WEBVTT - NFL Week 12 Bets: Bills-Texans, Giants-Lions, Bucs-Rams, Colts-Chiefs, Eagles-Cowboys, Jets-Ravens and more 0:00:00.880 --> 0:00:04.840 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rocked Bet. We 0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:08.039 are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the 0:00:08.080 --> 0:00:11.840 show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise 0:00:11.880 --> 0:00:14.520 guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined 0:00:14.520 --> 0:00:17.919 as always by my co host, my bff, my companion, 0:00:18.120 --> 0:00:27.160 my Campadre professional better Simon Hunter at all. So iomon, Chad. 0:00:27.200 --> 0:00:28.520 How are we doing? Brother brother? 0:00:28.560 --> 0:00:30.400 I got to be a little muted today because I'm 0:00:30.400 --> 0:00:32.080 sitting in a hotel room. I'll be in a hotel 0:00:32.159 --> 0:00:35.839 room for our next two shows. If you could see, 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:39.280 this is the beauty of podcasting in the modern age. 0:00:39.720 --> 0:00:45.519 My computer is balanced on the top of a turned 0:00:45.520 --> 0:00:51.040 over ice container, and there is a light that is 0:00:51.159 --> 0:00:54.000 half hanging on to the edge of my computer. So 0:00:54.040 --> 0:00:55.840 if we get through this whole show, and I'm on 0:00:55.920 --> 0:00:59.000 hotel WiFi, if we get through this whole show and 0:00:59.080 --> 0:01:01.720 nothing collapses, that will be the miracle. 0:01:03.280 --> 0:01:04.840 Now, I got good faith. We've had a good run 0:01:04.880 --> 0:01:06.440 with the hotel WiFi. 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:10.440 We're also having a good run lately. We went three 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:13.520 and two last week and our five favorite picks. We 0:01:13.560 --> 0:01:17.640 won with the Browns, we won with the Panthers, we 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:21.440 won with the Eagles on Sunday night. Great call by you. 0:01:22.080 --> 0:01:24.600 We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the 0:01:24.680 --> 0:01:27.480 Rams for the year. Take a look at the graphic. 0:01:27.600 --> 0:01:29.800 Everyone can see. This is where they get the official 0:01:29.959 --> 0:01:34.959 updates on our progress. Thirty one twenty four through eleven 0:01:35.240 --> 0:01:38.679 weeks of the season. Sometimes I wish I was only 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.040 betting these five games and I didn't bet anything else, 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:43.360 because I feel like it's the other games that are 0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:47.319 completely screwing me up. Simon, this is our Tuesday show. 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:50.960 We'll get through the entire slate. If you want to 0:01:50.960 --> 0:01:52.640 see what the final five are, you got to check 0:01:52.640 --> 0:01:57.840 out the show Sunday am on Sharper Square YouTube page. 0:01:57.920 --> 0:02:03.720 Don't forget subscribe to Apple Pods, Spotify wherever you get 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:08.480 your pods. All right, Thursday night football? Interesting game Buffalo 0:02:08.600 --> 0:02:12.000 at Houston. Houston is a six point underdog at hard 0:02:12.080 --> 0:02:16.000 Rock five and a halfs in a lot of other places. Look, 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:19.480 I mean who's playing QB, And I don't mean for 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:23.079 the Texans. I mean is it Josh Allen who can 0:02:23.120 --> 0:02:26.280 be inconsistent and looks like he's pressing and is missing receivers? 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:31.000 Or is it Josh Allen the superhuman who had six 0:02:31.200 --> 0:02:36.160 touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:39.720 game that I think everyone is still getting over the 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:45.919 hangover because it was so freaking wild. From the opening drive, 0:02:46.040 --> 0:02:48.160 the Bills were unstoppable. 0:02:48.480 --> 0:02:50.600 It's definitely a game where brow when you saw the numbers, 0:02:50.639 --> 0:02:52.280 especially there's five and a half's up there, it's like, 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:53.880 how do you not want to just take the Bills 0:02:53.919 --> 0:02:56.400 after the game they've just had and what you just said, 0:02:56.400 --> 0:02:58.440 what we've seen from Davis Mills and we expected from 0:02:58.480 --> 0:02:59.119 this Texas team. 0:02:59.200 --> 0:03:01.800 So I don't know. 