1 00:00:09,880 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jailey. 2 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,519 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg A 5 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,120 Speaker 1: Lisa Martin Newsy or Ahead of You Banking for Bloomberg 6 00:00:37,680 --> 00:00:41,200 Speaker 1: Lisa will Will. The World Cup game caused Deutsche Bank 7 00:00:41,240 --> 00:00:45,199 Speaker 1: to go under eight euros per share. I don't see 8 00:00:45,280 --> 00:00:50,960 Speaker 1: much of a collation, then, I think, I guess what 9 00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:54,600 Speaker 1: we're seeing today? Um, yeah, there's another set off. The 10 00:00:54,600 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 1: stalk has hit a new record low and intraday low. 11 00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 1: I mean it's it's reflective of concerns that investors continue 12 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:06,080 Speaker 1: to have about the potential for for a turnaround at 13 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: the farm. And you also see potential concerns this week 14 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:14,039 Speaker 1: stemming from the qualitative part of the U S Truss 15 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: tests that are due and tomorrow. Well, you bring up 16 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 1: a really important point and it's not just Deutsche Bank 17 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:24,560 Speaker 1: this morning. Tom twelve days of losses for financials on 18 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:28,320 Speaker 1: the SMP five DRED doesn't amount to a massive, massive move, 19 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 1: but it's the longest daily ing street and I did 20 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: what Liza would have done. I compared BMP Perry bout 21 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,160 Speaker 1: a Deutsche Bank, and to be fair to Deutsche Bank, 22 00:01:35,240 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: BMP Perry bar is not doing much better. Yes, So 23 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:39,800 Speaker 1: so I just wonder what's going on with global financials 24 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: at the moment and what underpins the overall concerns. But 25 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,160 Speaker 1: I think in Europe in particular, there's concerns of that 26 00:01:46,280 --> 00:01:50,200 Speaker 1: interest rate wise that was expected at some point is 27 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: being seen as further out into the future. And of 28 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,440 Speaker 1: course that means that you know that the margins remain very, 29 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:02,120 Speaker 1: very very thin in this region for for the seseeable future. Um. 30 00:02:02,440 --> 00:02:05,120 Speaker 1: But you also have investors today saying that they think 31 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: that even at these levels, these shares are overvalued, which 32 00:02:08,480 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: you know is somewhat surprising given to those significantly below 33 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: what they were a decade ago. ELSA in the institutional 34 00:02:14,360 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: America there's something about ten dollars a share and then 35 00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,720 Speaker 1: five dollars a share in terms of ownership. Does that 36 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,360 Speaker 1: seem constraint face Deuts your bank in Euros in Europe? 37 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 1: Is there a trip point where all this matters? No, 38 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:29,400 Speaker 1: I don't think so. We've seen the bank, you know, 39 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 1: across the nine year a mark before and then bounced back. 40 00:02:33,280 --> 00:02:36,239 Speaker 1: So I don't think that's the case, but clearly the 41 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: sustained lack of confidence m is husting the bank and 42 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,320 Speaker 1: will see more of that potentially with second quarter, where 43 00:02:43,360 --> 00:02:45,600 Speaker 1: you know, everybody's going to be focused on just how 44 00:02:45,680 --> 00:02:47,760 Speaker 1: much of that revenue the bank can hang on to 45 00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: as it shrinks in in certain selected areas. And alastin 46 00:02:51,880 --> 00:02:55,120 Speaker 1: banking question that came up earlier this morning in a Lisa, 47 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: you've lived this in Europe, which is negative interest rates 48 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 1: in the Angels system is part of this banking angst. 49 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 1: Just the chronic negative rates that Europe has enjoyed. Well, 50 00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:11,359 Speaker 1: I think that's obviously playing playing a role here. I 51 00:03:11,440 --> 00:03:14,560 Speaker 1: think you know the economic the you know the economic 52 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:18,760 Speaker 1: prospects here, aren't you know that they're not looking as 53 00:03:18,800 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: prosperous as they would have been? And I guess with 54 00:03:21,320 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 1: the potential hits from trade wars, um cloud in the future, 55 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,959 Speaker 1: cloud in the outlook even further, of course, these banks 56 00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:31,840 Speaker 1: need those economies to be growing, which raises the question 57 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 1: why the ECB doesn't respond to what these banks ultimately 58 00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,160 Speaker 1: would like to see net net is the ECB just 59 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:41,680 Speaker 1: made the decision at least that ultimately the negative rates 60 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 1: are what's best for the consonant overall, even if it 61 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:47,240 Speaker 1: does hurt the banks. I guess so. And I think 62 00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: one other that has come out recently, as you know, 63 00:03:49,600 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: the regulators here are pushing for um, you know, greater consolidation, 64 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:55,960 Speaker 1: and it's not clear that they have as much um 65 00:03:56,200 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: you know, as much direct influence on the banks through 66 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,920 Speaker 1: you know, because