1
00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,400
Speaker 1: Hey there, everyone, and welcome back to another episode of

2
00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:13,880
Speaker 1: the Betting Pros NFL podcast, brought to you by bet MGM.

3
00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:16,040
Speaker 1: I'm your host, Dan Harris and you can find me

4
00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:19,119
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Dan Harris Adi. It is finally time

5
00:00:19,560 --> 00:00:22,439
Speaker 1: after months of waiting, Week one of the NFL is here.

6
00:00:23,000 --> 00:00:25,120
Speaker 1: So today, as we're going to be doing every Thursday

7
00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,360
Speaker 1: when we record, we're going to talk about some of

8
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,160
Speaker 1: our best bets, either against the spread or over unders.

9
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,599
Speaker 1: We'll give you a bet to avoid, and then we're

10
00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:35,160
Speaker 1: gonna give you our favorite player prop bet for the week.

11
00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:37,519
Speaker 1: And with me today to break it all down is

12
00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:40,360
Speaker 1: Ian McMillan, a writer over at oddshark dot com. Now

13
00:00:40,400 --> 00:00:42,479
Speaker 1: I try to butter up all of our guests just

14
00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,560
Speaker 1: so they'll agree with me regardless of what I say,

15
00:00:44,840 --> 00:00:47,800
Speaker 1: So make of this what you will. But Ian is crazy,

16
00:00:48,000 --> 00:00:50,080
Speaker 1: and I mean that in a really good way. We're

17
00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:51,960
Speaker 1: gonna be talking about Week one of the NFL on

18
00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,640
Speaker 1: this show. But if I wanted him to handicap some

19
00:00:54,760 --> 00:00:57,480
Speaker 1: UFC matches, he'd be all over it. What did you

20
00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:59,600
Speaker 1: want to bet on the Fortnite World Cup last month?

21
00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:02,240
Speaker 1: Because he broke down all the betting odds So if

22
00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,000
Speaker 1: you're feeling really good about your son's soccer matchup or

23
00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:07,399
Speaker 1: something this weekend like I am, then just reach out

24
00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,600
Speaker 1: to Ian because he's probably gonna be able to give

25
00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,080
Speaker 1: you some under the Raider player props. You can find

26
00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,280
Speaker 1: him on Twitter at Ian mac os That's IAI n

27
00:01:16,720 --> 00:01:17,600
Speaker 1: mac os Ian.

28
00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,080
Speaker 2: How's it going, man, it's going great things for having

29
00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:22,559
Speaker 2: me on, What a great intro. You are absolutely correct.

30
00:01:22,560 --> 00:01:24,120
Speaker 2: If I can find a way to make some money

31
00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:25,959
Speaker 2: betting on anything, I will do it.

32
00:01:26,520 --> 00:01:28,720
Speaker 1: So I mean legitimately with my kid, Like the over

33
00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: under for him is half a goal. I mean the

34
00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 1: under is at minus one thirty, the overs at plus

35
00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:36,160
Speaker 1: one oh five. Any insight there, I'm gonna bring you

36
00:01:36,160 --> 00:01:36,520
Speaker 1: over here.

37
00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,440
Speaker 2: Depends on the weather a couple other factors, but either way,

38
00:01:40,440 --> 00:01:41,600
Speaker 2: I think I like the over on that.

39
00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:45,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. I've seen him play and that's a loser, all right, buddy.

40
00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:47,160
Speaker 1: He has been playing for two years. He has yet

41
00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:48,960
Speaker 1: to score a goal. But we don't know. My expert

42
00:01:49,040 --> 00:01:51,440
Speaker 1: coaching may come into play, so look, before we get

43
00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:53,520
Speaker 1: into it, I do want to announce the winner of

44
00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:58,200
Speaker 1: our August contest for the autographed Christian McCaffrey helmet. Congratulations

45
00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:01,120
Speaker 1: to George from Egg Harbor City, New Jersey, and we've

46
00:02:01,160 --> 00:02:03,720
Speaker 1: already notified George by email, so he will be getting

47
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,040
Speaker 1: the helmet soon enough. Now, if you did not win,

48
00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,760
Speaker 1: which is pretty much everyone other than George, dry your

49
00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:12,320
Speaker 1: eyes because we are running another contest for September. If

50
00:02:12,360 --> 00:02:14,920
Speaker 1: you're sad about missing out on the McCaffrey helmet, not

51
00:02:15,040 --> 00:02:18,280
Speaker 1: to worry because we've got an autographed Alvin Kamara helmet

52
00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,560
Speaker 1: giveaway for September. It's the same rules as before. Leave

53
00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,080
Speaker 1: a review for the show on iTunes or Stitcher and

54
00:02:24,160 --> 00:02:27,600
Speaker 1: send a screenshot of that review to contest at bettingpros

55
00:02:27,600 --> 00:02:30,560
Speaker 1: dot com. And if you have already screenshotted and sent

56
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,600
Speaker 1: in your review, then great, you are automatically entered into

57
00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:36,720
Speaker 1: this month and all future months contests. It's a great

58
00:02:36,800 --> 00:02:39,320
Speaker 1: job way to support the show and potentially win prizes.

59
00:02:39,560 --> 00:02:41,800
Speaker 1: You're doing life right, all right. So, as I said,

60
00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,760
Speaker 1: Ian and I are going to give our thoughts on

61
00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:46,280
Speaker 1: some bets for week one, but I will note at

62
00:02:46,320 --> 00:02:49,200
Speaker 1: the outset that we are recording this shortly before kickoff

63
00:02:49,240 --> 00:02:51,680
Speaker 1: of the Bears Packers game, so we aren't going to

64
00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:54,760
Speaker 1: be referencing it anyway, But just so you know, however,

65
00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:56,960
Speaker 1: it turned out that is exactly how we would have

66
00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:58,959
Speaker 1: picked it had it been fair for us to do so.

67
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,240
Speaker 1: So I'm going to take credit this and I'll force

68
00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:03,919
Speaker 1: I into as well. So Ian, We're gonna get started

69
00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:05,800
Speaker 1: with some of our favorite bets for Week one, but

70
00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:07,360
Speaker 1: before we do, I do want to talk to you

71
00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,520
Speaker 1: guys about one of the sponsors of today's show, bet MGM,

72
00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:14,519
Speaker 1: and specifically the betmgm Sports App. There was a time

73
00:03:14,720 --> 00:03:16,760
Speaker 1: not so long ago where to place a bet on

74
00:03:16,800 --> 00:03:19,600
Speaker 1: a sporting event you needed to head out to Las Vegas.

75
00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,400
Speaker 1: But now, as you surely know, states are legalizing sports

76
00:03:22,440 --> 00:03:24,640
Speaker 1: betting at a rapid pace, and there are plenty of

77
00:03:24,680 --> 00:03:26,799
Speaker 1: spots to go to in the country where you can

78
00:03:26,919 --> 00:03:29,160
Speaker 1: just walk in and place a bet. But if you

79
00:03:29,160 --> 00:03:30,960
Speaker 1: are in New Jersey, you can do that from the

80
00:03:31,000 --> 00:03:33,160
Speaker 1: comfort of your home, because all you need to do

81
00:03:33,200 --> 00:03:35,440
Speaker 1: to place a bet is to download the bet mgm

82
00:03:35,520 --> 00:03:38,000
Speaker 1: Sports app right on your phone. You can bet on

83
00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,560
Speaker 1: pretty much any sporting event you want, including of course,

84
00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:44,240
Speaker 1: any NFL game this week. Legitimately, on NFL Sunday, you

85
00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:46,880
Speaker 1: can be sitting on your couch eating some cheddar beer

86
00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,760
Speaker 1: battered bread, which is my favorite football food personally, and

87
00:03:49,840 --> 00:03:52,000
Speaker 1: just place a bet with your fingertips. And here's the

88
00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,960
Speaker 1: best part. If you sign up to bet MGM sports

89
00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,080
Speaker 1: and you use our offer code Harris, that is my

90
00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:00,960
Speaker 1: last name, then not only can you bet on sports

91
00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:03,200
Speaker 1: from your phone, but your first wager of up to

92
00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:07,240
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars is risk free. Seriously, use our promo code.

93
00:04:07,440 --> 00:04:10,240
Speaker 1: Place a wager of twenty five dollars or more on

94
00:04:10,280 --> 00:04:13,080
Speaker 1: your first bet, and if you lose, bet MGM is

95
00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,480
Speaker 1: going to credit your account up to one hundred dollars

96
00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,159
Speaker 1: in cash. Again, that's promo code Harris. To be able

97
00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:20,520
Speaker 1: to place your risk free one hundred dollars bet, you

98
00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:22,400
Speaker 1: must be twenty one years or older, And although you

99
00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,320
Speaker 1: can sign up an easily deposit money anywhere, you must

100
00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:26,800
Speaker 1: be in the state of New Jersey to place a

101
00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,040
Speaker 1: sports bet. Visit betmgm dot com for the full list

102
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,840
Speaker 1: of terms and conditions. And if you've got a gambling problem,

103
00:04:33,000 --> 00:04:35,480
Speaker 1: called one eight hundred gambler all right, And so we're

104
00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:37,480
Speaker 1: each going to be giving three picks here. And since

105
00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:40,440
Speaker 1: this is our inaugural weekly pick show, I kind of

106
00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:42,520
Speaker 1: wanted to come up with a catchy name for this

107
00:04:42,560 --> 00:04:45,480
Speaker 1: first segment. I was thinking something with six, you know,

108
00:04:45,600 --> 00:04:48,120
Speaker 1: since we're both doing three picks, and as my daughter

109
00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,200
Speaker 1: recently informed me, three plus three is in fact six,

110
00:04:51,320 --> 00:04:54,400
Speaker 1: So I was thinking maybe like six feet under. But

111
00:04:55,120 --> 00:04:56,680
Speaker 1: I feel like that's a bet omen right, I mean,

112
00:04:56,839 --> 00:04:57,600
Speaker 1: it's got to be better.

