WEBVTT - At the Money: Investing Is Hard

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<v Speaker 1>BAA. Have you ever wondered why investing is so hard?

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<v Speaker 1>Why is it that your instincts always lead you astray?

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<v Speaker 1>Why are stories so compelling but probabilities leave us cold?

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<v Speaker 1>Why do you join the crowd buying in at the

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<v Speaker 1>top and then panic sel at the bottom. As it

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<v Speaker 1>turns out, you're just not built for this. I'm Barry Retoults,

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<v Speaker 1>and on today's edition of At the Money, we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to discuss evolutionary psychology at what it means for your portfolios.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's bring in Brian Portnoy. His firm Shaping Wealth helps

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<v Speaker 1>financial professionals with both money and meaning. So Brian, welcome

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<v Speaker 1>to At the Money. It turns out that investing is

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<v Speaker 1>hard for a reason. Tell us about that.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, thanks, Barry. We weren't wired for this. The brain

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<v Speaker 2>between our ears is more than one hundred thousand years old,

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<v Speaker 2>all right, So we're working with pretty old machinery. Money,

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<v Speaker 2>which we probably take for granted, is a relatively new invention.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's just call it, to make it easy, three thousand

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<v Speaker 2>years old. The brain's one hundred thousand years old. Money's

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<v Speaker 2>three thousand years old. The way we evolved was not

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<v Speaker 2>to spend and save wisely or to invest using modern

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<v Speaker 2>portfolio theory. Now, we are wired to survive in a

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<v Speaker 2>wild and dangerous environment where money was not even a thing.

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<v Speaker 2>So money and brains tend not to work very well together.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's take some examples.

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<v Speaker 1>Where does this evolutionary baggage that we're all stuck with,

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<v Speaker 1>how does it lead us astray?

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<v Speaker 3>Give us some examples.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, let's talk about time now versus later. So we

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<v Speaker 2>are as humans, really the only species that, in a

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<v Speaker 2>sophisticated way, can mental time travel. We've got the future,

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<v Speaker 2>we've got the past, we've got the present. And you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we were raised, we grew up as a species in

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<v Speaker 2>an immediate return environment, so there was a distant future.

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<v Speaker 2>But when you're out on the savannah and you're trying

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<v Speaker 2>to kill that animal and you're trying not to be eaten,

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<v Speaker 2>you're really focused on the here and now. Well, if

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<v Speaker 2>someone says, hey, you know, you're thirty five or forty

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<v Speaker 2>years old and we're going to put together a thirty

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<v Speaker 2>year portfolio for you, that literally doesn't make any sense

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<v Speaker 2>to who we are as a human species.

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<v Speaker 1>So let's talk a little bit about words and numbers.

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<v Speaker 1>Why is it that we love a great story. But

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<v Speaker 1>when we start thinking about probabilities and odds and numbers,

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<v Speaker 1>our brains turned to mush.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it's just true that we were born as storytellers

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<v Speaker 2>and not as calculators. We're not particularly numerative. I say

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<v Speaker 2>two plus two. You don't calculate that, you just know

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<v Speaker 2>it's for. But if I give you something even slightly

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<v Speaker 2>more complicated, we begin to stammer over, well, what would

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<v Speaker 2>the answer be versus the way that we as a

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<v Speaker 2>tribal species developed many many years ago, thousands of years ago,

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<v Speaker 2>which was sharing stories. So the brain has evolved to

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<v Speaker 2>love and cherish stories. It's the way that we live

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<v Speaker 2>our lives. In fact, as we listen to new information,

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<v Speaker 2>we watch TV or read the internet, we are processing

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<v Speaker 2>enormous amounts of information and picking and choosing the bits

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<v Speaker 2>that map to the stories that we already believe. Some

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<v Speaker 2>psychologists might call this confirmation bias. Numbers they don't really

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<v Speaker 2>compute literally and figuratively.

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<v Speaker 1>So you talked about telling stories as a group. Let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about humans as social primates and

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<v Speaker 1>the tendency to do what the crowd does. Why is

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<v Speaker 1>that a problem when it comes to stocks, and bonds.

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<v Speaker 2>Well there's a word for that, it's called hurting. But

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<v Speaker 2>why do we heard to begin with? Well, you know

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<v Speaker 2>you asked me at the start. You know what happened

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<v Speaker 2>to get us going in this direction? Well, one was

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<v Speaker 2>a focus on the here and now. Another was to

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<v Speaker 2>focus on your local tribe, meaning that was a source

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<v Speaker 2>of safety first and foremost, but it also became a

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<v Speaker 2>source of meaning and identity and community. So humans, you know,

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<v Speaker 2>we might think of ourselves as sovereign individuals, but in

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<v Speaker 2>some ways, before we become sovereign individuals, we are born

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<v Speaker 2>into tribal societies, tribal cultures. Our identities are formed through

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<v Speaker 2>those affiliations, and as a result, we want to be

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<v Speaker 2>with everybody else. It's really uncomfortable to go against the grain.

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<v Speaker 2>So fast forward a few thousand years to twenty four

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<v Speaker 2>to seven, fast moving capital markets. When you see people

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<v Speaker 2>running for the door or running into this room, or

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<v Speaker 2>something interesting is taking place, and you're going to be like, huh,

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<v Speaker 2>maybe I should go with them, because there is safety

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<v Speaker 2>in numbers, at least from a genetic wiring point of view.

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<v Speaker 1>So funny you say that as a kid, I grew

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<v Speaker 1>up watching mutual of Omaha's Wild Kingdom. Yeah, and the

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<v Speaker 1>marl Shada, the Savannah and just thousands of will to beast,

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<v Speaker 1>and they would always zoom in on that one limping

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<v Speaker 1>wild of beast on the edge of the herd, and

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<v Speaker 1>you just knew that guy was about to get separated

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<v Speaker 1>from the crowd and it wasn't going.

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<v Speaker 3>To be good for him.

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<v Speaker 2>It was not he was going to lose the race.

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<v Speaker 2>I mean, we are wired for a dynamic that I

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<v Speaker 2>simply called survive and thrive. Job number one every day

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<v Speaker 2>is to stay alive. You don't necessarily need to thrive

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<v Speaker 2>every day. You don't need to hit the jackpot every day,

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<v Speaker 2>but you certainly need to stay alive because you get one.

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<v Speaker 2>You got a one punch ticket, and you got to

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<v Speaker 2>stick around. So veering from the crowd from a historical,

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<v Speaker 2>from an evolutionary, from a psychological point of view, feels

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<v Speaker 2>uncomfortable for a reason because our ancestors who did veer

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<v Speaker 2>from the crowd, they're not really around to pass on

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<v Speaker 2>their genes to us, right, the.

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<v Speaker 3>Ones that the lines culled from the herd. That genetic

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<v Speaker 3>line ends there.

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<v Speaker 2>That's the way evolution works. We are an adaptive species,

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<v Speaker 2>so there are certain genes and instincts that are more

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<v Speaker 2>by luck than by design. They land well in the world,

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<v Speaker 2>and those are the ones that get replicated. Those are

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<v Speaker 2>the genes that profligate through our system our biological systems,

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<v Speaker 2>and as a result, the human condition is what it is.

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<v Speaker 3>So let's talk a bit about emotion.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm a big fan of Danny Kanneman's book Thinking Fast

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<v Speaker 1>and Slow. Why is it that our instinctual first reaction

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<v Speaker 1>is this often over the top emotional reaction that gets

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<v Speaker 1>our heart pumping, our breath quick, we begin to sweat.

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<v Speaker 3>Why do we react that way?

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<v Speaker 2>I mean it comes back to this survival instinct, Barry.

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<v Speaker 2>It's this hard wiring that we need to survive. We

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<v Speaker 2>are so good, if you think about it, so good

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<v Speaker 2>at sensing danger. If you walk into a room, could

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<v Speaker 2>be in your home or in the office, or if

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<v Speaker 2>you're socializing with friends. If there's something in that environment

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<v Speaker 2>that feels slightly off, you are so finely attuned to

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<v Speaker 2>it you are going to react. It's just who we are.

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<v Speaker 2>And so when you talk about Danny Kannoman, one of

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<v Speaker 2>my all time heroes, writer of Thinking Fast and Slow,

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<v Speaker 2>inventor of behavioral finance with almost tabsky. You absolutely have

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<v Speaker 2>that quickening heart rate, the pulse is going up, you're

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<v Speaker 2>sweating a little bit. Because that is a natural biological

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<v Speaker 2>reaction to a threatening environment. And the thing is a

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<v Speaker 2>line on the savannah and a red line on a

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<v Speaker 2>stock chart actually trigger us in the exact same way.

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<v Speaker 2>At some level, danger is danger is danger.

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<v Speaker 3>Huh.

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<v Speaker 1>So when we look at how humans have evolved and adapted,

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<v Speaker 1>it seems life on the savannah was hard, and our

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<v Speaker 1>emotions get us excited, and that leads us to a

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<v Speaker 1>fight or flight response, and that affects us in the

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<v Speaker 1>modern capital markets. Tell us what this means for us today.

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<v Speaker 2>One thing I'd want to stress is that you sometimes hear, well,

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<v Speaker 2>let's take the emotions out of investing. Well, it's sort

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<v Speaker 2>of like saying let's take gravity out of space. There's

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<v Speaker 2>no way to get around it. We are emotional creatures.

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<v Speaker 2>Emotions are actually sources of information so that we can

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<v Speaker 2>navigate the world better. So there's nothing wrong with having

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<v Speaker 2>an emotional reaction. Hey, my portfolio is declining in value.

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<v Speaker 2>Am I still going to be able to retire comfortably?

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<v Speaker 2>Those are totally natural, normal reactions. But what I'd stress

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<v Speaker 2>is that we get away from thinking of ourselves as irrational.

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<v Speaker 2>By the way, irrational is an economist's word for stupid,

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<v Speaker 2>We're not stupid. Richard Thaylor, one of the other pioneers

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<v Speaker 2>in behavioral finance, has said that people aren't dumb. The

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<v Speaker 2>world is hard. The world is very hard. We're processing

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<v Speaker 2>a lot of information. It is complicated times. So let's

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<v Speaker 2>not think of ourselves as irrational. Let's think of emotions

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<v Speaker 2>as a source of information and strength and think, well,

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<v Speaker 2>we are normal. We are adaptive for a reason. It

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<v Speaker 2>might land us in a difficult spot, but we can

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<v Speaker 2>pull back from that and, with a little bit of

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<v Speaker 2>self awareness, make better decisions.

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<v Speaker 3>So let me bring up.

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<v Speaker 1>Something that Danny Conneman said that I found so fascinating.

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<v Speaker 1>He said, even I full prey to my own cognitive

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<v Speaker 1>biases and emotional reactions. If someone as knowledgeable and just

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<v Speaker 1>a pioneer in the space as Danny Khneman is susceptible

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<v Speaker 1>to emotions leading him astray, what.

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<v Speaker 3>Hope do the rest of us have?

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<v Speaker 2>We have a ton of hope, Barry, a ton of

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<v Speaker 2>hope because we're not supposed to be automatons. It's an

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<v Speaker 2>awesome thing. That we are emotional. It makes life rich

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<v Speaker 2>and colorful. It's just that we want to make sure

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<v Speaker 2>that we appreciate that emotion is a language with vocabulary,

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<v Speaker 2>and as we navigate markets, as we navigate our financial lives,

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<v Speaker 2>these feelings of greed, joy, fear, envy, anger. One they

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<v Speaker 2>are normal, and two, we can use those as a

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<v Speaker 2>jumping off spot to understanding how we want to approach

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<v Speaker 2>a situation and make things better. When Danny Conman says, hey,

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<v Speaker 2>I can't get rid of my biases, he's opening actually

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<v Speaker 2>a really fantastic door for all of us to appreciate

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<v Speaker 2>that this is just the way that we are. So

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<v Speaker 2>the job here is not to change human nature. It's

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<v Speaker 2>to understand human nature in ways that help us make

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<v Speaker 2>better decisions in a very complicated world.

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<v Speaker 1>So I love the way you're framing that. So let's

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<v Speaker 1>take what's probably one of the two most damaging emotions

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<v Speaker 1>in finance, which is fear. So we're recording this. Markets

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<v Speaker 1>have been a little wobbly the past couple of weeks.

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<v Speaker 1>After a good run from the lows in twenty twenty two,

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<v Speaker 1>things have kind of stumbled a bit, and the genuine

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<v Speaker 1>risk for investors is After this goes on for a

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks or even months, they just throw their hands

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<v Speaker 1>up and say, I'm not sleeping, I'm not comfortable, Get

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<v Speaker 1>me out. Everybody who works with clients has heard that phrase.

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<v Speaker 1>I can't take it anymore, get me out. Usually it's

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<v Speaker 1>a great buying signal. Why is it that at Low's

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<v Speaker 1>our panic reaches a crescendo.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it gets back to the fear instinct. The reason

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<v Speaker 2>we feel fear is that we sense danger. We sense

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<v Speaker 2>a threat to our security. It might not be our

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<v Speaker 2>physical lives way back in the day, but our financial

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<v Speaker 2>lives if they are under threat, well, maybe we can't

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<v Speaker 2>afford to eat, maybe we can't afford our mortgage. These

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<v Speaker 2>feel very uncomfortable. They are legitimate emotions. One thing I'd add, though,

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<v Speaker 2>is that if we think of investing broadly, less as

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<v Speaker 2>a game or a casino something to be one, but

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<v Speaker 2>as a tool in reaching our goals, we actually dampen

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<v Speaker 2>down some of those harsher emotions that we might feel

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<v Speaker 2>because we no longer are asking the question am I

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<v Speaker 2>am I holding the right investments? How much money am

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<v Speaker 2>I losing? We pivot to a more constructive question of

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<v Speaker 2>am I closer to or further away from my goals,

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<v Speaker 2>and the goals actually serve as a really fantastic bridge

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<v Speaker 2>from a cognitive point of view, from an emotional point

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<v Speaker 2>of view, where you can really have a better conversation

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<v Speaker 2>in your own mind with your partner, with your financial advisor.

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<v Speaker 2>It provides a context so that you're not being whipsawed

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<v Speaker 2>by the daily machinations of the market. If you're paying

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<v Speaker 2>too close of an attention to that, you're probably not

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<v Speaker 2>playing the game that you should be in terms of

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<v Speaker 2>long term financial well being.

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<v Speaker 3>Really really intriguing.

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<v Speaker 1>So if I get this right, emotions are natural doesn't

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<v Speaker 1>mean we're dom or stupid.

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<v Speaker 3>It's part of who we are. But allowing your.

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<v Speaker 1>Emotions to affect your thought process to lead to bad

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<v Speaker 1>decisions that could cause bad investments, bad timing, and bad behavior,

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<v Speaker 1>and that leads to bad results.

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<v Speaker 3>But at the very least, if you're aware of your.

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<v Speaker 1>Emotions and put them into some context and don't allow

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<v Speaker 1>them to overly affect your decision making process, hey you're

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<v Speaker 1>halfway there to a successful financial result. The bottom line,

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<v Speaker 1>don't allow your emotions to get the better of you.

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<v Speaker 1>That's just your wetwear. That's just how you're built. You

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<v Speaker 1>can listen to At the Money every week, find it

0:13:55.040 --> 0:13:58.080
<v Speaker 1>in our Masters and Business feed at Bloomberg dot com,

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<v Speaker 1>Apple Podcasts, and Spotify. Each week, we'll be here to

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<v Speaker 1>discuss the issues that matter most to you as an infestor.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Barry Rittolts.

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<v Speaker 1>You've been listening to Add the Money on Bloomberg Radio.