WEBVTT - Best NFL Week 1 Bets + Favorite Props (Ep. 7) 0:00:07.680 --> 0:00:10.400 Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.880 the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:16.040 I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me 0:00:16.120 --> 0:00:19.119 on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is finally time 0:00:19.560 --> 0:00:22.439 after months of waiting, Week one of the NFL is here. 0:00:23.000 --> 0:00:25.120 So today, as we're going to be doing every Thursday 0:00:25.120 --> 0:00:27.360 when we record, we're going to talk about some of 0:00:27.400 --> 0:00:30.160 our best bets, either against the spread or over unders. 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:32.599 We'll give you a bet to avoid, and then we're 0:00:32.600 --> 0:00:35.160 gonna give you our favorite player prop bet for the week. 0:00:35.600 --> 0:00:37.519 And with me today to break it all down is 0:00:37.560 --> 0:00:40.360 Ian McMillan, a writer over at oddshark dot com. Now 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:42.479 I try to butter up all of our guests just 0:00:42.560 --> 0:00:44.560 so they'll agree with me regardless of what I say, 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.800 So make of this what you will. But Ian is crazy, 0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:50.080 and I mean that in a really good way. We're 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:51.960 gonna be talking about Week one of the NFL on 0:00:52.000 --> 0:00:54.640 this show. But if I wanted him to handicap some 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:57.480 UFC matches, he'd be all over it. What did you 0:00:57.520 --> 0:00:59.600 want to bet on the Fortnite World Cup last month? 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:02.240 Because he broke down all the betting odds So if 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:05.000 you're feeling really good about your son's soccer matchup or 0:01:05.000 --> 0:01:07.399 something this weekend like I am, then just reach out 0:01:07.400 --> 0:01:09.600 to Ian because he's probably gonna be able to give 0:01:09.600 --> 0:01:12.080 you some under the Raider player props. You can find 0:01:12.120 --> 0:01:16.280 him on Twitter at Ian mac os That's IAI n 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:17.600 mac os Ian. 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:20.080 How's it going, man, it's going great things for having 0:01:20.080 --> 0:01:22.559 me on, What a great intro. You are absolutely correct. 0:01:22.560 --> 0:01:24.120 If I can find a way to make some money 0:01:24.120 --> 0:01:25.959 betting on anything, I will do it. 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:28.720 So I mean legitimately with my kid, Like the over 0:01:28.880 --> 0:01:30.720 under for him is half a goal. I mean the 0:01:30.840 --> 0:01:33.880 under is at minus one thirty, the overs at plus 0:01:33.880 --> 0:01:36.160 one oh five. Any insight there, I'm gonna bring you 0:01:36.160 --> 0:01:36.520 over here. 0:01:36.640 --> 0:01:40.440 Depends on the weather a couple other factors, but either way, 0:01:40.440 --> 0:01:41.600 I think I like the over on that. 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:45.640 Yeah. I've seen him play and that's a loser, all right, buddy. 0:01:45.640 --> 0:01:47.160 He has been playing for two years. He has yet 0:01:47.200 --> 0:01:48.960 to score a goal. But we don't know. My expert 0:01:49.040 --> 0:01:51.440 coaching may come into play, so look, before we get 0:01:51.480 --> 0:01:53.520 into it, I do want to announce the winner of 0:01:53.600 --> 0:01:58.200 our August contest for the autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. Congratulations 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:01.120 to George from Egg Harbor City, New Jersey, and we've 0:02:01.160 --> 0:02:03.720 already notified George by email, so he will be getting 0:02:03.720 --> 0:02:06.040 the helmet soon enough. Now, if you did not win, 0:02:06.120 --> 0:02:08.760 which is pretty much everyone other than George, dry your 0:02:08.760 --> 0:02:12.320 eyes because we are running another contest for September. If 0:02:12.360 --> 0:02:14.920 you're sad about missing out on the McCaffrey helmet, not 