Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single Best Idea, and today again our team just doing
Speaker 2: a tour de force of getting us incredible conversations. Daniel
Speaker 2: kurtz Phalen was on with Foreign Affairs Magazine. I am
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Speaker 2: read Foreign Affairs cover to cover. I'd say I read
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Speaker 2: We had Douglas he went on from Dark about ten
Speaker 2: days ago. He's got a just blistering essay on the tariffs.
Speaker 2: Today we spoke to Jay Brison, his chief economist at
Speaker 2: Wells Fargo. Wells Fargo has a thirty year heritage of
Speaker 2: incredible granularity about the American labor economy. Doctor Bryson was
Speaker 2: absolutely brilliant about framing out the weekly jobless claims. Tom.
Speaker 3: I don't think it gets us that far, but I
Speaker 3: think you're probably looking at a you know, you're probably
Speaker 3: looking in the two fifty to two seventy five sort
Speaker 3: of range. If you get up to three hundred, if
Speaker 3: we go from you know, roughly two twenty right now
Speaker 3: up to three hundred per week, you're getting pretty close
Speaker 3: to a recession at that point. And so yeah, you know,
Speaker 3: I think you know you're four point four. You're you're
Speaker 3: looking at us getting up into the two fifty two
Speaker 3: seventy five.
Speaker 2: And the Courson backdrop for that was the headline yesterday
Speaker 2: amid all the FED stuff about them out this move
Speaker 2: from four point one to four point four percent unemployment.
Speaker 2: All I can say is, if you pull up a
Speaker 2: Bloomberg actually I have this function memorized at very few
Speaker 2: memorized us R TOT index, and you put it up
Speaker 2: and you go back and type in nineteen forty seven,
Speaker 2: you could see the huge, huge history of the unemployment rate.
Speaker 2: And all you need to know is when it goes,
Speaker 2: it goes. And so here at four point one. A
Speaker 2: move to four point four would be sobering in terms
Speaker 2: of the history of that unemployment rate. What a joy
Speaker 2: to speak to. Brian Weezer of Madison Well Brian Weezer
Speaker 2: Expert on advertising and media. We spoke to him. He
Speaker 2: was just brilliant on his Vancouver and on all going
Speaker 2: on between Vancouver and Seattle. We followed that up with
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg of Toronto and Rosenberg Research. Here's David Rosenberg
Speaker 2: on Ontario in the auto industry.
Speaker 4: If the tariffs end up applying the twenty five percent
Speaker 4: tariffs apply to the auto sector, it's going to detonate
Speaker 4: the Ontario economy. But don't think for a second that
Speaker 4: it's not going to have massive negative spill overs in
Speaker 4: the United States. It's why I don't believe. It's almost
Speaker 4: like a Cuban missile crisis situation. Who's going to blink?
Speaker 4: But you know, the robber beats the road in a
Speaker 4: lot of the Midwestern states too that are red states,
Speaker 4: you know. Causing that amount of dislocation in the auto
Speaker 4: sector is going to bite really hard in Canada Ontario
Speaker 4: in particular, but white swasa the United States are going
Speaker 4: to feel a lot of pain there too.
Speaker 2: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, We'll have much much more for
Speaker 2: you here to finish them on strong and out of
Speaker 2: the jobs report of course in April, first week of April,
Speaker 2: and that key trade touched. Paul mentioned today April second,
Speaker 2: it seems to be a key tariff day. On your
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