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Speaker 2: Claudia Sam joins as chief Economist at News Century Advisors
Speaker 2: or PhD at Michigan with Giant of Inflation Analysis Matthew D.
Speaker 3: Shapiro. Claudia, I gotta get this out of the way
Speaker 3: before we go to jobs.
Speaker 2: You are acclaimed for the same rule. There seems to
Speaker 2: be a bet of slowing GDP. Are you in any
Speaker 2: way on a recession, not an NBR recession, but are
Speaker 2: you with a Sam rule in any way looking at
Speaker 2: a new analysis of slowdown?
Speaker 4: So absolutely looking at believe market any signs of slow down.
Speaker 4: We are not at a place where we're close to
Speaker 4: kind of that historical trigger for this SOM rule. I
Speaker 4: mean we would need to, you know, see the unemployment
Speaker 4: rate probably rise this year up to four and a
Speaker 4: half percent before we start to get kind of in
Speaker 4: that danger zone. But of course there are certain you know,
Speaker 4: sectors looking at something like government the government sector. We
Speaker 4: could see a contraction there, and it doesn't necessarily have
Speaker 4: to show up as a national contraction. So there's a
Speaker 4: lot to watch in the labor market in terms of.
Speaker 2: Things, Claudiah with revision, I got two months and we'll
Speaker 2: get much more later of one hundred and thirty eight
Speaker 2: thousand and sixty day runway.
Speaker 3: Is that a buoyant job economy.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure i'd use the word buoyant, but you
Speaker 4: know that these numbers added like at a first look,
Speaker 4: are I mean, there's solid, they're you know, showing you know,
Speaker 4: the difference between one hundred and one hundred and sixty
Speaker 4: thousand on the month is not like, let's you know,
Speaker 4: let's be real about the statistical precision of what we're
Speaker 4: doing here. But it's not you know, it's kind of
Speaker 4: a tre treading water that picked up was you know,
Speaker 4: a tenth, but again also staying very low. So you know,
Speaker 4: I think that's it's a I mean, this report we
Speaker 4: should see a lot as a baseline before we're headed
Speaker 4: into what is been a very chaotic period with Harris
Speaker 4: and with the Doge action. So you know, it's you know,
Speaker 4: the better this was today, that's more resilient. So it's great,
Speaker 4: it's you know, it's not great, but it's good.
Speaker 3: Well, I got a futures lifted out at Paul.
Speaker 2: Can we describe how unfair it is to Claudiusamer to
Speaker 2: warbled gaily here with the data come out the green
Speaker 2: Span statistic, Paul, the under employment rate from seven and
Speaker 2: a half percent last month out to eight percent this month.
Speaker 2: So there's just one tea leaf within the bucket of
Speaker 2: the ship of tea.
Speaker 5: Yeah, a little bit again on some of these revisions
Speaker 5: coming in lower from last month as well. We want
Speaker 5: to put that in context as well. Uh, Claudia, how
Speaker 5: do you think the Federal Reserve will look at this
Speaker 5: data print here today? I think so.
Speaker 4: I don't see anything here that will will change their
Speaker 4: near term course. So they're not they're not set up
Speaker 4: to be cutting cutting interest rates. I don't you know
Speaker 4: this doesn't you know a really negative print might have
Speaker 4: a really weak print, might have like kind of pushed
Speaker 4: some of you know, that the growth issues might come
Speaker 4: up more quickly. I think this still puts them on
Speaker 4: and just puts them in their wait and see. This
Speaker 4: is not that far off of expectations. This is not
Speaker 4: this is a sustainable number, and.
Speaker 2: We see it within the market. With ten, you're really
Speaker 2: lifting up. Futures come up a bit. VIX is better behaved.
Speaker 2: Claudia Sam, thank you so much. Please call us if
Speaker 2: the sum rule clicks in here anytime twenty four to seven.
Speaker 2: Will take call Claudia Sam with New Century Advisors with
Speaker 2: us in the studio right now, we are on We
Speaker 2: have one of the best students of the American consumer
Speaker 2: in American economics. Ellen Zentner joins from Morgan Stanley. Let
Speaker 2: me go to the wheelhouse, Ellen, before we get to
Speaker 2: the jobs day.
Speaker 3: With the absolute.
Speaker 2: Historic moment including inflation, sea change in Japan, the Europe
Speaker 2: of yesterday. You know, I can't imagine Morgan Stanley economics
Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours.
Speaker 3: Is there a resilience to the American consumer.
Speaker 6: There's a resilience depending on what income group you're in.
Speaker 6: And the thing that I'm concerned about is that we've
Speaker 6: had all our eggs in one basket for some time now.
Speaker 6: With the wealthy propping up aggregate spending in the US
Speaker 6: and with tariffs coming on goods, it's going to disproportionately
Speaker 6: hit lower income groups. Create that continued drag on them.
Speaker 7: The wealthy groups.
Speaker 6: Probably won't be there to pick up the slack in
Speaker 6: good spending. We're spending on services, and services aren't where
Speaker 6: tariffs are hitting.
Speaker 5: So in twenty twenty five, I know one of the
Speaker 5: themes and you guys think about that, the big themes
Speaker 5: out there that could be moving the market, and we
Speaker 5: did not see it necessarily in this job's data. But
Speaker 5: you know, if you're going to have tariffs potentially an
Speaker 5: impact on a negative impact on growth, economic growth, maybe
Speaker 5: an impact on inflation moving higher, changes in immigration, also
Speaker 5: maybe having some inflationary at some growth issues. When do
Speaker 5: you think we'll start to see that in the data?
Speaker 5: Is that a second half of twenty five issue?
Speaker 6: Yes, I think depending on which I don't know what's
Speaker 6: going to happen from day to day, just or hour
Speaker 6: to hour, minute to minute, but depending on when tariffs
Speaker 6: are put in place, and we know already they're coming
Speaker 6: through from China. The reason why the FED has to
Speaker 6: remain data dependent is because tariffs fall here, there, and everywhere,
Speaker 6: and you don't know how much of it it's going
Speaker 6: to be absorbed by manufacturers along intermediate goods route or
Speaker 6: FONT to final goods for consumers, and so you just
Speaker 6: have to wait to see what happens. I suspect that
Speaker 6: households in the US are not indiscriminate buyers here, that
Speaker 6: we do have a degree of price tolerance, and that
Speaker 6: you are going to get a hit to aggregate demand.
