1
00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:07,680
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

2
00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,520
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak you're at podcast Good morning,

3
00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:14,480
Speaker 2: It's finding the twenty ninth of August.

4
00:00:14,560 --> 00:00:17,640
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepga in London. Coming up today.

5
00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:21,600
Speaker 2: Germany's Mertz pours cold water on a Putin Zelinsky meeting

6
00:00:21,960 --> 00:00:25,919
Speaker 2: as a devastating strike kills more than twenty people and

7
00:00:26,079 --> 00:00:30,760
Speaker 2: damages the EU's Ukraine headquarters. The fired's Christopher Wallace says

8
00:00:30,880 --> 00:00:33,680
Speaker 2: he would support a quarter point rate reduction as he

9
00:00:33,760 --> 00:00:36,720
Speaker 2: opens the door to going further and stocks hit a

10
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:41,840
Speaker 2: new record high, plus reforming its appeal to business. Polling

11
00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,839
Speaker 2: shared exclusively with Bloomberg shows lobbyists are lining up to

12
00:00:45,920 --> 00:00:50,680
Speaker 2: attend the annual conference of Nigel Farage's populist party. Let's

13
00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,120
Speaker 2: start with a roundup of our top stories. A meeting

14
00:00:53,200 --> 00:00:57,880
Speaker 2: between Ukrainian President Vladimizolinsky and Russia's Vladimir Putin is unlikely

15
00:00:58,000 --> 00:01:01,560
Speaker 2: to happen, according to the German chance Friedrich Mertz. US

16
00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:04,760
Speaker 2: President Donald Trump had talked up the possibility of a

17
00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,840
Speaker 2: gathering of the two leaders after he held talks with

18
00:01:08,040 --> 00:01:11,440
Speaker 2: Putin in Alaska, but during a conference with the French president,

19
00:01:11,480 --> 00:01:14,120
Speaker 2: I man who in Macot. Mertz told reporters that a

20
00:01:14,200 --> 00:01:16,440
Speaker 2: meeting is highly unlikely, so.

21
00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:18,640
Speaker 1: Try it the Causen farm.

22
00:01:19,040 --> 00:01:21,880
Speaker 3: But tonight we also want to talk again just the

23
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:24,280
Speaker 3: two of us about the big issues of our time,

24
00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,840
Speaker 3: because we have some tasks that we can only solve together. Unfortunately,

25
00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:33,000
Speaker 3: this includes Russia's ongoing war against Ukraine. We must revisit

26
00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,920
Speaker 3: this issue today, given that it is clear that a

27
00:01:36,000 --> 00:01:40,240
Speaker 3: meeting between President Zelenski and President Putin will not take place.

28
00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:43,479
Speaker 3: This is in contrast to what was agreed between President

29
00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:46,440
Speaker 3: Trump and President Putin last week when we were together

30
00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:47,200
Speaker 3: in Washington.

31
00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:52,840
Speaker 2: Metis comment and spoken there via a translator. Follow the

32
00:01:52,960 --> 00:01:56,720
Speaker 2: deadliest Russian air strikes on Kiev since July, in which

33
00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:00,160
Speaker 2: more than twenty people, including several children, were killed, a

34
00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,080
Speaker 2: European Union office and a British Council building in the

35
00:02:03,160 --> 00:02:05,920
Speaker 2: capitol have also been damaged in the attack, the EU

36
00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:10,120
Speaker 2: Commission president as Ondulion says the onslaught shows the scale

37
00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:11,560
Speaker 2: of Russia's threat to Europe.

38
00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:15,120
Speaker 4: It shows that the Kremlin will stop at nothing to

39
00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:20,639
Speaker 4: terrorize Ukraine, blindly killing civilians, men, women and children, and

40
00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,000
Speaker 4: even targeting the European Union. This is why we are

41
00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:28,440
Speaker 4: keeping maximum pressure on Russia. That means tightening our sanctions

42
00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,160
Speaker 4: regime as sort of onderliance.

