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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Wednesday morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: I'm your host, Matt for All Dumb Betting Pros dot com.

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Speaker 1: This whole thing be brought to you by bet MGM

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Speaker 1: and you can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: All right, so ohen one, last night, Jamal Murray got us. Look,

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Speaker 1: we had a bet earlier in the bubble if you

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Speaker 1: remember where we had the over for the Nuggets. We

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Speaker 1: bet overs a lot with the Nuggets, and Jamal Murray

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Speaker 1: got hot really late in the fourth quarter, hit a

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Speaker 1: couple of crazy threes, and I got into an argument

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Speaker 1: with somebody actually was He was like, you're unders dead

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Speaker 1: or your over's dead. And it turned out to hit

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Speaker 1: because Murray went crazy. So I guess we were due

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Speaker 1: to have Murray come back and bite us, because that's

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Speaker 1: how it goes. It tends to even things up. So

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Speaker 1: oh and one on the night last night, we avoided

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Speaker 1: the Joker point total. I did not play that. He

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Speaker 1: wound up with twenty two points after scoring fifteen in

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Speaker 1: the first half. I thought the over twenty three and

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Speaker 1: a half and twenty four and a half, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: hit for sure, and he winds up one bucket shy

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Speaker 1: of hitting the twenty three and a half and then

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Speaker 1: you know three point shy of going over twenty four

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Speaker 1: and a half. So I avoided that. So just an

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Speaker 1: oh in one night, we did not add as I say,

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Speaker 1: you can follow me on Twitter if I add anything

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Speaker 1: at Sports Talk Matt, I'll tell you, hey, I'm adding

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Speaker 1: this to the Daily Juice. Plays did not add that

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Speaker 1: last night, so I'm glad that I did not. So

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Speaker 1: just an owen one night, one unit down, So not

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Speaker 1: the big of a deal after a good Monday on

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Speaker 1: a four and oh so a four and one week

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Speaker 1: going so far for us here, still up and still

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Speaker 1: doing well. We got a bunch of things to get

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Speaker 1: to you here today. I want to tell you a

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Speaker 1: bit about a fourth quarter in game trend for football

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Speaker 1: that you may want to watch this coming weekend if

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Speaker 1: you like to end game wager or you have at

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Speaker 1: your book the ability to bet on fourth quarter totals

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Our Guy Todd and Iowa, a great

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Speaker 1: listener for The Daily Juice, passed this along and he

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Speaker 1: want me to tell you guys about it. So we're

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Speaker 1: gonna do that here today. I have got a teaser

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Speaker 1: bet already that I want to take now before the

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Speaker 1: lines move. So we're two and zero on our teaser.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you the teaser early, give you it

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Speaker 1: on a Wednesday. We're giving it to you for the

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Speaker 1: teaser for Sunday. And I have another college football bet

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Speaker 1: I want to pass along, and we will have one

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Speaker 1: play going tonight on the Stanley Cup game between the

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Speaker 1: Dallas Stars and the Tampa Bay Lightning. So just one

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Speaker 1: play for Wednesday, a couple of football plays and a

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Speaker 1: trend that I want to talk about here in just

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Speaker 1: one second for us for NFL Sunday coming up here

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Speaker 1: for us with the Daily Juice. But first there's an

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Speaker 1: offer I want to tell you about that's available right

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Speaker 1: now for a Thursday. This is involving the Nuggets and

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Speaker 1: the Lakers coming up for Game four. So it's back

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Speaker 1: to the same thing with bet mgm. If you are

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Speaker 1: a new user and you haven't gone and gotten a

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Speaker 1: bet mgm account yet you like basketball, you bet one

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Speaker 1: dollar to win one hundred dollars if either team he

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Speaker 1: hits a three pointer coming up in Game number four,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna get paid out in free bets. It's available

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Speaker 1: in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, and West Virginia for new

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Speaker 1: uses only. It's good until Thursday. Okay, it's good until

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Speaker 1: tomorrow before game number four between the Lakers and the Nuggets.

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Speaker 1: So go take advantage of that. You bet one dollar

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Speaker 1: either team hits a three, it's gonna happen. You get

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Speaker 1: one hundred dollars in free bets from bet MGM. Betmgim

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Speaker 1: wants you to go to betemgim dot com for terms

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Speaker 1: and conditions. You must be twenty one years or older

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Speaker 1: physically located in Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey, or West Virginia.

