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Speaker 1: From the red carpet arrivals to glamorous after parties. It's

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Speaker 1: the most magical night of the year. And today The

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Speaker 1: Action Network honors Hollywood the best way we know how,

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Speaker 1: by helping you profit up the monumental creative achievements of others.

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Speaker 1: And what's more Hollywood than that, Let's gamble on the

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Speaker 1: Academy Awards.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is our annual

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Speaker 2: Academy Awards Betting preview episode. I am your host, Chris

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Speaker 2: Raybon here with Ryan McKee, Senior Content creator at the

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Speaker 2: Action Network, an entertainment industry veteran.

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Speaker 3: Emmy winner, Emmy voter.

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Speaker 2: Also joined by Colin Wilson, college sports connoisseur and gambling

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Speaker 2: expert here at the Action Network, and today we'll be

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Speaker 2: covering the betting market for eight MANUS categories Best Pitcher,

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Speaker 2: Best Director, Best Actor and Actress, Best Supporting Actor and

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Speaker 2: Supporting Actress, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay. But

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Speaker 2: don't worry, there is much more where that came from.

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Speaker 2: Later this week, I'll also be returning for a second

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Speaker 2: episode our short Oscars Best Bets show with my colleagues

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Speaker 2: Katie rich Creek and Colin Whitchurch will quickly deliver picks

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Speaker 2: across even more categories, so stay tuned for that. As

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Speaker 2: a reminder, this is the ninety fourth Oscars presentation, airing

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Speaker 2: live from the Adobe Theater in Hollywood, California, Sunday, March

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Speaker 2: twenty seventh, eight pm Eastern, five pm Pacific on ABC

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Speaker 2: Legal US. Betting on the Oscars is still fairly new.

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Speaker 2: It was not permitted until twenty nineteen, so there are

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Speaker 2: still plenty of opportunities to get this sh money. Colin Ryan,

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Speaker 2: Let's get right into Best Picture.

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Speaker 4: Thank Jim Well, and finally it all comes down to this,

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Speaker 4: the Best Picture and the Moment Dijon.

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Speaker 2: The nominees are Power of the Dog minus one, forty Child,

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Speaker 2: the Death Adults at plus one ten, Belfast at twelve

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Speaker 2: to one, King Richard twenty five to one, West Side

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Speaker 2: Story thirty five to one, Dune forty to one, Don't

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Speaker 2: Look Up, and Liquorice Pizza both at fifty to one.

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Speaker 2: Drive My Car one of my favorites eighty to one,

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Speaker 2: and Nightmare Alley bringing up the rear at one hundred

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Speaker 2: to one.

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Speaker 3: So Colin, I'll kick it to you first.

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Speaker 2: What do you think about the field in general, and

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Speaker 2: do you kind of agree with the kind of co

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Speaker 2: front runners being the Power.

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Speaker 3: Of the Dog and childhood death Adults. Well, first, I

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Speaker 3: want to welcome Ryan to the podcast. Since we've been

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Speaker 3: doing this for a couple of years, Ryan doesn't understand

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Speaker 3: the pain we went through of buying Cynthia Rivo for

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Speaker 3: Best Supporting Actress, moving that fifty to one all the

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Speaker 3: way to fifteen to one only so Renee Zelwiger could

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Speaker 3: get up there and say you really love me, I

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Speaker 3: feel loved. That was like one of the worst moments

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Speaker 3: in my betting life. So welcome Ryan to the Pain.

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Speaker 5: Well, thank you.

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Speaker 6: I know you've had a lot of worst moments, gambling

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Speaker 6: moments in your life, so that's pretty special that rings

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Speaker 6: up that high.

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Speaker 3: You know, Chris, I think this is kind of a

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Speaker 3: weak class. You and I sat here a couple of

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Speaker 3: years ago. I walked out of nineteen seventeen ready to

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Speaker 3: join the British Army in World War One. I watched

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Speaker 3: Parasite and I was ready to, I guess, stab everybody

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Speaker 3: at a birthday party. Those were two of the most

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Speaker 3: amazing movies I've seen in a really long time, and

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Speaker 3: half this list. I felt confused watching Done. I fell

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Speaker 3: asleep during west Side's story. Although my daughter loved it.

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Speaker 3: Drive my Car is three hours long. I know you

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Speaker 3: liked it, you recommend it. I watched it. It's three

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Speaker 3: hours long. We're stuck with Power of the Dog and

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Speaker 3: CODA at the top, and I don't think you can

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Speaker 3: consider of the rest. So I'm sure if you know,

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Speaker 3: Ryan's gonna have any opinions about him. But you know

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Speaker 3: how I bet on this. It's all about average nomination

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Speaker 3: size and the score average, right, And this was the

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Speaker 3: downfall of nineteen seventeen. And I mentioned nineteen seventy, and

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Speaker 3: keep going back to that because there's so many ties

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Speaker 3: between nineteen seventeen and CODA. Nineteen seventy didn't have the

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Speaker 3: average nomination score of its competitors. It was missing Best Acting,

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Speaker 3: it was missing Best Film Editing nominations. CODA doesn't have

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Speaker 3: Best Editing, it doesn't have Best Actor or Best Actress.

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Speaker 3: And you have to ask, can CODA win this award

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Speaker 3: on a bunch of second place nominations? We talk about

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Speaker 3: that all the time. If voters, which they've expanded, and

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Speaker 3: if they put in a bunch of second place votes

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Speaker 3: for Coda, then it can win, right, because maybe Power

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Speaker 3: the Dog falls down, you know, more importantly, does Power

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Speaker 3: of the Dog take more third place votes because of

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Speaker 3: a perceived Netflix bias or we'll talk about Best Director

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Speaker 3: coming up. There's some so things going on in the

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Speaker 3: social landscape that maybe people are disregarding this movie. So

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Speaker 3: for me, I laid Power of the Dog months ago.

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Speaker 3: I know we put out an article over at Action

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Speaker 3: saying you better hop on this. Now this is getting

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Speaker 3: a lot of attention. Am I going to come back

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Speaker 3: and fire on Coda? I don't think I can't because

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Speaker 3: it's the nineteen seventeen trap. We don't have best acting,

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Speaker 3: we don't have best editing. Ryan, what do you think

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Speaker 3: about it?

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Speaker 6: I'm in agreement with most of what you say, except

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Speaker 6: for I do think that CODA has a very good

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Speaker 6: chance to win. And the fact that the odds have

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Speaker 6: moved so much in the last week tells me that

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Speaker 6: somebody knows seems to know something, unless it can't all

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Speaker 6: just be that industry insiders are just talking about it,

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Speaker 6: and the books have moved it that much.

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Speaker 5: That seems surprising to me.

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Speaker 6: And I understand what you're saying with the lack of

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Speaker 6: nominations compared to some of.

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Speaker 5: The other Best Pictures.

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Speaker 6: But this is a new Academy Awards with a lot

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Speaker 6: more voters, right, they changed the structure of the voting.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so you have to rank them.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, it's almost ten thousand people now, and twenty sixteen

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Speaker 6: was the first time that they brought in all those voters.

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Speaker 6: Moonlight one they didn't have all the nominations. It's very

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Speaker 6: much you know, same with Nomad Land, they didn't have

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Speaker 6: as many nominet I.

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Speaker 2: Was not like speaking of a weak field. Don't even

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Speaker 2: get me started. Sorry, I just had I just had

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Speaker 2: to throw a regsite.

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Speaker 6: Didn't have the Best Acting Best Actor nominations either. I

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Speaker 6: feel like this is you can't really think of Best

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Speaker 6: Picture like we did prior.

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Speaker 5: To twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 6: So it seems like these heartfelt movies that really resonate

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Speaker 6: with people, whether they're like big budget or not, those

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Speaker 6: seem to be what's winning in Best Picture since twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 3: Can I let me ask a question for Chris gives

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Speaker 3: a sake? Rian is a person that's an you know,

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Speaker 3: an Emmy voter. Does the company that produces it, like

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Speaker 3: a Netflix or an Apple TV does that even matter anymore?

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Speaker 3: Because there was this perceived notion that Netflix there was

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Speaker 3: a bias against them ever winning anything you know coming

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Speaker 3: up short, whether it's TV or movies, Is that is

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Speaker 3: that really a thing?

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Speaker 5: That could be a thing?

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Speaker 6: People in the industry who work for Netflix are voting,

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Speaker 6: and for a long time they said, well, when Disney's

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Speaker 6: up for anything, Disney was really good at motivating all

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Speaker 6: its employees to make sure to vote at whatever awards

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Speaker 6: that was in, whether it was the Animation Awards, whether

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Speaker 6: it was Academy Awards. But all of the big companies

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Speaker 6: have taken a page from Disney. And when I worked

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Speaker 6: at CBS, we got constant reminders to make sure to

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Speaker 6: vote for the Emmys. So I feel like it's kind

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Speaker 6: of leveled the playing field. I don't think there is

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Speaker 6: an innate bias against Netflix anymore because most of Hollywood

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Speaker 6: has worked for them. Now they're hiring everybody.

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Speaker 3: Right, I hear you. I don't think there is a bias.

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Speaker 2: The love for CODA is real, and by CODA we

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Speaker 2: mean Child of Death adults.

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Speaker 3: That's what it stands for.

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Speaker 2: If you haven't seen the movie, it is about a

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Speaker 2: family that is mainly deaf except for one of their children.

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Speaker 2: And it's kind of about how to navigate that and

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Speaker 2: how you know, how they're each affected by it, and

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Speaker 2: how you know they have to kind of make different

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Speaker 2: kind of sacrifices.

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Speaker 3: Along the way and whatnot. But here's here's how I

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Speaker 3: do this.

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Speaker 2: If you follow me for a while betting these things,

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Speaker 2: you know, I rely heavily on a site called golderby

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Speaker 2: dot com. It's kind of an industry insider site, a

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Speaker 2: lot of experts that kind of the They essentially vote

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Speaker 2: on who they think is going to win. And so

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Speaker 2: I've tried it a lot of different ways. I know,

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Speaker 2: you know, I've spoken to Ben's Osmer. We had them

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Speaker 2: on a serious show a couple of years ago, who

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Speaker 2: does oscar metrics.

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Speaker 3: But I think the one.

