, good morning. I think before the Federal Reserve 179 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:25,360 Speaker 2: you had two is going down to something like three 180 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:27,440 Speaker 2: p fifty at the front end of the curve. Has 181 00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 2: that changed since you heard from Chairman Powell. 182 00:08:30,280 --> 00:08:33,240 Speaker 5: Three point fifty for the end of next year. So 183 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:36,200 Speaker 5: we don't really, I mean, we're we were anticipating. We 184 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:40,199 Speaker 5: are anticipating more cuts next year. You know, our economists 185 00:08:40,240 --> 00:08:42,480 Speaker 5: surely haven't changed their call for the FED because we 186 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:45,400 Speaker 5: just don't have much by way of new information. Yes, 187 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:49,880 Speaker 5: the Fed, the Committee itself recalibrated to just two cuts 188 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:52,840 Speaker 5: for next year. But there you know, the way the 189 00:08:52,840 --> 00:08:56,679 Speaker 5: economy has been going, you should see a moderation in growth, 190 00:08:56,679 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 5: you should see a moderation in employment, you should see 191 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:03,200 Speaker 5: a moderation in inflation. And under the circumstances, the event 192 00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 5: might be able to deliver four cuts. But as a 193 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 5: rate strategist, I do my biases that they deliver less cuts. 194 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,520 Speaker 5: So the market is very very efficiently priced in for 195 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:16,360 Speaker 5: a very benign policy path. But if they do deliver 196 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:20,120 Speaker 5: four cuts and aligned with our economists call, then the 197 00:09:20,120 --> 00:09:22,600 Speaker 5: two year could end the year next year on three 198 00:09:22,640 --> 00:09:23,200 Speaker 5: and a half percent. 199 00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: Interesting. 200 00:09:23,800 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 2: We've had a robust debate around this table over the 201 00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:27,880 Speaker 2: last few days about what was behind and what underpinned 202 00:09:27,920 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: those changes to the forecastle of feder Reserve, the data 203 00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,480 Speaker 2: or Trump. We're teasing out some of that information from 204 00:09:33,720 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 2: officials on the FMC Mary Daily. The San Francisco FED 205 00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: president told us about an hour ago that for her 206 00:09:38,440 --> 00:09:40,679 Speaker 2: it was the data, but for others it was clear. 207 00:09:40,800 --> 00:09:43,559 Speaker 2: There was also about the policies. What is it for you? 208 00:09:43,720 --> 00:09:44,959 Speaker 2: What are you basing your calls on? 209 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:48,080 Speaker 5: So I think it's going to be a bit of both, 210 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 5: and I think it's going to be a constant recalibration 211 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 5: process as we get new information hitting the tapes, and 212 00:09:55,160 --> 00:09:57,079 Speaker 5: there's going to be a lot of that three am 213 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 5: tweets that we have to respond to next year, so 214 00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,440 Speaker 5: we're all getting ready for of that. But you know, 215 00:10:02,480 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 5: it's going to be quite difficult depending on how the 216 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,160 Speaker 5: tariffs are rolled out. I mean, last go around, tariffs 217 00:10:09,160 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 5: were over a two year period and on you know, 218 00:10:11,840 --> 00:10:14,720 Speaker 5: sometimes on very specific products. This time this could be 219 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:17,319 Speaker 5: it could be much more of a sweeping terraff regime. 220 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:20,440 Speaker 5: So we're going to have to recalibrate as the data 221 00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:22,560 Speaker 5: comes in. I mean the FED, I think, as we 222 00:10:22,640 --> 00:10:25,040 Speaker 5: heard from from a chair power, some of the fair 223 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 5: FED members are already incorporating some of the changes that 224 00:10:28,280 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 5: could come down the pike, and others are not. And 225 00:10:30,480 --> 00:10:33,600 Speaker 5: that's exactly what you're seeing among street economists. 226 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 4: What's your reaction function to the tweets? 227 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,760 Speaker 5: You know, it's it's funny because I'm now mentally preparing 228 00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:42,840 Speaker 5: myself to wake up in the morning to stuff that 229 00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,080 Speaker 5: I was not prepared for and then having to react 230 00:10:45,160 --> 00:10:50,440 Speaker 5: very quickly. And and our counterparts in Asia especially are 231 00:10:50,480 --> 00:10:52,520 Speaker 5: looking forward to it because they can react to the 232 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,319 Speaker 5: volatility as it's happening because they're awake at three am 233 00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 5: New York time to to to respond to the incoming 234 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,120 Speaker 5: new So you know it's going to be it's going 235 00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,280 Speaker 5: to be interesting. It's it's just a paradigm shift to 236 00:11:04,920 --> 00:11:06,960 Speaker 5: where we were between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. 