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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What's up, everybody?

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Speaker 1: Jason McIntyre, Straight Fire, Friday, October sixteen, No Thursday Night Football.

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Speaker 1: Last night made life kind of good in the McIntyre household.

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Speaker 1: Went out to dinner with the family and uh, I

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Speaker 1: wasn't glued to football and taking notes because I'm a

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Speaker 1: nerd who does things like that before we get to

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Speaker 1: the big news of the day, and there's a lot

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Speaker 1: of it. A reminder later in the podcast, we will

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Speaker 1: have the best bets for NFL this weekend. I've been

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Speaker 1: doing three best bets, actually did four this week and

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Speaker 1: you're gonna hate him. Also, later in the podcast, we

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Speaker 1: will have a great interview with Sam monson Interesting Guy.

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Speaker 1: This dude got noticed on a message board for his

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Speaker 1: NFL takes and analysis and um, I think you're gonna

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Speaker 1: love it. He's also got an act scent. I think

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Speaker 1: you'll like that as well. And also big shout out

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Speaker 1: to my brother, baby bro Jeffrey McIntyre birthday this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Happy birthday, big guy. I know he's a daily listener

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Speaker 1: to the podcast and I try to help him. Help

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Speaker 1: him one his fantasy league last year and uh, he

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Speaker 1: was rolling this year, but the injuries have really heard

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Speaker 1: his team so trying to help him bounce back. He

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Speaker 1: is on the other side of the country, but who knows.

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Speaker 1: Maybe he'll be moving out here to l A soon enough,

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Speaker 1: if he can convince his wife. All right, let's get

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Speaker 1: to the big sports news. I don't know where to start.

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Speaker 1: I mean, we got a big move in the NFL

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Speaker 1: late Thursday. It actually broke while I was taping the

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Speaker 1: interview with Sam monson Levian Bell signs with the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Oh boy, gosh, how bad are the Jets gonna regret

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Speaker 1: letting him go? Actually, you know, I don't know how

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Speaker 1: bad they're gonna regret it, because he's gonna look awesome

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Speaker 1: and the Jets are gonna be like, what if we

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Speaker 1: have Adam Gaze for He's a disaster. Yes, obviously they're

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Speaker 1: gonna regret it. What a train wreck the Jets are.

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Speaker 1: But this is about Levian Bell and Chiefs. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is a twenty eight year old running back who

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Speaker 1: what three years ago, was basically a top three running

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Speaker 1: back in the league, total dual threat. He was essentially

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Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey. Before McCaffrey got to the league. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's that patient runner who kind of dances at the

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Speaker 1: line of scrimmage, great vision, and he's gonna go in

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Speaker 1: and guess what, there's really no pressure on him. They've

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Speaker 1: got Edwards Hilaire as the starting running back, the rookie

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Speaker 1: out of LSU. He had a good opener, but his

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Speaker 1: kind of UH struggled to get loose since. And it's

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Speaker 1: basically just another weapon in the past game for Pat Mahomes.

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Speaker 1: I mean, think about it. You've got Tyreek Hill, Kole Hardman,

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Speaker 1: Sammy Watkins just went down with an injury. He'll be back,

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Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey. If he's not the best tight end of

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Speaker 1: the league, he's certainly top three. And now you're gonna

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Speaker 1: add Levy on Bell. I mean, they've just got UH

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Speaker 1: an embarrassment of riches at the skill positions. And I

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Speaker 1: don't think this is an overreaction to the Raiders loss.

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Speaker 1: I think this is, Hey, we can buy low on

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Speaker 1: an elite running back. He doesn't have a Super Bowl ring.

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Speaker 1: We just won the Super Bowl. We want to get

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Speaker 1: back there. Let's get Levan Bell. Love the move, smart

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Speaker 1: move for the Chiefs, and I came close to taking

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Speaker 1: them in the best bet this weekend, but I did not.

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Speaker 1: I how can you not love Levian Bell to the Chiefs?

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Speaker 1: All Right? The next big piece of news came in

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Speaker 1: the NBA, and UM, actually two pieces of NBA news.

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Speaker 1: I'll start with one that I think it's a little

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Speaker 1: more interesting. Is Darryl Morey resigning. That's key. He was

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Speaker 1: not fired by Timan for Tata, for Tata, for Tita, whatever,

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Speaker 1: however you say the owner of the Rockets. Um, Darryl

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Speaker 1: Morey resigned, and I guess he worked out a deal

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Speaker 1: where he's not returning as the GM end of an

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Speaker 1: era for Moury in Houston. I know, I know, you're

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Speaker 1: snickering an arrow which includes zero trips to the finals.

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Speaker 1: A lot a lot of UM bandwidth on the internet.

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Speaker 1: The stat guys loved Daryl Morey, and I don't care

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Speaker 1: how much you dislike him or the Rockets. It is

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Speaker 1: undeniable how much he has changed the league. He has

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Speaker 1: been a significant change agent over the last thirteen years,

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Speaker 1: pushing the three ball more than anybody has before. And

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Speaker 1: this moved to small ball has been fascinating to watch.

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Speaker 1: I know, I know other teams have ushered in the three.

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Speaker 1: The Warriors famously went heavy with the threes. The Rockets

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Speaker 1: took it to another level. The Warriors went smart with

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Speaker 1: small ball, Draymond Green and center. The Rockets said, we're

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Speaker 1: not going to have a center, We're just gonna go

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Speaker 1: small ball exclusively. And again, like it helps when one

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Speaker 1: team has two of the greatest shooters in NBA history

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Speaker 1: and Curry and Clay and then you had Kevin Durant.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's the Rockets had nothing of the sort.

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Speaker 1: It never totally fit for the Rockets. They got closed twice.

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Speaker 1: And I know I talked about this a lot um

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Speaker 1: Game seven the first year Durant went to the Warriors,

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Speaker 1: so I think that would be twenties seven. It was

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Speaker 1: like May and the Rockets kind of had that series, guys.

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Speaker 1: I mean, dude, they were on the road, Warriors were

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Speaker 1: on the ropes. Halftime of Game seven, Rockets had a

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Speaker 1: double digit lead. And I listen, I had a lot

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Speaker 1: of money riding on the Warriors that year to win

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Speaker 1: the title. Um. I had a lot of money on

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Speaker 1: the Warriors in that series. And I had a lot

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Speaker 1: of credibility on the line because I said they would

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Speaker 1: smoke the Rockets. Um. And I'll never forget like, oh

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Speaker 1: Man down ten it how I was literally nervous. And

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Speaker 1: the Warriors aren't even like one of the teams I've

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Speaker 1: loved forever. I'm just a Curry guy. And that third

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Speaker 1: quarter that they put on the Rockets is one of

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Speaker 1: my favorite quarters in the last decade in the NBA.

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Speaker 1: It was incredible. Go watch it on YouTube. A flurry

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Speaker 1: of threes and the Rockets and their three point strategy.

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Speaker 1: I mean they missed straight between the bridging the third

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Speaker 1: and fourth on foreseen stuff and it was tough. And

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Speaker 1: then the next year, um or no, I guess it was,

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Speaker 1: was it two years later or the net well, whatever

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Speaker 1: it was, Kevin Durant was unavailable and he was injured,

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Speaker 1: and it was like, oh my gosh, the Warriors are

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Speaker 1: in trouble. They have to go to Houston for Game six,

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Speaker 1: and it was like, oh boy, Golden stated, are they

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Speaker 1: gonna be able to pull this off? And it's just

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Speaker 1: unfathomable how bad the Rockets were in Game six. I

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Speaker 1: think that was the end of the James Harden Chris

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Speaker 1: Paul union. Steph Curry just broke them literally in the

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Speaker 1: second half. Curry was unbelievable and it just ruined it.

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Speaker 1: And those were like the two chances that they had

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Speaker 1: very close to taking down Golden State. That was the

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Speaker 1: closest they got to the finals. And you know, I

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Speaker 1: don't know what's next for Moory. I mean his services

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Speaker 1: are going to be in demand. I mean six six

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Speaker 1: the success he had is deniable. Um, but he didn't

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Speaker 1: get to the finals, and you're gonna have guys taking

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Speaker 1: shots at him in the media. I will not be

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Speaker 1: one of them. Uh. My one Darryl Moury story. When

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Speaker 1: I was living outside Philly, I went to a sixers

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Speaker 1: rocket scheme and I was doing a piece on Maury's

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Speaker 1: rockets and we had talked via text message. Yeah, he

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Speaker 1: gave me crumbs and then he was all set up.

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Speaker 1: Yeah we'll talk after the game. I tried to get

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Speaker 1: ahold of him and he wouldn't meet me. Kind of

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Speaker 1: stiff me, but no, no harm. Hey, it happens. I

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Speaker 1: was I was a blogger, uh before I had any

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Speaker 1: f s, one't credibility or Fox Sports Radio, and I

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Speaker 1: was just honored that he returned my text messages. But

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Speaker 1: Maria had a great run. The other big news in

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Speaker 1: the NBA Tyler signing on to be the next Clippers coach.

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Speaker 1: And I don't know, folks, Tyler is a Lebron guy

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Speaker 1: and the only move here for the Clippers, says, hey,

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Speaker 1: Lebron looks like a juggernaut. Lebron on an idea, the

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Speaker 1: best tannem in the league. How do we beat them?

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Speaker 1: We get Lebron's guy who may have an answer on

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Speaker 1: how to beat him. I mean, Tyler, one of the

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Speaker 1: luckiest coaches in NBA history, gets to coach Lebron as

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Speaker 1: his first job and his second job. Kawhi Leonard like,

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Speaker 1: does it get much better than that? Tyler? You know,

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Speaker 1: he was a solid role player in the NBA, coming

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Speaker 1: off the bench, famous with the Lakers. Now he's going

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Speaker 1: to the dark side and coaching the Clippers. I gotta

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Speaker 1: be honest, I don't know that Tyler is gonna be

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Speaker 1: the answer to put them over the top. They've got

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Speaker 1: some chemistry problems that needs sorting out. You know who

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Speaker 1: the alpha? Now he is in that huddle. Who's gonna

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Speaker 1: yell at the players? Tyler? And I don't know how

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Speaker 1: Paul George, assuming he's still with the team, is going

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Speaker 1: to take that. Um Yo, Tyler, what did you accomplish well?

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Speaker 1: You know, he'll come back with well, I came back

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Speaker 1: from being down three one against the Warriors that we want.

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Speaker 1: Oh you did that. That wasn't Kyrie and Lebron, that

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Speaker 1: was you, Okay? And I just I wonder if the

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Speaker 1: egos in that Clippers locker room were they humbled enough

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Speaker 1: by what happened against Denver or are they still ego

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Speaker 1: driven and gonna be like, yo, Tyler, Okay, you're a

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Speaker 1: Lebron guy. Whatever. So Clippers still have a lot to

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Speaker 1: get sorted out. Good luck to Tyler. It's a it's

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Speaker 1: a tall order, um, but he he got the head job.

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Speaker 1: So that wraps up what was an eventful Thursday in sports.

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Speaker 1: And now coming up next a great interview with Sam

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Speaker 1: Monson from Pro Football Focus. Jason likes to think he

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Speaker 1: knows everything when it comes to sports. I know what

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Speaker 1: sports dans want, but for everything he doesn't. He knows

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Speaker 1: a guy who does. Let's just say I know a

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Speaker 1: guy who knows a guy. He knows another guy. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's welcome into straight fire. Now, a guy who's super interesting,

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Speaker 1: you know, covering the NFL. A lot of these people

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Speaker 1: grew up, went to college covered the NFL. Small newspapers

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Speaker 1: and big papers. Not this guy, Sam monson Pro Football Focus. Sam,

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Speaker 1: how are you man? I'm doing good? How about you?

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Speaker 1: I'm a excellent I'm very excited for Week six. It

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Speaker 1: feels like a one of the toughest weeks so far

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Speaker 1: the season to pick games. But before we get to

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Speaker 1: week six, I gotta ask, Um, I was reading up

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Speaker 1: on your backstory and I listen, there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: young people who listen to this podcast to want to

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Speaker 1: break into media, and Sam, it sounds like basically you

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Speaker 1: got discovered on a message board in while you were

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Speaker 1: living in Ireland. Is that true? Yeah? So I don't

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Speaker 1: have the conventional way through. I wouldn't have recommend the

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Speaker 1: right that I chose as your as your way into

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Speaker 1: the profession. Um. Really, I just got lucky. You know.

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Speaker 1: Neil Hornsby set up Pro Football Focus. He kind of

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Speaker 1: created it from scratch. And when he first set this

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Speaker 1: thing up, he had the system, he had the back end,

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Speaker 1: the I t the website, and quickly he needed guys

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Speaker 1: to come on and help him actually do the games.

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Speaker 1: You know, great analyze put in all the data. Um.

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Speaker 1: So he turned to a bunch of guys. So he

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Speaker 1: knew from the NFL's the UK message board, you know

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Speaker 1: guys that he thought I had a pretty good knowledge

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Speaker 1: of football, and you know, knew had the time to

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Speaker 1: to help him do this thing. So me, Bens Stockwell,

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Speaker 1: Kalid Outside the sort of the first guys in PFF

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Speaker 1: all came on that way. So let's like, how did

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Speaker 1: someone notice you on a message board? Where are you?

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Speaker 1: You're just popping on there what during the games and

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Speaker 1: chiming in or you doing it afterward with analysis? How

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Speaker 1: how did the message board work? Yeah, I mean I

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Speaker 1: think it was that kind of period of the Internet

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Speaker 1: right where message boards were were sort of a thing

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Speaker 1: for a few years and people would just talk about football,

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Speaker 1: about about the NFL generally, and you know, whatever your

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Speaker 1: thoughts were on any particular topic. Now, I guess that

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Speaker 1: all happens on Twitter, right, But back in the day

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Speaker 1: it used to be message boards and you would just

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Speaker 1: sort of give your thoughts on whatever the topic was

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Speaker 1: at the time. And I guess after a while, you know,

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Speaker 1: you get to know which guys you think, no what

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Speaker 1: they're talking about, which guys are you know, don't And

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Speaker 1: I guess there was just a few people that you know,

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Speaker 1: Neil had sort of pegged as people that knew enough

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Speaker 1: football to be able to get involved with something like this.

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Speaker 1: And so were you getting paid by Neil when you

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Speaker 1: were writing on the message board or that. That didn't

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Speaker 1: come till afterwards. So when he hired us on to

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Speaker 1: do games, pff it's at the start was basically funded

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Speaker 1: out of his pocket. He was a business consultant by trade,

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Speaker 1: and he was doing this whole thing as a hobby,

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Speaker 1: and he got a bunch of us on board and

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Speaker 1: was basically paying us by the game. So you know,

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Speaker 1: we would do a game of of Dave Entry and

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Speaker 1: of braiding and and that kind of thing, and we

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Speaker 1: would get whatever it was, it was paid, you know,

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Speaker 1: by the game, and then we just kind of crying

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Speaker 1: through until eventually we started making some money off NFL

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Speaker 1: teams and consumers when we were selling a product. That's

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Speaker 1: pretty awesome. Now, I do have to say you were

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Speaker 1: coaching rugby at the time, as Oh, yeah, I had

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Speaker 1: a part time gig coaching kids rugby at a Willow

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Speaker 1: Park schools, which uh, sort of uh, whatever the the

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Speaker 1: what's the what's the middle school? Middle school open? Here

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Speaker 1: would be it, and there that sort of pipeline to

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Speaker 1: one of the most successful um like Irish rugby schools.

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Speaker 1: So you were a big rugby player in your youth

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Speaker 1: as well. Not a big rugby player, but yeah, rugby

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Speaker 1: would have been my sports um. And then I kind

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Speaker 1: of got into coaching just part time when I was

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Speaker 1: studying journalism in Dublin. So let me ask you about

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Speaker 1: the grading, because I'm sure you guys get questions about

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Speaker 1: this all the time. Let's take, for instance, and and

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Speaker 1: only because we're gonna talk about this game later, the

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Speaker 1: brown Steelers game. The Browns have a guard named Wyatt Teller, who,

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Speaker 1: according to Pro Football Focus, is the highest graded guard

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Speaker 1: in the league this year. And I would guess, Sam,

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Speaker 1: a lot of you know, let's say ten million people

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Speaker 1: are watching the Browns game, I would say eight million

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Speaker 1: people don't know who Wyatt Teller. Is that a safe assumption,

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Speaker 1: like he's a guard on the Browns. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: just a guess, but he's graded out number one. If

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Speaker 1: you asked a lot of casual fans who's the best

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Speaker 1: guard in the NFL, they might say the kid on Indianapolis,

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Speaker 1: Quintin Nelson. He's killing people. You guys only have Nelson

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Speaker 1: graded eight. Can you just talk us through how you

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Speaker 1: get to tell her being the top graded guard in

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Speaker 1: And it's important, you know, it's only five games into

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Speaker 1: the season. So if you'd asked us five games ago

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Speaker 1: who the best guard in the NFL was, Wyatt Tyler

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Speaker 1: wouldn't have been on the list, you know what I mean,

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Speaker 1: He's kind of come out of nowhere and we really

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Speaker 1: hadn't seen this kind of play from him in the past.

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Speaker 1: I mean, his grade last season was average. Um, he's

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Speaker 1: grade the year before that in Buffalo was average. This

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Speaker 1: year though he's been a different guy. I mean, the

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Speaker 1: grading is the offensive line is a pretty good place

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Speaker 1: to start because most of the blocks are kind of adversarial,

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Speaker 1: right it's one on one. It's a guard versus a

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Speaker 1: block defense defender, whether it's a defensive lineman or whether

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Speaker 1: it's a linebacker. At the second level, it's essentially you know,

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Speaker 1: did you win the block that you were trying to execute,

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Speaker 1: and if you did, how much did you win it by?

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Speaker 1: Was it a dominant handcake where you just buried the

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Speaker 1: guy into the turf or did you just get him

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Speaker 1: sealed enough so that there's a gap, you know inside

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Speaker 1: you for the running back to make it through. And

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Speaker 1: then obviously past protection is is even easier. It's just

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Speaker 1: did you allow pressure and if so, how decisive was it.

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Speaker 1: Was it a really bad loss that happened in two

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Speaker 1: seconds or did you cling on and cling on for

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Speaker 1: four or five seconds and then eventually pressure came right

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Speaker 1: at the end. So just in those simple terms, Tellers

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Speaker 1: allowed three hurries in five games, Like that's a pretty

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Speaker 1: crazy number for any kind of pass blocker. So his

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Speaker 1: pass blocking has been fantastic. And then the run game

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Speaker 1: that's you know, night and day compared with what he's

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Speaker 1: done before. But if you throw on like the Dallas

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Speaker 1: game and just watch what he and Jack Conklin a

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Speaker 1: right tackle, what those guys were doing to the Dalla

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Speaker 1: defensive lineman. They were just burying those guys and just

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Speaker 1: bulldozing them off the line of scrimmage with combination blocks

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Speaker 1: and you know, just absolutely laying waste to what the

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Speaker 1: Cowboys had up front. Now that's fascinating because it sounds like,

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Speaker 1: I mean, listen, there's probably a lot of subjectivity into

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Speaker 1: did you hold the block long enough? What is a

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Speaker 1: great block versus a good block? Um, Now he hasn't

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Speaker 1: really faced any one of the caliber that he's going

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Speaker 1: to face this week. Right, the Steelers have one of

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Speaker 1: the best defensive lines in the league, if not number

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Speaker 1: one inside outside there loaded do you think, given uh

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Speaker 1: Teller's history, even if he assuming he plays um, this

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Speaker 1: will be a huge step up in class for not

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Speaker 1: only him, but I think the entire Brown's offensive line. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean this is as stiff attest against. The Steelers

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Speaker 1: have the highest pressure rate of any defense in the

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Speaker 1: NFL through five weeks. They've got the highest um blitz

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Speaker 1: percentage as well, Like they're coming after teams and they're

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Speaker 1: generating pressure doing it. I think, you know, Tellers faced

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Speaker 1: some decent competitions so far this season. The Ravens obviously

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Speaker 1: was Week one, but he faced that Washington defensive front.

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Speaker 1: The Colts have some good players as well. He's not

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Speaker 1: had an easy run of it. But you're right, the

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Speaker 1: Steelers is like a different test altogether, not just for him,

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Speaker 1: but for this Brown's offense. And I think it's the

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Speaker 1: stiffest test that the offense is based since that Week

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Speaker 1: one game against Baltimore where they just couldn't function. Um,

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be interesting. To see. Baker Mayfield for the

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Speaker 1: last few weeks has been much better at being staying

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Speaker 1: in the pocket, looking fairly comfortable when he does. But

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Speaker 1: the Steelers, with all that pressure, with all the blitz

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Speaker 1: that they send to people, that's gonna kind of, you know,

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Speaker 1: encourage Baker Mayfield to lean back into the negatives that

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Speaker 1: he was um doing way before, when he was doing

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Speaker 1: in the Baltimore game and you know, running out of

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Speaker 1: pockets and trying to make plays outside of structure and

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Speaker 1: just sort of abandoning the correct way of playing instruct

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Speaker 1: here and trying to do too much by himself. This

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Speaker 1: will be the biggest test since that game of whether

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Speaker 1: he's actually adjusted his game or if he just had

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Speaker 1: the opposition that would enable him to play it that way. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I feel like Josh Allen and the Bills really he

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Speaker 1: he was dominant. I mean, Josh Allen was incredible for

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Speaker 1: the first four weeks and then did we see the

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Speaker 1: real Josh Allen on Tuesday night? You know, like it's

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Speaker 1: one of those things like, uh, I don't know if

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Speaker 1: it was. He was awful in that game. I don't

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Speaker 1: think he was terrible, but he just wasn't great, Like

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Speaker 1: he had been for the first four games. So how

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Speaker 1: much stock can you put into, you know, five weeks

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Speaker 1: of results. I mean, whyatt Teller the number one guard

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Speaker 1: in the league when when you're analyzing the games, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean you can't five games, four games. It's it's

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Speaker 1: incredibly small sample size. And every single year we see

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Speaker 1: guys that go on a four or five game stretch

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Speaker 1: of play that is completely outside of anything we've seen

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Speaker 1: from them before. Whether it's positive you know, the good end,

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Speaker 1: or whether it's in the bad end. We just see

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Speaker 1: guys have a terrible four or five game stretch of play,

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Speaker 1: and you have to see if it's going to sustain itself.

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Speaker 1: And it's always difficult when you have guys at either

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Speaker 1: end of their career because you start looking for patterns. Right,

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Speaker 1: if it's an old guy, you start looking for the

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Speaker 1: time where they're done. Right, this is the sign. It's

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Speaker 1: those four games now, he's he's forty years old, his

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Speaker 1: time is over. He's cooked. Um, But it might not be.

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Speaker 1: It might just be a bad run of games and

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Speaker 1: he bounces back and you see, uh, the real guy again.

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Speaker 1: And similarly, at the start of a guy's career, you're

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Speaker 1: looking for a sign that the light bulb has gone off,

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Speaker 1: that the the that they finally got it, that the

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Speaker 1: game has slowed down for them, and that they've developed

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Speaker 1: into the player they're going to be. And it might

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Speaker 1: be that four game stretch where they look great. On

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Speaker 1: the other hand, it might just be that those were

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Speaker 1: four games. Sam Donald, I think, is a great example of,

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Speaker 1: you know, a four or five games stretch, I think

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Speaker 1: in every season of his career dating back to college,

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Speaker 1: where he looks like the best quarterback in the nation

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Speaker 1: and then you know, one of the best in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and it just it doesn't last. And it hasn't lasted

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Speaker 1: for him every single season. He's obviously got bigger problems

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Speaker 1: than just his own play because the situation around him

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Speaker 1: is so bad. But the point is, if you make

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Speaker 1: the sample size small enough, you can always find that

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Speaker 1: the stretch of play that makes that guy look different

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Speaker 1: to that all the other games. How much does do

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Speaker 1: you think it not the hammer teller? How much do

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Speaker 1: you think Stefanski's uh, you know, addition to the Cleveland

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Speaker 1: Browns coaching staff running the show like he worked magic

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Speaker 1: in Minnesota. If memory serves, the Vikings offensive line trended

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Speaker 1: upward the last two years. UM. But it feels like

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Speaker 1: Stefanski probably has had an impact on you know, the

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Speaker 1: offensive line and that offense. Is that safe to say, Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: huge impact. I mean, this is a it gets talked

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Speaker 1: about as a quarterback friendly system, but I think it's

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Speaker 1: a system that's friendly to a bunch of different positions.

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Speaker 1: An offensive line is definitely one of them. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you look, Kyle Shanahan has always had this. He

400
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Speaker 1: tends to get these career your years out of quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: and that's the thing that gets the attention. But he

402
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Speaker 1: also gets like career years out of offensive tackles because

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Speaker 1: they don't have to block for as many you know,

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Speaker 1: straight drop back seven step drop vertical sets. They get

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Speaker 1: a ton of play action, they get a ton of

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Speaker 1: sort of run fake motion when they're pass blocking, so

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Speaker 1: they don't have to do the same thing that some

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Speaker 1: of these other offensive tackles do. It just makes their

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Speaker 1: life easier. Um. And the same thing is true for

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Speaker 1: the rest of the offensive line as well. There's so

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Speaker 1: many plays that aren't sort of true passets. They're various

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Speaker 1: variations of you know, run fakes or or true r

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Speaker 1: P O s where you're legitimately run blocking, you're not

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Speaker 1: actually pass blocking, so massively helps those guys and lets

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Speaker 1: them kind of tee off on defenses that are still

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Speaker 1: trying to figure out what the play is, still trying

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Speaker 1: to diagnose if it's runner of pots. And Yeah, I

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Speaker 1: think this is a really good system. That's defense. He's

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Speaker 1: brought with him with a proven track record throughout the league,

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Speaker 1: with various different iterations and quirks from the specific coach,

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Speaker 1: and it's definitely worked wonders. But it's also um important

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Speaker 1: I think to point out the competition, you know, and

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Speaker 1: say that outside of that Baltimore game, they really haven't

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Speaker 1: faced another you know, the Cults have a good defense,

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Speaker 1: but it's much more vanilla than the Baltimore and the

426
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh defense. I think this is gonna be the first

427
00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 1: big test that they face since that Week one game. Yeah,

428
00:22:27,560 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 1: all right, let's move to uh, probably the game of

429
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 1: the week, um Packers Bucks. Right, So I'm looking at

430
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 1: the Green Bay Packers. The d v o A numbers

431
00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,160
Speaker 1: for them from Football Outsiders, they're awful defense, bottom five

432
00:22:38,200 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 1: in the league. I'm looking at the Pro Football Focus numbers.

433
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 1: It's a lot of yellow and orange other than Jayra Alexander,

434
00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 1: who's the number one grade cornerback according to PFF. How

435
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:52,000
Speaker 1: do you handicap this game from xs and os? And

436
00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,959
Speaker 1: then what you see with the line if you if

437
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 1: you pay attention to the line from Vegas. I mean,

438
00:22:57,520 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 1: I think the big thing is who for Tampa Bay

439
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: is gonna be healthy. We were talking all on season about,

440
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,240
Speaker 1: you know, Tom Brady, how much has he done? And

441
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:06,960
Speaker 1: how much was the fact that he just didn't have

442
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: any receivers in your England um and the fact that

443
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 1: once none of those guys could get open and teams

444
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 1: started taking away to Julian Edelman, he just had nowhere

445
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: to go with the ball, and that made him look worse.

446
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 1: It made the offensive line look worse because he had

447
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:22,639
Speaker 1: to hold onto the ball longer. It just made everything worse.

448
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:24,919
Speaker 1: And we were saying all through the off season, well,

449
00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: the one thing you don't have to worry about is

450
00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 1: a lack of receivers in Tampa Bay because you've got

451
00:23:29,320 --> 00:23:33,040
Speaker 1: Mike Evans, You've got Chris Godwin, you've got Scotty Miller

452
00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:35,520
Speaker 1: in the slot, you've got all those tight ends. You've

453
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: got players you know running back side, of the backfield.

454
00:23:38,760 --> 00:23:41,360
Speaker 1: They're all hurt. This see somehow back in the same

455
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 1: position of having nobody that's throw too, because everybody's banged up,

456
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 1: and even guys like Mike Evans are going out there

457
00:23:47,960 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 1: and playing. But he's clearly physically hampered. He's not. He's

458
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 1: doing what he can. So a big part of this is,

459
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 1: you know what percentage of Brady's receivers are actually gonna

460
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,160
Speaker 1: be there and playing at a level that helped him

461
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,760
Speaker 1: out because I think he's definitely reached the point of

462
00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 1: his career where you know, he isn't a transcendent quarterback anymore.

463
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: He's not gonna raise the ability of everyone else around him.

464
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,719
Speaker 1: He actually needs some receivers to get open and give

465
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 1: him somewhere to go with the ball. But then now

466
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,320
Speaker 1: he's facing off against an Aaron Rodgers who was back

467
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,399
Speaker 1: playing at that tleven M v P. Aaron Rodgers level

468
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: that we didn't necessarily think was still there. That guy

469
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,440
Speaker 1: is back, and that is a transcendent quarterback talent where

470
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter if he doesn't have Davante Adams. He

471
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: is out there firing the ball where it needs to go,

472
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 1: hitting guys like you know, Alan Lazar, turning him into

473
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:44,480
Speaker 1: a superstar, putting three touchdowns in Robert Tonyan's hands. Like

474
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: it's it's fascinating to me because you've got Tom Brady,

475
00:24:48,080 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 1: who I think it's still capable of really high level play,

476
00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,880
Speaker 1: but suddenly doesn't have the help around him. And then

477
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,880
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, who we've been talking about for a few

478
00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,080
Speaker 1: years now. They they've never given him help. You know,

479
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 1: it's in Davante Atoms and nobody else, and we're finally

480
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,280
Speaker 1: seeing this year that, you know what, you might not

481
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:06,480
Speaker 1: have actually ever needed the help, at least in terms

482
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,639
Speaker 1: of supporting casts. He just needed the offense to be

483
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 1: tweaked a little bit, and then I don't know whether

484
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 1: he needed the fire lit under him again. But you know,

485
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: Rogers the best Starren Rodgers definitely looks to be back,

486
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,560
Speaker 1: and that I think makes them the favorites and pretty

487
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:23,399
Speaker 1: much every game they're gonna applay. So so do you

488
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: like them? This weekend against Tampa? I will add this

489
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:27,159
Speaker 1: little nugget and I don't know if a lot of

490
00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:29,200
Speaker 1: people have talked about this. I am a Jets fan,

491
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 1: and I know Mike Petton, the Packers defensive coordinator, did

492
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: a pretty good job against Tom Brady bat way back

493
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 1: in the Rex Ryan era. This was like eight years ago,

494
00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: so there is some familiarity there. I don't know if

495
00:25:40,800 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 1: this pretty bad Packers defense will be able to stop Tampa.

496
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:45,640
Speaker 1: But on the other side, like you said, Aaron Rodgers

497
00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 1: is a machine and the Tampa secondary they got had

498
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:51,680
Speaker 1: by Justin Herbert, you know, so I don't know, are

499
00:25:51,680 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 1: you leaning one way or the other here? Yeah? I

500
00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: do like the Packers. Initially, when I saw the line,

501
00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,280
Speaker 1: it felt like an overreaction to the Chicago game, you know,

502
00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: the Bucks kind of they could have won that game,

503
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:05,680
Speaker 1: should have won that game, and just ended up kind

504
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 1: of throwing it away at the end. It almost felt

505
00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: like an overreaction to that until you start to look

506
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: at all the guys they have on the injury report

507
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 1: and say, I mean that that really does justify it.

508
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:18,879
Speaker 1: You know, if he doesn't have all those receivers and

509
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 1: there is there's some defenders missing it as well. I

510
00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 1: think that does put a pretty big blow on that

511
00:26:24,240 --> 00:26:26,960
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay team, who I expect to still be really

512
00:26:27,000 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 1: good later in the year once they get healthy. But

513
00:26:29,160 --> 00:26:31,879
Speaker 1: right now I think you have to favor Aaron Rodgers

514
00:26:31,920 --> 00:26:34,199
Speaker 1: the way he's playing. Yeah, all right, let's go to

515
00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 1: a game a near and dear to my heart, because

516
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, I'm in love with this team, the

517
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 1: Detroit Lions. Uh and Matt Patricia is probably the worst

518
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 1: coach in the league. They're currently favorite against Jacksonville, and

519
00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:48,240
Speaker 1: Sam helped talk me off taking the Lions here and

520
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,119
Speaker 1: then sweating and cursing on Sunday that you shouldn't have

521
00:26:51,160 --> 00:26:53,880
Speaker 1: done it, because I mean, I see the Jags injury report.

522
00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:55,639
Speaker 1: A couple of guys are back. It looks like Josh

523
00:26:55,640 --> 00:26:59,240
Speaker 1: Allen like practice. Um the great cornerback, the young kids,

524
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 1: c J. Henderson looks like he's coming back. But you know,

525
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:04,919
Speaker 1: DJ Shark Chinalt, they're both hurt. They haven't practiced. What

526
00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 1: do you make of Lions Jaguars? Yeah, I'm kind of

527
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,000
Speaker 1: with you. And then I think that the Lions should

528
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 1: definitely win. The only thing that that goes against them is,

529
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 1: you know, the dealing when when you're a quarterback and

530
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 1: a young quarterback and you're trying to sort of show

531
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: that you're better than just, you know, just the body

532
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,439
Speaker 1: that was good enough to hold the place for a while.

533
00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: Um minshew, I think it has struggle doing that when

534
00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,239
Speaker 1: he's had the opportunity, hasn't necessarily played up to it.

535
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:34,760
Speaker 1: But against the Lions, you know what you're gonna be facing.

536
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,200
Speaker 1: You know, they play more man coverage than anybody else

537
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 1: in the NFL. They play cover one like in their snaps.

538
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: At least he knows what he's looking at and therefore

539
00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 1: knows where he should be going with the ball. And

540
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 1: he's an accurate quarterback. You know, Minshew has a lot

541
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 1: of faults, but he is a fundamentally accurate pastor of

542
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 1: the football. And it's easier to do that when you're

543
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 1: facing man coverage and you know what you're gonna be

544
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,120
Speaker 1: facing every single time. Then when you have to deal

545
00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,720
Speaker 1: with diagnosing the coverage first, then identifying the open guy,

546
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 1: then getting the ball to him with accuracy, particularly when

547
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: you have an arm like his that's kind of marginal

548
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:13,000
Speaker 1: and you don't have you know, if you cost yourself

549
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,639
Speaker 1: too much time with reading and diagnosing and then figuring

550
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:18,800
Speaker 1: out where to go, you might not have the the

551
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 1: arm to get it into the gap that you left

552
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:23,439
Speaker 1: yourself with. When you're playing man coverage, you can do

553
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 1: almost all that pre snap. You know where you're going

554
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 1: with the ball and it's just in case of hitting

555
00:28:27,720 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: the target. Oh geez, a true font. It looks like

556
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:33,920
Speaker 1: he's struggling this year. I know they've had some injuries

557
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,640
Speaker 1: in the secondary. Uh it it sounds like you think

558
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: maybe this is a stay away from I think the

559
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: Lions are going to dominate offensively. But if the question

560
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: is can Minshew keep up, because he always seems in

561
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter to be like, okay, he just needs

562
00:28:47,080 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 1: a touchdown, they cover, you know, right, And I think

563
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: the Lions have enough sort of there's enough concerns about

564
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: that defense that you do. I would worry that Minsho

565
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:58,920
Speaker 1: is able to kind of get enough going on offense

566
00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 1: to keep that close. All right. Let me go to

567
00:29:01,760 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 1: a game that I think it's interesting and people aren't

568
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,880
Speaker 1: really talking about it because Tennessee just played Tuesday. But

569
00:29:07,520 --> 00:29:10,719
Speaker 1: the Titans had I think two practices sam in like

570
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:15,200
Speaker 1: sixteen days. They came out and looked really impressive. I

571
00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 1: know the Buffalo defense is nothing that, nothing great, but

572
00:29:18,080 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: six for six in the red zone and now on

573
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 1: super short week they host the Houston Texans and I

574
00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: feel like Tennessee should be favored more than three. Is

575
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 1: this some kind of trap. Um. No, I think your

576
00:29:30,960 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: logic is true. I think it holds up. And people

577
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: are talking about how, you know, the Texans are better

578
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,479
Speaker 1: than their records so far and they've been the victim

579
00:29:39,560 --> 00:29:42,200
Speaker 1: of that really tough schedule to start the season, and

580
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: I think to an extent that's true. But their schedule

581
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 1: is not getting that much easier. You know, they have

582
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,880
Speaker 1: like a top five most difficult schedule from here on in.

583
00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,960
Speaker 1: They faced the Jags, and that's a pretty good team

584
00:29:53,960 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 1: to get yourself back on track against, particularly given the

585
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: injuries that they had. But Tennessee is not the Jags.

586
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,480
Speaker 1: Like they're going to be facing a good Tennessee team

587
00:30:03,520 --> 00:30:06,080
Speaker 1: and all the problems that were there through those first

588
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 1: four games are still there. So yeah, I think that

589
00:30:09,840 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: this bounce back for for Houston may well last one

590
00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 1: game and then they go back to being just a

591
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 1: very fundamentally floyal team. That's that's gonna struggle. How do

592
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: you And again, you're a real sharp mind when it

593
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: comes to NFL. When somebody says something like jadeveon Clowney

594
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,080
Speaker 1: revenge game, is it just kind of an eye roll

595
00:30:29,200 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 1: or I mean, I don't expect anybody to factor that

596
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,720
Speaker 1: into an analysis. But if Clowney is standing up in

597
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 1: the defensive room and says, guys, I spent some time

598
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 1: with these frauds. I know they're jokers. We got to

599
00:30:39,720 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 1: do this, this, this, and and it just kills them.

600
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 1: I mean, is that laughable? Or is there something to that?

601
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:48,520
Speaker 1: If Colonel, if anything, I mean, I think there might

602
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 1: be something to that on an individual player level that

603
00:30:51,400 --> 00:30:53,400
Speaker 1: you know, this guy is gonna want to try his

604
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: hardest to beat that team. And we may see Jadevy

605
00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 1: and Clowney have a great game, but the difference between

606
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 1: the over, the difference between Jadev and Clowney having an

607
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: average game and a great game, is probably not the

608
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,360
Speaker 1: difference between somebody winning and losing this game. So it

609
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 1: may well be a factor, and it may well be

610
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: a thing. It's just unlikely to be something that actually

611
00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:17,360
Speaker 1: materially impacts the outcome. Um. Is there a game you

612
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: like that you want to talk about, maybe an underdog

613
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,480
Speaker 1: you've looked at or um, I mean I like talking

614
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:26,160
Speaker 1: about Cleveland Pittsburgh because I don't understand why people are

615
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,160
Speaker 1: betting on on the Browns here. This was four and

616
00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 1: a half. I think at one point it was down

617
00:31:30,000 --> 00:31:31,840
Speaker 1: to three. Now it's about back up a little bit.

618
00:31:31,840 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: Odell Beckham sent home with an illness. I don't know

619
00:31:34,880 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: if you saw that on Thursday. Um, people are speculating

620
00:31:37,840 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 1: maybe it's COVID. Listen, people get sick whatever. Um, but

621
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:43,960
Speaker 1: what do you I mean Baker Mayfields with the rib injury,

622
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,400
Speaker 1: uh teller as I said out that both starting safeties

623
00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:49,920
Speaker 1: are nicked up having practice yet this week. I don't

624
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,640
Speaker 1: know Sam any thoughts on Brown Steelers. Yeah, I think

625
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,400
Speaker 1: this is one of the games of the week, and

626
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: I have a lot of very similar thoughts. I mean this,

627
00:31:57,720 --> 00:32:00,240
Speaker 1: it was already the biggest challenge that Baker may feel

628
00:32:00,280 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 1: his face since that week one. Now he's dealing with

629
00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:06,280
Speaker 1: that rib injury. And you know our boss Chris Collinsworth,

630
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,560
Speaker 1: he's got a podcast now and he was telling the

631
00:32:08,600 --> 00:32:11,600
Speaker 1: story about how look, just because he got cleared in

632
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,800
Speaker 1: the X ray, that doesn't mean anything because a lot

633
00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 1: of times, you know, if you have a cracked ribs,

634
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 1: they can't even see the crack until like two weeks

635
00:32:20,480 --> 00:32:23,479
Speaker 1: later when it starts to calcify ont heal, and then

636
00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: they're like, oh, look there was a crack. We didn't

637
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: see that the first time in the X tray, So

638
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: he's like, look, he may have got cleared, but that

639
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:33,400
Speaker 1: does not mean that those ribs are okay. Like, we

640
00:32:33,480 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: may see Baker Mayfield having some real problems against the

641
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 1: most blitz happy team in the NFL, the most um

642
00:32:40,160 --> 00:32:43,520
Speaker 1: pressure generating defense in the NFL. He is going to

643
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:47,560
Speaker 1: be under siege with bad ribs. So yeah, look, the

644
00:32:47,600 --> 00:32:50,240
Speaker 1: Browns have been doing a great job. That offense is

645
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 1: in good shape with Stefanski, but I think there's a

646
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:58,200
Speaker 1: serious scenario whereby they just get buried by this Pittsburgh defense.

647
00:32:58,800 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: Mm hmm, I'm if that's good to hear. All right,

648
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: let me go to one here, the Eagles and the Ravens. Um.

649
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:08,080
Speaker 1: I thought the Eagles would win the division. I've been

650
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 1: way wrong about them. And now Lane Johnson, their great

651
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: right tackle, he was carted off. He hasn't practiced yet

652
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: this week, and we already know the offensive line is

653
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: a mash unit in front of Wentz. As excited I

654
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 1: am is about Fulham, the wide receiver who came out

655
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:25,080
Speaker 1: of nowhere. I picked him up in fantasy. This team

656
00:33:25,120 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 1: just isn't very good. Give me a reason. The Ravens

657
00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 1: don't open a can on these guys and win by Yeah,

658
00:33:31,480 --> 00:33:33,400
Speaker 1: it's tough to find one. The only thing I will

659
00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,479
Speaker 1: say is that Carson Wentz looked different last week than

660
00:33:36,520 --> 00:33:38,400
Speaker 1: he's looked most of the least. You know, the first

661
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,120
Speaker 1: few weeks he was playing as bad as any quarterback

662
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:42,959
Speaker 1: in the NFL. But I think through three or four

663
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 1: weeks he was the lowest graded quarterback in the league

664
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: by PFF grades. Um something changed midway through that San

665
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:53,479
Speaker 1: Francisco game and he seemed to kind of get himself

666
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 1: in order in the second half. But then this past week,

667
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 1: I know there was, uh, you know, the numbers don't

668
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,320
Speaker 1: look great, and there was a bad interception in there,

669
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: but overall, he at least looked like he was back

670
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 1: to being able to throw the ball and deliver it

671
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:09,759
Speaker 1: where it needs to go and you know, generally hit

672
00:34:09,880 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: open receivers, which is what he wasn't able to do

673
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: in the first few weeks. Now he's still the injuries

674
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:18,240
Speaker 1: are still a problem, Like the offensive line is still bad,

675
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:22,120
Speaker 1: banged up down down in terms of depth, receiver is

676
00:34:22,120 --> 00:34:25,839
Speaker 1: still an issue even with full um. But I think

677
00:34:25,880 --> 00:34:28,840
Speaker 1: it's such a huge statement for this team that Carson

678
00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:31,080
Speaker 1: Wentz does look to be kind of at least back

679
00:34:31,120 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: to Carson Wentz, not whoever was playing for the first

680
00:34:34,120 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 1: few weeks. So it kind of feels like, look, it

681
00:34:37,040 --> 00:34:40,400
Speaker 1: didn't matter last week the team, you know, the Steelers

682
00:34:40,400 --> 00:34:42,759
Speaker 1: are too good, and it might not matter this week.

683
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 1: The Ravens are too good. But I think in terms

684
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: of that division, you know, which is still wide open

685
00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,080
Speaker 1: because nobody's able to win the long term. I think

686
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,800
Speaker 1: it's good and the Eagles might have a shot because

687
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: it looks like Wentz is kind of back, all right.

688
00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,600
Speaker 1: One last one before we get to the final game.

689
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, did you watch any of that Bengals game.

690
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 1: I don't know if you were involved in any grading,

691
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,080
Speaker 1: but it's pretty clear his something's up with his knee

692
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,400
Speaker 1: because he just made a concerted effort to stay in

693
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: the pocket ran nowhere. But the Eagles have never faced Lamar. Now,

694
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:16,280
Speaker 1: the Bengals have seeing Lamar Jackson plenty, I think four times.

695
00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:19,160
Speaker 1: Uh first time the Eagles see Lamar there should be

696
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:21,239
Speaker 1: a game where he opens it up and can get

697
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:23,920
Speaker 1: loose for some big place. Any thoughts on Lamar and

698
00:35:23,960 --> 00:35:26,760
Speaker 1: the knee and whether or not he's trying to pivot

699
00:35:26,800 --> 00:35:29,840
Speaker 1: to being a pocket guy. Yeah. I think it's probably

700
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:32,200
Speaker 1: a few things in that he I think you're right

701
00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:35,719
Speaker 1: that his knee is not They probably didn't want to

702
00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 1: run him a ton in that game, and it also

703
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:40,439
Speaker 1: sort of it had an air about it that, look,

704
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 1: we just got beat up by the Chiefs. We got

705
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: put in that hole that we've been put in before

706
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 1: where we suddenly have to be a passing team and

707
00:35:49,120 --> 00:35:51,880
Speaker 1: chase a game, and it went badly again. We weren't

708
00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:53,520
Speaker 1: able to hang with the Chiefs, who weren't able to

709
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: get that offense going. It almost felt like, you know,

710
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 1: we're gonna beat the Bengals. Look, we're gonna beat the Bengals,

711
00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:03,239
Speaker 1: Lamar is, so let's practice. Let's try and get this

712
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 1: offense going as a passing entity without the run game

713
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,720
Speaker 1: being a huge part of it. And you know, obviously

714
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:12,880
Speaker 1: they won the game, but it didn't exactly go beautifully

715
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:16,320
Speaker 1: in terms of trying to pivot to that past happy system.

716
00:36:16,719 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 1: But you're right, it's an interesting matchup with this Eagles

717
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: defensive front that's still really good, still has a lot

718
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: of talent on it, but they're not used to defending

719
00:36:25,640 --> 00:36:28,880
Speaker 1: a weapon like Lamar that can just completely mess up

720
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,919
Speaker 1: what you're trying to do. Alright, last game, Real Quick

721
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,600
Speaker 1: Chiefs at the Bills Buffalo also played on Tuesday. They

722
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 1: you know, reality check for Josh Allen and company, I

723
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:42,000
Speaker 1: mean Andy Reid and Pat Mahomes. Again, this is a narrative,

724
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,479
Speaker 1: the idea of them coming off a loss, a team

725
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:47,440
Speaker 1: that hasn't lost a football game in a long time.

726
00:36:48,080 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 1: It feels like this is a spot that Kansas City

727
00:36:50,440 --> 00:36:52,759
Speaker 1: really moves the football at will. I do have some

728
00:36:52,920 --> 00:36:55,480
Speaker 1: questions about that defense, But is there a reason you

729
00:36:55,480 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 1: wouldn't take Kansas City favored by four on the road here.

730
00:36:58,480 --> 00:37:01,799
Speaker 1: The only reason is I'm not usually big on the

731
00:37:01,880 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: narrative of you know, this team gave everybody a blueprint

732
00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 1: to beat somebody, right, But the Raiders kind of did

733
00:37:08,719 --> 00:37:11,200
Speaker 1: with Patrick Mahomes. You know a lot of times people

734
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:13,920
Speaker 1: say that, and it's like, all you need is, you know,

735
00:37:14,000 --> 00:37:16,400
Speaker 1: the best quarterback in the NFL and a great pass

736
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,319
Speaker 1: rush and stuff you can't replicate. But the Raiders don't

737
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:22,480
Speaker 1: have a ton of talent. And yet they did a

738
00:37:22,680 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: very They had a very concerned game plan to cause

739
00:37:26,080 --> 00:37:29,719
Speaker 1: Mahomes problems, and it did. They sort of they almost

740
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:33,000
Speaker 1: um daded him into running out of the pocket in

741
00:37:33,040 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: a certain direction and had linebackers very quickly waiting to

742
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: chase him the second he left the pocket and basically

743
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 1: put him under pressure out in space because usually you

744
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,680
Speaker 1: see him running around and he has all day to

745
00:37:45,719 --> 00:37:49,000
Speaker 1: sort of find that crazy pass that only Patrick Mahomes

746
00:37:49,000 --> 00:37:51,800
Speaker 1: can make. But as soon as he left the pocket,

747
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:54,840
Speaker 1: there was one or two linebackers from the Raiders chasing

748
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 1: him down. And I'm just interesting to see whether Buffalo's

749
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:02,080
Speaker 1: defense takes something from that tape and tries to put

750
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:05,279
Speaker 1: Mahomes in the same kind of situations. Um and if

751
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:08,240
Speaker 1: Mahomes falls for it, you know, or if he learns

752
00:38:08,280 --> 00:38:10,239
Speaker 1: from what he did last week and and hangs in

753
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 1: the pocket more and tries to kind of keep things

754
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 1: going from from inside the structure of the offense more

755
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: than he did, because that felt like Texas tech Patrick

756
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,160
Speaker 1: Mahomes for the first time a long time. Uh. And

757
00:38:22,440 --> 00:38:24,200
Speaker 1: I should add I don't know if you've seen the news.

758
00:38:24,239 --> 00:38:26,640
Speaker 1: We're taping this on Thursday afternoon, but it just broke

759
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: that Levian Bell has signed with the Chiefs, and I

760
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 1: just looked at the line. This game was three and

761
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: a half a lot of places that went up to

762
00:38:33,600 --> 00:38:35,239
Speaker 1: four and a half. Now, I don't know if that's

763
00:38:35,280 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 1: because of the Levian Bell signing. I can't imagine he's

764
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,520
Speaker 1: worth a point. He doesn't know the offense, like, come on, um,

765
00:38:41,560 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: but any thoughts on Levian Bell going to the chiefs

766
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: um Edwards a laire. The rookie looked awesome in week

767
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 1: one and since then he's been pretty quiet. Um, Levian

768
00:38:52,000 --> 00:38:54,840
Speaker 1: Bell just another weapon for Pat Mahomes. Huh. Yeah, And

769
00:38:54,840 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: I do think the Levian Bell would go back to

770
00:38:57,239 --> 00:38:59,680
Speaker 1: looking very very good in that offense. You know. He

771
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 1: The biggest sort of point about running backs is that

772
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:05,600
Speaker 1: all the data says that they are more a product

773
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:08,359
Speaker 1: of their environment than they are the product of the

774
00:39:08,400 --> 00:39:11,760
Speaker 1: talent that they have versus other running backs. So Levan

775
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:14,879
Speaker 1: Bell in Pittsburgh was in one of the best running

776
00:39:14,920 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: back situations in the NFL. Great offensive line, good quarterback,

777
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:22,279
Speaker 1: high octane passing attack offense that was willing to split

778
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: him out and use him in creative ways, and he

779
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:27,120
Speaker 1: looks like an all time great running back. Then he

780
00:39:27,160 --> 00:39:31,240
Speaker 1: goes to the Jets. Offensive line is bad, quarterbacks not good.

781
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:34,200
Speaker 1: Coaching is not helping him out, and everyone's asking is

782
00:39:34,239 --> 00:39:36,800
Speaker 1: he done? Like is he just not that good anymore?

783
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 1: And the truth is, like you put him somewhere in

784
00:39:39,120 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: the middle between those two situations, and he's gonna go

785
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,800
Speaker 1: back to being somewhere in the middle. And if anything,

786
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,480
Speaker 1: he's on the Pittsburgh into the spectrum in terms of

787
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:52,680
Speaker 1: Kansas City because Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, that offensive line

788
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,359
Speaker 1: is good, not great, but he should look way better

789
00:39:56,360 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 1: than he's looked so far, and probably pretty close to

790
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: the guy that was playing in Pittsburgh. That's a scary prospect.

791
00:40:02,480 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: I mean this, this guy was at all pro two

792
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:05,960
Speaker 1: years ago, right or three years ago? I guess he

793
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:08,920
Speaker 1: did nothing with the Jets. He did not have one carry, Sam,

794
00:40:08,960 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 1: I think he was in seventeen games, zero carries over

795
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:14,640
Speaker 1: twenty yards like that. But that doesn't mean anything like

796
00:40:14,680 --> 00:40:16,640
Speaker 1: you said, because the coach stinks and the line blows.

797
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: But all right, Sam Monson, Hey, great stuff. Follow him

798
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 1: on social media. He's at Pro Football Focus. I love

799
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:25,719
Speaker 1: your work, Sam, great analysis and enjoy the weekend. Appreciate it.

800
00:40:25,840 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: Thanks for having me on the only thing better than

801
00:40:29,640 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 1: sitting on your couch watching the game. He's making money

802
00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 1: while you do it. Here's your best bet. Alright, it's

803
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: time for the best bet. You're on straight fire took

804
00:40:42,000 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 1: an l Tuesday about ugly L. The Buffalo Bills lost

805
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:49,160
Speaker 1: his favorites in Tennessee, dropped the record to thirty one

806
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:53,440
Speaker 1: nineteen and four. It's a nice little six clip. Now

807
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 1: that's not all NFL games. We've had some new listeners

808
00:40:56,480 --> 00:40:58,760
Speaker 1: this week, which is always nice to the new folks

809
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,479
Speaker 1: who have not been here. From the jump, you missed out.

810
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 1: We did a lot of n B A and we're

811
00:41:04,000 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 1: doing obviously multiple NFL picks and we're gonna start to

812
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:10,279
Speaker 1: do college once the Big ten gets in action here.

813
00:41:10,320 --> 00:41:14,000
Speaker 1: I believe next weekend, Uh, thirty one nineteen and four.

814
00:41:14,040 --> 00:41:16,759
Speaker 1: That's you know, over the long haul, you want to

815
00:41:16,840 --> 00:41:19,759
Speaker 1: hit about fifty seven percent to be winning, and uh

816
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: it's tough to keep that up, very tough if you

817
00:41:21,840 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 1: have been gambling for many years. Let's dive into the NFL.

818
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: I've picked three games each week, folks, getting greedy going

819
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:33,040
Speaker 1: with four games off the jump, the Miami Dolphins favored

820
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 1: by nine against my New York Jets. Now I know

821
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:38,719
Speaker 1: this sounds a little crazy. It's minus nine one ten

822
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:43,879
Speaker 1: um where you're shopping here on Thursday and what I saw.

823
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 1: This is not an overreaction to the forty Niners game.

824
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: This is not a buy high on the Dolphins. This

825
00:41:48,840 --> 00:41:53,440
Speaker 1: is a schematic play. The Dolphins finally have Byron Jones

826
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:57,640
Speaker 1: and Xavian Howard the cornerbacks healthy. They have not been

827
00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 1: healthy much this season when they're on the field together.

828
00:42:01,000 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: Fun fact, they have yet to give up a touchdown.

829
00:42:05,920 --> 00:42:08,600
Speaker 1: That's pretty good. Don't throw at Zavian Howard, He's one

830
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,360
Speaker 1: of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. And remember, Byron

831
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 1: Joneses are big, splashy free agent steal from the Cowboys.

832
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,600
Speaker 1: There's a reason the Cowboys secondary stinks because their best

833
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:22,120
Speaker 1: player is in Miami. So they were able to play

834
00:42:22,200 --> 00:42:24,600
Speaker 1: on islands against the forty Niners, who have no receivers

835
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,160
Speaker 1: to begin with. You're able to pull the safety's up,

836
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: take away the run game, and blitz the hell out

837
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 1: of Jimmy g and C. J. Beethor the result destruction

838
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,959
Speaker 1: and folks, it ain't gonna be much different with the Jets.

839
00:42:37,000 --> 00:42:41,919
Speaker 1: I know, Brashad Perryman is back. Whoop did damn do? Okay? Um?

840
00:42:42,440 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 1: Listen as a longtime Jets fan. It pains me to

841
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:46,800
Speaker 1: say this, but yeah, I give me zavian A Howard

842
00:42:46,840 --> 00:42:49,279
Speaker 1: over Brashad Perriman any day of the week. There and

843
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,600
Speaker 1: they're gonna lock up the Jets receivers. Jets do not

844
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 1: have their best tackle McKay Beckton. He has also missed

845
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,920
Speaker 1: practice all week. He missed last game. And uh, I think,

846
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:00,360
Speaker 1: just think they're gonna blitz the a lot of the

847
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 1: Jets and it's gonna be a long day for Joe Flacco.

848
00:43:03,160 --> 00:43:07,880
Speaker 1: Jets can't run to begin with. Um, I'm sorry, I

849
00:43:08,040 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 1: don't love Ryan Fitzpatrick covering a nine point spread, but

850
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:16,560
Speaker 1: I'm assuming at least one turnover maybe two for Flacco

851
00:43:16,600 --> 00:43:18,480
Speaker 1: is setting up a short field And and I just

852
00:43:18,680 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 1: I wonder if my Jets have quit on Adam Gays

853
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:26,399
Speaker 1: Last week, okay, against Arizona, which had been struggling two

854
00:43:26,440 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: losses in a row. The Jets defense had one quarterback hit,

855
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:35,840
Speaker 1: one sack, one tackle for loss. That's it. And Arizona's

856
00:43:35,840 --> 00:43:39,040
Speaker 1: offensive lines no great shakes. I like the Dolphins favored

857
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: by nine. Next pick, this is another risky one. This

858
00:43:42,120 --> 00:43:44,200
Speaker 1: is a big favorite, and this is you know, if

859
00:43:44,200 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 1: I come back with an own four. I'm gonna understand

860
00:43:48,800 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: this is stupid and big favorites are risky. The New

861
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 1: England Patriots favored by nine and a half against Denver. Um.

862
00:43:55,840 --> 00:43:58,239
Speaker 1: I don't care if Drew Lock starts. I don't care

863
00:43:58,239 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 1: if John Locke, the Lost character is starting at quarterback.

864
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 1: I don't care if it's Jeff driscoll or Brett Rippon.

865
00:44:06,600 --> 00:44:10,959
Speaker 1: I'm taking Bill Belichick with two weeks preparation for a

866
00:44:11,040 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 1: beat up Broncos team that has half a dozen players

867
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,960
Speaker 1: on I R. Unfortunately, most of them are on the

868
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: offensive side of the football. I don't know how they

869
00:44:19,560 --> 00:44:21,839
Speaker 1: moved the ball here. Melvin Gordon had a d UY

870
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:24,120
Speaker 1: this week. It's unlikely that he's gonna play due to

871
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:28,040
Speaker 1: a suspension. Um, Philip lindsay, maybe back, but go ahead

872
00:44:28,080 --> 00:44:30,880
Speaker 1: and scoop up Royce Freeman. Uh in fantasy if you

873
00:44:31,000 --> 00:44:32,880
Speaker 1: need somebody two weeks from now. Broncos are on a

874
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:37,080
Speaker 1: bye week next week. Um. Obviously, because I did that,

875
00:44:37,120 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 1: I got Royce Freeman and I dropped Melvin Gordon, who's

876
00:44:40,040 --> 00:44:43,880
Speaker 1: a bum. Um. And I you know, listen, Cam Newton

877
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:46,040
Speaker 1: didn't play last game due to COVID and the defense

878
00:44:46,120 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 1: kept the minute there is some question about Gilmore did

879
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 1: test positive for COVID. I believe it will have been

880
00:44:51,719 --> 00:44:54,600
Speaker 1: over ten days, so there's a chance he plays Sunday

881
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,279
Speaker 1: either way. Bill Belichick's two weeks to prepare for vic

882
00:44:57,320 --> 00:45:00,319
Speaker 1: Fangio say goodnight. I like the Patriots favorite by nine

883
00:45:00,360 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 1: and a half. Another favorite, but a lower line, Steelers

884
00:45:03,640 --> 00:45:07,760
Speaker 1: favored by three. We covered this extensively with Sam Monson

885
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 1: in the interview, which is tremendous. Um. I know the

886
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh opponents records is three fift and one, Um, but

887
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 1: it's not like the Browns of beating anybody. Okay, so

888
00:45:17,920 --> 00:45:20,879
Speaker 1: you take away the Ravens loss and their four wins

889
00:45:20,920 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 1: are against teams that are seven, twelve and one. And

890
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:27,920
Speaker 1: again I talked about with Sam um the Baker Mayfield injury,

891
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:33,120
Speaker 1: the pressure rate of the Steelers putting on opposing quarterbacks,

892
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:36,399
Speaker 1: the struggles of the Brown's offensive line with the great

893
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:40,399
Speaker 1: guard out. I don't know unless there's massive breakdowns again

894
00:45:40,400 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 1: in the Steeler secondary. I see um Baker Mayfield struggling here,

895
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,680
Speaker 1: and uh, I like the Steelers favored by three. That

896
00:45:47,680 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 1: that's actually my favorite bet of the week, if you

897
00:45:49,600 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 1: have to ask me. I don't know who's betting on

898
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 1: the Browns. It was four or four and a half

899
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 1: and it came down to three. I scooped it up.

900
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 1: I bought the dips, and I like Pittsburgh a lot.

901
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: So we got Dolphins favored by nine, pay Treats favored

902
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 1: by nine and a half, Pittsburgh by three, and my

903
00:46:02,320 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 1: final one really risky here, uh road favorite of more

904
00:46:08,160 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 1: than a touchdown. That's just gross. It's not really in

905
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: my DNA, but I'm sorry, I gotta do it. The

906
00:46:12,640 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 1: numbers say Baltimore is a considerable favorite against Philly for

907
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:22,040
Speaker 1: many many reasons. The Ravens defense has looked spotty at

908
00:46:22,080 --> 00:46:25,560
Speaker 1: times against Pat Mahomes, but other than that game, lights

909
00:46:25,560 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 1: out and their pressuring quarterbacks uh much better than you

910
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:33,680
Speaker 1: saw in the Mahomes game. They mistakenly tried to blitz Mahomes.

911
00:46:33,680 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: It didn't work and they got crushed. I mean, you

912
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:38,880
Speaker 1: could blitz Carson Wentz all you want. Carson Wentz is

913
00:46:38,920 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 1: not making the plays of Mahomes. Is. Wentz did look

914
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 1: okay last week moving around in the pocket, but you

915
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: can force him into interceptions. The Steelers did that, and

916
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:51,760
Speaker 1: this Baltimore secondary um it can get tenacious at times.

917
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 1: I like Marcus Peters a lot, and offensively, I haven't

918
00:46:55,880 --> 00:46:59,960
Speaker 1: seen a team the first time around with Lamar jack

919
00:47:00,000 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 1: exon stop him second time around. Hey, we've seen this,

920
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 1: we know what's coming. How do you plan for Lamar

921
00:47:05,160 --> 00:47:07,400
Speaker 1: Jackson in practice? And don't tell me Jalen Hurts is

922
00:47:07,440 --> 00:47:10,120
Speaker 1: the guy. Jalen Hurts is a nice quarterback. But it's

923
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 1: it's almost as if the Ravens held off on Lamar

924
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 1: running against the Bengals, not only because of the knee,

925
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:20,160
Speaker 1: but also because they didn't want to put anything else

926
00:47:20,239 --> 00:47:23,240
Speaker 1: on tape. For the Eagles, there's a big gate. Ravens

927
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:26,319
Speaker 1: Eagles is a big game. Um. Eagles were projected to

928
00:47:26,320 --> 00:47:27,960
Speaker 1: be one of the better teams in the league. They

929
00:47:27,960 --> 00:47:31,479
Speaker 1: were projected to win the NFC East. Baltimore is gonna

930
00:47:31,480 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 1: go in there. This is not a long road trip

931
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 1: for them, and I expect big, smash mouth football and

932
00:47:36,760 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 1: Eagles are pretty good stopping the run. Although I believe

933
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:41,879
Speaker 1: James Conner hit a hundred last week. I should double

934
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:44,359
Speaker 1: check that. But Baltimore Ravens favored by seven and a half.

935
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 1: I like him here. I think this number creeps up

936
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:49,719
Speaker 1: a little bit and I'm sorry, I just think this

937
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 1: is a Ravens team that's on a mission since the loss.

938
00:47:53,640 --> 00:47:55,640
Speaker 1: Very narrative of me, right to say, on a mission

939
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:59,760
Speaker 1: since the loss. They were humbled a bit by Mahomes

940
00:47:59,760 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 1: and the Chiefs. And and I like Baltimore here favored

941
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:03,520
Speaker 1: by seven and a half. So those are the four picks.

942
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 1: Risky going all favorites last week two and one on Sunday,

943
00:48:07,960 --> 00:48:12,879
Speaker 1: with two favorites covering and the underdog Washington Football Club

944
00:48:12,960 --> 00:48:15,920
Speaker 1: not coming through, So going Dolphins by nine, Patriots by

945
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: nine and a half, Baltimore seven and a half in

946
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh by three. Everybody enjoy the game's good luck. We'll

947
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:22,800
Speaker 1: talk to you Monday.