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Speaker 1: today to make every moment more this football and basketball season.

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Speaker 1: What go Week seven in the NFL. Welcome back into

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Speaker 1: another episode of sports Gambling with money Line Monico. I'm

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Speaker 1: your host, Alex Monico fired. Uh, I don't like my picks.

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Speaker 1: I'm Nick Donald's baba, love my picks. If you've been

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Speaker 1: rocking with me via the Herd Unbelievable, I Heart Radio

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Speaker 1: and All Things podcast Network via in partnership with the

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Speaker 1: Volume Sports Network, you've been aware. I have hit five

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Speaker 1: or six weeks positive, which isn't the easiest thing to do,

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Speaker 1: but we come off a brutal week last week, we

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Speaker 1: bounced back the next sleep. I told you I know

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Speaker 1: my recovering in and out l a Charger team, being

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Speaker 1: a San Diego kid, I know the a f C

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Speaker 1: West backwards and forwards. That's two straight Monday nights. I

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Speaker 1: have virtually swept the board in a f C West

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Speaker 1: Primetime football. Gave you the Raiders with the points over

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, gave you the Broncos plus four, middled it

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Speaker 1: with the Chargers, took the under Eckler gun in the

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Speaker 1: end zone. We're faced it over here, and that's why

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Speaker 1: we can't shape the beer. But as we know in betting,

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Speaker 1: it's all about what you do next. Let's get on

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Speaker 1: our Belichick. We're on to Cincinnati. That is one of

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Speaker 1: the games I'm discussing. Don't forget to subscribe. Rate review

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Speaker 1: goes a long way. All picks on Action Network, all

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Speaker 1: social media on money Line Monico, Alex Monico on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: All right, five picks, we're gonna dive in here. I

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Speaker 1: want to start with the marquee matchup of the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: and the nine years. We're gonna pump the brakes for

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Speaker 1: a second. I gotta make you wait. One pick before

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Speaker 1: we dive into the number one, We're gonna dance with

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Speaker 1: a little old school doug ee p going against the

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Speaker 1: Giants like it's eighteen. Hi, how are you Jacksonville hosting?

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Speaker 1: Not your neighborhood New York Giants people, you're five and

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Speaker 1: one already surpassed last year's win totals. Hijack kids, Hi,

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Speaker 1: Joe wife, New York Giants. No one can figure out

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Speaker 1: this code? No one even in New York where I live.

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Speaker 1: What is happening with New York Football? All three, all

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Speaker 1: three teams from the state above five and cooking hasn't

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Speaker 1: happened since the O O's we digress. Jacksonville comes in

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Speaker 1: and we took him last week against the Colts. Killed us.

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Speaker 1: Still claim it was the right side. If you watched,

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Speaker 1: it went backwards and forwards all game. They come in

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Speaker 1: three and oh all time versus New York Football Giants

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Speaker 1: at home. Giants the only team in the NFL that

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Speaker 1: has never won a road game against d Once upon

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Speaker 1: a time expansion team Jacksonville Jaguars D Jones as I

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Speaker 1: like to call Woody from Toy Story. He comes in

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Speaker 1: of seventy percent, seventy percent back to back games for

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Speaker 1: the first time in his career. But you know what,

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Speaker 1: don't look at the stats, even though I will read

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Speaker 1: you the discrepancy between these two teams. Don't even look

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Speaker 1: at box scores because you're gonna lose your mind, because

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Speaker 1: there is no conceivable reason for the New York Giants

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Speaker 1: to be five and one right now. At the most,

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Speaker 1: I fancy them a three and three club. They are

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Speaker 1: playing with house money on so many levels. It is

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Speaker 1: gonna come back at some point. The books are hardly

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Speaker 1: hardly this incorrect. They had the over under for the

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Speaker 1: Giants at seven and a half before the season. The

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Speaker 1: already have five points. But here's what I want to

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Speaker 1: get at and what I want to point out. Don't

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Speaker 1: look at the two and four Jacksonville record verse the

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Speaker 1: five and one Giants, because the average person will say,

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Speaker 1: I'll go g Man all day. I'll take the three.

