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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today

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Speaker 1: is our week ten Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Milman,

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Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming

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Speaker 1: off of a three and two week in our contest.

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Speaker 1: We reviewed that extensively, at least the first three games

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Speaker 1: in our Sunday Night recap episode. Since we did have

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Speaker 1: contest plays on the Bengals on Sunday Night Football the

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Speaker 1: Jets on Monday Night Football for posterity. We went one

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Speaker 1: and one in those plays. Those were our foxhol the

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Speaker 1: Bengals and our Big Balls the Jets bets of the week.

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Speaker 1: As we said on the show on Sunday, a lot

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Speaker 1: of the lines we liked to have already moved, which

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Speaker 1: is why you need to listen to the Sunday Shoh

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Speaker 1: if you want to get the best of the number.

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Speaker 1: Today we will get to our Simon says and our

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Speaker 1: exec decision. This episode will look at the entire board

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Speaker 1: as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll enter

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Speaker 1: in the Favorites podcast one hundred thousand dollars per football

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Speaker 1: Pick Them contest still open for sign up still free

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Speaker 1: to play, still awarding weekly and season long cash prizes

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Speaker 1: at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Halfway through the season, Simon,

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Speaker 1: you and I are now we in one hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty second place in our contest. We are inside the

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Speaker 1: top one point three percent. Time to bring in my

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Speaker 1: co host, my bff, my companion, Mike and Padre professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon the Hunter, Simon Simon, we had a winning

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Speaker 1: week last week. As I said to a buddy, I

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Speaker 1: was emailing with a buddy three and two, three and two,

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Speaker 1: three and two. Next thing you know, eighteen weeks later,

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Speaker 1: you're up eighteen units. I'll say it was our hardest,

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Speaker 1: most contentious week of the year. I feel like we

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Speaker 1: are lucky to have gotten out of it at three

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Speaker 1: and two, especially since our anchor leg was that Jets game.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think Action newk just retweeted this. The Jets

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Speaker 2: the only NFL team the Super Bowl era to have

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Speaker 2: their defense collect five plus sex, hold their appunt under

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Speaker 2: two hundred yards, not allow any play of twenty five

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Speaker 2: yards or more, and lose the game by twenty plus points.

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Speaker 2: So that's just the breaks Jet. We bet ugly teams

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Speaker 2: doesn't break our way The painful part is whenever we

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Speaker 2: leave two plays out and they both win, the odds

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Speaker 2: are stacked against us. So we left the Eagles and

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Speaker 2: the Raiders out both covered. That's always scary where it's

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Speaker 2: just like you know you're not gonna hit win them all.

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Speaker 2: When you leave leave out a couple of those plays,

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Speaker 2: it asially comes back and bites you. And I'm with you,

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Speaker 2: Like three and two feels good to get there. We

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Speaker 2: nailed that Bengals game. Jets game not so much.

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Speaker 1: I think at the end of the day, I still

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Speaker 1: would have made that play. Again, Like, looking at that game,

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Speaker 1: their defense is so freaking good. If Zach Wilson can

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Speaker 1: make one forward play instead of one backwards play in

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Speaker 1: a couple of times in the first half, in the

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Speaker 1: second half combined, yeah, it's a different conversation. Right, So,

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Speaker 1: you know, I think.

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Speaker 2: Could have got Josh Dobbs for a six round pick,

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Speaker 2: but they decided to roll with Zach Wilson. I'd be

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Speaker 2: pretty pissed off right now if I was a Jets fan.

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Speaker 1: Soon after this show, Simon, Matt Mitchell and I Matt

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Speaker 1: Mitchell from Milwaukee, Me from New York City. From JFK.

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Speaker 1: We will be getting on planes to visit to visit

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Speaker 1: our Danish overlords in Copenhagen, where we will record our

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Speaker 1: Thursday show. Matt Mitchell and I will be recording the

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Speaker 1: show together from Copenhagen. The last time we recorded the

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Speaker 1: show together might have been in Louisville, Kentucky at this

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Speaker 1: time last year. As a reminder, the favorite podcast presented

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Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms. Conditions and restrictions apply

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, Producer Tito would like us to say,

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Speaker 1: catch every episode of the Favorites live on YouTube. So

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Speaker 1: for those enjoying on YouTube, give us a like subscribe

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network YouTube pay which boy, oh boy,

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Speaker 1: this is a crazy, crazy week we got coming up.

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Speaker 1: One more update. Here's the Week nine winners roundup from

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Speaker 1: the Favorites contest. We had sixty two entries finish five

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Speaker 1: and oh that's just one point four percent of entries.

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Speaker 1: Congrats to our first place winner, Sood Productions. This week's

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Speaker 1: Producer Couple of Ward goes to dog Jimbo for finishing

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Speaker 1: dead fucking last and the Week nine contests going on

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Speaker 1: to five, missing the tiebreaker by two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: four yards. Dog Jimbo, please email producer Matt Mitchell at

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Speaker 1: podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim your non cash prize.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for playing. Week ten contest is live tiebreaker total

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Speaker 1: passing yards on Monday Night Football. All right, justin, justin

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Speaker 1: Herbert one of our passing yardage futures twenty five to one.

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Speaker 1: Pretty much dead. Tyreek Hill leading the league in receiving yards,

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Speaker 1: but barely hanging out against a streaking AJ Brown. He's

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Speaker 1: we got him at nine to one. Jalen Carter had

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Speaker 1: another half sack on Sunday against Dallas, still minus money

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Speaker 1: to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, Simon. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to week ten. Okay, Thursday Night football, Carolina visiting Chicago.

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Speaker 1: Chicago is a three and a half point underdog. This

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Speaker 1: one feels kind of strange to me. I will say

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Speaker 1: the total is forty prime time unders twenty two and

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Speaker 1: seven one sixty one one O two and three since

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Speaker 1: twenty nineteen. Another prime time under last night, actually twenty

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Speaker 1: three and seven because I forgot to update from last night,

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Speaker 1: so three prime time unders this weekend. The Bears should

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Speaker 1: have beaten New Orleans outright Like the Bears had five turnovers,

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Speaker 1: New Orleans still only won by seven. Bryce Young throws

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Speaker 1: two pick six's, which were the difference in the game.

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Speaker 1: We like Caroline a lot. On Sunday, I think it

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Speaker 1: was the right side. They dominated that game. More total yards,

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Speaker 1: more total plays, more yards per play, more rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: India was truly terrible. What do we want to do here?

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Speaker 1: Just bet the under? Move on?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, a bit of a weird line though, right doesn't

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Speaker 2: it feel like a justin fields line. It feels like

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Speaker 2: a justin Fields line.

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Speaker 1: It feels, well, why do you say justin fields line?

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Speaker 1: Because the Bears are three and a half point dogs?

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Speaker 1: Like if if we knew field.

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Speaker 2: Was no, no, no, Bears are favorites. Yeah yeah, oh

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Speaker 2: they are. Yeah, nothing changed. I think they've been favorites,

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Speaker 2: haven't that? But they're minus three and a half.

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Speaker 1: All right, the shit, I guess I wrote down wrong.

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Speaker 1: That's weird.

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Speaker 2: Weird. Yeah, it's a game where you know, I'm just

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Speaker 2: going to be happy to take Carolina and I'm happy

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Speaker 2: to take the under. A lot of conversation about when

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Speaker 2: the books are going to adjust to this trend and

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Speaker 2: when they're going to catch you know, us betting these unders.

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Speaker 2: As long as the money keeps coming in late on

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Speaker 2: the over, I'm really not too worried about the books

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Speaker 2: catching up to us. I mean that number last night

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Speaker 2: moved from I believe thirty nine and closed at forty one,

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Speaker 2: and a lot of books by kickoff, Like that's what

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Speaker 2: keeps happening people, I'm telling you, like, you might think

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Speaker 2: everyone's on the under because on the app, and you know,

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Speaker 2: in the action app it says, you know, all the

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Speaker 2: money all the ticket is on the under in that

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Speaker 2: last hour. So much money always comes in on the over.

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Speaker 2: It's either people thinking they're smarter than ever all of

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Speaker 2: us and they're like, you know what we're doing for

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Speaker 2: an over? They come in on it, and then Joe

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Speaker 2: Public comes in on it. So right now, yeah, all

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Speaker 2: the bets, all the money is on the under. It'll

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Speaker 2: probably flip when it gets closer to it. I have

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Speaker 2: to just do it. I have to tick Caroline. I

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Speaker 2: have to stick the under. And it's a it's just

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Speaker 2: a bet on if it is fields. He hasn't played

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Speaker 2: a competitive football game and over a month, you expect

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Speaker 2: the guy who's not been the most accurate quarterback in

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Speaker 2: football to continue to be rusty coming back from an injury.

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Speaker 2: And on the Panthers side, I just I don't have

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Speaker 2: a model that can predict Bryce Young throwing pick sixes.

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Speaker 2: I wish I did. Me and Chat would be on

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Speaker 2: an island together if I did. But we assume you

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Speaker 2: won't have back to back weeks throwing pick sixes. So

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Speaker 2: if Brice can protect the ball, the Panthers will be

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Speaker 2: able to move the ball. I mean yea. Honestly, the

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Speaker 2: craziest thing craziest takeaway from that Saints game was how

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Speaker 2: good sweat was for you guys like that dude on

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Speaker 2: running plays, rushing the pass or sweat was it stood

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Speaker 2: out how good sweat is to your defense the Bears defense. Now,

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Speaker 2: you could say, well, that was just one game, don't

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Speaker 2: take too much from it, but that's a big deal

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Speaker 2: to me. You guys had no pulse on that d line.

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Speaker 2: A team could run it, they could pass it, they

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Speaker 2: could do whatever they want because they don't have to

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Speaker 2: really worry about a pass rush or your run defense.

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Speaker 2: So maybe I need to adjust more that sweat is

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Speaker 2: now in the Bears defense. But I still think teams

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Speaker 2: will be able to run the ball, and that's what

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Speaker 2: Carolina wants to do. So three and a half it

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Speaker 2: feels a little boring taken, but the fact that no

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Speaker 2: one really will on this Carolina team, right, everyone's just

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Speaker 2: off this stink like they just look so bad this week.

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Speaker 2: It's hard to avoid this number. Chen, I kind of

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Speaker 2: have to take it.