Speaker 6: And as a policymaker, you should look through that the
Speaker 6: price effects because eventually they're going to come off because
Speaker 6: demand is going to be lower. So for the FED,
Speaker 6: the big question now, and I guess for all of
Speaker 6: us in the economics communities, is you know that terrible
Speaker 6: word stagflation? Does the flation come before the stag or
Speaker 6: the stag before the flation?
Speaker 2: You're a claim away from the three zip code focus
Speaker 2: of this show, Manhattan and Wall Street.
Speaker 3: All you have to deal with, Frankly, Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 2: Is the charm of Austin, Texas, entrepreneurial Texas and your
Speaker 2: work at Colorado Denver.
Speaker 3: I mean, you're not from here. Can the rest of
Speaker 3: America with stand this terrific discussion? Do you look at
Speaker 3: America as one hole within the cacophony now? Or are
Speaker 3: we separate resilient and discrete from the political fire and heat.
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 6: I think that the terrorifts are something that hit very broadly. Now,
Speaker 6: obviously you've got states that are going to be much
Speaker 6: more heavy relied, heavy importers for intermediate goods, and so
Speaker 6: I'm thinking of my state, like Texas is more exposed
Speaker 6: there than say New York. But it will impact businesses
Speaker 6: of all sizes everywhere, and especially small and medium businesses
Speaker 6: cannot absorb the cost increase as much as large multinationals.
Speaker 6: Look at the New York Fed survey that came out
Speaker 6: earlier this week and noted that businesses in its region
Speaker 6: across services and manufacturing were expecting cost increases. And then
Speaker 6: you read the comments within the survey from that survey
Speaker 6: and the ISM manufacturing survey, and there's complete uncertainty about
Speaker 6: the supply chain impacts and where and how do you
Speaker 6: absorb those costs, And it's uncertainty itself.
Speaker 8: Yep, that's right.
Speaker 6: They can start dragging down the economy before taris actually hit.
Speaker 5: So given that badaud would our federal reserves say let's
Speaker 5: do a preemptive cut.
Speaker 6: No, no, okay, absolutely not.
Speaker 8: So they're going to wait to see a hard.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and the data is not rolling over Look at
Speaker 6: the payroll report today it's not rolling over. And so
Speaker 6: what you need to gain consensus on the FED to
Speaker 6: move is something obvious, so that these two sides that
Speaker 6: those that would want to maybe do preemptive or think
Speaker 6: that rates are a little more restrictive than they should be,
Speaker 6: versus those that think we're hanging out here in a
Speaker 6: perfectly fine level. Something has to slap them across the
Speaker 6: face and say, oh my god, we need to move,
Speaker 6: and something like today's peril report or what we're expecting
Speaker 6: on inflation. Prince is not going to do that.
Speaker 2: In honor of Boost School Chicago, there's wonderful seminar. The
Speaker 2: Jerome Powell with comments for Bloomberg will have that sometime
Speaker 2: after twelve noon. This is the panel I was not
Speaker 2: invited to.
Speaker 3: Are you going?
Speaker 9: I'm going, You're going, I'm not, Lisa, Are you going?
Speaker 3: Everyone else is going?
Speaker 6: I guess I got to join the I'm getting a
Speaker 6: free ride there from Bloomberg.
Speaker 7: The car is taking me thereafter.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I used to be That's how I wrote it
Speaker 8: on Friday.
Speaker 2: She is going, I'm not going. Did you notice that?
Speaker 2: Michael Faroli, thank you so much. Ellen's that there.
Speaker 3: Frank Knight nineteen twenty one. We all have to read it.
Speaker 3: They put a gun to our heads that read this,
Speaker 3: or you can't.
Speaker 6: But not many of us read it in real time. Tom,
Speaker 6: tell me what was that?
Speaker 3: Like it? Okay?
Speaker 2: Nineteen twenty one, Frank Knight. I want you to describe
Speaker 2: nighty and uncertainty to our audience worldwide right now. It's
Speaker 2: not like risk. It's not like Las Vegas, is it?
Speaker 6: No, it's very It can be very pervasive. If it's
Speaker 6: sustained now in the twenties and on through say the seventies, right,
Speaker 6: uncertainty we would be reflected in sentiment. But and it
Speaker 6: told you exactly what businesses and households were going to do.
Speaker 6: And I'm talking specifically about University of Michigan, the rise
Speaker 6: of the sentiment surveys in the nineteen fifties onwards. Today,
Speaker 6: uncertainty impacts sentiment, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what
Speaker 6: you're going to do. Right, my husband will tell you
Speaker 6: that I shop when I feel great, I shop when I.
Speaker 9: Feel like help.
Speaker 6: Okay, But if it is sustained at high levels, it
Speaker 6: will start to permeate business investment decisions, household spending decisions.
Speaker 6: When people can't plan and I'm looking at the Trade
Speaker 6: Policy Uncertainty Index, which has gone through the roof, and
Speaker 6: it has surpassed the previous record set in August of
Speaker 6: twenty nineteen. And that is what you're seeing in these surveys,
Speaker 6: and businesses are saying, I can't do this, so we're
Speaker 6: going to use.
Speaker 2: The surveillance sentiment indicator. Are you going to be at
Speaker 2: Fendy Friday afternoon?
Speaker 6: Uh No, I'm probably tapped out on good spending. I've
Speaker 6: also been warned by my husband that went a little
Speaker 6: too far late last year, so I would short luxury
Speaker 6: retail stocks because Zentner has closed her wallet.
Speaker 2: JP Morgan actually out of the report saying enough on
Speaker 2: luxury right now. We'll see how that works out over
Speaker 2: the last number of months. Let's get back to jobs
Speaker 2: Day one more. You're going to write about this SETH
Speaker 2: Carpenter team, you and Thematic Investing. What's your message pre
Speaker 2: your written report on.
Speaker 3: This Job's report. I believe you just said you know what,
Speaker 3: it's resilient.
Speaker 6: So today it's still showing resilient numbers. Now, there are
Speaker 6: a lot of folks that came int this report and
Speaker 6: soid this report doesn't matter because federal layoffs have only
Speaker 6: just begun and it's going to really be reflected in
Speaker 6: the next report, so you are going to get deeper
Speaker 6: cuts to federal in the next report. We saw a
Speaker 6: drop in participation and still the unemployment rate went up.
Speaker 6: That's an interesting combination. Probably reverse next month. I'm looking
Speaker 6: for big outflows from labor supply because of immigration. We
Speaker 6: have not seen that switch yet, even though for six
Speaker 6: months we've seen a really big drop in flows.
Speaker 3: You want to stay. This is going to be a clinic.
Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson's going to join us right now with the
Speaker 2: console formulations. Ellen, if you want to stay, please do it.
