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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube right now.

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Speaker 2: Claudia Sam joins as chief Economist at News Century Advisors

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Speaker 2: or PhD at Michigan with Giant of Inflation Analysis Matthew D.

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Speaker 3: Shapiro. Claudia, I gotta get this out of the way

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Speaker 3: before we go to jobs.

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Speaker 2: You are acclaimed for the same rule. There seems to

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Speaker 2: be a bet of slowing GDP. Are you in any

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Speaker 2: way on a recession, not an NBR recession, but are

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Speaker 2: you with a Sam rule in any way looking at

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Speaker 2: a new analysis of slowdown?

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Speaker 4: So absolutely looking at believe market any signs of slow down.

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Speaker 4: We are not at a place where we're close to

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Speaker 4: kind of that historical trigger for this SOM rule. I

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Speaker 4: mean we would need to, you know, see the unemployment

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Speaker 4: rate probably rise this year up to four and a

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Speaker 4: half percent before we start to get kind of in

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Speaker 4: that danger zone. But of course there are certain you know,

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Speaker 4: sectors looking at something like government the government sector. We

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Speaker 4: could see a contraction there, and it doesn't necessarily have

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Speaker 4: to show up as a national contraction. So there's a

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Speaker 4: lot to watch in the labor market in terms of.

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Speaker 2: Things, Claudiah with revision, I got two months and we'll

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Speaker 2: get much more later of one hundred and thirty eight

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Speaker 2: thousand and sixty day runway.

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Speaker 3: Is that a buoyant job economy.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure i'd use the word buoyant, but you

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Speaker 4: know that these numbers added like at a first look,

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Speaker 4: are I mean, there's solid, they're you know, showing you know,

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Speaker 4: the difference between one hundred and one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 4: thousand on the month is not like, let's you know,

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Speaker 4: let's be real about the statistical precision of what we're

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Speaker 4: doing here. But it's not you know, it's kind of

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Speaker 4: a tre treading water that picked up was you know,

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Speaker 4: a tenth, but again also staying very low. So you know,

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Speaker 4: I think that's it's a I mean, this report we

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Speaker 4: should see a lot as a baseline before we're headed

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Speaker 4: into what is been a very chaotic period with Harris

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Speaker 4: and with the Doge action. So you know, it's you know,

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Speaker 4: the better this was today, that's more resilient. So it's great,

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Speaker 4: it's you know, it's not great, but it's good.

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Speaker 3: Well, I got a futures lifted out at Paul.

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Speaker 2: Can we describe how unfair it is to Claudiusamer to

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Speaker 2: warbled gaily here with the data come out the green

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Speaker 2: Span statistic, Paul, the under employment rate from seven and

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Speaker 2: a half percent last month out to eight percent this month.

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Speaker 2: So there's just one tea leaf within the bucket of

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Speaker 2: the ship of tea.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, a little bit again on some of these revisions

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Speaker 5: coming in lower from last month as well. We want

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Speaker 5: to put that in context as well. Uh, Claudia, how

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Speaker 5: do you think the Federal Reserve will look at this

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Speaker 5: data print here today? I think so.

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Speaker 4: I don't see anything here that will will change their

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Speaker 4: near term course. So they're not they're not set up

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Speaker 4: to be cutting cutting interest rates. I don't you know

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Speaker 4: this doesn't you know a really negative print might have

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Speaker 4: a really weak print, might have like kind of pushed

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Speaker 4: some of you know, that the growth issues might come

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Speaker 4: up more quickly. I think this still puts them on

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Speaker 4: and just puts them in their wait and see. This

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Speaker 4: is not that far off of expectations. This is not

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Speaker 4: this is a sustainable number, and.

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Speaker 2: We see it within the market. With ten, you're really

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Speaker 2: lifting up. Futures come up a bit. VIX is better behaved.

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Speaker 2: Claudia Sam, thank you so much. Please call us if

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Speaker 2: the sum rule clicks in here anytime twenty four to seven.

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Speaker 2: Will take call Claudia Sam with New Century Advisors with

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Speaker 2: us in the studio right now, we are on We

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Speaker 2: have one of the best students of the American consumer

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Speaker 2: in American economics. Ellen Zentner joins from Morgan Stanley. Let

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Speaker 2: me go to the wheelhouse, Ellen, before we get to

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Speaker 2: the jobs day.

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Speaker 3: With the absolute.

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Speaker 2: Historic moment including inflation, sea change in Japan, the Europe

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Speaker 2: of yesterday. You know, I can't imagine Morgan Stanley economics

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Speaker 2: in the last twenty four hours.

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Speaker 3: Is there a resilience to the American consumer.

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Speaker 6: There's a resilience depending on what income group you're in.

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Speaker 6: And the thing that I'm concerned about is that we've

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Speaker 6: had all our eggs in one basket for some time now.

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Speaker 6: With the wealthy propping up aggregate spending in the US

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Speaker 6: and with tariffs coming on goods, it's going to disproportionately

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Speaker 6: hit lower income groups. Create that continued drag on them.

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Speaker 7: The wealthy groups.

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Speaker 6: Probably won't be there to pick up the slack in

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Speaker 6: good spending. We're spending on services, and services aren't where

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Speaker 6: tariffs are hitting.

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Speaker 5: So in twenty twenty five, I know one of the

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Speaker 5: themes and you guys think about that, the big themes

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Speaker 5: out there that could be moving the market, and we

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Speaker 5: did not see it necessarily in this job's data. But

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Speaker 5: you know, if you're going to have tariffs potentially an

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Speaker 5: impact on a negative impact on growth, economic growth, maybe

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Speaker 5: an impact on inflation moving higher, changes in immigration, also

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Speaker 5: maybe having some inflationary at some growth issues. When do

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Speaker 5: you think we'll start to see that in the data?

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Speaker 5: Is that a second half of twenty five issue?

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Speaker 6: Yes, I think depending on which I don't know what's

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Speaker 6: going to happen from day to day, just or hour

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Speaker 6: to hour, minute to minute, but depending on when tariffs

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Speaker 6: are put in place, and we know already they're coming

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Speaker 6: through from China. The reason why the FED has to

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Speaker 6: remain data dependent is because tariffs fall here, there, and everywhere,

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Speaker 6: and you don't know how much of it it's going

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Speaker 6: to be absorbed by manufacturers along intermediate goods route or

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Speaker 6: FONT to final goods for consumers, and so you just

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Speaker 6: have to wait to see what happens. I suspect that

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Speaker 6: households in the US are not indiscriminate buyers here, that

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Speaker 6: we do have a degree of price tolerance, and that

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Speaker 6: you are going to get a hit to aggregate demand.

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Speaker 6: And as a policymaker, you should look through that the

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Speaker 6: price effects because eventually they're going to come off because

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Speaker 6: demand is going to be lower. So for the FED,

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Speaker 6: the big question now, and I guess for all of

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Speaker 6: us in the economics communities, is you know that terrible

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Speaker 6: word stagflation? Does the flation come before the stag or

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Speaker 6: the stag before the flation?

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Speaker 2: You're a claim away from the three zip code focus

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Speaker 2: of this show, Manhattan and Wall Street.

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Speaker 3: All you have to deal with, Frankly, Morgan Stanley.

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Speaker 2: Is the charm of Austin, Texas, entrepreneurial Texas and your

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Speaker 2: work at Colorado Denver.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you're not from here. Can the rest of

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Speaker 3: America with stand this terrific discussion? Do you look at

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Speaker 3: America as one hole within the cacophony now? Or are

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Speaker 3: we separate resilient and discrete from the political fire and heat.

