Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rocked Bet. We
Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the
Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise
Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined
Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my bff, my companion,
Speaker 1: my Campadre professional better Simon Hunter at all. So iomon, Chad.
Speaker 2: How are we doing? Brother brother?
Speaker 1: I got to be a little muted today because I'm
Speaker 1: sitting in a hotel room. I'll be in a hotel
Speaker 1: room for our next two shows. If you could see,
Speaker 1: this is the beauty of podcasting in the modern age.
Speaker 1: My computer is balanced on the top of a turned
Speaker 1: over ice container, and there is a light that is
Speaker 1: half hanging on to the edge of my computer. So
Speaker 1: if we get through this whole show, and I'm on
Speaker 1: hotel WiFi, if we get through this whole show and
Speaker 1: nothing collapses, that will be the miracle.
Speaker 2: Now, I got good faith. We've had a good run
Speaker 2: with the hotel WiFi.
Speaker 1: We're also having a good run lately. We went three
Speaker 1: and two last week and our five favorite picks. We
Speaker 1: won with the Browns, we won with the Panthers, we
Speaker 1: won with the Eagles on Sunday night. Great call by you.
Speaker 1: We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the
Speaker 1: Rams for the year. Take a look at the graphic.
Speaker 1: Everyone can see. This is where they get the official
Speaker 1: updates on our progress. Thirty one twenty four through eleven
Speaker 1: weeks of the season. Sometimes I wish I was only
Speaker 1: betting these five games and I didn't bet anything else,
Speaker 1: because I feel like it's the other games that are
Speaker 1: completely screwing me up. Simon, this is our Tuesday show.
Speaker 1: We'll get through the entire slate. If you want to
Speaker 1: see what the final five are, you got to check
Speaker 1: out the show Sunday am on Sharper Square YouTube page.
Speaker 1: Don't forget subscribe to Apple Pods, Spotify wherever you get
Speaker 1: your pods. All right, Thursday night football? Interesting game Buffalo
Speaker 1: at Houston. Houston is a six point underdog at hard
Speaker 1: Rock five and a halfs in a lot of other places. Look,
Speaker 1: I mean who's playing QB, And I don't mean for
Speaker 1: the Texans. I mean is it Josh Allen who can
Speaker 1: be inconsistent and looks like he's pressing and is missing receivers?
Speaker 1: Or is it Josh Allen the superhuman who had six
Speaker 1: touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a
Speaker 1: game that I think everyone is still getting over the
Speaker 1: hangover because it was so freaking wild. From the opening drive,
Speaker 1: the Bills were unstoppable.
Speaker 3: It's definitely a game where brow when you saw the numbers,
Speaker 3: especially there's five and a half's up there, it's like,
Speaker 3: how do you not want to just take the Bills
Speaker 3: after the game they've just had and what you just said,
Speaker 3: what we've seen from Davis Mills and we expected from
Speaker 3: this Texas team.
Speaker 2: So I don't know.
Speaker 3: I kind of want to take the Texans now they
Speaker 3: were at six, but I don't think CJ is gonna play,
Speaker 3: and that's how he is, either concussions. It's like everyone's
Speaker 3: affected differently for them. So it's really tough to even
Speaker 3: try to predict it, and it's a type of thing
Speaker 3: where we don't know it's all in house. My biggest
Speaker 3: issue would definitely be Houston as a home team. I
Speaker 3: don't know, they just it's not like they have that
Speaker 3: huge home field advantage, and even their primetime numbers of
Speaker 3: franchise just aren't good. It's pretty alarm and they're eighteen
Speaker 3: and thirty one straight up, fifteen and thirty two against
Speaker 3: the spread in night games. So it's just it doesn't
Speaker 3: matter who the quarterback is. Historically it's not a good
Speaker 3: spot for them. So it makes sense the early money
Speaker 3: is coming in from the professionals and the public all
Speaker 3: lined up on this Bills team with so much unknown
Speaker 3: of as Texans team. So I guess I'll go Bill's
Speaker 3: minus five and a half for now if you can
Speaker 3: find it. But like we said, it's already minus six
Speaker 3: a hard rock, I could still I guess the Bills, but.
Speaker 2: I know it's super.
Speaker 3: Publicly and it's going to be all public money. But
Speaker 3: we've seen these Thursday games. It's just doesn't really matter.
Speaker 3: If it's a bad matchup and it's a guy like
Speaker 3: Davis Mills playing, it's a shootout. I just don't think
Speaker 3: he can keep up. So these these short week games
Speaker 3: are just tough. And you know, we expect Josh Allena
Speaker 3: have a letdown game after putting up six touchdowns, but
Speaker 3: maybe he's on a roll.
Speaker 2: So I'm not going to try to get in front
Speaker 2: of it.
Speaker 1: I don't know about you, John No, No, Josh Allen
Speaker 1: with the epic I guess back door fa the rare
Speaker 1: back door favorite cover. Being down one with five minutes
Speaker 1: left and winning that game by twelve is what closed
Speaker 1: it a six and a half point favorite. Davis Mills. Look,
Speaker 1: it's a short week. CJ's still in the protocol. He
Speaker 1: we don't know what's going to be happening. He hasn't
Speaker 1: been cleared yet. They got the Bills, Colts and Chiefs
Speaker 1: on the docket. The Texans are five hundred. You wonder,
Speaker 1: all right, do they sit him one more game, make
Speaker 1: sure that he's healthy for the division game where that
Speaker 1: might be in the standings for the playoffs, potentially more
Speaker 1: important down the road. Davis Mills. I thought this was interesting. Again,
Speaker 1: I'm not advocating for betting the Texans in any way.
Speaker 1: Davis Mills had another last fourth quarter come from behind
Speaker 1: win on Sunday that was his second in a row.
Speaker 1: The last time Davis Mills started a game before this
Speaker 1: season was the last game of twenty twenty three, when
Speaker 1: he led a come from behind win for the Texans
Speaker 1: when they were in position to have the number one
Speaker 1: overall pick. But that win knocked them out of the
Speaker 1: number one overall pick. The Texans might very well have
Speaker 1: Bryce Young right now instead of c. J. Stroud if
Speaker 1: Davis Mills does not win that game for Lovey Smith,
Speaker 1: who immediately got fired forgetting his team to win at
Speaker 1: the end of that twenty twenty three season. My point
Speaker 1: in saying all that is, who knows. Maybe Davis Mills
Speaker 1: is just really good in the fourth quarter at the
Speaker 1: only time that matters, and the rest of the game
Speaker 1: he's just tortured to watch. Possible.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's impossible. Consistent to now it is.
Speaker 1: The Bills also gave up two hundred yards to the
Speaker 1: Tempate Buccaneers rushing on Sunday, so we know that their
Speaker 1: defense has not gotten better. It's going to be can
Speaker 1: Josh Allen do something against this Texans defense? That's really
Speaker 1: going to be the game. Seattle minus thirteen versus Tennessee.
Speaker 1: They're visiting the Tennessee Titans. We talked about this one
Speaker 1: on Sunday night. You pegged it immediately. I know, I
Speaker 1: bet Seattle on Sunday at twelve and a half. I'm
Speaker 1: assuming you did as well. Totally a big number, but
Speaker 1: the defense is as good as let's say Houston's that
Speaker 1: just played the type and held them to thirteen points.
Speaker 1: And it took a miracle to get there, and its
Speaker 1: offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers
Speaker 1: for that matter, both of which were in position to
Speaker 1: cover big numbers late in the game. So I feel
Speaker 1: like the universe should right itself with this one.
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I said this is a spot I would
Speaker 3: never usually take. I just blindly would take home dog,
Speaker 3: especially this big, and a lot of the numbers do
Speaker 3: back it up playing dogs this big at home.
Speaker 2: Just so people know why this is a rare spot
Speaker 2: for me to Yawks.
Speaker 3: So since twenty twenty, favorites of eleven of points are
Speaker 3: more three and seven against the spread, which is pretty bad.
Speaker 3: They're actually five and five straight up in those games.
Speaker 3: So it's a weird thing where these teams that are
Speaker 3: big favorites juggernauts lose these games. But I don't think
Speaker 3: it's here. I think we just saw a Tennessee's best
Speaker 3: shot that we go for in a divisional game.
Speaker 2: I agree.
Speaker 3: Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut. So I just said
Speaker 3: those trends just to give up. People couldn't believe when
Speaker 3: I was saying I like the Seahawks, and I said
Speaker 3: I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot. But
Speaker 3: this lay in the season with a number of this big,
Speaker 3: Like I said, the books were gonna be begging for
Speaker 3: Tennessee money and they opened it too short, and I
Speaker 3: think it's still too short, Like why is this not
Speaker 3: above fourteen years?
Speaker 2: So Tennessee, we've seen it this year.