237 00:11:07,040 --> 00:11:08,680 Speaker 4: So things are going to get pretty noisy, right. I 238 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 4: mean it's sort of a question of do you get 239 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 4: more tactical or long term and how much is this 240 00:11:12,920 --> 00:11:17,520 Speaker 4: increasingly a tactical market because of how obscured what's going 241 00:11:17,520 --> 00:11:18,840 Speaker 4: on underneath actually is. 242 00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 5: Yeah, I know it's going to be a very tactical market. 243 00:11:21,280 --> 00:11:23,560 Speaker 5: We're going to have to constantly reculber. Just look at 244 00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,120 Speaker 5: the last two days. We've gone back and forth on 245 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:28,880 Speaker 5: whether there's going to be government shutdown or not, based 246 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 5: on information from either the Trump Aids or from Trump. 247 00:11:34,360 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 5: So you're going to need to see that. It's going 248 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:37,600 Speaker 5: to be a lot of back and forth like that 249 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 5: for the next you know, two years, and then perhaps 250 00:11:40,640 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 5: in the next four years. 251 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 2: Things really are obvious if you just take the example 252 00:11:43,760 --> 00:11:45,680 Speaker 2: of this morning, we've all woken up to this post 253 00:11:45,760 --> 00:11:48,720 Speaker 2: from the present elect on truth, so so suggesting that 254 00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,200 Speaker 2: if the Europeans don't close the trade deficit and buy 255 00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:54,320 Speaker 2: more LERG, there'll be tariffs. I don't think it's clear 256 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 2: what happens with that at all. The Europeans have already 257 00:11:56,600 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 2: come out ahead of time and said we want to 258 00:11:57,960 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 2: buy the LNG. I think Collie Crook said a little 259 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,400 Speaker 2: bit earlier reference in one of our colleagues that they're 260 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:04,960 Speaker 2: pushing on an open door at the moment they want 261 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 2: that to happen. Of course, there's an outstanding question whether 262 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 2: it's enough to close the trade deficit, and whether if 263 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:11,719 Speaker 2: they don't, whether you actually get those tarifts. So I 264 00:12:11,760 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 2: don't think anything's clear before you even begin to assess 265 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,719 Speaker 2: how inflationary or not those tarifts would actually be. There 266 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,720 Speaker 2: is nothing cut and dry about twenty five and beyond. 267 00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 4: Especially given the fact that even the reaction in markets, 268 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,559 Speaker 4: the reaction and the economy will look different, given that 269 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,400 Speaker 4: we're coming from a very different starting point. And I 270 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 4: think about right now, you're talking about a government shutdown, 271 00:12:30,600 --> 00:12:32,720 Speaker 4: and we did get a tweet from Donald Trump saying 272 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:35,160 Speaker 4: that let's set it down now before I get into office, 273 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 4: because then that's on his head, not my head. And 274 00:12:37,160 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 4: I'm just wondering what's the response to that in the 275 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 4: fixed income market. 276 00:12:42,760 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 5: So I think that you're right in pointing out that 277 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,439 Speaker 5: the starting point is very, very different, And I'm really 278 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:53,160 Speaker 5: concerned about that from the inflation perspective, because you know, 279 00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 5: between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, inflation was not a concern. 280 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 5: I mean, we had like maybe a two year decade 281 00:13:01,000 --> 00:13:04,760 Speaker 5: period when you know, core CPI, core PCE never really 282 00:13:04,800 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 5: exceeded that two to two and a half percent level. 283 00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:09,400 Speaker 5: Now our starting point is a lot higher. You're looking 284 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:14,600 Speaker 5: at core PCE around two point eight percent. The economy 285 00:13:14,640 --> 00:13:18,440 Speaker 5: is extraordinary vulnerable to inflationary shocks on the services side. 286 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:21,800 Speaker 5: So I think that that is really the game changer 287 00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:24,640 Speaker 5: this time around, is that if you do see you know, 288 00:13:24,679 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 5: tweets and the market reacts and things that it's going 289 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 5: to be inflationary, then you're going to see these volatility 290 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:34,440 Speaker 5: and inflation expectations. So the break even market is not 291 00:13:34,600 --> 00:13:37,600 Speaker 5: really priced for that. So I'm expecting a lot more 292 00:13:37,679 --> 00:13:41,720 Speaker 5: volatility inflation break evens next year because of the fact 293 00:13:41,760 --> 00:13:43,880 Speaker 5: that we're in a very different inflation regime this time around, 294 00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,719 Speaker 5: as opposed to back in you know, the Trump one 295 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:48,080 Speaker 5: point or timeframe. 