Speaker 1: Welcome the Trillions. I'm Joel Weber and I'm Eric belchernas Eric.
Speaker 1: In addition to having a day job for Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 1: and co hosting Trillions with me, you also have another
Speaker 1: side of your career, which I hope comes up in
Speaker 1: all your reviews, which is the TV show on Bloomberg
Speaker 1: TV called ETFIQ. Yeah. I began about the same time
Speaker 1: as Trillions. Actually I think it did. There was a
Speaker 1: first iteration like pre COVID with Scarlett fu who we
Speaker 1: did a show with her, I think maybe a year
Speaker 1: and a half in and then it shut down. It
Speaker 1: went dark for like a year and a half. They
Speaker 1: shut all the half an hour shows down that were specialty.
Speaker 1: They slowly started them back up after we came back
Speaker 1: to the office, and so when they were looking to
Speaker 1: redo it, there was some shifts in personnel, and so
Speaker 1: they made a new iteration of etf i Q with
Speaker 1: Matt Miller, Katie Greyfield and myself, and I'm Matt and
Speaker 1: Katier are sort of like the main anchors. I'm sort
Speaker 1: of like the weatherman or the commentary guy. I do
Speaker 1: some special work at the beginning of a couple of
Speaker 1: segments and sort of provide. I ask a few questions,
Speaker 1: but I see myself more like a specialist and they're
Speaker 1: sort of more generalist. And I think it's a goocambo.
Speaker 1: And the show's every Monday at one pm. It's a
Speaker 1: half an hour by Fast Live. Yeah. Live TV is interesting.
Speaker 1: I mean, unlike this, where I can mess up and
Speaker 1: we can edit out. You have to just roll through
Speaker 1: and keep talking. Special shout out to Magnus Hendrickson, who's
Speaker 1: our producer and has been our producer of Trillions for
Speaker 1: a while. We kept them busy with this episode because
Speaker 1: there's a fair amount of better thing. Thanks Magnus, and
Speaker 1: I just want to speak in the shout outs. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the three of us are on the air, we bring
Speaker 1: on guests, but behind the scenes, the other people who
Speaker 1: are you know, spend a lot of their time working
Speaker 1: on the show to Mareaci Ratika Gupta, Maureen Lawler, Kieran
Speaker 1: Buchanan and Alex Soto. And then sometimes we'll have if
Speaker 1: some one of us is out, like a h Basket
Speaker 1: will fill in or Kaylee lines. So it's a show
Speaker 1: where a lot of people work on it every week,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure they do many other things. This is
Speaker 1: just one part of their job. There's only half an
Speaker 1: hour show, but we do our best to put in
Speaker 1: you know, good guests, good topics, and also a little
Speaker 1: bit of improvisation. We don't over prepare. I think in
Speaker 1: the first Iteration show, I found myself really over preparing.
Speaker 1: I wrote the whole script out. I think we did
Speaker 1: that this podcast. We would overscript at the beginning. Now
Speaker 1: I've learned to trust my instincts and a little have
Speaker 1: more improv and let it feel a little more organic.
Speaker 1: And I think we've we've done a good job at that.
Speaker 1: I think, Okay, so what are we gonna hear today
Speaker 1: on Trillions? So we're gonna bring on Matt Miller and
Speaker 1: Katie And I've basically teed up about six clips that
Speaker 1: I think sort of represent some topics and guests about
Speaker 1: the show and also some of the quirks of Katie
Speaker 1: and Matt that I think come across. And you know,
Speaker 1: we're just sort of like some of the highlights basically
Speaker 1: from the first year. Some big names in here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, we get some big names, and then I
Speaker 1: also think we get names that are big names later,
Speaker 1: Like I remember we had Kathy Wood before the run
Speaker 1: of all of Kathy Woods ETFs. Yeah, totally. I mean
Speaker 1: I used to when we first had et F i
Speaker 1: Q I would try to promote it internally. Is that
Speaker 1: this show's really not just about ETFs. It's tomorrow's stars today,
Speaker 1: sort of like MTV's one hundred niney minutes or hundred
Speaker 1: twenty minutes where you'd go and watch Sunday Night, like
Speaker 1: you know, eleven PM, and you'd see like you'd see
Speaker 1: like Nirvana before they went mainstream. I feel as though
Speaker 1: we're we're getting were early because a lot of ETF
Speaker 1: fishers who put out ETFs get some assets. That's where
Speaker 1: the money's going. And these people are going to be
Speaker 1: the stars of tomorrow in a lot of cases. But
Speaker 1: we still will always sometimes get a current star. But
Speaker 1: Kathy's case, I think she's a star who was on
Speaker 1: the ETF show early. Perth Tolls another one. There are
Speaker 1: definitely some people we get early and they become they
Speaker 1: branch out then then you see them all over Bloomberg
Speaker 1: TV and all the shows. Okay, joining us on this episode,
Speaker 1: we've got Matt Miller of Bloomberg TV, along with Katie Greifield,
Speaker 1: who's a regular on Trillions and a reporter with Bloomberg News,
Speaker 1: this time on trillions. Highlights of Year one from ETF
Speaker 1: Katy Matt, welcome back to trains. Thank you, thrilled of
Speaker 1: you here. It's my first time. Actually, oh I have
Speaker 1: been here many times. You lucky, long overdue. I've been
Speaker 1: a long time listener, so thank you for great you
Speaker 1: as a first time caller, Eric, How do you want
Speaker 1: to do this? I pulled five or six clips that
Speaker 1: I think we're kind of highlights of the year, might
Speaker 1: get Katie and Matt talking, So we can start with
Speaker 1: the first one if you want. Okay, here we go.