such a thinly spread market. Just to 67 00:04:03,920 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: get a final question to you on the stress test 68 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:09,640 Speaker 1: results later this week, looking for the results, try and 69 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:11,600 Speaker 1: to gauge the ability of some of these big banks, 70 00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:13,800 Speaker 1: how much they can pay out, how big the dividends 71 00:04:13,840 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: will be. Are these stress tests stressful for these lenders 72 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,040 Speaker 1: or have they worked their way around things? Well? I think, 73 00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 1: you know, the experience has shown that the qualitative qualitatives 74 00:04:24,960 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 1: parts of these tasks, which is what we're going to 75 00:04:27,040 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 1: be hearing about tomorrow, do have an impact. And you know, 76 00:04:30,640 --> 00:04:32,920 Speaker 1: for the European banks, the focus will very much be 77 00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: on Deutsche Bank. Lisa, thank you so much, greatly appreciate it, 78 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:39,920 Speaker 1: very valuable this morning. Lisa marn't Newsy for years just 79 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:44,279 Speaker 1: out front on the Italian banking crisis, and of course 80 00:04:44,320 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 1: what we see across all of um European banking. One 81 00:05:02,360 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: of our great joys our privileges in Bloomberg Surveillance is 82 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:08,159 Speaker 1: to talk to people of different opinions. That we particularly 83 00:05:08,920 --> 00:05:13,080 Speaker 1: enjoy talking to people that can holistically bring parts together, 84 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: like finance, like politics, and like the geography and history 85 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: that we all speak of. And one of those would 86 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: be Stephen Roach. Of course some would consider the inventor 87 00:05:22,839 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: of modern market economics. He single handedly did that in 88 00:05:26,120 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: the digital space at Morgan Stanley years ago, author of 89 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: The Next Asia, and of course at Yale University. Steven Roach, 90 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,479 Speaker 1: Good morning, President. She has to respond if Liz Economy 91 00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:41,279 Speaker 1: tells me this is a new leadership in Beijing, what 92 00:05:41,440 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 1: does President Trump underestimate or misjudge about President She? Well, Um, 93 00:05:48,680 --> 00:05:52,400 Speaker 1: what what the Trump administration is looking for by all 94 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:57,719 Speaker 1: these pressures on China, whether it's on UH, tariffs, intellectual property, 95 00:05:58,000 --> 00:06:02,559 Speaker 1: or investments, is for she to capitulate on his core 96 00:06:02,680 --> 00:06:11,320 Speaker 1: strategy of innovation industrial policy uh and um PAN regional 97 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 1: leadership uh and and she is not going to capitulate 98 00:06:15,960 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: on those core principles, so uh, you know they're they're 99 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:22,800 Speaker 1: really at a at a standoff here, and I think 100 00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 1: while while China certainly does not want a trade war, 101 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:31,320 Speaker 1: they are not about capitulation UM in any sense of 102 00:06:31,320 --> 00:06:34,560 Speaker 1: the word tone. How do you judge the moderates of 103 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 1: the Trump administration. I would assume the announcement this morning 104 00:06:38,320 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: on investment restrictions was a victory for Secretary Minution, of 105 00:06:42,240 --> 00:06:45,640 Speaker 1: victory for their former advisor Gary Cohene, of course for 106 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: years with Golden Sachs. But is he getting an articulate 107 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:56,160 Speaker 1: moderate advice stream at the White House? Not even close. 108 00:06:56,279 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, it's it's just a shading different 109 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: degrees of of China bashing. Some are more extreme than others. 110 00:07:06,920 --> 00:07:10,360 Speaker 1: Navarro and Lightheiser obviously at one end of the spectrum, 111 00:07:10,360 --> 00:07:13,920 Speaker 1: but you know, not too far behind are the UH 112 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: sort of the the ones that would have UM embraced 113 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,360 Speaker 1: this view as well, from from cut Low to um 114 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: Um Manuchin. They just don't don't want to go quite 115 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 1: to the extent that the extremists do. But they're certainly 116 00:07:29,160 --> 00:07:32,800 Speaker 1: not UM an effective counterweight in this. And by the way, 117 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,240 Speaker 1: you know, all the markets are sort of encouraged over 118 00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:44,040 Speaker 1: the UH, the apparent UM backing off on extreme measures 119 00:07:44,040 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 1: on Chinese investment. I think there's still a clear desire 120 00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:52,320 Speaker 1: to use Zippi as far more aggressively in restricting Chinese 121 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: investment into the US in anything even close to resembling 122 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: their made in China in austrial policy. And Stephen, doesn't 123 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:05,280 Speaker 1: that approach make a whole lot of sense. I don't 124 00:08:05,280 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: think it makes any sense at all, because the first 125 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:14,600 Speaker 1: of all, China is very effective now in developing its 126 00:08:14,600 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 1: own indigenous uh technology. Is the idea that they steal 127 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 1: blatantly from Us than the Varro story is hopelessly um 128 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: um out of date. And