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Speaker 1: March Madness has finally returned, and there's only one way

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Speaker 1: to celebrate. Let's get gambling. Gambling all right?

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Speaker 2: Here we go spreading the corn.

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Speaker 3: Ten seconds remaining, we just go show under the desket,

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Speaker 3: under the basket.

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Speaker 2: It's the truth for the wind God, A miracle up

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Speaker 2: the water. Hit that one from the parking lot. What's

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Speaker 2: up the general Nation? Welcome to the Big Bets on

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Speaker 2: Campus podcast, presented by Bett MGM. It's the Thursday NCAA

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Speaker 2: Tournament college basketball betting preview. I'm stucky in Joining me

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Speaker 2: today are my two co hosts, Mike Calvarys and the

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Speaker 2: one and only Kim Cure. Gentlemen, Merry Christmas Eve Eve.

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Speaker 2: It's Tuesday night here. The first four is on. I

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Speaker 2: was just talking about how I don't I don't. I

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Speaker 2: don't love the first four. It just it feels like

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Speaker 2: I'm opening I have to really love a game to

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Speaker 2: bet it. I'm usually doing a bunch of content. It

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Speaker 2: feels like I'm opening Christmas presents ahead of time, ahead

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Speaker 2: of Christmas. Maybe I'm just old school, grew up without

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Speaker 2: the first four. But the turn up for me, really

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Speaker 2: it doesn't start until well, we're gonna talk about the

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Speaker 2: first tip, like twelve twenty on Thursday, Kai, how goes it?

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Speaker 2: And as a kid were you were you one to

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Speaker 2: try and find the presence or if you had a

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Speaker 2: chance to open one early, would you open one early?

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Speaker 2: Or did you like to wait?

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Speaker 3: Oh?

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Speaker 4: I'm sure I tried, but I wasn't allowed to do

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Speaker 4: it early. No, no way, I had to wait my turn,

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Speaker 4: That's right, discipline in my household.

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Speaker 5: Stucky.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, well I would. On Christmas morning, we used to

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Speaker 2: wait at the top of the stairs and we would

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Speaker 2: get called down. And I remember when I was like

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Speaker 2: one day one time when I snuck down, I didn't

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Speaker 2: even sleep as a kid, I've never slept. I stuck

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Speaker 2: down and I saw my mom and dad wrapping the

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Speaker 2: presence when I was like eight, And that's what I

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Speaker 2: found out. There was no standum sorry spoiler or to

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Speaker 2: anyone listening. But yeah, my brother's sister would try to

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Speaker 2: find gifts earlier. I never did. Although now my wife

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Speaker 2: and I whenever we buy each other anything, we just

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Speaker 2: give it. We don't even wrap it, we just stay here.

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Speaker 2: Here's a gift I got you in Mike. You were

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Speaker 2: you an early gift opener?

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Speaker 3: What did you like I was an only child, so

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Speaker 3: I was on a lot of solo or reconnaissance missions

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Speaker 3: to find those presents, like deep in a closet. But

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Speaker 3: very early on, like ten or eleven, I was like, yeah,

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Speaker 3: this isn't as fun.

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Speaker 6: I'm just gonna like let it all happen.

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Speaker 3: Either we're a Christmas Eve, open a gift or two

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Speaker 3: Christmas Day open the rest. But to extend your analogy

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Speaker 3: like Texas A and m Corpus Christy versimo, that's like

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Speaker 3: opening up a socking and finding the socks you're going

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Speaker 3: to get a couple of days early, Like why are

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Speaker 3: we really rushing and pushing the envelope on that one?

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Speaker 3: I agree with you. First four is not for me.

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Speaker 3: So when they talk about expanding this tournaments, there's plenty

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Speaker 3: to go around on Thursday and Friday that actually moves

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Speaker 3: the needle.

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Speaker 2: By the way, I'll take some socks now, I'm a

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Speaker 2: give me some. But all right, let's get into it.

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Speaker 2: What we're gonna do today is we're gonna go through

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Speaker 2: every single game on Thursday, but one. Alabama's opponent is TBD,

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Speaker 2: so we won't talk about that game. Not that everyone

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Speaker 2: I'm sure is itching to hear that. But we'll go

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Speaker 2: through them all and we'll give our thoughts. Then we'll

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Speaker 2: close out with one final best bet for the day.

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Speaker 2: So let's get things started with the first tip of

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Speaker 2: the tournament. West Virginia Maryland eight nine. Fun little regional

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Speaker 2: matchup in Birmingham, Alabama. This will tip twelve to fifteen

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Speaker 2: Eastern on CDs. West Virginia two point favored over under

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Speaker 2: one thirty seven and a half. I don't have to

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Speaker 2: I lean West Virginia a bit. I mean, Maryland has

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Speaker 2: been just not the same team away from College Park,

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Speaker 2: where they just put runs on teams. But we'll give

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Speaker 2: you a little nugget here and tell you what I

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Speaker 2: bet starting off the tournament with the it's not the

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Speaker 2: most fun bet, but the first half under. It's the

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Speaker 2: first game. You see this a lot with the noon tips.

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Speaker 2: There's some jitters there, especially the first game of the tournament.

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Speaker 2: Teams come out, they're a little nervous. You'll see the

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Speaker 2: shots just off and teams don't want to really run,

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Speaker 2: and it's just ugly early on. And Maryland by nature

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Speaker 2: plays slow outside the top three hunder justin tempo. They

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Speaker 2: don't turn it over. They can compete on the defensive glass,

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Speaker 2: so I think they match up well with West Virginia's offense,

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Speaker 2: and I think vice versas, so I like both matchups

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Speaker 2: for each defense. I think it'll start out slow and

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Speaker 2: to win. Over the past twenty five years, first half

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Speaker 2: unders in this noon time slot in the NCAA tournament

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Speaker 2: of under seventy, which this is is about sixty five,

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Speaker 2: they've gone under sixty six percent of the time. So

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Speaker 2: I'm going to start out. I'm gonna start things off

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Speaker 2: with the first half under. Now you can tweet me,

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Speaker 2: send me hate mail if it doesn't hit, and we

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Speaker 2: start off the tournament with it. Just an I mean,

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Speaker 2: who wants to lose a first half under as their

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Speaker 2: first bet of the tournament, But hey, that's what I'm doing.

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Speaker 2: These guys no real strong feel on either side.

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Speaker 5: Kai, no no strong feelings.

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Speaker 4: I guess slightly into West Virginia kind of trust their

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Speaker 4: physicality more trust Bob Huggins a lot more than Kevin Willard,

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Speaker 4: So I would prefer to put my money with Huggins.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to a game where we

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Speaker 2: do have strong takes, and that is a very popular underdog.

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Speaker 2: The Men of fir Furman Paladins, a thirteen seed, will

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Speaker 2: take on Virginia. This game will tip at twelve forty

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Speaker 2: Eastern on True TV. Shout out the True TV, the

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Speaker 2: home of Impractical Jokers and the first round of the

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Speaker 2: NCAA Tournament. Over under one thirty one and a half.

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Speaker 2: This game gives me vibes of two years ago. One

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Speaker 2: of my favorite bets of the tournament was Ohio as

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Speaker 2: a thirteen seed against the Virginia team that was a four.

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Speaker 2: Became extremely trendy, and guess what, Ohio still won. Trendy

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Speaker 2: dogs can win. I think Furman matches up really well here.

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Speaker 2: I'll share my thoughts in a sec. Kai. Let me

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Speaker 2: throw it to you first. You're a big fan of

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Speaker 2: the Dins.

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Speaker 5: Here I am. This is the match of Furman wanted.

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Speaker 4: I think number one Virginia is not super athletic, and

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Speaker 4: that's the type of team Furman really struggles against. NC

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Speaker 4: State beat Ferman this year. By about nineteen. NC State

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Speaker 4: much more athletic team than Virginia. Obviously, Virginia plays the

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Speaker 4: pack line defense. They force opponents to shoot over the

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Speaker 4: top of them. That's what Furman likes to do. While

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Speaker 4: they are awesome inside. They are great from behind the

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Speaker 4: arc as well. Bob Ritchie, their coach, is a data

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Speaker 4: ball type of guy.

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Speaker 5: Three more than two.

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Speaker 4: They have a senior point guard in Mike Bothwell, who's incredible.

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Speaker 4: Virginia's an experienced team, no doubt. I love Tony Bennett absolutely,

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Speaker 4: but I like Furman here. I like them getting hot,

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Speaker 4: I like them advancing, and I love Bob Ritchie stucky.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. Well. Also Jay Slawson is a hell of player.

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Speaker 2: Two fifth year seniors on this team. And then Pegeese

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Speaker 2: their other guard who started to play really well in

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Speaker 2: the second half of the season. But yet they play

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Speaker 2: five out. Not as sharp of the shooting team as

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Speaker 2: last year. They lost two of their sharper shooters. They're

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Speaker 2: around thirty seven thirty eight percent last year, but they're

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Speaker 2: still around thirty five thirty six this year. And it's

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Speaker 2: everybody right they play. It's not four guys who could

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Speaker 2: shoot and then one who can at all. It's five

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Speaker 2: guys on the court who can all shoot around thirty

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Speaker 2: five thirty six percent, which is what they shoot as

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Speaker 2: a team. And that's what you need against this Virginia

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Speaker 2: defense that packs it. And also you know Virginia plays

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Speaker 2: one of the slowest paces in the country that favors

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Speaker 2: the dog limited possessions, and you know, Furman does want

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Speaker 2: to get out and run nine. They do get out

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Speaker 2: in transition, they won't have that opportunity here. Virginia doesn't

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Speaker 2: let you do that. But they're ninetieth percentile in transition

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Speaker 2: offense and ninety percentile and half court offense. They're very

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Speaker 2: comfortable in the half court. They run great stuff, very

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Speaker 2: experienced team, and the Virginia offense it's just yeah, and

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Speaker 2: it's not an elite athletic explosive offense, which is what

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Speaker 2: would worry me with Furman, because Furman's defense does have

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Speaker 2: some holes and they they're a little finesse, right if

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Speaker 2: they they could be bullied in the post. That's not

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Speaker 2: really what who Virginia is. We're gonna go consensus here, Mike.

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Speaker 6: Oh, absolutely.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Virginia's offense is stuck in the mud. They

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Speaker 3: having cracked sixty four points and eight of their last

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Speaker 3: eleven games. And Bothwell and Slawson, as you mentioned, they're

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Speaker 3: both lou Henson Award finalists. That's the mid Major player

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Speaker 3: of the year. So their overall you know, ceiling in

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Speaker 3: terms of their superstar factor for March Madness is as

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Speaker 3: good as you're going to get from a mid major.

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Speaker 3: And one final nugget to add in for the Dens,

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Speaker 3: they don't turn the ball over, so you know by doing.

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Speaker 6: That they're going to limit the possessions even more.

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Speaker 3: I think if they can score seventy points in this game,

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Speaker 3: they're going to win it, and I feel really comfortable

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Speaker 3: about that. I'm also going to throw out the fact

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Speaker 3: that they are eight to one over in the market

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Speaker 3: right now to make the Sweet sixteen. I think that's

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Speaker 3: tremendous value. They might not even have to play another

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Speaker 3: single digit seed in the round of thirty two, and

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Speaker 3: I want to jinx it. But their path here is

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Speaker 3: pretty much tailor made. And at eight to one, that

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Speaker 3: absolutely caught my attention.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, the because what would wire me like they should?

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Speaker 2: Penn State came out and was like ten to ten

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Speaker 2: from three to start. I think that game was on

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Speaker 2: a neutral in Charleston, and they almost came back and

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Speaker 2: won that game. Look, they did get destroyed by NC State,

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Speaker 2: which is a bit concern. They're down like thirty in

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Speaker 2: that game. But MC State's more of like a athletic

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Speaker 2: you know, can overwhelm you, and Virginia is just not

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Speaker 2: that Now as far as the second round is concerned

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Speaker 2: with Furman, we won't have podcast this weekend. We will

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Speaker 2: have live shows Big Bets on Campus Live Thursday, Friday, Saturday,

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Speaker 2: Sunday ten thirty and you start to make sure you

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Speaker 2: check out those shows for previous and obviously well have

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Speaker 2: tons of content on the actionnwber dot com, the Action

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Speaker 2: Network Gap. But I think would worry about about Furman

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Speaker 2: and Kyle. You're a big richie guy and like this

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Speaker 2: Firman team as do I. I was happy to see them

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Speaker 2: make the NCAA tournament after some heartbreak for these fifty

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Speaker 2: year seniors. They would play the winner if they win

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Speaker 2: this game, and I think they're a live to do so.

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Speaker 2: They will play the winner of Charleston and San Diego State.

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Speaker 2: I think they have a much better chance of beating

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Speaker 2: Charleston because it would be more of the game that

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Speaker 2: they like to play, whereas I worry about the physicality

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Speaker 2: of San Diego State and then bullying them a bit.

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Speaker 2: Would you agree with that?

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Speaker 4: I would, But man, Charleston's physical too, and they're also

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Speaker 4: a team for.

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Speaker 2: But that'll be more like an up and down.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, game right, certainly something they're more used to. And

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Speaker 4: Furman's used to playing some slower teams in the SoCon

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Speaker 4: as well. Like you said, they're comfortable in the half court.

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Speaker 4: So I'm not worried about Virginia, you know, playing their style.

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Speaker 4: I think Furman can adjust and adapt to it.

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Speaker 2: Playing Virginia might be good prep for if they win.

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Speaker 2: For playing San Diego, Yeah, it's true in a way.

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Speaker 2: But you ahead of Mike.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Brian Dutcher, I have a lot of respect in

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Speaker 3: terms of being a game planner. If they end up

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Speaker 3: drawing San Diego State that's the matchup, I worry a

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Speaker 3: bit more about it. I know that Matt Bradley has

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Speaker 3: to shoulder so much of the offensive load for the Aztecs,

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Speaker 3: but overall, I would prefer to see the Cougars in

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Speaker 3: the round of thirty two.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it would be a really fun game to watch.

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Speaker 2: All right. Let's move on to a game where we're

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Speaker 2: gonna have some disagreement here. You toss State Missouri, you

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Speaker 2: toa state one point favorite over under one fifty five.