Speaker 3: We've been burned by these fluky random points they get,
Speaker 3: like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward,
Speaker 3: they just they've been a covering machine. But here it
Speaker 3: feels like it's a great spot for Seattle, who they
Speaker 3: are eight and two against the spread this season. Seattle
Speaker 3: so like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers,
Speaker 3: and it's really if you go and look, it's them
Speaker 3: being up on bad teams.
Speaker 2: They do really well against bad teams.
Speaker 3: So I think it's just their defense is so so
Speaker 3: well coached they really don't give an inch. And then offensively,
Speaker 3: we just saw Seam Donald have his worst game of
Speaker 3: the year. It just feels like the exact spot he
Speaker 3: needs to get right. So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I
Speaker 3: don't really think she all having much of a run
Speaker 3: game ops, but passing wise, they should torch the secondary.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I still like this number as long as
Speaker 3: you're getting under fourteen.
Speaker 1: Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways. That's
Speaker 1: been sort of the issue for Seattle. So I think
Speaker 1: this is a really good opportunity for Donald to get right.
Speaker 1: And I think we did get a little bit of
Speaker 1: a lower number on Sunday and even today because of
Speaker 1: the stink of what Donald did and people thinking, oh, Donald,
Speaker 1: he's back, you see him ghosts again. I don't think
Speaker 1: that's the case. We've seen him have bad games. He
Speaker 1: had a bad game in the playoffs last year against
Speaker 1: the Rams and then came back and has been an
Speaker 1: MVP candidate for most of the year. So this is
Speaker 1: when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate, is against
Speaker 1: a very bad Tennessee Titans team.
Speaker 2: I broke my rule last week.
Speaker 3: I just said I will blindly bet Seattle as a
Speaker 3: road team. They've just been so good to me, and
Speaker 3: you know, under their head coach, they're nine and three
Speaker 3: against the spreading the season they're five and one, so
Speaker 3: they're just covering machines of the road. They just get
Speaker 3: up on a McDonald. So, uh, you gotta bet it.
Speaker 2: I don't know.
Speaker 3: It's just I just I'm trying not to number scare
Speaker 3: me off. It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's
Speaker 3: worthy of it. They're just a really talented team.
Speaker 1: You know what's weird. We talked about it on Sunday.
Speaker 1: I didn't hesitate, didn't feel like it felt like a
Speaker 1: big number that Seattle should win this game. Thirty four
Speaker 1: to three. Lock it in clip that for Monday.
Speaker 2: That'd be nice.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh at Chicago. Chicago was a three point favorite. This
Speaker 1: opened a two and a half after the Mason Rudolph
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. After Aaron Rodgers was injured in the game
Speaker 1: and it became clear, or at least people thought Mason
Speaker 1: Rudolph would be starting this next week. Aaron Rodgers has
Speaker 1: a fractured left wrist. Surgery not required. It's still not
Speaker 1: determined if he will be playing this Sunday. But this
Speaker 1: is a Mason Rudolph line today Simon, According to Owen
Speaker 1: Millman via Larry Mayer on Twitter, this was texted to
Speaker 1: me right before we started recording by Owen. Today is
Speaker 1: Caleb Williams twenty fourth birthday. He was born November eighteenth,
Speaker 1: two thousand and one Cordner, Larry Mayer, and Owen Millman.
Speaker 1: He is the only player currently on the Bears roster
Speaker 1: who was born on a day that the Bears played
Speaker 1: a game. They beat the Temp Bay Buccaneers twenty seven
Speaker 1: twenty four behind three touchdowns from Jim Miller, not so
Speaker 1: Bears legend who turned into a Bears broadcasting legend. He
Speaker 1: threw three touchdowns to Marty Booker Bears one twenty seven
Speaker 1: to twenty four and the Bay He needs to be
Speaker 1: first place Chicago Jim Miller to Marty Poker Dale by
Speaker 1: John Lynch with Poker Holdsohn touchdown Poker Canal. Happy birthday
Speaker 1: to our favorite quarterback, Caleb william Will you be betting
Speaker 1: again on Caleb Williams this weekend?
Speaker 3: Simon, I hate this game so much because I feel
Speaker 3: like I have to go against the Bears.
Speaker 2: I feel like I'm blind.
Speaker 1: You too, Yeah, it's too much.
Speaker 2: Much. It's not a Tomlins spot like we make it
Speaker 2: out to be.
Speaker 3: Evan had some really great stats in this game, and
Speaker 3: the biggest one I took away from this one was
Speaker 3: just as a road underdog, what.
Speaker 2: Tomlin's been doing lately.
Speaker 3: He's actually lost four straight straight up and against the spread,
Speaker 3: and that's the first time it's happened for Pittsburgh since
Speaker 3: twenty eleven, so it's kind of interesting they've he's actually struggled.
Speaker 2: In this spot on the road as a dog as
Speaker 2: of late.
Speaker 3: But it's like, all right, what kind of Bear stats
Speaker 3: I have to go against here, because I just can't.
Speaker 3: We've talked about the Bears have had a horseshoe up
Speaker 3: their ass now for five six weeks, Like it's just
Speaker 3: been incredible the games they pulled out in one where
Speaker 3: they just they're not playing their best, but they're just
Speaker 3: so well coached and they just find a way.
Speaker 2: They just keep believing in themselves.
Speaker 3: And there's is a unique spot Bears who won three
Speaker 3: straight games by five points or less in the last
Speaker 3: twenty years teams in this exact spot. They went twelve
Speaker 3: and twenty three against the spread in that six game,
Speaker 3: so historically it usually catches up to them. More so
Speaker 3: the fact that they're a favorite now is it because
Speaker 3: of Mason Rudolph, Like we've bet we've bet Pittsburgh with
Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph Duck College's We've we've bet this before in
Speaker 3: the spot chat. So like the fact of the public
Speaker 3: hates Pittsburgh.
Speaker 2: The public's over the Bears as well.
Speaker 3: Finally, what it feels like every week the public's kind
Speaker 3: of gone against the Bears year. It feels like it's
Speaker 3: the right spot to take Steelers. But it's it's pain
Speaker 3: in me. I just I don't want to go. But
Speaker 3: there's something magic about this Bears team. They're just so
Speaker 3: well coached, and I think they've got to run the
Speaker 3: ball against the Steelers team. But we've seen it, Tom
Speaker 3: fies away and I just think this is just playing
Speaker 3: the number.
Speaker 2: It's it's too it's too big A plus three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, as much as it pains me to
Speaker 1: bet against the Bears in this spot. All of it
Speaker 1: just yuels that we've seen this before, right. We've seen
Speaker 1: this with the Vikings a couple of years ago. We
Speaker 1: saw this with the Giants and Brian Dayball's first year.
Speaker 1: We saw it with the Chiefs last year. There are
Speaker 1: teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine,
Speaker 1: ten games where they win by one score, and you
Speaker 1: keep expecting it every week, like how do you how
Speaker 1: do you figure out when the aggression? Regression is going
Speaker 1: to come? That's what makes it so difficult because at
Speaker 1: some point you either got to get off the train
Speaker 1: and try to time that perfectly. It's like timing the market.
Speaker 1: How do you time the freaking market? You know, who's
Speaker 1: everybody selling your team?
Speaker 3: Like they're graded as one of the worst teams in
Speaker 3: NFL history in the last like twenty five years to
Speaker 3: be seven and three, just like all the underlying numbers
Speaker 3: and data. Totally, that's why I love football. It's like,
Speaker 3: it don't matter. You gotta just line up and play
Speaker 3: the game. They keep finding a way. So I get
Speaker 3: what people are saying, but end of the day, it
Speaker 3: doesn't matter.
Speaker 1: Meaning it doesn't matter. We're taking the Steelers.
Speaker 2: Still taking the Steelers.
Speaker 3: I'm just saying. It's a Bears fan, I wouldn't care.
Speaker 3: It's like, we know our team's not that good, but
Speaker 3: we're seven and three.
Speaker 2: Who cares?
Speaker 1: Yeah? Oh totally, but I did. I will tell you this.
Speaker 1: I will tell you this as a Bears fan. You know,
Speaker 1: I watch all the videos Ben Johnson in the locker room.
Speaker 1: He's amazing. You know, good, better, best, never let it rest,
Speaker 1: all those kinds of things. I also thought to myself,
Speaker 1: oh my god, there's still seven games left. In the year.
Speaker 1: I can't the way the Bears have played and the
Speaker 1: way they won they've won these games, I could easily
Speaker 1: see them losing their next seven games.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the magic numbers three to me. If you can
Speaker 3: get three wins with you guys have a brutal schedule
Speaker 3: in the season, you can get the really mean, you
Speaker 3: can get the ten wins. That's why I like, it's
Speaker 3: tough for me here where I know you how desperate
Speaker 3: there they need to win this one. But that doesn't
Speaker 3: matter in football, Like, it doesn't matter if you need
Speaker 3: to win this game. It's it's really about the number.