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 6: I think that the terrorifts are something that hit very broadly. Now,

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Speaker 6: obviously you've got states that are going to be much

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Speaker 6: more heavy relied, heavy importers for intermediate goods, and so

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Speaker 6: I'm thinking of my state, like Texas is more exposed

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Speaker 6: there than say New York. But it will impact businesses

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Speaker 6: of all sizes everywhere, and especially small and medium businesses

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Speaker 6: cannot absorb the cost increase as much as large multinationals.

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Speaker 6: Look at the New York Fed survey that came out

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Speaker 6: earlier this week and noted that businesses in its region

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Speaker 6: across services and manufacturing were expecting cost increases. And then

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Speaker 6: you read the comments within the survey from that survey

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Speaker 6: and the ISM manufacturing survey, and there's complete uncertainty about

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Speaker 6: the supply chain impacts and where and how do you

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Speaker 6: absorb those costs, And it's uncertainty itself.

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Speaker 8: Yep, that's right.

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Speaker 6: They can start dragging down the economy before taris actually hit.

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Speaker 5: So given that badaud would our federal reserves say let's

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Speaker 5: do a preemptive cut.

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Speaker 6: No, no, okay, absolutely not.

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Speaker 8: So they're going to wait to see a hard.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and the data is not rolling over Look at

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Speaker 6: the payroll report today it's not rolling over. And so

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Speaker 6: what you need to gain consensus on the FED to

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Speaker 6: move is something obvious, so that these two sides that

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Speaker 6: those that would want to maybe do preemptive or think

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Speaker 6: that rates are a little more restrictive than they should be,

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Speaker 6: versus those that think we're hanging out here in a

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Speaker 6: perfectly fine level. Something has to slap them across the

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Speaker 6: face and say, oh my god, we need to move,

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Speaker 6: and something like today's peril report or what we're expecting

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Speaker 6: on inflation. Prince is not going to do that.

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Speaker 2: In honor of Boost School Chicago, there's wonderful seminar. The

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Speaker 2: Jerome Powell with comments for Bloomberg will have that sometime

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Speaker 2: after twelve noon. This is the panel I was not

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Speaker 2: invited to.

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Speaker 3: Are you going?

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Speaker 9: I'm going, You're going, I'm not, Lisa, Are you going?

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Speaker 3: Everyone else is going?

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Speaker 6: I guess I got to join the I'm getting a

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Speaker 6: free ride there from Bloomberg.

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Speaker 7: The car is taking me thereafter.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I used to be That's how I wrote it

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Speaker 8: on Friday.

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Speaker 2: She is going, I'm not going. Did you notice that?

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Speaker 2: Michael Faroli, thank you so much. Ellen's that there.

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Speaker 3: Frank Knight nineteen twenty one. We all have to read it.

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Speaker 3: They put a gun to our heads that read this,

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Speaker 3: or you can't.

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Speaker 6: But not many of us read it in real time. Tom,

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Speaker 6: tell me what was that?

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Speaker 3: Like it? Okay?

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Speaker 2: Nineteen twenty one, Frank Knight. I want you to describe

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Speaker 2: nighty and uncertainty to our audience worldwide right now. It's

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Speaker 2: not like risk. It's not like Las Vegas, is it?

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Speaker 6: No, it's very It can be very pervasive. If it's

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Speaker 6: sustained now in the twenties and on through say the seventies, right,

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Speaker 6: uncertainty we would be reflected in sentiment. But and it

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Speaker 6: told you exactly what businesses and households were going to do.

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Speaker 6: And I'm talking specifically about University of Michigan, the rise

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Speaker 6: of the sentiment surveys in the nineteen fifties onwards. Today,

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Speaker 6: uncertainty impacts sentiment, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what

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Speaker 6: you're going to do. Right, my husband will tell you

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Speaker 6: that I shop when I feel great, I shop when I.

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Speaker 9: Feel like help.

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Speaker 6: Okay, But if it is sustained at high levels, it

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Speaker 6: will start to permeate business investment decisions, household spending decisions.

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Speaker 6: When people can't plan and I'm looking at the Trade

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Speaker 6: Policy Uncertainty Index, which has gone through the roof, and

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Speaker 6: it has surpassed the previous record set in August of

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Speaker 6: twenty nineteen. And that is what you're seeing in these surveys,

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Speaker 6: and businesses are saying, I can't do this, so we're

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Speaker 6: going to use.

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Speaker 2: The surveillance sentiment indicator. Are you going to be at

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Speaker 2: Fendy Friday afternoon?

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Speaker 6: Uh No, I'm probably tapped out on good spending. I've

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Speaker 6: also been warned by my husband that went a little

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Speaker 6: too far late last year, so I would short luxury

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Speaker 6: retail stocks because Zentner has closed her wallet.

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Speaker 2: JP Morgan actually out of the report saying enough on

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Speaker 2: luxury right now. We'll see how that works out over

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Speaker 2: the last number of months. Let's get back to jobs

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Speaker 2: Day one more. You're going to write about this SETH

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Speaker 2: Carpenter team, you and Thematic Investing. What's your message pre

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Speaker 2: your written report on.

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Speaker 3: This Job's report. I believe you just said you know what,

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Speaker 3: it's resilient.

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Speaker 6: So today it's still showing resilient numbers. Now, there are

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Speaker 6: a lot of folks that came int this report and

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Speaker 6: soid this report doesn't matter because federal layoffs have only

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Speaker 6: just begun and it's going to really be reflected in

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Speaker 6: the next report, so you are going to get deeper

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Speaker 6: cuts to federal in the next report. We saw a

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Speaker 6: drop in participation and still the unemployment rate went up.

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Speaker 6: That's an interesting combination. Probably reverse next month. I'm looking

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Speaker 6: for big outflows from labor supply because of immigration. We

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Speaker 6: have not seen that switch yet, even though for six

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Speaker 6: months we've seen a really big drop in flows.

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Speaker 3: You want to stay. This is going to be a clinic.

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Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson's going to join us right now with the

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Speaker 2: console formulations. Ellen, if you want to stay, please do it.

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Speaker 2: If you have to go to the Boost school panel,

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Speaker 2: which I was not invited to, please leave.

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Speaker 6: You've got to get my free breakfast. If not from Bloomberg,

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Speaker 6: they're from Chicago booth.

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Speaker 3: Okay, well this.

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Speaker 9: Swinging break this morning, the ex Benedict zagnstin.

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Speaker 2: It's great joining us now, Rebecca Pattison after Ellen Zannier

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Speaker 2: as well. Rebecca, I got to go to currency market

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Speaker 2: is litmus paper the system. Do we have a new

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Speaker 2: dollar entrenched given this political chaos?

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Speaker 7: I think for the short term we do. The question

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Speaker 7: to me is does it continue. I think the dollar

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Speaker 7: is down against most peers this year because of worries

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Speaker 7: about growth, and we're seeing that reflected and interest rate

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Speaker 7: expectations for FED funds. So now three cuts this year,

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Speaker 7: So the yield's coming down and FED funds coming down.

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Speaker 7: Fed fund expectations coming down is bringing down the dollar.

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Speaker 7: But the other part of this tom that we're seeing,

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Speaker 7: I believe is repatriation. The last ten years, foreign investors

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Speaker 7: thought the US was the only game in town. A

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Speaker 7: lot of capital came here. They helped prop up our

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Speaker 7: stock market. They're taking their toys home, so they sell

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Speaker 7: the dollar and they sell the stocks, and then they

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Speaker 7: put it back in their home markets, whether that's Japan, up,

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Speaker 7: et cetera.

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Speaker 3: I had lunch yesterday. I had the number three value meal.

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Speaker 3: It's really really.

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Speaker 2: Good at the Priest and Baser Hoss was sitting next

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Speaker 2: to me, of course, inventing the modern counsul and foreign

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Speaker 2: relations and what Richard Hass would say Rebecca Patterson on

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Speaker 2: that is it all devolves back to China. Is China

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Speaker 2: part of our domestic financial dynamics?