Speaker 2: If you have to go to the Boost school panel,
Speaker 2: which I was not invited to, please leave.
Speaker 6: You've got to get my free breakfast. If not from Bloomberg,
Speaker 6: they're from Chicago booth.
Speaker 3: Okay, well this.
Speaker 9: Swinging break this morning, the ex Benedict zagnstin.
Speaker 2: It's great joining us now, Rebecca Pattison after Ellen Zannier
Speaker 2: as well. Rebecca, I got to go to currency market
Speaker 2: is litmus paper the system. Do we have a new
Speaker 2: dollar entrenched given this political chaos?
Speaker 7: I think for the short term we do. The question
Speaker 7: to me is does it continue. I think the dollar
Speaker 7: is down against most peers this year because of worries
Speaker 7: about growth, and we're seeing that reflected and interest rate
Speaker 7: expectations for FED funds. So now three cuts this year,
Speaker 7: So the yield's coming down and FED funds coming down.
Speaker 7: Fed fund expectations coming down is bringing down the dollar.
Speaker 7: But the other part of this tom that we're seeing,
Speaker 7: I believe is repatriation. The last ten years, foreign investors
Speaker 7: thought the US was the only game in town. A
Speaker 7: lot of capital came here. They helped prop up our
Speaker 7: stock market. They're taking their toys home, so they sell
Speaker 7: the dollar and they sell the stocks, and then they
Speaker 7: put it back in their home markets, whether that's Japan, up,
Speaker 7: et cetera.
Speaker 3: I had lunch yesterday. I had the number three value meal.
Speaker 3: It's really really.
Speaker 2: Good at the Priest and Baser Hoss was sitting next
Speaker 2: to me, of course, inventing the modern counsul and foreign
Speaker 2: relations and what Richard Hass would say Rebecca Patterson on
Speaker 2: that is it all devolves back to China. Is China
Speaker 2: part of our domestic financial dynamics?
Speaker 3: Now?
Speaker 7: It has been for decades, I mean, about sixteen percent
Speaker 7: of our imports come from China. So if China is
Speaker 7: continuing to cut prices to make its good more attractive
Speaker 7: in foreign countries like the United States, we're going to
Speaker 7: import that deflation to a degree. A degree, yes, and
Speaker 7: then right now, and this is a really interesting topic,
Speaker 7: not to get too far away from jobs, but we
Speaker 7: are going to see lower Well here's the trick. Do
Speaker 7: we continue to see lower import prices with the tariffs
Speaker 7: we had been over last year? Import prices we had
Speaker 7: deflation in them. That should change now, right, but not
Speaker 7: necessarily from China per se. And then we have lower
Speaker 7: oil prices that deal with Saudi to get Opec to
Speaker 7: increase supply. Oil prices are down almost ten percent year
Speaker 7: to date, although I think they're up a little this morning.
Speaker 7: But then on the other side of things, as Ellen
Speaker 7: was just pointing out, if we start seeing immigration turn negative,
Speaker 7: the labor market's tightening, that's going to be an underlying
Speaker 7: support to wages. So we have these cross currents going on,
Speaker 7: and I think it's going to make the inflation picture
Speaker 7: money and to me, that's still the main priority for
Speaker 7: the FED, and I think we'll hear that come through
Speaker 7: from Chairman palt.
Speaker 5: Today Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is making the rounds of media. Yes,
Speaker 5: and he's talking about how he likes lower yields. We're
Speaker 5: getting yields. I'm not sure this is how he wants
Speaker 5: these yields to go down, but we are getting them lower.
Speaker 8: I guess you know.
Speaker 7: It's interesting, and I know I respect anyone in public
Speaker 7: service and especially to take a job as difficult as that.
Speaker 7: But on one hand, you're hearing Besen say, well, the
Speaker 7: economy isn't ours yet, we need six months to twelve
Speaker 7: months before our policies are reflected, and at the same
Speaker 7: time he's doing a victory lap on lower yields. Well,
Speaker 7: you own it or you don't. But the lower yields,
Speaker 7: to your point, I think are coming primarily because of
Speaker 7: worries overgrowth, not happiness over deregulation and inflation.
Speaker 2: Stay with us after the jobs report and your community
Speaker 2: across the nation.
Speaker 3: Good morning to the West Coast.
Speaker 2: Waking up on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's where
Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson watches as she's with us with a console
Speaker 2: and foreign relations and Paul. All I got to say
Speaker 2: is I got a lift in the market, but then
Speaker 2: it fades avics twenty five into twenty four point two.
Speaker 3: Seven anything as good as a Sweeny yield and four
Speaker 3: basis points. I mean, can I say it's a jumble.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's just newsmaking. But that's sort of what
Speaker 3: we got today.
Speaker 8: Now we've kind of lost a little bit of that
Speaker 8: lift off of it.
Speaker 5: So I guess, Rebecca, for better or worse, we are
Speaker 5: left to And I'm economic policy that's driven a large
Speaker 5: part by soundbites. As related to tariffs, How do you
Speaker 5: kind of frame out the whole terriff discs for clients
Speaker 5: because it shifts every single day.
Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, and you all talk about this so
Speaker 7: well and thoughtfully, but the keyword is uncertainty. Right, we
Speaker 7: have a tariff, we get exemptions, we have a pause.
Speaker 7: It's still coming April second, the shoe will drop, you know.
Speaker 7: And so the fact that we don't have clarity on
Speaker 7: where this is going by degree direction I think we do.
Speaker 7: Tarifs are coming, but how much, how fast, how big?
Speaker 7: And that causes consumers to get nervous and they're pulling
Speaker 7: money out of stocks, and it gets business business is nervous,
Speaker 7: and that goes against this whole idea of Trump's relaunching
Speaker 7: of animal spirits there, which was real.
Speaker 8: I think after the election for a number of weeks, yes.
Speaker 7: People people thought we were going to have deregulation. It
Speaker 7: was going to help M and A and IPOs and
Speaker 7: that would support the stock market and the economy. And
Speaker 7: I think that is all still possible, but right now
Speaker 7: that's on the back burner, and the front burner is
Speaker 7: trade policy and deportation and what all that means.
Speaker 2: The budget lab has after the gyrations a depression of
Speaker 2: a negative zero point four percent on the GDP number.
Speaker 2: I calculate that as a sixteen percent hit to real
Speaker 2: GDP within the dynamic of that real GDP somehow depressed,
Speaker 2: we don't know, and the mystery of inflation for business
Speaker 2: people out there like you sitting on the desk at
Speaker 2: JP Morgan years ago, do you just assume a damp
Speaker 2: and nominal GDP.