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Speaker 2: Flaw with the model like his, as I think it

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Speaker 2: overrates the essentially the ones that have no chance to win,

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Speaker 2: and it doesn't really look at it doesn't give a

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Speaker 2: high enough value to the ones that do. And so

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Speaker 2: if you're kind of extrapolating that to odds, you know,

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Speaker 2: translating that into what the implied out should be, I

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Speaker 2: think you're gonna end up betting on too many underdogs,

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Speaker 2: you're not gonna end up betting on enough favorite. So

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Speaker 2: looking at gold Derby, Child of Death Adults is the favorite,

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Speaker 2: the front runner on gold Derby. It's getting about fifty

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Speaker 2: nine percent of the of the vote on gold Derby,

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Speaker 2: whereas Power of the Dog is only getting thirty percent. Now,

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Speaker 2: this category kind of sucks to me to bet out

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Speaker 2: of all the categories. Kind of goories we'll talk about

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Speaker 2: because the issue with the fact that the industry seems

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Speaker 2: to be on Child to Death Adults, and that's because

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Speaker 2: they went up the producer's guilds. That's it's a little

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Speaker 2: bit of recency bias too. But my issue is that

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Speaker 2: Power of the Dog is still the betting favor. So

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Speaker 2: it's kind of it's kind of a worst of both

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Speaker 2: worlds where I kind of agree with you Colin that

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Speaker 2: like Power the Dog is, I think the better movie

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Speaker 2: and probably still should be kind of the front runner,

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Speaker 2: but at the end of the day, the industry is

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Speaker 2: saying it's not.

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Speaker 3: So it's like I don't trust either of these movies.

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Speaker 2: I think there's more value on Coda here because it's

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Speaker 2: plus one ten at DraftKings, and you know, the gold

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Speaker 2: Derby is saying it has about a sixty percent chance

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Speaker 2: to win. But if we look back until last year,

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Speaker 2: but like Ryan you talked about twenty sixteen, things started

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Speaker 2: changing from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty. Whoever, the industry,

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Speaker 2: which is gold Derby said, was the front runner lost

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Speaker 2: every year from twenty sixteen to twenty twenty until Nomad Land.

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Speaker 2: So from twya sixteen to twenty twenty, it was the

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Speaker 2: number two film that that goal there we predicted, and.

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Speaker 3: That's Power of the Dog. So I'm kind of split

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Speaker 3: here where I think.

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Speaker 2: You know, purely from a gut perspective, I say Power

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Speaker 2: the Dog is going to win, But purely from a

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Speaker 2: value perspective, I'd say the right play is coda, because

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Speaker 2: you're still getting it at plus money. What I'm hoping

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Speaker 2: happens is that the odds kind of line up right

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Speaker 2: where now that Child of Death Adults is the you know,

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Speaker 2: front runner amongst the insiders in the industry. I'm hoping

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Speaker 2: the betting odds begin to reflect that and we can

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Speaker 2: get Power of the Dog as an underdog, you know

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Speaker 2: at plus money and even money are better. If I

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Speaker 2: can get Power of the Dog and even money.

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Speaker 3: Or better that's what I'm taking.

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Speaker 2: If it comes down to me taking Coda, you know

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Speaker 2: it's already at plus one ten, I'd rather just pass.

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Speaker 3: So that's kind of how I'm looking at it. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: but I think there's going to be major steam on

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Speaker 3: the day of the Academy Awards. So if you're listening

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Speaker 3: to this and one of these is an underdog, preferably Coda,

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Speaker 3: if you could buy that plus one to ten, it's

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Speaker 3: getting so much steam. Let's put it this way. I

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Speaker 3: have a house full of teens and public service announcement

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Speaker 3: about Chris Raybond. He told me my family needs to

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Speaker 3: watch Coda. Got the whole family on the couch. They're crying.

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Speaker 3: We're bawling our eyes out. I'm not gonna bust what

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Speaker 3: the movie is and how it ends, but we could

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Speaker 3: not stop crying. Thank you, Chris Raybond. But Power of

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Speaker 3: the Dog is not a movie you can put your

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Speaker 3: teenagers in front of. It is so complex and has

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Speaker 3: so many turns, and I think the fact that it

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Speaker 3: hits a different group of voters, and we're talking about

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Speaker 3: the Academy voters being larger, but also Ryan, we were

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Speaker 3: talking about it trying to be all inclusive, right, we

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Speaker 3: want to have a huge variety, right, right, And does

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Speaker 3: Power of the Dog not hit so many different groups

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Speaker 3: from so many ways that I think I think Chris

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Speaker 3: is right. I think there's gonna be a lot of

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Speaker 3: second place votes here. So Power of the Dog, if

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Speaker 3: you're listening to this in Coda's of you know, like

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Speaker 3: a plus one ten or plus money, I think you

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Speaker 3: got to go a little bit on that and just

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Speaker 3: know that Power of the Dog is probably going to

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Speaker 3: be plus money the day on Sunday, the day of

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Speaker 3: the Oscars, and I would take some back right there.

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Speaker 3: So that's the way I executed on hitting it at

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Speaker 3: like four to one before this huge steam came in

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Speaker 3: on CODA. But yes, I'm going to come back on

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Speaker 3: Power of the Dog. I would do the same.

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Speaker 5: That's the smartest way to do it.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Absolutely.

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Speaker 2: That's the issue is that CODA is still a value

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Speaker 2: right now as we're recording this, but it's down to

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Speaker 2: win ten already. So you can make a small profit

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Speaker 2: by betting on CODA now and hopefully likely also getting

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Speaker 2: Power of the Dog as a you know, plus money

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Speaker 2: as well. But it's like it's such a tiny profit

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Speaker 2: at this point that. Yeah, hopefully. I think Power of

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Speaker 2: the Dog, you know, we get it at plus money

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Speaker 2: because I think that will ultimately be the winner.

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Speaker 3: I gotta find your oscar limits where it's like a thousand,

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Speaker 3: two thousand, then you can. Yeah, it's a little bit

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Speaker 3: more on a Chipotle bowl. Right.

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Speaker 2: Let's get into Best Director, and the nominees are Jane

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Speaker 2: Champion from Power of the Dog, a prohibited favorite at

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Speaker 2: minus thirty five hundred, Kenneth brown Up from Belfast Is

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Speaker 2: twelve to one, Steven Spielberg West Side Story fourteen oh one,

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Speaker 2: Paul Thomas Anderson Licorice Pizza Is twenty to one, and

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Speaker 2: Rasuki Hamaguchi from Driving My Car thirty five to one. Ryan,

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Speaker 2: I'll start with you this time, you know, I guess

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Speaker 2: the real question is can anyone unseat Jane Campion for

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Speaker 2: Power of the Dog. We kind of talked about, you know,

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Speaker 2: for Best Picture you might be able to unseat it,

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Speaker 2: But what about here for Best Director?

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Speaker 6: Don't I don't feel like it's worth talking about that much.

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Speaker 6: I feel like she is the favorite. It's not it's

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Speaker 6: not good value to bet on her. She has been

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Speaker 6: around Hollywood for a long time, and she goes Back

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Speaker 6: to the Piano in nineteen ninety three, where eleven year

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Speaker 6: old Anna Paquin won.

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Speaker 5: For Best Supporting Actors. She directed that movie.

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Speaker 6: So I feel like she is has been around, worked

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Speaker 6: with everybody, and we had Chloe zau win last year

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Speaker 6: as the second woman to ever win Director. I feel

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Speaker 6: like we're on a roll here. I think it's definitely

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Speaker 6: going to be Jane Campion.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, listen, I have to one hundred percent completely agree,

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Speaker 3: but there is that one percent inside of me that

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Speaker 3: it's a degenerate gambler. I mean I gamble on WWE,

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Speaker 3: so of course if I can get some sort of

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Speaker 3: long shot dog here. It's hard for me to look

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Speaker 3: at Kenneth Bronagg, who from a Belfast perspective, that was

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Speaker 3: the hot name about three months ago, and now the

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Speaker 3: odds on Belfast has fallen completely out everywhere, especially director.

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Speaker 3: And the question is do we want to lay maybe

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Speaker 3: a ten to twenty thirty dollars bet on one of

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Speaker 3: these names, not power of the dog in Jane Campion.

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Speaker 3: And you know the story is, whoever wins the Director's

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Speaker 3: Guild wins the Oscar for Best Director. It never fails

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Speaker 3: except when parasite broke it down and bog June who Ho,

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Speaker 3: you know, broke the mold. And you know, I think

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Speaker 3: Sam Inndez had closing odds of like minus five point

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Speaker 3: fifty for nineteen seventeen and he didn't win. So that

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Speaker 3: was one of the craziest things I've ever seen. But

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Speaker 3: I think Parasite just might be one of those anomalies.

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Speaker 3: Like for the first time in like fifty years, whoever

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Speaker 3: won the Director's Gil didn't win Best Director, so you

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Speaker 3: kind of have to There's some things happening outside of

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Speaker 3: Power of the Dog that I think if you're going

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Speaker 3: to entertain a bet outside of Jane Campion, you're gonna

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Speaker 3: want to know these things. Sam Elliott, longtime actor, came out.

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Speaker 3: He said, you know, this is a movie with cowboys

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Speaker 3: and shirtless with chaps and illusions of homosexuality, and Campion,

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Speaker 3: you know, called Elliott a son of a bitch. And

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Speaker 3: then you know, Campion accepted her award, and in doing so,

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Speaker 3: she referred to Venus and Serena Williams never having to

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Speaker 3: beat the boys and that I have to beat the

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Speaker 3: boys all the time, and then she had to walk

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Speaker 3: back those comments, you know, like it was really bad.

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Speaker 3: Look for to walk that back, because Venus and Serena

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Speaker 3: have face men and beat them before. My question is

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Speaker 3: is with this award, does some sort of the negative

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Speaker 3: press that's going on with Jane Campion does that affect

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Speaker 3: any of the voting base here? Does that take some

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Speaker 3: of her votes away? I don't think minus thirty five

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Speaker 3: hundred is parlayable. I don't think it's playable. And if

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Speaker 3: I had to throw some money down, I mean, I

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Speaker 3: just I don't. Did none of these other directors stick out,

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Speaker 3: they didn't win a Director's Guild. But there are things

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Speaker 3: going on socially outside of this movie where Jane Campion

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Speaker 3: has been in some dicey situations, and I don't know

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Speaker 3: if that's going to cost her some votes. Will it

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Speaker 3: be enough? I don't know. I am just gonna tell everybody,

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Speaker 3: don't parlay this movie, don't don't parlay Jane Campion with

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Speaker 3: other things, and don't lay a bet on this. I

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Speaker 3: think there are other things socially that could affect some

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Speaker 3: of her votes, and I don't know if that's going

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Speaker 3: to change who wins. It shouldn't, but it might.

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Speaker 6: I think that's smart analysis, But I go back to that.

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Speaker 6: I stay away from it as well.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like she's such a prohibited favorite. And here's

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Speaker 2: the thing about Parasite, because I was all over Paris

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Speaker 2: that I love parasac Like you guys, we all just

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Speaker 2: finished talking about how the main challenger.

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Speaker 3: Two Power of the Dog is Childs of Death adult.

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Speaker 2: Well that's not direct, that's not nominated for a directing award. So,

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Speaker 2: like Parasite was a better movie than nineteen seventeen. I mean,

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Speaker 2: not everyone will agree with me, but I think enough

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Speaker 2: people will.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it did win the Best Picture after all.