43
00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,160
Speaker 2: Comments were echoed by the UK Prime Minister Kis Starmer,

44
00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:38,280
Speaker 2: who condemned the quote senseless Russian attack on Kiev. The

45
00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:42,320
Speaker 2: US has approved Ukraine's requests to buy thousands of long

46
00:02:42,560 --> 00:02:45,880
Speaker 2: range missiles worth up to eight hundred and twenty five

47
00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:51,040
Speaker 2: million dollars and funded NATO allies. The approval marks the

48
00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:54,240
Speaker 2: first formal use of a new mechanism that President Donald

49
00:02:54,240 --> 00:03:00,280
Speaker 2: Trump approved to allow nations to buy American weaponry for Ukraine. France,

50
00:03:00,320 --> 00:03:03,360
Speaker 2: Germany and the UK have referred Iran to the United

51
00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:07,560
Speaker 2: Nations to face the reimposition of international sanctions over its

52
00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:11,440
Speaker 2: nuclear program. According to the European Powers, the Islamic Republic

53
00:03:11,560 --> 00:03:14,680
Speaker 2: failed to comply with demands to negotiate with the US

54
00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:18,720
Speaker 2: and allow nuclear inspectors to resume their work. Europe's biggest

55
00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:21,760
Speaker 2: economies told the UN Security Council that they triggered a

56
00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:27,079
Speaker 2: thirty date snapback process that would reinstate sanctions originally lifted

57
00:03:27,440 --> 00:03:30,360
Speaker 2: as part of a twenty fifteen deal. Iran has threatened

58
00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,040
Speaker 2: to leave the International Treaty on nuclear non proliferation. If

59
00:03:34,200 --> 00:03:38,640
Speaker 2: UN sanctions resume, such a move would permanently throttle nuclear

60
00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 2: inspections and also create deeper ambiguity about Iran's atomic activities.

61
00:03:45,360 --> 00:03:48,960
Speaker 2: The European Union has adopted draft regulations to remove all

62
00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:53,200
Speaker 2: tariffs on US industrial goods, following a demand from President Trump.

63
00:03:53,440 --> 00:03:56,200
Speaker 2: According to the European Commission, the move, which also gives

64
00:03:56,280 --> 00:04:00,880
Speaker 2: preferential treatment to some US agricultural products, pave the way

65
00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:04,320
Speaker 2: for the US to reduce its tariffs on European cars

66
00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:08,520
Speaker 2: and auto parts down to fifteen percent from twenty seven percent.

67
00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:12,840
Speaker 2: The proposal is still subject to parliamentary approval, though, but

68
00:04:12,880 --> 00:04:15,560
Speaker 2: Bloomberg understands that the EU expects that the US will

69
00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:18,880
Speaker 2: be able to lower its levees on the region immediately.

70
00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:22,440
Speaker 2: Let's get to the central Bank in the US, so

71
00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:25,200
Speaker 2: the Federal Reserve Governor, Christopher Wallace says that he would

72
00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:28,720
Speaker 2: support a twenty five basis point rate cut in September,

73
00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:32,440
Speaker 2: and he expects further cuts in the coming months. Waller,

74
00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,480
Speaker 2: whom the Trump administration is considering as a candidate to

75
00:04:35,680 --> 00:04:39,440
Speaker 2: replace current chair Jerown Powell, added that he's leaving the

76
00:04:39,560 --> 00:04:42,880
Speaker 2: door open to a Jombo half point rate card if

77
00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:47,000
Speaker 2: the data points to a significant deterioration in US growth.

78
00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:49,640
Speaker 2: Here is what he told an audience at an event

79
00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,039
Speaker 2: that was hosted by the Economic Club of Miami.

80
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,680
Speaker 5: Well, I judge that THEIRFORMC should have begun this process

81
00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,400
Speaker 5: in July based on the data in hand, I don't

82
00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,719
Speaker 5: believe that a cut of larger than twenty five basis

83
00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,920
Speaker 5: points is needed in September. Now. That view, of course,

84
00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:07,600
Speaker 5: could change if the employment report for August do out

85
00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,720
Speaker 5: a week from tomorrow points to or substantially weakening economy

86
00:05:11,839 --> 00:05:13,640
Speaker 5: and inflation remains well contained.