Speaker 7: I think we have to assume a more moderate nominal
Speaker 7: GDP number this year. Absolutely.
Speaker 2: Why did jer Own Powell address that he won't address
Speaker 2: that at the Bous School Chicago, where I was not
Speaker 2: invited today.
Speaker 7: Just in case you didn't hear that, Yes.
Speaker 2: Exactly what does the chairman of the FED do with
Speaker 2: a new set of nominal GDP damp it.
Speaker 7: You know, I think after the payrolls today and the
Speaker 7: recent data and the recent tariffs, he's going to just
Speaker 7: continue to say we're data dependent. We're watching right now
Speaker 7: most of the impact from the policy uncertainty is coming
Speaker 7: through consumer and business sentiment. It's quote unquote soft data.
Speaker 7: We aren't We didn't see it really in payrolls today.
Speaker 7: We haven't seen it much in hard data. To the
Speaker 7: degree the coming months see the hard data, then growth
Speaker 7: becomes a bigger concern for the Fed. But right now, again,
Speaker 7: as Ellen and your other guests have said, to date,
Speaker 7: the real economy, the consumer businesses have been resilient. Q
Speaker 7: four earnings were very strong. So it's the question of
Speaker 7: does the past continue, and I think increasingly the market's
Speaker 7: telling us they are nervous that it won't.
Speaker 10: Do.
Speaker 5: You expect growth to materially, you expect to see reports
Speaker 5: coming off the south side on Wall Street.
Speaker 8: We're cutting our economic outlook. We're cutting our economic outlook.
Speaker 5: Our GDP call for twenty five, for twenty six, I
Speaker 5: haven't seen that that much yet yet.
Speaker 7: I've seen a few so JP Morgan, I know, has
Speaker 7: already cut its us GDP forecast twice since the beginning
Speaker 7: of the year. I haven't checked every other bank, but
Speaker 7: I would assume there's similar trends underway at most shops.
Speaker 7: So it is a softer environments getting priced in. And
Speaker 7: it's important to remember that soft growth does not mean
Speaker 7: necessarily bad equity returns. You can have decent equity returns
Speaker 7: with moderate growth. You don't have to have booming growth.
Speaker 7: It's different types of companies that perform well, but don't
Speaker 7: we shouldn't panic.
Speaker 2: Yep, it's CFR Maria Ferragamo writing it up on fentanyl, Canada, Mexico.
Speaker 2: It's maybe outside your remit. What are you learning from
Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations on the politics of the moment?
Speaker 3: What are you leaning over and reading a second time?
Speaker 7: Well, the politics drives the policy, and the policy will
Speaker 7: then influence the financial markets and economy, and then the
Speaker 7: feedback loop goes the other way.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 7: What happens in markets is we're hearing from Bessent about yields,
Speaker 7: then will affect the policy. You know when you mentioned
Speaker 7: Canada Mexico, those politics. I do believe the administration appreciates
Speaker 7: the magnitude of hurt that could come to the United
Speaker 7: States from large prolonged tariffs on Canada and Mexico. And
Speaker 7: I think that's why we did see major exemptions, yes,
Speaker 7: and the pause, but I don't think we're going to
Speaker 7: get them back to zero anytime soon. The challenge is
Speaker 7: that we don't have the fiscal room this time to
Speaker 7: bail out industries. In twenty eighteen, the United States gave
Speaker 7: unprecedented subsidies to the as farmers. We don't where are
Speaker 7: we going to get the money this time from the
Speaker 7: new bitcoin reserve.
Speaker 2: Okay, you can stay with us, because the Bond girls
Speaker 2: just showed of Christina can'st excellent right now, Rebecca's clueless,
Speaker 2: I'm clueless.
Speaker 3: Paul's cluss. What is it? Paul mentioned it earlier. It
Speaker 3: is brilliant. Is there a new vector to lower yields?
Speaker 3: Or is it transient?
Speaker 11: Look, I think it's still transient. I think we're arranged bound,
Speaker 11: and I think you guys have talked about it this morning,
Speaker 11: and there is so much uncertain The uncertainty we have
Speaker 11: is uncertainty going forward, and there's so many push and
Speaker 11: pulls of all of these policies and we've gotten a
Speaker 11: lot more delivery of some of the growth negative policies,
Speaker 11: so flower and inflationary policies and immigration, and we were
Speaker 11: really lacking still on deregulation. And I think your point
Speaker 11: on the fiscal support in twenty eighteen, we're talking about
Speaker 11: fiscal cuts now, so we don't have that cushion when
Speaker 11: we talk about supporting growth with all of these other pullbacks.
Speaker 11: And I think the market's patients on kind of the
Speaker 11: positive boost from drag is waning finn at this point.
Speaker 5: And you look at the bond market on a global
Speaker 5: basis and there's changes in Europe.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean they're significantly unbelievable. We're talking it's generational.
Speaker 5: Ye, some of the things we've seen from absolutely announcements
Speaker 5: out of Germany and so forth. So does that shift
Speaker 5: maybe your focus away from the US to Europe.
Speaker 11: Yeah, So I think that there's a few things. So
Speaker 11: the we're finally I mean, we've been talking for a
Speaker 11: decade maybe more about really getting a step up and
Speaker 11: spending in Europe, certainly from Germany and the will and
Speaker 11: the willingness to have kind of fiscal support there, and
Speaker 11: even from the start of the Ukraine conflict, there was
Speaker 11: an expectation that you'd have more defense spending and we
Speaker 11: haven't seen it. So I think it is really a
Speaker 11: meaningful thing. And you've seen yields in Europe reprice almost
Speaker 11: fifty basis points. I think there's some opportunities there. And
Speaker 11: then Japan is the other market that rates have.
Speaker 3: Made that's truly historic.
Speaker 2: Rebecca Parson a question for Christina Catmany of Invesco.
Speaker 7: Yeah, so when I think about Europe stepping up spending
Speaker 7: and this huge move relatively that we've seen in the
Speaker 7: bond yields, there Germany can afford it. They still have
Speaker 7: relatively low debt to GDP ratios, relatively small deficits. Other
Speaker 7: countries in Europe, including France, Italy, on and on can't.
Speaker 7: They can't afford to have suddenly higher yields. Do you
Speaker 7: think there's any risk that we could get the so
Speaker 7: called Liz Trust moment? Not in Germany per se, but
Speaker 7: perhaps in some of these other markets if this bond
Speaker 7: sell off continues.
Speaker 11: Spreads across Europe have are still so historically tight that
Speaker 11: I that's not an issue that we think is kind
Speaker 11: of on the precipice. Even with kind of this free price.
