Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is finally time
Speaker 1: after months of waiting, Week one of the NFL is here.
Speaker 1: So today, as we're going to be doing every Thursday
Speaker 1: when we record, we're going to talk about some of
Speaker 1: our best bets, either against the spread or over unders.
Speaker 1: We'll give you a bet to avoid, and then we're
Speaker 1: gonna give you our favorite player prop bet for the week.
Speaker 1: And with me today to break it all down is
Speaker 1: Ian McMillan, a writer over at oddshark dot com. Now
Speaker 1: I try to butter up all of our guests just
Speaker 1: so they'll agree with me regardless of what I say,
Speaker 1: So make of this what you will. But Ian is crazy,
Speaker 1: and I mean that in a really good way. We're
Speaker 1: gonna be talking about Week one of the NFL on
Speaker 1: this show. But if I wanted him to handicap some
Speaker 1: UFC matches, he'd be all over it. What did you
Speaker 1: want to bet on the Fortnite World Cup last month?
Speaker 1: Because he broke down all the betting odds So if
Speaker 1: you're feeling really good about your son's soccer matchup or
Speaker 1: something this weekend like I am, then just reach out
Speaker 1: to Ian because he's probably gonna be able to give
Speaker 1: you some under the Raider player props. You can find
Speaker 1: him on Twitter at Ian mac os That's IAI n
Speaker 1: mac os Ian.
Speaker 2: How's it going, man, it's going great things for having
Speaker 2: me on, What a great intro. You are absolutely correct.
Speaker 2: If I can find a way to make some money
Speaker 2: betting on anything, I will do it.
Speaker 1: So I mean legitimately with my kid, Like the over
Speaker 1: under for him is half a goal. I mean the
Speaker 1: under is at minus one thirty, the overs at plus
Speaker 1: one oh five. Any insight there, I'm gonna bring you
Speaker 1: over here.
Speaker 2: Depends on the weather a couple other factors, but either way,
Speaker 2: I think I like the over on that.
Speaker 1: Yeah. I've seen him play and that's a loser, all right, buddy.
Speaker 1: He has been playing for two years. He has yet
Speaker 1: to score a goal. But we don't know. My expert
Speaker 1: coaching may come into play, so look, before we get
Speaker 1: into it, I do want to announce the winner of
Speaker 1: our August contest for the autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. Congratulations
Speaker 1: to George from Egg Harbor City, New Jersey, and we've
Speaker 1: already notified George by email, so he will be getting
Speaker 1: the helmet soon enough. Now, if you did not win,
Speaker 1: which is pretty much everyone other than George, dry your
Speaker 1: eyes because we are running another contest for September. If
Speaker 1: you're sad about missing out on the McCaffrey helmet, not
Speaker 1: to worry because we've got an autographed Alvin Kamara helmet
Speaker 1: giveaway for September. It's the same rules as before. Leave
Speaker 1: a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and
Speaker 1: send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros
Speaker 1: dot com. And if you have already screenshotted and sent
Speaker 1: in your review, then great, you are automatically entered into
Speaker 1: this month and all future months contests. It's a great
Speaker 1: job way to support the show and potentially win prizes.
Speaker 1: You're doing life right, all right. So, as I said,
Speaker 1: Ian and I are going to give our thoughts on
Speaker 1: some bets for week one, but I will note at
Speaker 1: the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff
Speaker 1: of the Bears Packers game, so we aren't going to
Speaker 1: be referencing it anyway, But just so you know, however,
Speaker 1: it turned out that is exactly how we would have
Speaker 1: picked it had it been fair for us to do so.
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take credit this and I'll force
Speaker 1: I into as well. So Ian, We're gonna get started
Speaker 1: with some of our favorite bets for Week one, but
Speaker 1: before we do, I do want to talk to you
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Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler all right, And so we're
Speaker 1: each going to be giving three picks here. And since
Speaker 1: this is our inaugural weekly pick show, I kind of
Speaker 1: wanted to come up with a catchy name for this
Speaker 1: first segment. I was thinking something with six, you know,
Speaker 1: since we're both doing three picks, and as my daughter
Speaker 1: recently informed me, three plus three is in fact six,
Speaker 1: So I was thinking maybe like six feet under. But
Speaker 1: I feel like that's a bet omen right, I mean,
Speaker 1: it's got to be better.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that might be a bad open. I mean, the
Speaker 2: classic go for betting, for anything betting related for the NFL,
Speaker 2: especially if it's six picks, would be the Pick six.
Speaker 1: Oh, the pick six. That would be I'm not even kidding.
Speaker 1: I was gonna come up with something totally lame. The
Speaker 1: pick six it is. We're going with that for the
Speaker 1: pick six. You're I mean, look, I know all of
Speaker 1: our former guests listen to this, but you're officially my
Speaker 1: favorite guest because you you have done that. And just
Speaker 1: to be clear, I mean, unless you know, we make
Speaker 1: some sort of wager for you to be my co
Speaker 1: host on this, like you're not going to be appearing
Speaker 1: every single show, but I'm keeping that already. Pick six
Speaker 1: that's our first part. You can, all right, So well done.
Speaker 1: I digress a little bit, but let's get going with
Speaker 1: the first edition of Pick six. I love it. For
Speaker 1: all odds, we're going to be using the consensus odds
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com, which, as I've told you before,
Speaker 1: aggregates the odds available in the market, so you might
Speaker 1: see one or two different odds across the various sports
Speaker 1: book But for our purposes, we're going to be using
Speaker 1: the consensus picks. So, Ian, why don't you go ahead
Speaker 1: start us off? What's your what's your top bet? All right?
Speaker 2: So, I yeah, the first pick. I do have to
Speaker 2: put a little bit of an asterisk next because I'm
Speaker 2: a little bit biased. I am a diehard Atlanta Falcons fan. Now,
Speaker 2: the first rule in betting is don't follow your heart,
Speaker 2: don't be biased, but I can't really help it, especially
Speaker 2: when it comes to NFL. But also another little lastix.
Speaker 2: So Falcons right now are plus four against the Vikings.
Speaker 2: But I just read about a half an hour ago
Speaker 2: that Julio Jones may not play if he doesn't get
Speaker 2: that contract done before Sunday. So if he doesn't play,
Speaker 2: I have the right to withdraw this bet, even though
Speaker 2: I guess.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm sorry. No, we will not honor that.
Speaker 1: This is official. This is official to be fair. I
Speaker 1: did see that as well. It read to me much
Speaker 1: more of a I don't know. I mean, I'm optimistic
Speaker 1: this is gonna get done. But if I can't, I
Speaker 1: can't say for certain, then I'm gonna suit up. Sounded
Speaker 1: it didn't sound to me like there's a real risk
Speaker 1: of him missing. But I get it, you know, I
Speaker 1: feel you, and in fact, I'll reverse course and if
Speaker 1: in fact he does miss the game, I'll let you out.