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Speaker 1: No, I agree, three and a half is totally this

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Speaker 1: side to me because Carolina they outplayed Indie last week

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Speaker 1: and it's like watching the Jets, right. Zach Wilson makes

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Speaker 1: horrific plays, but the rest of the team is playing

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Speaker 1: incredibly well. Yeah, and that's the difference maker, and that

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Speaker 1: this is what professional betters do. By the way, forty

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Speaker 1: eight hours later, they look at the entirety of what

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Speaker 1: happened in the game, They look at every line item

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Speaker 1: of the box score, and they're like, wait a second,

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Speaker 1: this team dominated the other team. We're gonna if we're

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Speaker 1: gonna look at the final score and make our bets

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Speaker 1: base in the final score, then we're no better than

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Speaker 1: any other smuck. So yes, I agree with you, Indy

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Speaker 1: and New England. And this is the Frankfurt, Germany game,

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Speaker 1: one of those dreaded games where the Colts started as

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Speaker 1: a dog. They're now the favorite. That's a forty four

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Speaker 1: to eighty four against the spread trend since twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: Of course, the Colts were in the same spot last

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Speaker 1: week against Carolina started as started in that same position,

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Speaker 1: and it's swung they covered. I hate saying that the

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Speaker 1: value is now on the Pats. I'm so glad this

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Speaker 1: camp be in the contest. We've talked about the Pats

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Speaker 1: all season. I want to spend his little time talking

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Speaker 1: about this game as possible.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it feels like my gut instincts like you want

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Speaker 2: to take the Colts. Colts just had a bad game.

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Speaker 2: You expect them to bounce back offensively. You know, we

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Speaker 2: talked about the splits for Minshew. He's not that great

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Speaker 2: of a quarterback, right, I think I said going to

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Speaker 2: the last game in his last fourteen, three and eleven ats,

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Speaker 2: he's good and he's bad. He's good and he's bad.

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Speaker 2: That's just how Minshew is. That's why he's a backup

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Speaker 2: Mac Jones though, four and fifteen ats for my guy

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Speaker 2: Evan four and fifteen ats. So you know, I'll be

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Speaker 2: one of those people, admit, Like earlier this year, anytime

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Speaker 2: Mac was a dog with Belichick, it was like you

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Speaker 2: got to take this like you're getting Belichick as an underdog,

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Speaker 2: and that's that's born out. That's gone like that. That

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Speaker 2: mentality for me is totally gone. And I'm with you, Chad,

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Speaker 2: like I'm I'll probably end up on the culture. I'll

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Speaker 2: just pass on this one. I got no no itch

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Speaker 2: in my body to get in on this Colt. I

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Speaker 2: mean this Patriots team where Mac Jones just can't make

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Speaker 2: the throws and he doesn't have the talent around him either,

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Speaker 2: Like he has good running backs, but the receivers are

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Speaker 2: terrible and Mac is no better. So yeah, four and

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Speaker 2: fifteen ats as a dog Mac Jones, I just I

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Speaker 2: just can't do it.

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Speaker 1: All right, Let's get into the heart of it then,

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Speaker 1: because the Niners are visiting the Jags and Brock and

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Speaker 1: the Niners just had to buy he had been concussed. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they have been injured. After that Cowboys game, they've gone

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Speaker 1: into a tailspin. The Jags very sneaky six and two,

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Speaker 1: playing better since the London games. We talked about this

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night. We bet at a two and a half,

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Speaker 1: it moved up to three. You said it was your

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Speaker 1: first bet of the week. I don't know why anybody

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Speaker 1: wouldn't take this. With Jags at plus three, everything feels

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Speaker 1: like it's lining up in the right spot. Shanahan historically

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Speaker 1: not great as a favorite on the road. His teams

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Speaker 1: are much much better when there. The expectations are a

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Speaker 1: little bit lower, to be honest.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say I get it from the standpoint

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Speaker 2: of they've lost three straights. The four Nines have lost

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Speaker 2: three straight. They had a bye week. You assume they

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Speaker 2: come back and get right against this Jaguars team that

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Speaker 2: I mean, they're they're probably the second, what, the second

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Speaker 2: hottest team of football behind the Ravens. I mean, people

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Speaker 2: don't realize it because they just came off a bye week, but.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I mean. It's very sneaky that they're

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Speaker 1: six and two. Like the AFC South is becoming more

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Speaker 1: interesting because of the Texans, but they're like, slowly but

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Speaker 1: surely they started. They started badly. They've been winning games,

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Speaker 1: they've been winning ugly games. They haven't even reached their

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Speaker 1: peak and they're six and two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and honestly, you know that that Houston game is

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Speaker 2: probably their worst game of the year. They lost what

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Speaker 2: was it, seventeen thirty seven. They like they got dominated,

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Speaker 2: but if you go back and look, that was that

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Speaker 2: wonky game of you know, Taryl Larns can stop turned

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Speaker 2: the ball over. They got a kick return Houston by

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Speaker 2: I think like a fullback something crazy like that. And

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Speaker 2: you know, since then, they've been good, Like they beat Atlanta,

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Speaker 2: they beat Buffalo, they beat the Colts, they beat the Saints,

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Speaker 2: then they just beat Pittsburgh then they had a bye week.

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Speaker 2: That's my only fear here is it's just like, what

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Speaker 2: are we not seeing, Chad, because that's obviously professional money

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Speaker 2: that's made this go up to three now. But I'll

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Speaker 2: take the three if the public and a couple of

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Speaker 2: pros love the forty nine ers. And you know, Chad

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Speaker 2: just said it, like Shanahan, he's kind of a different

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Speaker 2: coach than at home as a favorite than he is

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Speaker 2: on the road as a favorite. And I'm not going

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Speaker 2: to make this, Simon says, as much as I want to,

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Speaker 2: just because this could keep going up, like it could

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Speaker 2: go up to three and a half, but we'll grab

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Speaker 2: the three just in case it does come down. But

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Speaker 2: it's crazy. All the early money I'm looking at right

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Speaker 2: now in the action app all the early money is

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Speaker 2: on the forty nine ers. So I don't know, it's

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Speaker 2: just I just can't stop thinking that party has concussion.

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Speaker 2: He's not going to be healed from it right away,

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Speaker 2: and since he's gotten his head wrong, like you know,

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Speaker 2: it's they've lost three straight games, and you can put

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Speaker 2: blame wherever you won in these games. At the end

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Speaker 2: of the day, it all fell onto Purty. Perty was

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Speaker 2: the one that kept turning the ball over. He's the

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Speaker 2: one that when the game was close, they needed winning drive.

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Speaker 2: He got making mistakes and the four nine ers could

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Speaker 2: have picked a better time to have that bye week, right,

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Speaker 2: they might be getting back Trent Williams, the best tackle

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Speaker 2: in football arguably and Deebo Samuel. So big, big deal,

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Speaker 2: big deal for that four nine ers team. It's don't

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Speaker 2: don't go crazy ben this one yet, people, but you

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Speaker 2: have to grab the three, Like if you listen to

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Speaker 2: the show, you know which we love Home Dogs. You

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Speaker 2: got it, Dote, you got to grab the plus three

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Speaker 2: here and Evan just putting our chat. It could be

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Speaker 2: windy and Jacksonville as well, which you know between these

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Speaker 2: two teams might be looking to the under like Jags

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Speaker 2: defense better than people get perceived. Forty nine Ers defense

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Speaker 2: not as bad as that people are perceiving right now. Right,

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Speaker 2: they've looked bad these last couple of weeks. You know,

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Speaker 2: they just had a tough stretch where they got diced

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Speaker 2: up by Kirk, they got diced up by uh, you know,

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Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, Like they just they've had a bad run here.

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Speaker 2: So the fact that it might be windy that actually

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Speaker 2: would help that forty nine ers defense.

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Speaker 1: Uh, this next game, we haven't talked about it, yet

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Speaker 1: Tennessee visiting Tampa Bay. This is a Mike Vrabel we

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Speaker 1: love you spot. They're off of a right, they're off

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Speaker 1: of a bad loss against a really good defense now

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Speaker 1: playing a team that is coached by basically the bizarro

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Speaker 1: Mike Rabel. If Mike Brabel, we love him because over

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Speaker 1: the past twenty years, he's one of the most profitable

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Speaker 1: coaches in the NFL. Todd Bowles. Todd Bowles the past

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Speaker 1: twenty years one hundred and forty three out of one

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty eight coaches. In terms of profitability against

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Speaker 1: the spread, he has one hundred and forty three out

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Speaker 1: of one hundred and forty eight. I mean, you know,

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Speaker 1: right now, we got Tennessee as a short road dog

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Speaker 1: plus one and a half. I got some other stats here,

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Speaker 1: but I want to get your take on what you

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Speaker 1: think of this because we didn't discuss it at all,

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Speaker 1: and I'm feeling like, how did we miss this? One

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Speaker 1: has a move, so we didn't miss anything, but we

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Speaker 1: just didn't bring it up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and initially I wanted to be on Titans. The

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Speaker 2: fear here is the Titans' only weakness on defense is

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Speaker 2: their secondary the only thing Tampa can do good is

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Speaker 2: give the ball on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and

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Speaker 2: you know, a little scary like you're trying to convince

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Speaker 2: me it back a rookie quarterback again on the road.

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Speaker 2: And I do agree, right, the Pittsburgh's defense is actually

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Speaker 2: legit compared to the Bucks defense, which looked like tissue paper. Right.

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Speaker 2: I mean, Houston went up and down the field at

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Speaker 2: will on this team, but they do have guys like

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Speaker 2: That's the hardest part here is they got guys on

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Speaker 2: this Tampa team that like they're playmakers. I know they

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Speaker 2: haven't shown up and they have a lot of holes

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Speaker 2: and Todd Bowles's defensive scheme is just trash. But it's hard.

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Speaker 2: I can't get there right now, Chad with you. Maybe

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Speaker 2: by Thursday, I'll get there on this Tennessee team. But

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Speaker 2: as we sit here right now, I don't know how

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Speaker 2: much I love Tennessee. In the spot.

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Speaker 1: Let me give you a couple more stats. You're not wrong.

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Speaker 1: They got guys. You're not wrong, rush D. This is

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Speaker 1: why I love you. I didn't even tell you what

351
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Speaker 1: I was going to want you to bring up so

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Speaker 1: I could get these stats in the Bucks defense is

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Speaker 1: getting exposed every single week. I know Vidave is back,

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Speaker 1: but they're rush D bottom five grade per Pro Football Focus.

355
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Speaker 1: They're past D bottom ten coverage, which has nothing to

356
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Speaker 1: do with vidavea bottom five. So they're going to get

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Speaker 1: a quarterback who likes to fling it almost blindly sometimes,

358
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Speaker 1: and every guy he tries to throw to might be open.

359
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Speaker 1: This will be like by the time we get to

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Speaker 1: the end of Thursday, like we're gonna have six or

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Speaker 1: seven games, and this will probably be one of the

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Speaker 1: games that is on that like.

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Speaker 2: Oh god, okay, you'll probably better convince me that. So,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I need more time on this one. I

365
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Speaker 2: just I just didn't know what to deal with it.

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Speaker 1: This is this is my my favorite game this week.

367
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Speaker 1: Cleveland and Baltimore. Baltimore is a six point favorite. I

368
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Speaker 1: loved it on Sunday. It was at five. I betted

369
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Speaker 1: at five, it moved up. I bet it again at six.

370
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Speaker 1: Give me the Cleveland Browns. My exact decision, the choice

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Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible?

