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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 3: Alex Steel and Paul Sweeney, we're live here in our

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Speaker 3: Podcast and that's where you'll find this.

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Speaker 4: Well.

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Speaker 3: A significant story that we're following today, of course, is

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Speaker 3: the US Supreme Court preserved full access to a widely

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Speaker 3: used abortion pill in a case that carried major steaks

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Speaker 3: for reproductive rights and election year results. Of court unanimly

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Speaker 3: overturned a federal appeals that would have barred mail order

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Speaker 3: prescriptions of MiFi pristone, the drug now used in more

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Speaker 3: than half of US abortions. Let's get some color on that.

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Speaker 3: We do that with Wendy Schiller is the professor at

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Speaker 3: Brown University. What do you make of this decision coming

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Speaker 3: out of this Supreme Court here in what is an

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Speaker 3: election here?

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Speaker 5: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: Hi, Paul, I mean, it's a it's an interesting decision.

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Speaker 6: They really use the idea of standing. They basically said,

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Speaker 6: you know, the people who are suing are not injured

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Speaker 6: direct or directly impacted by this by the FDA's power

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Speaker 6: to approve this called abortion pill. But that's the moniker

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Speaker 6: for it. And so they really stuck to jurisdiction like,

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Speaker 6: we you don't have.

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Speaker 7: Standing to bring this case to us.

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Speaker 6: The Fifth Circuit, you know, said upheld the plaintiff's request,

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Speaker 6: but also in their opinion said, well, we're not sure

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Speaker 6: this is going to hold up at the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 5: None of the.

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Speaker 7: Plaintiffs are directly injured.

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Speaker 6: And that's the way the Supreme Court unanimously got out

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Speaker 6: of sort of the bigger debate about this pill and abortion.

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Speaker 6: It is used in the majority of medical abortions in

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Speaker 6: the country. So the politics are that the Republicans can

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Speaker 6: breathe a sigh of relief because the Democrats cannot make

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Speaker 6: this another issue on top of abortion access. But on

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Speaker 6: the other hand, pro life groups will now push Republicans

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Speaker 6: on the campaign trail to say they'll do something legislatively

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Speaker 6: about this rather than through the courts.

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Speaker 8: What could they do legislatively, then what would be on

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Speaker 8: the docket for that.

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Speaker 6: Well, alex I could do a few different things. One

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Speaker 6: is they could limit the jurisdiction of the FDA.

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Speaker 7: They could try to.

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Speaker 6: Reverse the supremacy clause, which is that the federal law

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Speaker 6: supersedes state law. Louisiana, for example, has now scheduled this

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Speaker 6: particular pill as a dangerous substance, which really limits its access.

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Speaker 7: That's going to happen in more states.

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Speaker 6: The question is can the federal government undo that or

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Speaker 6: contradict that? So they could push for laws that say,

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Speaker 6: in this particular case, the FDA overreaches and Congress is

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Speaker 6: not giving.

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Speaker 7: The FDA this power.

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Speaker 6: I think it's unlikely that the congres will do that

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Speaker 6: for lots of reasons.

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Speaker 7: Having to do with drug development and access.

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Speaker 6: But it could be something that some Republicans bring up

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Speaker 6: on the campaign trail. But it will only sort of

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Speaker 6: fire up people who are really concerned about abortion access,

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Speaker 6: who showed their electoral might in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 7: And are expected to get out the door again in

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Speaker 7: twenty four.

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Speaker 3: So I guess, Wendy, how do you think each campaign

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Speaker 3: will maybe approach this issue here? I mean, are they

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Speaker 3: just going to say, you know, the Supreme Court is ruling,

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Speaker 3: will continue to rule, and will abide by that. I mean,

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Speaker 3: how how is this ruling today? I think we'll impact

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Speaker 3: twenty four Well, Paul.

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Speaker 7: I mean Paul and Ox.

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Speaker 6: I think by the my administration will take credit for

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Speaker 6: having an FDA and some of these decisions predate the

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Speaker 6: Biden administration, but protecting the FDA's discretion and FDA as

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Speaker 6: a medical institution, and they'll say, listen, if you want

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Speaker 6: to make sure that your access not just to this drug,

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Speaker 6: but to lots of other drugs that might help you

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Speaker 6: or save your life, you have to go with us,

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Speaker 6: because we're the ones who believe in science. That will

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Speaker 6: be the Biden message. Trump will be quiet about this.

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Speaker 6: He has tried to back away from abortion, really saying

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Speaker 6: leaving to the states rather than going for some national band,

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Speaker 6: because he recognizes that all the issues that could deny

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Speaker 6: him a victory, abortion is very high in the list,

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Speaker 6: especially in states like at least Arizona for now and

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Speaker 6: possibly also on the ballot in Florida.

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Speaker 8: So there is another abortion case before the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 8: Can you walk us through what that is and how

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Speaker 8: it differs.

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Speaker 6: Well, I mean, the other thing is about whether emergency

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Speaker 6: room doctors and hospitals have to provide abortion to save

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Speaker 6: the life of somebody.

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Speaker 7: In other words, to make the case.

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Speaker 6: That even in a state that doesn't allow abortion in

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Speaker 6: case of danger to the life of the mother, that

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Speaker 6: they in fact are obligated to and have to do

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Speaker 6: this and won't be put in prison or you know,

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Speaker 6: sued for doing it.

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Speaker 7: So this is a.

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Speaker 6: Really big case because we've already seen where doctors have

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Speaker 6: become more hesitant in states like Texas for really taking

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Speaker 6: this step in order to save the life of a

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Speaker 6: mother for fear of prosecution or losing your medical license,

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Speaker 6: for example. So this is a bigger case for the

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Speaker 6: actual surgical procedures of a worship.

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Speaker 3: So I guess you know, as you think about it,

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Speaker 3: just in the context of a presidential election year, Wendy,

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Speaker 3: what do you think are members of Congress. Are they

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Speaker 3: bringing this to the forefront or they just don't want

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Speaker 3: to get anywhere near this issue in what is an

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Speaker 3: election year.

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Speaker 6: Well, Democrats want to basically advertise in most but not

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Speaker 6: all states, that they are the party that will try

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Speaker 6: to protect access to reproductive health care, particularly in cases

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Speaker 6: of rape. Incess life of the mother, but also that

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Speaker 6: they are the party that will not come after contraception.

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Speaker 6: For example, there are public and members of Congress, with

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Speaker 6: some exceptions, want to really stay away from this issue.

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Speaker 7: They really believe that this is the one.

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Speaker 6: Issue that could cost them congression, racists, and the presidency,

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Speaker 6: just based on what we saw in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 7: Two in response to the Dobbs' decision. So Republicans want

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Speaker 7: to stay away from it.

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Speaker 6: They're hoping the court doesn't give the other side a

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Speaker 6: lot of ammunition. And the Democrats are really going to

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Speaker 6: hit home with this message, particularly in those two swings

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Speaker 6: that I mentioned, Arizona and Florida.

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Speaker 8: So considering that the case that we found out about

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Speaker 8: today was a procedural issue and that's why the vote

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Speaker 8: went the way it went, what are going to be

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Speaker 8: the two sides in the Idaho case.

