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Speaker 1: Some of the jobs you might get a NASA have

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Speaker 1: really awesome sounding titles.

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Speaker 4: I heard you can morganize and be called a spaceship commander.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, or even better, you could be the head of

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Speaker 1: planetary Defense.

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Speaker 4: Are you serious? Is that like a real title?

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Speaker 1: Absolutely?

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Speaker 4: Wait, so what are we what do we need to

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Speaker 4: defend against like rogue planets, evil planets.

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Speaker 1: We're not expecting an attack from Mars, but we do need

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Speaker 1: to be defended against killer asteroids from out of space.

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Speaker 4: That would be an armageddon.

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Speaker 1: That's right. That's why they have Bruce Willis on call

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Speaker 1: at all times.

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Speaker 4: Hey, I have an idea for a movie.

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Speaker 1: What's your idea?

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Speaker 4: Die hard in space? In space, no one can hear

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Speaker 4: you shoot a gun.

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Speaker 1: It's not hard to die in space.

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Speaker 4: Soul. Hello, I'm Jorge and I'm Daniel, and this is

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Speaker 4: Daniel and Jorget explain the universe.

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Speaker 1: Today. We're talking about a pretty big question when it

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Speaker 1: comes to humanity, which is is an asteroid gonna come

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Speaker 1: and kill us?

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Speaker 4: All?

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Speaker 1: So grim stuff, grim stuff, but also important. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you might brush this off as irrelevant, but we know

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Speaker 1: from some pretty recent scientific history sixty five million years ago,

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Speaker 1: the dinosaur extinction was caused very likely by an asteroid

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Speaker 1: impact just the other day, just the other day, in

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Speaker 1: geologic terms.

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Speaker 4: So it could happen to us, that's right.

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Speaker 1: And so since we're all concentrated on this one planet,

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Speaker 1: you know, all of our humanity's eggs are in one

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Speaker 1: basket almost literally, it's a reasonable question to ask.

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Speaker 4: So Daniel went out and asked people in the street

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Speaker 4: are they concerned about an asteroids killing us? All?

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Speaker 1: Here's what they said.

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Speaker 5: Well, maybe it's possibility, and I mean it's quite possible,

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Speaker 5: but there has to be certain things to happen for

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Speaker 5: that in order that take place. You know, you got

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Speaker 5: to have holes in the ozone, you gotta have meteoroids coming,

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Speaker 5: you got to be able to project it.

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Speaker 4: You know, you got to know.

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Speaker 5: I mean, we have the technology so it can stop it.

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Speaker 4: I think there's a chance.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, are you worried about it?

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Speaker 5: I read that like it's a low probability, but every

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Speaker 5: day that goes by, the probability like compounds so that.

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Speaker 1: There's a high chance now.

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Speaker 5: But honestly, like it's whatever, Like if it happens, it happens.

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Speaker 4: You know, it's all a question of probability, but it's uh,

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Speaker 4: there's a finite possibility.

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Speaker 1: So it seemed like a lot of people were aware

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Speaker 1: of the danger, but a lot of people also sort

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Speaker 1: of put it off. They're like, well, it's a possibility,

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Speaker 1: but they don't think about it. Right. There's like a

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Speaker 1: fascinating dissonance.

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Speaker 4: There, they don't seem that concerned.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, like I got other stuff to worry about, gas

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Speaker 1: in my car, or am I gonna you know, is

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Speaker 1: self driving uber gonna run me over?

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Speaker 4: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: They seem to be more worried about that.

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Speaker 4: They seem to be very pragmatic, like, I know the

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Speaker 4: probability small, I'm not going to worry about it as

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Speaker 4: much as I'm going to worry about, you know, getting

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Speaker 4: run over by a car.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. There's like hierarchies of worry. You know, It's like

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Speaker 1: that's on the list of things I should worry about,

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Speaker 1: but I don't actually have time to worry about. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and maybe if I just ignore it, it'll go away, right,

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Speaker 1: sort of that list of problems.

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Speaker 4: And then some people seem to have just like this

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Speaker 4: super confidence in scientists and engineers. You know, they're like, yeah,

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Speaker 4: I know we it could kills all, but you know,

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Speaker 4: I think we probably have the technology and they're probably

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Speaker 4: working on it.

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Speaker 1: I love that slash. I'm terrified by it. I love

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Speaker 1: it because I love that they're like, yeah, scientists are

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Speaker 1: pretty capable. I mean, in the movies, all it takes

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Speaker 1: to solve this problem is like a couple pots of

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Speaker 1: coffee and a musical montage, and the scientists have an answer.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 1: I love that.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but don't forget the chalkboard. You know, here's the solution.

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Speaker 1: It's always at least one musical montage though, right. I'm

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Speaker 1: terrified though, because it means that they're like, well, I

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Speaker 1: don't have to worry about it. We don't have to

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Speaker 1: do anything, you know, I'm sure science has it covered.

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Speaker 1: And as you're going to learn in today's episode, there's

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Speaker 1: there only are some vulnerabilities there. You know, there's a

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Speaker 1: possibility that an asteroid, if it comes, could wipe us out,

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Speaker 1: even if we do see it coming.

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Speaker 4: It's non zero, the probability, it's.

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Speaker 1: Non zero, definitely on the list of things you should

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Speaker 1: worry about but probably don't have time to do anything

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Speaker 1: about anyway.

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Speaker 4: Right, right, Okay, So what is the probability then that

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Speaker 4: we're going to get hit by an asteroid?

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Speaker 1: Seven? The probability, it's fascinating. It's sort of unknown, and

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Speaker 1: you know you have to think about, like, what is

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Speaker 1: the kind of thing that's going to hit us? Right?

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Speaker 1: So we're talking about rocks, right, and when you look

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Speaker 1: out into space, you see the bright stuff, you see

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Speaker 1: the stars, you see the moon, you see things that

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Speaker 1: give off light. There's other stuff out there that's dark

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Speaker 1: that you don't see unless it happens to reflect light,

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Speaker 1: you know, like shining from moonlight or sunlight or something.

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Speaker 1: So there's a huge number of rocks that are still

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Speaker 1: out there in the Solar System and in the universe.

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Speaker 1: And that's what we're talking about, like a big rock

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Speaker 1: slamming into the area.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I thought that was super interesting to find

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Speaker 4: out that. You know, when we people see movies like, oh,

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Speaker 4: we're going to get hit by an asteroid, it's usually

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Speaker 4: like this thing that comes from the void of space

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Speaker 4: that's going to hit us out of the blue. But

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Speaker 4: the truth is apparently that we're like surrounded by asteroids.

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Speaker 4: There's like gazillions asteroids that were like hanging around us.

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Speaker 1: Right. Yeah, there absolutely there's rocks everywhere in our solar system.