372
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Speaker 2: Are you have your orders texting your numb execut have decision.

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Speaker 1: I feel like there should be four. It makes no

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Speaker 1: sense to me. Everything we can talk about, says, take

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Speaker 1: the underdog in a divisional game between two great defenses.

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Speaker 1: Don't I don't get this. You're a professional, better explain

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Speaker 1: it to me.

378
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Speaker 2: I did. I told you Sunday night why you should

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Speaker 2: have waited. It's it's the Deshaun Watson. It's just it's

380
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Speaker 2: unclear what the hell Deshaun Watson is. I don't know

381
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Speaker 2: if it's Deshaun Watson the old, which is a top

382
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Speaker 2: ten quarterback, or this is who Deshaun Watson is now,

383
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Speaker 2: which is a you know, top twenty, maybe number eighteen

384
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Speaker 2: quarterback in this league. He's just he's not what he

385
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Speaker 2: used to be. You'll have moments, these little these little

386
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Speaker 2: flashes of great throws and get it outside the pocket

387
00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,360
Speaker 2: and making good reads, and then you'll have these other

388
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Speaker 2: moments of just a guy that looks like at him

389
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Speaker 2: play competitive football in two years. It is tough for

390
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Speaker 2: me to get there, Chad, Like I, I mean, six

391
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Speaker 2: is such a key number. I'll probably get there now

392
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Speaker 2: with you on that number. But this feels like Seattle

393
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Speaker 2: over again, where it's just like you just take the

394
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Speaker 2: money line against the Ravens. Here like this feels like

395
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,280
Speaker 2: the Ravens will roll again, or they'll lose a close

396
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Speaker 2: one to Cleveland because Cleveland, like Chad said, they got

397
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Speaker 2: the defense for it right. We talked last time they

398
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Speaker 2: played the Browns, the way they structured this D line

399
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 2: was kind of shut down Lamar and Joe Burrow, these

400
00:22:22,440 --> 00:22:24,439
Speaker 2: guys who can move in the pocket. They wanted to

401
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 2: have really fast guys on the edges that could keep

402
00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 2: up with these guys if they do scramble. And you know,

403
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 2: the first time they played it was a total throwaway game.

404
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,680
Speaker 2: Cleveland had in that I think rookie who threw multiple

405
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:39,320
Speaker 2: picks and was just a complete disaster. I think it

406
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,399
Speaker 2: was twenty seven to three again early in the season.

407
00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:44,960
Speaker 2: I could be wrong, but they got smoked. I want

408
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,120
Speaker 2: to be there with you in Cleveland, like this is

409
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 2: a great defense. They know how big of a deal

410
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Speaker 2: this game is. Divisionally, it's huge. We say it every week,

411
00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,640
Speaker 2: but it's been true like this, this is peak, this

412
00:22:58,800 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 2: is peak on Lamar and this Ravens team. Like they've

413
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Speaker 2: been the best team the AFC through a couple of weeks.

414
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:07,760
Speaker 2: Usually me and you like coming on the other side.

415
00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: So I'll join you on the sixth chap. I'll tell

416
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 2: to everyone you can grab the six. But another game

417
00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,200
Speaker 2: that I think could keep going up just because all

418
00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,119
Speaker 2: the teasers, all the parlays will be tied to this

419
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Speaker 2: Ravens team.

420
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Speaker 1: Miles Garrett right now is dominant no matter what the position.

421
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 1: He is one of the one of the top five

422
00:23:28,680 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 1: most impactful players in football right now. He has the

423
00:23:32,760 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 1: best pass rush win rate in the NFL, the second

424
00:23:37,400 --> 00:23:41,400
Speaker 1: best run stop win rate. Essentially, this is the percent

425
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Speaker 1: of time in a game that this player impacts a play,

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Speaker 1: so basically, every single time he's on the field, he's

427
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Speaker 1: impacting the play. As a team, Cleveland is better at

428
00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:56,760
Speaker 1: pass rush win rate, run stop win rate offensively pass

429
00:23:56,840 --> 00:24:01,480
Speaker 1: block win rate just behind Baltimore run block win rate.

430
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,280
Speaker 1: The Browns are actually graded as the best pass rush

431
00:24:05,320 --> 00:24:08,240
Speaker 1: in the NFL. The Ravens are sixteenth. Ravens Rush D

432
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:14,480
Speaker 1: and Brown's rush OH are essentially even. Then there's this

433
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:20,520
Speaker 1: Harbaugh favorite of three and a half or more under

434
00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: five hundred against the spread five and fourteen the last

435
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,080
Speaker 1: three years. Lamar three and a half, three and a

436
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: half or more as a favorite twenty twenty nine, one

437
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty eighth of one hundred and seventy five

438
00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: quarterbacks against the spread the past twenty years, and then

439
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,440
Speaker 1: we refer to the stat a bunch this year. It's

440
00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:43,920
Speaker 1: my favorite stat this year. Home faves in the division

441
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:52,119
Speaker 1: since twenty fifteen forty five percent against the spread. This

442
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: one just like it could go up. You're right, it

443
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 1: could totally go up, and maybe it will. And I'm

444
00:24:57,119 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: just I'm gonna do the Simon Hunter play. I believe

445
00:25:02,160 --> 00:25:04,760
Speaker 1: in the game it goes up, I'm getting a better number,

446
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 1: just gonna better it again, and it'll end up being

447
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: my entire bank bro for the year, because this game

448
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: will keep going up and I'll lose it all on

449
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: the Cleveland fucking Browns. It'll be another mistake I get

450
00:25:18,240 --> 00:25:21,680
Speaker 1: myself into because of the Cleveland Browns. But just doesn't

451
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:29,399
Speaker 1: make sense to me. Yeah, all right, Houston at Cincinnati.

452
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: I feel like you this is to me like the

453
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,720
Speaker 1: Cowboys and the Eagles were, Like, it feels a little

454
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,320
Speaker 1: square to you. You can't quite get there. You're gonna

455
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 1: get information that the wise guys are liking it for

456
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:45,159
Speaker 1: some reason, like this is where my tomfoolery and my

457
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:50,439
Speaker 1: sort of lack of vision might actually play to our benefit.

458
00:25:51,280 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I just get scared off of games I perceive

459
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 2: as coin flip games, and I do. I try my

460
00:25:56,800 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 2: best to avoid those type of games, like that Eagles game.

461
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 2: It was a win, but at the end of the day,

462
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:02,399
Speaker 2: it was a coin flip. It came down to a

463
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:04,119
Speaker 2: two pointer and we were on the right side of

464
00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 2: that two pointer. You know, that Houston and Bucks game

465
00:26:10,680 --> 00:26:14,000
Speaker 2: total coin flip game, and I couldn't avoid it because

466
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 2: the numbers didn't make sense, and we got lucky where

467
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 2: it worked out for us, because I just think, get

468
00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:19,879
Speaker 2: why it was two and a half. It was like

469
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:21,880
Speaker 2: everyone in the world was betting Houston. All the money

470
00:26:21,960 --> 00:26:24,560
Speaker 2: was coming on Houston, but the number one from three

471
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 2: on the Bucks down to two and a half. So

472
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 2: those are things I'm looking for where it's like if

473
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 2: I don't understand a game, I don't trust a number

474
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,800
Speaker 2: and I think it's a coin flip game, but the

475
00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 2: number of reverse moves and it's moving towards what I

476
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 2: think is gonna happen, which is obviously the book's covering.

477
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:40,119
Speaker 2: It's like, Okay, that gives me confidence. But on the

478
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: flip side, like that Jets game, I told you like

479
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 2: I did, not like I was just sitting at three

480
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 2: and a half. When when there's a game like that

481
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 2: and it's a public dog and it's a primetime public dog,

482
00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 2: those are things you look for. So it is tough

483
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,359
Speaker 2: where we do a show like here on Tuesday, just

484
00:26:55,400 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: like the Jets last week, we did the show Tuesday.

485
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 2: So I already had been betting since Sunday night. Bet

486
00:27:00,600 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 2: it Tuesday, bet it again, Wednesday, I bet it again,

487
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 2: Thursday better Friday, Saturday. Started losing confidence me and you

488
00:27:06,560 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 2: talk Sunday morning. I'm just like, I fucking hate this Jets.

489
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,440
Speaker 2: Pick what are we gonna do? I'm already heavily invested

490
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 2: in it. I promoted on multiple different shows we did,

491
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,320
Speaker 2: so yeah, that's the fir for me. Chat. It's like

492
00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: this week, Like I know, we said last week was tough.

493
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,400
Speaker 2: This week there's a couple of lines that really jump

494
00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 2: out where it's like that feels too good to be true.

495
00:27:25,600 --> 00:27:27,520
Speaker 2: And that's what this Browns number feels like like six

496
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,400
Speaker 2: Like you just said, way too many points this defense

497
00:27:30,400 --> 00:27:32,879
Speaker 2: to be getting. So definitely a weird line.

498
00:27:33,480 --> 00:27:36,160
Speaker 1: Let me have no fear enough for both of us

499
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,879
Speaker 1: Houston Houston at since y since he was a seven

500
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 1: point favorite. It's down to six and a half. Bets

501
00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 1: are coming in on Sincy, money's coming in on Houston. Look,

502
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,800
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow right now is nine to one to win

503
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 1: MVP after the Sunday night game. When October began, he

504
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 1: was fifty to one. Meanwhile, c J. Stroud is having

505
00:27:59,119 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: coming off the best for a rookie quarterback in history.

506
00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:06,360
Speaker 1: Since the defense is actually pretty middle of the road,

507
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:09,480
Speaker 1: just top five against the rush.

508
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:10,280
Speaker 2: C J.

509
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: Stroud is very good under pressure and that's because he

510
00:28:16,280 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: doesn't feel the pressure because he gets the ball away

511
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:23,280
Speaker 1: in two seconds, literally two seconds, which is just behind

512
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow and two of for quickest release in the NFL.

513
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion on this one. If I,

514
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 1: if I had been smart, I would have played Houston

515
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:34,680
Speaker 1: a plus seven. I didn't doesn't feel like a contest

516
00:28:34,680 --> 00:28:35,359
Speaker 1: play to me.

517
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:39,520
Speaker 2: I'm on the other side right now. I love Bengals.

518
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:45,440
Speaker 2: I love Bengals on the screen. You're getting to fade

519
00:28:45,560 --> 00:28:49,080
Speaker 2: a rookie off a historical performance. I know he's cool headed,

520
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:50,920
Speaker 2: like he's not gonna let us head get too big

521
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: from it, but it's gonna be a big difference going

522
00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 2: at home throwing up thrown against air. Now he's going

523
00:28:57,680 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 2: on the road to Cincy, playing against a legiti AFC contender.

