1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:03,880 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, I'm Matthew Freeman matt E fi Orkle. Welcome 2 00:00:03,920 --> 00:00:06,320 Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought to you by bet MGM, 3 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:08,240 Speaker 1: where you can get a risk free bet of up 4 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:10,280 Speaker 1: to one thousand dollars when you use the highly original 5 00:00:10,280 --> 00:00:13,160 Speaker 1: promo code of Betting Pros with your first deposit. Here 6 00:00:13,200 --> 00:00:15,840 Speaker 1: with me to talk NFL Week ten best bets is 7 00:00:16,079 --> 00:00:19,120 Speaker 1: Jill Gallant. Jill, Did I get that right? 8 00:00:19,960 --> 00:00:23,800 Speaker 2: You were spot on Matthew, not Freeman Freedoman. 9 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:25,560 Speaker 1: Okay, there we are all right now that we know 10 00:00:25,680 --> 00:00:29,520 Speaker 1: each other's names and we can enunciate them correctly. Jill 11 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:33,159 Speaker 1: is a sports betting analyst at Action Network. Awesome to 12 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,120 Speaker 1: have him on the show. Jill, how is this season 13 00:00:35,159 --> 00:00:35,640 Speaker 1: going for you? 14 00:00:36,720 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 2: It's going well. I will say that touchdowns and just 15 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:44,280 Speaker 2: unders in general are trending, so from an understandpoint, doesn't 16 00:00:44,360 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 2: lend itself that well for myself, who routinely is betting 17 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,879 Speaker 2: touchdown scores. So I'm starting to get a little bit 18 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,120 Speaker 2: of momentum lately. But the first three to four weeks, 19 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 2: the first six weeks, like it was, they were trending 20 00:00:54,520 --> 00:00:57,360 Speaker 2: like almost like one hundred touchdowns less in comparison to 21 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:01,480 Speaker 2: two years previous, right, so try just maybe the margin 22 00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 2: for ARA was just slimmer. So now in the last 23 00:01:03,560 --> 00:01:05,880 Speaker 2: couple of weeks, I think everybody's making adjustments to the 24 00:01:05,880 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 2: odds are starting to see adjustments as well, so it's 25 00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:10,880 Speaker 2: starting to be a positive aggression, as they say. 26 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,479 Speaker 1: Yes. So this was going to be my follow up question, 27 00:01:13,800 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 1: scoring is down. You are the touchdown prop guy, so 28 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: I'm imagining that for first touchdown scored there really hasn't 29 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: been much of an impact, but for any time touchdowns, 30 00:01:25,400 --> 00:01:28,959 Speaker 1: massive impact. And you say the market has at this 31 00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 1: point seemingly adjusted for it. 32 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 2: That's right. And where you're seeing it too, is in 33 00:01:33,840 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 2: the range between kind of like the sweet spot that 34 00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,080 Speaker 2: I think a lot of betters like to look because 35 00:01:38,080 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 2: I don't think a lot of guys like to bet 36 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,959 Speaker 2: on minus odd touchdown players. They like to bet on 37 00:01:42,000 --> 00:01:43,959 Speaker 2: the guys in between, like the plus one ten to 38 00:01:44,000 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 2: plus two hundred range, and those are hitting at like 39 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:49,800 Speaker 2: less than thirty percent this season, so comparative to the 40 00:01:49,840 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 2: implied probability of what that odds is, it's a big shakeup. 41 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: So now you're starting to see it kind of trend 42 00:01:56,040 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: back towards that. But what you're seeing right now is 43 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,120 Speaker 2: you're still seeing some huge long shots come through. Like 44 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 2: right now, the leading touchdown score for the season is 45 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,040 Speaker 2: still like a running back three on the Giants, Gary Brightwell, 46 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,519 Speaker 2: he cash is like a plus four thousand guy like 47 00:02:10,560 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 2: you know what I mean, back like when they played 48 00:02:12,000 --> 00:02:15,080 Speaker 2: in London against the Packers. And that's kind of what 49 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 2: you're seeing right now. As the top ten touchdown scores 50 00:02:17,160 --> 00:02:19,800 Speaker 2: from a profit standpoint, most of them are backups. The 51 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:21,560 