Speaker 3: And yeah, I just think plus three and the Steelers is.
Speaker 1: Right, all right, Simon talking about numbers New York Giants
Speaker 1: visiting the Detroit Lions. This number has moved from eleven
Speaker 1: and a half to ten and a half since the
Speaker 1: Lions got just beat up, hammered, bamboozled by the Philadelphia
Speaker 1: Eagles on Sunday night and look the Giants. We talked
Speaker 1: about it last week with Jamis. We had to bet
Speaker 1: on Jamis just for a little taste because of the
Speaker 1: roller coaster that is the full Jamis experience, and we
Speaker 1: got it with Jamis last week where he had that
Speaker 1: team in contention to win the game, leading for much
Speaker 1: of it. Then they're down seven points with forty four
Speaker 1: seconds left around the Packers eighteen yard line. Jamis goes
Speaker 1: back to pass, throws it to the end zone. Jalen
Speaker 1: Hyatt picked off in the corner of the end zone.
Speaker 1: You can't blame Jamis for this one A covered because
Speaker 1: the number was seven and a half, so God bless,
Speaker 1: but also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route.
Speaker 1: And this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy. It was
Speaker 1: Jalen Hyatt not doing his job. I don't know that
Speaker 1: the Giants have the same deadcat bounce against a desperate
Speaker 1: desperate and that's what they are right now.
Speaker 4: Detroit Lionstein, it's shockingly going to be my Simon says,
Speaker 4: to give me, Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bett
Speaker 4: minus ten and a half.
Speaker 2: I want to play a game.
Speaker 3: Simon says, Wow, it's it's a big favorite.
Speaker 2: But it's really about this lines and how we always
Speaker 2: just play this spot and it's just good to us.
Speaker 3: We always talk about giving out long term winners, and
Speaker 3: this is the definition of one. Tons of stats here
Speaker 3: why it's so good to back the Lions here And
Speaker 3: it's a unique spot, right, You're coming off a week
Speaker 3: where data converted a single fourth down where immediately issue
Speaker 3: as that happened.
Speaker 2: It's good. I was like, all right, I gotta find
Speaker 2: some staff.
Speaker 1: Hello, de try.
Speaker 3: You what is this Lion's team like after they don't
Speaker 3: get a single fourth down the week before? Shockingly, they're
Speaker 3: nine and one straight up, which you know, okay, they
Speaker 3: do bounce back after the struggle of the week, but
Speaker 3: they're eight and two against the spread in games after
Speaker 3: they fail to cover a fourth down, so pretty imparent
Speaker 3: they've bounce back in this game, and those games they've covered,
Speaker 3: they've covered by an average of ten points per game
Speaker 3: in that spot. So that's just bringing in what it's
Speaker 3: like after they struggle on fourth down. Now, let's get
Speaker 3: to all the golf stats. We know golf in these games,
Speaker 3: he's always big a bouncing back because lines have just
Speaker 3: been so good, and we've talked the last three years
Speaker 3: they've been seventy percent against the spread, So you're gonna
Speaker 3: have some really good stats with golf and Campbell as
Speaker 3: a combo, and all of a straight up loss, they're
Speaker 3: twenty two and eight against the spread, So they just
Speaker 3: tend to bounce back and the.
Speaker 2: Books don't account for it, so we always play that spot.
Speaker 3: And they're actually shockingly covered thirteen in a row in
Speaker 3: this spot, so they haven't not covered after a loss
Speaker 3: since November one of twenty twenty two.
Speaker 2: Shout out to my guy Evan Abrams.
Speaker 3: That's an amazing stat where it's like they're just a
Speaker 3: machine after these type of losses and you go, okay, well,
Speaker 3: this is a big spread.
Speaker 2: What is their record when the spread's above four?
Speaker 3: Golf and Campbell, they're perfect eight to zero against the
Speaker 3: spread when the spread is higher than four after a
Speaker 3: straight up loss, So feels like a really good bounce
Speaker 3: back spot. We talk of the time Golf indoors after
Speaker 3: a loss twenty four and seven against the spread, So
Speaker 3: it's like, again, it's just all points to it, and
Speaker 3: you just look at the on field matchup wise, the
Speaker 3: getting upfield can be neutered by the Giants with a
Speaker 3: good run game, and we know what Detroit want to do.
Speaker 2: They want to run the ball.
Speaker 3: They just kind of get it done against an Eagles
Speaker 3: team that just has a really different front. They arguet
Speaker 3: great against the run because they have great linebackers, which
Speaker 3: the Giants do not. That's the Giant's biggest weakness. So
Speaker 3: love the match of the Lions, love all the trends
Speaker 3: for this Lions team. And yeah, I can't believe in
Speaker 3: making an over ten point favorite my favorite bet, but
Speaker 3: I've just been been heavy into it, so I figure
Speaker 3: out to give it out.
Speaker 1: Can I support you because I want to support you,
Speaker 1: because I will support you? Which Lions team are we getting?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 1: That's what people are going to ask. Are we getting
Speaker 1: the Lions and outdoors week one, who scored six points
Speaker 1: against the Packers? Are we getting the Lions outdoors in
Speaker 1: Week eleven who scored nine points against the Eagles? Or
Speaker 1: are we getting the Lions in Week two who beat
Speaker 1: the Bears at home indoors by thirty one? Are we
Speaker 1: getting the team to beat the Browns indoors at home
Speaker 1: by twenty four? A We're getting the team to beat
Speaker 1: the Bucks indoors at home by fifteen.
Speaker 3: It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been
Speaker 3: this excited about the Lions. Talk about rescoring the roar,
Speaker 3: listen to them.
Speaker 1: Who do we think the Giants are more like? The
Speaker 1: Bearers in week two, the Browns whenever. That's why I
Speaker 1: feel confident, like everything you just said about a bounce
Speaker 1: back spot on Jared Goff and this team has shown
Speaker 1: us enough that they know how to manage when things
Speaker 1: aren't going well, and they will have a sort of
Speaker 1: mentality that does not accept this kind of performance. We've
Speaker 1: already seen it multiple times this year. I do believe
Speaker 1: we will see it again this week. You get the
Speaker 1: Giants betting against Jamis, and the full Jamis experience does
Speaker 1: not scare me here. Simon, you're my bff, You're Mike Campadre,
Speaker 1: you're my co host. I'm with you one hundred percent
Speaker 1: minus ten and a half for this. I will ask
Speaker 1: that in return you support me later in the show.
Speaker 3: That's fair, And like I said, it's just a unique
Speaker 3: spot lines. That was the first time they have scored
Speaker 3: double digits in like fifty games, so you know they
Speaker 3: got embarrassedlack we last week putting them nine points, and
Speaker 3: you know, I just don't think the public will be
Speaker 3: on him here.
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm making it this bet.
Speaker 3: I just don't think people are a little scared off
Speaker 3: by them right now, and they might be sucked in
Speaker 3: on this Giants team.
Speaker 2: This number, I just I want you to take the
Speaker 2: Lions here. It's too low. This number ship closer to thirteen.
Speaker 3: But you're getting some points here because one team covered
Speaker 3: and looked pretty well, played pretty well, where the Lions
Speaker 3: just got embarrassed. And that's the last thing people remember.
Speaker 1: Look, we do have to ask why do we think
Speaker 1: it moved from eleven and a half to ten and
Speaker 1: a half on you know, Sunday night and Monday, because
Speaker 1: that wasn't the public betting into the eleven and a half.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean the professionalism bent the Giants this
Speaker 3: year and it's been good for him, So it's probably
Speaker 3: what it is. They just they like the Giants the profitable,
Speaker 3: but the Giants.
Speaker 1: This year we don't. And we'll take all the sharp calls.
Speaker 2: Yeah we really haven't.
Speaker 1: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens. Ravens are thirteen and
Speaker 1: a half, has moved down half a point. We're already
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, We're already on the Lions. I feel
Speaker 1: no need to figure out a way to bet the
Speaker 1: Ravens and I can't find a way to bet the Jets.
Speaker 3: I don't know, I shockingly kind of like the Ravens,
Speaker 3: but I get what you're saying.
Speaker 2: I just I can't get over how bad this Jets
Speaker 2: team is and terrible. Like my biggest.
Speaker 3: Issue is Lamar in this team. They're definitely not worthy
Speaker 3: of this number in any sense. They have not played
Speaker 3: well consistently at all this season. The hardest part for
Speaker 3: me is just going through all the numbers where it's
Speaker 3: like the more the Ravens they own the Jets every
Speaker 3: time they play. They just dominate this team historically. And
Speaker 3: you know at home, Ravens six and zero straight up
Speaker 3: five and one against the spread against the Jets, winning
Speaker 3: by fourteen points per game historically. And I don't know
Speaker 3: if people know this. The Ravens only been around since
Speaker 3: like ninety nine or two thousand. It's not like a
Speaker 3: long battle. They've just dominated in the last twenty five years.