296 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:49,760 Speaker 2: Savantra, It's good to say it, Scredie, catch up. I 297 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,719 Speaker 2: appreciate it's time. Thank you, Savantra. Jampa of self check, 298 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 2: Jim Carrot and Mooke and Stanley writes him, sell off 299 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: inequities is healthy? Better to happen now when Yes, today 300 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 2: equities are up more than twenty percent versus early January 301 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 2: and stopped the year in a hole. 302 00:14:11,800 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: Jim joins us. 303 00:14:12,400 --> 00:14:14,320 Speaker 2: Now for more, Jim, welcome, buddy, It's good to see you. 304 00:14:14,400 --> 00:14:15,360 Speaker 2: What's healthy about this? 305 00:14:15,360 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 1: Good morning? I'm sorry I didn't catch that. 306 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: What's healthy about this? Fourteen days and negative breadth on 307 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,840 Speaker 2: the S and P? What's healthy about it? Jim? 308 00:14:23,280 --> 00:14:23,520 Speaker 1: Yeah? 309 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 6: So, look, I mean, you know, the markets were technically 310 00:14:25,680 --> 00:14:29,120 Speaker 6: very overbought. This sell off does not represent a change 311 00:14:29,160 --> 00:14:32,320 Speaker 6: and trend. As you were saying earlier on the show, 312 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:36,280 Speaker 6: there's been a very heavy concentration in a very few names. 313 00:14:36,280 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 6: That narrowness of breath has already started to widen out. 314 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,080 Speaker 6: But when you get these big adjustments, and you get 315 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:45,440 Speaker 6: these expectations of earnings still coming in good but maybe 316 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 6: not as stellar as people had thought in the past, 317 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 6: then I think you start to get the sell off. 318 00:14:49,880 --> 00:14:51,520 Speaker 6: Look I mean, the S and P five hundred was 319 00:14:51,600 --> 00:14:54,760 Speaker 6: up about twenty seven percent on a year today basis, 320 00:14:55,200 --> 00:14:57,320 Speaker 6: and we owed that to a very very few set 321 00:14:57,360 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 6: of names. 322 00:14:58,200 --> 00:15:00,320 Speaker 1: This is now starting to broad out. 323 00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 6: And as the market broadens out, what that means is 324 00:15:02,960 --> 00:15:06,040 Speaker 6: that the former winners are going to start to decline 325 00:15:06,040 --> 00:15:06,320 Speaker 6: a bit. 326 00:15:06,640 --> 00:15:08,400 Speaker 1: Doesn't mean it's the start of a bear market. 327 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:11,400 Speaker 6: It just means that we're in an adjustment process of 328 00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:15,000 Speaker 6: broadening out the markets, moving into sectors that are more 329 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,720 Speaker 6: MidCap orientated, which is our view that we think can 330 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 6: potentially do better from an earning's growth perspective. 331 00:15:22,160 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 2: Jim, did anything change for you Wednesday afternoon when Sham 332 00:15:25,160 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 2: and Poal finished speak. 333 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 6: In You know, it's kind of interesting, right because this 334 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 6: is the dilemma for the market. All Powell basically did. Yes, 335 00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:37,960 Speaker 6: he did announce a slower pace of rate cuts. The 336 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 6: dots did move up fifty basis points across the curve. 337 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,480 Speaker 6: But guess what, that's exactly almost exactly what the market 338 00:15:44,520 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 6: was expecting. If you looked at fedpund's futures prior to 339 00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:50,600 Speaker 6: the meeting and then after the meeting, they were you know, 340 00:15:50,640 --> 00:15:52,120 Speaker 6: I mean, they were a little bit higher, but they 341 00:15:52,120 --> 00:15:55,480 Speaker 6: weren't materially higher. I think what the market's reaction is 342 00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 6: here is it's really about the bond market, so effectively, 343 00:15:59,200 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 6: where people are arting to get nervous is from a 344 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:03,920 Speaker 6: positioning standpoint. If you look at year to date returns 345 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:07,200 Speaker 6: in bonds, it's in the low single digits. It's around 346 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:09,280 Speaker 6: two to three percent, let's say for most of the 347 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 6: AG indices. If you get another twenty five basis point 348 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:14,840 Speaker 6: rise and yields between now and year end, which which 349 00:16:14,840 --> 00:16:17,720 Speaker 6: is possible, and you get a widening of spreads, many 350 00:16:17,760 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 6: bond investors are at risk of losing their whole year 351 00:16:20,560 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 6: in the next two weeks. 