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Speaker 1: The jaguar Zona plus twenty four points four versus points

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Speaker 1: against point differential. It's sixth past in the league. Just

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Speaker 1: to put it in the layman's terms for you, the

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Speaker 1: Jacksonville Jaguars are sixth in the NFL points four versus

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Speaker 1: points against. Despite it two and four record, matter of fact,

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Speaker 1: it's the best point differential four two and four teams

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Speaker 1: since San Diego Superchargers. Now another bright spot for Lawrence

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Speaker 1: going against a very good Indianapolis Colts team, a defense

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Speaker 1: that I fancy is better than yes and unbelievably scheme

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Speaker 1: defense with Wink at the helm, but not a talent

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Speaker 1: wise better defense than the Colts, and Lawrence goes two

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Speaker 1: against him ninety nine completion percentage dunkest player to ever

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Speaker 1: do that. And again I told you don't get hung

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Speaker 1: up on the stats, but if you want to go there,

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Speaker 1: the Jacks average more points, more yards, more passing yards,

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Speaker 1: they have a better third down percentage. They have seven

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Speaker 1: interceptions to the Giants one. That's what's fascinating you watch

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Speaker 1: that Avens game. Another collapse for Baltimore, who's winning most

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Speaker 1: of the game. A fumble your up and Lamar fumbles

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Speaker 1: the ball. The other thing worth mentioning in this game

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Speaker 1: is Jacksonville has been on the road for forever vev.

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Speaker 1: I mean, my goodness. They have not played oh but

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Speaker 1: two games, one of them was at home opener at

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Speaker 1: home in a month and a half. They get nestled

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Speaker 1: in for a three game homestand which I also like,

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Speaker 1: what's remind ourselves what Jacksonville's defense has done? Because Danny

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Speaker 1: Dimes comes in, I haven't refreshed my Madden roster is

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Speaker 1: something too busy, but I imagine he's in eighty two

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Speaker 1: with the absolute most bull cut Jim Carrey, dumb and dumber,

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Speaker 1: Lloyd Christmas Woody from Toy Story, Danny Nichols, Danny Penny's

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Speaker 1: an occasional Danny Dimes. It's coming in against the Jacks

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Speaker 1: D that made Herbert Herbie Hancock justin Herbert j h

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Speaker 1: completion percentage and throw a pick. They made Matt Ryan

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Speaker 1: throw three interceptions with a thirty four QB. Are almost

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Speaker 1: thought about retiring to go hang out with his family.

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Speaker 1: That's how bad he performed at aolicing percentage against the Jags.

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Speaker 1: D Jalen Hurts didn't throw a touchdown against the Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: D that went up fourteen nothing on him, throw a

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Speaker 1: pick by the way first half against the undefeated Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Mills not worth talking about, but for what it's worth,

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Speaker 1: that unwatchable Texans game didn't throw a touchdown either, only

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Speaker 1: wentz and Last week, Matt Ryan and utter desperation ten

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Speaker 1: games to prep. Did they perform quarterback wise well against

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Speaker 1: the Jacks d as Jacks D I believe is already

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Speaker 1: ahead of the curve at two and four, and I

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Speaker 1: believe is going to cause Daniel Jones and this array.

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Speaker 1: And they've been a pretty serviceable rush defense to this point.

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Speaker 1: Can they stop a number one running team? I think

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Speaker 1: they can help them hold them at Bay And to me,

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Speaker 1: we have a more talented team. We get a home team.

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Speaker 1: Normally a team that's winless at another place doesn't hold

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Speaker 1: that much merit. Much different rosters, completely different period of time.

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Speaker 1: But in the state of Florida, Miami, Tampa and Jacksonville,

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Speaker 1: you will watch teams go down there and go Scooba

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Speaker 1: Steve on there. They go down and there's no explanation.

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Speaker 1: Half the time Rogers has had awful outings in Florida.