Speaker 2: I mean, I've already got my bet locked in, so
Speaker 2: I'm set either way. So they're plus four at the Vikings. Now.
Speaker 2: The Falcons obviously had an off year last year, but
Speaker 2: their top two defensive players were out, got hurt and
Speaker 2: put on ir the very first week in Ricardo Allen
Speaker 2: and and Dion Jones, so I expect them to have
Speaker 2: a bounce back year this year. I'm a little bit
Speaker 2: worried because kind of their strength on offense is obviously
Speaker 2: the passing, the Vikings strength on defense is their past defense,
Speaker 2: So that does worry me a little bit. But as
Speaker 2: a Falcons fan, I can see the classic thing happening
Speaker 2: of them losing on a last second field goal. But
Speaker 2: if they do, if they do, the plus four covers it.
Speaker 2: So I like Atlanta. I think I'm gonna back them
Speaker 2: quite a bit this year. I think this is a
Speaker 2: big bounce back for them this year, and I love them.
Speaker 2: Plus four at Minnesota.
Speaker 1: Yeah, getting certainly getting past the key number of three.
Speaker 1: Exact difference, Yeah, for sure. You know, I looked at it.
Speaker 1: I was a little worried. It was a game that
Speaker 1: I didn't really feel comfortable either way. If I if
Speaker 1: I had to make a pick, it would be on
Speaker 1: the Falcons. But you know that looking at the preseason,
Speaker 1: I try not to take too much from it. The
Speaker 1: offensive line just kind of seemed a little bit out
Speaker 1: of sync and on the road in this first game.
Speaker 1: I like the Vikings too, I'm pretty high on them.
Speaker 1: Generally I would go with the Falcons by I was
Speaker 1: a little less sure of it. Now you're a Falcons fan,
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've got, you know, probably more insight into
Speaker 1: even the team than I do. But it struck me
Speaker 1: as a little worse. We did know, we were talking
Speaker 1: about it before we recorded that. It moved. The line moved.
Speaker 1: They were originally getting three and a half, right, and
Speaker 1: you were going to take them there too as well, Right.
Speaker 2: That's right. Yeah, as soon as I saw anything over three,
Speaker 2: that's kind of what I pounced on. It might have
Speaker 2: moved before because of that Julio Jones news that just
Speaker 2: came out today, but yeah, you said it. I mean,
Speaker 2: if one thing is gonna lose this bet, it's gonna
Speaker 2: be the Falcons offensive line. That's that's their biggest week
Speaker 2: point all seasons. So they got a couple of rookies
Speaker 2: that will be starting. Hopefully they can pull through for them.
Speaker 2: But if it's overfield goal, I like the Falcons here.
Speaker 1: No, I think overfield goal is certainly you know, again
Speaker 1: that key number of three is certainly something they take
Speaker 1: a look at. And in fact, you know I mentioned
Speaker 1: betting pros dot Com. One of the things that we
Speaker 1: do is we have a bunch of betting experts, sports
Speaker 1: betting experts that make their picks, and right now, fifty
Speaker 1: eight percent are with you. They're on the side they're
Speaker 1: going with the Falcons. So most likely that's gonna be
Speaker 1: a good pick. But for me, it's it's close enough
Speaker 1: where I is a little unsure. It is a game
Speaker 1: that I'm really interested to watch from an NFL perspective,
Speaker 1: just because both of these teams I think have a
Speaker 1: chance to be really interesting this year. So one way
Speaker 1: or another, I'll be watching for me my number one pick.
Speaker 1: And I just feel like when I say this, I
Speaker 1: almost I can't get off it because I've been trying
Speaker 1: to push myself off it. But I can't because I
Speaker 1: like it. You may not. It is the Chiefs at
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, and I like actually the Jaguars getting three.
Speaker 1: I know, I believe me. I am not in the
Speaker 1: majority on this one, but I've been looking at this
Speaker 1: game closely and kind of go through it, you know.
Speaker 1: For the record, By the way, I will say that
Speaker 1: my boss basically told me that he really loves the
Speaker 1: chief with the spread. So this may actually be my
Speaker 1: last episode. And Ian, since you came up with the
Speaker 1: last segment, you can probably just take over for me
Speaker 1: if you're cool with that. But look, this is how
Speaker 1: I generally approach making my game picks. Okay. I do
Speaker 1: my own projections for the game, and I come up
Speaker 1: with what I think the spread and the over under
Speaker 1: ought to be, and when the numbers are off by
Speaker 1: anything more than like a point or two, I then
Speaker 1: kind of start looking and how the game is being
Speaker 1: bet Now I talked to about this on Monday. But
Speaker 1: the spread opened originally as the Chiefs laying five, so
Speaker 1: it's moved about a point and a half since it
Speaker 1: first opened months ago. Now, some of that is news
Speaker 1: about Tyreek Hill, right, everybody thought that he was going
Speaker 1: to get suspended, and then once he wasn't, the spread
Speaker 1: closed a little bit. But again, as we talked about,
Speaker 1: players like wide receivers and running backs don't usually have
Speaker 1: that much of an impact on the spread. So you know,
Speaker 1: when it went from five, you know, it never rebounded
Speaker 1: when we knew that Hill was going to play. So
Speaker 1: when you look at the amount of money that's being bet,
Speaker 1: you can see that roughly seventy percent of the number
Speaker 1: of bets coming in here are being placed on the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: but the actual amount of money that's being bet is
Speaker 1: relatively split down the middle. And so when something like
Speaker 1: that happens, that almost is always an indication that sharpetters
Speaker 1: are betting against the public. So even though the public
Speaker 1: here is backing the Chiefs, the line has dropped and
Speaker 1: has not rebounded from where it was now in week one.
Speaker 1: It's a little hard to read into that. As much
Speaker 1: as I'm trying to do here because the lines have
Speaker 1: been out forever, so there's a lot of money that's
Speaker 1: been coming in forever. But still the fact that the
Speaker 1: line never rebounded suggests to me that there is some
Speaker 1: smart money coming in on the Jags. And really, again,
Speaker 1: as I talked about this with Sean Green on our
Speaker 1: last show, and we just mentioned, actually there are key numbers, right,
Speaker 1: There's three is a key number. Seven is a key number.
Speaker 1: Thirty percent of all games over the last fifteen years
Speaker 1: or so have ended with exactly a three or seven
Speaker 1: margin of victory. So when you get above or below
Speaker 1: one of those numbers, I get a little bit enticed.