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Speaker 2: You toss State the ten seed is a slight favorite

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Speaker 2: here over Missouri's games on TNT in Sacramento, California. This

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Speaker 2: is the analytics versus the athletes. I called into your

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Speaker 2: radio show with you the other night and I was like,

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Speaker 2: curios to your thoughts in this game. The analytics love

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Speaker 2: Utah State and they don't really like Missouri. But Zori

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Speaker 2: has a trump card here in a significant athletic advantage,

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Speaker 2: and you think that'll ultimately be the difference. So I'll

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Speaker 2: let you state your case first.

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Speaker 5: I do.

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Speaker 4: That's that's the first point. Yeah, Utah State they struggled

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Speaker 4: against athleticism. Just look at the teams they've lost you

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Speaker 4: this year, San Diego State three times. Weaber State's a

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Speaker 4: pretty athletic team. SMU is a pretty athletic team. They

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Speaker 4: just don't do well against high level athletes. Kobe Brown

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Speaker 4: is going to be a matchup nightmare for UTA State,

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Speaker 4: both in the perimeter and if he decides to go inside. Secondly,

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Speaker 4: Utah State can't really exploit Massoo's weaknesses, which is going

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Speaker 4: inside and dominating on the block and grabbing offensive rebounds.

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Speaker 4: They don't go for offensive rebounds. It's not their strength.

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Speaker 4: Mazoo does give up a lot of threes, but also

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Speaker 4: consider Mazoo.

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Speaker 5: Has to help down a lot in the SEC.

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Speaker 4: They have to clog the paint, they have to give

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Speaker 4: up the three in the SEC, and they should. The

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Speaker 4: SEC is the worst shooting team or excuse me, in

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Speaker 4: conference in America. So I think they can adjust their

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Speaker 4: style a bit and get out in three point line

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Speaker 4: and deny that a little bit more against Utah State.

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Speaker 4: And on the other end, I trust some Zoo to

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Speaker 4: score against Utah States defense.

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Speaker 2: All Right, it was a strong case, Mike, maybe we'll

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Speaker 2: have you break the tire, said, who made a stronger case? Well,

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Speaker 2: I agree, Klee. Brown's gonna be a nightmare to match

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Speaker 2: up with them. By the way, I bet Utah State

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Speaker 2: here a bit of a small because I figure I

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Speaker 2: assume I'm gonna be able to get a better number live.

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Speaker 2: There's gonna be a lot of points in this game,

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Speaker 2: I would lean over. Yeah, And there's gonna be runs, right,

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Speaker 2: There's be tons of threes. Both these teams chuck three.

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Speaker 2: So you're gonna have one team you go to twelve. Oh, run,

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Speaker 2: it doesn't matter. Like team's up ten, it doesn't matter.

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Speaker 2: They could be right back in the game within two minutes.

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Speaker 2: So both teams Utah State has done a better job

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Speaker 2: of running teams off the three Utah State that both

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Speaker 2: these teams can really shoot the ball. But I think

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Speaker 2: that you know what, Missouri. One of the strengths of

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Speaker 2: Missouri and they're very these are I love this coaching matchup.

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Speaker 2: By the way, I think we've got a really good

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Speaker 2: field of first round coaching matchups all across the board

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Speaker 2: of just I love this coach and this coach, which

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Speaker 2: will make for some fascinating x'es and o's battles. But look, Missouri,

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Speaker 2: one of the things that they do is they mix

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Speaker 2: up their defense. They're gonna throw a lot of zone

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Speaker 2: out there and they're gonna press you, and you can't

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Speaker 2: really zone Utah State. That is a disaster woid mappens.

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Speaker 2: So I'll be curious see how they play this on

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Speaker 2: the perimeter. Do they go more man they don't have

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Speaker 2: to help down inside and you can't press Uta State.

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Speaker 2: They grow They graded out ninety nine percent tile against

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Speaker 2: the press. Now you could say, look, they don't play

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Speaker 2: these super athletic teams like Missouri, But yeah, I just

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Speaker 2: I trust Utah State to make more shots and they're

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Speaker 2: going to get more open looks based on what I've

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Speaker 2: seen this year, but both I highly respect both coaches.

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Speaker 2: I also like the over, and I don't mind trading

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Speaker 2: this game. Like Utah State goes up eleven and one early,

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Speaker 2: you can get Missouri plus four and a half right

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Speaker 2: off the bat. Missouri makes a run, you come back

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Speaker 2: with Utah State plus five and a half. Like that.

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Speaker 2: That's I think that's a great approach to this game. Mike,

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Speaker 2: analytics or athletes hind to.

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Speaker 3: Goo athletes, but I do like your insight into live

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Speaker 3: betting and how that you know this can play out

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Speaker 3: a little bit more like an NBA game where you're

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Speaker 3: gonna wait for the teams to make the runs. I

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Speaker 3: lean more towards the over. You know, one to fifty

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Speaker 3: four and a half doesn't scare me off. I think

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Speaker 3: this game is going to be played in the eighties,

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Speaker 3: to be honest, So I'll I'll go ahead and lean

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Speaker 3: with Miszoo, but I'm gonna keep my money on the

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Speaker 3: sideline until we at least get four or five months

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Speaker 3: into it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I and I might look live over too. Like,

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Speaker 2: so this game is in the afternoon, like early afternoon,

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Speaker 2: so there might be some like and cold shooting early.

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Speaker 2: But I think once now, look when these totals that

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Speaker 2: are super high, it's tough in the tournament because at

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Speaker 2: times you need a lot to go right. You can't have.

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Speaker 2: You know, if if the game is like tied with

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Speaker 2: eight to go, and you are on an overpace and

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Speaker 2: it's like it's the NCAA tournament, then all of a sudden,

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Speaker 2: it like you'll see it just the game will slow

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Speaker 2: down and like every possession means so much more, and

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Speaker 2: then all of a sudden, these teams get like tighter

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Speaker 2: and then they just start value on possession. It's not

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Speaker 2: as up and down, and it could start slow. You know,

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Speaker 2: in Sacramento, New Gym, maybe some jitters early. So it

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Speaker 2: is a high number. But I agree. I think this game,

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Speaker 2: if you play this one hundred times more times than not.

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Speaker 2: It's played in the eighties. So if it does get

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Speaker 2: if they do get off to a slow start, there's

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Speaker 2: so many passed offense here and I think the pace

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Speaker 2: for the most part will be fast. So if this

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Speaker 2: is like you know, the teams are oh of nine

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Speaker 2: combined from three, it's gonna be a ton of threes

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Speaker 2: in this game. To start the game. Look for a

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Speaker 2: live over. I think this is a great trading game,

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Speaker 2: as evidenced by the total all right, good stuff. Let's

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Speaker 2: move on to a little less intriguing of a game.

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Speaker 2: Howard is dancing. They will take on Kansas in Des Moines. Yes,

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Speaker 2: game will tip a two eastern on TVs. Kansas twenty

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Speaker 2: two point favorite over under one forty five and a half.

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Speaker 2: I don't really have a strong take here, Mike, and

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Speaker 2: you don't either, Hi anything on Kansas and Howard. Can

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Speaker 2: mister Settle in company for the Bison keep this within

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Speaker 2: the number.

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Speaker 4: I tend toly know. I leank towards Kansas here. Don't

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Speaker 4: really expect them to struggle. Howard against kimpom Top one

351
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Speaker 4: fifty competition this year lost to Kentucky by thirty two,

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Speaker 4: James Madison twenty six, Belmont twenty three, Yale forty six,

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Speaker 4: and then VC. They actually hung with VC, they lost

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Speaker 4: by ten. They certainly have a great player in Lajah Hawkins,

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Speaker 4: also a Settle, but they're simply gonna be overmatched. The

356
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Speaker 4: turnover is gonna be a huge problem. Three hundred and

357
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Speaker 4: fifty six in the country in turnover rate. Cave's defense

358
00:16:58,560 --> 00:17:03,120
Speaker 4: this year than excellent. THECE some some ball handling issues

359
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Speaker 4: in the talent levels. They're just not close per usual

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Speaker 4: in a one sixteen matchup.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and they lost by ten DCU with who didn't

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Speaker 2: have their best player. Yeah, so that's worth noting. Yeah

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Speaker 2: that a fifty point loss to Yale is pretty scary

364
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Speaker 2: to know that going in if you had a ticket

365
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Speaker 2: of plus twenty two. So yeah, Kansas might be able

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Speaker 2: to name it there. Let's move on to the another

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00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,399
Speaker 2: really intriguing in this is the pace clash that for

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Speaker 2: when this they showed this, you know, sitting down watching

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Speaker 2: the bracket, I fell down my stairs by the way,

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Speaker 2: so I was up getting a water and I had

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Speaker 2: I had my whole setup down my basement. I write down,

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Speaker 2: I have a bracket filled out, and I write down

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Speaker 2: the matchups like it's like it's two thousand and six.

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Speaker 2: Like I can't I won't be able to get one

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Speaker 2: on the internet in like two minutes, but I just

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Speaker 2: like to look at it right away. So I have

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Speaker 2: it like a a written bracket and then I start

378
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Speaker 2: filling it in. So I heard them saying like, and

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Speaker 2: all right, now we reveal, and I like it was

380
00:18:07,280 --> 00:18:09,679
Speaker 2: a minute late. So I grabbed my water and I

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00:18:09,720 --> 00:18:13,399
Speaker 2: sprinted down the stairs and I slipped and fell all

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Speaker 2: the way down my stairs. Luckily I didn't get hurt,

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Speaker 2: got up and ran to the couch. A what a

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Speaker 2: what a champion and Grid I showed and wrote down

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Speaker 2: the bracket.

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Speaker 5: You deserve a medal or holiday, or at least a

387
00:18:25,119 --> 00:18:26,120
Speaker 5: cuddle from somebody.

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Speaker 2: Well, when I saw this, the first thing I said

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Speaker 2: and sweeted, I was like, pace clash. This is Charleston

390
00:18:31,640 --> 00:18:36,639
Speaker 2: san Diego State. Really fascinating five twelve match up. San

391
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Speaker 2: Diego State's a five point favorite over under one forty

392
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Speaker 2: one and a half. This game will be at three

393
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Speaker 2: ten Eastern on True TV in Orlando, Florida. Hi.

394
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Speaker 5: Yeah, it's not a bad draw for Charleston. It kind

395
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Speaker 5: of sucks.

396
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Speaker 4: I like both these teams a lot, but what Charleston

397
00:18:51,800 --> 00:18:54,400
Speaker 4: had to avoid in this first first match, in my opinion,

398
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,760
Speaker 4: was an explosive offense that would welcome their pace, and

399
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,560
Speaker 4: that's not San Diego State. There's certainly be on offense

400
00:19:00,600 --> 00:19:02,680
Speaker 4: they have been in the past, but they still prefer

401
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 4: a half court style. They're not, for instance, in Alabama

402
00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 4: or in Iowa or a Gonzaga to which I would

403
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,119
Speaker 4: think Charleston would struggle to keep it close because they

404
00:19:10,160 --> 00:19:12,120
Speaker 4: do love to run up and down. The three point

405
00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:13,960
Speaker 4: looks are going to be there for Charleston. They had

406
00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 4: not shot that well this season, but they do have shooters,

407
00:19:17,280 --> 00:19:18,800
Speaker 4: and they're ninth in the country and three point in

408
00:19:18,840 --> 00:19:21,520
Speaker 4: temp rate. They let the ball fly. Pat Kelce another

409
00:19:21,560 --> 00:19:24,600
Speaker 4: one of those analytic style coaches. San Diego State two

410
00:19:24,680 --> 00:19:26,159
Speaker 4: hundred and eightieth in the country and three point in

411
00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,840
Speaker 4: tenth rate allowed. They will pack it in. They will

412
00:19:28,880 --> 00:19:31,320
Speaker 4: tend to give up looks from the outside force. Charleston

413
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 4: beat them with jumpers. Both teams are pretty deep. Again,

414
00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 4: I like, really, I really do like both coaches, but

415
00:19:37,680 --> 00:19:40,159
Speaker 4: I like this Charleston team a little bit more. They

416
00:19:40,200 --> 00:19:42,960
Speaker 4: beat Virginia Tech in the non con kent State Colorado

417
00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:44,919
Speaker 4: State by ten. I think they can hang here with

418
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,920
Speaker 4: the San Diego State within five five and a half.

419
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:51,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, they like so Charleston, you think that they're comfortable

420
00:19:51,040 --> 00:19:52,720
Speaker 2: enough in a half court like, so, yeah, you're gonna

421
00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:55,919
Speaker 2: have to make some jump shots to beat San Diego State,

422
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,120
Speaker 2: just based on the their scheme. And by the way,

423
00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:02,520
Speaker 2: Matt Bradley like he's a high variants nature or part

424
00:20:02,520 --> 00:20:06,080
Speaker 2: of this game. If he's hot, like, he'll put a

425
00:20:06,160 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 2: run on any team, and then he could also shoot

426
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 2: San Diego State out of a game if he's off.

427
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:15,680
Speaker 2: But charleston't. Look, they're extremely deep and they come at

428
00:20:15,720 --> 00:20:19,320
Speaker 2: you in waves. But and look, they have guys like

429
00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,960
Speaker 2: Larson and Smith who aren't great statistically they're thirty two thirds,

430
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,320
Speaker 2: but they can get red hot too. Charleston just has

431
00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:30,280
Speaker 2: so many avenues to different offense. Right, They're not uber

432
00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 2: relyingt on one guy. It's a very hard prep. If

433
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 2: one guy's having an off night, they can get offense

434
00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,040
Speaker 2: from somewhere else, which I really like. Against a great

435
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:43,159
Speaker 2: game planner, which Dutcher is, and a great defense, right,

436
00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 2: they can't just focus on let's just take this one

437
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:48,120
Speaker 2: or two guys away. Charleston could come at you in waves.

438
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 2: You think that they'll like. The one thing that does

439
00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:52,639
Speaker 2: worry me about teams that like to get up and

440
00:20:52,640 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: down against teams that are that play slower is it

441
00:20:55,880 --> 00:20:58,440
Speaker 2: might not necessarily worry me, but more times than not

442
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:02,080
Speaker 2: in the tournament, the game will be slower, and the

443
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 2: team that is slower will control the tech can't control

444
00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 2: the tempo a little easier. But do you think Charleston's

445
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:08,440
Speaker 2: more than comfortable in the half court here?

