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Speaker 4: Well.
Speaker 3: A significant story that we're following today, of course, is
Speaker 3: the US Supreme Court preserved full access to a widely
Speaker 3: used abortion pill in a case that carried major steaks
Speaker 3: for reproductive rights and election year results. Of court unanimly
Speaker 3: overturned a federal appeals that would have barred mail order
Speaker 3: prescriptions of MiFi pristone, the drug now used in more
Speaker 3: than half of US abortions. Let's get some color on that.
Speaker 3: We do that with Wendy Schiller is the professor at
Speaker 3: Brown University. What do you make of this decision coming
Speaker 3: out of this Supreme Court here in what is an
Speaker 3: election here?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 6: Hi, Paul, I mean, it's a it's an interesting decision.
Speaker 6: They really use the idea of standing. They basically said,
Speaker 6: you know, the people who are suing are not injured
Speaker 6: direct or directly impacted by this by the FDA's power
Speaker 6: to approve this called abortion pill. But that's the moniker
Speaker 6: for it. And so they really stuck to jurisdiction like,
Speaker 6: we you don't have.
Speaker 7: Standing to bring this case to us.
Speaker 6: The Fifth Circuit, you know, said upheld the plaintiff's request,
Speaker 6: but also in their opinion said, well, we're not sure
Speaker 6: this is going to hold up at the Supreme Court.
Speaker 5: None of the.
Speaker 7: Plaintiffs are directly injured.
Speaker 6: And that's the way the Supreme Court unanimously got out
Speaker 6: of sort of the bigger debate about this pill and abortion.
Speaker 6: It is used in the majority of medical abortions in
Speaker 6: the country. So the politics are that the Republicans can
Speaker 6: breathe a sigh of relief because the Democrats cannot make
Speaker 6: this another issue on top of abortion access. But on
Speaker 6: the other hand, pro life groups will now push Republicans
Speaker 6: on the campaign trail to say they'll do something legislatively
Speaker 6: about this rather than through the courts.
Speaker 8: What could they do legislatively, then what would be on
Speaker 8: the docket for that.
Speaker 6: Well, alex I could do a few different things. One
Speaker 6: is they could limit the jurisdiction of the FDA.
Speaker 7: They could try to.
Speaker 6: Reverse the supremacy clause, which is that the federal law
Speaker 6: supersedes state law. Louisiana, for example, has now scheduled this
Speaker 6: particular pill as a dangerous substance, which really limits its access.
Speaker 7: That's going to happen in more states.
Speaker 6: The question is can the federal government undo that or
Speaker 6: contradict that? So they could push for laws that say,
Speaker 6: in this particular case, the FDA overreaches and Congress is
Speaker 6: not giving.
Speaker 7: The FDA this power.
Speaker 6: I think it's unlikely that the congres will do that
Speaker 6: for lots of reasons.
Speaker 7: Having to do with drug development and access.
Speaker 6: But it could be something that some Republicans bring up
Speaker 6: on the campaign trail. But it will only sort of
Speaker 6: fire up people who are really concerned about abortion access,
Speaker 6: who showed their electoral might in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 7: And are expected to get out the door again in
Speaker 7: twenty four.
Speaker 3: So I guess, Wendy, how do you think each campaign
Speaker 3: will maybe approach this issue here? I mean, are they
Speaker 3: just going to say, you know, the Supreme Court is ruling,
Speaker 3: will continue to rule, and will abide by that. I mean,
Speaker 3: how how is this ruling today? I think we'll impact
Speaker 3: twenty four Well, Paul.
Speaker 7: I mean Paul and Ox.
Speaker 6: I think by the my administration will take credit for
Speaker 6: having an FDA and some of these decisions predate the
Speaker 6: Biden administration, but protecting the FDA's discretion and FDA as
Speaker 6: a medical institution, and they'll say, listen, if you want
Speaker 6: to make sure that your access not just to this drug,
Speaker 6: but to lots of other drugs that might help you
Speaker 6: or save your life, you have to go with us,
Speaker 6: because we're the ones who believe in science. That will
Speaker 6: be the Biden message. Trump will be quiet about this.
Speaker 6: He has tried to back away from abortion, really saying
Speaker 6: leaving to the states rather than going for some national band,
Speaker 6: because he recognizes that all the issues that could deny
Speaker 6: him a victory, abortion is very high in the list,
Speaker 6: especially in states like at least Arizona for now and
Speaker 6: possibly also on the ballot in Florida.
Speaker 8: So there is another abortion case before the Supreme Court.
Speaker 8: Can you walk us through what that is and how
Speaker 8: it differs.
Speaker 6: Well, I mean, the other thing is about whether emergency
Speaker 6: room doctors and hospitals have to provide abortion to save
Speaker 6: the life of somebody.
Speaker 7: In other words, to make the case.
Speaker 6: That even in a state that doesn't allow abortion in
Speaker 6: case of danger to the life of the mother, that
Speaker 6: they in fact are obligated to and have to do
Speaker 6: this and won't be put in prison or you know,
Speaker 6: sued for doing it.
Speaker 7: So this is a.
Speaker 6: Really big case because we've already seen where doctors have
Speaker 6: become more hesitant in states like Texas for really taking
Speaker 6: this step in order to save the life of a
Speaker 6: mother for fear of prosecution or losing your medical license,
Speaker 6: for example. So this is a bigger case for the
Speaker 6: actual surgical procedures of a worship.
Speaker 3: So I guess you know, as you think about it,
Speaker 3: just in the context of a presidential election year, Wendy,
Speaker 3: what do you think are members of Congress. Are they
Speaker 3: bringing this to the forefront or they just don't want
Speaker 3: to get anywhere near this issue in what is an
Speaker 3: election year.
Speaker 6: Well, Democrats want to basically advertise in most but not
Speaker 6: all states, that they are the party that will try
Speaker 6: to protect access to reproductive health care, particularly in cases
Speaker 6: of rape. Incess life of the mother, but also that
Speaker 6: they are the party that will not come after contraception.
Speaker 6: For example, there are public and members of Congress, with
Speaker 6: some exceptions, want to really stay away from this issue.
Speaker 7: They really believe that this is the one.