Speaker 1: And so here at three and a half, I'm kind
Speaker 1: of excited. I've been talking myself into the Jags all preseason.
Speaker 1: I think the offense is gonna be much improved with
Speaker 1: any quarterback not named Blake Bordoles, and with Fournette slimmer
Speaker 1: and looking motivated, I think the defense is still going
Speaker 1: to be strong. They match up pretty well with the Chiefs,
Speaker 1: given that they have one of the true shutdown corners
Speaker 1: in Jalen Ramsey when he's on at least, and I
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a close game, So I'm
Speaker 1: gonna take it when you get that extra half a
Speaker 1: point at minus one fourteen. So go ahead tell me
Speaker 1: why I'm wrong.
Speaker 2: No, I actually don't hate that pick, but I mean so,
Speaker 2: like you said, the public's gonna be on the Chiefs,
Speaker 2: because when you look at it, it almost seems like just
Speaker 2: three and a half is too good to be true
Speaker 2: to bet on the Chiefs dudging by how good they
Speaker 2: were last season. But the points you made about the
Speaker 2: Jaguars were a lot of things that I've been thinking
Speaker 2: as well. I think they are gonna have a bounce
Speaker 2: back year similar to the Falcons. If you remember, hitting
Speaker 2: into the last season, the Jaguars were a dark horse
Speaker 2: pick for a lot of people to win the Super Bowl. Obviously,
Speaker 2: they you know, didn't live up to those expectations. I
Speaker 2: think they finished five and eleven, But I do think
Speaker 2: they are gonna have a bounce back year this year.
Speaker 2: And I think, just as a caveat for basically oli
Speaker 2: our picks in Week one, this is Week one, so
Speaker 2: we have no idea what we're gonna see from these teams.
Speaker 2: So there's certain games that there's teams that I'm interested.
Speaker 2: I would need to see how they're looking and how
Speaker 2: they're gonna perform this year before I place any money
Speaker 2: on it. So that's why I'm not picking the Jaguars myself.
Speaker 2: But I'm also not gonna pick the Chiefs because the
Speaker 2: Jaguars are just one of those teams that I want
Speaker 2: to see before I put my money on it. So
Speaker 2: I don't hate the bet, especially because I don't know
Speaker 2: the three and a half. It seems. I don't like
Speaker 2: calling betting lines traps, but if there is a trap line,
Speaker 2: it would be this one. It Chiefs seem too.
Speaker 1: Easy, right, and you know again, let's just make it clear, Okay.
Speaker 1: First of all, I mentioned the percentage of experts that
Speaker 1: were on your side in the last pick. Sixty six
Speaker 1: percent of experts are siding with the Chiefs here langing
Speaker 1: the three and a half. So I will put that
Speaker 1: out there. And of course, I mean, I'm gonna be honest.
Speaker 1: I'm absolutely terrified to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid's record,
Speaker 1: of course, whenever you know his record off a bye
Speaker 1: is well known. He's usually good in first game, so
Speaker 1: there are plenty of factors that make me nervous. But
Speaker 1: I honestly, I just think that this is gonna be
Speaker 1: a different Jaguars team. I think playing at home to
Speaker 1: open the season, I think the spread, you know, once
Speaker 1: it got past once it stayed above three. Really, I
Speaker 1: just it's something where I feel like it's gonna be
Speaker 1: enough that the Jaguars are gonna pull it out. But
Speaker 1: I'm willing to be on an island here a little bit.
Speaker 1: So all right, what's your second pick?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so my second pick and actually my one of
Speaker 2: my main points, but my second pick actually helps, oh,
Speaker 2: your Jaguars pick as well. So my second pick is
Speaker 2: going to be the Buccaneers minus one over the forty
Speaker 2: nine ers. And that point is what it's like to
Speaker 2: play in Florida in September. So the Jacksonville has that
Speaker 2: advantage playing at home in Florida in September. Tampa Bay
Speaker 2: has that advantage as well. It's just humid, it's grown.
Speaker 2: Even teams like Miami. I'd like to see what they're
Speaker 2: gonna do in September because I don't have the exact
Speaker 2: numbers in front of me, but something tells me that
Speaker 2: Florida teams have a good spread record in the month
Speaker 2: of September, and I think that just September's in Florida's
Speaker 2: can can be tough, So Buccaneers it's because they're a
Speaker 2: Falcon divisional opponent, it's it could I die a little
Speaker 2: inside every time I pick a different NFC South team.
Speaker 2: But I think the Buccaneers are going to do better
Speaker 2: than a lot of people think. And I think the
Speaker 2: forty nine ers are going to do worse than a
Speaker 2: lot of people think. A lot of people are high
Speaker 2: up on the forty nine ers this year, and they
Speaker 2: were heading into last year as well. I think a
Speaker 2: lot of people just have high hopes for Jimmy Garoppolo.
Speaker 2: But I don't see it. I mean, he had a
Speaker 2: couple of good what was it might even just been
Speaker 2: preseason when he was with the Patriots, had a couple
Speaker 2: of good games. Maybe it's regular season. I kind of
Speaker 2: forget now, But.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he played a couple of games in
Speaker 1: the regular season that year where I remember then he
Speaker 1: got injured and then Jacoby Brissett came in and they
Speaker 1: won against the Texans or something like that. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: he played a few games, but nothing really substantial in
Speaker 1: the regular season.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And but I just think that most quarterbacks in
Speaker 2: the NFL are going to have at least some sort
Speaker 2: of success inside the Patriots system. So I'm just not
Speaker 2: sold on him. Before he got hurt. Last year, he
Speaker 2: didn't look great. He didn't look great in the preseason.
Speaker 2: This year, I'm not high up on Jimmy Garoppolo at all.
Speaker 2: I think the Buccaneers at home, and I think they're
Speaker 2: improved from last year. I mean, they still have some
Speaker 2: offensive weapons as well, like they of course they have
Speaker 2: Mike Evans. I think Chris Godwin's gonna have a big year.
Speaker 2: They have a couple of good running backs in Peyton
Speaker 2: Barber and Ronald Jones. I just think Tampa Bay at
Speaker 2: home against a West Coast forty nine ers team that
Speaker 2: I'm not high on. I think I think that's a
Speaker 2: game Tampa is gonna win.
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity, you know, we know about the whole
Speaker 1: West Coast teams playing on the East Coast. Do you
Speaker 1: think that that holds true even for Week one or
Speaker 1: do you think that that's more something for in the season.
