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Speaker 1: The most valuable commodity I know of this information. Wouldn't

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Speaker 1: you agree? I got five dollars?

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Speaker 2: This is a raal les Happny tackleship. One man. You're

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Speaker 2: saying that humans need fantasy to make life bearable. Humans

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Speaker 2: need fantasy to be human. My goodness. That was good.

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Speaker 3: You guys prone the best, relentless, refusing to give up.

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Speaker 1: All right, hit that horn, bab less.

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Speaker 2: What is up?

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Speaker 4: Everybody? Welcome to the Fantasy Flex Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I am your host, Chris Raybond the Action Network, and

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Speaker 2: this is our AFC East Fantasy Preview episode. Here to

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Speaker 2: break it down with me one of the top rankers

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Speaker 2: in the game, Sean Kerner.

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Speaker 4: Sean, what do you do?

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Speaker 1: All right? It's gone good. How about your house? New York?

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Speaker 4: New York is good.

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Speaker 2: I've been moved. I mean I'm back in LA now.

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Speaker 2: I've been moving on around. I was in New York

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Speaker 2: last weekend. I'm out in Denver this weekend. So uh yeah,

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Speaker 2: I've been moving around, but I got to make sure

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Speaker 2: to touch down so you can get these episodes popping.

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Speaker 2: And uh we're gonna go pretty in depth and for

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Speaker 2: the next four weeks we're gonna do two divisions per week,

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Speaker 2: so uh, stay tuned for those, everybody, and we're gonna

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Speaker 2: jump right into it. This episode. The AFC is just

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Speaker 2: kind of touching on every fantasy relevant player who we

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Speaker 2: think is undervalued, overvalued, and properly valued, uh in terms

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Speaker 2: of early June average draft position. So let's start it

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Speaker 2: off with the Buffalo Bills. I'm gonna go in order

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Speaker 2: of division odds for for this, so we'll start with

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Speaker 2: the Bills, then we'll go to the Jets, Dolphins, and

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Speaker 2: then Patriots. So Josh Allen is the QB two only

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Speaker 2: behind Janeuen Hurts. He was the QUB two are better

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Speaker 2: in each of the last three seasons in terms of

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Speaker 2: Fantasy points per game among quarterbacks to played eight games

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Speaker 2: for more, and in twenty twenty two top five finishes

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Speaker 2: in eleven of sixteen games, and he was top twelve

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Speaker 2: in all but one game and that was still a

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Speaker 2: QB eighteen finished. So I mean, this guy is just

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Speaker 2: super consistent. I mean, are there any holes to poke

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Speaker 2: in Josh Allen headed into twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 5: No, there are not, And I guess the days of

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Speaker 5: us getting Jalen Hurts outside of the top six.

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Speaker 1: Are over by the sound of it. Yeah, but I

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Speaker 1: still Josh Allen QB one.

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Speaker 5: I still think he has a higher four ceiling combo

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Speaker 5: than Hurts, but it's very close. And last year he

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Speaker 5: would have been He finished as QB two, but he

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Speaker 5: would have been the QB one had they actually played

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Speaker 5: the Bills Bengals game. You know, they had to postponent

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Speaker 5: due to Damar Hamlin's injury, but he would have been

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Speaker 5: the QB one. So I have no reason to rank

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Speaker 5: him below number one. I thought, you know, I was

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Speaker 5: a bit worried last year. You know, they lost offensive

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Speaker 5: choir Brian Dable to the Giants. Obviously that Ken Dorsey

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Speaker 5: picked up where he left off, so it didn't really

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Speaker 5: have that.

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Speaker 1: Much of an impact on the offense.

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Speaker 5: Josh Allen is still a you know, a major duel

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Speaker 5: threat quarterback. He's actually seen his passing yards and touchdowns

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Speaker 5: per game go down each of the last three season,

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Speaker 5: with it with his RUSSI attempts and yards again going

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Speaker 5: up each of the last three seasons. So he turns

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Speaker 5: twenty seven this season, I think we could see that

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Speaker 5: trend start to reverse. I don't know how much longer

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Speaker 5: he's gonna lean on his legs. But either way, he

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Speaker 5: just has that massive floor ceiling combo. He still has

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Speaker 5: Stefan Diggs, Gabe Davis. They arguably picked, you know, the

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Speaker 5: best pass touching tight end in this class. So I

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Speaker 5: think Daltonton Kaid adds a new element to this offense. So,

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Speaker 5: like I said, I'm still projecting Josh Allen as a

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Speaker 5: QV one heading into this season.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think it's really tough to find anything major

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Speaker 2: to kind of, you know, knock Josh Allen for I

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Speaker 2: think maybe, like you said, you know, the one thing

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Speaker 2: you could kind of point to is maybe at some

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Speaker 2: point that the rushing production starts to reverse a little bit.

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Speaker 2: But you look at the tight end, Like you said,

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Speaker 2: they got better at tight end, I actually think they

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Speaker 2: got better at the McKenzie position because I think Deontay

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Speaker 2: Hardy is actually a better receiver than Isaiah McKenzie. You know,

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Speaker 2: James Cook may add a little more to that to

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Speaker 2: the receiving game as a pass catcher than Singletary. You

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Speaker 2: still got Hines if you ever want to take them

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Speaker 2: out the bubble wrap and put them on offense. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: I mean, I think, you know, maybe the rushing production

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Speaker 2: and obviously, I think the one there would be a

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Speaker 2: pretty like I would say a down to if Stefan

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Speaker 2: Diggs were to miss time.

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Speaker 4: I think that's probably the one thing.

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Speaker 2: But you know, for wide receivers, guy like Diggs has

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Speaker 2: been pretty durable over the last few years, so that's

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Speaker 2: not a very high probabilit but that's probably the only

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Speaker 2: thing I could think of that woul knock Josh Allen down,

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Speaker 2: you know, more than like what one or two pegs,

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Speaker 2: you know, he'd probably be more in the QB five

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Speaker 2: six ish range maybe if Digs were out, but still

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Speaker 2: high floor, high ceiling quarterback is Josh Allen? Yeah, I

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Speaker 2: like him as QB one as well. By the way,

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Speaker 2: I know he is QB two. I think when you

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Speaker 2: look at Jalen Hurts, I think he has a little

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Speaker 2: more potential to regress. And Patrick Mahomes, you know, I

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Speaker 2: know there he's been great, but not quite the rushing

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Speaker 2: production of those other two guys. Ye, James Cook RB

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Speaker 2: twenty nine And by the way, we're using best ball

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Speaker 2: adp from the past two weeks, so trying to get

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Speaker 2: it as accurate as possible but still give it somewhat

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Speaker 2: of a sample size. Not much has happened in the

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Speaker 2: last two weeks, so it should be pretty good to

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Speaker 2: go here. James Cook is the RB twenty nine, and

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Speaker 2: I know we were kind of a little hesitant on Cook,

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Speaker 2: you know, post draft he was starting to creep up

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Speaker 2: into the top, you know, near the top twenty four.

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Speaker 4: But what do you think about him at RB twenty nine.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, it looks like his ADPs dipped a bit. The

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Speaker 5: last time I was talking about him, he was run

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Speaker 5: RB twenty four, which I thought was a little bit

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Speaker 5: too high for him. I haven't ran around RB twenty seven,

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Speaker 5: so I'm pretty much in line with the ADP right

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Speaker 5: now now.

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Speaker 2: He did.

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Speaker 5: He had a disappointing rookie season, and you have to

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Speaker 5: wonder if the fact that he fumbled his very first

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Speaker 5: touch if you remember opening night, yeah there'sign football against

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Speaker 5: the Rams, if that set him back a bit because

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Speaker 5: he didn't really give much work for the first half

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Speaker 5: of the season. The only time he saw five or

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Speaker 5: more rush attempts was in blowout games in the first

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Speaker 5: half of the season. But ultimately his talent did prevail

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Speaker 5: and it did allow him to eat into Singletary's workload

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Speaker 5: in the second half.

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Speaker 1: Of the season and he didn't.

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Speaker 5: He came out of college as being one of the

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Speaker 5: top halfs catching back, but he didn't top twenty five

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Speaker 5: percent routes run rate until Week thirteen, which was basically

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Speaker 5: why he had a disappointed rookie season. I thought he

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Speaker 5: was gonna be clearing fifty percent from the get go,

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Speaker 5: so I think heading into this year, we can expect

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Speaker 5: him to be averaging closer to sixty percent routes run

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Speaker 5: per game, being the true passing down back. However, you know,

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Speaker 5: they brought in Damian Harris Latavius Murray, so I think

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Speaker 5: that is going to cap his ceiling. I think they

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Speaker 5: are going to use those backs pretty heavily on the

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Speaker 5: early downs, so I don't think we can really count

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Speaker 5: on James Cook to be a true workhorse back. So

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Speaker 5: that's why his ceiling is limited. But I think with

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Speaker 5: the receiving work, he should have a high enough floor

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Speaker 5: to be in the RB three flex range. So I

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Speaker 5: kind of do like his ADP where he is right now.

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Speaker 5: But again, I just don't know if his ceiling is

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Speaker 5: you know, RB one status, even if one of the

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Speaker 5: other running backs were to go down.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think back to Devin Singletary, and there was

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Speaker 2: a few stretches over the last couple of seasons where

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Speaker 2: Singletary started playing on ninety plus percent of the snaps.

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Speaker 2: And I don't necessar Sai, we know if Cook will

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Speaker 2: do that, although I will say this, you know, Damien

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Speaker 2: Harris at times has struggled with with his durability. Fourteen

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Speaker 2: miss games over the past three seasons, questionable in nine more,

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Speaker 2: and he's had ten different injuries over that span. So

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Speaker 2: you know, if Harris does get hurt, you know naim Heines,

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Speaker 2: they were really reluctant to use him last season, just

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Speaker 2: three point seven routes per game and under a carry

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Speaker 2: per game for nim Hines as a Buffalo bill.

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Speaker 4: So it is possible.

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Speaker 2: But you know, Brandon Bean has said, and the GM

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Speaker 2: baron and Bean has said, we're going to give him

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Speaker 2: an expanded workload.

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Speaker 4: We're going to give him more touches.

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Speaker 2: And you look at Singletary and he's average about eleven

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Speaker 2: carries per game over the last two years, and that

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Speaker 2: was good enough for a running back twent he's seven

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Speaker 2: to twenty eight finished. So I agree, I think he's

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Speaker 2: properly priced at this point, but maybe doesn't have that

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Speaker 2: you know, top five, top top eight upside, but should

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Speaker 2: be a pretty safe play because I don't think Damien

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Speaker 2: Harris is going to be a massive factor. He only

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Speaker 2: got one million guaranteed, with Tavius Murray got eight hundred

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Speaker 2: k guaranteed, So I mean it's not even a There

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Speaker 2: might be more of a competition than we think for

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Speaker 2: that big back Zach Moss role. But I think, you know,

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Speaker 2: going to Harris, who's the RB forty one, He's the

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Speaker 2: guy I actually struggle with a little more because in

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, Buffalo's non Devin Singletary carries amounted to

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Speaker 2: about seven per game. Damien Harris has never averaged even

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Speaker 2: one and a half targets per game. Ye you know,

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Speaker 2: he's about one in one point four for his career.

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Speaker 2: Excuse me, so you know the path catching where it's

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Speaker 2: not really going to be there, don't know if Buffalo

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Speaker 2: is necessarily going to get super run heavy to where

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Speaker 2: you're talking about you know, more than seven or eight

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Speaker 2: non singletary carries. So at RB forty one, this isn't

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Speaker 2: This is one I'd probably say has more downsides and

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Speaker 2: upside because this is Harris is really a guy I

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Speaker 2: can't see getting you know, ninety percent of the snaps

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Speaker 2: because he doesn't he doesn't really do much on passing downs.

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Speaker 2: I think then you would just see more Nim Hines.

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Speaker 2: So talk to me about how you feel about Harris.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree.

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Speaker 5: Usually the forty one range is for handcuffs, and certainly

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Speaker 5: Damien Harris is one. But even if James Cook were

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Speaker 5: to go down what you alluded to, I think just

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Speaker 5: naim Heines would step right into that role. So Damien

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Speaker 5: Harris is pretty much capped from the get.