87
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,400
Speaker 2: Christopher Waller. His comments are the first by a top

88
00:05:17,560 --> 00:05:20,840
Speaker 2: FED official since President Trump moved this week to fire

89
00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,800
Speaker 2: fellow Central Bank Governor Lisa Cook. The Fed has kept

90
00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:30,160
Speaker 2: US interest rates unchanged so far in twenty twenty five. Yesterday,

91
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,680
Speaker 2: FED Governor Lisa Cook sued to block what she called

92
00:05:33,720 --> 00:05:37,240
Speaker 2: President Trump's illegal attempt to remove her, saying that he

93
00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:41,640
Speaker 2: has no cause and denied her due process. The case

94
00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,440
Speaker 2: centers on allegations that she listed to homes as her

95
00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:48,719
Speaker 2: primary residence in twenty twenty one, therefore gaining better mortgage terms.

96
00:05:48,960 --> 00:05:53,240
Speaker 2: Her lawyer suggests this may have been an unintentional clerical

97
00:05:53,480 --> 00:05:56,520
Speaker 2: error and was not done with the intention to deceive.

98
00:05:57,040 --> 00:06:00,279
Speaker 2: Cook's lawsuit also says that the attempt to remove both

99
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:04,159
Speaker 2: her and her own palell are part of President Trump's

100
00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:07,599
Speaker 2: efforts to seize control of the Federal Reserve as part

101
00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:12,240
Speaker 2: of his campaign to lower rates. Despite growing concerns over

102
00:06:12,240 --> 00:06:16,680
Speaker 2: the Trump administration's efforts to erode FED independence, solid US

103
00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,279
Speaker 2: economic figures helped drive stocks for a record high yesterday,

104
00:06:20,480 --> 00:06:23,320
Speaker 2: with the S and P five hundred above six five

105
00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,880
Speaker 2: hundred points for the first time ever, just twenty four

106
00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:30,440
Speaker 2: hours ahead of the release of the Fed's favored price gauge.

107
00:06:30,960 --> 00:06:34,520
Speaker 2: Data shows the US economy expanded faster than had initially

108
00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:39,360
Speaker 2: been estimated. Inflation adjusted GDP increased at a three point

109
00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:43,360
Speaker 2: three percent pace in the second quarter, underscoring the resilience

110
00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:49,480
Speaker 2: of America's primary growth engine, consumer spending and lostly Here

111
00:06:49,480 --> 00:06:52,880
Speaker 2: in the UK, a think tank says that the Chancellor

112
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:56,400
Speaker 2: should raise billions of pounds of much needed revenue by

113
00:06:56,480 --> 00:07:00,760
Speaker 2: imposing a windfall tax on commercial lenders bigs and pots.

114
00:07:00,800 --> 00:07:03,760
Speaker 6: Has more The plans from the left leaning Institute for

115
00:07:03,839 --> 00:07:06,479
Speaker 6: Public Policy Research says the government should look to recover

116
00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,680
Speaker 6: the profits banks are making from taxpayers on deposits held

117
00:07:09,760 --> 00:07:11,960
Speaker 6: at the Bank of England. It says high street lenders

118
00:07:12,000 --> 00:07:15,280
Speaker 6: have enjoyed a quote staggering state subsidy on the BOE's

119
00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,720
Speaker 6: QE program in recent years. Across the current five year

120
00:07:18,760 --> 00:07:21,480
Speaker 6: parliamentary term. The report suggests the treasurre we could raise

121
00:07:21,520 --> 00:07:24,400
Speaker 6: a total of thirty two point three billion.

122
00:07:24,120 --> 00:07:27,320
Speaker 2: Pounds in London. I'm you in pots Bloomberg Radio and

123
00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:29,680
Speaker 2: those are our top stories for you this morning. Let's

124
00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:31,800
Speaker 2: have a think about the markets. We are awaiting cover

125
00:07:31,880 --> 00:07:34,160
Speaker 2: of big earnings out of China, Ali Baba and byd.

126
00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:37,880
Speaker 2: Chinese equities have extended this incredible run in August, but

127
00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:39,480
Speaker 2: then also we saw the S and p F one

128
00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:41,760
Speaker 2: hundred close of the record high, as I mentioned just

129
00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:45,520
Speaker 2: there earlier yesterday. In terms of stop futures, we're down

130
00:07:45,560 --> 00:07:46,840
Speaker 2: for the S and P FI one hundred and tenth

131
00:07:46,840 --> 00:07:50,360
Speaker 2: of one percent. Yust swifty futures are also nursing losses

132
00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,760
Speaker 2: this as in the bond markets, it's just an incredible week.