you know, and certainly there 129 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: were some transgressions in the past, but I think since 130 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: the sunny Land Summit of two thousand fifteen, in the 131 00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: reduction of Chinese state sponsored cyber hacking, which is um 132 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: there's clear evidence of that. I think the Chinese are 133 00:08:43,760 --> 00:08:50,960 Speaker 1: now far more um uh temperate in their exercise of 134 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: technology transfer. The whole concept of force technology transfer through 135 00:08:56,080 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: joint ventures was ludicrous from the start. I mean, this 136 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 1: is you know, light higher fiction to justify the three 137 00:09:02,640 --> 00:09:06,120 Speaker 1: oh one tariffs. Joint ventures. I was a partner of 138 00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,760 Speaker 1: a joint venture with the Chinese. You know, these are 139 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 1: commercial uh efforts legally protected two partners collectively working together 140 00:09:19,160 --> 00:09:23,199 Speaker 1: to build a business. Of course, they share systems, they 141 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: share people, UH, they share technologies. Never once in my 142 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,679 Speaker 1: fifteen years experience and a joint venture with China was 143 00:09:30,720 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: I forced to turn over anything to my Chinese partners. 144 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 1: But Stephen, I guess the argument is that if you 145 00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 1: want to operate in China, you are forced to go 146 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 1: into a joint venture in many sectors and in many 147 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 1: goals of these foreign companies. And I guess you know, 148 00:09:43,320 --> 00:09:45,120 Speaker 1: if you don't like, if you don't like, you know, 149 00:09:46,040 --> 00:09:48,199 Speaker 1: the requirements of the joint venture, which by the way 150 00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:50,320 Speaker 1: of being relaxed, then maybe you don't have to operate 151 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:52,560 Speaker 1: in China. I mean, you know, no one is forcing you. 152 00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 1: It isn't that the argument, Stephen from the U S side, 153 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:57,199 Speaker 1: that if that's the rules of the games in China, 154 00:09:57,240 --> 00:09:58,720 Speaker 1: why shouldn't that be the rule of the game in 155 00:09:58,720 --> 00:10:02,040 Speaker 1: the United States. Well, that's not the rules that the 156 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: United States is imposing on China in any way whatsoever. 157 00:10:05,880 --> 00:10:09,720 Speaker 1: I mean, the the US is now going to um 158 00:10:09,760 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: depending on how they they enforce this new strength and 159 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:18,360 Speaker 1: Cifius action. The US is simply gonna deny China the 160 00:10:18,559 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 1: right to participate in any type of venture, joint or 161 00:10:21,880 --> 00:10:25,960 Speaker 1: otherwise in the United States. And and what China says, 162 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:28,439 Speaker 1: come on in. We want you to as partners, but 163 00:10:28,520 --> 00:10:30,320 Speaker 1: we want you to do it within our legal and 164 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:33,440 Speaker 1: commercial structure. It's a very different concept. Well, Stephen, it's 165 00:10:33,440 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 1: a very different approach. I struggled to understand whether the 166 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: concept is different. The approach might be different. The United 167 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,520 Speaker 1: States making it a little bit more difficult to a 168 00:10:41,720 --> 00:10:44,360 Speaker 1: little bit, wait, hold on, hold on a little bit 169 00:10:44,520 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: is not the right way to describe an actual Well, 170 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: let me finish my sent Just let me finish my sentence. 171 00:10:51,120 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 1: Pushing it through Cyphius in a more stringent way makes 172 00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: it somewhat more difficult. We can have an argument about 173 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:58,440 Speaker 1: the degree. I don't think that's an adequate use of 174 00:10:58,440 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 1: our time this morning. But I just think that the 175 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,000 Speaker 1: United States is possibly doing the right thing. And some 176 00:11:04,040 --> 00:11:07,080 Speaker 1: people might agree with that that if China wants to 177 00:11:07,160 --> 00:11:09,280 Speaker 1: upgrade the way it is, then the United States is 178 00:11:09,320 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 1: sending a message open up even more. Otherwise we'll make 179 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,640 Speaker 1: it more difficult for you to invest in our economy. 180 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:20,720 Speaker 1: But here's the inconsistency of of what you're seeing. The 181 00:11:20,720 --> 00:11:25,280 Speaker 1: the real hope for US China UH to resolve their 182 00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:29,160 Speaker 1: differences is precisely the point you're making, and that's market access. 183 00:11:30,559 --> 00:11:33,440 Speaker 1: The Chinese one access to our markets because we're the 184 00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:39,440 Speaker 1: world's richest and deepest um markets, but we also need 185 00:11:39,520 --> 00:11:42,040 Speaker 1: access to their markets because they're going to grow their 186 00:11:42,040 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 1: consumer economy UH in a way that no nation has 187 00:11:46,679 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: ever done in modern history. I've estimated in a in 188 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:53,560 Speaker 1: a in a book I wrote a few years ago 189 00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 1: on balance that the tradeable portion of Chinese services is 190 00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:01,880 Speaker 1: going to expand by four to six trillion dollars between 191 00:12:01,920 --> 00:12:07,440 Speaker 1: now and we have the most competitive, strongest services sector 192 00:12:07,480 --> 00:12:09,920 Speaker 1: in the world. There's a shame on us, and we 193 