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Speaker 1: Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one hundred five two

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Speaker 1: to two forty seven hundred in Colorado and Nevada, one

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Speaker 1: hundred gambler in New Jersey, in West Virginia, or one

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Speaker 1: hundred and nine with it in Indiana. Let's talk about

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Speaker 1: some very interesting trends that are our guy Todd in

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Speaker 1: Iowa uncovered for us here while he was pulling numbers. Now,

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Speaker 1: Todd and I uncovered that second period over trend earlier

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Speaker 1: in the bubble. Remember that, so Todd went and pulled

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Speaker 1: some numbers in the fourth quarter and this has hit

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Speaker 1: already consistently, including on Monday Night where he bet the

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Speaker 1: over fourth quarter total at thirteen and a half for

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Speaker 1: the Raiders in the Saints, and it hit easy. So

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Speaker 1: in Week one Todd went and pulled this. Okay, he

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Speaker 1: went and pulled Week one. The average points scored in

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Speaker 1: the fourth quarter of the NFL sixteen point seven points

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Speaker 1: scored in Week two eighteen point four points scored. Four

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Speaker 1: games have scored ten points or fewer over a thirty

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Speaker 1: two game sample size, So fourth quarter overs right now

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Speaker 1: conceivably or on a twenty eight to four run. DraftKings

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Speaker 1: has it for live betting, other books have it for

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Speaker 1: pregame betting. But essentially, if you're looking at a line

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Speaker 1: that's somewhere around thirteen and a half thirteen up to

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Speaker 1: basically seventeen, right between thirteen and seventeen, if that's where

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Speaker 1: your book's gonna put the fourth quarter right now, it

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Speaker 1: makes sense though, right because what is going on right now?

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Speaker 1: For teams? They get tired. Defenses are tired. They're not

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Speaker 1: playing and practicing the same way they haven't had preseason,

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Speaker 1: the same way they don't have their game loungs. The

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Speaker 1: defenses are just straight up tired. So late fourth quarter

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Speaker 1: scoring right now early in the NFL is up. Now.

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Speaker 1: I don't think this trend lasts for long. Here. I

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Speaker 1: would say play it in the month of September and

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Speaker 1: then probably wait and see if it continues. But twenty

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Speaker 1: eight and four is a bonkers run. That's better than

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Speaker 1: the second period overs that Todd uncovered. So he played

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Speaker 1: it Monday and he hit Okay, So there's that big

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Speaker 1: popular Well that's not the big popular trend everyone's talking

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Speaker 1: about for Week three in the NFL. I'll get to

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Speaker 1: that here in a second. But that is a wild, wild,

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Speaker 1: wild trend. So again, just to recap, Todd has uncovered

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Speaker 1: this through his points and he's a big numbers guy.

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Speaker 1: Found that in Week one the average scoring in the

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Speaker 1: fourth quarter in the NFL sixteen point seven points. In

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Speaker 1: Week two, eighteen point four points scored, and through in

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Speaker 1: four games have scored ten points or fewer over a

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Speaker 1: thirty two game sample size. So right now, fourth quarters

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Speaker 1: overs are on a twenty eight to four run. So

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Speaker 1: check your book out coming up on Sunday DraftKings. If

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Speaker 1: you're a DraftKings player, it's an in game wager. Other

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Speaker 1: books may have it as a pre game wager where

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Speaker 1: you can bet on points in the fourth quarter. Check

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Speaker 1: out the totals. You know this is gonna be probably

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Speaker 1: if a team. If a game has a high total,

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Speaker 1: it's probably gonna be a high fourth quarter number, low

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Speaker 1: low fourth quarter. Most likely. You know, I've got a

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Speaker 1: forty two total. Probably the fourth quarter numbers aren't gonna

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Speaker 1: be that high. So maybe you feel like, great, let's

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Speaker 1: go ahead and bet some of those in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: Maybe you get some points, So just keep that in mind.

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Speaker 1: Called going into week number three, I'm gonna watch this

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Speaker 1: on Thursday Night football because the game is absolute trash.

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Speaker 1: So the game's bad, so why not watch it and

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Speaker 1: see if we can bet it and get it with

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Speaker 1: an in game on a fourth quarter over. So I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna watch it for my books here in Vegas. You

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Speaker 1: should watch it for your books as well. So fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter over trends. If you're still confused, reach out to

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt and ask me

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Speaker 1: a question. But that is cool, and thanks to Todd

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Speaker 1: and IOWA for uncovering that little trend for us here

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Speaker 1: in the NFL. Okay, the teaser bet is coming out early.

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Speaker 1: Hold on for that let's first get to the play tonight,

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Speaker 1: which is the under five goals at plus one ten

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Speaker 1: for the Lightning and the Dallas Stars. So here's my

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Speaker 1: thought as to why the number is five and why

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Speaker 1: is it juice to plus one ten Steven Stamkos right.