0:02:15.040 --> 0:02:18.280 to worry because we've got an autographed Alvin Kamara helmet 0:02:18.320 --> 0:02:21.560 giveaway for September. It's the same rules as before. Leave 0:02:21.600 --> 0:02:24.080 a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and 0:02:24.160 --> 0:02:27.600 send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros 0:02:27.600 --> 0:02:30.560 dot com. And if you have already screenshotted and sent 0:02:30.600 --> 0:02:33.600 in your review, then great, you are automatically entered into 0:02:33.639 --> 0:02:36.720 this month and all future months contests. It's a great 0:02:36.800 --> 0:02:39.320 job way to support the show and potentially win prizes. 0:02:39.560 --> 0:02:41.800 You're doing life right, all right. So, as I said, 0:02:41.840 --> 0:02:43.760 Ian and I are going to give our thoughts on 0:02:43.840 --> 0:02:46.280 some bets for week one, but I will note at 0:02:46.320 --> 0:02:49.200 the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff 0:02:49.240 --> 0:02:51.680 of the Bears Packers game, so we aren't going to 0:02:51.680 --> 0:02:54.760 be referencing it anyway, But just so you know, however, 0:02:54.840 --> 0:02:56.960 it turned out that is exactly how we would have 0:02:57.000 --> 0:02:58.959 picked it had it been fair for us to do so. 0:02:58.960 --> 0:03:01.240 So I'm going to take credit this and I'll force 0:03:01.280 --> 0:03:03.919 I into as well. So Ian, We're gonna get started 0:03:03.960 --> 0:03:05.800 with some of our favorite bets for Week one, but 0:03:05.880 --> 0:03:07.360 before we do, I do want to talk to you 0:03:07.360 --> 0:03:10.520 guys about one of the sponsors of today's show, bet MGM, 0:03:10.639 --> 0:03:14.519 and specifically the betmgm Sports App. There was a time 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:16.760 not so long ago where to place a bet on 0:03:16.800 --> 0:03:19.600 a sporting event you needed to head out to Las Vegas. 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:22.400 But now, as you surely know, states are legalizing sports 0:03:22.440 --> 0:03:24.640 betting at a rapid pace, and there are plenty of 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:26.799 spots to go to in the country where you can 0:03:26.919 --> 0:03:29.160 just walk in and place a bet. But if you 0:03:29.160 --> 0:03:30.960 are in New Jersey, you can do that from the 0:03:31.000 --> 0:03:33.160 comfort of your home, because all you need to do 0:03:33.200 --> 0:03:35.440 to place a bet is to download the bet mgm 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:38.000 Sports app right on your phone. You can bet on 0:03:38.040 --> 0:03:40.560 pretty much any sporting event you want, including of course, 0:03:40.640 --> 0:03:44.240 any NFL game this week. Legitimately, on NFL Sunday, you 0:03:44.280 --> 0:03:46.880 can be sitting on your couch eating some cheddar beer 0:03:46.920 --> 0:03:49.760 battered bread, which is my favorite football food personally, and 0:03:49.840 --> 0:03:52.000 just place a bet with your fingertips. And here's the 0:03:52.000 --> 0:03:54.960 best part. 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To be able 0:04:18.160 --> 0:04:20.520 to place your risk free one hundred dollars bet, you 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:22.400 must be twenty one years or older, And although you 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.320 can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must 0:04:25.360 --> 0:04:26.800 be in the state of New Jersey to place a 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:30.040 sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list 0:04:30.080 --> 0:04:32.840 of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem, 0:04:33.000 --> 0:04:35.480 called one eight hundred gambler all right, And so we're 0:04:35.480 --> 0:04:37.480 each going to be giving three picks here. And since 0:04:37.520 --> 0:04:40.440 this is our inaugural weekly pick show, I kind of 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:42.520 wanted to come up with a catchy name for this 0:04:42.560 --> 0:04:45.480 first segment. I was thinking something with six, you know, 0:04:45.600 --> 0:04:48.120 since we're both doing three picks, and as my daughter 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:51.200 recently informed me, three plus three is in fact six, 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:54.400 So I was thinking maybe like six feet under. But 0:04:55.120 --> 0:04:56.680 I feel like that's a bet omen right, I mean, 0:04:56.839 --> 0:04:57.600 it's got to be better. 