133
00:07:53,840 --> 00:07:56,480
Speaker 2: This has been a real pivotal point. The political pressure

134
00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,160
Speaker 2: on the fared only mounting, but bond markets really are

135
00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:03,160
Speaker 2: still very sanguine about this ten year US yields are

136
00:08:03,200 --> 00:08:06,240
Speaker 2: trading upper basis point at four twenty one, thirty year

137
00:08:06,320 --> 00:08:09,800
Speaker 2: yields trading at four eighty eight also hire only a

138
00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:14,040
Speaker 2: basis point today, and then thinking about the dollar, which

139
00:08:14,480 --> 00:08:17,600
Speaker 2: had seen losses for three successive sessions, the Blue Big

140
00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,400
Speaker 2: Dollar Spot index this morning is actually firmer a tenth

141
00:08:20,680 --> 00:08:21,760
Speaker 2: of one percent.

142
00:08:22,640 --> 00:08:25,200
Speaker 1: Now, in a moment, we're going to talk more about our.

143
00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:29,560
Speaker 2: Exclusive reporting that shows that the UK business community is

144
00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:35,200
Speaker 2: increasingly taking Nigel Farage's Reform Party seriously as an elector force,

145
00:08:35,440 --> 00:08:38,840
Speaker 2: a special report here for Bloomberg Radio. But I also

146
00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,400
Speaker 2: want to dig into today's top story. German Chancellor Friedrich

147
00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,480
Speaker 2: Mertz says that there is obviously not going to be

148
00:08:45,559 --> 00:08:49,840
Speaker 2: a meeting between President Zelinsky and President Putin to resolve

149
00:08:49,880 --> 00:08:53,240
Speaker 2: the war in Ukraine, even as Russia launched a major

150
00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:56,240
Speaker 2: air attack on Kiev in defiance of the US's please

151
00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,880
Speaker 2: to end the fighting. Our head of Middle East and

152
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:03,480
Speaker 2: North Africa coverage, Suitt Livingston Wallace joins US Now for

153
00:09:03,760 --> 00:09:04,199
Speaker 2: more on this.

154
00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:06,240
Speaker 1: Su At Good Morning, the White.

155
00:09:06,080 --> 00:09:08,959
Speaker 2: House Press Secretary says that Trump is quote not happy

156
00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:12,720
Speaker 2: with Putin, but then equally she framed the latest Russian

157
00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:17,160
Speaker 2: air strike as a response to Ukraine's Russia oil refinery

158
00:09:17,200 --> 00:09:20,280
Speaker 2: at Chacks. What is the state of the conflict now,

159
00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:24,319
Speaker 2: and also very importantly of US military support for Ukraine.

160
00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:27,199
Speaker 7: Very good morning. So I mean, I think there is

161
00:09:27,440 --> 00:09:30,559
Speaker 7: quite a significant change here going on, certainly in terms

162
00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,559
Speaker 7: of the front line. So it's really, I suppose a

163
00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:35,640
Speaker 7: combination of things. And you can start, let's say, with

164
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:39,240
Speaker 7: the US, which has to some extent resumed supplies to Ukraine.

165
00:09:39,320 --> 00:09:42,040
Speaker 7: That's making quite a big difference. Secondarily, you're seeing more

166
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:44,959
Speaker 7: munitions coming in from the Europeans into Ukraine, and that's

167
00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:49,880
Speaker 7: sort of giving them the ability to counter the previous

168
00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,640
Speaker 7: Russian strategy of sort of wave after wave of soldiers

169
00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:56,000
Speaker 7: being sent into specific areas to try and break through

170
00:09:56,040 --> 00:09:59,040
Speaker 7: the front lines. But I think the third thing, and

171
00:09:59,160 --> 00:10:02,600
Speaker 7: perhaps the most certainly, is a change in the Russian strategy.

172
00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:04,439
Speaker 7: So you've seen a sort of a shift away from

173
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:07,760
Speaker 7: those waves of soldiers coming in too much more incremental

174
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:12,719
Speaker 7: moves by smaller groups of soldiers, combined with quite a

175
00:10:12,800 --> 00:10:14,920
Speaker 7: significant change in the air war strategy. And you know,

176
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,679
Speaker 7: as you mentioned, there have been some very significant attacks

177
00:10:17,720 --> 00:10:20,320
Speaker 7: with sort of hundreds of drones combined with missile attacks

178
00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:23,880
Speaker 7: coming in simultaneously as a way of trying to overwhelm

179
00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 7: the Ukrainian defenses. And it is having some effects, certainly

180
00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:30,000
Speaker 7: in terms of the amount of damage being caused in Ukraine.