Speaker 3: Lamar is more of an eight point favorite his career.
Speaker 3: He's sixteen to eleven against this spread. So if you
Speaker 3: are going to bet the Ravens, I get it. I
Speaker 3: think me and Chat I've already talked about we're allar
Speaker 3: enough favorites this week. I can avoid this, but I
Speaker 3: get it like I'm tempted here. I just think this
Speaker 3: Jets teams atrocious and they could easily get rolled here
Speaker 3: in many different ways. So I got away over the
Speaker 3: last week with Cleveland against this Ravens team. I'm not
Speaker 3: trying to go back to the well the Jets. So
Speaker 3: I'll end up in my pick pulls, probably end up
Speaker 3: on the Ravens. But I know, people, I'm on three
Speaker 3: huge favorites this week. It's it's a weird week.
Speaker 1: Well, look that I was just gonna say, Like the
Speaker 1: flip side is we just bet the Ravens to cover
Speaker 1: our bases to make sure if we're betting three big favorites,
Speaker 1: we got them all, and we don't choose the two
Speaker 1: that lose and we leave out the one that wins.
Speaker 3: My buddy is a sucker who bets ten point like teasers.
Speaker 3: He is loving this week, and I'm like, my god,
Speaker 3: this is usually not a good sign.
Speaker 1: The first game. I agree with you about Lamar. In
Speaker 1: the first game against Miami, to me, he wasn't great,
Speaker 1: but that was sort of an ease yourself in game
Speaker 1: after the injury, and last week we knew we didn't
Speaker 1: expect him to be great because it was against the Browns.
Speaker 1: It was a rock fight. This to me feels like
Speaker 1: when with the Ravens having now for in a row,
Speaker 1: this is when Lamar sort of gets comfortable and unleashes,
Speaker 1: knowing that he's not against division rival on the road
Speaker 1: and it's not his first game back, when he's a
Speaker 1: little bit still a little bit tentative. So I can't
Speaker 1: bet the Jets. So it's Ravens or or nothing. Here
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Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, and
Speaker 1: the Bengals are seven and a half point favorites. Joe
Speaker 1: Flacco may still be banged up. Jamar Chase will not
Speaker 1: be in the game because he was spitting on Jalen Ramsey.
Speaker 1: Everything about this game with a Bengals secondary that is
Speaker 1: so suspect and so susceptible to big plays. Second most
Speaker 1: yards per past, the most EPA, highest EPA per past
Speaker 1: the forced fourth, lowest QB pressure rate. I don't think
Speaker 1: I need to go on yet. The fact that the
Speaker 1: hook is still out there baiting us is weird to
Speaker 1: me because it's clear the books are just hoping against hope,
Speaker 1: against hope. The professional betters are going to come in
Speaker 1: on the Bengals because they know how much money they're
Speaker 1: going to get on the Patriots.
Speaker 3: Yeah, easy bet, easy spot, long term winner if Bengals.
Speaker 2: If it's Joe Flacco, it's a no brainer.
Speaker 3: But if it's not, I am happy to not have
Speaker 3: zero dollars and not invest in this game and walk
Speaker 3: away from it. So I got money to burn, I
Speaker 3: can bet. I'll bet the Bangal here people want to
Speaker 3: be patient and make sure it's Flacco. I can't fault
Speaker 3: you for it because I will not have any money
Speaker 3: invested in a Bengals quarterback not named Joe Flacco or
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow.
Speaker 2: So to me, if you're looking for why this.
Speaker 3: Is such a magical spots, it's the key thing we
Speaker 3: talk about all the time with football is how hard
Speaker 3: it is to win consistently. It is so hard to
Speaker 3: string together wins consistently. And that's what's been shocking about
Speaker 3: this Patriots team. And they're in a unique spot. They've
Speaker 3: won eight straight games, this team that like again another
Speaker 3: team the nerds are just beating up because they're just
Speaker 3: not as good as their record perceives and how the
Speaker 3: public per season.
Speaker 2: They're just simply not so.
Speaker 3: It's I think where I like, I love and respect
Speaker 3: for Abel and I think that's part of the record
Speaker 3: and how great Mays played obviously at MVP level, but
Speaker 3: again eight straight games they won.
Speaker 2: Now they're on the road.
Speaker 3: Teams in this exact spot since twenty ten, fourteen and
Speaker 3: thirty four against the spread. Nightmare, And like you just
Speaker 3: keep going back, you know, teams an eight wins streak
Speaker 3: are thirty nine sixty sixty one and two against the spread,
Speaker 3: so thirty nine percent since twenty ten. That's eleven and
Speaker 3: twenty and one against the spread since twenty twenty. So
Speaker 3: like all these numbers like you give you people, it's
Speaker 3: just a really really bad spot. It's just hard to
Speaker 3: play at a high level consistently and just not have
Speaker 3: things bounce against you.
Speaker 2: Like we say all the time.
Speaker 3: It's a really stupid game with a weird shad ball.
Speaker 3: It's just not going to bounce your way and eventually
Speaker 3: it's going to catch up to you. So we're simply
Speaker 3: playing the number here. There is zero information a data
Speaker 3: I could give you why to back this Bengals team
Speaker 3: on the field. They are terrible defensively. The Patriots, especially
Speaker 3: scheme wise, can outscheme them. Drake may is playing at
Speaker 3: such a high level, it's just simply playing a number
Speaker 3: on an overvalied Patriots team.
Speaker 2: Are they better than the Bengals? Yeah?
Speaker 3: Are they seven and a half points better when it's
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco? No, that's that's an egregious number where I
Speaker 3: think that Bengals can keep it close and this this
Speaker 3: Patriot's defense can be passed on. So it's just once
Speaker 3: again not going to be hammered because it's out. We
Speaker 3: don't know yet he's gonna be the quarterback, but historically
Speaker 3: it's just a bad spot for this Patriots team. But
Speaker 3: the books, the number reflects that if this was six
Speaker 3: and a half, I could talk us into taking the
Speaker 3: Patriots now it was still under seven.
Speaker 2: But it's not.
Speaker 3: It's just moved too much. In my opinion, I got
Speaker 3: to give about the seven and a half on the Bengals.
Speaker 1: Totally agree. This is a week where there's a lot
Speaker 1: of from a historical betting perspective and from the way
Speaker 1: professionals like to look at these games, and we've got
Speaker 1: a couple of them coming up. Weird spots, numbers in
Speaker 1: which the advantage is to the team that just got
Speaker 1: blown out and it makes you uncomfortable. And one of
Speaker 1: those games is definitely the Cincinnati Bengals plus seven and
Speaker 1: a half. They are just begging you to take that
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I'm with you. I'll be curious
Speaker 1: to see. Like on Thursday, we're gonna have another conversation
Speaker 1: about this one. The more about the quarterback. But if
Speaker 1: that seven and a half is out there, I would
Speaker 1: not be uncomfortable playing it, like the confidence I have
Speaker 1: today not having a guess that was just guy. We
Speaker 1: got so many games going to be brutal for us
Speaker 1: this week, Indy at Kansas City. Kansas City is a
Speaker 1: three point favorite. This one has moved from three and
Speaker 1: a half down to three. It looks like it could
Speaker 1: move back to three and a half. The juice is
Speaker 1: telling us it's going to move back to three and
Speaker 1: a half. I have an opinion. I think I know
Speaker 1: where you are. That's my opinion. I just want to
Speaker 1: make this statement. I want to sort of illuminate you. Ready, Yeah,
Speaker 1: what defense gave Mahomes the most trouble in the early
Speaker 1: part of this decade? Was it the bills? Uh no
Speaker 1: you start no, no, no, no, no, just say yes
Speaker 1: or no, yes or no? Was it the Bills? Go
Speaker 1: with me on my gimmick? Here was it the Ravens?
Speaker 1: No Cincinnati Bengals. Who was the team that consistently beat
Speaker 1: Who was the team that said they owned Patrick Mahomes?
Speaker 1: Remember all the fights between the mayors of Cincinnati and
Speaker 1: Kansas City. Who is the defensive coordinator for that Bengals team?
Speaker 1: Who is now the defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts?
Speaker 1: Lou anroumo I looked at the stats twenty twenty one
Speaker 1: when the Bengals went to the Super Bowl and beat
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in the playoffs, and twenty twenty five with
Speaker 1: the Colts defensively, the stats are almost exactly the same
Speaker 1: running I would say eighty percent of the same scheme.
Speaker 1: If this Colts defense is healthy, can they get into
Speaker 1: Mahomes Lanes the way those Bengals teams that gave them
Speaker 1: the most trouble used to do?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 1: Why are you laughing at me?
