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Speaker 1: This is Dana Perkins and you're listening to Switched on

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Speaker 1: the b and EF podcast. On today's show, we're taking

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Speaker 1: a look at a metal that is integral to the

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Speaker 1: majority of electric vehicle battery chemistries and it is therefore

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Speaker 1: one of the most in demand medals. That's lithium. Last

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Speaker 1: week there were a couple of new discoveries of lithium deposits,

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Speaker 1: both in the United States and in the Czech Republic.

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Speaker 1: It's clear that countries around the world are looking to

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Speaker 1: find this important metal, but what about refining well, Currently

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Speaker 1: that part of lithium's supply chain is dominated by one country.

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Speaker 1: And then what about the companies involved in this space.

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Speaker 1: While there is a small list of dedicated mining companies

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Speaker 1: that are on the case. On today's episode, I speak

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Speaker 1: with two analysts from Benof's London office who know a

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Speaker 1: thing or two about lithium. One is a metals and

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Speaker 1: mining analyst, Elie Gomaskalis and the other from our batteries team,

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Speaker 1: Andy Leach. Together we discuss where lithium is found, along

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Speaker 1: with the different forms it takes, how it's mined, and

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Speaker 1: the ecological impact of the different processes, as well as

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Speaker 1: why the majority of major diversified miners might be avoiding

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Speaker 1: this metal, and which nations are controlling the supply and refining. Lastly,

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Speaker 1: we come to the relationship between lithium and different battery

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Speaker 1: chemistries and whether or not sodium ion batteries could pose

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Speaker 1: a threat to its dominance. If you'd like to learn

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Speaker 1: more about lithium, BNIF subscribers are able to access the

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Speaker 1: links that are included in the show notes, which relate

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Speaker 1: to different b and EF research that's found on BNF

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Speaker 1: dot com. As always, if you like this podcast, make

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Speaker 1: sure to subscribe and you'll receive an update every time

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Speaker 1: we publish a show. And if you want to spread

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Speaker 1: the word to others, give us a review on Apple

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Speaker 1: Podcasts or Spotify and will make us more discoverable. But

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Speaker 1: right now, let's come to my conversation with Ellie and

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Speaker 1: Andy about lithium. Ellie, thank you for joining today.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for having me, Dana.

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Speaker 1: And nice to see you as well.

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Speaker 3: Andy, thank you for having me.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's start with the history lesson part of this.

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Speaker 1: So lithium, I want to know when did I mean?

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Speaker 1: It's definitely something that many people who are listening today

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Speaker 1: we are aware of this metal. We are aware that

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Speaker 1: is critical for batteries, but when did the use case

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Speaker 1: for lithium really take off and essentrally, are we competing

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Speaker 1: with another incumbent industry or did batteries put lithium on

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Speaker 1: the map.

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Speaker 3: So lithium has had a number of uses over the years.

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Speaker 3: It's been used in the past as a medicine for

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Speaker 3: mental health issues, It's been used in glasses and ceramics.

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Speaker 3: But since nineteen ninety one it's been used as a

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Speaker 3: battery material. And nineteen ninety one was when Sony first

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Speaker 3: commercialized lithiumine batteries, and they use lithium cobo oxide as

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Speaker 3: their cathoide material. And since then batteries have grown their

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Speaker 3: demand segment and as a consequence, they're now very much

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Speaker 3: the main demand use for lithium.

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Speaker 1: So consumer electronics really make lithium in some respects a

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Speaker 1: household name or at least a piece of many household

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Speaker 1: products that we're very aware of and interact with. But

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Speaker 1: then now with it a part of batteries and really

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Speaker 1: seeing the electric vehicle industry take off, and certainly the

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Speaker 1: forecast that we see in our electric vehicle outlook, which

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Speaker 1: we do on an annual basis shows that there will

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Speaker 1: be increased demand. What sort of demand are we really

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Speaker 1: forecasting for lithium ion batteries specifically?

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Speaker 3: So you're right, as you mentioned, lithium started in consumer electronics,

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Speaker 3: and it wasn't until the late twenty tens, at only

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Speaker 3: twenty nineteen, where batteries are being used in electric vehicles

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Speaker 3: became the main demand segment, and that's only expected to

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Speaker 3: continue to grow. So between now and twenty thirty five,

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Speaker 3: the lithium I'M battery demand in vehicles is expected to

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Speaker 3: really drive demand globally, and that will see a ninefold

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Speaker 3: increase from twenty twenty two levels to twenty thirty five.

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Speaker 1: Now, battery chemistry seemed to constantly be changing, and honestly,

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Speaker 1: I was speaking with my producer today and saying we

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Speaker 1: should be doing a show specifically on battery chemistries. But

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Speaker 1: for just the next couple of minutes, lithium ion batteries

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Speaker 1: certainly make it clear that there is lithium in these batteries.

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Speaker 1: Is lithium found in other battery chemistries just not as prevalent,

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Speaker 1: or are lithium ion batteries the only ones that have

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Speaker 1: lithium in them so.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, as you say, lithium in the name of lithium

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Speaker 3: ion batteries is the lithium is in all these batteries.

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Speaker 3: There are other battery technologies which are emerging at the moment,

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Speaker 3: but their uptake and commercial uses is very low at

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Speaker 3: the moment. So sodium ion batteries is a key sort

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Speaker 3: of disruptive technology that we expect to see come into

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Speaker 3: the market over the next couple of years. But at

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Speaker 3: the minute, there's not very many people manufacturing these batteries

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Speaker 3: at a commercial scale within different battery chemistries, within the

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Speaker 3: lithium ion battery family, as it were, Lithium use does

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Speaker 3: vary between the chemistries for the amounts of energy that

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Speaker 3: you can store, so per killer or tower of energy

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Speaker 3: that you can store in the batteries, and we have

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Speaker 3: some reports that discuss these different levels of lithium in

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Speaker 3: different batteries.