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:03.640 I kind of want to take the Texans now they 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:07.160 were at six, but I don't think CJ is gonna play, 0:03:07.160 --> 0:03:11.280 and that's how he is, either concussions. It's like everyone's 0:03:11.480 --> 0:03:13.720 affected differently for them. So it's really tough to even 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.560 try to predict it, and it's a type of thing 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.440 where we don't know it's all in house. My biggest 0:03:19.440 --> 0:03:24.519 issue would definitely be Houston as a home team. I 0:03:24.520 --> 0:03:26.920 don't know, they just it's not like they have that 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:31.160 huge home field advantage, and even their primetime numbers of 0:03:31.240 --> 0:03:35.280 franchise just aren't good. It's pretty alarm and they're eighteen 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.520 and thirty one straight up, fifteen and thirty two against 0:03:38.560 --> 0:03:41.480 the spread in night games. So it's just it doesn't 0:03:41.480 --> 0:03:44.000 matter who the quarterback is. Historically it's not a good 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:46.520 spot for them. So it makes sense the early money 0:03:46.600 --> 0:03:49.120 is coming in from the professionals and the public all 0:03:49.160 --> 0:03:50.960 lined up on this Bills team with so much unknown 0:03:50.960 --> 0:03:54.600 of as Texans team. So I guess I'll go Bill's 0:03:54.600 --> 0:03:56.480 minus five and a half for now if you can 0:03:56.480 --> 0:03:58.680 find it. But like we said, it's already minus six 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:00.840 a hard rock, I could still I guess the Bills, but. 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:03.400 I know it's super. 0:04:03.080 --> 0:04:05.760 Publicly and it's going to be all public money. But 0:04:05.800 --> 0:04:09.080 we've seen these Thursday games. It's just doesn't really matter. 0:04:09.360 --> 0:04:11.280 If it's a bad matchup and it's a guy like 0:04:11.360 --> 0:04:13.480 Davis Mills playing, it's a shootout. I just don't think 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:15.680 he can keep up. So these these short week games 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:19.520 are just tough. And you know, we expect Josh Allena 0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:21.680 have a letdown game after putting up six touchdowns, but 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:22.640 maybe he's on a roll. 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:24.240 So I'm not going to try to get in front 0:04:24.240 --> 0:04:24.360 of it. 0:04:24.360 --> 0:04:26.800 I don't know about you, John No, No, Josh Allen 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:31.360 with the epic I guess back door fa the rare 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:35.559 back door favorite cover. Being down one with five minutes 0:04:35.640 --> 0:04:38.839 left and winning that game by twelve is what closed 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:43.479 it a six and a half point favorite. Davis Mills. Look, 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:47.760 it's a short week. CJ's still in the protocol. He 0:04:48.440 --> 0:04:50.760 we don't know what's going to be happening. He hasn't 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:55.880 been cleared yet. They got the Bills, Colts and Chiefs 0:04:56.160 --> 0:04:59.720 on the docket. The Texans are five hundred. You wonder, 0:05:00.000 --> 0:05:03.400 all right, do they sit him one more game, make 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:07.080 sure that he's healthy for the division game where that 0:05:07.240 --> 0:05:10.600 might be in the standings for the playoffs, potentially more 0:05:10.640 --> 0:05:15.440 important down the road. Davis Mills. I thought this was interesting. Again, 0:05:15.480 --> 0:05:19.000 I'm not advocating for betting the Texans in any way. 0:05:20.000 --> 0:05:26.799 Davis Mills had another last fourth quarter come from behind 0:05:27.120 --> 0:05:30.880 win on Sunday that was his second in a row. 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:34.320 The last time Davis Mills started a game before this 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:37.880 season was the last game of twenty twenty three, when 0:05:37.920 --> 0:05:40.320 he led a come from behind win for the Texans 0:05:40.800 --> 0:05:43.200 when they were in position to have the number one 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:47.279 overall pick. But that win knocked them out of the 0:05:47.320 --> 0:05:50.240 number one overall pick. The Texans might very well have 0:05:50.320 --> 0:05:53.160 Bryce Young right now instead of c. J. Stroud if 0:05:53.240 --> 0:05:57.000 Davis Mills does not win that game for Lovey Smith, 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:00.520 who immediately got fired forgetting his team to win at 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:04.960 the end of that twenty twenty three season. My point 0:06:04.960 --> 0:06:09.240 in saying all that is, who knows. Maybe Davis Mills 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.080 is just really good in the fourth quarter at the 0:06:12.080 --> 0:06:13.960 only time that matters, and the rest of the game 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:16.320 he's just tortured to watch. Possible. 