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Speaker 1: We've seen it in Jacksonville. We've seen it in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: We saw what happened to Buffalo. They're gasping for air,

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Speaker 1: the cramping, like me, they don't stretch their armstrings that

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Speaker 1: can play sixty minutes. Jacksonville was in Miami. I'm just saying,

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Speaker 1: Florida is it's a heck of a place to try

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Speaker 1: to go win a football game. I got the Jacks

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Speaker 1: minus three nets stop. I'm making you wait again, Chiefs

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Speaker 1: Niners is pick three, pick two right now. And this

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Speaker 1: is as unglamorous as me on a Sunday morning off

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Speaker 1: a twelve hours Saturday sports betting bender Washington Commanders plus

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Speaker 1: five and a half at home FedEx Field. Taylor, Hi,

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Speaker 1: NICKI ouch out your run? My Hi NICKI who comes

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Speaker 1: in for an injured Wentz. And it is the sole

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Speaker 1: reason I'm taking this team because if it was Wentz,

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Speaker 1: I backed them over the Bears, and it was. It

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Speaker 1: was more painful than reading the dictionary for pleasure. That's

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Speaker 1: how painful it was taking the Commanders. But here's the thing.

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Speaker 1: Riverboat Ronnie Rivera is excited about this low key high

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Speaker 1: key went as a turnover machine. Keys dysfunctional and for

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Speaker 1: some reason, the pockets just collapse on number eleven. But

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Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke, he comes in. He started six team games

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Speaker 1: for this team. This is a backup quarterback, but he's

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Speaker 1: got real game experience. Twenty tugs, fifteen interceptions. But I

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Speaker 1: did go to the board. I went. I went to

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Speaker 1: go see where the money is and the money is

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Speaker 1: overwhelmingly on the Commanders to cover. I'm not saying they're

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Speaker 1: gonna beat the Packers. I'm saying they're going to cover.

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Speaker 1: This Washington defense, believe it or not, is peskier than

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Speaker 1: you think. Number one team in the least amount of

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Speaker 1: broken packles. I used that stat last week against the Commanders,

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Speaker 1: and look against the Bears, and that came down to

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Speaker 1: one yard. It wasn't a catch at the one, but

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Speaker 1: it came down to one yard form tackling. Yes, it

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Speaker 1: still matters, just like defense in the NBA. You just

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Speaker 1: don't see it a lot. Then you add the element

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Speaker 1: in of what Washington gets to inherit on their field

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Speaker 1: from a Green Bay offense perspective, and I did a

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Speaker 1: deep dive on this Green Bay offense because I got

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Speaker 1: futures on Green Bay, and I am flabbergasting in their

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Speaker 1: last six quarters of offense. In their last six quarters

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Speaker 1: verse the Jets zero three seven in zero versus the

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Speaker 1: Giants in the second half zero points in a safety.

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Speaker 1: So their last six quarters of offense, the most points

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Speaker 1: they had in a quarter was seven. They had three

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Speaker 1: trolling at the beer pong goose eggs. They had a

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Speaker 1: defensive safety and a baby back Mason Crosby field goal.

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Speaker 1: Here's where it gets even worse. What is Lafleur doing? Globo, Jim, Pete, Matt,

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Speaker 1: whatever your name is, you're killing me average Joe. Aaron

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Speaker 1: Jones had nine carries on nineteen yards. He said thirteen

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Speaker 1: carries on sixty three yards in the previous game against

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Speaker 1: the Giants. That's twenty four carries in two games for

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Speaker 1: a pro bowlder getting twelve touches on average. They've only

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Speaker 1: carried the ball forty times in two weeks. They cannot

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Speaker 1: move the ball in the air. Aaron Rodgers has had

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Speaker 1: his worst number since he was at Cow, and he

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Speaker 1: had good numbers at Cow and the Packers in first half,

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Speaker 1: first halfs I'm not seeing any urgency. And then defensively,

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Speaker 1: defensively coming off of New York Jets embarrassment at Lambo,

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Speaker 1: you give a fourteen and a third and ten in

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Speaker 1: the fourth. Go look at the numbers. These teams are

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Speaker 1: very down the middle statistically points four points against. This

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Speaker 1: is a number play. Sometimes when you get backup quarterbacks

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Speaker 1: like the Saints, they come in they cover certain games

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Speaker 1: they shouldn't have like they covered. If you got them

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Speaker 1: at three and a half. I didn't. I took many

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Speaker 1: at minus two and a half and on the money

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Speaker 1: line in the London game. But there's certain numbers you

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Speaker 1: want to play. This is a number you want to play.