355
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Speaker 2: Right, so like there's no movie on here that's better

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Speaker 2: than Power of the Dog, you know, to then give

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Speaker 2: them the directing award. So and like Belfast really wasn't

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Speaker 2: that good. I don't I didn't even understand how, Like

359
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Speaker 2: it was cool, but it wasn't like great. I don't

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Speaker 2: even know what the hype was about.

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Speaker 6: Well, it's a very personal it's a very personal movie

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Speaker 6: to Kenneth Rana Gat.

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Speaker 2: I'm not kind of I'm not Keindeth Brouna though, I'm

364
00:17:36,040 --> 00:17:37,960
Speaker 2: not Kenneth Rana though, Like I don't care. Yeah, like

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Speaker 2: I don't think most people voting care to be honest.

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Speaker 3: For those of you that haven't seen the Power of

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Speaker 3: the Dog. I think Campion did an amazing job of

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Speaker 3: like there's sort of this build for forty five minutes,

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Speaker 3: and Benedict Cumberbatch is such a dominating presence in this

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Speaker 3: movie that after forty five minutes and you know, all

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Speaker 3: the players in this movie, every five minutes, you're like,

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Speaker 3: oh shit, we're going there. Oh, oh shit, this just happened.

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Speaker 3: Oh shit. Like so I like, you know that there's

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Speaker 3: some bad stuff coming down the pipe here, you don't

375
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Speaker 3: know who it's gonna be or how it's gonna happen.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 3: Some amazing performances, but the direction of the movie was

378
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Speaker 3: perfect because it always kept you guessing the last hour

379
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Speaker 3: or so of the movie, much better than all the

380
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Speaker 3: rest of the ones on this list. So I agree

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Speaker 3: with that. I just don't know if the outside forces

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Speaker 3: are going to cost her some boats.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, like like Licor's Pizza, Like it kept you guessing,

384
00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:25,840
Speaker 2: but it was just more like a wild ride with

385
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,960
Speaker 2: It wasn't like oh big reveal where it's like Power.

386
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Speaker 3: Of the Dog.

387
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Speaker 2: I felt like had a couple of big reveals and

388
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Speaker 2: just the way they kind of drew you in with

389
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 2: EXTU and then Drive My Car had that potential, but

390
00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,520
Speaker 2: like you said, it was it was just very long.

391
00:18:39,280 --> 00:18:41,080
Speaker 2: I think you could have done a little if you had,

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Speaker 2: if the director had done a little better of a

393
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,399
Speaker 2: job at maybe condensing it, like me, like, yo, they

394
00:18:45,600 --> 00:18:48,440
Speaker 2: like forty an hour in the credit started rolling and

395
00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:50,119
Speaker 2: I'm like, hey, is the movie over, and it's.

396
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:51,800
Speaker 3: Like no, the movie's actually just starting now.

397
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Speaker 2: It was just a code though, So it's like, yeah,

398
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Speaker 2: I think Power of the Dog's the best movie on

399
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Speaker 2: this list, and I think Jane camp And was the

400
00:19:00,400 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 2: best director on this list for this movie. So you know,

401
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 2: Steven Spielberg, he's acclaimed. But you know, the rest of

402
00:19:07,040 --> 00:19:08,080
Speaker 2: My story was a remake.

403
00:19:08,160 --> 00:19:08,479
Speaker 3: It was.

404
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,400
Speaker 2: It was cool, but I don't see it. I don't

405
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Speaker 2: see it kind of coming out of nowhere to unseat her.

406
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Speaker 2: So yeah, this is a stay away. That's what we're

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Speaker 2: doing for Best Director, all right, Best Actor, Ladies and gentlemen,

408
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Speaker 2: Academy Award winner Francis McDorman.

409
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Speaker 5: They'll take us sit up straight and at presentable.

410
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Speaker 6: The five distinguished nominees for Best Actor in a Leading.

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Speaker 2: Role are the nominees will Smith, King Richard minus eight

412
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Speaker 2: hundred the favorite, Benett Kimberbatch The Power of the Dog

413
00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:53,239
Speaker 2: four and a half to one, Andrew Garfield Tic Tick

414
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 2: Boom eleven to one, Denzel Washington The Tragedy of Macbeth's

415
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,120
Speaker 2: which was not a great movie at twenty five to one,

416
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:05,800
Speaker 2: and Javier bardem From being the Riccardo's He's at forty

417
00:20:05,840 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 2: to one. Colin will Smith has been the favorite. He's

418
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:11,520
Speaker 2: winning the precursors.

419
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 5: What do you think?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? And this is I wrote about this when the

421
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 3: Oscar nominations were put out. There's an article that we

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Speaker 3: have over on Action Network where I said, what's the

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Speaker 3: bet you got to make now? And I said, you've

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Speaker 3: got to go and hit Benedict Cumberbatch four to one.

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Speaker 3: And the reason is why is because this category is

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Speaker 3: so dependent on who wins the Bafta. The Bafta for

427
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Speaker 3: Best Male Support, I'm sorry for Best Actor is dependent

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Speaker 3: on that. And when you get a British actor that

429
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Speaker 3: is in a British produced film, which Power of the

430
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Speaker 3: Dog is a semi British produced, Canadian produced French produce,

431
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Speaker 3: but there's some British in there. When you get that combination,

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Speaker 3: you absolutely get a Best Actor winner. And if you

433
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Speaker 3: want case in point, they tailored that whole Academy Awards

434
00:20:56,040 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 3: last year around Best Actor, expecting it to be Chadwick

435
00:21:01,200 --> 00:21:03,440
Speaker 3: and it turned out to be Anthony Hopkins, who wasn't

436
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,120
Speaker 3: even there. They just cut the show off Anthony Hopkins,

437
00:21:07,119 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 3: Sir Anthony Hopkins, bye, see y'all later into the show

438
00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 3: and what did the odds close that? Because I know

439
00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 3: that I got Anthony Hopkins at like seven to one,

440
00:21:14,359 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 3: so this one is heavily tied to And Anthony Hopkins

441
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,320
Speaker 3: did win for the Father. He won the BAFTA. It

442
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 3: was a British produced movie. That's why I bet it

443
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 3: again that flows here. But Benedict Cumberbatch didn't win the

444
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 3: BAFTAs last week. Will Smith did. And I don't know

445
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:35,159
Speaker 3: about you guys. I saw both movies and it's funny.

446
00:21:34,840 --> 00:21:37,000
Speaker 3: My kids kind of refer to me as you know,

447
00:21:37,119 --> 00:21:39,439
Speaker 3: Richard Williams. I'm kind of grumpy. I kind of move

448
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,520
Speaker 3: around around them. I'm kind of I growl in the morning.

449
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:45,399
Speaker 3: You know, I'm unhappy about things in the direction of

450
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 3: like their teachers. And but you know, I thought Been

451
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 3: at A Cumberbatch was the way better role the much

452
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:56,400
Speaker 3: more so many dimensions and layers to that character. I'm

453
00:21:56,480 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 3: shocked that Will Smith took the BAFTA, but I'm not

454
00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 3: going to be shocked when he Best Actor because it's

455
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 3: tied so heavily to The Bathtub.

456
00:22:03,240 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 6: I agree that Benedict Kumerbatch is a better actor and

457
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:10,080
Speaker 6: he did a better job in Power of the Dog. However,

458
00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,120
Speaker 6: there's such a human element with the voting in it.

459
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 6: You can't pick that away, and they a lot of

460
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,120
Speaker 6: times these kind of are a lifetime Achievement award as

461
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:22,440
Speaker 6: well as what they did for that particular movie. Will

462
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,159
Speaker 6: Smith has been around for a long time. Everybody in

463
00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 6: Hollywood likes him. The voting for Academy Awards, it's not

464
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,600
Speaker 6: like the Emmys. The Emmys you can only vote in

465
00:22:31,600 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 6: your own categories, like actors vote for actors. You don't

466
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,439
Speaker 6: get like a lighting guy voting for actors, but you

467
00:22:38,520 --> 00:22:43,399
Speaker 6: do in the Academy Awards. So it helps to be

468
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:47,280
Speaker 6: well liked around all of Hollywood. And Will Smith certainly

469
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,880
Speaker 6: is I'm not saying Romabach isn't.

470
00:22:49,720 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 3: But why this is doctor Strange. He brought all the

471
00:22:52,240 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 3: Avengers back.

472
00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 2: That doesn't that deserve a Lifetime Achievement Award?

473
00:22:56,320 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 5: I agree with you on that point, but I can't

474
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:00,960
Speaker 5: bet on any anybody but Will Smith.

475
00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, And another thing we should mention is just like

476
00:23:03,640 --> 00:23:06,240
Speaker 2: I think, you know at gold Derby, you know there

477
00:23:06,320 --> 00:23:08,520
Speaker 2: is some recency bias, especially with Coda and you know,

478
00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: having just won the Producer's Guild, which is the most

479
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 2: recent awards show, Like, there's also a recency bias in

480
00:23:13,440 --> 00:23:16,480
Speaker 2: like people will look at last year and say, well,

481
00:23:16,880 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 2: be Bozman was a big favorite and he didn't win it.

482
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 2: But that doesn't mean that that's going to happen every year.

483
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,080
Speaker 2: I think you still have to play it year by year.

484
00:23:23,320 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 2: You have to play it by the value. And what's

485
00:23:25,359 --> 00:23:29,800
Speaker 2: interesting to me is Smith is getting ninety two percent

486
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,400
Speaker 2: of the gold Derby votes and that equates to about

487
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 2: a minus eleven fifty odds, and he's only a minus

488
00:23:36,760 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 2: eight hundred, So it's not sexy. You're not going to

489
00:23:39,040 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: really win much. So I mean, most people probably aren't

490
00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:44,920
Speaker 2: even gonna bother. But there is actually a little bit

491
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 2: of value here, or a good amount of value on

492
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:51,159
Speaker 2: Will Smith here, even at minus eight hundred, because he

493
00:23:51,160 --> 00:23:55,199
Speaker 2: should be into the the quadruple digits here. So I

494
00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:58,120
Speaker 2: think Will Smith is the right play. I think he's

495
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,479
Speaker 2: the only play. And this one, I would say it's

496
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:02,400
Speaker 2: a little more parlayable, would you guys agree?

497
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:05,160
Speaker 3: Yeah? Yeah, one ofercent. This is a parlay piece. Yeah,

498
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 3: it's a parlay piece. Go down and oh, I don't

499
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 3: even know how they're doing sound anymore. Right, sound's been

500
00:24:09,960 --> 00:24:12,280
Speaker 3: broken up in different rules even written. But go down

501
00:24:12,280 --> 00:24:14,400
Speaker 3: and find somebody less than minus two hundred and throw

502
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,440
Speaker 3: it in a parlay Yeah. So for Best Actor, Will

503
00:24:18,480 --> 00:24:20,160
Speaker 3: Smith King Richard.

504
00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 2: Let's move on to Best Actress, and.

505
00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 6: Here are the nominees for Best Performance by an Actress

506
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 6: in a Leading Role.

507
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:32,600
Speaker 2: Andy nominees Jessica Chastain The Eyes of Tammy Fay has

508
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 2: emerged as the favorite at minus one seventy five, Nicole

509
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,520
Speaker 2: Kidman being the Ricardos three and a half to one,

510
00:24:39,640 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: Olivia Coleman The Lost Daughter five to one, Kristin Stewart

511
00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 2: Spencer seven to one, and Penelope Cruz for Parallel Mothers

512
00:24:49,480 --> 00:24:53,160
Speaker 2: is bringing up the rear at twenty to one. Ryan,

513
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:54,800
Speaker 2: how do you feel about How do you feel about

514
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:56,639
Speaker 2: this one? It's a pretty wide open I would say

515
00:24:56,640 --> 00:24:58,240
Speaker 2: there's been a different favorite every time I look.

516
00:24:58,280 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 6: Almost one of the old betting truth of the Academy

517
00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,400
Speaker 6: Awards is you want to you want to pick people

518
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,880
Speaker 6: playing real characters, right, and in this you have three

519
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,000
Speaker 6: real characters, Tammy Fay, Nicole Kidman as Lucy o'bal, and

520
00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 6: Christen Stewart as the Princess. And I feel like there's

521
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 6: a world where those are going to kind of cancel

522
00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 6: each other out in their votes. And Olivia Coleman, who

523
00:25:24,520 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 6: was Wow, such a force in that movie and such

524
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 6: and has been on a run for the last few years,

525
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:35,880
Speaker 6: having won a couple of years ago for the Favorite

526
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,800
Speaker 6: and then nominated last year for Father.

527
00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:42,639
Speaker 5: I like her at those odds at plus five hundred.

528
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 3: Boy hitting the nail on the head, I mean, first off,

529
00:25:45,560 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 3: who cast Christian Stewart as a young Diana? Who did

530
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:51,800
Speaker 3: that mean? Come on now? I mean because she looks

531
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:54,359
Speaker 3: good making a scrowl. That's not Diana. You know, it

532
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 3: was terrible casting.

533
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:56,320
Speaker 4: All right?

534
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,480
Speaker 3: So you know, really the Ryan's right, the majority of

535
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,719
Speaker 3: this award goes to, you know, characters that really existed

536
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 3: in the past, and I think from a Jessica's Chastain standpoint,

537
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:10,280
Speaker 3: like I did not recognize Jessica Chastain, the Turning her

538
00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 3: into Tammy Faye was like, that is ridiculous what they

539
00:26:13,040 --> 00:26:16,439
Speaker 3: did at Jessica Chastain looked nothing like her whatsoever. The performance.

540
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:19,680
Speaker 3: I just can't get into it because the movie itself

541
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:23,000
Speaker 3: is just too much for me. But really, you need

542
00:26:23,000 --> 00:26:25,520
Speaker 3: to look at historical characters, and you're right, there's a

543
00:26:25,520 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 3: few of them. They can't sell each other out. The

544
00:26:27,320 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 3: second thing you look at per you know, Ben's Osmer

545
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:32,879
Speaker 3: in this for Best Actresses age, you want to go

546
00:26:33,000 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 3: under thirty five, you want to go over sixty. That

547
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:37,919
Speaker 3: seems to be there's sort of like a dead period

548
00:26:37,920 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 3: in between that, and then Renee Zilwigger blew us up

549
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 3: by winning at the age of like fifty two, when

550
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:45,880
Speaker 3: nobody had won ever in the history of this award

551
00:26:46,240 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 3: had won between the ages of fifty and fifty three.

552
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:49,920
Speaker 3: So I think the age thing is getting kind of

553
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 3: blown out. But it's easy for Hollywood to fall in

554
00:26:52,440 --> 00:26:55,760
Speaker 3: love with the nineteen year old Jennifer Lawrence, and it's

555
00:26:55,800 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 3: easy for them to love like a hell and Mirron

556
00:26:57,640 --> 00:26:59,119
Speaker 3: up in the you know, up in the upper ages.

557
00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,240
Speaker 3: So you know, we don't have any of that going

558
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:04,400
Speaker 3: on here. Nicole Kimman's fifty four, Jessica Chastain is forty four,

559
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,679
Speaker 3: Christian Stewart's thirty one. It's not really anything. There's not

560
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 3: like you know, the young Starlett or the you know,

561
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 3: the older person that needs a Lifetime Achievement award like

562
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 3: we talked about so and you know, as far as

563
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 3: Christen Stewart goes, she was not even eighty percent chance

564
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,080
Speaker 3: to even be nominated for this award before, and she

565
00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:22,720
Speaker 3: was left out of the SAgs and BAFTAs, So don't

566
00:27:22,720 --> 00:27:26,199
Speaker 3: bet on her whatsoever. Now, you know, Jessica Chastain won

567
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: the Critics Choice Award, but you know, none of this

568
00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,480
Speaker 3: field won the BAFTA. I think you know gold Derby's

569
00:27:32,520 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 3: looking at Chessica Chastain, but if you look at every

570
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 3: expert's picks, Olivia Coleman is second. And that means if

571
00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 3: anybody doesn't like the Tammy Fay and doesn't like Jessica

572
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 3: Chastain story, and Olivia Coleman is his second place on

573
00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:49,280
Speaker 3: everybody's ballot, she's gonna get this. I completely agree with Ryan.

574
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 3: It may be because of all second place votes, but

575
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 3: I'm buying five to one on my Olivia Coleman.

576
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Olivia Coleman is kind of like the

577
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,560
Speaker 2: British Francis McDermott. It's like when you you know what

578
00:27:59,600 --> 00:28:01,919
Speaker 2: I mean, Like when she's in the running, it's like

579
00:28:02,560 --> 00:28:05,480
Speaker 2: they just pick her for some reason. So I think, Colin,

580
00:28:05,480 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 2: I think I talked to you about it. I was like,

581
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,560
Speaker 2: you know, Coleman looks like a value. Earlier, I watched

582
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 2: The Lost Daughter, and I watched all three of those

583
00:28:12,080 --> 00:28:16,240
Speaker 2: movies like The Spencer, The Lost Daughter, and Tammy Fay

584
00:28:16,880 --> 00:28:20,040
Speaker 2: back to back. And the minute I saw Tammy Fay,

585
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:23,840
Speaker 2: I got down on Chastain. It was at plus five fifty.

586
00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,400
Speaker 2: This is on February ninth. She went from plus five

587
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,920
Speaker 2: fifty to minus one seventy five. So I got I

588
00:28:28,960 --> 00:28:31,800
Speaker 2: gotta roll with chastainy Like I respect the Coleman. I

589
00:28:31,840 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: actually do have a little bit on Coleman from like

590
00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 2: when the odds literally first came out at the first day,

591
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 2: because I thought she was the best value.

592
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 3: But I'm riding with Chastain.

593
00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,320
Speaker 2: I thought she had the best performance, like you said, Colin,

594
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 2: like she really you know, went into that character, you know,

595
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: the Lost Daughter.

596
00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 3: I don't know, it just seemed like Olivia Coleman sitting

597
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 3: on like a under a beach umbrella.

598
00:28:50,720 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 2: Oh, you know, like regretting stuff like I don't, I

599
00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,200
Speaker 2: don't know man like that. It didn't move me. I

600
00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:58,840
Speaker 2: just didn't think it was that great of a film.

601
00:28:58,880 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 2: I think critics like probably like more than I did,

602
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:02,960
Speaker 2: so that that could be something. At the same time,

603
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 2: it's not really getting that much hype, didn't get too

604
00:29:04,760 --> 00:29:09,720
Speaker 2: many nominations. It's just like Chastayan was this movie, like

605
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 2: you know, it got I think it wanted to get

606
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 2: like a makeup nomination and then it got this. You know,

607
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,360
Speaker 2: it's like that she was this movie that we wouldn't

608
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: be talking about this movie if it wasn't for Chastain.

609
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,520
Speaker 2: All the nominations were all over the place, like you know,

610
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 2: the BAFTA. None of them went at the BAFTA. But

611
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,160
Speaker 2: like what Kidman won the Globe? I think it was

612
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 2: or who won the Globe? It was Kidmen, right, I

613
00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:32,400
Speaker 2: think it was Kidman. The nominations didn't line up, so

614
00:29:32,440 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 2: it wasn't like we have a good sample size of

615
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: like Chastain versus Kidman, versus Coleman versus you know, Stewart

616
00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 2: here and then and Cruise. So I'm just gonna go

617
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:43,760
Speaker 2: with the favorite. And if you look at gold Derby,

618
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,120
Speaker 2: Chastayn's getting eighty one percent of the votes at gold Derby,

619
00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:49,240
Speaker 2: which is a lot, and that would equate to about

620
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 2: minus four twenty five. In terms of the odds, she's

621
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: still at minus won seventy five. So I mean they're

622
00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 2: talking about more like a you know, the odds are

623
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,480
Speaker 2: giving you like a sixty percent, whereas gold Derby saying

624
00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:00,600
Speaker 2: it's over eight eighty percent.

625
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 3: So I'll go with those odds and roll with Chastain.

626
00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,680
Speaker 3: But I agree this could be wide open though, So Chris,

627
00:30:07,760 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: I think I think that we should inform the listeners

628
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:13,200
Speaker 3: like what is your stop price? Right? Even though gold

629
00:30:13,240 --> 00:30:15,360
Speaker 3: Derby says that this has value up to minus four

630
00:30:15,400 --> 00:30:17,440
Speaker 3: twenty five, what is your stop price? Because if this

631
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 3: starts taking steam at minus two fifty, you might look

632
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: to parlay with some of the other categories we've talked about,

633
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 3: like what would you buy Coleman at seven hundred? Would

634
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:26,720
Speaker 3: you buy her at nine hundred? And when would you

635
00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:29,280
Speaker 3: stop buying Tamba, you know, Jessica Chastain for Tampa Fay.

636
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 2: So I kind of use the gold Derby odds as

637
00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: kind of rough estimated implied odds. So I would buy

638
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,080
Speaker 2: Chastain up to about minus four hundred. I just I

639
00:30:39,320 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 2: you know, this is coming from again the numbers and

640
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:43,600
Speaker 2: the fact that I just I think she's the best choice.

641
00:30:43,880 --> 00:30:46,760
Speaker 2: I think then for I think Coleman, I think it's

642
00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:47,320
Speaker 2: just kind.

643
00:30:47,200 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 3: Of the rest of the vote.

644
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:50,480
Speaker 2: So you know, I think I would take her up

645
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 2: to probably you know, plus four fifty five hundred issh.

646
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 2: You know it kind of kind of the inverse of

647
00:30:58,680 --> 00:31:00,719
Speaker 2: what we're doing with with chest name.

648
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I agree, I agree completely. So I'm probably gonna

649
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 3: have Chestain in a couple of parlays, but that Coleman

650
00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 3: ticket is going to be in my back pocket, just

651
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:09,560
Speaker 3: just as a backup because I think she's gonna get

652
00:31:09,560 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 3: all second place votes. Despite Chris not liking the movie

653
00:31:13,360 --> 00:31:16,920
Speaker 3: because she sat under a beach over, I ain't.

654
00:31:17,360 --> 00:31:19,360
Speaker 2: The whole movie was just her sitting under a beach over.

655
00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:21,400
Speaker 2: She was like the gym of the office, except in

656
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:24,040
Speaker 2: like a regretful mother, you know point of view, Like

657
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,360
Speaker 2: it was just like she's taking oversimplified.

658
00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 3: You kind of making face.

659
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,800
Speaker 2: No, I listen, man, Like I said, Olivia Coleman's like

660
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 2: Francis McDorman, like ever they critics love her. I wouldn't

661
00:31:34,640 --> 00:31:36,360
Speaker 2: be surprised if she went. And I actually have a

662
00:31:36,760 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 2: Coleman ticket at like plus five hundred.

663
00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 3: I think I told Colin. I was like, Yo, there

664
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:41,280
Speaker 3: looks like some value on this.

665
00:31:41,360 --> 00:31:43,840
Speaker 2: So like I'm saying, she's the choice if you're not

666
00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 2: betting Chestain, and she's a choice, and you're not going

667
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:48,640
Speaker 2: to get the sexy adds with Chestain in the way

668
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 2: you got, you know when it first drop. But like

669
00:31:51,760 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 2: eighty one percent on gold Derby is a lot, you

670
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 2: know for somebody that's still getting minus one seventy five.

671
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:58,760
Speaker 3: So like that's what that's all we're looking for.

672
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:01,160
Speaker 2: Here is value, right and you know whether it's plus

673
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:03,720
Speaker 2: money or not, you know, plus money minus money. The

674
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:07,800
Speaker 2: point is value plus expective value is positive expected value, right, Like,

675
00:32:08,080 --> 00:32:09,280
Speaker 2: so I'm.

676
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:10,640
Speaker 3: Just saying Chastain has act.

677
00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,520
Speaker 2: Of all the categories that we're gonna talk about, Chastayne has

678
00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:16,000
Speaker 2: some of the largest positive expective value because it's it's

679
00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:17,080
Speaker 2: over twenty percent.

680
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, that's that's what I'm doing. But I agree.

681
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:26,280
Speaker 2: So for best Actress, Jessica Chestain the favorite, he willana

682
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:27,360
Speaker 2: long shot.

683
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:28,960
Speaker 3: Go with Olivia Coleman.

684
00:32:30,600 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 2: All right, let's go to Best Original Screenplay, and the

685
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 2: nominees Licorice Pizza is a small favorite at minus one fifty.

686
00:32:40,520 --> 00:32:43,240
Speaker 2: You have Belfast at one and a half to one,

687
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,240
Speaker 2: Don't look Up at four to one, the Worst Person

688
00:32:46,280 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 2: in the World at twenty to one, and King Richard

689
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 2: at twenty to one.

690
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 3: Colin, what do you think? Yeah, the Writers Guild winner

691
00:32:54,160 --> 00:32:57,280
Speaker 3: generally follows up with the Academy Award that went to

692
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 3: don't look up. Who's listener?

693
00:33:00,240 --> 00:33:04,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, listening for one that wins anything. I'm gonna be

694
00:33:04,520 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 2: so mad.

695
00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:08,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, they don't breach to me, Bro, but I know,

696
00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:10,959
Speaker 3: I know. And the Belfast and the Worst Person they

697
00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 3: weren't even nominated at the Writers Guild for Best Original Screenplay,

698
00:33:13,960 --> 00:33:16,440
Speaker 3: so that needs to be taken into account. But I'm

699
00:33:16,440 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 3: gonna have a four to one ticket and don't look

700
00:33:18,200 --> 00:33:21,440
Speaker 3: up because I'm gonna follow the Writers Guild winner winning

701
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,400
Speaker 3: Original Screenplay. So give me don't look up, and I

702
00:33:24,480 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 3: know that I know that's gonna you know, let me

703
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,360
Speaker 3: just get your juices going. Let me hear you come

704
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 3: against it.

705
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:32,640
Speaker 2: Ryan, I have I have some thoughts, but I'll let you.

706
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 2: I'll let you respond first.

707
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:38,239
Speaker 6: I mean, I feel like this is licorice pizzas to

708
00:33:38,320 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 6: lose because we have had uh, Paul Thomas Anderson has

709
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 6: had so many nominations and keeps getting over left. I'm

710
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 6: not saying that this is his best movie. I don't

711
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 6: think it is, but it was so enjoyable and I

712
00:33:56,040 --> 00:34:01,120
Speaker 6: feel like it's kind of that he's due situation. I

713
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 6: hear what you're saying about don't look up and the

714
00:34:03,640 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 6: writers go the word. But I everything else I've seen

715
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,800
Speaker 6: leads me to believe that this is Paul Thomas Anderson.

716
00:34:11,600 --> 00:34:14,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, listen, I think this is actually not a great

717
00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:16,080
Speaker 2: category to bed on despite the faction.

718
00:34:16,200 --> 00:34:16,879
Speaker 3: It's wide open.

719
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 2: And here's why again, Like I'm looking at all these things,

720
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: you know, obviously, the writers Guild and all the precursors.

721
00:34:22,960 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 2: But the reason I always come back to gold Derby

722
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 2: and even that more than like something like Oscar metrics

723
00:34:28,560 --> 00:34:31,640
Speaker 2: just you know, doing my own precursor work alone, is

724
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:34,720
Speaker 2: that they take into account all of this. Like these experts,

725
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,360
Speaker 2: they take into account all of these things, you know,

726
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 2: they take into account precursors and the metrics in this,

727
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 2: and I think there is always a little recency bias

728
00:34:41,719 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: and a little industry bias and things like that.

729
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 3: But you know, for.

730
00:34:44,520 --> 00:34:47,200
Speaker 2: The most part, they're taking all the other variables into account,

731
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 2: and they have liquorice pizza, so it is wide open.

732
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: Now that means it should be even money. But it's

733
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 2: minus one fifty, okay, so cross that off the board.

734
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:57,680
Speaker 2: No value there, even though.

735
00:34:57,600 --> 00:34:58,560
Speaker 3: It's the front runner.

736
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 2: Belfast is when they have number two, thirty eight percent

737
00:35:02,360 --> 00:35:05,720
Speaker 2: of gold Derby experts predict Belfast to win this award,

738
00:35:06,440 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 2: so it's odd should be around plus one sixty, but

739
00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,600
Speaker 2: at draftings they're plus one fifty, so there's no value

740
00:35:12,600 --> 00:35:15,200
Speaker 2: there either. So now to the top two are already

741
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:19,319
Speaker 2: off the board, so they have four percent each for

742
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,280
Speaker 2: the other three movies Don't look Up, the Worst Person

743
00:35:21,280 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: in the World and King Richard, so we should be

744
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 2: getting plus twenty four hundred or twenty four to one.

745
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,919
Speaker 2: Put another way, well, Don't Look Up is four to one.

746
00:35:30,000 --> 00:35:31,960
Speaker 2: The Worst Person in the World and King Richard are

747
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: twenty to one. There's literally no value this entire category,

748
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,600
Speaker 2: So I'm passing. If you're just asking me who's gonna win,

749
00:35:40,640 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 2: I'd say Wicker's Pizza, but I think it's a horrible value.

750
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,960
Speaker 2: So I'm kind of with you, Ryan, but like I

751
00:35:47,000 --> 00:35:49,560
Speaker 2: can't like for for it to be you know, four

752
00:35:49,600 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 2: percent on gold Derby and you know, which would imply

753
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:54,680
Speaker 2: a twenty four to one as a fair price to

754
00:35:54,760 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 2: bet that at four to one. Colin, like that, just

755
00:35:57,760 --> 00:35:59,640
Speaker 2: that's a lot, Like there's a there's a little large

756
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 2: direct ailiation I have to do, Like I don't think

757
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:03,319
Speaker 2: I can get there. It's one of those where I

758
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 2: know what you're saying, like it makes sense, but that's

759
00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,239
Speaker 2: still just one variable, Like it's at the end of

760
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:09,279
Speaker 2: the day, like writers, God is still one valuable. So

761
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:12,560
Speaker 2: it's a pass for me. Colin's going don't look up

762
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:16,319
Speaker 2: at four to one, and Ryan's going Wickers Pizza at

763
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 2: minus one fifty. All right, let's get into adapt to screenplay.

764
00:36:20,040 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: The nominees are A Child of Death Adults at minus

765
00:36:23,000 --> 00:36:24,000
Speaker 2: one seventy.

766
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,160
Speaker 3: Five, The Power of the Dog at plus.

767
00:36:26,840 --> 00:36:30,359
Speaker 2: One thirty five, The Lost Daughter at eight to one,

768
00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:35,360
Speaker 2: Drive My Car at sixteen to one, and Dune which

769
00:36:36,280 --> 00:36:39,320
Speaker 2: twenty to one. I mean somebody said it was confusing earlier,

770
00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: Like yes, absolutely, like technical technical stalwart. It's done, Kirk,

771
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,920
Speaker 2: It's the Dunkirk of this year's awards, Like, I had no.

772
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:47,840
Speaker 3: Idea what was happening.

773
00:36:48,000 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: Everything was upside down and twisting around, and there was

774
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,240
Speaker 2: only superpowers and shit exploding.

775
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 3: I had no idea what was going on.

776
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 2: But I guess it's a technical masterpiece.

777
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:55,959
Speaker 3: I guess.

778
00:36:56,000 --> 00:37:00,359
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, Colin, I think this is another

779
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:04,160
Speaker 2: one where we have to start debating coda versus power.

780
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 3: Of the dove. Yeah, I mean, technical masterpiece. That's something

781
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:10,320
Speaker 3: to say. The year after nineteen seventeen was was filmed

782
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,960
Speaker 3: like You Really Like You from nineteen seventeen. You reached

783
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 3: this movie.

784
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,319
Speaker 2: About eight times, like two oscars removed from.

785
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 3: Technically the greatest movie ever because it never stopped filming,

786
00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 3: like it was one take. The whole movie was wedding take.

787
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 3: So but yeah, no, I mean for here, there's no

788
00:37:25,200 --> 00:37:28,520
Speaker 3: hardcore trends to lean onto this category other than nonfiction

789
00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:33,520
Speaker 3: films are increasingly becoming more popular in this category and

790
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:36,240
Speaker 3: they're winning. And I love Jojo Rabbit more than anything.