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Speaker 1: But it would be safe to say that the forward

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Speaker 1: outlook for lithium is increased demand. And then therefore we're

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Speaker 1: here to talk about really how where who do we

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Speaker 1: get the supply from?

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Speaker 3: Yeap, So, as I said, sodium ion batteries are a

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Speaker 3: disruptive technology which may come in to the market and

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Speaker 3: take some market share. However, in the electric vehicle outlook

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Speaker 3: we did earlier this year, we looked at a couple

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Speaker 3: of different scenarios of sodium ion penetration into the market.

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Speaker 3: At a scenario where there wasn't any a scenario with

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Speaker 3: a sort of expected amount of sodium iin in the

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Speaker 3: chemistry mix, and a very aggressive sodium ion uptake in

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Speaker 3: the market. And even in the most unlikely and disruptive

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Speaker 3: and aggressive sodium ion uptake, we still see a five

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Speaker 3: fold increase in lithium demand out to twenty thirty five.

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Speaker 3: And this is just a consequence of the whole lithium

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Speaker 3: ion battery industry growing so much, as I previously mentioned.

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Speaker 3: So even of the sort of market share of lithimum

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Speaker 3: batteries drops a little bit, because the whole market is

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Speaker 3: growing so much, lithium demand is expected to increase.

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Speaker 1: So let's go then to where we find this supply.

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Speaker 1: Where in the world is it located? And you know,

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Speaker 1: can we find it everywhere? Are there a few countries

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Speaker 1: that actually have the majority of the supply?

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Speaker 2: So lithium deposits are sort of split into two different sections.

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Speaker 2: The first is hard rock and predominantly the industry talks

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Speaker 2: about spody mean, this is one of the higher grades

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Speaker 2: of lithium ore and that is usually found in Australia.

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Speaker 2: And there's different areas such as Africa that also have

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Speaker 2: SPoD you mean, and hard rock mining there too. Then

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Speaker 2: in lithium, there's also another deposit, which is lithium can

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Speaker 2: be found in brine, and this is found in groundwater

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Speaker 2: all around the world, but predominantly it's found in South America.

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Speaker 1: I find it really interesting that you find lithium in brine.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you think so much about mining in terms

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Speaker 1: of it actually being extracted from somewhere deep within i

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Speaker 1: rock as opposed to in some respects kind of quite

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Speaker 1: close to the surface. Can we go into a little

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Speaker 1: more detail on mining and then following that come to

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Speaker 1: the refining process. How difficult is it for us to

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Speaker 1: get this out of the ground. For the companies that

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Speaker 1: are trying to extract it is a very costly endeavor.

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Speaker 2: So, as I mentioned before, the two different types of

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Speaker 2: posit require two different types of mining or extraction methods.

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Speaker 2: And first you have the extraction from hard rock, and

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Speaker 2: that is typical type of mining. You have the large

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Speaker 2: rocks in the back of the big lorries and you

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Speaker 2: have them running around at like twenty miles twenty miles

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Speaker 2: per hour, or it's essentially dug up, crushed, ground and

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Speaker 2: roasted at high temperatures before being filtered, purified and turned

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Speaker 2: into lithium carbonate. And lithium carbonate is a battery gade product,

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Speaker 2: so it goes directly into the manufacturing of these batteries. However,

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Speaker 2: lithium carbonate can be further refined into lithium hydroxide and

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Speaker 2: this is also another battery grade product. Brine extraction is

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Speaker 2: slightly different because here you have vast areas of saline

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Speaker 2: ground water that are pumped to the surface by project

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Speaker 2: developers and these are left to evaporate in a series

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Speaker 2: of ponds, which leaves a concentrated brian remaining, and once

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Speaker 2: this remains is then filtered purified into lithium carbonate, which

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Speaker 2: may then be turned into lithium hydroxide. In terms of cost,

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Speaker 2: our estimates show that spodamine extraction is at least double

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Speaker 2: the price of brine extraction, with prices starting at around

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Speaker 2: four thousand dollars per ton.

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Speaker 1: And spojamine extraction spodamine being the rock that the lithium

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Speaker 1: is literally found in yes.

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Speaker 2: So it's a type of lithium or and at the

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Speaker 2: moment it's the industry's preferred or type because it has

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Speaker 2: some of the higher grades of lithium in it.

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Speaker 1: In the process to make battery grade lithium, where in

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Speaker 1: refining does it actually change hands and change countries from

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Speaker 1: where it was extracted to those who are actually refining it.

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Speaker 2: So with brine, because of the process and the inherent

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Speaker 2: characteristics of the process, it means that a lot of

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Speaker 2: the refining happens at the same site at which the

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Speaker 2: brian and the evaporation pools are because it's difficult to

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Speaker 2: transport a concentrated Brian solution in liquid from one place

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Speaker 2: to another. It just doesn't really seem feasible. So a

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Speaker 2: lot of the refining happens at the same site. However,

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Speaker 2: where it changes is that a lot of a lithium

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Speaker 2: carbonate may be shipped to another country to then be

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Speaker 2: turned into hydroxide. It wouldn't necessarily happen in the same

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Speaker 2: location as.