Speaker 2: I think it holds true, but not as much as
Speaker 2: it does as would mid season and generally just road
Speaker 2: teams as a whole. I'm betting on a lot of
Speaker 2: road teams actually other than the Bucks. The Bucks are home,
Speaker 2: but I'm betting on a lot of road teams week
Speaker 2: one because I just don't think it has as big
Speaker 2: of an effect as it does mid or late season,
Speaker 2: just because by then they're just they're they've been traveling
Speaker 2: all year, they're tired, they're hurt. Week one, it doesn't
Speaker 2: have as big an effect. But I would still say
Speaker 2: it does have an effect that's at least worth mentioning.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it's a good bed. Fifty
Speaker 1: eight percent of experts are with you. This was not
Speaker 1: a game I had a good feel for it, just because, look,
Speaker 1: you mentioned it before. Week one is really tough because
Speaker 1: we really don't know what we're gonna see, and and
Speaker 1: Garoppolo looked horrific. You heard the practice reports, and then
Speaker 1: he looked passable in week three of the preseason, so
Speaker 1: we really don't know. This is one where if I
Speaker 1: was forced to make a pick, I would take the
Speaker 1: Bucks laying one. But it's a game that I really
Speaker 1: as I tried to analyze, I just couldn't get a
Speaker 1: good feel for it. It strikes me, you know, kind
Speaker 1: of a pick them maybe minus one is probably right,
Speaker 1: and I would probably take the Bucks if I had to,
Speaker 1: but overall, I think i'd probably stay away from But
Speaker 1: you know, it's certainly the Florida point, which also I
Speaker 1: think Sean brought up on our last show, and traveling
Speaker 1: cross country certainly gives me hope there for the Bucks.
Speaker 1: For me, my second game is look, I mean, I
Speaker 1: bet against Patrick Mahomes, so I feel like I've got
Speaker 1: to keep going and get a little crazy here and
Speaker 1: bet against Drew Brees in primetime. I'm going to take
Speaker 1: the Texans plus seven at minus one fourteen. We did
Speaker 1: a bunch of shows earlier this preseason where we were
Speaker 1: picking division winners and playoff teams and potential Super Bowl winners,
Speaker 1: and I was really really high on the Texans pretty
Speaker 1: much even before the Andrew Luck news. They have a
Speaker 1: very tough schedule and their offensive line was questionable, to
Speaker 1: be generous frankly, but I had enough optimism that there
Speaker 1: was going to be some growth here overall. Now they've
Speaker 1: had this crazy, crazy, crazy preseason where they've traded Clowney
Speaker 1: and they've lost Lamar Miller, but they've added Duke Johnson
Speaker 1: and Carlos Hide and Kenny Stills and most importantly Laramie
Speaker 1: Tunsel and our last show, I agreed that, you know,
Speaker 1: we just couldn't understand why the line was high. I
Speaker 1: sort of pegged at it more like five and a
Speaker 1: half or something, if I was going to pick it
Speaker 1: out of a hat. Now, if you want to hear
Speaker 1: more of the reasons why I think that's too high,
Speaker 1: I mentioned them on our last show. Do I think
Speaker 1: the Saints should be favorite? Of course, of course they
Speaker 1: should not by seven, which again is one of those
Speaker 1: key numbers. Even without Clowny. The Texans still love JJ Watt.
Speaker 1: I'm expecting Whitney Merciless to bounce back. I love the
Speaker 1: addition of Duke Johnson, but really, most of all, it's
Speaker 1: Tunsil who's going to really solidify that line. Now the
Speaker 1: betters slightly agree here, but not overwhelmingly.
Speaker 2: So.
Speaker 1: The number of bets is about fifty to fifty, with
Speaker 1: more like a sixty forty split in terms of the
Speaker 1: actual money coming in in favor of the Texans. With
Speaker 1: that spread, that's not really anything significant enough where I'm
Speaker 1: going to draw any conclusions. Now, if it dropped to
Speaker 1: six and a half, I'd probably still like the Texans,
Speaker 1: and I do think that there would be value there,
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure I would be including them as
Speaker 1: one of my best bets. As a touchdown though, I
Speaker 1: will take that. And the experts are pretty split on this.
Speaker 1: On bettingpros dot Com, it's about fifty five percent siding
Speaker 1: with the Texans. So what do you think crazy to
Speaker 1: go against Breeze in primetime or what?
Speaker 2: No? I like that pick. You're picking against the eighths.
Speaker 2: I hate that Saints are releast favorite team, but yeah.
Speaker 1: I know you're letting your your Falcon fandom, you know color.
Speaker 2: I think I even started the show saying you shouldn't
Speaker 2: be biased when you're betting on sports, and then.
Speaker 1: You are breaking your own rule. Had you not come
Speaker 1: up with a name for this segment, I would end
Speaker 1: this podcast right now.
Speaker 2: No, but I do like to pick, and a lot
Speaker 2: of the points that you made I agree with. A
Speaker 2: big thing. The Saints can't stop the pass as well,
Speaker 2: and I think the Texans have it a couple of
Speaker 2: two of the best receivers in the league and DeAndre
Speaker 2: Hopkins will Fuller, who I think is extremely underrated. He
Speaker 2: was having a great breakout year last year until he
Speaker 2: got hurt yeah, I think seven points is just is
Speaker 2: just too much.
Speaker 1: I think it's just too much. It's just too much.
Speaker 1: It's got to be below it's got to be below
Speaker 1: that key number. I I don't get it. It does
Speaker 1: make me nervous, but you know, and you I could
Speaker 1: say there is a scenario where, you know, the Saints
Speaker 1: come out and just go bonkers. But really the Texans
Speaker 1: are good. They're and you know, I'm not optimistic on
Speaker 1: their future, you know, in future years, given what they've
Speaker 1: they've done this season, but overall, for what I like
Speaker 1: coming into this game, I just it's it's got to
Speaker 1: be less than a touch.
Speaker 2: And I don't think the Saints defense is good enough.
Speaker 2: That's going to hinder them all year, I think, And
Speaker 2: I mean, you need a good defense to cover these
Speaker 2: big spreads because there's always the chance of the back
Speaker 2: door cover, which absolutely into one too many times. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I definitely like the Texans there.
Speaker 1: All right, who's your third pick?
Speaker 2: Okay, So my third pick, we're going to go to
Speaker 2: the AFC East. I'm taking the Bills at plus two
Speaker 2: point five over the Jets. The Bills are on the road,
Speaker 2: so plus two point five's at minus one oh nine
Speaker 2: right now. So when you're talking about the AFC East,
Speaker 2: obviously have the Patriots at the top of the division
Speaker 2: the Dolphins at the bottom. It's those two middle teams
Speaker 2: that have a lot of questions about them. They both
Speaker 2: have two second year quarterbacks. But I just like the
Speaker 2: Bills a little bit more. Actually think the Bills are
Speaker 2: going to be a surprised team this year. I wouldn't
Speaker 2: even be totally surprised if they snagged one of the
Speaker 2: last wildcaret spots there. I like Josh Allen better than
Speaker 2: I like Sam Darnold. I just think they have a
Speaker 2: few more weapons. I think they have a better defense.