Speaker 11: So Italy Germany is still one hundred, one hundred and ten.
Speaker 11: I think yesterday when I looked at it, I mean,
Speaker 11: these are historically tight levels in the post twenty eleven
Speaker 11: European sovereign deck crisis. So I don't I think you
Speaker 11: have a lot of room to get there. And I
Speaker 11: think the inflation in the last few years in Europe
Speaker 11: has actually really supported the fiscal situation.
Speaker 3: First chart I looked.
Speaker 2: At yesterday in Bloomberg, Paul, when I came in, it's
Speaker 2: six point fifty two was Italy Germany.
Speaker 7: And it hasn't moved, which is good.
Speaker 8: That's good.
Speaker 7: So here's my other worry. Scott Bessen, our Treasury secretary,
Speaker 7: yesterday and today, both at the European Economic Club of
Speaker 7: New York and then on another channel today basically was
Speaker 7: trashing it's a death star. But he's been on Bloomberg
Speaker 7: a lot, yes, a lot, a lot.
Speaker 3: On the death some amazing headlines continue.
Speaker 7: So thank you. He's trashing the CBO, right, So this
Speaker 7: is the entity that scores our budget proposals, tells us
Speaker 7: what the deaf it's to do. It increasingly feels like
Speaker 7: if they don't like the answer from the CBO, they're
Speaker 7: going to say it doesn't count and move on anyway.
Speaker 7: Do bond like it's not market moving? But at the
Speaker 7: same time, it's putting in a question our institutional processes.
Speaker 7: Do you think bond investors eventually care that we're ignoring
Speaker 7: the math?
Speaker 11: I mean, we certainly do care, And I think the
Speaker 11: dialogue for the last kind of number of years, as
Speaker 11: you've had all these pressures have been why are yields
Speaker 11: not higher? Why are we not pricing in some of
Speaker 11: these fiscal risks. I think it takes the rest of
Speaker 11: the world sometime to get there, but I think we are.
Speaker 11: All of these policy changes and kind of the change
Speaker 11: in tone from the administration towards the rest of the
Speaker 11: world I think is changing the world order, and it
Speaker 11: will change. We'll have negative long term repercussions of how
Speaker 11: the rest of the world interacts with the US and
Speaker 11: thinks about it. I think there are there will be
Speaker 11: lasting effects.
Speaker 3: Paul, try to get a question in there.
Speaker 12: Well, Christine, I just wanted to ask taking over are
Speaker 12: you taking are you filing back your risk here? To
Speaker 12: reflect the fact that we've kind of got a lot
Speaker 12: of uncertainty out there. Maybe we're not seeing it yet
Speaker 12: in the numbers, but it's out there.
Speaker 11: Look, I think that there's been a lot of uncertainty
Speaker 11: leading into the election and coming out of the election,
Speaker 11: it's shifted what it is like where the uncertainty is
Speaker 11: coming from. We still think and I think you guys
Speaker 11: touched on it earlier, a lot of what Shane's the
Speaker 11: narrative in the last week we can have has been
Speaker 11: tier two data, like we haven't seen a lot of
Speaker 11: weakness yet in the year one meaning confidence measures like
Speaker 11: not in CPI and headline like the big numbers. So
Speaker 11: I think that there's still kind of there's some disconnect
Speaker 11: there and we've swung with the sentiment in the market
Speaker 11: has swung a lot more So, I think that there
Speaker 11: are opportunities and it's a matter of with these like
Speaker 11: when you have volatile reprices, where are now the opportunities.
Speaker 11: There's some opportunity maybe more to own front end European
Speaker 11: duration rather than the US with how much we've f reep.
Speaker 8: Rebecca, is there a concern out there?
Speaker 5: Should we be concerned that given some of the unsurty
Speaker 5: that seems to be building in this country that may
Speaker 5: impact our ability to finance our deficit, finance our debt.
Speaker 5: I mean we keep having these auctions and that people
Speaker 5: keep showing up. The people tell me, don't worry about
Speaker 5: the debt until they stop buying our treasury.
Speaker 3: That's the smartest question I've heard this week.
Speaker 2: The bottom line is for our lives, everybody showed up
Speaker 2: at the margin to buy our full faith in credit.
Speaker 3: Rebecca, is that at risk?
Speaker 7: I think longer term, there's a risk that we see
Speaker 7: less demand and not enough demand to meet what will
Speaker 7: have to be increasing supply. So I think that the
Speaker 7: bias of risk is toward a repricing, a new range
Speaker 7: for the ten year yield, which at the end of
Speaker 7: the day is the cost of capital for all of
Speaker 7: us and everyone listening to this show.
Speaker 2: Final Christian Christina Kappany just really important. Then how does
Speaker 2: Investo see full faith and credit repricing.
Speaker 3: Given this turmoil?
Speaker 11: Look, I think we've talked about it many times over
Speaker 11: the last kind of six months. Is you have to
Speaker 11: have term premium in the market, like you still have
Speaker 11: a very flat treasury curve, and there needs to be
Speaker 11: a repricing. So we've talked about four twenty five, four
Speaker 11: to seventy five range intents we're sitting at or below.
Speaker 11: Kind of the sentiment has pushed us to those levels.
Speaker 11: We need to reprice the long end higher. And it's
Speaker 11: not it's not quite. It's not a list trust moment.
Speaker 11: It's not we need to be at six percent ten years,
Speaker 11: but there we do over time need to price that.
Speaker 3: This has been wonderful? Can we we can do this again?
Speaker 8: I think yeah, all start every.
Speaker 2: Job today, get them in here and on a Friday.
Speaker 7: We're enjoying it. We're having fun.
Speaker 3: Chrisman, he drove the market.
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, and our thanks as well to
Speaker 2: Ellen Zettner, Claudia's son terrific hour here.
Speaker 3: We thank all of you.
Speaker 2: Out on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts, and of course,
Speaker 2: on your commute across the nation. Good morning ninety nine
Speaker 2: one FM, Washington ninety two nine in Boston. Bloomberg Surveillance
Speaker 2: our economic indo caters in this job.
Speaker 3: Today.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5: Gina Martin Adams Chaps, market strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence joints
Speaker 5: us here Gina just seems like, you know, we've got
Speaker 5: the S and P kind of seven percent ish off
Speaker 5: of its recent high. A lot of this uncertainty really
Speaker 5: weighing on the market. What kind of conversations are you
Speaker 5: having with clients these days about how to navigate these times?
Speaker 10: Yeah, it varies, frankly fallen, a lot of confusion, a
Speaker 10: lot again, on again, off again. Tariffs have been a
Speaker 10: big source of discussion for the last month or so.