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Speaker 1: And you have to understand like how our solar system

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Speaker 1: came to be. You know, our solar system is like

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Speaker 1: gravity slowly over billions of years, pulling together rocks and

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Speaker 1: rubble and dust into larger pieces. Right, Like, how do

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Speaker 1: you form a star? You got a big ball of

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Speaker 1: gas and you wait a billion years, and gravity eventually

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Speaker 1: pulls it together and compresses it and compresses it so

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Speaker 1: much that it turned to like a fusion bomb. Right,

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Speaker 1: that's how powerful gravity is over long times. Right, they've

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Speaker 1: given enough time. It can pull anything together, but it

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Speaker 1: doesn't get everything. So there's still you know, enough rocks

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Speaker 1: lept over to make Earth and enough bits left over

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Speaker 1: to make Jupiter, and not all those bits get pulled

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Speaker 1: into a planet. And that's why you have things like

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Speaker 1: the asteroid belt, which has a huge number of rocks

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Speaker 1: in it.

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Speaker 4: They're like the crumbs from making the planets, right.

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Speaker 1: That's right. Somebody ate a cake and the asteroid belt

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Speaker 1: are their crumbs left over, and they didn't sweep up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Or like you know when you're making like meatballs

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Speaker 4: or bread or something and you're like you're like you

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Speaker 4: grab some and you like you pad it down. You

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Speaker 4: make something, but there's always all these little bits lying around.

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Speaker 1: That's right. And I usually wipe down my counter. But

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Speaker 1: whoever made the Solar System didn't And for scale, like

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Speaker 1: I look this up and if you add it up,

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Speaker 1: like all of the rocks in the asteroid belt, it's like,

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Speaker 1: you know, one twenty fifth of the of the size

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Speaker 1: of the Moon. So most of the stuff in the

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Speaker 1: Solar system.

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Speaker 4: Wait, that's it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's four percent of the moon. If you

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Speaker 1: add up all the stuff in the asteroid.

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Speaker 4: Belt, all that stuff, I thought it was like thicker

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Speaker 4: and more massive.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, And fascinatingly some of them, it's mostly a few

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Speaker 1: big rocks. Like half of the stuff in the in

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Speaker 1: the asteroid belt is just four really big rocks. But

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of rocks out there.

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Speaker 4: How many rocks are there?

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Speaker 1: How many rocks are there?

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Speaker 4: Is there an estimate like.

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Speaker 1: Well, there's we don't know the number of rocks in total,

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Speaker 1: because you can't count the really tiny ones, like we

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Speaker 1: are the big one. We know big ones, and as

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Speaker 1: they get smaller and smaller, there are more and more,

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Speaker 1: and as they get really small, they get really numerous,

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Speaker 1: and then they're basically impossible to see and impossible to count.

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Speaker 1: And the thing to understand there is that obviously the

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Speaker 1: biggest rocks are the more dangerous and the smallest ones

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Speaker 1: are less dangerous, and so we're mostly worried about the

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Speaker 1: biggest rocks, right right, Like some of those rocks are

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Speaker 1: pretty big.

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Speaker 4: Like we need to worry about the rocks in our

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Speaker 4: solar system that we're like hanging out with. Like I

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Speaker 4: was thinking, like an analogy is that, like we're like,

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Speaker 4: we're in the toilet, right, and this toilet is is

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Speaker 4: swirling around and we're like this little pebble on it?

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Speaker 1: Is this your personal toilet model of the solar system?

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Speaker 4: Yes?

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Speaker 1: I think Copernicus rejected that, didn't he explicitly?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? I don't think you had toilets back.

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Speaker 1: Then, right, You're right, all right, go ahead.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, so it's like we're swirling around and we're

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Speaker 4: this little ball, but there's all these other little balls

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Speaker 4: swirling around around us, and we're just hoping that in

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Speaker 4: this swirling round none of them are going to hit us.

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Speaker 4: It's like this chaotis giant thing, right, isn't it?

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Speaker 1: at applecard dot com. Right, so, let's think of the

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Speaker 1: solar system as this big swirling mass. I think that's

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Speaker 1: fair analogy. I mean, a toilet bowl makes it sound

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Speaker 1: like everything is cycling towards the center, which we're hopefully

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Speaker 1: not going to get flushed into the sun. But you're right,

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Speaker 1: everything's been swirling around and in the beginning, I think

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Speaker 1: there was a lot of bumping. Right, there's a big,

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Speaker 1: disorganized mess and its swirled together, and the bumping is

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Speaker 1: how we got planets and stars and all that kind

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Speaker 1: of stuff. But now, billions of years later, right, the

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Speaker 1: Earth is at least four billion years old, billions of

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Speaker 1: years later. Things have been swirling around for a long time,

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Speaker 1: and things that we're going to bump together and form

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Speaker 1: together mostly.

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Speaker 4: Have things have settled down.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we're sort of in the you know, happy middle

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Speaker 1: ages of the.

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Speaker 4: Solar system, the end of the flush.

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Speaker 1: We're waiting for the big flush. Yeah. So the interesting

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Speaker 1: thing is that there are rocks in our solar system,

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Speaker 1: which if they hit the Earth could do serious damage.

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Speaker 1: Like the biggest in the asteroid belt is nine hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty kilometers across, which is huge. Yeah, it's enormous.

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Speaker 4: That's like what like Florida.

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Speaker 1: I don't know, but the one that killed the dinosaurs

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Speaker 1: was about ten kilometers across, no way, So yeah, nine

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty kilometers across. It's like a planetbuster. So there's

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Speaker 1: definitely stuff in our solar system which if it hit us,

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Speaker 1: could do serious damage. So maybe you're right that's a

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Speaker 1: surprise to people.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's like we're living with them. It's like your

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Speaker 4: roommate could kill you at any time.

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Speaker 1: More like your neighbor. But you know, that's sort of

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Speaker 1: something we were accustomed to. You know, you try not

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Speaker 1: to look in their windows too much and get too

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Speaker 1: worried about it. But yeah, you never know when your

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Speaker 1: neighbor's going to smash into you and cause an explosion

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Speaker 1: the size of a nuclear warhead.

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Speaker 4: Yeah. Well, let's talk about the spectacular group stuff, like

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Speaker 4: what's the probablity of surviving an asteroid hitting us?

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Speaker 1: Right? Yeah, and that again depends entirely on the size.

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Speaker 1: For example, there are asteroids hitting the Earth all the time,

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Speaker 1: like things that are, you know, less than a meter

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Speaker 1: in size. These rocks are hitting the Earth all the time.

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Speaker 1: But the Earth is big and these asteroids are small.

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Speaker 1: And every time you look up it's in the night

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Speaker 1: sky you see a shooting star that is a rock

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Speaker 1: hitting the Earth. I remember we have something like a windshield, right,

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Speaker 1: We have this atmosphere which protects the Earth and it

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Speaker 1: protects us from various cosmic rays, but also from space rocks.