Speaker 2: If you look at how they performed last year, neither
Speaker 2: offense was great compared to the rest of the league.
Speaker 2: The one big difference, though, is that the Bills defense
Speaker 2: was actually half decent. They're they're just about middle of
Speaker 2: the pack and just about every defensive category, whereas the
Speaker 2: Jets defense was still one of the worst. So I
Speaker 2: like the Bills. I think they have some weapons. I mean,
Speaker 2: they're on the road, but really from Buffalo, New York,
Speaker 2: I don't even that's hardly even a road game whatsoever.
Speaker 2: I really like one edition that I haven't really heard
Speaker 2: too many people talk with that I really like for
Speaker 2: them this year is Cole Beasley. I think that he
Speaker 2: was under used when he was in Dallas. I think
Speaker 2: he's gonna be a big weapon for them this year.
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna help Josh Allen ode a lot.
Speaker 2: So I wish I could have got this number plus three,
Speaker 2: that key number, that field goal number, but I don't
Speaker 2: hate them at the plus two point five numbers. So
Speaker 2: that's my third pick.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting game. First of all, the Jets
Speaker 1: fan so I take great offense, kiss and you're it's
Speaker 1: really hurting, But I have no problem for it. I
Speaker 1: didn't have a great feel for this one either. I'm surprised,
Speaker 1: you know, to me moving off three to two and
Speaker 1: a half, that would have scared me. Here, do you
Speaker 1: think the Bills are gonna win? Outright? Out of curiosity?
Speaker 1: Would you, you know, go for a pick them and
Speaker 1: take you know, the the plus money I do.
Speaker 2: I'm I'm actually gonna sprinkle their money line as well.
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win this game.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think it's fair. I think I
Speaker 1: don't really know what to expect again. Week one is
Speaker 1: so difficult because we really don't know what to expect
Speaker 1: the Jets. You know, they have a pretty terrible secondary overall.
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Jamal Adams is great, but you know,
Speaker 1: really other than that, they really kind of struggle back there.
Speaker 1: Tremaine Johnson has been a disappointment. They really didn't get
Speaker 1: much depth there. So you know, Alan who may not
Speaker 1: be that accurate, but he's got a big arm. I
Speaker 1: love your point about Beasley because you know, everybody's been
Speaker 1: talking about, you know, John Brown, who I also love,
Speaker 1: but Beasley is really a guy who can kind of
Speaker 1: open things up in the middle while Brown and Foster
Speaker 1: are going deep. So it's an interesting pick for me.
Speaker 1: Don't you get worried a little bit about division games?
Speaker 1: I mean, these teams. You know, it's new coaching staff
Speaker 1: of course for the Jets, but you know, these teams
Speaker 1: they see each other all the time, they meet all
Speaker 1: the time. Division games, to me, are always the toughest
Speaker 1: to pick against the spread.
Speaker 2: What I don't like doing in divisional games is taking
Speaker 2: the favor. So okay, that's why that would kind of
Speaker 2: scare me more away if I was picking the Jets.
Speaker 2: But because it's the divisional game. Anything can happen in
Speaker 2: divisional games, so why not take the points?
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, that's a fair point for me. My
Speaker 1: third one is going to be the Panthers getting two
Speaker 1: and a half from the Rams at minus one oh seven. Now,
Speaker 1: I like this a lot more when it was at three.
Speaker 1: Kind of like you, and I liked it a lot
Speaker 1: more before Cam Newton's injury. But it sounds like he's
Speaker 1: going to be good to go. In our Team Futures episode,
Speaker 1: I picked the Panthers as the best bet to win
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl given the odds they were at plus
Speaker 1: forty eight hundred or something like that. I'm not one
Speaker 1: hundred convinced that they're going to be a good team,
Speaker 1: but I think that if they are good, they have
Speaker 1: a chance to be really, really good. Remember they were
Speaker 1: six and two before Cam suffered his injury. He adapted
Speaker 1: well to Norb Turner's offense. I love what Dj Moore
Speaker 1: and Curtis Samuel can do. And again, the defense, which
Speaker 1: was pretty strong overall. They had some holes, certainly, but
Speaker 1: they remained strong and they've added some additional pieces like
Speaker 1: Jerald McCoy, so I think they're going to be solid
Speaker 1: if cam can stay healthy. And so the Rams are
Speaker 1: coming in and they get that cup, but they've lost
Speaker 1: some Domkin sue. There are questions around Todd Gurley. I
Speaker 1: know the recent report that came out today that he's
Speaker 1: apparently going to get a full workload, but that remains
Speaker 1: to be seen. Their offensive line is weaker than last year,
Speaker 1: so I think the Panthers can get pressure on Jared Goff,
Speaker 1: and you saw in the Super Bowl that he is
Speaker 1: not that great at handling pressure. We just talked about
Speaker 1: what happens when West Coast teams travel to the East Coast.
Speaker 1: They usually have issues. I agree, not as strong and
Speaker 1: week one, but I do think it is going to
Speaker 1: be something. And while I feel a little queasy about
Speaker 1: that number being under the key number of three, it's
Speaker 1: pretty clear that sharp betters are what's keeping the number here.
Speaker 1: About three quarters of the bets are on the Rams,
Speaker 1: which makes sense with then coming off the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: But like with the Jaguars and the Chiefs, the money
Speaker 1: coming in is actually split about evenly. And remember there
Speaker 1: are questions on Newton and the money is still split
Speaker 1: even So with that, that really tells me that sharp
Speaker 1: betters are kind of looking at the Panthers here, and
Speaker 1: with as good as the Rams were last year, remember
Speaker 1: in the first game they were losing at halftime to
Speaker 1: the Raiders at thirteen ten, I think it's fair that
Speaker 1: they may get off to a little bit of a
Speaker 1: slow start type of beginning to their season. Now, I
Speaker 1: would love it if that line crept back up to three.
Speaker 1: I do not think it's going too based on the
Speaker 1: money that's coming in, but I actually think that the
Speaker 1: Panthers can win this game outright, So I will gladly
Speaker 1: take the two and a half. And I will point
Speaker 1: out that experts are not signing with me, well not overwhelmingly,
Speaker 1: but fifty eight percent of experts are signing with the
Speaker 1: Rams here. So what are your thoughts on that game?
Speaker 2: Well, we officially have the entire NFC South covered for
Speaker 2: Week one with the Panthers pick.
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I didn't even know anything about the Panthers.