00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:12,240 Speaker 1: don't get a piece of that. So the answer is 194 00:12:12,280 --> 00:12:16,000 Speaker 1: not restriction. The answer is opening up market access through 195 00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: a bi lateral investment treaty, which the US and China 196 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 1: have failed to agree on for ten years. We're going 197 00:12:22,960 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 1: exactly the opposite way to your recommendation. Makes absolutely no sense, 198 00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:31,520 Speaker 1: Steve Roach. If you're just joining US folks, Steve Roushevale University, 199 00:12:31,520 --> 00:12:34,079 Speaker 1: and the time we've got left, Dr Roach, I want 200 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: to talk about the Chinese strategy here tip for tat 201 00:12:38,200 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: is the media interpretation of this take us to Avanage 202 00:12:42,840 --> 00:12:46,160 Speaker 1: Dixon in the art of strategy? What is the art 203 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,480 Speaker 1: of strategy? For President she? What does does he just 204 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:53,560 Speaker 1: weigh us out? Is that his number one factor? I 205 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:58,440 Speaker 1: think I think the the the artist strategy is having 206 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 1: a diversified portfolio of foreign interests. So UM, the US 207 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:09,160 Speaker 1: and China have been embraced in a very strong codependent relationship. 208 00:13:09,200 --> 00:13:11,080 Speaker 1: I've talked to you about this for a long time time, 209 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:17,120 Speaker 1: and the Chinese have probably put too many eggs in 210 00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:20,640 Speaker 1: the American basket and they don't have a lot of 211 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: natural allies in in in the in the region, so 212 00:13:23,800 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 1: they have UM really embraced a much broader external strategy. 213 00:13:29,440 --> 00:13:34,040 Speaker 1: So the Belt and Road initiative connecting China through UM 214 00:13:34,400 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 1: foreign direct investment into sixty four other countries in the region. 215 00:13:39,520 --> 00:13:42,880 Speaker 1: It is important building a new financial architecture through the 216 00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, the New Bricks Development Bank. UM. 217 00:13:48,760 --> 00:13:55,959 Speaker 1: China is broadening out uh it's management of geo strategic relationships, 218 00:13:55,960 --> 00:13:59,960 Speaker 1: so that the strategy, so if the US UM continue 219 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,240 Speaker 1: is to try to contain China, which has been you know, 220 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:06,520 Speaker 1: an ongoing feature since the Great Asian pivot of the 221 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:11,080 Speaker 1: Obama administration, then China's other options. Dr Roach, thank you 222 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:14,080 Speaker 1: so much, Stephen Roach at Yale University, is wonderful book 223 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: of a few years ago, the next Asia for that question, 224 00:14:29,640 --> 00:14:32,880 Speaker 1: whatever your politics is across this nation, this is the 225 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:35,520 Speaker 1: interview of the day. We will feature this on our 226 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,960 Speaker 1: podcast out of the Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and we 227 00:14:39,040 --> 00:14:42,600 Speaker 1: do this with Noah Feldman of Harvard. His book of 228 00:14:42,680 --> 00:14:46,280 Speaker 1: eight years ago, Scorpions, is nothing but outstanding. It is 229 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: the battles and triumphs of FDR's great Supreme Court justices. 230 00:14:50,520 --> 00:14:55,320 Speaker 1: And we are thrilled that Professor Feldman writes for Bloomberg Opinion, Um, 231 00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: you brought FDR into the title, uh, Noah, of your essay, 232 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: A decision that will live in infamy, and that goes 233 00:15:03,840 --> 00:15:08,680 Speaker 1: right back to December seven, and we had to decide 234 00:15:08,720 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 1: what to do with the Japanese. What do we get 235 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: so wrong in incarcerating Japanese if we thought they were spies? 236 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,480 Speaker 1: What we got wrong is that we got carried away 237 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: in the very justifiable need to fight our enemy in 238 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:30,720 Speaker 1: the war, and then we projected that onto Japanese Americans 239 00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 1: who were in fact loyal to the United States and 240 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: not to Japan. And then we in turned Japanese Americans 241 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:41,280 Speaker 1: and the Supreme Court to its shame upheld that decision 242 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:44,320 Speaker 1: really out of loyalty to President Roosevelt, and in the 243 00:15:44,400 --> 00:15:47,360 Speaker 1: belief and the staken belief that because the interment was 244 00:15:47,400 --> 00:15:49,960 Speaker 1: any way coming to an end, no one would really 245 00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,680 Speaker 1: remember it going forward. And instead we think of the 246 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: Supreme Court's decision there is one of the worst decisions 247 00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: of the Court has ever made. Let's bring it forward 248 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:02,040 Speaker 1: then to the rationalization of Chief Justice Roberts and the 249 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: deciding vote of Justice Kennedy. And what they did was say, yes, 250 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: that was terrible in the forties, but this is different. 