Speaker 2: It's you. I just let how long you go with
Speaker 2: some of these things? I don't know.
Speaker 3: I felt like we were gonna take I'm gonna take
Speaker 3: the Colts no matter what.
Speaker 2: I wanted to get back to three and a half.
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to force an this show, but
Speaker 3: this was gonna be what mis Simon says if it
Speaker 3: was three and a half start hard Rock.
Speaker 2: I really love the Colts.
Speaker 3: It's stupid, but there's certain teams players just struggle with,
Speaker 3: and Mahomes has always struggled against the Colts, doesn't matter
Speaker 3: who the quarterback has been.
Speaker 2: I mean, he literally lost in his career.
Speaker 3: He has one and two straight up and against the
Speaker 3: spread against the Colts. His two losses one was Matt Ryan,
Speaker 3: the other one was Jacoby Brissett, So Matt Ryan in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, Jacoby Brissett and I don't even know
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen. He's just struggled against him
Speaker 3: for whatever reason that is. And it's a unique spot.
Speaker 3: It's a Colts team off of bye week, which you know,
Speaker 3: bad teams, I don't think bye weeks are that big
Speaker 3: of a deal, but really well coached teams, I think
Speaker 3: it is a big deal. And the Colts, to me,
Speaker 3: are really well coached team, even how bad their defense is.
Speaker 2: They've been really competitive in every game they've been this year.
Speaker 3: And you know, it all goes back, it goes back
Speaker 3: to this Mahomes team, it's not the same mahone And
Speaker 3: we've said it this year. There is something a little
Speaker 3: different and it's starting to show up what the difference is.
Speaker 2: They're zero to five in one score games.
Speaker 1: It's like we talked about it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, like at the end of.
Speaker 3: The day, that's the biggest thing, right, it's just not
Speaker 3: winning close games and just doesn't feel like a game
Speaker 3: they blow out, right, I don't know about you. I
Speaker 3: don't think they blow out the Colts. It can happen, right,
Speaker 3: It's Daniel Jones. We know we're been into. He could
Speaker 3: totally pumpkin throw three four picks and that's how it goes.
Speaker 3: But just matchup wise, it's it's really a two. This
Speaker 3: number should be most people have this model two one
Speaker 3: and a half. The Chiefs are getting the bump from
Speaker 3: what they've done before and the same thing I talked
Speaker 3: about that Broncos number. I just they weren't a three
Speaker 3: and a half point better team. I didn't think they'd
Speaker 3: went out right, But you know that's that's the year
Speaker 3: it's been for this Chiefs team.
Speaker 2: So a lot of unique stats to back here with
Speaker 2: this Colts team.
Speaker 3: It's a rare spot right, it's a cold team going
Speaker 3: off of by facing against a Mahomes team and Chiefs
Speaker 3: team teams in this exact spot against Mahomes there's six
Speaker 3: and three against the spread, covering by five points in
Speaker 3: those matchups, So Mahomes struggled when those teams are underdogs
Speaker 3: against Mahomes in this spot.
Speaker 2: So off of bye week.
Speaker 3: Playing Mahomes, they are six and one against the spread.
Speaker 3: The only loss forty nine ers in that Super Bowl
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: So historically this is a good spot.
Speaker 3: Think about what needed to go right in that Super
Speaker 3: Bowl for Mahomes not only to cover, but win that game.
Speaker 3: I don't know people remember, it's like everything broke their
Speaker 3: way in that fourth quarter. So it feels like we
Speaker 3: have a lot of things work in our favorite with
Speaker 3: this Colts team. It's really about the line. I'm not
Speaker 3: going to make people bad a bad line like hard rock.
Speaker 3: We say they're a sharp book. The Pros have hit
Speaker 3: the Colts. They bet this down, shop around, go find
Speaker 3: the three and have find the hook on the Colts
Speaker 3: because we'll need it. This game easily could be the
Speaker 3: Chiefs winning by three. We know Mahomes is due to
Speaker 3: have a type of game. But it's just about the
Speaker 3: number for me. I just I think we're getting inflated
Speaker 3: line of the Colts, well rested Colts team that going
Speaker 3: to be able to move a ball against this Chiefs defense.
Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay. Green Bay is a six and
Speaker 1: a half point favorite at home. Right now, Josh Jacobs
Speaker 1: is questionable. It's possible we're gonna have to make a
Speaker 1: call on this game without knowing his availability. At the
Speaker 1: end of the day, I'm not sure that matters because
Speaker 1: the Vikings defense continues to be suspect against the run,
Speaker 1: giving up one hundred and forty yards to the Bears.
Speaker 1: What we do know is that JJ McCarthy is very
Speaker 1: good in the first fifteen and very good when his
Speaker 1: team is down in the fourth quarter, and in between,
Speaker 1: he looks like a rookie who's overthinking, not thinking inaccurate
Speaker 1: when he's not pressured. If this were seven, do we
Speaker 1: bet the number and bet the Vikings assuming cardiac JJ
Speaker 1: will kick open the back door at six and a half.
Speaker 1: I'm not really into this game.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're both in the same page.
Speaker 3: I just we don't trust either quarterback or either a
Speaker 3: team right now, Green Bay or the Vikings. This feels
Speaker 3: like a Vikings number. I am shocked they've kept it
Speaker 3: under seven. Maybe I'm underrating all the injuries the Packers
Speaker 3: have suffered, But how can you trust JJ.
Speaker 2: On the road. He's just so inconsistent, He's so bad.
Speaker 3: You would think this would be such a big moment,
Speaker 3: too big of a spot for him to show up.
Speaker 3: But my god, they're just getting pounded by Packers and
Speaker 3: money and this is touch seven a couple of times
Speaker 3: and come right back down, so slay. The pros are
Speaker 3: on the Vikings, they're back on them here, and yeah,
Speaker 3: it's a it's a unique spot, right the Packers for
Speaker 3: some reason LA floor struggle against KOC. Like historically they're
Speaker 3: in a weird spot too, where they've lost three straight
Speaker 3: or they've lost two straight I should say against the
Speaker 3: spread and straight up against the Vikings, which hasn't happened
Speaker 3: in since two thousand and five for the Packers. So
Speaker 3: whatever it is these last couple of years, I guess
Speaker 3: going towards the Vikings. But I still think some of
Speaker 3: those stats, it's like I just I can't get over
Speaker 3: how bad JJ is.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think we're on the same boat. I'll
Speaker 2: pass this one.
Speaker 3: I probably should be on the Packers, but I just
Speaker 3: I can't trust them right now.
Speaker 2: Is big favorites agree.
Speaker 1: I don't know if we're going to agree on this
Speaker 1: next one, but I asked you for support and this
Speaker 1: is going to be one of those games. Cleveland at
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Las Vegas right now is a three point favorite.
Speaker 1: It's moving higher most books that are three and a half,
Speaker 1: which makes me sort of not want to offer it.
Speaker 1: And it's almost Chad's choice. The Las Vegas Raiders minus
Speaker 1: three look last night was ugly. And when George Pickens
Speaker 1: starts looking like he's Darnell Washington, the three hundred pound
Speaker 1: tight end for the Steelers, and he's running over people,
Speaker 1: he's running through people, he's stiff arming people. Plus he's
Speaker 1: making guys look like they're not even trying to tackle them.
Speaker 1: That is a bad look for Raiders, for the Raiders defense,
Speaker 1: it's a bad look for people betting on the Raiders.
Speaker 1: It's a bad look for people rooting for the Raiders.
Speaker 1: Gino did his part getting the team into or just
Speaker 1: outside the red zone, throwing picks, taking sacks, not getting
Speaker 1: them touchdowns. However, team coming off a blowout at home
Speaker 1: against a team that just had its max effort in
Speaker 1: the prior week, a Browns team we know gives up
Speaker 1: ten more points per game on the road than it
Speaker 1: does at home. This feels like a light them up,
Speaker 1: Gino moment. Prove you're a professional. I'm on the Raiders
Speaker 1: a minus three.
Speaker 3: Let's have a conversation to a minus three and a half,
Speaker 3: because that's where I think we're gonna have to make
Speaker 3: a real decision. Because I agree with you and everything
Speaker 3: you've said. My biggest reason just for you to take
Speaker 3: the Raiders here is just Sanders possibly might have put
Speaker 3: up the worst quarterbacking we've ever seen, just data wives like,
Speaker 3: which is shocking if you go through how horrible some
Speaker 3: quarterbacks are playing. I mean, I'm blank on his name.
Speaker 3: I just had I just lost it. I remember we
Speaker 3: had a guy who started against the Chargers. I think
Speaker 3: he threw like five or six picks in his first start.