791
00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 3: I love Black Clansmen. Moonlight, you know, I actually love

792
00:37:40,000 --> 00:37:43,160
Speaker 3: that movie. And I have, you know, no direct personal

793
00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:44,880
Speaker 3: ties to what happened the Moonline. I still love the

794
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,239
Speaker 3: story you know. So what you have to do is,

795
00:37:47,280 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 3: I think you have to find a nonfiction that touches

796
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 3: on current social issues, and that's the direction that you

797
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,120
Speaker 3: got to go with your bet. I would put down

798
00:37:55,160 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 3: on Lost Daughter at eight to one. I'm not exactly

799
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,640
Speaker 3: sure the odds on CODA minus one seventy five are

800
00:38:02,640 --> 00:38:05,359
Speaker 3: worth it. I mean, there's just there's other things in

801
00:38:05,400 --> 00:38:08,640
Speaker 3: here that you know, can Power of the Dog We've

802
00:38:08,640 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 3: already said is a better movie than Coda. So why

803
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 3: would I put down on CODA minus one seventy five

804
00:38:13,840 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 3: when I can take them to win Best Film at

805
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,439
Speaker 3: plus one ten? Right, So if you're looking at why

806
00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:20,920
Speaker 3: in the world, you got to tell me the difference

807
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 3: of you know, why these odds are flipped for Coda

808
00:38:23,920 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 3: and Power of the Dog here. So as a long shot,

809
00:38:26,680 --> 00:38:29,719
Speaker 3: I would take the Lost Daughter. But you know, I'm

810
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:31,479
Speaker 3: trying to like, if I'm looking at CODA and Power

811
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 3: the Dog and Best Film, I'd probably hedge it with

812
00:38:34,400 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 3: the other side in this category.

813
00:38:36,600 --> 00:38:37,840
Speaker 5: I agree with what you're saying.

814
00:38:37,880 --> 00:38:41,720
Speaker 6: I don't feel like there is good value on either

815
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 6: CODA or Power of the Dog.

816
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,480
Speaker 5: But I love Lost Daughter at eight to one.

817
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 6: I'm going to put money down on that because you

818
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 6: overlook the fact that it's Maggie Jillenhall who wrote it,

819
00:38:53,719 --> 00:38:57,080
Speaker 6: and that is a name that everybody in the academy

820
00:38:57,280 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 6: knows and is gonna wint a root for.

821
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 5: And at eight to one, why not?

822
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:07,719
Speaker 6: I agree people are going to be fighting over a

823
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 6: lot of those votes, are going to cancel that with

824
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 6: Code and Power the Dog might slip Lost Daughter in

825
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:13,399
Speaker 6: there at eight to one.

826
00:39:13,680 --> 00:39:16,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I hate that.

827
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 3: This is that it's so true.

828
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:20,240
Speaker 2: It's like so I have written down in my notes.

829
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:22,879
Speaker 2: Loss Daughter is getting about twelve percent of the gold

830
00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:25,720
Speaker 2: Derby vote, eleven and a half percent to be exact.

831
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 2: That makes the odds about plus seven seventy would be

832
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 2: about fair odds or seven point seven to one. They're

833
00:39:32,320 --> 00:39:34,720
Speaker 2: at plus eight hundred, so that is a slight value.

834
00:39:34,760 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 2: You can't say the same for CODA. They're getting sixty

835
00:39:37,360 --> 00:39:39,520
Speaker 2: two percent of the votes at gold Derby, but that

836
00:39:39,520 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 2: would equate to minus one sixty odds. The odds are already

837
00:39:41,840 --> 00:39:43,439
Speaker 2: higher than that. They're at minus one seventy five.

838
00:39:43,480 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 3: No value there.

839
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:47,960
Speaker 2: Power the Dog twenty seven percent, so that should be

840
00:39:48,000 --> 00:39:51,040
Speaker 2: around plus two seventy and they're at plus one thirty five,

841
00:39:51,080 --> 00:39:52,320
Speaker 2: so it's terrible value.

842
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 3: So really the best value play is The Lost Daughter.

843
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,239
Speaker 2: But I do want to say something, as we've kind

844
00:39:58,239 --> 00:40:01,120
Speaker 2: of talked through these now we're getting, we've talked to

845
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,560
Speaker 2: a few categories where it's like Power the Dog versus Coda.

846
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 2: Power of the Dog was the front runner throughout most

847
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 2: of the Oscar season. It won Best Picture, it won Director,

848
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 2: and it won some screenplay awards that a lot of major,

849
00:40:15,320 --> 00:40:20,919
Speaker 2: you know, ceremonies. I think that's probably the play here.

850
00:40:21,120 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 2: Just like on a larger scale, it's like if you're

851
00:40:24,320 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 2: just betting on a movie, it's like that's kind of

852
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:28,839
Speaker 2: the gift that we're getting here is Power the Dog.

853
00:40:29,080 --> 00:40:30,719
Speaker 3: Like Power of the Dog is the best.

854
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,919
Speaker 2: Movie and it's supposed to win everything, and it has

855
00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 2: one the most stuff, so it's like it's not good value,

856
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 2: but I just kind of feel like it's it's it's

857
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:42,920
Speaker 2: best picture, odds will probably be underrated, and it's probably

858
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 2: also the most likely to win screenplay. I feel like

859
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,320
Speaker 2: this this Coda is just kind of this like recency

860
00:40:48,360 --> 00:40:51,799
Speaker 2: bias from this one producer's guild happening to be one

861
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 2: of the last major guilds right before the oscars, you know,

862
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:58,799
Speaker 2: and so like looking more at everything as we kind

863
00:40:58,800 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 2: of talk through this, like we're trying to like convince

864
00:41:01,200 --> 00:41:03,359
Speaker 2: ourselves like Coda could win or why the Lost Daughter

865
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 2: could win, But in reality, Pile of the Dog is

866
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,840
Speaker 2: like beat the pants off both of these movies pretty

867
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 2: much everywhere until the producers go so like like personally,

868
00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:14,400
Speaker 2: like I will say that Lost Daughter is on paper

869
00:41:14,600 --> 00:41:17,440
Speaker 2: has a slight the best value by the numbers, but

870
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:18,799
Speaker 2: I think what I'm going to be doing is just

871
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:22,480
Speaker 2: buying low on Powered the Dog, who we never should

872
00:41:22,480 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: have been getting at this at these numbers anyway, right,

873
00:41:25,120 --> 00:41:27,400
Speaker 2: Like Power the Dogs should have been like the prohibited

874
00:41:27,440 --> 00:41:30,759
Speaker 2: favorite on most of these categories, but because you know,

875
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 2: childed of adults kind of had a late push. Now

876
00:41:33,160 --> 00:41:35,359
Speaker 2: we're getting value and people are kind of worried about it.

877
00:41:35,400 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 2: So that I think that's kind of going to be

878
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:39,600
Speaker 2: my strategy personally.

879
00:41:40,680 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I one hund percent agree. I think this is

880
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 3: another category where you know, the Power of the Dog

881
00:41:45,640 --> 00:41:47,359
Speaker 3: is just a better movie than Coda. And it goes

882
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,000
Speaker 3: back to and we're about to talk about it, you know,

883
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:53,760
Speaker 3: best actor, best you know, best actress. It's just supporting editing. Yeah. Yeah,

884
00:41:53,800 --> 00:41:56,120
Speaker 3: so we're gonna get into supporting actor. And I think

885
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: it's a good role in because this is where we

886
00:41:57,600 --> 00:41:59,480
Speaker 3: can hammer on coda. But yeah, power the Dog. I

887
00:41:59,520 --> 00:42:02,080
Speaker 3: agree with you. It's just amazing. These odds have come

888
00:42:02,120 --> 00:42:04,879
Speaker 3: on so hard on coda. I would tell everybody we're

889
00:42:04,880 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 3: recording this, uh boy, March madness. March madness is killing me.

890
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,640
Speaker 3: All right, it's Tuesday. We're recording this on Tuesday. The

891
00:42:11,680 --> 00:42:14,080
Speaker 3: awards ceremonies on Sunday, So you know, if the odds

892
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:17,160
Speaker 3: flip again, and and Ryan said earlier, it's like, you know,

893
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,080
Speaker 3: there's been a lot of money coming in and push

894
00:42:19,120 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 3: things a lot of the ways. Usually we say at

895
00:42:21,320 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 3: the Academy Awards, we don't know who's gonna win. These

896
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,920
Speaker 3: like these are usually pretty air tight and nothing leaks.

897
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:29,279
Speaker 3: Let's go back to our favorite director play a couple

898
00:42:29,280 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 3: of years ago, right, yougo.

899
00:42:30,360 --> 00:42:33,000
Speaker 2: So yourgo so that the steam on yourgos from some

900
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:36,480
Speaker 2: college kid who I put like thousands of dollars and

901
00:42:36,560 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: move the market only for him to not win. So yeah,

902
00:42:38,719 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 2: right right, you know, so be careful steam come in.

903
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:45,760
Speaker 2: You know there might be a delta where there's public

904
00:42:45,760 --> 00:42:47,080
Speaker 2: perception and you can kind of beat that.

905
00:42:47,320 --> 00:42:49,160
Speaker 3: I would agree with that. Here I am gonna play

906
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,080
Speaker 3: Lost Daughter, but I wouldn't be surprised the Power of

907
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:53,400
Speaker 3: the Dog steam if we get there on Sunday. Yeah,

908
00:42:53,719 --> 00:42:55,440
Speaker 3: that's just like across all categories.

909
00:42:55,440 --> 00:42:57,600
Speaker 2: Like, I know we're talking about adaptive screenplay, but I

910
00:42:57,640 --> 00:43:00,960
Speaker 2: just met like picture directly director, you can't really better.

911
00:43:01,080 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 2: But like these these awards where those two movies are

912
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:05,799
Speaker 2: kind of going head to head, I just think at

913
00:43:05,800 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 2: this point CODA is a little overrated compared to its

914
00:43:09,360 --> 00:43:12,479
Speaker 2: it's it's true chances of winning. But let's uh so yeah,

915
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 2: so we're looking at Lost Daughter as kind of the

916
00:43:15,400 --> 00:43:19,239
Speaker 2: best value, but thinking about some Power of the Dog

917
00:43:19,280 --> 00:43:21,440
Speaker 2: here as well. And then Ryan, did you so did

918
00:43:21,480 --> 00:43:23,439
Speaker 2: you like? So you like Lost Daughter the most?

919
00:43:23,480 --> 00:43:24,959
Speaker 3: Right? That was that's your point too.

920
00:43:24,920 --> 00:43:26,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, for the value, I like it the most.

921
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 6: Yeah, so we like, I might put a couple of

922
00:43:29,080 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 6: dollars on Power of the Doctor, because you're right, this

923
00:43:31,000 --> 00:43:33,919
Speaker 6: is pretty good value when it is the best movie.

924
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 6: So yeah, I bet most of my money's going on

925
00:43:38,000 --> 00:43:39,080
Speaker 6: Last Hot Okay.

926
00:43:39,120 --> 00:43:43,239
Speaker 2: So yeah, so for best Adaptive Screenplay, Lost Daughter and

927
00:43:43,360 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 2: a little bit of Power of the Dog. That's the

928
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,400
Speaker 2: one we kind of think may may actually win. But

929
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 2: I think Lost Daughter has that just better odds given

930
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:55,200
Speaker 2: it's it's chance. All right, let's go to best supporting actor,

931
00:43:55,840 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: and we have Troy Kotzer of Coda at minus four hundred,

932
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:03,520
Speaker 2: Cody smit McFee the Power of the Dog at.

933
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:04,160
Speaker 3: Plus two forty.

934
00:44:04,200 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 2: So again we have these two movies square it off.

935
00:44:06,880 --> 00:44:09,919
Speaker 2: We have Sieren Hines of Belfast at sixteen to one,

936
00:44:10,280 --> 00:44:12,960
Speaker 2: Jesse Plemmins Power of the Dog twenty five to one,

937
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 2: and JK. Simmons being to Ricardo's at thirty five to one.

938
00:44:19,400 --> 00:44:19,720
Speaker 5: Ryan.

939
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:20,759
Speaker 3: Here we go again.

940
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 2: It's Coda versus Power of the Dog, Concer versus Smith McFee,

941
00:44:24,880 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 2: who is kind.

942
00:44:25,680 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 3: Of the favorite.

943
00:44:26,239 --> 00:44:28,719
Speaker 2: Smith McFee was kind of the favorite throughout most of

944
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 2: the season, and it flipped in a massive way. So

945
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:33,680
Speaker 2: I'm curious to hear your thoughts on this one.

946
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 6: I agree that McPhee's was great in it, but Kutzer

947
00:44:39,000 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 6: has just been tearing up the scene. I feel like

948
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 6: he's the emotional favorite. He's the older actor. As one

949
00:44:46,200 --> 00:44:48,920
Speaker 6: of you written the notes, like the older actor usually

950
00:44:48,960 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 6: wins this not necessarily in recent years.

951
00:44:52,000 --> 00:44:54,360
Speaker 5: But if you go historically, and.

952
00:44:55,920 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 6: I thought he was great, and I think that this

953
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,520
Speaker 6: is the only based I'm putting my money. I don't

954
00:45:01,520 --> 00:45:06,440
Speaker 6: see McPhee winning this as many major awards as Kosher

955
00:45:06,480 --> 00:45:07,160
Speaker 6: has been getting.

956
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, let me tag onto that because I think there's

957
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:13,120
Speaker 3: some a really important note to make here. And yes,

958
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 3: the older actors usually win this, but last year Daniel Calulia,

959
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:17,920
Speaker 3: I mean Judas in the Black and Side, there just

960
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 3: was no competition and that's why his odds were minus

961
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 3: closed minus twenty five hundred and it wasn't even a question.

962
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,279
Speaker 3: And so let's go back to the drawing board. Here

963
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,560
Speaker 3: the older actor usually wins, now the Cody Smith McPhee.

964
00:45:29,640 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 3: I went back and watched Power of the Dog. I'm

965
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 3: not going to give away his character. Maybe you haven't

966
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:35,319
Speaker 3: seen it, you'll watch it leading up, and I'm not

967
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 3: going to give away what he starts as, what he

968
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 3: ends as, and how his transformation occurs during the movie.

969
00:45:42,080 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 3: But what I did take note of the second time

970
00:45:44,040 --> 00:45:45,960
Speaker 3: that I watched through it was how many of his

971
00:45:46,000 --> 00:45:49,799
Speaker 3: scenes are powerful that included Benedict cumber match, how many

972
00:45:49,800 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 3: of them did he carry on his own shoulders. He

973
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:55,640
Speaker 3: didn't carry a lot of scenes on his own shoulders.

974
00:45:55,719 --> 00:45:58,560
Speaker 3: He was in scenes with Benedict cumber Match. He is

975
00:45:58,640 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 3: not the MVP of this movie. He was simply in

976
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 3: the room when big things happened, and he was not

977
00:46:05,400 --> 00:46:08,040
Speaker 3: the driver. All Right, this whole power of the Dog,

978
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,719
Speaker 3: it was driven by Benedict Cumberbatch. He's the reason why

979
00:46:10,760 --> 00:46:13,800
Speaker 3: this story is so powerful. So once I watch Coda,

980
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:17,280
Speaker 3: it reminds me, I mean, the second I watched the movie.

981
00:46:17,480 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 3: And I'm not gonna blow the movie for anybody, but

982
00:46:21,400 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 3: I will say this. Everybody knows Goodwill Hunting. Everybody knows

983
00:46:24,480 --> 00:46:26,960
Speaker 3: that Robin Williams won Best Supporting Actor. Why did he

984
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,560
Speaker 3: win Best Supporting Actor? Because there was a pretty good

985
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:31,799
Speaker 3: field with him that year. But there's a scene at

986
00:46:31,800 --> 00:46:33,759
Speaker 3: the very end, and I'm definitely not spoiling anything for

987
00:46:33,800 --> 00:46:36,360
Speaker 3: a movie that's at least twenty five years old, but

988
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,759
Speaker 3: he gets in Matt Damon's face and he says, it's

989
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:42,240
Speaker 3: not your fault, and he's referring to the child abuse

990
00:46:42,280 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 3: that he went through with what is an orphan with

991
00:46:44,520 --> 00:46:46,840
Speaker 3: his foster parents, and he just kept saying, it's not

992
00:46:46,920 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 3: your fault, it's not your fault, and he just broke

993
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:53,600
Speaker 3: him down and boom. That is an Academy Award winning performance.

994
00:46:53,640 --> 00:46:56,200
Speaker 3: You only needed that one scene to win that award.

995
00:46:56,840 --> 00:47:00,840
Speaker 3: That happens in coda when you know, when Troy Kotzur

996
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,560
Speaker 3: is in the movie, he goes to his daughter's farm

997
00:47:05,000 --> 00:47:08,280
Speaker 3: that yeah, the school is putting on a whole choir event,

998
00:47:08,680 --> 00:47:10,799
Speaker 3: and he goes to that and him and his wife

999
00:47:10,840 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 3: are just kind of, you know, just kind of fucking around.

1000
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:14,520
Speaker 3: They're like, are we having spaghetti tonight? What's going like?

1001
00:47:14,560 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 3: They can't hear the concert, they can't hear their daughters singing.

1002
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:21,080
Speaker 3: But in the middle of this movie, where sound is

1003
00:47:21,120 --> 00:47:24,280
Speaker 3: so important, everything shuts off, and all of a sudden,

1004
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:27,600
Speaker 3: you are in his eyes, you are in his body,

1005
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 3: you are in his ears, and he's looking around the

1006
00:47:30,040 --> 00:47:33,800
Speaker 3: room and he sees grandmother's crying, he sees grandfather's clapping,

1007
00:47:34,000 --> 00:47:36,960
Speaker 3: he sees kids smiling, he sees people dancing, and he

1008
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 3: sees his daughter on the stage. And to me, it

1009
00:47:39,080 --> 00:47:40,920
Speaker 3: was one of the most powerful things I've seen in

1010
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 3: any of the movies I've seen this year. I see

1011
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,839
Speaker 3: why Code has taken so much steam. When you can

1012
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 3: take the entire movie and throw it into one of

1013
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 3: your character's eyes and he can play that off. And

1014
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 3: at that point right there, he was bound and determined

1015
00:47:52,160 --> 00:47:54,719
Speaker 3: his daughter has to go down this path. Right I

1016
00:47:54,719 --> 00:47:56,719
Speaker 3: thought it was a monster scene. Now, whether you want

1017
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 3: to give credit to the director or you want to

1018
00:47:58,760 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 3: give credit to sound, you couldn't have pulled it off

1019
00:48:01,440 --> 00:48:03,600
Speaker 3: unless you had this guy that's been on a boat

1020
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:06,440
Speaker 3: his entire life, struggling to keep his family together, and

1021
00:48:06,480 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 3: you see the world through his eyes and you got

1022
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 3: to right there, it's an Academy Award winning moment. Minus

1023
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:13,200
Speaker 3: four hundred. I'll pay it easily. I don't care if

1024
00:48:13,200 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 3: it's overtaxed. I don't care. That's the play.

1025
00:48:16,840 --> 00:48:19,200
Speaker 2: And I think that's a great point that you brought up,

1026
00:48:19,200 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 2: you know, is it the directing?

1027
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 3: Is it? This is why.

1028
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,319
Speaker 2: I go away from the movie in terms of Best

1029
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 2: Picture or screenplay because it wasn't nominated for directing. But

1030
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 2: it was a powerful movie, and a lot of that

1031
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:37,440
Speaker 2: power I think comes in Coatser's performance of it, Like

1032
00:48:37,520 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 2: he really brings you inside what it feels like to

1033
00:48:40,640 --> 00:48:43,960
Speaker 2: be a deaf adult, you know, And that's that's where

1034
00:48:43,960 --> 00:48:46,080
Speaker 2: I think the strength of the movie lies. Like they've

1035
00:48:46,080 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 2: written all, A lot of other characters are written as

1036
00:48:48,719 --> 00:48:52,040
Speaker 2: deaf in that movie, but they don't really. It's not

1037
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:55,200
Speaker 2: the same as Koltser. And that's why I think, you know,

1038
00:48:55,360 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 2: for screenplay, I think it's overrated.

1039
00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: For picture, I think it's overrated.

1040
00:48:58,719 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 2: But I do I think unfortunately, you know, it's minus

1041
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:03,920
Speaker 2: four hundred. It's not really a sexy payout here. But

1042
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 2: here's something interesting that I noticed. And again you guys

1043
00:49:07,520 --> 00:49:10,400
Speaker 2: have been hearing me quote the gold Derby percentages for

1044
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:15,520
Speaker 2: each category one hundred percent, the only one one hundred percent.

1045
00:49:15,600 --> 00:49:18,799
Speaker 2: Everyone on gold Derby all the every single expert has

1046
00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:22,160
Speaker 2: picked Coatser. And that's that's pretty impressive given that, like

1047
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,560
Speaker 2: sometimes you get like a straggler on like Smith McFee

1048
00:49:25,560 --> 00:49:27,120
Speaker 2: just because he was like the early favorite. I think

1049
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 2: he won the Globe, and no, everyone has switched to Katzer,

1050
00:49:30,480 --> 00:49:33,440
Speaker 2: So you know, one hundred. I mean, this is one

1051
00:49:33,480 --> 00:49:35,640
Speaker 2: of those things that could be you could you know,

1052
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: minus twenty five hundred, minus thirty five hundred, whatever, you know,

1053
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 2: those crazy odds that you don't even touch. But it's

1054
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,880
Speaker 2: only minus four hundred. So yeah, I'm with you, guys.

1055
00:49:45,239 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: I think coats are I think this is his to lose.

1056
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,120
Speaker 3: One hundred percent agree, And I'm gonna parlay this with

1057
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:53,960
Speaker 3: my Razorbacks going to the Final four and Sunday right.

1058
00:49:54,560 --> 00:49:57,479
Speaker 2: So yeah for Best Supporting Actor Troy Kotzer all the way.

1059
00:49:57,840 --> 00:50:00,680
Speaker 2: Let's get into the final category we will cover in

1060
00:50:00,719 --> 00:50:05,360
Speaker 2: this episode, and that is Best Supporting Actress. The nominees

1061
00:50:05,480 --> 00:50:10,279
Speaker 2: Arianna Debo's West Side Story at minus sixteen hundred, big favorite.

1062
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:13,239
Speaker 2: Then you have Kirsten Dunst The Power of the Dog

1063
00:50:13,360 --> 00:50:17,239
Speaker 2: at six to one, Aujanay Ellis from King Richard at

1064
00:50:17,280 --> 00:50:20,759
Speaker 2: eighteen to one, Judy Dench Belfast twenty five to one,

1065
00:50:20,800 --> 00:50:26,200
Speaker 2: and Jesse Buckley The Lost Daughter at thirty five to one.

1066
00:50:27,160 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 3: Ryan, what are we thinking here?

1067
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:32,560
Speaker 5: Well, obviously.

1068
00:50:33,480 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 6: It looks like DeVos is the prohibitive favorite. But I

1069
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,760
Speaker 6: talked to my buddy of mine, who works at Yahoo

1070
00:50:40,800 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 6: Movies and talks to a lot of insiders regularly, and

1071
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:46,319
Speaker 6: the only kind of left field one he threw me

1072
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:53,560
Speaker 6: was angeenue Ellis at that price because of the kind

1073
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 6: of the shine that's coming off of Will Smith in

1074
00:50:56,000 --> 00:51:00,600
Speaker 6: that movie goes right on her. She is a a

1075
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,839
Speaker 6: well known working actress for a lot of years, and

1076
00:51:03,880 --> 00:51:06,400
Speaker 6: that's kind of who we've seen sometimes come out of

1077
00:51:06,400 --> 00:51:08,400
Speaker 6: the blue and win this supporting actress. A lot of

1078
00:51:08,440 --> 00:51:10,440
Speaker 6: times maybe they just duck by it down and we

1079
00:51:10,440 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 6: don't see much of them again.

1080
00:51:12,600 --> 00:51:13,920
Speaker 5: I hope that doesn't happen.

1081
00:51:13,680 --> 00:51:16,320
Speaker 6: With her, but at that price, I like it. I

1082
00:51:16,360 --> 00:51:19,880
Speaker 6: wouldn't put any money on Ariana, but I think that

1083
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:22,560
Speaker 6: she is still going to win it. But I think

1084
00:51:22,600 --> 00:51:23,880
Speaker 6: it's good value on Angeny.

1085
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean the rules for this for best Supporting

1086
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:32,360
Speaker 3: Actress usually state the higher the billing and the credits

1087
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,879
Speaker 3: is the person that wins Grandma and Minery. Last year

1088
00:51:35,920 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 3: I think was fifth. I'm not even sure if her

1089
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:39,759
Speaker 3: name was not really that high up, she still took

1090
00:51:39,760 --> 00:51:42,840
Speaker 3: it down because the role was so perfect. And you know,

1091
00:51:42,840 --> 00:51:44,799
Speaker 3: it's hard for me to see West Side Story not

1092
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 3: taking at least one one oscar home for something. Is

1093
00:51:49,120 --> 00:51:51,800
Speaker 3: this it? The odds will tell you yes, minus sixteen hundred.

1094
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 3: But angenay ellis, you know, second highest billing in the movie,

1095
00:51:54,960 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 3: so you know you can't get much higher that because

1096
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,080
Speaker 3: Will Smith is in the movie, and if you watch

1097
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:00,920
Speaker 3: King Richard, it's you know, he is so set in

1098
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 3: his ways. It's the wife that has to keep that

1099
00:52:02,880 --> 00:52:05,120
Speaker 3: glue together in that house. The reason why the Williams

1100
00:52:05,160 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 3: sisters are so you know, in touch with their schooling

1101
00:52:08,160 --> 00:52:10,160
Speaker 3: and with their athletics and the schedule that they have

1102
00:52:10,239 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 3: it all mapped out, because they're a team, even though

1103
00:52:12,560 --> 00:52:17,360
Speaker 3: Richard Williams sometimes you know, is you know, like I said, grumpy,

1104
00:52:17,400 --> 00:52:20,319
Speaker 3: a little crispy sometimes. So she plays she does a

1105
00:52:20,400 --> 00:52:23,080
Speaker 3: very good job in the movie of playing the motherly role,

1106
00:52:23,520 --> 00:52:25,560
Speaker 3: and so I could see how eighteen to one. I mean,

1107
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:27,399
Speaker 3: that's definitely got to be worth a twenty five dollars

1108
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:31,320
Speaker 3: flyer out there. I am not impressed whatsoever with Kirsten

1109
00:52:31,360 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 3: Dunt's performance and power of the dog. I just I

1110
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:37,720
Speaker 3: don't know. She shows up at the ranch, she's drinking

1111
00:52:37,760 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 3: liquor on the side of the house. She's got to

1112
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,479
Speaker 3: protect her. So I thought, you know, I thought Jesse

1113
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:45,239
Speaker 3: Plemmons did a better job, and he was barely in

1114
00:52:45,239 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 3: the movie more than her. The movie's just so overshadowed

1115
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:50,799
Speaker 3: by Benedict Cumberbatchett. I just don't think Kristen Dunst did

1116
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:53,719
Speaker 3: enough to get anything here. So I think Ellis is

1117
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 3: worth a little bit of a play. But Judy Dinch

1118
00:52:56,719 --> 00:52:59,319
Speaker 3: is in this field, nobody's talking about her. Does Judy

1119
00:52:59,400 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 3: Dinch get from people just for having the name on

1120
00:53:02,000 --> 00:53:04,759
Speaker 3: the I mean, I mean literally like this is this

1121
00:53:04,800 --> 00:53:07,480
Speaker 3: is Judy Dinch? I mean, is she gonna get votes

1122
00:53:07,719 --> 00:53:09,480
Speaker 3: for Belfast? I mean there's got to be some people

1123
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:12,160
Speaker 3: out there that love Belfast. Belfast was the leader in

1124
00:53:12,200 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 3: a lot of categories just two or three months ago. Chris,

1125
00:53:15,000 --> 00:53:20,080
Speaker 3: you all saw it, Yeah, saw it here. I'm with

1126
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 3: you guys on LS. I'll throw I'll throw a little

1127
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:25,200
Speaker 3: twenty five dollars bet on her. But just keep that

1128
00:53:25,239 --> 00:53:25,759
Speaker 3: in mind though.

1129
00:53:25,880 --> 00:53:28,839
Speaker 2: You know, earlier we talked about, you know, who kind

1130
00:53:28,880 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 2: of steals the scenes, who can carry scenes without the

1131
00:53:31,480 --> 00:53:36,360
Speaker 2: other main actors, lead actors and actresses in a movie.

1132
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,759
Speaker 2: I think Ariana did that. You just can't bet on

1133
00:53:39,760 --> 00:53:42,160
Speaker 2: her at sixteen to one. I mean, even parlaying it

1134
00:53:42,239 --> 00:53:44,439
Speaker 2: gets kind of dicey. But she was the best actor

1135
00:53:44,480 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 2: in that movie, you know that, plain and simple, and

1136
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:49,200
Speaker 2: her role was very you know, she had a great role.

1137
00:53:49,239 --> 00:53:51,080
Speaker 2: Like that role in West Side Story is not just

1138
00:53:51,120 --> 00:53:54,680
Speaker 2: any supporting role, like that's a very important role within

1139
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:55,720
Speaker 2: movie history.

1140
00:53:56,080 --> 00:53:58,600
Speaker 3: And you know, so I think it's enough for her.

1141
00:53:59,120 --> 00:54:01,800
Speaker 2: I see what you're saying about anjenae Ellis, I think,

1142
00:54:02,160 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 2: but I come back to like, how many scenes did

1143
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 2: you really carry, you know, without without will right in

1144
00:54:08,200 --> 00:54:11,080
Speaker 2: that movie? And so that that's that's my and then

1145
00:54:11,120 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 2: I agree, like I think Dunst would have been I

1146
00:54:14,000 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 2: would have considered her more if Power the Dog was

1147
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,279
Speaker 2: like this overwhelming like Freight Train that was like the

1148
00:54:19,360 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 2: leader in every other category. It's like, maybe it's just

1149
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:23,200
Speaker 2: gonna be one of those movies that wins like almost

1150
00:54:23,200 --> 00:54:24,600
Speaker 2: everything and just sweeps.

1151
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 3: Everything, and you know, people just loved it.

1152
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:28,440
Speaker 2: But it seems like people are kind of still split

1153
00:54:28,480 --> 00:54:30,520
Speaker 2: on it, and so I don't think Dunst gets a

1154
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:32,520
Speaker 2: win off off that. And I agree, I think she

1155
00:54:32,680 --> 00:54:36,680
Speaker 2: was no higher than third best on this list. So yeah,

1156
00:54:36,760 --> 00:54:40,000
Speaker 2: Arianna for me, but probably just to stay away. So

1157
00:54:40,280 --> 00:54:44,880
Speaker 2: to recap, supporting actress anjenay Ellis is the.

1158
00:54:44,880 --> 00:54:45,720
Speaker 3: Long shot play.

1159
00:54:45,800 --> 00:54:49,400
Speaker 2: Ariana is the most likely winner, but just not really

1160
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:50,880
Speaker 2: great odds to be betting that.

1161
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:52,920
Speaker 3: So that is going to do it.

1162
00:54:53,000 --> 00:54:58,320
Speaker 2: For our twenty twenty two Academy Awards preview here at

1163
00:54:58,520 --> 00:55:02,000
Speaker 2: the Action Network. Should check out Action network dot com

1164
00:55:02,000 --> 00:55:04,080
Speaker 2: for all of our Academy work content. I'll have a

1165
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:06,840
Speaker 2: big article out and of course we will do another

1166
00:55:06,880 --> 00:55:10,120
Speaker 2: episode which would drop later in the week with our

1167
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 2: best bets. You can find Ryan on Twitter at the

1168
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:19,359
Speaker 2: Ryan McKee and Colin on Twitter at Underscore Colin One.

1169
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:23,359
Speaker 2: That's two l's and the number one Until next time.

1170
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:27,480
Speaker 2: Let's get this sh money, all right, You've really made

1171
00:55:27,480 --> 00:55:29,239
Speaker 2: this a night to remember it every way.

1172
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:31,720
Speaker 3: Now let's go party till dawn.