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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast. Boy, do we have a gift

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Speaker 1: for you.

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Speaker 2: Visions of Super Bowls still dancing the heads of these teams.

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Speaker 1: If we make it through Deceimper, everything's gonna be all right.

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Speaker 3: I know.

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Speaker 1: If we make it through simple, you'll be fine.

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Speaker 4: What's up, everybody, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm

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Speaker 4: your host, Chris Raybaon and this is a very special

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Speaker 4: NFL Week seventeen betting preview. Happy Holidays to everyone out there.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna build a holiday six pack up against the

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Speaker 4: spread bets with the help of my co host, the

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 1: Happy Holidays. How's it going.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays to everybody. Another losing week

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Speaker 3: in the NFL. This is not my year.

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Speaker 1: That was worse.

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Speaker 3: My only went on Sunday was Greaters as a favorite. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: it's been it's been a weird dear bad, bad handicapping

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Speaker 3: and then just one or two dogs every week that

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Speaker 3: I have just find ways to not cover. It's been

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Speaker 3: like that all year. I got at the Jets. I

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Speaker 3: don't know how they didn't cover that game. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they just couldn't get a fourth down and turnovers and miskicks.

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Speaker 3: It's a story of their year. I mean, I guess

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Speaker 3: I get what I deserve for betting them. Hopefully you

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Speaker 3: can close out strong, march on and try to find

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Speaker 3: winners for this week. Excited for this slakes. We got

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Speaker 3: action starting on Wednesday, which is pretty crazy into the

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Speaker 3: stretch run into the playoffs. So hopefully we can get

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Speaker 3: hot to close out the year.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and we'll preview the Wednesday games and a Thursday

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Speaker 4: night football game. Then we'll jump into the six pack.

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Speaker 1: And if you are a van Merry Christmas.

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Speaker 4: Before we jump into the Christmas games, if you're interested

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Speaker 4: in betting the NBA games on Christmas, be sure to

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Speaker 4: check out our NBA podcast buckets. Their Christmas Day Betting

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Speaker 4: Spectacular episode is out right now. That's a buckets wherever

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Speaker 4: you listen to podcasts.

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Speaker 3: Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. And boy do we have

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Speaker 3: a gift for you.

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Speaker 1: It's a Christmas Day special.

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Speaker 4: You got a couple of Christmas Day games. The first

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Speaker 4: one is the Chiefs at the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh is

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Speaker 4: plus three, the total is forty three and a half.

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Speaker 4: That's at one pm Eastern on Netflix and Stuck. I

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Speaker 4: know you're gonna have something on this game, so we're

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Speaker 4: actually going to table this one and jump right into

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Speaker 4: Ravens at the Houston Texans. Plus five and a half

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Speaker 4: are the Texans at home. The total forty six and

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Speaker 4: a half. That's four thirty Christmas Day on Netflix, four

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Speaker 4: thirty Eastern on Netflix. Stuck, you know you're always pretty

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Speaker 4: dounge in with the Ravens. We saw Houston lose more

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Speaker 4: pieces on offense, Tank Dell, Shaq Mason.

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Speaker 1: How do you handicap this one?

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Speaker 3: The one team I've had a good reader on all

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Speaker 3: years in the Ravens did have them last week. I

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Speaker 3: also had the under which really had no chance after

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Speaker 3: Joey Porter got hurt and the Steelers just were down

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Speaker 3: to nothing in the secondary. The Texans have a ton

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Speaker 3: of injuries too. This game's pretty difficult to any My

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Speaker 3: initial lean is under, but with these two quarterbacks indoors,

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Speaker 3: here's where the uncertainty lies. I think the Texans were

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Speaker 3: going to beat the Chiefs last week, and then the

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Speaker 3: injuries hit, which were bad. I mean, Tank Dell, who

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Speaker 3: was destroying the Chiefs, gets hurt. They lose a couple

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Speaker 3: more offensive linemen and then Jimmy Ward that injury is

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Speaker 3: so big because they're already down Petrie and you're already

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Speaker 3: shifting guys around with the rookies all over. That was tough.

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Speaker 3: So now you're in a super short week and you

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Speaker 3: have to address your offensive issues with you know, offensive

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Speaker 3: line injuries, no Tank Dell. You get Matchi back, but

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Speaker 3: just without Dell, this offense has no juice at all.

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Speaker 3: And then on the back end without Now and you're

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Speaker 3: already without Peachery, that hurts. There's some uncertainty with the

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Speaker 3: Ravens on their offense as far as injuries are concerned.

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Speaker 3: I do think their defense overall is trending up. So

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Speaker 3: my initial lean is under I do agree with the

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Speaker 3: move on the Ravens because just these injuries for the

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Speaker 3: Texans on a short week, I think their offense now

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Speaker 3: is just extremely limited. It is tough to run in

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Speaker 3: the Ravens, and from an incentive standpoint, Ravens still into

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Speaker 3: division hunt the Texans, like, what is their goal the

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Speaker 3: rest of the year. Do they want to try and

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Speaker 3: just air it out? I don't know, or I just

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Speaker 3: want to make sure that they're healthy because they're in

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Speaker 3: they won their division there's really no upside and they're

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Speaker 3: banged up, so maybe they just go through the motions

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Speaker 3: here and just run, because I thought they had a

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Speaker 3: good game plan last week and that's what I was

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Speaker 3: hoping for, come out and throw, and then the injuries

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Speaker 3: just hit. So it's tough. It's tough game with all

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Speaker 3: the injury on certainty, and I'm not sure how the

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Speaker 3: tech we'll play to us. But I agree with the

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Speaker 3: move on the Ravens. A little too expensive now, and

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Speaker 3: my initial thought would be under which I might end

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Speaker 3: up playing small. I just got to see who ends

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Speaker 3: up being in It's still too early to tell this week,

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Speaker 3: since we're recording this early Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Texas.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it hurts the moves, you know, your safety ward,

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Speaker 4: but they're generally well schemed on defense, so I would

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Speaker 4: lean under as well. This is actually a luck under.

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Speaker 4: Our luck totals this year are sixty five point seven percent,

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Speaker 4: thirty three, seventeen and one, so if people want to

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Speaker 4: maybe go that direction, and yeah, I would lean Ravens too, because,

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Speaker 4: like you said, Houston, I don't really know what they're

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Speaker 4: trying to do here. They we've actually tracked twenty two

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Speaker 4: sharp moves on the Baltimore Ravens. That's a I don't

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Speaker 4: know if I've seen more in terms of the sharp

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Speaker 4: signals in our action app than twenty two in a

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Speaker 4: while or if ever. So there's definitely some people out

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Speaker 4: there that think that they're kind of thinking along those

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Speaker 4: same lines. So yeah, I just don't see how you're

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Speaker 4: going to stop get enough stops on Lamar with this

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Speaker 4: defense banged up.

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Speaker 1: But I don't really see how you get to score points.

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Speaker 4: I mean, the Ravens defense is a lot, but they're

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Speaker 4: above averaging pasty now like they're fourteen.

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Speaker 3: In Yeah, put Hamilton back in safety, uh, and then

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Speaker 3: you know Zay Flowers is he gonna go?

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Speaker 1: I think? But it sounds like maintenance.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I've never known a short week, and they're

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Speaker 3: not fully healthy on the offensive line. But yeah, I

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Speaker 3: think under and Ravens is the look. But the Ravens

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Speaker 3: have obviously taken some money here. Oh, Merry Christmas.

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Speaker 1: That's unbelievable.

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Speaker 3: He just did.

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Speaker 1: That's sick.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, probably like a thirty fourth seven. I mean, I

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Speaker 4: don't Yeah, I don't know if the Texans want this.

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Speaker 1: Honestly, I had this.

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Speaker 3: Spot all year circle for the Texans to story the

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Speaker 3: year like playoff revenge at home as a team that

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Speaker 3: I thought was gonna be trending up to at the

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Speaker 3: end of the year, and the opposite's true. And a

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Speaker 3: lot a lot of that is just injuries. I can't

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Speaker 3: see them making a deep run now. The injuries are

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Speaker 3: too much to overcome.

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Speaker 1: En Ravens leeen under on that one. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: the Thursday night game.

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Speaker 2: Ody you this this is the NFL football, but this

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Speaker 2: is football in the in the fits of the Big West,

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Speaker 2: Chicago Soldier Stadium. This is what it's all about. If

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Speaker 2: you can't get out in the elements, shouldn't even go

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Speaker 2: to the game.

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Speaker 4: Got the Seahawks going to Chicago to take on the Bears.

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Speaker 4: The Bears are plus three and a half at home,

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Speaker 4: the total was forty three and a half. I could

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Speaker 4: get some weather here with maybe a little bit of

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Speaker 4: rains and winds this Chicago wait in the year, but.

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Speaker 1: This Bears team, I would like this.

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Speaker 3: Every game.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, they come out I mean they're coming out

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Speaker 1: more unprepared under this Thomas Brown and they aren't at

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Speaker 1: eber flu. So it's really tough with them.

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Speaker 4: Do they you know, do they get going and now

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Speaker 4: there their tackle is out Braxton Jones, which Cale Williams

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Speaker 4: already running for his life in Seattle's defense has been

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Speaker 4: getting better, getting more pushed up front, and then even

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Speaker 4: their you know, their safety's back. So it could be

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Speaker 4: a game where Chicago doesn't get much offense. So what

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Speaker 4: do you do you think about this one?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know to think. I mean, generally speaking,

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Speaker 3: in the past, I love Week seventeen and Week eighteen.

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Speaker 3: Some of my best weeks are in Week seventeen. We

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Speaker 3: usually what I do, it's nothing overly complicated. I just

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Speaker 3: fade the teams that need to win against the teams

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Speaker 3: that have nothing to play for. And the reason for

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Speaker 3: that they're still professionals and they're still going to try.

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Speaker 3: And then there's just a huge premium in the market

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Speaker 3: for the teams that need to win, and the lines

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Speaker 3: are over and play like the games this week that

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Speaker 3: fit that bill you have. You know, Chargers, Patriots, Seahawks, Bears, Cardinals, Rams, Jets, Bills,

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Speaker 3: Bills don't really need to win. But that's Olts, Giants, Panthers, Bucks,

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Speaker 3: and Dolphins, Browns. I think that's it. But the problem

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Speaker 3: isn't some of these cases. And I like this line.

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Speaker 3: I make a two and I make this slightly under

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Speaker 3: a Fueld goal, so I show a little bit of

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Speaker 3: value on the Bears. But I did last week too

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Speaker 3: and the week before, and I don't know for whatever

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Speaker 3: reason this year that none of these dog spots hit

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Speaker 3: and so maybe it just doesn't matter this season. But

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Speaker 3: I do think the line is a little overinflated. But

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Speaker 3: I just have too many concerns for the Bears, and

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Speaker 3: from what I've seen, I'll be able to if I

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Speaker 3: like the Bears, I'll be able to get a better

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Speaker 3: number live. They just come out. They're down seventeen to

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Speaker 3: nothing every game. I think they do miss Eberflus on defense.

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Speaker 1: Yep.

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Speaker 3: And like you saw that happen with Salah, you know

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Speaker 3: the first couple of games where he was gone, and

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Speaker 3: then I think now Thomas Brown is in over his

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Speaker 3: head trying to do both offensive coordinator and head coach.

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Speaker 3: And you know, the Seahawks defense is trending up. I

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Speaker 3: thought they played really well outside of the just like

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Speaker 3: dumb penalties, there was that one bust to play, but

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Speaker 3: they played really well against the Vikings last week and

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Speaker 3: then you know, outside of that Packers game, this defense

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Speaker 3: is this trend line is going way up, so it

200
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Speaker 3: might be a rough day for Caleb Williams and company.