Speaker 1: Oh, I know you were talking about he played for
Speaker 1: the Bills for a while too. I think that's the
Speaker 1: fifth interception tonight from.
Speaker 3: We've just had a run of just horrible quarterbacks, and
Speaker 3: even that, Sanders somehow did worse in his performance, so
Speaker 3: I'll support it. It's a unique spot too, where it's
Speaker 3: it's a Browns quarterback making their first start, which we've joked,
Speaker 3: but we've been playing it. We automatically play the other
Speaker 3: side and take the money line because it's it's got
Speaker 3: proof to it that they're ow to seventeen their last
Speaker 3: seventeen quarters for Sanders. The last time a quarterback is
Speaker 3: one making his first start for the Browns was nineteen
Speaker 3: ninety five.
Speaker 2: Do you remember the name of the quarterback?
Speaker 1: It wasn't Tim Couch was it. First name was Eric
Speaker 1: Eric Kramer. I don't know.
Speaker 2: His last name was spelled ze i e R.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he played quarterback for Georgia. I think his number.
Speaker 2: I've never heard of him. So you remember him from
Speaker 2: back in the day.
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I remember from back in the day.
Speaker 2: So that's the last time a Browns quarterback has started
Speaker 2: and won.
Speaker 4: His first their exire I think was his name, Yeah,
Speaker 4: nineteen ninety five.
Speaker 2: Check. Yeah, So that's what I.
Speaker 3: Want to be against you and be like this is
Speaker 3: we're backing Genos Smith, which you know, anyone can look
Speaker 3: up the numbers.
Speaker 2: Gino Smith.
Speaker 3: I think he's eleven and twenty against the spread as
Speaker 3: a favorite. He just you hate him as a dog.
Speaker 3: You don't want to bet him as a favorite. He's
Speaker 3: even worse as a favorite. He's terrible as favorite.
Speaker 2: But too late.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like a unique spot. Are we going
Speaker 3: to take Raderos on minus three and a half? That's
Speaker 3: that's the choice there. And once again it's there's a
Speaker 3: bunch of spots, uh, numbers that are just bad against
Speaker 3: the Browns. I haven't sanders here the Browns since twenty
Speaker 3: twenty two. When they're playing a team with a one
Speaker 3: percentage below forty percent on the road, they are two
Speaker 3: and nine straight up, one and eleven against the spread.
Speaker 3: They've lost seven in a row in this spot, and
Speaker 3: we've talked about they're just a different team. They're terrible
Speaker 3: in the road. This Browns team, their defense just simply
Speaker 3: doesn't travel. So I hate this one. I was hoping
Speaker 3: we don't get avoid it, not bet it. But I
Speaker 3: know there's a lot of numbers we love the Raiders.
Speaker 3: So I'll be up front people, I'm gonna be heavy
Speaker 3: on the money line of the Raiders. I don't know
Speaker 3: how much I'm gonna touch minus three and a half.
Speaker 3: I just I can't get over it. G you know,
Speaker 3: minus three and a half favorite, But I have a
Speaker 3: feeling chat might get me there come Sunday morning.
Speaker 1: Well, listen, if we're not gonna do Geno, then let's
Speaker 1: do something else that's really gross. And this one is
Speaker 1: gonna be Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock Bat. I
Speaker 1: am going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two and a
Speaker 1: half against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 2: Are you sure you want to do this? Are you
Speaker 2: willing to make a choice? My choice? We can't run
Speaker 2: from way? Are sharp news can just see it? You
Speaker 2: know what I mean?
Speaker 1: I know, I know. I just bet the Cardinals plus
Speaker 1: three against the Niners didn't work out for us. I know.
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett just sent a just set a record forty
Speaker 1: seven completions, going forty seven to fifty seven in the
Speaker 1: game against the Niners. This is a team that started
Speaker 1: off playing very competitive and has been trending worse and
Speaker 1: worse and worse and worse every single week. But I
Speaker 1: don't think Trevor Lawrence is long for the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Speaker 1: Let me give you some stats, because the Jags just
Speaker 1: beat the Chargers thirty five to six. Liam Cone basically
Speaker 1: took the ball out of Trevor Lawrence's hands in that game.
Speaker 1: On the first TD drive of the game in the
Speaker 1: first quarter, he threw two short passes, there was a
Speaker 1: long DPI and then it was all runs. On the
Speaker 1: third drive of the game, he threw a pick. Overall,
Speaker 1: he was fourteen of twenty two for one hundred and
Speaker 1: fifty three yards. They ran it forty seven times for
Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety two yards. My point is, I
Speaker 1: got a team at home as a dog off a
Speaker 1: blowout against a team that just blew somebody out, and
Speaker 1: if you're just looking at the score, you think that
Speaker 1: it's a really powerhouse team and they're not. I'm just
Speaker 1: not going to be a buyer of the Jags. I'd
Speaker 1: much rather invest in the Cardinals. It's moving to three,
Speaker 1: so like I wish I could have waited and made
Speaker 1: it Chad's choice at plus three. It just hasn't gotten
Speaker 1: there yet.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the backup a little what you're talking about
Speaker 3: bout it being a blowout.
Speaker 2: Since nineteen ninety, we've had teams blow.
Speaker 3: A fourteen point lead entering the fourth quarter a couple
Speaker 3: of times, and they tend to bounce back right the
Speaker 3: following game. So when they do bounce back the game
Speaker 3: after that game, they are seven and twenty four straight up,
Speaker 3: nine and twenty against the spread. And even more so,
Speaker 3: since twenty sixteen, teams in this exact position that this
Speaker 3: Jaguars team is in, they are zero to seven against
Speaker 3: the spread.
Speaker 2: It's just a bad spot.
Speaker 3: The win the game after the comeback, So basically I'm
Speaker 3: blown out or not?
Speaker 2: I shouldn't they blown out?
Speaker 3: They get a team come back by down by fourteen
Speaker 3: to fourth quarter, they win the next game like they did, big,
Speaker 3: big win. They tend to lose the following game, right.
Speaker 3: There's a letdown there. And that's what I like about
Speaker 3: these trends of stark updata because it just shows it
Speaker 3: doesn't matter if it's different teams and the people changed,
Speaker 3: it's it's human like these guys have a letdown.
Speaker 2: It's just only natural.
Speaker 3: On the flip side, this has to be rock Bottom
Speaker 3: buying the Cardinals.
Speaker 2: They did something that I've never seen.
Speaker 3: I'm gonna look into it if it's real, but in
Speaker 3: my life I cannot remember again. Going back twenty five
Speaker 3: years now, Flying Football, a team gave up forty points
Speaker 3: to a divisional opponent and then gave up another forty
Speaker 3: the following week to a divisional opponent. You just don't
Speaker 3: see it, Like they gave up forty four points to
Speaker 3: Seattle then forty one to the forty nine ers. So
Speaker 3: you would think their coach, who's a defensive guy, would
Speaker 3: get it right and this would be a spot they
Speaker 3: would bounce back against Trevor Lawrence and this Jags team.
Speaker 3: Like it's just it feels like a really nice lined
Speaker 3: up spot for this Cardinals team to get a win
Speaker 3: and bounce back where they've struggled. Right, they had that
Speaker 3: huge Monday night game against Dallas, and they've not handled
Speaker 3: it well. They got like I just said, they got
Speaker 3: blown out two games in a row against divisional opponents.
Speaker 3: You expect them to bounce back get right here, and
Speaker 3: like Chad said, this is really about the number. Like
Speaker 3: this Jaguars team, this is going to be a public darling.
Speaker 3: People are hammering right now, and they're undervaluing of Cardinals
Speaker 3: team that, Yeah, they've looked bad, they've been embarrassed. They're
Speaker 3: not three points worse than this Jaguars team and Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3: So I'm with you, Chad, I like the Cardinals here.
Speaker 1: Can we not talk about Atlanta at New Orleans? New
Speaker 1: Orleans is a two point favorite at home. That's astonishing
Speaker 1: to me. Like terrible teams. Falcons went from three to
Speaker 1: two to three and sevens three and seven. Poenix is
Speaker 1: likely out for the year. Tyler Shock versus Kirk Cousins.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's icy hot Bowl too. After the Flacco
Speaker 1: Rogers game between how old these guys are, so let's pass.
Speaker 2: We can.
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm like you, I wanted to be on
Speaker 3: I want to be in Atlanta. Maybe that should be
Speaker 3: assigning me I should be on the Saints though, because
Speaker 3: like you said, you shouldn't have a real opinion on
Speaker 3: this game. I will give some stats just we all
Speaker 3: know how terrible Kirk is, but I really want people
Speaker 3: to hear these numbers just about how atrocious Kirk Cousins
Speaker 3: has been. They are one in five straight up owens,
Speaker 3: six against the spread, and Kirk's last six starts dating
Speaker 3: back the last season and Kirk's career, which again he
Speaker 3: was pretty good.