446
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:09,400
Speaker 5: I do.

447
00:21:09,600 --> 00:21:13,120
Speaker 4: And they're talented enough to hang it right, and they're physical.

448
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,760
Speaker 4: This is not like a only offense type of team.

449
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:18,119
Speaker 4: They're really good defensively as well. They can go punch

450
00:21:18,119 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 4: for punch with San Diego State.

451
00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,240
Speaker 3: I also throw out here in terms of the committee,

452
00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: like I know that the Mountain West has not let

453
00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 3: the world on fire in the tournament in recent years,

454
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:30,520
Speaker 3: but like, what are they doing sending the regular season

455
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:33,959
Speaker 3: and conference tournament champion all the way to Orlando. So

456
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 3: one of the things I crunch the numbers in the

457
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 3: offseason since twenty fourteen, if you take all the pods,

458
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:42,200
Speaker 3: the teams with the four teams with the longest travel

459
00:21:42,560 --> 00:21:46,240
Speaker 3: are thirty nine percent against the spread in that opening round,

460
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 3: the round of sixty four.

461
00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:48,080
Speaker 5: And this is one of.

462
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:49,840
Speaker 6: The games that hits the system.

463
00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:51,639
Speaker 2: So I'm going to go Marry too.

464
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 3: Mary's is absolutely host. And then add on top for

465
00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,080
Speaker 3: the Gaels the body clock. It's an eleven am tip

466
00:21:58,119 --> 00:21:59,840
Speaker 3: off for the Gaels on the body clock and all

467
00:22:00,080 --> 00:22:02,919
Speaker 3: they're gonna have absolutely no fans there. It's ridiculous, but

468
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:05,119
Speaker 3: San Diego State is in a similar boat, and I

469
00:22:05,160 --> 00:22:07,840
Speaker 3: just don't understand why the committee did them so dirty considering,

470
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:09,840
Speaker 3: you know, how well they played and spent the majority

471
00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 3: of the season in the top twenty five.

472
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, Mary's it's the West region and they are playing

473
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:18,919
Speaker 2: in Albany. Make that makes sense? Yeah, Mount West. You

474
00:22:18,960 --> 00:22:21,200
Speaker 2: know you didn't even mention this kind of Mountain West.

475
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,719
Speaker 2: You just alluded to it, like fourteen thirty five and

476
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 2: one against the spread in their past fifty turning games

477
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,840
Speaker 2: oh and nine against the spread in their past nine.

478
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:31,840
Speaker 2: So yeah, you're fading Mountain West a couple of times here.

479
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:36,399
Speaker 2: I went with Utah State, So that does scare me

480
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 2: a bit. But they can't not cover forever, or maybe that's.

481
00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 5: That's right, they're due.

482
00:22:42,840 --> 00:22:45,080
Speaker 2: Then pore we go any further. As a reminder, Big

483
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,800
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506
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507
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509
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510
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511
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:13,720
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512
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513
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 2: in Nevada in New York. All right, let's move on

514
00:24:20,200 --> 00:24:25,960
Speaker 2: to our next game, and let's talk a little Ivy Princeton.

515
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:31,560
Speaker 2: We'll take on number two seed Arizona out in Sacramento, California.

516
00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 2: Arizona's a fourteen point favorite over under one fifty four

517
00:24:38,040 --> 00:24:41,520
Speaker 2: escape a start a four to ten eastern on TNT. Mike,

518
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 2: Princeton was your darling all year. You backed them with

519
00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 2: a lot of success. I'm still bitter about Penn because

520
00:24:52,280 --> 00:24:55,199
Speaker 2: I wanted to see Penn dance and I had a

521
00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 2: future on them, and I do think that Penn kind

522
00:24:58,240 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 2: of got hosed by the refs in the final minute.

523
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 2: But whatever, I gotta get over it. What under the

524
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:08,200
Speaker 2: bridge are you backing your beloved tigers here against Arizona?

525
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 3: Believe it or not, this podcast is not brought to

526
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,399
Speaker 3: you by like Southwest Airlines or something. But I have another,

527
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 3: you know, distance mileage trip situation to discuss. They're sending

528
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 3: the Ivleague chaps all the way to Sacramento, so it's

529
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 3: another one that triggers the system. But just in general,

530
00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,800
Speaker 3: on the floor, I thought tosan Owoma was somebody who

531
00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 3: needed to draw some opponents that didn't have athletic bigs

532
00:25:29,400 --> 00:25:31,280
Speaker 3: that could make him make it difficult for him to

533
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:34,199
Speaker 3: run that point forward situation. Unfortunately, he's going to run

534
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 3: into Tubllis and Ballow and when it comes to their

535
00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:40,400
Speaker 3: secondary options, I'm just not as scared of them, particularly

536
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 3: at this price point fourteen and a half I jumped

537
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 3: on it.

538
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 6: I got thirteen and a half. I'd play it up

539
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 6: to sixteen.

540
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 3: I thought this number should be closer to like what

541
00:25:47,720 --> 00:25:50,720
Speaker 3: Kansas is laying against Howard, because I do think that

542
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 3: Arizona can, for lack of a better word, that's kind

543
00:25:53,560 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 3: of like a neck crack game. This from them to

544
00:25:55,560 --> 00:25:59,159
Speaker 3: start feeling good about themselves, get some momentum into the weekend.

545
00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 3: So I know the kerk Creasa is a little bit

546
00:26:01,400 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 3: banged up, but I don't They don't need him to

547
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,920
Speaker 3: be pumping in many points in this game to cover,

548
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 3: so Princeton may be able to slow the tempo a

549
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 3: little bit early on. So maybe a race to ten

550
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:15,160
Speaker 3: if you want to get like really gutsy with something

551
00:26:15,200 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 3: that has you know, plus ev. But in terms of

552
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 3: the overall spread, I love the Wildcats here. I think

553
00:26:20,840 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 3: they put it together down the stretch.

554
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 6: So I like him in this bub.

555
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 2: I'm i'm a I initially leaned Arizona. I'm afraid of

556
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,760
Speaker 2: them here. I mean Chris is hurt, and he went

557
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 2: like a couple of games, he mean two threes against

558
00:26:33,880 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 2: UC like, but a couple games ago he was like,

559
00:26:35,119 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 2: oh of seven, like he's playing Princeton in the first round.

560
00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 2: I could see him going like, oh of ten from

561
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 2: three like he's I could see christ Is just throwing

562
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:42,560
Speaker 2: up at.

563
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,880
Speaker 3: Least with at least with the shoulder injury. They could

564
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 3: be like, Okay, you're not right, like come on, sit

565
00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:47,359
Speaker 3: on the bench.

566
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, But I always worry about him, like just shooting

567
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 2: them out of a out of the tournament, especially now

568
00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:58,880
Speaker 2: that he can't shoot. But it's an interesting like, yeah,

569
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 2: Princeton might be able to slow it down. They have

570
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,680
Speaker 2: a guy who's gonna play professionally somewhere in Tosan, who's

571
00:27:03,720 --> 00:27:07,160
Speaker 2: just he's excellent skilled, he's top fifty Assister eight runs

572
00:27:07,200 --> 00:27:11,240
Speaker 2: their entire offense. Now granted in the IVY League, you

573
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:13,680
Speaker 2: gotta double him and he gets a ton of attention

574
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,199
Speaker 2: and then he can kick out to their shooters. They

575
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:19,120
Speaker 2: are capable three point shot team, not elite, but they

576
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:22,120
Speaker 2: have guys who can get hot. Like Langborg was forty

577
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 2: percent last year, he was down a thirty one percent

578
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:27,639
Speaker 2: this year, so he's fully capable. I kept going back

579
00:27:27,680 --> 00:27:29,840
Speaker 2: and forth on hot, like can Tossan give their big

580
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 2: problems with how he can play and he's a little

581
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 2: mobile or is he just there? Is he just gonna

582
00:27:36,440 --> 00:27:38,159
Speaker 2: be shut down? And then they can stay out on

583
00:27:38,200 --> 00:27:41,439
Speaker 2: the shooters. And then also I worry about Princeton's transition defense,

584
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: and then I worry about tosanbody can't shoot free throws

585
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:47,479
Speaker 2: if he does get the line monitor that, but does

586
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:51,160
Speaker 2: he get in foul trouble here? And then if he does, then,

587
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:54,320
Speaker 2: for instance, really in trouble here and Arizona could just

588
00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 2: turn on the transition jets and then it's good night. Kay.

589
00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 2: Any quick thoughts on this.

590
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:03,159
Speaker 4: I like Princeton first half. I think IVY teams do

591
00:28:03,240 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 4: really well in the tournament because their offenses are so

592
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 4: intricate and hard to prepare for. So the Princeton offense

593
00:28:09,320 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 4: with all it's cutting, it's counterpoints, it's many different optionality.

594
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:18,720
Speaker 4: I suppose on the offensive end, you can't really practice

595
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,960
Speaker 4: that and prepare for that if you haven't seen it

596
00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 4: a lot. So I think that's a big advantage for

597
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 4: Princeton coming in early on toast On, I do think

598
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 4: has an advantage against Arizona's bigs by the way they

599
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 4: use him. They play them at the elbow, they play

600
00:28:31,040 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 4: them on the top of the key right to initiate offense.

601
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 4: There's not going to be much in the pain. He

602
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:37,480
Speaker 4: can chew a little bit from out there too. Not great,

603
00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:41,280
Speaker 4: but he's a threat. Do I think Arizona adjusts at

604
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 4: halftime and then rolls in the second half, Yes, But

605
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 4: I do like the way Princeton does Tennislow the game

606
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 4: down play in the half court. They're also an incredible

607
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 4: defensive rebounding team. Arizona's a lot bigger. They're great offensive.

608
00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 4: They can definitely control the glass. But against Princeton, who

609
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 4: team rebounds like the way they do, I think they

610
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 4: can hold them off at least for twenty minutes.

611
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Princeton. It's a hard team for me to

612
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: get a handle on, just because Tosson can be so

613
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,680
Speaker 2: dominant against in fear Comedy's really good in these But

614
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: they play such like their schedule is kind of a joke, Like,

615
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 2: who's the best team that they played this year?

616
00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 5: Yeah? Iona?

617
00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 2: Iona? Probably six on a neutral court to Iona, and

618
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 2: they were in that game for a while. But yeah,

619
00:29:30,920 --> 00:29:34,400
Speaker 2: like Iona is probably the only top Hofstra I guess

620
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: they played in the first game the other lost by

621
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 2: six at home. But their schedule is just so it's

622
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,440
Speaker 2: it's just their don comms outside the top three hundred,

623
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 2: and then you're playing like not very non at there's

624
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,360
Speaker 2: a lot of you know, you compare the athleticism and

625
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 2: talent gap between teams and the IVY and Arizona, it's

626
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:54,920
Speaker 2: it's hard to really.

627
00:29:55,320 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 3: Additionally, additionally to they've been sped up multiple times yes,

628
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,640
Speaker 3: they want to play at a more methodical pace, but

629
00:30:02,680 --> 00:30:04,520
Speaker 3: you look at it. Dartmouth was able to do it,

630
00:30:04,600 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 3: Cornell was able to do it, Yale was able to

631
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 3: do it, and in some cases they coaxed him into

632
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:12,400
Speaker 3: a faster pace. And Princeton lost and lost handily. So

633
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 3: I look at that as this is not a team

634
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,479
Speaker 3: that's going to, you know, throw the clamps on the

635
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,720
Speaker 3: entire tempo and be able to grind out a ten

636
00:30:20,760 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 3: point loss to Arizona. So in general, there's some other

637
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,680
Speaker 3: teams in this tournament that I do fear from that perspective,

638
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: A team like you know, Saint Mary's that is super

639
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,640
Speaker 3: comfortable playing at that slower pace and just has a

640
00:30:32,640 --> 00:30:34,680
Speaker 3: way of shutting down your running game. I don't see

641
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: that necessarily in Princeton.

642
00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, that does concern me. I don't think I can

643
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,360
Speaker 2: get there at Princeton. I could see the first half

644
00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: and we'll go for the double. First half in game,

645
00:30:43,800 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 2: Princeton's transition defense is rates out extremely poorly, and then

646
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 2: you look at who they played and it's like, oh God,

647
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,040
Speaker 2: if Arizona gets out and runs, it's going to be

648
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:54,280
Speaker 2: a fourth.

649
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: Noting too, we didn't mention ball has got a broken hands.

650
00:30:57,360 --> 00:31:00,520
Speaker 4: He's playing with one hand. We have mentioned Gresa, but

651
00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 4: Arizona's pretty banged up.

652
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:07,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, that's true, and that's that's worth mentioning. Just

653
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,239
Speaker 2: when you're filling out your bracket. And if you like,

654
00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 2: a lot of people are gonna have Chalky Arizona Alabama.

655
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,160
Speaker 2: But maybe if you want to get a little risky,

656
00:31:15,200 --> 00:31:19,920
Speaker 2: you have Arizona going out. I'm, you know, Princeton, well

657
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 2: coached team. Maybe if you have some late, if you

658
00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:30,280
Speaker 2: want to stay in it. If this gets dicey, Ballo's

659
00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 2: in there, hack a Balo. I can't shoot free throws

660
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:37,719
Speaker 2: only as one fifty throw shooter. So if this is

661
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,000
Speaker 2: like tight late somehow, with like eight to go and

662
00:31:41,040 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: I'm Princeton, I start found I start hacking Ballo. Obviously

663
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,200
Speaker 2: not with tosaund but I start putting them on the

664
00:31:47,240 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 2: line AGEAD make your free throws, and then I'd just

665
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 2: I'd sag off Prisa of the entire game. All right, anyway,

666
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:59,560
Speaker 2: enough of Princeton Arizona. Let's move on to our next game.

667
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:03,480
Speaker 2: This is two Enigmas Illinois Arkansas in the eight to

668
00:32:03,640 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: nine in des moinn Iowa. Arkansas is a two point

669
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 2: favorite over Under one forty three and a half. This

670
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: is the first game out. I think this game will

671
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,719
Speaker 2: be played fair. Look, these are teams I can't figure out.