524
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:03,959
Speaker 2: That's a reason this number is so big. That's why

525
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:05,800
Speaker 2: I like a couple people in message, why don't you

526
00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 2: guys talk about Houston at the seven. I just don't

527
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:09,760
Speaker 2: want anyone to bet it. I just I thought that

528
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 2: was a weird number in the first place. Even before

529
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:13,560
Speaker 2: the Bengals game, I thought to myself, that's just a

530
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,600
Speaker 2: weird number. They're hanging out there that you can grab

531
00:29:16,640 --> 00:29:19,520
Speaker 2: Houston before this game's even played at plus seven. I mean,

532
00:29:19,560 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 2: if that Bengalis said they had lost that game, what's

533
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 2: this dropped to four and a half? Most likely, like

534
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,120
Speaker 2: it just would have been a total overreaction by the public.

535
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,000
Speaker 2: And it feels like they're reacting on Houston right now,

536
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:33,200
Speaker 2: just the fact that they're just blindly betting this number

537
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 2: at what it's at. The question right now is what

538
00:29:39,720 --> 00:29:42,440
Speaker 2: is what is the difference between CJ at home than

539
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:44,600
Speaker 2: on the road? Right we've seen the splits. I think

540
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 2: I don't want could go look at the splits. He's

541
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:48,360
Speaker 2: a totally different quarterback at home than on the road.

542
00:29:49,080 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 2: You know, the previous week before last week, they lost

543
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 2: to the Panthers thirteen to fifteen on the road. Right,

544
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 2: struggled to struggle on the road. Let's go two weeks

545
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,160
Speaker 2: before that, he played in a lan Remember how bad

546
00:30:01,200 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 2: this Atlanta secondary is. This Atlanta secondary has given up

547
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:05,680
Speaker 2: all these yards at will Levis just gave up a

548
00:30:05,720 --> 00:30:08,680
Speaker 2: ton of yards of the dobbs. They lost nineteen to

549
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 2: twenty one to Atlanta on the road. And he just

550
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,360
Speaker 2: had a bad game as well, because why because he

551
00:30:13,400 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: struggled in the red zone. So I believe you're able

552
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 2: to move the ball, like you said, up and down

553
00:30:18,200 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 2: the field on sincey, but when they get in the

554
00:30:20,400 --> 00:30:23,280
Speaker 2: red zone, that's what since he's really good at this year.

555
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 2: And yeah, some of those early numbers on their defensive front,

556
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:31,240
Speaker 2: they were bad the first three four weeks defensively the

557
00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 2: Sincy team. So those numbers do make sense that they

558
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 2: don't project out as a great defense right now. But

559
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:39,680
Speaker 2: can we all say we've seen something different than these

560
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. I mean the way they played

561
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 2: against the forty nine ers, the way they played against

562
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. I mean Josh Allen. You could say he

563
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: had a bad game that game. I thought he played

564
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 2: really well. I just thought since he kept taking away

565
00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,800
Speaker 2: what he wanted to do, which they took away digs.

566
00:30:50,800 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 2: So yeah, here we go, another great staff from our guy,

567
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 2: Evan Stroud. Nine point three yards per attempt at home,

568
00:30:57,920 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 2: he's six point nine on the road. Oh that's that's

569
00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 2: a pretty big drop off on the yards he's getting

570
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 2: through the air passing. So not going to be suckering

571
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:07,880
Speaker 2: into this one. Like I got my first flance was like,

572
00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 2: take Houston. That's a huge number, too big. I'm gonna

573
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 2: go at the Bengals and I'll back them at six

574
00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 2: and a half. Here you know what Simon says, six

575
00:31:15,800 --> 00:31:16,600
Speaker 2: and a half Bengals.

576
00:31:17,280 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 3: When Simon says do it, we do what Simon's say.

577
00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: No, Wow, I can't believe it did it because I

578
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 2: wasn't Eve gonna do that. But I just I don't

579
00:31:26,680 --> 00:31:29,719
Speaker 2: feel confident about this one where it's just big splits.

580
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: I'm so glad you said that because in my notes

581
00:31:33,880 --> 00:31:38,280
Speaker 1: when I was researching the game yesterday, like I couldn't

582
00:31:38,400 --> 00:31:40,960
Speaker 1: like and it was seven, I couldn't get a sense

583
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: of where the inflation was, and I'm like, I think

584
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: it's Houston, But I'm not quite sure, and like because

585
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 1: you had so much like positivity from both sides.

586
00:31:50,680 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's hard.

587
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: So you're bringing clarity right now, and you're giving me

588
00:31:55,760 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 1: comfort to bet on the team that we think is

589
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:02,000
Speaker 1: better and is really playing like one of the two

590
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: or three best teams in the AFC, along with the

591
00:32:04,240 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 1: Ravens and the Chiefs. To bet on them as in

592
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:10,320
Speaker 1: your touchdown favorite and we're getting the half point different.

593
00:32:10,440 --> 00:32:15,400
Speaker 1: So you're calling it, You're putting your credibility behind it,

594
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: your authority, your genius. I fucking love that you just

595
00:32:19,040 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: made this, Simon says. I did not see this coming,

596
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:27,040
Speaker 1: didn't see it. Love this, Simon. I love when there's

597
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:32,520
Speaker 1: magic like that. You know where there's not magic New Orleans,

598
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:36,480
Speaker 1: it's just luck. This team another one. We talked about

599
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,640
Speaker 1: it on Sunday night. They're at Minnesota, the game open

600
00:32:39,680 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 1: at three, Minnesota plus three, down to two and a half.

601
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: We expected it to move in the Vikings direction. It did.

602
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: I mentioned earlier in the show when talking about the Bears,

603
00:32:50,240 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 1: how lucky the Saints got and all the stats are

604
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: in our direction. Here about how terrible car is as

605
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: a favorite. He did not cover against the Bears. They

606
00:33:01,800 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: needed five turnovers to win. I went back and counted

607
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: yesterday when I was doing my research. All of those

608
00:33:10,120 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 1: turnovers for the Bears were in Bears territory led to

609
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 1: ten points. Another was a miss Saints field goal, include

610
00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: a fourth down stop and a punt like they couldn't

611
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: convert anything. We've been talking about Derek Carr being better

612
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,760
Speaker 1: as he got closer to the goal line. That wasn't it.

613
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,680
Speaker 1: This team got very lucky to walk away from that

614
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 1: game with a win. So now we got Josh Dobbs.

615
00:33:41,640 --> 00:33:45,760
Speaker 1: There's always something weird about backup quarterbacks when they come in.

616
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 1: It flips the script on your bet, right because all

617
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:54,719
Speaker 1: of a sudden, like there's havoc that's being created in

618
00:33:54,800 --> 00:34:00,240
Speaker 1: weird ways that a team has to defend against. Jobs

619
00:34:00,280 --> 00:34:02,120
Speaker 1: doesn't have that this week. He might just go back

620
00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: to being Josh Jobs from the Cardinals. So I don't

621
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:07,520
Speaker 1: really have a strong opinion on this game.

622
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:11,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, another game where it feels like we're able to

623
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:14,160
Speaker 2: buy low on the Saints team. I think most people

624
00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:16,400
Speaker 2: perceive what you just said, which is like the Saints

625
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,720
Speaker 2: got pretty lucky. They didn't play that good last week,

626
00:34:19,080 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 2: which is true, Like they didn't play that great. How

627
00:34:24,320 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 2: only reason I want to back the Vikings because it's

628
00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 2: a fun story. It's a fun team, but the numbers

629
00:34:29,000 --> 00:34:31,160
Speaker 2: move too much. The value is now on the Saints.

630
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 2: You're getting a better team under three playing against you know,

631
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,680
Speaker 2: a team's backup. They just brought in like they're gonna

632
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,719
Speaker 2: see the tape. The tape will be pretty simple. It's

633
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 2: like if you can stop you can stop Dobbs from

634
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: you know, running outside the pocket and picking up first downs.

635
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,040
Speaker 2: They're dead like the guy. The guy only knew when

636
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 2: when If you go back and watch a film when

637
00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 2: they would run routes, they basically only had five plays

638
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:58,280
Speaker 2: to run. They must have went to them and said,

639
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 2: what are the five plays? You know? And they just

640
00:35:00,719 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 2: ran those five plays. It's I'm with everyone, it's such

641
00:35:05,800 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 2: a fun story, but I need to like be the

642
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 2: professional game that I am and take the value here.

643
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:12,799
Speaker 2: The value is the Saints. Like their defense is good.

644
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,239
Speaker 2: They're what I talked about the Derek Carr in the

645
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: red zones are real thing, but they're kind of neutralizing

646
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,919
Speaker 2: that with the Taysom Hill aspect. Like Taysom Hill came in,

647
00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 2: what do he do he? I think he ran for

648
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 2: a touchdown and he received a touchdown. I think my guy, uh,

649
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:35,640
Speaker 2: I think it was. Chris Raymond said that since week

650
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: like three, Taysom Hill is tied with Travis Kelcey's number

651
00:35:39,360 --> 00:35:42,960
Speaker 2: one tight end in fantasy football. So it's a thing

652
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 2: where they're just been using him like they started. They started.

653
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 2: They started the season, I really using Taysom Hill, and

654
00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,359
Speaker 2: the season has gone on here they've kind of figured

655
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 2: out how to use him. So Vikings, they were being

656
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 2: held up by Kirk Cousins, right. We talked all year

657
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,480
Speaker 2: like they have a bad defense. They're the one that

658
00:35:59,760 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 2: most blitz heavy defense in all football because they have

659
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,960
Speaker 2: no talent. And Leslie Frazier just knows, I just got

660
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:06,879
Speaker 2: a blitz like I don't have the dudes to cover.

661
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 2: We gotta get pressure on the quarterback, rush to the

662
00:36:08,920 --> 00:36:12,600
Speaker 2: quarterback being lost in the shufflers. Heindekee put up what

663
00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 2: twenty eight points against this defense and this Vikings team.

664
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:19,880
Speaker 2: It's hard for me not to want to back the

665
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 2: Saints here. And another staff from our guy, Evan Dobbs,

666
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:25,879
Speaker 2: is one and nine straight up as a starter. Chat.

667
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: So if this number keeps moving, if this dips between

668
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:31,759
Speaker 2: one and a half. This might not being one of

669
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,560
Speaker 2: my biggest bets of the week. I'm gonna hate myself

670
00:36:33,600 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: putting this much money on Derek Carr, but it's just

671
00:36:36,080 --> 00:36:37,600
Speaker 2: that's the way the line's moving people.

672
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,719
Speaker 1: You know what's funny is sometimes I'm taking notes while

673
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: we're doing the podcast so I can refer to it

674
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:46,160
Speaker 1: on Thursday and then on Sunday and our conversations about

675
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:49,680
Speaker 1: what we're going to put in there. Sometimes we start

676
00:36:49,680 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 1: talking about a game and you say you like it,

677
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:54,839
Speaker 1: and I'm like, I'm not even gonna write that one down.