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Speaker 3: Now?

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Speaker 7: It has been for decades, I mean, about sixteen percent

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Speaker 7: of our imports come from China. So if China is

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Speaker 7: continuing to cut prices to make its good more attractive

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Speaker 7: in foreign countries like the United States, we're going to

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Speaker 7: import that deflation to a degree. A degree, yes, and

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Speaker 7: then right now, and this is a really interesting topic,

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Speaker 7: not to get too far away from jobs, but we

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Speaker 7: are going to see lower Well here's the trick. Do

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Speaker 7: we continue to see lower import prices with the tariffs

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Speaker 7: we had been over last year? Import prices we had

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Speaker 7: deflation in them. That should change now, right, but not

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Speaker 7: necessarily from China per se. And then we have lower

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Speaker 7: oil prices that deal with Saudi to get Opec to

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Speaker 7: increase supply. Oil prices are down almost ten percent year

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Speaker 7: to date, although I think they're up a little this morning.

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Speaker 7: But then on the other side of things, as Ellen

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Speaker 7: was just pointing out, if we start seeing immigration turn negative,

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Speaker 7: the labor market's tightening, that's going to be an underlying

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Speaker 7: support to wages. So we have these cross currents going on,

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Speaker 7: and I think it's going to make the inflation picture

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Speaker 7: money and to me, that's still the main priority for

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Speaker 7: the FED, and I think we'll hear that come through

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Speaker 7: from Chairman palt.

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Speaker 5: Today Treasury Secretary Scott Besson is making the rounds of media. Yes,

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Speaker 5: and he's talking about how he likes lower yields. We're

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Speaker 5: getting yields. I'm not sure this is how he wants

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Speaker 5: these yields to go down, but we are getting them lower.

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Speaker 8: I guess you know.

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Speaker 7: It's interesting, and I know I respect anyone in public

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Speaker 7: service and especially to take a job as difficult as that.

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Speaker 7: But on one hand, you're hearing Besen say, well, the

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Speaker 7: economy isn't ours yet, we need six months to twelve

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Speaker 7: months before our policies are reflected, and at the same

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Speaker 7: time he's doing a victory lap on lower yields. Well,

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Speaker 7: you own it or you don't. But the lower yields,

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Speaker 7: to your point, I think are coming primarily because of

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Speaker 7: worries overgrowth, not happiness over deregulation and inflation.

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Speaker 2: Stay with us after the jobs report and your community

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Speaker 2: across the nation.

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Speaker 3: Good morning to the West Coast.

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Speaker 2: Waking up on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. It's where

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Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson watches as she's with us with a console

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Speaker 2: and foreign relations and Paul. All I got to say

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Speaker 2: is I got a lift in the market, but then

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Speaker 2: it fades avics twenty five into twenty four point two.

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Speaker 3: Seven anything as good as a Sweeny yield and four

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Speaker 3: basis points. I mean, can I say it's a jumble.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it's just newsmaking. But that's sort of what

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Speaker 3: we got today.

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Speaker 8: Now we've kind of lost a little bit of that

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Speaker 8: lift off of it.

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Speaker 5: So I guess, Rebecca, for better or worse, we are

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Speaker 5: left to And I'm economic policy that's driven a large

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Speaker 5: part by soundbites. As related to tariffs, How do you

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Speaker 5: kind of frame out the whole terriff discs for clients

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Speaker 5: because it shifts every single day.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, I mean, and you all talk about this so

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Speaker 7: well and thoughtfully, but the keyword is uncertainty. Right, we

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Speaker 7: have a tariff, we get exemptions, we have a pause.

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Speaker 7: It's still coming April second, the shoe will drop, you know.

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Speaker 7: And so the fact that we don't have clarity on

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Speaker 7: where this is going by degree direction I think we do.

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Speaker 7: Tarifs are coming, but how much, how fast, how big?

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Speaker 7: And that causes consumers to get nervous and they're pulling

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Speaker 7: money out of stocks, and it gets business business is nervous,

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Speaker 7: and that goes against this whole idea of Trump's relaunching

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Speaker 7: of animal spirits there, which was real.

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Speaker 8: I think after the election for a number of weeks, yes.

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Speaker 7: People people thought we were going to have deregulation. It

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Speaker 7: was going to help M and A and IPOs and

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Speaker 7: that would support the stock market and the economy. And

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Speaker 7: I think that is all still possible, but right now

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Speaker 7: that's on the back burner, and the front burner is

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Speaker 7: trade policy and deportation and what all that means.

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Speaker 2: The budget lab has after the gyrations a depression of

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Speaker 2: a negative zero point four percent on the GDP number.

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Speaker 2: I calculate that as a sixteen percent hit to real

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Speaker 2: GDP within the dynamic of that real GDP somehow depressed,

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Speaker 2: we don't know, and the mystery of inflation for business

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Speaker 2: people out there like you sitting on the desk at

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Speaker 2: JP Morgan years ago, do you just assume a damp

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Speaker 2: and nominal GDP.

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Speaker 7: I think we have to assume a more moderate nominal

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Speaker 7: GDP number this year. Absolutely.

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Speaker 2: Why did jer Own Powell address that he won't address

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Speaker 2: that at the Bous School Chicago, where I was not

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Speaker 2: invited today.

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Speaker 7: Just in case you didn't hear that, Yes.

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Speaker 2: Exactly what does the chairman of the FED do with

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Speaker 2: a new set of nominal GDP damp it.

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Speaker 7: You know, I think after the payrolls today and the

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Speaker 7: recent data and the recent tariffs, he's going to just

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Speaker 7: continue to say we're data dependent. We're watching right now

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Speaker 7: most of the impact from the policy uncertainty is coming

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Speaker 7: through consumer and business sentiment. It's quote unquote soft data.

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Speaker 7: We aren't We didn't see it really in payrolls today.

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Speaker 7: We haven't seen it much in hard data. To the

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Speaker 7: degree the coming months see the hard data, then growth

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Speaker 7: becomes a bigger concern for the Fed. But right now, again,

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Speaker 7: as Ellen and your other guests have said, to date,

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Speaker 7: the real economy, the consumer businesses have been resilient. Q

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Speaker 7: four earnings were very strong. So it's the question of

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Speaker 7: does the past continue, and I think increasingly the market's

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Speaker 7: telling us they are nervous that it won't.

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Speaker 10: Do.

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Speaker 5: You expect growth to materially, you expect to see reports

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Speaker 5: coming off the south side on Wall Street.

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Speaker 8: We're cutting our economic outlook. We're cutting our economic outlook.

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Speaker 5: Our GDP call for twenty five, for twenty six, I

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Speaker 5: haven't seen that that much yet yet.

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Speaker 7: I've seen a few so JP Morgan, I know, has

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Speaker 7: already cut its us GDP forecast twice since the beginning

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Speaker 7: of the year. I haven't checked every other bank, but

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Speaker 7: I would assume there's similar trends underway at most shops.

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Speaker 7: So it is a softer environments getting priced in. And

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Speaker 7: it's important to remember that soft growth does not mean

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Speaker 7: necessarily bad equity returns. You can have decent equity returns

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Speaker 7: with moderate growth. You don't have to have booming growth.

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Speaker 7: It's different types of companies that perform well, but don't

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Speaker 7: we shouldn't panic.

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Speaker 2: Yep, it's CFR Maria Ferragamo writing it up on fentanyl, Canada, Mexico.

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Speaker 2: It's maybe outside your remit. What are you learning from

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Speaker 2: the Council on Foreign Relations on the politics of the moment?

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Speaker 3: What are you leaning over and reading a second time?