Speaker 2: The guy made a ton of money.
Speaker 3: He is is eight games against the Saints. He's four
Speaker 3: and four straight up, three and five against the spread,
Speaker 3: against the Saints.
Speaker 2: Even more glaring.
Speaker 3: In his last four games against the Saints, he is
Speaker 3: oh and four against the spread. In the Super Doom,
Speaker 3: he was owing three against the spread. He's just he's
Speaker 3: gotten worse when the numbers back it up. He's consistently
Speaker 3: got worse, and it's hard not to overrate him because
Speaker 3: it's like we're seeing it right now.
Speaker 2: I almost got sucked in.
Speaker 3: I'm getting Kirk at some books of plus two against
Speaker 3: the Saints.
Speaker 2: They almost got me, Chad, they almost got me.
Speaker 3: Even for the show I talked about It's like, man,
Speaker 3: I kind of like the Falcons here, but the more
Speaker 3: you look into the numbers, he's just been atrocious. It's
Speaker 3: just I can't back him here. So I really wanted
Speaker 3: to fade the Saints. Like again, they came off a
Speaker 3: huge win, then had a bye week, you expect them
Speaker 3: just to totally faulter here in this spot. But maybe
Speaker 3: the Falcons are what they are, just one of the
Speaker 3: worst teams in football, loss of five or six straight games.
Speaker 3: Now Kirk Cousins in there, who's just been deader than dead,
Speaker 3: Like I just read those stats.
Speaker 2: He's just been atrocious.
Speaker 3: So yeah, I guess people can pass on it for
Speaker 3: my pickpolls and other stuff.
Speaker 2: I'll play in a bet in the Saint especially at
Speaker 2: minus one and a half.
Speaker 1: Uh Philadelphia Dallas. Dallas is now at hard Rock a
Speaker 1: three point underdog. When this game opened, it was Philadelphia
Speaker 1: minus four and a half, so it's come down quite
Speaker 1: a bit. It's a three and a half in a
Speaker 1: lot of places, but three at hard Rock, so a
Speaker 1: point and a half to a point. I think it's
Speaker 1: one of the hardest games on the board to handicap
Speaker 1: this week because are we buying the Cowboys improved defense,
Speaker 1: you know, with Quinn Williams and all those guys who
Speaker 1: came back and they they got to look good against
Speaker 1: a bad Raiders team? Like are we worried about the
Speaker 1: Eagles offense still now? With Lane Johnson being injured, Fred
Speaker 1: Johnson is playing in his place. I think that's kind
Speaker 1: of a big deal. We've seen how ineffective this offense
Speaker 1: can be without Lane Johnson, and it's more ineffective than
Speaker 1: when they're playing with Lane Johnson. So I'm having a
Speaker 1: hard time with this one.
Speaker 3: Well, We'll say this as an Eagles fan from the top.
Speaker 3: The Eagles are well wearing their Kelly Greens, which they
Speaker 3: are five straight up, four and one against the spread
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three. But no, the the professionals are showing
Speaker 3: their hands here. They just they've taken this number down
Speaker 3: from four and a half to three. Shocking to me.
Speaker 3: Shocking to me. The Eagles are such, so, so much
Speaker 3: better than this Cowboys team in every aspect. The only
Speaker 3: the only spot you feel confident more obviously is the
Speaker 3: Cowboys is the fact that they have a passing offense
Speaker 3: that seems like it travels and it plays pretty well.
Speaker 3: But this is going to be the hardest defense the
Speaker 3: Cowboys have faced obviously this year. So and minus three
Speaker 3: I'm tempted to give up the Eagles here, but I've
Speaker 3: put my money behind the Cowboys at a plus number.
Speaker 3: It's just the Eagles offense is so battering now, it's
Speaker 3: so dysfunctional.
Speaker 2: It has to catch up to them.
Speaker 3: Like they can't keep getting away, keep getting away from
Speaker 3: the need it coming to God or coming to Jesus
Speaker 3: moment here, they just they got to fire the oc
Speaker 3: like it's it's egregious at this point. And this, like
Speaker 3: I talked about coming to the season, my biggest fear
Speaker 3: was Siany won his Super Bowl and now they're letting
Speaker 3: him pick his OC and he picked his friend Kevin
Speaker 3: Patalou who up to this point it's just been egregious.
Speaker 3: The offense is just so bad. It's gotten a zero imagination.
Speaker 3: You only get defended so much. If that's such a
Speaker 3: tough schedule, it's like, well, here is an opportunity. They're
Speaker 3: playing against one of the worst defenses in football. Where
Speaker 3: I get they got guys back, I still think it
Speaker 3: does should not make a difference. Like Gino was one
Speaker 3: that blew that game. They should have had a fourteen
Speaker 3: to three lead to start that game. He had them
Speaker 3: settling for field goals. I just we've seen the Eagles
Speaker 3: team if they get moving, if they get to the
Speaker 3: red gene, they tend to score unless they turn the
Speaker 3: ball over. So yeah, I cannot believe hard rockets hit
Speaker 3: to set three. It's really tempting to me to give
Speaker 3: out the Eagles here, but unfortunately I've already bet the Cowboys,
Speaker 3: so I think it comes back up and it's a
Speaker 3: Cowboys number three and a half. But I minus three.
Speaker 3: If you haven't made a bet, I think that's a
Speaker 3: good Cowboy. Good Eagles number. It's just at this point
Speaker 3: you're betting the Cowboys to win, because that's I don't know,
Speaker 3: I just can't see it. I cannot see this number
Speaker 3: staying at three for this Eagles team. If it's stays
Speaker 3: at three, I might need to load up on this
Speaker 3: Cowboys side, because that's that to tell by the books
Speaker 3: if they hold at that number, because it's gonna be
Speaker 3: Eagles will be one of the more public sides of
Speaker 3: the week if they hold it three.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna want to talk about this game again
Speaker 1: on Thursday, even if we don't think we're gonna have
Speaker 1: it in the final five. I think there's so much
Speaker 1: more to unpack with it, and we need another two
Speaker 1: days to see how the numbers.
Speaker 3: Cowboys on a short week too, It's just I can't
Speaker 3: believe the pros are loaded up on the Cowboys.
Speaker 2: Really interesting, given.
Speaker 3: A win or out situation and the closing moments got
Speaker 3: no team was ever betten. You gotta lot of them.
Speaker 2: I mean, you gotta love the Cowboys. They're the most
Speaker 2: exciting team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Like you pull it out, it's astonishing to me and
Speaker 1: I just wonder, like I feel like they're discounting the
Speaker 1: Eagles off too much and inflating the Cowboys defense too much.
Speaker 1: To me, this feels like a bet on the Cowboys
Speaker 1: defense and that it improved and as much as anything else,
Speaker 1: And we don't know that yet. All we know is
Speaker 1: that they did well against a Raiders team in Gino Smith, who,
Speaker 1: despite the fact we're going to back them this week
Speaker 1: against the Browns, has generally been a terrible, terrible quarterback
Speaker 1: this year. So I can't. I can't get there with
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and I've sort of just been hoping this
Speaker 1: number keeps dropping so I can I can play the Eagles.
Speaker 1: So let's let's put a pin in that one. We're
Speaker 1: definitely going to talk about it.
Speaker 3: And we're definitely playing a fire like we literally we've
Speaker 3: gone three and two two straight weeks, both times Eagles
Speaker 3: have been our third win. So we've been rying them
Speaker 3: here for three straight weeks. But like we keep seeing,
Speaker 3: the public keeps undervaluing them, and it might be happening
Speaker 3: against you. Like you said, if it goes at two
Speaker 3: and a half, how could you avoid that number?
Speaker 1: But that's a telltale sign, right the public loves offense.
Speaker 2: That's true, It's wise time, just laying an egg.
Speaker 1: Every week they're laying an egg.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: And meanwhile, look at the Cowboys just did back through
Speaker 1: four touchdown passes. He sent in records on Monday Night football.
Speaker 1: That's when you won. Fade a team. Let's get to
Speaker 1: the primetime spotlight. We got a Sunday night game. We
Speaker 1: got a Monday night game. We know people like to
Speaker 1: bet these standalone games. Tampa Bay is visiting Los Angeles Rams.
Speaker 1: The Rams are six and a half point favorites. Another
Speaker 1: week where it's a relatively big number for Baker. In
Speaker 1: the Bucks news from yesterday, Bucky Irving may may play
Speaker 1: this week. Last week, Todd Bowles was pretty adamant he
Speaker 1: wasn't going to play. In week eleven. He was limited
Speaker 1: in practice three sessions. Last week yesterday at Todd Bowles
Speaker 1: was a little bit more optimistic that he could play.
Speaker 1: I tend to think a big reason why this Bucks
Speaker 1: team has been struggling. You noted Baker scrambling, which I agree.