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Speaker 1: Because what happens when a rock hits the atmosphere. It's

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Speaker 1: sort of like I don't know, like an elephant hitting

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Speaker 1: a water bed or something. Right, it impacts and it

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Speaker 1: gets and it pushes the air out of the way,

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Speaker 1: but it gets heated up by all that air.

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Speaker 4: It's so fast. The air feels like this, like this

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Speaker 4: giant jet that strips it away.

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Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, exactly like in all those movies when space

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Speaker 1: ships are re entering atmosphere. That's because of all the

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Speaker 1: friction from the air on the space ship. And spaceships

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Speaker 1: usually have like nice protection fancy tiles or something that

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Speaker 1: the astronauts from being burnt to a crisp But a

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Speaker 1: space rock is just a rock, and sometimes it's made

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Speaker 1: of ice or rubble or or whatever. It doesn't have

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Speaker 1: that and so usually they burn up in the atmosphere,

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Speaker 1: and that's what shooting stars are. So we're constantly being

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Speaker 1: hit by very small ones, which we couldn't have seen

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Speaker 1: in advance because they were too small. But they don't

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Speaker 1: do any damage.

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Speaker 4: So air is good.

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Speaker 1: Air is good for.

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Speaker 4: Good thing we have it.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, But then about one every five years or so,

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Speaker 1: you get a rock that's like five meters in size.

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Speaker 1: And a rock five meters in size has a lot

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Speaker 1: of kinetic energy to it, right, It's been traveling through

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Speaker 1: space for a long time. By the time it hits

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Speaker 1: the Earth, that's been pulled on by a gravitational field.

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Speaker 1: It has about as much energy as the nuclear bomb

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Speaker 1: that exploded over Hiroshima. It's a lot of energy.

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Speaker 4: So a five meter asteroid is about the size of

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Speaker 4: a Mimi van or school bus.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it's about a school bus and it blows up.

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Speaker 1: And about once every five years one of those hits

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Speaker 1: the Earth and makes a pretty spectacu explosion. Now, most

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Speaker 1: of the Earth, of course, is covered in water, and

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Speaker 1: we're not like imaging all the atmosphere simultaneously. These things

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Speaker 1: can happen in the upper atmosphere. Because you might be thinking, hmm,

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Speaker 1: I think i'd noticed if somebody blew up a nuclear

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Speaker 1: bomb every five years. But these kind of things can

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Speaker 1: happen and we don't necessarily notice them.

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Speaker 4: Really, So five years ago we had a Hiroshima style

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Speaker 4: asteroid hit us.

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Speaker 1: The odds are that sometime in the last five years,

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Speaker 1: there's a good chance that a pretty big rock hit

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Speaker 1: the atmosphere and burned up upon entry, leaving as much

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Speaker 1: energy as a Hiroshima explosion. Yeah, and the energy isn't

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Speaker 1: quite as concentrat it's not as focused in one spot

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Speaker 1: as the Horosima explosion, but yeah, it can leave a

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Speaker 1: substantial amount of energy.

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Speaker 4: Like by the time it reaches the ground or the ocean,

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Speaker 4: it has that much energy.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think in order to reach the ground, that's

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Speaker 1: about the threshold about five meters. And remember there was

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Speaker 1: a pretty big explosion over Russia in twenty thirteen.

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Speaker 4: And Chelli, yeah, I've seen the videos on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, everybody saw on the videos. It just happened like

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Speaker 1: one morning, huge explosion in the sky, like like an

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Speaker 1: enormous bomb, and everybody was shocked and like a thousand

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Speaker 1: people I think were hurt when that happened, and nobody

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Speaker 1: saw it coming right like, there was no warning. The

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Speaker 1: warning was when it appeared in the atmosphere and it

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Speaker 1: just blew up. And that's exactly what happened. And I

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Speaker 1: think little bits of it might have reached the ground,

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Speaker 1: but mostly it exploded in the atmosphere. Wow.

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Speaker 4: So if it had been like twice a size, somebody

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Speaker 4: could have been hit by an asteroid.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. Absolutely. And the bigger they get, the more dangerous

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Speaker 1: they get. You know, if it gets big enough, then

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Speaker 1: it's you know, it can it can explode in the

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Speaker 1: atmosphere and leave huge clouds of dust and rubble and

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Speaker 1: all sorts of stuff. And it can when it hits

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Speaker 1: the ground, it can throw up enormous clouds of dust

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Speaker 1: and rubble. And that's where the danger really lies. Like

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00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:49,880
Speaker 1: not necessarily, even are you actually hit by a rock,

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00:18:50,040 --> 00:18:53,000
Speaker 1: Like being actually physically hit by the rock from space

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00:18:53,400 --> 00:18:55,359
Speaker 1: is a tiny fraction of the danger. One of the

403
00:18:55,359 --> 00:18:58,119
Speaker 1: real dangers is just that it like covers the sun

404
00:18:58,800 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 1: and causes a know, I guess you would call it.

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Speaker 4: Like a environmental catastrophe.

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Speaker 1: Environmental catastrophe. I was looking for, like asteroidal winter, steroidal winter,

407
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 1: asteroidal winter. Yeah, we are coining new science term. We

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Speaker 1: have the toilet bowl universe and the asteroidal winter.

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Speaker 4: You almost want to be hit by an asteroid large

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Speaker 4: enough so that you die instantly and you don't die

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Speaker 4: from this like agonizing post apocalyptic environmental disaster.

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Speaker 1: Well, I guess you can choose how you go. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if the asteroid hits the Earth and you get vaporized immediately,

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Speaker 1: like it just hits your city, huge explosions, you know

415
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Speaker 1: your entire city is destroyed. You know, you can make

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Speaker 1: like a crater like a thous hundred kilometers wide or something.

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00:19:49,119 --> 00:19:51,920
Speaker 1: You could die instantly, and you might prefer that because

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Speaker 1: what comes next is like a cold long winter, you know,

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Speaker 1: where all the crops die, and that only people who

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Speaker 1: stockpile a lot of lentils in their basement are let's survive.

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Speaker 1: But also if it hits the water, you have a

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Speaker 1: whole other problem, which is like massive tsunamis right, I mean,

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Speaker 1: imagine go back to like our space cow hitting a

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Speaker 1: waterbed or I guess we were talking an elephant or

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Speaker 1: something like if a big rock hits the ocean. You

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Speaker 1: might think, oh, great, that's going to absorb the impact. Well, yeah,

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00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,320
Speaker 1: it's going to absorb the impact, and it's gonna absorb

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Speaker 1: in form of a huge wave, right, Like you know,

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Speaker 1: a wave's called kilometer high could wash over the planet.

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Speaker 1: It's crazy, but.

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Speaker 4: It sort of the pants on the size, right. So

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Speaker 4: we're getting pelted all the time by little ones. As

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Speaker 4: they get bigger, they get more and more dangerous, and

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Speaker 4: at some point it's like an of the world.

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Speaker 1: That's right. I think if they get big enough, then

436
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Speaker 1: we're talking planet killers. You know, something that starts off

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00:20:42,800 --> 00:20:45,719
Speaker 1: super volcanoes, you know, like rips open the Earth's crust

438
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,960
Speaker 1: and releases you know, the magma and the lava that's underneath.

439
00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:53,119
Speaker 1: And we're talking about not just tsunamis and not just earthquakes,

440
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: and not just the sky full of dust, but also

441
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:59,880
Speaker 1: massive oceans of lava covering the ground. And so that's

442
00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:02,840
Speaker 1: that's pretty serious stuff. But you know that's unlikely. That

443
00:21:03,760 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 1: requires a really really big rock, you know, And I

444
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,160
Speaker 1: looked up some numbers here also in like a five

445
00:21:09,280 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 1: kilometer wide rock carries one hundred zeta jewels. That's ten

446
00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 1: to the twenty three jewels, all right, And so for comparison,

447
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 1: is that a lot. That's a lot, Like the average

448
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,160
Speaker 1: American uses about ten to the eleven jewels in a year,

449
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 1: and all of humanity uses like ten to the twenty

450
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,240
Speaker 1: jewels in one year. So that one collision carries like

451
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 1: a thousand years worth of energy for humanity. So it's

452
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,360
Speaker 1: a huge amount of energy in a big collision like that.

453
00:21:37,720 --> 00:21:40,479
Speaker 1: But again, remember the really big ones are rare, Like

454
00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: they estimate, for example, that a rock five thousand meters

455
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 1: wide that's what we're talking about here, is like every

456
00:21:46,880 --> 00:21:48,679
Speaker 1: twenty million years or so.

457
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 4: But we could be at the end of that lifespan.

458
00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 4: So that's the thing. It's like there's rocks of all

459
00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 4: kinds of sizes out there, from little ones, big ones,

460
00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,479
Speaker 4: and the bigger they are, the less likely we are

461
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 4: to get, the less common they are, but the more

462
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:06,520
Speaker 4: destructive they are.

463
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 1: That's exactly right.

464
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 4: So it's kind of like this this this kind of

465
00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,679
Speaker 4: this kind of opposing curves, you know, like bigger but

466
00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:17,760
Speaker 4: less likely, but more dangerous.

467
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: That's right. Bigger is less common but more dangerous. It's

468
00:22:20,480 --> 00:22:23,320
Speaker 1: absolutely true. And there's another piece of good news, which

469
00:22:23,359 --> 00:22:25,280
Speaker 1: is the bigger they are, the more likely we are

470
00:22:25,359 --> 00:22:28,240
Speaker 1: to see them right and to spot them, which means

471
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,000
Speaker 1: we might have some idea about whether they're coming or not.

472
00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 4: Well, yeah, let's talk about that, like how do we

473
00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,240
Speaker 4: see them? And like what's NASA doing about it? People

474
00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:43,159
Speaker 4: seem to have all this great confidence and scientists and

475
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 4: I'm going to lay it all out on NASA. I

476
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:47,120
Speaker 4: have a lot of friends at NASA, So you guys

477
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 4: are awesome, Like what are they doing about it? How

478
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:50,520
Speaker 4: do they see them?

479
00:22:50,720 --> 00:22:53,160
Speaker 1: Yeah? They have a dedicated team that's talk that they're

480
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:55,320
Speaker 1: called like the Planetary Defense Force or something.

481
00:22:55,880 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 4: And are they really called that? Yeah?

482
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,720
Speaker 1: I think so, the Near Earth PDS Planetary Defense Team.

483
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 4: Are they called the Near Earth Objects Group? Yeah?

484
00:23:05,800 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: Neo Near Earth objects is what they study. And they

485
00:23:09,359 --> 00:23:13,040
Speaker 1: basically just use telescopes and they scan the sky and

486
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: they look for rocks. And you have to spot these

487
00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:18,640
Speaker 1: things at the right time when the sun is reflecting

488
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 1: off of them, so that we can see them on

489
00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:23,240
Speaker 1: Earth because they don't glow right. They're dark rocks, and

490
00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:26,639
Speaker 1: the rocks respond differently lights. Some of them respond in

491
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,240
Speaker 1: this kind of lighting condition, and that kind of lighting

492
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 1: condition is a different brightness. So You basically just have

493
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 1: to pay attention all the time and notice one. And

494
00:23:33,520 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 1: if you get a few pictures of it, the more

495
00:23:35,840 --> 00:23:38,000
Speaker 1: pictures of it you can get, the more you can

496
00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: you can know its size and its direction. And if

497
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:43,440
Speaker 1: you know its size and its direction, then you can

498
00:23:43,480 --> 00:23:45,800
Speaker 1: plot its course into the future. You can say, oh,

499
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 1: I think I know where this rock is and which

500
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 1: direction it's going.

501
00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:50,399
Speaker 4: And like which orbit it's in.

502
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, you can use my model of the Solar

503
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,920
Speaker 1: system and understand where it's going to be and where

504
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,439
Speaker 1: we're going to be, and then they can project forward.

505
00:23:57,640 --> 00:24:00,560
Speaker 1: And the more measurements they have, the tighter that band

506
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,240
Speaker 1: of uncertainty is, like the tighter the projection is for

507
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,480
Speaker 1: where that rock is going to be over the next

508
00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: year or decade or century. And they can plot Earth's

509
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,600
Speaker 1: movements and they can say whether or not we're in

510
00:24:12,600 --> 00:24:14,919
Speaker 1: the clear or not. So it all comes down to

511
00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: NASA sky scanning the sky with their telescopes looking for

512
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:20,640
Speaker 1: these rocks and hoping a spot one.

513
00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 4: So they see like a bright dot moving in the

514
00:24:22,520 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 4: sky and they can maybe if you take several measurements,

515
00:24:25,320 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 4: you can see it curving or going at a certain speed,

516
00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 4: so you can tell sort of from from that, you

517
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:34,159
Speaker 4: can tell kind of what the trajectory around the Sun is.

518
00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, and they've been doing this for a few decades,

519
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:38,359
Speaker 1: and so they've seen these rocks go around the Sun

520
00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 1: a few times, and they get better and better measurements,

521
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: and so they can make better and better predictions. And

522
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,919
Speaker 1: that's why it's easier to see the big ones, right,

523
00:24:47,000 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: because they reflect more light and they're just easier to spot.

524
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: So it's good that the big ones, the more dangerous ones,

525
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,040
Speaker 1: are the easiest ones to see. It'd be scary if

526
00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:57,840
Speaker 1: the smaller ones were dangerous because they're basically invisible.

527
00:24:58,080 --> 00:25:01,920
Speaker 4: Right. So that's like the planet pitary defense strategy, right,

528
00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:05,880
Speaker 4: it's just like look out, try to spot them before

529
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:06,880
Speaker 4: they hit us.

530
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,919
Speaker 1: Yeah, Step number one is figure out is one going

531
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,840
Speaker 1: to hit us? And at this point they've looked out

532
00:25:12,880 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: into the solar system. They've been watching for a while,

533
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:17,920
Speaker 1: and they're pretty confident that they've seen all the ones

534
00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,720
Speaker 1: that pose really any danger, all the ones that could

535
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:22,639
Speaker 1: do really any danger to the planet or to a

536
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 1: significant civilian population, all the ones above a kilometer in size,

537
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 1: for example.

538
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 4: They think they know all of the all of our

539
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:31,679
Speaker 4: neighbors that could kill us. We think we sort of

540
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,840
Speaker 4: have a check on that. Yeah, they think they see

541
00:25:33,840 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 4: the like a registry over the Yeah.

542
00:25:35,640 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 1: But you know, there could always be one hiding. Like

543
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 1: they've only seen what they've seen. They by definition haven't

544
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,600
Speaker 1: seen what they haven't seen. They can say, well, we've

545
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: been looking at and so if it had been there,

546
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:47,960
Speaker 1: we probably would have seen it. But you know that

547
00:25:48,040 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: could it only takes one, right, it only takes one

548
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:53,600
Speaker 1: to break their model of how they should be seeing

549
00:25:53,600 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: these things that be hiding somehow. But yeah, they've seen

550
00:25:57,320 --> 00:26:00,640
Speaker 1: all those big ones and they've plotted those trajectories and

551
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,359
Speaker 1: they're pretty confident that in the next one hundred years

552
00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: at least none of those big neighbors are going to

553
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: hit us.

554
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've seen those plots. They're crazy. They're like a

555
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 4: picture of the Solar system. And so we're on this

556
00:26:11,600 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 4: orbit around the Sun. But then there's like hundreds of rocks, right,

557
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 4: they have to keep track of their orbits, so it's

558
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 4: a it's like a huge mess this model. Right, it's

559
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 4: like our orbit, but then like the orbits of like

560
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 4: one hundred things going in all kinds of elliptical shapes.

561
00:26:29,280 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 4: And hopefully none we don't intersect one of those ellipses, right,

562
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:33,000
Speaker 4: that's right.

563
00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 1: Yeah. And the thing to understand also is that the

564
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 1: system is a little chaotic. Right, As we said, we've

565
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: been driving around this toilet bowl for billions of years

566
00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:44,200
Speaker 1: and things are mostly stable. But if some rock comes

567
00:26:44,240 --> 00:26:46,520
Speaker 1: from outer space, you know, from deep away from the

568
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 1: Solar system, and gives just a little nudge to what

569
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:53,400
Speaker 1: to some other rock, that rock could bump in mevitationally, right, yeah, gravitation,

570
00:26:53,440 --> 00:26:55,560
Speaker 1: they don't even have to bump, just like affect the

571
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,199
Speaker 1: orbits of one thing, That could affect the orbit of

572
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:00,359
Speaker 1: another thing, which affects the orit of another thing. And

573
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 1: this could you know, cascade and can cause like a

574
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:05,520
Speaker 1: pile up basically, which could knock one of these things

575
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:07,840
Speaker 1: out of orbit, and you know, then it could change

576
00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 1: its trajectory. So it's a difficult problem from a sort

577
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,720
Speaker 1: of chaos theory point of view that a little perturbation

578
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:15,399
Speaker 1: could totally change the answer.

579
00:27:15,560 --> 00:27:17,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, let's talk about that a little bit more. But first,

580
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:18,879
Speaker 4: quick break.

581
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: When you pop a piece of cheese into your mouth

582
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:28,320
Speaker 1: or enjoy a rich spoonful of Greek yogurt, you're probably

583
00:27:28,359 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 1: not thinking about the environmental impact of each and every bite,

584
00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 1: But the people in the dairy industry are. US Dairy

585
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:39,359
Speaker 1: has set themselves some ambitious sustainability goals, including being greenhouse

586
00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: gas neutral by twenty to fifty That's why they're working

587
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:44,359
Speaker 1: hard every day to find new ways to reduce waste,

588
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:48,640
Speaker 1: conserve natural resources, and drive down greenhouse gas emissions. Take water,

589
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,760
Speaker 1: for example, most dairy farms reuse water up to four

590
00:27:51,840 --> 00:27:55,280
Speaker 1: times the same water cools the milk, cleans equipment, washes

591
00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 1: the barn, and irrigates the crops. How is US dairy

592
00:27:58,160 --> 00:28:01,920
Speaker 1: tackling greenhouse gases? Many far use anaerobic digestors that turn

593
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 1: the methane from maneuver into renewable energy that can power farms,

594
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: towns and electric cars. So the next time you grab

595
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 1: a slice of pizza or lick an ice cream cone,

596
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,439
Speaker 1: know that dairy farmers and processors around the country are

597
00:28:12,560 --> 00:28:16,000
Speaker 1: using the latest practices and innovations to provide the nutrient

598
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: dense dairy products we love with less of an impact.

599
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,000
Speaker 1: Visit us dairy dot com slash sustainability to learn more.

600
00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:26,560
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601
00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,000
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602
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,199
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603
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:34,159
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604
00:28:34,240 --> 00:28:34,760
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605
00:28:34,800 --> 00:28:37,919
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606
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616
00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,080
Speaker 4: So you have to keep looking and keep updating your model.

617
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: That's right. You have to keep looking. You have to

618
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 1: keep updating your model, and you have to be aware

619
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,840
Speaker 1: that there are definitely things that are not in your model, right,

620
00:29:22,880 --> 00:29:25,600
Speaker 1: there are things that you haven't seen. And so you're

621
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,480
Speaker 1: right that, like, there's a lot of stuff in the

622
00:29:27,480 --> 00:29:29,480
Speaker 1: asteroid belt and we've seen most of it. And I

623
00:29:29,480 --> 00:29:32,800
Speaker 1: think that the guys and gals at NASA are pretty

624
00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,520
Speaker 1: confident that they've seen those things. But then you have

625
00:29:35,560 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: to worry about things like comets, right, comets.

626
00:29:38,880 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 4: Oh, that's it's something different.

627
00:29:40,280 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's something different, and it's part of our solar system.

628
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: But some of these things have really long periods, like

629
00:29:46,680 --> 00:29:50,120
Speaker 1: really long orbits, like one hundred years or two hundred years,

630
00:29:50,680 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: which means they could be on a trajectory to hit

631
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 1: the Earth in fifty years. But we just wouldn't see

632
00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 1: them right now because they're so far out there and

633
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,200
Speaker 1: they've never come by the Earth while we've had astronomy.

634
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:04,040
Speaker 1: I mean, we've only been looking at the sky for

635
00:30:04,480 --> 00:30:06,280
Speaker 1: you know, a few hundred years, and we've only had

636
00:30:06,320 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 1: modern telescopes for decades. So if there's a planet killer

637
00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:13,240
Speaker 1: out there that's headed towards Earth and just hasn't come

638
00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 1: by in the last you know, seven decades or so,

639
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:18,160
Speaker 1: we might not have seen it.

640
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 4: So we'll only see it when it's closer to us.

641
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, And you might think, well, that seems improbable, like

642
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,920
Speaker 1: I just invented that story, right, But it actually happened once,

643
00:30:27,040 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: and it happened only like was it twenty five years ago?

644
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,040
Speaker 4: It happened that then a comet came into our Solar

645
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 4: System out of the blue.

646
00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 1: Yes, and smashed into a planet out of the black.

647
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 1: That's right. Ooh, I like that, that's the awesome title

648
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: for a book. Out of the Black. Yeah, comet Shoemaker

649
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: Levey came out of the black and whizzed and wizzed

650
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 1: into the Solar system very high speed. And the other

651
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:51,440
Speaker 1: thing is these comets are moving really fast. By the

652
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 1: time they come close to the Sun, they're growing much

653
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: much faster than any asteroid. And and it whizzed around

654
00:30:56,840 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 1: the Sun and it actually got broken up by tidal

655
00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 1: forces into a like twenty three pieces. And this is

656
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:05,840
Speaker 1: really awesome because we could see that it was going

657
00:31:05,920 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: to hit Jupiter, you know, months and weeks before it happened,

658
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,719
Speaker 1: Like they saw it coming into the Solar System, they

659
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: recognized it, they plotted its trajectory. They're like, wow, it's

660
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:14,560
Speaker 1: going to hit Jupiter. Awesome.

661
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 4: So nobody thought like, hey, maybe we should warn potential

662
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 4: people in Jupiter instead of like, hey, let's make some

663
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 4: popcorn and watch this awesome explosion.

664
00:31:25,160 --> 00:31:26,720
Speaker 1: What are we going to do? What are you like

665
00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 1: send them a message like watch out duck. For The

666
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,840
Speaker 1: amazing thing was that it broke into twenty three pieces,

667
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 1: and which means that we got to see twenty three

668
00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 1: different impacts onto Jupiter.

669
00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:46,560
Speaker 4: And the thing is, it's like space is big, right, So,

670
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:51,320
Speaker 4: like you think it was impossibly improbable that this thing

671
00:31:51,360 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 4: would come out of the blue and hit a moving

672
00:31:54,400 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 4: planet that's moving pretty fast around the Sun. But it

673
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 4: actually happened.

674
00:31:57,760 --> 00:32:00,840
Speaker 1: It actually happened. Yeah. And Jupiter is not a small target, right,

675
00:32:00,880 --> 00:32:03,560
Speaker 1: It has a lot of gravity and so you don't

676
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 1: have to get that close before Jupiter like sucks you in.

677
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 1: And and that's how it got so big, right, accumulated

678
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,320
Speaker 1: stuff by pulling it in. But there's something I love

679
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,959
Speaker 1: about the Shoemaker Levy story. First of all, this amazing stuff,

680
00:32:16,000 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: like each of the impacts when it hit created a

681
00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:23,320
Speaker 1: fireball bigger than the Earth, like wow, and we could

682
00:32:23,320 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: see it from here, Like I remember watching this through telescopes.

683
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 1: You could see the impact and these enormous fireballs.

684
00:32:28,560 --> 00:32:30,960
Speaker 4: Really. Yeah, so you were like paying attention because I

685
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 4: don't remember this happening. What, Yeah, but you were you

686
00:32:35,240 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 4: were near a telescope watching like a feed.

687
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,680
Speaker 1: Yeah. I was a nerd in high school and we

688
00:32:39,760 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 1: had telescopes.

689
00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 4: Were are you really? Yeah?

690
00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:44,160
Speaker 1: Absolutely that's so hard to believe. I know, I'm so

691
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 1: cool now, right, That's why it's so difficult for you

692
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:50,680
Speaker 1: to imagine. I was totally a nerd in high school

693
00:32:50,720 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: and we had these telescopes and everybody around the world

694
00:32:53,840 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: was watching. It was a fascinating like I thought the

695
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:57,720
Speaker 1: whole earth was transfixed.

696
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 10: You know.

697
00:32:58,000 --> 00:32:59,959
Speaker 1: Apparently everybody but Jorge was paying attention.

698
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,840
Speaker 4: I had, I was interested in other things in high school.

699
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 1: Well, they the guys and girls at NASA named the

700
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,160
Speaker 1: bits of the common They named it the A, the B,

701
00:33:12,280 --> 00:33:15,120
Speaker 1: the C pieces, right, and then they started to hit

702
00:33:15,560 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 1: and you know, the first one hit Jupiter, and they

703
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: called it the A spot, like where the A hit,

704
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,560
Speaker 1: and then the B B spot, right, they got all

705
00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:25,800
Speaker 1: the way up to you know, the F spot, and

706
00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,720
Speaker 1: then they were like, uh oops, And so they had

707
00:33:29,720 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: the F spot and then the G impact site, right,

708
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:33,480
Speaker 1: and then the H spot.

709
00:33:33,960 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 4: That's funny, And it's funny because that that the G

710
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 4: spot is kind of it probably said it only came

711
00:33:41,160 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 4: about not that long before the eighties.

712
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:46,520
Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I think that was a cultural thing in

713
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:50,520
Speaker 1: the eighties also, so it's sort of cosmically cultural space

714
00:33:50,560 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: based and also human based But the lesson there is

715
00:33:55,080 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: not that you know, Jupiter has a g spot that

716
00:33:56,840 --> 00:33:58,720
Speaker 1: we should all search out. But the lesson is that

717
00:33:58,760 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 1: these things happen, and if it happened in the last

718
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:04,320
Speaker 1: thirty years, that means it's not that unlikely it could

719
00:34:04,320 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 1: happen again. Right, So we should be on the lookout

720
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:09,640
Speaker 1: for commets. It's good that NASA's been looking at asteroids,

721
00:34:09,680 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 1: but comments are a real danger.

722
00:34:11,320 --> 00:34:14,719
Speaker 4: So keep funding NASA, Keep funding NASA. Right, So the

723
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:17,120
Speaker 4: question it should really be is not is an asteroid

724
00:34:17,160 --> 00:34:19,160
Speaker 4: going to kill us all? It's like, is a comment

725
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:20,000
Speaker 4: going to kill us? All?

726
00:34:20,120 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 1: Yeah? Yeah? Absolutely? Is a commic going to kill us all?

727
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 1: Is a fair question that we don't know the answer

728
00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,720
Speaker 1: to because we can't possibly see all the comments because

729
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 1: some of them are so far away and okay, and

730
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,320
Speaker 1: we haven't seen them in a while. Yeah.

731
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 4: Well, so now that I'm concerned, what can we do?

732
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 4: You know, people seem very confident about scientists. We've all

733
00:34:38,840 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 4: seen Armageddon and we've seen Bruce Willis deflect an asteroid

734
00:34:44,960 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 4: for us. What can we actually do is like is

735
00:34:47,200 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 4: that for real?

736
00:34:48,239 --> 00:34:50,279
Speaker 1: Well, you just sit back, drink your coffee and watch

737
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,200
Speaker 1: the people and ask it go to work, right, you know,

738
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 1: just wait for that musical montage and then you get

739
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: your solution. Yeah, the short answer is.

740
00:34:58,000 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 4: Duct tape and duct tape like in the spare parts.

741
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, you got to push up your glasses, up your

742
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 1: nose a few times, and you know, then you get

743
00:35:05,400 --> 00:35:08,640
Speaker 1: to the answer. The short version of the answer is

744
00:35:08,680 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 1: the earlier you see it, the better. Like you're much

745
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 1: better off seeing something which is going to hit the

746
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,399
Speaker 1: Earth in six months or a year than something that's

747
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:18,280
Speaker 1: going to hit the Earth next week. And the reason

748
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:20,880
Speaker 1: is that you have two options. Really, one is deflect

749
00:35:21,200 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 1: and the other is destroyed.

750
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 4: Deflect or destroy. Yeah, deflect, those are the two options.

751
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:29,080
Speaker 4: If we know something's coming at us, we can deflect

752
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 4: or destroy it.

753
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 1: Yeah right, we're coming up with great titles for science

754
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: fiction novels. We have into the black deflect or destroy. Right.

755
00:35:36,440 --> 00:35:40,360
Speaker 1: The idea behind deflect is these things are traveling really fast,

756
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 1: and the Earth is also moving really fast. So if

757
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,359
Speaker 1: you could just nudget a tiny bit like a year

758
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,600
Speaker 1: in advance, it would totally change its trajectory and you

759
00:35:48,600 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 1: can miss the Earth by a few minutes. And that's

760
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,600
Speaker 1: all it takes, right, just has to fly by instead

761
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 1: of smacking into us. The earth is not that easy

762
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:56,759
Speaker 1: a target to hit.

763
00:35:56,920 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 4: It's like threading, putting a thread through a needle. Yeah,

764
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 4: it's like it's such a small thing so that if

765
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 4: you can make it go off a little bit, it'll

766
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 4: totally miss the eye of the needle.

767
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: Yeah. It's like a sniper shooting a thread through a

768
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 1: needle from a mile away, and if somebody pushes him

769
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 1: very slightly or nudges the tip of his rifle, then

770
00:36:17,640 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 1: he's going to miss. And so if you can spot

771
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:23,040
Speaker 1: this thing a long time in advance and somehow deflect it,

772
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 1: then you can be safe. But you know, how are

773
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: you going to do that?

774
00:36:26,160 --> 00:36:27,279
Speaker 4: So how would you do that? Yeah?

775
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, you'd have to build a rocket to go up

776
00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:33,440
Speaker 1: there and visit it somehow. One thing you could do is,

777
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 1: you know, just bump into it, like send something which

778
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,400
Speaker 1: literally bumps into it and deflects it. Another thing you

779
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:41,840
Speaker 1: could do, it's called a gravity tractor, which is an

780
00:36:41,840 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: awesome name, is you just send something up there which

781
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,880
Speaker 1: hangs out next to it, and it's gravity gently pulls

782
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,040
Speaker 1: on it over a long period of time a few

783
00:36:50,040 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 1: weeks or months and changes its trajectory.

784
00:36:52,600 --> 00:36:58,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, like like, hey, what's up standing next to you?

785
00:36:58,120 --> 00:36:59,560
Speaker 1: Give me a a.

786
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:01,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, come here, come here.

787
00:37:03,280 --> 00:37:06,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. So that's just like yeah, so those would deflect

788
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,080
Speaker 1: you know, somehow you could change its trajectory a little bit.

789
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:10,520
Speaker 1: You could save all of our lives.

790
00:37:10,719 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 4: M okay, but you have to know way in advance,

791
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 4: like you have to see it coming.

792
00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:16,239
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you have to be able to get there.

793
00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 1: And we don't have great technology there. I mean, we

794
00:37:18,760 --> 00:37:21,600
Speaker 1: have pretty slow rockets. It would take a long time

795
00:37:21,640 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: to get something to Mars, for example, and so to

796
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,520
Speaker 1: get something to like Jupiter, even if you see it coming,

797
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 1: we'd need much much faster rockets. And so people have

798
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,359
Speaker 1: ideas for you know, like plasma based rockets. It could

799
00:37:32,360 --> 00:37:34,640
Speaker 1: be much faster to deflect this stuff. But we don't

800
00:37:34,680 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 1: have the technology. Like if we saw tomorrow a comment

801
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,000
Speaker 1: that was going to hit the Earth in a year,

802
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: we're not like ready to launch with some awesome rocket

803
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:43,880
Speaker 1: that could do this. It would take us years to

804
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,160
Speaker 1: develop that rocket. It's just not a priority right now.

805
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: That's option A deflected. Option B is destroyed, destroy it, right.

806
00:37:50,239 --> 00:37:51,960
Speaker 1: So you think, oh, it's just send up a nuke, right,

807
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: But what happens if you're if the asteroid at the

808
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,360
Speaker 1: comment is like about to hit the Earth like tomorrow,

809
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:00,000
Speaker 1: and you send up a nuke to blow it up,

810
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: well you're just going to create like a thousand tiny

811
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,680
Speaker 1: bombs instead of one huge bomb, right, And.

812
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,080
Speaker 4: That's how a thousand radioactive tiny.

813
00:38:07,800 --> 00:38:10,919
Speaker 1: Bombs ext It doesn't really help you because it still

814
00:38:10,960 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: delivers all that energy onto the Earth. So you have

815
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:16,719
Speaker 1: to blow it up far enough in advance that then

816
00:38:16,760 --> 00:38:19,080
Speaker 1: the pieces are going to miss the Earth. And also

817
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 1: it depends on like what is it made out of.

818
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,319
Speaker 1: Is it a loosely held ball of rubble and which

819
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: case blowing it up doesn't really change very much, or

820
00:38:27,040 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 1: is it a tightly bound rock, in which case blowing

821
00:38:29,760 --> 00:38:31,880
Speaker 1: it up could fracture it. And then you get two rocks,

822
00:38:31,920 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 1: each of which like pass just on the side of

823
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,840
Speaker 1: the Earth. Like, it depends a lot of those details.

824
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 4: Do you have to be lucky.

825
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,879
Speaker 1: You have to be lucky, and you have to get

826
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,160
Speaker 1: it early enough, so you can't just sit here and say, oh,

827
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:44,959
Speaker 1: we'll blow it up when it gets here, right, that's

828
00:38:45,200 --> 00:38:47,600
Speaker 1: not a good idea. That might as well just blow yourself.

829
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:49,759
Speaker 4: Up, all right, So let's recap. Let's see, is an

830
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:53,320
Speaker 4: asteroid going to kill us all? And first we learned

831
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:57,439
Speaker 4: that we're surrounding our asteroids. There's a bunch of them

832
00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 4: in our own solar system, and we're gonna get hit

833
00:38:59,600 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 4: by one. It's going to come from our own solar

834
00:39:01,480 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 4: system most likely.

835
00:39:02,640 --> 00:39:04,680
Speaker 1: That's right. And there's even other stuff we didn't talk about,

836
00:39:04,680 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: like there's the stuff outside beyond Neptune and this stuff

837
00:39:08,160 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: further out there that we didn't even touch on. We

838
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,319
Speaker 1: just talked about the stuff in the asteroid belt, which

839
00:39:12,360 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: is the closest.

840
00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:17,640
Speaker 4: Those are the ones we've seen. Yeah, okay, but the

841
00:39:17,640 --> 00:39:20,719
Speaker 4: bigger they are, the more likely they are to kill us.

842
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:23,600
Speaker 4: But also the bigger they are, the more likely that

843
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 4: we have seen them and we know they're they're and

844
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 4: we're tracking them.

845
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:28,800
Speaker 1: That's right. And all the big ones in the Solar

846
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 1: System that are potentially planet killers or human extinction makers,

847
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,480
Speaker 1: we've seen those guys, and we're pretty sure that the next

848
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,040
Speaker 1: one hundred years is clear. That's, you know, according to

849
00:39:38,080 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: the good work done by our pals at NASA.

850
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 4: But even more dangerous could be a comet more than

851
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 4: an asteroid, because those could come out of the blue

852
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:47,520
Speaker 4: and out of the black. People won't see them coming

853
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 4: out of the void. Let's go the void the generic

854
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 4: term there. And so it's a comment which you'd maybe

855
00:39:55,560 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 4: be more worried about.

856
00:39:56,560 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and comments are more worrisome because they're potentially going

857
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 1: faster and they're harder to spot. We wouldn't necessarily have

858
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: seen them, and we have an example of one hitting

859
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:07,719
Speaker 1: a planet just in the last few decades, so it's

860
00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:09,800
Speaker 1: not just a crazy science fiction idea.

861
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,600
Speaker 4: So the strategy is look out and make sure that

862
00:40:12,640 --> 00:40:14,840
Speaker 4: we see them early enough so we can do things

863
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:16,280
Speaker 4: like deflected or destroyed.

864
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: That's right. So we should definitely keep funding NASA because

865
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 1: it's only because of NASA and their worldwide partners that

866
00:40:23,040 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 1: we have any idea about what's out there. But we

867
00:40:25,200 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 1: also desperately need to get cracking on some defense systems,

868
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:31,279
Speaker 1: you know, building things that can go out there and

869
00:40:31,320 --> 00:40:34,320
Speaker 1: protect us in case this happens or you know. Another

870
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,759
Speaker 1: strategy is like, let's spread the human eggs out of

871
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 1: just this basket onto some others, because it's very unlikely

872
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:43,400
Speaker 1: that like Earth and Mars are both going to be

873
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:46,200
Speaker 1: hit by an asteroids simultaneous, right, So if we could

874
00:40:46,239 --> 00:40:50,080
Speaker 1: like get humans planet. Yeah exactly. I mean this is

875
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 1: the kind of stuff we should be working on.

876
00:40:51,680 --> 00:40:54,560
Speaker 4: Well cool, I feel great now.

877
00:40:55,080 --> 00:40:57,480
Speaker 1: I think it's fascinating that most people go through their

878
00:40:57,480 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 1: lives and don't worry about these existential threats because you can't.

879
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:02,719
Speaker 1: There's nothing that you can do about it. It's not

880
00:41:02,760 --> 00:41:05,120
Speaker 1: like if you spent five minutes of your day working

881
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,000
Speaker 1: on this problem, it's going to help humanity or something, right,

882
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:10,799
Speaker 1: But it is important that we all think about this

883
00:41:10,840 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 1: when it comes to time to like funding science and

884
00:41:13,280 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: basic research and NASA, because that's when we can do

885
00:41:16,680 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: something about it. When we support candidates that support basic research,

886
00:41:20,080 --> 00:41:22,320
Speaker 1: that's when you're helping the planetary defense system.

887
00:41:22,520 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 4: Right. Well, technically everything's an existential crisis to you, right,

888
00:41:26,080 --> 00:41:28,440
Speaker 4: Like getting hit by a truck. That's a pretty existential

889
00:41:28,480 --> 00:41:30,160
Speaker 4: crisis for you.

890
00:41:30,160 --> 00:41:31,719
Speaker 1: You wouldn't worry truck.

891
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:38,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, great, every night worried about you?

892
00:41:38,640 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 3: Then?

893
00:41:39,640 --> 00:41:40,400
Speaker 1: I'm sorry.

894
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:42,640
Speaker 4: Please be careful when you cross the street.

895
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 1: Please, I'll look up from my phone, I promise.

896
00:41:45,719 --> 00:41:47,520
Speaker 4: All right, Well, thank you for joining us.

897
00:41:47,600 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 1: Thank you very much for listening to us. Worry about

898
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,799
Speaker 1: the end of the world, and keep your eyes on

899
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 1: the sky.

900
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 4: Yeah, look out for the void, Watch out.

901
00:41:56,000 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: For the void. Do you have a question you wish

902
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 1: we would cover, Send it to us. We'd love to

903
00:42:05,960 --> 00:42:08,520
Speaker 1: hear from you. You can find us on Facebook, Twitter,

904
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:12,760
Speaker 1: and Instagram at Daniel and Jorge One Word, or email

905
00:42:12,840 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 1: us to feedback at Danielandhorge dot com. When you pop

906
00:42:29,640 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 1: a piece of cheese into your mouth, you're probably not

907
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 1: thinking about the environmental impact. But the people in the

908
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:38,000
Speaker 1: dairy industry are. That's why they're working hard every day

909
00:42:38,040 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 1: to find new ways to reduce waste, conserve natural resources,

910
00:42:41,120 --> 00:42:44,720
Speaker 1: and drive down greenhouse gas emissions. How is us dairy

911
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:48,839
Speaker 1: tackling greenhouse gases? Many farms use anaerobic digestors to turn

912
00:42:48,880 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 1: the methane from manure into renewable energy that can power farms, towns,

913
00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 1: and electric cars. Visit you as dairy dot COM's Last

914
00:42:56,719 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 1: Sustainability to learn more.

915
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:03,759
Speaker 7: Children, friends and families walking, riding on passing the roads

916
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 7: every day. Remember they're real people with loved ones who

917
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 7: need them to get home safely. Protect our cyclists and

918
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 7: pedestrians because they're people too.

919
00:43:10,440 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: Go safely.

920
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:14,360
Speaker 7: California From the California Office of Traffic Safety and Caltrans.

921
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 8: We're Just days away from our twenty twenty four iHeart

922
00:43:17,719 --> 00:43:21,240
Speaker 8: Radio Music Festival, presented by Capitol On the.

923
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924
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925
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