251 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 1: Noah Feldman and Justice Sodamayer disagree. Chief Justice Roberts went 252 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:20,000 Speaker 1: out of his way to say, oh, Karamatta was terrible, 253 00:16:20,160 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: but the travel ban is different, he said, because here 254 00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: on the surface of the ban, there's no reference to 255 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 1: people of Muslim origin, just to a bunch of Muslim 256 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: countries and not where he said, I'm not going to 257 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 1: take very seriously. The background to the band in which 258 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 1: the President and his advisors spoke about the goal of 259 00:16:42,920 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 1: banning Muslims immigrants from the United States, and so as 260 00:16:46,720 --> 00:16:50,520 Speaker 1: a result, he was able to avoid actually looking at 261 00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:55,040 Speaker 1: the evidence that the lower courts did consider. And Justice Kennedy, 262 00:16:55,160 --> 00:16:59,240 Speaker 1: who has, what is unusual circumstances, an admirable history of 263 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,400 Speaker 1: looking very closely at what government officials mean to do 264 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: to see whether they're motivated by by animous in this case, 265 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: was willing to join that opinion and basically close his 266 00:17:10,040 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: eyes to it. And I think that will be a 267 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:16,919 Speaker 1: real deviation from his record and a stain on his reputation. 268 00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:20,600 Speaker 1: Just just Stephen Brier in descent went to that idea 269 00:17:20,640 --> 00:17:25,520 Speaker 1: of your phrase, professor of mean to do? Operationally? How 270 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:31,000 Speaker 1: will this affect the administration? And operationally can people push 271 00:17:31,119 --> 00:17:35,920 Speaker 1: against the arching theme of Trump the Hawaii It really 272 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:39,680 Speaker 1: depends on whether the executive branch uses the system of 273 00:17:39,720 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: exemptions that it has in place to make lots of 274 00:17:42,640 --> 00:17:45,919 Speaker 1: case by case determination. Ordinary people are fine. And if 275 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: they are and they do that, Justice Brier said, well, 276 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 1: then this may not look all that discriminatory. But if 277 00:17:51,680 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: they don't, if the government just sort of said, look, 278 00:17:53,800 --> 00:17:56,440 Speaker 1: if you're from one of these countries, you're excluded, then 279 00:17:56,480 --> 00:17:58,480 Speaker 1: Justice Brier said, the whole thing looks a lot more like. 280 00:17:58,640 --> 00:18:03,719 Speaker 1: And what happens if the Trump administration says anybody from 281 00:18:03,800 --> 00:18:07,760 Speaker 1: country ABC can't come in? What did you learn yesterday 282 00:18:07,880 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: if that statement is made by the administration, Well, we 283 00:18:10,960 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 1: learned yesterday that the court said that the administration can 284 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:15,960 Speaker 1: get away with it as long as they provide really 285 00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:19,480 Speaker 1: a very minimal justification. That says, because we think their 286 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: national security concerns, and even if the way they justified 287 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 1: is pretty unconvincing to most reasonable observers, the government will 288 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: be allowed to get away with that. And in that sense, 289 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: this is a win for the Trump administration. It's a 290 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,240 Speaker 1: validation for the for the Trump administration, and it's a 291 00:18:33,320 --> 00:18:36,639 Speaker 1: defeat for anybody who thinks that the Constitution is supposed 292 00:18:36,640 --> 00:18:38,959 Speaker 1: to stand up and block discrimination. So does this go 293 00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,840 Speaker 1: on forever? I mean, I mean, as you said, Karamatsu 294 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:44,560 Speaker 1: was going to disappear after the war and all that. 295 00:18:44,680 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 1: And does this get amended down the road if if 296 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,480 Speaker 1: the Democrats win three administrations in a row and all 297 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:53,320 Speaker 1: of a sudden it's a liberal court again, does it 298 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: get changed or is it a lot? Is it? Is 299 00:18:55,640 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: it chiseling granted as of yesterday? Well, this scenario is 300 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 1: probably pretty unlikely to repeat itself. And so what you get. 301 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,159 Speaker 1: And this is what happened after Cormato is the scenario 302 00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:09,520 Speaker 1: wasn't repeated, but the President sat there as as Justice 303 00:19:09,600 --> 00:19:12,160 Speaker 1: Jackson actually said in his descent in the Coromanto case, 304 00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:15,760 Speaker 1: the principle sits about like a loaded weapon. It could 305 00:19:15,760 --> 00:19:18,399 Speaker 1: always be used under circumstances of Christ. And that's exactly 306 00:19:18,480 --> 00:19:20,840 Speaker 1: what's going to happen here. This decision will sit there 307 00:19:20,880 --> 00:19:23,359 Speaker 1: like a loaded gun, and it may not be used, 308 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:25,359 Speaker 1: but it's always possible that it will. And a liberal 309 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: Supreme Court eventually would probably say exactly what today's court 310 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 1: said about Cormato. Oh that was terrible, it was wrong. 