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.120 Yeah, that might be a bad open. I mean, the 0:04:59.160 --> 0:05:03.359 classic go for betting, for anything betting related for the NFL, 0:05:03.480 --> 0:05:05.760 especially if it's six picks, would be the Pick six. 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:09.320 Oh, the pick six. That would be I'm not even kidding. 0:05:09.560 --> 0:05:11.680 I was gonna come up with something totally lame. The 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:13.839 pick six it is. We're going with that for the 0:05:13.880 --> 0:05:17.080 pick six. You're I mean, look, I know all of 0:05:17.120 --> 0:05:19.719 our former guests listen to this, but you're officially my 0:05:19.760 --> 0:05:22.359 favorite guest because you you have done that. And just 0:05:22.400 --> 0:05:24.440 to be clear, I mean, unless you know, we make 0:05:24.480 --> 0:05:26.200 some sort of wager for you to be my co 0:05:26.279 --> 0:05:28.360 host on this, like you're not going to be appearing 0:05:28.400 --> 0:05:31.440 every single show, but I'm keeping that already. Pick six 0:05:31.480 --> 0:05:33.920 that's our first part. You can, all right, So well done. 0:05:34.040 --> 0:05:36.320 I digress a little bit, but let's get going with 0:05:36.440 --> 0:05:39.440 the first edition of Pick six. I love it. For 0:05:39.520 --> 0:05:41.719 all odds, we're going to be using the consensus odds 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:44.279 at bettingpros dot com, which, as I've told you before, 0:05:44.680 --> 0:05:47.040 aggregates the odds available in the market, so you might 0:05:47.040 --> 0:05:49.279 see one or two different odds across the various sports 0:05:49.279 --> 0:05:51.400 book But for our purposes, we're going to be using 0:05:51.400 --> 0:05:53.799 the consensus picks. So, Ian, why don't you go ahead 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.320 start us off? What's your what's your top bet? All right? 0:05:56.400 --> 0:05:58.720 So, I yeah, the first pick. I do have to 0:05:58.760 --> 0:06:00.440 put a little bit of an asterisk next because I'm 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:04.279 a little bit biased. I am a diehard Atlanta Falcons fan. Now, 0:06:04.560 --> 0:06:07.920 the first rule in betting is don't follow your heart, 0:06:07.960 --> 0:06:10.240 don't be biased, but I can't really help it, especially 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:13.720 when it comes to NFL. But also another little lastix. 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:16.880 So Falcons right now are plus four against the Vikings. 0:06:17.120 --> 0:06:19.240 But I just read about a half an hour ago 0:06:19.279 --> 0:06:22.280 that Julio Jones may not play if he doesn't get 0:06:22.320 --> 0:06:24.840 that contract done before Sunday. So if he doesn't play, 0:06:24.920 --> 0:06:26.880 I have the right to withdraw this bet, even though 0:06:26.920 --> 0:06:27.359 I guess. 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.560 I'm sorry, I'm sorry. No, we will not honor that. 0:06:30.839 --> 0:06:33.039 This is official. This is official to be fair. I 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:35.480 did see that as well. It read to me much 0:06:35.520 --> 0:06:38.440 more of a I don't know. I mean, I'm optimistic 0:06:38.520 --> 0:06:40.560 this is gonna get done. But if I can't, I 0:06:40.600 --> 0:06:42.679 can't say for certain, then I'm gonna suit up. Sounded 0:06:42.800 --> 0:06:44.600 it didn't sound to me like there's a real risk 0:06:44.640 --> 0:06:47.400 of him missing. But I get it, you know, I 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:50.400 feel you, and in fact, I'll reverse course and if 0:06:50.440 --> 0:06:52.400 in fact he does miss the game, I'll let you out. 0:06:53.000 --> 0:06:54.760 I mean, I've already got my bet locked in, so 0:06:55.040 --> 0:06:58.960 I'm set either way. So they're plus four at the Vikings. Now. 0:06:59.160 --> 