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Speaker 7: Well, the politics drives the policy, and the policy will

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Speaker 7: then influence the financial markets and economy, and then the

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Speaker 7: feedback loop goes the other way.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 7: What happens in markets is we're hearing from Bessent about yields,

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Speaker 7: then will affect the policy. You know when you mentioned

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Speaker 7: Canada Mexico, those politics. I do believe the administration appreciates

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Speaker 7: the magnitude of hurt that could come to the United

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Speaker 7: States from large prolonged tariffs on Canada and Mexico. And

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Speaker 7: I think that's why we did see major exemptions, yes,

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Speaker 7: and the pause, but I don't think we're going to

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Speaker 7: get them back to zero anytime soon. The challenge is

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Speaker 7: that we don't have the fiscal room this time to

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Speaker 7: bail out industries. In twenty eighteen, the United States gave

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Speaker 7: unprecedented subsidies to the as farmers. We don't where are

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Speaker 7: we going to get the money this time from the

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Speaker 7: new bitcoin reserve.

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Speaker 2: Okay, you can stay with us, because the Bond girls

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Speaker 2: just showed of Christina can'st excellent right now, Rebecca's clueless,

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Speaker 2: I'm clueless.

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Speaker 3: Paul's cluss. What is it? Paul mentioned it earlier. It

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Speaker 3: is brilliant. Is there a new vector to lower yields?

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Speaker 3: Or is it transient?

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Speaker 11: Look, I think it's still transient. I think we're arranged bound,

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Speaker 11: and I think you guys have talked about it this morning,

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Speaker 11: and there is so much uncertain The uncertainty we have

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Speaker 11: is uncertainty going forward, and there's so many push and

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Speaker 11: pulls of all of these policies and we've gotten a

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Speaker 11: lot more delivery of some of the growth negative policies,

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Speaker 11: so flower and inflationary policies and immigration, and we were

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Speaker 11: really lacking still on deregulation. And I think your point

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Speaker 11: on the fiscal support in twenty eighteen, we're talking about

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Speaker 11: fiscal cuts now, so we don't have that cushion when

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Speaker 11: we talk about supporting growth with all of these other pullbacks.

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Speaker 11: And I think the market's patients on kind of the

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Speaker 11: positive boost from drag is waning finn at this point.

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Speaker 5: And you look at the bond market on a global

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Speaker 5: basis and there's changes in Europe.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean they're significantly unbelievable. We're talking it's generational.

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Speaker 5: Ye, some of the things we've seen from absolutely announcements

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Speaker 5: out of Germany and so forth. So does that shift

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Speaker 5: maybe your focus away from the US to Europe.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, So I think that there's a few things. So

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Speaker 11: the we're finally I mean, we've been talking for a

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Speaker 11: decade maybe more about really getting a step up and

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Speaker 11: spending in Europe, certainly from Germany and the will and

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Speaker 11: the willingness to have kind of fiscal support there, and

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Speaker 11: even from the start of the Ukraine conflict, there was

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Speaker 11: an expectation that you'd have more defense spending and we

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Speaker 11: haven't seen it. So I think it is really a

439
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,560
Speaker 11: meaningful thing. And you've seen yields in Europe reprice almost

440
00:22:07,600 --> 00:22:10,240
Speaker 11: fifty basis points. I think there's some opportunities there. And

441
00:22:10,240 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 11: then Japan is the other market that rates have.

442
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:13,560
Speaker 3: Made that's truly historic.

443
00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:17,679
Speaker 2: Rebecca Parson a question for Christina Catmany of Invesco.

444
00:22:18,359 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 7: Yeah, so when I think about Europe stepping up spending

445
00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,200
Speaker 7: and this huge move relatively that we've seen in the

446
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 7: bond yields, there Germany can afford it. They still have

447
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:32,880
Speaker 7: relatively low debt to GDP ratios, relatively small deficits. Other

448
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:36,919
Speaker 7: countries in Europe, including France, Italy, on and on can't.

449
00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 7: They can't afford to have suddenly higher yields. Do you

450
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 7: think there's any risk that we could get the so

451
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 7: called Liz Trust moment? Not in Germany per se, but

452
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:47,680
Speaker 7: perhaps in some of these other markets if this bond

453
00:22:47,760 --> 00:22:48,840
Speaker 7: sell off continues.

454
00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 11: Spreads across Europe have are still so historically tight that

455
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:55,640
Speaker 11: I that's not an issue that we think is kind

456
00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 11: of on the precipice. Even with kind of this free price.

457
00:22:58,840 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 11: So Italy Germany is still one hundred, one hundred and ten.

458
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 11: I think yesterday when I looked at it, I mean,

459
00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:08,119
Speaker 11: these are historically tight levels in the post twenty eleven

460
00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 11: European sovereign deck crisis. So I don't I think you

461
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:14,800
Speaker 11: have a lot of room to get there. And I

462
00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,080
Speaker 11: think the inflation in the last few years in Europe

463
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,320
Speaker 11: has actually really supported the fiscal situation.

464
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:20,840
Speaker 3: First chart I looked.

465
00:23:20,560 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 2: At yesterday in Bloomberg, Paul, when I came in, it's

466
00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:26,000
Speaker 2: six point fifty two was Italy Germany.

467
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 7: And it hasn't moved, which is good.

468
00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 8: That's good.

469
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 7: So here's my other worry. Scott Bessen, our Treasury secretary,

470
00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 7: yesterday and today, both at the European Economic Club of

471
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 7: New York and then on another channel today basically was

472
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 7: trashing it's a death star. But he's been on Bloomberg

473
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 7: a lot, yes, a lot, a lot.

474
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 3: On the death some amazing headlines continue.

475
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:55,760
Speaker 7: So thank you. He's trashing the CBO, right, So this

476
00:23:55,840 --> 00:23:58,879
Speaker 7: is the entity that scores our budget proposals, tells us

477
00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,439
Speaker 7: what the deaf it's to do. It increasingly feels like

478
00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 7: if they don't like the answer from the CBO, they're

479
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:07,800
Speaker 7: going to say it doesn't count and move on anyway.

480
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:11,440
Speaker 7: Do bond like it's not market moving? But at the

481
00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:14,640
Speaker 7: same time, it's putting in a question our institutional processes.

482
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 7: Do you think bond investors eventually care that we're ignoring

483
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:19,280
Speaker 7: the math?

484
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 11: I mean, we certainly do care, And I think the

485
00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,160
Speaker 11: dialogue for the last kind of number of years, as

486
00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 11: you've had all these pressures have been why are yields

487
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:31,679
Speaker 11: not higher? Why are we not pricing in some of

488
00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 11: these fiscal risks. I think it takes the rest of

489
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:38,119
Speaker 11: the world sometime to get there, but I think we are.

490
00:24:38,280 --> 00:24:43,119
Speaker 11: All of these policy changes and kind of the change

491
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,520
Speaker 11: in tone from the administration towards the rest of the

492
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 11: world I think is changing the world order, and it

493
00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 11: will change. We'll have negative long term repercussions of how

494
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:53,679
Speaker 11: the rest of the world interacts with the US and

495
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 11: thinks about it. I think there are there will be

496
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:56,199
Speaker 11: lasting effects.

497
00:24:56,280 --> 00:24:58,040
Speaker 3: Paul, try to get a question in there.

498
00:24:58,840 --> 00:25:01,200
Speaker 12: Well, Christine, I just wanted to ask taking over are

499
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 12: you taking are you filing back your risk here? To

500
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,119
Speaker 12: reflect the fact that we've kind of got a lot

501
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 12: of uncertainty out there. Maybe we're not seeing it yet

502
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:11,399
Speaker 12: in the numbers, but it's out there.