Speaker 10: Now we're starting to talk about weakness in the job
Speaker 10: market that is emerging, not only because of layoffs at
Speaker 10: the federal level with respect to DOJE, but also because
Speaker 10: of public sector layoffs. So this week we had two
Speaker 10: pretty negative employment reports, even though the official payroll report
Speaker 10: today was somewhat benign. Earlier this week we got news
Speaker 10: from ism manufacturers that their employment prospects are now in contraction.
Speaker 10: Then we got layoffs announced by the Challenger team that
Speaker 10: are the highest levels we've seen in a single month
Speaker 10: since back in the pandemic.
Speaker 9: So very clearly there.
Speaker 10: Is some budding weakness in the economy, but it's coming
Speaker 10: in small waves. And not necessarily in all of the
Speaker 10: reports at once, and so investors are trying to weigh
Speaker 10: that out. The other thing that's happening is a non
Speaker 10: economic and discussion, and that is suddenly tech has competition. Right,
Speaker 10: So earlier in January we got the news from Deep Seek.
Speaker 10: Then this week we got news from Ali Baba that
Speaker 10: there are competitors emerging in China in the race for
Speaker 10: AI technology implementation, and that is creating waves in the
Speaker 10: market as well.
Speaker 3: Given the turmoil in the Oval Office. Gina Martin Adams
Speaker 3: given a tweet on Ukraine, what does a long term
Speaker 3: investor do?
Speaker 2: How do you take part in Bloomberg's surveillance but not
Speaker 2: let it affect wisdom out three years?
Speaker 10: I think that's a very great that's a great point,
Speaker 10: and because right now we are caught in a lot
Speaker 10: of short termism. But there is one big trend that
Speaker 10: has emerged so far this year that I think will
Speaker 10: only be exacerbated by the Trump policies, and that is
Speaker 10: performance of non domestic stocks, where we have seen over
Speaker 10: the course of the last several years, US stocks outperform
Speaker 10: materially in an environment of quote unquote US exceptionalism. US
Speaker 10: stocks outperform materially. Tech stocks in particular in the US
Speaker 10: really drove that outperformance. But we're starting to see so
Speaker 10: far this year a rotation to non domestic equities. Europe
Speaker 10: especially is starting to outperform. It's very relative to, very
Speaker 10: related to the Ukraine question that you started with. If
Speaker 10: Europe does ultimately come together with a cohesive strategy for
Speaker 10: defense spending, with the cohesive economic strategy, with the cohesive
Speaker 10: strategy to try to promote growth and promote Europe as
Speaker 10: a European entity, that could be one of the single
Speaker 10: most impactful outcomes of policy that we're not talking about
Speaker 10: as much on a day to day as maybe we should.
Speaker 10: But it's starting to bubble up into the equity market. Likewise,
Speaker 10: China is becoming an investable market once again. As China
Speaker 10: is coming into the scene for AI competitiveness. We're seeing
Speaker 10: Ali Baba make announcements. Deep Sea made the announcement earlier
Speaker 10: this year, so we're starting to see a competitive landscape
Speaker 10: shift in tech which is favoring non domestic assets as well.
Speaker 10: So probably the biggest question you want to ask yourself
Speaker 10: as a global investor is should I be continually so
Speaker 10: overweighted toward the UA, or should I be thinking about
Speaker 10: this new world order creating new opportunities in non domestic equities.
Speaker 10: And our view is that non domestic stocks have been
Speaker 10: the place to be so far in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 10: They may continue to be the leaders in the global
Speaker 10: equity markets as we sort of assess the outcomes of
Speaker 10: this policy making that's happening from Washington.
Speaker 5: Wow, that would be a big, big sea change, because
Speaker 5: I think as recent as late last year GIN we
Speaker 5: were seeing reporting about big flows into US equities by
Speaker 5: international investors.
Speaker 8: In those days you're suggesting maybe waning.
Speaker 10: It appears to be the case, especially because we got
Speaker 10: to a point where US assets were extremely overvalued relative
Speaker 10: to the rest of the world. If you think back
Speaker 10: to twenty twenty one, when stocks peaked just after the pandemic,
Speaker 10: basically every global equity market was overvalued, But when we
Speaker 10: got to twenty twenty four, most global equity markets were
Speaker 10: actually extremely discounted by comparison to the US. We had
Speaker 10: built up an incredible store of optimism toward the US,
Speaker 10: specifically through the last several years. That optimism appears to
Speaker 10: have peaked with twenty twenty four, and now we're going
Speaker 10: through this big adjustment period. As we go through that
Speaker 10: adjustment period in the US as well as globally, it's
Speaker 10: allowing for opportunities to bubble up in the rest of
Speaker 10: the world equity markets. It's allowing for growth to start
Speaker 10: to recover in those non domestic equity markets, and we're
Speaker 10: starting to see capital flow accordingly, not necessarily from the
Speaker 10: US investor abroad yet, but the Europeans very clearly are
Speaker 10: investing in Europe. The Asian markets are clearly focused on China.
Speaker 10: It's up to the US investor if they're going to
Speaker 10: diversify ultimately. But I think we want to question this
Speaker 10: idea in an environment in which we are deglobalizing, in
Speaker 10: an environment in which we are not going to continue
Speaker 10: to lead the global trade order, in the US may
Speaker 10: no longer be the best place to access global growth,
Speaker 10: and we have to think about diversifying our portfolios.
Speaker 1: According to I got.
Speaker 2: Thirty seconds, what are you going to think about this weekend?
Speaker 2: I mean, what's what within the massive Bloomberg intelligence combine? Yeah,
Speaker 2: what's your curiosity this weekend?
Speaker 10: That's a great question. Hopefully not as much on tariffs,
Speaker 10: but I'll still be thinking about tariffs. I think we
Speaker 10: have to think about where these reciprocal tariffs are going
Speaker 10: to go interesting and ultimately what that will mean for
Speaker 10: global trade. I do think we have to really spend
Speaker 10: a lot of time on Europe as well. You know,
Speaker 10: the news out of Germany this week was potentially game changing.
Speaker 10: Where is Europe going to head with respect to defending
Speaker 10: the continent against what's happening with Russia and Ukraine. I
Speaker 10: think that Europe is going to be a big part
Speaker 10: of the conversation over the course of the year.
Speaker 2: This has been wonderful Gina, Martin Adams, and thank you
Speaker 2: so much for this.
Speaker 1: Is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting
Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Speaker 2: Anna Wong joins us right now from the University of Chicago.