0:06:17.600 --> 0:06:21.040 Yeah, that's impossible. Consistent to now it is. 0:06:22.160 --> 0:06:24.320 The Bills also gave up two hundred yards to the 0:06:24.320 --> 0:06:30.240 Tempate Buccaneers rushing on Sunday, so we know that their 0:06:30.240 --> 0:06:33.240 defense has not gotten better. It's going to be can 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:36.200 Josh Allen do something against this Texans defense? That's really 0:06:36.200 --> 0:06:41.480 going to be the game. Seattle minus thirteen versus Tennessee. 0:06:41.520 --> 0:06:44.280 They're visiting the Tennessee Titans. We talked about this one 0:06:44.279 --> 0:06:47.960 on Sunday night. You pegged it immediately. I know, I 0:06:48.000 --> 0:06:50.280 bet Seattle on Sunday at twelve and a half. I'm 0:06:50.320 --> 0:06:54.920 assuming you did as well. Totally a big number, but 0:06:55.240 --> 0:06:57.839 the defense is as good as let's say Houston's that 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:02.559 just played the type and held them to thirteen points. 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.400 And it took a miracle to get there, and its 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.240 offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:10.600 for that matter, both of which were in position to 0:07:10.600 --> 0:07:13.320 cover big numbers late in the game. So I feel 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:17.000 like the universe should right itself with this one. 0:07:17.840 --> 0:07:20.440 Yeah, And I said this is a spot I would 0:07:20.440 --> 0:07:23.000 never usually take. I just blindly would take home dog, 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.160 especially this big, and a lot of the numbers do 0:07:26.200 --> 0:07:29.040 back it up playing dogs this big at home. 0:07:29.760 --> 0:07:32.520 Just so people know why this is a rare spot 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:33.400 for me to Yawks. 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:37.600 So since twenty twenty, favorites of eleven of points are 0:07:37.680 --> 0:07:42.559 more three and seven against the spread, which is pretty bad. 0:07:42.880 --> 0:07:45.680 They're actually five and five straight up in those games. 0:07:46.360 --> 0:07:49.320 So it's a weird thing where these teams that are 0:07:49.320 --> 0:07:52.840 big favorites juggernauts lose these games. But I don't think 0:07:52.880 --> 0:07:54.920 it's here. I think we just saw a Tennessee's best 0:07:54.920 --> 0:07:56.560 shot that we go for in a divisional game. 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:57.120 I agree. 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:01.920 Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut. So I just said 0:08:01.920 --> 0:08:04.240 those trends just to give up. People couldn't believe when 0:08:04.280 --> 0:08:07.160 I was saying I like the Seahawks, and I said 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:09.520 I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot. But 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:12.200 this lay in the season with a number of this big, 0:08:12.880 --> 0:08:14.520 Like I said, the books were gonna be begging for 0:08:14.640 --> 0:08:16.720 Tennessee money and they opened it too short, and I 0:08:16.760 --> 0:08:18.640 think it's still too short, Like why is this not 0:08:18.680 --> 0:08:20.120 above fourteen years? 0:08:20.160 --> 0:08:22.560 So Tennessee, we've seen it this year. 0:08:22.560 --> 0:08:25.440 We've been burned by these fluky random points they get, 0:08:25.520 --> 0:08:29.000 like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward, 0:08:30.000 --> 0:08:31.960 they just they've been a covering machine. But here it 0:08:31.960 --> 0:08:34.320 feels like it's a great spot for Seattle, who they 0:08:34.360 --> 0:08:36.400 are eight and two against the spread this season. Seattle 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:40.120 so like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers, 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.600 and it's really if you go and look, it's them 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:43.760 being up on bad teams. 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:45.560 They do really well against bad teams. 0:08:45.600 --> 0:08:48.520 So I think it's just their defense is so so 0:08:48.640 --> 0:08:51.040 well coached they really don't give an inch. And then offensively, 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:53.160 we just saw Seam Donald have his worst game of 0:08:53.160 --> 0:08:54.920 the year. It just feels like the exact spot he 0:08:54.960 --> 0:08:57.520 needs to get right. So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I 0:08:57.559 --> 0:08:59.559 don't really think she all having much of a run 0:08:59.600 --> 0:09:03.000 game ops, but passing wise, they should torch the secondary. 