0:07:01.240 The Falcons obviously had an off year last year, but 0:07:01.240 --> 0:07:04.120 their top two defensive players were out, got hurt and 0:07:04.160 --> 0:07:06.520 put on ir the very first week in Ricardo Allen 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:09.600 and and Dion Jones, so I expect them to have 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:11.720 a bounce back year this year. I'm a little bit 0:07:11.720 --> 0:07:14.640 worried because kind of their strength on offense is obviously 0:07:14.680 --> 0:07:17.600 the passing, the Vikings strength on defense is their past defense, 0:07:17.640 --> 0:07:20.160 So that does worry me a little bit. But as 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.640 a Falcons fan, I can see the classic thing happening 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:24.600 of them losing on a last second field goal. But 0:07:24.600 --> 0:07:26.640 if they do, if they do, the plus four covers it. 0:07:26.720 --> 0:07:28.880 So I like Atlanta. I think I'm gonna back them 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:30.040 quite a bit this year. I think this is a 0:07:30.080 --> 0:07:32.200 big bounce back for them this year, and I love them. 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:34.400 Plus four at Minnesota. 0:07:33.800 --> 0:07:36.840 Yeah, getting certainly getting past the key number of three. 0:07:36.920 --> 0:07:40.320 Exact difference, Yeah, for sure. You know, I looked at it. 0:07:40.720 --> 0:07:42.080 I was a little worried. It was a game that 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:44.280 I didn't really feel comfortable either way. If I if 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:45.840 I had to make a pick, it would be on 0:07:45.880 --> 0:07:48.880 the Falcons. But you know that looking at the preseason, 0:07:48.960 --> 0:07:50.520 I try not to take too much from it. The 0:07:50.600 --> 0:07:52.840 offensive line just kind of seemed a little bit out 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:55.280 of sync and on the road in this first game. 0:07:55.440 --> 0:07:57.880 I like the Vikings too, I'm pretty high on them. 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.320 Generally I would go with the Falcons by I was 0:08:00.360 --> 0:08:02.680 a little less sure of it. Now you're a Falcons fan, 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:05.480 I'm sure you've got, you know, probably more insight into 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.480 even the team than I do. But it struck me 0:08:07.520 --> 0:08:09.720 as a little worse. We did know, we were talking 0:08:09.720 --> 0:08:12.560 about it before we recorded that. It moved. The line moved. 0:08:12.560 --> 0:08:14.360 They were originally getting three and a half, right, and 0:08:14.360 --> 0:08:16.200 you were going to take them there too as well, Right. 0:08:16.080 --> 0:08:18.200 That's right. Yeah, as soon as I saw anything over three, 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:19.560 that's kind of what I pounced on. It might have 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:22.120 moved before because of that Julio Jones news that just 0:08:22.160 --> 0:08:24.520 came out today, but yeah, you said it. I mean, 0:08:24.560 --> 0:08:26.280 if one thing is gonna lose this bet, it's gonna 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:28.640 be the Falcons offensive line. That's that's their biggest week 0:08:28.640 --> 0:08:31.200 point all seasons. So they got a couple of rookies 0:08:31.240 --> 0:08:33.559 that will be starting. Hopefully they can pull through for them. 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:36.960 But if it's overfield goal, I like the Falcons here. 