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Speaker 1: Hey guys, how are you welcome into a Wednesday morning

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Speaker 1: edition on the Deal Juice podcast. My name is Matt Parolt.

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Speaker 1: You guys can follow me on Twitter at sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Here on YouTube for the video audio wherever you get

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Speaker 1: your podcasts or as being brought to you by bet

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Speaker 1: MGM that ten dollars offer to win one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty dollars on any event. Use the promo Go Juice

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Speaker 1: one fifty at betmgm dot com. If you ever forget it,

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Speaker 1: go to YouTube and it's right above me here on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: and you guys can see it all right. So one

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Speaker 1: in tonight, Celtics get thumped by the Lakers. Lebron was

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Speaker 1: on one. Tatum looked good early, but without Jalen Brown

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Speaker 1: they ran out of firepower. So the Lakers get one

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Speaker 1: over on the Celtics and they cover that three and

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Speaker 1: a half point line quite easily. We laid two, we

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Speaker 1: took two and a half line, closed at three and

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Speaker 1: a half. Lakers cover every number they went going away.

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Speaker 1: Now we should have. I mean, Tennessee goes to overtime

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Speaker 1: with Texas Tech, but I have never seen a more

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Speaker 1: horrific three point shooting team than Tennessee in that game,

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Speaker 1: oh my two for twenty nine at one point, and

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Speaker 1: they hit a three to go to overtime, I mean,

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Speaker 1: ironically enough, and everyone thought, okay, now here comes the

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Speaker 1: cover because Tennessee and overtime is gonna whip. And it

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Speaker 1: didn't happen. So unfortunately we get that wrong. So it's

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Speaker 1: a zero and two night there. We get Nova right, however,

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Speaker 1: coming back on them covering the nine and a half,

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Speaker 1: So Villanova right one in two night, losing night down

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Speaker 1: above point six units on the night, so not great.

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Speaker 1: I did not do player props because I had a

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Speaker 1: hellacious day. I was running around and I thought about

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Speaker 1: just grabbing the top two on the prop bet cheat sheet,

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Speaker 1: and I was like, you know what, I'm just not

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna force it. There's no need to just

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Speaker 1: kind of throw out player props. I'm not gonna fully

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Speaker 1: research it, just go ahead and take it blindly. And

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to do that. I don't think that's

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Speaker 1: doing my job. So I didn't do that. So we

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Speaker 1: just said, fine, let's take the three bets in a

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Speaker 1: way we go all right. So here's what I'm doing tonight.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna tell you right now here at the top.

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Speaker 1: Deph Curry over whatever the number is for him to

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Speaker 1: make three pointers. If Steph Curry hits fifteen threes tonight, yes,

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Speaker 1: I said fifteen. If he hits fifteen threes, he breaks

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Speaker 1: the record for the most three pointers made in NBA

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Speaker 1: history with Ray Allen. They're gonna feed him the basketball.

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Speaker 1: Portland sucks, Okay, they suck and they're bad. They're gonna

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Speaker 1: feed him the basketball like crazy. Curry props go nuts,

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Speaker 1: go nuts on points, go nuts on threes. I don't

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Speaker 1: think the books can set a number high enough. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think Curry's gonna go off. So right now, player

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Speaker 1: props aren't out yet. But once they do come out

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Speaker 1: for Steph Curry, look at the made threes and unless

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Speaker 1: it's like I don't know, let me double check to

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Speaker 1: make sure that FanDuel is not putting. They always come

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Speaker 1: out with numbers. First. Let's see if Fandel has made

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Speaker 1: three pointers. Ah, they do. Okay, let's see Steph Curry.

