1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:05,440 Speaker 1: live weekdays at. 3 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 2: One Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and 4 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app. 5 00:00:10,240 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: Or listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 6 00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 3: The speaker McCarthy managed to land the plane. Yeah, he's 7 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:18,919 Speaker 3: at two seventeen and they's are two fifteen. The bill 8 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:25,080 Speaker 3: has passed with that objection of mostly freaconfiers laid on 9 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:28,520 Speaker 3: the table down from the House floor late yesterday or 10 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 3: did he catch the car. Speaker McCarthy held a news 11 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,160 Speaker 3: briefing with reporters immediately after the vote. You can probably 12 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:36,919 Speaker 3: guess what he said. Now, he should sit down and negotiate. 13 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 4: We passed this early. 14 00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,720 Speaker 5: We are in April, way ahead of the debt. 15 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,599 Speaker 3: Limit, once again urging the president to sit down and negotiate. 16 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,120 Speaker 3: As you heard, knowing President Biden says he will not 17 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,919 Speaker 3: negotiate over the debt ceiling, and he's been awfully consistent 18 00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 3: on that. Here's how I put it yesterday. 19 00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:54,360 Speaker 5: Happy to maybe McCard, but not on whether or not 20 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 5: the debt limit gets extended. Run that's not negotiable. I 21 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,280 Speaker 5: noticed they quote Reagan and they quote Reagan all the time, 22 00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 5: and they quote Trump, both of which said it says, 23 00:01:06,200 --> 00:01:09,840 Speaker 5: I'm paraphrasing, it would be an absolute crime to not 24 00:01:09,959 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 5: extend the DEBTM. 25 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: And so we go to the source on what happens next, 26 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,120 Speaker 3: glad to say, we're joined by Gene Sperling, senior advisor 27 00:01:16,160 --> 00:01:19,640 Speaker 3: to the President, former director the National Economic Council. Gene, 28 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 3: welcome back. It's always our pleasure. Press Secretary Karine Jean 29 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,399 Speaker 3: Pierre issued a statement following the vote saying it has 30 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 3: no chance of becoming law, which we understand, but also 31 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 3: the congressional Republicans must raise the debt ceiling to avoid 32 00:01:31,240 --> 00:01:34,120 Speaker 3: a default. Does that mean the President will not meet 33 00:01:34,120 --> 00:01:35,360 Speaker 3: with the Speaker anytime soon? 34 00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:39,640 Speaker 6: Well, what the President has said is that he is 35 00:01:40,280 --> 00:01:43,960 Speaker 6: very willing to meet with the Speaker to have a 36 00:01:44,040 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 6: debate and over and discussion about what we should do 37 00:01:48,920 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 6: on our budget. They have put forward a very braconian budget. 38 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,520 Speaker 6: I think one that many of the moderate Republicans will 39 00:01:59,520 --> 00:02:02,600 Speaker 6: regret voting for. I don't know how they vote for 40 00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:03,920 Speaker 6: something that would cut. 41 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 7: Aid to. 42 00:02:05,720 --> 00:02:09,880 Speaker 6: Children with disabilities by half over the life of the plan, 43 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:14,799 Speaker 6: or cancer research by half, our border security or preschool 44 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:19,520 Speaker 6: I mean, these are very draconian plans that would not 45 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:22,040 Speaker 6: be acceptable to the public. But we believe we should 46 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 6: sit down and talk about those separate from the debt limit. 47 00:02:26,040 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 6: When they say negotiape on the debt limit, that is 48 00:02:29,080 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 6: a sanitized way of saying we want to tell the 49 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,680 Speaker 6: American people and the President that if they do not 50 00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:40,000 Speaker 6: do our extreme budget cuts, we will put the United 51 00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 6: States into default for the first time in our history. 52 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:47,840 Speaker 6: And we learned in twenty eleven that even playing the 53 00:02:47,960 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 6: fault sprinksmanship, even going to the world and saying, hey, 54 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 6: we're going to have a negotiation where if we don't 55 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 6: get our way, the United States will go into fault, 56 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:01,000 Speaker 6: can have terrible effects. It costs US one million jobs 57 00:03:01,360 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 6: in twenty eight due to what happened in twenty eleven. 58 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 6: It drove consumer confidence down twenty two percent. 59 00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 7: So when the President is. 60 00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,920 Speaker 6: Saying, Democrat or Republican, whoever you are, you should be 61 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 6: willing to pay your past bill and protect America's full 62 00:03:18,400 --> 00:03:20,399 Speaker 6: faith and credit, and then if you want to sit 63 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,240 Speaker 6: down and have a good old fashioned budget negotiation, we 64 00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:26,400 Speaker 6: should do that. And the last point I'll make is 65 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 6: just that you know this is not something where Democrats 66 00:03:29,200 --> 00:03:33,880 Speaker 6: are being hypocritical. When Democrats when President Trump sought to 67 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 6: raise the debt limit three different times, never did you 68 00:03:37,480 --> 00:03:40,480 Speaker 6: hear Nancy Pelosi say, well, if you don't do childcare, 69 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,480 Speaker 6: we're going to put the country into default. Never did 70 00:03:43,480 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 6: we play default Brinksman show. 71 00:03:45,560 --> 00:03:47,040 Speaker 3: No, I got a gene. And we've talked this up 72 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:49,760 Speaker 3: and down here on Bloomberg because you know, that's what 73 00:03:49,800 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 3: we do. And I've seen the White House quoting Donald 74 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:56,280 Speaker 3: Trump and Ronald Reagan, as Karine John Pierre did yesterday 75 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:59,200 Speaker 3: in your communications. I also know that both sides have 76 00:03:59,480 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 3: both sides have pledged to not let the country default. 77 00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:04,400 Speaker 3: It seems like people's hearts are in the right place. 78 00:04:04,440 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 3: But I'm just trying to figure out what the next 79 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 3: step is here, what breaks the stair down? 80 00:04:10,720 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 6: Well, you know again, I think that what they've said 81 00:04:16,120 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 6: is they want to you know, they said two things. 82 00:04:19,279 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 6: One's an acceptable ask. One is not. It's acceptable to say, 83 00:04:23,720 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 6: we have a budget plan. Let's go compare the presidents, 84 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:30,080 Speaker 6: which does raise taxes on the most well off and 85 00:04:30,400 --> 00:04:33,880 Speaker 6: the largest corporations who evade taxes, and it does use 86 00:04:33,920 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 6: some of those funds for things like childcare and education, 87 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:41,839 Speaker 6: community college, and then the Republican plan, which is we 88 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:47,279 Speaker 6: said would cut vital education and health and security measures 89 00:04:47,320 --> 00:04:50,160 Speaker 6: by over half over ten years. You have that type 90 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 6: of debate, and that's acceptable, but we all have to 91 00:04:54,480 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 6: learnt you cannot hold the credit of the United States hostage. 92 00:05:01,400 --> 00:05:05,279 Speaker 6: You cannot essentially say my way or I will put 93 00:05:05,640 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 6: the economy into a recession, put our country in default. 94 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:12,040 Speaker 6: That is not a negotiation anyone should do. No one's 95 00:05:12,080 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 6: been that since twenty eleven. And the fact that Democrats 96 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:19,440 Speaker 6: never tried to hold our full faith and credit hostage 97 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:23,119 Speaker 6: three times shows that this is a principal position which 98 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:26,000 Speaker 6: Speaker McCarthy should go along with, and then we can 99 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 6: have the negotiation that he's asking for. 100 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 3: So the White House position is come up with a 101 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:35,039 Speaker 3: clean debt limit bill and we'll talk after that. Do 102 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:38,159 Speaker 3: you think, actually, like in your darkest hour, Gene, and 103 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,320 Speaker 3: I know you've seen this movie before. We've been through 104 00:05:40,320 --> 00:05:44,359 Speaker 3: this a bunch of times, and we've somehow always avoided default. 105 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,760 Speaker 3: Do you think in your darkest hour when you consider 106 00:05:46,839 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 3: the makeup of this House Republican majority and the so 107 00:05:51,040 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 3: called five families, that there are members of the rank 108 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 3: and file maybe even the leadership who are actually okay 109 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 3: with a default to make up at. 110 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 6: I sure, hope not. I mean, I know we are polarized, 111 00:06:06,200 --> 00:06:09,039 Speaker 6: but the idea that somebody would want to put the 112 00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,680 Speaker 6: United States into a deep recession for a political strategy, 113 00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,240 Speaker 6: knowing the heartbreak, the lost jobs, the lost houses, the 114 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:22,880 Speaker 6: loss retirement savings. No, I'm going to be idealistic enough 115 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:24,840 Speaker 6: to say in the end, I hope that is not. 116 00:06:25,160 --> 00:06:27,599 Speaker 3: So that's a good thing. Right then, if everyone's heart's 117 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:30,640 Speaker 3: in the right place, you see some solution here on 118 00:06:30,680 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 3: the horizon, because at some point the market's going to 119 00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 3: start freaking out. 120 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 6: I mean, I think the thing to worry about is 121 00:06:37,120 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 6: that there is is whether the speaker. You know, we've 122 00:06:40,800 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 6: seen how beholden he can be to the most extreme 123 00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,479 Speaker 6: maga wing, and I can't speak for them. I can't 124 00:06:46,480 --> 00:06:50,000 Speaker 6: speak for whether they have that degree of responsibility. So 125 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 6: the issue is, is the most extreme magawing who supports 126 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 6: this kind of draconian budget and is willing to talk 127 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,279 Speaker 6: about default. Are they actually going to call the shots 128 00:07:01,880 --> 00:07:04,520 Speaker 6: or are we going to do like we have since 129 00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 6: twenty eleven, you know, raise the debt limit and then 130 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:12,200 Speaker 6: have a good old fashioned national debate over whose budget 131 00:07:12,240 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 6: strategy is right. You know, I can't guarantee an outcome, 132 00:07:16,960 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 6: but we're going to push very hard for exactly what 133 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 6: the President is saying, which is all side to degree. 