113
00:04:57,720 --> 00:04:59,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, that might be a bad open. I mean, the

114
00:04:59,160 --> 00:05:03,359
Speaker 2: classic go for betting, for anything betting related for the NFL,

115
00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:05,760
Speaker 2: especially if it's six picks, would be the Pick six.

116
00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 1: Oh, the pick six. That would be I'm not even kidding.

117
00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:11,680
Speaker 1: I was gonna come up with something totally lame. The

118
00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:13,839
Speaker 1: pick six it is. We're going with that for the

119
00:05:13,880 --> 00:05:17,080
Speaker 1: pick six. You're I mean, look, I know all of

120
00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:19,719
Speaker 1: our former guests listen to this, but you're officially my

121
00:05:19,760 --> 00:05:22,359
Speaker 1: favorite guest because you you have done that. And just

122
00:05:22,400 --> 00:05:24,440
Speaker 1: to be clear, I mean, unless you know, we make

123
00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,200
Speaker 1: some sort of wager for you to be my co

124
00:05:26,279 --> 00:05:28,360
Speaker 1: host on this, like you're not going to be appearing

125
00:05:28,400 --> 00:05:31,440
Speaker 1: every single show, but I'm keeping that already. Pick six

126
00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,920
Speaker 1: that's our first part. You can, all right, So well done.

127
00:05:34,040 --> 00:05:36,320
Speaker 1: I digress a little bit, but let's get going with

128
00:05:36,440 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 1: the first edition of Pick six. I love it. For

129
00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:41,719
Speaker 1: all odds, we're going to be using the consensus odds

130
00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:44,279
Speaker 1: at bettingpros dot com, which, as I've told you before,

131
00:05:44,680 --> 00:05:47,040
Speaker 1: aggregates the odds available in the market, so you might

132
00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:49,279
Speaker 1: see one or two different odds across the various sports

133
00:05:49,279 --> 00:05:51,400
Speaker 1: book But for our purposes, we're going to be using

134
00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:53,799
Speaker 1: the consensus picks. So, Ian, why don't you go ahead

135
00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,320
Speaker 1: start us off? What's your what's your top bet? All right?

136
00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,720
Speaker 2: So, I yeah, the first pick. I do have to

137
00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:00,440
Speaker 2: put a little bit of an asterisk next because I'm

138
00:06:00,440 --> 00:06:04,279
Speaker 2: a little bit biased. I am a diehard Atlanta Falcons fan. Now,

139
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:07,920
Speaker 2: the first rule in betting is don't follow your heart,

140
00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:10,240
Speaker 2: don't be biased, but I can't really help it, especially

141
00:06:10,240 --> 00:06:13,720
Speaker 2: when it comes to NFL. But also another little lastix.

142
00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:16,880
Speaker 2: So Falcons right now are plus four against the Vikings.

143
00:06:17,120 --> 00:06:19,240
Speaker 2: But I just read about a half an hour ago

144
00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:22,280
Speaker 2: that Julio Jones may not play if he doesn't get

145
00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,840
Speaker 2: that contract done before Sunday. So if he doesn't play,

146
00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:26,880
Speaker 2: I have the right to withdraw this bet, even though

147
00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:27,359
Speaker 2: I guess.

148
00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:30,560
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, I'm sorry. No, we will not honor that.

149
00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:33,039
Speaker 1: This is official. This is official to be fair. I

150
00:06:33,040 --> 00:06:35,480
Speaker 1: did see that as well. It read to me much

151
00:06:35,520 --> 00:06:38,440
Speaker 1: more of a I don't know. I mean, I'm optimistic

152
00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:40,560
Speaker 1: this is gonna get done. But if I can't, I

153
00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,679
Speaker 1: can't say for certain, then I'm gonna suit up. Sounded

154
00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,600
Speaker 1: it didn't sound to me like there's a real risk

155
00:06:44,640 --> 00:06:47,400
Speaker 1: of him missing. But I get it, you know, I

156
00:06:48,160 --> 00:06:50,400
Speaker 1: feel you, and in fact, I'll reverse course and if

157
00:06:50,440 --> 00:06:52,400
Speaker 1: in fact he does miss the game, I'll let you out.

158
00:06:53,000 --> 00:06:54,760
Speaker 2: I mean, I've already got my bet locked in, so

159
00:06:55,040 --> 00:06:58,960
Speaker 2: I'm set either way. So they're plus four at the Vikings. Now.

160
00:06:59,160 --> 00:07:01,240
Speaker 2: The Falcons obviously had an off year last year, but

161
00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:04,120
Speaker 2: their top two defensive players were out, got hurt and

162
00:07:04,160 --> 00:07:06,520
Speaker 2: put on ir the very first week in Ricardo Allen

163
00:07:06,600 --> 00:07:09,600
Speaker 2: and and Dion Jones, so I expect them to have

164
00:07:09,680 --> 00:07:11,720
Speaker 2: a bounce back year this year. I'm a little bit

165
00:07:11,720 --> 00:07:14,640
Speaker 2: worried because kind of their strength on offense is obviously

166
00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:17,600
Speaker 2: the passing, the Vikings strength on defense is their past defense,

167
00:07:17,640 --> 00:07:20,160
Speaker 2: So that does worry me a little bit. But as

168
00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,640
Speaker 2: a Falcons fan, I can see the classic thing happening

169
00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:24,600
Speaker 2: of them losing on a last second field goal. But

170
00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:26,640
Speaker 2: if they do, if they do, the plus four covers it.

171
00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:28,880
Speaker 2: So I like Atlanta. I think I'm gonna back them

172
00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 2: quite a bit this year. I think this is a

173
00:07:30,080 --> 00:07:32,200
Speaker 2: big bounce back for them this year, and I love them.

174
00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,400
Speaker 2: Plus four at Minnesota.

175
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, getting certainly getting past the key number of three.

176
00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:40,320
Speaker 1: Exact difference, Yeah, for sure. You know, I looked at it.

177
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:42,080
Speaker 1: I was a little worried. It was a game that

178
00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:44,280
Speaker 1: I didn't really feel comfortable either way. If I if

179
00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:45,840
Speaker 1: I had to make a pick, it would be on

180
00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:48,880
Speaker 1: the Falcons. But you know that looking at the preseason,

181
00:07:48,960 --> 00:07:50,520
Speaker 1: I try not to take too much from it. The

182
00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:52,840
Speaker 1: offensive line just kind of seemed a little bit out

183
00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:55,280
Speaker 1: of sync and on the road in this first game.

184
00:07:55,440 --> 00:07:57,880
Speaker 1: I like the Vikings too, I'm pretty high on them.

185
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,320
Speaker 1: Generally I would go with the Falcons by I was

186
00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,680
Speaker 1: a little less sure of it. Now you're a Falcons fan,

187
00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,480
Speaker 1: I'm sure you've got, you know, probably more insight into

188
00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:07,480
Speaker 1: even the team than I do. But it struck me

189
00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,720
Speaker 1: as a little worse. We did know, we were talking

190
00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:12,560
Speaker 1: about it before we recorded that. It moved. The line moved.

191
00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,360
Speaker 1: They were originally getting three and a half, right, and

192
00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:16,200
Speaker 1: you were going to take them there too as well, Right.

193
00:08:16,080 --> 00:08:18,200
Speaker 2: That's right. Yeah, as soon as I saw anything over three,

194
00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:19,560
Speaker 2: that's kind of what I pounced on. It might have

195
00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:22,120
Speaker 2: moved before because of that Julio Jones news that just

196
00:08:22,160 --> 00:08:24,520
Speaker 2: came out today, but yeah, you said it. I mean,

197
00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:26,280
Speaker 2: if one thing is gonna lose this bet, it's gonna

198
00:08:26,280 --> 00:08:28,640
Speaker 2: be the Falcons offensive line. That's that's their biggest week

199
00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:31,200
Speaker 2: point all seasons. So they got a couple of rookies

200
00:08:31,240 --> 00:08:33,559
Speaker 2: that will be starting. Hopefully they can pull through for them.

201
00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,960
Speaker 2: But if it's overfield goal, I like the Falcons here.

202
00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:39,520
Speaker 1: No, I think overfield goal is certainly you know, again

203
00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:42,880
Speaker 1: that key number of three is certainly something they take

204
00:08:42,920 --> 00:08:44,679
Speaker 1: a look at. And in fact, you know I mentioned

205
00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:46,480
Speaker 1: betting pros dot Com. One of the things that we

206
00:08:46,520 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 1: do is we have a bunch of betting experts, sports

207
00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,679
Speaker 1: betting experts that make their picks, and right now, fifty

208
00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 1: eight percent are with you. They're on the side they're

209
00:08:53,760 --> 00:08:56,520
Speaker 1: going with the Falcons. So most likely that's gonna be

210
00:08:56,559 --> 00:08:59,680
Speaker 1: a good pick. But for me, it's it's close enough

211
00:08:59,679 --> 00:09:01,920
Speaker 1: where I is a little unsure. It is a game

212
00:09:01,920 --> 00:09:04,880
Speaker 1: that I'm really interested to watch from an NFL perspective,

213
00:09:04,920 --> 00:09:06,760
Speaker 1: just because both of these teams I think have a

214
00:09:06,840 --> 00:09:09,079
Speaker 1: chance to be really interesting this year. So one way

215
00:09:09,120 --> 00:09:12,079
Speaker 1: or another, I'll be watching for me my number one pick.

216
00:09:12,440 --> 00:09:15,000
Speaker 1: And I just feel like when I say this, I

217
00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:17,640
Speaker 1: almost I can't get off it because I've been trying

218
00:09:17,640 --> 00:09:19,560
Speaker 1: to push myself off it. But I can't because I

219
00:09:19,640 --> 00:09:22,320
Speaker 1: like it. You may not. It is the Chiefs at

220
00:09:22,320 --> 00:09:25,880
Speaker 1: the Jaguars, and I like actually the Jaguars getting three.