678
00:36:55,200 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 1: And then as it goes along, that's fair. And then

679
00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 1: as it goes along, like I hear you talking about

680
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 1: it more and more, I'm like, oh fuck, he loves me.

681
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 3: I know.

682
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,520
Speaker 2: That's that's how I feel. That's how I feel.

683
00:37:06,239 --> 00:37:10,959
Speaker 1: And then you just you just told me it will

684
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 1: move down. It will end up being one of your

685
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 1: biggest bets of the week. We will have to put

686
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: it in the contest. And it's making me sick because

687
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 1: now I just started adding up like the contest is

688
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 1: going to be. It'll end up being the fucking Jags

689
00:37:22,920 --> 00:37:25,800
Speaker 1: plus three, the Titans plus one, and a half Saints

690
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:28,759
Speaker 1: the Saints, like it'll get down to minus one and

691
00:37:28,760 --> 00:37:31,840
Speaker 1: a half, Like, oh my god, it's gonna be fucking terrible.

692
00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:32,960
Speaker 2: By the way, that's.

693
00:37:34,320 --> 00:37:38,280
Speaker 1: That's right, producer Tito reporting in the chat, the Rams

694
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 1: are signing Carson Wentz.

695
00:37:40,560 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: My my old, my old hero. I still love, still

696
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:46,600
Speaker 2: have his jersey, never burned it. Thank you Carson Wentz

697
00:37:46,600 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 2: for my Super Bowl and I'm happy for him going

698
00:37:48,480 --> 00:37:50,680
Speaker 2: the Rams. Maybe I'll have that Baker bump Baker went

699
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 2: to the RAMS completely helped him re energize and relearn

700
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:58,960
Speaker 2: football with McVeigh and hope. Nothing the best for Wentz,

701
00:37:59,040 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 2: but pretty horrible, pretty horrible for me as someone that

702
00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:06,080
Speaker 2: has a decent amount of money on Rams over six

703
00:38:06,160 --> 00:38:09,800
Speaker 2: and a half wins. This might mean Stafford's out for

704
00:38:09,840 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 2: a little while, which is just not what I wanted

705
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: to hear. So hopefully this is a signing just to

706
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 2: be the backup, not to come in and be like

707
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:17,799
Speaker 2: a starter for the next four weeks.

708
00:38:18,239 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 1: Well, it's appropriate that Tito gave us the news because,

709
00:38:20,880 --> 00:38:23,760
Speaker 1: as a reminder for the second time, catch every episode

710
00:38:23,760 --> 00:38:28,200
Speaker 1: of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,

711
00:38:28,239 --> 00:38:30,360
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

712
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:35,080
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. Okay, next game up, green

713
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,439
Speaker 1: Bay at Pittsburg. I was gonna say pitt but that's

714
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 1: not really how they say it. Green Bay at Pittsburgh.

715
00:38:40,960 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 1: The Steelers are three point favorites, not a spot that

716
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 1: we tend to like. Backing Mike Tomlin, you talked about

717
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,400
Speaker 1: this on Sunday. You liked it at two and a half,

718
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,760
Speaker 1: you liked it at three. I was hesitant. Came around

719
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:57,120
Speaker 1: it started to make sense. Jordan Love is terrible. He's

720
00:38:57,160 --> 00:38:59,200
Speaker 1: not even getting blitzed that often but still has one

721
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 1: of the highest throw percentages in the league.

722
00:39:02,320 --> 00:39:03,759
Speaker 2: Horrible, horrible.

723
00:39:04,840 --> 00:39:08,640
Speaker 1: We really don't like Tomlin when he's not a dog.

724
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 3: I try to keep it real simple. Football is our game.

725
00:39:12,600 --> 00:39:15,839
Speaker 3: Our business is winning. There's a business component of this thing.

726
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 3: And when we win, into business is being handled and

727
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 3: when you not is not.

728
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 1: And then Simon, I don't know if you saw this

729
00:39:22,800 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 1: or not in Slack in our luck Rankings channel, Nick Giffin,

730
00:39:29,239 --> 00:39:34,640
Speaker 1: let us know this is a massive luck rankings game

731
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: in favor of the Packers.

732
00:39:38,040 --> 00:39:39,840
Speaker 2: Damn it, I know it.

733
00:39:39,920 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: Actually, Like there's very few stats and trends we do.

734
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:47,280
Speaker 1: There's a couple that, like I believe in more than others,

735
00:39:48,120 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 1: like the divisional game that I just talked about with

736
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 1: the Browns, Like I believe in that, right, I truly

737
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: believe that is a real signal in the noise. Luck

738
00:39:57,080 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 1: rankings to me are a signal in the noise because

739
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:03,879
Speaker 1: we don't do them haphazardly. We only talk about them

740
00:40:03,920 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: when there's real meaning and real delta that can be

741
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:10,319
Speaker 1: of value to people. So this fucking kills me because

742
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:11,800
Speaker 1: I know we're both on Pittsburgh at two and a

743
00:40:11,800 --> 00:40:12,319
Speaker 1: half and three.

744
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's things to where it's like, if you

745
00:40:16,520 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 2: want to just play the lazy way, you just take

746
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh and the Green Bay under first half, Like both

747
00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:26,600
Speaker 2: these teams apparently are the worst. I have to check

748
00:40:26,640 --> 00:40:28,640
Speaker 2: it again, but I'm almost positive. Before I came on

749
00:40:28,760 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 2: my notes, I had it as both bottom five and

750
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 2: points scored in the first half, Like these are just

751
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 2: two teams. And we joked about the Steelers, how many

752
00:40:37,680 --> 00:40:39,160
Speaker 2: games did they look dead in the first half and

753
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:41,799
Speaker 2: then somehow win coming out in that second half, And

754
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 2: they've had a bunch of games that way this year.

755
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:48,640
Speaker 2: Green Bay is a dead all game, I mean that

756
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,880
Speaker 2: Rams game. They were begging to lose that game in

757
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,880
Speaker 2: every way possible. And even though the Rams are banged up,

758
00:40:55,920 --> 00:41:01,560
Speaker 2: even defensively, Green Bay couldn't do anything offensively. They're just bad.

759
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 2: Like and as much I want to put it on

760
00:41:03,640 --> 00:41:07,160
Speaker 2: Jordan of Love that he's so bad as well, it

761
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:09,680
Speaker 2: has to follow on the coaches as well. Right, are

762
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:11,400
Speaker 2: they really putting him in the best positions? And if

763
00:41:11,400 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: they are, then yeah, he's a complete flop. And I'm

764
00:41:15,239 --> 00:41:17,040
Speaker 2: assuming they'll move on from them after this year or

765
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:21,480
Speaker 2: maybe next year. But uh, I'm with you, Chad, Like

766
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,520
Speaker 2: I'd feel more confident if more books were shown this

767
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 2: at three and a half, Like that would make me

768
00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 2: feel good because that's like, Okay, at least we got

769
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 2: the best number two and a half. At least we

770
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:31,680
Speaker 2: got the good number at three. A couple of books

771
00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 2: have shown the three and a half and then they

772
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:36,440
Speaker 2: come back down to the three. You know, maybe we'll

773
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 2: get there by Sunday. Like people know I'm gonna be better.

774
00:41:38,800 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 2: I'm investing in this one. I'm gonna be invested in Pittsburgh.

775
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:42,960
Speaker 2: I'll be taking Pittsburgh in this game. As long as

776
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 2: that three two and a half. I'm gonna be back

777
00:41:45,320 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 2: in Pittsburgh this number. But I'm definitely with you, like

778
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,360
Speaker 2: the splits, the trends with Tomlin as a favorite, not great,

779
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 2: not don't give me as confident as we get when

780
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 2: we take him as a dog. So definitely something to

781
00:41:57,640 --> 00:42:00,680
Speaker 2: be weary of. But another game one Thursday. If I

782
00:42:00,800 --> 00:42:03,279
Speaker 2: come in here and I have more confidence that it

783
00:42:03,320 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 2: just means I know that there's other pro groups coming

784
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:07,680
Speaker 2: in on this Pittsburgh team with me, But right now

785
00:42:08,160 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 2: it feels like it's just me on Pittsburgh. So a

786
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 2: little scary.

787
00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: All right, Well, this one won't be in the contest

788
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:16,920
Speaker 1: as of yet. Right now, our five contest games, I'll

789
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: repeat Jags, Tennessee, Brown's, Bengals, New Orleans, Atlanta, Arizona. We

790
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,240
Speaker 1: talked about this one on Sunday too. We just decided

791
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,440
Speaker 1: we were taking a little bit, tiny, little little emy

792
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,880
Speaker 1: weenie taste of Arizona at plus two and a half.

793
00:42:35,120 --> 00:42:37,399
Speaker 1: If news came out that Kyler was going to come back.

794
00:42:37,400 --> 00:42:39,400
Speaker 1: He's been practicing in the past couple of weeks. They

795
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:43,760
Speaker 1: played Clayton Tune last week. I believe Kyler is playing

796
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:47,520
Speaker 1: on Sunday and this lion has now moved to one

797
00:42:47,560 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 1: and a half. Other than the fact I wanted to

798
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,280
Speaker 1: get the edge at the two and a half, I'm

799
00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 1: really and I barely bet it like half a unit,

800
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 1: and I put it in the app actually network app.

801
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,440
Speaker 1: I really have a strong opinion on this game, Like

802
00:42:59,480 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: to me, I wouldn't put it in the contest.

803
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:06,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm cool keeping it moving, like I'm with you,

804
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 2: Like I only got probably like a thousand bucks down.

805
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 2: It was freaking Sunday night, like the books aren't taking

806
00:43:10,680 --> 00:43:13,040
Speaker 2: much anyway, and we kind of made a bet just

807
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:14,600
Speaker 2: hoping that it would be Kyler and we would get

808
00:43:14,640 --> 00:43:17,680
Speaker 2: good value value on the line movement. No, it's great.

809
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 2: It's gone from two and a half down to one now,

810
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,280
Speaker 2: like yeah, that feels great, but it's it's for pennies.

811
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,359
Speaker 2: Like I'm not getting anything really out of this one.

812
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 2: So I'm with you, chat, I got no interest to

813
00:43:27,120 --> 00:43:28,000
Speaker 2: really betting this game.

814
00:43:28,400 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 1: Weird because I got down five times.

815
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 2: You must know a guy.

816
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 1: I know a guy Detroit at Los Angeles Chargers. We

817
00:43:37,640 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: talked about this one on Sunday night too. You bet

818
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: it immediately at minus one lions. You said you're back

819
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:47,480
Speaker 1: in the public road fave, and you said sometimes public

820
00:43:47,719 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 1: wins super Chalky, is there a number at which you

821
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: would not bet the Lions? Like to you, you still

822
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: like the note? You still like the bet.

823
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:04,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like the Chargers look broken and the Lions look

824
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,359
Speaker 2: like one of the class of the NFC. Like, uh,

825
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:12,400
Speaker 2: you know, they've had some brutal injuries. And I just

826
00:44:12,400 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 2: just before he came on the guy I really trust

827
00:44:14,440 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 2: when they're best beat writers and all Detroit said this

828
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,360
Speaker 2: is the healthiest this team's been all season. Like, I

829
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:22,520
Speaker 2: take that as a big deal, Like a guy that's

830
00:44:22,560 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 2: locked into this team, that means Montgomery's coming back. I

831
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:27,200
Speaker 2: don't know Montgommer's coming back. With this beat writer saying

832
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 2: that that, I'm assuming it means Montgomery's coming back, which

833
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:32,560
Speaker 2: if you look at the numbers this year, he's one

834
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:34,840
Speaker 2: of the best red zone running backs in all football.

835
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,560
Speaker 2: And that's a big deal to Detroit, a team that

836
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 2: you know, not that that's their bread and butter, but

837
00:44:42,040 --> 00:44:43,840
Speaker 2: they're a team that scores like they're a team that

838
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 2: really needs to put up points. And their defense has

839
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,480
Speaker 2: been better and they have made strides and you know,

840
00:44:49,760 --> 00:44:53,239
Speaker 2: we saw it with that Charters team they lost Williams,

841
00:44:53,480 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 2: they lost Palmer so two and really important receivers to Herbert.

842
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 2: So now that means all the focuses shifted to Keenan Allen.

843
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:04,040
Speaker 2: So defenses are doubling Keenan Allen. They could not be

844
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,680
Speaker 2: more happy to leave that rookie. What's the name Quinton Johnson,

845
00:45:07,440 --> 00:45:11,200
Speaker 2: the rookie receiver for the Chargers. I mean, that's a gift.

846
00:45:11,200 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 2: You can put that guy on one on one coverage

847
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 2: without a safety over top all game because he is bad.

848
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:18,360
Speaker 2: He's bad at running routes, he's bad at body of control,

849
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:22,000
Speaker 2: he's bad at hand placement. Total whift by the Chargers

850
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,840
Speaker 2: in a draft with wide receivers that really felt like

851
00:45:23,840 --> 00:45:25,760
Speaker 2: you really couldn't miss. There's a lot of good talent

852
00:45:26,040 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 2: in this draft class. They totally missed on this kid.

853
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:33,320
Speaker 2: So I mean, I'm looking at the app right now.

854
00:45:34,000 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 2: It's like the money, the tickets or something like that

855
00:45:38,960 --> 00:45:43,279
Speaker 2: is on Detroit. So if it stays that way, me

856
00:45:43,280 --> 00:45:45,680
Speaker 2: and Chad having this in our contest is about zero

857
00:45:45,719 --> 00:45:48,880
Speaker 2: percent chance. But I bet at the one and a half.

858
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,400
Speaker 2: I bet the one. I bet the two when he

859
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 2: got to two. Now that it's at two and a half,

860
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 2: I've kind of stopped, so maybe if this gets a

861
00:45:56,239 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 2: three and a half, I'll do a Chad Middleman play

862
00:45:59,080 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 2: and try to hit that middle But how do I

863
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:04,320
Speaker 2: not join the public here? The Lions just feel like

864
00:46:04,360 --> 00:46:09,360
Speaker 2: such a better team, and I don't see them sleepwalking

865
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 2: this game. I mean, I know they're coming off a bye,

866
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 2: but like, how do you not get fired up for

867
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:17,400
Speaker 2: this game? In La? Yeah, it's off one shad.

868
00:46:17,920 --> 00:46:20,160
Speaker 1: But what you just said is interesting to me because

869
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:23,280
Speaker 1: and by the way, this number is all over the board,

870
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 1: two and a half, two and a half, one and

871
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: a half, one and a half, Like it's it's everywhere

872
00:46:29,560 --> 00:46:34,760
Speaker 1: right now, what you just said is interesting. The Lions

873
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:36,600
Speaker 1: look like the one of the class of the NFC,

874
00:46:36,640 --> 00:46:39,399
Speaker 1: and the Chargers look broken. All the money is coming

875
00:46:39,400 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 1: in the Lions, Isn't that when we would normally bet

876
00:46:41,680 --> 00:46:42,680
Speaker 1: the Chargers.

877
00:46:44,360 --> 00:46:46,920
Speaker 2: It is if they had a true home field. That's like,

878
00:46:46,960 --> 00:46:49,520
Speaker 2: that's what breaks the rule here. It's not like this

879
00:46:49,680 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 2: is Lambeau or this is Dallas or Philadelphia. Like it's

880
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:58,200
Speaker 2: not a real home dog. Their whole lives are on

881
00:46:58,239 --> 00:47:01,440
Speaker 2: the road, Like even when they're at home. You know,

882
00:47:02,480 --> 00:47:05,160
Speaker 2: do we really think the diehard Lions fans aren't going

883
00:47:05,239 --> 00:47:07,480
Speaker 2: to show up more than the Chargers fans of this game.

884
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:12,160
Speaker 2: Of course we do. So you're right though, normal spot,

885
00:47:12,520 --> 00:47:15,520
Speaker 2: I'm almost always on the Chargers here, so that's the

886
00:47:15,560 --> 00:47:17,560
Speaker 2: only reason I wouldn't be in our contest come Sunday

887
00:47:17,600 --> 00:47:20,080
Speaker 2: if this is the same splits, which is ninety ninety.

888
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:23,000
Speaker 2: I mean, Evan tells us too, You'll tell us Sunday

889
00:47:23,040 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 2: morning what the splits are. Like, I'm out, Like, no

890
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:28,239
Speaker 2: way would this one be in the contest. But if

891
00:47:28,280 --> 00:47:30,880
Speaker 2: we get some hopefully professional money someone to come in

892
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 2: on the other side and come in on the Chargers team,

893
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:35,000
Speaker 2: I'd feel much better if this was a seventy seventy

894
00:47:35,080 --> 00:47:38,000
Speaker 2: split rather than a ninety ninety split, which is just insane.

895
00:47:38,320 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's tough. It's tough, all right. The next game,

896
00:47:43,280 --> 00:47:47,479
Speaker 1: the New York Giants at the Dallas Cowboys. Our guy

897
00:47:48,560 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 1: Tommy DeVito has been named a full time starter for

898
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 1: the rest of the year for the New York Giants.

899
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:58,840
Speaker 1: That is tragic, like there's sometimes you just feel bad,

900
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:03,280
Speaker 1: like it's basically the truth is, every coach, every player

901
00:48:04,080 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 1: has a limited window in which to experience being in

902
00:48:07,640 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 1: the NFL. And for the Giants, their window one of

903
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 1: years of the one year of those of that window

904
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 1: is now being controlled by Tommy Davito, And that's just

905
00:48:20,120 --> 00:48:22,359
Speaker 1: I feel bad for them. They're sixteen and a half

906
00:48:22,360 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 1: point dogs to the Cowboys.

907
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Jim tanned laundry Baby. Here we go,

908
00:48:28,440 --> 00:48:33,279
Speaker 2: Tommy DeVito. How you feeling, boys? Chad said it, we

909
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:36,320
Speaker 2: usually go Dallas here. We take them as big favorites

910
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:39,720
Speaker 2: against bad teams and tends to work out for us.

911
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: I don't in what world do they scroll on this

912
00:48:44,040 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 2: Dallas defense, especially at Dallas coming off a loss, Like

913
00:48:48,120 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 2: if they beat the Eagles and this number was this high,

914
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 2: you know, I probably could get talked into that, Like

915
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:57,280
Speaker 2: I could probably get talked into the Vito like he had,

916
00:48:58,560 --> 00:49:00,839
Speaker 2: you know, some moments where it's like, Okay, I can

917
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,000
Speaker 2: see why this kid made a roster against the Raiders,

918
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,280
Speaker 2: like he that's how low the bar was. He completed

919
00:49:06,280 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 2: a couple of passes out there. Okay, this kid's got

920
00:49:08,640 --> 00:49:13,280
Speaker 2: some moxie. He's he doesn't it shouldn't be in the league.

921
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,439
Speaker 2: It's like this guy is the classic definition of well,

922
00:49:16,719 --> 00:49:18,960
Speaker 2: I don't want to be paying a guy who's been

923
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:21,400
Speaker 2: in the league for ten years, a couple extra million.

924
00:49:21,760 --> 00:49:24,399
Speaker 2: I rather just draft the guy and you know, see

925
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:26,760
Speaker 2: what he has making my project. Maybe he's a Rock Purtier.

926
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:28,800
Speaker 2: Maybe he's just gonna be on our bench. He'll be

927
00:49:28,800 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 2: out a league in three years. That's that's what this

928
00:49:30,719 --> 00:49:32,600
Speaker 2: kid's future was, right, he was just gonna come in,

929
00:49:33,320 --> 00:49:36,160
Speaker 2: get a couple of cheap checks, just filling a body

930
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: on the roster. Right he was behind Daniel Jones, behind

931
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 2: Tyrod Taylor. This kid was never going to see the field.

932
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:46,880
Speaker 2: Now he is starting in Dallas. Just a nightmare. So

933
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,320
Speaker 2: I won't get there because it's such a big number.

934
00:49:50,760 --> 00:49:52,800
Speaker 2: But if Chad came to me Sunday mornings, like we

935
00:49:52,880 --> 00:49:55,600
Speaker 2: got to put this in and it's under seventeen, I

936
00:49:55,680 --> 00:49:57,239
Speaker 2: might be able to get there because it's just a

937
00:49:57,280 --> 00:49:59,360
Speaker 2: horrible spot for the Giants or just walking into the

938
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 2: Hornets nest right now with this Dallas team. But just

939
00:50:02,000 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 2: an absurd, huge number. And I think we use Dallas

940
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,800
Speaker 2: already for survivor. But like this, this is the standout

941
00:50:08,840 --> 00:50:10,600
Speaker 2: play of the week, Like, if you still got Dallas,

942
00:50:10,600 --> 00:50:12,319
Speaker 2: how do you not use them here against this kid?

943
00:50:12,840 --> 00:50:15,240
Speaker 1: Look, I think we're gonna have a lot of options

944
00:50:15,280 --> 00:50:17,600
Speaker 1: that we like on Sunday. We probably won't need to

945
00:50:17,800 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 1: get down to Dallas. One of the options which I

946
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:29,239
Speaker 1: do like, Seattle a six point favorite at home, some

947
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:32,200
Speaker 1: places six and a half, but you can still get

948
00:50:32,200 --> 00:50:38,960
Speaker 1: it at six at home against Washington. Love Seattle in

949
00:50:39,040 --> 00:50:41,480
Speaker 1: this spot. All the stuff that we liked about Seattle

950
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 1: against Baltimore still applies. They have a good defense, didn't

951
00:50:46,280 --> 00:50:50,160
Speaker 1: show it against Baltimore. They have a good quarterback, didn't

952
00:50:50,160 --> 00:50:53,080
Speaker 1: show it against Baltimore. But they are playing a far

953
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:56,439
Speaker 1: inferior team in Washington that is sort of coming back

954
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,600
Speaker 1: down to earth after losing Chase Young and Montes Sweat Right,

955
00:50:59,640 --> 00:51:03,240
Speaker 1: they had that US against the World dead cat bounce

956
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 1: against New England. They were playing the right team in

957
00:51:05,800 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: New England, a team that can't execute no matter what

958
00:51:08,560 --> 00:51:11,280
Speaker 1: the scenario. The reality is this is not New England

959
00:51:11,440 --> 00:51:15,080
Speaker 1: and that Washington rush d is bad on multiple levels.