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Speaker 1: Will Steven Stamkos play in game number three? I don't

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Speaker 1: think so. Even if he does play, he's been off

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Speaker 1: for so long that I don't think he's gonna step

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Speaker 1: back onto the ikes and all of a sudden he's

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Speaker 1: gonna start putting pucks in the neet consistently. If you

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Speaker 1: look at the way the teams have been scoring and

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Speaker 1: the way these teams have been playing Dallas, five goals

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Speaker 1: or less have been scored in seven straight games for Dallas.

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Speaker 1: In five goals or less have been scored for five

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Speaker 1: straight games for the Tampa Bay Lightning. So neither team

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Speaker 1: is scoring a ton although it was a four to

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Speaker 1: one win last time, five goals. I just think you

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Speaker 1: have a good chance of pushing at five, and if

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Speaker 1: things keep going the way they're going, where both goaltenders

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Speaker 1: are going to stand on their head, I think the

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Speaker 1: under five and getting some plus money on that, I

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Speaker 1: think that's a good way to go. I think that's

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Speaker 1: a decent angle to take here for this game, and

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Speaker 1: I think the books are kind of hedging as to

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Speaker 1: whether or not Stamco's plays, So even though it is

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Speaker 1: plus money, I do think the under is the play here.

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Speaker 1: So under five goals for Game three of the Stanley

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Speaker 1: Cup Finals, that's the only play we've got here going

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Speaker 1: on a Wednesday night. But I like the under of

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Speaker 1: five goals between Dallas and Tampa for Game three of

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Speaker 1: the State and the Cup. I'm gonna pass on the

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Speaker 1: Celtics again because we have the Celtics bet rolling here,

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Speaker 1: right we have Boston has one point thirty to win

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Speaker 1: the series against Miami. I don't need to get back

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Speaker 1: involved with this game because I'm still concerned about Boston

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Speaker 1: in the later part of these games collapsing and Gordon

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Speaker 1: Hayward's introduction is massive. So maybe in game five I'll

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Speaker 1: get involved here. But I just think there's too much

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Speaker 1: in flux to get involved with Boston any more than

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Speaker 1: we already are committed. You know, we're pot committed anyway,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna be hesitant to get involved here. Maybe

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Speaker 1: a player prop I might add that, So definitely be

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Speaker 1: following me at Sports Talk, Matt. There may be a

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Speaker 1: player proper too, Jimmy Butler, maybe a Gordon Hayward player

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Speaker 1: prop that I like, but I'm not gonna get anything

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Speaker 1: pre game right now, at least from a total perspective

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Speaker 1: or a side perspective for this. I do think Boston

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Speaker 1: wins enties to the series at two, but I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna hope that happens and not bet it because I

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Speaker 1: want Boston even and up because we have that minus

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Speaker 1: one thirty play on Boston to win the series, so

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Speaker 1: huge game. Gordon Hayward needs to be gigantic, So we're

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Speaker 1: just gonna pass on basketball. So well, play on hockey,

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Speaker 1: passing on basketball. All right, So here's the teaser in

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Speaker 1: the NFL for this week, and you could probably predict this.

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Speaker 1: So the Raiders have a Monday Night victory, a monster win.

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Speaker 1: They're going across the country to play a very angry

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Speaker 1: Patriots team that should have won against the Seattle Seahawks,

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Speaker 1: and the Patriot defense is going to be ferociously mad

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Speaker 1: at the way they were passed on by Russell Wilson.

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Speaker 1: I mean, Stefan Gilmour got lit up. I mean just

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Speaker 1: lit up. DK metcalf eight his lunch. The Patriots are

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Speaker 1: going to be flying around here, and I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a tough game for Derek Carr. They're two

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Speaker 1: to zero, they got the win. It's an emotional letdown spot.

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Speaker 1: So let's take the six and a half point number

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Speaker 1: and let's tease it down because I do think that

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Speaker 1: line's going into seven and maybe even higher, maybe seven

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Speaker 1: and a half. I think the public's gonna come in

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Speaker 1: and nail on the Patriots and just say Pats at home,

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Speaker 1: Cam Newton Raiders. I don't buy the Raiders. You know,

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Speaker 1: they beat Carolina on the road, But going to Foxborough

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Speaker 1: and taking on Bill Belichick, good luck. Gruden already is

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Speaker 1: talking today, was talking about the tuck rule again. I

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Speaker 1: mean we're going back to that. I mean, my goodness, gracious, yeah, Patriots.