221
00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:29,040
Speaker 1: I know, I believe me. I am not in the

222
00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 1: majority on this one, but I've been looking at this

223
00:09:31,240 --> 00:09:33,520
Speaker 1: game closely and kind of go through it, you know.

224
00:09:33,760 --> 00:09:35,080
Speaker 1: For the record, By the way, I will say that

225
00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:37,320
Speaker 1: my boss basically told me that he really loves the

226
00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:39,520
Speaker 1: chief with the spread. So this may actually be my

227
00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:41,640
Speaker 1: last episode. And Ian, since you came up with the

228
00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:44,079
Speaker 1: last segment, you can probably just take over for me

229
00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:45,959
Speaker 1: if you're cool with that. But look, this is how

230
00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,640
Speaker 1: I generally approach making my game picks. Okay. I do

231
00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:50,760
Speaker 1: my own projections for the game, and I come up

232
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:52,560
Speaker 1: with what I think the spread and the over under

233
00:09:52,600 --> 00:09:54,719
Speaker 1: ought to be, and when the numbers are off by

234
00:09:54,800 --> 00:09:56,960
Speaker 1: anything more than like a point or two, I then

235
00:09:57,080 --> 00:09:58,920
Speaker 1: kind of start looking and how the game is being

236
00:09:58,960 --> 00:10:01,360
Speaker 1: bet Now I talked to about this on Monday. But

237
00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:03,920
Speaker 1: the spread opened originally as the Chiefs laying five, so

238
00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,079
Speaker 1: it's moved about a point and a half since it

239
00:10:06,200 --> 00:10:08,720
Speaker 1: first opened months ago. Now, some of that is news

240
00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:10,800
Speaker 1: about Tyreek Hill, right, everybody thought that he was going

241
00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,360
Speaker 1: to get suspended, and then once he wasn't, the spread

242
00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,480
Speaker 1: closed a little bit. But again, as we talked about,

243
00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,680
Speaker 1: players like wide receivers and running backs don't usually have

244
00:10:18,800 --> 00:10:20,880
Speaker 1: that much of an impact on the spread. So you know,

245
00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,319
Speaker 1: when it went from five, you know, it never rebounded

246
00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:24,959
Speaker 1: when we knew that Hill was going to play. So

247
00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:26,840
Speaker 1: when you look at the amount of money that's being bet,

248
00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,480
Speaker 1: you can see that roughly seventy percent of the number

249
00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:31,920
Speaker 1: of bets coming in here are being placed on the Chiefs,

250
00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,280
Speaker 1: but the actual amount of money that's being bet is

251
00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:36,960
Speaker 1: relatively split down the middle. And so when something like

252
00:10:37,000 --> 00:10:40,160
Speaker 1: that happens, that almost is always an indication that sharpetters

253
00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:42,880
Speaker 1: are betting against the public. So even though the public

254
00:10:42,920 --> 00:10:45,240
Speaker 1: here is backing the Chiefs, the line has dropped and

255
00:10:45,280 --> 00:10:48,360
Speaker 1: has not rebounded from where it was now in week one.

256
00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:50,520
Speaker 1: It's a little hard to read into that. As much

257
00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,480
Speaker 1: as I'm trying to do here because the lines have

258
00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,520
Speaker 1: been out forever, so there's a lot of money that's

259
00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:57,200
Speaker 1: been coming in forever. But still the fact that the

260
00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:59,880
Speaker 1: line never rebounded suggests to me that there is some

261
00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,319
Speaker 1: smart money coming in on the Jags. And really, again,

262
00:11:02,360 --> 00:11:04,600
Speaker 1: as I talked about this with Sean Green on our

263
00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:08,520
Speaker 1: last show, and we just mentioned, actually there are key numbers, right,

264
00:11:08,600 --> 00:11:11,280
Speaker 1: There's three is a key number. Seven is a key number.

265
00:11:11,320 --> 00:11:13,679
Speaker 1: Thirty percent of all games over the last fifteen years

266
00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,560
Speaker 1: or so have ended with exactly a three or seven

267
00:11:16,559 --> 00:11:19,559
Speaker 1: margin of victory. So when you get above or below

268
00:11:19,600 --> 00:11:21,640
Speaker 1: one of those numbers, I get a little bit enticed.

269
00:11:21,679 --> 00:11:24,760
Speaker 1: And so here at three and a half, I'm kind

270
00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:28,720
Speaker 1: of excited. I've been talking myself into the Jags all preseason.

271
00:11:28,760 --> 00:11:31,080
Speaker 1: I think the offense is gonna be much improved with

272
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:34,160
Speaker 1: any quarterback not named Blake Bordoles, and with Fournette slimmer

273
00:11:34,160 --> 00:11:36,520
Speaker 1: and looking motivated, I think the defense is still going

274
00:11:36,559 --> 00:11:38,640
Speaker 1: to be strong. They match up pretty well with the Chiefs,

275
00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:40,760
Speaker 1: given that they have one of the true shutdown corners

276
00:11:40,760 --> 00:11:42,760
Speaker 1: in Jalen Ramsey when he's on at least, and I

277
00:11:42,760 --> 00:11:44,760
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a close game, So I'm

278
00:11:44,800 --> 00:11:46,600
Speaker 1: gonna take it when you get that extra half a

279
00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:49,520
Speaker 1: point at minus one fourteen. So go ahead tell me

280
00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:50,120
Speaker 1: why I'm wrong.

281
00:11:50,520 --> 00:11:52,800
Speaker 2: No, I actually don't hate that pick, but I mean so,

282
00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:54,920
Speaker 2: like you said, the public's gonna be on the Chiefs,

283
00:11:54,960 --> 00:11:56,960
Speaker 2: because when you look at it, it almost seems like just

284
00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:58,480
Speaker 2: three and a half is too good to be true

285
00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:00,520
Speaker 2: to bet on the Chiefs dudging by how good they

286
00:12:00,520 --> 00:12:02,760
Speaker 2: were last season. But the points you made about the

287
00:12:02,840 --> 00:12:05,320
Speaker 2: Jaguars were a lot of things that I've been thinking

288
00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,520
Speaker 2: as well. I think they are gonna have a bounce

289
00:12:07,600 --> 00:12:09,920
Speaker 2: back year similar to the Falcons. If you remember, hitting

290
00:12:09,920 --> 00:12:11,840
Speaker 2: into the last season, the Jaguars were a dark horse

291
00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,200
Speaker 2: pick for a lot of people to win the Super Bowl. Obviously,

292
00:12:14,240 --> 00:12:16,319
Speaker 2: they you know, didn't live up to those expectations. I

293
00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,320
Speaker 2: think they finished five and eleven, But I do think

294
00:12:19,360 --> 00:12:21,079
Speaker 2: they are gonna have a bounce back year this year.

295
00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,360
Speaker 2: And I think, just as a caveat for basically oli

296
00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:25,240
Speaker 2: our picks in Week one, this is Week one, so

297
00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:28,600
Speaker 2: we have no idea what we're gonna see from these teams.

298
00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:32,800
Speaker 2: So there's certain games that there's teams that I'm interested.

299
00:12:32,840 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 2: I would need to see how they're looking and how

300
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:38,080
Speaker 2: they're gonna perform this year before I place any money

301
00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,439
Speaker 2: on it. So that's why I'm not picking the Jaguars myself.

302
00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:42,319
Speaker 2: But I'm also not gonna pick the Chiefs because the

303
00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:44,240
Speaker 2: Jaguars are just one of those teams that I want

304
00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:45,760
Speaker 2: to see before I put my money on it. So

305
00:12:45,840 --> 00:12:48,880
Speaker 2: I don't hate the bet, especially because I don't know

306
00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:51,200
Speaker 2: the three and a half. It seems. I don't like

307
00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:53,880
Speaker 2: calling betting lines traps, but if there is a trap line,

308
00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:55,720
Speaker 2: it would be this one. It Chiefs seem too.

309
00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:58,920
Speaker 1: Easy, right, and you know again, let's just make it clear, Okay.

310
00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,320
Speaker 1: First of all, I mentioned the percentage of experts that

311
00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:03,760
Speaker 1: were on your side in the last pick. Sixty six

312
00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,040
Speaker 1: percent of experts are siding with the Chiefs here langing

313
00:13:06,040 --> 00:13:07,160
Speaker 1: the three and a half. So I will put that

314
00:13:07,200 --> 00:13:10,360
Speaker 1: out there. And of course, I mean, I'm gonna be honest.

315
00:13:10,400 --> 00:13:14,040
Speaker 1: I'm absolutely terrified to bet against Mahomes and Andy Reid's record,

316
00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:16,320
Speaker 1: of course, whenever you know his record off a bye

317
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:18,200
Speaker 1: is well known. He's usually good in first game, so

318
00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:21,360
Speaker 1: there are plenty of factors that make me nervous. But

319
00:13:21,800 --> 00:13:24,000
Speaker 1: I honestly, I just think that this is gonna be

320
00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,240
Speaker 1: a different Jaguars team. I think playing at home to

321
00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:29,280
Speaker 1: open the season, I think the spread, you know, once

322
00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:33,000
Speaker 1: it got past once it stayed above three. Really, I

323
00:13:33,120 --> 00:13:35,760
Speaker 1: just it's something where I feel like it's gonna be

324
00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:37,319
Speaker 1: enough that the Jaguars are gonna pull it out. But

325
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:38,960
Speaker 1: I'm willing to be on an island here a little bit.

326
00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:40,760
Speaker 1: So all right, what's your second pick?

327
00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, so my second pick and actually my one of

328
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:44,760
Speaker 2: my main points, but my second pick actually helps, oh,

329
00:13:44,760 --> 00:13:46,719
Speaker 2: your Jaguars pick as well. So my second pick is

330
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:50,040
Speaker 2: going to be the Buccaneers minus one over the forty

331
00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,200
Speaker 2: nine ers. And that point is what it's like to

332
00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,360
Speaker 2: play in Florida in September. So the Jacksonville has that

333
00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 2: advantage playing at home in Florida in September. Tampa Bay

334
00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,000
Speaker 2: has that advantage as well. It's just humid, it's grown.

335
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,800
Speaker 2: Even teams like Miami. I'd like to see what they're

336
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:04,800
Speaker 2: gonna do in September because I don't have the exact

337
00:14:04,880 --> 00:14:06,480
Speaker 2: numbers in front of me, but something tells me that

338
00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,360
Speaker 2: Florida teams have a good spread record in the month

339
00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:13,160
Speaker 2: of September, and I think that just September's in Florida's

340
00:14:13,160 --> 00:14:16,920
Speaker 2: can can be tough, So Buccaneers it's because they're a

341
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:20,320
Speaker 2: Falcon divisional opponent, it's it could I die a little

342
00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:22,480
Speaker 2: inside every time I pick a different NFC South team.

343
00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:25,560
Speaker 2: But I think the Buccaneers are going to do better

344
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:26,880
Speaker 2: than a lot of people think. And I think the

345
00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:28,480
Speaker 2: forty nine ers are going to do worse than a

346
00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:31,200
Speaker 2: lot of people think. A lot of people are high

347
00:14:31,280 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 2: up on the forty nine ers this year, and they

348
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:34,640
Speaker 2: were heading into last year as well. I think a

349
00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,720
Speaker 2: lot of people just have high hopes for Jimmy Garoppolo.

350
00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:39,760
Speaker 2: But I don't see it. I mean, he had a

351
00:14:39,760 --> 00:14:42,000
Speaker 2: couple of good what was it might even just been

352
00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,520
Speaker 2: preseason when he was with the Patriots, had a couple

353
00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:46,400
Speaker 2: of good games. Maybe it's regular season. I kind of

354
00:14:46,400 --> 00:14:46,960
Speaker 2: forget now, But.

355
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:48,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he played a couple of games in

356
00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:51,000
Speaker 1: the regular season that year where I remember then he

357
00:14:51,040 --> 00:14:53,400
Speaker 1: got injured and then Jacoby Brissett came in and they

358
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,920
Speaker 1: won against the Texans or something like that. Yeah, yeah,

359
00:14:55,960 --> 00:14:58,640
Speaker 1: he played a few games, but nothing really substantial in

360
00:14:58,680 --> 00:14:59,400
Speaker 1: the regular season.

361
00:14:59,480 --> 00:15:03,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, And but I just think that most quarterbacks in

362
00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:04,600
Speaker 2: the NFL are going to have at least some sort

363
00:15:04,600 --> 00:15:06,880
Speaker 2: of success inside the Patriots system. So I'm just not

364
00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:08,920
Speaker 2: sold on him. Before he got hurt. Last year, he

365
00:15:08,960 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 2: didn't look great. He didn't look great in the preseason.

366
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:14,680
Speaker 2: This year, I'm not high up on Jimmy Garoppolo at all.

367
00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,080
Speaker 2: I think the Buccaneers at home, and I think they're

368
00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,240
Speaker 2: improved from last year. I mean, they still have some

369
00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:21,520
Speaker 2: offensive weapons as well, like they of course they have

370
00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:23,800
Speaker 2: Mike Evans. I think Chris Godwin's gonna have a big year.

371
00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:25,240
Speaker 2: They have a couple of good running backs in Peyton

372
00:15:25,240 --> 00:15:28,120
Speaker 2: Barber and Ronald Jones. I just think Tampa Bay at

373
00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:30,960
Speaker 2: home against a West Coast forty nine ers team that

374
00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:33,040
Speaker 2: I'm not high on. I think I think that's a

375
00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:34,000
Speaker 2: game Tampa is gonna win.

376
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:36,280
Speaker 1: Out of curiosity, you know, we know about the whole

377
00:15:36,520 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 1: West Coast teams playing on the East Coast. Do you

378
00:15:39,520 --> 00:15:41,800
Speaker 1: think that that holds true even for Week one or

379
00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 1: do you think that that's more something for in the season.

380
00:15:44,160 --> 00:15:46,600
Speaker 2: I think it holds true, but not as much as

381
00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,040
Speaker 2: it does as would mid season and generally just road

382
00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:51,040
Speaker 2: teams as a whole. I'm betting on a lot of

383
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:54,200
Speaker 2: road teams actually other than the Bucks. The Bucks are home,

384
00:15:54,200 --> 00:15:55,760
Speaker 2: but I'm betting on a lot of road teams week

385
00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,280
Speaker 2: one because I just don't think it has as big

386
00:15:58,560 --> 00:16:02,120
Speaker 2: of an effect as it does mid or late season,

387
00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:04,680
Speaker 2: just because by then they're just they're they've been traveling

388
00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 2: all year, they're tired, they're hurt. Week one, it doesn't

389
00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,400
Speaker 2: have as big an effect. But I would still say

390
00:16:09,400 --> 00:16:11,920
Speaker 2: it does have an effect that's at least worth mentioning.

391
00:16:12,080 --> 00:16:13,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think it's a good bed. Fifty

392
00:16:13,520 --> 00:16:15,600
Speaker 1: eight percent of experts are with you. This was not

393
00:16:15,680 --> 00:16:18,000
Speaker 1: a game I had a good feel for it, just because, look,

394
00:16:18,200 --> 00:16:21,360
Speaker 1: you mentioned it before. Week one is really tough because

395
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:23,600
Speaker 1: we really don't know what we're gonna see, and and

396
00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,800
Speaker 1: Garoppolo looked horrific. You heard the practice reports, and then

397
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:29,080
Speaker 1: he looked passable in week three of the preseason, so

398
00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:31,480
Speaker 1: we really don't know. This is one where if I

399
00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:33,640
Speaker 1: was forced to make a pick, I would take the

400
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,600
Speaker 1: Bucks laying one. But it's a game that I really

401
00:16:36,600 --> 00:16:38,400
Speaker 1: as I tried to analyze, I just couldn't get a

402
00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,000
Speaker 1: good feel for it. It strikes me, you know, kind

403
00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,840
Speaker 1: of a pick them maybe minus one is probably right,

404
00:16:43,880 --> 00:16:45,680
Speaker 1: and I would probably take the Bucks if I had to,

405
00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:48,320
Speaker 1: but overall, I think i'd probably stay away from But

406
00:16:48,360 --> 00:16:51,520
Speaker 1: you know, it's certainly the Florida point, which also I

407
00:16:51,520 --> 00:16:54,120
Speaker 1: think Sean brought up on our last show, and traveling

408
00:16:54,200 --> 00:16:57,360
Speaker 1: cross country certainly gives me hope there for the Bucks.

409
00:16:57,400 --> 00:16:59,400
Speaker 1: For me, my second game is look, I mean, I

410
00:16:59,520 --> 00:17:02,480
Speaker 1: bet against Patrick Mahomes, so I feel like I've got

411
00:17:02,520 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 1: to keep going and get a little crazy here and

412
00:17:05,119 --> 00:17:07,760
Speaker 1: bet against Drew Brees in primetime. I'm going to take

413
00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:11,760
Speaker 1: the Texans plus seven at minus one fourteen. We did

414
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 1: a bunch of shows earlier this preseason where we were

415
00:17:14,600 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 1: picking division winners and playoff teams and potential Super Bowl winners,

416
00:17:18,280 --> 00:17:21,200
Speaker 1: and I was really really high on the Texans pretty

417
00:17:21,280 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 1: much even before the Andrew Luck news. They have a

418
00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:27,399
Speaker 1: very tough schedule and their offensive line was questionable, to

419
00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,760
Speaker 1: be generous frankly, but I had enough optimism that there

420
00:17:30,840 --> 00:17:32,680
Speaker 1: was going to be some growth here overall. Now they've

421
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:36,320
Speaker 1: had this crazy, crazy, crazy preseason where they've traded Clowney

422
00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:38,880
Speaker 1: and they've lost Lamar Miller, but they've added Duke Johnson

423
00:17:38,920 --> 00:17:42,000
Speaker 1: and Carlos Hide and Kenny Stills and most importantly Laramie

424
00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,800
Speaker 1: Tunsel and our last show, I agreed that, you know,

425
00:17:45,040 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 1: we just couldn't understand why the line was high. I

426
00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,320
Speaker 1: sort of pegged at it more like five and a

427
00:17:50,359 --> 00:17:51,919
Speaker 1: half or something, if I was going to pick it

428
00:17:51,920 --> 00:17:53,879
Speaker 1: out of a hat. Now, if you want to hear

429
00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:55,480
Speaker 1: more of the reasons why I think that's too high,

430
00:17:55,520 --> 00:17:57,159
Speaker 1: I mentioned them on our last show. Do I think

431
00:17:57,200 --> 00:17:59,240
Speaker 1: the Saints should be favorite? Of course, of course they

432
00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:01,880
Speaker 1: should not by seven, which again is one of those

433
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 1: key numbers. Even without Clowny. The Texans still love JJ Watt.

434
00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,399
Speaker 1: I'm expecting Whitney Merciless to bounce back. I love the

435
00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,040
Speaker 1: addition of Duke Johnson, but really, most of all, it's

436
00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 1: Tunsil who's going to really solidify that line. Now the

437
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,120
Speaker 1: betters slightly agree here, but not overwhelmingly.

438
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:15,240
Speaker 2: So.

439
00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 1: The number of bets is about fifty to fifty, with

440
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,720
Speaker 1: more like a sixty forty split in terms of the

441
00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:22,560
Speaker 1: actual money coming in in favor of the Texans. With

442
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,479
Speaker 1: that spread, that's not really anything significant enough where I'm

443
00:18:25,520 --> 00:18:27,560
Speaker 1: going to draw any conclusions. Now, if it dropped to

444
00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:30,800
Speaker 1: six and a half, I'd probably still like the Texans,

445
00:18:30,840 --> 00:18:32,360
Speaker 1: and I do think that there would be value there,

446
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:34,240
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure I would be including them as

447
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:36,879
Speaker 1: one of my best bets. As a touchdown though, I

448
00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,520
Speaker 1: will take that. And the experts are pretty split on this.

449
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 1: On bettingpros dot Com, it's about fifty five percent siding

450
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:44,480
Speaker 1: with the Texans. So what do you think crazy to

451
00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:45,879
Speaker 1: go against Breeze in primetime or what?

452
00:18:46,040 --> 00:18:47,920
Speaker 2: No? I like that pick. You're picking against the eighths.

453
00:18:47,960 --> 00:18:50,200
Speaker 2: I hate that Saints are releast favorite team, but yeah.

454
00:18:50,240 --> 00:18:53,480
Speaker 1: I know you're letting your your Falcon fandom, you know color.

455
00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:56,880
Speaker 2: I think I even started the show saying you shouldn't

456
00:18:56,880 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 2: be biased when you're betting on sports, and then.

457
00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,119
Speaker 1: You are breaking your own rule. Had you not come

458
00:19:01,200 --> 00:19:02,719
Speaker 1: up with a name for this segment, I would end

459
00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: this podcast right now.

460
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:06,480
Speaker 2: No, but I do like to pick, and a lot

461
00:19:06,480 --> 00:19:08,600
Speaker 2: of the points that you made I agree with. A

462
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 2: big thing. The Saints can't stop the pass as well,

463
00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 2: and I think the Texans have it a couple of

464
00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:14,879
Speaker 2: two of the best receivers in the league and DeAndre

465
00:19:14,960 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 2: Hopkins will Fuller, who I think is extremely underrated. He

466
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,560
Speaker 2: was having a great breakout year last year until he

467
00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,879
Speaker 2: got hurt yeah, I think seven points is just is

468
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:24,520
Speaker 2: just too much.

469
00:19:24,560 --> 00:19:26,480
Speaker 1: I think it's just too much. It's just too much.

470
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:28,120
Speaker 1: It's got to be below it's got to be below

471
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:29,920
Speaker 1: that key number. I I don't get it. It does

472
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:31,880
Speaker 1: make me nervous, but you know, and you I could

473
00:19:31,920 --> 00:19:34,280
Speaker 1: say there is a scenario where, you know, the Saints

474
00:19:34,280 --> 00:19:37,960
Speaker 1: come out and just go bonkers. But really the Texans

475
00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:41,639
Speaker 1: are good. They're and you know, I'm not optimistic on

476
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:44,440
Speaker 1: their future, you know, in future years, given what they've

477
00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,720
Speaker 1: they've done this season, but overall, for what I like

478
00:19:47,800 --> 00:19:49,920
Speaker 1: coming into this game, I just it's it's got to

479
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:50,800
Speaker 1: be less than a touch.

480
00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:52,400
Speaker 2: And I don't think the Saints defense is good enough.

481
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 2: That's going to hinder them all year, I think, And

482
00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 2: I mean, you need a good defense to cover these

483
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:58,960
Speaker 2: big spreads because there's always the chance of the back

484
00:19:59,000 --> 00:20:02,160
Speaker 2: door cover, which absolutely into one too many times. So yeah,

485
00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:03,760
Speaker 2: I definitely like the Texans there.

486
00:20:04,040 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: All right, who's your third pick?

487
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:06,720
Speaker 2: Okay, So my third pick, we're going to go to

488
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:10,600
Speaker 2: the AFC East. I'm taking the Bills at plus two

489
00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:13,560
Speaker 2: point five over the Jets. The Bills are on the road,

490
00:20:13,600 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 2: so plus two point five's at minus one oh nine

491
00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,480
Speaker 2: right now. So when you're talking about the AFC East,

492
00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 2: obviously have the Patriots at the top of the division

493
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 2: the Dolphins at the bottom. It's those two middle teams

494
00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,440
Speaker 2: that have a lot of questions about them. They both

495
00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 2: have two second year quarterbacks. But I just like the

496
00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: Bills a little bit more. Actually think the Bills are

497
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:31,399
Speaker 2: going to be a surprised team this year. I wouldn't

498
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:33,879
Speaker 2: even be totally surprised if they snagged one of the

499
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 2: last wildcaret spots there. I like Josh Allen better than

500
00:20:37,600 --> 00:20:39,320
Speaker 2: I like Sam Darnold. I just think they have a

501
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:41,480
Speaker 2: few more weapons. I think they have a better defense.

502
00:20:42,160 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 2: If you look at how they performed last year, neither

503
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,359
Speaker 2: offense was great compared to the rest of the league.

504
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:49,000
Speaker 2: The one big difference, though, is that the Bills defense

505
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: was actually half decent. They're they're just about middle of

506
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,960
Speaker 2: the pack and just about every defensive category, whereas the

507
00:20:54,040 --> 00:20:57,239
Speaker 2: Jets defense was still one of the worst. So I

508
00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,560
Speaker 2: like the Bills. I think they have some weapons. I mean,

509
00:21:00,760 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 2: they're on the road, but really from Buffalo, New York,

510
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:05,560
Speaker 2: I don't even that's hardly even a road game whatsoever.

511
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,919
Speaker 2: I really like one edition that I haven't really heard

512
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 2: too many people talk with that I really like for

513
00:21:09,680 --> 00:21:12,280
Speaker 2: them this year is Cole Beasley. I think that he

514
00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:14,720
Speaker 2: was under used when he was in Dallas. I think

515
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,360
Speaker 2: he's gonna be a big weapon for them this year.

516
00:21:16,359 --> 00:21:18,080
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna help Josh Allen ode a lot.

517
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,160
Speaker 2: So I wish I could have got this number plus three,

518
00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:23,840
Speaker 2: that key number, that field goal number, but I don't

519
00:21:23,880 --> 00:21:26,560
Speaker 2: hate them at the plus two point five numbers. So

520
00:21:26,560 --> 00:21:27,520
Speaker 2: that's my third pick.

521
00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's an interesting game. First of all, the Jets

522
00:21:30,520 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 1: fan so I take great offense, kiss and you're it's

523
00:21:32,920 --> 00:21:36,080
Speaker 1: really hurting, But I have no problem for it. I

524
00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:38,639
Speaker 1: didn't have a great feel for this one either. I'm surprised,

525
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 1: you know, to me moving off three to two and

526
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:43,399
Speaker 1: a half, that would have scared me. Here, do you

527
00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 1: think the Bills are gonna win? Outright? Out of curiosity?

528
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:47,320
Speaker 1: Would you, you know, go for a pick them and

529
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:49,399
Speaker 1: take you know, the the plus money I do.

530
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: I'm I'm actually gonna sprinkle their money line as well.

531
00:21:52,160 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 2: I think they're gonna win this game.

532
00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think it's fair. I think I

533
00:21:55,840 --> 00:21:58,440
Speaker 1: don't really know what to expect again. Week one is

534
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:02,080
Speaker 1: so difficult because we really don't know what to expect

535
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 1: the Jets. You know, they have a pretty terrible secondary overall.

536
00:22:07,000 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Jamal Adams is great, but you know,

537
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: really other than that, they really kind of struggle back there.

538
00:22:14,080 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 1: Tremaine Johnson has been a disappointment. They really didn't get

539
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:19,080
Speaker 1: much depth there. So you know, Alan who may not

540
00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:21,080
Speaker 1: be that accurate, but he's got a big arm. I

541
00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: love your point about Beasley because you know, everybody's been

542
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,040
Speaker 1: talking about, you know, John Brown, who I also love,

543
00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 1: but Beasley is really a guy who can kind of

544
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 1: open things up in the middle while Brown and Foster

545
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:35,240
Speaker 1: are going deep. So it's an interesting pick for me.

546
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:37,760
Speaker 1: Don't you get worried a little bit about division games?

547
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:40,399
Speaker 1: I mean, these teams. You know, it's new coaching staff

548
00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: of course for the Jets, but you know, these teams

549
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 1: they see each other all the time, they meet all

550
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: the time. Division games, to me, are always the toughest

551
00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:48,920
Speaker 1: to pick against the spread.

552
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 2: What I don't like doing in divisional games is taking

553
00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:53,359
Speaker 2: the favor. So okay, that's why that would kind of

554
00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:55,359
Speaker 2: scare me more away if I was picking the Jets.

555
00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,200
Speaker 2: But because it's the divisional game. Anything can happen in

556
00:22:58,240 --> 00:22:59,879
Speaker 2: divisional games, so why not take the points?

557
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,000
Speaker 1: Okay, all right, that's a fair point for me. My

558
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: third one is going to be the Panthers getting two

559
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 1: and a half from the Rams at minus one oh seven. Now,

560
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:11,480
Speaker 1: I like this a lot more when it was at three.

561
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,720
Speaker 1: Kind of like you, and I liked it a lot

562
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,440
Speaker 1: more before Cam Newton's injury. But it sounds like he's

563
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 1: going to be good to go. In our Team Futures episode,

564
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:21,040
Speaker 1: I picked the Panthers as the best bet to win

565
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:23,160
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl given the odds they were at plus

566
00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 1: forty eight hundred or something like that. I'm not one

567
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:27,520
Speaker 1: hundred convinced that they're going to be a good team,

568
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:29,440
Speaker 1: but I think that if they are good, they have

569
00:23:29,520 --> 00:23:32,040
Speaker 1: a chance to be really, really good. Remember they were

570
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: six and two before Cam suffered his injury. He adapted

571
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: well to Norb Turner's offense. I love what Dj Moore

572
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,800
Speaker 1: and Curtis Samuel can do. And again, the defense, which

573
00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 1: was pretty strong overall. They had some holes, certainly, but

574
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: they remained strong and they've added some additional pieces like

575
00:23:46,800 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 1: Jerald McCoy, so I think they're going to be solid

576
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:51,359
Speaker 1: if cam can stay healthy. And so the Rams are

577
00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 1: coming in and they get that cup, but they've lost

578
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:56,600
Speaker 1: some Domkin sue. There are questions around Todd Gurley. I

579
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,440
Speaker 1: know the recent report that came out today that he's

580
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:00,679
Speaker 1: apparently going to get a full workload, but that remains

581
00:24:00,720 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: to be seen. Their offensive line is weaker than last year,

582
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 1: so I think the Panthers can get pressure on Jared Goff,

583
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,000
Speaker 1: and you saw in the Super Bowl that he is

584
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: not that great at handling pressure. We just talked about

585
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: what happens when West Coast teams travel to the East Coast.