311 00:19:31,480 --> 00:19:33,320 Speaker 1: We were so confused, and now we should never We 312 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 1: should never have done that. This isn't who we are. 313 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,320 Speaker 1: If you're just joining us from Harvard. Noah Felben, he 314 00:19:37,320 --> 00:19:39,080 Speaker 1: took us a lot degree at a school that serves 315 00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:42,880 Speaker 1: good pizza in New Haven, Connecticut. But Noah Felman with us. 316 00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 1: And I can't say enough folks about his book Scorpions 317 00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:49,680 Speaker 1: and Battles and Triumphs of FDR Court that the whole 318 00:19:49,720 --> 00:19:52,480 Speaker 1: thing of the thirties forties was it was a stacked court, 319 00:19:52,520 --> 00:19:56,200 Speaker 1: that FDR overtly stacked the court. Is that what we're 320 00:19:56,200 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 1: seeing right now with this president. We're not quite at 321 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: that point yet. You know, by the end Roosevelts had 322 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:06,000 Speaker 1: appointed eight justices and the Chief Justice because he was 323 00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 1: president for so long. So far, Donald Trump has just 324 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:13,040 Speaker 1: gotten one justice. The question is will he add more? 325 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:17,320 Speaker 1: And I think it's entirely possible. If Justice Kennedy resigns 326 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: this summer, and if the President is able to nominate 327 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,080 Speaker 1: somebody in the Senate confirmed them before the midterms, we 328 00:20:23,200 --> 00:20:25,960 Speaker 1: may well see an extremely conservative court for at least 329 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,680 Speaker 1: a generation. On the other hand, if that doesn't happen, 330 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:32,760 Speaker 1: or if the Democrat when the Senate, it seems entirely 331 00:20:32,800 --> 00:20:34,920 Speaker 1: probably they will do just what the Republicans didn't block 332 00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:37,120 Speaker 1: any of Donald Trump's nominees, and then all bets are 333 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 1: off place Trump the Hawaii in the phrases that our 334 00:20:40,760 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: audience knows, I think a Row view weight, sere, and 335 00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:47,840 Speaker 1: Brown in the fifties. I mean, where does this case 336 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:53,800 Speaker 1: fit in in Noah Felban's history of the judiciary. Those 337 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:57,679 Speaker 1: are cases that were controversial when they were decided, and 338 00:20:57,720 --> 00:21:00,200 Speaker 1: in the case of Brown against Board, of education. Over time, 339 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:02,879 Speaker 1: everyone came to accept the outcome. In the case of Worldviewade, 340 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 1: everyone didn't come to accept the outcome, and they became 341 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 1: the basis for long term social controversy. This is the 342 00:21:08,320 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: worst decision in a in a serious way, because it 343 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:15,119 Speaker 1: sends a message that it's open season to discriminate. But 344 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,879 Speaker 1: it's also unlikely to cause the same kind of long 345 00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:23,159 Speaker 1: term arguments because unlike segregation or abortion, which were long 346 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:26,560 Speaker 1: term social issues, this is a case that's really restricted 347 00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: to this unique restriction on immigrants from from five Muslim countries. 348 00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:34,600 Speaker 1: One final question, if I could tell us about Justice Roberts. 349 00:21:34,640 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: Chief Justice Roberts, he had an acclaimed decision where he 350 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: went against the republic in our right side tide a 351 00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:45,399 Speaker 1: number of years ago. But but Chief Justice Roberts, he 352 00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 1: wrote the majority opinion. He went against the World War 353 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,880 Speaker 1: two ruling. But what did you learn about Chief Justice 354 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 1: John Roberts yesterday? Justice Roberts. Chief Justice Roberts wants to 355 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:01,159 Speaker 1: follow the principle of judicial restraint. He wants to avoid 356 00:22:01,280 --> 00:22:05,200 Speaker 1: judicial activism, but when it's convenient, he will also go 357 00:22:05,200 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: go the other way. What he did here is I 358 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 1: think he was really trying to preserve the reputation of 359 00:22:09,960 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 1: the Court and try to avoid the Court dirtying its 360 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: hands by dealing with the travel ban. And I just 361 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:17,679 Speaker 1: think he miscalculated. I mean, I think his heart, I 362 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:18,960 Speaker 1: don't want to want to speak about his heart, but 363 00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 1: I think his intention is to keep the Court from 364 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 1: getting caught up in very great controversies. But I think 365 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 1: he made a mistake here and he did get in 366 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,200 Speaker 1: I've got to ask one to find a question. Professor Feldman, 367 00:22:29,280 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 1: you're truly one of the nation's experts on Islamic thought. 368 00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 1: You study in Europe as a Rhodes scholar, and you've 369 00:22:35,480 --> 00:22:39,000 Speaker 1: taken many hours to study Muslim When you see the 370 00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 1: phrases in your essay anti Muslim bias, what does that 371 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,880 Speaker 1: part of America that feels that, what do they get 372 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:52,680 Speaker 1: wrong in their legitimate fears of Islamic extremism. It's that 373 00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: there are absolutely some Muslims who have extreme views and 374 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,560 Speaker 1: who take extreme actions, but that's not the case with 375 00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:04,439 Speaker 1: a great overwhelming majority of Muslims. And as is the 376 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:07,399 Speaker 1: case with any form of discrimination, the mistake is to 377 00:23:07,680 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: stereotype and think that everybody who belongs twit certain category 378 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:14,240 Speaker 1: is like the most extreme versions of that category, and 379 00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: that's just not the case for Muslims, and it's certainly 380 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:18,720 Speaker 1: not the case for Muslims you want emigrate to United States. 