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.000 So yeah, I still like this number as long as 0:09:05.040 --> 0:09:06.079 you're getting under fourteen. 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:09.360 Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways. That's 0:09:09.400 --> 0:09:12.600 been sort of the issue for Seattle. So I think 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:15.960 this is a really good opportunity for Donald to get right. 0:09:16.320 --> 0:09:17.960 And I think we did get a little bit of 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:21.080 a lower number on Sunday and even today because of 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.760 the stink of what Donald did and people thinking, oh, Donald, 0:09:25.160 --> 0:09:27.880 he's back, you see him ghosts again. I don't think 0:09:27.920 --> 0:09:29.920 that's the case. We've seen him have bad games. He 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.320 had a bad game in the playoffs last year against 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:35.439 the Rams and then came back and has been an 0:09:35.520 --> 0:09:38.120 MVP candidate for most of the year. So this is 0:09:38.160 --> 0:09:41.640 when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate, is against 0:09:41.640 --> 0:09:43.800 a very bad Tennessee Titans team. 0:09:44.080 --> 0:09:45.440 I broke my rule last week. 0:09:45.480 --> 0:09:49.400 I just said I will blindly bet Seattle as a 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.560 road team. They've just been so good to me, and 0:09:53.640 --> 0:09:56.079 you know, under their head coach, they're nine and three 0:09:56.080 --> 0:09:59.160 against the spreading the season they're five and one, so 0:09:59.200 --> 0:10:01.120 they're just covering machines of the road. They just get 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:04.400 up on a McDonald. So, uh, you gotta bet it. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:04.720 I don't know. 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:06.760 It's just I just I'm trying not to number scare 0:10:06.800 --> 0:10:09.360 me off. It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's 0:10:09.360 --> 0:10:10.960 worthy of it. They're just a really talented team. 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:13.319 You know what's weird. We talked about it on Sunday. 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:18.840 I didn't hesitate, didn't feel like it felt like a 0:10:18.880 --> 0:10:22.480 big number that Seattle should win this game. Thirty four 0:10:22.520 --> 0:10:27.520 to three. Lock it in clip that for Monday. 0:10:28.480 --> 0:10:29.280 That'd be nice. 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:33.880 Pittsburgh at Chicago. Chicago was a three point favorite. This 0:10:34.040 --> 0:10:36.520 opened a two and a half after the Mason Rudolph 0:10:36.640 --> 0:10:40.080 Aaron Rodgers. After Aaron Rodgers was injured in the game 0:10:40.120 --> 0:10:43.080 and it became clear, or at least people thought Mason 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:47.559 Rudolph would be starting this next week. Aaron Rodgers has 0:10:47.559 --> 0:10:51.320 a fractured left wrist. Surgery not required. It's still not 0:10:51.480 --> 0:10:56.160 determined if he will be playing this Sunday. But this 0:10:56.240 --> 0:11:03.800 is a Mason Rudolph line today Simon, According to Owen 0:11:03.840 --> 0:11:09.800 Millman via Larry Mayer on Twitter, this was texted to 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:14.199 me right before we started recording by Owen. Today is 0:11:14.240 --> 0:11:19.040 Caleb Williams twenty fourth birthday. He was born November eighteenth, 0:11:19.120 --> 0:11:22.640 two thousand and one Cordner, Larry Mayer, and Owen Millman. 0:11:22.920 --> 0:11:26.160 He is the only player currently on the Bears roster 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:29.280 who was born on a day that the Bears played 0:11:29.280 --> 0:11:32.200 a game. They beat the Temp Bay Buccaneers twenty seven 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:38.360 twenty four behind three touchdowns from Jim Miller, not so 0:11:38.480 --> 0:11:41.680 Bears legend who turned into a Bears broadcasting legend. He 0:11:41.760 --> 0:11:44.240 threw three touchdowns to Marty Booker Bears one twenty seven 0:11:44.240 --> 0:11:46.400 to twenty four and the Bay He needs to be 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:50.280 first place Chicago Jim Miller to Marty Poker Dale by 0:11:50.360 --> 0:11:56.480 John Lynch with Poker Holdsohn touchdown Poker Canal. Happy birthday 0:11:56.880 --> 0:12:01.559 to our favorite quarterback, Caleb william Will you be betting 0:12:02.200 --> 0:12:05.440 again on Caleb Williams this weekend? 0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:08.360 Simon, I hate this game so much because I feel 0:12:08.400 --> 0:12:09.760 like I have to go against the Bears. 0:12:09.800 --> 0:12:10.520 I feel like I'm blind. 