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Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rocked Bet. We

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Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast Network. This is the

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Speaker 1: show that makes the squares sharper and makes the wise

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Speaker 1: guys pay attention. I am Chad Millman. I am joined

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Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: my Campadre professional better Simon Hunter at all. So iomon, Chad.

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Speaker 2: How are we doing? Brother brother?

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Speaker 1: I got to be a little muted today because I'm

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Speaker 1: sitting in a hotel room. I'll be in a hotel

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Speaker 1: room for our next two shows. If you could see,

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Speaker 1: this is the beauty of podcasting in the modern age.

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Speaker 1: My computer is balanced on the top of a turned

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Speaker 1: over ice container, and there is a light that is

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Speaker 1: half hanging on to the edge of my computer. So

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Speaker 1: if we get through this whole show, and I'm on

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Speaker 1: hotel WiFi, if we get through this whole show and

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Speaker 1: nothing collapses, that will be the miracle.

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Speaker 2: Now, I got good faith. We've had a good run

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Speaker 2: with the hotel WiFi.

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Speaker 1: We're also having a good run lately. We went three

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Speaker 1: and two last week and our five favorite picks. We

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Speaker 1: won with the Browns, we won with the Panthers, we

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Speaker 1: won with the Eagles on Sunday night. Great call by you.

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Speaker 1: We lost with the Bengals and we lost with the

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Speaker 1: Rams for the year. Take a look at the graphic.

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Speaker 1: Everyone can see. This is where they get the official

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Speaker 1: updates on our progress. Thirty one twenty four through eleven

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Speaker 1: weeks of the season. Sometimes I wish I was only

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Speaker 1: betting these five games and I didn't bet anything else,

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Speaker 1: because I feel like it's the other games that are

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Speaker 1: completely screwing me up. Simon, this is our Tuesday show.

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Speaker 1: We'll get through the entire slate. If you want to

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Speaker 1: see what the final five are, you got to check

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Speaker 1: out the show Sunday am on Sharper Square YouTube page.

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Speaker 1: Don't forget subscribe to Apple Pods, Spotify wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your pods. All right, Thursday night football? Interesting game Buffalo

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Speaker 1: at Houston. Houston is a six point underdog at hard

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Speaker 1: Rock five and a halfs in a lot of other places. Look,

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Speaker 1: I mean who's playing QB, And I don't mean for

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Speaker 1: the Texans. I mean is it Josh Allen who can

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Speaker 1: be inconsistent and looks like he's pressing and is missing receivers?

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Speaker 1: Or is it Josh Allen the superhuman who had six

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Speaker 1: touchdowns against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Sunday in a

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Speaker 1: game that I think everyone is still getting over the

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Speaker 1: hangover because it was so freaking wild. From the opening drive,

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Speaker 1: the Bills were unstoppable.

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Speaker 3: It's definitely a game where brow when you saw the numbers,

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Speaker 3: especially there's five and a half's up there, it's like,

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Speaker 3: how do you not want to just take the Bills

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Speaker 3: after the game they've just had and what you just said,

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Speaker 3: what we've seen from Davis Mills and we expected from

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Speaker 3: this Texas team.

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Speaker 2: So I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I kind of want to take the Texans now they

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Speaker 3: were at six, but I don't think CJ is gonna play,

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Speaker 3: and that's how he is, either concussions. It's like everyone's

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Speaker 3: affected differently for them. So it's really tough to even

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Speaker 3: try to predict it, and it's a type of thing

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Speaker 3: where we don't know it's all in house. My biggest

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Speaker 3: issue would definitely be Houston as a home team. I

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Speaker 3: don't know, they just it's not like they have that

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Speaker 3: huge home field advantage, and even their primetime numbers of

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Speaker 3: franchise just aren't good. It's pretty alarm and they're eighteen

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Speaker 3: and thirty one straight up, fifteen and thirty two against

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Speaker 3: the spread in night games. So it's just it doesn't

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Speaker 3: matter who the quarterback is. Historically it's not a good

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Speaker 3: spot for them. So it makes sense the early money

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Speaker 3: is coming in from the professionals and the public all

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Speaker 3: lined up on this Bills team with so much unknown

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Speaker 3: of as Texans team. So I guess I'll go Bill's

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Speaker 3: minus five and a half for now if you can

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Speaker 3: find it. But like we said, it's already minus six

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Speaker 3: a hard rock, I could still I guess the Bills, but.

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Speaker 2: I know it's super.

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Speaker 3: Publicly and it's going to be all public money. But

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Speaker 3: we've seen these Thursday games. It's just doesn't really matter.

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Speaker 3: If it's a bad matchup and it's a guy like

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Speaker 3: Davis Mills playing, it's a shootout. I just don't think

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Speaker 3: he can keep up. So these these short week games

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Speaker 3: are just tough. And you know, we expect Josh Allena

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Speaker 3: have a letdown game after putting up six touchdowns, but

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Speaker 3: maybe he's on a roll.

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Speaker 2: So I'm not going to try to get in front

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Speaker 2: of it.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about you, John No, No, Josh Allen

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Speaker 1: with the epic I guess back door fa the rare

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Speaker 1: back door favorite cover. Being down one with five minutes

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Speaker 1: left and winning that game by twelve is what closed

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Speaker 1: it a six and a half point favorite. Davis Mills. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's a short week. CJ's still in the protocol. He

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Speaker 1: we don't know what's going to be happening. He hasn't

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Speaker 1: been cleared yet. They got the Bills, Colts and Chiefs

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Speaker 1: on the docket. The Texans are five hundred. You wonder,

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Speaker 1: all right, do they sit him one more game, make

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Speaker 1: sure that he's healthy for the division game where that

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Speaker 1: might be in the standings for the playoffs, potentially more

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Speaker 1: important down the road. Davis Mills. I thought this was interesting. Again,

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Speaker 1: I'm not advocating for betting the Texans in any way.

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Speaker 1: Davis Mills had another last fourth quarter come from behind

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Speaker 1: win on Sunday that was his second in a row.

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Speaker 1: The last time Davis Mills started a game before this

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Speaker 1: season was the last game of twenty twenty three, when

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Speaker 1: he led a come from behind win for the Texans

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Speaker 1: when they were in position to have the number one

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Speaker 1: overall pick. But that win knocked them out of the

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Speaker 1: number one overall pick. The Texans might very well have

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Speaker 1: Bryce Young right now instead of c. J. Stroud if

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Speaker 1: Davis Mills does not win that game for Lovey Smith,

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Speaker 1: who immediately got fired forgetting his team to win at

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Speaker 1: the end of that twenty twenty three season. My point

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Speaker 1: in saying all that is, who knows. Maybe Davis Mills

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Speaker 1: is just really good in the fourth quarter at the

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Speaker 1: only time that matters, and the rest of the game

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Speaker 1: he's just tortured to watch. Possible.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's impossible. Consistent to now it is.

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Speaker 1: The Bills also gave up two hundred yards to the

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Speaker 1: Tempate Buccaneers rushing on Sunday, so we know that their

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Speaker 1: defense has not gotten better. It's going to be can

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen do something against this Texans defense? That's really

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Speaker 1: going to be the game. Seattle minus thirteen versus Tennessee.

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Speaker 1: They're visiting the Tennessee Titans. We talked about this one

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Speaker 1: on Sunday night. You pegged it immediately. I know, I

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Speaker 1: bet Seattle on Sunday at twelve and a half. I'm

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Speaker 1: assuming you did as well. Totally a big number, but

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Speaker 1: the defense is as good as let's say Houston's that

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Speaker 1: just played the type and held them to thirteen points.

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Speaker 1: And it took a miracle to get there, and its

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Speaker 1: offense is so much better than Houston's or the Chargers

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Speaker 1: for that matter, both of which were in position to

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Speaker 1: cover big numbers late in the game. So I feel

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Speaker 1: like the universe should right itself with this one.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, And I said this is a spot I would

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Speaker 3: never usually take. I just blindly would take home dog,

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Speaker 3: especially this big, and a lot of the numbers do

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Speaker 3: back it up playing dogs this big at home.

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Speaker 2: Just so people know why this is a rare spot

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Speaker 2: for me to Yawks.

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Speaker 3: So since twenty twenty, favorites of eleven of points are

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Speaker 3: more three and seven against the spread, which is pretty bad.

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Speaker 3: They're actually five and five straight up in those games.

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Speaker 3: So it's a weird thing where these teams that are

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Speaker 3: big favorites juggernauts lose these games. But I don't think

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Speaker 3: it's here. I think we just saw a Tennessee's best

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Speaker 3: shot that we go for in a divisional game.

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Speaker 2: I agree.

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Speaker 3: Now they're facing an absolute juggernaut. So I just said

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Speaker 3: those trends just to give up. People couldn't believe when

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Speaker 3: I was saying I like the Seahawks, and I said

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Speaker 3: I usually blindly would bet Tennessee in the spot. But

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Speaker 3: this lay in the season with a number of this big,

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Speaker 3: Like I said, the books were gonna be begging for

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Speaker 3: Tennessee money and they opened it too short, and I

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Speaker 3: think it's still too short, Like why is this not

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Speaker 3: above fourteen years?

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Speaker 2: So Tennessee, we've seen it this year.

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Speaker 3: We've been burned by these fluky random points they get,

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Speaker 3: like Chad said, those late touchdowns or field goals by Ward,

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Speaker 3: they just they've been a covering machine. But here it

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Speaker 3: feels like it's a great spot for Seattle, who they

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Speaker 3: are eight and two against the spread this season. Seattle

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Speaker 3: so like they've been covering pretty well with these big numbers,

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Speaker 3: and it's really if you go and look, it's them

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Speaker 3: being up on bad teams.

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Speaker 2: They do really well against bad teams.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's just their defense is so so

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Speaker 3: well coached they really don't give an inch. And then offensively,

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Speaker 3: we just saw Seam Donald have his worst game of

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Speaker 3: the year. It just feels like the exact spot he

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Speaker 3: needs to get right. So with Jeffrey Simmons back, I

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Speaker 3: don't really think she all having much of a run

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Speaker 3: game ops, but passing wise, they should torch the secondary.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I still like this number as long as

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Speaker 3: you're getting under fourteen.

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Speaker 1: Look, the run game hasn't been that great anyways. That's

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Speaker 1: been sort of the issue for Seattle. So I think

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Speaker 1: this is a really good opportunity for Donald to get right.

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Speaker 1: And I think we did get a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a lower number on Sunday and even today because of

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Speaker 1: the stink of what Donald did and people thinking, oh, Donald,

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Speaker 1: he's back, you see him ghosts again. I don't think

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Speaker 1: that's the case. We've seen him have bad games. He

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Speaker 1: had a bad game in the playoffs last year against

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Speaker 1: the Rams and then came back and has been an

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Speaker 1: MVP candidate for most of the year. So this is

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Speaker 1: when you reassert yourself as an MVP candidate, is against

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Speaker 1: a very bad Tennessee Titans team.

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Speaker 2: I broke my rule last week.

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Speaker 3: I just said I will blindly bet Seattle as a

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Speaker 3: road team. They've just been so good to me, and

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Speaker 3: you know, under their head coach, they're nine and three

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Speaker 3: against the spreading the season they're five and one, so

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Speaker 3: they're just covering machines of the road. They just get

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Speaker 3: up on a McDonald. So, uh, you gotta bet it.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: It's just I just I'm trying not to number scare

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Speaker 3: me off. It's an insane number, but I think Seattle's

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Speaker 3: worthy of it. They're just a really talented team.

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Speaker 1: You know what's weird. We talked about it on Sunday.

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Speaker 1: I didn't hesitate, didn't feel like it felt like a

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Speaker 1: big number that Seattle should win this game. Thirty four

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Speaker 1: to three. Lock it in clip that for Monday.

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Speaker 2: That'd be nice.

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Speaker 1: Pittsburgh at Chicago. Chicago was a three point favorite. This

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Speaker 1: opened a two and a half after the Mason Rudolph

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers. After Aaron Rodgers was injured in the game

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Speaker 1: and it became clear, or at least people thought Mason

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Speaker 1: Rudolph would be starting this next week. Aaron Rodgers has

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Speaker 1: a fractured left wrist. Surgery not required. It's still not

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Speaker 1: determined if he will be playing this Sunday. But this

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Speaker 1: is a Mason Rudolph line today Simon, According to Owen

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Speaker 1: Millman via Larry Mayer on Twitter, this was texted to

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Speaker 1: me right before we started recording by Owen. Today is

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Speaker 1: Caleb Williams twenty fourth birthday. He was born November eighteenth,

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Speaker 1: two thousand and one Cordner, Larry Mayer, and Owen Millman.

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Speaker 1: He is the only player currently on the Bears roster

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Speaker 1: who was born on a day that the Bears played

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Speaker 1: a game. They beat the Temp Bay Buccaneers twenty seven

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Speaker 1: twenty four behind three touchdowns from Jim Miller, not so

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Speaker 1: Bears legend who turned into a Bears broadcasting legend. He

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Speaker 1: threw three touchdowns to Marty Booker Bears one twenty seven

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Speaker 1: to twenty four and the Bay He needs to be

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Speaker 1: first place Chicago Jim Miller to Marty Poker Dale by

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Speaker 1: John Lynch with Poker Holdsohn touchdown Poker Canal. Happy birthday

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Speaker 1: to our favorite quarterback, Caleb william Will you be betting

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Speaker 1: again on Caleb Williams this weekend?

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Speaker 3: Simon, I hate this game so much because I feel

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Speaker 3: like I have to go against the Bears.

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Speaker 2: I feel like I'm blind.

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Speaker 1: You too, Yeah, it's too much.

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Speaker 2: Much. It's not a Tomlins spot like we make it

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Speaker 2: out to be.

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Speaker 3: Evan had some really great stats in this game, and

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Speaker 3: the biggest one I took away from this one was

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Speaker 3: just as a road underdog, what.

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Speaker 2: Tomlin's been doing lately.

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Speaker 3: He's actually lost four straight straight up and against the spread,

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Speaker 3: and that's the first time it's happened for Pittsburgh since

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Speaker 3: twenty eleven, so it's kind of interesting they've he's actually struggled.

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Speaker 2: In this spot on the road as a dog as

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Speaker 2: of late.

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Speaker 3: But it's like, all right, what kind of Bear stats

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Speaker 3: I have to go against here, because I just can't.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about the Bears have had a horseshoe up

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Speaker 3: their ass now for five six weeks, Like it's just

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Speaker 3: been incredible the games they pulled out in one where

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Speaker 3: they just they're not playing their best, but they're just

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Speaker 3: so well coached and they just find a way.

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Speaker 2: They just keep believing in themselves.

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Speaker 3: And there's is a unique spot Bears who won three

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Speaker 3: straight games by five points or less in the last

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Speaker 3: twenty years teams in this exact spot. They went twelve

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Speaker 3: and twenty three against the spread in that six game,

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Speaker 3: so historically it usually catches up to them. More so

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Speaker 3: the fact that they're a favorite now is it because

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Speaker 3: of Mason Rudolph, Like we've bet we've bet Pittsburgh with

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Speaker 3: Mason Rudolph Duck College's We've we've bet this before in

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Speaker 3: the spot chat. So like the fact of the public

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Speaker 3: hates Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: The public's over the Bears as well.

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Speaker 3: Finally, what it feels like every week the public's kind

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Speaker 3: of gone against the Bears year. It feels like it's

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Speaker 3: the right spot to take Steelers. But it's it's pain

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Speaker 3: in me. I just I don't want to go. But

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Speaker 3: there's something magic about this Bears team. They're just so

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Speaker 3: well coached, and I think they've got to run the

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Speaker 3: ball against the Steelers team. But we've seen it, Tom

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Speaker 3: fies away and I just think this is just playing

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Speaker 3: the number.

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Speaker 2: It's it's too it's too big A plus three.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, as much as it pains me to

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Speaker 1: bet against the Bears in this spot. All of it

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Speaker 1: just yuels that we've seen this before, right. We've seen

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Speaker 1: this with the Vikings a couple of years ago. We

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Speaker 1: saw this with the Giants and Brian Dayball's first year.

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Speaker 1: We saw it with the Chiefs last year. There are

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Speaker 1: teams that get on a roll and they go eight, nine,

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Speaker 1: ten games where they win by one score, and you

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Speaker 1: keep expecting it every week, like how do you how

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Speaker 1: do you figure out when the aggression? Regression is going

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Speaker 1: to come? That's what makes it so difficult because at

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Speaker 1: some point you either got to get off the train

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Speaker 1: and try to time that perfectly. It's like timing the market.

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Speaker 1: How do you time the freaking market? You know, who's

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Speaker 1: everybody selling your team?

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Speaker 3: Like they're graded as one of the worst teams in

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Speaker 3: NFL history in the last like twenty five years to

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Speaker 3: be seven and three, just like all the underlying numbers

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Speaker 3: and data. Totally, that's why I love football. It's like,

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Speaker 3: it don't matter. You gotta just line up and play

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Speaker 3: the game. They keep finding a way. So I get

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Speaker 3: what people are saying, but end of the day, it

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Speaker 3: doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: Meaning it doesn't matter. We're taking the Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Still taking the Steelers.

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Speaker 3: I'm just saying. It's a Bears fan, I wouldn't care.

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Speaker 3: It's like, we know our team's not that good, but

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Speaker 3: we're seven and three.

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Speaker 2: Who cares?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? Oh totally, but I did. I will tell you this.

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Speaker 1: I will tell you this as a Bears fan. You know,

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Speaker 1: I watch all the videos Ben Johnson in the locker room.

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Speaker 1: He's amazing. You know, good, better, best, never let it rest,

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Speaker 1: all those kinds of things. I also thought to myself,

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Speaker 1: oh my god, there's still seven games left. In the year.

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Speaker 1: I can't the way the Bears have played and the

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Speaker 1: way they won they've won these games, I could easily

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Speaker 1: see them losing their next seven games.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the magic numbers three to me. If you can

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Speaker 3: get three wins with you guys have a brutal schedule

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Speaker 3: in the season, you can get the really mean, you

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Speaker 3: can get the ten wins. That's why I like, it's

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Speaker 3: tough for me here where I know you how desperate

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Speaker 3: there they need to win this one. But that doesn't

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Speaker 3: matter in football, Like, it doesn't matter if you need

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Speaker 3: to win this game. It's it's really about the number.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, I just think plus three and the Steelers is.

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Speaker 1: Right, all right, Simon talking about numbers New York Giants

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Speaker 1: visiting the Detroit Lions. This number has moved from eleven

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Speaker 1: and a half to ten and a half since the

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Speaker 1: Lions got just beat up, hammered, bamboozled by the Philadelphia

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Speaker 1: Eagles on Sunday night and look the Giants. We talked

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Speaker 1: about it last week with Jamis. We had to bet

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Speaker 1: on Jamis just for a little taste because of the

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Speaker 1: roller coaster that is the full Jamis experience, and we

325
00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 1: got it with Jamis last week where he had that

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Speaker 1: team in contention to win the game, leading for much

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Speaker 1: of it. Then they're down seven points with forty four

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Speaker 1: seconds left around the Packers eighteen yard line. Jamis goes

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Speaker 1: back to pass, throws it to the end zone. Jalen

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Speaker 1: Hyatt picked off in the corner of the end zone.

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Speaker 1: You can't blame Jamis for this one A covered because

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Speaker 1: the number was seven and a half, so God bless,

333
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 1: but also Jalen Hyatt just gave up on the route.

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Speaker 1: And this was not a Jameis Winston tragedy. It was

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hyatt not doing his job. I don't know that

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00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:23,160
Speaker 1: the Giants have the same deadcat bounce against a desperate

337
00:17:23,280 --> 00:17:24,920
Speaker 1: desperate and that's what they are right now.

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Speaker 4: Detroit Lionstein, it's shockingly going to be my Simon says,

339
00:17:28,359 --> 00:17:32,520
Speaker 4: to give me, Simon says, presented by hard Rock Bett

340
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:34,159
Speaker 4: minus ten and a half.

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Speaker 2: I want to play a game.

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00:17:36,080 --> 00:17:40,200
Speaker 3: Simon says, Wow, it's it's a big favorite.

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Speaker 2: But it's really about this lines and how we always

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Speaker 2: just play this spot and it's just good to us.

345
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Speaker 3: We always talk about giving out long term winners, and

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Speaker 3: this is the definition of one. Tons of stats here

347
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,119
Speaker 3: why it's so good to back the Lions here And

348
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Speaker 3: it's a unique spot, right, You're coming off a week

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Speaker 3: where data converted a single fourth down where immediately issue

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Speaker 3: as that happened.

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Speaker 2: It's good. I was like, all right, I gotta find

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Speaker 2: some staff.

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Speaker 1: Hello, de try.

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Speaker 3: You what is this Lion's team like after they don't

355
00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:14,160
Speaker 3: get a single fourth down the week before? Shockingly, they're

356
00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:17,560
Speaker 3: nine and one straight up, which you know, okay, they

357
00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 3: do bounce back after the struggle of the week, but

358
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Speaker 3: they're eight and two against the spread in games after

359
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:27,000
Speaker 3: they fail to cover a fourth down, so pretty imparent

360
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:30,040
Speaker 3: they've bounce back in this game, and those games they've covered,

361
00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 3: they've covered by an average of ten points per game

362
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:35,400
Speaker 3: in that spot. So that's just bringing in what it's

363
00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:37,800
Speaker 3: like after they struggle on fourth down. Now, let's get

364
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,880
Speaker 3: to all the golf stats. We know golf in these games,

365
00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:43,280
Speaker 3: he's always big a bouncing back because lines have just

366
00:18:43,320 --> 00:18:45,240
Speaker 3: been so good, and we've talked the last three years

367
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,520
Speaker 3: they've been seventy percent against the spread, So you're gonna

368
00:18:47,520 --> 00:18:50,040
Speaker 3: have some really good stats with golf and Campbell as

369
00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 3: a combo, and all of a straight up loss, they're

370
00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:57,199
Speaker 3: twenty two and eight against the spread, So they just

371
00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 3: tend to bounce back and the.

372
00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 2: Books don't account for it, so we always play that spot.

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Speaker 3: And they're actually shockingly covered thirteen in a row in

374
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Speaker 3: this spot, so they haven't not covered after a loss

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Speaker 3: since November one of twenty twenty two.

376
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Speaker 2: Shout out to my guy Evan Abrams.

377
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,879
Speaker 3: That's an amazing stat where it's like they're just a

378
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:19,160
Speaker 3: machine after these type of losses and you go, okay, well,

379
00:19:19,320 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 3: this is a big spread.

380
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 2: What is their record when the spread's above four?

381
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:26,679
Speaker 3: Golf and Campbell, they're perfect eight to zero against the

382
00:19:26,720 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 3: spread when the spread is higher than four after a

383
00:19:29,440 --> 00:19:33,399
Speaker 3: straight up loss, So feels like a really good bounce

384
00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,280
Speaker 3: back spot. We talk of the time Golf indoors after

385
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,639
Speaker 3: a loss twenty four and seven against the spread, So

386
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:41,439
Speaker 3: it's like, again, it's just all points to it, and

387
00:19:41,480 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 3: you just look at the on field matchup wise, the

388
00:19:45,280 --> 00:19:48,720
Speaker 3: getting upfield can be neutered by the Giants with a

389
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,560
Speaker 3: good run game, and we know what Detroit want to do.

390
00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 2: They want to run the ball.

391
00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 3: They just kind of get it done against an Eagles

392
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,720
Speaker 3: team that just has a really different front. They arguet

393
00:19:56,760 --> 00:19:59,520
Speaker 3: great against the run because they have great linebackers, which

394
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Speaker 3: the Giants do not. That's the Giant's biggest weakness. So

395
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 3: love the match of the Lions, love all the trends

396
00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:07,080
Speaker 3: for this Lions team. And yeah, I can't believe in

397
00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,520
Speaker 3: making an over ten point favorite my favorite bet, but

398
00:20:10,080 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 3: I've just been been heavy into it, so I figure

399
00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:12,200
Speaker 3: out to give it out.

400
00:20:12,480 --> 00:20:15,040
Speaker 1: Can I support you because I want to support you,

401
00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,680
Speaker 1: because I will support you? Which Lions team are we getting?

402
00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:18,960
Speaker 2: Right?

403
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 1: That's what people are going to ask. Are we getting

404
00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 1: the Lions and outdoors week one, who scored six points

405
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:29,080
Speaker 1: against the Packers? Are we getting the Lions outdoors in

406
00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:32,680
Speaker 1: Week eleven who scored nine points against the Eagles? Or

407
00:20:32,720 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 1: are we getting the Lions in Week two who beat

408
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,520
Speaker 1: the Bears at home indoors by thirty one? Are we

409
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,560
Speaker 1: getting the team to beat the Browns indoors at home

410
00:20:42,920 --> 00:20:44,680
Speaker 1: by twenty four? A We're getting the team to beat

411
00:20:44,680 --> 00:20:47,880
Speaker 1: the Bucks indoors at home by fifteen.

412
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,400
Speaker 3: It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been

413
00:20:51,440 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 3: this excited about the Lions. Talk about rescoring the roar,

414
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 3: listen to them.

415
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Speaker 1: Who do we think the Giants are more like? The

416
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:05,440
Speaker 1: Bearers in week two, the Browns whenever. That's why I

417
00:21:05,480 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 1: feel confident, like everything you just said about a bounce

418
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,760
Speaker 1: back spot on Jared Goff and this team has shown

419
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:13,440
Speaker 1: us enough that they know how to manage when things

420
00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 1: aren't going well, and they will have a sort of

421
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:24,960
Speaker 1: mentality that does not accept this kind of performance. We've

422
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,280
Speaker 1: already seen it multiple times this year. I do believe

423
00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 1: we will see it again this week. You get the

424
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:34,840
Speaker 1: Giants betting against Jamis, and the full Jamis experience does

425
00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:39,760
Speaker 1: not scare me here. Simon, you're my bff, You're Mike Campadre,

426
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:43,359
Speaker 1: you're my co host. I'm with you one hundred percent

427
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:47,400
Speaker 1: minus ten and a half for this. I will ask

428
00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,720
Speaker 1: that in return you support me later in the show.

429
00:21:51,160 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 3: That's fair, And like I said, it's just a unique

430
00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:55,520
Speaker 3: spot lines. That was the first time they have scored

431
00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 3: double digits in like fifty games, so you know they

432
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:02,280
Speaker 3: got embarrassedlack we last week putting them nine points, and

433
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,399
Speaker 3: you know, I just don't think the public will be

434
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:04,719
Speaker 3: on him here.

435
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:05,800
Speaker 2: So that's why I'm making it this bet.

436
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,920
Speaker 3: I just don't think people are a little scared off

437
00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,000
Speaker 3: by them right now, and they might be sucked in

438
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 3: on this Giants team.

439
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,199
Speaker 2: This number, I just I want you to take the

440
00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:15,840
Speaker 2: Lions here. It's too low. This number ship closer to thirteen.

441
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,320
Speaker 3: But you're getting some points here because one team covered

442
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 3: and looked pretty well, played pretty well, where the Lions

443
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 3: just got embarrassed. And that's the last thing people remember.

444
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:25,160
Speaker 1: Look, we do have to ask why do we think

445
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:26,760
Speaker 1: it moved from eleven and a half to ten and

446
00:22:26,800 --> 00:22:31,119
Speaker 1: a half on you know, Sunday night and Monday, because

447
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:33,719
Speaker 1: that wasn't the public betting into the eleven and a half.

448
00:22:36,040 --> 00:22:38,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I mean the professionalism bent the Giants this

449
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 3: year and it's been good for him, So it's probably

450
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 3: what it is. They just they like the Giants the profitable,

451
00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:43,879
Speaker 3: but the Giants.

452
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,440
Speaker 1: This year we don't. And we'll take all the sharp calls.

453
00:22:46,480 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 2: Yeah we really haven't.

454
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 1: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens. Ravens are thirteen and

455
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:56,240
Speaker 1: a half, has moved down half a point. We're already

456
00:22:56,280 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: on the Seahawks, We're already on the Lions. I feel

457
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,639
Speaker 1: no need to figure out a way to bet the

458
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:08,720
Speaker 1: Ravens and I can't find a way to bet the Jets.

459
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:11,359
Speaker 3: I don't know, I shockingly kind of like the Ravens,

460
00:23:11,400 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 3: but I get what you're saying.

461
00:23:15,119 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 2: I just I can't get over how bad this Jets

462
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:22,680
Speaker 2: team is and terrible. Like my biggest.

463
00:23:22,280 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 3: Issue is Lamar in this team. They're definitely not worthy

464
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,600
Speaker 3: of this number in any sense. They have not played

465
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 3: well consistently at all this season. The hardest part for

466
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,800
Speaker 3: me is just going through all the numbers where it's

467
00:23:34,840 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 3: like the more the Ravens they own the Jets every

468
00:23:40,119 --> 00:23:43,520
Speaker 3: time they play. They just dominate this team historically. And

469
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 3: you know at home, Ravens six and zero straight up

470
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:49,720
Speaker 3: five and one against the spread against the Jets, winning

471
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:53,480
Speaker 3: by fourteen points per game historically. And I don't know

472
00:23:53,480 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 3: if people know this. The Ravens only been around since

473
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 3: like ninety nine or two thousand. It's not like a

474
00:23:57,560 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 3: long battle. They've just dominated in the last twenty five years.

475
00:24:01,400 --> 00:24:03,800
Speaker 3: Lamar is more of an eight point favorite his career.

476
00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 3: He's sixteen to eleven against this spread. So if you

477
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:08,679
Speaker 3: are going to bet the Ravens, I get it. I

478
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:10,320
Speaker 3: think me and Chat I've already talked about we're allar

479
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 3: enough favorites this week. I can avoid this, but I

480
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: get it like I'm tempted here. I just think this

481
00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:19,400
Speaker 3: Jets teams atrocious and they could easily get rolled here

482
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 3: in many different ways. So I got away over the

483
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:25,119
Speaker 3: last week with Cleveland against this Ravens team. I'm not

484
00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:26,720
Speaker 3: trying to go back to the well the Jets. So

485
00:24:27,359 --> 00:24:29,040
Speaker 3: I'll end up in my pick pulls, probably end up

486
00:24:29,040 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 3: on the Ravens. But I know, people, I'm on three

487
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 3: huge favorites this week. It's it's a weird week.

488
00:24:34,040 --> 00:24:35,639
Speaker 1: Well, look that I was just gonna say, Like the

489
00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:37,920
Speaker 1: flip side is we just bet the Ravens to cover

490
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 1: our bases to make sure if we're betting three big favorites,

491
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:43,000
Speaker 1: we got them all, and we don't choose the two

492
00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: that lose and we leave out the one that wins.

493
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,919
Speaker 3: My buddy is a sucker who bets ten point like teasers.

494
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 3: He is loving this week, and I'm like, my god,

495
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 3: this is usually not a good sign.

496
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,560
Speaker 1: The first game. I agree with you about Lamar. In

497
00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,359
Speaker 1: the first game against Miami, to me, he wasn't great,

498
00:25:01,400 --> 00:25:03,440
Speaker 1: but that was sort of an ease yourself in game

499
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:06,560
Speaker 1: after the injury, and last week we knew we didn't

500
00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:08,679
Speaker 1: expect him to be great because it was against the Browns.

501
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:11,199
Speaker 1: It was a rock fight. This to me feels like

502
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: when with the Ravens having now for in a row,

503
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: this is when Lamar sort of gets comfortable and unleashes,

504
00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:24,160
Speaker 1: knowing that he's not against division rival on the road

505
00:25:24,200 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: and it's not his first game back, when he's a

506
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:30,760
Speaker 1: little bit still a little bit tentative. So I can't

507
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:33,280
Speaker 1: bet the Jets. So it's Ravens or or nothing. Here

508
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:39,880
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545
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Speaker 1: The New England Patriots are visiting the Cincinnati Bengals, and

546
00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:48,680
Speaker 1: the Bengals are seven and a half point favorites. Joe

547
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,679
Speaker 1: Flacco may still be banged up. Jamar Chase will not

548
00:27:52,720 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 1: be in the game because he was spitting on Jalen Ramsey.

549
00:27:57,560 --> 00:28:04,159
Speaker 1: Everything about this game with a Bengals secondary that is

550
00:28:04,200 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: so suspect and so susceptible to big plays. Second most

551
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:15,400
Speaker 1: yards per past, the most EPA, highest EPA per past

552
00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 1: the forced fourth, lowest QB pressure rate. I don't think

553
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: I need to go on yet. The fact that the

554
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:31,399
Speaker 1: hook is still out there baiting us is weird to

555
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:38,720
Speaker 1: me because it's clear the books are just hoping against hope,

556
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 1: against hope. The professional betters are going to come in

557
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,560
Speaker 1: on the Bengals because they know how much money they're

558
00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 1: going to get on the Patriots.

559
00:28:47,040 --> 00:28:50,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, easy bet, easy spot, long term winner if Bengals.

560
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:52,320
Speaker 2: If it's Joe Flacco, it's a no brainer.

561
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 3: But if it's not, I am happy to not have

562
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 3: zero dollars and not invest in this game and walk

563
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 3: away from it. So I got money to burn, I

564
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,720
Speaker 3: can bet. I'll bet the Bangal here people want to

565
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 3: be patient and make sure it's Flacco. I can't fault

566
00:29:03,520 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 3: you for it because I will not have any money

567
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:08,440
Speaker 3: invested in a Bengals quarterback not named Joe Flacco or

568
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 3: Joe Burrow.

569
00:29:09,520 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 2: So to me, if you're looking for why this.

570
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:15,840
Speaker 3: Is such a magical spots, it's the key thing we

571
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:18,360
Speaker 3: talk about all the time with football is how hard

572
00:29:18,360 --> 00:29:21,600
Speaker 3: it is to win consistently. It is so hard to

573
00:29:21,680 --> 00:29:25,240
Speaker 3: string together wins consistently. And that's what's been shocking about

574
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: this Patriots team. And they're in a unique spot. They've

575
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 3: won eight straight games, this team that like again another

576
00:29:30,880 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 3: team the nerds are just beating up because they're just

577
00:29:32,960 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 3: not as good as their record perceives and how the

578
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 3: public per season.

579
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 2: They're just simply not so.

580
00:29:39,200 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 3: It's I think where I like, I love and respect

581
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 3: for Abel and I think that's part of the record

582
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:46,280
Speaker 3: and how great Mays played obviously at MVP level, but

583
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 3: again eight straight games they won.

584
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:50,480
Speaker 2: Now they're on the road.

585
00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:53,920
Speaker 3: Teams in this exact spot since twenty ten, fourteen and

586
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 3: thirty four against the spread. Nightmare, And like you just

587
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 3: keep going back, you know, teams an eight wins streak

588
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 3: are thirty nine sixty sixty one and two against the spread,

589
00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: so thirty nine percent since twenty ten. That's eleven and

590
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:14,280
Speaker 3: twenty and one against the spread since twenty twenty. So

591
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: like all these numbers like you give you people, it's

592
00:30:16,080 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 3: just a really really bad spot. It's just hard to

593
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: play at a high level consistently and just not have

594
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:22,239
Speaker 3: things bounce against you.

595
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:23,600
Speaker 2: Like we say all the time.

596
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 3: It's a really stupid game with a weird shad ball.

597
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 3: It's just not going to bounce your way and eventually

598
00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:30,200
Speaker 3: it's going to catch up to you. So we're simply

599
00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 3: playing the number here. There is zero information a data

600
00:30:33,400 --> 00:30:35,360
Speaker 3: I could give you why to back this Bengals team

601
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:39,240
Speaker 3: on the field. They are terrible defensively. The Patriots, especially

602
00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:41,320
Speaker 3: scheme wise, can outscheme them. Drake may is playing at

603
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,960
Speaker 3: such a high level, it's just simply playing a number

604
00:30:44,000 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 3: on an overvalied Patriots team.

605
00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: Are they better than the Bengals? Yeah?

606
00:30:47,360 --> 00:30:49,240
Speaker 3: Are they seven and a half points better when it's

607
00:30:49,280 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 3: Joe Flacco? No, that's that's an egregious number where I

608
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,160
Speaker 3: think that Bengals can keep it close and this this

609
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 3: Patriot's defense can be passed on. So it's just once

610
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,240
Speaker 3: again not going to be hammered because it's out. We

611
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 3: don't know yet he's gonna be the quarterback, but historically

612
00:31:03,800 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 3: it's just a bad spot for this Patriots team. But

613
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: the books, the number reflects that if this was six

614
00:31:08,720 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 3: and a half, I could talk us into taking the

615
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 3: Patriots now it was still under seven.

616
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: But it's not.

617
00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,200
Speaker 3: It's just moved too much. In my opinion, I got

618
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 3: to give about the seven and a half on the Bengals.

619
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: Totally agree. This is a week where there's a lot

620
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: of from a historical betting perspective and from the way

621
00:31:26,320 --> 00:31:29,959
Speaker 1: professionals like to look at these games, and we've got

622
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: a couple of them coming up. Weird spots, numbers in

623
00:31:34,920 --> 00:31:36,880
Speaker 1: which the advantage is to the team that just got

624
00:31:36,880 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 1: blown out and it makes you uncomfortable. And one of

625
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 1: those games is definitely the Cincinnati Bengals plus seven and

626
00:31:43,840 --> 00:31:46,960
Speaker 1: a half. They are just begging you to take that

627
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I'm with you. I'll be curious

628
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,479
Speaker 1: to see. Like on Thursday, we're gonna have another conversation

629
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: about this one. The more about the quarterback. But if

630
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:58,080
Speaker 1: that seven and a half is out there, I would

631
00:31:58,080 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: not be uncomfortable playing it, like the confidence I have

632
00:32:00,640 --> 00:32:05,640
Speaker 1: today not having a guess that was just guy. We

633
00:32:05,760 --> 00:32:08,160
Speaker 1: got so many games going to be brutal for us

634
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:12,160
Speaker 1: this week, Indy at Kansas City. Kansas City is a

635
00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:14,440
Speaker 1: three point favorite. This one has moved from three and

636
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: a half down to three. It looks like it could

637
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:19,920
Speaker 1: move back to three and a half. The juice is

638
00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,000
Speaker 1: telling us it's going to move back to three and

639
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 1: a half. I have an opinion. I think I know

640
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 1: where you are. That's my opinion. I just want to

641
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:34,680
Speaker 1: make this statement. I want to sort of illuminate you. Ready, Yeah,

642
00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:39,760
Speaker 1: what defense gave Mahomes the most trouble in the early

643
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 1: part of this decade? Was it the bills? Uh no

644
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: you start no, no, no, no, no, just say yes

645
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: or no, yes or no? Was it the Bills? Go

646
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:52,720
Speaker 1: with me on my gimmick? Here was it the Ravens?

647
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 1: No Cincinnati Bengals. Who was the team that consistently beat

648
00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: Who was the team that said they owned Patrick Mahomes?

649
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:05,480
Speaker 1: Remember all the fights between the mayors of Cincinnati and

650
00:33:05,560 --> 00:33:09,920
Speaker 1: Kansas City. Who is the defensive coordinator for that Bengals team?

651
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:14,600
Speaker 1: Who is now the defensive coordinator for the Indianapolis Colts?

652
00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 1: Lou anroumo I looked at the stats twenty twenty one

653
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 1: when the Bengals went to the Super Bowl and beat

654
00:33:21,520 --> 00:33:23,920
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in the playoffs, and twenty twenty five with

655
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:28,600
Speaker 1: the Colts defensively, the stats are almost exactly the same

656
00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 1: running I would say eighty percent of the same scheme.

657
00:33:34,040 --> 00:33:39,360
Speaker 1: If this Colts defense is healthy, can they get into

658
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 1: Mahomes Lanes the way those Bengals teams that gave them

659
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,000
Speaker 1: the most trouble used to do?

660
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: Yeah?

661
00:33:47,720 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: Why are you laughing at me?

662
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: It's you. I just let how long you go with

663
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 2: some of these things? I don't know.

664
00:33:54,600 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 3: I felt like we were gonna take I'm gonna take

665
00:33:56,160 --> 00:33:57,120
Speaker 3: the Colts no matter what.

666
00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 2: I wanted to get back to three and a half.

667
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 3: So I'm not going to force an this show, but

668
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 3: this was gonna be what mis Simon says if it

669
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 3: was three and a half start hard Rock.

670
00:34:04,680 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: I really love the Colts.

671
00:34:08,880 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 3: It's stupid, but there's certain teams players just struggle with,

672
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 3: and Mahomes has always struggled against the Colts, doesn't matter

673
00:34:17,120 --> 00:34:18,640
Speaker 3: who the quarterback has been.

674
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 2: I mean, he literally lost in his career.

675
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:22,360
Speaker 3: He has one and two straight up and against the

676
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 3: spread against the Colts. His two losses one was Matt Ryan,

677
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 3: the other one was Jacoby Brissett, So Matt Ryan in

678
00:34:28,320 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 3: twenty twenty two, Jacoby Brissett and I don't even know

679
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 3: twenty eighteen or twenty nineteen. He's just struggled against him

680
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 3: for whatever reason that is. And it's a unique spot.

681
00:34:37,640 --> 00:34:41,120
Speaker 3: It's a Colts team off of bye week, which you know,

682
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 3: bad teams, I don't think bye weeks are that big

683
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 3: of a deal, but really well coached teams, I think

684
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:48,120
Speaker 3: it is a big deal. And the Colts, to me,

685
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:50,880
Speaker 3: are really well coached team, even how bad their defense is.

686
00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:53,319
Speaker 2: They've been really competitive in every game they've been this year.

687
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 3: And you know, it all goes back, it goes back

688
00:34:56,640 --> 00:35:00,319
Speaker 3: to this Mahomes team, it's not the same mahone And

689
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:02,359
Speaker 3: we've said it this year. There is something a little

690
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:04,640
Speaker 3: different and it's starting to show up what the difference is.

691
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 2: They're zero to five in one score games.

692
00:35:07,440 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 1: It's like we talked about it.

693
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, like at the end of.

694
00:35:09,680 --> 00:35:12,360
Speaker 3: The day, that's the biggest thing, right, it's just not

695
00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 3: winning close games and just doesn't feel like a game

696
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 3: they blow out, right, I don't know about you. I

697
00:35:16,160 --> 00:35:18,680
Speaker 3: don't think they blow out the Colts. It can happen, right,

698
00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:21,439
Speaker 3: It's Daniel Jones. We know we're been into. He could

699
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:25,200
Speaker 3: totally pumpkin throw three four picks and that's how it goes.

700
00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 3: But just matchup wise, it's it's really a two. This

701
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 3: number should be most people have this model two one

702
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 3: and a half. The Chiefs are getting the bump from

703
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,480
Speaker 3: what they've done before and the same thing I talked

704
00:35:36,520 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: about that Broncos number. I just they weren't a three

705
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,040
Speaker 3: and a half point better team. I didn't think they'd

706
00:35:41,080 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: went out right, But you know that's that's the year

707
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 3: it's been for this Chiefs team.

708
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,120
Speaker 2: So a lot of unique stats to back here with

709
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 2: this Colts team.

710
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 3: It's a rare spot right, it's a cold team going

711
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 3: off of by facing against a Mahomes team and Chiefs

712
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,359
Speaker 3: team teams in this exact spot against Mahomes there's six

713
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,279
Speaker 3: and three against the spread, covering by five points in

714
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 3: those matchups, So Mahomes struggled when those teams are underdogs

715
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:06,320
Speaker 3: against Mahomes in this spot.

716
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 2: So off of bye week.

717
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 3: Playing Mahomes, they are six and one against the spread.

718
00:36:11,200 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 3: The only loss forty nine ers in that Super Bowl

719
00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: against the Chiefs.

720
00:36:16,520 --> 00:36:20,399
Speaker 2: So historically this is a good spot.

721
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,440
Speaker 3: Think about what needed to go right in that Super

722
00:36:22,480 --> 00:36:25,160
Speaker 3: Bowl for Mahomes not only to cover, but win that game.

723
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,040
Speaker 3: I don't know people remember, it's like everything broke their

724
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: way in that fourth quarter. So it feels like we

725
00:36:31,160 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 3: have a lot of things work in our favorite with

726
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:34,279
Speaker 3: this Colts team. It's really about the line. I'm not

727
00:36:34,280 --> 00:36:36,319
Speaker 3: going to make people bad a bad line like hard rock.

728
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 3: We say they're a sharp book. The Pros have hit

729
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,200
Speaker 3: the Colts. They bet this down, shop around, go find

730
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:42,800
Speaker 3: the three and have find the hook on the Colts

731
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,080
Speaker 3: because we'll need it. This game easily could be the

732
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 3: Chiefs winning by three. We know Mahomes is due to

733
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:50,840
Speaker 3: have a type of game. But it's just about the

734
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:53,560
Speaker 3: number for me. I just I think we're getting inflated

735
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 3: line of the Colts, well rested Colts team that going

736
00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 3: to be able to move a ball against this Chiefs defense.

737
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:01,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay. Green Bay is a six and

738
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,400
Speaker 1: a half point favorite at home. Right now, Josh Jacobs

739
00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 1: is questionable. It's possible we're gonna have to make a

740
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:12,840
Speaker 1: call on this game without knowing his availability. At the

741
00:37:12,920 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 1: end of the day, I'm not sure that matters because

742
00:37:16,160 --> 00:37:20,959
Speaker 1: the Vikings defense continues to be suspect against the run,

743
00:37:21,080 --> 00:37:23,200
Speaker 1: giving up one hundred and forty yards to the Bears.

744
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 1: What we do know is that JJ McCarthy is very

745
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:31,400
Speaker 1: good in the first fifteen and very good when his

746
00:37:31,440 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 1: team is down in the fourth quarter, and in between,

747
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:39,680
Speaker 1: he looks like a rookie who's overthinking, not thinking inaccurate

748
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: when he's not pressured. If this were seven, do we

749
00:37:45,560 --> 00:37:50,760
Speaker 1: bet the number and bet the Vikings assuming cardiac JJ

750
00:37:51,719 --> 00:37:55,720
Speaker 1: will kick open the back door at six and a half.

751
00:37:56,800 --> 00:37:58,520
Speaker 1: I'm not really into this game.

752
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:02,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think we're both in the same page.

753
00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:04,800
Speaker 3: I just we don't trust either quarterback or either a

754
00:38:04,840 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 3: team right now, Green Bay or the Vikings. This feels

755
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 3: like a Vikings number. I am shocked they've kept it

756
00:38:11,760 --> 00:38:14,920
Speaker 3: under seven. Maybe I'm underrating all the injuries the Packers

757
00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 3: have suffered, But how can you trust JJ.

758
00:38:18,160 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 2: On the road. He's just so inconsistent, He's so bad.

759
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:23,240
Speaker 3: You would think this would be such a big moment,

760
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:24,839
Speaker 3: too big of a spot for him to show up.

761
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 3: But my god, they're just getting pounded by Packers and

762
00:38:28,960 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 3: money and this is touch seven a couple of times

763
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,400
Speaker 3: and come right back down, so slay. The pros are

764
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,479
Speaker 3: on the Vikings, they're back on them here, and yeah,

765
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:41,440
Speaker 3: it's a it's a unique spot, right the Packers for

766
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:45,799
Speaker 3: some reason LA floor struggle against KOC. Like historically they're

767
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,120
Speaker 3: in a weird spot too, where they've lost three straight

768
00:38:49,400 --> 00:38:51,239
Speaker 3: or they've lost two straight I should say against the

769
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 3: spread and straight up against the Vikings, which hasn't happened

770
00:38:54,080 --> 00:38:57,279
Speaker 3: in since two thousand and five for the Packers. So

771
00:38:57,360 --> 00:39:00,640
Speaker 3: whatever it is these last couple of years, I guess

772
00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 3: going towards the Vikings. But I still think some of

773
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,359
Speaker 3: those stats, it's like I just I can't get over

774
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 3: how bad JJ is.

775
00:39:06,440 --> 00:39:08,600
Speaker 2: So yeah, I think we're on the same boat. I'll

776
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:09,279
Speaker 2: pass this one.

777
00:39:09,320 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 3: I probably should be on the Packers, but I just

778
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 3: I can't trust them right now.

779
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 2: Is big favorites agree.

780
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:17,600
Speaker 1: I don't know if we're going to agree on this

781
00:39:17,600 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 1: next one, but I asked you for support and this

782
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 1: is going to be one of those games. Cleveland at

783
00:39:22,280 --> 00:39:25,760
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. Las Vegas right now is a three point favorite.

784
00:39:26,680 --> 00:39:29,760
Speaker 1: It's moving higher most books that are three and a half,

785
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:33,319
Speaker 1: which makes me sort of not want to offer it.

786
00:39:33,400 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: And it's almost Chad's choice. The Las Vegas Raiders minus

787
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 1: three look last night was ugly. And when George Pickens

788
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:48,840
Speaker 1: starts looking like he's Darnell Washington, the three hundred pound

789
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 1: tight end for the Steelers, and he's running over people,

790
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:57,000
Speaker 1: he's running through people, he's stiff arming people. Plus he's

791
00:39:57,040 --> 00:39:59,680
Speaker 1: making guys look like they're not even trying to tackle them.

792
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:03,280
Speaker 1: That is a bad look for Raiders, for the Raiders defense,

793
00:40:03,320 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 1: it's a bad look for people betting on the Raiders.

794
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 1: It's a bad look for people rooting for the Raiders.

795
00:40:08,600 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: Gino did his part getting the team into or just

796
00:40:12,520 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 1: outside the red zone, throwing picks, taking sacks, not getting

797
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 1: them touchdowns. However, team coming off a blowout at home

798
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 1: against a team that just had its max effort in

799
00:40:26,320 --> 00:40:30,879
Speaker 1: the prior week, a Browns team we know gives up

800
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 1: ten more points per game on the road than it

801
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:39,239
Speaker 1: does at home. This feels like a light them up,

802
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 1: Gino moment. Prove you're a professional. I'm on the Raiders

803
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 1: a minus three.

804
00:40:45,960 --> 00:40:47,799
Speaker 3: Let's have a conversation to a minus three and a half,

805
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 3: because that's where I think we're gonna have to make

806
00:40:49,200 --> 00:40:51,600
Speaker 3: a real decision. Because I agree with you and everything

807
00:40:51,640 --> 00:40:55,040
Speaker 3: you've said. My biggest reason just for you to take

808
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:59,839
Speaker 3: the Raiders here is just Sanders possibly might have put

809
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:04,920
Speaker 3: up the worst quarterbacking we've ever seen, just data wives like,

810
00:41:05,560 --> 00:41:07,319
Speaker 3: which is shocking if you go through how horrible some

811
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 3: quarterbacks are playing. I mean, I'm blank on his name.

812
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:11,160
Speaker 3: I just had I just lost it. I remember we

813
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,359
Speaker 3: had a guy who started against the Chargers. I think

814
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,680
Speaker 3: he threw like five or six picks in his first start.

815
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 1: Oh, I know you were talking about he played for

816
00:41:18,400 --> 00:41:21,359
Speaker 1: the Bills for a while too. I think that's the

817
00:41:21,360 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: fifth interception tonight from.

818
00:41:24,960 --> 00:41:26,879
Speaker 3: We've just had a run of just horrible quarterbacks, and

819
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:31,279
Speaker 3: even that, Sanders somehow did worse in his performance, so

820
00:41:32,280 --> 00:41:35,000
Speaker 3: I'll support it. It's a unique spot too, where it's

821
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 3: it's a Browns quarterback making their first start, which we've joked,

822
00:41:42,480 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 3: but we've been playing it. We automatically play the other

823
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,040
Speaker 3: side and take the money line because it's it's got

824
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 3: proof to it that they're ow to seventeen their last

825
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,960
Speaker 3: seventeen quarters for Sanders. The last time a quarterback is

826
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:57,360
Speaker 3: one making his first start for the Browns was nineteen

827
00:41:57,440 --> 00:41:57,960
Speaker 3: ninety five.

828
00:41:58,120 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 2: Do you remember the name of the quarterback?

829
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 1: It wasn't Tim Couch was it. First name was Eric

830
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: Eric Kramer. I don't know.

831
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,440
Speaker 2: His last name was spelled ze i e R.

832
00:42:09,840 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, he played quarterback for Georgia. I think his number.

833
00:42:12,600 --> 00:42:14,839
Speaker 2: I've never heard of him. So you remember him from

834
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:15,359
Speaker 2: back in the day.

835
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,359
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, I remember from back in the day.

836
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:20,040
Speaker 2: So that's the last time a Browns quarterback has started

837
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 2: and won.

838
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:22,879
Speaker 4: His first their exire I think was his name, Yeah,

839
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:23,960
Speaker 4: nineteen ninety five.

840
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:25,560
Speaker 2: Check. Yeah, So that's what I.

841
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,239
Speaker 3: Want to be against you and be like this is

842
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 3: we're backing Genos Smith, which you know, anyone can look

843
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 3: up the numbers.

844
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 2: Gino Smith.

845
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:33,600
Speaker 3: I think he's eleven and twenty against the spread as

846
00:42:33,600 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 3: a favorite. He just you hate him as a dog.

847
00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:37,799
Speaker 3: You don't want to bet him as a favorite. He's

848
00:42:37,800 --> 00:42:39,800
Speaker 3: even worse as a favorite. He's terrible as favorite.

849
00:42:39,800 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 2: But too late.

850
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, it feels like a unique spot. Are we going

851
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:45,240
Speaker 3: to take Raderos on minus three and a half? That's

852
00:42:45,520 --> 00:42:48,319
Speaker 3: that's the choice there. And once again it's there's a

853
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:50,680
Speaker 3: bunch of spots, uh, numbers that are just bad against

854
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:54,760
Speaker 3: the Browns. I haven't sanders here the Browns since twenty

855
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,799
Speaker 3: twenty two. When they're playing a team with a one

856
00:42:57,880 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 3: percentage below forty percent on the road, they are two

857
00:43:02,040 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 3: and nine straight up, one and eleven against the spread.

858
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:06,360
Speaker 3: They've lost seven in a row in this spot, and

859
00:43:06,400 --> 00:43:08,919
Speaker 3: we've talked about they're just a different team. They're terrible

860
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:10,840
Speaker 3: in the road. This Browns team, their defense just simply

861
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 3: doesn't travel. So I hate this one. I was hoping

862
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: we don't get avoid it, not bet it. But I

863
00:43:15,040 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 3: know there's a lot of numbers we love the Raiders.

864
00:43:17,360 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 3: So I'll be up front people, I'm gonna be heavy

865
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 3: on the money line of the Raiders. I don't know

866
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,160
Speaker 3: how much I'm gonna touch minus three and a half.

867
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,719
Speaker 3: I just I can't get over it. G you know,

868
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 3: minus three and a half favorite, But I have a

869
00:43:28,320 --> 00:43:30,360
Speaker 3: feeling chat might get me there come Sunday morning.

870
00:43:30,840 --> 00:43:33,359
Speaker 1: Well, listen, if we're not gonna do Geno, then let's

871
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 1: do something else that's really gross. And this one is

872
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: gonna be Chad's Choice presented by hard Rock Bat. I

873
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,920
Speaker 1: am going with the Arizona Cardinals plus two and a

874
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,080
Speaker 1: half against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

875
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 2: Are you sure you want to do this? Are you

876
00:43:45,920 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 2: willing to make a choice? My choice? We can't run

877
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:53,400
Speaker 2: from way? Are sharp news can just see it? You

878
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 2: know what I mean?

879
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:00,760
Speaker 1: I know, I know. I just bet the Cardinals plus

880
00:44:00,800 --> 00:44:04,600
Speaker 1: three against the Niners didn't work out for us. I know.

881
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissett just sent a just set a record forty

882
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 1: seven completions, going forty seven to fifty seven in the

883
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 1: game against the Niners. This is a team that started

884
00:44:15,200 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 1: off playing very competitive and has been trending worse and

885
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 1: worse and worse and worse every single week. But I

886
00:44:23,680 --> 00:44:26,920
Speaker 1: don't think Trevor Lawrence is long for the Jacksonville Jaguars.

887
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:29,880
Speaker 1: Let me give you some stats, because the Jags just

888
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:34,320
Speaker 1: beat the Chargers thirty five to six. Liam Cone basically

889
00:44:34,360 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 1: took the ball out of Trevor Lawrence's hands in that game.

890
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:39,800
Speaker 1: On the first TD drive of the game in the

891
00:44:39,840 --> 00:44:42,239
Speaker 1: first quarter, he threw two short passes, there was a

892
00:44:42,280 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 1: long DPI and then it was all runs. On the

893
00:44:45,760 --> 00:44:48,640
Speaker 1: third drive of the game, he threw a pick. Overall,

894
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:50,640
Speaker 1: he was fourteen of twenty two for one hundred and

895
00:44:50,680 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: fifty three yards. They ran it forty seven times for

896
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: one hundred and ninety two yards. My point is, I

897
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 1: got a team at home as a dog off a

898
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:07,920
Speaker 1: blowout against a team that just blew somebody out, and

899
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:10,880
Speaker 1: if you're just looking at the score, you think that

900
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 1: it's a really powerhouse team and they're not. I'm just

901
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 1: not going to be a buyer of the Jags. I'd

902
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 1: much rather invest in the Cardinals. It's moving to three,

903
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:24,799
Speaker 1: so like I wish I could have waited and made

904
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 1: it Chad's choice at plus three. It just hasn't gotten

905
00:45:27,360 --> 00:45:27,759
Speaker 1: there yet.

906
00:45:28,920 --> 00:45:30,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the backup a little what you're talking about

907
00:45:30,680 --> 00:45:31,600
Speaker 3: bout it being a blowout.

908
00:45:31,640 --> 00:45:36,720
Speaker 2: Since nineteen ninety, we've had teams blow.

909
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,720
Speaker 3: A fourteen point lead entering the fourth quarter a couple

910
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 3: of times, and they tend to bounce back right the

911
00:45:42,120 --> 00:45:45,160
Speaker 3: following game. So when they do bounce back the game

912
00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 3: after that game, they are seven and twenty four straight up,

913
00:45:49,320 --> 00:45:53,200
Speaker 3: nine and twenty against the spread. And even more so,

914
00:45:53,400 --> 00:45:57,400
Speaker 3: since twenty sixteen, teams in this exact position that this

915
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,480
Speaker 3: Jaguars team is in, they are zero to seven against

916
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:00,960
Speaker 3: the spread.

917
00:46:01,560 --> 00:46:02,680
Speaker 2: It's just a bad spot.

918
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,680
Speaker 3: The win the game after the comeback, So basically I'm

919
00:46:06,680 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 3: blown out or not?

920
00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:08,560
Speaker 2: I shouldn't they blown out?

921
00:46:08,560 --> 00:46:10,600
Speaker 3: They get a team come back by down by fourteen

922
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,439
Speaker 3: to fourth quarter, they win the next game like they did, big,

923
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 3: big win. They tend to lose the following game, right.

924
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:18,879
Speaker 3: There's a letdown there. And that's what I like about

925
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 3: these trends of stark updata because it just shows it

926
00:46:21,239 --> 00:46:23,360
Speaker 3: doesn't matter if it's different teams and the people changed,

927
00:46:23,560 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 3: it's it's human like these guys have a letdown.

928
00:46:25,600 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 2: It's just only natural.

929
00:46:26,880 --> 00:46:29,800
Speaker 3: On the flip side, this has to be rock Bottom

930
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:31,480
Speaker 3: buying the Cardinals.

931
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:33,839
Speaker 2: They did something that I've never seen.

932
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:37,160
Speaker 3: I'm gonna look into it if it's real, but in

933
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 3: my life I cannot remember again. Going back twenty five

934
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 3: years now, Flying Football, a team gave up forty points

935
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 3: to a divisional opponent and then gave up another forty

936
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:49,880
Speaker 3: the following week to a divisional opponent. You just don't

937
00:46:49,880 --> 00:46:51,560
Speaker 3: see it, Like they gave up forty four points to

938
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:54,200
Speaker 3: Seattle then forty one to the forty nine ers. So

939
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:59,120
Speaker 3: you would think their coach, who's a defensive guy, would

940
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:01,040
Speaker 3: get it right and this would be a spot they

941
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:03,799
Speaker 3: would bounce back against Trevor Lawrence and this Jags team.

942
00:47:03,880 --> 00:47:06,239
Speaker 3: Like it's just it feels like a really nice lined

943
00:47:06,320 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 3: up spot for this Cardinals team to get a win

944
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 3: and bounce back where they've struggled. Right, they had that

945
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:14,360
Speaker 3: huge Monday night game against Dallas, and they've not handled

946
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:15,719
Speaker 3: it well. They got like I just said, they got

947
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:17,920
Speaker 3: blown out two games in a row against divisional opponents.

948
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:19,960
Speaker 3: You expect them to bounce back get right here, and

949
00:47:19,960 --> 00:47:22,840
Speaker 3: like Chad said, this is really about the number. Like

950
00:47:23,520 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 3: this Jaguars team, this is going to be a public darling.

951
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:29,360
Speaker 3: People are hammering right now, and they're undervaluing of Cardinals

952
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:31,960
Speaker 3: team that, Yeah, they've looked bad, they've been embarrassed. They're

953
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: not three points worse than this Jaguars team and Trevor Lawrence.

954
00:47:35,239 --> 00:47:37,759
Speaker 3: So I'm with you, Chad, I like the Cardinals here.

955
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:42,080
Speaker 1: Can we not talk about Atlanta at New Orleans? New

956
00:47:42,160 --> 00:47:50,000
Speaker 1: Orleans is a two point favorite at home. That's astonishing

957
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:54,600
Speaker 1: to me. Like terrible teams. Falcons went from three to

958
00:47:54,640 --> 00:47:58,160
Speaker 1: two to three and sevens three and seven. Poenix is

959
00:47:58,600 --> 00:48:03,040
Speaker 1: likely out for the year. Tyler Shock versus Kirk Cousins.

960
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:07,080
Speaker 1: I mean, it's icy hot Bowl too. After the Flacco

961
00:48:07,320 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 1: Rogers game between how old these guys are, so let's pass.

962
00:48:15,840 --> 00:48:16,200
Speaker 2: We can.

963
00:48:16,320 --> 00:48:18,680
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm like you, I wanted to be on

964
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:21,279
Speaker 3: I want to be in Atlanta. Maybe that should be

965
00:48:21,280 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 3: assigning me I should be on the Saints though, because

966
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:24,759
Speaker 3: like you said, you shouldn't have a real opinion on

967
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:29,239
Speaker 3: this game. I will give some stats just we all

968
00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 3: know how terrible Kirk is, but I really want people

969
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 3: to hear these numbers just about how atrocious Kirk Cousins

970
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 3: has been. They are one in five straight up owens,

971
00:48:36,880 --> 00:48:40,200
Speaker 3: six against the spread, and Kirk's last six starts dating

972
00:48:40,239 --> 00:48:44,920
Speaker 3: back the last season and Kirk's career, which again he

973
00:48:45,000 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 3: was pretty good.

974
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:46,720
Speaker 2: The guy made a ton of money.

975
00:48:47,400 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 3: He is is eight games against the Saints. He's four

976
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,200
Speaker 3: and four straight up, three and five against the spread,

977
00:48:52,239 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 3: against the Saints.

978
00:48:54,080 --> 00:48:55,320
Speaker 2: Even more glaring.

979
00:48:55,719 --> 00:48:58,239
Speaker 3: In his last four games against the Saints, he is

980
00:48:58,440 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 3: oh and four against the spread. In the Super Doom,

981
00:49:01,239 --> 00:49:03,879
Speaker 3: he was owing three against the spread. He's just he's

982
00:49:03,920 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 3: gotten worse when the numbers back it up. He's consistently

983
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 3: got worse, and it's hard not to overrate him because

984
00:49:09,520 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 3: it's like we're seeing it right now.

985
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:12,040
Speaker 2: I almost got sucked in.

986
00:49:12,080 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 3: I'm getting Kirk at some books of plus two against

987
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:15,560
Speaker 3: the Saints.

988
00:49:15,680 --> 00:49:17,600
Speaker 2: They almost got me, Chad, they almost got me.

989
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 3: Even for the show I talked about It's like, man,

990
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 3: I kind of like the Falcons here, but the more

991
00:49:21,280 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 3: you look into the numbers, he's just been atrocious. It's

992
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:27,839
Speaker 3: just I can't back him here. So I really wanted

993
00:49:27,880 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 3: to fade the Saints. Like again, they came off a

994
00:49:30,000 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: huge win, then had a bye week, you expect them

995
00:49:33,719 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 3: just to totally faulter here in this spot. But maybe

996
00:49:36,600 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 3: the Falcons are what they are, just one of the

997
00:49:38,080 --> 00:49:41,080
Speaker 3: worst teams in football, loss of five or six straight games.

998
00:49:41,640 --> 00:49:44,239
Speaker 3: Now Kirk Cousins in there, who's just been deader than dead,

999
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 3: Like I just read those stats.

1000
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 2: He's just been atrocious.

1001
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:49,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, I guess people can pass on it for

1002
00:49:49,440 --> 00:49:50,479
Speaker 3: my pickpolls and other stuff.

1003
00:49:50,520 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 2: I'll play in a bet in the Saint especially at

1004
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:52,839
Speaker 2: minus one and a half.

1005
00:49:53,880 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 1: Uh Philadelphia Dallas. Dallas is now at hard Rock a

1006
00:49:59,320 --> 00:50:04,480
Speaker 1: three point underdog. When this game opened, it was Philadelphia

1007
00:50:05,080 --> 00:50:07,799
Speaker 1: minus four and a half, so it's come down quite

1008
00:50:07,840 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 1: a bit. It's a three and a half in a

1009
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:10,719
Speaker 1: lot of places, but three at hard Rock, so a

1010
00:50:10,800 --> 00:50:12,680
Speaker 1: point and a half to a point. I think it's

1011
00:50:12,719 --> 00:50:15,040
Speaker 1: one of the hardest games on the board to handicap

1012
00:50:15,080 --> 00:50:19,280
Speaker 1: this week because are we buying the Cowboys improved defense,

1013
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:23,040
Speaker 1: you know, with Quinn Williams and all those guys who

1014
00:50:23,080 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 1: came back and they they got to look good against

1015
00:50:26,320 --> 00:50:32,400
Speaker 1: a bad Raiders team? Like are we worried about the

1016
00:50:32,440 --> 00:50:37,160
Speaker 1: Eagles offense still now? With Lane Johnson being injured, Fred

1017
00:50:37,239 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 1: Johnson is playing in his place. I think that's kind

1018
00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,320
Speaker 1: of a big deal. We've seen how ineffective this offense

1019
00:50:43,320 --> 00:50:47,080
Speaker 1: can be without Lane Johnson, and it's more ineffective than

1020
00:50:47,120 --> 00:50:51,520
Speaker 1: when they're playing with Lane Johnson. So I'm having a

1021
00:50:51,560 --> 00:50:52,399
Speaker 1: hard time with this one.

1022
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:56,080
Speaker 3: Well, We'll say this as an Eagles fan from the top.

1023
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 3: The Eagles are well wearing their Kelly Greens, which they

1024
00:50:59,400 --> 00:51:02,080
Speaker 3: are five straight up, four and one against the spread

1025
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 3: twenty twenty three. But no, the the professionals are showing

1026
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:11,239
Speaker 3: their hands here. They just they've taken this number down

1027
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 3: from four and a half to three. Shocking to me.

1028
00:51:14,600 --> 00:51:18,560
Speaker 3: Shocking to me. The Eagles are such, so, so much

1029
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:22,200
Speaker 3: better than this Cowboys team in every aspect. The only

1030
00:51:22,680 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 3: the only spot you feel confident more obviously is the

1031
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:27,600
Speaker 3: Cowboys is the fact that they have a passing offense

1032
00:51:27,640 --> 00:51:30,719
Speaker 3: that seems like it travels and it plays pretty well.

1033
00:51:30,760 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 3: But this is going to be the hardest defense the

1034
00:51:33,760 --> 00:51:37,600
Speaker 3: Cowboys have faced obviously this year. So and minus three

1035
00:51:37,640 --> 00:51:39,839
Speaker 3: I'm tempted to give up the Eagles here, but I've

1036
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:42,719
Speaker 3: put my money behind the Cowboys at a plus number.

1037
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 3: It's just the Eagles offense is so battering now, it's

1038
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 3: so dysfunctional.

1039
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 2: It has to catch up to them.

1040
00:51:48,239 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 3: Like they can't keep getting away, keep getting away from

1041
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:53,800
Speaker 3: the need it coming to God or coming to Jesus

1042
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 3: moment here, they just they got to fire the oc

1043
00:51:57,400 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 3: like it's it's egregious at this point. And this, like

1044
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:04,800
Speaker 3: I talked about coming to the season, my biggest fear

1045
00:52:05,000 --> 00:52:07,719
Speaker 3: was Siany won his Super Bowl and now they're letting

1046
00:52:07,760 --> 00:52:10,360
Speaker 3: him pick his OC and he picked his friend Kevin

1047
00:52:10,400 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 3: Patalou who up to this point it's just been egregious.

1048
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:18,640
Speaker 3: The offense is just so bad. It's gotten a zero imagination.

1049
00:52:20,040 --> 00:52:21,719
Speaker 3: You only get defended so much. If that's such a

1050
00:52:21,800 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 3: tough schedule, it's like, well, here is an opportunity. They're

1051
00:52:24,000 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 3: playing against one of the worst defenses in football. Where

1052
00:52:26,120 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 3: I get they got guys back, I still think it

1053
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,759
Speaker 3: does should not make a difference. Like Gino was one

1054
00:52:31,840 --> 00:52:34,040
Speaker 3: that blew that game. They should have had a fourteen

1055
00:52:34,080 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 3: to three lead to start that game. He had them

1056
00:52:36,640 --> 00:52:39,399
Speaker 3: settling for field goals. I just we've seen the Eagles

1057
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:41,080
Speaker 3: team if they get moving, if they get to the

1058
00:52:41,120 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 3: red gene, they tend to score unless they turn the

1059
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:47,480
Speaker 3: ball over. So yeah, I cannot believe hard rockets hit

1060
00:52:47,560 --> 00:52:49,279
Speaker 3: to set three. It's really tempting to me to give

1061
00:52:49,280 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 3: out the Eagles here, but unfortunately I've already bet the Cowboys,

1062
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:54,000
Speaker 3: so I think it comes back up and it's a

1063
00:52:54,040 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 3: Cowboys number three and a half. But I minus three.

1064
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 3: If you haven't made a bet, I think that's a

1065
00:52:59,040 --> 00:53:02,520
Speaker 3: good Cowboy. Good Eagles number. It's just at this point

1066
00:53:02,520 --> 00:53:06,359
Speaker 3: you're betting the Cowboys to win, because that's I don't know,

1067
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:10,400
Speaker 3: I just can't see it. I cannot see this number

1068
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 3: staying at three for this Eagles team. If it's stays

1069
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 3: at three, I might need to load up on this

1070
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:17,680
Speaker 3: Cowboys side, because that's that to tell by the books

1071
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 3: if they hold at that number, because it's gonna be

1072
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:21,560
Speaker 3: Eagles will be one of the more public sides of

1073
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:22,600
Speaker 3: the week if they hold it three.

1074
00:53:23,040 --> 00:53:24,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna want to talk about this game again

1075
00:53:24,960 --> 00:53:27,920
Speaker 1: on Thursday, even if we don't think we're gonna have

1076
00:53:28,000 --> 00:53:29,919
Speaker 1: it in the final five. I think there's so much

1077
00:53:29,920 --> 00:53:33,879
Speaker 1: more to unpack with it, and we need another two

1078
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 1: days to see how the numbers.

1079
00:53:35,560 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 3: Cowboys on a short week too, It's just I can't

1080
00:53:38,320 --> 00:53:40,279
Speaker 3: believe the pros are loaded up on the Cowboys.

1081
00:53:40,280 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 2: Really interesting, given.

1082
00:53:41,920 --> 00:53:45,359
Speaker 3: A win or out situation and the closing moments got

1083
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 3: no team was ever betten. You gotta lot of them.

1084
00:53:48,560 --> 00:53:50,800
Speaker 2: I mean, you gotta love the Cowboys. They're the most

1085
00:53:50,800 --> 00:53:52,240
Speaker 2: exciting team in the NFL.

1086
00:53:53,280 --> 00:53:55,799
Speaker 1: Like you pull it out, it's astonishing to me and

1087
00:53:55,840 --> 00:53:58,920
Speaker 1: I just wonder, like I feel like they're discounting the

1088
00:53:59,040 --> 00:54:05,799
Speaker 1: Eagles off too much and inflating the Cowboys defense too much.

1089
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:07,680
Speaker 1: To me, this feels like a bet on the Cowboys

1090
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 1: defense and that it improved and as much as anything else,

1091
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:13,840
Speaker 1: And we don't know that yet. All we know is

1092
00:54:13,880 --> 00:54:17,600
Speaker 1: that they did well against a Raiders team in Gino Smith, who,

1093
00:54:17,760 --> 00:54:19,239
Speaker 1: despite the fact we're going to back them this week

1094
00:54:19,239 --> 00:54:23,800
Speaker 1: against the Browns, has generally been a terrible, terrible quarterback

1095
00:54:23,800 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 1: this year. So I can't. I can't get there with

1096
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,239
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, and I've sort of just been hoping this

1097
00:54:29,320 --> 00:54:32,400
Speaker 1: number keeps dropping so I can I can play the Eagles.

1098
00:54:32,400 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 1: So let's let's put a pin in that one. We're

1099
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:35,120
Speaker 1: definitely going to talk about it.

1100
00:54:35,040 --> 00:54:37,080
Speaker 3: And we're definitely playing a fire like we literally we've

1101
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 3: gone three and two two straight weeks, both times Eagles

1102
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:42,560
Speaker 3: have been our third win. So we've been rying them

1103
00:54:42,760 --> 00:54:45,120
Speaker 3: here for three straight weeks. But like we keep seeing,

1104
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 3: the public keeps undervaluing them, and it might be happening

1105
00:54:47,320 --> 00:54:48,719
Speaker 3: against you. Like you said, if it goes at two

1106
00:54:48,760 --> 00:54:51,000
Speaker 3: and a half, how could you avoid that number?

1107
00:54:51,320 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 1: But that's a telltale sign, right the public loves offense.

1108
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 2: That's true, It's wise time, just laying an egg.

1109
00:54:58,160 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: Every week they're laying an egg.

1110
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:00,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1111
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:02,279
Speaker 1: And meanwhile, look at the Cowboys just did back through

1112
00:55:02,520 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 1: four touchdown passes. He sent in records on Monday Night football.

1113
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:07,360
Speaker 1: That's when you won. Fade a team. Let's get to

1114
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,960
Speaker 1: the primetime spotlight. We got a Sunday night game. We

1115
00:55:10,040 --> 00:55:11,880
Speaker 1: got a Monday night game. We know people like to

1116
00:55:11,880 --> 00:55:16,120
Speaker 1: bet these standalone games. Tampa Bay is visiting Los Angeles Rams.

1117
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,760
Speaker 1: The Rams are six and a half point favorites. Another

1118
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 1: week where it's a relatively big number for Baker. In

1119
00:55:21,200 --> 00:55:27,560
Speaker 1: the Bucks news from yesterday, Bucky Irving may may play

1120
00:55:28,200 --> 00:55:30,520
Speaker 1: this week. Last week, Todd Bowles was pretty adamant he

1121
00:55:30,560 --> 00:55:33,640
Speaker 1: wasn't going to play. In week eleven. He was limited

1122
00:55:33,640 --> 00:55:37,960
Speaker 1: in practice three sessions. Last week yesterday at Todd Bowles

1123
00:55:38,080 --> 00:55:40,279
Speaker 1: was a little bit more optimistic that he could play.

1124
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:43,600
Speaker 1: I tend to think a big reason why this Bucks

1125
00:55:43,600 --> 00:55:47,760
Speaker 1: team has been struggling. You noted Baker scrambling, which I agree.

1126
00:55:48,120 --> 00:55:50,480
Speaker 1: I also think there's a dynamic with Bucky Irving that

1127
00:55:50,920 --> 00:55:53,120
Speaker 1: we're just not seeing from this offense that changes it

1128
00:55:53,160 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 1: for them. That started to become more and more clear

1129
00:55:56,280 --> 00:56:01,640
Speaker 1: the last few weeks when they've been struggling, Like the

1130
00:56:01,719 --> 00:56:03,920
Speaker 1: problem with the Bucks this past week wasn't their offense,

1131
00:56:03,960 --> 00:56:08,239
Speaker 1: it was their defense. And Josh Allen, so isn't this

1132
00:56:08,400 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 1: number two big for the Rams?

1133
00:56:11,520 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 2: Yeah?

1134
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:14,239
Speaker 3: And once again it's just I think I'm too close

1135
00:56:14,280 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 3: to where, like I think I should be on.

1136
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:17,439
Speaker 2: The Bucks like it was last week.

1137
00:56:17,480 --> 00:56:19,520
Speaker 3: But everything's telling me, in my instinct wise to be

1138
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,839
Speaker 3: on the Rams here. And the more I dove into

1139
00:56:22,840 --> 00:56:24,480
Speaker 3: the numbers, the more I kind of played out that

1140
00:56:24,520 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 3: way that this is technically a Rams spot and the

1141
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:29,839
Speaker 3: Rams actually played really well here.

1142
00:56:31,040 --> 00:56:34,080
Speaker 2: You know, McVeigh shockingly.

1143
00:56:33,560 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 3: After he plays divisional opponents gets his guys up for

1144
00:56:36,920 --> 00:56:39,799
Speaker 3: the following game, he's thirty four and seventeen straight up,

1145
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,719
Speaker 3: thirty and seventeen and four against the spread in this

1146
00:56:42,800 --> 00:56:45,520
Speaker 3: exact spot after you plays divisional game where Baker on

1147
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 3: the flip side, he's not great in these nighttime games,

1148
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:50,760
Speaker 3: which I always thought was true.

1149
00:56:50,960 --> 00:56:51,600
Speaker 2: And like when I.

1150
00:56:51,520 --> 00:56:52,920
Speaker 3: Look when I when I'm back and looked at it,

1151
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 3: it's like, Okay, how bad is Baker? Especially I want

1152
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:58,640
Speaker 3: to dive into him as a dog because that's what

1153
00:56:58,640 --> 00:56:59,080
Speaker 3: he is here.

1154
00:56:59,120 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 2: So as a field goal underdog at night.

1155
00:57:01,280 --> 00:57:05,200
Speaker 3: Baker one in eight straight up, oh and eight since

1156
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:09,839
Speaker 3: he's joined the Tampa this Bucks team. Him and Todd

1157
00:57:09,880 --> 00:57:12,799
Speaker 3: Bowles at night together, they're two and eight straight up

1158
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,280
Speaker 3: so Bowls obviously, this isn't great in that games either.

1159
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:21,840
Speaker 3: Pretty shocking though that you know, Baker's had thirteen games

1160
00:57:21,880 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 3: he's played at prime time at night, He's two and

1161
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 3: eleven straight up, four and nine against the spreading those games.

1162
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:29,520
Speaker 2: So whatever it is. Like Baker, we talk, we love

1163
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:30,240
Speaker 2: him as a dog.

1164
00:57:30,400 --> 00:57:32,000
Speaker 3: I was like, okay, their numbers at backup that he

1165
00:57:32,040 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 3: struggles with this game because I just can't believe how

1166
00:57:33,840 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 3: big the numbers. Once again, it took a miracle for

1167
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:38,880
Speaker 3: that Bills team to cover that number. Like Baker put

1168
00:57:38,920 --> 00:57:40,800
Speaker 3: up his best fight, he put up a ton of points.

1169
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 3: Now we both agree Rams defense is much better than

1170
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,600
Speaker 3: the Bills defenses. Right, they have not had anywhere near

1171
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,120
Speaker 3: as bad as injury luck as that Bill's defense has had.

1172
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,600
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's six and a half. I get why

1173
00:57:52,640 --> 00:57:54,120
Speaker 3: the pros are beat in this RAMS team. I get

1174
00:57:54,120 --> 00:57:56,680
Speaker 3: why this numbers move. So I'll go with the Prosser,

1175
00:57:56,720 --> 00:57:58,600
Speaker 3: I'll bet with the Rams, But I hate I hate

1176
00:57:58,600 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 3: going against Baker, but it just seems like he struggles

1177
00:58:01,120 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 3: in the spot.

1178
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 1: Hate it. Here's what's interesting. Here's what's interesting. The boxer

1179
00:58:07,040 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 1: playing Sunday night across the country. They could lose to

1180
00:58:10,680 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: the Rams. The next night across the country in northern California,

1181
00:58:16,520 --> 00:58:20,360
Speaker 1: Carolina Panthers are visiting the San Francisco forty nine ers.

1182
00:58:21,280 --> 00:58:32,960
Speaker 1: They're seven point underdogs. If the Bucks lose and the

1183
00:58:32,960 --> 00:58:35,840
Speaker 1: Panthers pull out another miracle, which tends to be their

1184
00:58:36,000 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 1: mo all of a sudden, the Panthers could be in

1185
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:44,200
Speaker 1: first place in the NFC South. And I cannot get

1186
00:58:44,480 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 1: to the Niners minus seven in this game because I

1187
00:58:49,680 --> 00:58:52,480
Speaker 1: think there are so many problems with their defensive backfield

1188
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 1: right now, and we're seeing it week after week after week.

1189
00:58:55,520 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: Brock Perty coming back is great, that rush offense. When

1190
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:04,760
Speaker 1: Perty is there, Kittle is there, McCaffrey has more opportunities.

1191
00:59:04,920 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: He does called the game differently, like he sees the

1192
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:10,640
Speaker 1: defense differently. He puts players in different position once they

1193
00:59:10,680 --> 00:59:13,640
Speaker 1: go into checks and audibles and things like that. But

1194
00:59:13,840 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 1: then I'm talking about then Mac Jones. I think the

1195
00:59:16,480 --> 00:59:20,080
Speaker 1: real difference here is Bryce Young scrambling stepping up in

1196
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:26,920
Speaker 1: the pocket being accurate against the depleted Niners secondary. I'm

1197
00:59:26,960 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 1: gonna have to be on the Panthers at plus seven.

1198
00:59:30,600 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 2: I am too.

1199
00:59:31,680 --> 00:59:33,680
Speaker 3: I just do not get this number. It's another game.

1200
00:59:33,680 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 3: I'm a want to dive into more. Because we talked

1201
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 3: about it Sunday night. I couldn't believe it. I could

1202
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:39,920
Speaker 3: not believe it again, the Panthers plus seven, I mean

1203
00:59:39,960 --> 00:59:41,600
Speaker 3: hard rock here has moved to the six and a half,

1204
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 3: which feels like it's the right line movement. You know,

1205
00:59:46,560 --> 00:59:49,640
Speaker 3: how how do the Panthers and Bryce you Young handle

1206
00:59:50,480 --> 00:59:52,560
Speaker 3: him throwing for four hundred and fifty yards and three

1207
00:59:52,600 --> 00:59:55,560
Speaker 3: touchdowns a week before, right, It's got to historically be

1208
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 3: a bad spot the following game.

1209
00:59:57,080 --> 01:00:00,240
Speaker 2: It's just you can't duplicate that, and.

1210
01:00:02,080 --> 01:00:04,880
Speaker 3: It's it's a weird spot for this team where, you know,

1211
01:00:05,120 --> 01:00:08,720
Speaker 3: since twenty eighteen, this Panthers team, when they're coming off

1212
01:00:08,760 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 3: a game where they scored thirty plus points, they're five

1213
01:00:11,760 --> 01:00:16,320
Speaker 3: and sixteen against the spread, I mean, just a disaster.

1214
01:00:17,160 --> 01:00:19,440
Speaker 3: They're two and thirteen straight up and against the spread

1215
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 3: in their last fifteen times in this exact spot. So

1216
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 3: we're basically betting like we did last week. We need

1217
01:00:26,360 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 3: Bryce s youungk to be the difference. We need him

1218
01:00:28,040 --> 01:00:30,200
Speaker 3: to be the superhero because the trends are just terrible

1219
01:00:30,240 --> 01:00:30,960
Speaker 3: for this Panthers team.

1220
01:00:31,000 --> 01:00:33,440
Speaker 1: They just we always need that their defense is terrible.

1221
01:00:33,440 --> 01:00:35,960
Speaker 1: They're not gonna be terrible. Christian McCaffrey could run for

1222
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:37,200
Speaker 1: a thousand yards in this game.

1223
01:00:38,760 --> 01:00:39,240
Speaker 2: He could.

1224
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 3: And what I keep going back to is just fading

1225
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:45,880
Speaker 3: this foreigners team. There's tons of trends we've been going

1226
01:00:45,880 --> 01:00:48,000
Speaker 3: on this year about fade them after their wins and

1227
01:00:48,440 --> 01:00:50,360
Speaker 3: just how bad they've been at home as well. Like this,

1228
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:53,240
Speaker 3: you know this year we've talked about a little bit,

1229
01:00:53,280 --> 01:00:55,680
Speaker 3: but you can go back to twenty twenty three. They're

1230
01:00:55,720 --> 01:00:59,480
Speaker 3: eight and fifteen at home against the spread, eight and fifteen,

1231
01:00:59,520 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 3: Like they've just struggled and been overvalued by the market consistently.

1232
01:01:02,440 --> 01:01:05,800
Speaker 3: So it's it's a not much a takeaway from them,

1233
01:01:05,840 --> 01:01:09,040
Speaker 3: the fact that they keep getting overvalued. Shanahan is a

1234
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:11,880
Speaker 3: six point favorite. He usually wins those games. I think

1235
01:01:11,880 --> 01:01:13,960
Speaker 3: he's nine and four straight up in this exact spot.

1236
01:01:14,040 --> 01:01:17,440
Speaker 3: Is a big favorite. But against the spread since twenty

1237
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,640
Speaker 3: twenty three, I think it's since Christmas or right before it,

1238
01:01:20,720 --> 01:01:24,440
Speaker 3: he's three and nine against the spread, including zero to

1239
01:01:24,480 --> 01:01:27,160
Speaker 3: three in the spot where they are coming home as

1240
01:01:27,200 --> 01:01:31,000
Speaker 3: a favorite after a win. So we keep talking about

1241
01:01:31,040 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 3: that stat since Christmas. Basically, they win, they lose, they win,

1242
01:01:34,520 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 3: they lose. It's one to fifteen now against the spread

1243
01:01:36,880 --> 01:01:39,320
Speaker 3: after a straight up win and a cover on the road.

1244
01:01:39,400 --> 01:01:43,200
Speaker 3: So I don't know, Chad, it feels like it's too easy.

1245
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:45,360
Speaker 3: The public and the pros are with us on this one.

1246
01:01:45,560 --> 01:01:47,520
Speaker 3: All the money, all of it is pointing in right

1247
01:01:47,520 --> 01:01:49,720
Speaker 3: now at almost every book on this Panthers team. So

1248
01:01:50,200 --> 01:01:52,360
Speaker 3: I am happy to see the number moved. If it didn't, Budge,

1249
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:54,160
Speaker 3: I would have told us we got to avoid it.

1250
01:01:54,160 --> 01:01:55,760
Speaker 3: But the fact that it's moved has given me some

1251
01:01:55,760 --> 01:01:58,160
Speaker 3: faith that we're on the right side. I just I

1252
01:01:58,160 --> 01:02:00,200
Speaker 3: think the books aren't value brace Shung and how well

1253
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:02,720
Speaker 3: he's played, and they keep under undervaluing him this year.

1254
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:05,280
Speaker 3: So we've been on the side with Bryce Freeze laid eggs.

1255
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 3: We've been burned by him a couple of times this year.

1256
01:02:07,000 --> 01:02:10,440
Speaker 3: But like you just said, defensively, this feels like.

1257
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:11,560
Speaker 2: A great match with the Panthers.

1258
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:12,840
Speaker 3: I don't know if they can stop the run, and

1259
01:02:12,880 --> 01:02:15,480
Speaker 3: they sure us all can't stop the past. So if

1260
01:02:15,480 --> 01:02:17,120
Speaker 3: bray Sean brings his a game chat, I think we

1261
01:02:17,200 --> 01:02:19,000
Speaker 3: got a really great number here with Panthers.

1262
01:02:19,200 --> 01:02:21,320
Speaker 1: I agree, I agree, it's going to be interesting. We

1263
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:24,480
Speaker 1: got I think we got about eight or nine games

1264
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:28,960
Speaker 1: that we're we're feeling pretty good about or at least

1265
01:02:29,280 --> 01:02:35,760
Speaker 1: like somewhat from from good to very very very good.

1266
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 1: Cincinnati good, Seattle very good, Detroit very good, Pittsburgh good,

1267
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:54,680
Speaker 1: Arizona most excellent. Las Vegas mooe, mooe, caliente. Uh, Philadelphia,

1268
01:02:55,480 --> 01:03:01,800
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't know, rams Eh, Carolina good.

1269
01:03:01,800 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 1: So we got some work to do between now and

1270
01:03:04,240 --> 01:03:07,120
Speaker 1: Thursday to get a little more intel. We'll hear more

1271
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 1: about practices, injuries, things like that. This has been sharp

1272
01:03:12,360 --> 01:03:14,680
Speaker 1: or Square part of the Value and Podcast Network. We

1273
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 1: will be back on Thursday with the games we are

1274
01:03:17,200 --> 01:03:19,880
Speaker 1: zeroing in on, plus our head to head battle brass

1275
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:24,520
Speaker 1: Balls so much more. Watcher listen on YouTube at Sharper Square.

1276
01:03:24,640 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 1: Like the video while you're watching, Subscribe to the channel,

1277
01:03:27,440 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 1: Download some Spotify Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,

1278
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:32,439
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars, say whatever you want.

1279
01:03:32,480 --> 01:03:35,040
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. Until next time.

1280
01:03:35,680 --> 01:03:38,840
Speaker 2: I Love you right now, it's time to take a

1281
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:39,560
Speaker 2: step forward.

1282
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:42,400
Speaker 1: We gotta put something together, back to back. Let's go