Speaker 1: I also think there's a dynamic with Bucky Irving that
Speaker 1: we're just not seeing from this offense that changes it
Speaker 1: for them. That started to become more and more clear
Speaker 1: the last few weeks when they've been struggling, Like the
Speaker 1: problem with the Bucks this past week wasn't their offense,
Speaker 1: it was their defense. And Josh Allen, so isn't this
Speaker 1: number two big for the Rams?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 3: And once again it's just I think I'm too close
Speaker 3: to where, like I think I should be on.
Speaker 2: The Bucks like it was last week.
Speaker 3: But everything's telling me, in my instinct wise to be
Speaker 3: on the Rams here. And the more I dove into
Speaker 3: the numbers, the more I kind of played out that
Speaker 3: way that this is technically a Rams spot and the
Speaker 3: Rams actually played really well here.
Speaker 2: You know, McVeigh shockingly.
Speaker 3: After he plays divisional opponents gets his guys up for
Speaker 3: the following game, he's thirty four and seventeen straight up,
Speaker 3: thirty and seventeen and four against the spread in this
Speaker 3: exact spot after you plays divisional game where Baker on
Speaker 3: the flip side, he's not great in these nighttime games,
Speaker 3: which I always thought was true.
Speaker 2: And like when I.
Speaker 3: Look when I when I'm back and looked at it,
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, how bad is Baker? Especially I want
Speaker 3: to dive into him as a dog because that's what
Speaker 3: he is here.
Speaker 2: So as a field goal underdog at night.
Speaker 3: Baker one in eight straight up, oh and eight since
Speaker 3: he's joined the Tampa this Bucks team. Him and Todd
Speaker 3: Bowles at night together, they're two and eight straight up
Speaker 3: so Bowls obviously, this isn't great in that games either.
Speaker 3: Pretty shocking though that you know, Baker's had thirteen games
Speaker 3: he's played at prime time at night, He's two and
Speaker 3: eleven straight up, four and nine against the spreading those games.
Speaker 2: So whatever it is. Like Baker, we talk, we love
Speaker 2: him as a dog.
Speaker 3: I was like, okay, their numbers at backup that he
Speaker 3: struggles with this game because I just can't believe how
Speaker 3: big the numbers. Once again, it took a miracle for
Speaker 3: that Bills team to cover that number. Like Baker put
Speaker 3: up his best fight, he put up a ton of points.
Speaker 3: Now we both agree Rams defense is much better than
Speaker 3: the Bills defenses. Right, they have not had anywhere near
Speaker 3: as bad as injury luck as that Bill's defense has had.
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's six and a half. I get why
Speaker 3: the pros are beat in this RAMS team. I get
Speaker 3: why this numbers move. So I'll go with the Prosser,
Speaker 3: I'll bet with the Rams, But I hate I hate
Speaker 3: going against Baker, but it just seems like he struggles
Speaker 3: in the spot.
Speaker 1: Hate it. Here's what's interesting. Here's what's interesting. The boxer
Speaker 1: playing Sunday night across the country. They could lose to
Speaker 1: the Rams. The next night across the country in northern California,
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers are visiting the San Francisco forty nine ers.
Speaker 1: They're seven point underdogs. If the Bucks lose and the
Speaker 1: Panthers pull out another miracle, which tends to be their
Speaker 1: mo all of a sudden, the Panthers could be in
Speaker 1: first place in the NFC South. And I cannot get
Speaker 1: to the Niners minus seven in this game because I
Speaker 1: think there are so many problems with their defensive backfield
Speaker 1: right now, and we're seeing it week after week after week.
Speaker 1: Brock Perty coming back is great, that rush offense. When
Speaker 1: Perty is there, Kittle is there, McCaffrey has more opportunities.
Speaker 1: He does called the game differently, like he sees the
Speaker 1: defense differently. He puts players in different position once they
Speaker 1: go into checks and audibles and things like that. But
Speaker 1: then I'm talking about then Mac Jones. I think the
Speaker 1: real difference here is Bryce Young scrambling stepping up in
Speaker 1: the pocket being accurate against the depleted Niners secondary. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna have to be on the Panthers at plus seven.
Speaker 2: I am too.
Speaker 3: I just do not get this number. It's another game.
Speaker 3: I'm a want to dive into more. Because we talked
Speaker 3: about it Sunday night. I couldn't believe it. I could
Speaker 3: not believe it again, the Panthers plus seven, I mean
Speaker 3: hard rock here has moved to the six and a half,
Speaker 3: which feels like it's the right line movement. You know,
Speaker 3: how how do the Panthers and Bryce you Young handle
Speaker 3: him throwing for four hundred and fifty yards and three
Speaker 3: touchdowns a week before, right, It's got to historically be
Speaker 3: a bad spot the following game.
Speaker 2: It's just you can't duplicate that, and.
Speaker 3: It's it's a weird spot for this team where, you know,
Speaker 3: since twenty eighteen, this Panthers team, when they're coming off
Speaker 3: a game where they scored thirty plus points, they're five
Speaker 3: and sixteen against the spread, I mean, just a disaster.
Speaker 3: They're two and thirteen straight up and against the spread
Speaker 3: in their last fifteen times in this exact spot. So
Speaker 3: we're basically betting like we did last week. We need
Speaker 3: Bryce s youungk to be the difference. We need him
Speaker 3: to be the superhero because the trends are just terrible
Speaker 3: for this Panthers team.
Speaker 1: They just we always need that their defense is terrible.
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be terrible. Christian McCaffrey could run for
Speaker 1: a thousand yards in this game.
Speaker 2: He could.
Speaker 3: And what I keep going back to is just fading
Speaker 3: this foreigners team. There's tons of trends we've been going
Speaker 3: on this year about fade them after their wins and
Speaker 3: just how bad they've been at home as well. Like this,
Speaker 3: you know this year we've talked about a little bit,
Speaker 3: but you can go back to twenty twenty three. They're
Speaker 3: eight and fifteen at home against the spread, eight and fifteen,
Speaker 3: Like they've just struggled and been overvalued by the market consistently.
Speaker 3: So it's it's a not much a takeaway from them,
Speaker 3: the fact that they keep getting overvalued. Shanahan is a
Speaker 3: six point favorite. He usually wins those games. I think
Speaker 3: he's nine and four straight up in this exact spot.
Speaker 3: Is a big favorite. But against the spread since twenty
Speaker 3: twenty three, I think it's since Christmas or right before it,
Speaker 3: he's three and nine against the spread, including zero to
Speaker 3: three in the spot where they are coming home as
Speaker 3: a favorite after a win. So we keep talking about
Speaker 3: that stat since Christmas. Basically, they win, they lose, they win,
Speaker 3: they lose. It's one to fifteen now against the spread
Speaker 3: after a straight up win and a cover on the road.
Speaker 3: So I don't know, Chad, it feels like it's too easy.
Speaker 3: The public and the pros are with us on this one.
Speaker 3: All the money, all of it is pointing in right
Speaker 3: now at almost every book on this Panthers team. So
Speaker 3: I am happy to see the number moved. If it didn't, Budge,
Speaker 3: I would have told us we got to avoid it.
Speaker 3: But the fact that it's moved has given me some
Speaker 3: faith that we're on the right side. I just I
Speaker 3: think the books aren't value brace Shung and how well
Speaker 3: he's played, and they keep under undervaluing him this year.
Speaker 3: So we've been on the side with Bryce Freeze laid eggs.
Speaker 3: We've been burned by him a couple of times this year.
Speaker 3: But like you just said, defensively, this feels like.
Speaker 2: A great match with the Panthers.
Speaker 3: I don't know if they can stop the run, and
Speaker 3: they sure us all can't stop the past. So if
Speaker 3: bray Sean brings his a game chat, I think we
Speaker 3: got a really great number here with Panthers.
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree, it's going to be interesting. We
Speaker 1: got I think we got about eight or nine games
Speaker 1: that we're we're feeling pretty good about or at least
Speaker 1: like somewhat from from good to very very very good.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati good, Seattle very good, Detroit very good, Pittsburgh good,
Speaker 1: Arizona most excellent. Las Vegas mooe, mooe, caliente. Uh, Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know, rams Eh, Carolina good.
Speaker 1: So we got some work to do between now and
Speaker 1: Thursday to get a little more intel. We'll hear more
Speaker 1: about practices, injuries, things like that. This has been sharp
Speaker 1: or Square part of the Value and Podcast Network. We
Speaker 1: will be back on Thursday with the games we are
Speaker 1: zeroing in on, plus our head to head battle brass
Speaker 1: Balls so much more. Watcher listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.
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Speaker 2: I Love you right now, it's time to take a
Speaker 2: step forward.
Speaker 1: We gotta put something together, back to back. Let's go