181
00:10:30,720 --> 00:10:32,680
Speaker 7: And that is a function I think of a change

182
00:10:32,760 --> 00:10:36,439
Speaker 7: in the Russian manufacturing strategy. So previously they would bring

183
00:10:36,520 --> 00:10:40,599
Speaker 7: in pretty much, you know, completed drones from some of

184
00:10:40,640 --> 00:10:44,480
Speaker 7: their suppliers, notably Iran, and what seems to have changed

185
00:10:44,559 --> 00:10:46,360
Speaker 7: is they are still bringing in the components, but they're

186
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:49,080
Speaker 7: putting them together themselves, and that makes it much much

187
00:10:49,160 --> 00:10:52,319
Speaker 7: more difficult to disrupt the supply chains. So they have

188
00:10:52,679 --> 00:10:55,439
Speaker 7: a lot more equipment to throw at the Ukrainians in

189
00:10:55,520 --> 00:10:59,079
Speaker 7: one go. Simultaneously, they are running out of the stockpiles

190
00:10:59,120 --> 00:11:01,439
Speaker 7: that they accumulated over many decades of sort of the

191
00:11:01,520 --> 00:11:04,320
Speaker 7: older military equipment right back to the Soviet era.

192
00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,960
Speaker 2: So then, on the comments that I mentioned from Mafriedrich

193
00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:12,800
Speaker 2: Mertz openly critical a President Trump's peace push in Ukraine.

194
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:16,840
Speaker 2: This was at a dinner with the French president in Macon.

195
00:11:17,400 --> 00:11:19,960
Speaker 2: What at this stage, with all of these moving parts, then,

196
00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,160
Speaker 2: is the European strategy on Ukraine.

197
00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:22,800
Speaker 1: If there is one.

198
00:11:23,080 --> 00:11:25,199
Speaker 7: I mean, I think it's been reasonably consistent in the

199
00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:28,959
Speaker 7: last searching of the last several months and in the

200
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,480
Speaker 7: last several years. I mean, the amount of aid going

201
00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,400
Speaker 7: from Europe into Ukraine has been substantial, and I think

202
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:39,000
Speaker 7: the water date we're looking at something like sixty billion

203
00:11:39,040 --> 00:11:42,160
Speaker 7: euros in aid one way or another, and just sort

204
00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:43,880
Speaker 7: of to give you a flavor of the scale of it,

205
00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:48,679
Speaker 7: the EU has pledged to provide Ukraine with something like

206
00:11:48,760 --> 00:11:51,599
Speaker 7: two million rounds of ammunition in twenty five so it

207
00:11:51,720 --> 00:11:54,839
Speaker 7: is large scale. At the same time, you're seeing some

208
00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:58,079
Speaker 7: very interesting developments in terms of the Europeans willingness to

209
00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:00,679
Speaker 7: fund purchases from elsewhere. So there was a very interesting

210
00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:04,320
Speaker 7: thing overnight where we've had preliminary approval from the State

211
00:12:04,400 --> 00:12:07,679
Speaker 7: Department to supply Ukraine with something like just I think

212
00:12:07,720 --> 00:12:11,480
Speaker 7: it's just over three thousand long range missiles to Ukraine,

213
00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:15,360
Speaker 7: a big chunk of which will be paid for by Denmark,

214
00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:18,360
Speaker 7: the Netherlands and Norway. So that is also new now

215
00:12:18,400 --> 00:12:20,120
Speaker 7: that still has to go to Congress for approval, but

216
00:12:20,200 --> 00:12:23,200
Speaker 7: it looks pretty likely. So I would say the scale

217
00:12:23,600 --> 00:12:26,839
Speaker 7: of the U intervention is still pretty large and is

218
00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:27,760
Speaker 7: having some impact.

219
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:32,719
Speaker 2: What about President Trump and these very serious consequences that

220
00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,880
Speaker 2: he has threatened. I suppose the risk for Putin is

221
00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:40,720
Speaker 2: that President Trump does actually act against Russia, perhaps quite suddenly.