134 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 6: You pay your past debts, you don't risk the full 135 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 6: skeeping credit that Alexander Hamilton understood at our founding was 136 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 6: so important for generations and generations of America. That's not 137 00:07:35,000 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 6: a game you play. You don't hold that hostage. 138 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:38,040 Speaker 3: Understood. 139 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:39,840 Speaker 6: I'll tell you I've been part of a lot of 140 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:44,560 Speaker 6: good budget negotiations, ninety three, ninety seven bipartisan budget negotiations, 141 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:47,000 Speaker 6: none of those with somebody saying, if I don't get 142 00:07:47,000 --> 00:07:49,960 Speaker 6: my way, bring the default the United States of America. 143 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:51,960 Speaker 3: Well, let's hope that remains the case. Here. I want 144 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 3: to ask you about the GDP data that was out 145 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,960 Speaker 3: this morning as we spend time with Jeans Spurling, Senior 146 00:07:56,960 --> 00:08:02,440 Speaker 3: advisor to the President here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm not 147 00:08:02,480 --> 00:08:05,640 Speaker 3: sure how this whole part, this whole portion of the 148 00:08:05,680 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 3: debate is going to end, but there are concerns about 149 00:08:07,840 --> 00:08:10,120 Speaker 3: the economy as we go into the second half of 150 00:08:10,160 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 3: this year. Gene. There's a lot of talk about a 151 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 3: potential recession. I know that the White House thinks that 152 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,560 Speaker 3: there's a path to a soft landing with that GDP 153 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 3: data unless some kind of concern. This morning, Chris Zaccarelli, 154 00:08:22,560 --> 00:08:26,040 Speaker 3: the chief investment officer at independent advisor Alliance on the 155 00:08:26,120 --> 00:08:28,920 Speaker 3: Terminal today says the data was the worst of both worlds, 156 00:08:28,920 --> 00:08:30,880 Speaker 3: growth down, inflation up. Is he right? 157 00:08:33,280 --> 00:08:35,959 Speaker 6: I know I would not say that that is right, 158 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 6: and that certainly hasn't been what the reaction from market 159 00:08:39,320 --> 00:08:42,160 Speaker 6: forces have been. I think when you look deeper, you 160 00:08:42,200 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 6: saw that what's called you know, final demand or more 161 00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:51,400 Speaker 6: sometimes people call private GDP actually showed a pretty solid 162 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 6: forward momentum. I think that you know, you saw things 163 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:01,360 Speaker 6: with burning down inventory worries that we'll have to look 164 00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 6: over the next few months to interpret you know what 165 00:09:05,559 --> 00:09:09,400 Speaker 6: that is pointing to. Uh, But yeah, there is, as 166 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 6: we've always said, there would be uh some you know, stableization, 167 00:09:14,040 --> 00:09:16,640 Speaker 6: you know, some cooling to what we hope will be 168 00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 6: stable growth, more stable growth, stable job growth with prices 169 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 6: coming down. And you know we'll get blips this month 170 00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 6: or that month. But but right now, I did not, 171 00:09:30,240 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 6: I did not see things that would put off alarm 172 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:35,600 Speaker 6: bells in this in this GDP report. 173 00:09:35,640 --> 00:09:37,880 Speaker 3: And the soft landing is still in the cards. Knowing 174 00:09:37,880 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 3: that the Fed has yet to lick this inflation. 175 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 6: Problem, well, you know, inflation has come down significantly, it 176 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:49,920 Speaker 6: has further to go. We surely understand, you know, people 177 00:09:49,920 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 6: going through the grocery lines are still not satisfied. And 178 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 6: we understand that telling people that the United States, uh, 179 00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:58,760 Speaker 6: you know, is in the middle of the pack, that 180 00:09:58,800 --> 00:10:02,400 Speaker 6: our inflation is you know, just you know, not one 181 00:10:02,440 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 6: of the highest in the global community. It's still you know, 182 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 6: that doesn't provide a lot of comfort for again, people 183 00:10:09,080 --> 00:10:11,880 Speaker 6: going through the grocery line. But we still have seen 184 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 6: downward momentum in a positive way. And yes, you know 185 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 6: we we we aren't the Federal Reserve. We let them 186 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,400 Speaker 6: do their job. But we believe that that transition to 187 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:29,800 Speaker 6: more stable economic growth that is still working for working 188 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,400 Speaker 6: families is one that is what we are still aspiring to. 189 00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 3: You're always generous with your time, Gene before you go. 190 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:38,400 Speaker 3: Just lastly, on the debt ceiling matter, would the White 191 00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 3: House be open to suspending the debt ceiling a short 192 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:44,560 Speaker 3: term solution, maybe by a couple of months, to sort 193 00:10:44,600 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 3: of soothe the nerves and buy some time to figure 194 00:10:48,200 --> 00:10:50,240 Speaker 3: out the way forward or is that not on the table. 195 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:54,280 Speaker 6: Well, you know, if you've been in three White houses 196 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,800 Speaker 6: like I have, one of the lessons you learned early 197 00:10:57,320 --> 00:11:01,280 Speaker 6: is you just cannot play hypothetical games. And I'm not 198 00:11:01,360 --> 00:11:05,440 Speaker 6: going to entertain. I just also don't believe. I really 199 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:09,320 Speaker 6: don't believe that there should be a problem doing this. 200 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 6: You know. The speaker likes to use the example and says, well, 201 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 6: if your kid's over spending, you sit down and talk 202 00:11:15,080 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 6: with them. Well, you know what you don't do. You 203 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 6: don't say to your child, hey, maybe we should default 204 00:11:19,720 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 6: on our credit card, or you pay the credit card bill, 205 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 6: and then you talk about what the plan would be 206 00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:30,200 Speaker 6: going forward. And you know there's a constant, you know, 207 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,920 Speaker 6: the Article one the Constitution gives Congress the ability the 208 00:11:33,960 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 6: spending power. When you when you've made those decisions, when 209 00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:40,559 Speaker 6: you've already voted, when it's past two houses and been 210 00:11:40,600 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 6: signed by the president, it is unthinkable to entertain default. 211 00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,080 Speaker 6: You know, really, I just can't say enough. You know, 212 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 6: look at our founding, Look at what it meant when 213 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:55,800 Speaker 6: Alexander Hamilton had the foresight to say, let's pay all 214 00:11:55,840 --> 00:11:58,720 Speaker 6: our debts, even though we were victorious in the Revolutionary War, 215 00:11:59,080 --> 00:12:03,560 Speaker 6: because the fit of an absolutely immaculate credit rating, an 216 00:12:03,679 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 6: absolutely immaculate full faith in credit the United States would 217 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:10,280 Speaker 6: mean that we would have lower costs, more ability to 218 00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:14,320 Speaker 6: be financed during emergencies. That has benefited every single generation. 219 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:18,360 Speaker 6: It's just it's terrible to think that anybody would put 220 00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 6: that legacy from our founders at risk just to you know, 221 00:12:23,559 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 6: as a threat on any budget call. And that's true, 222 00:12:27,160 --> 00:12:29,839 Speaker 6: and I would say that about any Democrat or Republicans. 223 00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:32,960 Speaker 3: Sure, and we hope that both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue 224 00:12:33,200 --> 00:12:37,400 Speaker 3: are legitimate and authentic when they say they will not default. 225 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:40,240 Speaker 3: Geene Spurling, thanks so much for the time. But did 226 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:42,240 Speaker 3: you wake up with American Pie plane in your head 227 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:42,720 Speaker 3: this morning? 228 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 6: You know that was the second time they've been to 229 00:12:47,440 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 6: a White House event where somebody who is not a 230 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 6: singer takes the mic and actually performs way above expectation. 231 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 6: So yes, the leader of South Korea both had a 232 00:12:59,000 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 6: nice voice, and I think I think he only got 233 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:05,079 Speaker 6: maybe one word wrong on one of the more complicated 234 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:08,280 Speaker 6: verses of American Pie. So I'll have to give him 235 00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:09,839 Speaker 6: a high grade for that big time. 236 00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 3: Who was the other one, Barack Obama or was it 237 00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 3: was it a visiting head of state? 238 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 6: It was at the repub It was at the governor's 239 00:13:17,400 --> 00:13:22,600 Speaker 6: ball was a Republican governor from Utah Cox who wanted 240 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 6: to sing a Brad Paisley song who is the entertainer 241 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 6: to his wife, and took the mic. And he had 242 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,520 Speaker 6: quite a nice voice too, So I don't think I 243 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:35,959 Speaker 6: should take the mic soon after after the amateur, high 244 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:40,440 Speaker 6: level amateur performances we've seen by the governor of Utah 245 00:13:40,480 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 6: and the leader. 246 00:13:41,400 --> 00:13:44,000 Speaker 3: Of southmb YEA Spencer Cox bringing the house down. But 247 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,080 Speaker 3: you always have an avenue here if you ever want 248 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,520 Speaker 3: to give it a test drive. Gene, this is this 249 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:50,400 Speaker 3: is where we're going to do it. You're always kind 250 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,440 Speaker 3: with your time, and I appreciate your insights. Thank you 251 00:13:52,480 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 3: for the impassioned argument for not defaulting on our nation's 252 00:13:56,880 --> 00:13:59,959 Speaker 3: dead Jeans spiling his White House, American Rescue Planning Court 253 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 3: nator and importantly senior advisor to the President. Okay, this 254 00:14:03,080 --> 00:14:06,880 Speaker 3: is the man who's actually talking to Joe Biden when 255 00:14:06,920 --> 00:14:09,720 Speaker 3: they figure out next steps here, when they plan strategy, 256 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 3: when that meeting does happen, Gene, Spurling is going to 257 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:16,160 Speaker 3: be preparing Joe Biden for the conversation, and we bring 258 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 3: him directly to you here on the fastest show in politics. 