Speaker 1: So the first clip is from the very first guest
Speaker 1: on the very first show. Can you guys remember who
Speaker 1: that was? Holly Farm said yes, So here here she
Speaker 1: is talking about active ets, which has become a huge
Speaker 1: issue for us. In a theme in the show where
Speaker 1: we look at our core investor base, there are trillions
Speaker 1: of dollars of assets still in actively managed solutions that
Speaker 1: haven't moved to index. So I think what that tells
Speaker 1: me is there's a clear space for active in ETFs
Speaker 1: at the core and that is squarely where we think
Speaker 1: our investors and our clients will use our products. She
Speaker 1: was not wrong, right. I'd say, if there's one ETF
Speaker 1: that we've talked about the most other than Spy all
Speaker 1: year long, it's ben jepy. Am I wrong about that
Speaker 1: Jetpy definitely because it took in so much money. Since
Speaker 1: it's like the new arc in terms of flows, Can
Speaker 1: I just toot our own horns for a little bit.
Speaker 1: The fact that we had Capital group on like immediately
Speaker 1: after they launched their first ETFs, and the fact that
Speaker 1: we were focused on active I mean, to Matt's point,
Speaker 1: we've been talking about it for a year straight, and
Speaker 1: I mean, Holly really put it very well that you
Speaker 1: have trillions of dollars in active funds that haven't made
Speaker 1: their way to ETFs yet, and that's exactly what we've
Speaker 1: seen over the past year. It was prescient for sure.
Speaker 1: I thought active now takes in like thirty forty percent
Speaker 1: of the flows and they make up four percent of
Speaker 1: the assets. Huge for now. Yeah, I was gonna say,
Speaker 1: does that continue? Do you think that continues? Yeah, because
Speaker 1: there's still so many trillions and active mutual funds. A
Speaker 1: lot of it's just the migration over, it's not new money.
Speaker 1: That's a little bit of the behind the scenes. It's
Speaker 1: not like somebody's waking up. Oh give me active. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of it's people who were in active
Speaker 1: mutual funds, like the ETF rapper better you know the
Speaker 1: other thing. I just want to say, we're gonna have
Speaker 1: a little This can be a little bit of a
Speaker 1: rivalry here. We've got two sides of Eric here, the
Speaker 1: et more. Yeah, to be fair, our show, to be fair,
Speaker 1: our show is shorter and we are shallower. Yeah. Straight,
Speaker 1: We don't get extremely shallow people. But there's something about
Speaker 1: live TV that just gets the blood flow. And there's
Speaker 1: something special about you love adrenaline. Yeah, you love live television.
Speaker 1: But you can't you definitely can't go as deep. Yeah here,
Speaker 1: you can also make mistakes here and like just edit
Speaker 1: it out like you just basically have to move on
Speaker 1: on TV, like employee Magnus as our producer. Okay, Clip two, Okay,
Speaker 1: clip two is this is Matt This is this first
Speaker 1: C block guest where we drilled down into an ETF
Speaker 1: this you know who that was Katie well Hershey, wow,
Speaker 1: photographic memory over here. Okay, that was like a big deal.
Speaker 1: I had a photographic memory twenty years ago. You know,
Speaker 1: so Will Hershey was talking about met V and this
Speaker 1: is a great clip because sometimes on the show, I'll
Speaker 1: kind of chat with Matt ahead of time before that
Speaker 1: we go to air, and I'll just give him some
Speaker 1: like inside Baseball and he'll go right on air with it.
Speaker 1: So I told him about the MeTV ticker sale to
Speaker 1: Mark Zuckerberg, and Will did not want this brought up.