Speaker 6: Issue that could cost them congression, racists, and the presidency,
Speaker 6: just based on what we saw in twenty twenty.
Speaker 7: Two in response to the Dobbs' decision. So Republicans want
Speaker 7: to stay away from it.
Speaker 6: They're hoping the court doesn't give the other side a
Speaker 6: lot of ammunition. And the Democrats are really going to
Speaker 6: hit home with this message, particularly in those two swings
Speaker 6: that I mentioned, Arizona and Florida.
Speaker 8: So considering that the case that we found out about
Speaker 8: today was a procedural issue and that's why the vote
Speaker 8: went the way it went, what are going to be
Speaker 8: the two sides in the Idaho case.
Speaker 6: Well, this is really it will come back to the
Speaker 6: Court's position that abortion is a state's issue, that states
Speaker 6: have the right to regulate all conditions and access for abortion.
Speaker 7: That's pretty much what Dobbs did, and now Trump has
Speaker 7: reiterated that he believes it's up to the states.
Speaker 6: So if states want to criminalize giving a woman an abortion,
Speaker 6: even to save her life. I'm not sure the Supreme
Speaker 6: Court's going to step in and say no, no, They've already.
Speaker 7: Basically said it's up to the states.
Speaker 6: So I think that's the big question mark, and politically
Speaker 6: for the Republicans, this is a very difficult issue if
Speaker 6: it in fact becomes the case that doctors are threatened
Speaker 6: with prison for saving the life of a woman.
Speaker 7: You know, that affects women everywhere.
Speaker 6: It affects women and their daughters, It affects a lot
Speaker 6: of people in their daily life in terms of the
Speaker 6: reproductive health, people who are trying to get pregnant, people
Speaker 6: have a complicated pregnancy. So it really gets to that
Speaker 6: core of voters that rejected the Republicans in twenty twenty
Speaker 6: two in this issue and are very likely to do
Speaker 6: so again if it is the case that a state
Speaker 6: can really prevent a doctor from saving women's life.
Speaker 3: So are we going to end up Wendy with abortion
Speaker 3: policies that really are red and blue? Are we going
Speaker 3: to have that checkerboard in this country? Is that kind
Speaker 3: of how this thing may develop?
Speaker 6: I mean, you can argue, Paul that we already have that,
Speaker 6: and we certainly had a little bit of that before
Speaker 6: abortion was legalized in nineteen seventy three with the court decision,
Speaker 6: And really, when you think about it, there are states
Speaker 6: where it's really almost virtually impossible to get an abortion,
Speaker 6: and certainly for the six week abortion band, that becomes
Speaker 6: very difficult because a lot of women don't know they're
Speaker 6: pregnant by then. We really have a situation where there
Speaker 6: is a slight majority of states where abortion is still accessible,
Speaker 6: and then we have a great number of states, more
Speaker 6: than twenty where it's very difficult for a women to
Speaker 6: get an abortion, and sometimes even.
Speaker 7: In the case of a rape ancestor life of the mother.
Speaker 6: Now, Texas argues that's not their law, that people are
Speaker 6: misinterpreting it, that in fact that doctors can perform this
Speaker 6: in Texas and not be penalized and not be criminalized.
Speaker 6: But the perception is out there that you can in
Speaker 6: fact bring this kind of charge or even I a
Speaker 6: civilian can bring a charge against you for it. So
Speaker 6: it's really deterring women's seeking of abortion in those states. Now,
Speaker 6: some other opponents will point out the fact that we
Speaker 6: actually had a slight increase in the overall number of
Speaker 6: abortions last year, and that's where access to this pill
Speaker 6: makes a huge difference for many women in America in
Speaker 6: terms of securing an abortion.
Speaker 8: Interesting, Okay, that actually really helps to highlight that even
Speaker 8: though it'd be difficult, that's why this pill became so important, Wendy,
Speaker 8: really amazing stuff. Definitely looking forward to having you back,
Speaker 8: wend You Shiller, Professor at Brown University there standing by,
Speaker 8: but nonetheless definitely sets the stage for the November election
Speaker 8: and sort of the policies that will come after that,
Speaker 8: which to me then makes the question, as an investor,
Speaker 8: bringing it back to our home base, what do you
Speaker 8: do about this?
Speaker 4: Yeah?
Speaker 8: And clearly clearly investors are very worried about immigration, I
Speaker 8: mean investors, voters everywhere, sure, very worried about immigration, and
Speaker 8: very worried about fiscal policy. Like France has made that clear,
Speaker 8: the UK has made that clear, India made that clear,
Speaker 8: Mexico made that clear. What do we do with that now?
Speaker 8: If we look forward to the US in November, because
Speaker 8: no one's going to be tackling a fiscal policy.
Speaker 3: No I mean deficit, no way, I mean deficits continue
Speaker 3: to run rampant at the national debt continues to balloon
Speaker 3: as a percentage of GDP. And but quite frankly, I've
Speaker 3: been around a while.
Speaker 9: This is always yeah, yeah, always.
Speaker 3: Been an issue, and no one has had the political
Speaker 3: or economic courage to try to tackle it.
Speaker 9: So I'm not sure what changes.
Speaker 8: It's always the whole like it matters, when it matters,
Speaker 8: it doesn't matter, do I mean at the end of
Speaker 8: the day, And.
Speaker 10: That's what it comes down to.
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Speaker 8: Thirty Alex Steel alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.
Speaker 8: We bring you all the top news and analysis with
Speaker 8: our Bloomberg analysts. They cover two thousand companies in one
Speaker 8: hundred and thirty industries worldwide. And then sometimes we take
Speaker 8: you outside Bloomberg Intelligence for the view on the street.
Speaker 8: Today we go to Christina Hooper, chief Global market strategist
Speaker 8: over at Invesco. She joins us. Now, Christina, I gotta
Speaker 8: say on board now, like we got through CPI and
Speaker 8: we got through the FED. Okay, bonds are still getting
Speaker 8: a bid. So I put out there that we could
Speaker 8: see some significant levels now lower in yields. What do
Speaker 8: you make of the market, What are we going to
Speaker 8: be looking at next?