259 00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 260 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 261 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: tune in alf, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business app. 262 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 263 00:14:34,800 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 264 00:14:40,960 --> 00:14:41,640 Speaker 3: Kind of amazing. 265 00:14:41,680 --> 00:14:45,000 Speaker 8: What big news it is, or was, to have the 266 00:14:45,000 --> 00:14:49,400 Speaker 8: bill pass the House essentially along party lines, the debt 267 00:14:49,400 --> 00:14:52,640 Speaker 8: ceiling proposal put forth by Speaker McCarthy, because nobody actually 268 00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 8: expects that it will become law. 269 00:14:55,040 --> 00:14:57,160 Speaker 3: It's not going to pass the Senate. The President won't 270 00:14:57,200 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 3: touch it anyway. So what is about to happen? Speaker 271 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:02,400 Speaker 3: McCarthy says that is not up to him. 272 00:15:02,520 --> 00:15:03,480 Speaker 4: We just passed the bill. 273 00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,200 Speaker 7: It's not our job to modify it. 274 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:09,880 Speaker 9: The Senate can pass our bill or send us something 275 00:15:09,880 --> 00:15:11,280 Speaker 9: that they have and we'll go to conference. 276 00:15:11,440 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 7: Otherwise, we've done our job. 277 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:14,680 Speaker 3: Let's get into it with our panel, Genie Schanzano and 278 00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:16,920 Speaker 3: Rick Davis are with us. Is this the victory Rick 279 00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,080 Speaker 3: that Speaker McCarthy is making it out to be. 280 00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:21,680 Speaker 4: I'm not sure how much of a victory I would 281 00:15:21,720 --> 00:15:25,320 Speaker 4: call it, but it is certainly a good breathe out right. 282 00:15:25,560 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 4: You know, you can just a sigh of relief that 283 00:15:27,640 --> 00:15:29,880 Speaker 4: he got to the two seventeen that he needed to 284 00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,520 Speaker 4: pass it, and now the focus can shift from the 285 00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:36,160 Speaker 4: floor of the House, within the GOP caucus to you know, 286 00:15:36,800 --> 00:15:39,800 Speaker 4: President Biden, and I think the conversation you just had 287 00:15:39,800 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 4: with Gene Sperling was illuminating and that they want to 288 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 4: have a conversation about both cuts and debt ceiling, but 289 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:47,680 Speaker 4: they want to do it in two different forms and 290 00:15:47,680 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 4: two different bills. So we now see the beginnings of 291 00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 4: the negotiation in earnest. 292 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:54,440 Speaker 3: So is it going to be okay, we agree to 293 00:15:54,480 --> 00:15:58,120 Speaker 3: negotiate the budget now past the debt limit or does 294 00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 3: Speaker McCarthy not speak that language? Genie? 295 00:16:02,240 --> 00:16:04,640 Speaker 10: You know, I think Speaker McCarthy is headed off to 296 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:07,640 Speaker 10: Israel and he wants to just enjoy his mini victory. 297 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:10,080 Speaker 10: But you know, I think the White House has been clear. 298 00:16:10,160 --> 00:16:12,920 Speaker 10: Joe Biden said it yesterday. Jeans Burling just said it 299 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 10: you cannot negotiate on the debt ceiling. They will not. 300 00:16:16,840 --> 00:16:19,240 Speaker 10: So they're gonna talk about and willing to talk about 301 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,480 Speaker 10: the budget, but not the debt ceiling. And you know, 302 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 10: I think this was reiterated. You know, we talked a 303 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:26,520 Speaker 10: lot about them, quoting Ronald Reagan. Just look at what 304 00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 10: Fitch put out the other day, a warning about doing 305 00:16:30,080 --> 00:16:33,080 Speaker 10: just what the Republicans are doing. Using the debt ceiling 306 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:37,440 Speaker 10: as a political tool is incredibly destructive to the US economy, 307 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:41,120 Speaker 10: to the world economy, the US government for decades to come. 308 00:16:41,400 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 10: And I think that's where the President is coming down 309 00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,080 Speaker 10: on this. So he should talk with them about the budget. 310 00:16:46,240 --> 00:16:48,200 Speaker 10: He should not talk with them about the debt ceiling. 311 00:16:48,240 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 10: That should be lifted or in my mind, completely eliminated. 312 00:16:50,920 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 10: It's a ridiculous thing that the US government is doing. 313 00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 3: Should we believe that there are back channels at least 314 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 3: talking here, Rick, or these these two really staring at 315 00:16:58,280 --> 00:16:59,960 Speaker 3: each other from the other side of the mall. 316 00:17:00,800 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 4: Well, certainly, you know the White House of Ledge Affairs 317 00:17:04,200 --> 00:17:07,160 Speaker 4: people whose job it is to talk to both Democrats 318 00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:09,719 Speaker 4: and Republicans on Capitol Hill to sort of get a 319 00:17:09,760 --> 00:17:13,639 Speaker 4: sense of where the opportunities exist to work together or not, 320 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:17,240 Speaker 4: you know, are in touch with their their colleagues. 321 00:17:16,880 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 3: On the hill. 322 00:17:17,320 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 4: And and I'm sure there is a desire as a 323 00:17:21,119 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 4: spouse by Speaker McCarthy to have those conversations. And I 324 00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:27,760 Speaker 4: think it's I think it's a little naive to think 325 00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:30,359 Speaker 4: that that that you can separate these two things at 326 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:32,240 Speaker 4: this day and age, right, I mean, like there have 327 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 4: been other you know, uh, debt ceiling negotiations that included 328 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:40,679 Speaker 4: other issues on the table. And so this isn't an 329 00:17:40,800 --> 00:17:43,919 Speaker 4: unusual thing. And and and the question is whether you 330 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:47,160 Speaker 4: consider it default brickmanship or not. It's where we are today. 331 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:49,959 Speaker 4: And so the sooner this happens, the sooner everybody can 332 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 4: get back into business, uh and trying to do things 333 00:17:52,560 --> 00:17:55,480 Speaker 4: that are productive. So I think speed is key, right, 334 00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 4: I mean, like frankly, I'm if I were McCarthy, I 335 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,280 Speaker 4: would have canceled my trip and said I'm here, I've 336 00:18:00,280 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 4: just canceled my trip. 337 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 3: I'm ready to come over this afternoon. 338 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 4: That would have been I think that would have put 339 00:18:04,280 --> 00:18:06,160 Speaker 4: the heat on the White House that he was really 340 00:18:06,240 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 4: looking for. He doesn't look as serious as he should 341 00:18:08,920 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 4: be by jumping on a plane, as Gennie said, and 342 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:12,919 Speaker 4: going outside the country. 343 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 3: Well, so then, how does the White House make a 344 00:18:15,200 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 3: move here? Genie? How does Joe Biden turn up the heat. 345 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,480 Speaker 3: He's been kind of on the receiving end of questions saying, no, 346 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:23,560 Speaker 3: my position hasn't changed. How does the White House get 347 00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 3: into a higher gear? 348 00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:28,120 Speaker 10: You know, I would hope that they would invite Kevin 349 00:18:28,160 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 10: McCarthy and the Republican leadership to the White House and 350 00:18:31,119 --> 00:18:34,680 Speaker 10: say we are open to having this discussion. Not everything 351 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 10: in the bill that the Republicans passed was a non 352 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 10: starter or crazy. We should cut a spending deal, we 353 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,399 Speaker 10: should slow growth. You know, they need to claw back 354 00:18:43,480 --> 00:18:46,240 Speaker 10: that COVID money. Whether they want to go work requirements 355 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:49,160 Speaker 10: or not, the reality is for independence and moderates, there 356 00:18:49,240 --> 00:18:51,679 Speaker 10: is a sense that if you're receiving public money, you 357 00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 10: should be working. So there is things in there that 358 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 10: they can negotiate on. And I would hope that they 359 00:18:57,240 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 10: would invite those Republican leadership teams over there and they 360 00:19:00,840 --> 00:19:03,679 Speaker 10: would have that discussion. But you know, let's not forget 361 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 10: what's going on in the Senate. We have Jim Justice 362 00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:09,239 Speaker 10: announcing he's running Joe Mansion running he's going to be 363 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 10: more concernedive than the Republicans in the Senate by the 364 00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:14,399 Speaker 10: time this thing is over and Diane Feinstein out. So 365 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:17,720 Speaker 10: when we say we're in a precarious position, how do 366 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:20,560 Speaker 10: they move things through the Senate? The Democrats, I mean, 367 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 10: with that situation on their hands. So we have limited time. 368 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,679 Speaker 10: The houses out next week, Senate in the Democrats have 369 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,359 Speaker 10: got to the Biden ministers, got to get those Republicans 370 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:33,200 Speaker 10: over and start talking about this because getting this through 371 00:19:33,240 --> 00:19:35,080 Speaker 10: the House is going to be hard enough. But look 372 00:19:35,119 --> 00:19:37,840 Speaker 10: at where the Senate is right now, a really tough position. 373 00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:39,480 Speaker 3: Well you went there for me, Genie. I've got to 374 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:42,000 Speaker 3: ask both of you about what's going on in West Virginia, 375 00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 3: where Republican Governor Jim Justice indeed has filed to run 376 00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 3: for Senate, setting up a likely challenge. I think we 377 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:51,720 Speaker 3: can agree with Joe Manchin, who was already in a 378 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:54,000 Speaker 3: pretty vulnerable state here, Rick, what does this mean for 379 00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 3: the seat in West Virginia. 380 00:19:55,720 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 4: Well, West Virginia is a red state and Joe man 381 00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:01,880 Speaker 4: I want to say, Joe man is a unicorn, and 382 00:20:01,960 --> 00:20:03,680 Speaker 4: Joe Mention is a unicorn with a lot of red 383 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 4: stripes on and and so being half read is probably 384 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:11,639 Speaker 4: not going to be good enough. And and Governor Justice 385 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:15,280 Speaker 4: is a very popular governor who's term limited out, and 386 00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 4: he's he's going to keep the bandwagon going. And and 387 00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 4: I think, you know, Joe Manchin's got a lot of 388 00:20:20,600 --> 00:20:22,919 Speaker 4: decisions to make, and one of them is whether he 389 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 4: wants to go through this election. There are rumors that 390 00:20:26,040 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 4: the no Labels people are trying to recruit him to 391 00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:29,280 Speaker 4: run for president. 