Speaker 2: only guy that's actually in the top ten that is 52 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:24,480 Speaker 2: actually getting profit and as a routine starter is actually 53 00:02:24,560 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 2: Joe Burrow. Right now, he's looking at about seventeen units 54 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 2: of profit if you would just blindly bet his touchdown 55 00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:30,280 Speaker 2: prop every week. 56 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:33,240 Speaker 1: All right, all right, so good stuff there. I mean 57 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:36,280 Speaker 1: week ten, are we are now officially in double digits 58 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,520 Speaker 1: and over you know, halfway through or just about halfway 59 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:41,799 Speaker 1: through the season, you know, week nine marking the halfway 60 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:44,919 Speaker 1: point of the eighteen week campaign. So into week ten, 61 00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: it feels like it's it's getting easier here at this point. 62 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:53,119 Speaker 1: And this morning on Thursday, I published my projected spreads 63 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:55,639 Speaker 1: for every game with a few best bets, and Jill, 64 00:02:55,680 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: you've got some bets that you like, so we're going 65 00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,840 Speaker 1: to run through them. In the first game. I want 66 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: to look at here is Dolphins hosting the Browns, and 67 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:07,240 Speaker 1: this number is three and a half across the market. 68 00:03:07,240 --> 00:03:09,880 Speaker 1: I'm looking now at the Betting Pros odds page three 69 00:03:09,960 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: and a half. At bet MGM. Again, you can get 70 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: the risk free bet of up to a thousand dollars 71 00:03:13,880 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: with the promo code betting Pros with your first deposit. 72 00:03:16,880 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: I have this projected. Let me see. I pulled up 73 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:22,880 Speaker 1: a lot of things before we started recording. One of 74 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: the things I didn't pull up was the article that 75 00:03:25,919 --> 00:03:28,440 Speaker 1: I published, So I need to pull that up so 76 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:31,760 Speaker 1: I can remind myself of exactly what my projection is 77 00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,360 Speaker 1: and why I'm betting on the Dolphins in the first place. 78 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 1: But I have this projected at let me see five 79 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:41,040 Speaker 1: points here, and I think that the I mean, first 80 00:03:41,080 --> 00:03:44,120 Speaker 1: of all trends, some people like them, some people don't. 81 00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: But I think one thing that is undeniable, and we 82 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: saw this especially early in the year. Miami has a 83 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 1: real home field advantage with the temperature discrepancy there. And 84 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: you know quarterback to Atugovailoa at home is ten and 85 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:59,760 Speaker 1: four against the spread, and that information is actually courtesy 86 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: the bet Labs database at Action Network, a tremendous resource. 87 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: I think this game, you can obviously look at the offense. 88 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: Tua has been fantastic and outside chance he wins MVP 89 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:16,200 Speaker 1: probably doesn't happen, but outside chance that it happens, So 90 00:04:16,360 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 1: you can look at the offense for the Dolphins to 91 00:04:18,880 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: see you know why they would potentially cover here. I'm 92 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 1: looking at the other side of the ball as well. 93 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: I think the Dolphins run defense going against the Browns 94 00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 1: run offense will be one of the keys of this game. 95 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 1: The Browns offense, it is built under rushing attack. They 96 00:04:33,080 --> 00:04:35,640 Speaker 1: funnel everything through the running game and it's one of 97 00:04:35,640 --> 00:04:37,680 Speaker 1: the best in the league. You know, number one in 98 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,839 Speaker 1: rush EPA, number three in rush success rate, number two 99 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:44,080 Speaker 1: in rush DVOA. The thing is, the Dolphins are actually 100 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: top ten against the run as well, so it's not 101 00:04:46,600 --> 00:04:50,720 Speaker 1: like it's a great matchup for them. Defensive tackles Christian Wilkins, 102 00:04:50,839 --> 00:04:53,920 Speaker 1: Zack Seiler, both of those guys have strong PFF run 103 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,720 Speaker 1: defense grades, and the Browns it looks like they might 104 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 1: be without again right guard Wyatt Teller, who's dealing with 105 00:04:59,720 --> 00:05:03,280 Speaker 1: the CA injury. He hasn't played since exiting Week six early. 