586
00:24:14,200 --> 00:24:16,760
Speaker 1: They usually have issues. I agree, not as strong and

587
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: week one, but I do think it is going to

588
00:24:18,920 --> 00:24:21,880
Speaker 1: be something. And while I feel a little queasy about

589
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:24,640
Speaker 1: that number being under the key number of three, it's

590
00:24:24,680 --> 00:24:27,239
Speaker 1: pretty clear that sharp betters are what's keeping the number here.

591
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: About three quarters of the bets are on the Rams,

592
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:32,320
Speaker 1: which makes sense with then coming off the Super Bowl,

593
00:24:32,640 --> 00:24:35,000
Speaker 1: But like with the Jaguars and the Chiefs, the money

594
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,280
Speaker 1: coming in is actually split about evenly. And remember there

595
00:24:38,359 --> 00:24:41,320
Speaker 1: are questions on Newton and the money is still split

596
00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:43,960
Speaker 1: even So with that, that really tells me that sharp

597
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 1: betters are kind of looking at the Panthers here, and

598
00:24:46,040 --> 00:24:48,159
Speaker 1: with as good as the Rams were last year, remember

599
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 1: in the first game they were losing at halftime to

600
00:24:51,480 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 1: the Raiders at thirteen ten, I think it's fair that

601
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:55,520
Speaker 1: they may get off to a little bit of a

602
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,399
Speaker 1: slow start type of beginning to their season. Now, I

603
00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:01,680
Speaker 1: would love it if that line crept back up to three.

604
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: I do not think it's going too based on the

605
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:05,280
Speaker 1: money that's coming in, but I actually think that the

606
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 1: Panthers can win this game outright, So I will gladly

607
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: take the two and a half. And I will point

608
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:13,240
Speaker 1: out that experts are not signing with me, well not overwhelmingly,

609
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 1: but fifty eight percent of experts are signing with the

610
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,240
Speaker 1: Rams here. So what are your thoughts on that game?

611
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,639
Speaker 2: Well, we officially have the entire NFC South covered for

612
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 2: Week one with the Panthers pick.

613
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:23,760
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I didn't even know anything about the Panthers.

614
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: I was just picking it to get you riled up

615
00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 1: a little bit.

616
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,600
Speaker 2: This game is almost identical to your first pick as

617
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 2: far as it's one of the top teams from last

618
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,440
Speaker 2: year with a small spread. You look at it, you

619
00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:36,400
Speaker 2: think the obvious pick is the Rams and you look

620
00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 2: into it more and you find that the sharp money's

621
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,040
Speaker 2: on the opposite side. This is a tough one. This

622
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:43,240
Speaker 2: is that one's going to be a stay away for me. Actually,

623
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 2: you know what, I might go rams just because it

624
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:48,640
Speaker 2: is under that number of three. But I mean, once again,

625
00:25:48,680 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 2: all the points you made were good points. I don't

626
00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:53,080
Speaker 2: know what I'm gonna see with Cam Newton. Don't forget

627
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 2: last year, the Panthers at the very start of the

628
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:56,720
Speaker 2: year were one of the best teams in the league,

629
00:25:57,520 --> 00:25:59,320
Speaker 2: and then they just kind of faltered down the stretch

630
00:25:59,359 --> 00:25:59,800
Speaker 2: a little bit.

631
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: And it was really when Cam got injured. If he

632
00:26:03,119 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 1: wasn't injured, we'd be thinking completely differently about the Panthers than.

633
00:26:07,119 --> 00:26:09,719
Speaker 2: We do at the moment because and he was injured too.

634
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 2: By the end of the year, it was looking bad.

635
00:26:11,200 --> 00:26:14,360
Speaker 2: He could barely throw football ten yards. It was rough

636
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:17,919
Speaker 2: to watch. And then another point is with Sean McVay

637
00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:19,880
Speaker 2: obviously is one of the best coaches in the league,

638
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 2: but in Week one, I think it's tough for a

639
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,000
Speaker 2: really good coach to take advantage of that in Week

640
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:25,840
Speaker 2: one because he just doesn't have any game film from

641
00:26:25,840 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 2: the other team outside of preseason that they can really

642
00:26:28,680 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 2: use to judge and game play with so good coaches

643
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:33,679
Speaker 2: actually get better as the season goes along. So if

644
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,000
Speaker 2: you're gonna pick a time for a Sean McVay led

645
00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:37,840
Speaker 2: team to lose, it'd be very early in the season,

646
00:26:37,960 --> 00:26:38,880
Speaker 2: or even Week one.

647
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 1: They were losing thirteen ten to the Raiders. I mean,

648
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 1: it really is something. I agree. If you're going to

649
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:48,080
Speaker 1: take advantage of these teams, I think this is the

650
00:26:48,119 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: time to do it. So let's just do a quick

651
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 1: summary here. You've got the Falcons getting four from the Vikings,

652
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: the Bills getting two and a half from the Jets,

653
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,120
Speaker 1: and the Bucks laying one against the forty nine Ers.

654
00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 1: I like the Jaguars getting three and a half from

655
00:27:00,320 --> 00:27:03,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the Texans getting seven from the Saints, and

656
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,200
Speaker 1: the Panthers getting two and a half from the Rams.

657
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:08,840
Speaker 1: All right, good job, I love it. Pick six first

658
00:27:08,880 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 1: pick six in the book. Oh a good job. Yeah,

659
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,879
Speaker 1: I'm really impressed. All right, So before we move on

660
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:15,920
Speaker 1: to our next segment, I do want to mention another

661
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:19,240
Speaker 1: one of our sponsors. That's side Boss. Side Boss is

662
00:27:19,280 --> 00:27:21,679
Speaker 1: a great sight to hone your skills as a sports

663
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: better with absolutely no risk because they are offering a

664
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:28,760
Speaker 1: free to play, season long NFL handicapping contest with fifty

665
00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:32,440
Speaker 1: thousand dollars in cash prizes. Here's how it works. You

666
00:27:32,560 --> 00:27:34,920
Speaker 1: pick five games per week for all seventeen weeks of

667
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: the NFL season, and you earn your title as the

668
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 1: Boss with a fifteen thousand dollars grand prize. But the

669
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: fifteen thousand dollars grand prize is hardly all that's up

670
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:45,720
Speaker 1: for grabs here. Side Boss is gonna be awarding quarterly

671
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,399
Speaker 1: and weekly prizes all season long, and if you go

672
00:27:48,520 --> 00:27:51,280
Speaker 1: five to zero in any week, you're gonna win some money.

673
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:53,639
Speaker 1: And even if you are the worst at this of

674
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: all time, that is okay because the last place finisher

675
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:59,880
Speaker 1: earns the title of Donkey Boss and gets one thousand dollars.

676
00:28:00,320 --> 00:28:02,080
Speaker 1: And if you're feeling a little more confident as the

677
00:28:02,119 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: season goes on, that is great because Sideboss offers pay

678
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 1: to play games throughout the entire season. Just go to

679
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:11,560
Speaker 1: sideboss dot com, click to play the twenty nineteen Pro

680
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 1: Football Pick Them contest and enter the promo code Betting

681
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,680
Speaker 1: Pros upon sign up. That's sideboss dot Com Promo Code

682
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: Betting Pros. All right, we're gonna move to our next

683
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,880
Speaker 1: segment here, and I have an idea for the name

684
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: of what this is. Now you're gonna have to tell

685
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:26,960
Speaker 1: me whether or not you can hear this, okay, because

686
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 1: I'm the least technologically proficient human in the world. Look,

687
00:28:29,359 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 1: are you ready? It's did you get it?

688
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 2: I did?

689
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: Yeah?

690
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,680
Speaker 2: It's a trap. Yeah that's good. That's good.

691
00:28:37,200 --> 00:28:39,360
Speaker 1: That's good. I did it like you have. You have

692
00:28:39,480 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 1: absolutely no idea. How proud of myself I am for

693
00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:45,240
Speaker 1: that because I completely expected not to do it. So

694
00:28:45,360 --> 00:28:48,959
Speaker 1: these are games that essentially we're looking at and we're avoiding,

695
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 1: and it's a trap. It's gonna be the name of

696
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: the segment, which I came up with by myself. So

697
00:28:53,240 --> 00:28:55,880
Speaker 1: we can't give you know, the credit for everything over here,

698
00:28:56,680 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 1: but these are we're each gonna give one game that

699
00:28:59,640 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 1: we are basically looking at the line and we're just

700
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: not really having it because it's just not something we

701
00:29:04,800 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 1: feel good about. So why don't you start us off?

702
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 1: What's your game to avoid?

703
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 2: So my game to avoid is probably the most obvious

704
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:11,480
Speaker 2: one that a lot of people would think to avoid,

705
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:14,440
Speaker 2: and that would be the Colts and the Chargers. The Chargers,

706
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 2: right now are set as six point five point favorites,

707
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 2: and I just I need to see what the Colts

708
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:22,760
Speaker 2: are going to be looking like without Andrew Luck. I mean,

709
00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:24,680
Speaker 2: that's kind of obvious. Andrew Luck just left the team

710
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 2: two weeks ago. He retired the team as a whole

711
00:29:27,440 --> 00:29:29,440
Speaker 2: outside of obviously quarterback at this point, but the team

712
00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 2: as a whole has got better. But just how much

713
00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: is Andrew Luck worth. I don't hate the Chargers there

714
00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 2: because the six and a half is that half a

715
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: point under that magic number of seven. But I need

716
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:44,680
Speaker 2: to avoid it because I need to see what Jacobe

717
00:29:44,680 --> 00:29:46,120
Speaker 2: Prisett's going to be like. If he plays like he

718
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: did two years ago when he started for almost the

719
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 2: whole season, then I would take the Chargers all day long.