Speaker 1: So go ahead, you know, let me soften you up
Speaker 1: with a few questions first and then hit you at
Speaker 1: the hard one. But I'll just go ahead and ask
Speaker 1: you sold the ticker Meta to Mark Zuckerberg. I guess
Speaker 1: he called you up and said, will you know I'll
Speaker 1: give you like your own Caribbean island? What did you
Speaker 1: get for that? You know, I'm actually probably gonna plead
Speaker 1: the fifth on that one. What I will say is
Speaker 1: changing from Meta to met V I think eliminated some
Speaker 1: of the confusion in the market. When Facebook changed their
Speaker 1: name to Meta, that was truly a validation of the
Speaker 1: theme for us, and we're seeing investors play with their money.
Speaker 1: Wait a sophomone up there. I was going to but
Speaker 1: I felt like, you know, we only have a half hour,
Speaker 1: and if you take out commercial breaks, it's more like
Speaker 1: twenty two minutes. So why beat around the bush right
Speaker 1: right to the jugular exactly. So he got his own
Speaker 1: G five fifty now or G six fifties something like.
Speaker 1: He got his own private jet for selling Mark Zuckerberg
Speaker 1: the meta ticker. And what's great about that is he
Speaker 1: had his own canned answer. But Matt puts so much
Speaker 1: of what people are really thinking in the question that
Speaker 1: everything is out there now. Because you knew Will wasn't
Speaker 1: going to really do much with that, he said his
Speaker 1: little thing and then and wanted to go away. I
Speaker 1: remember after that happened, when it was announced they were
Speaker 1: actually changing the ticker, so many people asked me for
Speaker 1: a number. Oh how much did he get? We never
Speaker 1: quite got it out of him, Do you know Eric?
Speaker 1: I think Eric knows. There were rumors. I think we're
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five million. I don't know if that's what
Speaker 1: I thought as well. I heard twenty five million. You
Speaker 1: can buy an island with that, right somewhere. I think
Speaker 1: you can buy a jet with that, and then you
Speaker 1: can just go to whichever island. You have to have
Speaker 1: multiple bank accounts. He's still working though, Like so, I
Speaker 1: don't know, if I got twenty five million, I might
Speaker 1: just leave the ends with the two hundred and fifty
Speaker 1: thousand dollars FDIC insurance limit. You'd have to open a
Speaker 1: ton of bank accounts. It still just makes me astounded
Speaker 1: that Mark was willing to change his name, the name
Speaker 1: of the company to Meta Like it was a big step.
Speaker 1: He was so crazy and bold um and you know,
Speaker 1: we'll see how that stake. Maybe a decade or earlier,
Speaker 1: I don't know. Yeah, it was like, everybody's gonna say,
Speaker 1: return to office now, stop doing this thing called the metaverse. Yeah,
Speaker 1: well it's gonna be a little bit ironic if met
Speaker 1: if Meta orders everyone back to the office and they're like,
Speaker 1: why just to be in the Horizonville with a torso, yeah,
Speaker 1: all of us could be doing this right now, someone said,
Speaker 1: Someone asked me, what was the bigger mistake Mark Stuckerberg
Speaker 1: changing the whole company and betting on Metaverse, or Tom
Speaker 1: Brady coming back to play another year with the Bucks
Speaker 1: and kind of like ruining his marriage. To Zuck's credit,
Speaker 1: he changed the conversation he did not like the one
Speaker 1: that they were having about his company. Absolutely, he created
Speaker 1: a whole new I think Tom Brady Trumps very Trumpish
Speaker 1: of him, and Brady hasn't quite learned that lesson yet.
Speaker 1: But the ETF side of this was from the moment
Speaker 1: that it happened, we are like, that's that's gonna be awesome. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's so good on you for asking it about it,
Speaker 1: Matt Okay number three sometimes a big name. Yeah, we
Speaker 1: get some big names sometimes. Kathy Wood, whom you know,
Speaker 1: has had a rough year, but she's always interesting. She's
Speaker 1: just good TV because she says a lot. She's just
Speaker 1: the people who are at the top of the companies
Speaker 1: are always the best interviews because they don't really they're
Speaker 1: not in the middle. They don't really care what their
Speaker 1: bosses think because they are the boss, right, So Kathy's
Speaker 1: very open. We asked her about she says her funds
Speaker 1: are inherently ESG. That's a huge theme on the show,
Speaker 1: and we asked her whether she agrees with Elon that
Speaker 1: ESG is outrageous scam. Sort of an interesting wedge question
Speaker 1: that characterization of ESG. What I've always said when people
Speaker 1: have asked us about our our portfolios, I've always said
Speaker 1: they are intrinsically good for the environment, socially good, and
Speaker 1: you know, we have a scoring system around government, so
Speaker 1: we certainly, we certainly are focused on doing the right thing,
Speaker 1: which is what I think ESG is all about. I
Speaker 1: think it got way out of hand and there was
Speaker 1: a lot of slapping lipstick on a pig, and you know,
Speaker 1: basically Annie portfolio being kind of promoted as ESG all right, Well,
Speaker 1: to some extent she was right. She was kind of
Speaker 1: proved out or Elon Musk I should say, was right
Speaker 1: by msdi's recent move. Right. Yeah, I've always been BULLISHESG metrics.