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:39.520 No, I think overfield goal is certainly you know, again 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.880 that key number of three is certainly something they take 0:08:42.920 --> 0:08:44.679 a look at. And in fact, you know I mentioned 0:08:44.679 --> 0:08:46.480 betting pros dot Com. One of the things that we 0:08:46.520 --> 0:08:49.120 do is we have a bunch of betting experts, sports 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:51.679 betting experts that make their picks, and right now, fifty 0:08:51.679 --> 0:08:53.760 eight percent are with you. They're on the side they're 0:08:53.760 --> 0:08:56.520 going with the Falcons. So most likely that's gonna be 0:08:56.559 --> 0:08:59.680 a good pick. But for me, it's it's close enough 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:01.920 where I is a little unsure. It is a game 0:09:01.920 --> 0:09:04.880 that I'm really interested to watch from an NFL perspective, 0:09:04.920 --> 0:09:06.760 just because both of these teams I think have a 0:09:06.840 --> 0:09:09.079 chance to be really interesting this year. So one way 0:09:09.120 --> 0:09:12.079 or another, I'll be watching for me my number one pick. 0:09:12.440 --> 0:09:15.000 And I just feel like when I say this, I 0:09:15.040 --> 0:09:17.640 almost I can't get off it because I've been trying 0:09:17.640 --> 0:09:19.560 to push myself off it. But I can't because I 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:22.320 like it. You may not. It is the Chiefs at 0:09:22.320 --> 0:09:25.880 the Jaguars, and I like actually the Jaguars getting three. 0:09:26.000 --> 0:09:29.040 I know, I believe me. I am not in the 0:09:29.080 --> 0:09:31.160 majority on this one, but I've been looking at this 0:09:31.240 --> 0:09:33.520 game closely and kind of go through it, you know. 0:09:33.760 --> 0:09:35.080 For the record, By the way, I will say that 0:09:35.120 --> 0:09:37.320 my boss basically told me that he really loves the 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.520 chief with the spread. So this may actually be my 0:09:39.600 --> 0:09:41.640 last episode. And Ian, since you came up with the 0:09:41.760 --> 0:09:44.079 last segment, you can probably just take over for me 0:09:44.120 --> 0:09:45.959 if you're cool with that. But look, this is how 0:09:46.000 --> 0:09:48.640 I generally approach making my game picks. Okay. I do 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:50.760 my own projections for the game, and I come up 0:09:50.800 --> 0:09:52.560 with what I think the spread and the over under 0:09:52.600 --> 0:09:54.719 ought to be, and when the numbers are off by 0:09:54.800 --> 0:09:56.960 anything more than like a point or two, I then 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:58.920 kind of start looking and how the game is being 0:09:58.960 --> 0:10:01.360 bet Now I talked to about this on Monday. But 0:10:01.400 --> 0:10:03.920 the spread opened originally as the Chiefs laying five, so 0:10:04.000 --> 0:10:06.079 it's moved about a point and a half since it 0:10:06.200 --> 0:10:08.720 first opened months ago. Now, some of that is news 0:10:08.760 --> 0:10:10.800 about Tyreek Hill, right, everybody thought that he was going 0:10:10.880 --> 0:10:13.360 to get suspended, and then once he wasn't, the spread 0:10:13.400 --> 0:10:15.480 closed a little bit. But again, as we talked about, 0:10:16.160 --> 0:10:18.680 players like wide receivers and running backs don't usually have 0:10:18.800 --> 0:10:20.880 that much of an impact on the spread. So you know, 0:10:20.920 --> 0:10:23.319 when it went from five, you know, it never rebounded 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:24.959 when we knew that Hill was going to play. So 0:10:25.000 --> 0:10:26.840 when you look at the amount of money that's being bet, 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:29.480 you can see that roughly seventy percent of the number 0:10:29.480 --> 0:10:31.920 of bets coming in here are being placed on the Chiefs, 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:34.280 but the actual amount of money that's being bet is 0:10:34.360 --> 0:10:36.960 relatively split down the middle. And so when something like 0:10:37.000 --> 0:10:40.160 that happens, that almost is always an indication that sharpetters 0:10:40.200 --> 0:10:42.880 are betting against the public. So even though the public 0:10:42.920 --> 0:10:45.240 here is backing the Chiefs, the line has dropped and 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:48.360 has not rebounded from where it was now in week one. 0:10:48.480 --> 0:10:50.520 It's a little hard to read into that. As much 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.480 as I'm trying to do here because the lines have 0:10:52.559 --> 0:10:54.520 been out forever, so there's a lot of money that's 0:10:54.559 --> 0:10:57.200 been coming in forever. But still the fact that the 0:10:57.200 --> 0:10:59.880 line never rebounded suggests to me that there is some 0:11:00.000 --> 0:11:02.319 smart money coming in on the Jags. And really, again, 0:11:02.360 --> 0:11:04.600 as I talked about this with Sean Green on our 0:11:04.679 --> 0:11:08.520 last show, and we just mentioned, actually there are key numbers, right, 0:11:08.600 --> 0:11:11.280 There's three is a key number. Seven is a key number. 