960
00:51:15,080 --> 00:51:17,480
Speaker 1: From an advanced metrics point of view, this is how

961
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 1: Seattle will try to win the game. Shout out to

962
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who does the hot read in the podcast

963
00:51:23,440 --> 00:51:26,360
Speaker 1: that Joe Blant and Evan do on Sunday night. Wrapping

964
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 1: up the week, who choose a couple games that he

965
00:51:28,520 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 1: looks ahead on, and he's been smoking hot on these games.

966
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 1: He was two and er last week and Seattle is

967
00:51:37,040 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: one of the games that he liked. I got it

968
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 1: at six. It's moving up in some places, but I

969
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:43,640
Speaker 1: do love Seattle in this spot.

970
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: It's line stinks. I don't get it. Why is it

971
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:53,640
Speaker 2: not over seven? Fishy number, fishy line, fishy game. I

972
00:51:53,680 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 2: don't get this number. Read I was with you. I

973
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,280
Speaker 2: want to be on Seattle, Like this is a great

974
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:00,759
Speaker 2: bounce back spot for Seattle. Washington already coming off a

975
00:52:00,880 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 2: road win. They don't really need I mean, of course

976
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:05,719
Speaker 2: they need this game, but they're not desperate, right, they don't.

977
00:52:05,760 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 2: They don't have that stank all week. They're feeling pretty

978
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:10,080
Speaker 2: good all week. They had a win. Now they're going

979
00:52:10,160 --> 00:52:13,880
Speaker 2: up to Seattle. I do not get this number at all. Like,

980
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:16,320
Speaker 2: Seattle is such a better team to me than Washington,

981
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:20,760
Speaker 2: especially after Washington made all these trades. Be careful, people,

982
00:52:20,920 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 2: be careful on this one. I have no bets on

983
00:52:23,560 --> 00:52:25,919
Speaker 2: it yet. I don't know what I'm doing leaning leaning

984
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,440
Speaker 2: towards Washington. I just I do not Yeah, I just

985
00:52:29,480 --> 00:52:32,399
Speaker 2: don't get this number, Like why why is this under

986
00:52:32,400 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 2: a touchdown? Like this? Seattle should roll in this game.

987
00:52:35,800 --> 00:52:39,520
Speaker 2: Like you just said, there's there's nothing on Washington's defense

988
00:52:39,560 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 2: that's going to give problems to Gino in this offense.

989
00:52:42,120 --> 00:52:46,760
Speaker 2: So you know, maybe maybe I way too much respect

990
00:52:46,760 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 2: for Eric Blentemy and like I think he should be

991
00:52:49,320 --> 00:52:53,360
Speaker 2: the head coach of the Washington He's just been incredible offensively.

992
00:52:53,400 --> 00:52:56,760
Speaker 2: What he's done with Sam Howe and this offensive Washington

993
00:52:56,800 --> 00:53:00,919
Speaker 2: has just been amazing. Like this guy, he's been for them.

994
00:53:01,080 --> 00:53:03,080
Speaker 2: Just look at what the Chiefs of the Chiefs are

995
00:53:03,200 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 2: now since he's left, like that Chiefs offense looks totally

996
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 2: lost and he's the only difference. He's like Yeah, someone said, well,

997
00:53:11,239 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 2: do you think it matters that Juju left? Did Juju

998
00:53:13,600 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 2: really change the Chiefs offense last season? No, Like he's

999
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:19,560
Speaker 2: Eric is the reason they're there. Their offense is struggling

1000
00:53:19,560 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 2: in the Kansas City. Like the man, maybe we gave

1001
00:53:23,160 --> 00:53:25,279
Speaker 2: too much credit day to Reid and that's why he left, right,

1002
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:28,359
Speaker 2: he wasn't getting the head coaching jobs. He said, forget it,

1003
00:53:28,560 --> 00:53:30,880
Speaker 2: I'm leaving. I'm going somewhere. That's just a train wreck

1004
00:53:30,920 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 2: that I'll prove to everyone that I am an offensive

1005
00:53:33,040 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 2: genius and I can't doubt him like he's just he's

1006
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 2: The way he's coaching now has just been amazing. So

1007
00:53:40,840 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 2: I'm right there with you, Chad. I don't get this number.

1008
00:53:43,719 --> 00:53:46,479
Speaker 2: Why Seattle is so low, feels like it's great value

1009
00:53:46,480 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 2: in Seattle. I'm just I'm just gonna stay away from it.

1010
00:53:48,480 --> 00:53:50,040
Speaker 2: There's something fishy about this line.

1011
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 1: Teams to lose by twenty points or more the previous

1012
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 1: week facing a team that didn't lose by twenty points

1013
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 1: or more, they are sixty percent against the spread since

1014
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 1: twenty twenty in Week ten. That includes the Giants, the Cardinals,

1015
00:54:07,719 --> 00:54:10,839
Speaker 1: and Seattle. So in theory, two out of those three

1016
00:54:10,880 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 1: teams should cover. And I think, to me, Seattle in

1017
00:54:15,719 --> 00:54:22,960
Speaker 1: Arizona feel like the right sides to cover. So I

1018
00:54:23,000 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 1: still like it.

1019
00:54:23,719 --> 00:54:25,120
Speaker 2: I know you don't know if I told you. Ninety

1020
00:54:25,160 --> 00:54:28,359
Speaker 2: percent of the handle is on Sincere on Seattle, and

1021
00:54:28,440 --> 00:54:32,440
Speaker 2: seventy percent of the tickets is on Seattle, and the

1022
00:54:32,480 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 2: book is still showing six. It's just weird. It's a weird,

1023
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:37,600
Speaker 2: weird number. I know it's early in the week, but

1024
00:54:37,640 --> 00:54:40,480
Speaker 2: I just it's only something. Something's funny about that line.

1025
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 1: Right, But it's no different than the Lions all all

1026
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,399
Speaker 1: the tickets, right, Yeah, it's still yeah.

1027
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,000
Speaker 2: I don't feel great with the Lions either. It's just

1028
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,359
Speaker 2: I got these books. They lay traps. We talk all

1029
00:54:51,360 --> 00:54:53,840
Speaker 2: the time, and this is this is definitely one of

1030
00:54:53,840 --> 00:54:54,720
Speaker 2: those weird numbers.

1031
00:54:55,040 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, but Simon, you know I don't have nuances in

1032
00:54:58,840 --> 00:55:01,800
Speaker 1: my feelings. I've I feel sick or I feel amazing.

1033
00:55:02,480 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 1: Right now on Seattle against Washington, I feel amazing. Simon.

1034
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:10,520
Speaker 1: Can you name the fastest growing ticketing app in the

1035
00:55:10,640 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 1: United States?

1036
00:55:12,320 --> 00:55:13,240
Speaker 2: Game Time?

1037
00:55:13,600 --> 00:55:16,600
Speaker 1: That's right, our sponsor, game Time. I love game Time

1038
00:55:16,600 --> 00:55:19,080
Speaker 1: for two reasons. One they sponsored this show. Number two,

1039
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 1: I actually use game Time to buy tickets. They've got

1040
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:25,080
Speaker 1: amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets, including

1041
00:55:25,160 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 1: pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I'm going

1042
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,480
Speaker 1: to open game Time right now from our studio here

1043
00:55:31,800 --> 00:55:35,799
Speaker 1: in New York City, Manhattan. Baby, I'm looking at my app.

1044
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:38,040
Speaker 1: I can see it right now. I'm opening game Time.

1045
00:55:38,120 --> 00:55:42,479
Speaker 1: Guess what Saint John's basketball? That's right? Is college basketball season?

1046
00:55:42,560 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 1: Rick Patino is back. He's coaching the Johnnies. I can

1047
00:55:45,000 --> 00:55:48,280
Speaker 1: get in ten box to see a Hall of Fame

1048
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:50,960
Speaker 1: coach taking a team and turning it around. Are you

1049
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 1: kidding me? No matter where you live, download the game

1050
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:55,480
Speaker 1: time app. Get Out has some fun this week. Go

1051
00:55:55,520 --> 00:55:58,760
Speaker 1: sweat your bets live and in person. You can redeem

1052
00:55:58,760 --> 00:56:02,520
Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms

1053
00:56:02,640 --> 00:56:06,160
Speaker 1: apply again. Just download the app enter code favorites for

1054
00:56:06,200 --> 00:56:09,440
Speaker 1: twenty dollars off. Last minute ticket's lowest price guaranteed. All right,

1055
00:56:09,480 --> 00:56:13,360
Speaker 1: we got two more games, the Jets and Raiders right now.

1056
00:56:14,120 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 1: Obviously the Jets coming off that terrible, terrible loss. This

1057
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 1: game has moved from two and a half to one

1058
00:56:20,600 --> 00:56:26,200
Speaker 1: and a half. No opinion on this. Can't find a

1059
00:56:26,239 --> 00:56:27,840
Speaker 1: way to bet it. That makes me feel comfortable?

1060
00:56:27,880 --> 00:56:31,279
Speaker 2: What you love the Jets here? How do you not

1061
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:33,879
Speaker 2: love the Jets here? I'm praying this move to them

1062
00:56:33,880 --> 00:56:37,440
Speaker 2: being a dog. That would be incredible Like this, This

1063
00:56:37,560 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 2: rookie QB getting all the love right now for the Raiders.

1064
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:43,440
Speaker 2: And you know, people are feeling good. They had the

1065
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:47,040
Speaker 2: bounce back game, they won big. Antonio Pierce gave some

1066
00:56:47,120 --> 00:56:50,600
Speaker 2: amazing speech. The boys love playing for him. Everyone's feeling good.

1067
00:56:51,239 --> 00:56:53,920
Speaker 2: Devonte Adams has one catch. He doesn't care. He's happy,

1068
00:56:54,000 --> 00:56:59,439
Speaker 2: right they're winning. Yeah, gotta god, gotta bet the Jets here.

1069
00:56:59,520 --> 00:57:02,280
Speaker 2: I mean these are Can.

1070
00:57:02,120 --> 00:57:03,640
Speaker 1: We at least wait and see if they get to

1071
00:57:03,680 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 1: a dog?