Speaker 1: So I think next up on the docket is going
Speaker 1: to be Friday's inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.
Speaker 1: Now it might not seem that important, but to central bankers,
Speaker 1: consumer inflation expectations are important. It's part of the calculus.
Speaker 1: If we go back to June of twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: you may recall the FED messaged in advance of that
Speaker 1: meeting that it was only going to hike fifty basis points,
Speaker 1: then turned around and hiked seventy five basis points, and
Speaker 1: when asked about it at the press conference, J. Powell
Speaker 1: pointed to a few different data points, including Michigan inflation expectations.
Speaker 1: So I think it's important, But I also am confident
Speaker 1: that it's going to show that inflation expectations are pretty
Speaker 1: well anchored, and it will be part of the mosaic
Speaker 1: of data that the FED reviews next time, and which
Speaker 1: I think will cause the FED to begin cutting in the.
Speaker 9: Third quarter, cutting in the third quarter.
Speaker 3: Okay, So I know you know at this time of year, Christina.
Speaker 3: You know, every six months, folks that investo you bring
Speaker 3: together some of your key investment professionals, thought leaders and
Speaker 3: think about the next six months. What's the next six
Speaker 3: months look to you, guys.
Speaker 1: So, in terms of the economy, we expect to continue
Speaker 1: to see a slowdown in the US, a cooling, but
Speaker 1: we would anticipate that that's going to be relatively brief
Speaker 1: and that by the end of the year we'll see
Speaker 1: a reacceleration and growth. They'll be catalysts like the start
Speaker 1: of recuts as well as improvements in real income that
Speaker 1: will help consumers. So all in all, a better picture
Speaker 1: economically by the end of the year, but nothing bad
Speaker 1: in between. And we would anticipate markets starting to discount
Speaker 1: that soon. That would mean a broadening of the stock market,
Speaker 1: more participation, better performance from cyclicals and smaller caps, and
Speaker 1: in a more sustained way. Once we start to see
Speaker 1: the rate cuts begin from the FED.
Speaker 8: So but once you see that growth and the cuts,
Speaker 8: does that lead to higher inflation then.
Speaker 5: No.
Speaker 1: I think that the FED has done a very good
Speaker 1: job putting out the flames of higher in inflation. So
Speaker 1: I don't think the risk is as big as they
Speaker 1: suggested yesterday that there could be some kind of resurgence
Speaker 1: in inflation. And we certainly don't have the kind of
Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus we had that I think was an important
Speaker 1: part of why we saw such a big increase in inflation.
Speaker 1: I just don't see that happening going forward.
Speaker 3: How about in Europe, Christina, the last couple of days,
Speaker 3: we've seen some changes in the EU. We've seen in
Speaker 3: France snap elections. We now have the France Germany ten
Speaker 3: year yield gap set for the widest since twenty seventeen.
Speaker 9: Look at you, look at me.
Speaker 3: Gotpad exactly all geopolitical. How do you think about the
Speaker 3: European Zone, because it seems to be some unsteadiness there.
Speaker 1: Well, we try to put blinders on when it comes
Speaker 1: to politics because it can cause volatility in the short term,
Speaker 1: but beyond that tends not to have a significant impact
Speaker 1: on markets. So when I look at Europe, what I
Speaker 1: see is positive economic surprise, and I see the potential
Speaker 1: for more of that going forward. We also when we
Speaker 1: look at European equities and UK equities, what we see
Speaker 1: is greater exposure to cyclicals, so they'd be more sensitive
Speaker 1: and potentially benefit from an economic reacceleration. And I also
Speaker 1: see an increase in stock buybacks coming in both those markets.
Speaker 1: So there's a lot to be very positive about when
Speaker 1: we look at Europe and the UK.
Speaker 8: How can you put blinders on when it comes to
Speaker 8: politics in that we've seen a lot of violent shocks
Speaker 8: in the market, whether it's France or Mexico, or South
Speaker 8: Africa or India, and the market reaction is what seems
Speaker 8: to be catching investors on the back foot. Are we
Speaker 8: learning a market reaction function to the election in November?
Speaker 1: Well, I think there's certainly the possibility that we have
Speaker 1: a significant market reaction in the short term.
Speaker 10: We have seen that absolutely.
Speaker 1: With Mexico, with India, and there's certainly the potential for
Speaker 1: it to happen again. But most investors have a longer
Speaker 1: time horizon than two weeks or a month or two months,
Speaker 1: and so that's why I would argue it's important to
Speaker 1: put blinders on when it comes to things like politics.
Speaker 3: All Right, So if we want to stay close to
Speaker 3: home US equities here, I just stay with a big
Speaker 3: cap growth names that have worked so well for so long,
Speaker 3: or do I try to get a little bit more
Speaker 3: bold here, take a long little more risk and try
Speaker 3: to find some value out there.
Speaker 1: I think you need to be well diversified. And for
Speaker 1: most investors, their portfolios are likely overweight the large caps
Speaker 1: the growth, so it's time to rebalance and ensure there's
Speaker 1: adequate exposure to smaller caps, to value to cyclicals. I
Speaker 1: think those areas will perform better as we start to
Speaker 1: discount a reacceleration in the economy. That doesn't mean that
Speaker 1: the big cap tech names are going to do terribly,
Speaker 1: just means that participation is going to broaden and we
Speaker 1: could actually see our performance by the cyclicals.
Speaker 8: Is that so diversified?
Speaker 6: So?
Speaker 8: And I know you mentioned cyclicals over in Europe as well.
Speaker 8: Do you need to sell tech to buy the cyclicals
Speaker 8: or do you just need to sort of take from cash?
Speaker 8: What do you think?
Speaker 1: I think what's more likely the case is that there
Speaker 1: is an overweight to cash and investors' portfolios, and especially
Speaker 1: as the FED begins to cut rates and cash isn't
Speaker 1: paying as much, there's a greater argument for reshuffling and
Speaker 1: at least allocating some of that overweight to cash, to cyclicals,
Speaker 1: but in some cases there could be extreme overweights and
Speaker 1: portfolios to technology and large cap growth, and it also
Speaker 1: makes sense to rebalance there as well.