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Speaker 6: Well, this is really it will come back to the

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Speaker 6: Court's position that abortion is a state's issue, that states

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Speaker 6: have the right to regulate all conditions and access for abortion.

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Speaker 7: That's pretty much what Dobbs did, and now Trump has

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Speaker 7: reiterated that he believes it's up to the states.

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Speaker 6: So if states want to criminalize giving a woman an abortion,

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Speaker 6: even to save her life. I'm not sure the Supreme

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Speaker 6: Court's going to step in and say no, no, They've already.

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Speaker 7: Basically said it's up to the states.

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Speaker 6: So I think that's the big question mark, and politically

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Speaker 6: for the Republicans, this is a very difficult issue if

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Speaker 6: it in fact becomes the case that doctors are threatened

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Speaker 6: with prison for saving the life of a woman.

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Speaker 7: You know, that affects women everywhere.

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Speaker 6: It affects women and their daughters, It affects a lot

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Speaker 6: of people in their daily life in terms of the

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Speaker 6: reproductive health, people who are trying to get pregnant, people

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Speaker 6: have a complicated pregnancy. So it really gets to that

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Speaker 6: core of voters that rejected the Republicans in twenty twenty

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Speaker 6: two in this issue and are very likely to do

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Speaker 6: so again if it is the case that a state

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Speaker 6: can really prevent a doctor from saving women's life.

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Speaker 3: So are we going to end up Wendy with abortion

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Speaker 3: policies that really are red and blue? Are we going

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Speaker 3: to have that checkerboard in this country? Is that kind

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Speaker 3: of how this thing may develop?

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Speaker 6: I mean, you can argue, Paul that we already have that,

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Speaker 6: and we certainly had a little bit of that before

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Speaker 6: abortion was legalized in nineteen seventy three with the court decision,

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Speaker 6: And really, when you think about it, there are states

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Speaker 6: where it's really almost virtually impossible to get an abortion,

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Speaker 6: and certainly for the six week abortion band, that becomes

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Speaker 6: very difficult because a lot of women don't know they're

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Speaker 6: pregnant by then. We really have a situation where there

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Speaker 6: is a slight majority of states where abortion is still accessible,

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Speaker 6: and then we have a great number of states, more

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Speaker 6: than twenty where it's very difficult for a women to

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Speaker 6: get an abortion, and sometimes even.

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Speaker 7: In the case of a rape ancestor life of the mother.

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Speaker 6: Now, Texas argues that's not their law, that people are

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Speaker 6: misinterpreting it, that in fact that doctors can perform this

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Speaker 6: in Texas and not be penalized and not be criminalized.

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Speaker 6: But the perception is out there that you can in

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Speaker 6: fact bring this kind of charge or even I a

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Speaker 6: civilian can bring a charge against you for it. So

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Speaker 6: it's really deterring women's seeking of abortion in those states. Now,

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Speaker 6: some other opponents will point out the fact that we

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Speaker 6: actually had a slight increase in the overall number of

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Speaker 6: abortions last year, and that's where access to this pill

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Speaker 6: makes a huge difference for many women in America in

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Speaker 6: terms of securing an abortion.

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Speaker 8: Interesting, Okay, that actually really helps to highlight that even

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Speaker 8: though it'd be difficult, that's why this pill became so important, Wendy,

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Speaker 8: really amazing stuff. Definitely looking forward to having you back,

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Speaker 8: wend You Shiller, Professor at Brown University there standing by,

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Speaker 8: but nonetheless definitely sets the stage for the November election

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Speaker 8: and sort of the policies that will come after that,

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Speaker 8: which to me then makes the question, as an investor,

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Speaker 8: bringing it back to our home base, what do you

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Speaker 8: do about this?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: And clearly clearly investors are very worried about immigration, I

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Speaker 8: mean investors, voters everywhere, sure, very worried about immigration, and

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Speaker 8: very worried about fiscal policy. Like France has made that clear,

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Speaker 8: the UK has made that clear, India made that clear,

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Speaker 8: Mexico made that clear. What do we do with that now?

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Speaker 8: If we look forward to the US in November, because

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Speaker 8: no one's going to be tackling a fiscal policy.

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Speaker 3: No I mean deficit, no way, I mean deficits continue

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Speaker 3: to run rampant at the national debt continues to balloon

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Speaker 3: as a percentage of GDP. And but quite frankly, I've

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Speaker 3: been around a while.

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Speaker 9: This is always yeah, yeah, always.

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Speaker 3: Been an issue, and no one has had the political

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Speaker 3: or economic courage to try to tackle it.

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Speaker 9: So I'm not sure what changes.

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Speaker 8: It's always the whole like it matters, when it matters,

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Speaker 8: it doesn't matter, do I mean at the end of

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Speaker 8: the day, And.

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Speaker 10: That's what it comes down to.

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Speaker 8: hundred and thirty industries worldwide. And then sometimes we take

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Speaker 8: you outside Bloomberg Intelligence for the view on the street.

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Speaker 8: Today we go to Christina Hooper, chief Global market strategist

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Speaker 8: over at Invesco. She joins us. Now, Christina, I gotta

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Speaker 8: say on board now, like we got through CPI and

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Speaker 8: we got through the FED. Okay, bonds are still getting

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Speaker 8: a bid. So I put out there that we could

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Speaker 8: see some significant levels now lower in yields. What do

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Speaker 8: you make of the market, What are we going to

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Speaker 8: be looking at next?

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Speaker 1: So I think next up on the docket is going

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Speaker 1: to be Friday's inflation expectations from the University of Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Now it might not seem that important, but to central bankers,

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Speaker 1: consumer inflation expectations are important. It's part of the calculus.

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Speaker 1: If we go back to June of twenty twenty two,

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Speaker 1: you may recall the FED messaged in advance of that

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Speaker 1: meeting that it was only going to hike fifty basis points,

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Speaker 1: then turned around and hiked seventy five basis points, and

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Speaker 1: when asked about it at the press conference, J. Powell

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Speaker 1: pointed to a few different data points, including Michigan inflation expectations.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's important, But I also am confident

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Speaker 1: that it's going to show that inflation expectations are pretty

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Speaker 1: well anchored, and it will be part of the mosaic

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Speaker 1: of data that the FED reviews next time, and which

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Speaker 1: I think will cause the FED to begin cutting in the.

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Speaker 9: Third quarter, cutting in the third quarter.

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Speaker 3: Okay, So I know you know at this time of year, Christina.

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Speaker 3: You know, every six months, folks that investo you bring

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Speaker 3: together some of your key investment professionals, thought leaders and

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Speaker 3: think about the next six months. What's the next six

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Speaker 3: months look to you, guys.

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Speaker 1: So, in terms of the economy, we expect to continue

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Speaker 1: to see a slowdown in the US, a cooling, but

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Speaker 1: we would anticipate that that's going to be relatively brief

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Speaker 1: and that by the end of the year we'll see

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Speaker 1: a reacceleration and growth. They'll be catalysts like the start

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Speaker 1: of recuts as well as improvements in real income that

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Speaker 1: will help consumers. So all in all, a better picture

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Speaker 1: economically by the end of the year, but nothing bad

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Speaker 1: in between. And we would anticipate markets starting to discount

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Speaker 1: that soon. That would mean a broadening of the stock market,

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Speaker 1: more participation, better performance from cyclicals and smaller caps, and

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Speaker 1: in a more sustained way. Once we start to see

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Speaker 1: the rate cuts begin from the FED.