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Speaker 1: Is backed up by pros versus jokes. Washington, Hi Captain

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Speaker 1: plus five and a half. All right, now we get

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Speaker 1: to the Chiefs. The Chiefs are minus two and a

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Speaker 1: half at San Francisco. The whole world on Kansas City.

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Speaker 1: And you know what, I've said this on the pod

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Speaker 1: multiple times before, and I will dance again the same sentiment.

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Speaker 1: I don't care that I'm on the public side for

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Speaker 1: this one. I really don't. There's certain games I do.

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Speaker 1: Kansas City public was on Kansas City down in Tampa.

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Speaker 1: What happened? A forty one piece? I hurt your grown

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Speaker 1: man feelings forty one piece. Yes, I know San Francisco's

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Speaker 1: defense they come in fourteen point eight points per game.

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Speaker 1: But did you see the game that I simply didn't

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Speaker 1: take free money from the Atlanta Falcons plus five and

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Speaker 1: a half last week six and a half? Excuse me

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Speaker 1: at home against the Niners. I mean that was embarrassing.

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Speaker 1: In pay are resn for the San Francisco for I mean, honestly,

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Speaker 1: you come in what kind of game plan? I'm fading

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Speaker 1: the Packers because I don't believe in the game plan

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Speaker 1: to this point, and I'm fading the Niners this weekend

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Speaker 1: because you ran the ball in a team that shouldn't

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Speaker 1: be throwing the football more than times a game. In

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Speaker 1: my humble opinion, you run the ball seven times with

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Speaker 1: your running back Jeff Wilson for Measley yards and you

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Speaker 1: give Jimmy g forty one attempts? What are you doing?

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Speaker 1: What are you doing that to me? I don't know

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Speaker 1: what happened. Was it an overcompensation? Was it because of

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Speaker 1: Jimmy G Curson out the play calling? In the eleven

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Speaker 1: time embarrassing lost at Denver? I don't know, but all

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Speaker 1: I know is the Niners scored in one quarter against

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Speaker 1: the Falcons. What was the game plan, my guy? What

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Speaker 1: was the game plan? Because you gotta go a gainst.

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Speaker 1: The number one offense in the NFL, H clearing my

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Speaker 1: throat pun intended twenty nine eight points per game. They

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Speaker 1: come in top four and passing top five and overall yards.

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Speaker 1: I know they've given up over twenty points defensively. Getting

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Speaker 1: a shootout with Sir Patrick. Another nugget for your noggin.

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Speaker 1: How many times has Patrick Mahomes lost two in a row?

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Speaker 1: I went back and look, I went to stump the

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Speaker 1: schwab dot org. I went to ask jeeves, I went

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Speaker 1: to scat muse. No one could give me nothing. So

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Speaker 1: I rolled up my sleeves like an adult, and I

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Speaker 1: went and got it myself. The answer. It's astonished two

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Speaker 1: two times in three years and change. Sir Patrick has

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Speaker 1: lost two games in a row, and one of them

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Speaker 1: was a Ravens thirty five s nap and lost, and

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Speaker 1: they losed the Visional game the next week. Didn't lose

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Speaker 1: back to back at all last year, one time in

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Speaker 1: and then once I just alluded to. So you tell

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Speaker 1: me Patrick Mahomes awful loss or team that's allowing Jimmy

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Speaker 1: Garoppolo throw the ball forty one times? Last thing, I'll

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Speaker 1: say the Niners defense is banged up, banged up. I

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Speaker 1: believe they were short six, possibly seven starters on defense.

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Speaker 1: No matter how good your defense is, no matter how

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Speaker 1: good a sala could be Orion's could be. At scheme

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Speaker 1: in the last several years for sand Frand you cannot

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Speaker 1: make up for seven defensive players out. They hope to

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Speaker 1: get posted back. They hope because if they don't, it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a long day in San Francisco. Grab go,

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Speaker 1: grab yourself some Garrett Delli before you fly out after this,

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Speaker 1: how you get a knee? Some Globo Jim comfort food.

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Speaker 1: We keep it pushing. Two picks left, We wrapid fire.