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Speaker 1: Tease it down to a half a point, Patriots half

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Speaker 1: a point, the first leg of the teaser, the second

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Speaker 1: leg of the teaser. I'm gonna fade Washington quite a

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Speaker 1: bit this year. Okay. I know they beat the Eagles

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Speaker 1: in Week number one. That was fool's gold, and I

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Speaker 1: think the Eagles are trash, so that's nothing I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: jump um down about and the Browns are at home,

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Speaker 1: and the Browns I think are going to start to

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Speaker 1: put points up. And Washington's defense is awful, defensive line's good,

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Speaker 1: everything else is awful. So maybe they don't run the ball,

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Speaker 1: but I think Baker Mayfield and company are gonna put

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Speaker 1: up some points the line seven. I want to get

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Speaker 1: this before it moves over seven, because I do think

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Speaker 1: it will go above seven, but potid it closes. So

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Speaker 1: we're gonna tease the Browns down to minus one at

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Speaker 1: home against Washington. So two leg teaser. It's again minus

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Speaker 1: one forty like it always is. But Patriots half a point,

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Speaker 1: Browns minus one, two leg teaser. We're two to ozh

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Speaker 1: so far making those teasers. I'm giving it to you

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Speaker 1: early here in the week because I want to make

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Speaker 1: sure that we're getting below two on both these numbers

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Speaker 1: and so we don't have to worry about a last

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Speaker 1: second victory. We can get ourselves victories here. Just win

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Speaker 1: and we're good. That's it. Half a point, one point

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Speaker 1: Patriots and the Browns. Two leg teaser and one more

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Speaker 1: play in college football that I want to give you

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Speaker 1: guys here because I do think this number is going

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Speaker 1: to climb the closer we get to kick off Texas

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Speaker 1: at Texas Tech. Texas Tech had major COVID nineteen problems

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Speaker 1: for their first game against you Houston Baptist, and look

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Speaker 1: when that happens, it's difficult to get a read on

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Speaker 1: a team like Texas Tech because this is their arch nemesis,

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Speaker 1: their art drival in Texas. But the Longhorns go into

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Speaker 1: this game with a really talented offense led by Sam Ellinger,

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Speaker 1: who threw for four hundred and twenty six yards and

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Speaker 1: tossed a touchdown to five different receivers in the first

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Speaker 1: half against UTEP, and they didn't play the rest of

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Speaker 1: the way, so it was essentially a scrimmage. Tom Herman

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Speaker 1: called it a scrimmage. Okay, they're going to Texas Tech

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Speaker 1: and they're going to ruin the Red Raiders. I expect

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Speaker 1: a blowout victory here, even with players coming back from

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Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. Look, I had COVID. It's not easy to

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Speaker 1: start playing football after you've had COVID. Whether you're asinmatic

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Speaker 1: or you've been sick, it's still not easy. You've been quarantined,

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Speaker 1: you haven't been able to run around. Haven't been able

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Speaker 1: to lift and work out. Not easy to do. So

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Speaker 1: the Red Raiders are going to be in deep water

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Speaker 1: here against Texas and they had their star running back,

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Speaker 1: Sir Roderick Thompson arrested on Monday from a drag racing

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Speaker 1: incident back in June. He's been accused of fleeing the

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Speaker 1: scene with a fellow teammate who was also arrested. He

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Speaker 1: led the Red Version rushing last year. He led them

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Speaker 1: in Texas Tech's opening win against Houston Baptist, which is

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Speaker 1: an FCS team. The Texas Tech had a rough time

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Speaker 1: putting away, all right. So this is in state rivalry,

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Speaker 1: this is recruiting. This is a whole lot on the

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Speaker 1: board here for Texas who are one to zero, who

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Speaker 1: want to keep things rolling. Last year in Austin, Texas

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Speaker 1: one forty nine to twenty four, I mean people have said, well,

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Speaker 1: you know before these games have become kind of close,

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Speaker 1: and you know they've got a good quarterback, Alan Bowen. Now, man,

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Speaker 1: I'm not buying Texas Tech at all right now, Herman

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Speaker 1: on the road, I expect them to destroy Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna lay the eighteen points here. Texas Big over

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech even on the road at minus eighteen. We're

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Speaker 1: taking Texas Tech, even though Tom Herman is saying be careful,

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Speaker 1: be careful. Ah, not so much here. That's coach talk. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that's oh speak. I like Texas big over Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: Laying the eighteen points coming up here for Saturday in Lubbock, Texas.

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Speaker 1: So to recap the plays here, one play going on

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Speaker 1: Wednesday night, the under for Tampa Bay in Dallas under

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Speaker 1: five goals at plus one ten Saturday, Texas Tech Texas

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Speaker 1: Texas minus eighteen. We're laying the points and we're teasing

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Speaker 1: the Patriots and the Browns down to a half foo

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Speaker 1: point and one for minus one for the Browns. And

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Speaker 1: let's watch that fourth quarter trend coming up on Thursday

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Speaker 1: as well. My name is Matt Parraltz. You can follow

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt four and one

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Speaker 1: week going. Let's keep it rolling here, much more to come,

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Speaker 1: more plays, Tell your friends about the daily juice, Let's

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Speaker 1: keep building the community. We're back every morning off of

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