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Speaker 8: So but once you see that growth and the cuts,

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Speaker 8: does that lead to higher inflation then.

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Speaker 5: No.

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Speaker 1: I think that the FED has done a very good

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Speaker 1: job putting out the flames of higher in inflation. So

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Speaker 1: I don't think the risk is as big as they

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Speaker 1: suggested yesterday that there could be some kind of resurgence

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Speaker 1: in inflation. And we certainly don't have the kind of

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Speaker 1: fiscal stimulus we had that I think was an important

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Speaker 1: part of why we saw such a big increase in inflation.

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Speaker 1: I just don't see that happening going forward.

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Speaker 3: How about in Europe, Christina, the last couple of days,

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Speaker 3: we've seen some changes in the EU. We've seen in

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Speaker 3: France snap elections. We now have the France Germany ten

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Speaker 3: year yield gap set for the widest since twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 9: Look at you, look at me.

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Speaker 3: Gotpad exactly all geopolitical. How do you think about the

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Speaker 3: European Zone, because it seems to be some unsteadiness there.

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Speaker 1: Well, we try to put blinders on when it comes

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Speaker 1: to politics because it can cause volatility in the short term,

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Speaker 1: but beyond that tends not to have a significant impact

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Speaker 1: on markets. So when I look at Europe, what I

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Speaker 1: see is positive economic surprise, and I see the potential

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Speaker 1: for more of that going forward. We also when we

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Speaker 1: look at European equities and UK equities, what we see

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Speaker 1: is greater exposure to cyclicals, so they'd be more sensitive

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Speaker 1: and potentially benefit from an economic reacceleration. And I also

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Speaker 1: see an increase in stock buybacks coming in both those markets.

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Speaker 1: So there's a lot to be very positive about when

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Speaker 1: we look at Europe and the UK.

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Speaker 8: How can you put blinders on when it comes to

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Speaker 8: politics in that we've seen a lot of violent shocks

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Speaker 8: in the market, whether it's France or Mexico, or South

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Speaker 8: Africa or India, and the market reaction is what seems

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Speaker 8: to be catching investors on the back foot. Are we

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Speaker 8: learning a market reaction function to the election in November?

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Speaker 1: Well, I think there's certainly the possibility that we have

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Speaker 1: a significant market reaction in the short term.

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Speaker 10: We have seen that absolutely.

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Speaker 1: With Mexico, with India, and there's certainly the potential for

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Speaker 1: it to happen again. But most investors have a longer

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Speaker 1: time horizon than two weeks or a month or two months,

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Speaker 1: and so that's why I would argue it's important to

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Speaker 1: put blinders on when it comes to things like politics.

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Speaker 3: All Right, So if we want to stay close to

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Speaker 3: home US equities here, I just stay with a big

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Speaker 3: cap growth names that have worked so well for so long,

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Speaker 3: or do I try to get a little bit more

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Speaker 3: bold here, take a long little more risk and try

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Speaker 3: to find some value out there.

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Speaker 1: I think you need to be well diversified. And for

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Speaker 1: most investors, their portfolios are likely overweight the large caps

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Speaker 1: the growth, so it's time to rebalance and ensure there's

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Speaker 1: adequate exposure to smaller caps, to value to cyclicals. I

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Speaker 1: think those areas will perform better as we start to

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Speaker 1: discount a reacceleration in the economy. That doesn't mean that

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Speaker 1: the big cap tech names are going to do terribly,

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Speaker 1: just means that participation is going to broaden and we

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Speaker 1: could actually see our performance by the cyclicals.

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Speaker 8: Is that so diversified?

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Speaker 6: So?

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Speaker 8: And I know you mentioned cyclicals over in Europe as well.

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Speaker 8: Do you need to sell tech to buy the cyclicals

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Speaker 8: or do you just need to sort of take from cash?

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Speaker 8: What do you think?

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Speaker 1: I think what's more likely the case is that there

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Speaker 1: is an overweight to cash and investors' portfolios, and especially

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Speaker 1: as the FED begins to cut rates and cash isn't

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Speaker 1: paying as much, there's a greater argument for reshuffling and

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Speaker 1: at least allocating some of that overweight to cash, to cyclicals,

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Speaker 1: but in some cases there could be extreme overweights and

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Speaker 1: portfolios to technology and large cap growth, and it also

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Speaker 1: makes sense to rebalance there as well.

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Speaker 3: At alternative investments. We have private We all grew up

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Speaker 3: with private equity, hedge funds. Now there's private credit. It

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Speaker 3: seems like there's a lot of opportunities to allocate capital

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Speaker 3: to alternative investments.

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Speaker 9: How do you, guys invest go think about that.

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Speaker 1: We think that makes a lot of sense. We were

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Speaker 1: one of the earliest proponents of including alternatives in portfolio.

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Speaker 1: Still believe that's prudent for many investors' portfolios, that greater diversification,

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Speaker 1: lower correlations. It all makes sense. And there are certainly

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Speaker 1: many opportunities we're seeing in areas like private credit, and

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Speaker 1: I would actually argue there are opportunities appearing in real

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Speaker 1: estate as well, where well, we're certainly seeing European real

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Speaker 1: estate has bottomed, and I also believe there are some

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Speaker 1: opportunities in US real estate that will appear as the

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Speaker 1: year progresses. Keep in mind that one important tail wind

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Speaker 1: again will be rate cuts.

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Speaker 3: So given what we saw Christina yesterday from the Federal Reserve,

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Speaker 3: what we heard from the Federal reserve. What's pencil it

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Speaker 3: in is your base case here? I know a lot

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Speaker 3: of folks are trying to get a sense of do

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Speaker 3: we have something in December? Do we have something maybe

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Speaker 3: even a little bit sooner, but oh boy, we have

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Speaker 3: this election. How do you guys think about it?

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Speaker 1: Well, we hate to have false precision, but I do

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Speaker 1: think we believe the most likely scenario is two rate

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Speaker 1: cuts this year. And obviously the FED is very data dependent,

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Speaker 1: so that can change. But based on what we've seen

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Speaker 1: in terms of disinflationary progress, and given what the FED

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Speaker 1: told us yesterday, which is that they anticipate one ray

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Speaker 1: cut without any progress on disinflation, keep in mind their

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Speaker 1: core PCE target, their forecasts for the end of this

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Speaker 1: year is where core PCE is today. So I would

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Speaker 1: argue that means that no progress equals one ray cut,

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Speaker 1: then some progress in disinflation, which seems increasingly likely, could

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Speaker 1: mean two ray cuts. I'm a believer in that, so

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Speaker 1: I would argue the most likely scenario is September December.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the election is going to change the

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Speaker 1: FED timeline. They've been clear about that.