Speaker 2: It has been so profound this year that you have
Speaker 2: the gentleman from Penn Kevin has said, quoting her, let
Speaker 2: me read you the first sentence of the pr from
Speaker 2: Caroline levi Att the White House moments ago. In one month,
Speaker 2: in the President Trump, the American economy is soaring back
Speaker 2: to greatness after the economic calamity.
Speaker 3: Left by Joe Biden.
Speaker 2: What is the mathematics on a labor basis when an
Speaker 2: administration begins, it's not when they put the hand on
Speaker 2: the Bible.
Speaker 3: How many months later is it for you?
Speaker 13: Well, according to the administration, it'll be six to twelve
Speaker 13: month when it becomes Trump economy. But in today's Johns
Speaker 13: you for me. I thought that the surprising element in
Speaker 13: the jobs report was that the shrinkage of the federal
Speaker 13: government is apparently already showing evidence in this report. So
Speaker 13: one of the reason why we were expecting a much
Speaker 13: lower print than today was we expect a trinkage in
Speaker 13: the government hiring. Apparently it's even worse than what we thought.
Speaker 13: We had expected a slow down of twenty eight thousand
Speaker 13: in the government sector. It was actually a slow down
Speaker 13: of thirty three thousand.
Speaker 2: Okay, I want to cut to the chase here. This
Speaker 2: run rate of non firm payrolls, which is like the
Speaker 2: speed of the economy. You are acquaimed for gaining that.
Speaker 2: Where is the run rate now? And with policy like those,
Speaker 2: where are we going.
Speaker 13: To be right? So the runway right based on six
Speaker 13: month moving average is about one hundred and ninety thousand,
Speaker 13: and a factor in the overstatement in the birth and
Speaker 13: death model, it's about ninety thousand. However, the employment break
Speaker 13: even to stayalize the unemployment rate has also fallen, so Bostic,
Speaker 13: the Atlanta Fed President, estimates seventy five to one thousand.
Speaker 13: One hundred thousand per month is about break even. We
Speaker 13: estimate one hundred and five thousand, So you know, at
Speaker 13: a pace of ninety thousand is just slightly below the
Speaker 13: break even and so Empowell's worth that means the unemployment
Speaker 13: rate should be inching up about by point one percentage
Speaker 13: point every other month. This is why we expect the
Speaker 13: unemployment rate to hit four point five percent at the
Speaker 13: end of the year. And you calculate this math of
Speaker 13: point one percentage point every other month in terms of
Speaker 13: the dose we're expecting the federal government shrinkage will lead
Speaker 13: to about half a million federal workers going into the
Speaker 13: job market this year. So the question is how can
Speaker 13: the privacy, whether the private sector can quickly absorb this,
Speaker 13: and in today's prime what we saw the strength, which
Speaker 13: surprised me was in the goods producing sector, particularly manufacturing,
Speaker 13: which is not a consoling sign because I think what
Speaker 13: we're seeing is that with the front running of these
Speaker 13: goods ahead of the tariffs, it's ramping up manufacturing activity.
Speaker 13: You see that China's exports soaring, but that's not a
Speaker 13: permanent thing. It's definitely a temporary thing. And as all
Speaker 13: these tariffs come into effect in April second, I think
Speaker 13: what you're going to see is this steep patch up
Speaker 13: and drop off from.
Speaker 3: Moll months ago.
Speaker 2: The Laureate Krugman, agreeing with Anna Lawn that with the
Speaker 2: mid month math here and haul, we're still within a
Speaker 2: Biden economy with today's it's today's statistics. That from Paul
Speaker 2: Krugman out on a substet.
Speaker 5: So we've had a commentary from the administration from National
Speaker 5: Economic Council, has it on Bloomberg Television from the spokesperson.
Speaker 8: We have just heard White House spokesperson.
Speaker 5: Saying this economy's greatest economy is coming back. The President's
Speaker 5: policies are working very well.
Speaker 8: YEP.
Speaker 5: Financial markets are not necess necessarily reflecting that the stock
Speaker 5: market's off seven percent from its high just just recently.
Speaker 5: How do you think this is all going to play out?
Speaker 5: Should we be concerned about tariffs, should we be concerned
Speaker 5: about changes in immigration?
Speaker 8: How do you think about that?
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think I think the on the tearff front,
Speaker 13: I think the financial market is calling the bluff on
Speaker 13: President Trump because they I don't think that a lot
Speaker 13: of the tariffs are priced in the inflation compensations or
Speaker 13: financial markets yet. And uh and I think rightly so
Speaker 13: for them to be doubtful because in the past month
Speaker 13: and a half it seems that President Trump has been
Speaker 13: delaying these waves of tariff and also I think it
Speaker 13: part of it also has to do with this expectation
Speaker 13: of a Trump put on the stock market. And if
Speaker 13: economic activity in the labor market, is the tear going
Speaker 13: to be deteriorating faster because of Doge layoff, it's going
Speaker 13: to call the bluff on President I.
Speaker 2: Just looked away from the screen, Paul, to see if
Speaker 2: my blue school panel invite was in my inis, and
Speaker 2: I look at the lift of the market.
Speaker 8: Op here anaalong Citty in the big chairs. That's what happens.
Speaker 5: So Anna, what are you looking at over the next
Speaker 5: coming weeks, maybe months, to get a sense of where
Speaker 5: this economy is going.
Speaker 13: I think the fastest indicator you can look at that
Speaker 13: reflect the changing, rapidly changing temperature of the labor market
Speaker 13: is the jobless claims that with the federal government jobless claims,
Speaker 13: and in fact it is one of the Bloomberg reporters
Speaker 13: here Mark Nikutt to discover that the Labor Department of
Speaker 13: Labor already published the jobless claims for federal workers yesterday
Speaker 13: for next week, which everybody thought is only going to
Speaker 13: be out next week, and we're seeing a sustained increase
Speaker 13: in jobless claims from federal workers.
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a brutal question, a really rude question.
Speaker 2: Your ex on this and you a lot of us talk,
Speaker 2: you've lived it. Where are those people going to get jobs?
Speaker 2: All those doze exiting people.
Speaker 3: You could have been one of those people. Where are
Speaker 3: they going to get jobs?
Speaker 13: And Tom, that is an excellent question, right. So, for example,
Speaker 13: in today's jobs report, one of the plays which surprised me,
Speaker 13: where I had forecast that lower jock growth is professional
Speaker 13: and businesses, and I now saw that much of the
Speaker 13: pop is in waste management.
Speaker 8: Waste yes, always a growth business.