0:11:11.320 --> 0:11:13.679 Thirty percent of all games over the last fifteen years 0:11:13.760 --> 0:11:16.560 or so have ended with exactly a three or seven 0:11:16.559 --> 0:11:19.559 margin of victory. So when you get above or below 0:11:19.600 --> 0:11:21.640 one of those numbers, I get a little bit enticed. 0:11:21.679 --> 0:11:24.760 And so here at three and a half, I'm kind 0:11:24.800 --> 0:11:28.720 of excited. I've been talking myself into the Jags all preseason. 0:11:28.760 --> 0:11:31.080 I think the offense is gonna be much improved with 0:11:31.200 --> 0:11:34.160 any quarterback not named Blake Bordoles, and with Fournette slimmer 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.520 and looking motivated, I think the defense is still going 0:11:36.559 --> 0:11:38.640 to be strong. They match up pretty well with the Chiefs, 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:40.760 given that they have one of the true shutdown corners 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:42.760 in Jalen Ramsey when he's on at least, and I 0:11:42.760 --> 0:11:44.760 think this is gonna be a close game, So I'm 0:11:44.800 --> 0:11:46.600 gonna take it when you get that extra half a 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:49.520 point at minus one fourteen. So go ahead tell me 0:11:49.520 --> 0:11:50.120 why I'm wrong. 0:11:50.520 --> 0:11:52.800 No, I actually don't hate that pick, but I mean so, 0:11:53.040 --> 0:11:54.920 like you said, the public's gonna be on the Chiefs, 0:11:54.960 --> 0:11:56.960 because when you look at it, it almost seems like just 0:11:57.040 --> 0:11:58.480 three and a half is too good to be true 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:00.520 to bet on the Chiefs dudging by how good they 0:12:00.520 --> 0:12:02.760 were last season. But the points you made about the 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:05.320 Jaguars were a lot of things that I've been thinking 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:07.520 as well. I think they are gonna have a bounce 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:09.920 back year similar to the Falcons. If you remember, hitting 0:12:09.920 --> 0:12:11.840 into the last season, the Jaguars were a dark horse 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:14.200 pick for a lot of people to win the Super Bowl. Obviously, 0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:16.319 they you know, didn't live up to those expectations. I 0:12:16.320 --> 0:12:19.320 think they finished five and eleven, But I do think 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:21.079 they are gonna have a bounce back year this year. 0:12:21.080 --> 0:12:23.360 And I think, just as a caveat for basically oli 0:12:23.400 --> 0:12:25.240 our picks in Week one, this is Week one, so 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:28.600 we have no idea what we're gonna see from these teams. 0:12:28.920 --> 0:12:32.800 So there's certain games that there's teams that I'm interested. 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:35.640 I would need to see how they're looking and how 0:12:35.679 --> 0:12:38.080 they're gonna perform this year before I place any money 0:12:38.080 --> 0:12:40.439 on it. So that's why I'm not picking the Jaguars myself. 0:12:40.640 --> 0:12:42.319 But I'm also not gonna pick the Chiefs because the 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:44.240 Jaguars are just one of those teams that I want 0:12:44.280 --> 0:12:45.760 to see before I put my money on it. So 0:12:45.840 --> 0:12:48.880 I don't hate the bet, especially because I don't know 0:12:48.960 --> 0:12:51.200 the three and a half. It seems. I don't like 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.880 calling betting lines traps, but if there is a trap line, 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:55.720 it would be this one. It Chiefs seem too. 