Speaker 3: At alternative investments. We have private We all grew up
Speaker 3: with private equity, hedge funds. Now there's private credit. It
Speaker 3: seems like there's a lot of opportunities to allocate capital
Speaker 3: to alternative investments.
Speaker 9: How do you, guys invest go think about that.
Speaker 1: We think that makes a lot of sense. We were
Speaker 1: one of the earliest proponents of including alternatives in portfolio.
Speaker 1: Still believe that's prudent for many investors' portfolios, that greater diversification,
Speaker 1: lower correlations. It all makes sense. And there are certainly
Speaker 1: many opportunities we're seeing in areas like private credit, and
Speaker 1: I would actually argue there are opportunities appearing in real
Speaker 1: estate as well, where well, we're certainly seeing European real
Speaker 1: estate has bottomed, and I also believe there are some
Speaker 1: opportunities in US real estate that will appear as the
Speaker 1: year progresses. Keep in mind that one important tail wind
Speaker 1: again will be rate cuts.
Speaker 3: So given what we saw Christina yesterday from the Federal Reserve,
Speaker 3: what we heard from the Federal reserve. What's pencil it
Speaker 3: in is your base case here? I know a lot
Speaker 3: of folks are trying to get a sense of do
Speaker 3: we have something in December? Do we have something maybe
Speaker 3: even a little bit sooner, but oh boy, we have
Speaker 3: this election. How do you guys think about it?
Speaker 1: Well, we hate to have false precision, but I do
Speaker 1: think we believe the most likely scenario is two rate
Speaker 1: cuts this year. And obviously the FED is very data dependent,
Speaker 1: so that can change. But based on what we've seen
Speaker 1: in terms of disinflationary progress, and given what the FED
Speaker 1: told us yesterday, which is that they anticipate one ray
Speaker 1: cut without any progress on disinflation, keep in mind their
Speaker 1: core PCE target, their forecasts for the end of this
Speaker 1: year is where core PCE is today. So I would
Speaker 1: argue that means that no progress equals one ray cut,
Speaker 1: then some progress in disinflation, which seems increasingly likely, could
Speaker 1: mean two ray cuts. I'm a believer in that, so
Speaker 1: I would argue the most likely scenario is September December.
Speaker 1: I don't think the election is going to change the
Speaker 1: FED timeline. They've been clear about that.
Speaker 8: Christina, really really interesting conversation. I learned a Ton Christina Hooper,
Speaker 8: chief Global market strategist over at Invesco, and that's that's
Speaker 8: the jewel. Right, you get growth, you get cuts, and
Speaker 8: you have inflation coming down, and that leads to your
Speaker 8: cyclical bias.
Speaker 4: At thein the day, it seems constructive.
Speaker 8: It seems like the best case scenario.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 8: Absolutely, Mark also saying that the pain trade in the
Speaker 8: second half could also be led by cyclic goals because
Speaker 8: kind of no one's investing in them because they're all
Speaker 8: in tech and overweight tech. At the same time, we
Speaker 8: did get talked about bonds, but we will in the
Speaker 8: next hour. You look at the ten year down by
Speaker 8: another three basis points where to four point two eighty three.
Speaker 8: That's where we are for the ten year. Also that
Speaker 8: two year coming down as well to four point seven percent.
Speaker 8: As let's be honest, equity market's not doing much.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 8: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the
Speaker 8: news and business and finance and economics. There are a
Speaker 8: lens of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover two thousand companies
Speaker 8: and one hundred and thirty industries around the world. And
Speaker 8: we go to one of them, now, Seali Omas, He's
Speaker 8: senior energy analyst to Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from
Speaker 8: Dubai because something that's been really confusing for like seasoned.
Speaker 10: Oil watchers is what is happening with the oil price.
Speaker 8: You got Brent sitting at eighty two dollars eighty eight
Speaker 8: cents a barrel. If you try and understand what OPEC
Speaker 8: plus is doing of like what the quotas are for
Speaker 8: what countries when they're adding oil back, it is three
Speaker 8: times more complicated than the dot plot. I'm not at
Speaker 8: all kidding you, Sally.
Speaker 10: Do you do you agree with me?
Speaker 8: I mean it's so confusing is to understand what OPEC
Speaker 8: plus is doing that I don't blame the oil price
Speaker 8: for being confusing either.
Speaker 5: Now I totally agree.
Speaker 11: I think the current outlook for the oil market and
Speaker 11: oil prices is that we do have abundant supply for
Speaker 11: now and the demand picture is still quite bleak, especially
Speaker 11: for the second half of this year.
Speaker 5: I mean, when you look at what OPEC plus is
Speaker 5: trying to do.
Speaker 11: I mean, they currently have three layers of output cuts,
Speaker 11: and this is pretty confusing for OPEK watchers like myself
Speaker 11: as well. And what they told the market that their
Speaker 11: last meeting on June the third was that the first
Speaker 11: two layers they are holding onto those cuts until the
Speaker 11: end of last year, but the third layer, which was
Speaker 11: just voluntary output cuts by only eight members eight member
Speaker 11: nations from OPEC plus, they will extend them until the
Speaker 11: end of the third quarter, but starting in the fourth
Speaker 11: quarter they will start to unwind them. And the market
Speaker 11: actually didn't like this at all, which tells me once
Speaker 11: again that what the market is seeing is plenty of
Speaker 11: supply even in the fourth quarter of the quarter of
Speaker 11: this year, and the demand outlooked that's still pretty soft.
Speaker 11: I mean, I don't think demand has necessarily been bad
Speaker 11: this year, but it also hasn't been that great. And
Speaker 11: when you look at some of the expectations for the
Speaker 11: third quarter, for the fourth quarter, is that it really
Speaker 11: picks up in the third quarter. I mean, seasonally, this
Speaker 11: is generally a good quarter, but there's a significant increase
Speaker 11: in demand expectations, and the market seems to think I mean,
Speaker 11: the market seems not so confident about that increase in demand.