Speaker 1: I was just picking it to get you riled up
Speaker 1: a little bit.
Speaker 2: This game is almost identical to your first pick as
Speaker 2: far as it's one of the top teams from last
Speaker 2: year with a small spread. You look at it, you
Speaker 2: think the obvious pick is the Rams and you look
Speaker 2: into it more and you find that the sharp money's
Speaker 2: on the opposite side. This is a tough one. This
Speaker 2: is that one's going to be a stay away for me. Actually,
Speaker 2: you know what, I might go rams just because it
Speaker 2: is under that number of three. But I mean, once again,
Speaker 2: all the points you made were good points. I don't
Speaker 2: know what I'm gonna see with Cam Newton. Don't forget
Speaker 2: last year, the Panthers at the very start of the
Speaker 2: year were one of the best teams in the league,
Speaker 2: and then they just kind of faltered down the stretch
Speaker 2: a little bit.
Speaker 1: And it was really when Cam got injured. If he
Speaker 1: wasn't injured, we'd be thinking completely differently about the Panthers than.
Speaker 2: We do at the moment because and he was injured too.
Speaker 2: By the end of the year, it was looking bad.
Speaker 2: He could barely throw football ten yards. It was rough
Speaker 2: to watch. And then another point is with Sean McVay
Speaker 2: obviously is one of the best coaches in the league,
Speaker 2: but in Week one, I think it's tough for a
Speaker 2: really good coach to take advantage of that in Week
Speaker 2: one because he just doesn't have any game film from
Speaker 2: the other team outside of preseason that they can really
Speaker 2: use to judge and game play with so good coaches
Speaker 2: actually get better as the season goes along. So if
Speaker 2: you're gonna pick a time for a Sean McVay led
Speaker 2: team to lose, it'd be very early in the season,
Speaker 2: or even Week one.
Speaker 1: They were losing thirteen ten to the Raiders. I mean,
Speaker 1: it really is something. I agree. If you're going to
Speaker 1: take advantage of these teams, I think this is the
Speaker 1: time to do it. So let's just do a quick
Speaker 1: summary here. You've got the Falcons getting four from the Vikings,
Speaker 1: the Bills getting two and a half from the Jets,
Speaker 1: and the Bucks laying one against the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 1: I like the Jaguars getting three and a half from
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Texans getting seven from the Saints, and
Speaker 1: the Panthers getting two and a half from the Rams.
Speaker 1: All right, good job, I love it. Pick six first
Speaker 1: pick six in the book. Oh a good job. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm really impressed. All right, So before we move on
Speaker 1: to our next segment, I do want to mention another
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Speaker 1: Betting Pros. All right, we're gonna move to our next
Speaker 1: segment here, and I have an idea for the name
Speaker 1: of what this is. Now you're gonna have to tell
Speaker 1: me whether or not you can hear this, okay, because
Speaker 1: I'm the least technologically proficient human in the world. Look,
Speaker 1: are you ready? It's did you get it?
Speaker 2: I did?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 2: It's a trap. Yeah that's good. That's good.
Speaker 1: That's good. I did it like you have. You have
Speaker 1: absolutely no idea. How proud of myself I am for
Speaker 1: that because I completely expected not to do it. So
Speaker 1: these are games that essentially we're looking at and we're avoiding,
Speaker 1: and it's a trap. It's gonna be the name of
Speaker 1: the segment, which I came up with by myself. So
Speaker 1: we can't give you know, the credit for everything over here,
Speaker 1: but these are we're each gonna give one game that
Speaker 1: we are basically looking at the line and we're just
Speaker 1: not really having it because it's just not something we
Speaker 1: feel good about. So why don't you start us off?
Speaker 1: What's your game to avoid?
Speaker 2: So my game to avoid is probably the most obvious
Speaker 2: one that a lot of people would think to avoid,
Speaker 2: and that would be the Colts and the Chargers. The Chargers,
Speaker 2: right now are set as six point five point favorites,
Speaker 2: and I just I need to see what the Colts
Speaker 2: are going to be looking like without Andrew Luck. I mean,
Speaker 2: that's kind of obvious. Andrew Luck just left the team
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. He retired the team as a whole
Speaker 2: outside of obviously quarterback at this point, but the team
Speaker 2: as a whole has got better. But just how much
Speaker 2: is Andrew Luck worth. I don't hate the Chargers there
Speaker 2: because the six and a half is that half a
Speaker 2: point under that magic number of seven. But I need
Speaker 2: to avoid it because I need to see what Jacobe
Speaker 2: Prisett's going to be like. If he plays like he
Speaker 2: did two years ago when he started for almost the
Speaker 2: whole season, then I would take the Chargers all day long.
Speaker 2: But I'm going to give him the bend of the
Speaker 2: doubt that he hasn't proved over the past couple of years.
Speaker 2: I need to see what the Colts look like as
Speaker 2: a whole. Also, the Chargers, see they seem to cover
Speaker 2: against teams you wouldn't think they're going to cover against
Speaker 2: when they're like big point favorites. They like to allow
Speaker 2: the back door cover. So for those reasons, I will
Speaker 2: be avoiding that game on Sunday.
Speaker 1: I think that's fine. I don't know if you've been
Speaker 1: following the line movements in this game. I mean, it
Speaker 1: was when Luck was healthy, it was at three and
Speaker 1: a half. As soon as the injury happened, it jumped
Speaker 1: to seven and a half, and then people hammered it
Speaker 1: and I fell to six and a half, and that's
Speaker 1: where it's kind of been staying. I'm more optimistic about
Speaker 1: the Colts in this game, and if it was at seven,
Speaker 1: or if it had stayed at seven and a half,
Speaker 1: I would be all over it. At six and a half,
Speaker 1: it makes me a little nervous. I'm you know, to
Speaker 1: me the Brisset thing, I don't think Brisset's a great
Speaker 1: quarterback at all, but I mean, I'm certainly not looking
Speaker 1: at what happened a couple of years ago when he
Speaker 1: had to parachute in and learn the offense which was
Speaker 1: not Frank Reich's offense, and figure it out. He's been
Speaker 1: taking reps with the team the entire preseason. I think
Speaker 1: he knows the system. It's a better system. The Colts,
Speaker 1: other than at quarterback, are a really strong team. And
Speaker 1: for me, the Chargers, I mean, they're kind of decimated
Speaker 1: at offensive line, they've got some defensive injury. Melbyn Gordon
Speaker 1: is not there. So for me, it's a game that honestly,
Speaker 1: if I had to pick, I would take the Colts.
Speaker 1: But it's just not something again, you said it at
Speaker 1: six and a half. It's really tough.
Speaker 2: That's a tricky number.
