WEBVTT - Mark Carney Has Learned From Donald Trump 0:00:02.880 --> 0:00:07.360 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:11.520 We are in a crisis. We're in an economic crisis. 0:00:11.600 --> 0:00:14.360 Is fundamental shift in the world. It's not a transition, 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:17.119 it's a rupture. It's big changes in a very short 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.880 period of time. And I know from all my experience 0:00:20.160 --> 0:00:23.279 that in those situations you have to act big, you 0:00:23.360 --> 0:00:24.079 have to act ball. 0:00:26.040 --> 0:00:31.800 Mark Carney, former Central banker, climate champion and now Canada's 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:32.839 Prime Minister. 0:00:33.600 --> 0:00:36.240 We can give ourselves far more than the United States 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:39.479 can take away. So we have agency, we can have 0:00:39.520 --> 0:00:42.319 one Canadian economy. We've taken major moves towards that one 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:43.080 Canadian economy. 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:43.760 It takes time. 0:00:44.000 --> 0:00:46.280 It takes time. It takes time, but it's worth it 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:49.040 because we never want to be in this position again. 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:55.440 From Bluemberg Weekend. This is the Michelle Hussain Show. I'm 0:00:55.480 --> 0:01:03.600 Michelle Hussain. Hello and welcome. Thank you for being here, 0:01:03.680 --> 0:01:06.520 Thank you for being part of this new adventure. This 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:09.040 is going to be a place where every weekend you'll 0:01:09.080 --> 0:01:13.320 hear one essential conversation. But I hope that it's also 0:01:13.360 --> 0:01:15.600 going to be a place with head, heart and soul, 0:01:16.240 --> 0:01:20.479 where in the midst of a disrupted even a chaotic world. 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:24.400 You'll find something to take away that's of value. That's 0:01:24.440 --> 0:01:27.320 what I'm aiming to do week after week, and I'm 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:29.880 thrilled that you're part of it. I hope that you'll 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:34.000 keep coming back as we explore ideas and current affairs 0:01:34.200 --> 0:01:38.200 and history with people who are shaping the world or 0:01:38.240 --> 0:01:41.480 who can help us understand it. And my first guest 0:01:41.760 --> 0:01:45.120 is Mark Carney, someone who's leading a country in the 0:01:45.120 --> 0:01:50.720 crosshairs of trade and other turbulence. Canada's super interesting because 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:53.280 it's at the forefront of so many of the different 0:01:53.360 --> 0:01:56.320 currents in the world right now. It's in President Trump 0:01:56.440 --> 0:01:59.120 cites it's a country that he still believes should be 0:01:59.160 --> 0:02:03.560 the fifty first date. It's highly connected economically to its 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:06.360 big southern neighbor, the two of them share the world's 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:10.520 longest border, but tariffs and threats since the start of 0:02:10.560 --> 0:02:13.440 the year mean that it's in the midst of trying 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:17.400 to make itself more self sufficient. That's the reality that 0:02:17.440 --> 0:02:20.600 Mark Carney stepped into seven months ago when he became 0:02:20.639 --> 0:02:24.480 Prime Minister. He was entirely new to politics, though in 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:27.600 many ways he has been an insider, and we'll get 0:02:27.639 --> 0:02:30.200 to some of that in this conversation. We spoke over 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:33.120 a weekend in London because he was here ahead of 0:02:33.160 --> 0:02:36.280 Canada's women playing England in the Rugby World Cup final. 0:02:36.400 --> 0:02:39.680 Unfortunately for Canada, they lost, as it happens. When he 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.440 came to our studios, he was on the doorstep of 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:44.400 the place he used to run, the Bank of England, 0:02:44.720 --> 0:02:47.280 and he's not unfamiliar with Bloomberg either, because he used 0:02:47.320 --> 0:02:51.280 to be on the board here. We talked about the 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:54.959 big issues of course Donald Trump, and about big foreign 0:02:55.000 --> 0:02:59.320 policy moves, but this is a personal conversation too, and 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:02.040 I asked him for to take me right back to 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:05.400 his early years, the story of his parents and the 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:09.760 place where he was born, Fort Smith, in Canada's Northwest Territories. 0:03:11.240 --> 0:03:14.520 They went up to the North I was technically all 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:16.680 the way to the Arctic, but close enough. They went 0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:19.680 up to the north as an adventure, pioneering. There were 0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:23.000 young teachers and going to what seemed as the frontier. 0:03:23.080 --> 0:03:25.720 Of course there were people there already, so there was 0:03:25.720 --> 0:03:29.280 that element strong sense in my family of public service. 0:03:29.600 --> 0:03:32.280 My dad was a civil servant. As I say, my 0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:36.760 parents are educators, a sense of that is the higher calling. 0:03:37.000 --> 0:03:39.760 So I've always had that element. Even though I've had 0:03:39.800 --> 0:03:42.680 a private sector career, I was fortunate to be the 0:03:42.680 --> 0:03:45.760 central bank governor in two G seven countries, and at 0:03:45.760 --> 0:03:49.760 a time when because there were major financial problems, including 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:52.680 here in the City of London, that that job was 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:56.000 broader than usual, major financial reforms going on having to 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:59.320 be negotiated around the world. So I've in that regard, 0:03:59.360 --> 0:04:04.280 I've been thinking about what next in public service. Yes, candidly, 0:04:04.880 --> 0:04:09.160 the prospect of becoming an elected politician in Canada, let 0:04:09.200 --> 0:04:14.000 alone prime minister I felt like was receding, And then 0:04:14.360 --> 0:04:16.680 over the course of the year and the run up 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:19.800 to when I stood for election, I became more and 0:04:19.839 --> 0:04:22.800 more concerned, as some others did, about the potential direction 0:04:22.880 --> 0:04:25.880 of our country, and felt that given my background, I 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:27.240 would have a chance to help change it. 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:29.480 What do you miss about your old life? I imagine 0:04:29.520 --> 0:04:32.359 your family probably miss your old life. 0:04:32.480 --> 0:04:35.560 Ah, yes, I'm sure they do. I miss What do 0:04:35.600 --> 0:04:38.479 I miss about? I miss having any privacy? 0:04:38.800 --> 0:04:44.039 Basically, I was thinking about something you said in twenty 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.880 twenty about how it is easier to be a central 0:04:46.920 --> 0:04:50.679 banker in a democracy than a politician. But it feels 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:52.520 like that's not even the half of it right. You 0:04:52.600 --> 0:04:55.640 have become Prime Minister at a time when global trade 0:04:55.680 --> 0:04:58.880 is disrupted as never before, Global alliances are under pressure 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:00.800 as never before. How has it been. 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:05.640 I stand by my earlier statement it is easier to 0:05:05.640 --> 0:05:08.159 be a central banker. Part of the reason I am 0:05:08.200 --> 0:05:10.919 in this position is because of what you just described. 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:12.920 It's part of the reason why I put myself for it. 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:15.800 It's possibly one of the reasons why I was elected. 0:05:16.279 --> 0:05:19.400 In some respects, I'm going to say an odd thing. 0:05:19.600 --> 0:05:23.880 In some respects, it's easier when the problems are very 0:05:24.000 --> 0:05:28.040 clearly out in front of everybody. I think all Canadians 0:05:28.120 --> 0:05:32.280 understand that our relationship with the United States has changed fundamentally, 0:05:32.800 --> 0:05:36.279 that the world is a more dangerous and divided place. 0:05:36.800 --> 0:05:38.880 And then the question becomes what do we do about it? 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:43.880 And sometimes just on reflection, if you look back when 0:05:43.960 --> 0:05:47.960 times were good quote unquote, but problems we're building up, 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.520 that's when it's more difficult to take the big decisions 0:05:50.560 --> 0:05:53.720 that are necessary. You know theol here, you know that 0:05:53.760 --> 0:05:57.320 we have to act. It's important to be as open 0:05:57.400 --> 0:06:01.000 and as possible with people terms of the assessment of 0:06:01.040 --> 0:06:03.240 the scale of what needs to be done. And then 0:06:03.279 --> 0:06:04.039 to be decisive. 0:06:04.120 --> 0:06:06.120 Did you get elected because of President Trump? 0:06:06.200 --> 0:06:09.359 Really I got election? Well, you'd have to ask the 0:06:09.440 --> 0:06:10.120 voters account. 0:06:10.160 --> 0:06:13.760 I think, well, you stood because of President Trump. You 0:06:13.800 --> 0:06:16.719 made the choice just before you announced it, just stood. 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:19.640 I did not stand because of President Trump. No, I 0:06:19.760 --> 0:06:23.520 stood because I believe that the person who was likely 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:26.080 to become Prime minister, certainly in all the polling, was 0:06:26.080 --> 0:06:28.320 not the right person for Canada. That would have been 0:06:28.400 --> 0:06:32.240 a divisive government in that case, and would have taken 0:06:32.279 --> 0:06:36.159 our country back as opposed to Ford. It turned out 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:38.240 to be the case that very quickly, once I was 0:06:38.279 --> 0:06:40.720 in the leadership campaign, before I became leader of the 0:06:40.760 --> 0:06:44.279 Liberal Party, and then before the general election campaign, it 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.240 turned out that President Trump's actions in the trade war 0:06:47.720 --> 0:06:52.040 as it's known, really intensified, and then I became more relevant. 0:06:52.080 --> 0:06:55.400 So certainly, yes, it helped that people made a judgment 0:06:55.440 --> 0:06:57.040 that I was best place to deal with it. 0:06:57.360 --> 0:06:59.280 So you went into it with your eyes open. But 0:06:59.320 --> 0:07:03.120 what is you in these six to seven months. 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:06.280 What has surprised me the most A couple of things. 0:07:06.320 --> 0:07:11.000 One is how relentless it is. So I took a 0:07:11.040 --> 0:07:14.720 decision in early January to stand for the leadership and 0:07:14.840 --> 0:07:18.960 from that point on it has been NonStop, as close 0:07:19.000 --> 0:07:22.440 to twenty four to seven as possible. I conceptually knew 0:07:22.480 --> 0:07:25.920 that I'd had high pressure jobs before, but it's that 0:07:26.080 --> 0:07:29.080 much more so. So that's the first thing I think 0:07:29.160 --> 0:07:34.000 that the importance and the fluidity of international relations. I 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:36.960 knew international relations are important, but the fluidity of those 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:41.360 relations and the importance of those relationships, those personal relationships 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:44.560 with world leaders, some of which I had in advance, 0:07:44.600 --> 0:07:47.880 but others I've had to develop. That has surprised me 0:07:48.040 --> 0:07:49.920 the degree to which that is important. 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:56.240 I do want to explore how much harder your task 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:59.560 is as Prime Minister in some of your domestic priorities 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:03.480 uncertain your foreign policy priorities because the United States is 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:05.920 not the partner that it has been before, and because 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:11.120 its priorities have shifted. Of course, you've got specific bilateral 0:08:11.200 --> 0:08:14.280 issues with the United States, primarily over trade, and the 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:17.520 Canadian economy has been hit hard by what President has drawn, 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:22.680 particularly on steel and the auto sector and aluminium. What 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:27.400 is your strategy for when the US Mexico Canada trade 0:08:27.440 --> 0:08:30.640 deal is reviewed next summer. Are you hoping the US 0:08:30.680 --> 0:08:33.160 economy by that stage is in a position where President 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:34.880 Trump takes a different view on tariffs. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:37.040 We want the best for the US economy, just as 0:08:37.040 --> 0:08:39.480 we want well slightly stronger, we want the best for 0:08:39.520 --> 0:08:42.040 the Canadian economy. So no, our strategy is not to 0:08:42.160 --> 0:08:45.040 expect some weakness in the US economy that is going 0:08:45.080 --> 0:08:48.640 to change US negotiating position. Part of our strategy has 0:08:48.679 --> 0:08:52.120 been to pursue the best deal for Canada. We have 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:54.839 the best trade deal at the moment. Eighty five percent 0:08:54.840 --> 0:08:56.840 of our trade with the United States is teriff free. 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:59.720 We have the lowest average tariff against of any country 0:08:59.720 --> 0:09:02.360 with the it's five and a half percent. So we're 0:09:02.400 --> 0:09:06.120 in a good position now with two important caveats. One 0:09:06.200 --> 0:09:09.040 is your question what's going to happen with the renegotiation 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.760 of what they call USMCA. And secondly, some key sectors 0:09:12.800 --> 0:09:18.240 steel autos, aluminium, force products being the main ones, will 0:09:18.240 --> 0:09:23.080 make it increasingly clear that in certain sectors, particularly the 0:09:23.080 --> 0:09:26.760 integration of the Canadian and US and Mexican economies is 0:09:26.920 --> 0:09:32.079 essential to US competitiveness. So in steel in autos, as 0:09:32.120 --> 0:09:37.240 two example, the linkages are so tight. They're so tight 0:09:37.480 --> 0:09:41.880 such that the US content in Canadian finished automobiles is 0:09:41.960 --> 0:09:45.640 higher than the average US content in American automobiles. So 0:09:46.080 --> 0:09:49.840 we make America stronger in these sectors, and our strategy 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:53.280 is to make sure that that is as well understood 0:09:53.360 --> 0:09:54.240 as possible. 