392 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:30,880 Speaker 3: By good luck, no labels. 393 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,400 Speaker 4: And but I think this is one of the races 394 00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:37,639 Speaker 4: that you're going to see Mitch McConnell very keenly and 395 00:20:37,680 --> 00:20:39,879 Speaker 4: heavily invested in, interested in. 396 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:44,800 Speaker 3: I will win any race I enter. Is the statement 397 00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:49,879 Speaker 3: from Joe Mansion this morning. Genie, I am laser focused 398 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 3: on doing the job West Virginians elected me to do. 399 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 3: Make no mistake, I will win any race I entered. 400 00:20:56,840 --> 00:20:59,320 Speaker 3: Does that sound like a man who's going to run 401 00:20:59,359 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 3: for reelection. 402 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 10: It sounds like a man who is not going to 403 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 10: give up. You know, Whether he runs for president, I 404 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,479 Speaker 10: don't know. I don't think that's a viable prospect at 405 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 10: this point. I do think he runs, and I think 406 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,240 Speaker 10: my question is does he really run as a Democrat 407 00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,200 Speaker 10: at this point, and look at who's in the audience 408 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:21,320 Speaker 10: for Jim Justice, Kelley Moore, Capito, Lindsey Graham. He's got 409 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:25,159 Speaker 10: support amongst Republicans in the Senate, so you know this 410 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 10: is going to be a fight. He is a very 411 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:29,680 Speaker 10: attractive candidate for Republicans in West Virginia in a way 412 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 10: you know Mansin is not. And so I think Democrats 413 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,560 Speaker 10: have a real problem with Manchin as they go forward. 414 00:21:35,720 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 10: He's threatening to pull back his support on the IRA 415 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,720 Speaker 10: and he's the one who negotiated that, which many people 416 00:21:41,760 --> 00:21:43,760 Speaker 10: say was a big misstep on his part. 417 00:21:43,960 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 3: Well, so, yeah, what's the rest of the year going 418 00:21:46,920 --> 00:21:49,080 Speaker 3: to look like for Joe Manchin in the Senate as 419 00:21:49,119 --> 00:21:51,960 Speaker 3: he tries to prove those red stripes you mentioned to 420 00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:52,720 Speaker 3: West Virginians? 421 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 9: Right? 422 00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:55,439 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think certainly I would make a bet that 423 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:58,160 Speaker 4: his voting record's going to look just like Mitch McConnell's, 424 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,000 Speaker 4: except that he caucuses with the Democrats. 425 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:01,959 Speaker 3: So Joe Biden just lost to vote in the Senate. 426 00:22:02,320 --> 00:22:04,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't think that if he's got a piece 427 00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:06,800 Speaker 4: of legislation that he needs pass, he can He can't 428 00:22:06,880 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 4: count on Mansion to be at his side, not that 429 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:12,480 Speaker 4: he's been able to in the first two years of 430 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:16,400 Speaker 4: his presidential term, So maybe nothing really changes in that regard. 431 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 4: But pretending to be a Republican is going to be 432 00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 4: different on the ballot than being a Republican. And I 433 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:25,520 Speaker 4: think Mansion's got a lot of thinking he's got to 434 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:27,720 Speaker 4: do about what kind of strategy he's going to have 435 00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:31,119 Speaker 4: to run because differentiating himself from the Democrats isn't good 436 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 4: enough in a red state. 437 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,159 Speaker 3: Either of you think it's a realistic conversation he runs 438 00:22:35,240 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 3: as an independent genie. 439 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 10: You know, I would have said no six months ago, 440 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 10: but I do think it may be because I'm not 441 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 10: sure how he gets there as a Democrat. Now that said, 442 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,040 Speaker 10: he has committed that he will. But I think given 443 00:22:50,080 --> 00:22:52,800 Speaker 10: what we saw in Arizona with Kristen Cinema, I do 444 00:22:52,920 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 10: think it's a possibility that he runs, isn't it for president? 445 00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 10: For Republican. I don't think that is a viable possibility. 446 00:22:59,800 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 10: I would not recommend that to him, but I do think, hey, 447 00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,640 Speaker 10: he could cross over the Republicans. Imagine what that does 448 00:23:05,680 --> 00:23:06,240 Speaker 10: to the Senate. 449 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 3: That would be something else. Although I don't know if Rick, 450 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:10,919 Speaker 3: if you see that, but does he take the meeting 451 00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 3: to run as for president as an independent, some sort 452 00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,400 Speaker 3: of unity candidate. Well, if he. 453 00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:19,920 Speaker 4: Thinks he's already lost the Senate race, he'll be looking 454 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,000 Speaker 4: for a new job, and at least for you know, 455 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,440 Speaker 4: the next year and a half, he'd be looking like 456 00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:26,440 Speaker 4: a candidate for president. 457 00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:27,320 Speaker 3: So you know, I don't know. 458 00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 4: I mean, it depends upon ultimately what he believes is possible, 459 00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 4: you know, with these independent runs. I've been around independent 460 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,440 Speaker 4: runs a little bit in my career, and so far, 461 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 4: from what I've seen, it's not achievable and has the potential. 462 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 3: Has there ever been so much discontent in the two 463 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:48,800 Speaker 3: sort of presumptive nominees as now? 464 00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: Though? 465 00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:50,240 Speaker 3: Would this be the moment to do it? 466 00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:54,960 Speaker 4: Well, Republicans love Joe Biden as a candidate for president. 467 00:23:55,000 --> 00:23:56,560 Speaker 4: I have no idea what you're talking about. 468 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 3: Fair enough, Geenie, You see this though, sixty seventy percent 469 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 3: say we don't want Biden or Trump to run again. 470 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:05,400 Speaker 3: Wouldn't that be the opening we don't want. 471 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 10: Either one of them? And you know, Democrats love Donald 472 00:24:07,840 --> 00:24:10,200 Speaker 10: Trump more I think than Republicans love Joe Biden to 473 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 10: Rick's points, But there you have it. But the reality 474 00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 10: is the structure of the American electoral system does not 475 00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 10: work well for independence, and it's a very tough run 476 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,640 Speaker 10: to make, so I don't see it succeeding. He could 477 00:24:21,640 --> 00:24:24,240 Speaker 10: do it, but let's not forget Ross PUREU got zero 478 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:28,200 Speaker 10: electoral votes of nineteen percent popular vote, and that's that's striking. 479 00:24:28,600 --> 00:24:32,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, what's that sucking sound? Great talk is always nice 480 00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:34,720 Speaker 3: to take the dive with our panel. Many thanks, Gieni, 481 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,960 Speaker 3: Schanzano and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors. 482 00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 1: You're listening to The Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 483 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,320 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 484 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:47,200 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg 485 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,640 Speaker 2: Business app, or listening on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 486 00:24:51,720 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 3: So big doings today on Capitol Hill as President Un 487 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 3: of South Korea having made the state visit to the 488 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,359 Speaker 3: White House this this week, addresses a Joint Session of Congress. 489 00:25:03,040 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 4: Mister Speaker, the President of the Republic of Korea. 490 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,840 Speaker 3: The great moment always to see a foreign dignitary in 491 00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:15,240 Speaker 3: the Speaker's rostrom here and his message was a positive one. 492 00:25:15,320 --> 00:25:21,800 Speaker 11: This chamber embodies the spirit of Constitution. I'm honored to 493 00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 11: address the members of Congress and the pupil of the 494 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 11: United States. 495 00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 3: And he did, of course this day after the big 496 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:34,760 Speaker 3: bill on the debt limit and the budget passed the House, 497 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 3: and following serious talks this week in Washington. Maybe not 498 00:25:37,920 --> 00:25:40,600 Speaker 3: over the debt limits so much, we're looking forward to 499 00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:45,040 Speaker 3: those talks, but over geopolitics. President Yun making the state 500 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 3: visit to the White House to talk about the Pentagon leaks, 501 00:25:48,520 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 3: threats from North Korea, trade with China. They went into 502 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:56,840 Speaker 3: overtime in the Oval Office. Of course, yesterday's news conference 503 00:25:56,840 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 3: that we brought you here Alive on Bloomberg started ninety 504 00:26:00,320 --> 00:26:03,160 Speaker 3: minutes late because they had a lot to hash out. 505 00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,040 Speaker 3: But the visit also generated one of the best viral 506 00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:09,080 Speaker 3: moments to come from the White House in a long time. 507 00:26:09,119 --> 00:26:12,560 Speaker 3: Have you seen this? As President Biden gave President Yun 508 00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:15,240 Speaker 3: a gift. This is normally what happens on a state 509 00:26:15,359 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 3: visit like this, and in the case of this time, 510 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:22,240 Speaker 3: though a guitar signed by Don McLean. You know American 511 00:26:22,280 --> 00:26:26,200 Speaker 3: pie Don McLean. If you're under forty, you probably don't. 512 00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 3: Turns out that's his favorite tune, and I guess he 513 00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:32,199 Speaker 3: likes to sing. He's a big karaoke guy. When President 514 00:26:32,240 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 3: Biden gave him the guitar. They're up there in front 515 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 3: of the the whole dining room here, asked him to 516 00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,200 Speaker 3: sing it, and he actually took the mic. It's kind 517 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 3: of amazing, man, much to the delight of everyone in 518 00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,160 Speaker 3: the room having a lot of fun at that point, 519 00:26:46,200 --> 00:26:50,960 Speaker 3: maybe a last of one he's speaking. He threw a 520 00:26:51,000 --> 00:26:52,440 Speaker 3: translator to. 521 00:26:53,760 --> 00:26:56,840 Speaker 10: One phrase of this, because here you are the supporters 522 00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:58,640 Speaker 10: and sponsors of the wrong guest list. 523 00:26:58,640 --> 00:26:59,800 Speaker 9: So I'm gonna send shorty. 