Speaker 1: If you're analyzing a company or an active manager, why
Speaker 1: not get more data that's going to be a huge area,
Speaker 1: packaging it into a fund and like making your banking,
Speaker 1: your retirement on it, your kids education. I'll always skeptical
Speaker 1: of that. And it's trying to make something that's subjective
Speaker 1: objective and it's very difficult to do that. So ESG
Speaker 1: funds barish, ESG metrics bullish for me. Yeah, I mean
Speaker 1: it's just such a broad umbrella. Someone's going to be upset.
Speaker 1: But ESG is I think probably come up on every show, right,
Speaker 1: oh yeah about its every show. But the thing the
Speaker 1: thing is, I think people invested on principles long before
Speaker 1: ESG was around. But you're very smart to point out
Speaker 1: that it's subjective, right, and what the taxonomy is trying
Speaker 1: to do is turn it into an objective thing, and
Speaker 1: I think they've failed pretty miserably at least thus far.
Speaker 1: Speaking of which, speaking your take on any of these things, Joe,
Speaker 1: I have no takes for this one. This is all
Speaker 1: this is you guys. Well, I do you think we
Speaker 1: talked about ESG a lot on trillions? I think you're
Speaker 1: the way you just described it, Eric, I think is
Speaker 1: interesting because I don't think that's come through the in
Speaker 1: the trillion segments that we've done, that the metrics you're
Speaker 1: interested in, and that your your pro data just not
Speaker 1: maybe more accuri Yeah, because ESGTF inherently wants to take
Speaker 1: over your core because why would you put five percent
Speaker 1: into an ESG fund, Because then you're still on SPY,
Speaker 1: which has all the bad stocks, right, So you kind
Speaker 1: of have to go all in if you're going to
Speaker 1: be ESG, and that's I don't know, that's that's basically
Speaker 1: betting all your money on a more expensive active approach,
Speaker 1: which again you can underperform. And that's what people saw
Speaker 1: in the past eighteen months. That's I've just been barished
Speaker 1: on that. Yeah, everything else I kind of get so
Speaker 1: interesting way to articulate it. Okay, so good transition here,
Speaker 1: because this next guest made a ton of noise in
Speaker 1: the ETF space and then he went ahead and like
Speaker 1: declared himself a presidential potential. Yeah. This is vevek Roumswamy
Speaker 1: who started Strive And as we interviewed him over we
Speaker 1: had him on Trillions, we had him on the show,
Speaker 1: you could see he was just getting himself into this
Speaker 1: political sort of communication and I'm not surprised. It just
Speaker 1: evolved him going, you know what, screw at ETFs aren't enough.
Speaker 1: I'm running for presidents. So signs were there, so yeah,
Speaker 1: you know, logical transition. It could have been the endgame
Speaker 1: from the beginning. Well, but Nature Racing are talking about
Speaker 1: how like this is like ETF marketing to a whole
Speaker 1: nother level because he's going to be able to maybe
Speaker 1: like because the ETFs match what he's saying on the
Speaker 1: presidential trail. Anyway, Matt had a really cool set up
Speaker 1: for a question to Vevec, and Vevec, I gotta say,
Speaker 1: is a very good communicator regardless if you agree or not,
Speaker 1: you're focused vic on making money, right, This is what
Speaker 1: investors want to do. I think of it like Michael
Speaker 1: Jordan in that great documentary said, I just didn't want
Speaker 1: to focus on politics. I was focused on winning basketball games.
Speaker 1: There are athletes who focus on politics and they don't
Speaker 1: necessarily put up as many points on the board as
Speaker 1: those who focus on what they're doing, what they're there for.
Speaker 1: And that's what you want to really bring out here.
Speaker 1: You want to sort of rebirth capitalism into the investment
Speaker 1: space exactly, and starting with the US energy sector, picking
Speaker 1: the one sector to that I think has been most
Speaker 1: economically damaged by these politicized demands coming from large capital
Speaker 1: owners and shareholders. And so our message is really simple.
Speaker 1: If you're an oil company, be a great oil company.
Speaker 1: If you're a natural gas company, be a great natural
Speaker 1: gas company. And if you're an alternative energy company, be
Speaker 1: a great alternative energy company. But don't mendate oil company
Speaker 1: needs to stop being oil companies, which is what the
Speaker 1: likes of black Rock, State Street and Vanguard have done. Now,
Speaker 1: I will say Matt didn't exactly ask a question there.