672
00:32:13,760 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 2: I mean, Arkansas is arguably three first round draft picks,

673
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 2: super talented. Past years, they've gone through the lead eight.

674
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:23,480
Speaker 2: Musselman's obviously proven he can take teams deep in this format.

675
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 2: Illinois a lot of talent, But I don't Underwood. I

676
00:32:27,440 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 2: think hates this team and they just have no plan.

677
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 2: Like they're a really good two point offense, but they

678
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 2: just chuck threes and they can't shoot outside of like

679
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:37,880
Speaker 2: if Matthew Myers hot making like his fadeaway step back.

680
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: They're pretty good in the half court, which doesn't make

681
00:32:40,720 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: sense because they can't shoot the three. But they keep

682
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 2: trying to run and they're not efficient when they run. Like,

683
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 2: I don't know what this team is doing. It makes

684
00:32:47,080 --> 00:32:48,960
Speaker 2: no sense to me. There's gonna be a lot of

685
00:32:49,000 --> 00:32:52,080
Speaker 2: bricks in this game. These are two teams that can't

686
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 2: shoot from three. I would I think that Arkansas has

687
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: more talent overall, and I trust much more than under

688
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 2: especially this I don't think under when this team are

689
00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 2: connected and I think that's ultimately what's But do I

690
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,200
Speaker 2: really trust Arkansas? Every time I want to trust them,

691
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:11,719
Speaker 2: they levey down. But I wish I had a lot

692
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:13,280
Speaker 2: of faith. And who's gonna win this game? Similar to

693
00:33:13,440 --> 00:33:15,560
Speaker 2: FAU Memphis, because I think the winner of this game

694
00:33:15,600 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 2: could give Kansas problems, especially Arkansas, but I think Memphis

695
00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 2: could beat I think Memphis or FAU could beat Purdue,

696
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: And I think either one of these teams could be Kansas.

697
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:29,240
Speaker 2: A little more confident in Arkansas beating Kansas in Illinois.

698
00:33:29,560 --> 00:33:31,959
Speaker 2: But if I had a really strong condiction in my bracket,

699
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 2: I could move to one of these teams to the

700
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 2: sweet sixteens. I think Purdue and Kansas are the most

701
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 2: vulnerable ones, but the eight nines is so tough to pick. Mike,

702
00:33:39,480 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on this game?

703
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 6: I mean, I agree with your overall assessment.

704
00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 3: I mean Musselman, though he's been the head coach for

705
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 3: eight years, he's gone to the Sweet sixteen or deeper

706
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 3: three times, so he's proven it in a tournament setting. Obviously,

707
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,360
Speaker 3: Arkansas's roster has a lot of upside. You know NBA

708
00:33:54,480 --> 00:33:57,440
Speaker 3: talent Nick Smith Junior, et cetera. And then I look

709
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,680
Speaker 3: on the Illinois side, they go three and five down

710
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 3: the street, so they need a double ot to beat Michigan.

711
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 3: Mayer has played a lot better, but when I look

712
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 3: at Shannon Junior, he's so foul shot dependent to be

713
00:34:08,120 --> 00:34:10,839
Speaker 3: a big impact offensively. But then on the other side

714
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 3: of things, Arkansas puts you the line more than just

715
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:15,840
Speaker 3: about any team in this field. So for those reasons,

716
00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with the over one forty five and

717
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,640
Speaker 3: a half. I think both of these offenses in spurts

718
00:34:20,719 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 3: are going to.

719
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 6: Get it going.

720
00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:25,520
Speaker 3: And if I'm holding an underticket, nothing's safe. I could

721
00:34:25,560 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 3: see so many points in the last you know, five

722
00:34:27,760 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 3: to six minutes, lots of trips to the foul line,

723
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,799
Speaker 3: lots of aggressive you know, dribble drives. So I'm just

724
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:36,239
Speaker 3: going to go ahead, and you know, stay away from

725
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,439
Speaker 3: a side here and just go with the total.

726
00:34:38,120 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah. The only problem is that these teams just start

727
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 2: like just settling because they're just there could be just

728
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:46,840
Speaker 2: a shit ton of bricks in this game, like legit

729
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:50,200
Speaker 2: bricks from three. These are these are two hard shooting teams.

730
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 2: Kai you just one word answer, you have to pick

731
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 2: one to advance your bracket. Are you just going with

732
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:55,800
Speaker 2: the Hogs talent here.

733
00:34:55,840 --> 00:34:59,359
Speaker 4: Yep, Arkansas pres Musselman more. I'll probably end up betting

734
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 4: on him, but I nothing strong in this game.

735
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,080
Speaker 2: And you would trust Arkansas more than Illinois to pull

736
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:06,319
Speaker 2: off the Kansas right.

737
00:35:06,320 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 5: Absolutely.

738
00:35:07,040 --> 00:35:08,880
Speaker 4: And I'm maybe a little bit biased because I was

739
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 4: there for the Illinois Indiana game in person when Illinois

740
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:13,560
Speaker 4: just basically gave up at the end of the game

741
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,720
Speaker 4: and there was some weird chemistry stuff on the court.

742
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 4: I agree with you, Underwood does seem to hate this team,

743
00:35:19,000 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 4: so I kind of just want to stay away from

744
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:21,280
Speaker 4: that in general.

745
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, there's something that seems just off with them, which

746
00:35:25,160 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 2: is which comes through, and they're inconsistency right, like you

747
00:35:27,320 --> 00:35:29,160
Speaker 2: see them. Sometimes they look so good and then they

748
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 2: look so bad. And when this that's happening late in

749
00:35:32,640 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 2: the year, it's usually something's off with a team. All right,

750
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 2: Let's move on to another eight to nine matchup Auburn Iowa.

751
00:35:40,360 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: Auburn's a one point favorite here over under one fifty two.

752
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,200
Speaker 2: This will be played in their backyard, Birmingham, Alabama. Pretty

753
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,640
Speaker 2: pretty raw deal for Iowa. I guess we talk about

754
00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 2: some raw travel deals. But I was the eight seed.

755
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,719
Speaker 2: Alburt's another big fan base here, but you know you could.

756
00:35:53,719 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 2: I think Alabama's here too, so you might have some

757
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 2: Alabama fans rooting against Auburn. Gave six to fifty Eastern

758
00:35:59,000 --> 00:35:59,759
Speaker 2: on TNT.

759
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:01,759
Speaker 6: Kai.

760
00:36:02,440 --> 00:36:04,759
Speaker 2: I would look at the over here. Auburt's been playing

761
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 2: a little slower recently. You know, I was defense is

762
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: not gonna show. I can't trust iowas defense. I can't

763
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 2: trust Auburn's offense away from home, but they're kind of

764
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 2: at home. This game's tough for me. Do you have

765
00:36:17,680 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 2: any insight to swash one way or the other.

766
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, first, I think both teams are overseeded, neither

767
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 4: deserving of an eight or nine.

768
00:36:25,440 --> 00:36:27,520
Speaker 5: In my opinion, I look at the coaching.

769
00:36:27,600 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 4: I look at fran McCaffrey, who's been coaching for twenty

770
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 4: seven years, who's made eleven tournaments, zero sweet sixteens. Then

771
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 4: I look at Bruce Pearl, who's been two eleven NCAA

772
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 4: tournaments and as five sweet sixteens. He's a much more

773
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 4: successful coach in this format. I also trust Auburn's defense

774
00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 4: more than I was. More than I was defense for sure,

775
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:49,560
Speaker 4: but offense. For his defense, I lean towards defense in general,

776
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 4: it's more consistent and theoretically Auburn has the matchups for

777
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:57,080
Speaker 4: Iowas better players. Several wings can can check Chris Murray

778
00:36:58,920 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 4: and several excuse me and Joe and I Broom can

779
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:05,239
Speaker 4: stop or broch it inside. So that's enough for me

780
00:37:05,280 --> 00:37:07,840
Speaker 4: to lean towards Auburn in this one. More athleticism, more length.

781
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:11,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that might end up being the trump card here.

782
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:14,080
Speaker 2: And yeah, I mean just some some what scares me

783
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:16,440
Speaker 2: with Auburn And sometimes their guards are very erratic, so

784
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 2: sometimes they just shoot them out of out of a

785
00:37:19,280 --> 00:37:21,640
Speaker 2: game and they're just taking really poor shots. They end

786
00:37:21,719 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 2: up they tend to play maybe not even more under control.

787
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 2: Maybe they just thrive off the energy at home and

788
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:28,600
Speaker 2: they tend to play just so much better at home.

789
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,440
Speaker 2: A lot of teams are like that, but Auburn I

790
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,560
Speaker 2: think it's a little more extreme. But you're right, I

791
00:37:32,560 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 2: think there is a coaching events here. And then the

792
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 2: worst unit by far in this game is the Iowa defense, right,

793
00:37:38,480 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 2: So like you look at these teams and you're like,

794
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:44,840
Speaker 2: what's the weakest unit, and it is the Iowa defense.

795
00:37:44,880 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 2: Maybe they could they go zone here that i does

796
00:37:47,640 --> 00:37:51,319
Speaker 2: throw out a zone a decently high clip. Could they

797
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 2: could they go zone here against Auburb or they've just

798
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:54,200
Speaker 2: get murdered on the oak glass.

799
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:56,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that's concern that they get crushed in

800
00:37:56,840 --> 00:37:58,719
Speaker 4: the glass. And have they practiced much zone this year?

801
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:00,879
Speaker 4: I honestly don't know, so I'd be kind of tough

802
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:02,240
Speaker 4: to pull it out and turnament setting.

803
00:38:02,680 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're probably like I think ten to twelve percent

804
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 2: overall this year. The other thing is that you look

805
00:38:08,600 --> 00:38:10,799
Speaker 2: at Auburn, they want to you know, they they want

806
00:38:10,840 --> 00:38:15,799
Speaker 2: to turn you over, and they I think their best

807
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:17,880
Speaker 2: when they can also get out in transition and they

808
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: also can crash the offensive class. And then you look

809
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 2: at Iowan oh Io was eighth in the country in

810
00:38:23,840 --> 00:38:25,839
Speaker 2: turnover rate. They never turn it over, but they played

811
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 2: the Big ten. Who in the Big ten's force turnovers?

812
00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:28,319
Speaker 5: Right?

813
00:38:28,560 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, you go back to Iowa State, Chris, I don't know.

814
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:33,520
Speaker 2: They beat Iowa State by twenty without Chris Mary and

815
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 2: they had a thirty percent turnover rate. Can can someone

816
00:38:35,840 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 2: explain that game to me? Iowa beat Iowa State by

817
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,480
Speaker 2: twenty without Chris Marry and they turned it over in

818
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:43,200
Speaker 2: thirty percent of their possessions go back to TCU. TCU

819
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:46,640
Speaker 2: play without ball without these are I'm listening teams that

820
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,239
Speaker 2: I would play that are top twenty and forcing turnovers.

821
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,920
Speaker 2: TAC you play without Emmanuel Miller and without Damian Ball,

822
00:38:52,120 --> 00:38:56,320
Speaker 2: they won by thirteen. Iowa turned it over on twenty

823
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:59,640
Speaker 2: percent of their possessions, So I think that their turnover

824
00:38:59,719 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 2: number are a little skewed by who they play, and

825
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,680
Speaker 2: they're not facing you know, very They're not facing similar

826
00:39:06,719 --> 00:39:09,560
Speaker 2: defenses to Auburn on a nightly basis, So I think

827
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,840
Speaker 2: I lean Auburn and trust the coach, don't trust the

828
00:39:12,880 --> 00:39:13,560
Speaker 2: Isola defense.

829
00:39:13,880 --> 00:39:14,400
Speaker 6: You're right here.

830
00:39:14,680 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 3: Just in case we haven't buried Iowa enough, let's throw

831
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:19,439
Speaker 3: in some recency bias to the last month.

832
00:39:19,480 --> 00:39:20,160
Speaker 2: They lost by.

833
00:39:20,120 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 3: Twenty at Northwestern, which is like losing by forty to

834
00:39:22,719 --> 00:39:25,319
Speaker 3: anyone else in this field. They go to Wisconsin, they

835
00:39:25,400 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 3: lose by twelve. They lose at home to Nebraska, and

836
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,480
Speaker 3: then they lose in the tournament to Ohio State by four.

837
00:39:32,080 --> 00:39:35,720
Speaker 3: So for a team that already has this huge glaring

838
00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,799
Speaker 3: can't win on the road moniker you know, attached to them,

839
00:39:39,080 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 3: they're also coming in without really playing well in the

840
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,880
Speaker 3: last month. So I don't think there's any reason to

841
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 3: get fired up for this team. And I agree with

842
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: you on everything you said about Auburn, but they should

843
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,040
Speaker 3: get a little bit of the juice from a home

844
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 3: town crowd in Birmingham.

845
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 6: So I think the only play here has to be

846
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:55,920
Speaker 6: the Tigers.

847
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was talking about Auburn not being the same

848
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:00,680
Speaker 2: way from me. That's very true with Iowa, although they

849
00:40:00,719 --> 00:40:04,279
Speaker 2: somehow went into Indiana and then just destroyed them, which

850
00:40:04,920 --> 00:40:06,520
Speaker 2: sticks with me way too much for some reason. But

851
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,520
Speaker 2: that's the out here. That's not the that's the exception,

852
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:13,239
Speaker 2: not the rule. All right, let's move on to I

853
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 2: think the most fun game. I mean, FAU Memphis is

854
00:40:16,480 --> 00:40:19,200
Speaker 2: up there for me. But Oral Roberts Duke. I mean

855
00:40:19,239 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 2: it's Max Asmas and Oral Bob, a team that made

856
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,200
Speaker 2: a run a couple of years ago, versus Duke. If

857
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 2: you're not a Duke fan, it's on America. They're not

858
00:40:28,800 --> 00:40:31,319
Speaker 2: beat or Roberts here, am I right? Ky? You got

859
00:40:31,360 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: a better world here?

860
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 3: Right?

861
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 4: Oh? Absolutely give me Oral Stuckey. I like Oral Roberts here.

862
00:40:37,760 --> 00:40:40,360
Speaker 4: I think the most dangerous twelve seed in the tournament.

863
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,680
Speaker 4: People like to focus on Duke's winning streak. I'm not

864
00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:46,799
Speaker 4: really impressed by it. The teams they've beaten, their their

865
00:40:46,840 --> 00:40:49,600
Speaker 4: bottom feed or acc teams or teams with injury issues.

866
00:40:50,719 --> 00:40:53,239
Speaker 4: They're certainly playing a lot better for sure, and they're

867
00:40:53,280 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 4: a great team with a lot of talent. This Oral

868
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,640
Speaker 4: Roberts team's no joke, man, They're their experienced team. I

869
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:01,280
Speaker 4: think they have the best backcourt this game, with Asmis

870
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:04,320
Speaker 4: and McBride. I think it's better than Duke's backcourt. Vanover

871
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,920
Speaker 4: is going to be a problem for Duke's biggs. He's

872
00:41:06,960 --> 00:41:09,439
Speaker 4: a seven to five guy. They can shoot threes, pick

873
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 4: and pop, pick and pop all day long. By one

874
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 4: where he is or Roberts did get crushed by Houston,

875
00:41:15,160 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 4: You know that's kind of four five. Yeah, that's like

876
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 4: the closest comparison to Duke. But even then, I don't

877
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,600
Speaker 4: think it's really much of a comparison. I still trust

878
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,120
Speaker 4: it was November, like third to long time ago. I

879
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 4: trust this guard group. I trust the coach and Paul

880
00:41:29,680 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 4: Mills quite a bit as well.

881
00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:33,439
Speaker 2: Yeah that does scare me a bit too, that that's

882
00:41:33,480 --> 00:41:36,000
Speaker 2: Houston game. But you can't really run pick and roll

883
00:41:36,040 --> 00:41:38,799
Speaker 2: against Houston, right, Like that you can't everything that Orl

884
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:42,720
Speaker 2: wants to do offensively, they can't really do. But Duke's

885
00:41:42,840 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 2: Duke really struggles in defending screens out on the perimeter,

886
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:49,920
Speaker 2: and that's what Oral Roberts wants to do to the

887
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 2: initiate their offense mid court. Max, He's been here before,

888
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,239
Speaker 2: and you're right, like pulling Lively away from the rim,

889
00:41:57,200 --> 00:41:59,760
Speaker 2: He's not going to be comfortable there. The best comparison

890
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: I can up with is like PJ. Hall Clemson when

891
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 2: Duke played them and Clemson won, I mean all went off.

892
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: So Vanover can probably give Duke similar issues. And yeah,

893
00:42:11,440 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 2: I agree Duke has They've improved their defense I think

894
00:42:15,000 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 2: has really improved. They're good, but the ACC is bad.

895
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:22,400
Speaker 2: And look who they've beaten. You beat Miami, but Omeir

896
00:42:23,120 --> 00:42:25,359
Speaker 2: gets hurt in the first minute. They have no one

897
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:30,040
Speaker 2: behind him. Depth wise, Duke also goes fifty from three

898
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,720
Speaker 2: Miami shoots thirty percent. You know, they played Virginia recently,

899
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,120
Speaker 2: just lost one of their starters, and then it's you know,

900
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: bottom feeders of the ACC. So yeah, I think Duke

901
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 2: comes in a little overvalued here after their run of

902
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 2: the AC Tournament. I think kempa makes us three, I

903
00:42:44,840 --> 00:42:48,200
Speaker 2: make it three and a half. So give me seven

904
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,839
Speaker 2: all day, Mike. Are you Oral, Bob? Give you Oral?

905
00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 3: I mean, let's put our praying hands together and let's

906
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 3: go for Oral Roberts here. Not only are they absolute

907
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 3: firework show on offense fourth in points per game, seventh

908
00:43:01,560 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 3: and effective field goal percentage, they take and make a

909
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: ton of threes, top five in both attempts and makes

910
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:08,839
Speaker 3: their an elite foul shooting team. So you get into

911
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 3: crunch time, get the ball to Asmus. He's over ninety

912
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 3: percent from the line. But what I like, compared to

913
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 3: the team that went to the Sweet sixteen is a

914
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 3: fifteen seed. They're actually much better defensively they got to

915
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 3: seventy fifth and defensive efficiency. They're not a defensive stopper

916
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,680
Speaker 3: by any stretch. But this is still a young Duke team.

917
00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 3: Like if Oral Roberts does what they've done all year

918
00:43:27,680 --> 00:43:29,239
Speaker 3: in the summit, which is they go on a ten

919
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:31,040
Speaker 3: zero run or an eight to zero run something like that,

920
00:43:31,280 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 3: how is Duke going to respond when they have to score?

921
00:43:33,880 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 3: Not just you know, things are going really well as

922
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,480
Speaker 3: they have for the past month for the Blue Devils,

923
00:43:38,719 --> 00:43:41,680
Speaker 3: and then they get everybody involved, and you know Lively

924
00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 3: is getting some finishes at the rim and everyone's feeling

925
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 3: good about themselves. It's like, no, now you're in the tournament.

926
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 3: You're losing to a twelve seed. Who's the one who's

927
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,800
Speaker 3: gonna take the big shot? Like, I think the pressure

928
00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:52,600
Speaker 3: is going to slide to do very quickly in this game.

929
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 6: So I'm on Oral Roberts on the money line.

930
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:56,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love this. I think this will be a

931
00:43:56,920 --> 00:43:59,239
Speaker 2: great game. And yeah that Oral Roberts seed that made

932
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 2: a run back in twenty twenty one, they finished and

933
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:04,800
Speaker 2: this is after the tournament, so they got a boost.

934
00:44:05,080 --> 00:44:07,960
Speaker 2: They finished two hundred and twentieth in overall defensive efficiency

935
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 2: this year one hundred and seventh. So this defense they've

936
00:44:12,000 --> 00:44:15,400
Speaker 2: won seventeenth straight. Really confident team. Kay, ready, I'll give

937
00:44:15,400 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 2: you I'll make you feel a little better. Twenty twenty

938
00:44:18,760 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 2: one Oral Roberts right. They infamously became the second team

939
00:44:23,960 --> 00:44:26,520
Speaker 2: second fifteen seat to make the Sweet sixteen. They beat

940
00:44:26,520 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 2: Ohio State in Florida their first game of the year

941
00:44:30,480 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 2: in November against Missouri Tigers. They lost by.

942
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:38,440
Speaker 5: Forty Wow, I don't remember that game. Good for my

943
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:39,280
Speaker 5: Missouri Tigers.

944
00:44:39,320 --> 00:44:43,439
Speaker 2: Though it was. Final score was ninety one to sixty four.

945
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,839
Speaker 2: The largest leader of the game was I guess they

946
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 2: won by mathots on the one by thirty they were

947
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:51,480
Speaker 2: up by thirty five. But that just shows you, like

948
00:44:51,560 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 2: sometimes these you know, mid majors early in November. You

949
00:44:55,520 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 2: can't put too much weight into an early season result.

950
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:03,879
Speaker 2: All right, let's go oral. All right, transitioning to toothpaste,

951
00:45:04,280 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little. Colgate Texas seven twenty five Eastern

952
00:45:09,840 --> 00:45:13,759
Speaker 2: TBS Texas thirteen and a half point favorite over under

953
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 2: one forty seven and a half. This game will we

954
00:45:16,040 --> 00:45:20,200
Speaker 2: played in Des Moines, Iowa. Game seven twenty five Eastern

955
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:23,080
Speaker 2: on TBS Texas thirteen a half point favorite. I see

956
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,799
Speaker 2: a lot of love for Colgate. I can't get there.

957
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 2: People get fall in love with their offense and look

958
00:45:28,800 --> 00:45:32,400
Speaker 2: they can shoot, and people say like, oh my god, Colgate.

959
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: They almost beat Wisconsin last year, right, well, Wisconsin's not

960
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 2: the most athletic team in the world. It's kind of

961
00:45:39,520 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 2: a good matchup for Colgate. And yeah, they still came

962
00:45:44,600 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 2: up short. And then the year before against Arkansas, people

963
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,399
Speaker 2: remember like, oh, everyone get to the TV Colgates about

964
00:45:50,400 --> 00:45:52,640
Speaker 2: the beat Arkansas. They were up in the second half.

965
00:45:52,640 --> 00:45:54,439
Speaker 2: I see this all time. They've led in the second

966
00:45:54,480 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: half and they're they're back to back gears. Well, Arkansas

967
00:45:57,880 --> 00:46:00,200
Speaker 2: won by the one they gave im seventeen. Still they

968
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 2: just so I look. I know, kogk Chu their number

969
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 2: one in the country in three point percentage forty point

970
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 2: nine percent. They have a kid, Lynch Daniels who's shooting

971
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,040
Speaker 2: fifty point three percent from three on one hundred and

972
00:46:13,400 --> 00:46:18,280
Speaker 2: fifty three attempts over fifty percent, which is just insane.

973
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,600
Speaker 2: But they play in the Patriot League. People, no disrespect

974
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:22,760
Speaker 2: to the Patriot I love the Patriots.

975
00:46:23,000 --> 00:46:27,360
Speaker 3: No, I mean, get out the fife and the drums

976
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,359
Speaker 3: and everything for the Patriot League. It's awful. I mean,

977
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:33,719
Speaker 3: I of my own volition probably watched fifteen to twenty

978
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,800
Speaker 3: Patriot League games and just no one could play with

979
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 3: them at all, and no one can take advantage of

980
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:44,799
Speaker 3: their very clear deficiencies. And Texas is rounding into such

981
00:46:44,880 --> 00:46:46,640
Speaker 3: good shape. I think they're close to top twenty in

982
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:50,120
Speaker 3: offensive end defensive efficiency at Ken Palm. Even Dessu is

983
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:52,320
Speaker 3: playing better. He was like he really came on in

984
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,040
Speaker 3: the Big twelve tournament. And one thing that I love

985
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:58,640
Speaker 3: is that from a turnover margin perspective, I think they're

986
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:01,320
Speaker 3: tenth nationally in turnover margin per game. So they're not

987
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:03,800
Speaker 3: gonna give out freebes and extra opportunities to a Colgate

988
00:47:03,800 --> 00:47:05,880
Speaker 3: team that's going to struggle to rebound with them in general,

989
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 3: because that's Texas's real weakness in my opinion, on the glass,

990
00:47:09,000 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 3: We're not going to get taken advantage of here. So

991
00:47:10,760 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 3: unless Colgate goes bananas and make sixteen threes, this is

992
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:15,880
Speaker 3: probably gonna be a runaway.

993
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Like, I mean, Texas knows that they're gonna shoot three,

994
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:20,439
Speaker 2: Like what else is Colgate gonna do? Like they're gonna

995
00:47:20,440 --> 00:47:23,760
Speaker 2: be out of the shooters. And also, how is Colgate

996
00:47:23,800 --> 00:47:26,960
Speaker 2: getting stops? That's my biggest question this Colgate team. We

997
00:47:27,040 --> 00:47:30,439
Speaker 2: just talked about this Colgate team, right that they hung

998
00:47:30,680 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 2: with Texas for arcs off with for a half, they

999
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 2: almost be Wisconsin. Their defense is significantly worse this year

1000
00:47:37,680 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 2: than the past two years, which is problematic. They're gonna

1001
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 2: be at such an athletic disadvantage in this game, and

1002
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 2: I don't know how they get stops, And yeah, I

1003
00:47:48,080 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 2: mean maybe like Texas's I'm trying to think of the

1004
00:47:51,120 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 2: path for Kolgy. Obviously they got to make a ton

1005
00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 2: of threes. Maybe Texas is just like they come out

1006
00:47:55,680 --> 00:47:57,759
Speaker 2: flat after winning the Big twelve tournament. They're like, we

1007
00:47:57,840 --> 00:48:01,040
Speaker 2: can cruise here, and then it's like they it's like

1008
00:48:01,080 --> 00:48:02,920
Speaker 2: an Arkansas deal, right, and then they have to just

1009
00:48:03,000 --> 00:48:06,520
Speaker 2: make a run late. So yeah, this is the The

1010
00:48:06,600 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 2: Patriot League was bad this year and Colgate took advantage.

1011
00:48:10,200 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 2: Credit to them, but this isn't like your what like

1012
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 2: your two thousand and five Bucknell Who's who's on that team?

1013
00:48:18,239 --> 00:48:23,480
Speaker 2: Right Whome mcna that big center, who's the guy? It

1014
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 2: sounds like Max Max asmis But it's a Ace badness

1015
00:48:27,760 --> 00:48:31,080
Speaker 2: or right Ace badness. Wasn't he one of their guards?

1016
00:48:31,160 --> 00:48:33,560
Speaker 2: A bad abe a badness? I think?

1017
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 3: I think I think there was an Abe Froeman in

1018
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 3: there for sure, Sausage King of Chicago. But yeah, that

1019
00:48:38,360 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 3: those Bucknell teams were gritty. There's nothing gritty defensively about Colgate.

1020
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,719
Speaker 3: But shout out to Matt Langele, their head coach. He

1021
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 3: should definitely be getting a better job after this game.

1022
00:48:48,600 --> 00:48:50,680
Speaker 3: He's won the Patriot League Coach of the Year. Like

1023
00:48:50,760 --> 00:48:53,600
Speaker 3: five years in a row they've either won or tied

1024
00:48:53,680 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 3: for first in the Patriot League five years in a row.

1025
00:48:56,080 --> 00:48:58,280
Speaker 3: That guy needs to get at least to a Truman

1026
00:48:58,400 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 3: Major for his next up.

1027
00:49:00,040 --> 00:49:02,640
Speaker 2: Astro Polo and right, master Polo.

1028
00:49:03,120 --> 00:49:04,680
Speaker 5: That's right, that's a good poll right there.

1029
00:49:05,239 --> 00:49:08,080
Speaker 2: All right? Anyway, people that are like twenty one listening,

1030
00:49:09,360 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 2: what the fuck are these guys talking about? Master Polo

1031
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 2: at ace badness? McNaughton. All right, let's move on to

1032
00:49:18,960 --> 00:49:23,160
Speaker 2: Oh god, this, I'm set. I'm setting myself up for disaster.

1033
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 2: This is the another Mountain West team that I like.