Speaker 2: So like when Stevie Nicks with Fleetwood Mac. When Stevie
Speaker 2: Nicks was starving, she was in waste management, cleaning houses
Speaker 2: and cleaning the bathrooms. Seriously, where are the people of Bethesda,
Speaker 2: Maryland going to get jobs?
Speaker 13: Exactly? Seriously, Tom, That's exactly the point that the match
Speaker 13: skill mismatch of these government workers who are actually very
Speaker 13: highly skilled and highly specialized.
Speaker 3: You know what, are you a Biden supporter?
Speaker 13: Continue, They're not gonna they want to find jobs and
Speaker 13: administrative for all informational sectors, you know, these these financial
Speaker 13: sector but those sectors hiring a pace is not keeping
Speaker 13: up with the inflows into the unemployment of in those sectors,
Speaker 13: whereas the places where we need more workers are like
Speaker 13: waste management and professional businesses. So there's a skill mismatch.
Speaker 2: Annamon the Bloomberg Economics. She's been on fire over the
Speaker 2: last eighteen months with her analysis of our labor economy.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 2: We got to do the papers, and that means, Lisa Monteore,
Speaker 2: have you recovered from costco?
Speaker 9: I did, I did. I'm good now. It was very sad,
Speaker 9: but shares are still lower this morning. You guys are
Speaker 9: always talking college basketball, right, so I wanted to kind
Speaker 9: of bring it in here, get myself involved in the action.
Speaker 9: This is from the post. Okay, So they're saying that
Speaker 9: March Madness is just that it's it's March. They're saying
Speaker 9: that that that's failed to kind of bring this buzz
Speaker 9: to the regular season. They list a couple of reasons why.
Speaker 9: They talk about, you know, they're competing with football, women's
Speaker 9: college hoops getting more popular because the women actually stay
Speaker 9: in the sport longer, so people get more familiar with them. Well,
Speaker 9: does the guys they you know, move on to the
Speaker 9: NBA coaches coming going the transfer portal NL They say that,
Speaker 9: you know, they've tried to expand the March Madness Tournament
Speaker 9: to sparks. It Did that do it for you? Expanding
Speaker 9: the tournament? Did that spark excitement?
Speaker 10: Yeah?
Speaker 5: I mean it's it's a little bit better, just get
Speaker 5: some more teams in there. But you're right, there's there's
Speaker 5: just there's more and more. I again, I think, just
Speaker 5: speaking from the perspective of Duke, all my guys are
Speaker 5: one and done, and so the our connection with our team,
Speaker 5: and I speak from a lot of alumni, is much
Speaker 5: much less. Now can you extrapolate that out there the
Speaker 5: entire college game?
Speaker 8: I don't know, but so so this weekend it's a
Speaker 8: huge game.
Speaker 3: Let's say there's twenty five gifted players playing. Are there
Speaker 3: any seniors on.
Speaker 8: The Duke team? None to speak of? With just what
Speaker 8: will have say and stay and then again in the.
Speaker 5: Transfer portal, for better or worse, it gives the kids
Speaker 5: freedom to go where they think they can have the
Speaker 5: most success. That's great for them and they deserve that. Now,
Speaker 5: the downside is, you know, there's no stability within teams
Speaker 5: and programs, and therefore you know loyalty.
Speaker 2: David from Washington emails in and says, how much do
Speaker 2: you think who's the guy for Duke?
Speaker 3: The young freshman Connor oh Cooper, flat Cooper? How much
Speaker 3: is Cooper piling in name, image, and likeness.
Speaker 8: Of six seven eight million dollars this year? Probably is
Speaker 8: a freshman?
Speaker 3: Yes, God, let's Lisa ma tail Bunny.
Speaker 9: So next, my God, Okay, so the egg shortage drama continuing,
Speaker 9: price is higher, stores limiting purchases. So now the US
Speaker 9: is on this like global egg hunt. So they have
Speaker 9: a goal here it is they you need up to
Speaker 9: one hundred million eggs within the next month or two.
Speaker 9: So they're going out. They're countries like Poland, France, Indonesia
Speaker 9: to ask about eggs. The problem, like we've talked about,
Speaker 9: you know, the shelf life isn't that great. Eggs still,
Speaker 9: you know they break in transit and there's flu outbreaks
Speaker 9: in other countries too.
Speaker 5: But I sent Lisa, I sent Alex, I sent Carol Master.
Speaker 5: I was in the shop right yesterday in Jersey. Plenty
Speaker 5: of eggs, but they're a little pricey, probably little prize.
Speaker 5: I didn't check the prices, you were right, but they
Speaker 5: were there.
Speaker 9: They're there, so there were signs like limiting.
Speaker 3: Now I opened the old ge.
Speaker 2: We got the little old g E made in nineteen fifty.
Speaker 2: The engine makes loonas And there's my twelve ninety nine
Speaker 2: eggs scaring me in the face.
Speaker 9: You only got five weeks. I got to eat those, okay?
Speaker 9: That the last one. People are as a kid say,
Speaker 9: throwing shade at Meghan Markele, Meghan Sussex. Okay, there you
Speaker 9: want to put it. Her new Netflix show With Love Meghan.
Speaker 9: She cooked right, she tends to be high. She picks berries.
Speaker 9: But it was this pasta dish that she called single
Speaker 9: skillet spaghetti that threw people all over the edge. Okay,
Speaker 9: so what she does is that it's an almond dish.
Speaker 9: She lays the pasta out like raw in the pot,
Speaker 9: and then she throws the tomatoes, the garlic, and the
Speaker 9: olive oil, and then she pours the boiling water on
Speaker 9: top of it. Really, so she lets everything kind of
Speaker 9: cook at once instead of boiling. Separate word. So everyone's
Speaker 9: up in an operar.
Speaker 4: I don't. They don't like it.
Speaker 8: They say, you can't do that, arth to do that?
Speaker 3: About nineteen eighty three.
Speaker 5: Well, I didn't get past the second line, which says
Speaker 5: Megan Sussex.
Speaker 8: Yes, that's her British oil name she goes by. I
Speaker 8: didn't know that was the thing.
Speaker 9: I can see that is her thing now the paper.
Speaker 2: Oh, I could say, there's so many things I could
Speaker 2: say where mister Bloomberg would call me up put the
Speaker 2: surveillance cork.
Speaker 9: But the reason she says it gives it a creamy
Speaker 9: sure because it keeps starching it. So that's why she
Speaker 9: does it that way, and it's a less pot less
Speaker 9: pots to wash.
Speaker 2: Lisato, thank you so much, greatly appreciated the newspapers with
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo.
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
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