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Speaker 1: Go and just just backing up a little bit with

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Speaker 1: the Bills.

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Speaker 5: It's oh like for the past few seasons, I always

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Speaker 5: feel like we shouldn't vet's in Bill's running backs because

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Speaker 5: it's such a potent, high scoring offense. But it rarely

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Speaker 5: works out because this is johnsh Allen's offense. You know,

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Speaker 5: he doesn't throw the running backs much. He scores a

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Speaker 5: ton of touchdowns around the goal line, so he kind

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Speaker 5: of SAPs a lot of the value we would get

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Speaker 5: from being in.

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Speaker 1: A high octane offense.

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Speaker 5: So not unless we see what we saw at that

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Speaker 5: at the end of the twenty twenty one season where

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Speaker 5: they just said Devin Singletary just be our workhorse back.

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Speaker 5: That was the only time we were able to get

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Speaker 5: like a true RB two RB one potential out of

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Speaker 5: the Bills backfield. So just heading into the season, it

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Speaker 5: does look like a sort of murky two to three

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Speaker 5: way committee which caps everyone's upsides. So yeah, I'm definitely

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Speaker 5: out on Harris at RB forty one and going back

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Speaker 5: to just James Cook. The fact that he's the pass

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Speaker 5: catching back on a team with a win total of

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Speaker 5: what eleven and a half right now doesn't bode well

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Speaker 5: because you know, most of their game scripts are going

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Speaker 5: to be leading game scripts and they won't have to

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Speaker 5: throw that much to the running back. So I just

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Speaker 5: think everybody's ceiling is capped too much to really invest

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Speaker 5: their current ADP.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I would still say like again, I

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Speaker 2: think I agree, but I think Cook is more properly

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Speaker 2: valued in terms of his median, whereas I think Harris

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Speaker 2: may be a little bit overvalued.

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Speaker 4: I can see Harris.

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Speaker 2: Being a bus you know, when you combined the propensity

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Speaker 2: for miss games with the fact that I can't even

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Speaker 2: really see a route to more than you know, eight

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Speaker 2: eight nine carries a game unless unless you see an

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Speaker 2: injury to Cook, you know.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, so yeah, there's a guy he's going one slot

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Speaker 5: below James Cook, Alexander Madison, who could have a news

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Speaker 5: item happen in the next couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: That makes him a borderline RB one, you know.

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Speaker 5: So those are the kind of players I'm interested investing

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Speaker 5: in this range Overcook. But like you said, he's properly priced.

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Speaker 2: Right now, all right, And yeah, Heines, you know, looks

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Speaker 2: like he's just kind of going to be that RB

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Speaker 2: three's the Taywan Jones of this off mats it seems

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Speaker 2: to be Heines. But if Heines does play more like

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Speaker 2: like again, I think James Cook, like we have a

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Speaker 2: precedent with him. We have Devin Singletary, who you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of played but you know, two thirds of the time,

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Speaker 2: didn't necessarily play every single pass down step, still did

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Speaker 2: enough to kind of get to that, you know, in

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Speaker 2: the top thirty. Whereas if Naim Heine starts playing just

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Speaker 2: a little bit more than he did last year, that's

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Speaker 2: it for Damian Harris. So yeah, I think Harris just

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Speaker 2: a lot more downside than upside.

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Speaker 4: Let's go to wide receiver.

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Speaker 2: We got Stefan Diggs quawking in at the wide receiver

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Speaker 2: five in ADP, and he's been extremely consistent the past

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Speaker 2: three years. You've had three top ten finishes in terms

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Speaker 2: of points per game. He's gotten as high as wide

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Speaker 2: receiver three. Last year he was the wide receiver five

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Speaker 2: and PPR and the wide receiver six in half PPR

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Speaker 2: points per game among wide receivers with at lead.

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Speaker 4: Least eight games played. So, you know, kind of a

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Speaker 4: just ho hum boring, you.

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Speaker 2: Know, this is what he is. Yeah, any extremely good,

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Speaker 2: but anything round breaking the.

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Speaker 5: Air, it's just we you know who he is. He's

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Speaker 5: as reliable as it gets. You know, he's gonna be

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Speaker 5: turning thirty towards the end of the season. I wouldn't

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Speaker 5: worry about that. I think he still has one more

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Speaker 5: just elite season and then maybe next year we start

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Speaker 5: to see the production drop off.

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Speaker 1: But I'm a fan of lockdown.

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Speaker 5: Wide receivers at this part in the draft, so if

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Speaker 5: he was available, it makes sense.

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Speaker 1: He's really in a log jam.

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Speaker 5: You could argue Digs, DeVante Adams, Ceee lamb Aman, Ron

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Speaker 5: Saint Brown could be in this wide wide receiver five slot.

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Speaker 5: But yeah, like Digs, just one of the highest floors,

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Speaker 5: like you said, just another ho hum good season for

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Speaker 5: him coming up.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, I noticed his targets per route

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Speaker 2: run actually went up from twenty to twenty one, from

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Speaker 2: about twenty four percent to about twenty six, a little

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Speaker 2: over twenty six percent.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, he's showing no signs of small down.

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Speaker 2: And I know the Buffalo did add some pass catchers,

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Speaker 2: you know, below digs on the depth chart and at

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Speaker 2: tight end. But you know, when you talk about a

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Speaker 2: target hog wide receiver, one that's usually not going to

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Speaker 2: affect them. It's just going to kind of affect the

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Speaker 2: distribution below them. So you can kind of expect a

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Speaker 2: guy like Diggs to continue performing at the rate that

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Speaker 2: we've seen him.

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Speaker 4: And I mean, you know it's it's a.

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Speaker 2: Very high rate, so very high level. So let's talk

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Speaker 2: about Gave Davis because I know you like him last

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Speaker 2: year and I have you This is I never thought

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Speaker 2: i'd say this, but you like him, I think a

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Speaker 2: lot more than I do. I'm I'm a bit kind

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Speaker 2: of skeptical, I should say, uncertain as of now anyway

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Speaker 2: about the range of outcomes for Gave Davis. So talk

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Speaker 2: to me about Gabe and and why you like him.

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Speaker 2: He's at wide receiver forty one, by the way.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so here we go again.

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Speaker 5: I'm pretty high on Gave Davis, but I will admit,

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Speaker 5: you know, he definitely didn't need the expectations I had

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Speaker 5: for him last year. I think, you know, we can

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Speaker 5: say he's a little bit too inconsistent. He's probably better

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Speaker 5: for best ball, Like, he's not that consistent wide receiver too.

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Speaker 5: I thought he could be. But having said that, you know,

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Speaker 5: he still had a strong season. He's still finishes the

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Speaker 5: wide receiver twenty seven. He only felt like a bus

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Speaker 5: just because he was so inconsistent. But you know, coming

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Speaker 5: up with some excuses for him last year, we have

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Speaker 5: to remember he missed Week two due to an ankle injury,

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Speaker 5: and I thought he returned a little bit too soon.

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Speaker 5: I remember the couple games after that he seemed pretty

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Speaker 5: limited and then we I forgot to mention it, but

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Speaker 5: Josh Allen had that pretty scary elbow injury in Week

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Speaker 5: nine to his UCL nerve, and he seemed a little

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Speaker 5: less willing to throw downfield. He struggled for a couple

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Speaker 5: games after that, So there were a couple of stretches

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Speaker 5: where I can kind of make an excuse for Gabe Davis,

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Speaker 5: But at the end of the day, you know, he's

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Speaker 5: the main deep.

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Speaker 1: Threat, which makes him pretty.

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Speaker 5: Volatile week two weeks, So you know, getting him outside

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Speaker 5: of the wide receive three range makes a ton of sense.

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Speaker 1: This year.

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Speaker 5: I think we're getting him at a pretty good price.

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Speaker 5: So I think he does bounce back this year with

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Speaker 5: sort of the season I was expecting last year. I

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Speaker 5: think everything's gonna line up and we're getting him at

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Speaker 5: a cheaper price.

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Speaker 1: But I think he's just.

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Speaker 5: An amazing investment in Best Ball because you don't have.

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Speaker 1: To figure out which weeks he's going to go off.

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Speaker 5: But I will be the first one to admit that

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Speaker 5: he is a little he's going to be inconsistent.

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Speaker 2: So my thing about Gave Davis is I he obviously

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Speaker 2: retains his you know, top fifteen isch ceiling. You know,

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Speaker 2: if he has a bunch of those big games, you know,

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Speaker 2: maybe an outlier you know, one, two, three more, you

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Speaker 2: know two or three more, I guess, So then you know,

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Speaker 2: you would kind of expect he's going to you know,

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Speaker 2: kind of crack that top thirty and probably even the

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Speaker 2: top twenty five. But here's why I think there is

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Speaker 2: some downside that balances that out. Buffalo was reporting with

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Speaker 2: one of the two teams along with Kansas City, that

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Speaker 2: was pursuing a trade for DeAndre Hawk. So what that

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00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:05,359
Speaker 2: tells me is that they aren't completely happy with Gabe

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Speaker 2: Davis as the wide receiver too, because Hopkins would obviously,

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Speaker 2: you know, be ahead of him if if they acquired him,

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Speaker 2: and Buffalo I've seen them anywhere from about plus five

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Speaker 2: point fifty to plus two point fifty or three hundred

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Speaker 2: to land Hopkins. So some somewhere in that you know,

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Speaker 2: twelve to twenty percent raign chance. So there's it's an't

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Speaker 2: there's a non zero chance that Buffalo does end up

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Speaker 2: signing Hopkins. And then the other thing, you know that

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Speaker 2: that's one part of the downside that you know, until

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Speaker 2: Hopkins gets signed, I'm gonna feel a little uneasy about

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Speaker 2: about Gabe Davis. But the other thing is, you know,

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Speaker 2: now that we're three years into his career, you know,

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Speaker 2: wide receivers tend to break out year two, year three,

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Speaker 2: and with Davis, you know, we've kind of now seen

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Speaker 2: what he is. He's never topped eighteen percent targets per out,

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Speaker 2: even last season when he was that clear number two

376
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Speaker 2: wide receiver he was, he was still hovering in that

377
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Speaker 2: sixteen seventeen percent range, never top fifty seven percent catch rate,

378
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Speaker 2: and you know, never top three point two catches per game.

379
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Speaker 2: And still, you know, even though we saw that massive

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Speaker 2: touchdown game and I think this is the one he

381
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Speaker 2: could probably top the easiest, but he still never scored

382
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Speaker 2: half a touchdown a game in the regular season.

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Speaker 4: So you know, now that we have a bigger sample,

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Speaker 4: we kind of know what he is.

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Speaker 2: I think the projection is a little bit more toned

386
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Speaker 2: down in terms of, you know, okay, if we expect

387
00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 2: him to kind of play this role, this is what

388
00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 2: we're gonna get out of him. And so that kind

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Speaker 2: of combined with the fact that there is some downside

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00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 2: just because maybe they aren't totally happy. Maybe they are

391
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Speaker 2: looking for a guy like DeAndre Hopkins who would come

392
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Speaker 2: in and you know, command probably you know, seven eight

393
00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 2: targets per game, even with Stefan Diggs there. You know

394
00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,360
Speaker 2: that that's kind of why I think Davis is probably

395
00:20:06,040 --> 00:20:10,640
Speaker 2: properly rated or even a little overrated. Right now, I'm

396
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Speaker 2: just considering the downside, but you know, the massive upside

397
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Speaker 2: kind of I would say, he's probably properly rated at

398
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Speaker 2: forty one, but I'm not ready to say that he's

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Speaker 2: undervalued yet until we get Hopkins kind of off the

400
00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:23,800
Speaker 2: board and on somebody's team.

401
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Speaker 1: Yeah, I know those are all fair points.

402
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 5: And yeah, the potential Hopkins signing certainly adds a wrinkle.

403
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,159
Speaker 5: I don't know if it's as good as close to

404
00:20:33,240 --> 00:20:34,879
Speaker 5: five to one odds. I think it's a little bit

405
00:20:34,920 --> 00:20:37,720
Speaker 5: less likely than that. But if Hopkins were to go

406
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:40,480
Speaker 5: to the Bills, I would obviously downgrade gave Davis, and

407
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,600
Speaker 5: a lot of the fair criticisms that Davis has had

408
00:20:43,640 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 5: over the past couple of seasons certainly makes sense.

409
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Speaker 1: So that's fair.

410
00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,080
Speaker 5: I still love his upsidet this price, so we can

411
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Speaker 5: agree to disagree here, and.

412
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Speaker 2: Then you know, Coleer secure, I mean going as wide

413
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Speaker 2: receiver eighty seven. I know some people are going to

414
00:20:56,359 --> 00:20:58,480
Speaker 2: kind of be hyped about him. I actually think Deyontay

415
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:00,600
Speaker 2: Hardy might end up with that wire for three row

416
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Speaker 2: if they don't sign Hopkins. He got over five million

417
00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 2: guaranteed and Isaiah McKenzie, who you know, they could have

418
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:09,360
Speaker 2: just brought back.

419
00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 4: He got four hundred.

420
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Speaker 2: K guaranteed, So they've paid about ten x more more

421
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 2: than ten x for Deontay Hardy and Brandon Bean said

422
00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:21,840
Speaker 2: he was going to play inside and outside and a

423
00:21:21,880 --> 00:21:23,680
Speaker 2: lot of people would be surprised because he's like five

424
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,960
Speaker 2: six one seventy, but he actually has played more outside

425
00:21:26,960 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 2: in his career than inside. He's a better run blocker

426
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 2: than Shakir somehow. Uh So, yeah, I think Shakiir, you know,

427
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,520
Speaker 2: especially when you consider that you could get Hopkins, which

428
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 2: would push Shakir potentially as low as wide receiver five

429
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 2: and as high as you know, the ceiling would be

430
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Speaker 2: wide receiver four. In that case, you also have Kinkaid,

431
00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 2: who could end up being like a like a de

432
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 2: facto slot receiver, which still means, uh, Shakiir may likely

433
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:57,000
Speaker 2: be like the fifth option. Uh I really, I'm not

434
00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 2: feeling Shakiri. I usually like these guys, you know, heading

435
00:21:59,760 --> 00:22:02,560
Speaker 2: into or two. But I just think the way the

436
00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:06,200
Speaker 2: Bills have been moving this offseason, you know, trying to

437
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: sign Hopkins going and getting Kincaid, giving an over five

438
00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 2: million to Deontay Hardy kind of tells you that, you know,

439
00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 2: not just maybe gave Davis, but maybe Shaquier is as

440
00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 2: a guy that maybe still a year away, you know,

441
00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:24,000
Speaker 2: so you know that's where I'm at with him. I

442
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 2: think you know him at eighty seven and Hardy at

443
00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 2: one ten. I don't know how many people this is

444
00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,520
Speaker 2: gonna affect, but I think they should be a lot

445
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:34,800
Speaker 2: closer together, and i'd probably actually rank Hardy a smidge above.

446
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 4: Above Shakir.

447
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:38,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's interesting.

448
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,960
Speaker 5: I think both are cheap enough where look, we want

449
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 5: to invest in the Bills offense wherever you can, especially

450
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,120
Speaker 5: you know, getting a cheap you know, their number three

451
00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 5: wide receiver, whether it Shakir or Hardy remains to be seen.

452
00:22:49,359 --> 00:22:52,239
Speaker 5: But I'm kind of fading the situation because you mentioned it.

453
00:22:52,280 --> 00:22:55,200
Speaker 5: They drafted Dalton Kincaid, which means they're either going to

454
00:22:55,280 --> 00:22:58,040
Speaker 5: run more two tight end sets or Kincaid's gonna run

455
00:22:58,240 --> 00:23:00,520
Speaker 5: out of the slot more So, I just think king

456
00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:02,680
Speaker 5: Kaid's going to sort of take over this number three

457
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 5: wide receiver role, you know, the McKenzie or you know,

458
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 5: uh Cole Beasley type role. So I just think the

459
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:11,479
Speaker 5: offense is gonna it's gonna change in that way. So

460
00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 5: maybe Shakira and Hardy just aren't going to be used

461
00:23:14,040 --> 00:23:16,879
Speaker 5: as much as people think. So yeah, I just I

462
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:19,800
Speaker 5: haven't been investing in this number three wide receiver slot

463
00:23:19,840 --> 00:23:20,200
Speaker 5: at all.

464
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, I'm just looking at him relative to each other.

465
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 2: I think, you know, thirty thirty three slots or twenty

466
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: three slots is a lot, Yeah, considering, I think it's

467
00:23:30,560 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 2: you know, neck and neck. But yeah, let's talk about

468
00:23:32,520 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 2: those titans. Kincaid's going tight end seventeen and Dawson Knox

469
00:23:36,880 --> 00:23:39,120
Speaker 2: is going one spot above him at tight end sixty. Now,

470
00:23:39,800 --> 00:23:43,600
Speaker 2: I will say this, Kincaid, obviously he's a rookie, went

471
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,800
Speaker 2: wait in the first round out of Utah. Did play

472
00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 2: about fifty five percent out of the slot and and

473
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:53,199
Speaker 2: another ten percent out wide, so about two thirds of

474
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,240
Speaker 2: his snaps were essentially as a wide receiver in his

475
00:23:56,320 --> 00:24:00,480
Speaker 2: final year at school last year. But you would need

476
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: about ninety eight just under one hundred and half PPR

477
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,880
Speaker 2: points to finish as a tight end seventeen.

478
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 4: About five rookie tight.

479
00:24:08,760 --> 00:24:12,320
Speaker 2: Ends have done that over the past decade, ten since

480
00:24:12,800 --> 00:24:14,760
Speaker 2: the league went to thirty two teams in two thousand

481
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:17,719
Speaker 2: and two, So it's rare. It happens about once every

482
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 2: other year. But Kinkaid, certainly, I think has the talent

483
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: to do it. So what do you think about that

484
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 2: that tight end seventeen ADP and then also about nots

485
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:27,879
Speaker 2: going once behind.

486
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:30,679
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it's interesting. I think we saw the

487
00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:33,480
Speaker 5: ADP flip. It used to be the other way around,

488
00:24:33,480 --> 00:24:36,639
Speaker 5: which made sense. So I think we're getting some decent

489
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 5: value on Kincaid right now. I think he should go

490
00:24:39,280 --> 00:24:41,800
Speaker 5: inside the top fifteen. He just has a ton of

491
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,080
Speaker 5: upside in this offense, and I really do think he

492
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 5: was the best catch catching tight end in this class.

493
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:50,080
Speaker 5: I would compare his upside similar to like Mark Andrews.

494
00:24:50,119 --> 00:24:52,480
Speaker 5: I'm not saying he will be that good, but that's

495
00:24:52,480 --> 00:24:55,160
Speaker 5: certainly what his ceiling is. So when you talk about

496
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 5: like pass rookie seasons, he's certainly capable of, you know,

497
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:02,320
Speaker 5: finishing in the tip fifteen. He just landed in a

498
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,679
Speaker 5: great offense. I think that's first and foremost why I

499
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,159
Speaker 5: love him. They could use him in the slot. He

500
00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:09,200
Speaker 5: could be a red zone weapon, so there's a ton

501
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,159
Speaker 5: of pass to him hitting value here. I probably wouldn't

502
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 5: take him over a Greg Dulcic or a Chiga Quonku,

503
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:17,120
Speaker 5: but I would certainly take him over a Cole Comet

504
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 5: or Dawson Knox. So I think that's kind of how

505
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 5: I'm valuing him. So I think he should be you know,

506
00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 5: tight end fifteen. That's where i'd probably take him. I

507
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 5: think that's sort of baking in his upside with the

508
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 5: potential risk of taking a rookie. And on the other side,

509
00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 5: I'm just fading Dawson Knox. I think, you know, he's

510
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 5: probably a little bit overpriced. He still has touch on

511
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 5: ups side. You know, I think they're still going to

512
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,320
Speaker 5: use him pretty much the same, especially in the red zone.

513
00:25:44,359 --> 00:25:46,800
Speaker 5: But again, like I think that Kincaid is going to

514
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 5: hit you know, his target share and potentially his his

515
00:25:50,080 --> 00:25:52,399
Speaker 5: red zone share as well, So I think he certainly

516
00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 5: limits knocks upside. So I'm passing on Knox being one

517
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:57,680
Speaker 5: saw higher than Kinkaid right now.

518
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so I totally agree. I think I think Kai

519
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 2: doesn't have some upside, But again, DeAndre Hawkins would also

520
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 2: impact him as well, right.

521
00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: Hell ya right right?

522
00:26:09,880 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 2: So, uh, you know, to recap, I know, you like

523
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 2: gave Davis as a sleeper for me, I like, I

524
00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:20,600
Speaker 2: like Kinkaid and and Deontay Hardy. If once DeAndre Hopkins

525
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:22,920
Speaker 2: is off the boarding, he's not in Buffalo, then give

526
00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:25,600
Speaker 2: me some kincaid and give me hardy and in super

527
00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:29,040
Speaker 2: deep weeds as like a fade on Shakir and I

528
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,400
Speaker 2: know we're both on the same page as far as uh,

529
00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 2: you know, over valued guys.

530
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 4: It's Dawson Knox at tight end sixteen.

531
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:37,240
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna be much more of a blocker.

532
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 2: It was a very good blocker, but it just hasn't

533
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:44,199
Speaker 2: really put it together as a receiver outside of you know, touchdowns,

534
00:26:44,200 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 2: which are as we know, hard to count on from

535
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,320
Speaker 2: week to week and even and season the season as well.

536
00:26:50,840 --> 00:26:55,919
Speaker 2: I'm also way off, way out. Excuse me on Damien Harris,

537
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,479
Speaker 2: I think he's going to be a bust at RB

538
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 2: forty one.

539
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:00,280
Speaker 4: Uh and obviously should.

540
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,280
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Speaker 4: Let's go to the Jets. Aaron Rodgers is the QB fourteen.

565
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,880
Speaker 2: I know we were low on him as adp has

566
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:35,280
Speaker 2: come down a little bit and there's probably not too

567
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 2: many quarterbacks you can fad him with beyond SHT fourteen.

568
00:28:38,960 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 2: But I still don't love him because John, I mean

569
00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 2: this dude, in the first six week of the season,

570
00:28:45,200 --> 00:28:50,480
Speaker 2: he faces defenses got finished one, two, three, seven, and

571
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:54,720
Speaker 2: eight in past DVOA, So it's hard for me to,

572
00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 2: you know, want to draft him in a redraft. He

573
00:28:56,960 --> 00:29:01,080
Speaker 2: had career lows in as a starter last year in

574
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 2: yards per attempt passer rating QBR no top five finishes

575
00:29:06,360 --> 00:29:09,080
Speaker 2: last year. I know he had the thumb, but he's

576
00:29:09,120 --> 00:29:14,200
Speaker 2: also old. I'd rather jump off a year too soon

577
00:29:14,280 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 2: than a year or two later. He's just not very intriguing.

578
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 2: Is there any reason for me to change my mind?

579
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:21,120
Speaker 5: No, not really, because you could still get Jared Goff

580
00:29:21,120 --> 00:29:21,960
Speaker 5: two slots later.

581
00:29:22,240 --> 00:29:23,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, so as long as you can get.

582
00:29:23,800 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 5: Jared Goff after Rogers, I'm still fading him. But it

583
00:29:27,360 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 5: was interesting to see his ADP drop five slots, so

584
00:29:30,120 --> 00:29:31,720
Speaker 5: I'm more in line with it now.

585
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:33,880
Speaker 1: But I do think this.

586
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:37,160
Speaker 5: Team change will be closer to the Peyton Manning Tom

587
00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,280
Speaker 5: Brady late career team changed than the Russell Wilson one.

588
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,560
Speaker 5: But Rogers doesn't have the same caliber weapons that Manning

589
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:46,320
Speaker 5: and Brady did under your team, so I don't think

590
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 5: we're gonna see like an eruption like we saw those guys.

591
00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: However, I think getting.

592
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,920
Speaker 5: To play with a true alpha like Garrett Wilson after

593
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 5: having a year off without Devontae Adams last year, will

594
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 5: help Rogers. But again, he just doesn't have that rushing

595
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:00,840
Speaker 5: upside that he used to earlier in his career, so

596
00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,400
Speaker 5: I just don't see overspending on him.

597
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,000
Speaker 1: I think this is properly where he should be.

598
00:30:05,040 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 5: He's gonna be a high end QB two and he's

599
00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 5: gonna make the Jets better as a real team. But

600
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 5: this doesn't really move the needle for me in terms

601
00:30:12,360 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 5: of fancy. But the Jets are gonna have a solid defense,

602
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 5: so he's probably not gonna.

603
00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 1: Have to throw that much.

604
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 5: So there's just a lot of reasons, like you said,

605
00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:22,360
Speaker 5: to this kind of nuts fade him, but just not

606
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:29,000
Speaker 5: overdraft taking like a Jared Offer Gino Smith that are

607
00:30:29,040 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 5: going after that. I'd rather have those guys, so it's

608
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:34,160
Speaker 5: an easy call to not draft them at fourteen right now.

609
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again, like I said, once you're in fourteen now,

610
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 2: you're in that streaming territory in redraft right too. And

611
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 2: that's where that early season schedule, I mean, silly, you're

612
00:30:43,400 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 2: in Dallas, Denver, Buffalo. That is a hard schedule and

613
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 2: you've got a good defense. These could be like seventeen

614
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 2: fourteen games, you know, so in hacke it, let's be real.

615
00:30:55,240 --> 00:30:58,360
Speaker 2: He didn't call plays when Rogers was going for his

616
00:30:58,440 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 2: MVP years a couple of years ago. Yes, he was

617
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 2: there in Green Bay, but he didn't call it plays.

618
00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 2: He was a disaster call of plays with Denver, he

619
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:07,400
Speaker 2: was a disaster. He wasn't very good anywhere he's been

620
00:31:07,440 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 2: calling a play. So like, this could be a situation

621
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 2: where just rogers brilliance has been, you know, kind of

622
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,440
Speaker 2: propped up Hacket and now that Rogers is not quite

623
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 2: as good, Hackett was never good. This might be kind

624
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 2: of like a non story with all you know, he's

625
00:31:20,320 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: reuniting with Hackett, and like, I just I just see

626
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,240
Speaker 2: like a like I don't really seem much to like

627
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 2: in terms of investing in Rogers. Let's we'll talk about

628
00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:30,000
Speaker 2: their running back.

629
00:31:30,040 --> 00:31:30,760
Speaker 4: Let's let's let's go.

630
00:31:30,840 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 2: Let's keep on the passing game here, because you mentioned

631
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson, he's wide receiver eleven. I think that's fair

632
00:31:38,360 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 2: because he's just so good and you know, we always

633
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,200
Speaker 2: expect wide receivers these days because they get so much

634
00:31:45,240 --> 00:31:48,320
Speaker 2: work in year one to have their breakout more often

635
00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 2: times than not in year two rather than year three,

636
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,160
Speaker 2: which it used to be. Uh. And you know, Rogers

637
00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 2: about over a half yard attempt more than a Jet quarterback.

638
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 4: Touchdown rate doubled two point.

639
00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: Four for Jets quarterbacks last year percent four point eight

640
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 2: percent for Rodgers last year in his career, you know,

641
00:32:03,400 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 2: is six point two and seven point seven yards per

642
00:32:06,080 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: attempt at six point you know touchdown, right, So there

643
00:32:08,920 --> 00:32:11,720
Speaker 2: is some upside there, but that I'd rather invest in

644
00:32:11,720 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 2: Garrett Wilson. You know, if I'm going to take you know,

645
00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 2: a Jet pass passing game player in the top twelve,

646
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: how about you Yeah.

647
00:32:18,960 --> 00:32:19,600
Speaker 1: Absolutely.

648
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 5: And you know, Wilson was able to finish as the

649
00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 5: wide receiver nineteen and establish himself as one of the

650
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 5: better young wide receivers last year despite the Jets just

651
00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 5: disaster at quarterback last season. So I think this is

652
00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,000
Speaker 5: where having Aaron Rodgers is really going to make a difference.

653
00:32:35,000 --> 00:32:36,520
Speaker 5: You know, he's gonna have a future Hall of Famer

654
00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 5: throwing the ball. I think that's going to take his

655
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 5: game to the next level. So, you know, Rogers typically

656
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 5: does spend like that, like to spend a lot of

657
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,440
Speaker 5: time building chemistry with you know, his top pass catchers.

658
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 5: That's why they brought in Lazard, That's why they're brought

659
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 5: in Rental Cobb. But I think he'll hit the ground

660
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 5: running with Wilson and he's he's in my top ten.

661
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 5: I'm a little bit higher than his ADP right now.

662
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:58,280
Speaker 1: I think this is where.

663
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 5: Rogers will certainly make an impact and unlocking Wilson's upside.

664
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 5: So I think Wilson will certainly be a top ten

665
00:33:04,600 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 5: wide out this year.

666
00:33:05,680 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 4: Yeah.

667
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 2: And if you if you consider Watson Rogers wide receiver

668
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 2: one last year rather than Wizard and you average out,

669
00:33:14,160 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 2: you know, the last five years, watch Rogers is top

670
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: receiver twenty eight percent targets per route. Wilson was twenty

671
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,280
Speaker 2: three percent last year. And just you know, even without

672
00:33:25,560 --> 00:33:28,760
Speaker 2: changing the quarterback, you usually expect the jump just year

673
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 2: one year or two. So you know, the lowest Rogers

674
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 2: ever had was twenty four percent, which was Christian Watson

675
00:33:34,560 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 2: last year at for a wide receiver one. And over

676
00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: the last five years, the lowest Rogers ever had was

677
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,280
Speaker 2: two point one yards per route and the highest was

678
00:33:42,320 --> 00:33:44,840
Speaker 2: three yards per route for his wide receiver one. Wilson

679
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: was at a buck eighty five, so room to grow

680
00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 2: in both even if Rogers, you know, plays at his

681
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two level, which I have a sneaking suspicion

682
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 2: he may, But I know you like Aaron Alan Lazard.

683
00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 2: You liked him last year as well. That was a

684
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 2: great call. He is the wide receiver fifty five. He

685
00:34:09,320 --> 00:34:11,960
Speaker 2: got signed for four years forty four mel By. They

686
00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 2: got twenty two million guaranteed, which you know that is

687
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:21,479
Speaker 2: a lot more guaranteed than Nicole Hardman who got about

688
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:24,359
Speaker 2: four mil guaranteed and Randall.

689
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 4: Cow who just got two hundred and fifty k guaranteed.

690
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 2: Corey Davis is also they were an eleven mil cap hit,

691
00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:31,520
Speaker 2: but you know they could cut him for I think

692
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 2: they're just like under a million in dead caps. So

693
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: they definitely paid for Alan Wizard, you know, for Rogers.

694
00:34:40,200 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 2: So what do you see for his outlook this season?

695
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:43,800
Speaker 1: Yeah?

696
00:34:43,800 --> 00:34:46,359
Speaker 5: So you know, like I mentioned on our previous pod,

697
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:49,400
Speaker 5: I do like Lizard in this range. You know, I

698
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 5: think he's definitely underrated at you know, the wide receiver

699
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 5: fifty five range. He's not an elite talent or flashy,

700
00:34:55,800 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 5: So I get it's not a sexy pick, but the

701
00:34:58,239 --> 00:35:00,720
Speaker 5: Jets brought him in for a reason because he already

702
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 5: has a ton of chemistry with Aaron Rodgers, and.

703
00:35:04,200 --> 00:35:06,120
Speaker 1: I think that's why they're gonna hit the ground running.

704
00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:10,040
Speaker 5: And he just has a ton of upside in this offense,

705
00:35:10,080 --> 00:35:13,120
Speaker 5: so he could easily put up wide receiver three numbers

706
00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:15,440
Speaker 5: and pay off his adp here. And just when you

707
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 5: look at the other receivers going in this range, you

708
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:23,040
Speaker 5: get Adam thielenz A Jones, kJ Osborne, Tyler Boyd, guys

709
00:35:23,080 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 5: that I don't really see a path to this much upside,

710
00:35:25,960 --> 00:35:27,760
Speaker 5: and they don't even have it as high of a floor.

711
00:35:28,120 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 5: So I think he just sticks out like a sore

712
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:31,879
Speaker 5: thumb in this range. So that's why I've been getting

713
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,200
Speaker 5: a ton of wizard in this range.

714
00:35:34,239 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, even though he kind of kind of.

715
00:35:37,200 --> 00:35:39,520
Speaker 5: Disappointing for me last year, I had higher expectations, but

716
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:40,439
Speaker 5: he's still panned out.

717
00:35:40,880 --> 00:35:42,319
Speaker 1: Same thing going on this year. I think just the

718
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:43,520
Speaker 1: market's way too low on him.

719
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:47,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm more kind of right on the

720
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:49,479
Speaker 2: market because again, there's just one of these situations where

721
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: I do see your point about the upside, but I

722
00:35:52,239 --> 00:35:54,400
Speaker 2: do see some downside just because a little bit of

723
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:59,120
Speaker 2: uncertainty with they're saying Corey Davis is going to be

724
00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,279
Speaker 2: on the team. Initially thought he was probably going to

725
00:36:01,280 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 2: get cut or traded because of that big cap hit.

726
00:36:04,800 --> 00:36:09,879
Speaker 2: But you know he's there, and Micole Hardman's there, and

727
00:36:10,280 --> 00:36:12,799
Speaker 2: you know they're talking about expanding his route tree this year.

728
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 2: That was part of, you know, the promise they made

729
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:18,920
Speaker 2: to him when they're signing him. So you know, I

730
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:21,239
Speaker 2: just wonder, you know, Lazard at a career high ninety

731
00:36:21,280 --> 00:36:26,440
Speaker 2: two routes route participation per game. I just wonder, you know,

732
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:29,439
Speaker 2: we've seen on Green Bay the last few years, whether

733
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 2: it's been last year or with the with the Rogers

734
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 2: Hackett pairing, you know, their wide receiver two has been

735
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:37,360
Speaker 2: more in that like seventy five to eighty five range,

736
00:36:37,880 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 2: And I just wonder if you know, we might see

737
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:42,880
Speaker 2: a tiny bit of a decrease because if you got Davis,

738
00:36:43,000 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: if you're going to keep Davis on the team, and

739
00:36:45,640 --> 00:36:47,680
Speaker 2: you signed Hardman like Kyle, I could see being a

740
00:36:47,680 --> 00:36:50,440
Speaker 2: scratcher getting like you know, yeah and one or two

741
00:36:50,480 --> 00:36:53,920
Speaker 2: snap two snaps a game. But I think you're gonna

742
00:36:54,080 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 2: have to give Davis and Hardman at least some decent

743
00:36:57,400 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: playing time. You know, maybe not half the snap, but

744
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 2: Davis never played less than two thirds of the snap

745
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 2: when he's been healthy. So you know that there's just

746
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: a little bit of uncertainty there. I think as maybe

747
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,360
Speaker 2: as it clears up, I'll become you know, I'll go

748
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 2: closer to you. But right now I'm kind of I

749
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 2: see the upside, but I.

750
00:37:12,239 --> 00:37:14,120
Speaker 4: Will see the downside fair enough.

751
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,600
Speaker 2: Uh, here's the guy I like, though, Tyra Conklins tight

752
00:37:17,680 --> 00:37:21,319
Speaker 2: end twenty seven and c j Uzoma's over thirty. Now

753
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 2: they drafted zak Koontz, but you know he's a Day

754
00:37:24,960 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 2: three pick, probably a year away from from contributing. And

755
00:37:28,200 --> 00:37:31,759
Speaker 2: Concorde was a tight end twenty one, twenty two and

756
00:37:31,880 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 2: PPR and half PPR last year, and he was fourteenth

757
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 2: in receptions per game at three point four eighteenth and

758
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 2: yards per game at just under thirty three. But he

759
00:37:42,040 --> 00:37:44,759
Speaker 2: was twenty eighth, tied for twenty eighth and touchdowns per

760
00:37:44,760 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 2: game at you know, like point eight point eight. So

761
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,960
Speaker 2: if you you know, there is some upside there because

762
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,120
Speaker 2: obviously you expect Rogers to throw more touchdowns I see

763
00:37:56,160 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 2: like a twenty twenty Tony In year as the seal him.

764
00:38:00,840 --> 00:38:03,080
Speaker 2: He doesn't have to change anything about his usage really,

765
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 2: and you know he's about seventeen target percent targets per route.

766
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 2: Tight Ends don't tend to change drastically, you know, as

767
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:14,399
Speaker 2: much as like the wide receivers are going to change

768
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:16,680
Speaker 2: depending on you know, with Wilson takes a step forward.

769
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 2: So especially with Breese Hall a little bit iffy, uh,

770
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,839
Speaker 2: you know, to start the season in his past catching prowess,

771
00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:26,719
Speaker 2: I think top Concord could beat this tight end twenty

772
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: seven to EIGHTYP and has some upside to beat it

773
00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:31,120
Speaker 2: pretty well.

774
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:32,799
Speaker 4: But what do you think?

775
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:34,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, No, I love that call.

776
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 5: I was actually gonna mention the twenty twenty Robert Tenyan

777
00:38:37,719 --> 00:38:40,560
Speaker 5: year as well. I think that's a fair you know,

778
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:43,240
Speaker 5: path to his ceiling. But he was able to establish

779
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,960
Speaker 5: himself as the lead tight end over c J. Zomo

780
00:38:46,040 --> 00:38:47,920
Speaker 5: last season. You know, he was averaging right around with

781
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:51,399
Speaker 5: seventy five percent routes run per game. So that's that's

782
00:38:51,440 --> 00:38:53,439
Speaker 5: a ton of usage to and then you have Aaron

783
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,839
Speaker 5: Rodgers or quarterback. So I think, you know, he could

784
00:38:56,840 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 5: see a ton of targets, especially in the red zone

785
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:02,359
Speaker 5: to Yeah, like said, massivelute playoff and the tight end

786
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,080
Speaker 5: twenty seven range, Like, I much rather have him than

787
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,399
Speaker 5: a Hunter Henry or Noah Fan or guys like that.

788
00:39:08,520 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 5: So I think, yeah, he sticks out in that range

789
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 5: just based on his ceiling.

790
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, and obviously a small sample, but Tyra Conquin, six

791
00:39:15,560 --> 00:39:18,879
Speaker 2: of his eight career targets inside the ten have been touchdowns.

792
00:39:19,000 --> 00:39:22,160
Speaker 2: The Jets were twenty first in pass plays inside the

793
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:27,160
Speaker 2: ten last year, Rogers the Rogers Hacket pairing from twenty

794
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 2: nineteen to twenty one, second third excuse me, in inside

795
00:39:31,520 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 2: the ten passway second to touchdowns inside the ten. So

796
00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:38,120
Speaker 2: there is some upside even if Conklin is just kind

797
00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 2: of that, you know, a red zone specialist. So I

798
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 2: like him.

799
00:39:42,719 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 4: Reese Hall, you know, let's go to the running game.

800
00:39:45,040 --> 00:39:46,600
Speaker 4: I am a little bit iffy on him at.

801
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 2: RB thirteen just because of what we've heard, you know,

802
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 2: towards ACL week seven GM, Joe Douglas has said we

803
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:56,240
Speaker 2: got to protect them from himself. I think I mentioned

804
00:39:56,239 --> 00:39:58,520
Speaker 2: this on another pod, but over twenty percent of his

805
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:01,480
Speaker 2: yardage came on two touches last year, a sixty two

806
00:40:01,560 --> 00:40:06,480
Speaker 2: yard running a seventy nine yard catch, So uh, you

807
00:40:06,520 --> 00:40:08,799
Speaker 2: have that, and then the old line should be better

808
00:40:08,840 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 2: and healthier, but long way up to go because they

809
00:40:11,280 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 2: were dead last and adjusted line yards. So I just think,

810
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 2: I just think this is kind of a little bit

811
00:40:17,880 --> 00:40:22,360
Speaker 2: too presumptive here unless we get just you know, absolute

812
00:40:22,440 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 2: quarity that Brees Hall is going to be a full

813
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: go from week one on, because remember, you know he

814
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 2: could be. He could start the year, show he could cut,

815
00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,040
Speaker 2: Like running backs is still likely.

816
00:40:30,920 --> 00:40:32,400
Speaker 4: To get you're injured more than any other position.

817
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 2: So if you're losing games at the beginning, that doesn't

818
00:40:35,120 --> 00:40:37,680
Speaker 2: mean he's just play once he's healthy, Like he could

819
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:40,879
Speaker 2: easily get hurt again. So RB thirteen a little too

820
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 2: rich for me.

821
00:40:42,320 --> 00:40:45,279
Speaker 5: For Breeze, Yeah, he's tough right now because I think

822
00:40:45,320 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 5: he does have the talent to be a top five back.

823
00:40:47,560 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 5: He was by far my favorite running back in last

824
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 5: year's class. I said he was a blend of all

825
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:54,400
Speaker 5: the good qualities of Joe Mixon and Kareem Hunt, and

826
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,319
Speaker 5: I mean that. So we've seen him in limited time

827
00:40:57,440 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 5: just erupt. However, like you said, just his acl tear,

828
00:41:02,400 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 5: you know, we don't know if he's gonna be ready

829
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 5: to go week one. This this could turn into a

830
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,720
Speaker 5: twenty twenty one, say Quon Barkley, or a twenty twenty

831
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 5: two JK. Dobbins type of situation where we caution people

832
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 5: like he could be really limited the first few weeks

833
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,720
Speaker 5: and even then, you know, just not see a big workload,

834
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,839
Speaker 5: So we're just gonna have to monitor the news. So

835
00:41:21,920 --> 00:41:25,719
Speaker 5: I think that RB thirteen is fair just factoring that in.

836
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 5: But I think if if we get ultimate clarity, like

837
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 5: he's gonna be one hundred percent for week one, I

838
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,799
Speaker 5: would draft him inside the top eight for sure. But

839
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 5: if he's gonna miss a few games, then I would

840
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:36,359
Speaker 5: bump him down. So I think right now it's fair.

841
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,439
Speaker 5: But this is gonna be one of those ranks that's

842
00:41:38,480 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 5: moving around. And they did draft a pretty talented back

843
00:41:41,719 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 5: and Israel at Benacanada. That's a tongue twister, and they

844
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 5: sell Michael Carter, so they could easily just you know,

845
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 5: limit his workload in the first half of the season

846
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:50,840
Speaker 5: with those guys.

847
00:41:50,880 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 1: So it's definitely a concern. But I think undoubtedly.

848
00:41:53,640 --> 00:41:56,240
Speaker 5: He's you know, potentially a top five back in this league.

849
00:41:56,560 --> 00:41:58,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, and I love a Ben of Canada. You know,

850
00:41:58,880 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 2: fifth round or hand a pick, speed, twenty five or

851
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,440
Speaker 2: more carries, and over half his games last year, so

852
00:42:04,480 --> 00:42:08,160
Speaker 2: we can handle the load. Carter had a big sophomore swump,

853
00:42:08,880 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 2: so I'm a little concerned. You know, it wasn't just

854
00:42:11,560 --> 00:42:14,799
Speaker 2: the O line. You know, he also lost nearly a

855
00:42:14,880 --> 00:42:18,839
Speaker 2: yard after contact per carry. He lost five percent off

856
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,440
Speaker 2: his targets per route, which is a massive drop in

857
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:23,640
Speaker 2: two yards off his yards per catch.

858
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 4: Zonova Knight was near the bottom of the league.

859
00:42:27,440 --> 00:42:32,040
Speaker 2: In most metrics for running backs, you know, rush running

860
00:42:32,040 --> 00:42:34,840
Speaker 2: the ball, and had just three point five yards per carry.

861
00:42:34,960 --> 00:42:39,399
Speaker 2: No guaranteed money. He was an undrafted free agent last year,

862
00:42:39,520 --> 00:42:43,080
Speaker 2: so you know, if Hall is healthy Week one, I

863
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 2: don't even think Night makes the roster. But I think

864
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 2: Abana Canada is a is a low key dark horse,

865
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 2: just like we saw a Night kind of emerge after

866
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:54,280
Speaker 2: a while as the lead back. Like I think Abandon

867
00:42:54,320 --> 00:42:56,839
Speaker 2: Canada is a guy who I want to invest in.

868
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 2: I think he could end up having some games where

869
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:02,480
Speaker 2: he ends up starting if Reese Hall is is not

870
00:43:02,520 --> 00:43:06,399
Speaker 2: fully healthy. So yeah, that's kind of where I'm at.

871
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:11,280
Speaker 2: I know You're sleeper to recap. Your sleeper is Alan Wizard.

872
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,680
Speaker 2: I'm going with the ban of Kanada love him and

873
00:43:14,760 --> 00:43:19,480
Speaker 2: Tyra Conklin and then no one you're really market.

874
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 4: Off as a bust for me.

875
00:43:21,520 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 2: Reese Hall just you know, I think he's overvalued based

876
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 2: on what we know and don't know at this point.

877
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 2: And Zonova Knight RB eighty. I just think they're you know,

878
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:31,080
Speaker 2: I don't know how many again, how many people this

879
00:43:31,120 --> 00:43:33,640
Speaker 2: would affect, but I just think I don't think he

880
00:43:33,680 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 2: makes the roster if Hall is healthy, So you know,

881
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:40,400
Speaker 2: I think there are better ways you could invest to

882
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:42,760
Speaker 2: like a deep flyer, late round flyer.

883
00:43:43,160 --> 00:43:44,280
Speaker 4: All right, let's go to Miami.

884
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:45,920
Speaker 2: This will be a little quicker because you know, we

885
00:43:46,040 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 2: kind of know what to expect with them. We'll started

886
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,319
Speaker 2: the pass game again because I want to spend most

887
00:43:50,320 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 2: of the time talking about the run game.

888
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:53,240
Speaker 4: Two was a QB twelve.

889
00:43:53,920 --> 00:43:56,480
Speaker 2: He was somewhat inconsistent because he was QIB nine in

890
00:43:56,560 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 2: points per game, but you know, top four and four

891
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 2: of his thirteen games, and you know then thirteen to

892
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:11,200
Speaker 2: eighteenth in five and twenty second or worse in another three.

893
00:44:11,280 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 2: So you know, yeah, about over sixty percent of his games.

894
00:44:14,520 --> 00:44:19,080
Speaker 2: He was not a QB one any thoughts on Tua

895
00:44:19,160 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 2: here entering his fourth year in the league.

896
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:25,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, as long as he stays healthy, I

897
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,440
Speaker 5: love him. As long as he Tyry Kill and Jalen

898
00:44:27,480 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 5: Waddle stay healthy, I love him. But I am definitely

899
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,879
Speaker 5: concerned with just the concussions last year. If he gets

900
00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:36,879
Speaker 5: another one, you know, he contemplated retirement, so that's that's

901
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:40,080
Speaker 5: obviously red flag and a concern for his health. But

902
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 5: while he's healthy, he's certainly a top twelve quarterback.

903
00:44:44,239 --> 00:44:44,480
Speaker 4: You know.

904
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:46,920
Speaker 5: The other thing is they seem to have given up

905
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 5: on tight end being a factor in this offense by

906
00:44:49,440 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 5: letting Mike is Sicky go. So this is a very

907
00:44:51,680 --> 00:44:55,440
Speaker 5: top heavy offense. It runs through tyryk Kill and Jalen Waddle.

908
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:58,399
Speaker 5: But I think adding Devon a chain who will talk

909
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 5: about could be a game change. He's he's a good

910
00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:02,880
Speaker 5: pass catching back, so I think that could add an

911
00:45:02,880 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 5: element to this offense. But I think Tua has a

912
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 5: ton of upside, but unfortunately there's just so much downside

913
00:45:08,680 --> 00:45:11,440
Speaker 5: given the potential, you know, the concussion history. So I'm

914
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:14,239
Speaker 5: probably staying away as current ADP, but I do like

915
00:45:14,280 --> 00:45:16,120
Speaker 5: investing in its offense because of them.

916
00:45:16,640 --> 00:45:18,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, and you know, Toby twelve.

917
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:18,799
Speaker 4: I think it's fair.

918
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:20,839
Speaker 2: I also worry. I think the Dolphins defense is going

919
00:45:20,880 --> 00:45:24,120
Speaker 2: to be better this year. So that's also kind of

920
00:45:24,360 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 2: kind of the same things as Rogers, Like q QB

921
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,680
Speaker 2: is just not as as sexy as it has been

922
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:31,640
Speaker 2: in some years past, where we always could find like

923
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: a Justin Fields or Jalen Hurtz or somebody like that.

924
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:37,000
Speaker 4: It just seems like we're kind of stuck with these

925
00:45:37,280 --> 00:45:38,759
Speaker 4: like past pocket.

926
00:45:38,560 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 2: Quarterbacks now, like we're getting really excited about Jared Goff here,

927
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:43,879
Speaker 2: which I mean, I think it's warranted, but also yeah,

928
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:47,239
Speaker 2: kind of worries me. Uh yeah, Tyreek is wide receiver three,

929
00:45:47,239 --> 00:45:51,120
Speaker 2: Watt's wide receiver ten. You know, nothing, not much to

930
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:53,440
Speaker 2: say here except I think Tyreek was a little bit

931
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,800
Speaker 2: more consistent overall. Uh and he actually had a career

932
00:45:56,880 --> 00:45:59,799
Speaker 2: high in targets per route at thirty one point three

933
00:45:59,840 --> 00:46:02,880
Speaker 2: per which was always good to see, you know, going

934
00:46:02,960 --> 00:46:07,319
Speaker 2: from you know, the long time Chiefs offense. Waddle was

935
00:46:07,960 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 2: at eighty five yards per game with Tua, but only

936
00:46:13,719 --> 00:46:18,000
Speaker 2: sixty two yards per game without Tua. And he scored

937
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:19,800
Speaker 2: in about two thirds of his game with Tua and

938
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,520
Speaker 2: didn't score in the four without obviously small sample here,

939
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: but I think, you know, if there was another injury

940
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 2: to to a Wado would have a little bit lower

941
00:46:27,680 --> 00:46:30,680
Speaker 2: of a floor. But yeah, like I could see maybe

942
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:33,239
Speaker 2: taking him below Garrett Wilson because Garrett Wilson has that

943
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:37,279
Speaker 2: thirty percent target upside, you know. But that's about it.

944
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:39,240
Speaker 2: I still think he's worthy of, you know, at top

945
00:46:39,520 --> 00:46:43,160
Speaker 2: top eleven, twelve, thirteen to you know, somewhere in that range.

946
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,560
Speaker 2: He certainly he proved that he's certainly worthy, especially with

947
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:47,799
Speaker 2: no tight end and no real even wide receiver three.

948
00:46:47,800 --> 00:46:49,720
Speaker 2: I mean, he got burios there, he got chosen Anderson,

949
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 2: but nothing much to speak of smith smythe blocked and

950
00:46:52,680 --> 00:46:56,600
Speaker 2: over fifty percent of his snaps last year. So yeah,

951
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,359
Speaker 2: I think we should just talk about these running backs

952
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:03,320
Speaker 2: because you know, h Chane RB forty two, So his

953
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 2: price is getting up there.

954
00:47:04,239 --> 00:47:06,160
Speaker 4: People are caught onto him, a.

955
00:47:06,280 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 2: Third round pick out of Texas four point three speed,

956
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 2: just one hundred and eighty eight pounds. But you know,

957
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:17,040
Speaker 2: was able to carry the ball twenty plus times in

958
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 2: a few games last year, and he actually had a

959
00:47:18,719 --> 00:47:21,040
Speaker 2: high thirty eight carry so it's not as if he

960
00:47:21,040 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 2: couldn't carry the load. Not a great pass blocker, but

961
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,719
Speaker 2: Miami's running backs don't pass block much, just eleven percent

962
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,400
Speaker 2: of the time last year, their tight ends twenty percent

963
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 2: and probably going up because Smith's, as I mentioned, blocked

964
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: over half his snaps. Now, you know, h at forty two,

965
00:47:38,160 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 2: most are at forty nine, Wilson at fifty one. Those

966
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:46,000
Speaker 2: two guys got about two mil guaranteed a little over

967
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:49,799
Speaker 2: two mil for Wilson, two mil for Mostar. But I

968
00:47:49,800 --> 00:47:52,759
Speaker 2: think we both like Chang, which for me means we

969
00:47:52,840 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 2: have to.

970
00:47:53,120 --> 00:47:54,640
Speaker 4: Be out on Moster and Wilson.

971
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 2: And then there's also the Dalvin Cook factor because it

972
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 2: was report I think it was today actually that Miami

973
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:07,040
Speaker 2: pursued DeAndre Swift in a trade. So you know, that's

974
00:48:07,080 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 2: the only reason I think we can't go all in

975
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:12,640
Speaker 2: on a change, because they're obviously the top top contender

976
00:48:12,680 --> 00:48:16,239
Speaker 2: for Cook, and they're obviously we're going to upgrade that backfield.

977
00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: But I think what this means for me is I'm

978
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: all the way out on Moster and Wilson. Most are

979
00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:23,360
Speaker 2: thirty one, by the way, But but what do you

980
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:24,120
Speaker 2: think it is Backford?

981
00:48:24,360 --> 00:48:28,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, so again Dalvin Cook potentially signing with the Dolphins

982
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:31,800
Speaker 5: or other teams looming over sort of these like fringe

983
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,719
Speaker 5: running backs, So a change, there's some concern there, but

984
00:48:34,760 --> 00:48:37,919
Speaker 5: I still like the upside he provides at RB forty

985
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:42,000
Speaker 5: two range, and this this backfield is very tricky to project.

986
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 1: That could be a full three way committee, but I

987
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,240
Speaker 1: think a change his value will only go up.

988
00:48:47,320 --> 00:48:50,280
Speaker 5: As the season continued goes on, and most are probably

989
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:54,160
Speaker 5: go down. But I love a change just in this scheme.

990
00:48:54,239 --> 00:48:58,120
Speaker 5: He's very fast, he fits this scheme very well. Plus

991
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,080
Speaker 5: he's he's a pretty good pass catching back. And like

992
00:49:01,120 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 5: I said, the Dolphins seem to be just eliminating the

993
00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 5: tight end position completely. You know, they have Durham's smikee there,

994
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,600
Speaker 5: so I think, you know, a Chang could be the

995
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:13,000
Speaker 5: number three target in this offense. He has the potential

996
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 5: to and I kind of pegged him as being a

997
00:49:15,280 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 5: potential dollar store Austin Eckler coming out of the draft.

998
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 5: So he just has a ton of upside in this offense.

999
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 5: And he probably doesn't need that many touches to post

1000
00:49:24,640 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 5: you know, RB two type numbers, So I.

1001
00:49:26,920 --> 00:49:29,880
Speaker 1: Like getting his upside here. Again, when you talk about.

1002
00:49:29,760 --> 00:49:32,960
Speaker 5: Raheem Mozert, he's thirty one years old. He's probably gonna

1003
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:35,160
Speaker 5: have the most value early in the season. I would

1004
00:49:35,200 --> 00:49:37,480
Speaker 5: not be shocked if he's like the Week one starter.

1005
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 5: But then as the season goes, concede some snaps or

1006
00:49:40,560 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 5: potentially get injured, and we'll see a chain be more

1007
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:47,200
Speaker 5: of the workhorse back. And then Jeff Wilson's just there.

1008
00:49:47,239 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 5: You know, he's probably the goal line back. But even

1009
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 5: though he's the cheapest back in this backfield, I don't

1010
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 5: think he's worth investing either. I think this is just

1011
00:49:55,040 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 5: the murky backfield. And I'm actually going with the more

1012
00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 5: expensive guy here and a change just because I think

1013
00:49:59,600 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 5: he does carry the highest highest ceiling in this backfield.

1014
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, he's he's he's a guy. I'm going

1015
00:50:05,640 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 2: with two uh for a sleeper for the Dolphins, but

1016
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:12,200
Speaker 2: with the caveat that, I would wait till Dalvin Cook

1017
00:50:13,480 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 2: either or he's the situation is settled because uh RB

1018
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 2: forty two in a you know, you already got three

1019
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 2: guys in this backfield. Obviously you probably you know, get

1020
00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:27,560
Speaker 2: rid of one of Mostard Wilson because Ahan is the rookie.

1021
00:50:27,600 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 2: But still too much uncertainty at RB forty two for me,

1022
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:34,200
Speaker 2: anyway until we could be sure that that cook is

1023
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 2: not getting there. But I think it's a good sign

1024
00:50:36,520 --> 00:50:38,359
Speaker 2: that they try to sign Swift because Hane and Swift

1025
00:50:38,400 --> 00:50:41,359
Speaker 2: I think overlap the most of a skill set.

1026
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:42,920
Speaker 1: I would be worried about cream Hunt too.

1027
00:50:43,000 --> 00:50:46,200
Speaker 5: He's yeah, exactly, it's just a few free agents at

1028
00:50:46,239 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 5: each position that worry me. So I like Kaream Hunt

1029
00:50:50,239 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 5: could land here. But either way, just this time of

1030
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,560
Speaker 5: the year, you have to be aware of that. I'm

1031
00:50:54,600 --> 00:50:57,160
Speaker 5: not really altered my rankings a ton dates on that,

1032
00:50:57,200 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 5: but you just have to be aware of it.

1033
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, And like for me, I know, you don't have

1034
00:51:01,840 --> 00:51:04,200
Speaker 2: like a flat out bust for me. I think Moster

1035
00:51:04,320 --> 00:51:06,200
Speaker 2: and Wilson are going to be huge bus you know,

1036
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:09,399
Speaker 2: already part of a three way committee. Both of them

1037
00:51:09,440 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 2: passed you know, the kind of peak year of a

1038
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 2: running back, which is twenty six twenty seven, you know. So,

1039
00:51:16,120 --> 00:51:19,080
Speaker 2: and the fact that they've been you know, known to

1040
00:51:19,360 --> 00:51:21,960
Speaker 2: go after Swift, known to be the top destination of

1041
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 2: a cook, they obviously want to upgrade on these two guys,

1042
00:51:24,680 --> 00:51:27,040
Speaker 2: uh and probably aren't looking at them you know beyond

1043
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:30,640
Speaker 2: you know, you know, far into the future. So uh, yeah,

1044
00:51:30,840 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 2: I'm out on them. I think those guys will be bussed.

1045
00:51:33,400 --> 00:51:37,759
Speaker 2: Let's finish it up with the New England Patriots. We have,

1046
00:51:37,880 --> 00:51:41,640
Speaker 2: you know, Bill O'Brien replacing Matt Patricia, and you know,

1047
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 2: I think O'Brien could be a little bit more pass

1048
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:49,880
Speaker 2: happy here. Fifty nine percent career called pass rate, sixty

1049
00:51:49,920 --> 00:51:52,399
Speaker 2: two percent the last three years, and when I say

1050
00:51:52,440 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 2: last three, I mean twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen and then

1051
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:57,880
Speaker 2: the four weeks of twenty twenty before he got fired.

1052
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 2: So you know, he's a little more Pats heavy than

1053
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:03,560
Speaker 2: the Patriots have been under Mac Jones. With Mac Jones

1054
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:06,880
Speaker 2: over the last two years, about fifty seven percent called passes.

1055
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:09,759
Speaker 2: O'Brien also uses the tight end a little bit more

1056
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 2: so that that could have some you know, some interesting

1057
00:52:13,640 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: kind of impact, and we'll talk about that. But I

1058
00:52:16,400 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: think my question for you at Mac Jones, he's a

1059
00:52:18,040 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 2: QB twenty nine. You know, Kenny Kenny, Kenny rebound to

1060
00:52:21,560 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 2: that twenty twenty one rookie year level when he was

1061
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 2: at you know, seven point three yards per attempt, four

1062
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,120
Speaker 2: point two percent touchdown rate as opposed to last year

1063
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,080
Speaker 2: when he get to six point eight yards at attempt

1064
00:52:31,520 --> 00:52:33,840
Speaker 2: and a touchdown rate of just three point two. Because

1065
00:52:34,040 --> 00:52:36,080
Speaker 2: you know, I think that rookie year is just like

1066
00:52:36,120 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 2: a baseline for him even being playable, and you'd actually

1067
00:52:39,320 --> 00:52:42,399
Speaker 2: hope that he even improved upon that. So how are

1068
00:52:42,400 --> 00:52:45,440
Speaker 2: you kind of projecting Matt Jones and weighing, you know,

1069
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two versus twenty twenty one.

1070
00:52:48,120 --> 00:52:50,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, so I think he could rebound.

1071
00:52:50,040 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 5: You know, I think having a traditional offensive corner like

1072
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:57,040
Speaker 5: Bill O'Brien will certainly help. It'll be an upgrade over

1073
00:52:57,120 --> 00:53:00,759
Speaker 5: last year's disaster with Matt Patrician, Joe Judge. We're trying

1074
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,160
Speaker 5: to figure it out on the fly, But I want

1075
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:07,479
Speaker 5: nothing to do with the mac Jones, even at TB

1076
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:11,160
Speaker 5: twenty nine. I mean, he's a low ceiling, low floor option,

1077
00:53:11,280 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 5: which is a terrible combination. He offers zero rushing upside

1078
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,600
Speaker 5: and he doesn't throw enough to really be a high

1079
00:53:18,719 --> 00:53:23,000
Speaker 5: end GB two. Plus he doesn't really have great job security.

1080
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 5: He already got benched last year for Bailey z Appy.

1081
00:53:25,560 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 5: Who's to say that couldn't happen again at some point

1082
00:53:27,760 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 5: this year. So just I want nothing to do with

1083
00:53:30,520 --> 00:53:33,399
Speaker 5: him and redraft him, especially nothing to do with him

1084
00:53:33,400 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 5: in Best Ball, So I'm completely on Mac Jones at

1085
00:53:36,080 --> 00:53:36,600
Speaker 5: this price.

1086
00:53:37,320 --> 00:53:40,799
Speaker 2: I wants talk about the receivers, Juju's wires. We were

1087
00:53:40,880 --> 00:53:44,719
Speaker 2: forty five and then you go forty more slots before

1088
00:53:44,760 --> 00:53:47,800
Speaker 2: you get another Patchwyer Seriard. That's Taekwon Thornton at eighty five,

1089
00:53:48,840 --> 00:53:53,480
Speaker 2: Kaishawn Butte the rookie is ninety nine, and Devonte Parker

1090
00:53:53,520 --> 00:53:56,239
Speaker 2: at one o two. Kendrick Bourne's not even being drafted

1091
00:53:56,920 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 2: at least in this ADP, but seems somewhat crowded. Uh.

1092
00:54:01,880 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 2: I like Juju a little bit. You like Parker. So

1093
00:54:06,800 --> 00:54:09,319
Speaker 2: since Parker, I think is the more interesting ones, let's

1094
00:54:09,320 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 2: start with him and then and then I'll tell you

1095
00:54:11,920 --> 00:54:12,759
Speaker 2: why I like.

1096
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:15,359
Speaker 5: Yug Well, like is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.

1097
00:54:15,600 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 5: I would say at his ADP, you know you can

1098
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 5: get Parker outside of the top one hundred, makes him

1099
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 5: enticing because he could still be eighty percent or more

1100
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:29,239
Speaker 5: routes run per game kind of guy. And he's he's

1101
00:54:29,239 --> 00:54:31,359
Speaker 5: decent in Bestball. You know he's gonna have a few

1102
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,279
Speaker 5: big games. So I think if if you can get

1103
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:36,520
Speaker 5: Parker outside of the top one hundred, he makes sense.

1104
00:54:36,960 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 5: But I do I kind of want to hear what

1105
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 5: you have to say about Juju, but I'm a little

1106
00:54:40,600 --> 00:54:42,719
Speaker 5: bit higher on him. I think he does have a

1107
00:54:42,719 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 5: pretty high floor, especially since you know he might be

1108
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:48,600
Speaker 5: taking over the full Jacoby Myers role. But I'm interested

1109
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:50,440
Speaker 5: to hear what you think because I'm a little bit

1110
00:54:50,520 --> 00:54:51,200
Speaker 5: higher on him as well.

1111
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:54,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, I didn't expect to be high on Juju, but

1112
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:56,200
Speaker 2: I think wig receiver forty five is a bit too

1113
00:54:56,280 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 2: low Juju. First of all, he's still only twenty seven.

1114
00:55:00,000 --> 00:55:05,359
Speaker 2: He got sixteen million dollars guaranteed. Now that's a significant

1115
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:10,160
Speaker 2: investment for the Patriots, and I do think that the

1116
00:55:10,239 --> 00:55:12,320
Speaker 2: Meyers role is what he's going to play, and that

1117
00:55:12,360 --> 00:55:15,160
Speaker 2: would we to an uptick and slot usage. Meyers had

1118
00:55:15,239 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 2: seventy percent, Juju just forty three percent last year. I

1119
00:55:17,840 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 2: remember Juju was still a start of a wide receiver

1120
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 2: three last year. A little bit up and down, but overall,

1121
00:55:23,360 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 2: you know, still close to a thousand yards receiving. The

1122
00:55:26,520 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 2: touchdowns weren't there. They never were for Meyers either, so

1123
00:55:29,960 --> 00:55:32,680
Speaker 2: that's kind of a wash. But you look at Myers,

1124
00:55:32,920 --> 00:55:37,200
Speaker 2: you know, targets per route twenty twenty three percent two

1125
00:55:37,280 --> 00:55:40,239
Speaker 2: years ago and twenty two percent last year, Juju's been

1126
00:55:40,280 --> 00:55:44,000
Speaker 2: around eighteen percent. And in this offense, I mean, Parker

1127
00:55:44,080 --> 00:55:46,359
Speaker 2: is kind of an X receiver guy that's not really

1128
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:49,040
Speaker 2: going to move around much, so you can't expect him necessarily,

1129
00:55:49,160 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 2: especially at the other side of thirty, to get you know, like.

1130
00:55:51,719 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 4: Twenties twenty something.

1131
00:55:53,840 --> 00:55:56,040
Speaker 2: Taekwon Thornton could take a year two week, but he's cut,

1132
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 2: you know, he was. He's another guy that was. You know,

1133
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:01,960
Speaker 2: he's running more of those lower percent centered routes and

1134
00:56:02,000 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 2: then you know the tight ends. You know, Hunter Henry

1135
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 2: took a bit of a step back. Gasiki.

1136
00:56:07,400 --> 00:56:08,200
Speaker 4: I think is you.

1137
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,239
Speaker 2: Know, you only got one little over a one mil guaranteed,

1138
00:56:11,360 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 2: so I think she'll probably have a bigger role than Juju.

1139
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: But I still think Smith Schuster is going to be

1140
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 2: ticketed for this this this Jacoby Myers role, and that

1141
00:56:23,520 --> 00:56:27,200
Speaker 2: role has been you know, a wide receiver anywhere from

1142
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:31,000
Speaker 2: you know, a wide receiver forty two to wide receiver

1143
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:35,280
Speaker 2: twenty seven, and Smith Schuster has been taking being taken

1144
00:56:35,560 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 2: below kind of the floor ceiling for Meyers. So even

1145
00:56:39,160 --> 00:56:41,520
Speaker 2: if you factor in a little bit of okay, maybe

1146
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 2: Myers is the better player at this stage, I still

1147
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:48,320
Speaker 2: think you have a pretty decent forour especially in PPR

1148
00:56:48,800 --> 00:56:52,120
Speaker 2: for Juju, because you know, we don't know exactly where

1149
00:56:52,160 --> 00:56:54,520
Speaker 2: the touchdowns are going to come from. Not expecting a

1150
00:56:54,520 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 2: massive jump for mac Jones, but I do like especially

1151
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 2: also got to consider the matchups in this division, right,

1152
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: you have you know to build have Tradevius White on

1153
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:08,000
Speaker 2: the outside, the Jets have Sauce on the outside, the

1154
00:57:08,120 --> 00:57:11,799
Speaker 2: Dolphins of Howard and Ramsey on outside. So like, I

1155
00:57:11,840 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 2: think the slot receiver is going to be important, even

1156
00:57:13,640 --> 00:57:15,479
Speaker 2: if it's just in two eye sets and he's lined

1157
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,400
Speaker 2: up you know, in the slot in the in the

1158
00:57:17,440 --> 00:57:21,680
Speaker 2: twin set. So yeah, I like me some Juju at

1159
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 2: forty five. I think anything outside the top forty is

1160
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:27,560
Speaker 2: fair game for Smith Schuster. You should probably be in

1161
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:28,400
Speaker 2: the high thirties.

1162
00:57:29,400 --> 00:57:30,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree with that.

1163
00:57:30,560 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 5: And he finishes the wide receiver thirty seven last year

1164
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,640
Speaker 5: despite being the number one wide receiver on the Chiefs.

1165
00:57:35,680 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 5: But we have to remember he was the number two

1166
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:42,080
Speaker 5: target behind Travis Kelcey. But I see a clear path

1167
00:57:42,160 --> 00:57:44,959
Speaker 5: to being the top target on the Patriots. So that's

1168
00:57:45,000 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 5: that's huge for his floor. And I think you had

1169
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 5: mentioned it towards the end of last season. You know,

1170
00:57:49,640 --> 00:57:52,120
Speaker 5: for some reason, Juju is fading towards the end of

1171
00:57:52,120 --> 00:57:54,440
Speaker 5: the season. I don't know if you're able to pinpoint why.

1172
00:57:54,920 --> 00:57:57,240
Speaker 5: But he's only twenty six years old, so it's not

1173
00:57:57,320 --> 00:58:00,840
Speaker 5: age rea. He's still in his prime, so I still.

1174
00:58:00,600 --> 00:58:01,640
Speaker 1: Think you can bounce back.

1175
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 5: I think he'll be the number one target in this offense.

1176
00:58:04,080 --> 00:58:06,320
Speaker 5: So I think in this range, the forty wide receiver

1177
00:58:06,360 --> 00:58:08,640
Speaker 5: forty five range, it sort of depends what you're going for.

1178
00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 5: If you're going for upside, I'd rather take a flyer

1179
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 5: on the rookies, you know, Jordan Addison, Quintin Johnson are

1180
00:58:14,600 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 5: in this range, or just go for a super high

1181
00:58:17,480 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 5: floor like Juju Smith in this range. I think those

1182
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 5: three receivers inside, you know, the wide receiver forty to

1183
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:24,960
Speaker 5: the wide receiver fifty will be the three receivers I'm

1184
00:58:25,000 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 5: targeting the most in this range. So if you're going

1185
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 5: for a high floor, absolutely target.

1186
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:29,840
Speaker 1: Did you here?

1187
00:58:30,200 --> 00:58:33,600
Speaker 2: Yeah? And I actually think, you know, the difference between

1188
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 2: a high floor and a high ceiling in this range

1189
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:38,560
Speaker 2: is actually less than you know one might think, because

1190
00:58:38,680 --> 00:58:40,880
Speaker 2: let's remember, there are just a ton of good receivers

1191
00:58:41,000 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: like Tarker mclaurran is like the wide receiver twenty one

1192
00:58:43,640 --> 00:58:45,400
Speaker 2: or something like that. You know, like there's there's always

1193
00:58:45,440 --> 00:58:47,520
Speaker 2: so many receivers that aren't going to finish top twenty four.

1194
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 2: Myers was the wide receiver twenty eight and twenty seven

1195
00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:54,280
Speaker 2: in PPR and half last year, So yeah, that's that's

1196
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 2: pretty good upside. And Juju has had a top ten

1197
00:58:57,800 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 2: season in his past, so yeah, I like Juju. Let's

1198
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:03,240
Speaker 2: talk about the tight ends.

1199
00:59:03,320 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 4: Gasiki is twenty, Henry's twenty nine.

1200
00:59:06,360 --> 00:59:08,800
Speaker 2: Gasiki had got a one year, four and a half

1201
00:59:08,880 --> 00:59:11,520
Speaker 2: million hour deal, little over one male guaranteed though, but

1202
00:59:12,200 --> 00:59:16,160
Speaker 2: another four and a half in incentives fifty five percent

1203
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:18,120
Speaker 2: of the routes last year. Still finishes a tight end

1204
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:22,200
Speaker 2: thirty four. What do you think about his role this

1205
00:59:22,320 --> 00:59:24,680
Speaker 2: year with Hunter Henry still on the squad?

1206
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:28,360
Speaker 5: I absolutely hate this landing spot. I you know, I

1207
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:30,560
Speaker 5: love Mikekasik. I still think he's one of the better

1208
00:59:30,880 --> 00:59:34,280
Speaker 5: pass catching tight ends in the league. You know, if

1209
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:36,960
Speaker 5: he were to land on the Bengals, Lions, or Bills,

1210
00:59:37,000 --> 00:59:39,360
Speaker 5: I'd be all over him. But this is a terrible

1211
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:42,080
Speaker 5: ending spot. They still have Hunter Henry. I don't know

1212
00:59:42,120 --> 00:59:44,000
Speaker 5: if they're going to know how to use them. Necessarily,

1213
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 5: we were already saying, you know, Juju is going to

1214
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 5: be the slot receiver, so I don't know where Gseki's

1215
00:59:48,560 --> 00:59:50,240
Speaker 5: going to line up. So I think this is a

1216
00:59:50,320 --> 00:59:53,160
Speaker 5: terrible ending spot. He's my tight end twenty, but he

1217
00:59:53,320 --> 00:59:55,760
Speaker 5: had the potential to be a top twenty five tight end,

1218
00:59:56,560 --> 00:59:58,960
Speaker 5: so I still think he's the tight end to target

1219
00:59:59,000 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 5: from this offense. I think Hunter Henry is being overdrafted

1220
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:05,920
Speaker 5: even at tight end thirty. But either way, I'm just

1221
01:00:05,920 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 5: fading both tight ends in this offense.

1222
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:10,400
Speaker 2: I actually disagree. I think I think Henry is did

1223
01:00:10,440 --> 01:00:15,800
Speaker 2: better value. I think, really yeah, because listen later one minute. Well,

1224
01:00:15,840 --> 01:00:18,360
Speaker 2: first of all, Gasiki got one million dollars guaranteed, so

1225
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 2: like it's Juja's John Smith played about JOHNA.

1226
01:00:21,120 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 4: Smith got thirty one mil guaranteed a couple of years ago.

1227
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,360
Speaker 2: He played he partinued to play about a quarter of

1228
01:00:25,400 --> 01:00:28,080
Speaker 2: the routes, the quarter of the snaps uh in the

1229
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: past game over the you know, once he got that

1230
01:00:30,400 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 2: thirty one mile guaranteed, I think Henry's role actually stays

1231
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:39,480
Speaker 2: pretty similar, you know, sixty seventy routes. I think Kasiki,

1232
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:41,920
Speaker 2: maybe you know, maybe he gets up to forty fifty

1233
01:00:41,960 --> 01:00:44,400
Speaker 2: because I mentioned O'Brien about ten to fifty percent more

1234
01:00:44,720 --> 01:00:48,800
Speaker 2: tight end routes than the Patriots have had over these

1235
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 2: last two years with mac Jones. So I do think

1236
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 2: Kasiki I think, I do think it could draw out

1237
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:56,120
Speaker 2: with him more evenly. But I still think Henry is

1238
01:00:56,120 --> 01:00:58,120
Speaker 2: going to get more routes. I think he has more

1239
01:00:58,160 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 2: touchdown upside, uh, because Henry is more of a traditional

1240
01:01:02,640 --> 01:01:06,600
Speaker 2: blocker and receiver, you know, he could do both with

1241
01:01:06,920 --> 01:01:10,280
Speaker 2: the fact that they gave sixteen mil to Juju, you know,

1242
01:01:10,440 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 2: and and the fact that Kasiki's best role is probably

1243
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 2: more of a team that, like like a Bills team

1244
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:17,480
Speaker 2: that could use like Kincaid as the slot receiver, you know, Like,

1245
01:01:17,760 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 2: I don't think that is this team. So I actually

1246
01:01:20,160 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 2: do think Henry. I'm projecting Henry to outscore Gasicki on media. Now,

1247
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:27,080
Speaker 2: maybe you could argue Gasicki's ceiling is higher, but I

1248
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:30,360
Speaker 2: actually hens is because we've seen Henry be a beast

1249
01:01:30,360 --> 01:01:32,640
Speaker 2: in the red zone with mac Jones, you know, So

1250
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 2: I like Henry. I could be wrong here, but I

1251
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,720
Speaker 2: think Henry's road just isn't gonna change very much. You know,

1252
01:01:39,840 --> 01:01:41,520
Speaker 2: I think what we saw last year is probably the floor.

1253
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:44,000
Speaker 2: What we saw the year before when he had all

1254
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 2: the touchdowns probably the ceiling. But overall, yeah, I think

1255
01:01:47,080 --> 01:01:51,200
Speaker 2: it comes out to a higher median for for Henry.

1256
01:01:51,280 --> 01:01:54,200
Speaker 2: But I mean, obviously both of these guys are outside

1257
01:01:54,200 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 2: of the top top twenty. So when we talking about

1258
01:01:56,520 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 2: two tight end leagus quickly Rimandre rb yeay nay, properly valued, I'd.

1259
01:02:03,200 --> 01:02:05,800
Speaker 5: Say properly valued. I have Marbi ten. I always wanted

1260
01:02:05,800 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 5: to be a little bit higher on him. I think

1261
01:02:07,200 --> 01:02:08,800
Speaker 5: he has a ton of upside, but we just have

1262
01:02:08,840 --> 01:02:11,480
Speaker 5: to remember that sort of the perfect storm happened last

1263
01:02:11,560 --> 01:02:15,840
Speaker 5: year where you know, James White retire, time, Montgomery got injured,

1264
01:02:15,960 --> 01:02:18,400
Speaker 5: Damien Harris got hurt. So I have a little bit

1265
01:02:18,400 --> 01:02:20,320
Speaker 5: more competition, but I think he proved last year he

1266
01:02:20,360 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 5: could be the workhorse back. So he's in my top ten.

1267
01:02:23,800 --> 01:02:26,439
Speaker 5: But you gotta be careful with them. You know, things

1268
01:02:26,480 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 5: can change. Bill Belichick has been known to have committees,

1269
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 5: so I won't say frozen pond, but he does have

1270
01:02:33,640 --> 01:02:35,479
Speaker 5: more downside than I think people think.

1271
01:02:35,760 --> 01:02:37,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think that's the fair way with it.

1272
01:02:37,880 --> 01:02:39,720
Speaker 2: Like I love the yards after contact three point eight

1273
01:02:39,800 --> 01:02:42,280
Speaker 2: last year, third out of sixty qualified running back to

1274
01:02:42,320 --> 01:02:48,200
Speaker 2: corn to PFF. But I do kind of worry about

1275
01:02:48,280 --> 01:02:50,760
Speaker 2: the past game usage. It was very high last year,

1276
01:02:51,920 --> 01:02:53,959
Speaker 2: and you know, more so than the regards per route

1277
01:02:53,960 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 2: was high, just he got a lot of routes and

1278
01:02:56,480 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 2: O'Brien has used running backs less and titans more in

1279
01:02:59,240 --> 01:03:01,440
Speaker 2: the past game. If you remember, like a Lamar Miller,

1280
01:03:01,600 --> 01:03:04,400
Speaker 2: he would get like, you know, sixteen seventeen, eighteen carries,

1281
01:03:04,400 --> 01:03:07,680
Speaker 2: but not not as many routes run out of the backfield.

1282
01:03:07,760 --> 01:03:09,880
Speaker 4: So I think that is a little bit of a concern.

1283
01:03:10,000 --> 01:03:10,800
Speaker 2: I prefer to draft a.

1284
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:11,600
Speaker 4: Wide receiver in this rank.

1285
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:12,600
Speaker 2: I think that's that's what.

1286
01:03:12,560 --> 01:03:15,880
Speaker 4: I'm getting at HIGG right right.

1287
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:16,160
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1288
01:03:16,880 --> 01:03:19,400
Speaker 2: So I won't say flat out bust. I won't say

1289
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:21,600
Speaker 2: Are eleven is the wrong spot for him in terms

1290
01:03:21,640 --> 01:03:24,920
Speaker 2: of the running backs, but I will say I think overall,

1291
01:03:25,720 --> 01:03:27,440
Speaker 2: I think you want to be going wide receiver at

1292
01:03:27,440 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 2: that spot. James Robinson RB seventy nothing guaranteed, but could

1293
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 2: have could emerge in that Damien Harris role, you know,

1294
01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 2: maybe get you know, six to ten carries a game.

1295
01:03:41,120 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 2: And Peter Strong Junior is still there, He's going RB

1296
01:03:43,320 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 2: seventy four. So that's just one. I think we got

1297
01:03:45,360 --> 01:03:48,480
Speaker 2: a monitor. You see, if if Robinson is healthy, I

1298
01:03:48,480 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 2: think he wins that role and maybe a little bit

1299
01:03:50,240 --> 01:03:53,720
Speaker 2: of a of a value there, but until until we

1300
01:03:53,760 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 2: get any quality, I don't think there's a massive edge there.

1301
01:03:58,360 --> 01:03:59,680
Speaker 2: But yeah, let's let's wrap it up.

1302
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:00,959
Speaker 4: You like to.

1303
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:05,840
Speaker 2: Recap DeVante Parker as an undervalued guy for the Patriots,

1304
01:04:06,280 --> 01:04:10,800
Speaker 2: uh And I like Juju And then in terms of bust,

1305
01:04:11,000 --> 01:04:14,440
Speaker 2: you're going Hunter Henry. I'm not gonna say he's undervalued,

1306
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: but I think he's a little more properly valued, and

1307
01:04:16,600 --> 01:04:19,000
Speaker 2: I mean undervalued if if if you had, if I

1308
01:04:19,040 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 2: had to choose, but you like him to bust and

1309
01:04:21,920 --> 01:04:23,760
Speaker 2: I like the sticky to bust, So that'll be a

1310
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:28,680
Speaker 2: fun one to uhid action. Yeah, but that is going

1311
01:04:28,720 --> 01:04:32,640
Speaker 2: to wrap up our AFC East preview pod for the

1312
01:04:32,720 --> 01:04:36,240
Speaker 2: Fantasy Flex our afcast off season preview. If you want

1313
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 2: to hear us talking NFC East, that episode will be

1314
01:04:38,720 --> 01:04:41,440
Speaker 2: up Friday right here on the Fantasy Flex Feed, and

1315
01:04:41,640 --> 01:04:45,560
Speaker 2: stay tuned for our AFC and NFC North preview episodes

1316
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:48,240
Speaker 2: next week. You can find Sewan on Twitter at the

1317
01:04:48,320 --> 01:04:51,360
Speaker 2: Underscore Odds Maker and be at Chris Raybond and ret

1318
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:55,439
Speaker 2: those same handles on the free award winning Action Network CALF.

1319
01:04:56,080 --> 01:05:06,960
Speaker 2: Until next time, Let's get this Money. Action Network reminds

1320
01:05:07,000 --> 01:05:10,840
Speaker 2: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1321
01:05:10,840 --> 01:05:14,000
Speaker 2: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1322
01:05:14,040 --> 01:05:16,040
Speaker 2: to seven at one eight hundred Gambler