222
00:12:41,800 --> 00:12:43,600
Speaker 7: I think you're absolutely right, and I think we've got

223
00:12:43,640 --> 00:12:46,160
Speaker 7: a flavor of that with the way that it dealt

224
00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:49,040
Speaker 7: with India, you know, one of the big purch purchases

225
00:12:49,120 --> 00:12:52,240
Speaker 7: of Russian oil with these you know, the tariffs, and

226
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:55,880
Speaker 7: you have seen a very small incremental but nonetheless I

227
00:12:55,920 --> 00:12:59,000
Speaker 7: think significant change in terms of the Russian oil flows

228
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:02,719
Speaker 7: out now risk here for the US's you know, the

229
00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:07,559
Speaker 7: US president's intent on bringing down interest rates, and in

230
00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:11,280
Speaker 7: an environment where you know he puts secondary sanctions, very

231
00:13:11,320 --> 00:13:14,880
Speaker 7: harsh secondary sanctions on any buyers of Russian commodities, you're

232
00:13:14,920 --> 00:13:17,280
Speaker 7: going to see you would have thought some increase in

233
00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:21,719
Speaker 7: the energy price, perhaps quite significant, and other commodities, and

234
00:13:21,840 --> 00:13:23,839
Speaker 7: then that has an inflationary impact, and it makes it

235
00:13:23,960 --> 00:13:26,240
Speaker 7: much more difficult than to lower interest rates. So there

236
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,040
Speaker 7: is a domino effect here that he's going to have

237
00:13:28,120 --> 00:13:30,959
Speaker 7: to be mindful of. But I think you're absolutely right

238
00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:32,959
Speaker 7: that you've already started to see signs of that, and

239
00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:34,880
Speaker 7: there is no doubt that I think there is a

240
00:13:34,960 --> 00:13:37,840
Speaker 7: great deal of frustration on the US side that even

241
00:13:37,880 --> 00:13:39,800
Speaker 7: after the summit in Alaska, they appeared to be no

242
00:13:39,920 --> 00:13:42,839
Speaker 7: further forward than where they were several months ago.

243
00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:44,920
Speaker 1: Stuart, thank you so much for being with me.

244
00:13:45,280 --> 00:13:47,520
Speaker 2: Suet living Ston Wallace is our head of Middle East

245
00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,120
Speaker 2: and North Africa coverage with the latest when it comes

246
00:13:50,160 --> 00:13:51,120
Speaker 2: to Ukraine.

247
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:51,920
Speaker 1: Thank you so much.

248
00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Daybakeuobe coming up after this. Okay,

249
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:01,359
Speaker 2: let's get to a story here in the UK. Lobbyists

250
00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:05,000
Speaker 2: are lining up to attend Reform UK's annual conference, which

251
00:14:05,040 --> 00:14:08,760
Speaker 2: takes place next week. Twenty percent of public affairs executives

252
00:14:08,840 --> 00:14:12,079
Speaker 2: are planning to head to Nigel Faraj's event, according to

253
00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:16,200
Speaker 2: data obtained exclusively by Bloomberg. It's a sign that corporate

254
00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:20,120
Speaker 2: Britain is increasingly taking the Populist Party seriously as an

255
00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:21,160
Speaker 2: electoral force.

256
00:14:21,480 --> 00:14:22,880
Speaker 1: Are UK Politics reported.

257
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,720
Speaker 2: James Wacock hasmore and joins me this morning, James, what

258
00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:30,320
Speaker 2: does this poll actually show that we've managed to put together?

259
00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,280
Speaker 8: I've got my hands on this pole of people who

260
00:14:33,320 --> 00:14:35,760
Speaker 8: are in public affairs. This is both lobbying groups but

261
00:14:35,840 --> 00:14:38,520
Speaker 8: also any business that is big enough to have a

262
00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:40,880
Speaker 8: public relation's wing, so office is, ones that are in

263
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:45,840
Speaker 8: book government, so finance, health, education, these types of areas.