0:09:54.280 --> 0:09:57.840 Okay, so the prosperity of both countries is at stake. 0:09:58.400 --> 0:10:01.920 Your language, though, has ch changed on President Trump since 0:10:01.960 --> 0:10:04.200 you came to office. Do you remember when you talked 0:10:04.240 --> 0:10:07.480 about him as a bully that needed to be stood 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:09.920 up to in February when you were campaigning, We're going 0:10:09.960 --> 0:10:11.480 to stand up to a bully. We're not going to 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:16.120 back down. And yet now you're much more likely to 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:19.920 talk in more conciliatory terms. I mean, obviously one is 0:10:19.960 --> 0:10:23.320 campaigning and one is governing. But perhaps people who wanted 0:10:23.320 --> 0:10:25.240 you to do the standing up to the bully might 0:10:25.280 --> 0:10:27.680 feel that you haven't done that as much as you 0:10:27.720 --> 0:10:29.079 suggested when you were campaigning. 0:10:29.200 --> 0:10:33.960 Well, let's be clear of the actual situation. We're one 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:37.640 of two countries effectively that put retaliatory tariffs on the 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:42.480 United States. Two countries in the world. We put them on, 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:44.679 we kept them on. We kept them on up to 0:10:44.720 --> 0:10:48.600 a point where they ceased to be effective. We got 0:10:48.640 --> 0:10:51.920 to a point when we took our retaliatory tariffs off. 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:55.440 We had eighty five percent of our trade teriff free 0:10:55.840 --> 0:10:59.160 when we put them on. Given the steps that President 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.199 Trump had taken, it was less than it was a 0:11:01.240 --> 0:11:04.040 third of our trade was terror free. So you know, 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:06.400 strikes me that that's that's pretty effective. 0:11:06.480 --> 0:11:08.640 Number one shown his power? Hasn't he over you? Like, 0:11:08.679 --> 0:11:11.199 for example, your digital services tax? You announced it, he 0:11:11.400 --> 0:11:12.000 hated it. 0:11:12.160 --> 0:11:14.839 You had to back down on the digital service tax 0:11:15.000 --> 0:11:18.360 was announced multiple years before it was coming into effect. 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:22.400 Look the United States, and it couldn't We made a 0:11:22.440 --> 0:11:26.439 decision in the context. And let's let's what happened after 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:30.280 we took that digital service tax off. Within weeks, the 0:11:30.320 --> 0:11:35.640 President confirmed in writing, formally confirmed in an executive order 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:37.160 that terror free status for. 0:11:37.160 --> 0:11:39.480 The vast So there was something broader at stake, something 0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.240 very much. I get that, But I just wonder how 0:11:42.920 --> 0:11:45.920 how you reconcile yourself to that, because it is different 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:47.000 from the tone you struggle. 0:11:47.360 --> 0:11:50.560 Well, I recon my my responsibility to get the best 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:55.000 possible deal for Canada. We have the best deal in 0:11:55.040 --> 0:12:00.600 the world at this point. Now that next issue is 0:12:00.840 --> 0:12:03.960 where is the USMCA negotiation going to. 0:12:04.000 --> 0:12:04.800 Land trade agreement? 0:12:04.880 --> 0:12:07.240 Yeah, the trade agreement, broader trade agreement going to land, 0:12:07.280 --> 0:12:09.200 and that's being prepared for that and working with the 0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:11.800 US and that. But let's let's be absolutely clear. The 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:16.360 United States does have tremendous leverage in the near term 0:12:16.640 --> 0:12:20.880 over Canada, over the European Union, over the United Kingdom 0:12:21.200 --> 0:12:25.840 because our economies became linked on the basis of certain assumptions. 0:12:26.120 --> 0:12:29.280 Those assumptions have now changed, and so part of this 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:34.400 is stabilizing that relationship. It's the US right to have 0:12:34.480 --> 0:12:38.160 different priorities. We respect that they've made that choice. We 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:42.640 look to stabilize the trading relationship. Okay, what are the 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.199 new terms under the new objectives of the United States 0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:47.839 that are in the best interests of Canada. And then 0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.480 the big thing that we do, and a big part 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.880 of I think why I was elected was what else 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:55.559 are we going to do? And one of the core 0:12:55.679 --> 0:12:59.280 points that we've made from the start is that we 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:01.760 can give our else far more than the United States 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:05.600 can take away. So we have agency, we can have 0:13:05.640 --> 0:13:08.439 one Canadian economy. We've taken major moves towards that one 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:09.199 Canadian economy. 0:13:09.240 --> 0:13:09.920 It takes time. 0:13:10.160 --> 0:13:12.400 It takes time. It takes time, but it's worth it 0:13:12.480 --> 0:13:15.120 because we never want to be in this position again. 0:13:15.559 --> 0:13:17.840 We never want to be in this position again. And 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:20.959 so that's building at home and it's diversifying abroad. We're 0:13:21.000 --> 0:13:22.920 having this interview in London. Part of the reason I'm 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.400 in London is deepening our trade relationship. 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:27.920 You need a new mark, Yeah, because seventy five percent 0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:30.719 of your trade is with the United States and that 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:32.240 now has problems. 0:13:32.600 --> 0:13:33.439 That's change. 0:13:33.480 --> 0:13:35.920 Okay. Have you learned anything from President Trump? 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.320 Have learned? I've learned lots of things from President Trump. 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:42.160 You always learned things from people. I've learned that the 0:13:42.280 --> 0:13:44.760 value I don't fully subscribe to this, but I see 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:48.600 the effectiveness. The value of the term they would use 0:13:48.720 --> 0:13:51.800 is flooding the zone of doing multiple things at the 0:13:51.840 --> 0:13:55.480 same time, and the effectiveness that can have. I think 0:13:55.559 --> 0:14:00.160 that he has a very effective way in his own 0:14:00.200 --> 0:14:05.600 almost unique manner of framing issues and of dominating the agenda. 0:14:05.760 --> 0:14:07.280 If I can put that away as well. 0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:10.120 I even wondered about the way that you, you know, 0:14:10.120 --> 0:14:12.319 when you cancel the carbon tax, you signed it on 0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:15.360 camera with a flourish. It was like executive order style. 0:14:15.400 --> 0:14:18.200 Have you learned an element of performance, like you have 0:14:18.280 --> 0:14:20.240 to be seen to be doing the job. In a 0:14:20.240 --> 0:14:23.600 certain way because it didn't feel very Canadian to do that. 0:14:23.880 --> 0:14:25.720 The signing on camera with the flourish. 0:14:25.640 --> 0:14:28.400 It's interesting. I wouldn't have ascribed it to him per se. 0:14:28.680 --> 0:14:32.280 I just think that in a time when there is 0:14:32.320 --> 0:14:34.760 a lot of pressure, people are under a lot of pressure, 0:14:34.800 --> 0:14:38.160 there's a lot of uncertainty, the value have been very clear. 0:14:38.280 --> 0:14:41.120 So I'll take the example you used. That was the 0:14:41.160 --> 0:14:44.160 first day that I became Prime Minister. The first thing 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:47.840 we did was to cancel that carbon tax. The next 0:14:47.880 --> 0:14:51.240 thing I did was to come to Europe, come to 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:54.480 the UK and to the Canadian Arctic, the three founding 0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:58.320 peoples of Canada, the French, the British and the Indigenous Canadians, 0:14:59.000 --> 0:15:05.120 and to underscore our sovereignty, our history, but also to 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:09.240 set up trade agreements with the first two and a 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:13.080 major intention to invest inter Arctic and defense and security. 0:15:13.320 --> 0:15:17.080 And so both of those things had substance. We cancel 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:20.040 the carbon tax. Those trips had substance because they were 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.480 setting up trade agreements and security, but they also had 0:15:23.720 --> 0:15:30.760 yes symbolism history, sovereignty, action, and when you're in a crisis, 0:15:30.800 --> 0:15:34.680 particularly this case a trade crisis and economic crisis, a 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:38.000 crisis of sovereignty, given some of the points that President 0:15:38.000 --> 0:15:40.680 Trump saying about the fifty first state. When you're in 0:15:40.720 --> 0:15:44.320 a crisis, you need to not just act decisively, but 0:15:44.400 --> 0:16:02.000 be seen to act decisively, and that's what we were doing. 0:16:04.080 --> 0:16:07.440 You have a big Ukrainian Canadian community, so Ukraine is 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:09.200 important to the country as a whole as well as 0:16:09.240 --> 0:16:13.200 I'm sure to you personally. President Trump is now talking 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.320 about Ukraine winning, but when he does so, he emphasizes 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:18.080 that Ukraine he thinks is going to do that with 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:22.280 Europe's help. To what extent can Ukraine win without the 0:16:22.400 --> 0:16:25.880 US being fully front and center and offering the security 0:16:25.920 --> 0:16:27.040 backstops for the future. 0:16:27.960 --> 0:16:30.680 Okay, So there's a lot in that question, and I 0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:35.920 think it's important to distinguish the components. Ukraine with Europe's help, 0:16:36.000 --> 0:16:38.680 with Canada's help in Canada is the largest per capita 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:43.360 contributor to Ukraine in dollar terms. We're contributing militarily on 0:16:43.360 --> 0:16:46.520 a humanitarian basis as well. And we've been there from 0:16:46.520 --> 0:16:49.120 the start, and the start was twenty fourteen. The start 0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.320 was not three years ago. The start was twenty fourteen, 0:16:51.360 --> 0:16:56.200 with the illegal invasion annexation of krimea attempted annexation. I 0:16:56.240 --> 0:17:02.840 guess the US is essential for a few things with 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:07.000 respect to Ukraine. It is essential for certain military equipment. 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:11.360 The provision of that military equipment we are happy too, 0:17:11.440 --> 0:17:14.320 where we understand the need to buy that equipment on 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.360 behalf of Ukraine, or to help Ukraine finance that equipment 0:17:17.600 --> 0:17:20.040 in many cases, so it doesn't have to be directly 0:17:20.040 --> 0:17:22.399 supplied by the United States. Obviously would be easier if 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:25.240 the US we're doing more direct provision, but that's not 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:30.480 an insuperabowl issue. What is essential is this other part 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:34.480 of your question is when there is an end of hostility, 0:17:34.600 --> 0:17:39.160 some form of ceasefire, piece frozen conflict, however it ends 0:17:39.240 --> 0:17:41.840 up being, the first line of defense will be the 0:17:41.960 --> 0:17:46.200 Ukrainian Army, reinforced the Coalition of the Willing, of which 0:17:46.240 --> 0:17:49.000 Canada is a member of the UK. Others France will 0:17:49.080 --> 0:17:54.360 provide important security guarantees. But the ultimate backstop does need 0:17:54.400 --> 0:17:56.560 to have some form of backstop in our judgment and 0:17:56.680 --> 0:17:58.600 judgment of many others of the United States. 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.840 So the United States, which is which there's been no commitment, 0:18:02.560 --> 0:18:05.080 which is why I asked you there. 0:18:04.960 --> 0:18:10.000 Has been Well, there's winning there's there's winning. We can 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:13.840 debate how that's defined, but winning militarily on the battlefield, 0:18:14.400 --> 0:18:18.120 getting to a position where there is a piece accord, 0:18:18.160 --> 0:18:21.480 a cease fire or frozen conflict some understanding. They can 0:18:21.520 --> 0:18:25.720 get to that position with the support of Europe, the 0:18:25.760 --> 0:18:28.280 support of Canada, the support of Australia, supportive of a 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:32.520 few others, and with the US more in a secondary role. 0:18:33.400 --> 0:18:37.960 Having a durable peace, durable end of hostility will require us. 0:18:38.320 --> 0:18:42.000 It will require the form that that could take is 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:46.280 under active discussion at the military level, at the national 0:18:46.320 --> 0:18:49.240 security level. We are part of those discussions. It is 0:18:49.400 --> 0:18:54.159 right that nothing has been concretely agreed and spelled out, 0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:57.760 but I would say the level of engagement is encouraging. 0:18:57.520 --> 0:18:59.679 With the US. With the US so you're hoping you 0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:02.280 get The problem is that right now it does seem 0:19:02.280 --> 0:19:06.560 that Russia is emboldened drones in NATO airspace, jets in 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:09.280 NATO airspace, as happened over Estonia. 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:14.280 Would I would refer Russia's under pressure. Russia's under pressure. 