524 00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,639 Speaker 3: So he gets the pianist to bring him in the 525 00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,600 Speaker 3: key here is that's right, he's actually gonna be a 526 00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,560 Speaker 3: long time ago. He actually gonna do it. 527 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,920 Speaker 11: Music used to make me smile. 528 00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,440 Speaker 3: Yes, I mean he's really getting into this. He's done 529 00:27:23,440 --> 00:27:23,919 Speaker 3: this before. 530 00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:27,880 Speaker 7: I let those people. 531 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,080 Speaker 9: Happy for a while. 532 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:40,360 Speaker 3: Amazing made me. We ride. 533 00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:43,920 Speaker 11: And news on the little staff. 534 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:45,439 Speaker 3: I couldn't do. 535 00:27:46,000 --> 00:27:47,240 Speaker 11: One more steps. 536 00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:49,920 Speaker 6: I don't remember. 537 00:27:49,560 --> 00:27:54,960 Speaker 11: If I tried, Yeah, well about me, well go bride. 538 00:27:55,560 --> 00:27:59,440 Speaker 9: Something touched me be inside the. 539 00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:06,119 Speaker 3: They backed by the Marine Corps band, the place goes wild. 540 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:12,600 Speaker 2: Of course, time ago, I can still you remember how 541 00:28:12,680 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 2: that music used to make me smile. 542 00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,520 Speaker 3: And we're still smiling. Of course, Kaylee Lines is going 543 00:28:18,560 --> 00:28:21,800 Speaker 3: to join us here in Washington for hour two coming up. 544 00:28:22,160 --> 00:28:26,199 Speaker 3: I could make those This was on Ted Lasso last night. Maybe, 545 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 3: of course it was for We'll be joined by you 546 00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:33,280 Speaker 3: and Rellie and Emily Wilkins will join us from Capitol 547 00:28:33,359 --> 00:28:35,720 Speaker 3: Hill coming up. Stay with us on the fastest show 548 00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,960 Speaker 3: in politics, Hour two of Sound On. It starts for 549 00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 3: News on the Doorstep. 550 00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,680 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 551 00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,720 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 552 00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,640 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 553 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:56,040 Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. 554 00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,880 Speaker 3: Kind of a busy day here GDP Data driving the morning, Kaylee. 555 00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,320 Speaker 3: And then of course we're coming off the vote yesterday 556 00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:04,160 Speaker 3: and everyone's trying to figure out how all this comes 557 00:29:04,240 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 3: together now with the prospect of a recession on the horizon, 558 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 3: this line from Chris Zaccharelli got my attention and I 559 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,760 Speaker 3: threw this past Gene Sperling a little bit earlier in 560 00:29:12,800 --> 00:29:16,320 Speaker 3: the show this morning, state of the worst of both worlds, 561 00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,160 Speaker 3: growth down, inflation up. That is not what the administration 562 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 3: wants to hear. 563 00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:23,240 Speaker 12: Yeah, it's like the opposite of the Hannah Montana song. 564 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,400 Speaker 12: But no, it is a really good point because on 565 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 12: the surface, GDP looked really weak. It missed expectations by 566 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,719 Speaker 12: a fairly wide margin. And yet when you look at 567 00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 12: the actual composition of the US economy and what was 568 00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:40,160 Speaker 12: contributing to that GDP disappointment, it's the fact that businesses 569 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 12: are pulling back on investment in inventories, clearly anticipating some 570 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:47,000 Speaker 12: kind of downturn that doesn't necessarily seem to be present 571 00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 12: in the consumer itself spending. Actually, still what is ultimately 572 00:29:50,480 --> 00:29:53,760 Speaker 12: driving this economy. Demand still seems to be strong. So 573 00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,560 Speaker 12: are we getting back into a scenario in which there 574 00:29:56,640 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 12: is too much demand and not enough supply? Remember that's 575 00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:02,320 Speaker 12: what god us into this whole inflation predicament in the 576 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 12: first place because of pandemic era supply chain problems. Now 577 00:30:06,400 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 12: it's a question of could we do this again? What 578 00:30:09,040 --> 00:30:11,239 Speaker 12: does that mean for FED policy as well, especially as 579 00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:13,560 Speaker 12: we're also contending with the threat of default. 580 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:17,360 Speaker 3: Indeed, that's a whole other conversation as well. But remember 581 00:30:17,400 --> 00:30:19,640 Speaker 3: we talked to Mark Sandy this week, yeah, about his 582 00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,320 Speaker 3: research that found this debt limit bill that just passed 583 00:30:22,400 --> 00:30:25,840 Speaker 3: largely on party lines if it were to become law, 584 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:28,480 Speaker 3: would guarantee essentially a recession. 585 00:30:28,640 --> 00:30:28,800 Speaker 7: Yeah. 586 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 12: What he told us earlier this week is that the 587 00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,200 Speaker 12: US economy is on thin ice and this bill would 588 00:30:33,240 --> 00:30:36,920 Speaker 12: push us underwater because of the pullback in spending and 589 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,000 Speaker 12: specifically on some of those entitlement programs. He basically said 590 00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 12: that that has compounding effects that would translate into GDP 591 00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:45,760 Speaker 12: being six to seven tenths of a percent lower than 592 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:48,120 Speaker 12: it would be in the scenario of just a clean 593 00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:50,080 Speaker 12: debt limit raise. And he said that this would also 594 00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 12: mean higher unemployment as well. Granted, that is the bill 595 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:56,960 Speaker 12: as it stands, as it passed, and we know that 596 00:30:56,960 --> 00:30:59,080 Speaker 12: that is not likely to be the final product because 597 00:30:59,080 --> 00:31:00,880 Speaker 12: the Senate is going to let that happen. 598 00:31:00,960 --> 00:31:03,360 Speaker 3: Well, yeah, no one's predicting that. So where are we 599 00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:05,640 Speaker 3: predicting here? That's why we turned to Emily Wilkins from 600 00:31:05,680 --> 00:31:07,880 Speaker 3: Bloomberg Government. She's on the hill right now and joining 601 00:31:07,920 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 3: us from the Senate, and Emily, I wonder your thoughts 602 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,280 Speaker 3: on the next step here. We talked to Jene Spurling earlier. 603 00:31:13,320 --> 00:31:15,959 Speaker 3: The President is still saying he's not going to negotiate 604 00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,800 Speaker 3: the debt limit. They have nothing on the calendar. Does 605 00:31:19,800 --> 00:31:21,960 Speaker 3: Speaker McCarthy actually have to put up a clean debt 606 00:31:21,960 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 3: limit bill to get Joe Biden to the table to 607 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:24,960 Speaker 3: talk about the budget. 608 00:31:25,680 --> 00:31:27,920 Speaker 13: Well, if McCarthy puts up a clean debt limit bill, 609 00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:30,160 Speaker 13: there's not going to be any coming to the table 610 00:31:30,200 --> 00:31:32,840 Speaker 13: to talk. Biden is simply going to be like cool, thanks, goodbye. 611 00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:37,600 Speaker 13: But look at this point, Republicans, what the plan was 612 00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,560 Speaker 13: was basically pass what they passed yesterday and then put 613 00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:45,960 Speaker 13: pressure on the Biden administration. And I think just because 614 00:31:46,000 --> 00:31:49,680 Speaker 13: you're seeing Biden say no at this point doesn't mean 615 00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:52,520 Speaker 13: that you're still not going to see Republicans trying to 616 00:31:53,080 --> 00:31:56,440 Speaker 13: continue to put pressure on the administration to go forward 617 00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,200 Speaker 13: with this. Of course, the good thing if you're Joe 618 00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 13: Biden is that you know you can kind of run 619 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 13: out the clock. There is a clock to run out here. 620 00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 13: There is an x state. It could be in June, 621 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,000 Speaker 13: it could be in July, but you can put that 622 00:32:08,120 --> 00:32:11,560 Speaker 13: additional pressure on it. And for Republicans, you actually heard 623 00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,520 Speaker 13: Kevin McCarthy say yesterday, you know that he began to 624 00:32:14,560 --> 00:32:17,360 Speaker 13: mention the Senate and began to mention working with them, 625 00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 13: and so that could be another potential outlet. If you're 626 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,440 Speaker 13: McCarthy and you do want to see some sort of 627 00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,800 Speaker 13: cuts a company this praise in the debt limit. 628 00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:29,280 Speaker 12: Well, Emily, you say that the Biden administration, the President himself, 629 00:32:29,360 --> 00:32:31,360 Speaker 12: can just kind of let the pressure pile on as 630 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,800 Speaker 12: we loom closer to the X state. But if we 631 00:32:34,840 --> 00:32:36,920 Speaker 12: do default, or if we were to get the US 632 00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,760 Speaker 12: credit rating downgraded as we approach the X state like 633 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,080 Speaker 12: we saw in twenty eleven, why would the president be 634 00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,840 Speaker 12: so confident that it won't be blamed on him as 635 00:32:45,880 --> 00:32:46,960 Speaker 12: the leader of this country. 