Speaker 11: So all in all, I think it's a very complicated
Speaker 11: structure that OPEC PLUS has with these cuts now, and
Speaker 11: they are in a difficult position now where any increase
Speaker 11: in demand may actually be met by increasing supply by
Speaker 11: producers outside of the OPEC PLUS group. So there seems
Speaker 11: to be very little room for them to increase supply
Speaker 11: in the rest of this year. So what I expect
Speaker 11: is that they just extend all the outputcasts they have
Speaker 11: to the end of this year. Is that our market
Speaker 11: anxiety and the twenty twenty five outlook, we'll still count
Speaker 11: on demand being strong, which is not really a given.
Speaker 3: So Slee, I guess when we talk about demand, one
Speaker 3: of the wild cards I always think about is China.
Speaker 3: What's the market discounting today in terms of demand from China.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a big question mark.
Speaker 11: And you know, as you say, China growth has been
Speaker 11: one of the biggest drivers of oil demand growth as well,
Speaker 11: and I think we could be looking at a change
Speaker 11: in paradigm where you know, I think the market may
Speaker 11: have been assuming a six percent growth for China, where
Speaker 11: maybe we need to be pricing in a four percent
Speaker 11: growth in China, and it's still unclear what that would
Speaker 11: mean exactly for how that would translate into oil demand
Speaker 11: growth numbers from China. But I think a lot of
Speaker 11: the anxiety you're seeing right now for expectations of oil
Speaker 11: demand in the second half of the year is still
Speaker 11: being driven by China because we still don't know where
Speaker 11: China goes from here in the third quarter and fourth quarter.
Speaker 8: And that's sort of the problem, Like nobody knows where
Speaker 8: demand is going to go, like it's going to eventually decrease,
Speaker 8: but it's not going to zero. And it feels like,
Speaker 8: as you were just saying there, in lies OPEC Plus's problem.
Speaker 8: At the same time, the supply side here in the
Speaker 8: US and Canada, Brazil, Guyana, it's really really holding up.
Speaker 8: And all this M and A in the US is
Speaker 8: only going to make these guys even more efficient aka
Speaker 8: get more oil out of rocks for example.
Speaker 10: What do we make of that part of the equation?
Speaker 11: Now, I totally agree with you, and I think the
Speaker 11: dilemma for OPEC plus right now is clearly their strategy
Speaker 11: has been focusing on supporting prices and foregoing market share
Speaker 11: for now. Because you know they need higher oil prices
Speaker 11: to fiscally break even back.
Speaker 5: Home, But the dilemma is that the higher they keep prices.
Speaker 11: For their transformation projects back home or whatever it might be,
Speaker 11: for the fiscal break even prices. But at the same time,
Speaker 11: the higher they keep prices, the more they encourage non
Speaker 11: OPEC plus. I mean, as you said, the USHL, Brazil, Guyana,
Speaker 11: pretty soon Namibia. So they're at this point where you
Speaker 11: know they won't higher oil prices, but the higher they
Speaker 11: artificially keep oil prices, the more they're encouraging NONOPEC plus supply,
Speaker 11: which in turn makes it very difficult for them to
Speaker 11: start tapering those cuts. So it's a very difficult position
Speaker 11: for them, I think. And on your very briefly on
Speaker 11: your point on on demand again, I absolutely agree it's
Speaker 11: I mean, as long as I've been covering the oil space,
Speaker 11: I've never seen a bigger divergence in oil demand expectations
Speaker 11: between different agencies. When you look look at OPEC plus,
Speaker 11: what they tell us for this year is that they
Speaker 11: expect the growth in oil demand globally to be two
Speaker 11: point two million pounds per day.
Speaker 5: What IA is telling us is about half of that.
Speaker 11: And you know, when we talk about twenty and thirty
Speaker 11: twenty thirty five, it's pretty common that we see divergence
Speaker 11: in expectations between OPEC and Ia, but for this year
Speaker 11: to have such a big divergence is something that I've
Speaker 11: never seen before. So clearly, no one really knows what
Speaker 11: happens in the second half of the year. As I said,
Speaker 11: third quarter, you know, an uptick is likely, this is
Speaker 11: a seasonally good period for oil demand. But then what's
Speaker 11: what happens in China and what happens in the fourth
Speaker 11: quarter globally, we really don't know.
Speaker 8: See I told you, Paul.
Speaker 10: I tell Paul.
Speaker 8: I was like, look, you don't have to know anything
Speaker 8: about oil right now, because no one knows what's happening
Speaker 8: with oil. So you're good. You're a good company.
Speaker 3: So sally happened supply from our good friends in Texas
Speaker 3: and Oklahoma. Where's the US in terms of global supply
Speaker 3: these days? How does the market discount that?
Speaker 7: So?
Speaker 11: I mean, as we've discussed on this call before as well.
Speaker 11: Last year, I think the US supply growth surprised all
Speaker 11: of us. I mean, many of the analysts on the street,
Speaker 11: including myself, we didn't really see that growth from the
Speaker 11: US coming because you know, we've been talking about how
Speaker 11: a lot of these producers, a lot of these companies
Speaker 11: are very much prioritizing shareholder returns. You know, capex levels
Speaker 11: are not expected to be at pre pandemic levels just yet,
Speaker 11: and even with those, we saw incredible growth in US
Speaker 11: output this year. I mean, what we're hearing and what
Speaker 11: we expect in BI is probably not as much growth
Speaker 11: as we saw last year. But again, I mean, oil
Speaker 11: price levels have been very favorable for these producers, so they've.
Speaker 5: Been able to deliver those shareholder returns.
Speaker 11: But at the same time, you know, increase copex that's
Speaker 11: going into their current projects as well as some of
Speaker 11: their growth projects as well. So I can't give you
Speaker 11: a number, but a number that's probably slightly lower than
Speaker 11: the number we saw last year, which was about one
Speaker 11: million rounds per day, which again, I mean, it may
Speaker 11: not be as big as the number last year, but
Speaker 11: I think it's still a big enough number to give
Speaker 11: OPEK plus trouble.
Speaker 8: All Right, Sally, thank you very much, Seli Jumas. We
Speaker 8: really appreciate it, Bloomberg Intelligence and your technology analyst joining
Speaker 8: from Dubai. It is very much a confusing market for sure.
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: just say playing Bloomberg eleven.
Speaker 3: Let's switch gears here and talk about supply chains again.
Speaker 3: I think we all became someone expert in supply chain
Speaker 3: analysis during the pandemic, because boy did that take a
Speaker 3: big shock. And the question is kind of where are
Speaker 3: we now in the post pandemic world. Oscar Debac joins us.
Speaker 3: He's the CEO of DHL Supply Chain. He's joining us
Speaker 3: remotely from our Amsterdam bureau. I haven't even been to
Speaker 3: our Amsterdam bureau, but I'm sure it's spectacular like every
Speaker 3: other bureau we have. Oscar, thanks so much for joining
Speaker 3: us here. I'd love to get your perspective as you
Speaker 3: think about the global supply chain. From your perspective, where
Speaker 3: are we in terms of getting back to I'm gonna
Speaker 3: say normal, I'm not sure if that's the right word,
Speaker 3: but where are we in terms of moving goods around
Speaker 3: the world?
Speaker 12: Yeah, they're really really good to be here, and indeed
Speaker 12: the view of your Amsterdam studio is really good.
Speaker 13: Actually it's not Poolia, but still it's it's decent. So
Speaker 13: back to your question, what is normal is obviously the question.
Speaker 4: But what you do see is if you.
Speaker 12: If you take the last the last four years, where
Speaker 12: we've seen obviously every distraction and the disruption of supply
Speaker 12: chains over over time, being at wars and being as
Speaker 12: obviously the uh, the the the disease and all of that.
Speaker 12: But what where I think we are now is starting
Speaker 12: to get in a phase where it gradually starts to stabilize.
Speaker 12: But it's also because companies have become far better and
Speaker 12: people as well, obviously consumers as well, but the companies
Speaker 12: have become far better to respond to the unexpected. And
Speaker 12: I think that's also one of the elements on how
Speaker 12: supply chains have now been. Are now manutes far better
Speaker 12: than than not the time sort of companies moved away
Speaker 12: from the just in time part.
Speaker 4: Now making sure that products are actually available.
Speaker 12: There's far more security in supply chains, but also there's
Speaker 12: better of data, there's better the whole digitalization is better.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and indeed supplies are organized differently.
Speaker 12: If you look at how where stocks are being put,
Speaker 12: how it's being spread over the world, but you know
Speaker 12: called near shoring, omnishoring, trying to postpone all of that.
Speaker 4: But you see a change of house supplied to its
Speaker 4: organized well.
Speaker 8: And then to that point, I mean, I was going
Speaker 8: to go with logistics and robots, not you know, future crazy,
Speaker 8: weird looking robots, but just the idea that companies had
Speaker 8: to become much leaner and get better and trim lots
Speaker 8: of fat and be better at logistics to do all
Speaker 8: the things that you're talking about. That's also an investment cycle.
Speaker 8: Where are we in that right now in the industry.
Speaker 12: So what you see is that indeed the industry is
Speaker 12: really accelerated in that perspective. So if you take indeed,
Speaker 12: if you take the robotics element of it, and indeed
Speaker 12: it's not a futuristic thing. It's actually happening today where
Speaker 12: lots of operations, of fulfillment operations work with collaborative robotics,
Speaker 12: where people work to together with robots with robotic solutions.
Speaker 4: And that's one way which is important not only from a.
Speaker 12: Productivity perspective, but also to be able to manage and
Speaker 12: to cope with fluctuations of seasonalities, of high seasons, peak seasons,
Speaker 12: and you see that if I take our own company
Speaker 12: as an example, where maybe five years ago we would
Speaker 12: have zero robots, we now have about seven thousand, and
Speaker 12: that is fast growing further, and that helps us to
Speaker 12: better manage the expected but also better manage peak seasons,
Speaker 12: and also to make a working environment more exciting for
Speaker 12: people as well, because that's the other element, and you
Speaker 12: need to make sure to be able to attract people,
Speaker 12: to be a great place to work for people.
Speaker 4: So that's another important.
Speaker 12: Element on that robotics agenda as well, but that always
Speaker 12: comes together comes together with being better at data analytics,
Speaker 12: because the better you can read data, the better you
Speaker 12: can forecast, make the right investments, but also forecast what's
Speaker 12: going to happen tomorrow, next week and the week after Oscar.
Speaker 3: One of the themes that came out of the pandemic
Speaker 3: was a sense of we've got to shore up our
Speaker 3: supply chain, so that means I guess on shoring, friends shoring,
Speaker 3: maybe bringing stuff a little bit closer to the end market.
Speaker 9: Are we actually seeing that? Do you actually see that
Speaker 9: in trade flows?
Speaker 4: Yeah? What you see is you already have said it
Speaker 4: right right.
Speaker 12: There's several names that has been given to it, whether
Speaker 12: it's now the Assuring, Ushuring, Omnishuring, and then you have
Speaker 12: the China plus one terminology. But what it all comes
Speaker 12: back to is that, yes, there is an element of
Speaker 12: having stock closer to the end market, but there's a
Speaker 12: more important element is that companies don't bet anymore to
Speaker 12: have their key supplies, their key components coming from one
Speaker 12: sourcing point on one continent. They all make sure that
Speaker 12: whenever they now make investments in their next capacity, so
Speaker 12: their next production site and the next player then make
Speaker 12: sure that it is other different continent.
Speaker 4: Uh. And that's what you start to see.
Speaker 12: You see that very much in the semicon business, where
Speaker 12: you see lots of investments in Malaysia, investments in the US,
Speaker 12: investments in the eastern parts of Europe.
Speaker 4: So that's a trend you see.
Speaker 12: Or if you look the automotive industry, the major investments
Speaker 12: that you see in Mexico there but similarly also in
Speaker 12: for instance Thailand, in India, so you see that the
Speaker 12: suppli sees are being spread moreover to actually spread the
Speaker 12: risk and indeed at the same time also be closer
Speaker 12: to the market.
Speaker 8: Before we let you go, you talked about how suppliers
Speaker 8: are looking for the not just in time, but to
Speaker 8: build a little bit of inventory, which leads me to demand.
Speaker 8: Where are the weak parts right now?
Speaker 4: The weak parts in the supply chains?