503
00:25:11,800 --> 00:25:13,880
Speaker 11: Look, I think that there's been a lot of uncertainty

504
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 11: leading into the election and coming out of the election,

505
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 11: it's shifted what it is like where the uncertainty is

506
00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:22,200
Speaker 11: coming from. We still think and I think you guys

507
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,480
Speaker 11: touched on it earlier, a lot of what Shane's the

508
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,480
Speaker 11: narrative in the last week we can have has been

509
00:25:26,520 --> 00:25:28,919
Speaker 11: tier two data, like we haven't seen a lot of

510
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 11: weakness yet in the year one meaning confidence measures like

511
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,439
Speaker 11: not in CPI and headline like the big numbers. So

512
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,360
Speaker 11: I think that there's still kind of there's some disconnect

513
00:25:43,400 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 11: there and we've swung with the sentiment in the market

514
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 11: has swung a lot more So, I think that there

515
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 11: are opportunities and it's a matter of with these like

516
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 11: when you have volatile reprices, where are now the opportunities.

517
00:25:54,800 --> 00:25:57,720
Speaker 11: There's some opportunity maybe more to own front end European

518
00:25:57,760 --> 00:25:59,960
Speaker 11: duration rather than the US with how much we've f reep.

519
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:02,359
Speaker 8: Rebecca, is there a concern out there?

520
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,560
Speaker 5: Should we be concerned that given some of the unsurty

521
00:26:05,600 --> 00:26:09,480
Speaker 5: that seems to be building in this country that may

522
00:26:09,520 --> 00:26:12,400
Speaker 5: impact our ability to finance our deficit, finance our debt.

523
00:26:12,400 --> 00:26:14,120
Speaker 5: I mean we keep having these auctions and that people

524
00:26:14,200 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 5: keep showing up. The people tell me, don't worry about

525
00:26:16,320 --> 00:26:19,000
Speaker 5: the debt until they stop buying our treasury.

526
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,320
Speaker 3: That's the smartest question I've heard this week.

527
00:26:21,440 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 2: The bottom line is for our lives, everybody showed up

528
00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,719
Speaker 2: at the margin to buy our full faith in credit.

529
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:30,240
Speaker 3: Rebecca, is that at risk?

530
00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:33,880
Speaker 7: I think longer term, there's a risk that we see

531
00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:37,320
Speaker 7: less demand and not enough demand to meet what will

532
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 7: have to be increasing supply. So I think that the

533
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,760
Speaker 7: bias of risk is toward a repricing, a new range

534
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:45,480
Speaker 7: for the ten year yield, which at the end of

535
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,119
Speaker 7: the day is the cost of capital for all of

536
00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 7: us and everyone listening to this show.

537
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,640
Speaker 2: Final Christian Christina Kappany just really important. Then how does

538
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 2: Investo see full faith and credit repricing.

539
00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:58,360
Speaker 3: Given this turmoil?

540
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:00,760
Speaker 11: Look, I think we've talked about it many times over

541
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 11: the last kind of six months. Is you have to

542
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:05,679
Speaker 11: have term premium in the market, like you still have

543
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 11: a very flat treasury curve, and there needs to be

544
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,959
Speaker 11: a repricing. So we've talked about four twenty five, four

545
00:27:11,000 --> 00:27:14,679
Speaker 11: to seventy five range intents we're sitting at or below.

546
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,359
Speaker 11: Kind of the sentiment has pushed us to those levels.

547
00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 11: We need to reprice the long end higher. And it's

548
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 11: not it's not quite. It's not a list trust moment.

549
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,119
Speaker 11: It's not we need to be at six percent ten years,

550
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,760
Speaker 11: but there we do over time need to price that.

551
00:27:28,320 --> 00:27:30,760
Speaker 3: This has been wonderful? Can we we can do this again?

552
00:27:30,880 --> 00:27:32,360
Speaker 8: I think yeah, all start every.

553
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 2: Job today, get them in here and on a Friday.

554
00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 7: We're enjoying it. We're having fun.

555
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:39,919
Speaker 3: Chrisman, he drove the market.

556
00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:41,840
Speaker 2: Thank you so much, and our thanks as well to

557
00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 2: Ellen Zettner, Claudia's son terrific hour here.

558
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 3: We thank all of you.

559
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 2: Out on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts, and of course,

560
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,240
Speaker 2: on your commute across the nation. Good morning ninety nine

561
00:27:53,320 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 2: one FM, Washington ninety two nine in Boston. Bloomberg Surveillance

562
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:01,040
Speaker 2: our economic indo caters in this job.

563
00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:01,440
Speaker 3: Today.

564
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live

565
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,679
Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on

566
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,399
Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

567
00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

568
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 5: Gina Martin Adams Chaps, market strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence joints

569
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 5: us here Gina just seems like, you know, we've got

570
00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:30,080
Speaker 5: the S and P kind of seven percent ish off

571
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 5: of its recent high. A lot of this uncertainty really

572
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:36,439
Speaker 5: weighing on the market. What kind of conversations are you

573
00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 5: having with clients these days about how to navigate these times?

574
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:45,400
Speaker 10: Yeah, it varies, frankly fallen, a lot of confusion, a

575
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,560
Speaker 10: lot again, on again, off again. Tariffs have been a

576
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 10: big source of discussion for the last month or so.

577
00:28:51,160 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 10: Now we're starting to talk about weakness in the job

578
00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 10: market that is emerging, not only because of layoffs at

579
00:28:56,760 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 10: the federal level with respect to DOJE, but also because

580
00:29:00,400 --> 00:29:02,720
Speaker 10: of public sector layoffs. So this week we had two

581
00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 10: pretty negative employment reports, even though the official payroll report

582
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 10: today was somewhat benign. Earlier this week we got news

583
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 10: from ism manufacturers that their employment prospects are now in contraction.

584
00:29:15,600 --> 00:29:18,600
Speaker 10: Then we got layoffs announced by the Challenger team that

585
00:29:18,680 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 10: are the highest levels we've seen in a single month

586
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,440
Speaker 10: since back in the pandemic.

587
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:24,840
Speaker 9: So very clearly there.

588
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:28,719
Speaker 10: Is some budding weakness in the economy, but it's coming

589
00:29:28,920 --> 00:29:32,480
Speaker 10: in small waves. And not necessarily in all of the

590
00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:35,200
Speaker 10: reports at once, and so investors are trying to weigh

591
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:39,080
Speaker 10: that out. The other thing that's happening is a non

592
00:29:39,120 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 10: economic and discussion, and that is suddenly tech has competition. Right,

593
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 10: So earlier in January we got the news from Deep Seek.

594
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 10: Then this week we got news from Ali Baba that

595
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 10: there are competitors emerging in China in the race for

596
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 10: AI technology implementation, and that is creating waves in the

597
00:29:58,960 --> 00:30:00,080
Speaker 10: market as well.

598
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 3: Given the turmoil in the Oval Office. Gina Martin Adams

599
00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 3: given a tweet on Ukraine, what does a long term

600
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: investor do?

601
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:15,320
Speaker 2: How do you take part in Bloomberg's surveillance but not

602
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:18,479
Speaker 2: let it affect wisdom out three years?