Speaker 1: That's a tricky number, and it's something where it makes
Speaker 1: you want to take the Chargers. But for me, if
Speaker 1: it was at seven or certainly seven and a half,
Speaker 1: I would be all over the Colts. At six and
Speaker 1: a half, I'm fine with avoiding that. I've got no
Speaker 1: problem with that. But again, the line movement here, pay
Speaker 1: attention to it, see how it's going to because right
Speaker 1: now it's at six and a half. It has been
Speaker 1: all over the place, including moving down since the luck news.
Speaker 1: So that's a pretty good one for me I am
Speaker 1: going to take. And this kind of goes into what
Speaker 1: you said earlier when we were talking about division games.
Speaker 1: I'm going to avoid the Cowboys laying seven and a
Speaker 1: half against the Giants. Now, to be as transparent as possible,
Speaker 1: I took a look at the lines like eight hours
Speaker 1: ago when I was trying to come out with the
Speaker 1: bet that I was going to avoid, and the line
Speaker 1: was at seven, So now it's at seven and half,
Speaker 1: which actually kind of makes me lean a little towards
Speaker 1: the Giants, but not enough to want to touch it.
Speaker 1: First of all, as a general rule, as we were
Speaker 1: talking about, division games are scary, and it's generally unusual
Speaker 1: for a division favorite in the first week of the
Speaker 1: season to win a game in a blowout, and the
Speaker 1: Cowboys in particular were not great last year as home favorites.
Speaker 1: These teams know each other really, really well. It's unclear
Speaker 1: what Zeke's workload is going to be. There's talk about
Speaker 1: twenty to twenty five reps. I don't know what that means.
Speaker 1: Amari Cooper is still dealing with planter fasciitis, and yet
Speaker 1: the Giants think I'm gonna admit that. But Sekwon Barkley,
Speaker 1: Evan Ingram, Sterling Shepherd, there is enough there to score
Speaker 1: a little bit. The money coming in here is pretty
Speaker 1: split down the middle. So it's just one of those where,
Speaker 1: you know, a division matchup, I've got to feel really
Speaker 1: really comfortable with the number to make me want to
Speaker 1: get involved, and this one just doesn't do it for me, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you.
Speaker 2: There, I'm avoiding it as well. One big thing to
Speaker 2: think about with the Cowboys too, is that they have
Speaker 2: two different factors about their team that makes me nervous
Speaker 2: to take a big spread. Number one is that they
Speaker 2: have they're very defensively oriented, so there's not a lot
Speaker 2: of points scored in Cowboys games. And they're a rushing offense.
Speaker 2: So when you run the ball more, the clock obviously
Speaker 2: goes a bit quicker, and when that happens, you don't
Speaker 2: have enough time to kind of win by more than
Speaker 2: double digit points. So for that reason, I stay away
Speaker 2: from Cowboys when they're favored by that kind of number.
Speaker 2: So yeah, that, yeah, I agree with you. I'm not
Speaker 2: gonna better on that game either. Age if I would,
Speaker 2: I would lean Giants.
Speaker 1: Yes, that's exactly right. And I think that that surprises
Speaker 1: people because I think everybody's gonna look and be like, well,
Speaker 1: you know, we love the Cowboys and stuff like that.
Speaker 1: But in the end, I just I really can't do it.
Speaker 1: Sixty three percent of experts are taking Dallas right now
Speaker 1: at seven and a half, so you know that is
Speaker 1: something to bear in mind. But for me, again, like you.
Speaker 1: If I was going to take it, I would take
Speaker 1: the Giants getting the seven and a half, all right,
Speaker 1: So for our it's a trap segment for our picks
Speaker 1: to avoid. You want no part of the Chargers laying
Speaker 1: six and a half to the Cults. I want no
Speaker 1: part of the Cowboys laying seven and a half to
Speaker 1: the Giant. All right, successful, first time we ever did.
Speaker 1: It's trapped.
Speaker 2: It's a try to go.
Speaker 1: I mean, you're you're crushing it right now. And there
Speaker 1: you know, we didn't even talk about the NFC South.
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're here.
Speaker 1: Finally we're able to get off it. All right, it's
Speaker 1: time for our final segment, where we are going to
Speaker 1: break down our favorite player props from this weekend's game.
Speaker 1: I was trying to come up with something clever for this.
Speaker 1: It was like proper analysis or something like that. I've
Speaker 1: got nothing. I'm just going to go conservative here and
Speaker 1: we're just going to go with top prop. So that
Speaker 1: that's all it is. This is our top prop segment.
Speaker 1: It's our one prop bet from this weekend that we
Speaker 1: like a lot. And admittedly there aren't you know, the
Speaker 1: full bevy of prop bets are not available in the market. Yet.
Speaker 1: There'll be a few more that will come out as
Speaker 1: we get closer to the game. But we've taken a
Speaker 1: look at what is roughly available in the market. So
Speaker 1: why don't we go ahead and start. You can what's
Speaker 1: your top prop for the weekend?
Speaker 2: So my top prop, and I'm realizing I'm contradicting myself.
Speaker 2: I just said I was going to stay away from
Speaker 2: the Giants Cowboys game, but not with my prop. There's
Speaker 2: a prop bet that I like in the game. I
Speaker 2: couldn't find the exact number, but I'm assuming it's a
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be taking this Saquon Barkley under rushing yards
Speaker 2: for that game. I'm gonna assume it's probably gonna be
Speaker 2: around eighty four. Like I said, I don't quite see yet,
Speaker 2: but whatever the number is, I like the under. His
Speaker 2: lowest rushing total in all of last year was against
Speaker 2: the Cowboys in Week two, so it was early in
Speaker 2: the season as well. He only gained twenty eight yards
Speaker 2: on eleven carries, and Cowboys gave up fifth fewest rushing
Speaker 2: yards per game last season. So obviously there's a lot
Speaker 2: of hype bo Barkley. He is, rightfully so one of
Speaker 2: the best running backs in the league, especially one of
Speaker 2: the best young running backs in the league. So I
Speaker 2: think because of that, the number is gonna be higher
Speaker 2: than it should be against a Cowboys defense that can
Speaker 2: stop their run. So in that game, I like a
Speaker 2: prop bet. I like the under on Saquon Barkley's rushing yards.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good one because I just,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't see them being able to have
Speaker 1: that many opportunities to run. I think they'll try, and
Speaker 1: I think Saquon will be heavily involved. But if you're
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, that's what you're gonna stop. You're gonna make
Speaker 1: Eli Manning try to beat you through the air. So
Speaker 1: I do think that putting all your effort into stopping
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley on the ground is what the Cowboys are
Speaker 1: going to do.
Speaker 2: And I like it. I like it.