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Speaker 3: The brine extraction.

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Speaker 2: On the hard rock, you have a bit more flexibility

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Speaker 2: because it's a lot easier to deliver rock or ground

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Speaker 2: up rock to another location rather than a concentrated Brian's

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Speaker 2: what we see is once it's got past the crushing

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Speaker 2: and the grinding and the roasting, it's sent overseas, usually

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Speaker 2: to China to do some more refining.

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Speaker 1: Now you say usually China, how much of refining actually

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Speaker 1: takes place in China?

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Speaker 2: So according to our BNFD risked Supply database, around seventy

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Speaker 2: two percent of lithium was refined in China in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty two.

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Speaker 1: That's a huge part of the market. And in terms

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Speaker 1: of looking into the future of that, does that seem

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Speaker 1: to hold for the next five plus years.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. We see that China continues to dominate

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Speaker 2: up to at least twenty thirty.

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Speaker 1: And how much of the lithium that's actually extracted and

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Speaker 1: making its way to China is coming from external sources

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Speaker 1: versus being well, I guess domestically produced.

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Speaker 2: So if we look at the MIND supply again, looking

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Speaker 2: at figures for twenty twenty two, Australia was the world's

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Speaker 2: top producer of mind lithium with forty two percent of

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Speaker 2: the market share, followed by Chile with thirty percent of

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Speaker 2: the market share, and then China finally with twenty percent

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Speaker 2: of the market share, so it only had a fifth

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Speaker 2: of total mind supply in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 1: So does that mean that ultimately China is buying that

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Speaker 1: lithium from elsewhere and then selling it on or are

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Speaker 1: the companies essentially that are making the batteries buying the

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Speaker 1: lithium but then sending it to China for refining who

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Speaker 1: owns the lithium? And essentially is China acquiring a large

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Speaker 1: amount of the world's existing lithium supply in order to

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Speaker 1: refine it and then sell it on.

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Speaker 2: So the answers question goes quite a long way back,

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Speaker 2: and it starts back in the late noughties where China

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Speaker 2: decided to give all these political commitments to green technologies

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Speaker 2: because they saw the energy transition as an opportunity and

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Speaker 2: the country had ambitions to become a midstream and downstream

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Speaker 2: manufacturing base, and it had what it needed to do that,

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Speaker 2: but it was missing the key ingredients, which is critical minerals.

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Speaker 2: So what it did is it started to invest early

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Speaker 2: in some of these upstream projects overseas to ensure that

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Speaker 2: they had that constant stream of material and lithium coming

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Speaker 2: in to meet their battery manufacturing capacity.

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Speaker 1: And when you say invest early, you mean early two thousands,

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Speaker 1: so literally twenty years ago or did they buy up

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Speaker 1: these assets quite a long time ago?

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Speaker 2: Is where they sort of had the vision and then

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Speaker 2: lithium only started really becoming big in terms of demand

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Speaker 2: and seeing it as an opportunity mid to late teens.

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Speaker 1: This is really useful context because I think oftentimes when

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Speaker 1: we talk about being in an industry early, we're not

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Speaker 1: talking about ten years ago. We're talking about so much

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Speaker 1: further back. But the stuff that we're looking at here,

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Speaker 1: the change is happening so fast. That's really fascinating that

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Speaker 1: we're dealing with these very short periods of time, but

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Speaker 1: really do ultimately make all the differences to whether or

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Speaker 1: not you're an incumbent player. And you certainly see that

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Speaker 1: when it comes to charging networks, which is the topic

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Speaker 1: of last week's show. So when it comes to China

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Speaker 1: and their role in this space, they saw in advance

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Speaker 1: that there was going to be the transition, and I

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Speaker 1: guess we're a bit of conjecture here as to what

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Speaker 1: was happening, but we certainly do see policies and decisions

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Speaker 1: being made in terms of being involved in the lithium

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Speaker 1: industry before it was the lithium industry that we know today.

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Speaker 1: Can you give me a couple of examples of things

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Speaker 1: that China did to make sure that they would be

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Speaker 1: one of the established players in this space that now

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Speaker 1: has over seventy percent of refining capacity.

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Speaker 2: The two big lithium players in China are Gang Feng

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Speaker 2: and Tian Schi. If you first take Gunfeng, they have

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Speaker 2: a fifty percent ownership in the Mount Marion mine in

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Speaker 2: Australia and this started production back in twenty seventeen and

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Speaker 2: it's now the second largest lithium mine in the world.

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Speaker 2: So having a fifty percent ownership in that obviously gives

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Speaker 2: some access to this really really valuable and high in

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Speaker 2: demand material. But then if we look at Tian Schi,

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Speaker 2: they took a slightly more delayed approach and they bought

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Speaker 2: twenty five percent stake in SQM, which is based in

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Speaker 2: Chile back in twenty nineteen, and SQM and now of

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Speaker 2: the world's second largest lithium producer. So these two examples

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Speaker 2: show you how China, moving before the crowd, has given

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Speaker 2: them a secure and stable supply of a metal that's

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Speaker 2: high in demand and It's important to remember that these

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Speaker 2: are only two examples. China has done this over and

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Speaker 2: over again around and around the world, and having this

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Speaker 2: upstream presence paired with their downstream presence at home means

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Speaker 2: that they have ranked number one on all three editions

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Speaker 2: of BNF Global Battery Supply Chain Ranking.

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Speaker 1: So, if I am in the finance industry, I care

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Speaker 1: a lot about environmental, social and governance. If I'm looking

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Speaker 1: at these ESG factors and I'm looking at batteries and

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Speaker 1: trying to assess my supply chain, what are some of

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Speaker 1: the things that really someone would look at in regard

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Speaker 1: to lithium and assess whether or not they are fitting

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Speaker 1: into that profile of companies that they actually can invest in.

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Speaker 2: So I'd say there's three main things to consider when

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Speaker 2: looking at lithium extraction, the first being carbon emissions. So

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Speaker 2: if you take hard rocked mining, for example, this is

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Speaker 2: very energy intensive. It uses lots of large machines, a

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Speaker 2: lot of energy to crush, to grind, and to transport

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Speaker 2: all around. If we move to brine extraction, it's a

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Speaker 2: slightly different problem. Lots of brine extraction happens in very

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Speaker 2: arid conditions and the process uses up a lot of

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Speaker 2: water and can disrupt fragile ecosystems.

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Speaker 1: So the ecosystem and then also it's competing for water

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Speaker 1: use potentially with I'm thinking agriculture and other uses for

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Speaker 1: drinking water exactly.

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Speaker 2: Research has shown that the amount of water used by

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Speaker 2: the lithium industry can actually feed and sustain small communities

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Speaker 2: of up to tens and thousands of people.

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Speaker 1: So it's competitive with other things that may be a

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Speaker 1: more important priority in that region. So then the other

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Speaker 1: question I actually have is around the hard rock and

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Speaker 1: this other form because when you mention energy intensity, immediately,

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Speaker 1: at least working here, I immediately think, oh, okay, well,

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Speaker 1: then what is there such a thing as green lithium

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Speaker 1: And has that been something that has started to come

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Speaker 1: on the map? And what I mean by green lithium

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Speaker 1: is essentially energy that has come from renewable sources in

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Speaker 1: order to facilitate this breaking of rocks.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the short answer is yes. There have been companies

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Speaker 2: that have been aware of the scrutiny that the industry

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Speaker 2: has been under and are trying to prepare themselves for

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Speaker 2: the transition towards net zero and towards a lower carbon world,

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Speaker 2: and switching to renewables is a really easy and quick

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Speaker 2: way of doing this. However, it doesn't solve the whole problem,

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Speaker 2: and the industry can make sure that they are actually

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Speaker 2: combating and trying to prevent these problems as much as

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Speaker 2: they can.

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Speaker 1: So it isn't just investors that are looking at trying

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Speaker 1: to make sure the production of batteries and their supply

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Speaker 1: chains are the best possible that they can be from

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Speaker 1: environmental standards standpoint. There are also policy makers various parts

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Speaker 1: of the world that certainly must be looking at this.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, Dana, and at the end of twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty two, the EU agreed the battery part of the

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Speaker 3: Green New Deal, which forces in fact batteries old in

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Speaker 3: the European Union to meet certain requirements. One of the

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Speaker 3: key requirements is a carbon footprint target. Now we're still

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Speaker 3: waiting for the European Union Commission and other members of

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Speaker 3: European policymakers to give exact numbers on what these targets

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Speaker 3: will be, but we know that over the next few

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Speaker 3: years these targets will be coming in and forcing batteries

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Speaker 3: sold within the EU to meet these targets.

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Speaker 2: And it might also be worth mentioning on top of

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Speaker 2: that that the EU announced the Critical Raw Materials Act

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Speaker 2: back in March twenty twenty three, and within that these

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Speaker 2: sustainability ambitions also went upstream. So they are looking to

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Speaker 2: try and create a benchmark where industry has to meet

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Speaker 2: a certain level of sustainability of the materials they produce

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Speaker 2: and they can be ranked against each other.

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Speaker 1: Give me an idea for the types of companies that

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Speaker 1: are actually involved in this space. Is lithium just part

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Speaker 1: of a portfolio of many other medals that company might

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Speaker 1: be mining, or are these quite specific pure play miners

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Speaker 1: that are really looking at this in a more exclusive capacity.

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Speaker 2: So what we see is that the majority of the

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Speaker 2: top ten lithium producers are exclusively into lithium. So the

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Speaker 2: top two that I mentioned already, the first being album

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Speaker 2: Mar which is American based, and the second being SQM,

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Speaker 2: which is based in Chile. Then you also have the

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Speaker 2: Chinese players Gamfeng and Tianchi, as well as Pilbra in Australia.

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Speaker 2: So they're scattered all around the world. But what is

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Speaker 2: quite unique about lithium is there's lots of smaller players

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Speaker 2: that are looking to get involved, and I think this

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Speaker 2: is because the market is just finding its feet, so

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Speaker 2: it's establishing itself and with this is coming lots of

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Speaker 2: smaller players that are contributing positively to the demand and

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Speaker 2: supply of lithium.

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Speaker 1: So that would mean that these are predominantly fairly new

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Speaker 1: companies that may not have existed or at least not

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Speaker 1: existed in their current form twenty plus years ago.

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Speaker 2: In some cases yes, but in cases of the big

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Speaker 2: players such as Albama and SQM, historically there were actually

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Speaker 2: chemicals companies and what we've seen them do is we've

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Speaker 2: seen them tailor their expertise towards an emerging demand.

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Speaker 1: So this has been a pivot for these companies. And

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Speaker 1: then I guess that begs the quest and if we're

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Speaker 1: seeing increased demand going forward, are there other companies that

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Speaker 1: look to be pivoting into that space right now?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 2: I think about that question as metals and minor analysts,

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Speaker 2: I will automatically think of the major diversified miners, so

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Speaker 2: the glen cores, the bhps, the valleys, the Anglo Americans,

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Speaker 2: and surprisingly we haven't actually seen a lot of these

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Speaker 2: companies pivot towards lithium apart from one Rio Tinto, who

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Speaker 2: back in twenty twenty one purchased the Ricon mine in

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Speaker 2: Argentina and recently reinforced their position as the only diversified

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Speaker 2: miner to be interested in lithium earlier in August by

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Speaker 2: investing into Rwanda. So I think the main reason that

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Speaker 2: these other big miners aren't that interested in lithium is

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Speaker 2: because firstly, they have other battery metals in their portfolio.

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Speaker 2: So a lot of these companies have copper, aluminium, nickel, cobalt, manganese,

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Speaker 2: which will all benefit and grow in demand thanks to

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Speaker 2: the lithium iron battery boom. I think because lithium's only

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Speaker 2: sort of gotten big over the past five six years,

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Speaker 2: it means that it's still quite a high risk area.

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Speaker 2: And though high risk can equal high reward, some of

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Speaker 2: these big miners have too much on their plate and

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Speaker 2: have too much on the line to sort of just

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Speaker 2: take these dramatic steps and venture into a space where

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Speaker 2: it is still a bit of the unknown.

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Speaker 1: And is it high risk because of pricing volatility?

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Speaker 2: Put simply, I would say yes. If we look at

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Speaker 2: the prices over the past two years, we've seen them

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Speaker 2: go from around fifteen sixteen thousand dollars per ton in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty one, to over seventy thousand dollars per ton

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Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two, and now in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 2: As of a few weeks ago, it was at twenty

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Speaker 2: six thousand per ton. So this constant up and down,

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Speaker 2: unpredictability and volatility does equate to high risk in the

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Speaker 2: mining world.

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Speaker 1: I could certainly see how this would be something that

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Speaker 1: traders would be watching closely, but then the volatility for

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Speaker 1: the companies is maybe less appealing. When it comes to lithium,

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Speaker 1: there does seem to be, though this four trajectory, that

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Speaker 1: demand is going to increase, and we've brought that up

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Speaker 1: a few times on this show. So it seems like, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's look at the future for lithium. It seems reasonably sunny.

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Speaker 1: But early on in the show, Andy, you reference that

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Speaker 1: there might be other technologies that could be nipping on

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Speaker 1: its heels, reducing the global demand for lithium and potentially

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Speaker 1: preserving water and carbon emissions. What are the other technologies

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Speaker 1: that you would say are on the edge from a

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Speaker 1: battery standpoint that could give lithium a run for its money.

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Speaker 3: So, as I mentioned earlier, sodium mine is one of

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Speaker 3: the key technologies which is competing for some market share

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Speaker 3: at least in the near future, versus traditional lithium ion batteries.

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Speaker 3: There are other battery technologies which may be relevant, for example,

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Speaker 3: energy storage projects like flow batteries, something that we've seen

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Speaker 3: sort of growing industry for in China. But there's also

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Speaker 3: within lithium iine batteries there are a range of different

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Speaker 3: chemistries which are constantly competing for.

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Speaker 1: Market share, all optimizing certain metals over the others. But

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Speaker 1: you brought up sodium ion in particular, So what are

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Speaker 1: some of the pros and cons. Let's start with the pros.

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Speaker 1: What are the prose of a sodium ion battery and

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Speaker 1: why might it have a rosy future?

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Speaker 3: So sodiumne batteries the main prose that they don't contain lithium.

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Speaker 3: As Elia has already mentioned, lithium has had a really

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Speaker 3: volatile time in the commodity markets over the last couple

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Speaker 3: of years, and sodium is much more abundant, it's much

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Speaker 3: more geographically diverse with respect to where you can find it,

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Speaker 3: and it's much cheaper as a consequence. So the main

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Speaker 3: benefit is a cost benefit because it doesn't contain lithium.

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Speaker 1: Wow. So it's literally the lithium ion part that makes it.

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Speaker 1: It's the lithium. So when it comes to the sodium

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Speaker 1: ion batteries, now, what are some of the drawbacks and

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Speaker 1: why are they not already everywhere that we turn, and

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Speaker 1: why are we not having the show lead with sodium

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Speaker 1: ion batteries.

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Speaker 3: Sodium mine batteries have a lower energy density, So this

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Speaker 3: means that you can store less energy in the same

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Speaker 3: amount of space or the same amount of mass, and

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Speaker 3: this means that if you're putting them in an electric car,

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Speaker 3: for example, the number of miles or kilometers that you

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Speaker 3: can travel will be fewer.

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Speaker 1: So essentially this gets at the heart of whether or

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Speaker 1: not range anxiety is or isn't the thing, And we

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Speaker 1: certainly go back and forth on this one. But sodium

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Speaker 1: ion batteries would mean vehicles that just have a very

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Speaker 1: different use case. They're certainly not going to take me

442
00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:11,520
Speaker 1: on a road trip for.

443
00:22:11,520 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 3: Sure, as I say, they have a lower range, and

444
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:16,879
Speaker 3: for some applications or for some regions, this might be okay.

445
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 3: So for example, the best selling electric vehicle in China

446
00:22:19,960 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 3: last year was the Hongyang Mini, which has a price

447
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:24,879
Speaker 3: of less than ten thousand dollars, but it has a

448
00:22:24,920 --> 00:22:27,240
Speaker 3: very small battery pack range of only one hundred and

449
00:22:27,280 --> 00:22:29,720
Speaker 3: twenty kilometers. But this was the best selling electric vehicle

450
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,959
Speaker 3: in China last year, So it's possible to see that

451
00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,439
Speaker 3: a market like this where the best selling vehicle has

452
00:22:34,480 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 3: a very short range could sort of offer some market

453
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 3: share to a lower range but cheaper battery like sodium mine.

454
00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:43,600
Speaker 1: Now, those that are developing these new battery technologies, are

455
00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: they also the same manufacturers of the lithium ion batteries,

456
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 1: essentially looking to diversify or as you mentioned, reduce their

457
00:22:51,800 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: reliance on this price of lithium that essentially is vollatile.

458
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:57,879
Speaker 1: Is that something that they're looking do at these completely

459
00:22:57,920 --> 00:23:01,439
Speaker 1: different companies, and essentially we are headed towards a very

460
00:23:01,480 --> 00:23:04,000
Speaker 1: competitive future for vehicle batteries.

461
00:23:04,240 --> 00:23:08,359
Speaker 3: It's a combination of both existing manufacturers and startups. So

462
00:23:08,720 --> 00:23:11,399
Speaker 3: if you look at for example, coatl, the world's largest

463
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:14,959
Speaker 3: battery manufacturer, they announced in twenty twenty one that they

464
00:23:14,960 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 3: were going to be producing a sodi mine battery in

465
00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 3: the future, and they have made some more announcements this

466
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:25,240
Speaker 3: year confirming these announcements. Also byd and other Chinese manufacturers

467
00:23:25,280 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 3: who are existing players are entering this space and making

468
00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 3: announcements that they want to make these batteries. But there

469
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:33,200
Speaker 3: are startups as well, like Heina, a Chinese company that's

470
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 3: got gigawa hour production starting at the end of last year,

471
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,439
Speaker 3: and also companies like Autras Feradian in Europe and Natron

472
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:40,400
Speaker 3: in the United States.

473
00:23:40,520 --> 00:23:43,120
Speaker 1: So let's talk about some other sources of potential disruption

474
00:23:43,280 --> 00:23:45,679
Speaker 1: for the lithium supply chain. Let's talk a little bit

475
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 1: about geopolitical issues now, with over seventy percent of refining

476
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:53,439
Speaker 1: in China, that certainly is a vulnerability when you have

477
00:23:53,520 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 1: so much in one part of the world, same with

478
00:23:55,680 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: mining predominantly being in Australia. Are there other issues that

479
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 1: need to be considered regarding first of all, sources of

480
00:24:02,359 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: disruption and other producers that could come online or other

481
00:24:06,119 --> 00:24:08,439
Speaker 1: things that maybe I haven't even thought about.

482
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,240
Speaker 2: So, yeah, dependence on one supplier is never a good thing,

483
00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 2: and we've seen issues with that over the past few

484
00:24:14,440 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 2: years with COVID and the Russian's invasion of Ukraine where

485
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 2: we've seen gas or even everyday objects the supply chain

486
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,680
Speaker 2: completely disrupted, and the potential is there for the same

487
00:24:24,720 --> 00:24:28,240
Speaker 2: to happen to lithium iron batteries as well. But diversification

488
00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 2: won't solve everything. If we look at some of the

489
00:24:30,480 --> 00:24:33,199
Speaker 2: key places where we get battery mestals from, there are

490
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 2: some other sorts of risk there, and these normally surround

491
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 2: political landscapes. Last week, for example, in Gambon, there was

492
00:24:40,600 --> 00:24:43,840
Speaker 2: a military coup and this led to the temporary suspension

493
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,000
Speaker 2: of a manganese mine in the country. A few months

494
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,720
Speaker 2: ago prior to that, in March, the Chilean government announced

495
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 2: that they would like a majority stake in all the

496
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 2: lithium projects that are going to come online from then on.

497
00:24:55,760 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 2: Then even further back into twenty nineteen, we saw Indonesia

498
00:24:59,119 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 2: ban on pro nickel from export. So there's all these

499
00:25:03,160 --> 00:25:06,400
Speaker 2: changes that happen in the political sense that could disrupt

500
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:09,359
Speaker 2: and have disrupted supply chains just as much as a

501
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:10,879
Speaker 2: dependence on one supplier.

502
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 3: Another thing to consider, as well as the mining and

503
00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,040
Speaker 3: refining being dominated by Chinese companies, is moving along the

504
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:22,679
Speaker 3: value chain to making materials for batteries, so anodes, cathodes, separators,

505
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:26,760
Speaker 3: and electrolytes. Currently over seventy five percent of manufacturing capacity

506
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,080
Speaker 3: for all of these components is based in China, as

507
00:25:29,119 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 3: per company announcements, and if we look at where this

508
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 3: is going over the next few years, this is an

509
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:36,720
Speaker 3: industry which is getting more and more dominated by Chinese companies,

510
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,280
Speaker 3: and that manufacturing capacity for battery components is becoming more

511
00:25:40,359 --> 00:25:41,760
Speaker 3: Chinese out of twenty five.

512
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,159
Speaker 1: The Inflation Reduction Act in the US certainly has the

513
00:25:46,200 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 1: aims of bringing a lot of manufacturing of various industries

514
00:25:49,359 --> 00:25:53,040
Speaker 1: back on shore and to nearshore and onshore, different parts

515
00:25:53,080 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 1: of clean energy, certainly things that we've talked about in

516
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: other shows. How does this impact batteries and lithium? Has

517
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,480
Speaker 1: there been a move for the US to essentially take

518
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,240
Speaker 1: part of either the refining process or battery manufacturing process

519
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:05,960
Speaker 1: on shore.

520
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:09,719
Speaker 3: With respect to battery manufacturing, there have been billions of

521
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 3: dollars of announcements from automakers as well as battery manufacturing

522
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 3: companies making joint ventures across the United States in the

523
00:26:16,920 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 3: last year or so since the announcement of the Inflation

524
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 3: Reduction Act. However, these announcements and this investment is currently

525
00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 3: relatively limited to sell manufacturing and with respect to manufacturing components,

526
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: as I previously said, like cathodes, anode separators and electrolyte

527
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 3: These announcements haven't yet been made to onshore the whole

528
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:35,640
Speaker 3: value chain of battery manufacturing.

529
00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 1: How about refining. Is that something that companies are looking

530
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:41,359
Speaker 1: to put in different parts of the world or is

531
00:26:41,400 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 1: this established incumbent player likely to continue to hold battery

532
00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 1: refining in their country for the foreseeable future.

533
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:50,520
Speaker 2: So to take it back a bit, the IRA basically

534
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:53,960
Speaker 2: introduces this EV tax credit, which is worth up to

535
00:26:54,240 --> 00:26:57,159
Speaker 2: seven five hundred dollars, and to be eligible for this

536
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 2: tax credit, automakers have to meet a certain level of

537
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 2: critical mineral requirements and battery component requirements. For the battery

538
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: component requirements, it means that a certain value of these

539
00:27:08,520 --> 00:27:11,880
Speaker 2: components have to be assembled or manufactured in North America.

540
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:15,119
Speaker 2: And for critical minerals, it's a certain value of the

541
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:18,199
Speaker 2: crystal minerals in the battery have to be extracted or

542
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 2: processed in the US or in a country that's got

543
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,919
Speaker 2: a free trade agreement with the US, or in Japan.

544
00:27:24,280 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 1: Are these high percentages of the overall.

545
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 2: They came into play at the start of twenty twenty

546
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,720
Speaker 2: three and up until twenty thirty two. The value is

547
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:36,919
Speaker 2: slowly increasing so for critical minerals, the value starts at

548
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,680
Speaker 2: forty percent of those in the battery have to come

549
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:43,760
Speaker 2: from these predetermined locations. In terms of the investments that

550
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: we've seen since the IRA, unfortunately in the raw materials

551
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 2: and mining side of things, it hasn't met or reached

552
00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 2: nowhere near the amounts seen in the battery manufacturing. So

553
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: to put some numbers to it, battery manufacturing has seen

554
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:00,000
Speaker 2: forty two billion pounds of investments since the IRA was announced,

555
00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 2: but raw materials investments in mining and refining has only

556
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 2: seen one point three billion, and this is a massive difference.

557
00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 1: So actually, just to summarize, I would love for you

558
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: guys to just really kind of put it all in order.

559
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:15,439
Speaker 1: In my mind, there's this kind of hierarchy, if you will,

560
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 1: of different mining sources for lithium, and then places where

561
00:28:20,280 --> 00:28:22,880
Speaker 1: well one place in particular where much of the refining

562
00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:26,160
Speaker 1: is taking place. And then invariably we're also seeing manufacturing

563
00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: of batteries that being much more distributed. We mentioned the

564
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 1: Inflation Reduction Act and how that's actually actively changing the

565
00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,320
Speaker 1: way the US look is approaching battery manufacturing. This then

566
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,600
Speaker 1: leads me to wanting you guys to clarify who army.

567
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 1: Does the future look similar to today or the research

568
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 1: that you're looking at, whether it comes from these sodium

569
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:52,160
Speaker 1: ion batteries or for different countries trying to increase their

570
00:28:52,200 --> 00:28:55,160
Speaker 1: mining capacity. Does this look like a space that's going

571
00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: to have a ton of disruption in the near term?

572
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:01,360
Speaker 3: In sure, I think yes. With respect to the technologies,

573
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 3: there's constant innovation. Sodium ion batteries have been around for

574
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:08,520
Speaker 3: as long as lithiumin batteries. Their original scientific discoveries were

575
00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 3: of a similar time, but the lower energy density left

576
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:12,560
Speaker 3: them part for a long time, and now they're making

577
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,280
Speaker 3: a big comeback. And if we go back just a

578
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 3: couple of years, a similar thing happened with lithium ion phosphate,

579
00:29:16,920 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 3: so still a lithiumin battery, but it was a chemistry

580
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 3: that had gone out of favor for a bit because

581
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: of its lower energy density. But high lithium prices and

582
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: innovations and developments with this technology meant that it became

583
00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 3: one of the more popular chemistries that we talk about today.

584
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,920
Speaker 3: And I think that this will only continue to happen

585
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:33,800
Speaker 3: into the future with solid state batteries and maybe even

586
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,520
Speaker 3: other other technologies that are still very much on lab

587
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 3: benches rather than in factories today.

588
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:41,240
Speaker 2: It's funny that Anthy said yes, because I was going

589
00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 2: to say no. So over the past few years we've

590
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 2: seen a really really big effort for countries trying to

591
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 2: diversify supply chains, and leaders have reinstated their ambitions to

592
00:29:54,080 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 2: try and diversify supply chains in a sustainable and responsible way,

593
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: which is great. But if we look at them of

594
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:03,840
Speaker 2: this in the near term, so say the next five, six, seven,

595
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: eight years, I don't envision a massive change in terms

596
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 2: of the lithium producers, the lithium refiners, and the processes

597
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: and supply chains for other battery metals as well. Efforts

598
00:30:15,320 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 2: will be going in the right direction, but I don't

599
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,840
Speaker 2: think they can knock China off the top spot anytime soon.

600
00:30:21,080 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 3: Does that have to do with the long times it

601
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 3: takes to build a mine and to build refining capacity

602
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 3: with respect to permitting and other other sort of issues.

603
00:30:30,400 --> 00:30:33,520
Speaker 2: For sure. So if you look at average mining timelines

604
00:30:33,720 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 2: from expiration to production can take up to sixteen years.

605
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,240
Speaker 2: So more and more we're seeing companies investing into looking

606
00:30:41,240 --> 00:30:44,560
Speaker 2: in lithium deposits and other deposits of other battery metals,

607
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 2: but they're not going to see the light of day

608
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: until the twenty thirties, and those have already been discovered

609
00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 2: and they're halfway through these timelines. These processes include a

610
00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,240
Speaker 2: lot of red tape, and as we're seeing more of

611
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:58,240
Speaker 2: a focus on the environment, some of the environmental processes

612
00:30:58,280 --> 00:31:01,760
Speaker 2: and permitting which is getting a stricter, which is adding

613
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:02,960
Speaker 2: further today's.

614
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: And the rights to actually buy this lithium to actually

615
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: use it in these batteries to be produced in the future.

616
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 1: Have those contracts largely been secured or is that something

617
00:31:11,800 --> 00:31:14,240
Speaker 1: that the lithium industry comes to the table out each year.

618
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,719
Speaker 2: So a lot of companies purchased lithium in advance, not

619
00:31:17,760 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 2: necessarily years and years in advance, but we see off

620
00:31:20,960 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 2: take agreements ranging from about three to five years in general.

621
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 1: Okay, we have come to the water ignore section of

622
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 1: the podcast, which occasionally I throw this in the end

623
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,240
Speaker 1: of a show, where I want to ask whether or

624
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 1: not you the experts who are looking at this all

625
00:31:34,280 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: day are keeping a close eye on something or potentially

626
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,240
Speaker 1: kind of tabling it to the background while you focus

627
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 1: on other things, because you don't think it's quite as

628
00:31:42,240 --> 00:31:45,080
Speaker 1: important now when it comes to these sodium ion batteries

629
00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: and a vehicle that essentially has less range but is

630
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 1: also less expensive. Having just come back from the US

631
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: and driving on some of the freeways there, I saw

632
00:31:54,720 --> 00:31:58,280
Speaker 1: a lot of very large SUVs and in water ignore

633
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 1: sodium ion battery powered vehicles in North America.

634
00:32:02,800 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 3: I like to watch as many things as I can,

635
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,840
Speaker 3: but I don't expect sodium ion to be in vehicles

636
00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 3: in North America anytime soon due to, as you already mentioned,

637
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,920
Speaker 3: the lower range. So this is not in the forefront

638
00:32:14,920 --> 00:32:16,479
Speaker 3: of my thoughts at the moment.

639
00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:19,880
Speaker 1: Where is the predominant use case do you think with.

640
00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 3: Respect to vehicles? I think smaller vehicles with lower ranges,

641
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,240
Speaker 3: so small cars for sure, but then also two and

642
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 3: three wheeled vehicles, so electric electric motorcycles or tik tooks

643
00:32:30,200 --> 00:32:32,360
Speaker 3: which you may find in Asia, for example, which have

644
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:35,160
Speaker 3: historically used lead acid batteries. And with respect to lead

645
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: acid batteries, sodiumine is actually an energy density improvement, so

646
00:32:38,280 --> 00:32:41,200
Speaker 3: it may even offer arrange improvement for these vehicles.

647
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 1: Okay, so Ellie, one for you, and I think you've

648
00:32:43,360 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 1: already answered this question, but I'm going to make you

649
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 1: give me an answer that we're going to have to

650
00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,600
Speaker 1: stick to. Are you watching or ignoring the idea of

651
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:54,760
Speaker 1: refining capacity coming specifically to Europe or North America for

652
00:32:54,840 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 1: lithium dana.

653
00:32:56,000 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 2: That is a really, really hard question, because it's like

654
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: you're trying to make me choose between my head and

655
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 2: my heart. What I would say is, although I don't

656
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 2: see anyone replicating exactly China's success, what we are seeing

657
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 2: is policies coming into place, like the IRA and the CRM,

658
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,920
Speaker 2: like the Europeans Critical Raw Materials Act, that are pushing

659
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: companies in industry in the direction of these alternative locations,

660
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,640
Speaker 2: and with the targets they have in place, and with

661
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Speaker 2: companies that are based in these locations that have a

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Speaker 2: demand for local materials, I think we will see increasingly

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Speaker 2: more and more refining happening in other parts of the world.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So last one in the watcher ignore section, the

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Speaker 1: Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism SEABAM. Are you watching or ignoring

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Speaker 1: whether or not there is potential for SEABAM to expand

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Speaker 1: to include battery metals.

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Speaker 2: So on SEABAM, I think we should shelf it for now,

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Speaker 2: but I think it's something we should definitely revisit in

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Speaker 2: the future as demand and supply of battery metals increases massively,

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Speaker 2: and also until we see the success of the currency.

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Speaker 1: Bam okay, Ellie, Andy, thank you very much for joining.

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Speaker 3: Thank thank very much, Dana, Thanks Dana.

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