603
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:22,120
Speaker 10: I think that's a very great that's a great point,

604
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 10: and because right now we are caught in a lot

605
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 10: of short termism. But there is one big trend that

606
00:30:28,400 --> 00:30:30,240
Speaker 10: has emerged so far this year that I think will

607
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 10: only be exacerbated by the Trump policies, and that is

608
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 10: performance of non domestic stocks, where we have seen over

609
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 10: the course of the last several years, US stocks outperform

610
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 10: materially in an environment of quote unquote US exceptionalism. US

611
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:50,680
Speaker 10: stocks outperform materially. Tech stocks in particular in the US

612
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:54,080
Speaker 10: really drove that outperformance. But we're starting to see so

613
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 10: far this year a rotation to non domestic equities. Europe

614
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 10: especially is starting to outperform. It's very relative to, very

615
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 10: related to the Ukraine question that you started with. If

616
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 10: Europe does ultimately come together with a cohesive strategy for

617
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,240
Speaker 10: defense spending, with the cohesive economic strategy, with the cohesive

618
00:31:15,920 --> 00:31:19,040
Speaker 10: strategy to try to promote growth and promote Europe as

619
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 10: a European entity, that could be one of the single

620
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 10: most impactful outcomes of policy that we're not talking about

621
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,480
Speaker 10: as much on a day to day as maybe we should.

622
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 10: But it's starting to bubble up into the equity market. Likewise,

623
00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 10: China is becoming an investable market once again. As China

624
00:31:36,920 --> 00:31:40,360
Speaker 10: is coming into the scene for AI competitiveness. We're seeing

625
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,520
Speaker 10: Ali Baba make announcements. Deep Sea made the announcement earlier

626
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 10: this year, so we're starting to see a competitive landscape

627
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 10: shift in tech which is favoring non domestic assets as well.

628
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:53,880
Speaker 10: So probably the biggest question you want to ask yourself

629
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:57,720
Speaker 10: as a global investor is should I be continually so

630
00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:02,040
Speaker 10: overweighted toward the UA, or should I be thinking about

631
00:32:02,040 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 10: this new world order creating new opportunities in non domestic equities.

632
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 10: And our view is that non domestic stocks have been

633
00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 10: the place to be so far in twenty twenty five.

634
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 10: They may continue to be the leaders in the global

635
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,720
Speaker 10: equity markets as we sort of assess the outcomes of

636
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 10: this policy making that's happening from Washington.

637
00:32:21,040 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 5: Wow, that would be a big, big sea change, because

638
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 5: I think as recent as late last year GIN we

639
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 5: were seeing reporting about big flows into US equities by

640
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 5: international investors.

641
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 8: In those days you're suggesting maybe waning.

642
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 10: It appears to be the case, especially because we got

643
00:32:42,160 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 10: to a point where US assets were extremely overvalued relative

644
00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 10: to the rest of the world. If you think back

645
00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 10: to twenty twenty one, when stocks peaked just after the pandemic,

646
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:56,360
Speaker 10: basically every global equity market was overvalued, But when we

647
00:32:56,400 --> 00:32:59,239
Speaker 10: got to twenty twenty four, most global equity markets were

648
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 10: actually extremely discounted by comparison to the US. We had

649
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 10: built up an incredible store of optimism toward the US,

650
00:33:07,880 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 10: specifically through the last several years. That optimism appears to

651
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 10: have peaked with twenty twenty four, and now we're going

652
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 10: through this big adjustment period. As we go through that

653
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 10: adjustment period in the US as well as globally, it's

654
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 10: allowing for opportunities to bubble up in the rest of

655
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 10: the world equity markets. It's allowing for growth to start

656
00:33:26,560 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 10: to recover in those non domestic equity markets, and we're

657
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:33,760
Speaker 10: starting to see capital flow accordingly, not necessarily from the

658
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:37,440
Speaker 10: US investor abroad yet, but the Europeans very clearly are

659
00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 10: investing in Europe. The Asian markets are clearly focused on China.

660
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 10: It's up to the US investor if they're going to

661
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 10: diversify ultimately. But I think we want to question this

662
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 10: idea in an environment in which we are deglobalizing, in

663
00:33:52,720 --> 00:33:55,280
Speaker 10: an environment in which we are not going to continue

664
00:33:55,360 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 10: to lead the global trade order, in the US may

665
00:34:00,680 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 10: no longer be the best place to access global growth,

666
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:07,440
Speaker 10: and we have to think about diversifying our portfolios.

667
00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:08,640
Speaker 1: According to I got.

668
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,640
Speaker 2: Thirty seconds, what are you going to think about this weekend?

669
00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:17,640
Speaker 2: I mean, what's what within the massive Bloomberg intelligence combine? Yeah,

670
00:34:17,680 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 2: what's your curiosity this weekend?

671
00:34:21,040 --> 00:34:24,280
Speaker 10: That's a great question. Hopefully not as much on tariffs,

672
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:26,680
Speaker 10: but I'll still be thinking about tariffs. I think we

673
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,239
Speaker 10: have to think about where these reciprocal tariffs are going

674
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 10: to go interesting and ultimately what that will mean for

675
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,479
Speaker 10: global trade. I do think we have to really spend

676
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 10: a lot of time on Europe as well. You know,

677
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,440
Speaker 10: the news out of Germany this week was potentially game changing.

678
00:34:43,440 --> 00:34:46,719
Speaker 10: Where is Europe going to head with respect to defending

679
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 10: the continent against what's happening with Russia and Ukraine. I

680
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 10: think that Europe is going to be a big part

681
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:54,839
Speaker 10: of the conversation over the course of the year.

682
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 2: This has been wonderful Gina, Martin Adams, and thank you

683
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:58,120
Speaker 2: so much for this.

684
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: Is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting

685
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android Auto

686
00:35:05,280 --> 00:35:08,239
Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

687
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,880
Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

688
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:14,480
Speaker 1: say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

689
00:35:14,800 --> 00:35:17,880
Speaker 2: Anna Wong joins us right now from the University of Chicago.

690
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,279
Speaker 2: It has been so profound this year that you have

691
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 2: the gentleman from Penn Kevin has said, quoting her, let

692
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: me read you the first sentence of the pr from

693
00:35:26,680 --> 00:35:30,240
Speaker 2: Caroline levi Att the White House moments ago. In one month,

694
00:35:30,280 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: in the President Trump, the American economy is soaring back

695
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:37,399
Speaker 2: to greatness after the economic calamity.

696
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 3: Left by Joe Biden.

697
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:44,040
Speaker 2: What is the mathematics on a labor basis when an

698
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:47,640
Speaker 2: administration begins, it's not when they put the hand on

699
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:48,240
Speaker 2: the Bible.

700
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,839
Speaker 3: How many months later is it for you?

701
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:53,920
Speaker 13: Well, according to the administration, it'll be six to twelve

702
00:35:53,920 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 13: month when it becomes Trump economy. But in today's Johns

703
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 13: you for me. I thought that the surprising element in

704
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 13: the jobs report was that the shrinkage of the federal

705
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:09,480
Speaker 13: government is apparently already showing evidence in this report. So

706
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,120
Speaker 13: one of the reason why we were expecting a much

707
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:17,640
Speaker 13: lower print than today was we expect a trinkage in

708
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,720
Speaker 13: the government hiring. Apparently it's even worse than what we thought.

709
00:36:21,000 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 13: We had expected a slow down of twenty eight thousand

710
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 13: in the government sector. It was actually a slow down

711
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 13: of thirty three thousand.

712
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:29,480
Speaker 2: Okay, I want to cut to the chase here. This

713
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:32,680
Speaker 2: run rate of non firm payrolls, which is like the

714
00:36:32,719 --> 00:36:36,960
Speaker 2: speed of the economy. You are acquaimed for gaining that.

715
00:36:37,560 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 2: Where is the run rate now? And with policy like those,

716
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 2: where are we going.

717
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 13: To be right? So the runway right based on six

718
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,320
Speaker 13: month moving average is about one hundred and ninety thousand,

719
00:36:50,880 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 13: and a factor in the overstatement in the birth and

720
00:36:53,800 --> 00:36:58,800
Speaker 13: death model, it's about ninety thousand. However, the employment break

721
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 13: even to stayalize the unemployment rate has also fallen, so Bostic,

722
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 13: the Atlanta Fed President, estimates seventy five to one thousand.

723
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 13: One hundred thousand per month is about break even. We

724
00:37:11,239 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 13: estimate one hundred and five thousand, So you know, at

725
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:19,239
Speaker 13: a pace of ninety thousand is just slightly below the

726
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,920
Speaker 13: break even and so Empowell's worth that means the unemployment

727
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 13: rate should be inching up about by point one percentage

728
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 13: point every other month. This is why we expect the

729
00:37:29,480 --> 00:37:31,800
Speaker 13: unemployment rate to hit four point five percent at the

730
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 13: end of the year. And you calculate this math of

731
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:37,319
Speaker 13: point one percentage point every other month in terms of

732
00:37:37,360 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 13: the dose we're expecting the federal government shrinkage will lead

733
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 13: to about half a million federal workers going into the

734
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 13: job market this year. So the question is how can

735
00:37:49,640 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 13: the privacy, whether the private sector can quickly absorb this,

736
00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:56,400
Speaker 13: and in today's prime what we saw the strength, which

737
00:37:56,440 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 13: surprised me was in the goods producing sector, particularly manufacturing,

738
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 13: which is not a consoling sign because I think what

739
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 13: we're seeing is that with the front running of these

740
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 13: goods ahead of the tariffs, it's ramping up manufacturing activity.

741
00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 13: You see that China's exports soaring, but that's not a

742
00:38:16,520 --> 00:38:20,000
Speaker 13: permanent thing. It's definitely a temporary thing. And as all

743
00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 13: these tariffs come into effect in April second, I think

744
00:38:23,520 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 13: what you're going to see is this steep patch up

745
00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 13: and drop off from.

746
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:28,120
Speaker 3: Moll months ago.

747
00:38:28,280 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 2: The Laureate Krugman, agreeing with Anna Lawn that with the

748
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 2: mid month math here and haul, we're still within a

749
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:41,080
Speaker 2: Biden economy with today's it's today's statistics. That from Paul

750
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: Krugman out on a substet.

751
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:47,440
Speaker 5: So we've had a commentary from the administration from National

752
00:38:47,440 --> 00:38:50,600
Speaker 5: Economic Council, has it on Bloomberg Television from the spokesperson.

753
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 8: We have just heard White House spokesperson.

754
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:56,440
Speaker 5: Saying this economy's greatest economy is coming back. The President's

755
00:38:56,440 --> 00:38:57,880
Speaker 5: policies are working very well.

756
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:58,239
Speaker 8: YEP.

757
00:38:58,520 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 5: Financial markets are not necess necessarily reflecting that the stock

758
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,720
Speaker 5: market's off seven percent from its high just just recently.

759
00:39:05,680 --> 00:39:07,160
Speaker 5: How do you think this is all going to play out?

760
00:39:07,360 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 5: Should we be concerned about tariffs, should we be concerned

761
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 5: about changes in immigration?

762
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 8: How do you think about that?

763
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:16,399
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think I think the on the tearff front,

764
00:39:16,400 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 13: I think the financial market is calling the bluff on

765
00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:22,439
Speaker 13: President Trump because they I don't think that a lot

766
00:39:22,480 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 13: of the tariffs are priced in the inflation compensations or

767
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:32,520
Speaker 13: financial markets yet. And uh and I think rightly so

768
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,759
Speaker 13: for them to be doubtful because in the past month

769
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 13: and a half it seems that President Trump has been

770
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:43,480
Speaker 13: delaying these waves of tariff and also I think it

771
00:39:43,800 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 13: part of it also has to do with this expectation

772
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,560
Speaker 13: of a Trump put on the stock market. And if

773
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,719
Speaker 13: economic activity in the labor market, is the tear going

774
00:39:53,760 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 13: to be deteriorating faster because of Doge layoff, it's going

775
00:39:57,480 --> 00:39:59,399
Speaker 13: to call the bluff on President I.

776
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:02,399
Speaker 2: Just looked away from the screen, Paul, to see if

777
00:40:02,440 --> 00:40:06,239
Speaker 2: my blue school panel invite was in my inis, and

778
00:40:06,280 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 2: I look at the lift of the market.

779
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 8: Op here anaalong Citty in the big chairs. That's what happens.

780
00:40:12,680 --> 00:40:15,839
Speaker 5: So Anna, what are you looking at over the next

781
00:40:15,880 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 5: coming weeks, maybe months, to get a sense of where

782
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 5: this economy is going.

783
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:25,040
Speaker 13: I think the fastest indicator you can look at that

784
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:29,280
Speaker 13: reflect the changing, rapidly changing temperature of the labor market

785
00:40:29,760 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 13: is the jobless claims that with the federal government jobless claims,

786
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 13: and in fact it is one of the Bloomberg reporters

787
00:40:37,239 --> 00:40:42,279
Speaker 13: here Mark Nikutt to discover that the Labor Department of

788
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:46,360
Speaker 13: Labor already published the jobless claims for federal workers yesterday

789
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 13: for next week, which everybody thought is only going to

790
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 13: be out next week, and we're seeing a sustained increase

791
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 13: in jobless claims from federal workers.

792
00:40:55,719 --> 00:40:58,720
Speaker 2: I mean, this is a brutal question, a really rude question.

793
00:40:59,360 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 2: Your ex on this and you a lot of us talk,

794
00:41:03,120 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 2: you've lived it. Where are those people going to get jobs?

795
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: All those doze exiting people.

796
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,400
Speaker 3: You could have been one of those people. Where are

797
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:13,560
Speaker 3: they going to get jobs?

798
00:41:13,800 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 13: And Tom, that is an excellent question, right. So, for example,

799
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 13: in today's jobs report, one of the plays which surprised me,

800
00:41:21,480 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 13: where I had forecast that lower jock growth is professional

801
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,279
Speaker 13: and businesses, and I now saw that much of the

802
00:41:27,320 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 13: pop is in waste management.

803
00:41:30,000 --> 00:41:33,840
Speaker 8: Waste yes, always a growth business.

804
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 2: So like when Stevie Nicks with Fleetwood Mac. When Stevie

805
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 2: Nicks was starving, she was in waste management, cleaning houses

806
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,400
Speaker 2: and cleaning the bathrooms. Seriously, where are the people of Bethesda,

807
00:41:45,480 --> 00:41:48,560
Speaker 2: Maryland going to get jobs?

808
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 13: Exactly? Seriously, Tom, That's exactly the point that the match

809
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:55,879
Speaker 13: skill mismatch of these government workers who are actually very

810
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,080
Speaker 13: highly skilled and highly specialized.

811
00:41:58,440 --> 00:41:59,880
Speaker 3: You know what, are you a Biden supporter?

812
00:42:00,160 --> 00:42:03,320
Speaker 13: Continue, They're not gonna they want to find jobs and

813
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:07,799
Speaker 13: administrative for all informational sectors, you know, these these financial

814
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:12,320
Speaker 13: sector but those sectors hiring a pace is not keeping

815
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:16,600
Speaker 13: up with the inflows into the unemployment of in those sectors,

816
00:42:16,640 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 13: whereas the places where we need more workers are like

817
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 13: waste management and professional businesses. So there's a skill mismatch.

818
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 2: Annamon the Bloomberg Economics. She's been on fire over the

819
00:42:28,160 --> 00:42:37,279
Speaker 2: last eighteen months with her analysis of our labor economy.

820
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

821
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:44,240
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

822
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:47,320
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

823
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:50,319
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

824
00:42:50,320 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

825
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,960
Speaker 2: We got to do the papers, and that means, Lisa Monteore,

826
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:56,600
Speaker 2: have you recovered from costco?

827
00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,759
Speaker 9: I did, I did. I'm good now. It was very sad,

828
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:05,239
Speaker 9: but shares are still lower this morning. You guys are

829
00:43:05,239 --> 00:43:08,200
Speaker 9: always talking college basketball, right, so I wanted to kind

830
00:43:08,200 --> 00:43:10,799
Speaker 9: of bring it in here, get myself involved in the action.

831
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:12,879
Speaker 9: This is from the post. Okay, So they're saying that

832
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 9: March Madness is just that it's it's March. They're saying

833
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 9: that that that's failed to kind of bring this buzz

834
00:43:18,440 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 9: to the regular season. They list a couple of reasons why.

835
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:24,720
Speaker 9: They talk about, you know, they're competing with football, women's

836
00:43:24,760 --> 00:43:27,759
Speaker 9: college hoops getting more popular because the women actually stay

837
00:43:27,760 --> 00:43:30,359
Speaker 9: in the sport longer, so people get more familiar with them. Well,

838
00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:31,840
Speaker 9: does the guys they you know, move on to the

839
00:43:31,960 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 9: NBA coaches coming going the transfer portal NL They say that,

840
00:43:36,960 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 9: you know, they've tried to expand the March Madness Tournament

841
00:43:39,920 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 9: to sparks. It Did that do it for you? Expanding

842
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 9: the tournament? Did that spark excitement?

843
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:43,879
Speaker 10: Yeah?

844
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:45,200
Speaker 5: I mean it's it's a little bit better, just get

845
00:43:45,200 --> 00:43:47,439
Speaker 5: some more teams in there. But you're right, there's there's

846
00:43:47,480 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 5: just there's more and more. I again, I think, just

847
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,279
Speaker 5: speaking from the perspective of Duke, all my guys are

848
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:55,480
Speaker 5: one and done, and so the our connection with our team,

849
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:57,879
Speaker 5: and I speak from a lot of alumni, is much

850
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:00,160
Speaker 5: much less. Now can you extrapolate that out there the

851
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 5: entire college game?

852
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,680
Speaker 8: I don't know, but so so this weekend it's a

853
00:44:04,760 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 8: huge game.

854
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:09,359
Speaker 3: Let's say there's twenty five gifted players playing. Are there

855
00:44:09,360 --> 00:44:11,279
Speaker 3: any seniors on.

856
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:15,560
Speaker 8: The Duke team? None to speak of? With just what

857
00:44:15,600 --> 00:44:18,640
Speaker 8: will have say and stay and then again in the.

858
00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,960
Speaker 5: Transfer portal, for better or worse, it gives the kids

859
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:23,800
Speaker 5: freedom to go where they think they can have the

860
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,440
Speaker 5: most success. That's great for them and they deserve that. Now,

861
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 5: the downside is, you know, there's no stability within teams

862
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,280
Speaker 5: and programs, and therefore you know loyalty.

863
00:44:32,400 --> 00:44:34,800
Speaker 2: David from Washington emails in and says, how much do

864
00:44:34,880 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 2: you think who's the guy for Duke?

865
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:39,879
Speaker 3: The young freshman Connor oh Cooper, flat Cooper? How much

866
00:44:39,960 --> 00:44:43,200
Speaker 3: is Cooper piling in name, image, and likeness.

867
00:44:42,840 --> 00:44:45,440
Speaker 8: Of six seven eight million dollars this year? Probably is

868
00:44:45,440 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 8: a freshman?

869
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,600
Speaker 3: Yes, God, let's Lisa ma tail Bunny.

870
00:44:48,640 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 9: So next, my God, Okay, so the egg shortage drama continuing,

871
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:56,359
Speaker 9: price is higher, stores limiting purchases. So now the US

872
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 9: is on this like global egg hunt. So they have

873
00:44:58,719 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 9: a goal here it is they you need up to

874
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,319
Speaker 9: one hundred million eggs within the next month or two.

875
00:45:03,480 --> 00:45:06,840
Speaker 9: So they're going out. They're countries like Poland, France, Indonesia

876
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,160
Speaker 9: to ask about eggs. The problem, like we've talked about,

877
00:45:09,200 --> 00:45:11,920
Speaker 9: you know, the shelf life isn't that great. Eggs still,

878
00:45:12,000 --> 00:45:14,440
Speaker 9: you know they break in transit and there's flu outbreaks

879
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 9: in other countries too.

880
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 5: But I sent Lisa, I sent Alex, I sent Carol Master.

881
00:45:19,280 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 5: I was in the shop right yesterday in Jersey. Plenty

882
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 5: of eggs, but they're a little pricey, probably little prize.

883
00:45:24,120 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 5: I didn't check the prices, you were right, but they

884
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 5: were there.

885
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:28,720
Speaker 9: They're there, so there were signs like limiting.

886
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:31,200
Speaker 3: Now I opened the old ge.

887
00:45:31,400 --> 00:45:33,720
Speaker 2: We got the little old g E made in nineteen fifty.

888
00:45:33,719 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 2: The engine makes loonas And there's my twelve ninety nine

889
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:38,240
Speaker 2: eggs scaring me in the face.

890
00:45:39,120 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 9: You only got five weeks. I got to eat those, okay?

891
00:45:41,680 --> 00:45:45,080
Speaker 9: That the last one. People are as a kid say,

892
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:48,640
Speaker 9: throwing shade at Meghan Markele, Meghan Sussex. Okay, there you

893
00:45:48,640 --> 00:45:51,240
Speaker 9: want to put it. Her new Netflix show With Love Meghan.

894
00:45:51,600 --> 00:45:54,160
Speaker 9: She cooked right, she tends to be high. She picks berries.

895
00:45:54,360 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 9: But it was this pasta dish that she called single

896
00:45:57,840 --> 00:46:01,040
Speaker 9: skillet spaghetti that threw people all over the edge. Okay,

897
00:46:01,080 --> 00:46:04,080
Speaker 9: so what she does is that it's an almond dish.

898
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:06,399
Speaker 9: She lays the pasta out like raw in the pot,

899
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 9: and then she throws the tomatoes, the garlic, and the

900
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:10,920
Speaker 9: olive oil, and then she pours the boiling water on

901
00:46:10,960 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 9: top of it. Really, so she lets everything kind of

902
00:46:13,160 --> 00:46:16,280
Speaker 9: cook at once instead of boiling. Separate word. So everyone's

903
00:46:16,360 --> 00:46:17,000
Speaker 9: up in an operar.

904
00:46:17,560 --> 00:46:18,680
Speaker 4: I don't. They don't like it.

905
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,640
Speaker 8: They say, you can't do that, arth to do that?

906
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 3: About nineteen eighty three.

907
00:46:22,280 --> 00:46:24,320
Speaker 5: Well, I didn't get past the second line, which says

908
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:25,840
Speaker 5: Megan Sussex.

909
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 8: Yes, that's her British oil name she goes by. I

910
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:29,279
Speaker 8: didn't know that was the thing.

911
00:46:29,400 --> 00:46:32,720
Speaker 9: I can see that is her thing now the paper.

912
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 2: Oh, I could say, there's so many things I could

913
00:46:35,600 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 2: say where mister Bloomberg would call me up put the

914
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 2: surveillance cork.

915
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:42,880
Speaker 9: But the reason she says it gives it a creamy

916
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,520
Speaker 9: sure because it keeps starching it. So that's why she

917
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:47,560
Speaker 9: does it that way, and it's a less pot less

918
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:48,279
Speaker 9: pots to wash.

919
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 2: Lisato, thank you so much, greatly appreciated the newspapers with

920
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:53,440
Speaker 2: Lisa Matteo.

921
00:46:53,840 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

922
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,

923
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 1: seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the

924
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:10,759
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You

925
00:47:10,800 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and

926
00:47:14,360 --> 00:47:16,120
Speaker 1: always on the Bloomberg terminal