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Speaker 1: How about that? I mean you can there's not even

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Speaker 1: so they do it a little bit differently. So over

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Speaker 1: six and a half made threes for Steph Curry is

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Speaker 1: my one twenty guys. All right, so I can't get

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Speaker 1: this till the morning. I'm gonna tell you that right now. Okay,

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Speaker 1: at FanDuel made threes over six and a half for

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Speaker 1: Steph Curry, half a unit okay, half a unit over

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Speaker 1: six and a half made threes. That number is. I

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Speaker 1: can't believe how low that number is. I mean, I'm

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Speaker 1: not saying that Curry's gonna hit fifteen threes. But I

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Speaker 1: was talking at lunch today with a very big Warrior fan,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of chatter in the Warrior chat

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Speaker 1: rooms in Twitter about Curry doing something stupid tonight. So

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Speaker 1: I was gonna do a half a unit teaser. I'm

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Speaker 1: not doing that. Now. We're imputting a half a unit

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Speaker 1: on Steph Curry over six and a half made threes,

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Speaker 1: half unit on a prop. Bet over six and a

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Speaker 1: half minus one twenty over six and a half. I

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Speaker 1: haven't bet this yet. I gotta bet this after I

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Speaker 1: get off the pod here, because we started the podcast

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Speaker 1: when I was prepping, they had not put up props yet,

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Speaker 1: and now props are up. Steph Curry over six and

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Speaker 1: a half made threes minus one twenty. Yes, he will

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Speaker 1: hit seven threes every shot he takes. I mean, they're

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Speaker 1: gonna try to get him the record if they can.

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Speaker 1: And against Portland, who plays horrendous defense. Let me just

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Speaker 1: like you know, I'll give you an example of where

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Speaker 1: Portland is just from a numbers perspective, Portland is just

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Speaker 1: me and my goodness, are they bad. The line's fourteen points.

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Speaker 1: By the way, uh, Portland overall this year, they're giving

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Speaker 1: up one hundred and eleven points. That's twenty six best

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Speaker 1: and they are worst in in the NBA. But defensively,

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Speaker 1: this is where it gets really nasty for them. They

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Speaker 1: are thirtieth and three point defense thirty eight point six

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Speaker 1: percent given up. They are twenty sixth in two point

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Speaker 1: defense fifty four percent. They are thirtieth an effective field

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Speaker 1: goal percentage, giving up fifty five point six percent opponent

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Speaker 1: effective field goal percentage. The Warriors are second in the

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Speaker 1: NBA ineffective field goal percentage at fifty six point four.

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Speaker 1: The Warriors are third in the NBA it made three

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Speaker 1: point percentage thirty seven point six made threes per game.

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Speaker 1: Warriors number two in the NBA fifteen point four. Portland

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Speaker 1: thirteen point nine made threes given up per game. That

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Speaker 1: is twenty ninth half a unit. Steph Curry over six

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Speaker 1: and a half made threes tonight for minus one twenty.

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Speaker 1: I'm scrapping the other bet that I was gonna give you, guys,

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Speaker 1: if you're curious what it was, it was a Warriors

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Speaker 1: Kings five point teaser. Forget it. Okay, that was gonna

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Speaker 1: be for a half a unit. Forget that bet. Curry

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Speaker 1: over six and a half made threes is the number.

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Speaker 1: Get on this early. This number is gonna spike. There

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Speaker 1: is no way that thing holds for Steph Curry made

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Speaker 1: threes tonight against the Trail Blazers, given that he can

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Speaker 1: break the record tonight. So uh uh six and a

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Speaker 1: half over half a unit, minus one twenty Steph Curry

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Speaker 1: over six and a half made threes. All right, there's

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Speaker 1: our one NBA bet on the night. Other bets for tonight,

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Indiana at Wisconsin. This number is three

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Speaker 1: and a half. Okay, this is interesting. Wisconsin at home

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Speaker 1: six and two against the numbers so far this year,

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin's two and two. They're four and oh on the

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Speaker 1: road against the spread. But they are two and two

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Speaker 1: Indiana oh to one against the number five and three.

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Speaker 1: Over All, they have been playing better. Last five. They're

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Speaker 1: four and one against the number five consecutive covers four Wisconsin.

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Speaker 1: They covered against Marquette, Georgia Tech, Saint Mary's, Houston, and

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Speaker 1: Texas A and M, winning all of those games. They've

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Speaker 1: won five games in a row and they've covered five

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Speaker 1: games in a row as well. Indiana no slouch though

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Speaker 1: here thirty. You know, they beat Louisiana, Lafayette, Jackson State,

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Speaker 1: Marshall and covered all three of those games. Lost to Syracuse,

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Speaker 1: which is a big oh to me. I don't think

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Speaker 1: Syracuse is very good. We saw that tonight against Villanova,

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Speaker 1: and then they beat Nebraska by thirteen points in their

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Speaker 1: last game, covering the eleven and a half point number.