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:14.000 You too, Yeah, it's too much. 0:12:15.400 --> 0:12:18.880 Much. It's not a Tomlins spot like we make it 0:12:18.960 --> 0:12:19.400 out to be. 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:22.440 Evan had some really great stats in this game, and 0:12:22.480 --> 0:12:24.800 the biggest one I took away from this one was 0:12:25.640 --> 0:12:27.439 just as a road underdog, what. 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:28.600 Tomlin's been doing lately. 0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:32.120 He's actually lost four straight straight up and against the spread, 0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.320 and that's the first time it's happened for Pittsburgh since 0:12:35.320 --> 0:12:39.679 twenty eleven, so it's kind of interesting they've he's actually struggled. 0:12:39.240 --> 0:12:42.280 In this spot on the road as a dog as 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:42.680 of late. 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:45.960 But it's like, all right, what kind of Bear stats 0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:47.760 I have to go against here, because I just can't. 0:12:48.000 --> 0:12:50.040 We've talked about the Bears have had a horseshoe up 0:12:50.080 --> 0:12:52.880 their ass now for five six weeks, Like it's just 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.439 been incredible the games they pulled out in one where 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.760 they just they're not playing their best, but they're just 0:12:57.800 --> 0:12:59.199 so well coached and they just find a way. 0:12:59.200 --> 0:13:00.959 They just keep believing in themselves. 0:13:00.960 --> 0:13:04.000 And there's is a unique spot Bears who won three 0:13:04.040 --> 0:13:06.800 straight games by five points or less in the last 0:13:06.800 --> 0:13:10.200 twenty years teams in this exact spot. They went twelve 0:13:10.520 --> 0:13:12.680 and twenty three against the spread in that six game, 0:13:13.080 --> 0:13:16.719 so historically it usually catches up to them. More so 0:13:16.880 --> 0:13:19.640 the fact that they're a favorite now is it because 0:13:19.640 --> 0:13:22.520 of Mason Rudolph, Like we've bet we've bet Pittsburgh with 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:25.440 Mason Rudolph Duck College's We've we've bet this before in 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:29.240 the spot chat. So like the fact of the public 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:29.960 hates Pittsburgh. 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:31.400 The public's over the Bears as well. 0:13:31.520 --> 0:13:33.520 Finally, what it feels like every week the public's kind 0:13:33.520 --> 0:13:36.199 of gone against the Bears year. It feels like it's 0:13:36.200 --> 0:13:38.120 the right spot to take Steelers. But it's it's pain 0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:40.600 in me. I just I don't want to go. But 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:42.520 there's something magic about this Bears team. They're just so 0:13:42.640 --> 0:13:44.079 well coached, and I think they've got to run the 0:13:44.120 --> 0:13:47.680 ball against the Steelers team. But we've seen it, Tom 0:13:47.679 --> 0:13:50.240 fies away and I just think this is just playing 0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:50.640 the number. 0:13:50.760 --> 0:13:52.760 It's it's too it's too big A plus three. 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:55.719 Yeah, I agree, as much as it pains me to 0:13:56.240 --> 0:13:59.560 bet against the Bears in this spot. All of it 0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:04.320 just yuels that we've seen this before, right. We've seen 0:14:04.360 --> 0:14:07.920 this with the Vikings a couple of years ago. We 0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:11.000 saw this with the Giants and Brian Dayball's first year. 0:14:11.320 --> 0:14:13.560 We saw it with the Chiefs last year. There are 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:17.040 teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine, 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:21.960 ten games where they win by one score, and you 0:14:22.120 --> 0:14:26.720 keep expecting it every week, like how do you how 0:14:26.760 --> 0:14:29.760 do you figure out when the aggression? Regression is going 0:14:29.800 --> 0:14:32.840 to come? That's what makes it so difficult because at 0:14:32.840 --> 0:14:35.480 some point you either got to get off the train 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:39.200 and try to time that perfectly. It's like timing the market. 0:14:39.400 --> 0:14:41.920 How do you time the freaking market? You know, who's 0:14:42.280 --> 0:14:44.200 everybody selling your team? 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:46.520 Like they're graded as one of the worst teams in 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:49.080 NFL history in the last like twenty five years to 0:14:49.160 --> 0:14:51.600 be seven and three, just like all the underlying numbers 0:14:51.600 --> 0:14:53.880 and data. Totally, that's why I love football. It's like, 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:56.280 it don't matter. You gotta just line up and play 0:14:56.320 --> 0:14:58.920 the game. They keep finding a way. So I get 0:14:58.920 --> 0:15:00.720 what people are saying, but end of the day, it 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:01.680 doesn't matter. 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.560 Meaning it doesn't matter. We're taking the Steelers. 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:07.640 Still taking the Steelers. 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:09.200 I'm just saying. It's a Bears fan, I wouldn't care. 0:15:09.240 --> 0:15:11.160 It's like, we know our team's not that good, but 0:15:11.200 --> 0:15:12.040 we're seven and three. 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:12.920 Who cares? 0:15:13.040 --> 0:15:15.360 Yeah? Oh totally, but I did. I will tell you this. 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:17.920 I will tell you this as a Bears fan. You know, 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:21.120 I watch all the videos Ben Johnson in the locker room. 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:25.280 He's amazing. You know, good, better, best, never let it rest, 0:15:25.400 --> 0:15:29.680 all those kinds of things. I also thought to myself, 0:15:29.880 --> 0:15:33.960 oh my god, there's still seven games left. In the year. 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:37.920 I can't the way the Bears have played and the 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:41.120 way they won they've won these games, I could easily 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:43.000 see them losing their next seven games. 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.120 Yeah, the magic numbers three to me. If you can 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:48.640 get three wins with you guys have a brutal schedule 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:50.960 in the season, you can get the really mean, you 0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:53.160 can get the ten wins. That's why I like, it's 0:15:53.160 --> 0:15:54.680 tough for me here where I know you how desperate 0:15:54.720 --> 0:15:56.360 there they need to win this one. But that doesn't 0:15:56.400 --> 0:15:59.040 matter in football, Like, it doesn't matter if you need 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.120 to win this game. It's it's really about the number. 0:16:01.120 --> 0:16:03.520 And yeah, I just think plus three and the Steelers is. 0:16:03.560 --> 0:16:06.800 Right, all right, Simon talking about numbers New York Giants 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:11.600 visiting the Detroit Lions. This number has moved from eleven 0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.360 and a half to ten and a half since the 0:16:14.480 --> 0:16:21.120 Lions got just beat up, hammered, bamboozled by the Philadelphia 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:28.720 Eagles on Sunday night and look the Giants. We talked 0:16:28.720 --> 0:16:32.520 about it last week with Jamis. We had to bet 0:16:32.520 --> 0:16:35.120 on Jamis just for a little taste because of the 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:37.800 roller coaster that is the full Jamis experience, and we 0:16:38.040 --> 0:16:41.720 got it with Jamis last week where he had that 0:16:41.760 --> 0:16:44.560 team in contention to win the game, leading for much 0:16:44.560 --> 0:16:47.400 of it. Then they're down seven points with forty four 0:16:47.440 --> 0:16:50.120 seconds left around the Packers eighteen yard line. Jamis goes 0:16:50.120 --> 0:16:51.760 back to pass, throws it to the end zone. Jalen 0:16:51.840 --> 0:16:55.240 Hyatt picked off in the corner of the end zone. 0:16:55.800 --> 0:17:00.280 You can't blame Jamis for this one A covered because 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.200 the number was seven and a half, so God bless, 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:06.800 but also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route. 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:11.600 And this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy. It was 0:17:11.760 --> 0:17:15.320 Jalen Hyatt not doing his job. I don't know that 0:17:15.440 --> 0:17:23.160 the Giants have the same deadcat bounce against a desperate 0:17:23.280 --> 0:17:24.920 desperate and that's what they are right now. 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:28.320 Detroit Lionstein, it's shockingly going to be my Simon says, 0:17:28.359 --> 0:17:32.520 to give me, Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bett 0:17:33.000 --> 0:17:34.159 minus ten and a half. 0:17:34.240 --> 0:17:35.359 I want to play a game. 0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:40.200 Simon says, Wow, it's it's a big favorite. 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:42.800 But it's really about this lines and how we always 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:44.680 just play this spot and it's just good to us. 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:46.600 We always talk about giving out long term winners, and 0:17:46.640 --> 0:17:49.520 this is the definition of one. Tons of stats here 0:17:50.000 --> 0:17:52.119 why it's so good to back the Lions here And 0:17:52.119 --> 0:17:53.840 it's a unique spot, right, You're coming off a week 0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:57.120 where data converted a single fourth down where immediately issue 0:17:57.119 --> 0:17:57.919 as that happened. 0:17:57.640 --> 0:17:59.600 It's good. I was like, all right, I gotta find 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:00.000 some staff. 0:18:02.119 --> 0:18:03.960 Hello, de try. 0:18:05.880 --> 0:18:10.400 You what is this Lion's team like after they don't 0:18:10.400 --> 0:18:14.160 get a single fourth down the week before? Shockingly, they're 0:18:14.240 --> 0:18:17.560 nine and one straight up, which you know, okay, they 0:18:17.560 --> 0:18:19.720 do bounce back after the struggle of the week, but 0:18:19.760 --> 0:18:22.840 they're eight and two against the spread in games after 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:27.000 they fail to cover a fourth down, so pretty imparent 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:30.040 they've bounce back in this game, and those games they've covered, 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.000 they've covered by an average of ten points per game 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:35.400 in that spot. So that's just bringing in what it's 0:18:35.440 --> 0:18:37.800 like after they struggle on fourth down. Now, let's get 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.880 to all the golf stats. We know golf in these games, 0:18:41.280 --> 0:18:43.280 he's always big a bouncing back because lines have just 0:18:43.320 --> 0:18:45.240 been so good, and we've talked the last three years 0:18:45.560 --> 0:18:47.520 they've been seventy percent against the spread, So you're gonna 0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:50.040 have some really good stats with golf and Campbell as 0:18:50.040 --> 0:18:53.080 a combo, and all of a straight up loss, they're 0:18:53.119 --> 0:18:57.199 twenty two and eight against the spread, So they just 0:18:57.240 --> 0:18:58.320 tend to bounce back and the. 0:18:58.320 --> 0:19:00.560 Books don't account for it, so we always play that spot. 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:05.200 And they're actually shockingly covered thirteen in a row in 0:19:05.240 --> 0:19:08.640 this spot, so they haven't not covered after a loss 0:19:09.080 --> 0:19:11.200 since November one of twenty twenty two. 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:13.200 Shout out to my guy Evan Abrams. 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.879 That's an amazing stat where it's like they're just a 0:19:15.920 --> 0:19:19.160 machine after these type of losses and you go, okay, well, 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:20.359 this is a big spread. 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:23.320 What is their record when the spread's above four? 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.679 Golf and Campbell, they're perfect eight to zero against the 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:29.399 spread when the spread is higher than four after a 0:19:29.440 --> 0:19:33.399 straight up loss, So feels like a really good bounce 0:19:33.480 --> 0:19:36.280 back spot. We talk of the time Golf indoors after 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:38.639 a loss twenty four and seven against the spread, So 0:19:38.680 --> 0:19:41.439 it's like, again, it's just all points to it, and 0:19:41.480 --> 0:19:44.480 you just look at the on field matchup wise, the 0:19:45.280 --> 0:19:48.720 getting upfield can be neutered by the Giants with a 0:19:48.720 --> 0:19:51.560 good run game, and we know what Detroit want to do. 0:19:51.640 --> 0:19:52.639 They want to run the ball. 0:19:53.000 --> 0:19:54.560 They just kind of get it done against an Eagles 0:19:54.560 --> 0:19:56.720 team that just has a really different front. They arguet 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.520 great against the run because they have great linebackers, which 0:19:59.560 --> 0:20:02.560 the Giants do not. That's the Giant's biggest weakness. So 0:20:03.040 --> 0:20:04.840 love the match of the Lions, love all the trends 0:20:04.840 --> 0:20:07.080 for this Lions team. And yeah, I can't believe in 0:20:07.200 --> 0:20:09.520 making an over ten point favorite my favorite bet, but 0:20:10.080 --> 0:20:11.520 I've just been been heavy into it, so I figure 0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:12.200 out to give it out. 0:20:12.480 --> 0:20:15.040 Can I support you because I want to support you, 0:20:15.160 --> 0:20:18.680