636 00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:49,600 Speaker 13: I think neither. It doesn't matter. I think if you're 637 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,720 Speaker 13: Kevin McCarthy or Mitch McConnell or Joe Biden, you do 638 00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:55,160 Speaker 13: not want to see the US's credit rating go down. 639 00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 13: That that is something that everyone wants to avoid. Because 640 00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 13: as much as Washington likes to point fingers and play 641 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 13: the blame game, I think to some degree, everyone in 642 00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:07,640 Speaker 13: this town understands that if something like that were to happen, 643 00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 13: everyone would get blamed. Americans. You know, there might be 644 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,680 Speaker 13: some Americans who would say, Oh, it's the Democrats, Oh 645 00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,960 Speaker 13: it's the Republicans, But for the most part, people would 646 00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,760 Speaker 13: look at Washington and say our current leaders are ineffective, 647 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,160 Speaker 13: and that's not what current leaders of either party want. 648 00:33:20,640 --> 00:33:22,760 Speaker 13: And so I think to a certain extent, you're gonna 649 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:26,040 Speaker 13: continue to see the pressure and the tension build here. 650 00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,000 Speaker 13: And I think it's going to become a bit of 651 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,360 Speaker 13: a matter of who blinks first. Either side is trying 652 00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 13: to game out, the other side is trying to lay 653 00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 13: blame at the other. But at the end of the day, 654 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:38,360 Speaker 13: both sides know that it's going to be terrible for 655 00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:41,360 Speaker 13: anyone who's currently in Congress or in the White House 656 00:33:41,800 --> 00:33:43,920 Speaker 13: if the credit rating was to go down and we 657 00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:45,479 Speaker 13: were to get that close to the brink. 658 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,160 Speaker 3: He's leaving town, Speaker McCarthy that is on his way 659 00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,000 Speaker 3: to Israel for an important speech, or so the Speaker's 660 00:33:51,040 --> 00:33:53,680 Speaker 3: office would tell you that, Emily, the Senate is in 661 00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:57,640 Speaker 3: next week, the House is not. The X date is coming. 662 00:33:58,880 --> 00:34:03,320 Speaker 3: At what point does Speaker McCarthy finally offer something to 663 00:34:03,360 --> 00:34:05,240 Speaker 3: the White House other than what passed yesterday. 664 00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:09,400 Speaker 13: Well that's a really really good question, and I'd be 665 00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,319 Speaker 13: interested to see how Republicans move on this. If they 666 00:34:12,440 --> 00:34:15,279 Speaker 13: just wind up saying, fine, Biden's not working with us, 667 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 13: He's not coming to the table, will continue to blame 668 00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 13: on them, and we'll start working with our Senate counterparts, 669 00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 13: because certainly, if you're a Republican in the Senate, you 670 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,719 Speaker 13: know sixty votes are needed. You need to be on 671 00:34:26,760 --> 00:34:29,200 Speaker 13: board with this, and there are certainly a number of Republicans, 672 00:34:29,239 --> 00:34:32,280 Speaker 13: including in Democrats if you want to include Joe Manchin 673 00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:35,120 Speaker 13: and and other Democrats in a similar mindset, who do 674 00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 13: are open to some of these spending cuts into seeing 675 00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,000 Speaker 13: some of these reforms going along with a debt limit increase. 676 00:34:41,040 --> 00:34:44,080 Speaker 13: I mean, there are things within the bill that could 677 00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:47,440 Speaker 13: potentially be palatable to both sides. It's just if you're 678 00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,040 Speaker 13: a Democrat, why would you even open the possibility when 679 00:34:50,080 --> 00:34:52,040 Speaker 13: you can still continue to push for a clean debt 680 00:34:52,040 --> 00:34:54,160 Speaker 13: limit and you still have some time to get that done. 681 00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:57,440 Speaker 3: I only thank you as always. Emily Wilkins Bloomberg Government 682 00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 3: Congression or reporter joining us Live with her take from 683 00:35:00,800 --> 00:35:03,719 Speaker 3: Capitol Hill. Is we want to Kaylee move to the 684 00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:07,359 Speaker 3: market perspective on this. I mean, obviously nobody's worried about 685 00:35:07,360 --> 00:35:10,080 Speaker 3: this today on Wall Street. You've got the dalop over 686 00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:12,560 Speaker 3: four hundred points right now, markets near their highs, as 687 00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,399 Speaker 3: Charlie Pellett told us, Yeah, so they're going to work 688 00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:16,719 Speaker 3: it out, right, Yeah. 689 00:35:16,560 --> 00:35:19,640 Speaker 12: I mean, maybe pay attention to the earnings in front 690 00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,480 Speaker 12: of you immediately, and don't worry about the X state 691 00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:25,200 Speaker 12: looming way farther in front of you, eyes on the 692 00:35:25,280 --> 00:35:27,760 Speaker 12: current prize perhaps for the market, but there's a question 693 00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:30,520 Speaker 12: of whether or not that is the correct sentiment in 694 00:35:30,560 --> 00:35:32,560 Speaker 12: this moment. So let's ask you and Lli he is 695 00:35:32,600 --> 00:35:35,960 Speaker 12: co founder and managing partner of BDA Partners, You and 696 00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,080 Speaker 12: thank you so much for being with us. Are market's 697 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,279 Speaker 12: right to be so chilled out about this at the moment? 698 00:35:42,360 --> 00:35:45,200 Speaker 12: Can they take any solace from the fact that McCarthy's 699 00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:47,360 Speaker 12: bill passed on the House floor yesterday, even if it 700 00:35:47,400 --> 00:35:49,200 Speaker 12: doesn't really seem to get as much of anywhere in 701 00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:50,480 Speaker 12: terms of an actual solution. 702 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:55,279 Speaker 9: Yes, the markets are right. I think the market's always 703 00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:59,600 Speaker 9: right in the medium term. Markets like calm, They like 704 00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,319 Speaker 9: of a deal. Look, I think McCarthy's seen off the 705 00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:08,319 Speaker 9: looney wing of his party, the bomb throwing debt spartans. 706 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 9: You know, they're being a bit quieter now. Although McCarthy's 707 00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 9: position is a little fragile, I think we as investors 708 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,240 Speaker 9: all believe that that you know, there's there's there's nothing 709 00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:24,879 Speaker 9: really dramatic going on. We assume, we know that the 710 00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:29,080 Speaker 9: Republicans have been blamed in recent years for any threat 711 00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,640 Speaker 9: of government shut down. We assume there's going to be 712 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:37,640 Speaker 9: some kind of compromise, whether it's completely clean or involved 713 00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:42,000 Speaker 9: some kind of budgetary cuts, the market would be fine with, 714 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:45,279 Speaker 9: frankly speaking with either of those things. And at the 715 00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:48,560 Speaker 9: same time, it looks like, you know, finally we're moving 716 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:53,279 Speaker 9: towards what might be a very very shallow recession. If 717 00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,200 Speaker 9: we have any recession at all, should be a shallow recession. 718 00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:01,440 Speaker 9: We've got the the the tech company, big tech companies 719 00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:05,560 Speaker 9: are performing better than we feared, and so there's a 720 00:37:05,560 --> 00:37:06,920 Speaker 9: lot of cause for optimism. 721 00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,480 Speaker 12: You and if I could just go back to something 722 00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,360 Speaker 12: you just said, which is that the market would be 723 00:37:11,360 --> 00:37:13,840 Speaker 12: fine with spending cuts. As Joe and I were just discussing, 724 00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,759 Speaker 12: we spoke with Mark Zandi of Moody's earlier this week, 725 00:37:16,800 --> 00:37:20,399 Speaker 12: who was talking about the economic ramifications of spending less, 726 00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:22,799 Speaker 12: how that would hit GDP, how that would ultimately lead 727 00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:27,280 Speaker 12: to a higher unemployment rate. You think that wouldn't happen. 728 00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:31,920 Speaker 9: I think that any debt cuts will be very very modest, 729 00:37:31,960 --> 00:37:36,280 Speaker 9: frankly everything. You know that that we love divided government, 730 00:37:36,440 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 9: because divided government means you've got to find a compromise 731 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:43,560 Speaker 9: in the mid and you know, neither party is in 732 00:37:43,640 --> 00:37:49,440 Speaker 9: a position to force anything very radical through today. So 733 00:37:49,800 --> 00:37:52,640 Speaker 9: I don't think we'll see dramatic debt cuts. I think 734 00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:56,640 Speaker 9: we've got a as you mentioned earlier, a very resilient 735 00:37:56,800 --> 00:38:02,240 Speaker 9: US consumer. We've got a relatively benign in political environment, 736 00:38:02,360 --> 00:38:04,399 Speaker 9: or a little bit less fraud than it has been. 737 00:38:04,760 --> 00:38:09,840 Speaker 9: So I think I think the future looks fairly good. 738 00:38:11,160 --> 00:38:14,880 Speaker 3: Wow, this is just unexpected optimism. You and I have 739 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,839 Speaker 3: to tell you. This is so. The gridlock is good, 740 00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:18,239 Speaker 3: is what you're suggesting. 741 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:19,640 Speaker 9: The gridlock is good. 742 00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,240 Speaker 12: I aspire to this level of calmness. 743 00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:24,000 Speaker 3: Jeff, I know, well, I mean it's playing out in 744 00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,280 Speaker 3: the markets, I suppose here. But where are you factoring 745 00:38:27,320 --> 00:38:29,920 Speaker 3: in the prospect for a hard landing or no landing. 746 00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 3: You and assuming that that we avoided downgrade, we avoided default, 747 00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,440 Speaker 3: what's the economy look like in the back half of 748 00:38:36,480 --> 00:38:36,759 Speaker 3: the year. 749 00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:41,480 Speaker 9: I think the economy looks like pretty much zero growth, 750 00:38:42,239 --> 00:38:46,040 Speaker 9: will flirt with either side of a recession, but that's okay. 751 00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:49,880 Speaker 9: That means a soft landing to me. And I think that, 752 00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:54,120 Speaker 9: you know, as we start to see the pace of 753 00:38:54,160 --> 00:38:57,839 Speaker 9: interest rates interest rate rises, you know that those will 754 00:38:57,880 --> 00:39:01,320 Speaker 9: peter out again. I think you know, we were worried 755 00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:03,640 Speaker 9: a year ago, we were worried six months ago that 756 00:39:03,719 --> 00:39:06,880 Speaker 9: there could be drama on the on the horizon. I 757 00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:09,520 Speaker 9: don't see any drama today, and investors love it when 758 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:10,680 Speaker 9: there's no drama out there. 759 00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,280 Speaker 3: And the GDP data this morning does not give you pause. 760 00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:17,680 Speaker 9: It's it's it's it's softer, but it's it's not terrible. 761 00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:21,200 Speaker 12: But the composition of that data, you and the fact 762 00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,239 Speaker 12: that GDP was softer, but it was because of a 763 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:28,279 Speaker 12: pullback in business investment in inventories, kind of signaling a 764 00:39:28,320 --> 00:39:32,640 Speaker 12: constrain on the supply side, while spending was still fairly robust. Right, 765 00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,160 Speaker 12: it still seems like consumer demand is there. Are you 766 00:39:35,239 --> 00:39:37,400 Speaker 12: worried at all that we're heading for kind of a 767 00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:41,400 Speaker 12: second inflationary spike and for a market that is expecting 768 00:39:41,400 --> 00:39:43,640 Speaker 12: the Fed to be cutting by the end of this year, 769 00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:44,920 Speaker 12: the Fed might need to keep hiking. 770 00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,480 Speaker 9: You know, we criticize the Fed for quite rightly, I think, 771 00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:52,600 Speaker 9: for being slow to raise rates in this cycle. I 772 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:56,960 Speaker 9: think the rate rises the beginning to take hold. I 773 00:39:56,960 --> 00:40:00,920 Speaker 9: think we're seeing a very very raw US consumer. And 774 00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:05,080 Speaker 9: I think although invent trees are lower because for sure, 775 00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,920 Speaker 9: manufacturing output has been a bit thin, business investments a 776 00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,319 Speaker 9: bit thin. But but no, I'm not I'm not too 777 00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:14,960 Speaker 9: worried because I think, uh, you know, we again, we 778 00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:18,000 Speaker 9: were worried that we might have quite a sharp recession, 779 00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:22,239 Speaker 9: that the the interest rate rises would really damage the economy. 780 00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:25,600 Speaker 9: I think earnings haven't been as bad as we expected 781 00:40:25,680 --> 00:40:29,520 Speaker 9: right over the last a week or two, not not 782 00:40:29,680 --> 00:40:33,239 Speaker 9: just tech, but even even across industrial earnings. You know, 783 00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:38,480 Speaker 9: more companies have beaten consensus forecast and than than have 784 00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:44,280 Speaker 9: failed to match consensus forecasts. So again we're just pleased 785 00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:45,800 Speaker 9: that nothing terrible has happened. 786 00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,440 Speaker 3: Well, okay, this is good, but if we start moving closer, 787 00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,080 Speaker 3: we get an X date un and start moving closer 788 00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,760 Speaker 3: to the line with no clear path here in talks 789 00:40:55,800 --> 00:40:59,040 Speaker 3: with Speaker McCarthy and President Biden, assuming that they take place, 790 00:40:59,120 --> 00:41:02,520 Speaker 3: or maybe there's no clean debt limit bill, how would you, 791 00:41:02,560 --> 00:41:04,920 Speaker 3: as a trader start moving to protect yourself. 792 00:41:06,239 --> 00:41:10,640 Speaker 9: Look, I think you know that that there are reasons 793 00:41:10,640 --> 00:41:12,640 Speaker 9: to be cautious. I don't think we're going to go 794 00:41:12,719 --> 00:41:17,799 Speaker 9: along in any direction immediately. I think we're expecting we're 795 00:41:17,840 --> 00:41:21,799 Speaker 9: expecting fairly flat markets across the board. You know, I'm not. 796 00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:26,880 Speaker 9: I'm not completely expecting a rosy future, But for now, 797 00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:32,200 Speaker 9: the politics seemed calm. Of course, there's there's always scope 798 00:41:32,640 --> 00:41:37,960 Speaker 9: for for some drama, but for now, even though McCarthy's 799 00:41:38,000 --> 00:41:40,200 Speaker 9: position is a bit fragile, he's holding on pretty well. 800 00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:43,840 Speaker 12: What if the drama doesn't come from the government and 801 00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:48,319 Speaker 12: from politicians but instead from banks. Again you and I mean, 802 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:51,160 Speaker 12: how worried are you about the situation with First Republican, 803 00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,040 Speaker 12: whether or not that's going to have more extended ripple 804 00:41:54,040 --> 00:41:55,320 Speaker 12: effects or be contained. 805 00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:57,200 Speaker 1: I don't. 806 00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,600 Speaker 9: I don't want to sound naive. I think First Republic 807 00:41:59,640 --> 00:42:02,319 Speaker 9: is a pro it's and it's surprising to me that 808 00:42:02,360 --> 00:42:03,719 Speaker 9: nobody's stepped in. 809 00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,320 Speaker 12: And yeah, it doesn't seem the government has any appetite 810 00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:07,560 Speaker 12: at all to step in at this point. 811 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,160 Speaker 9: Again, if if, if, if Marcus reacted really poorly, we've 812 00:42:12,200 --> 00:42:15,920 Speaker 9: seen the government will take quite dramatic action when it 813 00:42:15,960 --> 00:42:19,160 Speaker 9: needs to. But actually I'm less focused on on First 814 00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:23,120 Speaker 9: Republic that on Berclays and Deutsche, who again, although they're 815 00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:28,400 Speaker 9: European heavyweights. You know, Berklay's talked positively about US credit 816 00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:34,680 Speaker 9: card business. We're seeing, we're seeing a relatively benign environment. 817 00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:37,560 Speaker 9: Some of that, some of that chaos in the banking 818 00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:42,000 Speaker 9: sector seems to have abated. I don't want to give 819 00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,080 Speaker 9: the government too much credit. The authority is too much 820 00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,440 Speaker 9: credit for having got it right. But I think, you know, 821 00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:51,360 Speaker 9: generally they dealt well with with the Silicon Valley Bank, 822 00:42:51,800 --> 00:42:56,239 Speaker 9: and I think that now the you know, again, we've 823 00:42:56,239 --> 00:43:00,919 Speaker 9: seen some crisis in European banking, but we're really, more 824 00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:05,280 Speaker 9: more than anything else, relieved that Buckley's and Deutsche performing well. 825 00:43:05,320 --> 00:43:07,120 Speaker 3: Youw and thanks for checking in. It's great to hear 826 00:43:07,160 --> 00:43:09,480 Speaker 3: your take, you and Relly. We all feel better now somehow. 827 00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:12,279 Speaker 3: Co founder managing partner b d A Partners, I feel 828 00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:16,080 Speaker 3: could about myself suddenly, Kayley, Unless, of course, these guys 829 00:43:16,120 --> 00:43:17,280 Speaker 3: don't figure it out down. 830 00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:21,040 Speaker 12: Here, right, you can be optimistic, maybe with a great 831 00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:22,040 Speaker 12: degree of caution. 832 00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,520 Speaker 3: Sure, exactly with regard to the banks, though, you know, 833 00:43:25,640 --> 00:43:28,040 Speaker 3: it's interesting to hear his take on that. We were 834 00:43:28,040 --> 00:43:31,480 Speaker 3: talking about First Republic at this time yesterday, and boy, 835 00:43:31,520 --> 00:43:34,000 Speaker 3: the reaction was brutal. We're going to get a report 836 00:43:34,040 --> 00:43:36,360 Speaker 3: tomorrow from the FED on this that's going to be 837 00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:37,440 Speaker 3: the next leg in that story. 838 00:43:37,719 --> 00:43:40,759 Speaker 12: Yeah, eleven am tomorrow, the FED releases the report from 839 00:43:40,840 --> 00:43:43,920 Speaker 12: Vice Chair of Supervision Michael Barr about what exactly happened 840 00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:47,080 Speaker 12: with the supervision of SVB and ultimately its failure. I 841 00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:49,280 Speaker 12: guess it's a question of how quickly could that report 842 00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,319 Speaker 12: date itself depending on what ends up happening already. 843 00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:55,040 Speaker 3: Dated, right, Yeah, coming up, we talked to Leroy Chow, 844 00:43:55,160 --> 00:44:01,120 Speaker 3: legendary astronaut about the risk from space. This is Bloomberg. 845 00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,759 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 846 00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:07,800 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern. 847 00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,719 Speaker 2: On Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg 848 00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:14,160 Speaker 2: Business App, or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. 849 00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:18,080 Speaker 3: We know there's a new space race underway as NASA 850 00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:20,920 Speaker 3: prepares its return to the Moon, and Elon Musk plays 851 00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:24,319 Speaker 3: with his toys, really cool toys actually for toys, Yeah 852 00:44:24,719 --> 00:44:26,759 Speaker 3: that's right, even when they blow up, they're actually kind 853 00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,200 Speaker 3: of cool. But he wants to go to Mars Kayley 854 00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:33,279 Speaker 3: and the idea is here to sort of find our 855 00:44:33,320 --> 00:44:36,960 Speaker 3: way through the universe to preserve humanity if you talk 856 00:44:37,000 --> 00:44:39,400 Speaker 3: to him, because eventually this little blue marble might not 857 00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:43,959 Speaker 3: be so hospitable. But there's also what's looking a lot 858 00:44:44,000 --> 00:44:47,520 Speaker 3: like a military space race beyond the civilian space race. 859 00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:49,839 Speaker 3: That's got a lot of people worried about what might 860 00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:54,200 Speaker 3: be going on high above advers series in space. And 861 00:44:54,239 --> 00:44:55,919 Speaker 3: there was a Washington Post story about it this week 862 00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:58,960 Speaker 3: that got us all talking. Kind of a scary assessment. 863 00:44:59,000 --> 00:45:04,040 Speaker 3: Here our adversaries develop advanced technologies to counter the capabilities 864 00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:06,920 Speaker 3: of the Space Force. Someday we got to go to 865 00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,959 Speaker 3: a briefing at Space Force. Just I want the patch. Yes, 866 00:45:10,000 --> 00:45:13,520 Speaker 3: I love that. The highest ranking uniformed member of the 867 00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,480 Speaker 3: Space Force Chief, how about this for a title of 868 00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:21,400 Speaker 3: US Space Operations General Bradley Chance. Saltzman actually had to 869 00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:23,600 Speaker 3: testify on Capitol Hill. This is what you do when 870 00:45:23,600 --> 00:45:26,120 Speaker 3: you go up there budget time. It was a meeting 871 00:45:26,120 --> 00:45:29,280 Speaker 3: of the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. He told senators about 872 00:45:29,280 --> 00:45:31,160 Speaker 3: what Russia and China have been working on. 873 00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,400 Speaker 14: Both China and Russia continued to develop, field and deploy 874 00:45:34,880 --> 00:45:38,760 Speaker 14: a range of weapons aimed at US space capabilities, cyber 875 00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:44,000 Speaker 14: warfare activities, electronic attack platforms, directed energy lasers designed to 876 00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:48,160 Speaker 14: blind or damage satellite sensors, ground to orbit missiles to 877 00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:52,680 Speaker 14: destroy satellites, and space to space orbital engagement systems that 878 00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,640 Speaker 14: can attack US satellites in space. 879 00:45:55,920 --> 00:45:59,200 Speaker 3: Ah, so that's a lot. In its annual Space Threat 880 00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,800 Speaker 3: Assessment Report we're out this month, the Center for Strategic 881 00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:05,680 Speaker 3: and International Studies finds China continues to make progress toward 882 00:46:05,719 --> 00:46:09,360 Speaker 3: its goal of becoming the world leader in space. And 883 00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,520 Speaker 3: so we thought we'd talked to somebody who's been to space. 884 00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:16,360 Speaker 3: Leroy Chowd, legendary astronaut, former commander of the International Space Station, 885 00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,880 Speaker 3: spent two hundred and twenty nine days Kali in space 886 00:46:18,920 --> 00:46:24,080 Speaker 3: across four missions. Pretty cool now, co founder CEO of 887 00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:27,799 Speaker 3: One Orbit, Leroy, thank you for being with us as 888 00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,160 Speaker 3: we consider the idea of a military space race alongside 889 00:46:31,520 --> 00:46:34,000 Speaker 3: the civilian one. Is China the great threat? 890 00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:38,520 Speaker 7: Absolutely? And you know, the space race, I should point out, 891 00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:41,160 Speaker 7: is nothing new. This has been going on for a 892 00:46:41,239 --> 00:46:43,680 Speaker 7: number of years, first of course with the Soviets and 893 00:46:43,680 --> 00:46:47,239 Speaker 7: the Russians, and then more recently with China. But even 894 00:46:47,239 --> 00:46:49,280 Speaker 7: with China has been going on for quite a while. 895 00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,160 Speaker 7: And so this has come into the forefront because of 896 00:46:53,239 --> 00:46:56,319 Speaker 7: some of these leaks of these classified documents and assessments, 897 00:46:56,920 --> 00:46:58,840 Speaker 7: but they are definitely continuing. 898 00:46:59,600 --> 00:47:03,320 Speaker 12: There's the geopolitics on planet Earth. Then there's the geopolitics 899 00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:08,120 Speaker 12: of extra Earth outside Earth, outside of our atmosphere, in space. 900 00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:10,520 Speaker 12: But when we think of space so often, in at 901 00:47:10,600 --> 00:47:13,600 Speaker 12: least I'm guilty of this, I think of SpaceX, rocket 902 00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:18,000 Speaker 12: launches and astronauts like yourself. What I don't always think 903 00:47:18,000 --> 00:47:20,839 Speaker 12: about is the fact that we are highly reliant on 904 00:47:20,920 --> 00:47:24,759 Speaker 12: satellites and their ability to transmit information to us here 905 00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:28,359 Speaker 12: on Earth. Is satellites and the threat to satellites really 906 00:47:28,400 --> 00:47:30,239 Speaker 12: the biggest issue at play here. 907 00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:34,080 Speaker 7: Absolutely, it's definitely one of the biggest, if not the 908 00:47:34,200 --> 00:47:38,200 Speaker 7: biggest problem. Is how do we protect our satellite assets 909 00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:42,040 Speaker 7: If we're blind, if we can't see what's going on 910 00:47:42,120 --> 00:47:45,080 Speaker 7: in other countries or on the battlefield, if we can't 911 00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:49,480 Speaker 7: pick up signals with signals intelligence to help do the same, 912 00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,600 Speaker 7: if we can't communicate, if we can't have GPS to 913 00:47:53,480 --> 00:47:57,160 Speaker 7: guide our forces guide well just about everything we do. 914 00:47:57,920 --> 00:48:02,840 Speaker 7: Then you know, that's obviously understated a big problem. So yes, 915 00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:05,080 Speaker 7: I mean, we have been figuring out ways to deny 916 00:48:05,160 --> 00:48:07,680 Speaker 7: other countries to do that. Other countries have been figuring 917 00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:10,759 Speaker 7: out how to deny US with those capabilities. And so 918 00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,279 Speaker 7: you know that the great game in space continues. And 919 00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:17,200 Speaker 7: I should point out that the spending on military space 920 00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:20,840 Speaker 7: way way, way way out paces by orders of magnitude 921 00:48:21,160 --> 00:48:23,160 Speaker 7: the amount of spending on space exploration. 922 00:48:23,520 --> 00:48:26,720 Speaker 3: Believe all of that. Leroy mentioned the leak documents, Kaylee, 923 00:48:26,719 --> 00:48:29,800 Speaker 3: and we talked about so many of them even yesterday 924 00:48:29,840 --> 00:48:32,839 Speaker 3: with the South Korean state visit. In this case, though, 925 00:48:32,840 --> 00:48:35,560 Speaker 3: as the Post reports, the documents show China has developed 926 00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:40,080 Speaker 3: significant capabilities to hold key US and Allied space assets 927 00:48:40,080 --> 00:48:44,560 Speaker 3: at risk and would deploy them in the world of 928 00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:48,360 Speaker 3: a conflict with Taiwan. That's been, of course a major 929 00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,760 Speaker 3: concern here. Leroy. Should we assume, though, that the threat 930 00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:55,400 Speaker 3: from Russia when it comes to space has been greatly 931 00:48:55,440 --> 00:48:57,839 Speaker 3: diminished If they can't even build tanks right now for 932 00:48:58,000 --> 00:49:01,680 Speaker 3: the war in Ukraine. 933 00:49:00,120 --> 00:49:02,799 Speaker 7: I would say definitely the threat from Russia has been 934 00:49:02,840 --> 00:49:06,080 Speaker 7: diminished because their economy is not what it used to be. 935 00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:10,960 Speaker 7: Their space infrastructure has been crumbling for many years. Frankly, 936 00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:13,320 Speaker 7: I don't think they would have a human spaceflight program 937 00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:17,320 Speaker 7: if we the United States through NASA, we're not propping 938 00:49:17,360 --> 00:49:21,480 Speaker 7: them up. And so their's military space is similarly in 939 00:49:21,520 --> 00:49:24,640 Speaker 7: a state of decline. And so China, on the other hand, 940 00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,000 Speaker 7: is going in the other direction. They're spending more and 941 00:49:27,080 --> 00:49:29,760 Speaker 7: more on space and military space, you can be sure. 942 00:49:30,239 --> 00:49:34,280 Speaker 7: And they are, you know, technologically I think superior to Russia, 943 00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:37,920 Speaker 7: and you know, so they definitely are the threat. 944 00:49:39,760 --> 00:49:42,120 Speaker 12: Yeah, and part of the League documents, as Joe was 945 00:49:42,160 --> 00:49:44,680 Speaker 12: just alluding to, they say, is part of a military 946 00:49:44,719 --> 00:49:48,200 Speaker 12: strike on Taiwan, China would probably jam communications and intelligence 947 00:49:48,239 --> 00:49:51,760 Speaker 12: satellites that can see through clouds, degree or destroy space 948 00:49:51,800 --> 00:49:56,879 Speaker 12: ground networks and destroy ballistic missile early warning satellites are 949 00:49:56,920 --> 00:50:01,399 Speaker 12: the greatest weapons in play in modern warfare right now, 950 00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:04,720 Speaker 12: putting aside perhaps nuclear space weapons. 951 00:50:06,280 --> 00:50:08,920 Speaker 7: I would say that's a fair statement because you know, 952 00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:12,920 Speaker 7: if you're blind both you know, optically and electronically in 953 00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:15,440 Speaker 7: other ways, then you don't know what's going on, and 954 00:50:15,480 --> 00:50:18,759 Speaker 7: then there's a lot of uncertainty, and in uncertainty that's 955 00:50:18,800 --> 00:50:21,719 Speaker 7: when rash the decisions might get made. And so it 956 00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:26,520 Speaker 7: is certainly a threat. And my guests, I mean, I 957 00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:28,920 Speaker 7: don't know, I'm not a military expert, but in a 958 00:50:29,000 --> 00:50:32,960 Speaker 7: conflict with involving Taiwan. Would I would guess that China 959 00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:36,440 Speaker 7: or any other adversary would resort to destroying our assets 960 00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:39,920 Speaker 7: as literally a last resort, because you know, you're pretty 961 00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:43,520 Speaker 7: much opening the door to you know, possibly unlimited warfare. 962 00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:47,440 Speaker 7: Then they might try to jam signals and obfuscates, but 963 00:50:47,640 --> 00:50:50,920 Speaker 7: you know, to actually attack our assets, you know, that 964 00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:53,400 Speaker 7: would be a huge step in the wrong direction. 965 00:50:53,840 --> 00:50:56,880 Speaker 3: This must be a very sobering conversation for you, Leroy, 966 00:50:56,920 --> 00:51:01,120 Speaker 3: who have enjoyed such a positive experience as space explorer, 967 00:51:01,120 --> 00:51:05,800 Speaker 3: and I just wonder if it threatens NASA's exploration mission. 968 00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:10,080 Speaker 3: While we're talking about military threats in orbit and beyond. 969 00:51:10,920 --> 00:51:13,880 Speaker 7: Well, NASA has always been independent. NASA was created to 970 00:51:13,880 --> 00:51:16,839 Speaker 7: be the civil space agency, so we really have done 971 00:51:16,920 --> 00:51:20,960 Speaker 7: nothing militarily except the military has contracted in the past, 972 00:51:21,000 --> 00:51:24,399 Speaker 7: many years ago to launch some of the or maybe 973 00:51:24,480 --> 00:51:29,000 Speaker 7: not the military, but anyway, national security agencies have contracted 974 00:51:29,080 --> 00:51:33,640 Speaker 7: NASA to launch Spice satellites in the past, so you know, 975 00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:38,800 Speaker 7: but by and large, NASA is completely you know, disassociated 976 00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,600 Speaker 7: from the military space side. So I don't expect that 977 00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:44,880 Speaker 7: the exploration programs would slow down, especially since we're not 978 00:51:44,960 --> 00:51:48,600 Speaker 7: partnering in exploration at the current time with either Russia 979 00:51:48,719 --> 00:51:51,880 Speaker 7: or nas or China, and so our partners of the 980 00:51:51,880 --> 00:51:55,120 Speaker 7: Europeans and the Japanese and the Canadians and a few 981 00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:58,960 Speaker 7: other Western European countries. But so I don't think that 982 00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,080 Speaker 7: would necessarily slow Well. 983 00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:03,920 Speaker 12: We also know that NASA is partnering with the private 984 00:52:03,960 --> 00:52:08,160 Speaker 12: sector for space exploration commercialization purposes. We have seen a 985 00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:11,440 Speaker 12: real build up in these private sector companies, SpaceX being one. 986 00:52:11,880 --> 00:52:15,080 Speaker 12: What role do private companies play in space security? In 987 00:52:15,120 --> 00:52:18,319 Speaker 12: this other part of the conversation we're having, well. 988 00:52:18,239 --> 00:52:20,320 Speaker 7: As far as space security goes, and you're right, NASA 989 00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,239 Speaker 7: is partnering very much more and more so with the 990 00:52:22,400 --> 00:52:24,600 Speaker 7: likes of SpaceX, and I think that's a very positive thing, 991 00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:26,680 Speaker 7: by the way, I think it'll speed things way up. 992 00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:30,560 Speaker 7: But as far as military space, you know, commercial companies, 993 00:52:30,600 --> 00:52:33,560 Speaker 7: the way that they are providing services, if you will, 994 00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:37,960 Speaker 7: you know, both maybe to the maybe a little bit 995 00:52:37,960 --> 00:52:41,319 Speaker 7: to the consternation of the US military, is that these 996 00:52:41,360 --> 00:52:47,080 Speaker 7: commercial satellite operators are providing high resolution imagery from around 997 00:52:47,120 --> 00:52:49,879 Speaker 7: the world just about anywhere you want. Almost anyone can order, 998 00:52:50,719 --> 00:52:54,160 Speaker 7: you know, imagery from these private companies that's really really good. 999 00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:57,279 Speaker 7: I mean I don't know how they compared to you know, 1000 00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:01,560 Speaker 7: our current military or classified systems because I'm not privy 1001 00:53:01,560 --> 00:53:06,680 Speaker 7: to that, but uh, these commercial these commercial services are 1002 00:53:06,719 --> 00:53:07,359 Speaker 7: really really good. 1003 00:53:08,680 --> 00:53:11,680 Speaker 3: We don't hear a lot from Space Force, Leroy. At 1004 00:53:11,680 --> 00:53:14,200 Speaker 3: one point it was it was a laugh line in 1005 00:53:14,239 --> 00:53:16,920 Speaker 3: the White House briefing room when this all came about 1006 00:53:16,960 --> 00:53:19,880 Speaker 3: in the competition for the logo and all this stuff 1007 00:53:19,960 --> 00:53:21,839 Speaker 3: is Space Force up to. 1008 00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:26,880 Speaker 7: This, Oh absolutely, Space Force is just a repackaging of 1009 00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:29,040 Speaker 7: Space Command of the Air Force. You know, so Space 1010 00:53:29,040 --> 00:53:31,759 Speaker 7: Force is doing everything Space Command was doing for the 1011 00:53:31,760 --> 00:53:34,279 Speaker 7: Air Force. So you just had all these people change 1012 00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:36,840 Speaker 7: uniforms and you know, move over to the new force. 1013 00:53:37,200 --> 00:53:40,120 Speaker 7: I mean that's a bit simplistic. But there's been no 1014 00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:44,920 Speaker 7: diminishment in capability, certainly not. And if anything, there's probably 1015 00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:48,040 Speaker 7: been enhancements in that. You know, Space Force now has 1016 00:53:48,120 --> 00:53:51,960 Speaker 7: their own budget and maybe that's been increased, and they're developing. 1017 00:53:52,120 --> 00:53:55,400 Speaker 7: You know, they're concentrating on space rather than you know, 1018 00:53:55,480 --> 00:53:58,920 Speaker 7: the whole bigger picture of the Air Force, which was 1019 00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:01,160 Speaker 7: air and space. 1020 00:54:01,640 --> 00:54:04,360 Speaker 3: Thanks so much for joining us, Leroy Chow, legendary astronaut 1021 00:54:04,360 --> 00:54:11,719 Speaker 3: and former Commander of the ISS. Thanks for listening to 1022 00:54:11,719 --> 00:54:14,080 Speaker 3: the Sound on Podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you 1023 00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:17,000 Speaker 3: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get 1024 00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:20,080 Speaker 3: your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday 1025 00:54:20,080 --> 00:54:23,480 Speaker 3: from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg 1026 00:54:23,560 --> 00:54:25,560 Speaker 3: dot com