0:19:14.840 --> 0:19:18.280 They're trying what they can to shift, but they're under 0:19:18.320 --> 0:19:23.720 economic pressure, their military situation. They were making some progress 0:19:24.040 --> 0:19:26.480 over the course of the summer, that progress has stopped, 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:28.399 some of it's begun to being reversed. 0:19:28.440 --> 0:19:30.800 It's unnerving for a country like Estonia to have Russian 0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:31.800 jets in its airspace. 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:36.359 It's under Canada has frontline troops in Latvia, all right, but. 0:19:36.280 --> 0:19:39.240 Here's a very concrete thing. If that happens again, do 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:42.240 you support the idea of a NATO country shooting down 0:19:42.240 --> 0:19:43.080 that Russian jet? 0:19:43.560 --> 0:19:46.440 All options, all options are on the table, without question. 0:19:47.080 --> 0:19:52.679 There are ongoing consultations within NATO. NATO countries defend themselves 0:19:52.920 --> 0:19:56.480 and certainly will we will do what's necessary in order 0:19:56.480 --> 0:19:57.879 to protect contry. 0:19:57.880 --> 0:20:01.480 Are you warning Russia that it is possible that a 0:20:01.560 --> 0:20:04.320 NATO country would strike out as was their playing if. 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:07.040 I made so that, For example, the Polish government has 0:20:07.080 --> 0:20:08.720 made was warnings directly in public. 0:20:08.840 --> 0:20:10.680 There is a precedent because Turkey did it to a 0:20:10.720 --> 0:20:12.200 Russian plane ten years ago. 0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:12.800 Yeah. 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.000 Is that the kind of message that you think it 0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:18.800 might take at a moment like this to show Russia 0:20:18.800 --> 0:20:22.680 that NATO is serious because President Trump isn't really showing Russia, 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:24.880 but America is serious about Ukraine. 0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:30.560 I think President Trump has been very important in this process. 0:20:31.040 --> 0:20:34.639 He has given piece a chance so to speak, with Russia. 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:39.320 He has been at lines of communication with Vladimir Putin, 0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:43.120 with his Special envoy Steve Wikoff. There's been direct conversations. 0:20:43.160 --> 0:20:46.959 There's been opportunities for Putin to take off ramps. Putin 0:20:47.000 --> 0:20:50.040 has not taken any of those off ramps. The President 0:20:50.040 --> 0:20:54.359 speaks for himself, but I think his patience is being exhausted. 0:20:54.920 --> 0:21:00.400 His line is hardening, The likelihood of further economics sayings 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:04.720 against Russia is increasing, and the severity of those next 0:21:04.720 --> 0:21:08.360 phase of sanctions could be a different order of magnitude 0:21:09.040 --> 0:21:13.160 than previous rounds of sanctions. All of that is pointing 0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:16.360 in one direction. And I would underscore Russia has been 0:21:16.400 --> 0:21:19.960 moving at literally a snails pace in terms of temporary 0:21:19.960 --> 0:21:22.159 acquisition of territory in Ukraine over the course of the 0:21:22.200 --> 0:21:25.360 last three years. And they're not going to win. They're 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:27.560 not going to win this war, and it's a question 0:21:27.600 --> 0:21:30.959 of their realizing that. And I personally think that the 0:21:31.000 --> 0:21:33.480 actions of Vladimir Putin over the course of the last 0:21:33.480 --> 0:21:37.840 few months spurning the opportunity that President Trump has given 0:21:37.880 --> 0:21:42.480 him on multiple occasions, these drown incursions, if they are intentional, 0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:44.639 as they increasingly look to be that. 0:21:44.560 --> 0:21:47.359 Is making the calculation that America doesn't There are no 0:21:47.440 --> 0:21:48.720 consequences for spurning. 0:21:48.800 --> 0:21:52.199 President Putin has done nothing but miscalculating this war. He 0:21:52.240 --> 0:21:55.719 made the calculation that NATO would become divided. NATO is 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.880 as solidified. You just have to look to the June commitments. 0:21:58.920 --> 0:22:00.639 You have to look how we're acting. He made the 0:22:00.640 --> 0:22:03.800 calculation that Ukraine would capitulate in a matter of days. 0:22:03.920 --> 0:22:06.720 He made the calculation that President Zelenski would flee. He 0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:09.359 made the calculation that would been uprising in favor. He 0:22:09.480 --> 0:22:14.320 is miscalculated consistently in this conflict. 0:22:14.920 --> 0:22:17.240 Another one of your foreign policy priorities has been the 0:22:17.240 --> 0:22:21.760 recognition of a Palestinian state on which the US fundamentally disagrees. 0:22:22.240 --> 0:22:25.280 What what is your next step on that issue? 0:22:25.520 --> 0:22:29.840