201
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Speaker 3: So I don't know the way I see this playing out.

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Speaker 3: The Seahawks probably jump out and then it's probably the

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Speaker 3: Bears put up points in garbage time. Maybe they get

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Speaker 3: in the back door. I don't know. I mean it's

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Speaker 3: the numbers wise, I show a little bit of value

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Speaker 3: on the Bears, but I'm tired of flushing money down

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Speaker 3: the toilet on them.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, kind of feels like a little bit of an

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Speaker 4: under game. But the Bears defense is gone downhill too,

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Speaker 4: so it's hard to even trust down But I mean

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Speaker 4: it should be an undergame.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, yeah, g know, not the same indoors and

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Speaker 3: weather that offense.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, they're going more heavy personnel. They're going more

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Speaker 1: heavy personnel, so it should be an undergame. But you know,

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Speaker 1: if they can, we'll see who's healthy are running back

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Speaker 1: because if you know, Bears have been terrible against the run.

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Speaker 4: If seat, if you get his run game going, which

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Speaker 4: pretty much hasn't happened most of the year.

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Speaker 1: Then that would not bode well. But yeah, I would

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Speaker 1: lean under, and I would lean Seahawks because the Bears

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Speaker 1: just don't. There's just one of these seas they just

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Speaker 1: don't cover.

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Speaker 3: It's really insane. This year, Like I said, this is

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Speaker 3: like two thousand and nine and it never changed the

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Speaker 3: whole year. So don't they don't just assume that it

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Speaker 3: will some years just like this, And we're talking small

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Speaker 3: sample sizes, but there's just these teams every week that

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Speaker 3: just don't cover, and then they just find ways to

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Speaker 3: not cover. Jets, Bears are one of them. Doesn't matter

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Speaker 3: how much money these teams take, it's just and then

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Speaker 3: there's certain teams that just cover every week. It's it's

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Speaker 3: pretty wild because in the NFL it's usually never like that.

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Speaker 3: It's insane. But I think I do think.

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Speaker 4: I do think this year, Like I have to do

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Speaker 4: a deeper dive, but I do think this year there's

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Speaker 4: like there is there are things going on on the

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Speaker 4: field that could be kind of changing the environment of

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Speaker 4: just you know, the modeling the sport as it's as

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Speaker 4: a whole, like the starting field position from these new kickoffs.

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Speaker 4: You know, everyone's getting everyone's getting like like if you're

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Speaker 4: a let's say you're a favorite, you you're a favorite,

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Speaker 4: you probably have a better offense because offense is more

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Speaker 4: predictable and thus goes into the you know, numbers more.

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Speaker 4: If you're a favorite and you have a better offense

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Speaker 4: and you're starting like the thirty thirty five, like I

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Speaker 4: looked at, there's the most field goal attempts ever this year, Like,

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Speaker 4: so you could easily get a field goal, but teams

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Speaker 4: don't even want. Now, the good teams, they're not even

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Speaker 4: like just settling for field goals.

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Speaker 1: They don't want pre point leads. So they're going forward

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Speaker 1: on four down to going forward on two. And what

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Speaker 1: does that do?

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Speaker 4: That means there's less avenues for like an underdog to

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Speaker 4: you know, get an edge by you know, being more

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Speaker 4: risky because no, it's turning ball over these days, like

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Speaker 4: every the turnover through a record low. So yeah, there

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Speaker 4: might be just the environment for you know, the favorite

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Speaker 4: in the dog or whoever. It is just kind of

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Speaker 4: shifting a little bit, and books just haven't quite adjusted either,

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Speaker 4: and like everyone's kind of just trying to figure it

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Speaker 4: out as they go.

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Speaker 3: Now that's true. Yeah, I definitely got to do a

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Speaker 3: deep dive. I mean, they're also is just sometimes anomalous years. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so there's just a lot of noise in it. Turnovers

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Speaker 3: from the teams I've got on. I wouldn't know turnos

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Speaker 3: are down, but that's the thing.

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Speaker 4: It's like they're they're down pretty much to record low.

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Speaker 4: So it's like if you do commit a turnover, it's

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Speaker 4: like even worse. Now, you know, It's like it's so yeah,

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Speaker 4: it doesn't make sense.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 1: But all right, let's jump into our Week seventeen Holiday

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Speaker 1: six pack. There's deeper action. Let's crack open the Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack. All right, forty seven thirty six, I'm upstuck.

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Speaker 4: You are tripping into the lead. Two points for our first,

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Speaker 4: two point for the third point for our total. In

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Speaker 4: the next segment, you're up first that week seventeen. Howdy,

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Speaker 4: six packs?

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Speaker 1: Where you going?

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Speaker 3: All right? For my first pick of the week seventeen

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Speaker 3: Holiday six pack, I'm going with the Pittsburgh Steelers plus

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Speaker 3: three at home against the Kansas City Chiefs. I use

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Speaker 3: a perfect Bilo spot on the Steelers after two straight

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Speaker 3: road losses against the Eagles and the Ravens, and mind you,

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Speaker 3: they were extremely beat up in those games. George Pickens,

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Speaker 3: who is the key to unlock this entire offense was out.

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Speaker 3: It's to a full go yesterday. I'm assuming he's gonna play.

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Speaker 3: That's massive, especially considering this Kansas City defense is very

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Speaker 3: vulnerable and you might not know it from their past

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Speaker 3: couple of results, but if you look at the trend

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Speaker 3: line on their past defense, it is not good. Jalen

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Speaker 3: Watson went down, they have other injuries. This secondary is

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Speaker 3: extremely vulnerable. Now if you go back a couple of

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Speaker 3: weeks ago, you just had you had Winston turned They

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Speaker 3: had turned the ball over six times and they didn't

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Speaker 3: have him the Joku, which was big. Last week, the

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Speaker 3: Texans offense woke up until Tankdell got hurt and they

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Speaker 3: lost a couple offensive line. The Texans offense was looked

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Speaker 3: as good as it has in all season in Kansas

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Speaker 3: City outdoors. This is an offense that never does anything outdoors,

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Speaker 3: that hasn't done anything all year, and you know, tanked

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Speaker 3: out six catches for one hundred yards and seven targets

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Speaker 3: and basically in the first half. And then he got

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Speaker 3: hurt and then the offense went into a shell. So

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Speaker 3: this this offense, this defense is vulnerable. It's beat up.

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Speaker 3: I'm not even sure if Chris Jones will go on

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Speaker 3: a short week list is questionable. I don't think he's

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Speaker 3: gonna play. That can't be overstated enough. If you watch

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Speaker 3: some of the Chiefs games and just watched certain high

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Speaker 3: leverage plays. There was a play last two weeks ago

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Speaker 3: he had four guys block him. Four guys that that

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Speaker 3: just it frees up everybody else. And then obviously what

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Speaker 3: he leads, I think he leads the NFL and pressures.

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Speaker 3: It's the highest rated into you. I mean, he's the

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Speaker 3: dominant force. You don't have him in there and you

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Speaker 3: have issues on the back end. I think Russ can

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Speaker 3: move the ball here and then the other side. Last week,

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Speaker 3: the Steelers defense had no chance against the mar because

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Speaker 3: they were down to back up safety. First, I think

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Speaker 3: when did when did Porter get hurt the first drive?

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Speaker 3: First quarter?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, very early in the game, early in the game.

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Speaker 3: And then you're down of two backup corners and they

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Speaker 3: had no chance against the Ravens. But they should get

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Speaker 3: Elliott back, they should get Jackson back. I don't Porter

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Speaker 3: is not going to play, but they should be able

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Speaker 3: to get pressure.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 3: They the Chiefs have kicked out Toney to left tackle

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Speaker 3: and it has helped a little bit, but they're still

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Speaker 3: allowing a ton of pressure. I know he has He's

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Speaker 3: allowed like I think one sack. Mahomes has been under fire.

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Speaker 3: The run blocking is worse now. Caliendo does not grade

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Speaker 3: out well at left guard. He've weakened your You know

336
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Speaker 3: you take him an all pro left guard, kicked him

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Speaker 3: out the left tackle. You still have issues at right tackle.

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Speaker 3: This Steelers passed rush at home raw ross spot for Tomlin.

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Speaker 3: I think this line should be one one and a

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Speaker 3: half Tomlin for what it's worth twenty. We know he's

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Speaker 3: the most profitable coach against the spread as a underdog

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Speaker 3: in the NFL stry as a home dog twenty six

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Speaker 3: and three against the spread when getting at least a

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Speaker 3: field goal eleven two and three after a loss, ten

345
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Speaker 3: and two straight up and against the spread as a

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Speaker 3: home dog ten straight up and against the spread. I

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Speaker 3: think Steelers win this game. I think the Chris Jones

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Speaker 3: potential absence is huge. I think the Steeers will be

349
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Speaker 3: able to get pressure. And it's not like this Chiefs

350
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Speaker 3: passing offense has been overly explosive, like the Ravens to

351
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Speaker 3: take advantage of no porter and the Steelers defense should

352
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Speaker 3: be healthy overall, and then Pickens back. It's just massive,

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Speaker 3: but unlocks this offense can hit some explosive plays, opens

354
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Speaker 3: up everything else for everybody, for everybody else, including Austin,

355
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Speaker 3: who's really breaking out here. They're really using him, just

356
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Speaker 3: like his route tree has expanded, and I liked what

357
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Speaker 3: I've seen from him recently, and now he's going to

358
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Speaker 3: have less attention on him. So I like the Steelers

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Speaker 3: catching field goal at home classic RaRo Tomlin spot.

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Speaker 1: What a raw ron, Mike Tomlin spot.

361
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Speaker 2: We win the game with this crool bodies right here

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Speaker 2: today run the only game to day.

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Speaker 3: She went by two somehow. I mean, they've won fifteen

364
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Speaker 3: straight one possession games, so.

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Speaker 1: People probably would be surprised.

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Speaker 4: But the healthy Pickens, no Chris Jones power anywise, You're

367
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Speaker 4: not showing that much of a sprag between these two teams.

368
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Speaker 4: It's just, you know, the injuries are really massive here

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Speaker 4: and the Steelers have been on the wrong end of it.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought. I thought Arthur Smith was in

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Speaker 1: his bag and Russell Wilson kind of did everything he

372
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Speaker 1: could to mess it.

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Speaker 3: I mean, they got a touch that I got, Michael

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Speaker 3: threw it yeah, I had the Raves of that game.

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Speaker 3: Got lucky in that just watching the game now, Grant,

376
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Speaker 3: I got lucky ause Porter went down and you got

377
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Speaker 3: backup corners. That game changed on the Wilson fumble.

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Speaker 1: Oh yeah, terrible play if he.

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Speaker 3: Goes, if he just slides, you know, they got fourteen

380
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 3: to seven. There, that's a whole different ballgame. And then

381
00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:40,800
Speaker 3: obviously throws the pick six late. So yeah, but they

382
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Speaker 3: should be much healthier even without Porter this week and

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Speaker 3: tom and is a home dog and a row ross

384
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Speaker 3: Spot off two straight road losses. Good good Bylows Cell

385
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Speaker 3: High Spot.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the Chiefs have won two straight covered too straight.

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Speaker 3: They've also had what a plus eight turnover margin and

389
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Speaker 3: benefited from the Chiefs are always going to win these

390
00:19:58,840 --> 00:20:03,359
Speaker 3: close games more times than not, so they have been

391
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Speaker 3: somewhat lucky. You can't say they haven't. I mean the

392
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Speaker 3: Raiders game, the Broncos game, winning on less, so they

393
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Speaker 3: have been. Some of the luck. Where I think they've been

394
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:13,440
Speaker 3: lucky is that people don't talk about enough is injuries

395
00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,760
Speaker 3: on the other team. Like every every week, the teams

396
00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 3: just get these insane, insane injuries on the offensive line,

397
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Speaker 3: key position players, so hopefully the Steelers don't lose like

398
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Speaker 3: their like three starting offensive linemen on the first drive,

399
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:33,200
Speaker 3: and hopefully we get some don't get get some home

400
00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:35,840
Speaker 3: cooking with the calls, and there were some bad calls

401
00:20:35,840 --> 00:20:37,880
Speaker 3: in the Texans last week that changed that game. It's

402
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 3: p I and be holding. So yeah, I think it's

403
00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:42,920
Speaker 3: a good spot for the Steelers.

404
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Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I agree like the Steelers here. I think

405
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Speaker 1: the Chiefs, I mean it's gonna it's gonna come itself,

406
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Speaker 1: Like are they gonna go sixteen and one with just

407
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Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know, they might, but I don't know.

408
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Speaker 4: Let's go to my first pick, the second overall of

409
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Speaker 4: the week, seventeen Howidays six pack going with the Carolina

410
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 4: Panthers plus eight at Tampa Bay since Bryce Young was

411
00:21:10,280 --> 00:21:14,080
Speaker 4: reinserted into the starting lineup. Carolina three and four straight

412
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 4: up six and one against the spread. Their losses are

413
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Speaker 4: by three to these same Bucks, three to the Chiefs,

414
00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:23,160
Speaker 4: six to the Eagles on a game they probably should

415
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,399
Speaker 4: have won, but I think it was a get dropped

416
00:21:25,400 --> 00:21:28,120
Speaker 4: the They had multiple drops on the drive that could

417
00:21:28,119 --> 00:21:30,200
Speaker 4: have won on the game and then they got blown

418
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Speaker 4: out by the Cowboys.

419
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Speaker 1: That was their one loss.

420
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Speaker 4: So I got to ride with these Panthers here they're

421
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 4: just playing a lot better their defense. You know, it's

422
00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:43,160
Speaker 4: still gonna get forged by Bucky Irving and a run game,

423
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:46,480
Speaker 4: but uh, you know, they're they're playing a little bit better.

424
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 4: And Bryce Young, you know, he's moving outside of the pocket.

425
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,640
Speaker 4: He knows when to scramble. Now it's extending plays. So

426
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:54,800
Speaker 4: that's how that's why the Panthers have been able to

427
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 4: play all these close games because they're getting that I

428
00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:00,360
Speaker 4: think they're getting that outside the pocket creation from Bright Young.

429
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:02,320
Speaker 4: And he does have some speed and you know he

430
00:22:02,359 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 4: can get away from people because he's not very big,

431
00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:06,760
Speaker 4: kind of like a Kyler Murray type, so his scram

432
00:22:06,760 --> 00:22:09,359
Speaker 4: wing ability comes in huge. Here Bucks twenty fifth and

433
00:22:09,400 --> 00:22:13,480
Speaker 4: DVA in past defense and Bryce Young, we know the

434
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 4: Bucks like to blitz pretty much the same quarterback when

435
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:18,840
Speaker 4: pressure did not pressured and when blitzed to not witz

436
00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:22,320
Speaker 4: when he's uh not blitzed a seventy seven passer rating.

437
00:22:22,320 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 4: When he's blitzed a seventy five passer rating. Caroline is

438
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:28,320
Speaker 4: about middle of the pack in early down success rate

439
00:22:28,359 --> 00:22:31,679
Speaker 4: on offense since since Bryce Young came back, So uh,

440
00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:35,840
Speaker 4: like the chances to stay with the Bucks. He second

441
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 4: divisional game, first one was already tight. Uh so I

442
00:22:39,359 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 4: mean I was actually surprised.

443
00:22:41,840 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 3: One, Yeah, I was. I won that game.

444
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:47,479
Speaker 4: I was surprised that the Bucks played as bad as

445
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:48,600
Speaker 4: they did against Dallas.

446
00:22:48,640 --> 00:22:51,880
Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought that. It's crazy because so the.

447
00:22:53,560 --> 00:22:58,440
Speaker 4: I don't like, the Panthers were favored against the Cowboys,

448
00:22:58,480 --> 00:23:00,680
Speaker 4: who the Bucks just lost to, and now the Bucks

449
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 4: are minus eight. I'm not saying the Pants that that

450
00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:05,800
Speaker 4: line was probably you know, off, but still like that,

451
00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,399
Speaker 4: just put that into context, you know, like the Bucks

452
00:23:08,400 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 4: go and just lose to a team that the first

453
00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 4: time the Panthers are favored in like what a couple.

454
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:14,200
Speaker 3: Of years or something, thirty three games?

455
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, thirty three games.

456
00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, so you know this, this market is kind of

457
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:19,879
Speaker 4: jumping back and forth. But the Panthers started one and

458
00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:22,960
Speaker 4: seven against the spread, and the market has never really

459
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 4: adjusted to him. I mean, Bucks eight points even at home,

460
00:23:27,359 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 4: a lot of points.

461
00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 1: Love love a lot of things they're doing, William Coleman.

462
00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 4: And whatnot, But uh, divisional game, second matchup, that's just

463
00:23:35,119 --> 00:23:37,640
Speaker 4: a lot of points. We see these we usually see

464
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,840
Speaker 4: them tighten up in the second one. So, I mean,

465
00:23:40,280 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised if the Panthers hang around. And

466
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 4: they've been doing it every single week except that Dallas game.

467
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 4: And uh yeah, I like the Panthers here.

468
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, this would have been one of mine. I thought

469
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:53,359
Speaker 3: this would open up seven, back up seven. After the

470
00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 3: Bucks lost to the Cowboys.

471
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: That it's that what you said, it's the Bucks.

472
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 4: They just do the mow the game and Sunday night

473
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:01,880
Speaker 4: that they should probably should have just won that game.

474
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:06,320
Speaker 3: And you know the other thing is Baker Mayfield evao.

475
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:09,199
Speaker 3: The Panthers didn't score in their owns. Baker Mayfield, he cannot,

476
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:12,040
Speaker 3: he cannot figure out this defense. And it's not like

477
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,080
Speaker 3: the Panthers have had a good defense this year. Last

478
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,160
Speaker 3: was better, but last year twenty here's his last three

479
00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 3: games against Panthers. Twenty of thirty two one thirty seven,

480
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,040
Speaker 3: no touchdowns, no interceptions. They won nine to nothing. The

481
00:24:26,119 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 3: other game last year fourteen of twenty nine two two,

482
00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:31,760
Speaker 3: one touchdown, two interceptions, and then earlier this year, in

483
00:24:31,760 --> 00:24:35,320
Speaker 3: a game the Panthers should have won, Mayfield goes twenty

484
00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 3: one of thirty three two thirty five, one touchdown, two interceptions.

485
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 3: So he has really struggled against this Panthers defense, So

486
00:24:42,400 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 3: I like this as well. At anything over a touchdown,

487
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 3: This would have been one of mine. For my second

488
00:24:50,320 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 3: pick of the week seventeen Holiday six pack, I'm going

489
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 3: to go with the Dallas Cowboys plus nine and the

490
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:03,960
Speaker 3: half at the Philadelphia Eagles. I just don't think Jalen

491
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,680
Speaker 3: Hurts is gonna play. That's that's my angle on this game.

492
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 3: And if he doesn't, the reason I don't mind taking

493
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,560
Speaker 3: the risk here is if he doesn't, I don't think

494
00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,720
Speaker 3: the line is completely out of black. You know, maybe

495
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:21,359
Speaker 3: it goes to ten and a half, but if he doesn't,

496
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 3: I have it. I have it like a four and

497
00:25:22,920 --> 00:25:26,919
Speaker 3: a half point difference between Hurtz and Kenny Pickett. If

498
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 3: it's Kenny Pickett, who I never thought i'd get the

499
00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 3: chance to fade again. He's terrible. I mean last week,

500
00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:32,320
Speaker 3: what did he get? We threw it like thirty times

501
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,640
Speaker 3: for one hundred and twenty yards. Washington defense is getting destroyed.

502
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:39,400
Speaker 3: They somehow ended up coming back with five turnovers because

503
00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 3: they're playing Kenny Pickett, and you could just load the

504
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 3: box here take away Barkley and Pickett is limited on

505
00:25:46,600 --> 00:25:48,760
Speaker 3: the outside but I don't think this line. The Cowboys

506
00:25:48,800 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 3: are playing a lot better. Yeah, like they beat the Bucks.

507
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 3: Have been on a roll. Yeah, they beat the Bucks.

508
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: The Panthers have been on a roll. They destroyed the Panthers.

509
00:25:57,040 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 3: They obviously still care. Cooper Rush is playing better. Have

510
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,320
Speaker 3: found something in their run game this they will show

511
00:26:03,440 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 3: up here. This is divisional game against a heated rival

512
00:26:07,240 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 3: that embarrassed you on your home field earlier this season.

513
00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:13,520
Speaker 3: By the way, in that game it was Hurts versus

514
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,639
Speaker 3: Rush before the Cowboys have figured some things out and

515
00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: that line was seven and a half in Dallas. I

516
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 3: mean so at a point home field each way like this,

517
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:29,480
Speaker 3: this line should be around ten if Hurts as a go.

518
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 3: But if not, I don't think this line should be

519
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:36,679
Speaker 3: above a touchdown. And I think there's a greater than

520
00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 3: fifty percent chance. If you look at the data on

521
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,159
Speaker 3: concussions and is this his second of the season, I

522
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 3: feel like he had one earlier this year.

523
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:44,400
Speaker 1: No, no, no, he didn't miss any games.

524
00:26:44,400 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: He had no mass any games. But I feel like

525
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 3: he had one that remember, like there was he uh.

526
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: I think he played through it. But I think there's

527
00:26:55,960 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 3: a greater than fifty percent chance he doesn't play. That's

528
00:26:57,720 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 3: what the data says to So I'm curious your thoughts.

529
00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 3: Do you think he plays.

530
00:27:03,960 --> 00:27:05,439
Speaker 1: Something like people are telling me?

531
00:27:05,920 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 4: So people were kind of read the market and there

532
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,960
Speaker 4: was some like sharp moves on this line on the Eagles.

533
00:27:10,960 --> 00:27:13,240
Speaker 1: So there's somebody out there that thinks he's gonna play.

534
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 1: I don't. I would have thought the same thing, like

535
00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:20,200
Speaker 1: probably below fifty percent. But maybe, you know, it was

536
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 1: kind of weird how they ruled him out or you know,

537
00:27:22,480 --> 00:27:23,200
Speaker 1: he left the game.

538
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 4: They didn't rule him out. He was on the sidelines,

539
00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 4: he grabbed his helmet and then they like walked him

540
00:27:28,720 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 4: back and said no, It's like, I don't know what

541
00:27:30,359 --> 00:27:32,760
Speaker 4: was going on there. He like like maybe it was

542
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:36,359
Speaker 4: like when he barely failed or almost passed the protocol

543
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,160
Speaker 4: in game or what it was. But maybe somebody thinks

544
00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 4: he's I think there are there's definitely got to be

545
00:27:41,760 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 4: money on him playing, right, because I don't. I just

546
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,400
Speaker 4: think this line would be too wouldn't be this high period.

547
00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 4: I think it would be like eight and a half,

548
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 4: eight seven and a half in that rene.

549
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 3: No, I think it goes below seven if he's out,

550
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 3: or maybe he goes to seven, but I personally would

551
00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 3: have it. What do you have the difference between Pickett

552
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:00,080
Speaker 3: and her.

553
00:28:00,560 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: Four five points? Yeah, yeah, he's hurt too. Pick It's

554
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: hurt by.

555
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 3: The way, Yeah it could be Tanner McKay. So yeah,

556
00:28:10,720 --> 00:28:13,080
Speaker 3: I'm willing to take the risk here of hurts play.

557
00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:16,960
Speaker 3: Here's the thing, it hurts plays. I don't like I'll

558
00:28:17,000 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 3: have a bad number because this will close double digits.

559
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 3: Not crazy, but I don't think I'm dead.

560
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:26,679
Speaker 1: Divisional Games, second match up, you know.

561
00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 3: Yeah.

562
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 4: The only thing is how like the Cowboys got to

563
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 4: figure out how to move the ball though, because that

564
00:28:31,000 --> 00:28:32,119
Speaker 4: was what do they have like.

565
00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:34,880
Speaker 1: Forty five pass in the yards?

566
00:28:35,640 --> 00:28:36,320
Speaker 3: Yeah?

567
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, twenty three attempts forty five yards something crazy. Yeah,

568
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,400
Speaker 1: it was bad. So you figure it out.

569
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 3: Some things. Since they've gone more to their h they've

570
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:47,680
Speaker 3: changed their offense a bit to kind of better suit

571
00:28:48,240 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 3: Cooper Rush. So yeah, all right, maybe maybe someone knows something.

572
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:56,800
Speaker 3: I don't know. I mean, I saw like Leshawn McCoy

573
00:28:56,800 --> 00:28:59,200
Speaker 3: on the show said he's not playing. I don't know,

574
00:28:59,760 --> 00:29:04,360
Speaker 3: Like what if McCoy knows anything, But just if you

575
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,440
Speaker 3: go based on the data, the percentage of players who

576
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,000
Speaker 3: don't play the week after, and it's not like there's

577
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 3: a need to rush him back here. I know you

578
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 3: want to clinch the division if you have the Giants

579
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 3: at home next week, and so I don't know.

580
00:29:19,280 --> 00:29:22,800
Speaker 4: Okay, for my second pick and the fourth overall of

581
00:29:22,840 --> 00:29:26,680
Speaker 4: the week seventeen Holiday six pack, going with the Denver

582
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,800
Speaker 4: Broncos plus three and a half at the Cincinnati Bengals,

583
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 4: I still like it a three. Obviously three and a

584
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: half would be ideal here, and those are out there.

585
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:40,200
Speaker 4: Denver is a better team on paper ninth and Dvoa

586
00:29:40,560 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 4: the Bengals are seventeen. Both team's been trending up Denver

587
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 4: sixth and waited Dvoa Cincinnati thirteenth. So I'm still about

588
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 4: a seven eight spot gap no matter how.

589
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 1: You slice it on paper.

590
00:29:51,080 --> 00:29:53,880
Speaker 4: But the reason I like this matchup is we know

591
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,600
Speaker 4: Joe Burrow is going to, you know, put up points.

592
00:29:57,320 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 4: You just got to try to limit him a little

593
00:29:59,480 --> 00:30:03,200
Speaker 4: from putting up up forty plus and we saw the

594
00:30:03,200 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 4: Browns do that last week. The Browns tend to have

595
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 4: a lot of success against Burrow. They tend to play

596
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,400
Speaker 4: a lot of man coverage. That's what Denver does. Denver's

597
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:12,719
Speaker 4: number one and man coverage. Right, So if you look

598
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 4: at Joe Burrow this season versus zone coverage, eight point

599
00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 4: four yards in attempts point two nine EPA per dropback.

600
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 3: That's second.

601
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,360
Speaker 4: Versus man coverage, he goes from eight point four to

602
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 4: six point eight yards per attempt, and his EPA per

603
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 4: drop back drops from point to nine to point oh nine.

604
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,720
Speaker 4: So pretty big drop off if and Denver's a pretty

605
00:30:32,760 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 4: decent man coverage team, you know, they do have some

606
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 4: guys that could play back there. Certen obviously is the

607
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,880
Speaker 4: main one. But uh then let's turn it around. So

608
00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 4: all I need is, you know, Burrow to not be

609
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,040
Speaker 4: just forty five to fifty point super Borrow because on

610
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 4: the other side, Cincinnati's pass defense twenty seventh, their their

611
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 4: defense is is bad period. Obviously, that wasn't gonna show

612
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,680
Speaker 4: up against Dorian Thompson, Robinson or whoever you like.

613
00:31:00,400 --> 00:31:01,880
Speaker 1: You know, don't I would throw that out.

614
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 4: So bow Knicks, though, versus below average pass defenses this year,

615
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:10,160
Speaker 4: he's faced seven of them, seven to zero straight up,

616
00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:13,360
Speaker 4: seven to zero against the spread, twenty nine points per

617
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 4: game for the Broncos, thirteen touchdowns, two interceptions for Knicks,

618
00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 4: three rushing scores when he phrases above average pass defense,

619
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 4: points per game dropped by ten to nineteen point six,

620
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:25,920
Speaker 4: two and six straight up three, four and one. Against

621
00:31:25,920 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 4: the spread, passing yardage drops under two hundred, goes from

622
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 4: seven yards in attempt to five point nine, and the

623
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 4: touchdown interception ratio goes from thirteen to two to nine

624
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:39,800
Speaker 4: to nine. So like it's just night and day. Bow

625
00:31:39,880 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 4: Knicks has looked horrible versus some of the better defenses

626
00:31:42,800 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 4: in the league, and this Broncos offense has looked just

627
00:31:47,080 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 4: look like it's humming against some of the worst defenses.

628
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:51,880
Speaker 4: And this Bengals defense is that to me, Sean Payton

629
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 4: was in his bag on Thursday night. That whole game

630
00:31:54,160 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 4: changed on the on that crazy fair free kick, like

631
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,920
Speaker 4: that free kick of all the things for them not

632
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:01,959
Speaker 4: to you know, for them to screw up, and like

633
00:32:02,160 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 4: it's kind of a reflection on coaching. But like Sean

634
00:32:04,920 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 4: Payton that he was just going nuts in those first

635
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 4: couple of drives, like all these random running backs touching

636
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,880
Speaker 4: the ball. So I think he's gonna do a number

637
00:32:12,920 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 4: of I think his script is gonna be great on

638
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,240
Speaker 4: his defense. Maybe you don't like full game, Maybe you

639
00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:18,480
Speaker 4: play some first half as well. But I just think

640
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 4: Sean Payton is going to have an extra time to prepare,

641
00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:24,840
Speaker 4: is going to have some really good scripts and really

642
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:27,520
Speaker 4: good schemes for this defense. I think Burrow is gonna

643
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 4: put up his numbers, but he's not going to be

644
00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 4: quite as a spectacular as he's been against some of

645
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 4: these defenses in the league. So give me the Denver

646
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 4: Broncos plus three and a half. Sean Payton over sixty

647
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 4: percent as an underdog in his coaching career.

648
00:32:44,560 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, nothing to hear for. I actually was gonna think

649
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 3: about playing the Bengals, but I mean, I make this three.

650
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 3: I thought I was gonna get a better number. Injury watch.

651
00:32:54,240 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 3: Riley Mots could come back for the Broncos. That would

652
00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 3: be huge. Their past defense is not the same without him.

653
00:33:01,080 --> 00:33:03,120
Speaker 3: Peyton Hennedy could be back. I need to watch the

654
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 3: Bengals offensive line. I know that they said Mims and

655
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 3: Brown would be at practice today if both of them

656
00:33:12,560 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 3: are out. I completely agree with you. They their offensive

657
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 3: line without last week. Just look at last week. So

658
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,479
Speaker 3: Brown wasn't out there. When Mims went out, it was

659
00:33:25,960 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 3: a disaster and everything fell apart. So if they can't go.

660
00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:33,320
Speaker 3: It doesn't matter how magical Burrow is, and you're gonna

661
00:33:33,320 --> 00:33:35,200
Speaker 3: against the team that's gonna blitz, that can get pressure

662
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:38,840
Speaker 3: and can play man on the back end. If those

663
00:33:38,840 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 3: two offensive linemen can't go, it's gonna be a long

664
00:33:42,680 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 3: day for Burrow, regardless of how well he's playing, because

665
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 3: they did. But offense just wasn't the same after Mims

666
00:33:48,800 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 3: went out last week and that second half, Burrow was

667
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:53,400
Speaker 3: just under He made a couple of ridiculous throws like well,

668
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 3: hey had guys hanging on him. The offensive line was

669
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:01,959
Speaker 3: not the same. You cannot have I mean it's, uh,

670
00:34:03,160 --> 00:34:06,720
Speaker 3: you cannot have I don't care how good Joe Burrow is,

671
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 3: you cannot have an offensive line where kordof Olsen already

672
00:34:11,560 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 3: has his flaws, ause Kappa has his flaws. You cannot

673
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 3: have Devin Cochrane and Cody Ford as. I mean, yeah,

674
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,919
Speaker 3: it's it's bad. So, uh, that's that's what I gotta

675
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:28,359
Speaker 3: watch there.

676
00:34:28,680 --> 00:34:30,799
Speaker 1: And I was just one thing.

677
00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:32,960
Speaker 4: I'm just gonna say, Like the Bengs, I'm starting, like

678
00:34:32,960 --> 00:34:35,160
Speaker 4: t Higgins played a fewer snaps last game, So there's

679
00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:37,319
Speaker 4: certain things too, like maybe they just hold those guys

680
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 4: out you know, I don't know, because there's certain guys

681
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:41,719
Speaker 4: that just weren't playing as much.

682
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: But yeah, where you going next?

683
00:34:43,120 --> 00:34:45,799
Speaker 3: I think the Broncos are really overrated, but because Nick

684
00:34:45,960 --> 00:34:48,839
Speaker 3: is limited, but Nick can excel when Peyton can hold

685
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:50,680
Speaker 3: his hand. And this is a matchup where Peyton can

686
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,960
Speaker 3: hold his hand, and you know they'll be able to

687
00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 3: run the ball to which is kind of where everything starts.

688
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 1: No, no, no, don't get that crazy.

689
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: I know about Thatilliams under the still live.

690
00:35:02,239 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: Can they run the No?

691
00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,720
Speaker 3: But I think I'll be able to run on the Yeah, Willis,

692
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:11,440
Speaker 3: But yeah, all right for my that's the mayovers.

693
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:13,600
Speaker 1: Well, anybody but Williams.

694
00:35:13,640 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 3: For my third pick and the fifth overall of the

695
00:35:17,120 --> 00:35:23,400
Speaker 3: holiday week seventeen to six pack, I'm going with the

696
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 3: New York we claim to play football giants at home

697
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,120
Speaker 3: against the Colts. I'm very sorry.

698
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,919
Speaker 1: I'm not happy with Stuckey at all to saying that

699
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 1: we're doing that.

700
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,560
Speaker 3: This sucks and it's horseshit, But I'm too polite to

701
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,319
Speaker 3: say anything because I'm a class act. Look, I have

702
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:44,920
Speaker 3: to get one of these dogs that is playing for

703
00:35:44,960 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 3: nothing against the team that needs to win. In here.

704
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,800
Speaker 3: The worst part is the teams that you need to back,

705
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,239
Speaker 3: and this week just sums up the NFL season. Like,

706
00:35:54,239 --> 00:35:58,840
Speaker 3: am I going to back dtr against the Dolphins? I can't.

707
00:36:00,600 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 3: Drew Lock is starting. Drew Lock is terrible, but Drew

708
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:09,359
Speaker 3: Lock is better than Tommy DeVito. So that's that's all

709
00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:11,440
Speaker 3: I needed to say. And again this is a premium

710
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:13,319
Speaker 3: on the Colts because they need to win. I make

711
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 3: the six and a half, and I have the Giants

712
00:36:15,400 --> 00:36:19,920
Speaker 3: power rated at the bottom of the as bottom as

713
00:36:19,920 --> 00:36:22,359
Speaker 3: you could be, worst team in the NFL, as bad

714
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 3: as any team last year, bottom of the barrel. I

715
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,160
Speaker 3: can't get over a touchdown here because the Colts aren't

716
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 3: good to do. You know how many games the Colts

717
00:36:32,040 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 3: have won by more than one possession this year? Done zero?

718
00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 3: And they've played the Bears at home. They played the

719
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 3: Dolphins with and again they should have lost. They got

720
00:36:44,080 --> 00:36:46,640
Speaker 3: out played. Who was starting for the Dolphins. I was

721
00:36:46,640 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 3: Tim Boyle that took over. I think it was a

722
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 3: this game.

723
00:36:51,360 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 4: No, I think he's back on the practice squad, was

724
00:36:53,680 --> 00:36:55,400
Speaker 4: on the injury report with his shoulder, so who knows?

725
00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: Who knows?

726
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 3: They said he's gonna play like an hour ago. He's

727
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:03,320
Speaker 3: good to go. But but yeah, maybe Boil comes in

728
00:37:03,320 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: in relief. I don't know if they'll activate him. But yeah,

729
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 3: they played the Dolphins with Tim Boyle, they played you know,

730
00:37:10,200 --> 00:37:12,239
Speaker 3: the Bears at home. These are all games they should

731
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:14,160
Speaker 3: have lost too. I mean at New England they went

732
00:37:14,200 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 3: in the last second. At New York they went by one.

733
00:37:18,160 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 3: They've played some bats. You even think it's some Titans.

734
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:23,680
Speaker 3: They are blowing the mountain. They somehow almost blow that

735
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:28,160
Speaker 3: entire lead. Here's the thing. Drew Lock is really bad.

736
00:37:29,280 --> 00:37:32,439
Speaker 3: So is Anthony Richardson. If you look at EPA plus

737
00:37:32,440 --> 00:37:34,960
Speaker 3: completion percentage over expectation, the three worst quarterbacks in the

738
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 3: NFL that are in elite A tier of their own

739
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:45,320
Speaker 3: are Spencer Rattler, Drew Lock minimum hundred snaps, and Anthony Richardson. Like, yeah,

740
00:37:46,920 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 3: I need the Colts win by double digits on the road.

741
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:52,800
Speaker 3: I don't. I have to take the eight and a

742
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 3: half here. It sucks, it's awful. But the Giants Rundy

743
00:37:59,680 --> 00:38:03,719
Speaker 3: is bad without Lawrence, but it's been and it has

744
00:38:03,760 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 3: not great out pestic but it's been better than I expected.

745
00:38:06,560 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 3: Like they're at least like fighting, like against the Falcons,

746
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:12,040
Speaker 3: it's not like the Falcons ran wild. The Saints didn't

747
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:17,160
Speaker 3: run wild. So yeah that I just can't get to

748
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:20,840
Speaker 3: this number here. And here's the thing. There's also a

749
00:38:20,920 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 3: chance if the Broncos and the Chargers win, Cults are

750
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:28,440
Speaker 3: eliminated by Sunday, and do they just come out completely flat.

751
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:34,880
Speaker 3: I don't know. Regardless, I like it. I'm taking the

752
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:38,239
Speaker 3: points with the Giants. Hopefully we can get a My

753
00:38:38,360 --> 00:38:40,880
Speaker 3: one joyt joyous moment of the year was Drew Locke

754
00:38:41,480 --> 00:38:45,479
Speaker 3: driving down a field two point conversion. It's the only

755
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 3: under tip ball two point conversions, the only two point conversion,

756
00:38:49,600 --> 00:38:52,879
Speaker 3: the only joyous moment I've had with an underdog all year.

757
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 3: One more time, Drew, one more time. I just want

758
00:38:58,600 --> 00:39:00,080
Speaker 3: to tweet the Gezi get.

759
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 1: Hey, I actually have something on this game, so I

760
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: won't even But yeah, I kind of you agree with

761
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: me for once on the Giants, I kind of I

762
00:39:11,560 --> 00:39:13,799
Speaker 1: just Anthony rich I can't. But then again, it's like

763
00:39:13,840 --> 00:39:14,840
Speaker 1: I've faded in lasting.

764
00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:15,120
Speaker 3: I don't know.

765
00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 1: The Titans are up seven nothing, they're kicking a field goal.

766
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:19,359
Speaker 1: I think they go up what ten nothing or ten

767
00:39:19,360 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 1: to seven something? Okay in this.

768
00:39:24,239 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 4: Seriously, but Art the Giants too. I mean it lost

769
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:28,680
Speaker 4: thirty four to seven to a rookie and his first

770
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:29,480
Speaker 4: start on short rest.

771
00:39:29,520 --> 00:39:31,760
Speaker 3: Ye after two, pick six is like that box scores

772
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 3: a bit misleading. Yeah, you got an indoor team too,

773
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:41,280
Speaker 3: going outdoors in December. It's just too high. This should

774
00:39:41,280 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 3: be like seven, not eight and a half. I make

775
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,719
Speaker 3: it six, six point six, six point seven, I think.

776
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:49,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, I kind of, I kind of agree, which

777
00:39:49,320 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 1: is scary, which means we'll probably we're probably both wrong, but.

778
00:39:52,480 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 3: We're cook.

779
00:39:55,000 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 1: All right.

780
00:39:55,360 --> 00:39:58,040
Speaker 4: For my third and final pick and the thick the

781
00:39:58,040 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 4: overall of the week, seventeen howaday six pas going with

782
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 4: the Green Bay Packers plus one and a half at

783
00:40:02,800 --> 00:40:07,040
Speaker 4: the Minnesota Vikings. So uh, there's kind of a perception

784
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,239
Speaker 4: that the Vikings are just better to even, but this

785
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:11,279
Speaker 4: line obviously says they're.

786
00:40:11,000 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 1: Pretty much even.

787
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 4: Give maybe what a point for home field and it's

788
00:40:15,520 --> 00:40:17,719
Speaker 4: probably less than that, and then a point for a

789
00:40:17,719 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 4: half point for the short rest for the Packers. But

790
00:40:21,360 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 4: I think the Packers, ever since those two teams played,

791
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 4: I think the Packers have overtaken the Vikings in terms

792
00:40:28,400 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 4: of power rating because if you look at Green Bay,

793
00:40:30,760 --> 00:40:32,760
Speaker 4: I mean on paper, green Bay's now third in DVOA

794
00:40:32,840 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 4: Minnesota's six.

795
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 1: Green Bay. If you look at way a d VOA.

796
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 4: Which waits the more recent games more heavily, green Bay

797
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:43,439
Speaker 4: is better offensively and defensively and.

798
00:40:43,360 --> 00:40:44,280
Speaker 1: On special teams.

799
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 4: So, you know, a lot of people don't like still

800
00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:49,359
Speaker 4: think of Minnesota's defense is you know, probably top two three,

801
00:40:49,440 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 4: but green Bay's overtaking them. Green Bay is number three

802
00:40:52,800 --> 00:40:57,800
Speaker 4: in defense Minnesota's five. And Jordan Love just stopped turning

803
00:40:57,800 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 4: the ball over. They can run the ball and pretty

804
00:40:59,840 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 4: much anybody. And Sam Garnold, I think he's been getting

805
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:06,360
Speaker 4: lucky with you know them just going on his wind streak.

806
00:41:06,560 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 4: It's been everything's kind of been just cutting it super close.

807
00:41:09,640 --> 00:41:11,759
Speaker 4: He's getting you know, the Cardinals, he got all those

808
00:41:11,840 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 4: there was all those field goals and non they didn't

809
00:41:14,800 --> 00:41:16,160
Speaker 4: go for it as much as they should. They got

810
00:41:16,160 --> 00:41:19,800
Speaker 4: the break against the Seahawks. So I think this Viking

811
00:41:19,880 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 4: team has been getting a little lucky.

812
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,719
Speaker 3: I know he has some more picks coming every week. Yes,

813
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:27,040
Speaker 3: he keeps recovering these fumbles, he keeps the interceptions keep

814
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:30,200
Speaker 3: getting dropped. And I agree the secondary is vulnerable to

815
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 3: from Minnesota.

816
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:33,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, and green Bay I mean they've just quietly, you've

817
00:41:33,719 --> 00:41:36,560
Speaker 4: just been chugging along and kind of building this powerhouse team.

818
00:41:36,640 --> 00:41:39,719
Speaker 4: And if you look at this Monday night, like I know,

819
00:41:39,760 --> 00:41:41,960
Speaker 4: they're on short rest, but they got their starters out

820
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 4: of there, like I Watson much questionable, but and you

821
00:41:44,960 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 4: Knowed Alexander doesn't exist.

822
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:48,879
Speaker 1: But outside of that, I mean, this defense has been

823
00:41:48,880 --> 00:41:50,360
Speaker 1: playing really well.

824
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 4: Jaire has been out since week what eleven ten, He

825
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:58,040
Speaker 4: hasn't played in for half the year pretty much. And Minnesota, Yeah,

826
00:41:58,360 --> 00:42:01,479
Speaker 4: I just think that two quarters were kind of the same.

827
00:42:01,640 --> 00:42:04,560
Speaker 4: They were, you know, both of them were extremely turnover prone,

828
00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:06,719
Speaker 4: but you know, can make big plays and explosives. But

829
00:42:07,200 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 4: Darnold's now cutting it close and Love has overtaken him,

830
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 4: and you know all the advanced metrics. So I think

831
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 4: this Green Bay team is pretty much equal, you know,

832
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:19,520
Speaker 4: to this Minnesota team, maybe even a little better. In

833
00:42:19,560 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 4: that first matchup, they outgained them for sixty five to

834
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 4: three seventy four. They went down big early and then

835
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,040
Speaker 4: minute it was just like Minnesota trying to hold on

836
00:42:27,280 --> 00:42:30,000
Speaker 4: to the end of the game. But Green Bay out

837
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,160
Speaker 4: played them pretty much like right before the half to

838
00:42:33,200 --> 00:42:35,560
Speaker 4: the remainder of the game, they had miss field goals,

839
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:38,279
Speaker 4: they had turnovers, a couple of just all types of

840
00:42:38,320 --> 00:42:41,799
Speaker 4: things that they've cleaned up pretty much since then. You

841
00:42:41,800 --> 00:42:44,719
Speaker 4: know their kickers better now Love's not turned the ball over,

842
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:48,160
Speaker 4: Their run games better, their whole offense, their deep like

843
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 4: every everything scheme wise is better. So and I think

844
00:42:50,719 --> 00:42:53,920
Speaker 4: Minnesota as good as O'Connor is. Like now it's late

845
00:42:53,920 --> 00:42:57,840
Speaker 4: in the year, second divisional matchup, you can kind of

846
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 4: get your bearings will floored great as an underdog as well,

847
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:04,719
Speaker 4: So love the Packers here. I think this is a

848
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:08,799
Speaker 4: spot where they could surprise the people and beat the

849
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:09,600
Speaker 4: Bikers on a road.

850
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:13,840
Speaker 3: Don't mind it, but I don't show a ton of

851
00:43:14,040 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 3: value either way. But I do think the Bikings are

852
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:18,800
Speaker 3: extremely overrated right now, and I do I have the

853
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 3: package power as a top five team and better than

854
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:22,600
Speaker 3: the Vikings right now. So yep, don't hate.

855
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: It all right.

856
00:43:24,239 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 4: So that's our week seventeen holiday six pack. We got

857
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 4: Let's see, you got Russell, Wilson, Cooper, Rush.

858
00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:35,080
Speaker 1: And true Locke. Okay, okay, I mean luckily if Russ

859
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 1: wasn't Russell this year, I mean, man, that would be

860
00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,080
Speaker 1: the worse. But I got Bryce Young, the second half

861
00:43:41,120 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 1: Price Young, Voe Nicks, and Jordan Love So just like

862
00:43:45,960 --> 00:43:49,000
Speaker 1: a turnover waiting to happen pretty much for mine, but

863
00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,360
Speaker 1: I hope we would get back on track here. That

864
00:43:52,520 --> 00:43:54,759
Speaker 1: was our week seventeen holiday six pack. Now it's time

865
00:43:54,800 --> 00:43:55,720
Speaker 1: for our Coaches pepsod.

866
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 2: Every time we get ready to play, I just want

867
00:43:58,480 --> 00:44:01,080
Speaker 2: to throw up watching you guys play.

868
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 1: Just how bad can it get?

869
00:44:03,520 --> 00:44:03,839
Speaker 3: All right?

870
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 4: This week's Coaches Peptalk comes to us from the Howaday

871
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:10,280
Speaker 4: classic film Christmas Vacation, and uh we got to dedicated

872
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:15,759
Speaker 4: to the giants, man, I mean they got please Yeah,

873
00:44:16,120 --> 00:44:19,239
Speaker 4: especially not too I've been on I'm been like all right, yeah,

874
00:44:19,320 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 4: Jameis just does. Even when Jameis throws picked sixes, it's

875
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,000
Speaker 4: like they still he still covers at like a sixty

876
00:44:24,000 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 4: percent quipper and as a dog.

877
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,880
Speaker 1: And of course no it didn't happen. So hopefully you

878
00:44:28,920 --> 00:44:29,680
Speaker 1: have better luck than me.

879
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,399
Speaker 3: Hey, any of you are looking for any blast minuted

880
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:38,200
Speaker 3: gift ideas for me? I have one. I like my

881
00:44:38,280 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 3: boss right here tonight.

882
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 5: I want him brought from his happy holiday slumber over

883
00:44:42,520 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 5: there with all the other rich people, and I want

884
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:47,120
Speaker 5: him brought right here with a big ribbon on his head,

885
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 5: and I want to look him straight in the eye.

886
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 3: I don't want to tell him what a cheap lying, no.

887
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:55,240
Speaker 5: Good, rotten for flushing, low life, snake looking, dirt eating

888
00:44:55,239 --> 00:45:02,359
Speaker 5: and bread over stuff, ignorant, blood sucking, dog kissing, brain less, stickless, hopeless, heartless,

889
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 5: fat ass, bug eyed, stiff leg It's funny, lip worm.

890
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: Headed sack of monkey shit he is?

891
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 3: I know, yeah, holy shit, where's the title all that?

892
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:18,000
Speaker 4: Let's hit to our favorite total week. I went us

893
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,160
Speaker 4: first for the six packs. I go first with the total,

894
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 4: and I'm going with that Coats Giants under forty and

895
00:45:22,920 --> 00:45:25,759
Speaker 4: a half. Maybe see if it gets to forty hundred bucks.

896
00:45:25,800 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 4: Seventy percent of the bets and handle coming in on

897
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:32,320
Speaker 4: the over according to the public betting data tracks in

898
00:45:32,360 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 4: the Action Network app. So it's it's only Wednesday, so

899
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:37,279
Speaker 4: I can see this touching forty one, which is a

900
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 4: key number, but like it at forty and a half. Nonetheless,

901
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 4: I just think you have an outdoor team in the Colts,

902
00:45:43,880 --> 00:45:46,640
Speaker 4: that they might be either going to be eliminated or

903
00:45:46,680 --> 00:45:48,799
Speaker 4: they're going to have to win, and that they're gonna

904
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,719
Speaker 4: have a lot of pressure. Could be a little tight

905
00:45:51,760 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 4: on the road outdoors. Anthony Richardson can't complete passes indoors outdoors,

906
00:45:56,560 --> 00:45:58,600
Speaker 4: met light, I mean, yeah, met Life is going to

907
00:45:58,680 --> 00:45:59,480
Speaker 4: be a little.

908
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:03,240
Speaker 1: Bit of a swirling in potentially. And you're right, the Giants.

909
00:46:03,280 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 4: They didn't give up a ton of explosives to the Falcons.

910
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:09,160
Speaker 4: The yards per carry was respectable at the end of

911
00:46:09,200 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 4: the day. Really the reason the Falcons had thirty four

912
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:14,279
Speaker 4: points and think didn't miss I think a field goal,

913
00:46:14,280 --> 00:46:16,960
Speaker 4: but they had two pick sixes. So I think this

914
00:46:17,080 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 4: coach defense is playing a little better. I don't think

915
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:23,839
Speaker 4: the Giants get a ton on offense, and uh and yeah,

916
00:46:23,880 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 4: I just think, I mean, Anthony richards has been he's

917
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 4: been having games where they put up you know, thirty eight.

918
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 1: They put up thirty eight, twenty eight. They're they're having some.

919
00:46:34,000 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 4: High scores for a dude who can't complete passes and

920
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,359
Speaker 4: like that would be best suited just running the ball,

921
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:44,359
Speaker 4: you know, almost every play of their drives. So uh yeah,

922
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 4: I think I think this coach team is bound for

923
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:50,319
Speaker 4: some regression on their on just their points per game.

924
00:46:50,480 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 4: So give me this under forty and a half in

925
00:46:53,160 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 4: met Life and it's another one of these one these

926
00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 4: early window MetLife unders that hits over sixty percent.

927
00:46:58,480 --> 00:47:00,200
Speaker 1: We had it with the Jets in.

928
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 4: The Rams last week and that that was I mean,

929
00:47:02,880 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 4: they didn't even get to thirty points combined. So like

930
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:09,000
Speaker 4: this one, people underestimate how tough it is to play

931
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:13,800
Speaker 4: in an empty, cold, swirling win MetLife Stadium.

932
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:14,880
Speaker 5: One.

933
00:47:15,000 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 3: Giants just pull us out out ou outright too. It

934
00:47:18,360 --> 00:47:20,879
Speaker 3: would be nice for if the Bengals, too, indeed beat

935
00:47:20,880 --> 00:47:24,280
Speaker 3: the Broncos for the Bengals playoff chances. Although the Dolphins

936
00:47:24,320 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 3: will need to lose, it would need the Jets, probably

937
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:28,800
Speaker 3: because I don't think the Browns are gonna beat the Dolphins,

938
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 3: but that's where I'm going My total under forty and

939
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 3: a half in Cleveland gonna be windy, most likely still

940
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,240
Speaker 3: early in the week. But how are the Browns scoring?

941
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:41,200
Speaker 3: This offense is in the tank. They say they're not

942
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:44,480
Speaker 3: going back to Winston, so it's hurt to either DTR

943
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 3: or ZAPI. How are they gonna score? They're just gonna be.

944
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:50,719
Speaker 3: The Dolphins will methodically move the ball, Garrett will get

945
00:47:51,200 --> 00:47:53,680
Speaker 3: a couple of sacks to kill some drives. Dolphins will

946
00:47:53,680 --> 00:47:57,719
Speaker 3: probably go up kill the game at this game should

947
00:47:57,760 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 3: be disgusting, probably dead angry crowd under forty and a half.

948
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:06,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll read.

949
00:48:06,160 --> 00:48:08,200
Speaker 4: So we're one hundred percent sure we're not getting James

950
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 4: because that was I was like, it would be just

951
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,320
Speaker 4: my luck if I end up betting this total and

952
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,120
Speaker 4: then we get Jamis, because that's like an extra you know,

953
00:48:15,560 --> 00:48:16,920
Speaker 4: fixed points essentially.

954
00:48:17,440 --> 00:48:23,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I played, I'll tell you that. But from the

955
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:25,720
Speaker 3: people I talked to, they're done with them.

956
00:48:25,960 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 4: I mean, understandable, but yeah, that's the way this year

957
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:30,719
Speaker 4: has been going. I'm just like, I don't know, it

958
00:48:30,760 --> 00:48:33,400
Speaker 4: seems seems a little too. It seems a little sketch.

959
00:48:33,400 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 4: If dtr is.

960
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 3: I would love the Browns as a dog in this

961
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 3: spot if Winston was playing even over a field goal,

962
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,799
Speaker 3: but I don't think he's playing so under.

963
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:48,560
Speaker 4: All right, no teases for us this week, weird, Not

964
00:48:48,560 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 4: not really many numbers that we like.

965
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,080
Speaker 1: The Raiders.

966
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 3: Oh, if you can get the Packers at one and

967
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 3: a half anywhere, yeah, I like teasing them all with

968
00:49:00,960 --> 00:49:04,600
Speaker 3: like the Steelers. If you're not confident in the Steelers

969
00:49:04,600 --> 00:49:07,319
Speaker 3: at three and want to take them the two possessions, yeah,

970
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:07,560
Speaker 3: I mean.

971
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:08,000
Speaker 1: To stay with this.

972
00:49:08,080 --> 00:49:10,080
Speaker 4: Chiefs aren't when they're not going to blow them out now,

973
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 4: right like the Chiefs. They're covering, but they're still not

974
00:49:13,120 --> 00:49:17,480
Speaker 4: blowing teams out, so yeah, I don't mind that one.

975
00:49:17,840 --> 00:49:24,879
Speaker 4: All right, Let's get into our underdog money line Parley.

976
00:49:23,680 --> 00:49:27,000
Speaker 3: Turning good weekends into great weekends.

977
00:49:27,520 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay.

978
00:49:31,160 --> 00:49:33,520
Speaker 4: Eight combined on the years, so not too bad. But

979
00:49:33,640 --> 00:49:36,279
Speaker 4: otill we only have one the same week. I think

980
00:49:36,320 --> 00:49:38,240
Speaker 4: that was the Giants, and it was the Giants Panthers,

981
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:40,239
Speaker 4: I think, or something. So let's try to get another

982
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:42,600
Speaker 4: one here. Where you're going with your moneyline, Doug.

983
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:48,600
Speaker 3: Let's go with the Pats. Fisty Pats a hat. They're

984
00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 3: playing better. Drake May used his legs last week a

985
00:49:51,000 --> 00:49:53,120
Speaker 3: lot more, even though I thought they weren't going to

986
00:49:53,160 --> 00:49:57,760
Speaker 3: go that route anymore. Still playing hard, Chargers going across

987
00:49:57,800 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 3: the country here are outdoors. I think their defense is

988
00:50:01,120 --> 00:50:05,239
Speaker 3: trending down. They still can't really run the ball consistently.

989
00:50:06,239 --> 00:50:10,760
Speaker 3: The Pats will probably play more man than zone here.

990
00:50:11,320 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 3: That is what you need to do against the Chargers.

991
00:50:15,880 --> 00:50:17,839
Speaker 3: I think they got a puncher's chance here. So let's

992
00:50:17,880 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 3: go with Drake May and the Pats at home and

993
00:50:22,160 --> 00:50:25,359
Speaker 3: what no this is again a game where Chargers need

994
00:50:25,360 --> 00:50:29,040
Speaker 3: to win. Pats can treat this as a super Bowl.

995
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 3: Play a little looser. Let's go with New England.

996
00:50:31,960 --> 00:50:34,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're they're catching a lot of sharp money too.

997
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 4: I mean I was on the wrong side of them, Like,

998
00:50:36,239 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 4: of course I picked the one big favorite that doesn't

999
00:50:38,320 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 4: cover last week with the Bills. But yeah, this is

1000
00:50:41,280 --> 00:50:43,799
Speaker 4: that just that kind of year. But you know, I

1001
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,120
Speaker 4: did say Drake may is playing a lot better. So

1002
00:50:46,320 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 4: if they if they cover, they pull it upset, it's

1003
00:50:48,560 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 4: going to be because of him.

1004
00:50:49,920 --> 00:50:51,799
Speaker 1: And I do like that they played man cover.

1005
00:50:51,920 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 4: I think that's that's that's the way you got to

1006
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:55,759
Speaker 4: beat the Charges because that kind of takes their tight

1007
00:50:55,880 --> 00:50:58,920
Speaker 4: ends out of the game as an option. And it

1008
00:50:59,000 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 4: really just I mean, Herbert is six of twenty three

1009
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:06,280
Speaker 4: targeting Quenton Johnston against man coverage, nine of twenty targeting

1010
00:51:06,360 --> 00:51:09,680
Speaker 4: Josh Palmer. It's like and Palmer's essentially a second best

1011
00:51:09,680 --> 00:51:12,920
Speaker 4: option against man after McConkey. So yeah, it could get

1012
00:51:13,000 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 4: it could get real tight for the for the Chargers

1013
00:51:15,719 --> 00:51:19,600
Speaker 4: here Saturday, going across the country. Justly could take it

1014
00:51:19,600 --> 00:51:21,399
Speaker 4: for granted a little they have you know, they're kind

1015
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:23,120
Speaker 4: of haven't really been in some of the I mean,

1016
00:51:23,120 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 4: they probably should have losted the Broncauz if they don't

1017
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:27,479
Speaker 4: get that free kick, that just it turns the entire

1018
00:51:27,520 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 4: momentum of the game around. So uh yeah, I like

1019
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:34,240
Speaker 4: that one. I'm gonna go with the Pittsburgh Steelers here.

1020
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 4: This is I mean, no, this isn't. I don't think

1021
00:51:37,719 --> 00:51:40,280
Speaker 4: this is gonna be popular at all because it's Chiefs.

1022
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:42,480
Speaker 4: All they do is win every week. And everyone's gonna

1023
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,440
Speaker 4: tell you that stat about Patrick Mahomes if he's you know,

1024
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 4: minus three or less. But look at Mike tom Win

1025
00:51:49,719 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 4: as an underdog in his career, I mean as a

1026
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,799
Speaker 4: moneyline dog from October on, so take out the first

1027
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,160
Speaker 4: month of the season. He's forty three and thirty three

1028
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,399
Speaker 4: straight up as a dog. So he's winning these ten

1029
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 4: over five ten games, over five hundred outrights as as

1030
00:52:05,040 --> 00:52:05,760
Speaker 4: an underdog.

1031
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:08,200
Speaker 2: My kids want to have a good chrismas.

1032
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:11,920
Speaker 1: Awful loss twenty one and fourteen, sixty percent home dog.

1033
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,520
Speaker 1: I think you've mentioned this earlier nineteen and ten straight

1034
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:18,439
Speaker 1: up as an underdog for Mike Tomlins sixty six percent.

1035
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 4: To and O this season. So, uh, if the Chiefs

1036
00:52:21,239 --> 00:52:23,760
Speaker 4: do lose a game, and I just I just don't.

1037
00:52:23,840 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 4: They're listen, they're great there. They'll probably just find a

1038
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:29,279
Speaker 4: way to win another super Bowl. But uh, they're not

1039
00:52:29,320 --> 00:52:31,560
Speaker 4: a fifteen and like they're not a sixteen and one team,

1040
00:52:31,640 --> 00:52:34,839
Speaker 4: like they're getting so lucky. I think Pittsburgh can get

1041
00:52:34,840 --> 00:52:36,560
Speaker 4: it done here. So yeah, I think you think they're

1042
00:52:36,560 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 4: gonna win the game too. I agree, going Steelers plus

1043
00:52:39,040 --> 00:52:42,000
Speaker 4: one thirty five. The parlay on that is, let's see,

1044
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:44,759
Speaker 4: you've got Patriots plus one eighty five, Steelers plus one

1045
00:52:44,880 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 4: thirty five plus five seventy three.

1046
00:52:47,840 --> 00:52:50,879
Speaker 1: Some nice juicy parlay there. All right, Time for best

1047
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:51,120
Speaker 1: of the.

1048
00:52:51,080 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 4: Rest of the games. We did not discuss in any

1049
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,680
Speaker 4: other segment that's gonna be.

1050
00:52:55,680 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 2: A touchdown, but that may be meaningful to.

1051
00:52:57,600 --> 00:53:00,839
Speaker 3: Some of you, so you know who, all right?

1052
00:53:00,840 --> 00:53:01,120
Speaker 1: Stuck.

1053
00:53:01,120 --> 00:53:02,960
Speaker 4: First up, we got a game that we both were

1054
00:53:03,640 --> 00:53:07,600
Speaker 4: thinking about different angles but ended up not touching. Cardinals

1055
00:53:07,920 --> 00:53:10,279
Speaker 4: at Rams Rams six point favorites at home.

1056
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 1: Total was forty eight. Cardinals.

1057
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 4: Look like they're gonna be down Paris Johnson again. So

1058
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,080
Speaker 4: and then games Connor's banged up a couple of your

1059
00:53:19,120 --> 00:53:22,400
Speaker 4: running backs. DJ Dallas de Mercado's already on the IR,

1060
00:53:22,560 --> 00:53:25,160
Speaker 4: so Cardinal offense could be a little bit shaky.

1061
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:26,839
Speaker 1: What do you think about this one?

1062
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:29,600
Speaker 4: I kind of lean under, but it is indoors and

1063
00:53:30,000 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 4: I don't know if I could trust the cards d

1064
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 4: But what are your thoughts on this one?

1065
00:53:34,160 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, Paris Johnson and Jon and Williams are out, will

1066
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:42,000
Speaker 3: Dernandez is on IR. It's off bad offensive line situation.

1067
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,720
Speaker 3: I gotta see on Connor, he says he wants to play.

1068
00:53:45,360 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 3: This line's getting too high. This is again Premium Cardinals

1069
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:55,320
Speaker 3: just eliminated. Rams are on a Rollough they looked awful

1070
00:53:55,400 --> 00:53:58,480
Speaker 3: last week, They've won a ton of close games all year.

1071
00:53:58,680 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 3: I would have probably taken the car.

1072
00:54:00,000 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 2: I know.

1073
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,080
Speaker 3: If I can get seven, I think that's where we're headed.

1074
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,440
Speaker 3: If it gets to seven, I'll probably play. The one

1075
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:06,759
Speaker 3: thing I do like about this game is I really

1076
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 3: do like the Cardinal's staff. They're probably gonna try some

1077
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,600
Speaker 3: innovative things here, and they're just gonna be super aggressive.

1078
00:54:11,600 --> 00:54:14,160
Speaker 3: I bet, like nothing to lose. They're probably gonna go

1079
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:16,799
Speaker 3: for it on fourth downs. You're probably gonna see some

1080
00:54:16,800 --> 00:54:19,920
Speaker 3: trick plays. They're probably gonna make the more optimal decisions

1081
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:23,799
Speaker 3: Rams who need to win, and if if they win

1082
00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:28,120
Speaker 3: by the way, they they might clinch, they might clinch

1083
00:54:28,160 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 3: the division. In Week eighteen's game might not mean anything.

1084
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 3: It depends. It could come down to strength of victory.

1085
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:37,320
Speaker 3: So and they have a big lead right now over

1086
00:54:37,520 --> 00:54:42,840
Speaker 3: the Seahawks. So yeah, I think that like the Rams,

1087
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:47,600
Speaker 3: they you know, they're needing to win, I play it

1088
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 3: a little closer to the vest. You might see them

1089
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 3: like settle for field goals, be a little bit more conservative.

1090
00:54:52,280 --> 00:54:53,800
Speaker 3: But the Cardinals are just one of those teams that

1091
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:55,359
Speaker 3: he just did every week. What are you gonna get?

1092
00:54:55,360 --> 00:54:58,799
Speaker 3: I don't I don't know, But if this gets up

1093
00:54:58,800 --> 00:55:01,360
Speaker 3: to like seven seven pl I think I might dabble

1094
00:55:01,440 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 3: with the Cardinals.

1095
00:55:03,280 --> 00:55:05,879
Speaker 4: Yeah, And that's why I ultimately stayed away from the Under,

1096
00:55:05,880 --> 00:55:07,319
Speaker 4: because I do think the Cardinals just kind of come

1097
00:55:07,360 --> 00:55:09,400
Speaker 4: out more aggressive. They're not you know, they're not gonna

1098
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:12,600
Speaker 4: really uh you know, they're just there's there's not gonna

1099
00:55:12,600 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 4: be another repeat of those field goals against the Vikings,

1100
00:55:14,600 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 4: I don't think. But the Ram I mean, the Rams,

1101
00:55:17,080 --> 00:55:18,919
Speaker 4: they are kind of playing to the under these days

1102
00:55:18,920 --> 00:55:20,160
Speaker 4: because they're just running so much.

1103
00:55:20,160 --> 00:55:22,040
Speaker 1: But indoors a little different.

1104
00:55:22,200 --> 00:55:24,239
Speaker 4: They they probably, I mean, they looked really bad at

1105
00:55:24,560 --> 00:55:27,960
Speaker 4: in what two three outdoor games of the way indoors,

1106
00:55:27,960 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 4: they'll probably they'll probably be able to to do some

1107
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:32,600
Speaker 4: things against his cards defense as well.

1108
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:35,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, next.

1109
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,120
Speaker 3: Up, we got the and they're gonna play zone on

1110
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:40,000
Speaker 3: the back end. Yeah, that's Murray can have some success.

1111
00:55:40,480 --> 00:55:44,160
Speaker 3: I just worry like the Rams pass are also trending down.

1112
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:45,839
Speaker 3: I think I think some of their young guys are

1113
00:55:46,560 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 3: uh maybe hitting a bit of a wall. But with

1114
00:55:49,719 --> 00:55:51,400
Speaker 3: the offensive line injuries, are they just going to be

1115
00:55:51,400 --> 00:55:53,840
Speaker 3: able to get to Murray right away? That's my concern.

1116
00:55:54,280 --> 00:55:55,840
Speaker 3: But he can use his legs here.

1117
00:55:56,520 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean he has been doing that as much.

1118
00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:02,160
Speaker 4: It's been a weird season for him. But Jets at

1119
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:06,480
Speaker 4: Bills Bills favored by ten and a half in in Buffalo.

1120
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 4: The total is forty six. This is another luck under

1121
00:56:11,320 --> 00:56:14,640
Speaker 4: by the way, always hesitate to play unders on the

1122
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:16,040
Speaker 4: Bills that I mean, I know they was like a

1123
00:56:16,080 --> 00:56:20,440
Speaker 4: forty five last week, but this is tough because I

1124
00:56:20,440 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 4: feel like probably too many points you know, for the

1125
00:56:23,800 --> 00:56:27,000
Speaker 4: for the Bills here. But like you said, the Jets

1126
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 4: just find ways not to cover. What do you think,

1127
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:29,239
Speaker 4: what do you think of this one?

1128
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:32,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, we don't know the status Aaron Rodgers, who got

1129
00:56:32,239 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 3: banged up last week, hurt his knee. I would think

1130
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:38,440
Speaker 3: he's gonna play. And if so, this I mean, this

1131
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 3: line is too high. But it's a tricky game because

1132
00:56:43,719 --> 00:56:46,680
Speaker 3: the results earlier in the week will impact this game.

1133
00:56:47,200 --> 00:56:51,200
Speaker 3: If the Chiefs win, the Bills are locked in to

1134
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 3: the two seed, and they're not going to like rest

1135
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:58,280
Speaker 3: Allen or anything. But you know, he's dealing with some things.

1136
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 3: Some other guys been dealing some injuries. Do they just

1137
00:57:00,719 --> 00:57:05,879
Speaker 3: go like closer to the vest, more conservative if they're

1138
00:57:05,880 --> 00:57:08,799
Speaker 3: already locked into the two seed, like let's not risk

1139
00:57:08,880 --> 00:57:13,400
Speaker 3: as much like that could be the case. What happens

1140
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,320
Speaker 3: with Rogers, I don't know. It's a bit too many points,

1141
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:17,920
Speaker 3: but too much uncertainty now for me to get involved in.

1142
00:57:18,520 --> 00:57:20,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, and I remember a game where the Bills I

1143
00:57:20,680 --> 00:57:23,440
Speaker 4: think had playoff seating locked up. It was I think

1144
00:57:23,480 --> 00:57:25,880
Speaker 4: it was week eighteen, and so they only played their

1145
00:57:25,920 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 4: start is like a quarter or a half, and he

1146
00:57:28,000 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 4: still ended up putting up like forty and blowing out

1147
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 4: the Dolphins. So you can't even even with the Bills

1148
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:36,560
Speaker 4: backups sometimes, I mean because they play, oh they got

1149
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:38,600
Speaker 4: this skill guys on offense anyway, It's like it's not

1150
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:42,000
Speaker 4: like they have like one star that outside of Josh Allen,

1151
00:57:42,040 --> 00:57:45,480
Speaker 4: who's you know, and so yeah, it's it's tricky.

1152
00:57:46,200 --> 00:57:51,200
Speaker 1: Raiders at the Saints. Speaking of tricky, I mean the Saints.

1153
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:52,720
Speaker 3: Also Quinn Williams sask go on or you got to

1154
00:57:52,720 --> 00:57:54,320
Speaker 3: watch some of the d injuries for the Jets too.

1155
00:57:54,840 --> 00:57:58,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, Raiders Saints plus one home dog New Orleans

1156
00:57:58,880 --> 00:58:04,000
Speaker 4: coming off that thirty four nine shutout. Usually you see, yeah,

1157
00:58:04,120 --> 00:58:06,400
Speaker 4: you should be an auto play forty three and twenty

1158
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:10,400
Speaker 4: three against the spread. Home dogs off a shutout period

1159
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,040
Speaker 4: that doesn't even have to be a home dogs off

1160
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:15,960
Speaker 4: a shutout are just yeah, money against the spread.

1161
00:58:16,000 --> 00:58:19,640
Speaker 1: But this is, like he says, it's always tough because.

1162
00:58:20,360 --> 00:58:25,160
Speaker 4: You know, o'conne is not great, but like he's he's

1163
00:58:25,200 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 4: not the worst backup quarterback or you know, backup caliber

1164
00:58:28,800 --> 00:58:31,160
Speaker 4: quarterback in terms of his metrics, like he can get

1165
00:58:31,200 --> 00:58:33,520
Speaker 4: you to you know, mid sixes and yards per tent,

1166
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 4: which not something we could say of rat where at

1167
00:58:35,840 --> 00:58:39,320
Speaker 4: least not yet really, So, uh, this is kind of.

1168
00:58:39,240 --> 00:58:40,800
Speaker 1: A tough one for me and then the total.

1169
00:58:40,840 --> 00:58:43,120
Speaker 4: I mean, it's just so well for an indoor game

1170
00:58:43,160 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 4: where you could have turnovers, almost lean over at this number.

1171
00:58:47,240 --> 00:58:49,920
Speaker 4: So that's yeah, like I want to I want to

1172
00:58:49,960 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 4: play the Saints and I lean over, but.

1173
00:58:52,920 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 3: The spots I've been hitting this year for a reason. True,

1174
00:58:55,800 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 3: it should be the Saints. I might end up playing

1175
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 3: them small.

1176
00:59:00,360 --> 00:59:00,800
Speaker 1: All right?

1177
00:59:01,160 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 4: What about the Tennessee Titans and the Jags minus one Jacksonville?

1178
00:59:05,720 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 4: Which is so like the Titans took money? Apparently, I

1179
00:59:08,440 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 4: don't think it was. The line was two two and

1180
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:13,600
Speaker 4: a half, it's now one. The total thirty eight, thirty

1181
00:59:13,680 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 4: nine and a half been itting forty. I mean I

1182
00:59:17,000 --> 00:59:19,240
Speaker 4: would say the Titans of the play, but no, yeah.

1183
00:59:19,200 --> 00:59:21,440
Speaker 3: No, it's a point shaving operation.

1184
00:59:21,920 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 1: It has to be. How do you give up? I

1185
00:59:24,320 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 1: give up thirty eight straight? Oh? I can't even I

1186
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 1: don't even want to wrap my head around it.

1187
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:31,200
Speaker 3: Not we're not ruining anyone's Christmas and talking about that.

1188
00:59:31,120 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 1: Game, Yeah, I mean ruined mine more than anyone else's.

1189
00:59:34,080 --> 00:59:38,520
Speaker 4: But uh, Atlanta Washington minus four are the Commanders at

1190
00:59:38,520 --> 00:59:40,920
Speaker 4: home Sunday. This is game they got flexed to Sunday

1191
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:44,080
Speaker 4: night football. The total forty seven and a half.

1192
00:59:45,720 --> 00:59:46,560
Speaker 1: Interesting enough.

1193
00:59:46,680 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 4: I would lean under in this if I know Laddimer

1194
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 4: is questionable again, if he plays, I would wean under

1195
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:54,520
Speaker 4: in this guy. I just think the Falcons are gonna

1196
00:59:54,520 --> 00:59:56,920
Speaker 4: want to run the ball, and you know, the Commander's

1197
00:59:56,920 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 4: got to this crazy game sprip with the Eagles.

1198
00:59:58,440 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 1: Everyone was taking the Falcons.

1199
01:00:00,240 --> 01:00:03,000
Speaker 4: I mean the Commander's Eagles under like forty three, and

1200
01:00:03,040 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 4: now we're at forty seven for you know, two rookie quarterbacks.

1201
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:08,000
Speaker 1: So I kind of lean under.

1202
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,479
Speaker 4: But I think there's been some some money on the over,

1203
01:00:10,600 --> 01:00:12,439
Speaker 4: so I got to look into that more.

1204
01:00:12,560 --> 01:00:13,520
Speaker 1: What are your thoughts on this one.

1205
01:00:15,040 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 3: My thoughts are, well, Drake London too, what's his status?

1206
01:00:18,280 --> 01:00:22,520
Speaker 3: He might not play, which would help the under. I

1207
01:00:22,600 --> 01:00:26,080
Speaker 3: probably won't be involved in this game just because I

1208
01:00:26,120 --> 01:00:29,640
Speaker 3: want to learn. It's kind of like a learning game

1209
01:00:29,680 --> 01:00:32,120
Speaker 3: on Panix for me, like we couldn't really learn much

1210
01:00:32,200 --> 01:00:35,640
Speaker 3: last week he was playing the Giants. There's multiple pick sixes,

1211
01:00:35,800 --> 01:00:39,120
Speaker 3: was indoors at home. This is the game where I

1212
01:00:39,200 --> 01:00:40,760
Speaker 3: show a little bit of value on the Falcons from

1213
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:47,080
Speaker 3: a peer numbers perspective. But I just don't know enough

1214
01:00:48,240 --> 01:00:52,040
Speaker 3: about Panis yet to trust him in his first road start,

1215
01:00:52,080 --> 01:00:53,880
Speaker 3: but it would be Falcons or nothing for me. I

1216
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:58,600
Speaker 3: don't hate the underlook some injuries to watch, but nothing

1217
01:00:58,680 --> 01:00:59,439
Speaker 3: strong for me here.

1218
01:01:00,160 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean pendis it was.

1219
01:01:01,720 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 4: It was a really weird game because I feel like

1220
01:01:04,280 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 4: the announcers kept going on and on about how poised

1221
01:01:07,080 --> 01:01:08,960
Speaker 4: he was and this and that, and it's like you

1222
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:11,760
Speaker 4: look up and he just his stats didn't look great

1223
01:01:11,800 --> 01:01:13,440
Speaker 4: at the end of the day. I mean they weren't terrible.

1224
01:01:13,480 --> 01:01:17,680
Speaker 4: He didn't The interception wasn't even his fault, but he didn't.

1225
01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:20,760
Speaker 4: He didn't really make any like wow splash plays.

1226
01:01:20,800 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 1: In my opinion, it.

1227
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:24,640
Speaker 3: Is in like a favorable game script. Entire game indoors

1228
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:28,960
Speaker 3: him against a bad secondary. Yeah so, so I don't

1229
01:01:28,960 --> 01:01:29,760
Speaker 3: think we learned much.

1230
01:01:30,240 --> 01:01:30,520
Speaker 2: Yep.

1231
01:01:31,200 --> 01:01:33,240
Speaker 1: All right, that is going to do it for our

1232
01:01:33,240 --> 01:01:38,560
Speaker 1: week seventeen to holiday six Pack Action Network Podcast. Happy

1233
01:01:38,640 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 1: holidays to you and yours. Thanks for listening.

1234
01:01:41,920 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 4: You can hear more of me every week my guy

1235
01:01:44,160 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 4: Kerner talking fantasy DFS player projections on the Fantasy Flex Pod.

1236
01:01:47,720 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 4: Of course, Ducky is on the Big Bets on Campus Pod.

1237
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:56,360
Speaker 4: College football bowl season coming up, and if you're looking

1238
01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 4: for some NBA betting coverage. Check out our Buckets podcast

1239
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 4: covering everything you need to know for NBA betting. You

1240
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,200
Speaker 4: can find stuck on X at Stucky two, I'm at

1241
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 4: Chris Raybond. We're at those same handles on the free

1242
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:14,000
Speaker 4: award winning Action Network app. Happy Holidays and let's get

1243
01:02:14,000 --> 01:02:14,520
Speaker 4: this money.

1244
01:02:14,960 --> 01:02:23,160
Speaker 3: It's let go.

1245
01:02:25,200 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1246
01:02:29,080 --> 01:02:31,920
Speaker 5: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1247
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:34,840
Speaker 5: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1248
01:02:34,880 --> 01:02:35,680
Speaker 5: hundred Gambler