264
00:14:46,440 --> 00:14:49,600
Speaker 8: And two years ago only four percent of the three

265
00:14:49,720 --> 00:14:53,200
Speaker 8: hundred executives polled went to reform. Last year, twelve percent

266
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,720
Speaker 8: this year. Next week at their conference, twenty percent of

267
00:14:56,800 --> 00:14:59,200
Speaker 8: those we polled say they will go. That is a

268
00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:03,160
Speaker 8: rapid run and puts them very clearly ahead of any

269
00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:06,600
Speaker 8: of the minor parties four percent behind the Conservatives, the

270
00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:08,640
Speaker 8: other major party in sort of bridge posites on the

271
00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:13,280
Speaker 8: right and labor as the government dominate with forty eight percent,

272
00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:18,360
Speaker 8: But it quite clearly establishes Reform as someone a party

273
00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,720
Speaker 8: that is growing in political and business heft. Now I

274
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,320
Speaker 8: spoke to Opinion's head they did this poll of public affairs,

275
00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,720
Speaker 8: James Crouch. He told me for the first time, businesses

276
00:15:29,800 --> 00:15:31,440
Speaker 8: are taking reform seriously.

277
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:37,280
Speaker 1: You can't ignore them anymore. Whether or not this trend continues.

278
00:15:37,080 --> 00:15:39,240
Speaker 9: And whether or not more resource will eventually be put

279
00:15:39,280 --> 00:15:42,120
Speaker 9: into them, I think that depends on how how the

280
00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:45,640
Speaker 9: headline polling goes over the next year, and will be

281
00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,720
Speaker 9: looking particularly intenderly at the next local elections, because that

282
00:15:49,760 --> 00:15:54,280
Speaker 9: would be the next electoral sign that actually reform are

283
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,280
Speaker 9: in contention for government and you definitely won't be able

284
00:15:57,320 --> 00:15:57,960
Speaker 9: to ignore them.

285
00:15:58,360 --> 00:16:01,200
Speaker 8: So James corouch there and he and that the key

286
00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:02,720
Speaker 8: question for a lot of the people that he was

287
00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,080
Speaker 8: talking to for this poll was next week what kind

288
00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:06,760
Speaker 8: of conference?

289
00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:08,560
Speaker 1: Is it a professional affair?

290
00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:11,120
Speaker 8: Because he s as soon if the trend continues, the

291
00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:14,400
Speaker 8: reform could easily rival the Conservatives as one of the

292
00:16:14,440 --> 00:16:16,360
Speaker 8: two key fixtures of conference season.

293
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,360
Speaker 2: Yes, which is so fascinating, isn't it. And I also

294
00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,680
Speaker 2: thought it was very interesting that the poll speaks to small, medium,

295
00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:27,520
Speaker 2: and large businesses. It was broken up into lots of

296
00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,840
Speaker 2: as you say, different sectors of the economy, different scale

297
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:34,040
Speaker 2: of businesses too, which I think gives us some very

298
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:37,280
Speaker 2: kind of granular insights actually into how business thinks about this.

299
00:16:38,240 --> 00:16:40,960
Speaker 2: It comes though, as the Labor government faces all of

300
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:45,040
Speaker 2: these tough questions over their credentials about whether or not

301
00:16:45,200 --> 00:16:47,160
Speaker 2: they are the party of business. I mean, this was

302
00:16:47,200 --> 00:16:49,120
Speaker 2: the thing that we followed in the election campaign.

303
00:16:49,160 --> 00:16:51,440
Speaker 8: I think just this morning there is a report out

304
00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:53,560
Speaker 8: from the sort of left wing think tank, the IPPR

305
00:16:54,080 --> 00:16:56,880
Speaker 8: talking about a potential windfall tax on banks coming down

306
00:16:56,960 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 8: on the track. Now, look, no one at this point

307
00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:01,000
Speaker 8: knows what is going to be in chance of Rachel

308
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:05,680
Speaker 8: Reeves's autumn budget, but most economists are saying there is

309
00:17:05,760 --> 00:17:08,680
Speaker 8: going to be a public issue with the finances and

310
00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:10,680
Speaker 8: the one that she will have to fill by raising

311
00:17:10,720 --> 00:17:13,400
Speaker 8: taxes or cutting spending somewhere, and that has a lot

312
00:17:13,440 --> 00:17:16,600
Speaker 8: of businesses worried that they will be the targets. Now,

313
00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:20,600
Speaker 8: the sources in government have told me just this week

314
00:17:21,320 --> 00:17:23,200
Speaker 8: that they have taken note of the business response and

315
00:17:23,240 --> 00:17:26,240
Speaker 8: they are looking to try and keep UKPLC on side.

316
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,040
Speaker 1: But after last year, where as you.

317
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,080
Speaker 8: Were saying, Karen, all the talk in the literally election

318
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,480
Speaker 8: was the smoke salmon offensive and Rachel rees and Keir

319
00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,440
Speaker 8: Starmer building relations with business, and then there was this

320
00:17:37,600 --> 00:17:40,560
Speaker 8: massive rise in national insurance taxes on business and so

321
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,040
Speaker 8: a lot of business leaders you've seen in the press

322
00:17:43,119 --> 00:17:46,000
Speaker 8: have felt kind of betrayed. This year, the question is

323
00:17:46,040 --> 00:17:48,280
Speaker 8: for labor is, especially in this autumn, where we like

324
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 8: to get the employment rights bill as well, what is

325
00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:54,880
Speaker 8: the offering to sort of woo business back. Meanwhile, as

326
00:17:54,920 --> 00:17:56,960
Speaker 8: we get into conference season, will we see the rival

327
00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:58,280
Speaker 8: pictures from other parties?

328
00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:01,359
Speaker 2: Yes, But my question of conference season is also whether

329
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 2: any political party is facing the very difficult questions that

330
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 2: Britain has right of indebtedness of government spending and addressing

331
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:13,159
Speaker 2: those and that is the same very tough question for reform.

332
00:18:13,359 --> 00:18:15,520
Speaker 2: It's the question that we put to Nigel Farage when

333
00:18:15,520 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 2: he spoke to us at the start of this year,

334
00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,800
Speaker 2: and so again it can Nigel Phage emerge as a

335
00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:25,080
Speaker 2: serious contender for prime minister and what does that path

336
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:25,600
Speaker 2: look like?

337
00:18:26,520 --> 00:18:29,240
Speaker 1: To your point, there is curiosity.

338
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,639
Speaker 8: There is deep curiosity in the people that were spoken

339
00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:36,160
Speaker 8: to this Poleish commissioned by the Charter Institute for Public Relations,

340
00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,119
Speaker 8: because they also are members trying to get involved with

341
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:41,920
Speaker 8: Reform House. Everyone's trying to figure out how serious is

342
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:44,760
Speaker 8: this nascent political party, how much hes does it have,

343
00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:48,560
Speaker 8: how lobbyable are they, how much influence they have. Business

344
00:18:48,640 --> 00:18:51,960
Speaker 8: are asking is this a group that we could work with?

345
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 8: Is this the group that we can influence? And the

346
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:56,640
Speaker 8: other thing I found fascinating is the money is going

347
00:18:56,720 --> 00:19:01,040
Speaker 8: there too. The average spend on informs conferences seventeen thousand

348
00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:05,160
Speaker 8: per company that we poled. That's half labor the Conservatives,

349
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:07,640
Speaker 8: but their conference is only half in length, so that's

350
00:19:07,680 --> 00:19:10,159
Speaker 8: not two out of our older of the three hundred

351
00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,400
Speaker 8: executives and public affairs we polled, four of their companies

352
00:19:13,480 --> 00:19:16,760
Speaker 8: were putting it more than one hundred thousand into reforms

353
00:19:16,800 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 8: conference next week. So we are finding out that there

354
00:19:19,880 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 8: is increasingly a risk in not checking out reform. That's

355
00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,520
Speaker 8: what the CIPR told me. At this point, you'd be

356
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 8: a fool not to.

357
00:19:28,320 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

358
00:19:29,920 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 10: You're a morning brief on the stories making news from

359
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,119
Speaker 10: London to Wall Streets and beyond.

360
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:38,399
Speaker 2: Look for us on your podcast feed every morning, on Apple, Spotify,

361
00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:40,399
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts.

362
00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:43,560
Speaker 10: You can also listen live each morning on London DAB Radio,

363
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 10: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

364
00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,080
Speaker 2: Our flagship New York station is also available on your

365
00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:53,800
Speaker 2: Amazon Alexa devices. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

366
00:19:54,080 --> 00:19:56,119
Speaker 1: I'm Caroline Hepka and I'm Stephen Carroll.

367
00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,480
Speaker 10: Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

368
00:19:58,600 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 10: need to start your day right here on Bloomberg Daybreak Europe.

369
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: Mm hm