1034
00:49:28,280 --> 00:49:32,359
Speaker 2: Boise State against Northwestern. Northwestern's a one and a half

1035
00:49:32,400 --> 00:49:34,520
Speaker 2: point favorite over under one. Twenty eight. Game starts seven

1036
00:49:34,600 --> 00:49:39,799
Speaker 2: thirty Eastern on True TV in Sacramento, California. So I'll

1037
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,239
Speaker 2: make my case for Boise in a minute. I think

1038
00:49:42,280 --> 00:49:44,000
Speaker 2: you liked the under here, Mike, I.

1039
00:49:44,040 --> 00:49:46,399
Speaker 3: Did this says rockfight written all over at two top

1040
00:49:46,480 --> 00:49:51,480
Speaker 3: fifteen pen palm defenses. If Boo Booie isn't absolutely killing it,

1041
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 3: then where's Northwestern getting their points from? And he finished

1042
00:49:53,960 --> 00:49:56,359
Speaker 3: the season on a twenty for fifty nine run from

1043
00:49:56,400 --> 00:49:58,120
Speaker 3: the field. They went one to three straight up in

1044
00:49:58,160 --> 00:50:00,200
Speaker 3: that stretch and then shavered.

1045
00:49:59,880 --> 00:50:01,239
Speaker 5: You is also up and down.

1046
00:50:01,320 --> 00:50:04,000
Speaker 3: Max Rice was off in the Mountain West Conference tournament.

1047
00:50:04,080 --> 00:50:07,480
Speaker 3: So I don't see any hot hands walking into this game.

1048
00:50:07,520 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna ahead and play under one twenty eight

1049
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 3: and a half.

1050
00:50:09,880 --> 00:50:11,959
Speaker 2: Don't hate that at all. This one should be ugly.

1051
00:50:12,280 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 2: You know, this is kind of like some of the

1052
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 2: SEC teams that I'm fading, like Texas A and M

1053
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:20,440
Speaker 2: that benefits from the poor shooting in the SEC. I

1054
00:50:20,480 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 2: think Northwestern defensively benefits from playing in the Big ten

1055
00:50:24,440 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 2: right there. Everything they want to do is to stop

1056
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 2: post offenses, and they do a really good job of

1057
00:50:29,040 --> 00:50:30,279
Speaker 2: doing that. If you look at how they great out

1058
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:32,240
Speaker 2: guarding the post, and then you look at their personality,

1059
00:50:32,280 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 2: you're like, how the fuck are they doing this? And

1060
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:37,839
Speaker 2: then it's just all skiing. But Boise State doesn't run

1061
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:41,440
Speaker 2: anything through the post. They're one of the they you know,

1062
00:50:41,480 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 2: they have guys who can shoot all over the court.

1063
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:45,840
Speaker 2: I think their versatility, you can shoot a lot of

1064
00:50:45,880 --> 00:50:49,360
Speaker 2: threes against Northwestern, They're shooting. Ability of their off guards

1065
00:50:49,440 --> 00:50:51,320
Speaker 2: right of guys that Audisas are going to be covering

1066
00:50:51,760 --> 00:50:53,800
Speaker 2: I think is going to be huge here. And the

1067
00:50:53,880 --> 00:50:57,560
Speaker 2: other other side, Boise State, they're most they don't have size.

1068
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 2: They're most vulnerable in post defense. Right, I'm I would

1069
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 2: be petrified against if I was a boys They've had

1070
00:51:02,440 --> 00:51:04,239
Speaker 2: a they went up against a team with a really

1071
00:51:04,280 --> 00:51:07,200
Speaker 2: good big who who's covering the Northwestern doesn't run any

1072
00:51:07,200 --> 00:51:10,399
Speaker 2: post offense either, so I just trust. I think Boise

1073
00:51:10,520 --> 00:51:14,840
Speaker 2: State has more shot makers ultimately, and then how Northwestern

1074
00:51:14,880 --> 00:51:17,920
Speaker 2: has been designed doesn't play as well here in this

1075
00:51:18,040 --> 00:51:21,040
Speaker 2: particular matchup. So I'm gonna go with boise State just

1076
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:22,440
Speaker 2: to make I think it's just going to come down to,

1077
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,160
Speaker 2: like who can make a couple more threes in a

1078
00:51:24,239 --> 00:51:26,879
Speaker 2: rock fight, and I'm going to trust them Mountain West team.

1079
00:51:26,960 --> 00:51:29,640
Speaker 2: That's probably a bad idea, but that's how I see

1080
00:51:29,680 --> 00:51:34,080
Speaker 2: it playing out. I also think Boise State if you

1081
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:36,040
Speaker 2: look at like they try to get in transition sometimes

1082
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,279
Speaker 2: they're very inefficient. They're much better in half court, and

1083
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 2: they're half core defense as elite. These are two elite

1084
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:43,400
Speaker 2: half court defenses, but Boise State has no depth. So

1085
00:51:43,480 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 2: I think a game, you see them a lot of

1086
00:51:45,239 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: times wear down. At the end of games, they basically

1087
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,040
Speaker 2: you know, they go sixty. So I think a game

1088
00:51:50,120 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: with limited possessions, it's going to be really slow. It

1089
00:51:52,400 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 2: is going to be good for their legs and benefit

1090
00:51:54,360 --> 00:51:57,399
Speaker 2: them in multiple ways. Am I crazy Kuy for liking Boise?

1091
00:51:57,920 --> 00:52:01,719
Speaker 4: No, because I trust the rice in the coaching chair

1092
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 4: more than I trust Chris Collins. And no disrespect to Collins,

1093
00:52:04,840 --> 00:52:07,080
Speaker 4: who had a great season. But the thing that's kind

1094
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:09,799
Speaker 4: of screwing me towards Northwestern Lean is I just think

1095
00:52:09,840 --> 00:52:11,480
Speaker 4: they come in with a bigger chip on their shoulder.

1096
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 4: I mean, they are the ultimate underdogs. No one believes

1097
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:17,640
Speaker 4: they're any good, and they are a really tough, tough team.

1098
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:20,080
Speaker 4: I know Boise is as well, but big ten over

1099
00:52:20,160 --> 00:52:22,839
Speaker 4: Mountain West for me pretty much across the board.

1100
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,120
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to a one seed. We're

1101
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 2: going to move on to the Super Late Night Houston

1102
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 2: nineteen and a half point favorite over Northern Kentucky nine

1103
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 2: twenty Eastern TNT Birmingham Alabama nineteen a half point favorite

1104
00:52:35,280 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 2: over under one twenty two and a half. It's a

1105
00:52:37,400 --> 00:52:39,920
Speaker 2: very low total for a Houston team that should get

1106
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:41,799
Speaker 2: a layup line. But these are two of slowest teams

1107
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 2: in the country. Kay, Should we lay it with the Coops?

1108
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:45,319
Speaker 5: Lay it? Man?

1109
00:52:45,560 --> 00:52:50,240
Speaker 4: Bloodbath, absolute bloodbath on the boards. MKU plays a funky

1110
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 4: zone that is susceptible to rebounds. They're three hundred and

1111
00:52:55,480 --> 00:52:58,800
Speaker 4: thirty third in the country defensive rebounding rate. Cleveland State

1112
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:02,280
Speaker 4: crushed them on the glass every single match up this season,

1113
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 4: and Houston's the best rebounding team in the country. I

1114
00:53:04,680 --> 00:53:07,000
Speaker 4: know they're fourth and offensive rebounding rate. This is the

1115
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,919
Speaker 4: best offensive rebound team in the country. They literally live

1116
00:53:10,280 --> 00:53:12,960
Speaker 4: for this. They practice it all the time. It's Calvin

1117
00:53:13,000 --> 00:53:15,879
Speaker 4: Sampson's obsession is rebounds. On the other end, I don't

1118
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,400
Speaker 4: see how NKU scores at all. They have a very

1119
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:23,320
Speaker 4: experienced and good backcourt for sure, but Houston is so swarming,

1120
00:53:23,760 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 4: so much more athletics, so so much tougher than this

1121
00:53:26,560 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 4: NKAU team. I think it's a nightmare matchup for them

1122
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:31,800
Speaker 4: and Sucky. I'm sure you got the stats. The Horizon

1123
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:35,040
Speaker 4: has been brutal in the Installby tournament the last few years.

1124
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:38,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's and look. Covin stances, by the way, is

1125
00:53:39,280 --> 00:53:41,280
Speaker 2: seven and zer against the spread as a double digit favorite,

1126
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:44,160
Speaker 2: and postseason play that includes the AAC Tournament covered by

1127
00:53:44,200 --> 00:53:46,439
Speaker 2: thirteen points per game two and zero in the Dance

1128
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,200
Speaker 2: one by thirty one and twenty nine. That includes a

1129
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:50,759
Speaker 2: game against another Horizon team two years ago. They were

1130
00:53:50,760 --> 00:53:54,400
Speaker 2: twenty point favorites Cleveland State, who also gave up a

1131
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 2: ton off its rebounds and also used a lot of zone.

1132
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:59,080
Speaker 2: Houston won that game by thirty. They were up by

1133
00:53:59,160 --> 00:54:02,680
Speaker 2: forty with like five to go. And Horizon thirteen to

1134
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,480
Speaker 2: sixteen seeds is double digit dogs in two thousand and five,

1135
00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 2: two and eight against the spread, they have not performed well.

1136
00:54:08,920 --> 00:54:10,800
Speaker 2: And yeah, they this should be a layup line, like

1137
00:54:10,960 --> 00:54:13,560
Speaker 2: even if if Houston's either gonna make the three, so

1138
00:54:13,640 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 2: then they get three points for the possession. You know,

1139
00:54:16,520 --> 00:54:18,239
Speaker 2: it's whenever they shoot a three, or they're gonna get

1140
00:54:18,239 --> 00:54:20,080
Speaker 2: the offensive rebound and lay it up. And that Cleik

1141
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:22,120
Speaker 2: game against Cleveland State two years ago, the term they

1142
00:54:22,120 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 2: have a fifty percent offensive rebounding rate. So yeah, it's

1143
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:27,919
Speaker 2: I know the possessions are gonna be there's it's gonna

1144
00:54:27,920 --> 00:54:30,560
Speaker 2: be limited possesions, it's gonna be slow. But on the

1145
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,799
Speaker 2: other end, I don't like the only you know, Northern

1146
00:54:32,880 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 2: Kentucky could make. They're gonna have to shoot threes here.

1147
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:36,000
Speaker 2: You're gonna have to do it against Houston but Houston's

1148
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:39,360
Speaker 2: permenter d is always good. Their their help and recovery

1149
00:54:39,480 --> 00:54:41,920
Speaker 2: is elite. By their three point defense is all so trusting.

1150
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:43,760
Speaker 2: That is a good thing. But you know, Northern Kentucky

1151
00:54:43,920 --> 00:54:46,359
Speaker 2: shoots forty percent from three. They're gonna cover because there's

1152
00:54:46,400 --> 00:54:48,879
Speaker 2: just not gonna be a lot of possessions in this game.

1153
00:54:49,000 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 2: But and they have some shooters. But if you look

1154
00:54:52,080 --> 00:54:54,560
Speaker 2: per synergy, they face a lot of zones. And it's

1155
00:54:54,560 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 2: another thing. Houston faces a lot of zone and they

1156
00:54:57,120 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 2: grade out well. They face a lot of zone in

1157
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 2: the AAC, two of the heaviest zone leagues in the country,

1158
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 2: or the AC and the Horizon. Northern Kentucky seventieth percent

1159
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:09,640
Speaker 2: tile inefficiency against zone defenses. They have some shooters, they

1160
00:55:09,719 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 2: move it well, sixteenth percent tile against man. Well, I'll

1161
00:55:14,719 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 2: tell you why they're not going to see any zone

1162
00:55:16,280 --> 00:55:19,160
Speaker 2: from Houston on Friday. I agree. I think this is

1163
00:55:19,160 --> 00:55:21,160
Speaker 2: a blove, But I don't even think it matters Absasser plays.

1164
00:55:21,360 --> 00:55:23,200
Speaker 5: It doesn't. If they miss, they're gonna be the rebound

1165
00:55:23,200 --> 00:55:23,680
Speaker 5: the're gonna score.

1166
00:55:23,680 --> 00:55:28,760
Speaker 2: Anyways, Let's move on to Tennessee, Louisiana in the East

1167
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:33,759
Speaker 2: Regional nine to forty Eastern on CBS. Tennessee's an eleven

1168
00:55:33,760 --> 00:55:36,239
Speaker 2: point favorite over under one thirty six and a half.

1169
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 2: This games in Orlando, Florida, and this matchup first came out,

1170
00:55:39,920 --> 00:55:42,120
Speaker 2: I said, it's a bad matchup for how Louisiana wants

1171
00:55:42,120 --> 00:55:45,000
Speaker 2: to operate offense. I don't know if I can lay

1172
00:55:45,040 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 2: it with Tennessee, though. Could I really go to the

1173
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,879
Speaker 2: window and lay eleven with this Tennessee offense, I'm not sure. Mike.

1174
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:53,680
Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and get the raging Cajun warm ups

1175
00:55:53,719 --> 00:55:56,360
Speaker 3: in all black because it's a funeral for Tennessee season.

1176
00:55:56,840 --> 00:56:00,400
Speaker 3: I've had it with this Tennessee team, and once they

1177
00:56:00,440 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 3: lost their point guard, that's enough for me to go

1178
00:56:02,320 --> 00:56:05,040
Speaker 3: ahead and punch the big upset button here plus four

1179
00:56:05,200 --> 00:56:08,040
Speaker 3: fifty on the money line. They have a former McDonald's

1180
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 3: All American, Jordan Brown, to hang their hat on. He

1181
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:14,160
Speaker 3: gave Texas twenty points earlier this season averaged almost twenty

1182
00:56:14,239 --> 00:56:14,600
Speaker 3: to nine.

1183
00:56:15,120 --> 00:56:16,200
Speaker 6: They're twenty eighth in.

1184
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:20,080
Speaker 3: Offensive rebounding percentage, so I really like that from a

1185
00:56:20,120 --> 00:56:22,919
Speaker 3: mid major perspective. They also limit teams from three point range.

1186
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:26,239
Speaker 3: They only allowed six point one made triples per game.

1187
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:29,760
Speaker 3: UL is also a very strong three point shooting team themselves.

1188
00:56:30,360 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 5: I think this is enough.

1189
00:56:31,680 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 3: It's going to take a huge, probably twenty five and

1190
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,040
Speaker 3: ten game from Brown to get it done.

1191
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,279
Speaker 6: But they were really strong down the stretch.

1192
00:56:39,360 --> 00:56:41,480
Speaker 3: I know, the Sun Belt is not a conference that

1193
00:56:41,560 --> 00:56:43,200
Speaker 3: carries a lot of weight, but they have a lot

1194
00:56:43,239 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 3: of moments of going in here, whereas you know, Tennessee

1195
00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:48,479
Speaker 3: was leaking oil, lots of losses down the stretch, lots

1196
00:56:48,520 --> 00:56:51,000
Speaker 3: of you know, struggles offensively, and this isn't the time

1197
00:56:51,040 --> 00:56:54,240
Speaker 3: to try to reinvent your identity with a new floor general.

1198
00:56:54,360 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 3: So the fact that they get bounced by Miszoo by

1199
00:56:57,160 --> 00:56:59,360
Speaker 3: eight in the SEC tournament, I think they looked a

1200
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:01,680
Speaker 3: little bit lifely us in that performance as well.

1201
00:57:01,920 --> 00:57:03,560
Speaker 6: It's not for me to go with the Ragan cagens.

1202
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean the way that I could see the

1203
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 2: case is, you know, Brown is very good, he's high

1204
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:13,439
Speaker 2: major talent well and he can he'll score you. I'll

1205
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,359
Speaker 2: have success in the post. Tennessee is really good because

1206
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 2: it's hard to run off its to the post, but

1207
00:57:17,040 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 2: it gets really good. Big man. You can get Tennessee

1208
00:57:19,080 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 2: a little bit and he'll compete here. But they run

1209
00:57:21,360 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 2: they you know, they have a lot of They want

1210
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:25,600
Speaker 2: to dribble, penetrate and then get into the lanes, and

1211
00:57:25,600 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 2: Tennessee doesn't let you do that, and you gotta like,

1212
00:57:28,280 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 2: you have to shoot then move the ball to beat Tennessee. Now,

1213
00:57:32,440 --> 00:57:34,560
Speaker 2: Louisiana does have a good three points, they don't shoot

1214
00:57:34,560 --> 00:57:37,480
Speaker 2: a lot of threes. It's not like their offense. You're

1215
00:57:37,520 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 2: gonna have to have guy like a guy like Kenhrow

1216
00:57:39,280 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 2: Garnett come off the bench and hit like what he

1217
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 2: could do. He has random games where he has like

1218
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:46,040
Speaker 2: seven threes. Garnett comes in and he hits like six threes.

1219
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 2: He also could air ball six. But there's a path.

1220
00:57:50,200 --> 00:57:53,040
Speaker 2: I just think it's a tough matchup for the way

1221
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 2: that they want to run offense. But the pretty well

1222
00:57:55,560 --> 00:57:58,040
Speaker 2: coached Maybe they'll make some adjustments here. And Brown is

1223
00:57:58,200 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 2: a very good player to have on your side. You

1224
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 2: would lean Tennessee or too. You don't like the matchup

1225
00:58:03,640 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 2: for the d education s kyt.

1226
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:07,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Tennessee here. I love Louisiana, but I

1227
00:58:07,840 --> 00:58:10,560
Speaker 4: don't think they match up well. I think it's impossible

1228
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:14,640
Speaker 4: to score inside against Tennessee. They're the second best defense

1229
00:58:14,680 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 4: overall in the country. Their interior defense is ridiculous. They're

1230
00:58:17,720 --> 00:58:22,120
Speaker 4: a bunch of men. They're very strong inside. Louisiana lost

1231
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:25,440
Speaker 4: by twenty eight in that Texas game. You know, they

1232
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 4: have a lot of talent, but it's not the same

1233
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:30,800
Speaker 4: as Tennessee. And what worries me about Louisiana. Tennessee blows

1234
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 4: out teams that aren't as good as them. They're not

1235
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 4: at the same level. They've beaten ten teams by thirty

1236
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,320
Speaker 4: or more this season, and they've beat another one by

1237
00:58:37,360 --> 00:58:39,959
Speaker 4: twenty nine, so basically eleven teams by around thirty points

1238
00:58:40,040 --> 00:58:42,720
Speaker 4: or more. That scares me to fade them. I think

1239
00:58:42,800 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 4: Ziegler matters going forward. I'm not sure he matters as

1240
00:58:46,240 --> 00:58:46,919
Speaker 4: much in this game.

1241
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:49,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Tennessee has has a lot of men that

1242
00:58:49,520 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 2: they can throw up Brown a lot of bodies which

1243
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,400
Speaker 2: he's not used to saying, like he sees Samuel with

1244
00:58:56,120 --> 00:59:00,240
Speaker 2: who's playing right South Alabama? South Alabama, But like if

1245
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: Brown could get into foul trouble here too, which would

1246
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:05,919
Speaker 2: be disastrous. But all right, I don't hate the bold call.

1247
00:59:06,600 --> 00:59:10,840
Speaker 2: All right, let's move on to Penn State, Texas A

1248
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:14,400
Speaker 2: and M. This game will be played. Very excited for

1249
00:59:14,440 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 2: this game Texas and A three point favorite over under

1250
00:59:18,880 --> 00:59:20,800
Speaker 2: one thirty four and a half. It's gonna play nine

1251
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:23,760
Speaker 2: to fifty five Eastern on TBS in Des Moines, Iowa.

1252
00:59:24,360 --> 00:59:26,680
Speaker 2: I like Penn State here mentioned it before. Texas A

1253
00:59:26,760 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 2: and M. Very aggressive defense, underscreen help give up a

1254
00:59:29,920 --> 00:59:32,720
Speaker 2: ton of threes. That works in the SEC, not against

1255
00:59:33,400 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 2: a team that shoots threes and makes threes at a

1256
00:59:36,280 --> 00:59:38,440
Speaker 2: top ten rate nationally. I think this is a bad

1257
00:59:38,480 --> 00:59:41,640
Speaker 2: match up for Texas A and M. Both coaches are great.

1258
00:59:41,680 --> 00:59:44,880
Speaker 2: Here another great coaching matchup. I'm gonna trust pick it

1259
00:59:44,920 --> 00:59:46,120
Speaker 2: in this office. I think this game is more of

1260
00:59:46,160 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 2: a coin flip. I like Penn State, Ky, you agree.

1261
00:59:48,640 --> 00:59:49,520
Speaker 5: I like Penn State too.

1262
00:59:50,120 --> 00:59:52,600
Speaker 4: This is the matchup I wanted as a as a

1263
00:59:52,680 --> 00:59:55,120
Speaker 4: MISSOO fan who's seen Texas A and M a couple times.

1264
00:59:55,600 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 4: I was hoping they get Penn State in the tournament

1265
00:59:57,920 --> 00:59:59,720
Speaker 4: because I think Penn State can exploit them for reasons

1266
00:59:59,720 --> 01:00:02,600
Speaker 4: you said the SEC and there in conference play, it's

1267
01:00:02,600 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 4: the worst shooting team in America from three, A and

1268
01:00:05,200 --> 01:00:06,920
Speaker 4: N doesn't really have to guard the perimeter. They do

1269
01:00:07,000 --> 01:00:10,680
Speaker 4: against Penn State, who from a volume plus the ability

1270
01:00:10,760 --> 01:00:14,000
Speaker 4: to make it perspective, arguably the most prolific three point

1271
01:00:14,040 --> 01:00:17,080
Speaker 4: shooting team in America. They also handle the ball. A

1272
01:00:17,080 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 4: and M's not really going to bother them with pressure.

1273
01:00:19,120 --> 01:00:20,920
Speaker 4: Nobody can guard Jaalen pick it. I know A and

1274
01:00:21,040 --> 01:00:22,880
Speaker 4: M and Theory has guys that can do it. We've

1275
01:00:22,920 --> 01:00:26,200
Speaker 4: said that before. He's an All American. He's terrific. And

1276
01:00:26,240 --> 01:00:29,360
Speaker 4: then A and M relies on bolli ball offensively to score,

1277
01:00:29,720 --> 01:00:33,240
Speaker 4: offensive rebounding, attacking them, and getting fouled. Penn State has

1278
01:00:33,240 --> 01:00:36,680
Speaker 4: seen that every single night in the Big Ten. They

1279
01:00:36,720 --> 01:00:39,960
Speaker 4: are outmatched size wise in every single game, and it

1280
01:00:40,000 --> 01:00:43,600
Speaker 4: doesn't matter. There's still a terrific defensive rebounding team. They

1281
01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 4: still play without fouling. And they're also the most experienced

1282
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:49,400
Speaker 4: team in the country. From an age perspective, almost everybody

1283
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 4: in this team's a senior plus. I like Penn State

1284
01:00:51,680 --> 01:00:51,920
Speaker 4: a lot.

1285
01:00:52,640 --> 01:00:55,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, and you've met you hinted at it.

1286
01:00:55,600 --> 01:00:58,640
Speaker 2: But the three primary ways the text A and M

1287
01:00:58,720 --> 01:01:02,560
Speaker 2: scores off turnovers at the free throw line. This team

1288
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:04,640
Speaker 2: that gets some games, they go to the line forty times.

1289
01:01:05,120 --> 01:01:11,000
Speaker 2: An offensive rebounds head state, elite defensive rebounded team, never foul,

1290
01:01:11,960 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 2: never turn it over, Mike, you not on your head?

1291
01:01:14,440 --> 01:01:15,800
Speaker 2: There are you an agreement with we are?

1292
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:21,360
Speaker 3: I agree to a certain extent. I think this will

1293
01:01:21,400 --> 01:01:23,760
Speaker 3: be one where I watch the first forty eight minutes,

1294
01:01:23,880 --> 01:01:25,400
Speaker 3: and I want to make sure that.

1295
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:28,760
Speaker 2: You watched the first forty eight minutes, sorry, four to

1296
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:33,760
Speaker 2: eight minutes. You're gonna bet it live in the third

1297
01:01:33,800 --> 01:01:37,120
Speaker 2: and the third overtime. Yeah, I watch the first half,

1298
01:01:37,240 --> 01:01:40,640
Speaker 2: second half, first overtime, three minutes of the second overtime.

1299
01:01:41,120 --> 01:01:43,240
Speaker 2: Then I'm gonna make my decision on who I like

1300
01:01:43,320 --> 01:01:43,800
Speaker 2: in this game.

1301
01:01:44,000 --> 01:01:46,840
Speaker 4: We should be up and running and say six to

1302
01:01:47,000 --> 01:01:50,320
Speaker 4: nine months, sixty nine months, No, six to nine months.

1303
01:01:50,440 --> 01:01:52,440
Speaker 6: Yeah, that's what it's gonna take for me to come

1304
01:01:52,520 --> 01:01:53,160
Speaker 6: down on this one.

1305
01:01:53,600 --> 01:01:57,720
Speaker 3: My only concern is that Penn State, if the shots

1306
01:01:57,760 --> 01:02:00,040
Speaker 3: aren't falling early, do they have a secondary player? And

1307
01:02:00,120 --> 01:02:02,439
Speaker 3: I know that Jalen Pickett is someone who can take over,

1308
01:02:02,880 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 3: but they got so hot down the stretch of the season,

1309
01:02:06,640 --> 01:02:09,400
Speaker 3: where if you if we were having this conversation in January,

1310
01:02:09,520 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 3: it's like, would we be viewing Penn State even the

1311
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:14,720
Speaker 3: potential if everything went right? Are we at the very

1312
01:02:14,880 --> 01:02:16,920
Speaker 3: top of the market for Penn State. That's my concern.

1313
01:02:17,160 --> 01:02:18,920
Speaker 3: That's why it's just a pass for me from a

1314
01:02:19,000 --> 01:02:21,800
Speaker 3: spread perspective. You know, once we get into the third overtime,

1315
01:02:22,000 --> 01:02:23,320
Speaker 3: I may dip my toe in the water.

1316
01:02:23,720 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, but I mean even if ten State shots aren't falling,

1317
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,480
Speaker 2: I mean, look, you have to assume that they will.

1318
01:02:27,520 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 2: They're an elite shooting team and it's not just to

1319
01:02:29,800 --> 01:02:32,640
Speaker 2: rely on one guy. But I don't think like tex

1320
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:34,160
Speaker 2: Am is ever going to run away and hide with

1321
01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,160
Speaker 2: their offense in this game, and it's I think it's

1322
01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:38,760
Speaker 2: gonna be slower paced. Penn State also doesn't go after

1323
01:02:38,800 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 2: any offensive rebounds and they get back and they're like,

1324
01:02:41,920 --> 01:02:44,000
Speaker 2: they're not gonna let text Adem get any easy buckets here.

1325
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:48,160
Speaker 2: And yeah, so I love Fenn State here, all right.

1326
01:02:48,240 --> 01:02:53,440
Speaker 2: Final game of the night. Unc Ashville takes on UCLAUCA

1327
01:02:53,600 --> 01:02:56,520
Speaker 2: seventeen and a half point favorite over under one thirty

1328
01:02:56,560 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 2: four and a half games on True TV ten oh

1329
01:02:59,400 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 2: five Easter in Sacramento. Bad travel spot for Asheville. They

1330
01:03:05,440 --> 01:03:07,439
Speaker 2: do have a high major player and Drew pember would

1331
01:03:07,440 --> 01:03:11,000
Speaker 2: transferred from Tennessee capable going for forty plus. Bulldogs use

1332
01:03:11,040 --> 01:03:13,760
Speaker 2: him in a variety of ways, picking pop Iso on

1333
01:03:13,840 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 2: the block very versatile player. It got to the line

1334
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:20,360
Speaker 2: more frequently than any player in the country. But this

1335
01:03:20,520 --> 01:03:22,800
Speaker 2: is an Ashville team that did get pretty lucky. They're

1336
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:24,760
Speaker 2: kind of like Michigan State Light in that they like

1337
01:03:24,800 --> 01:03:26,800
Speaker 2: they shot forty percent from three, their opponent shop thirty

1338
01:03:26,800 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 2: percent to three in league play, and they won like

1339
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:31,680
Speaker 2: every close game like that. There were projected to win

1340
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 2: like five hundred conference but got two guys in Jones

1341
01:03:34,760 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 2: and Aby who can stroke it from three. Pember can

1342
01:03:37,080 --> 01:03:39,280
Speaker 2: also shoot from three to two, and you have a

1343
01:03:39,360 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 2: star player. Is that enough against UCLA who does have

1344
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:42,800
Speaker 2: injury questions?