Speaker 1: I didn't mean to sell his ETF for him re
Speaker 1: listening to that. I wish I could shorten that intro
Speaker 1: because and and and end your statement with the question
Speaker 1: instead of also comparing him to Jordan. I don't know
Speaker 1: that that was right. Well, it lives on in chiliance forever. Now. Well,
Speaker 1: I recently watched Last Dance again with my twelve year old,
Speaker 1: and I noticed that Jordan had to account for that
Speaker 1: whole Republicans buy sneakers too, and that's sort of what
Speaker 1: he said. He's like, I'm just busy playing basketball. I
Speaker 1: just didn't really want to get into that arena. So
Speaker 1: I think that's what your question was focused on. But
Speaker 1: he because he was trying to defend that he wasn't
Speaker 1: anti EESG. He was just provaci. We called it the
Speaker 1: anti woke ETF and he didn't like that, or at
Speaker 1: least he didn't want us to frame it that way,
Speaker 1: or at least he wanted to push back against framing
Speaker 1: it that way. I think, though, that he misses an
Speaker 1: important point, which is that sometimes companies need to pivot.
Speaker 1: I mean, sometimes you're an oil producer and then you
Speaker 1: realize you should be a battery maker. Maybe that's too
Speaker 1: much of a pivot, but you get my point right,
Speaker 1: and his theory or his investment strategy doesn't really allow
Speaker 1: for that. Well, I think his point, like if you
Speaker 1: think we had him on around the launch of the
Speaker 1: Strive US Energy ETF, which tracks I shares is Energy ETF,
Speaker 1: and his whole point was these companies need to drill
Speaker 1: more and fracmore, basically making the point that they're not.
Speaker 1: It's not that they're pivoting, which to your point, some
Speaker 1: companies need to do. It's just they're straying away from
Speaker 1: what they're supposed to do and not even channeling that
Speaker 1: energy into something productive. He's concerned about the regulation, but
Speaker 1: sometimes these companies decide not to drill more in fracmore
Speaker 1: because it's not economically expedient to do so. Right, If
Speaker 1: they see a downturn coming, if they see a drop
Speaker 1: in demand, they're naturally going to pull back on investment.
Speaker 1: So there's a difference between making the right decision for
Speaker 1: your shareholders and being forced to do something by But
Speaker 1: this taps into this. ETF doesn't have hardly any assets,
Speaker 1: like VTI alone takes in more than their whole company
Speaker 1: every day. But VTI, what can you say, it's the
Speaker 1: total market. So this also talks about with TV some
Speaker 1: things play well that tap into debates and conversations that
Speaker 1: don't have a lot of assets, like ESG versus Vanguard.
Speaker 1: You know, we cover Vanguard to a degree, but asset wise,
Speaker 1: we should cover them for a third of the show,
Speaker 1: but we don't. We give more time to some of
Speaker 1: this other stuff that's new or innovative or debatable. By
Speaker 1: the way, don't vevex ETFs mimic existing gigantic products that
Speaker 1: are already in the market, except for they have a
Speaker 1: much higher expense ratio. So Strive wants to charge a
Speaker 1: lot more money for something that's very similar to something
Speaker 1: that Vanguard gives away for free. Close but the fees
Speaker 1: are the same, but they're there. Yeah, the fees are
Speaker 1: the same. To his credit, and then they just say
Speaker 1: we're going to erase that part mat cut That also
Speaker 1: also probably a better ticker. Um, but yeah, speaks to uh,
Speaker 1: there's some interesting takeaways in that one. Okay, next, Yeah, Next,
Speaker 1: we have nature Acy, who's a friend of the show,
Speaker 1: you know, a great guy. He was on. And we
Speaker 1: have advisors on the A block. These are people who
Speaker 1: invest and actually put money to work. That's what our
Speaker 1: A block's about he talks about a one trillion prediction,
Speaker 1: and this also Katie's reaction to his answer. Katie's got
Speaker 1: the best reactions and she cracks me up constantly. And
Speaker 1: I think this clip sort of shows that because the
Speaker 1: first US listed ETF, the Spider SNP five hundred ETF,
Speaker 1: turns thirty years old next month, and from my perspective,
Speaker 1: it's pretty remarkable that ETFs have now been around for
Speaker 1: three decades, yet the industry is still accelerating, still growing,
Speaker 1: Which gets to my first prediction, which is that I
Speaker 1: believe ETF inflows will surpass one trillion in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 1: So we knocked on the door in twenty twenty one
Speaker 1: had over nine hundred billion of inflows. Twenty twenty two
Speaker 1: is we just discussed highly impressive just given the markets
Speaker 1: around six hundred billion in inflows. I think twenty twenty
Speaker 1: three will be the year that we eclipse one trilling
Speaker 1: and influence for the first time. I just think the
Speaker 1: ETF industry is firing on all cylinders right now, and
Speaker 1: ETFs are the investment vehicle moving forward. Eric, did you
Speaker 1: know that Spy and I are the same age. We
Speaker 1: have almost the same birthday. I was born in May.
Speaker 1: That is really cool. It's a great fun fact for
Speaker 1: the last show. It's not my birthday yet, but very
Speaker 1: soon Katie's birthday. That stuff really makes financial television work
Speaker 1: because a lot of it's scripted. The people are scripted,
Speaker 1: they're on message points. I think when I watch, I
Speaker 1: like to see the coloring out of the lines to
Speaker 1: a degree in between some of the guests. So I
Speaker 1: like that you're good at coloring outside the lines, Katie. Well,
Speaker 1: this is why I was so thrilled to be a
Speaker 1: part of this next generation of ETF i Q because
Speaker 1: I knew it was going to be with Eric, who
Speaker 1: I get along with famously. I knew I was going
Speaker 1: to be with Matt Miller, who it's hard to script you, Matt,
Speaker 1: It's hard to keep you in the box. So it's
Speaker 1: well Matt. So Matt doesn't go to many of the
Speaker 1: prep meetings. But I think that's a that's a feature,
Speaker 1: not a bug, because we kind of like overdo it.
Speaker 1: We think it we're cooking and cooking. Let me get overcook.
Speaker 1: He comes in and sort of just keeps it fresh, alive.
Speaker 1: He might just ask something from the newsflow from another
Speaker 1: show he was on because he's on radio all like
Speaker 1: since like four more be fair. I don't go to
Speaker 1: the prep meetings because you hold them while I'm on
Speaker 1: a live international broadcast. For sure, for sure, that's true.
Speaker 1: I think it works. I think the dynamic works because
Speaker 1: also you have to assume that people who are perhaps
Speaker 1: watching at one pm on television, maybe they're not so
Speaker 1: in the weeds as we are. So Matt brings it
Speaker 1: is a lot of fun though, because you guys are
Speaker 1: the insiders, right, I mean, Katie's reporting on this for
Speaker 1: BN all day. You run this trillions podcast with Joel,
Speaker 1: so you guys live in the ETF world. You go
Speaker 1: to the conference in Miami to clear I try and
Speaker 1: stay outside of that. Well yeah, no, Matt and Joel
Speaker 1: are the like the the Jim Nances of this, right,
Speaker 1: we're the Tony Romos right there. Get that reference. Let's
Speaker 1: come out of the weeds here and keep does this
Speaker 1: break this down, keep it simple. I think Tony Romo
Speaker 1: is the one that makes the money. But um, okay,
Speaker 1: how do you feel about this one trillion dollar prediction?
Speaker 1: Now it's probably not gonna happen. They've taken seventy five
Speaker 1: billion in the first quarter. Oh, is that for overall
Speaker 1: ETF flows? Yeah, yeah, yeah, it feels like that's not
Speaker 1: gonna happen. Probably not, but I think over time, I'm
Speaker 1: just very bullish on the industry. But a trillion this
Speaker 1: year probably not gonna happen. But he knows. Okay, we
Speaker 1: got another one. So a block macro C block, ETF
Speaker 1: B block is where we bring on like a bi
Speaker 1: analyst like Athan or James, or a b N person
Speaker 1: like Sam Potter or Fildonna. And in this case, we're
Speaker 1: gonna look at Sam Potter, who talked about bond mutual
Speaker 1: funds to ETFs and he's one of our favorite guests,
Speaker 1: Boomberg News editor Sam Potter. But what's been going on
Speaker 1: under the surface is this ship between bond mutral funds
Speaker 1: to ets. Now, we know that bond ets have really
Speaker 1: come of age these last couple of years, especially after
Speaker 1: the pandemic and the FED stepping into back bond ETFs.
Speaker 1: But what's different this year is this sort of consistent
Speaker 1: outflows from bond mutual funds where now something like four
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty billion dollars have left bond mutual funds
Speaker 1: in the past year. Or so at the same time
Speaker 1: about one hundred and fifty billion going into ets. It
Speaker 1: sounds so much better coming from Sam Potter. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: say he's even good looking just an audio so Matt
Speaker 1: got there before I was going to even bring it up.
Speaker 1: I love having Sam Potter on because he's my etf editor,
Speaker 1: et cetera, you know, fantastic person to work with. But
Speaker 1: also every time he's on, Matt invariably says in the chat,
Speaker 1: this man is so handsome. Well, it's not my fault.
Speaker 1: I mean, he's objectively an attractive man. Yes, I don't
Speaker 1: know what to say else about that. He's got a
Speaker 1: little the Hu Grant thing. And then his voice is
Speaker 1: just sound. You know, he's got, He's got, He's definitely
Speaker 1: got some thing. Okay, wait, well the words, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the Let's talk about the substance of his words, Katie.
Speaker 1: Anything you want to say about bond mutual words are
Speaker 1: also really good that come out of his mouth. And
Speaker 1: I mean what he was talking about there, that trend
Speaker 1: that we were talking about for months every single show,
Speaker 1: the fact that bond ets were taking in billions and billions,
Speaker 1: and at the same time bond mutual funds are absolutely bleeding.
Speaker 1: That was one of the big themes of twenty twenty
Speaker 1: two and continues to be a theme of twenty twenty three. Right,
Speaker 1: I mean that's going to go on until what mutual
Speaker 1: funds are all bled out? No? I think they won't
Speaker 1: all bleed out. They got the phone as long as okay,
Speaker 1: but that could change. Right, do you expect regulation to
Speaker 1: address you know ETFs and four oh one ks. Ever,
Speaker 1: the thing with ETF and formal cas is like, um,
Speaker 1: I don't remember Superman two, Yes, of course. Yeah, when
Speaker 1: he goes into the booth Richard Pryor, No, that's four okay.
Speaker 1: Superman two two. So remember he wants to marry Lois Lane,
Speaker 1: but he has to lose his powers in order and
Speaker 1: be a human to marry Lois. Right, that was sad.
Speaker 1: So he goes into the box and they up all
Speaker 1: his powers away. Feels in hindsight, it feels way too
Speaker 1: early to be going down this Superman trajectory, hear me out. No,
Speaker 1: it just ETFs lose Superman's fault. But Superman two should
Speaker 1: not have gone there this quickly. Yeah, true, true, it
Speaker 1: was heavy and that was the one where they had
Speaker 1: the three villains member who came and then three from crypton. Yes, anyway,
Speaker 1: so they came in that mirror that just spun around
Speaker 1: all the time until it's a great yeah. So he
Speaker 1: goes in the box and there's this like thing that
Speaker 1: goes on and he loses his powers. ETFs lose their
Speaker 1: superpowers in a four one K plan. You don't need
Speaker 1: to trade them. In a four one K plan. The
Speaker 1: mutual fund usually get the eye class, so it's as
Speaker 1: cheap as the ETF, and the tax efficiency of the
Speaker 1: ETF goes away because there's a tax deferred. So mutual
Speaker 1: funds are pretty much on a level playing field. Take
Speaker 1: them into a taxable count. ETFs usually are going to
Speaker 1: win that battle. But that's sort of why four when
Speaker 1: K plans don't have a lot of ETFs. That said,
Speaker 1: you can still get a Vanguard or a Fidelity Bond
Speaker 1: index mutual fund and you're gonna get the same thing
Speaker 1: as an ETF. So I I think passive definitely growing
Speaker 1: in the four one K you don't necessarily need the ETF.
Speaker 1: Rapper there, got it, okay. And last guest, last one
Speaker 1: is somebody who had a couple of times we had
Speaker 1: him on We did the show in Miami, and Katie
Speaker 1: has done a good job booking this guy. It's the
Speaker 1: deputyco of Double Line, Jeff Sherman, who basically works for
Speaker 1: Jeff Gunlock, who everybody knows, and he's I think he's
Speaker 1: good because here he's talking about the FED and on
Speaker 1: our show we definitely talk about a lot of macro issues.
Speaker 1: So it's an ETF show, but the macro is important
Speaker 1: to know where to tweak and shift your ETFs. You know,
Speaker 1: I want to ask a little bit about Gunlock, your boss.
Speaker 1: I've been to several ETF conferences over the past six
Speaker 1: years and he's pretty brutal on the FED. He's been
Speaker 1: a pretty big critic of the FED. And I guess
Speaker 1: now that we're in a different environment, I guess how
Speaker 1: would you grade the FED? Do you think? Here's a
Speaker 1: I think a tweet they brought up this is him
Speaker 1: at the Exchange conference, basically saying the FED had just
Speaker 1: tracked the two year get rid of eight hunt An
Speaker 1: economists PhDs. By the way, that's right, that's right. Expensive. Yeah,
Speaker 1: So I guess how would you grade the FED? In
Speaker 1: they're dealing with that shock inflation print? Since then? Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, they're doing their job, right. I mean,
Speaker 1: we haven't seen kind of a hiking cycle like this.
Speaker 1: If they deliver on the fifty, it'll be the highest
Speaker 1: hiking cycle really in the post World War two era
Speaker 1: in a calendar year. And so they are being aggressive
Speaker 1: and so the great I think they're doing a relatively
Speaker 1: good job. But it's a shock and a campaign because
Speaker 1: there's times they waffle a little bit, which gets this
Speaker 1: risk on trade, the pivots coming. And I think also
Speaker 1: traders have a short memory. I love talking to Jeff
Speaker 1: Sherman because he's really an investor. We can have a
Speaker 1: high level conversation with him, but he also will just
Speaker 1: explicitly say I like this type of bonds, I'm not
Speaker 1: touching junk at this time, things like that, So he
Speaker 1: really he gets into it. This I think speaks to
Speaker 1: our program. Isn't just about ETFs and a vacuum, right,
Speaker 1: and it would make sense to talk about them like
Speaker 1: that anyway. So we bring in every Monday the news
Speaker 1: of the day and what's going on in markets because
Speaker 1: that's important to ETF investors as well. And that's why
Speaker 1: I think Jeff Sherman is one of the great guests
Speaker 1: to have on this show. I mean, to Katie's point,
Speaker 1: he you know, at the end of the day, he
Speaker 1: needs to make money. Double Line isn't famous because Jeff Goodlock,
Speaker 1: you know, dresses so well. Double Line is famous because
Speaker 1: they've been killing it. They knocked the ball out of
Speaker 1: the park over the last decade. They've outperformed everybody else.
Speaker 1: And that's why it's great to have Jeff Sherman and
Speaker 1: talk to us about how to actually invest and make
Speaker 1: money in the ETF market. And they're ETFs trade a ton.
Speaker 1: I'd say it maybe half the investors use ETFs are trading,
Speaker 1: they're tweaking, they're moving their portfolios. Maybe the other half
Speaker 1: is a little more in the vanguardian front, like a
Speaker 1: Dan Egan from Betterment who they don't trade hardly at all,
Speaker 1: although we'll have Dan on they'll make little shifts or
Speaker 1: every year they make a shift. But then there's people
Speaker 1: who tune into Bloomberg TV who might be living in
Speaker 1: Florida and just looking to suit do some day trading,
Speaker 1: and they need to hear from us. You're like, my dad,
Speaker 1: you all dread traders live in Florida? Is that the idea?
Speaker 1: I was just trying to create a little bit of
Speaker 1: a stereotype maybe, but yeah, I think a lot of
Speaker 1: them do. I think a lot of people down there
Speaker 1: have money and they're a little bit like have time
Speaker 1: on their hands or phoenix. Yeah, maybe yes, But I'm
Speaker 1: just thinking of like there's professionals who need to know
Speaker 1: what to do because that's their job, and then there's
Speaker 1: also just individual retail investors who are just want to
Speaker 1: be aware. And then a lot of times in the show,
Speaker 1: we'll go from Jeff Sherman talking about macro to talking
Speaker 1: about ETFs that he offers and why they might be
Speaker 1: a solution to that, or even other people's ETFs will
Speaker 1: asking about HyG so we will pepper in ETFs to
Speaker 1: the macro. So because I always thought ETFs are how
Speaker 1: you play at home to everything being said on Bloomberg TV. Sure,
Speaker 1: they democratize everything you can do any trade, and they
Speaker 1: can be good for retail investors, they can be good
Speaker 1: for institutional investors. I love talking about bond blocks, you know,
Speaker 1: because that is like deep in the weeds, nitty gritty
Speaker 1: ETF tools that you can use in a much larger
Speaker 1: trading strategy. Yeah. Absolutely, but no bigger topic right now
Speaker 1: for an investor like this than than the FED and
Speaker 1: how the Fed's doing their jobs. The Fed's always the
Speaker 1: biggest topic. I mean, even if like for a while
Speaker 1: for a while, I'm not so sure it was, but
Speaker 1: like it definitely wasn't, dude. They were at ZERPE for
Speaker 1: ten years zero interest rate policy or NERP near zero
Speaker 1: interestrate policy. Right, So for a long time, earnings really mattered.
Speaker 1: People cared how companies did in the stock market. You know,
Speaker 1: for a long time it was about the economy that said.
Speaker 1: Sometimes they'd be like, you have like a good earnings run,
Speaker 1: and then someone would go, like, wait a second, the
Speaker 1: FED could raise rates and actually you'd have a sell off.
Speaker 1: There has been this interesting good news, bad news, bad news,
Speaker 1: good news, back and forth. Sometimes they line up good
Speaker 1: news is good news, but the sometimes good news is
Speaker 1: bad news, and it's usually because the Fed's reaction is
Speaker 1: going to create a sell off, even though that you
Speaker 1: had just had good news. It's just it's just the
Speaker 1: FED is a huge force. It comes up a lot,
Speaker 1: and as it should be. Matt Katie, thanks for arnings
Speaker 1: on Trilliance and Leisure. Congrats on ETFIQ. Thank you Thanks
Speaker 1: for having us, Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time.
Speaker 1: You can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com,
Speaker 1: Apple Podcast, Spotify, and wherever else you like to listen.
Speaker 1: We'd love to hear from you. We're on Twitter, I'm
Speaker 1: at Joel Wepper Show. He's at Eric Falcuna's. This episode
Speaker 1: of Trillions was produced by Magnets Hendricksonpye