Speaker 1: I mean I feel bad because we've been in mostly
Speaker 1: an agreement here. You know, I could try to fake
Speaker 1: it and be like, nah, dude, he's rushing for one
Speaker 1: hundred and forty, but I think it would be disingenuous.
Speaker 1: So maybe you can disagree with mine here. Okay, so
Speaker 1: really really rev up dig deep for this. It's not
Speaker 1: the South. But I'm going to go with Chris Carson
Speaker 1: to go one hundred rushing yards or more against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: That's at plus two thirty five. Now I would be
Speaker 1: fine to take these seventy five or more rushing yards,
Speaker 1: but that's at minus one thirteen. And for the difference
Speaker 1: that you'll get on your money, I think it's more
Speaker 1: than worth it. The Seahawks are nine and a half
Speaker 1: point favorites here at home on Sunday against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: They are the most run heavy team in the NFL.
Speaker 1: They ran nearly fifty percent of the time last year.
Speaker 1: They appear to hate Rashad Penny, and I think they're
Speaker 1: going to go to Carson early, and I think they're
Speaker 1: going to go to Carson late once they're ahead and
Speaker 1: trying to put the game on ice. He had over
Speaker 1: one hundred yards rushing in each of his life last
Speaker 1: three games last year. I think the fact that you
Speaker 1: can get nearly two and a half times your money
Speaker 1: on this wager struck me as pretty crazy. So it
Speaker 1: is my top prop of the week by far. Go
Speaker 1: ahead and hate it, fake a disagreement, or do something.
Speaker 2: I don't love it. I don't hate it, but I
Speaker 2: don't love it.
Speaker 1: Who whoa who? I was kidding. I mean, you've got
Speaker 1: to get on board, all right? Go ahead?
Speaker 2: No?
Speaker 1: No, no, go ahead, go ahead bye.
Speaker 2: I guess a couple of my biggest questions would be,
Speaker 2: I don't know, how are the Seahawks going to kind
Speaker 2: of divvy up their their carries? Is Chris Carson? Is
Speaker 2: he going to be the workhorse for them? Is Penny
Speaker 2: gonna get any carries there?
Speaker 1: I mean it's a mild risk, but given what they
Speaker 1: have said and given what they have shown in the preseason,
Speaker 1: they appear to have no interest in getting Rashad Penny
Speaker 1: overly involved. I think this is going to be a
Speaker 1: game where Chris Carson, I think the whole season, as
Speaker 1: long as he doesn't get injured, I think they are
Speaker 1: gonna heavily push Carson. And you know, I in addition
Speaker 1: to being a betting pros on the list, I'm also
Speaker 1: you know, I do fantasy workover at fantasypros dot Com.
Speaker 1: And Carson has been one of the biggest risers from
Speaker 1: a fantasy perspective, and a lot of that is because
Speaker 1: every indication coming out of Seattle is that they want
Speaker 1: him to just be the bell cow back, and I mean,
Speaker 1: Penny will get some, but I think, you know, as
Speaker 1: they did at the end of last year, I think
Speaker 1: twenty carries for the game is well within reach, if
Speaker 1: not more so. I think, you know, just given this game,
Speaker 1: I think they're going to go to him pretty much
Speaker 1: the entire game. I mean, the worry, honestly, in terms
Speaker 1: of the split, would be much more of once the
Speaker 1: game is in hand, as you'd expect it to be.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks are nine and a half point favorites. As
Speaker 1: I said that, maybe they would say, Okay, let's save
Speaker 1: our guy here, let's go to the backups. But other
Speaker 1: than that, I really think that he is going to
Speaker 1: be He's going to get the vast majority of the carries.
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean the Bengals did give up the
Speaker 2: fourth most rushing yards in the league per game last year,
Speaker 2: so they can give up yards in the ground, and
Speaker 2: like you said, Seahawks are probably gonna get up so
Speaker 2: they will have to run the ball. So my only
Speaker 2: concern would be just how they're going to split the carries.
Speaker 2: That would be my one concern. But other than that,
Speaker 2: I like it, especially at that price too.
Speaker 1: You see, you see I pushed you in. Yeah, you
Speaker 1: take it. And again a big thing is the price.
Speaker 1: I mean, plus two thirty five seems crazy to me.
Speaker 1: Basically getting two and a half times on your money
Speaker 1: seems crazy to me. For a guy, it's not like
Speaker 1: one hundred yards is this magical number. He did it
Speaker 1: his last three games last season, and everything coming out
Speaker 1: of them is that they love him. I think he's
Speaker 1: going to get all the work. I think they're going
Speaker 1: to run, run, run as much as possible. So I
Speaker 1: do like that. So you like Saquon Barkley. Again, the
Speaker 1: number is a little fuzzy. It's somewhere in the low eighties.
Speaker 1: We put it at eighty four, probably to be generous
Speaker 1: because I think it might be around right around there.
Speaker 1: But it's going to be in the low eighties. And
Speaker 1: you like under which I think is a good pick.
Speaker 1: And I like Chris Carson a little more specific to
Speaker 1: go one hundred rushing yards or more against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: And that said, plus two thirty five, all right, man,
Speaker 1: that is going to do it for today's show. That
Speaker 1: was really great. Ian. I remind everyone where they can
Speaker 1: find you and your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you can find me on Twitter. That's where
Speaker 2: most my work is posted. There, we at least get
Speaker 2: links to everything there, so my tag is AI Nmacos
Speaker 2: and then of course head over to odds Shark doc
Speaker 2: Off for any betting information there, and I do have
Speaker 2: some occasional articles up there, but for the most part,
Speaker 2: you'll see everything I do, including all my written stuff
Speaker 2: in videos over on Twitter.
Speaker 1: You can also find him at my house this weekend
Speaker 1: where he's going to be laying some betting odds on
Speaker 1: the kid's soccer game. As I said, well, that was
Speaker 1: really enjoyable. I thought your picks were solid. I really
Speaker 1: did not disagree with many, if any of them at all.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry about that. Next time I will definitely force
Speaker 1: some disagreement, but I hope we can do it again
Speaker 1: during the season.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, man, it's a lot of fun. Good luck
Speaker 2: to both of us this weekend.
Speaker 1: Absolutely so. I do want to remind everyone before we
Speaker 1: go about bet MGM, where you can place your first
Speaker 1: waiter of up to one hundred dollars risk free, and Sideboss,
Speaker 1: where they're offering a free to play season long NFL
Speaker 1: handicapping contest with fifty thousand dollars in cash prizes. Good
Speaker 1: luck with your wagers this weekend, my friends. We'll be
Speaker 1: back breaking down the early lines next week. That the
Speaker 1: fact that have not been not