1345
01:03:42,880 --> 01:03:43,000
Speaker 3: Right?

1346
01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 2: Jalen Clark not gonna play as one of the best

1347
01:03:45,600 --> 01:03:48,280
Speaker 2: defenders in the country. You know Bona who's apparently gonna play.

1348
01:03:48,720 --> 01:03:50,320
Speaker 2: Maybe he does, maybe he doesn't. Maybe they set him

1349
01:03:50,320 --> 01:03:52,280
Speaker 2: out for this. I don't know. I'm not ky. Do

1350
01:03:52,360 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 2: we have any confirmation on that.

1351
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,760
Speaker 5: I heard he was gonna play, but I'm not positive

1352
01:03:56,800 --> 01:03:57,200
Speaker 5: on that one.

1353
01:03:57,440 --> 01:04:00,840
Speaker 2: That his wallship too. But you like that Bulldogs here

1354
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:01,520
Speaker 2: to keep this close.

1355
01:04:02,520 --> 01:04:05,000
Speaker 3: I do. I think they have enough overall from a

1356
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,320
Speaker 3: three point shooting perspective. Pember needs to play really well,

1357
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:10,360
Speaker 3: but I don't necessarily think he needs to score, you know,

1358
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:13,640
Speaker 3: thirty five and rip down fifteen rebounds, although this year

1359
01:04:13,720 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 3: he averaged close to twenty two nine boards, three and

1360
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:19,560
Speaker 3: a half stocks per game. He finished fifteenth in player

1361
01:04:19,560 --> 01:04:22,840
Speaker 3: efficiency in the win score metrics, so he just showing

1362
01:04:22,880 --> 01:04:24,640
Speaker 3: out of how good he was. He started his career

1363
01:04:24,920 --> 01:04:27,960
Speaker 3: at University of Tennessee using Knoxville kids, stayed in his hometown.

1364
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:30,480
Speaker 3: They went eighteen and one down the stretch, and they're

1365
01:04:30,560 --> 01:04:34,400
Speaker 3: up against a Mick Cronin coach team. I think UCLA's

1366
01:04:34,640 --> 01:04:37,200
Speaker 3: success in the last few years has kind of erased

1367
01:04:37,320 --> 01:04:39,400
Speaker 3: everyone's memory on mccronn, and he used to be mister

1368
01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 3: early exit. All those years at Cincinnati he had six

1369
01:04:43,720 --> 01:04:46,720
Speaker 3: first round exits in the NCAA tournament in his career.

1370
01:04:46,960 --> 01:04:49,160
Speaker 3: He had a bunch of second round exits with Cincinnati

1371
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:53,640
Speaker 3: as well. So with UCLA, their defense obviously is where.

1372
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:55,320
Speaker 6: They were hanging their hat not having Clark.

1373
01:04:55,520 --> 01:04:58,680
Speaker 3: I don't think it's necessarily going to be fatal in

1374
01:04:58,800 --> 01:05:00,800
Speaker 3: this game from a money line perspective, but I do

1375
01:05:00,880 --> 01:05:03,000
Speaker 3: think it makes it easier for them to get looks

1376
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 3: from the perimeter.

1377
01:05:04,040 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 6: And then in general Bona I agree like if he's limited, then.

1378
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:10,760
Speaker 3: Pember is somebody who can not only score inside but

1379
01:05:10,800 --> 01:05:13,960
Speaker 3: also take his defender outside. There's just enough here that

1380
01:05:14,080 --> 01:05:16,880
Speaker 3: I could see UCLA's more in survival mode, where it's like,

1381
01:05:16,960 --> 01:05:19,200
Speaker 3: let's let's get out of this round. Let's let's get

1382
01:05:19,200 --> 01:05:21,240
Speaker 3: our sea legs a little bit in this tournament. Eighteen

1383
01:05:21,280 --> 01:05:22,720
Speaker 3: and a half, I feel like it's a lot. I

1384
01:05:22,800 --> 01:05:25,080
Speaker 3: probably play this down at seventeen, so I'll go ahead

1385
01:05:25,120 --> 01:05:25,640
Speaker 3: with Asheville.

1386
01:05:25,880 --> 01:05:28,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, A couple of things give me pause here. One like,

1387
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:31,600
Speaker 2: can they put just put hakes on Pember a lot?

1388
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:33,600
Speaker 2: And then they because you look at some of the Ashville's,

1389
01:05:33,600 --> 01:05:36,160
Speaker 2: like you know ab and Jones if at like forty

1390
01:05:36,200 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 2: percent of their threes, But they're in the Big South,

1391
01:05:37,920 --> 01:05:40,200
Speaker 2: and a lot of teams have to send to at Pember, right,

1392
01:05:40,200 --> 01:05:42,040
Speaker 2: and then you're getting a lot of open looks that

1393
01:05:42,240 --> 01:05:44,520
Speaker 2: might not be the case here. Asheville also will press

1394
01:05:44,560 --> 01:05:47,360
Speaker 2: a lot, and they do it pretty well, but it's

1395
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 2: the Big South. You can't press UCLA by the way.

1396
01:05:49,600 --> 01:05:53,400
Speaker 2: They're elite and press offense. And then you know, UNCAA

1397
01:05:53,480 --> 01:05:55,240
Speaker 2: wants to get out and run a bunch and get

1398
01:05:55,280 --> 01:05:58,040
Speaker 2: in transition. They're good there can't do that against Ucla,

1399
01:05:58,800 --> 01:05:59,000
Speaker 2: you know.

1400
01:05:59,040 --> 01:06:02,040
Speaker 6: But I I will push back on that last one.

1401
01:06:02,200 --> 01:06:04,360
Speaker 3: I think Clark had a lot to do with just

1402
01:06:04,640 --> 01:06:08,160
Speaker 3: shutting teams down in the running game. So does that

1403
01:06:08,240 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 3: necessarily mean it's a night and day difference.

1404
01:06:10,400 --> 01:06:10,960
Speaker 2: Probably not.

1405
01:06:11,400 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 6: But I do think there's a chance for them to

1406
01:06:13,240 --> 01:06:14,000
Speaker 6: at least get.

1407
01:06:14,040 --> 01:06:16,480
Speaker 3: Some looks and maybe this ends up becoming a first

1408
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:18,720
Speaker 3: step play that I can talk myself into where they

1409
01:06:18,760 --> 01:06:21,120
Speaker 3: get a little bit of success early and UCLA has

1410
01:06:21,160 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 3: to make adjustments in terms of Pember, where I agree

1411
01:06:23,880 --> 01:06:26,120
Speaker 3: like Hakez has the defensive chops to be able to

1412
01:06:26,160 --> 01:06:28,480
Speaker 3: slow him down, but if he's you know, putting in

1413
01:06:28,560 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 3: some work score and some points, maybe they have to double.

1414
01:06:30,760 --> 01:06:32,480
Speaker 6: Maybe things get a little bit dicey in the first

1415
01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 6: ten minutes.

1416
01:06:33,360 --> 01:06:34,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. I don't have a really strong fear.

1417
01:06:35,000 --> 01:06:36,880
Speaker 2: It's not like I love UCLA is a huge favor,

1418
01:06:37,040 --> 01:06:38,680
Speaker 2: especially with some of the injuries are dealing with kay

1419
01:06:38,800 --> 01:06:39,560
Speaker 2: Any thoughts here.

1420
01:06:39,840 --> 01:06:41,080
Speaker 5: I didn't have anything strong either.

1421
01:06:41,280 --> 01:06:43,880
Speaker 4: I leaned towards Ucla because I just think teams that

1422
01:06:44,040 --> 01:06:46,920
Speaker 4: rely so heavily on one or two guys, like Asheville

1423
01:06:46,960 --> 01:06:49,880
Speaker 4: does with Jones and Pember is easier to game plan

1424
01:06:50,000 --> 01:06:53,560
Speaker 4: for easier to scheme. I also kind of can't get

1425
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:56,040
Speaker 4: the unc Asheville game against Arkansas out of my head

1426
01:06:56,360 --> 01:06:58,720
Speaker 4: when they lost by thirty four. Peber gotten foul trouble

1427
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:01,840
Speaker 4: at six points. That's a real issue if you see

1428
01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:03,760
Speaker 4: they can get him in foul trouble, which is possible,

1429
01:07:04,680 --> 01:07:09,040
Speaker 4: and then finally turnovers Asheville's not a good ball handling team. UCLA, Yeah,

1430
01:07:09,040 --> 01:07:11,440
Speaker 4: Clark's did a big part of it. Isiling thing kind

1431
01:07:11,440 --> 01:07:13,280
Speaker 4: of cause them some issues in that realm.

1432
01:07:13,840 --> 01:07:17,600
Speaker 2: All right, good stuff there. Let's one final order of business.

1433
01:07:17,640 --> 01:07:20,280
Speaker 2: Go the best bets of the day. Kyle'll start with you.

1434
01:07:20,720 --> 01:07:22,680
Speaker 5: It's Houston for me again.

1435
01:07:22,760 --> 01:07:25,120
Speaker 4: I just I really do not see how they don't

1436
01:07:25,120 --> 01:07:29,320
Speaker 4: score almost every possession, and I don't see any easy

1437
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:32,440
Speaker 4: path rank you to get buckets. So give me the

1438
01:07:32,680 --> 01:07:35,600
Speaker 4: Houston Cougars minus nineteen ish whatever you can find out there.

1439
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:37,040
Speaker 2: We just talk about this one, so I'll throw it

1440
01:07:37,080 --> 01:07:39,280
Speaker 2: out mine Penn State. I think they match up well

1441
01:07:39,320 --> 01:07:42,080
Speaker 2: on both sides. They cant shoot the three, which is

1442
01:07:42,280 --> 01:07:43,600
Speaker 2: what you need to do against Texa. A and m

1443
01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:45,480
Speaker 2: tex anam a little shock to their system here. They're

1444
01:07:45,520 --> 01:07:47,160
Speaker 2: used to playing in the SEC. And look, we saw

1445
01:07:47,160 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 2: what Alabama did to them when they're making thir threes.

1446
01:07:48,760 --> 01:07:50,240
Speaker 2: It's the one team in the SEC that really can.

1447
01:07:51,000 --> 01:07:53,080
Speaker 2: And on the other side of the ball, every way

1448
01:07:53,160 --> 01:07:55,000
Speaker 2: that tex Am wants to get offense, Penn State can

1449
01:07:55,040 --> 01:07:58,920
Speaker 2: take it away. Trusted mister Pickett and Shrewsbury and company.

1450
01:07:59,120 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 2: Given the Nitny line, it's Mike best bet.

1451
01:08:01,400 --> 01:08:04,080
Speaker 3: Nothing like racing down the steps on Christmas morning to

1452
01:08:04,120 --> 01:08:06,720
Speaker 3: bet under one twenty seven and a half on the

1453
01:08:06,800 --> 01:08:09,040
Speaker 3: first day, a full day of the tournament. But Boise

1454
01:08:09,120 --> 01:08:11,400
Speaker 3: s day in Northwestern Not only are they elaite defensively,

1455
01:08:11,480 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 3: I really like their coaching staffs on both sides to

1456
01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:17,160
Speaker 3: be able to game plan out of Boo Booye going

1457
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:20,519
Speaker 3: off and then on the Boise side, I just looking

1458
01:08:20,560 --> 01:08:23,080
Speaker 3: through all their performances in the last month, I'm just

1459
01:08:23,200 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 3: not scared of their offense. I think this could be

1460
01:08:25,040 --> 01:08:27,280
Speaker 3: one of those tournament games where it's like fifty seven

1461
01:08:27,320 --> 01:08:30,240
Speaker 3: to fifty five and just crosses over that hundred point

1462
01:08:30,280 --> 01:08:32,640
Speaker 3: threshold with a few minutes to go. So I'll go

1463
01:08:32,800 --> 01:08:34,840
Speaker 3: under one twenty seven and a half as my best

1464
01:08:34,920 --> 01:08:36,839
Speaker 3: play of the first round on Thursday.

1465
01:08:37,160 --> 01:08:38,840
Speaker 2: All Right, there you have it. Thanks to all of

1466
01:08:38,920 --> 01:08:42,800
Speaker 2: you for tuning in, Thanks to Mike and Kai of

1467
01:08:42,920 --> 01:08:45,320
Speaker 2: the Three man We for joining me. Thanks for audio

1468
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:48,040
Speaker 2: video teams on the back end. Make sure you download

1469
01:08:48,040 --> 01:08:50,000
Speaker 2: the Wrpining Action NEPP NETWORKAP. You can find all of

1470
01:08:50,040 --> 01:08:52,400
Speaker 2: our picks there, in addition to an abundance of data

1471
01:08:52,439 --> 01:08:56,679
Speaker 2: and content thanks to our sponsor bet MGM. Enjoy the madness,

1472
01:08:57,439 --> 01:09:00,920
Speaker 2: Merry Christmas times too. The three point bevarance. We do

1473
01:09:00,960 --> 01:09:02,120
Speaker 2: all this work and a lot of times it's just

1474
01:09:02,160 --> 01:09:03,680
Speaker 2: going to come down to who makes the three. So

1475
01:09:03,880 --> 01:09:06,120
Speaker 2: hopefully the threes are shing for our teams and not

1476
01:09:06,320 --> 01:09:09,400
Speaker 2: falling for the teams we bet against. Regardless, it's gonna

1477
01:09:09,400 --> 01:09:12,960
Speaker 2: be fun. It's a betting bonanza. Enjoy it, bet responsibly

1478
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:17,240
Speaker 2: as always, and we will see you over the weekend. Cheers.

1479
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:34,640
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1480
01:09:34,720 --> 01:09:37,479
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1481
01:09:37,479 --> 01:09:40,599
Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler