WEBVTT - Carley Garner on Biden Comments (Audio)

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get to our next guest. We're talking to Kylie Ghana,

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<v Speaker 1>senior commodity strategistem broker at the Kylieue Trading And of course, Kylie,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had the press conference this morning from President Biden

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<v Speaker 1>talking about he would how he would look to impose

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<v Speaker 1>higher taxes on oil companies that record windfoil windfall profits

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<v Speaker 1>without reinvesting this in production. How realistic is this policy

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<v Speaker 1>From the looks of things, I think this is more talk.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that it's realistic that we would actually

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<v Speaker 1>have it. He would actually have a chance to implement

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<v Speaker 1>this policy, but I think he just the talk actually

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<v Speaker 1>does quite a bit of damage to market confidence. And

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<v Speaker 1>the reality is commodities are a boom and bust industry.

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<v Speaker 1>The highs are really high and the lows are really low.

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<v Speaker 1>So if we're gonna a tax success, we're probably gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have to prepare to subsidize during bad times because the

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<v Speaker 1>bad times will come back around. They always do. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it was a pretty long period about five teen years

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<v Speaker 1>or so that the oil industry struggled a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you look at even excellent mobiles, um

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<v Speaker 1>stop price it's now it's at ten dollars, but it

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<v Speaker 1>was at ninety three dollars back in in two thousand

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<v Speaker 1>and seven, so that's not a huge gain. It's only

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<v Speaker 1>a gain over over all this many years, fifteen years, um.

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<v Speaker 1>And and the oil price itself was at eighty dollars

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<v Speaker 1>back in those in those mid two thousand's as as well. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>The President when he made his comments today, really referred

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<v Speaker 1>to the big change from last year to this year.

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<v Speaker 1>But is there a little bit of a loss of

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<v Speaker 1>perspective in all of this? In my opinion, there is.

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<v Speaker 1>I really don't like the spirit of of this type

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<v Speaker 1>of policy. I mean, the reality is tax cuts deter

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<v Speaker 1>investment in new production as opposed to doing the opposite,

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<v Speaker 1>which I believe is the goal is to get oil

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<v Speaker 1>producers to produce more. But the reality is, unfortunately nobody

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<v Speaker 1>wants to hear this, but maybe tax breaks two small

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<v Speaker 1>producers might be a way to do that. Um. Maybe

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<v Speaker 1>low uh sorry, low interest rate loans too small producers,

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<v Speaker 1>because it is the small producers that don't have to

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<v Speaker 1>answer to shareholders and they're the ones they can pick

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<v Speaker 1>up the slack, and they have been picking up the slack.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at the US production at this particular time,

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<v Speaker 1>we're almost up to the early levels. Similar Similarly, OPEC

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<v Speaker 1>is as well, so we're producing almost as much oil

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<v Speaker 1>globally as we did in early everybody's still just trying

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<v Speaker 1>to recalibrate from all the chaos. I mean, the oil

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<v Speaker 1>industry has been through two black Swan events in the

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<v Speaker 1>same amount of years. We had the COVID crash and

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<v Speaker 1>then we had the Russian invasion. If it weren't for

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<v Speaker 1>those two events, my opinion is we probably would be

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<v Speaker 1>uh in a comfort zone between about ninety two and

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<v Speaker 1>sixty five that I got that based on a chart

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<v Speaker 1>channel that we had been in trading before and after

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<v Speaker 1>these two events, um with some of very aberrations. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>take a look at the Baker Hues rig count as well.

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<v Speaker 1>That's slowly grinding higher. It's up about from about five

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<v Speaker 1>and thirty now six hundred ten since we had the

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<v Speaker 1>peak of w T I and March. Are you surprised that,

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<v Speaker 1>with prices high and seemingly enduringly high, that we haven't

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<v Speaker 1>seen US shower production crank up a bit more? You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think production is coming, and it's but it's coming

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<v Speaker 1>slower than what we're used to. But to be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think that's such a bad thing in the

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<v Speaker 1>long run. I think price stability is what is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be healthy for both businesses and consumers and and

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<v Speaker 1>everybody involved. It's interesting you mentioned the recount we started

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<v Speaker 1>a couple of years ago. The recount I think was

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<v Speaker 1>somewhere around a hundred and seventy, and you're right now

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<v Speaker 1>we're up around a two hundred, two year high over

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<v Speaker 1>six hundred. So supply is coming. It's just not coming

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<v Speaker 1>as fast as we all wanted to because we were

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<v Speaker 1>feeling it at the pump. But it it is coming,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think, um, ideally, in a perfect world, we'd

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<v Speaker 1>like to see some some bald on thing, like I said, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>somewhere in the sixty five to ninety dollar area crewed.

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<v Speaker 1>Hopefully we'll find the comfort zone and we can I'll

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<v Speaker 1>get back on with our lives. If you had to

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<v Speaker 1>pick a date where we would have the right balance

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<v Speaker 1>between supply and demand, when might that be? Well, the

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<v Speaker 1>interesting thing is we don't know what we don't know.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if you would have asked us that in January,

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<v Speaker 1>we would have a completely different answer than what we

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<v Speaker 1>might have just a few months later. So all we

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<v Speaker 1>can do is take it day by day. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think we're closer than most people realize. If you look

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<v Speaker 1>at UM the big picture numbers roughly about a hundred

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<v Speaker 1>um hunter million barrels a date in both production and consumption.

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<v Speaker 1>We seem to be balancing out there. That's exactly where

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<v Speaker 1>we were when prices were kind of stabilized in between

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<v Speaker 1>about two thousand eighteen and two thousand nineteen. Prices were

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<v Speaker 1>pretty stable around the sixty dollar range, and we had

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<v Speaker 1>a very similar type of global production and supply figures.

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<v Speaker 1>Now I know there's prospects and speculation that China is

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<v Speaker 1>going to come back online and all of these things

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<v Speaker 1>are going to be uh brought out a balance again.

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<v Speaker 1>But the reality is, again we don't know what we

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<v Speaker 1>don't know, so we just could take it day by

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<v Speaker 1>day and see how things go. Okay, I'll put you

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<v Speaker 1>on this spot July one next year. Where do you

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<v Speaker 1>see w A T I crude, Well, I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna be closer to six than we are a hundred.

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<v Speaker 1>Hopefully that helps. I I believe that. Do you think

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<v Speaker 1>do you think recession is coming? Um? I think that

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<v Speaker 1>we're in recession, and I think that the reality is

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<v Speaker 1>in commodities, high price is always cure high prices, and

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think we've completed the downside cycle yet. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a good point, Okay, Carl, Thank you very much for

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<v Speaker 1>being with us. Carly Garner, senior commodity strategist and broker

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<v Speaker 1>at De Carli Trading