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.920 Easy, right, and you know again, let's just make it clear, Okay. 0:12:58.960 --> 0:13:01.320 First of all, I mentioned the percentage of experts that 0:13:01.320 --> 0:13:03.760 were on your side in the last pick. Sixty six 0:13:03.800 --> 0:13:06.040 percent of experts are siding with the Chiefs here langing 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:07.160 the three and a half. So I will put that 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:10.360 out there. And of course, I mean, I'm gonna be honest. 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:14.040 I'm absolutely terrified to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid's record, 0:13:14.080 --> 0:13:16.320 of course, whenever you know his record off a bye 0:13:16.360 --> 0:13:18.200 is well known. He's usually good in first game, so 0:13:18.240 --> 0:13:21.360 there are plenty of factors that make me nervous. But 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:24.000 I honestly, I just think that this is gonna be 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:26.240 a different Jaguars team. I think playing at home to 0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.280 open the season, I think the spread, you know, once 0:13:29.320 --> 0:13:33.000 it got past once it stayed above three. Really, I 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:35.760 just it's something where I feel like it's gonna be 0:13:35.840 --> 0:13:37.319 enough that the Jaguars are gonna pull it out. But 0:13:37.320 --> 0:13:38.960 I'm willing to be on an island here a little bit. 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:40.760 So all right, what's your second pick? 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:42.840 Yeah, so my second pick and actually my one of 0:13:42.840 --> 0:13:44.760 my main points, but my second pick actually helps, oh, 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:46.719 your Jaguars pick as well. So my second pick is 0:13:46.720 --> 0:13:50.040 going to be the Buccaneers minus one over the forty 0:13:50.120 --> 0:13:52.200 nine ers. And that point is what it's like to 0:13:52.200 --> 0:13:55.360 play in Florida in September. So the Jacksonville has that 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:57.880 advantage playing at home in Florida in September. Tampa Bay 0:13:57.920 --> 0:14:00.000 has that advantage as well. It's just humid, it's grown. 0:14:00.760 --> 0:14:02.800 Even teams like Miami. I'd like to see what they're 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:04.800 gonna do in September because I don't have the exact 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:06.480 numbers in front of me, but something tells me that 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:09.360 Florida teams have a good spread record in the month 0:14:09.400 --> 0:14:13.160 of September, and I think that just September's in Florida's 0:14:13.160 --> 0:14:16.920 can can be tough, So Buccaneers it's because they're a 0:14:17.240 --> 0:14:20.320 Falcon divisional opponent, it's it could I die a little 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:22.480 inside every time I pick a different NFC South team. 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:25.560 But I think the Buccaneers are going to do better 0:14:25.560 --> 0:14:26.880 than a lot of people think. And I think the 0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:28.480 forty nine ers are going to do worse than a 0:14:28.520 --> 0:14:31.200 lot of people think. A lot of people are high 0:14:31.280 --> 0:14:32.920 up on the forty nine ers this year, and they 0:14:32.960 --> 0:14:34.640 were heading into last year as well. I think a 0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:37.720 lot of people just have high hopes for Jimmy Garoppolo. 0:14:37.840 --> 0:14:39.760 But I don't see it. I mean, he had a 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:42.000 couple of good what was it might even just been 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:44.520 preseason when he was with the Patriots, had a couple 0:14:44.520 --> 0:14:46.400 of good games. Maybe it's regular season. I kind of 0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:46.960 forget now, But. 0:14:47.000 --> 0:14:48.400 Yeah, I think he played a couple of games in 0:14:48.400 --> 0:14:51.000 the regular season that year where I remember then he 0:14:51.040 --> 0:14:53.400 got injured and then Jacoby Brissett came in and they 0:14:53.560 --> 0:14:55.920 won against the Texans or something like that. Yeah, yeah, 0:14:55.960 --> 0:14:58.640 he played a few games, but nothing really substantial in 0:14:58.680 --> 0:14:59.400 the regular season. 0:14:59.480 --> 0:15:03.040 Yeah, And but I just think that most quarterbacks in 0:15:03.040 --> 0:15:04.600 the NFL are going to have at least some sort 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:06.880 of success inside the Patriots system. So I'm just not 0:15:07.040 --> 0:15:08.920 sold on him. Before he got hurt. Last year, he 0:15:08.960 --> 0:15:11.240 didn't look great. He didn't look great in the preseason. 0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:14.680 This year, I'm not high up on Jimmy Garoppolo at all. 0:15:15.000 --> 0:15:17.080 I think the Buccaneers at home, and I think they're 0:15:17.120 --> 0:15:19.240 improved from last year. I mean, they still have some 0:15:19.320 --> 0:15:21.520 offensive weapons as well, like they of course they have 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.800 Mike Evans. I think Chris Godwin's gonna have a big year. 0:15:23.800 --> 0:15:25.240 They have a couple of good running backs in Peyton 0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.120 Barber and Ronald Jones. I just think Tampa Bay at 0:15:28.120 --> 0:15:30.960 home against a West Coast forty nine ers team that 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.040 I'm not high on. I think I think that's a 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:34.000 game Tampa is gonna win. 0:15:34.080 --> 0:15:36.280 Out of curiosity, you know, we know about the whole 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:39.480 West Coast teams playing on the East Coast. Do you 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:41.800 think that that holds true even for Week one or 0:15:41.880 --> 0:15:43.920 do you think that that's more something for in the season. 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:46.600 I think it holds true, but not as much as 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:49.040 it does as would mid season and generally just road 0:15:49.040 --> 0:15:51.040 teams as a whole. I'm betting on a lot of 0:15:51.120 --> 0:15:54.200 road teams actually other than the Bucks. The Bucks are home, 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:55.760 but I'm betting on a lot of road teams week 0:15:55.760 --> 0:15:58.280 one because I just don't think it has as big 0:15:58.560 --> 0:16:02.120 of an effect as it does mid or late season, 0:16:02.320 --> 0:16:04.680 just because by then they're just they're they've been traveling 0:16:04.680 --> 0:16:07.720 all year, they're tired, they're hurt. Week one, it doesn't 0:16:07.720 --> 0:16:09.400 have as big an effect. But I would still say 0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:11.920 it does have an effect that's at least worth mentioning. 0:16:12.080 --> 0:16:13.520 Yeah, I mean, I think it's a good bed. Fifty 0:16:13.520 --> 0:16:15.600 eight percent of experts are with you. This was not 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.000 a game I had a good feel for it, just because, look, 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:21.360 you mentioned it before. Week one is really tough because 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:23.600 we really don't know what we're gonna see, and and 0:16:23.680 --> 0:16:26.800 Garoppolo looked horrific. You heard the practice reports, and then 0:16:26.840 --> 0:16:29.080 he looked passable in week three of the preseason, so 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.480 we really don't know. This is one where if I 0:16:31.600 --> 0:16:33.640 was forced to make a pick, I would take the 0:16:33.680 --> 0:16:36.600 Bucks laying one. But it's a game that I really 0:16:36.600 --> 0:16:38.400