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Speaker 1: I like Wisconsin minus three and a half tonights to win,

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Speaker 1: to control tempo, take the air out of the ball.

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Speaker 1: The total is one thirty two and a half. We

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Speaker 1: know Wisconsin plays, but they are at home. They are frustrating.

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Speaker 1: I just think defensively, Wisconsin's going to be able to

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Speaker 1: frustrate Indiana. Wisconsin giving up just fifty nine point one

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Speaker 1: points per game. Indiana scores eighty points per game. That's

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Speaker 1: pretty good. Thirt eight best in the country, about twentieth

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Speaker 1: best for Wisconsin. On the other side, Wisconsin's offense is okay.

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Speaker 1: Indiana's defense okay, sixty three point eight points given up

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Speaker 1: for Indiana, seventy point six, but points scored for Wisconsin.

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Speaker 1: I think Wisconsin's defense is going to be the difference here.

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Speaker 1: I think rebounding is going to be the difference here.

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin is you know, in okay rebounding, a great rebounding team.

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Speaker 1: But defensively, I think they get out on the perimeter,

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Speaker 1: they shut down the deep shots, slow tempo, frustrate Indiana.

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Speaker 1: Like Wisconsin at home minus three and a half here

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Speaker 1: for a half a unit. Okay, So there's the one

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Speaker 1: unit in basketball Wisconsin minus three and a half at

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Speaker 1: home against Indiana. Five straight covers for Whiskey, five straight wins,

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Speaker 1: five straight covers. Let's keep that positive momentum going here

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Speaker 1: with Wisconsin at home against Indiana and then Steph Curry

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Speaker 1: over six and a half may threes. That's the one

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Speaker 1: NBA play for us here on a half for a

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Speaker 1: half of units. And I do want to give you

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Speaker 1: one NFL play here early because at the books here

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Speaker 1: in Vegas it's Tampa minus three minus one twenty. Okay,

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Speaker 1: what that means when you see minus one twenty is

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Speaker 1: the books are seeing early action on Tampa and they

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Speaker 1: will drive this thing off of three to three and

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Speaker 1: a half. Now, to me, that is a significant situation

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Speaker 1: because I think a lot of public but betters will

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Speaker 1: come in on Buffalo. So the number may come back down,

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Speaker 1: but it might not. And the respected money driving this

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Speaker 1: over to three and a half is my concern because

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Speaker 1: I want this at three. I don't want this at

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Speaker 1: three and a half. I want this at three. So

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Speaker 1: I'm willing to bet this on a Wednesday early to

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Speaker 1: guarantee myself that I get the three. And it's an

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Speaker 1: important number. So let's talk about Buffalo at home against

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Speaker 1: Sorry Tampa at home against Buffalo on Sundays a four

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Speaker 1: to twenty five Eastern Time. Kickoff of this game, Tom

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Speaker 1: Brady against the Buffalo Bills. Bill's coming off that embarrassing performance.

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Speaker 1: You know they're going to be angry. Problem is they're

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Speaker 1: going on the road and they're going up against a

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Speaker 1: defense or an offense that could really make their defense struggle.

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Speaker 1: Tampa six and six against the spread, but they've covered

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Speaker 1: three straight games they are four and one at home.

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Speaker 1: Tampa's four and one at home against the number. Bills

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Speaker 1: are four and two on the road, so that they've

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Speaker 1: done well on the road here. But last time out

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Speaker 1: on the road against New Orleans seven point favorites, won

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Speaker 1: by twenty five thirteen a half point favorites against the

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Speaker 1: Jets won by twenty eight in their previous two and

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Speaker 1: then they had that loss to Jacksonville. Last time they

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Speaker 1: were in Florida and they lost to Jacksonville, so they

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Speaker 1: haven't done very well. But home games against the Giants

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Speaker 1: ten and a half point favorites, they won by twenty.

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Speaker 1: The Tampa Bay Bucks did road games in Indy and Atlanta.

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Speaker 1: They won by seven and thirteen to cover for both

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Speaker 1: those games. Here look Buffalo's defense. I was watching Brian

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Speaker 1: Baldinger's breakdown. It's insane. The Patriots were in the same

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Speaker 1: play right and left, over and over and over again, demoralizing.

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Speaker 1: I mean, just to the point where there was a

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Speaker 1: media member in Buffalo that actually asked two captains of

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Speaker 1: the Bills, are you embarrassed by what the Patriots just

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Speaker 1: did to you? I mean, in a press conference. That's

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Speaker 1: how shook the Bills media aka Bills fans. Are they

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Speaker 1: asked their players, are you embarrassed? That's horrific. What an

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Speaker 1: awful question, But an awful thing to ask a player

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Speaker 1: what you think the guy wanted to lose? My goodness,

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Speaker 1: I'm a Patriot fan and I'm like, what are you doing, dude,

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Speaker 1: what a horrible question. Buffalo's got problems. They got big problems,

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Speaker 1: and I think it comes down to the fact that, look,

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Speaker 1: Tampa can run the football. We know what Tampa can do.

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Speaker 1: They can pound the rock four point two yards per rush,

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Speaker 1: seventeenth best in the NFL. Thirty two ninety two yards

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Speaker 1: per game on the ground, not great, but Leonard Fournette

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Speaker 1: can run and he can cause problems. They're averaging one

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdown per game. Buffalo is giving up one rushing

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Speaker 1: touchdown per game. But the real problem is the fact

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Speaker 1: that the Patriots the pictures that the Patriots didn't have

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Speaker 1: to throw football, and Tampa can throw the football. We

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Speaker 1: know what they can do, and with Trayvon White being out,

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Speaker 1: Trey White not being there, that Patris didn't really exploit

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Speaker 1: it because well, they didn't throw the football in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: Gronkowski is going to eat he's gonna eat. I mean

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Speaker 1: they are gonna throw and throw and throw. Josh Allen's

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Speaker 1: gonna have a bounce back game. I fully expect Buffalo's

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Speaker 1: offense to play much better. Fully expect them to score

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Speaker 1: a bunch of points here. I think it's a high

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Speaker 1: scoring game. I don't mind to play on the over,

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Speaker 1: but you guys know how I feel about totals fifty

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Speaker 1: two and a half. I'm gonna stay away from that.

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Speaker 1: I think Tampa minus three is to play, and I

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Speaker 1: don't want three and a half. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: worry about it. I just want the three points, and

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Speaker 1: I'm paying the mines one twenty juice on it, and

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Speaker 1: I'm okay with that. I'm gonna go one unit here,

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Speaker 1: Tampa minus three minus one twenty for one unit here

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Speaker 1: early play during the week, simply because I don't want

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Speaker 1: that number to move off. I'm concerned about that number

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Speaker 1: moving to three and a half and then I have

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Speaker 1: to play around with it and wait and see, and

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Speaker 1: it's a significant move from three to three and a

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Speaker 1: half in my mind to me, So I'm taking it

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Speaker 1: early Tampa minus three up against Buffalo because they're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a whole lot of trouble dealing with Brady and

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Speaker 1: company as they're fighting for that number one seed and

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Speaker 1: everything else. With Tampa. I mean, they've been very, very tough,

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Speaker 1: very tough at home, and frankly, you know, they're eyeballing

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Speaker 1: a chance to get the one seed. They're eyeballing a

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Speaker 1: chance to wrap up the division. They're nine and three

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Speaker 1: on the year, they are five and zero at home.

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Speaker 1: I'm laying just three points on this, Yeah, Tampa minus three,

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Speaker 1: one unit coming up on Sunday. All right, three bets

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Speaker 1: for you guys here on a Wednesday. Steph Curry over

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Speaker 1: sixty six, excuse me, over six and a half. Mady

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Speaker 1: Threes at minus one twenty half a unit. We're going

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half. Wisconsin half a unit at

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Speaker 1: home against Indiana one unit. Tampa Bay minus three, minus

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Speaker 1: one twenty at home against the Buffalo Bills minus. Matt

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Speaker 1: Paratti hasn't followed me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 1: Each and every morning, it's the Daily Juice Podcast, always

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Speaker 1: being brought to you by bet MGM