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Speaker 8: Christina, really really interesting conversation. I learned a Ton Christina Hooper,

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Speaker 8: chief Global market strategist over at Invesco, and that's that's

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Speaker 8: the jewel. Right, you get growth, you get cuts, and

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Speaker 8: you have inflation coming down, and that leads to your

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Speaker 8: cyclical bias.

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Speaker 4: At thein the day, it seems constructive.

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Speaker 8: It seems like the best case scenario.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 8: Absolutely, Mark also saying that the pain trade in the

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Speaker 8: second half could also be led by cyclic goals because

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Speaker 8: kind of no one's investing in them because they're all

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Speaker 8: in tech and overweight tech. At the same time, we

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Speaker 8: did get talked about bonds, but we will in the

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Speaker 8: next hour. You look at the ten year down by

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Speaker 8: another three basis points where to four point two eighty three.

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Speaker 8: That's where we are for the ten year. Also that

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Speaker 8: two year coming down as well to four point seven percent.

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Speaker 8: As let's be honest, equity market's not doing much.

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Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Affo, Cardplay and Android

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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever

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Speaker 2: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 8: This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. We bring you all the

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Speaker 8: news and business and finance and economics. There are a

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Speaker 8: lens of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover two thousand companies

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Speaker 8: and one hundred and thirty industries around the world. And

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00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 8: we go to one of them, now, Seali Omas, He's

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Speaker 8: senior energy analyst to Bloomberg Intelligence. He joins us from

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Speaker 8: Dubai because something that's been really confusing for like seasoned.

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Speaker 10: Oil watchers is what is happening with the oil price.

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Speaker 8: You got Brent sitting at eighty two dollars eighty eight

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Speaker 8: cents a barrel. If you try and understand what OPEC

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Speaker 8: plus is doing of like what the quotas are for

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Speaker 8: what countries when they're adding oil back, it is three

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Speaker 8: times more complicated than the dot plot. I'm not at

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Speaker 8: all kidding you, Sally.

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Speaker 10: Do you do you agree with me?

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Speaker 8: I mean it's so confusing is to understand what OPEC

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Speaker 8: plus is doing that I don't blame the oil price

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Speaker 8: for being confusing either.

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Speaker 5: Now I totally agree.

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Speaker 11: I think the current outlook for the oil market and

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Speaker 11: oil prices is that we do have abundant supply for

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Speaker 11: now and the demand picture is still quite bleak, especially

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Speaker 11: for the second half of this year.

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Speaker 5: I mean, when you look at what OPEC plus is

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Speaker 5: trying to do.

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Speaker 11: I mean, they currently have three layers of output cuts,

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Speaker 11: and this is pretty confusing for OPEK watchers like myself

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Speaker 11: as well. And what they told the market that their

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Speaker 11: last meeting on June the third was that the first

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Speaker 11: two layers they are holding onto those cuts until the

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Speaker 11: end of last year, but the third layer, which was

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Speaker 11: just voluntary output cuts by only eight members eight member

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Speaker 11: nations from OPEC plus, they will extend them until the

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Speaker 11: end of the third quarter, but starting in the fourth

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Speaker 11: quarter they will start to unwind them. And the market

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Speaker 11: actually didn't like this at all, which tells me once

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Speaker 11: again that what the market is seeing is plenty of

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Speaker 11: supply even in the fourth quarter of the quarter of

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Speaker 11: this year, and the demand outlooked that's still pretty soft.

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Speaker 11: I mean, I don't think demand has necessarily been bad

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Speaker 11: this year, but it also hasn't been that great. And

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Speaker 11: when you look at some of the expectations for the

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Speaker 11: third quarter, for the fourth quarter, is that it really

443
00:22:42,320 --> 00:22:44,879
Speaker 11: picks up in the third quarter. I mean, seasonally, this

444
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 11: is generally a good quarter, but there's a significant increase

445
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 11: in demand expectations, and the market seems to think I mean,

446
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 11: the market seems not so confident about that increase in demand.

447
00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 11: So all in all, I think it's a very complicated

448
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,280
Speaker 11: structure that OPEC PLUS has with these cuts now, and

449
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 11: they are in a difficult position now where any increase

450
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:11,159
Speaker 11: in demand may actually be met by increasing supply by

451
00:23:11,920 --> 00:23:14,840
Speaker 11: producers outside of the OPEC PLUS group. So there seems

452
00:23:14,880 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 11: to be very little room for them to increase supply

453
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:20,720
Speaker 11: in the rest of this year. So what I expect

454
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 11: is that they just extend all the outputcasts they have

455
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 11: to the end of this year. Is that our market

456
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 11: anxiety and the twenty twenty five outlook, we'll still count

457
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 11: on demand being strong, which is not really a given.

458
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,719
Speaker 3: So Slee, I guess when we talk about demand, one

459
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 3: of the wild cards I always think about is China.

460
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:46,640
Speaker 3: What's the market discounting today in terms of demand from China.

461
00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a big question mark.

462
00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,679
Speaker 11: And you know, as you say, China growth has been

463
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 11: one of the biggest drivers of oil demand growth as well,

464
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,520
Speaker 11: and I think we could be looking at a change

465
00:24:00,560 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 11: in paradigm where you know, I think the market may

466
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 11: have been assuming a six percent growth for China, where

467
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:08,720
Speaker 11: maybe we need to be pricing in a four percent

468
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,880
Speaker 11: growth in China, and it's still unclear what that would

469
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 11: mean exactly for how that would translate into oil demand

470
00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 11: growth numbers from China. But I think a lot of

471
00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 11: the anxiety you're seeing right now for expectations of oil

472
00:24:22,320 --> 00:24:24,200
Speaker 11: demand in the second half of the year is still

473
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,160
Speaker 11: being driven by China because we still don't know where

474
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,280
Speaker 11: China goes from here in the third quarter and fourth quarter.

475
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,320
Speaker 8: And that's sort of the problem, Like nobody knows where

476
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,120
Speaker 8: demand is going to go, like it's going to eventually decrease,

477
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:39,720
Speaker 8: but it's not going to zero. And it feels like,

478
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 8: as you were just saying there, in lies OPEC Plus's problem.

479
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,600
Speaker 8: At the same time, the supply side here in the

480
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 8: US and Canada, Brazil, Guyana, it's really really holding up.

481
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:54,520
Speaker 8: And all this M and A in the US is

482
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 8: only going to make these guys even more efficient aka

483
00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 8: get more oil out of rocks for example.

484
00:25:00,640 --> 00:25:02,280
Speaker 10: What do we make of that part of the equation?

485
00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 11: Now, I totally agree with you, and I think the

486
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:09,400
Speaker 11: dilemma for OPEC plus right now is clearly their strategy

487
00:25:09,440 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 11: has been focusing on supporting prices and foregoing market share

488
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 11: for now. Because you know they need higher oil prices

489
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 11: to fiscally break even back.

490
00:25:18,840 --> 00:25:23,400
Speaker 5: Home, But the dilemma is that the higher they keep prices.