381 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,159 Speaker 1: Noah Felban, thank you. We adore that you're right for 382 00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. I'd also point out that not only is 383 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,800 Speaker 1: Professor Feldman written on Trump the Hawaii, but Kess Sunstein 384 00:23:28,880 --> 00:23:30,959 Speaker 1: has written as well. I'll get both of those essays 385 00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 1: out in a busy morning here on social media. Exceptionally 386 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,360 Speaker 1: strong day for Bloomberg Opinion, and l move that out 387 00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: on Twitter as well. Noah Felban is with Harvard much. 388 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:58,119 Speaker 1: We are advantage of Bloomberg to have with us one 389 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:01,199 Speaker 1: of the jewels of the legal racket store store. He 390 00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:04,440 Speaker 1: is Bloomberg Supreme Court at reporter. Far more than that, 391 00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:07,280 Speaker 1: he clerked for Judge Kaufman out of Baltimore, and it's 392 00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 1: spent time at Harvard Law School as well. Gregg, wonderful 393 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,239 Speaker 1: to have you with us this most historic day. I 394 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 1: want to go right to what went zeitgeist across this 395 00:24:15,920 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: nation yesterday, Professor Feldman's Bloomberg opinion column, which summed up 396 00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:23,199 Speaker 1: some of the emotion. We'll get the cast Sunsteen in 397 00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:27,320 Speaker 1: a moment the worst decision since the infamous Corey Matsu case, 398 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,720 Speaker 1: when the Court upheld the interment of Japanese Americans during 399 00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:33,520 Speaker 1: World War Two. These efforts are far too little to 400 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,119 Speaker 1: save the Court or Justice Kennedy from the judgment of history, 401 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: which will be harsh. Chief Justice Roberts also takes the 402 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,439 Speaker 1: opportunity to announce that Corey Mantsu quote was gravely wrong 403 00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:48,439 Speaker 1: the day O was decided and has been overruled in 404 00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:52,520 Speaker 1: the court of history. Greg, will this court decision stay? 405 00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:55,480 Speaker 1: Will it stick? Or is there room to move here 406 00:24:55,480 --> 00:24:57,680 Speaker 1: where it will be overruled? And we're looking at Noah 407 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,919 Speaker 1: Feldman's classic book on a tumultu was Court of another 408 00:25:00,960 --> 00:25:04,480 Speaker 1: Time scorpions. What's gonna happen two years, Greg, five years 409 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 1: down the road. Well, it looks like, at least with 410 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: this court, it certainly has some staying power. Tom. The 411 00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,159 Speaker 1: majority really didn't seem like it had that much trouble 412 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,520 Speaker 1: with this case. It basically Chief Justice Roberts and the 413 00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,560 Speaker 1: other Conservatives looked at the federal immigration laws. They said, 414 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,280 Speaker 1: they give the president a very broad discretion to limit 415 00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,920 Speaker 1: who can come into the country. Uh, And they said, 416 00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,480 Speaker 1: when we're talking about a claim that he's violated the Constitution, 417 00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:33,360 Speaker 1: we're not going to deeply second guess his national security judgments. Here, 418 00:25:33,400 --> 00:25:36,040 Speaker 1: they had a legitimate national security interest and that was 419 00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:39,000 Speaker 1: enough for them. Let's look at Cass Sunstein. Now, of 420 00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:42,320 Speaker 1: course Out of Chicago is wonderful recent book on impeachment. 421 00:25:42,560 --> 00:25:45,600 Speaker 1: Here's Cass Sunstein on the ninety two pages, the multiple 422 00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,680 Speaker 1: diverse opinions extending to ninety two pages. Chief Justice Roberts 423 00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 1: repudiated Karamatsu. Special Fan Toldness Justice Kennedy's words are pathetic, 424 00:25:55,600 --> 00:25:59,200 Speaker 1: and then I thought this was fascinating. Greg Justice Briar's 425 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 1: quiet bit meant to reason giving and the rule of law. 426 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 1: It was has a claim to stand among the most 427 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 1: distinguished descending opinions and the history of the Supreme Court. 428 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 1: What did the quiet Briar? What did he say? Well, interestingly, 429 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,359 Speaker 1: so there were two descents. One was from Justice so 430 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:19,600 Speaker 1: somebody or who invoked invoked Kamatsu and said the opinion 431 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,440 Speaker 1: was a lot like Kamatsu. And then there was Justice 432 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,760 Speaker 1: Brier who was focused on a lot of the practicalities 433 00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: of this, and he said the biggest problem he had 434 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:31,640 Speaker 1: or a big problem he had was that the system 435 00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,399 Speaker 1: is supposed to have an ability to get case by 436 00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:38,480 Speaker 1: case waivers for people who don't have any opposing the 437 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 1: national security threat, who have an urgent need to get 438 00:26:41,720 --> 00:26:43,960 Speaker 1: into the country for medical care or something like that. 439 00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 1: And he said, it's not clear to me that system 440 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:50,400 Speaker 1: is working, that anybody has given guidance to consular officers 441 00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 1: on how to let people apply for case by case waivers. 