106 00:05:03,400 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 1: So if the Browns can't run the ball with their 107 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,960 Speaker 1: usual success, They're going to struggle to sustain drives, score points, 108 00:05:10,040 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 1: and most importantly, keep the explosive Dolphins offense on the sideline. 109 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: So I think you put all that together. For me, 110 00:05:18,360 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: there's value at three and a half, even though you're 111 00:05:20,880 --> 00:05:23,280 Speaker 1: going above the key number three. Obviously you would love 112 00:05:23,320 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: to get it at three. Even at three and a half, 113 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: I still think that there's value. Jill. I know that 114 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: you are looking at this game and there's a bet 115 00:05:29,680 --> 00:05:30,520 Speaker 1: that you have in mind. 116 00:05:30,960 --> 00:05:33,799 Speaker 2: You like the over, yeah, And I like the over. 117 00:05:34,720 --> 00:05:36,719 Speaker 2: It could be forty nine and a half depending on 118 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 2: the sports book right now. I think I'm seeing it 119 00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:41,080 Speaker 2: at bet MGMF forty nine right now. So I do 120 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 2: like the over in this spot mainly because while I 121 00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 2: do agree with you that the Dolphins are fairly good 122 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 2: in between the twenties as far as stopping the run, 123 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 2: I think the Browns should be able to counteract that, 124 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:55,640 Speaker 2: mainly because of how much they do run the ball, 125 00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:58,880 Speaker 2: regardless of game script and situation, and also just because 126 00:05:58,880 --> 00:06:01,040 Speaker 2: of their efficiency and doing it their first overall in 127 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 2: runs of twenty or more yards, and when you have 128 00:06:03,040 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 2: a guy like Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to be 129 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: able to kind of change it up and be able 130 00:06:06,560 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 2: to give defenses different looks, I think it just keeps 131 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 2: defenses off balance in comparison to some of the offenses 132 00:06:13,320 --> 00:06:15,920 Speaker 2: that they have faced. Now. The other thing, too, is 133 00:06:16,160 --> 00:06:18,520 Speaker 2: the Dolphins, even though they do rank top ten in 134 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 2: that category, eleven rushing touchdowns this year, that's bottom five 135 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,160 Speaker 2: in the NFL, and they just let that Bears offense 136 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:26,360 Speaker 2: just kind of do like a junk offense on them 137 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:29,760 Speaker 2: and score thirty two on them. And although I do 138 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:33,159 Speaker 2: think Wyatteller right now and David Njoku may not play, 139 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,080 Speaker 2: you know, it's kind of up in the air right now. 140 00:06:35,120 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 2: I'm not sure if I'm willing to kind of say 141 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 2: that the Browns run game will be neutralized just because 142 00:06:40,440 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 2: those two guys don't play. But I do think, you know, 143 00:06:42,720 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 2: the fact that they are second in rush yards and 144 00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 2: touchdowns this season, I think that could put them in 145 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 2: a spot where they could get up early, maybe put 146 00:06:48,680 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 2: up two quick touchdowns and then put half to put 147 00:06:50,880 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 2: the Dolphins offense. Explosive pass offense in play where they're 148 00:06:55,120 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 2: going to have to start throwing to guys like a 149 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,760 Speaker 2: Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle, who've combined for you know, 150 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,800 Speaker 2: five hundred receiving herds just in the last two weeks. 