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Atlanta Falcons on the same narrative

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Speaker 1: with the five and a half on the road against

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Speaker 1: since again the number I really like embarrassing performance for

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Speaker 1: San Francisco last week. This is the loan team on

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Speaker 1: Mount Rushmore, the number one team undefeated against the spread,

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Speaker 1: the Dirty Birds three and oh against the spread on

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Speaker 1: the road, third best rushing attack in the NFL. On

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Speaker 1: the crowd with who Cornell Patterson, Marcus Mariota and a

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Speaker 1: pack of Skittles, well a sign another butters running back.

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Speaker 1: You beat San Francisco out right, You come back and

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Speaker 1: cover backdoor against Tampa. You beat Cleveland, you handle Seattle

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Speaker 1: in a ruckis environment. And this is about again a number,

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Speaker 1: but not just the five and a half. This is

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Speaker 1: also about what the Bengals can or can't do offensively.

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Speaker 1: I read this to you when I took the Ravens

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Speaker 1: two weeks ago over the Bengals. I won the game

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Speaker 1: money line. I lost it against the spread on three

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Speaker 1: points spread. Vegas is six Since two thousand twenty, the

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Speaker 1: Bengals are sixteen and four, sixteen and four when scoring

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Speaker 1: twenty four points or more when they score twenty three

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Speaker 1: or fewer one seven team and one one seventeen in one.

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Speaker 1: The trend continues this season. In their three wins twenty

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Speaker 1: seven points or more. Dolphins jack when they lose, cannot

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Speaker 1: beat Cooper Rush, cannot beat Mitchi troop biscuits, Mitchell BLUs

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Speaker 1: a week one, seventeen points, twenty points, and seventeen points

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Speaker 1: in their three losses. Do they break twenty four points

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Speaker 1: against this Falcons team? No they do not. No, they

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Speaker 1: do not. Because Atlanta stylistically watch the games. They slow

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Speaker 1: it down. They run it down your throat. And Marcus

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Speaker 1: Mariota completed of his passes last week. Him and t

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Speaker 1: Lawrence were taking two lads in all the land that

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Speaker 1: pentage a week prior efficiency and effectiveness and ego list football.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of beautiful to watch. I will fade a

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Speaker 1: Bengals team that again. And I heard this out there

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Speaker 1: Saints last week, fully healthy, Lattimore out, couple of key

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Speaker 1: pieces out. Do they ball on the Saints like that?

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. They were down nine They had

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Speaker 1: to come back nine points down against the Saints with

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Speaker 1: Andy Dalton shout out calling the beige water pistol. We'll

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Speaker 1: take the points here on a number play and we

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Speaker 1: wrap it up. I can't believe I'm picking two games

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Speaker 1: in the a f C South. I can't. I can't

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Speaker 1: not take it. I gotta fade the Colts. I gotta

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Speaker 1: take the Titans at home off of by rested, restored,

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Speaker 1: refreshed two weeks or prepare for a Colts team. They

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Speaker 1: just took down and have taken down four straight times

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Speaker 1: since twelve. They have beaten the Indianapolis Colts with Philip Rivers,

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Speaker 1: with Carson Wentz, with Matt Ryan. It does matter. Jerry

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Speaker 1: Indie comes in with a winning record and a hundred

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Speaker 1: and three points. It's the fewest points with the winning

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Speaker 1: record in franchise history. They are the Castanza opposite to

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Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars. This team is not in UPO five club.

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Speaker 1: They have not run the football all season. Matt Ryan

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Speaker 1: is he's impressing us the last two weeks because honestly,

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Speaker 1: I thought he was washed. But here's what this game

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Speaker 1: comes down to. This game comes down to what Tennessee

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Speaker 1: has done this season so far, and it's red zone efficiency.

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Speaker 1: They leave the NFL anytime a team leads the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and something you need to seriously pay attention. The Tennessee

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Speaker 1: Titans have a ninety two point three percent red zone

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Speaker 1: efficiency this season. Point three they have scored a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: This is astonishing, Basil the score touches down in a

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Speaker 1: leven straight trips, a leven straight trips and the Bears

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Speaker 1: can't score once. It's the longest shriek this season. The

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Speaker 1: next streak even closer that as the Atlanta Falcons. In

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Speaker 1: the red zone, they've done five straight touchdowns eleven straight

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Speaker 1: two that's a field goal or a touchdown, and then

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Speaker 1: eleven straight putties. I also love that Derrick Henry has

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Speaker 1: rushed for no more yards versus any other team in

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Speaker 1: the league than against the Colts. Eleven fifty nine yards

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Speaker 1: against the Colts, the most person any opponent franchise history,

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Speaker 1: fourth most. But I love what the Titans do when

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Speaker 1: they play winning football, and it's really stick to their identity.

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Speaker 1: And I go back, I look at the box score,

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Speaker 1: I look at the stats, I watched the highlights. I

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Speaker 1: really try to understand what happened in the Colts game,

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Speaker 1: and they just stuck to a script, a scripted first

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Speaker 1: half game plan that got him up, that gave Tannehilla

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Speaker 1: seventeen two tugs no picks performance and gave Derrick Henry

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Speaker 1: one fourteen and a tug on the ground and spread

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Speaker 1: out three receptions, three receptions, four and four between your

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Speaker 1: top four receivers. Matt Ryan in that Tennessee game at

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Speaker 1: home by the way of Lucas Oil and I N

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Speaker 1: T two fumbles, one loss, two and JT went twenty

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Speaker 1: rushes for forty two yards. We still don't know what

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Speaker 1: his health is. The Titans have a top five rushing defense.

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Speaker 1: There's only four teams ahead of them that whole teams

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Speaker 1: under a hundred yards per game on the ground through

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Speaker 1: six weeks. The Titans are five. So what I'm telling

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Speaker 1: you is, I'm putting my money on a Titans team

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Speaker 1: that is essentially gonna have to have Matt Ryan beat him.

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Speaker 1: And I do not trust Matt Ryan. I also love

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Speaker 1: the spot and again, it's tough to be a team twice,

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Speaker 1: tough to be a team hacked five times in a row.

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Speaker 1: But I love I love the narrative that the Colts

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Speaker 1: come in off two wins feeling themselves, but the Titans,

358
00:23:56,920 --> 00:24:01,600
Speaker 1: who have their number come in they hum in in

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00:24:01,760 --> 00:24:06,800
Speaker 1: just eight charming dominant streak here against the cold. So

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Speaker 1: that's how we wrap the pot, baby, money line Monica.

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Speaker 1: If this is not a winning week, I gotta really

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Speaker 1: really go back to the lab because I feel superb

363
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: about these picks. Jack's minus three over the Giants, Falcons

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00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,280
Speaker 1: plus five and a half covering on the road against

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00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,800
Speaker 1: the Bengals, Commanders covering plus five and a half at

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Speaker 1: home against the Packers, Niners catching an l Chiefs covering

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Speaker 1: minus two and a half on the road, and of course,

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00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:53,959
Speaker 1: last but not least, Titans, Jags, Falcons, Commanders, Chiefs Jacks

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00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:57,159
Speaker 1: minus three, Chiefs minus two and a half, Washington plus

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00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 1: five and a half, Falcons plus five and al half

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00:25:00,240 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: tightens my two and a half. All pis our Action

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Speaker 1: Network Sports gambled with money Line, Monica. It's always a pleasure.

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Speaker 1: Go Padres my San Diego Padres this weekend. I will

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00:25:10,520 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 1: be in Philly in attendance because it's only the first

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00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 1: time since ninety eight when I was in third grade

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00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,800
Speaker 1: watching them in the NLCS. No big deal. As always,

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00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:25,000
Speaker 1: don't forget the hug your mother's real smooth FANDU add

378
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,000
Speaker 1: on the way out. Football season is heating up, and

379
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,720
Speaker 1: now is the perfect time to download FanDuel America's number

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Speaker 1: You already know what I like. Jacksonville dominates the team.

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00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: Man Baby humbles him. I have the Chiefs going to

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00:25:53,119 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: San fran and covering. Should I say the two and

387
00:25:57,000 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: a half? That is really to me as Steve off

388
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: a case he lost, and I just think the Packers

389
00:26:03,320 --> 00:26:06,040
Speaker 1: team cannot figure it out. I gotta take the Commanders

390
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 1: at five and a half on a pure number play

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