Speaker 8: You mean, yeah, I mean like in terms of the
Speaker 8: demand pole, like what kind of countries are buying, Like
Speaker 8: what kind of industries still have that demand pole?
Speaker 12: Well, I think overall, it's not that there's so what
Speaker 12: you see is it the demand pole overall?
Speaker 4: Because it was just in a in a different interview.
Speaker 12: We were just discussing about the volumes that are upcoming
Speaker 12: and what you what you clearly see at the moment
Speaker 12: is that stocks are being built up, not to the
Speaker 12: levels maybe that we've seen two years back, but companies
Speaker 12: are building up stock because there are forecasting a certain
Speaker 12: demount poo in qg Q four. Now, how much is
Speaker 12: actually going to be that that we now now need
Speaker 12: to see your question about. From a geography perspective, there's
Speaker 12: obviously we see an increased flow from Asia to the US,
Speaker 12: to to to Europe. We see an uh hesitant increase
Speaker 12: of building up of stock in the US. Similar picture
Speaker 12: in some parts of parts of parts of Europe. So
Speaker 12: that's a bit from a geographical perspective.
Speaker 4: How you see that.
Speaker 12: But overall there is a sort of a a careful
Speaker 12: building up of stock being ready for a sort of
Speaker 12: conservative peak season.
Speaker 3: All right, Oscar, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 3: Really appreciate getting your first hand insight. Oscar Debak. He's
Speaker 3: the CEO of DHL Supply Chain, joining us from our
Speaker 3: Amsterdam bureau.
Speaker 9: Which, again, for those on YouTube books, pretty darn sweet.
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Speaker 8: I'm Alex thee alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.
Speaker 8: We cover all the top news in business, finance, and
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Speaker 8: two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries around
Speaker 8: the world, and for the month of June, Bloomberg Radio
Speaker 8: is committed to bringing you segments and guests that focused
Speaker 8: on the topic of equality, and today we're speaking with
Speaker 8: Ashley Fox, CEO and founder of Emplify. Ashley, thanks for
Speaker 8: joining us in studio. You're based in Atlanta, Georgia, but
Speaker 8: you are a recovering Wall Streeter, so New York is
Speaker 8: still kind of home for you. Yes, yes, what is empify?
Speaker 10: So emplify is the word empower and modify, merge together.
Speaker 10: So I made the word of We are a fintech
Speaker 10: startup that is revolutionized on how adults and children learn
Speaker 10: how to build wealth. So we create financial education tools
Speaker 10: and resources that target the ninety nine percent that Wall
Speaker 10: Street often overlooks. So we created programs in school systems
Speaker 10: and prison systems. We have a membership based at where
Speaker 10: people from all over the world have access to financial
Speaker 10: education the palm of their hand.
Speaker 3: So what are you trying to address Initially? Is it
Speaker 3: just the fact that you're trying to say, hey, this
Speaker 3: is how you invest or? I mean, what's kind of that?
Speaker 9: How do you get there?
Speaker 10: So, coming from a Wall Street background, we worked with
Speaker 10: ultra high network individuals and so when you had at
Speaker 10: least twenty five million dollars, there's an infrastructure set up
Speaker 10: to help you protect your wealth, grow your wealth, and
Speaker 10: preserve your wealth. But what does that look like for
Speaker 10: the everyday person? Because you can't just walk into a
Speaker 10: bank and say, hey, can you teach me how to
Speaker 10: buy a stock? Can you teach me how to create
Speaker 10: a trust or build a legacy to pass out to
Speaker 10: my family? And I wanted to create something that gave
Speaker 10: that Wall Street experience but for the everyday person. So
Speaker 10: we're teaching you for the basics getting your investments started,
Speaker 10: because there's a lot of fear, doubt, and worry, and
Speaker 10: I wanted to break that mental barrier to show people
Speaker 10: no matter how much money you do or do not have,
Speaker 10: where you come from, or what you look like, you
Speaker 10: can build wealth, break by brick, share by share, And
Speaker 10: so we want to make it in a culturally relevant,
Speaker 10: easy to understand way. So we've taught middle school students
Speaker 10: how to open brokerage accounts, how to buy a stock.
Speaker 10: We've been in the prison systems teaching the everyday person
Speaker 10: a topic that we don't like to talk about at
Speaker 10: the dinner table, but it is something that can change
Speaker 10: our family's dynamics.
Speaker 8: Definitely when so for my daughter, we'll be in middle
Speaker 8: school in the years. So I love this program I
Speaker 8: keep trying to teach her if you spend that, you
Speaker 8: won't have that money later. But you know it doesn't
Speaker 8: always think gam when she's nine and a half. In
Speaker 8: terms of people who use your app to help generate wealth,
Speaker 8: what is their income base to begin with?
Speaker 10: So when we think so are our tech platform is
Speaker 10: a wealth builders community. So you can kind of look
Speaker 10: at that like the Netflix of finance, where we have
Speaker 10: over two hundred and fifty hours of classes, tools, resources
Speaker 10: covering from retirement planning, stock investing, parent investing, legacy planning,
Speaker 10: life insurance, and given that holistic experience. So when people
Speaker 10: come in, I would say we had working professionals at
Speaker 10: twenty five, so we are one of our oldest members
Speaker 10: is seventy three years old. So we typically target working
Speaker 10: professionals and entrepreneurs who have some income coming in but
Speaker 10: are financially not educated, financially scared, not sure what to do,
Speaker 10: where to go, or who to trust, and we create
Speaker 10: that safe, like community like environment that teaches them the
Speaker 10: basics again, starting to open your brokerage account, understanding different
Speaker 10: types of stocks that are out there, how do you
Speaker 10: build your strategy so that you're growing your money, not
Speaker 10: just spending it, but you're preserving it and you're properly
Speaker 10: passing it down. So it's more of a holistic experience
Speaker 10: that targets the mind and hearts of people who want
Speaker 10: to invest, who want to learn how to build, just
Speaker 10: don't know where to go.
Speaker 3: So what are I'm trying to think of my kids,
Speaker 3: and I think some of the advice I'd give and
Speaker 3: them is max you for one K, pay your credit cards,
Speaker 3: don't let anything right on your credit cards, pay it off,
Speaker 3: and some of the basics.
