WEBVTT - BNY Mellon Pershing Insite Day One

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanibek. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Clobal News. We are live from the

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<v Speaker 1>Gaylord Texan Convention Center in Dallas, Texas, at the B

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<v Speaker 1>and Y Melon Perging Inside Conference. Two thousand members of

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<v Speaker 1>the financial advice community gathered here. There are a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of them gathered around us. It's all about learning, inspiration, networking.

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<v Speaker 1>I've got two perfect guests to talk about some of

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<v Speaker 1>the key topics. Jim Crowley is CEO of B and

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<v Speaker 1>y Mail and Persing. Emily Schlausser is CEO of B

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<v Speaker 1>and y Mail and Pershing and uh. Last time I

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<v Speaker 1>think we talked in person, all of us was back

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<v Speaker 1>in twenty nineteen. We've done some things. Virtually. Where are

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<v Speaker 1>we in terms of the environment, Jim, let's start with

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<v Speaker 1>you in terms of what's top of mind for everybody

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<v Speaker 1>right now. First of all, thanks for being here. It's

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<v Speaker 1>great to see you in person. Tin, Thanks for having us.

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<v Speaker 1>The top of mind is just being back. That's how

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<v Speaker 1>I started off our remarks today. Just being back in

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<v Speaker 1>your room. The energy felt incredible. It's just wonderful beat

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<v Speaker 1>to see all of our clients back here in the

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<v Speaker 1>room and just engage network with them. So that's top

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<v Speaker 1>of mind for me. Yeah, have it for you, Emily.

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<v Speaker 1>I'll build on that. Of course, being back, and then

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<v Speaker 1>I think just you know, last time I think we

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<v Speaker 1>talked for the virtual that was like, okay, what's it

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<v Speaker 1>like working from home? Right? That was top of mine. Right.

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<v Speaker 1>The top of mind is not having to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>that anymore. Although we are certainly focused on future of

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<v Speaker 1>work and how we can have a bit of a hybrid,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think also just the focus on digital and

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<v Speaker 1>so we're really focused on our interfaces, our experiences, bringing

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<v Speaker 1>consumer grade technology to our investors, our advisors. So that's

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of what we're featuring here at the conferences.

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<v Speaker 1>It was well, I want to bring Tim in. Come

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<v Speaker 1>on and Tim, guys, I'm looking forward to seeing you

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<v Speaker 1>tomorrow after my flight arrives late tonight. Jim, I want

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<v Speaker 1>to go back to you because you've said that you

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<v Speaker 1>know you're focused on being back, and I know that

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<v Speaker 1>being back comes with a host of challenges as well.

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<v Speaker 1>As the world does open up and people start to

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<v Speaker 1>travel more. We're in an inflationary environment right now, and

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<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering from your perspective, how you're dealing with those

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<v Speaker 1>challenges when you look across the macroeconomic planscape. What's top

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<v Speaker 1>of mind for you? Yeah, what's stop my mind? Tim,

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for the question. A couple of things. One, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>I've been on the road, like I think many other

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<v Speaker 1>executives for the less several months, visiting offices. UM to

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<v Speaker 1>encourage people to come back into the office. First of all,

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<v Speaker 1>we're in this new environment. Are they coming back? They

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<v Speaker 1>are coming back slowly. UM. And the way that I

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<v Speaker 1>think about it, Tim mc carroll is, I think the

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<v Speaker 1>value proposition for an employee to want to come back

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<v Speaker 1>to the office has to be greater than the value

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<v Speaker 1>that they feel and belief from working from home, and

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<v Speaker 1>that is the magic that we have to create. We

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<v Speaker 1>have to be able to demonstrate that there's real value

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<v Speaker 1>to have a questional interaction and to feel the culture

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<v Speaker 1>and to no one understand what it's like to to

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<v Speaker 1>learn and understand what we all do as as a

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<v Speaker 1>company together. So I do think we're better together right

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<v Speaker 1>than being a far apart. One thing I wanted to

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<v Speaker 1>ask you, and I was from a far watching you

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<v Speaker 1>interview the former CEO of PepsiCo, Indra Nui, who I've talked.

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<v Speaker 1>She's pretty incredible and she's now helping other companies. Right

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<v Speaker 1>when it comes to leadership, leadership has been tested in

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<v Speaker 1>a big way in the last couple of years. It's

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<v Speaker 1>going to continue to be tested as we moved to

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<v Speaker 1>a new normal. Um, tell us a bit about the

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<v Speaker 1>conversation and which up to out in terms of her advice,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe yeah, um, so many great nuggets. One of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that she talks about is the future of work

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<v Speaker 1>and the importance of flexibilities. So while I agree with Jim,

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<v Speaker 1>being back together feel so good and it's a really

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<v Speaker 1>important part of developing the fabric of our organizations, there

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<v Speaker 1>is also a critical notion of allowing for flexibility, allowing

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<v Speaker 1>for the families of our employees to really be more

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<v Speaker 1>front and center in terms of how we think about

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<v Speaker 1>the future of work, so that people can kind of

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<v Speaker 1>lean into their careers while not pushing having to push

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<v Speaker 1>their families aside, and not having to make so many

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<v Speaker 1>of those hard choices. You know what I love about that? Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>And I want to I just want to jump in

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<v Speaker 1>because Emily, I love I love that I've actually yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>especially especially this week. And you know what's great is

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<v Speaker 1>I'm you know, a lot of my friends have young kids,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's the end of the year. They're going and

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<v Speaker 1>catching end of the year school plays and end of

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<v Speaker 1>the year graduations right now, and there seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>this new acceptance in the professional world that these types

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<v Speaker 1>of things are are okay to do as long as

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<v Speaker 1>you do get your work done. And Emily, I wasn't

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<v Speaker 1>seeing this, you know, before the pandemic. Does this shift?

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<v Speaker 1>Does this Is this shift permanent? I hope it is.

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<v Speaker 1>I hope it is, and I think it will be.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it has to be. Certainly, as we've seen

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<v Speaker 1>the labor market titan, it is incumbent on employers to

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<v Speaker 1>make sure that we are really providing the experiences for

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<v Speaker 1>the people who work for us that want they make

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<v Speaker 1>them want to stay in the workforce. Um, so I

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<v Speaker 1>think it has to be. You know, one of the

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<v Speaker 1>things that Indra has observed in her time having been

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<v Speaker 1>retired post pandemic is she's you know, driving around and

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<v Speaker 1>seeing at three o'clock all these parents meeting their kids

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<v Speaker 1>off the bus and they're just taking ten minutes out

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<v Speaker 1>of their day working from home to go greet their

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<v Speaker 1>kids as they come home from school. And what a

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<v Speaker 1>special moment that previously no one in the professional world

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<v Speaker 1>really had. It almost wasn't acceptable, and it wasn't It

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<v Speaker 1>wasn't acceptable, especially for women, especially for women. Sorry, go ahead,

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<v Speaker 1>Now it's encouraged. Yeah, and that is encouraged, and now

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<v Speaker 1>everyone is understanding of what that means, what this new

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<v Speaker 1>hybrid work environment means. Well, this is important as I

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<v Speaker 1>think about all of the folks here who are thinking

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<v Speaker 1>about their staffing for the future, right and what they

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<v Speaker 1>need be thinking about. And I'm assuming that this is

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<v Speaker 1>why they're trying to figure out do I need to

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<v Speaker 1>continue to have to offer this flexibility going forward to

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<v Speaker 1>attract that new breed younger generation of finance professionals. Absolutely, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>you absolutely have to. In fact, I talked about it

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<v Speaker 1>on the main stage earlier today, the idea of what

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<v Speaker 1>we need to do to keep great talent, what we

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<v Speaker 1>need to do to coach great talent, what we need

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<v Speaker 1>to do attract great talent. And at that point, exactly,

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<v Speaker 1>we're not gonna be able to attract great talent to

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<v Speaker 1>our organization or to any work team unless we have

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<v Speaker 1>that flexibility built in. Yeah, Jim has really spent a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of time no good, And I was just gonna say,

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<v Speaker 1>we spent a lot of time listening to our employees

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<v Speaker 1>and really listening to what's important to them. And these

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<v Speaker 1>are the things that really make a huge moment. I

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<v Speaker 1>mean it's ten minutes and it really changes the day.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they always say about a conversations, those moments

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<v Speaker 1>where you don't constantly think about what you're gonna ask next,

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<v Speaker 1>but just let it breathe and listen, and listening is

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<v Speaker 1>just so powerful. I do have to ask you, though,

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<v Speaker 1>an extreme volatility that we've seen, are we being minded

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<v Speaker 1>in this environment? I'm I'm curious what you're hearing from

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<v Speaker 1>everybody that you know rethinking that you know, volatility, a

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<v Speaker 1>bit of it, a fair amount of it is normal,

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<v Speaker 1>like in our environment, it is normal, but not what

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<v Speaker 1>many of the people in our workforce today have ever experienced.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, so this hasn't been the case for the

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<v Speaker 1>last ten years, and now we haven't and it's I

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<v Speaker 1>think really important that we have again. It's one of

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<v Speaker 1>the reasons why being in the office sometimes have the

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity to bring young talent and experienced talent together to

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<v Speaker 1>start of work through the challenges of volatility. Are you

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<v Speaker 1>recommend go ahead? No, please? Now, I was gonna say

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's a good reminder. I mean, this is the

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<v Speaker 1>third year in a row where we've had really outstanding

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<v Speaker 1>moments where we've said, wow, you know that this volatility

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<v Speaker 1>feels incredible, but then at that point it no longer

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<v Speaker 1>is right exactly exactly. If I think we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>look back at this era the last few years and

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<v Speaker 1>just understand that we were pivoting onto so many different

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<v Speaker 1>points and I think coming out strong. And now we've

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<v Speaker 1>got some music. This is all the key notes over

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<v Speaker 1>they must say, um, thank you both, really appreciate. We're

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<v Speaker 1>looking forward to tomorrow and all the conversations. We're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>have good luck with everything, and thank you so much.

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<v Speaker 1>Of course, we've been talking with Jim Crowley CEO B

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<v Speaker 1>and Y mel And Persing and Emily Schlauser CEOO B

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<v Speaker 1>and Y mel And Persing. You're listening to Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 1>Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. My from the Gaylord Texas Convention Center

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<v Speaker 1>in Dallas, Texas at the b N Y mel And Perging.

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<v Speaker 1>Inside conference, there are several thousand members of the financial

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<v Speaker 1>advice community. They are here. They're coming out of sessions,

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<v Speaker 1>they're coming out of key notes. Uh. And it's all

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<v Speaker 1>about learning, inspiration, networking and really understanding kind of the

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<v Speaker 1>next set of trends. And we're gonna have some conversations

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<v Speaker 1>from there as well. And I've also got a Dallas cowboy,

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<v Speaker 1>or at least somebody in a costume of walking around

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<v Speaker 1>to as not a costume, Carol, it's Texas. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's probably a real cowboy. It's a real cowboy. It's

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<v Speaker 1>a real cowboy. Uh. Interestingly enough, Uh, you know, I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's interesting. I think there's so much going on

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<v Speaker 1>certainly in the big macro picture, right and the FED

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<v Speaker 1>and also global central banks. We didn't even get to

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<v Speaker 1>talk about that emergency meeting by the e c B

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<v Speaker 1>this morning. So so much going on and just getting settled,

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<v Speaker 1>and because he's had a busy day already and we're

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<v Speaker 1>delighted to have with them. With us is Ben Harrison.

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<v Speaker 1>He's cohead of Wealth Solutions at B and Y Melon Pershing.

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<v Speaker 1>On site here at B and Y Melon Pershing's inside

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<v Speaker 1>twenty two conference. We do have um oh, actually coming

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<v Speaker 1>into the picture. Do you want to come on over

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<v Speaker 1>the Dallas Cowboy? Oh? Look, that is a real cowboy, Susie.

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<v Speaker 1>I wasn't kidding. I don't know if he's got any

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<v Speaker 1>financial advice. I don't know. Are you upbeat? Is the

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<v Speaker 1>glass half full? The glass half empty? Uh? Not? All right,

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<v Speaker 1>we gotta do a little bit of an interview. We're

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<v Speaker 1>gonna talk about the financial community. But good, good to

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<v Speaker 1>see you. All right, we'll see you. Gotta get a microphone,

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<v Speaker 1>Carol on the cowboy. All right, let's get to Ben here.

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<v Speaker 1>So Ben, how are you and what's top of mind

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<v Speaker 1>right now? And I think about all of the investment

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<v Speaker 1>advisors that you are talking to and try to address

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<v Speaker 1>at the event this year. Sure, well, thanks for being here.

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<v Speaker 1>So and I actually just came off of a panel

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<v Speaker 1>session and we talked about the future of financial advice

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<v Speaker 1>and wealth management. Covered a lot of a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>ground and thinking about that younger generation, thinking about the

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<v Speaker 1>younger generation, and actually here at Insight, we have a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of really cool experiences for the next generation. We've

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<v Speaker 1>got a student center where we have around here. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>we have over uh twelve universities participating, over sixty five

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<v Speaker 1>students that are enrolled in CFP programs focused on financial planning.

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<v Speaker 1>They're going to come into this profession and be that

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<v Speaker 1>next generation of leadership. We also have a next Leadership

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<v Speaker 1>Forum that we're hosting for advisory firms to send their

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<v Speaker 1>next gen leaders. We've got a cohort of those individuals

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<v Speaker 1>that we meet with on a regular time, sometimes in person,

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<v Speaker 1>sometimes remotely. But it's great to be back in person here.

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<v Speaker 1>It's great to have be back in person. Tim. Come

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<v Speaker 1>on into the conversation. Tim, my co host, is going

0:11:07.160 --> 0:11:09.320
<v Speaker 1>to be joining us tomorrow. He's actually at Zoo, but

0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:11.120
<v Speaker 1>you'll hear him in your ear. Okay, Ben, good to

0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:13.120
<v Speaker 1>have you with us, Thanks for joining us. I'm wondering

0:11:13.400 --> 0:11:16.080
<v Speaker 1>what the younger generation is looking for. What are the

0:11:16.120 --> 0:11:20.080
<v Speaker 1>differences in attracting the next group of talent, Like, what

0:11:20.120 --> 0:11:22.280
<v Speaker 1>do you have to do differently to make sure that

0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:25.240
<v Speaker 1>they thrive in the industry? You really have to give

0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:28.760
<v Speaker 1>him a purpose, right, it's um it's a different industry

0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:33.280
<v Speaker 1>and it's a different um uh you know, challenge for

0:11:33.320 --> 0:11:36.439
<v Speaker 1>all of us to think about how we can recruit

0:11:37.040 --> 0:11:41.240
<v Speaker 1>new talent into this market. Uh. And it's such a

0:11:41.440 --> 0:11:45.120
<v Speaker 1>rewarding profession. Actually, you get to spend time with people,

0:11:45.720 --> 0:11:49.880
<v Speaker 1>You get to impact their lives, You get to uh

0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:55.800
<v Speaker 1>really get very deep in terms of uh into the

0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:59.600
<v Speaker 1>minds of what makes people tick and moves them. And

0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.200
<v Speaker 1>if you think about financial planning and financial advice, it's

0:12:03.280 --> 0:12:08.280
<v Speaker 1>really less about the money and more about how people

0:12:08.440 --> 0:12:12.080
<v Speaker 1>feel about the impact of their lives. So so I

0:12:12.120 --> 0:12:14.640
<v Speaker 1>think that you need to draw young people in by

0:12:14.640 --> 0:12:19.240
<v Speaker 1>sharing that it's not all about uh money in sales

0:12:19.720 --> 0:12:23.160
<v Speaker 1>and what we'll like in the in the past. Right,

0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:25.400
<v Speaker 1>what's what's top of mind? I was video press release

0:12:25.760 --> 0:12:28.680
<v Speaker 1>att yesterday about Insight, and it quoted you saying the

0:12:28.720 --> 0:12:31.960
<v Speaker 1>next generation of talent has the power to reshape our industry.

0:12:32.240 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 1>What did we all get ready for in terms of

0:12:34.000 --> 0:12:37.640
<v Speaker 1>that reshaping? Yeah, actually, it's uh, it's interesting that the

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:42.079
<v Speaker 1>financial services marketplace actually has a better perception now than

0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.920
<v Speaker 1>we've had in the past. But we still have a

0:12:45.040 --> 0:12:49.840
<v Speaker 1>lot of work to do in order to change the demographics.

0:12:49.840 --> 0:12:52.400
<v Speaker 1>If still I mean we're investing in the next gen

0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.440
<v Speaker 1>and also in diversity, equity and inclusion, and if you

0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:58.080
<v Speaker 1>look around at the participants at the conference, it's still

0:12:58.120 --> 0:13:00.600
<v Speaker 1>doesn't look the way that we want it to. Um.

0:13:00.720 --> 0:13:04.680
<v Speaker 1>So uh, the next gen leaders can really focus on

0:13:05.000 --> 0:13:09.800
<v Speaker 1>being very intentional about what the workplace of the future

0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.640
<v Speaker 1>looks like, how to serve clients in a new and

0:13:12.679 --> 0:13:17.720
<v Speaker 1>innovative way. Uh, what their fellow coworkers are gonna look like,

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:22.679
<v Speaker 1>and and diversity of perspective and diversity of of background,

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.720
<v Speaker 1>and how they can really uh change and reshape the

0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:30.880
<v Speaker 1>way reimagine, as we're saying here at Insight, what what

0:13:30.920 --> 0:13:32.720
<v Speaker 1>the industry looks like. Well, I feel like this all

0:13:32.760 --> 0:13:35.040
<v Speaker 1>fits into a panameny to more about the future of money.

0:13:35.080 --> 0:13:37.880
<v Speaker 1>So looking forward to it, um technology tell me about

0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:41.400
<v Speaker 1>the role of technology, whether it's defy, whether it's blockchain.

0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:44.440
<v Speaker 1>How do you think about it? Well, technology should at

0:13:45.240 --> 0:13:48.760
<v Speaker 1>Technology is so critical to the way in which advice

0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:53.800
<v Speaker 1>is delivered. And we've seen a an evolution of technology

0:13:54.200 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 1>really over the last several years. And in the last decade,

0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:02.080
<v Speaker 1>we've seen so many finn tech companies, wealth tech companies

0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:05.600
<v Speaker 1>come into the space, uh in really giving tools for

0:14:05.640 --> 0:14:07.880
<v Speaker 1>advisors to be able to scale their business, to be

0:14:07.920 --> 0:14:10.480
<v Speaker 1>able to serve their clients much more effectively. And if

0:14:10.480 --> 0:14:13.120
<v Speaker 1>you think about what we've just gone through, uh in

0:14:13.200 --> 0:14:16.680
<v Speaker 1>the last um two years during the pandemic, it's really

0:14:16.679 --> 0:14:21.640
<v Speaker 1>accelerated the digitization and the way in which investors are

0:14:21.680 --> 0:14:25.880
<v Speaker 1>comfortable engaging with their financial professionals in terms of e

0:14:26.080 --> 0:14:31.080
<v Speaker 1>signature and you know, a paperless environment. We we declared

0:14:31.120 --> 0:14:33.680
<v Speaker 1>here at Insight we're going paper free in twenty three.

0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:36.520
<v Speaker 1>Don't look at my papers, papers all over the desk

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:38.720
<v Speaker 1>care beause we got to clean that up a little bit.

0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:40.840
<v Speaker 1>But are you serious? Is that? Where is that where

0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.840
<v Speaker 1>we're going? Oh? Absolutely, uh? In terms of the way

0:14:43.880 --> 0:14:48.720
<v Speaker 1>in which uh, the entire UH financial advice spectrum is

0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.480
<v Speaker 1>going to be uh you know, invested in and evolve

0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.040
<v Speaker 1>over time. Is really we're gonna go to a paper

0:14:55.040 --> 0:14:58.640
<v Speaker 1>free environment. Now, Uh, there's gonna be a need for

0:14:58.840 --> 0:15:01.320
<v Speaker 1>tools and solutions to be able to have that all

0:15:01.400 --> 0:15:04.720
<v Speaker 1>digital right, to be able to have a collaborative experience

0:15:04.760 --> 0:15:06.680
<v Speaker 1>with an advisor and investor. But we're going to get there,

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 1>all right. Just got about twenty seconds here at Metaverse.

0:15:08.920 --> 0:15:11.160
<v Speaker 1>Do you think about that? Is that something realistically that

0:15:11.240 --> 0:15:13.760
<v Speaker 1>everybody has to be talking about, Maybe not for tomorrow

0:15:13.840 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>or five years from now, but maybe a little bit longer. Well, look,

0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 1>we're doing this interview with one person remote, one person here. Uh,

0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 1>that's a very uh, and we've gone there during the

0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:27.000
<v Speaker 1>pandemic where clients are on zooms, we are able to

0:15:27.080 --> 0:15:29.400
<v Speaker 1>instead of flying all over the country, we're able to

0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:33.360
<v Speaker 1>meet with our clients on a very regular basis. But

0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:36.720
<v Speaker 1>nothing replaces an in person meeting either. But you're right,

0:15:36.800 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 1>but it does give us another tool to play with

0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:40.720
<v Speaker 1>Ben Harrison over at B and Y mel and Persian.

0:15:40.760 --> 0:15:46.480
<v Speaker 1>Thank you. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

0:15:46.720 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. It

0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:53.640
<v Speaker 1>is all about the FED. You know that the latest

0:15:53.680 --> 0:15:56.560
<v Speaker 1>decision now nearly two and a half years old, and

0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 1>you can find this next story online of Bloomberg dot

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:02.960
<v Speaker 1>COM's Business Week, also on the Bloomberg terminal. Tim It's

0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:06.120
<v Speaker 1>how the FED has tried to protect main Street main

0:16:06.160 --> 0:16:09.400
<v Speaker 1>Street specifically, and now how everyone as a result may suffer.

0:16:09.840 --> 0:16:12.880
<v Speaker 1>Ed Harrison, his senior markets editor at Bloomberg News. He

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.840
<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from Washington. Check out his story.

0:16:15.920 --> 0:16:18.880
<v Speaker 1>It's available on the Bloomberg Terminal and at bloomberg dot

0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.040
<v Speaker 1>com slash Business this week, it's called the FED tried

0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.920
<v Speaker 1>to protect main Street. Now everyone may suffer? And I

0:16:23.920 --> 0:16:27.560
<v Speaker 1>want to I want to start with the the headline there.

0:16:28.480 --> 0:16:30.640
<v Speaker 1>What do you how historically has the FED tried to

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:33.680
<v Speaker 1>protect main Street and why is that not necessarily working

0:16:33.760 --> 0:16:37.720
<v Speaker 1>right now? Well, actually, the Fed hasn't and and by

0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.800
<v Speaker 1>the way, thank you Caroline, Tim, good to talk to you. Um,

0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:44.680
<v Speaker 1>they haven't really tried historically to protect the main Street,

0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.360
<v Speaker 1>at least for the last forty years. What happened is

0:16:47.480 --> 0:16:51.120
<v Speaker 1>that in the seventies, when we had our last inflation shot,

0:16:51.640 --> 0:16:55.800
<v Speaker 1>there was a dreaded wage price spiral that people believe

0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:58.640
<v Speaker 1>Paul Vocal was able to stamp out. And since then

0:16:59.280 --> 0:17:04.240
<v Speaker 1>they've sort of, you know, preemptively hyped rates at the

0:17:04.480 --> 0:17:06.479
<v Speaker 1>end of every cycle, and so people who are just

0:17:06.600 --> 0:17:09.840
<v Speaker 1>getting onto the employment ladder at the end of cycles

0:17:10.320 --> 0:17:14.520
<v Speaker 1>were stopped out, you know, they were left behind. And

0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:16.760
<v Speaker 1>then we had the Great Financial Crisis, which was a

0:17:16.800 --> 0:17:20.240
<v Speaker 1>trauma for everyone, and we had to bailout for Wall Streels.

0:17:20.480 --> 0:17:23.040
<v Speaker 1>So there was a sense in which the FED actually

0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:27.040
<v Speaker 1>wasn't working for the Main Street And they've changed that

0:17:27.119 --> 0:17:30.440
<v Speaker 1>approach to become more inclusive. Their staff and has become

0:17:30.440 --> 0:17:34.640
<v Speaker 1>more inclusive. They've tried to lengthen business cycles on purpose

0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:38.080
<v Speaker 1>in order to make it more inclusive, but unfortunately they

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:44.000
<v Speaker 1>ran into the buzz Stoll called inflation. Right, So, I mean,

0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:46.040
<v Speaker 1>I love how your story reads, to be quite honest

0:17:46.080 --> 0:17:48.399
<v Speaker 1>with you. You know that in terms of what happened

0:17:48.440 --> 0:17:51.080
<v Speaker 1>during the financial crisis, right, I mean Wall Street was

0:17:51.119 --> 0:17:53.280
<v Speaker 1>protected for the most part, minus leaning in a few

0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:57.240
<v Speaker 1>other firms. Um, but Main Street felt it felt it

0:17:57.320 --> 0:18:00.240
<v Speaker 1>so severely. Uh, it does feel, you know a bit

0:18:00.240 --> 0:18:02.800
<v Speaker 1>different this time around. How do we need to kind

0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.320
<v Speaker 1>of think about maybe the fet approach right now? And

0:18:05.320 --> 0:18:07.439
<v Speaker 1>we just got a lot from J. Powell and Company,

0:18:07.520 --> 0:18:10.920
<v Speaker 1>you know, just a few hours ago. Yeah, I think

0:18:11.000 --> 0:18:14.959
<v Speaker 1>his overriding message is this is that if we don't

0:18:15.040 --> 0:18:20.040
<v Speaker 1>get inflation under control, it doesn't benefit anyone, especially those

0:18:20.080 --> 0:18:23.760
<v Speaker 1>who are most been because not only is it hurting

0:18:23.800 --> 0:18:26.800
<v Speaker 1>people in terms of not being able to afford things,

0:18:27.280 --> 0:18:31.200
<v Speaker 1>but it also means that the cycle can't be longer.

0:18:31.240 --> 0:18:35.119
<v Speaker 1>You can't have a long business cycle that is more inclusive,

0:18:35.160 --> 0:18:38.919
<v Speaker 1>that gets the participation rate up. So if he's to

0:18:38.960 --> 0:18:42.400
<v Speaker 1>achieve what he needs to do, he needs to act now,

0:18:43.080 --> 0:18:46.800
<v Speaker 1>uh so that in the future this won't be a problem.

0:18:46.880 --> 0:18:49.760
<v Speaker 1>So to what extent does the FET actually have the

0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:53.399
<v Speaker 1>tools to do that? These are famously blunt instruments, And

0:18:53.440 --> 0:18:56.440
<v Speaker 1>as we heard from Doug Cioca over at Cavar Capital Partners,

0:18:56.480 --> 0:19:00.240
<v Speaker 1>given the supply constraints that are leading to high inflation,

0:19:00.400 --> 0:19:03.359
<v Speaker 1>we're helping contribute to high inflation when it comes to

0:19:03.359 --> 0:19:05.680
<v Speaker 1>the supply chain, when it comes to high energy prices.

0:19:06.560 --> 0:19:10.720
<v Speaker 1>What power does the FED have to do this? Well,

0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>it was interesting to listen to j Pal talk about it.

0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.520
<v Speaker 1>He was quite honest and say that they don't have

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:19.640
<v Speaker 1>h all of the tools. You know, obviously they can't

0:19:19.640 --> 0:19:22.720
<v Speaker 1>work against the flash shop. They can't make more computer

0:19:22.840 --> 0:19:27.040
<v Speaker 1>chips around clogged four, they can't pump more oil. Uh.

0:19:27.200 --> 0:19:29.720
<v Speaker 1>The only thing they can do in this particular instance

0:19:29.920 --> 0:19:35.520
<v Speaker 1>is get uh supply and and demand and balanced by

0:19:35.840 --> 0:19:40.000
<v Speaker 1>crimping demand. That's essentially what they're doing. And he's soft

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:44.719
<v Speaker 1>pedaling that policy by saying, look, we have the Jolkes

0:19:44.800 --> 0:19:48.600
<v Speaker 1>data which says that there are so many um jobs

0:19:48.640 --> 0:19:51.040
<v Speaker 1>out there that we can just reduce the number of

0:19:51.200 --> 0:19:55.159
<v Speaker 1>jobs that the supply of jobs then as opposed to

0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:58.040
<v Speaker 1>the supply of labor, then we can get a nice

0:19:58.080 --> 0:20:00.240
<v Speaker 1>balance there. I thought that was a very good earner

0:20:00.280 --> 0:20:03.880
<v Speaker 1>praise on his part. Is that something we can do though,

0:20:03.920 --> 0:20:07.919
<v Speaker 1>because I mean from the perspective of of you know,

0:20:08.520 --> 0:20:10.879
<v Speaker 1>interest rates and how I'm going to fill up my

0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>my tank right to what extent do higher interest rates

0:20:14.680 --> 0:20:18.080
<v Speaker 1>lead me to not drive somewhere or lead me to

0:20:18.480 --> 0:20:22.920
<v Speaker 1>not use energy in my home? Well, I think it's

0:20:22.920 --> 0:20:25.520
<v Speaker 1>gonna be very difficult, because, you know, it sounds good

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:27.399
<v Speaker 1>at the aggregate level, but when you break it down

0:20:27.440 --> 0:20:32.280
<v Speaker 1>to where people actually need jobs and where companies need employees, uh,

0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:34.480
<v Speaker 1>you get you get a breakdown there. And I think

0:20:34.480 --> 0:20:38.119
<v Speaker 1>that we're already seeing on two fronts a breakdown in

0:20:38.200 --> 0:20:42.120
<v Speaker 1>terms of employment and in terms of business investments. If

0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:46.280
<v Speaker 1>you looked at the business investment numbers that came out. Uh,

0:20:46.320 --> 0:20:50.240
<v Speaker 1>the d DP now figure went down to zero point

0:20:50.320 --> 0:20:54.159
<v Speaker 1>zero percent, showing that they're looking for a contraction in

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:58.159
<v Speaker 1>business investment in Q two and then jobless claims are

0:20:58.560 --> 0:21:02.720
<v Speaker 1>are up forty five thousands on average over the last

0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:07.240
<v Speaker 1>two months. Yeah, I think it's really significant. You know,

0:21:07.240 --> 0:21:09.359
<v Speaker 1>I was thinking about that in terms of here's our

0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:14.159
<v Speaker 1>supply chains, our problems right ed and you know, many

0:21:14.200 --> 0:21:17.439
<v Speaker 1>ways the energy situation right refining, like we need to

0:21:17.440 --> 0:21:19.680
<v Speaker 1>increase capacity, we need to make these investments, and yet

0:21:19.680 --> 0:21:22.320
<v Speaker 1>companies aren't doing it. And this is where the FED

0:21:22.480 --> 0:21:27.159
<v Speaker 1>can't necessarily help ease the supply chain constraints. Uh, if

0:21:27.200 --> 0:21:30.000
<v Speaker 1>companies aren't willing to kind of either amp up production.

0:21:30.080 --> 0:21:33.320
<v Speaker 1>And so to me once again into reminder, inflation is

0:21:33.320 --> 0:21:34.960
<v Speaker 1>going to stick around for a lot longer. And that's

0:21:34.960 --> 0:21:36.600
<v Speaker 1>a lot of pain on Main Street. Just got about

0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:40.040
<v Speaker 1>twenty five seconds. Yeah, and I think that that is

0:21:40.040 --> 0:21:42.520
<v Speaker 1>a big problem. And you know, there's when you think

0:21:42.520 --> 0:21:46.359
<v Speaker 1>about the oil patch, their scarred by the shail bust,

0:21:46.520 --> 0:21:49.680
<v Speaker 1>and I think that the investors want the money. So really,

0:21:49.760 --> 0:21:53.560
<v Speaker 1>the FED between a rough and hardcore. Yeah, if anybody

0:21:53.560 --> 0:21:55.760
<v Speaker 1>knows about booms and bust, right, Tim, It's like the

0:21:55.880 --> 0:21:58.840
<v Speaker 1>energy um as well. Hey, Ed, thank you so much.

0:21:59.080 --> 0:22:01.800
<v Speaker 1>A really important and relevant story. He is Bloomberg New

0:22:01.840 --> 0:22:05.080
<v Speaker 1>Senior Markets Editor Edward Harrison on the phone from Washington,

0:22:05.200 --> 0:22:08.120
<v Speaker 1>d C. Find this story online of Bloomberg dot com

0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.600
<v Speaker 1>slash Business Weekend on the Bloomberg Right. But it's just

0:22:11.280 --> 0:22:14.119
<v Speaker 1>it's tricky, even fed chief Ja Pali say, and this

0:22:14.200 --> 0:22:24.359
<v Speaker 1>inflation stuff, it's tricky. This is Bloomberg Road Journal now.

0:22:24.440 --> 0:22:29.720
<v Speaker 1>But you let me drive, no, no, no, please, I'll

0:22:29.720 --> 0:22:36.040
<v Speaker 1>do the riding revels. I want to drive. It's good question.

0:22:39.720 --> 0:22:43.560
<v Speaker 1>This is the drive to the clothes communing well, Brian

0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:49.600
<v Speaker 1>Dawn on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, indeed, everybody, we are driving

0:22:49.600 --> 0:22:51.840
<v Speaker 1>to the close. Just about thirteen minutes on a big

0:22:51.880 --> 0:22:54.920
<v Speaker 1>bed day. We are. I am live from the Gaillard

0:22:55.200 --> 0:22:58.639
<v Speaker 1>Texas Texas Convention Center in Dallas, Texas. We are at

0:22:58.640 --> 0:23:03.600
<v Speaker 1>the b and Y Melon Purge inside conference. Two thousand

0:23:03.640 --> 0:23:07.399
<v Speaker 1>members and financial advice community all gathering here for the

0:23:07.440 --> 0:23:09.920
<v Speaker 1>first time in person after two years of course shut

0:23:09.960 --> 0:23:12.919
<v Speaker 1>down doing it virtually because of the pandemic. It's all

0:23:12.920 --> 0:23:15.440
<v Speaker 1>about learning, inspiration and network and We've got some great

0:23:15.480 --> 0:23:18.600
<v Speaker 1>conversations Tim set up over the next couple of days. Yeah,

0:23:18.600 --> 0:23:21.080
<v Speaker 1>we certainly do. Carol. I'm gonna be joining you there

0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:23.879
<v Speaker 1>tonight after the program. Here. My question for you is

0:23:23.920 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 1>how hot is it. It's pretty hot, it's pretty steamy,

0:23:27.600 --> 0:23:30.520
<v Speaker 1>it's pretty humid. I have family and Texas into Houston

0:23:30.560 --> 0:23:33.520
<v Speaker 1>a few times. You've got to get used to the humidity.

0:23:33.520 --> 0:23:36.080
<v Speaker 1>It's humid. It's gonna be great for your hair, buddy.

0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:39.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm just warning you. All right, let's let's let's get

0:23:39.480 --> 0:23:41.960
<v Speaker 1>to because it's been a big day, a monumental day,

0:23:42.080 --> 0:23:44.440
<v Speaker 1>and it's interesting. It does seem, as we heard from Charlie,

0:23:44.520 --> 0:23:46.960
<v Speaker 1>the markets taking it in strides. So let's get Tim

0:23:47.000 --> 0:23:49.240
<v Speaker 1>to the drive to the close. Duck Sioka is chief

0:23:49.240 --> 0:23:52.439
<v Speaker 1>executive officer and partner at Covar Capital Partners. They've got

0:23:52.560 --> 0:23:55.600
<v Speaker 1>we're a billion dollars in assets under management. Doug joining

0:23:55.680 --> 0:23:59.120
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Leewood, Kansas. Doug. The headline

0:23:59.280 --> 0:24:02.800
<v Speaker 1>basis point increase from J. Powell on the Federal Reserve,

0:24:03.680 --> 0:24:06.520
<v Speaker 1>the biggest hikes in the range is now one point

0:24:06.520 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 1>five percent to one point seven five percent. When it

0:24:08.960 --> 0:24:11.280
<v Speaker 1>comes to the Fed funds, right. I think the big

0:24:11.320 --> 0:24:14.200
<v Speaker 1>headline though, is that he does not expect moves of

0:24:14.200 --> 0:24:18.040
<v Speaker 1>this size to be common. What are your takeaways? Yeah,

0:24:18.080 --> 0:24:20.919
<v Speaker 1>thank you, Samon Hi Carroll. I thought Paul did a

0:24:20.920 --> 0:24:23.360
<v Speaker 1>great job for today, right. I think he came across

0:24:23.400 --> 0:24:27.679
<v Speaker 1>as right, justifiably more confident in his outlook and his

0:24:27.760 --> 0:24:31.360
<v Speaker 1>path of policy pursued, which makes sense to me. They're

0:24:31.400 --> 0:24:34.480
<v Speaker 1>further down the line of policy transition. They have certainly

0:24:34.560 --> 0:24:37.280
<v Speaker 1>more substantive data on which to base their decisions. And

0:24:37.680 --> 0:24:40.359
<v Speaker 1>right that quote that you just mentioned him do not

0:24:40.440 --> 0:24:43.679
<v Speaker 1>expect moves of this size to be common? Um, I

0:24:43.760 --> 0:24:46.880
<v Speaker 1>think that, Plus he mentioned soft landing is now based

0:24:46.920 --> 0:24:49.639
<v Speaker 1>upon factors largely out of their control. A really important

0:24:49.680 --> 0:24:52.360
<v Speaker 1>points to others that I wrote down. One, our guidance

0:24:52.359 --> 0:24:55.720
<v Speaker 1>is still credible, but it is always conditional. And lastly,

0:24:56.000 --> 0:24:57.879
<v Speaker 1>and this is probably doesn't need to be said, but

0:24:58.040 --> 0:25:02.639
<v Speaker 1>often is forgotten, We're going to react to incoming data, right,

0:25:02.720 --> 0:25:06.600
<v Speaker 1>and in at some point right the market or or

0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:09.200
<v Speaker 1>investors will view the FEDS or what they are right.

0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:14.280
<v Speaker 1>They are a reactionary, data driven policy setting committee, and

0:25:14.320 --> 0:25:17.120
<v Speaker 1>we need to stop trying to game actions based upon

0:25:17.160 --> 0:25:21.680
<v Speaker 1>intermeding communications that the Board of Governors is happy to dispose,

0:25:21.760 --> 0:25:26.400
<v Speaker 1>dispose the spouse when they're on there speaking tours. Doug Cioca,

0:25:26.560 --> 0:25:29.479
<v Speaker 1>Doug Cioca, Like, we know this, right, I mean, how

0:25:29.520 --> 0:25:31.920
<v Speaker 1>many times does the FED need to tell us, especially

0:25:31.920 --> 0:25:34.639
<v Speaker 1>in this environment, Hey folks, it's meeting to meeting, And

0:25:34.680 --> 0:25:37.399
<v Speaker 1>how stupid are we that we don't realize it because

0:25:37.480 --> 0:25:39.920
<v Speaker 1>we're all looking for new trend lines and it's it's

0:25:39.920 --> 0:25:43.440
<v Speaker 1>not this straight move to the new next trend line,

0:25:43.480 --> 0:25:46.399
<v Speaker 1>if you will. So like, I don't know, I guess

0:25:46.680 --> 0:25:49.520
<v Speaker 1>it's interesting. I just think I think the FED has

0:25:49.600 --> 0:25:52.520
<v Speaker 1>to go in every meeting and really look at currently

0:25:52.560 --> 0:25:54.520
<v Speaker 1>their their their hand of cards, if you will. And

0:25:54.520 --> 0:25:56.399
<v Speaker 1>that's kind of what I think it was, was a

0:25:56.480 --> 0:25:58.760
<v Speaker 1>Gina smile Eker. I was writing some notes and I

0:25:58.800 --> 0:26:00.720
<v Speaker 1>was watching. I can't remember who asked the question, but

0:26:00.720 --> 0:26:04.399
<v Speaker 1>it was like why the change in terms of like

0:26:04.480 --> 0:26:08.159
<v Speaker 1>what role did he have specifically Monday in moving the

0:26:08.240 --> 0:26:10.840
<v Speaker 1>markets in a different direction? He talked about that CPI

0:26:11.560 --> 0:26:15.160
<v Speaker 1>print On Friday, he talked about inflation expectations. They're gonna

0:26:15.200 --> 0:26:17.200
<v Speaker 1>look up at all the data right right up to

0:26:17.240 --> 0:26:22.240
<v Speaker 1>that last minute. Absolutely, and again that's why it's almost

0:26:22.359 --> 0:26:25.920
<v Speaker 1>um a waste of energy to try to allocate capital

0:26:25.960 --> 0:26:29.560
<v Speaker 1>around these intermeding moves. Particularly and this was this was

0:26:29.680 --> 0:26:33.119
<v Speaker 1>different today, but particularly when the Board of Governors is

0:26:33.160 --> 0:26:35.720
<v Speaker 1>part of a consensus, right, and and you're part of

0:26:35.720 --> 0:26:38.080
<v Speaker 1>a consensus, and then you speak in terms that are

0:26:38.080 --> 0:26:40.800
<v Speaker 1>taking different, uh, sort of opposing views to what the

0:26:40.880 --> 0:26:43.399
<v Speaker 1>kitty decided upon and wanted upon, which within which you're

0:26:43.400 --> 0:26:45.760
<v Speaker 1>a voting member. So the only voting member I would

0:26:45.800 --> 0:26:48.040
<v Speaker 1>hear from between now and July twenty seventh is Ester

0:26:48.160 --> 0:26:51.760
<v Speaker 1>Joint And I guess we're because she dissented, right, And

0:26:52.240 --> 0:26:54.200
<v Speaker 1>I guess I'm sitting smack dab in the middle of

0:26:54.240 --> 0:26:56.920
<v Speaker 1>the sid the most doublish district here in Kansas City,

0:26:56.960 --> 0:26:59.600
<v Speaker 1>and it would be really fascinating to get her counterpoint

0:26:59.680 --> 0:27:01.639
<v Speaker 1>to can senses that could be very effective. Do you

0:27:01.640 --> 0:27:04.199
<v Speaker 1>think she do you think she dissented because she was

0:27:04.200 --> 0:27:07.320
<v Speaker 1>worried about the Fed's credibility and she was worried about

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:12.200
<v Speaker 1>the FED committing two basis points being off the table

0:27:12.359 --> 0:27:14.960
<v Speaker 1>at the last meeting, and that was the concern. Because

0:27:15.000 --> 0:27:18.520
<v Speaker 1>I was really surprised to see her dissent as well. Yeah, yeah,

0:27:18.520 --> 0:27:20.199
<v Speaker 1>I think that's a great question, Tim and that that

0:27:20.200 --> 0:27:22.199
<v Speaker 1>would we actually would love to hear from her, like

0:27:22.280 --> 0:27:25.679
<v Speaker 1>what was the catalyst behind the dissenting vote? You know,

0:27:25.880 --> 0:27:28.600
<v Speaker 1>I think the FED has credibility, right, I know that

0:27:28.600 --> 0:27:30.480
<v Speaker 1>that has been a turn that's been bantered about of

0:27:30.560 --> 0:27:33.320
<v Speaker 1>late in one of the credibility of better the effectuality

0:27:33.680 --> 0:27:36.119
<v Speaker 1>if you look at what has happened to the mortgage market,

0:27:36.240 --> 0:27:38.639
<v Speaker 1>if you look at what has happened to financial conditions,

0:27:38.960 --> 0:27:40.960
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the w I R P on

0:27:41.000 --> 0:27:43.200
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg to understand that the the mod that the the

0:27:43.600 --> 0:27:47.520
<v Speaker 1>ever changing terminal rate expectations, the set is having an influence.

0:27:47.600 --> 0:27:50.880
<v Speaker 1>So I think they've always had credibility. What they are

0:27:50.920 --> 0:27:53.760
<v Speaker 1>not as prescient, nor are they designed to be so,

0:27:53.840 --> 0:27:56.200
<v Speaker 1>But for some reason, the market has imposed this power

0:27:56.240 --> 0:27:58.560
<v Speaker 1>that they don't possess upon them. Then when we react,

0:27:58.560 --> 0:28:02.119
<v Speaker 1>when we're gonna and we're disappointed it. So, how does

0:28:02.160 --> 0:28:05.760
<v Speaker 1>the FED to thread the needle in terms of bringing

0:28:05.760 --> 0:28:08.880
<v Speaker 1>down inflation still holding on those two percent expectations without

0:28:08.880 --> 0:28:10.639
<v Speaker 1>really giving a timeline. But how does the FED to

0:28:10.960 --> 0:28:15.280
<v Speaker 1>thread the needle bringing down inflation without bringing on a recession? Yeah,

0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:17.679
<v Speaker 1>it's challenging, right, and I think they would be the

0:28:17.760 --> 0:28:21.280
<v Speaker 1>first to admit that they can only do what they

0:28:21.320 --> 0:28:24.359
<v Speaker 1>can do, right, and what they can do is manufacturers

0:28:24.400 --> 0:28:29.480
<v Speaker 1>slowdown to where consumption has impediments and thereby impacts purchasing patterns.

0:28:29.600 --> 0:28:32.919
<v Speaker 1>What they cannot do is control the impact of the

0:28:32.960 --> 0:28:36.600
<v Speaker 1>externalities that are courtesy of the war in Eastern Europe

0:28:37.000 --> 0:28:40.040
<v Speaker 1>and COVID lockins in in China right now, and the

0:28:40.080 --> 0:28:43.200
<v Speaker 1>influence of these externalities on the market is we see

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:45.600
<v Speaker 1>it right now, it's pretty asymmetric. Right. If there is

0:28:45.680 --> 0:28:49.959
<v Speaker 1>any flaw I'm sorry, any thaw in Eastern Europe with

0:28:50.080 --> 0:28:53.480
<v Speaker 1>Russian Ukraine or any loosening of the lockdown, we think

0:28:53.480 --> 0:28:56.120
<v Speaker 1>it stands to have a more positive influence on the

0:28:56.200 --> 0:29:00.320
<v Speaker 1>capital markets and actually gives the said cover to get

0:29:00.320 --> 0:29:02.480
<v Speaker 1>away with some of what now look to be more

0:29:02.520 --> 0:29:05.680
<v Speaker 1>restrictive type of activity because of the demand destruction element

0:29:05.720 --> 0:29:08.320
<v Speaker 1>of it. And it's gonna be far better if we

0:29:08.400 --> 0:29:11.520
<v Speaker 1>see some thought versus if there isn't one, because I

0:29:11.520 --> 0:29:13.560
<v Speaker 1>think that's what the market is already trying to factor in.

0:29:13.640 --> 0:29:16.120
<v Speaker 1>As it said, could be actually hiking rates into a

0:29:16.160 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 1>cooling economy. So how much is within the FEDS control

0:29:19.920 --> 0:29:23.960
<v Speaker 1>given there are all these externalities, Yeah, I mean I mean,

0:29:24.000 --> 0:29:26.400
<v Speaker 1>if you said percentage wise, tim at this point, I

0:29:26.400 --> 0:29:29.600
<v Speaker 1>think that it's maybe fifty left of what can be

0:29:29.680 --> 0:29:32.160
<v Speaker 1>done right, and I think that's what needs to be

0:29:32.240 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 1>factored in a little bit more carefully by the market.

0:29:35.240 --> 0:29:37.200
<v Speaker 1>And as much as we've talked about the stock market

0:29:37.200 --> 0:29:40.360
<v Speaker 1>and its rip higher based upon the interpretation of the

0:29:40.360 --> 0:29:43.560
<v Speaker 1>fed's posture, the real move right today has been in

0:29:43.880 --> 0:29:47.680
<v Speaker 1>the credit markets posts press conference. Right, we actually saw

0:29:47.720 --> 0:29:51.440
<v Speaker 1>an inversion of tens and thirties earlier today that is realigned.

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:54.600
<v Speaker 1>We've seen a widening out of about twelve basis points

0:29:54.600 --> 0:29:57.120
<v Speaker 1>in twos and tens, so for the first time while

0:29:57.160 --> 0:30:00.240
<v Speaker 1>we've seen a bull steepening that's transpired. That in my

0:30:00.320 --> 0:30:04.000
<v Speaker 1>opinion is FED that the the respect that they're longing

0:30:04.040 --> 0:30:06.440
<v Speaker 1>for what had been pulled forward last week and money

0:30:06.440 --> 0:30:08.800
<v Speaker 1>in two day this week is now unwinding a little

0:30:08.800 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 1>bit with the expectation that they're doing all they can.

0:30:12.960 --> 0:30:16.280
<v Speaker 1>So when they say we look carefully at why inflation

0:30:16.800 --> 0:30:19.800
<v Speaker 1>proved persistent and then talk about this uncertain environment, but

0:30:20.160 --> 0:30:22.640
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think we're all scratching our heads dug

0:30:22.680 --> 0:30:26.160
<v Speaker 1>about why we are in this predicament. Like we understand

0:30:26.160 --> 0:30:28.040
<v Speaker 1>some of it in the supply chain and the pandemic,

0:30:28.400 --> 0:30:32.360
<v Speaker 1>but for it to continue to go on, Um, your

0:30:32.360 --> 0:30:34.239
<v Speaker 1>thoughts about that and how investors have to look at

0:30:34.280 --> 0:30:36.800
<v Speaker 1>it now? Yeah, I think the FED is flying a

0:30:36.800 --> 0:30:39.000
<v Speaker 1>little bit Soil Carroll domestically because they don't have a

0:30:39.000 --> 0:30:41.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of fiscal policy cover. And I know it's it's

0:30:41.840 --> 0:30:44.320
<v Speaker 1>silly to go back with revisionist history even try to

0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:47.480
<v Speaker 1>be um, you know, money morning quarterback with the benefit

0:30:47.480 --> 0:30:50.280
<v Speaker 1>of hindsight. But I do think that right there were

0:30:50.360 --> 0:30:53.600
<v Speaker 1>just far too big of a percentage of the deficit,

0:30:54.200 --> 0:30:57.160
<v Speaker 1>that of the definiti of the percentage of GDP, and

0:30:57.200 --> 0:31:00.520
<v Speaker 1>we have historical precedent for that, and we went way passed.

0:31:00.760 --> 0:31:03.560
<v Speaker 1>And I get it was well meeting with p PP

0:31:03.720 --> 0:31:06.400
<v Speaker 1>in the first couple rounds of intervention post COVID, but

0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:09.600
<v Speaker 1>it kept going right and maybe we just underestimated just

0:31:09.640 --> 0:31:13.000
<v Speaker 1>how effective the influence and positivity the science was going

0:31:13.040 --> 0:31:15.440
<v Speaker 1>to be on getting people to re engage in the

0:31:15.520 --> 0:31:17.600
<v Speaker 1>economy and starting to see us coming out of a

0:31:17.720 --> 0:31:20.600
<v Speaker 1>very dormant state. But I do I just do feel

0:31:20.640 --> 0:31:22.560
<v Speaker 1>like there was far too much on the fiscal policy

0:31:22.640 --> 0:31:26.160
<v Speaker 1>side on a percentage of GDP that was that represented

0:31:26.160 --> 0:31:28.160
<v Speaker 1>that definite spending. I mean, did the FED really need

0:31:28.160 --> 0:31:31.680
<v Speaker 1>to be supporting the mortgage market six months ago? No,

0:31:31.920 --> 0:31:34.360
<v Speaker 1>my goodness now And again easy to say in hindsight,

0:31:34.680 --> 0:31:36.560
<v Speaker 1>but I think that's the part where now they are

0:31:36.600 --> 0:31:38.959
<v Speaker 1>flying blind because policy is very unpopular to say we're

0:31:39.000 --> 0:31:42.160
<v Speaker 1>not continue to spend. We need to ask them about

0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:44.120
<v Speaker 1>investors to him, what do they do now? Yeah, I

0:31:44.160 --> 0:31:46.800
<v Speaker 1>mean that's the question. We only have thirty seconds left, Doug,

0:31:46.800 --> 0:31:49.120
<v Speaker 1>what's an investor to do? Okay, well, real quick, because you,

0:31:49.360 --> 0:31:50.560
<v Speaker 1>the three of us have shared kind of the wit

0:31:50.640 --> 0:31:53.320
<v Speaker 1>and wisdom of Ted lasted together before. Right, So here's

0:31:53.320 --> 0:31:56.520
<v Speaker 1>another pertinent quote from from Ted. Right, there are two

0:31:56.520 --> 0:31:58.360
<v Speaker 1>buttons we like to say of our capital that we

0:31:58.440 --> 0:32:00.520
<v Speaker 1>never hit and this was Ted last. So you don't

0:32:00.560 --> 0:32:03.320
<v Speaker 1>hit panic and you don't hit snows. So you cannot

0:32:03.400 --> 0:32:06.480
<v Speaker 1>snooze on this market. Volatility offers way too many opportunities

0:32:06.480 --> 0:32:09.400
<v Speaker 1>for tactical reallocation, where that's growth to value lesson to

0:32:09.480 --> 0:32:13.120
<v Speaker 1>higher quality spread product communities. You have to be uber attentive.

0:32:13.560 --> 0:32:15.720
<v Speaker 1>And then the last thing we cannot do, and certainly

0:32:15.720 --> 0:32:17.560
<v Speaker 1>what our clients not want us to do is panic.

0:32:18.080 --> 0:32:21.040
<v Speaker 1>Stay committed to your long term plan based objectives and

0:32:21.120 --> 0:32:24.120
<v Speaker 1>be opportunistic right when prices availed opportunities that we think

0:32:24.280 --> 0:32:28.120
<v Speaker 1>offer very good long term expected returns. Yeah. I don't

0:32:28.160 --> 0:32:29.959
<v Speaker 1>want to be a cheerleader for the market, but markets

0:32:29.960 --> 0:32:31.600
<v Speaker 1>go up, markets go down, and we just have to

0:32:31.640 --> 0:32:34.920
<v Speaker 1>remember and understand some of the fundamentals, uh, and structural

0:32:34.960 --> 0:32:36.959
<v Speaker 1>things that are going on right now. Doug, thank you

0:32:37.040 --> 0:32:40.240
<v Speaker 1>so much. Dog Cioca of Cavaur Capital Partners US so

0:32:40.320 --> 0:32:43.160
<v Speaker 1>great to have you here with us. Thanks for listening

0:32:43.160 --> 0:32:46.640
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:32:46.720 --> 0:32:48.880
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0:32:48.920 --> 0:32:51.480
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0:32:51.600 --> 0:32:54.400
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