352 00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: That's not our forecast, that's not our. 353 00:16:23,640 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 6: Base case, but it does create this riskiness that you 354 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,480 Speaker 6: could get these extended sell offs in the market, yields rising, 355 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:33,360 Speaker 6: and that. 356 00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:36,000 Speaker 1: Could have a negative impact on equities. 357 00:16:36,080 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 6: So we have to put this into context and understand 358 00:16:38,440 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 6: those technicals as well. 359 00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 4: Jim, I'd like to dig a little bit more into that. 360 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 4: At what point is that the reason why you're not 361 00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 4: buying bonds right now, even though they've sold off and 362 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:52,720 Speaker 4: generally you're optimistic about the disinflationary narrative, you still think 363 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 4: you want to wait for a greater sell off. What's 364 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 4: the point, what's the trigger for you to buy? 365 00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 1: Yeah? 366 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 6: So look, I mean the place that we're looking to 367 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 6: line up and buy, really our holiday shopping list is 368 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,760 Speaker 6: really going to go towards the equity market because we 369 00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,240 Speaker 6: have to understand why is the FED willing to cut 370 00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 6: rates by less. It's probably because the economy is doing 371 00:17:12,160 --> 00:17:15,120 Speaker 6: a bit better. That's good news for equities, right, So 372 00:17:15,400 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 6: moving into midcaps, you know, active, over passive materials, more cyclicals, 373 00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 6: all of that. Now in bonds though, I think that 374 00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 6: at this level, I think this is this is an 375 00:17:27,119 --> 00:17:28,960 Speaker 6: area where bond yields can kind of hang out. I'm 376 00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 6: looking for an overshoot. I'm looking for bond yields ten 377 00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 6: year treasuries. Let's use that as a proxy to move 378 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:37,480 Speaker 6: up towards about four point seventy five percent before I 379 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 6: would start to get long duration extend my positions in bonds, 380 00:17:41,440 --> 00:17:43,120 Speaker 6: because at the end of the day, I still think 381 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 6: the FED is going to cut a couple of times 382 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 6: next year, which means that the upside in yield for 383 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,919 Speaker 6: bonds is somewhat limited. And this is why when you 384 00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:55,640 Speaker 6: look at a sixty forty portfolio or balanced portfolio inequities 385 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,919 Speaker 6: that it's not quite like twenty twenty two. There is 386 00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:04,320 Speaker 6: some upside, potential upside stopping of yields. We're just not 387 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 6: in the same cycle that we were back in twenty 388 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 6: twenty two. So I think the setup right now going 389 00:18:09,240 --> 00:18:12,160 Speaker 6: into twenty twenty five is much more healthy because it's 390 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:15,840 Speaker 6: giving you higher bond yields potentially wider spreads. 391 00:18:15,440 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: So therefore more value for twenty twenty five. 392 00:18:17,840 --> 00:18:20,159 Speaker 6: And you're getting a sell off in the equity market 393 00:18:20,200 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 6: in areas that you maybe wanted to rebalance into in 394 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,560 Speaker 6: the first place, and here's your gift, here's your opportunity 395 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:26,040 Speaker 6: to do that. 396 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 4: So Jim, just putting this all together, it sounds like 397 00:18:28,480 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 4: it's overly simplistic to say simply higher yields causes the 398 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 4: sell off in the stock space, right, So it's not 399 00:18:35,640 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 4: that that alone can make you perish, But that tied 400 00:18:38,680 --> 00:18:41,440 Speaker 4: with the context, as John was pointing out, of the 401 00:18:41,520 --> 00:18:44,879 Speaker 4: high flying aspects of the market. We're really the reason 402 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:47,120 Speaker 4: why this is a positioning move. It is not some 403 00:18:47,160 --> 00:18:48,720 Speaker 4: sort of longer standing trend. 404 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,479 Speaker 1: Is that right, That's right. 405 00:18:50,560 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 6: Yeah, So we don't see this as an economic fundamental 406 00:18:53,160 --> 00:18:56,639 Speaker 6: change in right. We still think the labor market is 407 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 6: reasonably strong. We still think that the retail sales data. 408 00:19:00,040 --> 00:19:03,200 Speaker 6: I still think the broad economy is still doing okay. 409 00:19:03,240 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 6: We do not have a recession forecasted into twenty twenty five. 410 00:19:07,119 --> 00:19:09,800 Speaker 6: The issue that we have in twenty twenty four, though, 411 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 6: was that we had a significant acceleration in the earnings 412 00:19:13,680 --> 00:19:16,600 Speaker 6: growth rate for many of these mag seven type companies 413 00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 6: in the top ten and much of the tech and 414 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 6: we don't expect that kind of an acceleration in earnings 415 00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:26,600 Speaker 6: for those companies in twenty twenty five. So now, because 416 00:19:26,640 --> 00:19:29,520 Speaker 6: there's such a high concentration of the index at this point, 417 00:19:29,800 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 6: as their earnings slow to a more normalized pace, then 418 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 6: that what that means is that is that there's a 419 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,680 Speaker 6: rotation that takes down the index because there's such a 420 00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:39,719 Speaker 6: high weight in the index. 421 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 1: But then it gives you the opportunity. 422 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 6: To buy other segments of the market that are more cyclical, 423 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,879 Speaker 6: like materials industrials for example, that can actually have a 424 00:19:48,920 --> 00:19:52,439 Speaker 6: better earnings growth rate going forward and potentially even a 425 00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:55,959 Speaker 6: pe multiple expansion. So that's what twenty twenty five is about. 426 00:19:56,480 --> 00:19:58,760 Speaker 2: Jim, just ahead of this conversation, we talked about tours 427 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 2: and slock an Apollo and the risk of a repeat 428 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:02,919 Speaker 2: of twenty twenty two. Could I get a little bit 429 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:05,199 Speaker 2: more color from you on that the risk of that 430 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,520 Speaker 2: actually developing stocks and bonds really struggling next year. 431 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:09,680 Speaker 1: Yeah. 432 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,119 Speaker 6: So in twenty twenty two, I mean, we started from 433 00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:15,719 Speaker 6: a very low interest rate level, and the amount that 434 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 6: rates could rise was quite significant. We were just earlier 435 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,119 Speaker 6: in the cycle in twenty twenty two, you know, for 436 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:24,439 Speaker 6: rates to rise at this point, we're probably later in 437 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,640 Speaker 6: the cycle. And in interest rates, yes, they can rise. 438 00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 6: I mean, there's no question if inflation starts to pick up. 439 00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:32,919 Speaker 6: But we're also not at a point here where we 440 00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,080 Speaker 6: expect inflation to be, you know, high single digits like 441 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 6: we did back then. Inflation is likely just to say, well, 442 00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:41,000 Speaker 6: we're not going to get to target at two percent. 443 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,880 Speaker 6: Maybe we'll stay at two and a half percent, maybe 444 00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 6: we'll go to three. And the market's not yet forecasting 445 00:20:47,359 --> 00:20:50,120 Speaker 6: rate hikes by the Fed, and so I think that's 446 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 6: a big difference, you know, right there, in terms of 447 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,520 Speaker 6: the bond element to this. On the equity side, what 448 00:20:55,560 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 6: we have to recognize is that in acceleration higher in 449 00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 6: interest rates. We like what we got in twenty twenty 450 00:21:02,359 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 6: two will bring down the present valuations of a lot 451 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 6: of those equity assets. 452 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: If we're not. 453 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:12,439 Speaker 6: Likely to get the same acceleration higher in interest rates 454 00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,800 Speaker 6: in twenty twenty five as we did in twenty twenty two. 455 00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:17,639 Speaker 1: Then we think the earnings set up. 456 00:21:17,720 --> 00:21:20,639 Speaker 6: The earnings path for twenty twenty five might be a 457 00:21:20,680 --> 00:21:22,400 Speaker 6: little bit more more muted, but. 458 00:21:22,359 --> 00:21:25,400 Speaker 1: Certainly still positive and still okay. 459 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,399 Speaker 6: So I don't think the setup is quite the same 460 00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 6: as twenty twenty two right now. 461 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:31,239 Speaker 2: Interesting, Jim, I appreciate your time. You've been a good 462 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 2: friend of the program for the year, and a whole 463 00:21:32,880 --> 00:21:34,960 Speaker 2: lot longth in that. Thank you, sir, Monday, Christmas and 464 00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 2: happy holidays, Jim, Karen, that have Morgan Stanley. This is 465 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Sevenants podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, angiopolitics. 466 00:21:44,119 --> 00:21:46,600 Speaker 2: You can watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday 467 00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 2: mornings from six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to 468 00:21:49,880 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 2: the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 469 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,000 Speaker 2: and as always on the Bloomblog terminal and the Bloomberg 470 00:21:56,040 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 2: Business Amp.