1072
00:57:05,160 --> 00:57:07,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, you can. I'm gonna I'm gonna take the one

1073
00:57:07,600 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 2: and a half here, but I'm hoping it gets to

1074
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:14,680
Speaker 2: a dog. But no total overreaction by the public. Yes,

1075
00:57:15,680 --> 00:57:18,640
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson is terrible. Me and Chad hate betting on him.

1076
00:57:18,680 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 2: We hate watching him. We hate the experience as it is.

1077
00:57:21,680 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 2: But you know, we're playing the numbers here. The Jets

1078
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 2: are a better team. The bet the Jets have better coaching.

1079
00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:34,840
Speaker 2: The Jets have, you know, a defense that going up

1080
00:57:34,880 --> 00:57:38,200
Speaker 2: against this kid, they should get a bunch of turnovers.

1081
00:57:38,200 --> 00:57:40,200
Speaker 2: Like this feels like a good time to back the

1082
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:43,800
Speaker 2: Jets team. So it feels good looking at the splits

1083
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: here again, another game where the public is all over

1084
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:50,960
Speaker 2: one side. And you know, me and Chad we don't

1085
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 2: blindly fade the public, right we went to and oh

1086
00:57:52,840 --> 00:57:54,760
Speaker 2: last week rounding to the public, we had or three

1087
00:57:54,800 --> 00:57:56,920
Speaker 2: and oh, I guess the Chiefs, the Eagles, and the Bengals,

1088
00:57:56,920 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 2: all of them were the most bet teams. That's not

1089
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:01,960
Speaker 2: the norm for us. That's not somewhere I want to

1090
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:04,520
Speaker 2: be either. But if the if the numbers line upright

1091
00:58:04,600 --> 00:58:06,959
Speaker 2: and we're getting value on the one side, we don't

1092
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 2: really care what the public is doing. This is one

1093
00:58:09,600 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 2: where the public is totally overreacting, right. They're all pissed off.

1094
00:58:13,520 --> 00:58:15,840
Speaker 2: We said that the Jets are a public dog last night,

1095
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 2: so that means everyone of the Grandmam they lost on

1096
00:58:18,720 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 2: the Jets last night. They're mad. They're coming on the Raiders.

1097
00:58:22,280 --> 00:58:28,480
Speaker 2: This is another primetime game. Man who knows who knows?

1098
00:58:28,480 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 2: Comes Sunday. If I convinced, try to put this one in.

1099
00:58:30,760 --> 00:58:33,480
Speaker 2: But because Sunday nights have been good to us, we've

1100
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 2: had a nice run with these Sunday games. If the

1101
00:58:37,600 --> 00:58:40,720
Speaker 2: Jets are a dog comes Sunday, this will be in.

1102
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:42,680
Speaker 2: Like I'm telling you people, this will be in. If

1103
00:58:42,720 --> 00:58:44,920
Speaker 2: the Jets are a dog. I can't pass on that value.

1104
00:58:44,960 --> 00:58:48,040
Speaker 2: But as you sit here right now, don't worry not

1105
00:58:48,160 --> 00:58:50,360
Speaker 2: making Simon says, not doing any of that for you people.

1106
00:58:50,400 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 2: It's just just letting you know I love the Jets.

1107
00:58:53,400 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 2: In the spot this week.

1108
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:57,439
Speaker 1: It's going to be Thursday afternoon and me and Matt

1109
00:58:57,480 --> 00:59:00,840
Speaker 1: Mitchell are going to be in fucking Copenhagen, and I'm

1110
00:59:00,840 --> 00:59:04,320
Speaker 1: going to be have to to be yelling big balls

1111
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: bet of the week in our Danish studio, and I'm

1112
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:09,400
Speaker 1: gonna have all these people looking at me like what

1113
00:59:09,440 --> 00:59:12,080
Speaker 1: the fuck is wrong with that guy? While I'm yelling

1114
00:59:12,080 --> 00:59:14,080
Speaker 1: big balls bet of the week about the New York

1115
00:59:14,120 --> 00:59:16,479
Speaker 1: goddamn Jets. Then I'm going to get off a plan

1116
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,760
Speaker 1: on Saturday night at nine thirty in New York's at

1117
00:59:19,840 --> 00:59:22,840
Speaker 1: JFK and have to take a car to the two

1118
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:26,320
Speaker 1: hours home and then sleep off my jet lag and

1119
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 1: then have to stay up to watch the goddamn fucking

1120
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 1: Jets against the Raiders.

1121
00:59:30,920 --> 00:59:35,919
Speaker 2: What a good life. I'm jealous. I want your life, Jed.

1122
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:40,960
Speaker 1: It's a pretty good life. The Broncos are seven and

1123
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 1: a half point dogs to the Bills. I bet this

1124
00:59:43,600 --> 00:59:46,320
Speaker 1: at seven and a half on the Broncos. Of course

1125
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:49,680
Speaker 1: she does like what am I missing here?

1126
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:52,160
Speaker 2: I don't know? Makes me want to take the Bills?

1127
00:59:52,200 --> 00:59:54,720
Speaker 2: What is this line? Why are the Bills getting seven

1128
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:57,240
Speaker 2: and a half? Like this is last year? What is happening?

1129
00:59:57,640 --> 00:59:59,120
Speaker 2: Are the books fucking with us? It was the same

1130
00:59:59,120 --> 01:00:02,439
Speaker 2: thing in that Bengals game. It's like it makes no sense. Yeah,

1131
01:00:02,440 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 2: who were the Bills to be two and a half

1132
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:06,560
Speaker 2: against the Bengals in that game? That was such a

1133
01:00:06,560 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 2: bizarre line, And it feels the same here where It's like,

1134
01:00:10,200 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 2: I told you I wanted to fade the Broncos so

1135
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 2: bad last week after they beat the Chiefs and they'd

1136
01:00:14,840 --> 01:00:17,040
Speaker 2: won their Super Bowl right first time they'd beat them

1137
01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 2: in I don't even know what it was. They'd lost

1138
01:00:19,360 --> 01:00:22,720
Speaker 2: like sixteen times. Yeah, they got lucky. They had a

1139
01:00:22,760 --> 01:00:26,040
Speaker 2: bye week, you know. Now they're on the road even

1140
01:00:26,080 --> 01:00:30,040
Speaker 2: more extended rest playing against the Bills. I'll do the

1141
01:00:30,040 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 2: coward method and I'll just take Bills first.

1142
01:00:31,840 --> 01:00:36,320
Speaker 4: Half Simon Hunter, professional coward and be like.

1143
01:00:36,280 --> 01:00:39,160
Speaker 2: You know what long layoff for Denver after a big win.

1144
01:00:39,440 --> 01:00:42,160
Speaker 2: They'll come out slow. They'll come out sluggish against the

1145
01:00:42,160 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 2: Bills team that I expect to come out hungry and desperate.

1146
01:00:45,320 --> 01:00:48,120
Speaker 2: But the Bills don't got the dogs on defense. That's

1147
01:00:48,120 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 2: why I don't get this number, Like they don't got Yeah,

1148
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 2: they don't got the guys I mixed up. So I'm

1149
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:55,520
Speaker 2: not going to fault Chad for jumping right in on

1150
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:57,880
Speaker 2: the seven and a half, Like I feel like I

1151
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:00,120
Speaker 2: want to do it too. I got no more on

1152
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:02,640
Speaker 2: this game right now, but I'm leaning towards just taking

1153
01:01:02,680 --> 01:01:04,480
Speaker 2: the Bills first half and just being done with this one,

1154
01:01:04,480 --> 01:01:07,880
Speaker 2: because seven and a half. Everything in my body screaming

1155
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 2: take the Broncos. But weird, weird number by the books

1156
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:13,120
Speaker 2: hanging this at seven and a half.

1157
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:17,160
Speaker 1: Guy Russell Wilson has been just good enough. And I

1158
01:01:17,200 --> 01:01:19,400
Speaker 1: don't buy the they're going to come out slow theory

1159
01:01:19,440 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 1: because that's when that's the only time they're good is

1160
01:01:22,280 --> 01:01:22,960
Speaker 1: because well, just.

1161
01:01:22,920 --> 01:01:24,600
Speaker 2: First drive, he's the only time he's good. They're good

1162
01:01:24,600 --> 01:01:25,720
Speaker 2: on the first drive and that's it.

1163
01:01:26,240 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 1: They're so scripted. And also Sean Payton figured out what

1164
01:01:31,800 --> 01:01:34,800
Speaker 1: to do with this team, like they made a conscious

1165
01:01:34,920 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 1: effort and improved on defense, really good coaching. It's not

1166
01:01:39,480 --> 01:01:42,600
Speaker 1: just the flukey way, Like he's had another week to

1167
01:01:42,640 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 1: build confidence, tighten up that defense, and the Bills aren't

1168
01:01:45,800 --> 01:01:47,280
Speaker 1: a bit of a free for all right, two and

1169
01:01:47,280 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: two since that last loss to that since that loss

1170
01:01:49,360 --> 01:01:53,280
Speaker 1: of the Jags, unimpressive struggle wins against the Giants and

1171
01:01:53,320 --> 01:01:55,800
Speaker 1: the Bucks.

1172
01:01:55,000 --> 01:01:56,840
Speaker 2: They're even money right now to make the playoffs. Jet

1173
01:01:56,920 --> 01:01:57,880
Speaker 2: that's how the books view.

1174
01:01:58,040 --> 01:02:03,000
Speaker 1: That's how bad it is Yeah, like this. It's fascinating

1175
01:02:04,080 --> 01:02:07,160
Speaker 1: the AFC North and the AFC East, the way things

1176
01:02:07,160 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 1: have flipped the past couple of weeks. Right we thought

1177
01:02:10,160 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 1: the AFC North would be the best division of football,

1178
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:15,160
Speaker 1: and the last few weeks we're seeing, you know, the

1179
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:20,800
Speaker 1: Bengals and Ravens and the Bills and the Dolphins in

1180
01:02:20,840 --> 01:02:24,360
Speaker 1: the East just sort of creating a little bit. It's fascinating.

1181
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 1: So right now games that could be in our contest,

1182
01:02:28,360 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 1: and we're gonna talk about this more on Thursday. Jacks

1183
01:02:30,560 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 1: plus three, Tennessee plus one and a half, Browns plus six,

1184
01:02:34,680 --> 01:02:37,200
Speaker 1: Bengals minus six and a half, New Orleans minus two

1185
01:02:37,240 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: and a half, Lions minus one and a half, Seattle

1186
01:02:41,640 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 1: minus six, New York Jets minus one and a half,

1187
01:02:45,880 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 1: Broncos plus seven and a half. Maybe as a reminder,

1188
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:53,040
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1189
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01:03:34,800 --> 01:03:36,720
Speaker 1: catch our next episode of The Favorites live on the

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01:03:36,760 --> 01:03:41,440
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1204
01:03:41,440 --> 01:03:45,280
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01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:48,320
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01:03:48,360 --> 01:03:52,560
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1207
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:03,040
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