Speaker 9: What are some of the basis that you start with
Speaker 9: your clients.
Speaker 10: So one of the things that we do is take
Speaker 10: inventory where you spend your money, Where are you shopping,
Speaker 10: what do you eat, what are you wearing, what gas
Speaker 10: do you put what kind of car do you drive?
Speaker 10: Because chances are a lot of the companies we use
Speaker 10: know and believe in are publicly traded, and we think
Speaker 10: that we need a lot of money to invest, but
Speaker 10: there are a lot of stocks that are under three
Speaker 10: hundred and I We've got trillion dollar businesses that are
Speaker 10: less than three hundred dollars a share that we give
Speaker 10: more money to. And so the easiest way for us
Speaker 10: to do it is to start with what you know.
Speaker 10: I'm not. Don't go research a random company you see
Speaker 10: on the internet. Start with who you are a loyal
Speaker 10: customer to, because it's a lot easier to read financials.
Speaker 10: It's a lot easier to understand a company and start
Speaker 10: there because the chances of you're giving your money to
Speaker 10: these companies. There's a lot of people who are too,
Speaker 10: and so really getting it down to who are you,
Speaker 10: what do you use, what do you need, and let's
Speaker 10: start from there. So I always tell people, if if
Speaker 10: you're going to use it and give your money to
Speaker 10: the company, why not consider owning a piece of that company?
Speaker 10: And you can do that by invessing in a stock market.
Speaker 8: You told us sort of why you came up with
Speaker 8: this idea, how long has it been around, what's it
Speaker 8: been like?
Speaker 10: The whole journey. So I left Wall Street July twenty thirteen.
Speaker 10: I haven't looked back since. One of the craziest but
Speaker 10: most fulfilling experiences. I went on to be a financial
Speaker 10: advisor targeting load of moderate income individuals because I had
Speaker 10: a bunch of security licenses and I realized that I
Speaker 10: didn't want to focus on the implementation. I wanted to
Speaker 10: give the education, and so that's where emplified. So I
Speaker 10: came up with the word in twenty thirteen. We didn't
Speaker 10: generate our first stream of revenue until twenty seventeen. Twenty
Speaker 10: seventeen we got contracts with schools in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and
Speaker 10: in New York City, and then we went on to
Speaker 10: really massively produce education all throughout the country. COVID hit
Speaker 10: and schools didn't know how to function. But the beauty
Speaker 10: of that was there were a lot of adult saying,
Speaker 10: I see what you're doing in school systems, what can
Speaker 10: you do? And I didn't want I felt like God
Speaker 10: put me here not to just serve one individual as
Speaker 10: their advisor. I wanted to build what kleenexes the tissues
Speaker 10: is what Emplify will be for finance. And that's what
Speaker 10: I wanted to create. So in twenty twenty twenty, we
Speaker 10: launched our Wealth or this community platform, which is the
Speaker 10: tech platform that allows adults in over forty four different countries,
Speaker 10: thousands of people to get access to the tools and resources.
Speaker 10: It's been a journey that.
Speaker 8: Came second, yesee, the educational parts to schools in prisons.
Speaker 5: Correct.
Speaker 10: So first we were first we were b to B
Speaker 10: and then when COVID hit, we became B two C.
Speaker 10: But we were able to scale a lot faster because
Speaker 10: we had technology. And so I would say, journey wise,
Speaker 10: it's it's been fulfilling because we've impacted the lives of
Speaker 10: millions of people. We've partnered with community college, financial institutions,
Speaker 10: companies that I used to work for or research are
Speaker 10: aligning ourselves. We're aligning ourselves to these organizations to be
Speaker 10: able to create financial education resources for the everyday person.
Speaker 10: So I could say, as an entrepreneur, it's been a journey.
Speaker 10: I started out with something I wanted to give the world.
Speaker 10: I didn't know how, I did not know what I
Speaker 10: was going to do, but I knew why, and I
Speaker 10: knew I wanted to be the woman and get it done.
Speaker 10: And I think I'm able to translate Wall Street knowledge
Speaker 10: because I understand how the banking system, how Walls Street works.
Speaker 10: But I also didn't come from growing up with a
Speaker 10: lot of money. I'm the first person in my family
Speaker 10: to graduate from college. I was making more money than
Speaker 10: both my parents when I was early on Wall Street,
Speaker 10: and I wanted to be able to take that universal
Speaker 10: language and create something that can make people believe no
Speaker 10: matter what you look like, you can build wealth and
Speaker 10: no matter what you do or do not know, emplithize
Speaker 10: here to give you that education.
Speaker 9: How many employees do you have in your company and house?
Speaker 9: How's that growing?
Speaker 10: So right now we are a team of eight. We're
Speaker 10: actually in the process of hiring three more individuals, so
Speaker 10: we will be in double digit I think that's been
Speaker 10: the most challenging part, the people part. They don't teach
Speaker 10: you that in school. The right people, finding the right people,
Speaker 10: building the culture, having this the resources, the environment. I
Speaker 10: think everyone on our team is phenomenal because they believe
Speaker 10: in what we do. And I think I never left
Speaker 10: Wall Street to make money. I think I would have
Speaker 10: stayed there if I wanted to make the money. I
Speaker 10: really wanted to change the dynamics because you shouldn't have
Speaker 10: to go to Wall Street to get access to this information.
Speaker 10: How can we put it in our school systems? How
Speaker 10: can we talk about it at the dinner table holidays?
Speaker 10: And so we are right now a team of eight.
Speaker 10: I would say in the next thirty days we'll probably
Speaker 10: be a team of twelve people. But we are growing
Speaker 10: fast as a company. It's been an exciting journey amazing.
Speaker 8: This was such a great story. Thank you so much
Speaker 8: for bringing it for us. I had zero financial education
Speaker 8: until I started working in this industry, and I had
Speaker 8: like clawmb my way up. So I'm so appreciative of
Speaker 8: what you guys are doing. Thank you so much. Ashley Fox,
Speaker 8: CEO and founder of Amplify, on her fintech startup help
Speaker 8: regular old people build, well, figure stuff out, really amazing stuff.
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