720
00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 2: But I'm going to give him the bend of the

721
00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,400
Speaker 2: doubt that he hasn't proved over the past couple of years.

722
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 2: I need to see what the Colts look like as

723
00:29:55,360 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 2: a whole. Also, the Chargers, see they seem to cover

724
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 2: against teams you wouldn't think they're going to cover against

725
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 2: when they're like big point favorites. They like to allow

726
00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 2: the back door cover. So for those reasons, I will

727
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 2: be avoiding that game on Sunday.

728
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:08,840
Speaker 1: I think that's fine. I don't know if you've been

729
00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:11,640
Speaker 1: following the line movements in this game. I mean, it

730
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: was when Luck was healthy, it was at three and

731
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 1: a half. As soon as the injury happened, it jumped

732
00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:19,720
Speaker 1: to seven and a half, and then people hammered it

733
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: and I fell to six and a half, and that's

734
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,320
Speaker 1: where it's kind of been staying. I'm more optimistic about

735
00:30:25,360 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: the Colts in this game, and if it was at seven,

736
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 1: or if it had stayed at seven and a half,

737
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: I would be all over it. At six and a half,

738
00:30:32,120 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 1: it makes me a little nervous. I'm you know, to

739
00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:36,680
Speaker 1: me the Brisset thing, I don't think Brisset's a great

740
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,760
Speaker 1: quarterback at all, but I mean, I'm certainly not looking

741
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 1: at what happened a couple of years ago when he

742
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,040
Speaker 1: had to parachute in and learn the offense which was

743
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:48,280
Speaker 1: not Frank Reich's offense, and figure it out. He's been

744
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 1: taking reps with the team the entire preseason. I think

745
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:55,920
Speaker 1: he knows the system. It's a better system. The Colts,

746
00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:58,760
Speaker 1: other than at quarterback, are a really strong team. And

747
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: for me, the Chargers, I mean, they're kind of decimated

748
00:31:02,960 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: at offensive line, they've got some defensive injury. Melbyn Gordon

749
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: is not there. So for me, it's a game that honestly,

750
00:31:09,120 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: if I had to pick, I would take the Colts.

751
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: But it's just not something again, you said it at

752
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,000
Speaker 1: six and a half. It's really tough.

753
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:17,960
Speaker 2: That's a tricky number.

754
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:20,160
Speaker 1: That's a tricky number, and it's something where it makes

755
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: you want to take the Chargers. But for me, if

756
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:24,520
Speaker 1: it was at seven or certainly seven and a half,

757
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: I would be all over the Colts. At six and

758
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 1: a half, I'm fine with avoiding that. I've got no

759
00:31:28,360 --> 00:31:31,040
Speaker 1: problem with that. But again, the line movement here, pay

760
00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:32,840
Speaker 1: attention to it, see how it's going to because right

761
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:34,120
Speaker 1: now it's at six and a half. It has been

762
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:37,240
Speaker 1: all over the place, including moving down since the luck news.

763
00:31:37,320 --> 00:31:40,160
Speaker 1: So that's a pretty good one for me I am

764
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,040
Speaker 1: going to take. And this kind of goes into what

765
00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:45,920
Speaker 1: you said earlier when we were talking about division games.

766
00:31:46,280 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to avoid the Cowboys laying seven and a

767
00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:52,240
Speaker 1: half against the Giants. Now, to be as transparent as possible,

768
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:54,720
Speaker 1: I took a look at the lines like eight hours

769
00:31:54,760 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 1: ago when I was trying to come out with the

770
00:31:56,360 --> 00:31:58,040
Speaker 1: bet that I was going to avoid, and the line

771
00:31:58,160 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: was at seven, So now it's at seven and half,

772
00:32:00,400 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: which actually kind of makes me lean a little towards

773
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 1: the Giants, but not enough to want to touch it.

774
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: First of all, as a general rule, as we were

775
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 1: talking about, division games are scary, and it's generally unusual

776
00:32:11,440 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: for a division favorite in the first week of the

777
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 1: season to win a game in a blowout, and the

778
00:32:15,160 --> 00:32:18,720
Speaker 1: Cowboys in particular were not great last year as home favorites.

779
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:22,080
Speaker 1: These teams know each other really, really well. It's unclear

780
00:32:22,200 --> 00:32:25,800
Speaker 1: what Zeke's workload is going to be. There's talk about

781
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 1: twenty to twenty five reps. I don't know what that means.

782
00:32:28,840 --> 00:32:31,840
Speaker 1: Amari Cooper is still dealing with planter fasciitis, and yet

783
00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:35,440
Speaker 1: the Giants think I'm gonna admit that. But Sekwon Barkley,

784
00:32:35,440 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: Evan Ingram, Sterling Shepherd, there is enough there to score

785
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 1: a little bit. The money coming in here is pretty

786
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:42,240
Speaker 1: split down the middle. So it's just one of those where,

787
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 1: you know, a division matchup, I've got to feel really

788
00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 1: really comfortable with the number to make me want to

789
00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:49,960
Speaker 1: get involved, and this one just doesn't do it for me, Yeah,

790
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 1: I agree with you.

791
00:32:50,440 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 2: There, I'm avoiding it as well. One big thing to

792
00:32:52,760 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 2: think about with the Cowboys too, is that they have

793
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:58,360
Speaker 2: two different factors about their team that makes me nervous

794
00:32:58,400 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: to take a big spread. Number one is that they

795
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 2: have they're very defensively oriented, so there's not a lot

796
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 2: of points scored in Cowboys games. And they're a rushing offense.

797
00:33:07,280 --> 00:33:09,280
Speaker 2: So when you run the ball more, the clock obviously

798
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 2: goes a bit quicker, and when that happens, you don't

799
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 2: have enough time to kind of win by more than

800
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:18,120
Speaker 2: double digit points. So for that reason, I stay away

801
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 2: from Cowboys when they're favored by that kind of number.

802
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, that, yeah, I agree with you. I'm not

803
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:24,120
Speaker 2: gonna better on that game either. Age if I would,

804
00:33:24,200 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 2: I would lean Giants.

805
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:27,880
Speaker 1: Yes, that's exactly right. And I think that that surprises

806
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:30,040
Speaker 1: people because I think everybody's gonna look and be like, well,

807
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:31,960
Speaker 1: you know, we love the Cowboys and stuff like that.

808
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: But in the end, I just I really can't do it.

809
00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: Sixty three percent of experts are taking Dallas right now

810
00:33:40,320 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 1: at seven and a half, so you know that is

811
00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: something to bear in mind. But for me, again, like you.

812
00:33:46,000 --> 00:33:48,600
Speaker 1: If I was going to take it, I would take

813
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,280
Speaker 1: the Giants getting the seven and a half, all right,

814
00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,520
Speaker 1: So for our it's a trap segment for our picks

815
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,080
Speaker 1: to avoid. You want no part of the Chargers laying

816
00:33:55,120 --> 00:33:56,800
Speaker 1: six and a half to the Cults. I want no

817
00:33:56,920 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: part of the Cowboys laying seven and a half to

818
00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:03,440
Speaker 1: the Giant. All right, successful, first time we ever did.

819
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: It's trapped.

820
00:34:04,560 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 2: It's a try to go.

821
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:06,760
Speaker 1: I mean, you're you're crushing it right now. And there

822
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 1: you know, we didn't even talk about the NFC South.

823
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:10,480
Speaker 2: So yeah, we're here.

824
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:12,839
Speaker 1: Finally we're able to get off it. All right, it's

825
00:34:12,880 --> 00:34:14,840
Speaker 1: time for our final segment, where we are going to

826
00:34:14,880 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: break down our favorite player props from this weekend's game.

827
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:19,920
Speaker 1: I was trying to come up with something clever for this.

828
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:23,319
Speaker 1: It was like proper analysis or something like that. I've

829
00:34:23,360 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: got nothing. I'm just going to go conservative here and

830
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:26,960
Speaker 1: we're just going to go with top prop. So that

831
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:29,000
Speaker 1: that's all it is. This is our top prop segment.

832
00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 1: It's our one prop bet from this weekend that we

833
00:34:32,600 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 1: like a lot. And admittedly there aren't you know, the

834
00:34:35,960 --> 00:34:39,920
Speaker 1: full bevy of prop bets are not available in the market. Yet.

835
00:34:40,040 --> 00:34:42,120
Speaker 1: There'll be a few more that will come out as

836
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:43,520
Speaker 1: we get closer to the game. But we've taken a

837
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,759
Speaker 1: look at what is roughly available in the market. So

838
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:47,560
Speaker 1: why don't we go ahead and start. You can what's

839
00:34:47,600 --> 00:34:49,120
Speaker 1: your top prop for the weekend?

840
00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:51,600
Speaker 2: So my top prop, and I'm realizing I'm contradicting myself.

841
00:34:51,640 --> 00:34:52,799
Speaker 2: I just said I was going to stay away from

842
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,120
Speaker 2: the Giants Cowboys game, but not with my prop. There's

843
00:34:55,120 --> 00:34:57,480
Speaker 2: a prop bet that I like in the game. I

844
00:34:57,520 --> 00:34:59,800
Speaker 2: couldn't find the exact number, but I'm assuming it's a

845
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:04,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be taking this Saquon Barkley under rushing yards

846
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:06,440
Speaker 2: for that game. I'm gonna assume it's probably gonna be

847
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 2: around eighty four. Like I said, I don't quite see yet,

848
00:35:08,480 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 2: but whatever the number is, I like the under. His

849
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,120
Speaker 2: lowest rushing total in all of last year was against

850
00:35:14,160 --> 00:35:15,920
Speaker 2: the Cowboys in Week two, so it was early in

851
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:18,080
Speaker 2: the season as well. He only gained twenty eight yards

852
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,400
Speaker 2: on eleven carries, and Cowboys gave up fifth fewest rushing

853
00:35:21,440 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: yards per game last season. So obviously there's a lot

854
00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 2: of hype bo Barkley. He is, rightfully so one of

855
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 2: the best running backs in the league, especially one of

856
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 2: the best young running backs in the league. So I

857
00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 2: think because of that, the number is gonna be higher

858
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:35,520
Speaker 2: than it should be against a Cowboys defense that can

859
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,000
Speaker 2: stop their run. So in that game, I like a

860
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,800
Speaker 2: prop bet. I like the under on Saquon Barkley's rushing yards.

861
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that's a good one because I just,

862
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,560
Speaker 1: you know, I don't see them being able to have

863
00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:49,200
Speaker 1: that many opportunities to run. I think they'll try, and

864
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,359
Speaker 1: I think Saquon will be heavily involved. But if you're

865
00:35:52,520 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 1: the Cowboys, that's what you're gonna stop. You're gonna make

866
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,759
Speaker 1: Eli Manning try to beat you through the air. So

867
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 1: I do think that putting all your effort into stopping

868
00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley on the ground is what the Cowboys are

869
00:36:04,040 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 1: going to do.

870
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:06,480
Speaker 2: And I like it. I like it.

871
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 1: I mean I feel bad because we've been in mostly

872
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 1: an agreement here. You know, I could try to fake

873
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,239
Speaker 1: it and be like, nah, dude, he's rushing for one

874
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:17,120
Speaker 1: hundred and forty, but I think it would be disingenuous.

875
00:36:17,160 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 1: So maybe you can disagree with mine here. Okay, so

876
00:36:19,760 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 1: really really rev up dig deep for this. It's not

877
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:25,120
Speaker 1: the South. But I'm going to go with Chris Carson

878
00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 1: to go one hundred rushing yards or more against the Bengals.

879
00:36:28,719 --> 00:36:31,800
Speaker 1: That's at plus two thirty five. Now I would be

880
00:36:31,880 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: fine to take these seventy five or more rushing yards,

881
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: but that's at minus one thirteen. And for the difference

882
00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 1: that you'll get on your money, I think it's more

883
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,799
Speaker 1: than worth it. The Seahawks are nine and a half

884
00:36:40,840 --> 00:36:43,600
Speaker 1: point favorites here at home on Sunday against the Bengals.

885
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,880
Speaker 1: They are the most run heavy team in the NFL.

886
00:36:46,200 --> 00:36:48,560
Speaker 1: They ran nearly fifty percent of the time last year.

887
00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,520
Speaker 1: They appear to hate Rashad Penny, and I think they're

888
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 1: going to go to Carson early, and I think they're

889
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,560
Speaker 1: going to go to Carson late once they're ahead and

890
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 1: trying to put the game on ice. He had over

891
00:36:57,560 --> 00:37:00,200
Speaker 1: one hundred yards rushing in each of his life last

892
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:02,279
Speaker 1: three games last year. I think the fact that you

893
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:04,319
Speaker 1: can get nearly two and a half times your money

894
00:37:04,360 --> 00:37:07,440
Speaker 1: on this wager struck me as pretty crazy. So it

895
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,040
Speaker 1: is my top prop of the week by far. Go

896
00:37:09,080 --> 00:37:11,400
Speaker 1: ahead and hate it, fake a disagreement, or do something.

897
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 2: I don't love it. I don't hate it, but I

898
00:37:15,840 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 2: don't love it.

899
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,840
Speaker 1: Who whoa who? I was kidding. I mean, you've got

900
00:37:19,960 --> 00:37:21,360
Speaker 1: to get on board, all right? Go ahead?

901
00:37:21,400 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 2: No?

902
00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:22,839
Speaker 1: No, no, go ahead, go ahead bye.

903
00:37:22,960 --> 00:37:24,920
Speaker 2: I guess a couple of my biggest questions would be,

904
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 2: I don't know, how are the Seahawks going to kind

905
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 2: of divvy up their their carries? Is Chris Carson? Is

906
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:31,919
Speaker 2: he going to be the workhorse for them? Is Penny

907
00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: gonna get any carries there?

908
00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:37,120
Speaker 1: I mean it's a mild risk, but given what they

909
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,920
Speaker 1: have said and given what they have shown in the preseason,

910
00:37:39,960 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 1: they appear to have no interest in getting Rashad Penny

911
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: overly involved. I think this is going to be a

912
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 1: game where Chris Carson, I think the whole season, as

913
00:37:48,160 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 1: long as he doesn't get injured, I think they are

914
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: gonna heavily push Carson. And you know, I in addition

915
00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 1: to being a betting pros on the list, I'm also

916
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 1: you know, I do fantasy workover at fantasypros dot Com.

917
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,279
Speaker 1: And Carson has been one of the biggest risers from

918
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:03,440
Speaker 1: a fantasy perspective, and a lot of that is because

919
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: every indication coming out of Seattle is that they want

920
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,359
Speaker 1: him to just be the bell cow back, and I mean,

921
00:38:08,400 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 1: Penny will get some, but I think, you know, as

922
00:38:10,920 --> 00:38:12,839
Speaker 1: they did at the end of last year, I think

923
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:16,000
Speaker 1: twenty carries for the game is well within reach, if

924
00:38:16,120 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: not more so. I think, you know, just given this game,

925
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:21,279
Speaker 1: I think they're going to go to him pretty much

926
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,919
Speaker 1: the entire game. I mean, the worry, honestly, in terms

927
00:38:23,960 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 1: of the split, would be much more of once the

928
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: game is in hand, as you'd expect it to be.

929
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: The Seahawks are nine and a half point favorites. As

930
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 1: I said that, maybe they would say, Okay, let's save

931
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:34,080
Speaker 1: our guy here, let's go to the backups. But other

932
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: than that, I really think that he is going to

933
00:38:36,160 --> 00:38:38,560
Speaker 1: be He's going to get the vast majority of the carries.

934
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I mean the Bengals did give up the

935
00:38:40,200 --> 00:38:43,080
Speaker 2: fourth most rushing yards in the league per game last year,

936
00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:46,440
Speaker 2: so they can give up yards in the ground, and

937
00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: like you said, Seahawks are probably gonna get up so

938
00:38:48,080 --> 00:38:49,560
Speaker 2: they will have to run the ball. So my only

939
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:52,080
Speaker 2: concern would be just how they're going to split the carries.

940
00:38:52,440 --> 00:38:53,800
Speaker 2: That would be my one concern. But other than that,

941
00:38:53,840 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 2: I like it, especially at that price too.

942
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 1: You see, you see I pushed you in. Yeah, you

943
00:38:58,719 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: take it. And again a big thing is the price.

944
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 1: I mean, plus two thirty five seems crazy to me.

945
00:39:06,160 --> 00:39:08,400
Speaker 1: Basically getting two and a half times on your money

946
00:39:08,640 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 1: seems crazy to me. For a guy, it's not like

947
00:39:10,040 --> 00:39:12,160
Speaker 1: one hundred yards is this magical number. He did it

948
00:39:12,239 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 1: his last three games last season, and everything coming out

949
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: of them is that they love him. I think he's

950
00:39:16,560 --> 00:39:17,719
Speaker 1: going to get all the work. I think they're going

951
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 1: to run, run, run as much as possible. So I

952
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:21,640
Speaker 1: do like that. So you like Saquon Barkley. Again, the

953
00:39:21,719 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 1: number is a little fuzzy. It's somewhere in the low eighties.

954
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:27,240
Speaker 1: We put it at eighty four, probably to be generous

955
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,040
Speaker 1: because I think it might be around right around there.

956
00:39:30,080 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 1: But it's going to be in the low eighties. And

957
00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 1: you like under which I think is a good pick.

958
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 1: And I like Chris Carson a little more specific to

959
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,720
Speaker 1: go one hundred rushing yards or more against the Bengals.

960
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 1: And that said, plus two thirty five, all right, man,

961
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,440
Speaker 1: that is going to do it for today's show. That

962
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: was really great. Ian. I remind everyone where they can

963
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:47,080
Speaker 1: find you and your work.

964
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, so you can find me on Twitter. That's where

965
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 2: most my work is posted. There, we at least get

966
00:39:52,440 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 2: links to everything there, so my tag is AI Nmacos

967
00:39:58,040 --> 00:39:59,920
Speaker 2: and then of course head over to odds Shark doc

968
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:02,759
Speaker 2: Off for any betting information there, and I do have

969
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:04,879
Speaker 2: some occasional articles up there, but for the most part,

970
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,959
Speaker 2: you'll see everything I do, including all my written stuff

971
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:08,480
Speaker 2: in videos over on Twitter.

972
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:10,800
Speaker 1: You can also find him at my house this weekend

973
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:13,800
Speaker 1: where he's going to be laying some betting odds on

974
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 1: the kid's soccer game. As I said, well, that was

975
00:40:16,760 --> 00:40:20,520
Speaker 1: really enjoyable. I thought your picks were solid. I really

976
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 1: did not disagree with many, if any of them at all.

977
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: I'm sorry about that. Next time I will definitely force

978
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 1: some disagreement, but I hope we can do it again

979
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:28,399
Speaker 1: during the season.

980
00:40:28,480 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely, man, it's a lot of fun. Good luck

981
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:31,240
Speaker 2: to both of us this weekend.

982
00:40:31,560 --> 00:40:33,520
Speaker 1: Absolutely so. I do want to remind everyone before we

983
00:40:33,600 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 1: go about bet MGM, where you can place your first

984
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,000
Speaker 1: waiter of up to one hundred dollars risk free, and Sideboss,

985
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 1: where they're offering a free to play season long NFL

986
00:40:41,480 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 1: handicapping contest with fifty thousand dollars in cash prizes. Good

987
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:48,120
Speaker 1: luck with your wagers this weekend, my friends. We'll be

988
00:40:48,200 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: back breaking down the early lines next week. That the

989
00:41:16,800 --> 00:41:19,120
Speaker 1: fact that have not been not