151 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 2: And that's part of almost like it's not a gimmick. 152 00:07:05,680 --> 00:07:07,240 Speaker 2: But at the same time too, it could just throw 153 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:09,600 Speaker 2: it up to Tyreek and get an easy DPI and 154 00:07:09,640 --> 00:07:12,320 Speaker 2: put themselves in scoring position right there. But this game, 155 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:14,280 Speaker 2: I find is just a great recipe for and over 156 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:18,560 Speaker 2: because you have two decent offenses and overall struggling defense. 157 00:07:18,600 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: It's like, I know, obviously they do well from a 158 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 2: run standpoint, but they're still allowing over twenty five points 159 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 2: per game and each average right around twenty four points 160 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 2: per game. Both of that is around the top ten 161 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 2: in offense. So five of the Browns eight games this 162 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:34,240 Speaker 2: season have seen scores over fifty points. I mean, theyll 163 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:37,280 Speaker 2: have thirty points from the Jets offense, and to me, 164 00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 2: that's as much as an indictment on that defense than anything. Right, So, 165 00:07:42,800 --> 00:07:45,280 Speaker 2: from a fifty standpoint, fifty burger, I don't find that 166 00:07:45,320 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 2: to be an insurmountable number. Now, once you start getting 167 00:07:47,760 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: into pass the key number fifty, you get into fifty 168 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 2: one and a half, maybe it gets a little bit 169 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:53,320 Speaker 2: trickier to feel good about it over, But out of 170 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 2: forty nine and a half, I like the over in 171 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 2: the spot. 172 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm with you there. If I had to lean 173 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: on a side for the total, I would be going over. 174 00:08:02,120 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 1: And that does, you know, kind of play into the 175 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: idea of if the Dolphins are able to cover by 176 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,600 Speaker 1: a lot of points, score a lot of points, this 177 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:12,360 Speaker 1: one could easily go over. Now another game that really 178 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: catches my eye and I'm one hundred percent with you 179 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 1: on this the Steelers. You have them on the money line, 180 00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 1: and I like it. You know, I did a study 181 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 1: earlier this year looking at underdogs, and you know, historically, 182 00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,480 Speaker 1: if you like an underdog, even anywhere under seven points, 183 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:34,080 Speaker 1: you know, six and a half or less historically has 184 00:08:34,120 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: been more profitable to bet them on the money line 185 00:08:36,760 --> 00:08:38,760 Speaker 1: instead of the spread. And you know, you can kind 186 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:41,080 Speaker 1: of think about all the reasons why that might make sense. 187 00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: You like Steelers on the money line. Talk to me 188 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:45,360 Speaker 1: about what you're seeing in this game. 189 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, you're getting the Tomlin raw Ross situation here, especially 190 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,560 Speaker 2: coming off the buy. I mean it's the Steelers are 191 00:08:51,559 --> 00:08:53,319 Speaker 2: probably gonna be the most bet underdog of the week. 192 00:08:53,360 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 2: I don't really think we can dispute that. Maybe Seahawks, 193 00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:59,000 Speaker 2: depending on how people are feeling about Seahawks Island. But 194 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,840 Speaker 2: I mean, Kenny Pickett is finally going to get what 195 00:09:01,880 --> 00:09:04,680 Speaker 2: I would call appropriate practice time with the ones like 196 00:09:04,720 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 2: coming off of by actually being able to put in 197 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,000 Speaker 2: a proper game plan instead of just being thrown in 198 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:12,800 Speaker 2: at halftime to replace Mitch Trubisky. And also the defense 199 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:14,520 Speaker 2: might be getting a little bit of a jolt this 200 00:09:14,559 --> 00:09:17,000 Speaker 2: week from TJ. Watt and actually apply some pressure on 201 