491
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,639
Speaker 11: For their transformation projects back home or whatever it might be,

492
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 11: for the fiscal break even prices. But at the same time,

493
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 11: the higher they keep prices, the more they encourage non

494
00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 11: OPEC plus. I mean, as you said, the USHL, Brazil, Guyana,

495
00:25:38,359 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 11: pretty soon Namibia. So they're at this point where you

496
00:25:42,240 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 11: know they won't higher oil prices, but the higher they

497
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 11: artificially keep oil prices, the more they're encouraging NONOPEC plus supply,

498
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,119
Speaker 11: which in turn makes it very difficult for them to

499
00:25:54,359 --> 00:25:58,879
Speaker 11: start tapering those cuts. So it's a very difficult position

500
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:01,560
Speaker 11: for them, I think. And on your very briefly on

501
00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 11: your point on on demand again, I absolutely agree it's

502
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 11: I mean, as long as I've been covering the oil space,

503
00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:13,360
Speaker 11: I've never seen a bigger divergence in oil demand expectations

504
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:15,880
Speaker 11: between different agencies. When you look look at OPEC plus,

505
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:18,600
Speaker 11: what they tell us for this year is that they

506
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:22,280
Speaker 11: expect the growth in oil demand globally to be two

507
00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:23,720
Speaker 11: point two million pounds per day.

508
00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 5: What IA is telling us is about half of that.

509
00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,160
Speaker 11: And you know, when we talk about twenty and thirty

510
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 11: twenty thirty five, it's pretty common that we see divergence

511
00:26:33,640 --> 00:26:36,760
Speaker 11: in expectations between OPEC and Ia, but for this year

512
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,080
Speaker 11: to have such a big divergence is something that I've

513
00:26:40,119 --> 00:26:43,800
Speaker 11: never seen before. So clearly, no one really knows what

514
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 11: happens in the second half of the year. As I said,

515
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,359
Speaker 11: third quarter, you know, an uptick is likely, this is

516
00:26:49,440 --> 00:26:54,400
Speaker 11: a seasonally good period for oil demand. But then what's

517
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 11: what happens in China and what happens in the fourth

518
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 11: quarter globally, we really don't know.

519
00:26:58,800 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 8: See I told you, Paul.

520
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:00,880
Speaker 10: I tell Paul.

521
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 8: I was like, look, you don't have to know anything

522
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 8: about oil right now, because no one knows what's happening

523
00:27:04,080 --> 00:27:06,000
Speaker 8: with oil. So you're good. You're a good company.

524
00:27:06,440 --> 00:27:10,120
Speaker 3: So sally happened supply from our good friends in Texas

525
00:27:10,200 --> 00:27:13,919
Speaker 3: and Oklahoma. Where's the US in terms of global supply

526
00:27:14,080 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 3: these days? How does the market discount that?

527
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 7: So?

528
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 11: I mean, as we've discussed on this call before as well.

529
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 11: Last year, I think the US supply growth surprised all

530
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 11: of us. I mean, many of the analysts on the street,

531
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 11: including myself, we didn't really see that growth from the

532
00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 11: US coming because you know, we've been talking about how

533
00:27:33,040 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 11: a lot of these producers, a lot of these companies

534
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 11: are very much prioritizing shareholder returns. You know, capex levels

535
00:27:40,119 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 11: are not expected to be at pre pandemic levels just yet,

536
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:48,040
Speaker 11: and even with those, we saw incredible growth in US

537
00:27:48,160 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 11: output this year. I mean, what we're hearing and what

538
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 11: we expect in BI is probably not as much growth

539
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,639
Speaker 11: as we saw last year. But again, I mean, oil

540
00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 11: price levels have been very favorable for these producers, so they've.

541
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:05,400
Speaker 5: Been able to deliver those shareholder returns.

542
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:09,320
Speaker 11: But at the same time, you know, increase copex that's

543
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 11: going into their current projects as well as some of

544
00:28:12,920 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 11: their growth projects as well. So I can't give you

545
00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:19,280
Speaker 11: a number, but a number that's probably slightly lower than

546
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:21,119
Speaker 11: the number we saw last year, which was about one

547
00:28:21,160 --> 00:28:24,720
Speaker 11: million rounds per day, which again, I mean, it may

548
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:27,399
Speaker 11: not be as big as the number last year, but

549
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 11: I think it's still a big enough number to give

550
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:30,800
Speaker 11: OPEK plus trouble.

551
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,560
Speaker 8: All Right, Sally, thank you very much, Seli Jumas. We

552
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 8: really appreciate it, Bloomberg Intelligence and your technology analyst joining

553
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 8: from Dubai. It is very much a confusing market for sure.

554
00:28:45,480 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

555
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:52,960
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android

556
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

557
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:58,960
Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station

558
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,720
Speaker 2: just say playing Bloomberg eleven.

559
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,280
Speaker 3: Let's switch gears here and talk about supply chains again.

560
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 3: I think we all became someone expert in supply chain

561
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 3: analysis during the pandemic, because boy did that take a

562
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 3: big shock. And the question is kind of where are

563
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:20,040
Speaker 3: we now in the post pandemic world. Oscar Debac joins us.

564
00:29:20,080 --> 00:29:24,080
Speaker 3: He's the CEO of DHL Supply Chain. He's joining us

565
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 3: remotely from our Amsterdam bureau. I haven't even been to

566
00:29:27,520 --> 00:29:30,160
Speaker 3: our Amsterdam bureau, but I'm sure it's spectacular like every

567
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 3: other bureau we have. Oscar, thanks so much for joining

568
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 3: us here. I'd love to get your perspective as you

569
00:29:35,160 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: think about the global supply chain. From your perspective, where

570
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:41,760
Speaker 3: are we in terms of getting back to I'm gonna

571
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 3: say normal, I'm not sure if that's the right word,

572
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 3: but where are we in terms of moving goods around

573
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 3: the world?

574
00:29:49,600 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 12: Yeah, they're really really good to be here, and indeed

575
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 12: the view of your Amsterdam studio is really good.

576
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:58,720
Speaker 13: Actually it's not Poolia, but still it's it's decent. So

577
00:29:59,360 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 13: back to your question, what is normal is obviously the question.

578
00:30:05,000 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 4: But what you do see is if you.

579
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,600
Speaker 12: If you take the last the last four years, where

580
00:30:10,640 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 12: we've seen obviously every distraction and the disruption of supply

581
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 12: chains over over time, being at wars and being as

582
00:30:18,600 --> 00:30:23,480
Speaker 12: obviously the uh, the the the disease and all of that.

583
00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,520
Speaker 12: But what where I think we are now is starting

584
00:30:26,520 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 12: to get in a phase where it gradually starts to stabilize.

585
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 12: But it's also because companies have become far better and

586
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,600
Speaker 12: people as well, obviously consumers as well, but the companies

587
00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 12: have become far better to respond to the unexpected. And

588
00:30:41,960 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 12: I think that's also one of the elements on how

589
00:30:44,600 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 12: supply chains have now been. Are now manutes far better

590
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 12: than than not the time sort of companies moved away

591
00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:52,560
Speaker 12: from the just in time part.

592
00:30:52,960 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 4: Now making sure that products are actually available.

593
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 12: There's far more security in supply chains, but also there's

594
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 12: better of data, there's better the whole digitalization is better.

595
00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, and indeed supplies are organized differently.

596
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:11,640
Speaker 12: If you look at how where stocks are being put,

597
00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 12: how it's being spread over the world, but you know

598
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:17,560
Speaker 12: called near shoring, omnishoring, trying to postpone all of that.

599
00:31:17,680 --> 00:31:20,440
Speaker 4: But you see a change of house supplied to its

600
00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 4: organized well.

601
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 8: And then to that point, I mean, I was going

602
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 8: to go with logistics and robots, not you know, future crazy,

603
00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:29,600
Speaker 8: weird looking robots, but just the idea that companies had

604
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,360
Speaker 8: to become much leaner and get better and trim lots

605
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:35,120
Speaker 8: of fat and be better at logistics to do all

606
00:31:35,160 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 8: the things that you're talking about. That's also an investment cycle.

607
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 8: Where are we in that right now in the industry.

608
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 12: So what you see is that indeed the industry is

609
00:31:45,280 --> 00:31:48,520
Speaker 12: really accelerated in that perspective. So if you take indeed,

610
00:31:48,560 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 12: if you take the robotics element of it, and indeed

611
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,320
Speaker 12: it's not a futuristic thing. It's actually happening today where

612
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 12: lots of operations, of fulfillment operations work with collaborative robotics,

613
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:03,160
Speaker 12: where people work to together with robots with robotic solutions.

614
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 4: And that's one way which is important not only from a.

615
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 12: Productivity perspective, but also to be able to manage and

616
00:32:10,240 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 12: to cope with fluctuations of seasonalities, of high seasons, peak seasons,

617
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 12: and you see that if I take our own company

618
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 12: as an example, where maybe five years ago we would

619
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:24,520
Speaker 12: have zero robots, we now have about seven thousand, and

620
00:32:24,640 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 12: that is fast growing further, and that helps us to

621
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:32,200
Speaker 12: better manage the expected but also better manage peak seasons,

622
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 12: and also to make a working environment more exciting for

623
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,480
Speaker 12: people as well, because that's the other element, and you

624
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 12: need to make sure to be able to attract people,

625
00:32:41,400 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 12: to be a great place to work for people.

626
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 4: So that's another important.

627
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:48,840
Speaker 12: Element on that robotics agenda as well, but that always

628
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,160
Speaker 12: comes together comes together with being better at data analytics,

629
00:32:52,280 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 12: because the better you can read data, the better you

630
00:32:55,080 --> 00:32:58,000
Speaker 12: can forecast, make the right investments, but also forecast what's

631
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:01,000
Speaker 12: going to happen tomorrow, next week and the week after Oscar.

632
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 3: One of the themes that came out of the pandemic

633
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 3: was a sense of we've got to shore up our

634
00:33:05,080 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 3: supply chain, so that means I guess on shoring, friends shoring,

635
00:33:10,200 --> 00:33:13,000
Speaker 3: maybe bringing stuff a little bit closer to the end market.

636
00:33:14,080 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 9: Are we actually seeing that? Do you actually see that

637
00:33:16,360 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 9: in trade flows?

638
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 4: Yeah? What you see is you already have said it

639
00:33:22,680 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 4: right right.

640
00:33:22,960 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 12: There's several names that has been given to it, whether

641
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 12: it's now the Assuring, Ushuring, Omnishuring, and then you have

642
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 12: the China plus one terminology. But what it all comes

643
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 12: back to is that, yes, there is an element of

644
00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 12: having stock closer to the end market, but there's a

645
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 12: more important element is that companies don't bet anymore to

646
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:48,520
Speaker 12: have their key supplies, their key components coming from one

647
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,600
Speaker 12: sourcing point on one continent. They all make sure that

648
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:54,720
Speaker 12: whenever they now make investments in their next capacity, so

649
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,920
Speaker 12: their next production site and the next player then make

650
00:33:56,960 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 12: sure that it is other different continent.

651
00:34:00,760 --> 00:34:02,480
Speaker 4: Uh. And that's what you start to see.

652
00:34:02,520 --> 00:34:06,120
Speaker 12: You see that very much in the semicon business, where

653
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,319
Speaker 12: you see lots of investments in Malaysia, investments in the US,

654
00:34:09,640 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 12: investments in the eastern parts of Europe.

655
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 4: So that's a trend you see.

656
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:17,080
Speaker 12: Or if you look the automotive industry, the major investments

657
00:34:17,080 --> 00:34:20,920
Speaker 12: that you see in Mexico there but similarly also in

658
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:26,440
Speaker 12: for instance Thailand, in India, so you see that the

659
00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:30,880
Speaker 12: suppli sees are being spread moreover to actually spread the

660
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:34,480
Speaker 12: risk and indeed at the same time also be closer

661
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 12: to the market.

662
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:38,600
Speaker 8: Before we let you go, you talked about how suppliers

663
00:34:38,600 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 8: are looking for the not just in time, but to

664
00:34:40,520 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 8: build a little bit of inventory, which leads me to demand.

665
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 8: Where are the weak parts right now?

666
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:49,319
Speaker 4: The weak parts in the supply chains?

667
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 8: You mean, yeah, I mean like in terms of the

668
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 8: demand pole, like what kind of countries are buying, Like

669
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 8: what kind of industries still have that demand pole?

670
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,759
Speaker 12: Well, I think overall, it's not that there's so what

671
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,160
Speaker 12: you see is it the demand pole overall?

672
00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:09,560
Speaker 4: Because it was just in a in a different interview.

673
00:35:09,600 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 12: We were just discussing about the volumes that are upcoming

674
00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,040
Speaker 12: and what you what you clearly see at the moment

675
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 12: is that stocks are being built up, not to the

676
00:35:20,080 --> 00:35:23,280
Speaker 12: levels maybe that we've seen two years back, but companies

677
00:35:23,360 --> 00:35:27,880
Speaker 12: are building up stock because there are forecasting a certain

678
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 12: demount poo in qg Q four. Now, how much is

679
00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:33,319
Speaker 12: actually going to be that that we now now need

680
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 12: to see your question about. From a geography perspective, there's

681
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 12: obviously we see an increased flow from Asia to the US,

682
00:35:42,440 --> 00:35:47,120
Speaker 12: to to to Europe. We see an uh hesitant increase

683
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 12: of building up of stock in the US. Similar picture

684
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 12: in some parts of parts of parts of Europe. So

685
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,720
Speaker 12: that's a bit from a geographical perspective.

686
00:35:56,160 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 4: How you see that.

687
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 12: But overall there is a sort of a a careful

688
00:36:01,040 --> 00:36:05,560
Speaker 12: building up of stock being ready for a sort of

689
00:36:05,680 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 12: conservative peak season.

690
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 3: All right, Oscar, thank you so much for joining us.

691
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 3: Really appreciate getting your first hand insight. Oscar Debak. He's

692
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 3: the CEO of DHL Supply Chain, joining us from our

693
00:36:17,600 --> 00:36:18,800
Speaker 3: Amsterdam bureau.

694
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,400
Speaker 9: Which, again, for those on YouTube books, pretty darn sweet.

695
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:28,879
Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live

696
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,520
Speaker 2: weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecard Play and Android

697
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Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen

698
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699
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,640
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700
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:46,680
Speaker 8: I'm Alex thee alongside Paul Sweeney. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio.

701
00:36:46,719 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 8: We cover all the top news in business, finance, and

702
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 8: economics through our lens of Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They cover

703
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,840
Speaker 8: two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries around

704
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 8: the world, and for the month of June, Bloomberg Radio

705
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 8: is committed to bringing you segments and guests that focused

706
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 8: on the topic of equality, and today we're speaking with

707
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 8: Ashley Fox, CEO and founder of Emplify. Ashley, thanks for

708
00:37:07,120 --> 00:37:09,560
Speaker 8: joining us in studio. You're based in Atlanta, Georgia, but

709
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 8: you are a recovering Wall Streeter, so New York is

710
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 8: still kind of home for you. Yes, yes, what is empify?

711
00:37:15,800 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 10: So emplify is the word empower and modify, merge together.

712
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 10: So I made the word of We are a fintech

713
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 10: startup that is revolutionized on how adults and children learn

714
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,200
Speaker 10: how to build wealth. So we create financial education tools

715
00:37:27,239 --> 00:37:30,120
Speaker 10: and resources that target the ninety nine percent that Wall

716
00:37:30,120 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 10: Street often overlooks. So we created programs in school systems

717
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:35,439
Speaker 10: and prison systems. We have a membership based at where

718
00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:37,400
Speaker 10: people from all over the world have access to financial

719
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:38,600
Speaker 10: education the palm of their hand.

720
00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 3: So what are you trying to address Initially? Is it

721
00:37:42,400 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 3: just the fact that you're trying to say, hey, this

722
00:37:44,840 --> 00:37:46,759
Speaker 3: is how you invest or? I mean, what's kind of that?

723
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:47,600
Speaker 9: How do you get there?

724
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:50,320
Speaker 10: So, coming from a Wall Street background, we worked with

725
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 10: ultra high network individuals and so when you had at

726
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 10: least twenty five million dollars, there's an infrastructure set up

727
00:37:55,480 --> 00:37:57,160
Speaker 10: to help you protect your wealth, grow your wealth, and

728
00:37:57,200 --> 00:37:58,880
Speaker 10: preserve your wealth. But what does that look like for

729
00:37:58,920 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 10: the everyday person? Because you can't just walk into a

730
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:02,360
Speaker 10: bank and say, hey, can you teach me how to

731
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:04,040
Speaker 10: buy a stock? Can you teach me how to create

732
00:38:04,080 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 10: a trust or build a legacy to pass out to

733
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:08,399
Speaker 10: my family? And I wanted to create something that gave

734
00:38:08,480 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 10: that Wall Street experience but for the everyday person. So

735
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 10: we're teaching you for the basics getting your investments started,

736
00:38:14,360 --> 00:38:16,800
Speaker 10: because there's a lot of fear, doubt, and worry, and

737
00:38:16,880 --> 00:38:18,759
Speaker 10: I wanted to break that mental barrier to show people

738
00:38:18,800 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 10: no matter how much money you do or do not have,

739
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 10: where you come from, or what you look like, you

740
00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,800
Speaker 10: can build wealth, break by brick, share by share, And

741
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,720
Speaker 10: so we want to make it in a culturally relevant,

742
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 10: easy to understand way. So we've taught middle school students

743
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:32,479
Speaker 10: how to open brokerage accounts, how to buy a stock.

744
00:38:32,840 --> 00:38:35,919
Speaker 10: We've been in the prison systems teaching the everyday person

745
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 10: a topic that we don't like to talk about at

746
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 10: the dinner table, but it is something that can change

747
00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 10: our family's dynamics.

748
00:38:40,920 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 8: Definitely when so for my daughter, we'll be in middle

749
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 8: school in the years. So I love this program I

750
00:38:47,040 --> 00:38:48,520
Speaker 8: keep trying to teach her if you spend that, you

751
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 8: won't have that money later. But you know it doesn't

752
00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 8: always think gam when she's nine and a half. In

753
00:38:53,000 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 8: terms of people who use your app to help generate wealth,

754
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 8: what is their income base to begin with?

755
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 10: So when we think so are our tech platform is

756
00:39:01,000 --> 00:39:02,560
Speaker 10: a wealth builders community. So you can kind of look

757
00:39:02,560 --> 00:39:04,279
Speaker 10: at that like the Netflix of finance, where we have

758
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 10: over two hundred and fifty hours of classes, tools, resources

759
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 10: covering from retirement planning, stock investing, parent investing, legacy planning,

760
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 10: life insurance, and given that holistic experience. So when people

761
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,040
Speaker 10: come in, I would say we had working professionals at

762
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 10: twenty five, so we are one of our oldest members

763
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 10: is seventy three years old. So we typically target working

764
00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,759
Speaker 10: professionals and entrepreneurs who have some income coming in but

765
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 10: are financially not educated, financially scared, not sure what to do,

766
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:33,000
Speaker 10: where to go, or who to trust, and we create

767
00:39:33,080 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 10: that safe, like community like environment that teaches them the

768
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,800
Speaker 10: basics again, starting to open your brokerage account, understanding different

769
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 10: types of stocks that are out there, how do you

770
00:39:41,520 --> 00:39:43,920
Speaker 10: build your strategy so that you're growing your money, not

771
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 10: just spending it, but you're preserving it and you're properly

772
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 10: passing it down. So it's more of a holistic experience

773
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:52,640
Speaker 10: that targets the mind and hearts of people who want

774
00:39:52,680 --> 00:39:54,480
Speaker 10: to invest, who want to learn how to build, just

775
00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:55,279
Speaker 10: don't know where to go.

776
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: So what are I'm trying to think of my kids,

777
00:39:58,680 --> 00:40:00,040
Speaker 3: and I think some of the advice I'd give and

778
00:40:00,080 --> 00:40:04,600
Speaker 3: them is max you for one K, pay your credit cards,

779
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:06,880
Speaker 3: don't let anything right on your credit cards, pay it off,

780
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: and some of the basics.

781
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 9: What are some of the basis that you start with

782
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:11,720
Speaker 9: your clients.

783
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:13,759
Speaker 10: So one of the things that we do is take

784
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 10: inventory where you spend your money, Where are you shopping,

785
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 10: what do you eat, what are you wearing, what gas

786
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:20,759
Speaker 10: do you put what kind of car do you drive?

787
00:40:21,000 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 10: Because chances are a lot of the companies we use

788
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 10: know and believe in are publicly traded, and we think

789
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 10: that we need a lot of money to invest, but

790
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:29,680
Speaker 10: there are a lot of stocks that are under three

791
00:40:29,719 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 10: hundred and I We've got trillion dollar businesses that are

792
00:40:31,800 --> 00:40:33,839
Speaker 10: less than three hundred dollars a share that we give

793
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 10: more money to. And so the easiest way for us

794
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:37,640
Speaker 10: to do it is to start with what you know.

795
00:40:38,120 --> 00:40:41,399
Speaker 10: I'm not. Don't go research a random company you see

796
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:43,439
Speaker 10: on the internet. Start with who you are a loyal

797
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,800
Speaker 10: customer to, because it's a lot easier to read financials.

798
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 10: It's a lot easier to understand a company and start

799
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:49,960
Speaker 10: there because the chances of you're giving your money to

800
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,120
Speaker 10: these companies. There's a lot of people who are too,

801
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 10: and so really getting it down to who are you,

802
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:57,640
Speaker 10: what do you use, what do you need, and let's

803
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:00,080
Speaker 10: start from there. So I always tell people, if if

804
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:01,279
Speaker 10: you're going to use it and give your money to

805
00:41:01,320 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 10: the company, why not consider owning a piece of that company?

806
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 10: And you can do that by invessing in a stock market.

807
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:07,920
Speaker 8: You told us sort of why you came up with

808
00:41:08,000 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 8: this idea, how long has it been around, what's it

809
00:41:10,160 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 8: been like?

810
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:14,760
Speaker 10: The whole journey. So I left Wall Street July twenty thirteen.

811
00:41:14,920 --> 00:41:17,160
Speaker 10: I haven't looked back since. One of the craziest but

812
00:41:17,239 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 10: most fulfilling experiences. I went on to be a financial

813
00:41:19,840 --> 00:41:22,160
Speaker 10: advisor targeting load of moderate income individuals because I had

814
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 10: a bunch of security licenses and I realized that I

815
00:41:24,360 --> 00:41:27,320
Speaker 10: didn't want to focus on the implementation. I wanted to

816
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 10: give the education, and so that's where emplified. So I

817
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:31,959
Speaker 10: came up with the word in twenty thirteen. We didn't

818
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:35,319
Speaker 10: generate our first stream of revenue until twenty seventeen. Twenty

819
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 10: seventeen we got contracts with schools in Atlanta, Philadelphia, and

820
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 10: in New York City, and then we went on to

821
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:45,399
Speaker 10: really massively produce education all throughout the country. COVID hit

822
00:41:45,960 --> 00:41:48,120
Speaker 10: and schools didn't know how to function. But the beauty

823
00:41:48,160 --> 00:41:49,520
Speaker 10: of that was there were a lot of adult saying,

824
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:51,680
Speaker 10: I see what you're doing in school systems, what can

825
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:53,680
Speaker 10: you do? And I didn't want I felt like God

826
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 10: put me here not to just serve one individual as

827
00:41:55,840 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 10: their advisor. I wanted to build what kleenexes the tissues

828
00:41:59,840 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 10: is what Emplify will be for finance. And that's what

829
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 10: I wanted to create. So in twenty twenty twenty, we

830
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:07,160
Speaker 10: launched our Wealth or this community platform, which is the

831
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 10: tech platform that allows adults in over forty four different countries,

832
00:42:10,160 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 10: thousands of people to get access to the tools and resources.

833
00:42:13,000 --> 00:42:14,600
Speaker 10: It's been a journey that.

834
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 8: Came second, yesee, the educational parts to schools in prisons.

835
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 5: Correct.

836
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:19,320
Speaker 10: So first we were first we were b to B

837
00:42:19,760 --> 00:42:21,520
Speaker 10: and then when COVID hit, we became B two C.

838
00:42:21,840 --> 00:42:23,839
Speaker 10: But we were able to scale a lot faster because

839
00:42:23,840 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 10: we had technology. And so I would say, journey wise,

840
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,800
Speaker 10: it's it's been fulfilling because we've impacted the lives of

841
00:42:30,880 --> 00:42:34,160
Speaker 10: millions of people. We've partnered with community college, financial institutions,

842
00:42:34,360 --> 00:42:36,799
Speaker 10: companies that I used to work for or research are

843
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 10: aligning ourselves. We're aligning ourselves to these organizations to be

844
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,160
Speaker 10: able to create financial education resources for the everyday person.

845
00:42:43,320 --> 00:42:45,160
Speaker 10: So I could say, as an entrepreneur, it's been a journey.

846
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 10: I started out with something I wanted to give the world.

847
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 10: I didn't know how, I did not know what I

848
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 10: was going to do, but I knew why, and I

849
00:42:52,680 --> 00:42:54,319
Speaker 10: knew I wanted to be the woman and get it done.

850
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 10: And I think I'm able to translate Wall Street knowledge

851
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 10: because I understand how the banking system, how Walls Street works.

852
00:43:01,160 --> 00:43:03,080
Speaker 10: But I also didn't come from growing up with a

853
00:43:03,120 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 10: lot of money. I'm the first person in my family

854
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 10: to graduate from college. I was making more money than

855
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 10: both my parents when I was early on Wall Street,

856
00:43:10,160 --> 00:43:12,360
Speaker 10: and I wanted to be able to take that universal

857
00:43:12,480 --> 00:43:15,560
Speaker 10: language and create something that can make people believe no

858
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 10: matter what you look like, you can build wealth and

859
00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 10: no matter what you do or do not know, emplithize

860
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,000
Speaker 10: here to give you that education.

861
00:43:22,520 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 9: How many employees do you have in your company and house?

862
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 9: How's that growing?

863
00:43:26,200 --> 00:43:27,879
Speaker 10: So right now we are a team of eight. We're

864
00:43:27,880 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 10: actually in the process of hiring three more individuals, so

865
00:43:30,080 --> 00:43:31,759
Speaker 10: we will be in double digit I think that's been

866
00:43:31,800 --> 00:43:33,719
Speaker 10: the most challenging part, the people part. They don't teach

867
00:43:33,719 --> 00:43:36,799
Speaker 10: you that in school. The right people, finding the right people,

868
00:43:36,920 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 10: building the culture, having this the resources, the environment. I

869
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 10: think everyone on our team is phenomenal because they believe

870
00:43:43,400 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 10: in what we do. And I think I never left

871
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 10: Wall Street to make money. I think I would have

872
00:43:49,000 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 10: stayed there if I wanted to make the money. I

873
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 10: really wanted to change the dynamics because you shouldn't have

874
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 10: to go to Wall Street to get access to this information.

875
00:43:56,760 --> 00:43:58,400
Speaker 10: How can we put it in our school systems? How

876
00:43:58,440 --> 00:44:00,560
Speaker 10: can we talk about it at the dinner table holidays?

877
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 10: And so we are right now a team of eight.

878
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 10: I would say in the next thirty days we'll probably

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Speaker 10: be a team of twelve people. But we are growing

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Speaker 10: fast as a company. It's been an exciting journey amazing.

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Speaker 8: This was such a great story. Thank you so much

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Speaker 8: for bringing it for us. I had zero financial education

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Speaker 8: until I started working in this industry, and I had

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Speaker 8: like clawmb my way up. So I'm so appreciative of

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Speaker 8: what you guys are doing. Thank you so much. Ashley Fox,

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Speaker 8: CEO and founder of Amplify, on her fintech startup help

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Speaker 8: regular old people build, well, figure stuff out, really amazing stuff.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on apples, Spotify,

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00:44:36,040 --> 00:44:38,919
Speaker 2: and anywhere else you will get your podcasts. Listen live

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00:44:39,040 --> 00:44:42,439
Speaker 2: each weekday ten am to noon Eastern on Bloomberg dot com,

891
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Speaker 2: Bihart Radio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app.

892
00:44:46,239 --> 00:44:49,240
Speaker 2: You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube

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Speaker 2: and always on the Bloomberg terminal