442 00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,439 Speaker 1: And so what he really wanted to do was to 443 00:26:56,840 --> 00:26:58,680 Speaker 1: kick the case back to the lower court and say, 444 00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,400 Speaker 1: let's make sure this is this the actually works. Will 445 00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,840 Speaker 1: that happen to me? The essence of this transaction, this 446 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,240 Speaker 1: legal moment, do you know, go back to Roe v. 447 00:27:07,359 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: Wade seventy three or Brown decades before. That is what 448 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:17,000 Speaker 1: happens greg operationally tomorrow or in two thousand twenty two, 449 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:22,640 Speaker 1: off of Trump v. Hoi operationally, what happens well, the operationally, 450 00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,080 Speaker 1: the administration has very very broad discretion. Um. You know, 451 00:27:26,200 --> 00:27:28,880 Speaker 1: Justice Brier, who's often a bridge builder on the court. 452 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,560 Speaker 1: He and Justice Kagan, who joined his opinion, are two 453 00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,600 Speaker 1: of the justices who try to look for ways to 454 00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:37,240 Speaker 1: compromise and bring in some of their conservative colleagues. But 455 00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:41,200 Speaker 1: they didn't. The majority opinion, as I said, it says 456 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:44,399 Speaker 1: the president has very broad discretion, and they were willing 457 00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:46,440 Speaker 1: to take that step. That Justice Brier said, they weren't 458 00:27:46,480 --> 00:27:49,720 Speaker 1: willing to force the administration to come back and defend 459 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 1: itself in terms of how it's allowing those individual waivers. 460 00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,199 Speaker 1: Greg is, is there are we hearing that actually President 461 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:02,760 Speaker 1: Trump may add more countries to his band. So so 462 00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:05,440 Speaker 1: it is within his power to do that. That's that's 463 00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,880 Speaker 1: part of and to take countries off. They've already taken 464 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,840 Speaker 1: chat off the list at an earlier phase, and that 465 00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,880 Speaker 1: was part of the selling point for the president that, um, 466 00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,320 Speaker 1: this is not a rigid band. It is, however, an 467 00:28:15,359 --> 00:28:19,479 Speaker 1: indefinite band. It doesn't disappear unless the President takes an 468 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:24,080 Speaker 1: active step. Um, you know, this opinion certainly has the 469 00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,719 Speaker 1: potential to emboldenly the White House and the President on 470 00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:32,960 Speaker 1: all sorts of immigration matters and border matters. And so 471 00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:34,800 Speaker 1: if he looked at this opinion and said I have 472 00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,720 Speaker 1: the power to add additional countries, uh, he would probably 473 00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:42,040 Speaker 1: have some some legal justification. Greg Axios. Mike Allen just 474 00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:44,920 Speaker 1: published his seconds ago at Axios, and he calls it 475 00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 1: polarization nation and notes in the primaries last night, the 476 00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,560 Speaker 1: liberals did well. We just heard from Kevin sit really 477 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 1: on that what is the significance in the Greg Store 478 00:28:55,400 --> 00:29:01,080 Speaker 1: world to a six three court Kennedy retires? Whatever President 479 00:29:01,120 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 1: Trump does another course, It's fine, I get that. What's 480 00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,840 Speaker 1: the what's for you the distinction of going from five 481 00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:12,440 Speaker 1: four to a six three? Ish? Feel well, it certainly 482 00:29:12,520 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 1: solidifies and extends the conservative majority. Um, there are issues 483 00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,000 Speaker 1: that we didn't see them in this term. There are 484 00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,160 Speaker 1: a significant number of issues where Justice Kennedy sides with 485 00:29:21,160 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 1: the liberals. Abortion rights is certainly one of those. Gay 486 00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:27,400 Speaker 1: rights is certainly one of those. Those precedents would suddenly 487 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:29,400 Speaker 1: be in jeopardy. Roe v. Wade would certainly be in 488 00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:33,360 Speaker 1: jeopardy if if uh President Trump got to nominate a 489 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:37,560 Speaker 1: successor to Justice Kennedy, And Um, you know this would 490 00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:40,000 Speaker 1: be a conservative majority. That would you know, in all 491 00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: likelihood be here as far as the eye can see, 492 00:29:42,880 --> 00:29:45,880 Speaker 1: there's not a whole lot of obvious potential for there 493 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,160 Speaker 1: to be a chance for liberals to shift the court back. 494 00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:51,080 Speaker 1: Reg Store, thank you so much, greatly appreciate the early 495 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,480 Speaker 1: morning activity. He was working all night of course, on 496 00:29:53,520 --> 00:30:04,640 Speaker 1: this historic ruling, Trump the lie MM. Thanks for listening 497 00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:09,240 Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews 498 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:14,480 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. 499 00:30:15,040 --> 00:30:18,400 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene before the podcast. You 500 00:30:18,400 --> 00:30:21,800 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio