WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jay Bryson & David Rosenberg

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single Best Idea, and today again our team just doing

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<v Speaker 2>a tour de force of getting us incredible conversations. Daniel

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<v Speaker 2>kurtz Phalen was on with Foreign Affairs Magazine. I am

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<v Speaker 2>a member of the Console on Foreign Relations. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>read Foreign Affairs cover to cover. I'd say I read

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<v Speaker 2>three articles every time it comes out. But I just

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<v Speaker 2>can't say enough. If you want to keep up with

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<v Speaker 2>the thought process of foreign affairs and international relations, get

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<v Speaker 2>a subscription to Foreign Affairs Magazine, a physical copy. It's

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<v Speaker 2>in a larger font The articles are brilliant, they're just

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<v Speaker 2>the right length. I can't say enough about what they're doing.

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<v Speaker 2>We had Douglas he went on from Dark about ten

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<v Speaker 2>days ago. He's got a just blistering essay on the tariffs.

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<v Speaker 2>Today we spoke to Jay Brison, his chief economist at

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<v Speaker 2>Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has a thirty year heritage of

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<v Speaker 2>incredible granularity about the American labor economy. Doctor Bryson was

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<v Speaker 2>absolutely brilliant about framing out the weekly jobless claims. Tom.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think it gets us that far, but I

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<v Speaker 3>think you're probably looking at a you know, you're probably

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<v Speaker 3>looking in the two fifty to two seventy five sort

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<v Speaker 3>of range. If you get up to three hundred, if

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<v Speaker 3>we go from you know, roughly two twenty right now

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<v Speaker 3>up to three hundred per week, you're getting pretty close

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<v Speaker 3>to a recession at that point. And so yeah, you know,

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<v Speaker 3>I think you know you're four point four. You're you're

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<v Speaker 3>looking at us getting up into the two fifty two

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<v Speaker 3>seventy five.

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<v Speaker 2>And the Courson backdrop for that was the headline yesterday

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<v Speaker 2>amid all the FED stuff about them out this move

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<v Speaker 2>from four point one to four point four percent unemployment.

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<v Speaker 2>All I can say is, if you pull up a

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg actually I have this function memorized at very few

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<v Speaker 2>memorized us R TOT index, and you put it up

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<v Speaker 2>and you go back and type in nineteen forty seven,

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<v Speaker 2>you could see the huge, huge history of the unemployment rate.

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<v Speaker 2>And all you need to know is when it goes,

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<v Speaker 2>it goes. And so here at four point one. A

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<v Speaker 2>move to four point four would be sobering in terms

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<v Speaker 2>of the history of that unemployment rate. What a joy

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<v Speaker 2>to speak to. Brian Weezer of Madison Well Brian Weezer

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<v Speaker 2>Expert on advertising and media. We spoke to him. He

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<v Speaker 2>was just brilliant on his Vancouver and on all going

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<v Speaker 2>on between Vancouver and Seattle. We followed that up with

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<v Speaker 2>David Rosenberg of Toronto and Rosenberg Research. Here's David Rosenberg

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<v Speaker 2>on Ontario in the auto industry.

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<v Speaker 4>If the tariffs end up applying the twenty five percent

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<v Speaker 4>tariffs apply to the auto sector, it's going to detonate

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<v Speaker 4>the Ontario economy. But don't think for a second that

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<v Speaker 4>it's not going to have massive negative spill overs in

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<v Speaker 4>the United States. It's why I don't believe. It's almost

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<v Speaker 4>like a Cuban missile crisis situation. Who's going to blink?

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<v Speaker 4>But you know, the robber beats the road in a

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<v Speaker 4>lot of the Midwestern states too that are red states,

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<v Speaker 4>you know. Causing that amount of dislocation in the auto

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<v Speaker 4>sector is going to bite really hard in Canada Ontario

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<v Speaker 4>in particular, but white swasa the United States are going

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<v Speaker 4>to feel a lot of pain there too.

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<v Speaker 2>David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, We'll have much much more for

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<v Speaker 2>you here to finish them on strong and out of

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<v Speaker 2>the jobs report of course in April, first week of April,

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<v Speaker 2>and that key trade touched. Paul mentioned today April second,

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<v Speaker 2>it seems to be a key tariff day. On your

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<v Speaker 2>commute across the nation, we say good morning, good morning,

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<v Speaker 2>ninety nine one FM Washington, ninety two nine FM up

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<v Speaker 2>in Boston, and on YouTube look to the podcast We're

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<v Speaker 2>on YouTube podcast. This is a single best idea