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 2: Andy Dalton. And you saw in that Ravens game on Monday, 202 00:09:19,520 --> 00:09:22,520 Speaker 2: especially with the Saints likely coming off a short week 203 00:09:22,559 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 2: as well, that anytime the Ravens started to apply pressure, 204 00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 2: Andy Dalton became Andy Dalton again, and it was actually 205 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:30,520 Speaker 2: pretty alarming of how the Saints could not move the 206 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 2: ball at all. And you know, Mike tom Win at 207 00:09:32,800 --> 00:09:34,760 Speaker 2: this point, especially with Andy Dalton, I think he's pretty 208 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:36,600 Speaker 2: familiar with Andy Dalton at this point as far as 209 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,480 Speaker 2: player tendencies, and when he was with the Bengals he 210 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,600 Speaker 2: was two and six straight up in eight career games 211 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,720 Speaker 2: that I still call it heinz Field. It's Heinsfield in 212 00:09:44,720 --> 00:09:46,440 Speaker 2: my heart. I can't keep up with all the new 213 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 2: sponsorship names. But you know those two wins they came 214 00:09:49,840 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 2: back in like twenty twelve and twenty fifteen. He's lost 215 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:54,680 Speaker 2: three straight games in Pittsburgh. One of those wins was 216 00:09:54,720 --> 00:09:57,640 Speaker 2: Ben Roethlisberger didn't even play, So I mean you got 217 00:09:57,640 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 2: to think Kenny Pickett is a little bit of an 218 00:09:59,040 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 2: upgrade than the backup at that time. Now, the Steelers 219 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 2: as a home dog, a ton of trends that support that. 220 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 2: You know, they're thirteen and seven straight up since twenty ten, 221 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:11,360 Speaker 2: thirteen three and four against the spread, and the run 222 00:10:11,360 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 2: game should actually see a little bit of an improvement 223 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,079 Speaker 2: this week. Now, this isn't meant to be an overall 224 00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:18,240 Speaker 2: knock on Najie Harris, but that list Frank injury is 225 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: really affecting his run ability, Like he's only averaging three 226 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,680 Speaker 2: point three yards per carry. So Jalen Ward is actually 227 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:24,840 Speaker 2: going to be able to come in here. I think 228 00:10:24,840 --> 00:10:26,000 Speaker 2: he's going to be able to move the ball a 229 00:10:26,040 --> 00:10:29,600 Speaker 2: little bit more effectively for this offense, and also from 230 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,680 Speaker 2: a touchdown perspective. Really like Deontay Johnson, to score a 231 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:35,120 Speaker 2: touchdown this week and finally break through because if no 232 00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:37,760 Speaker 2: Marshawn Lattimore is there. I mean, he's got what seventy 233 00:10:37,800 --> 00:10:40,079 Speaker 2: six targets already this season and he has yet to 234 00:10:40,120 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 2: catch a touchdown. He's getting routinely double digit targets every week. 235 00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:45,360 Speaker 2: I think Kenny Pickett and the Steelers are going to 236 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:46,080 Speaker 2: roll in this game. 237 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:49,600 Speaker 1: Yeah. The Deontay Johnson call, I mean I put him 238 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:53,040 Speaker 1: in my Fantasy favorite article each week because he I mean, 239 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 1: he's getting so many targets, He's getting some carries at 240 00:10:56,640 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: some point, At some point, targets snaps have to turn 241 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:05,480 Speaker 1: into yards and touchdowns at some point, it happens. And 242 00:11:05,480 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 1: now with the departure of Chase Claypool, maybe he starts 243 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 1: to see even a little more opportunities both in terms 244 00:11:11,679 --> 00:11:15,000 Speaker 1: of target volume and you know, maybe operating downfield a 245 00:11:15,000 --> 00:11:17,959 Speaker 1: little bit more, moved around the formation a little bit more. 246 00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: We just we have to see. But I'm with you 247 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: on Deontay Johnson, and with you, I mean, really for 248 00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:25,360 Speaker 1: the entire thesis here of this play. I mean, Mike 249 00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:28,920 Speaker 1: Tomlin as an underdog, absolutely love it. Mike Tomlin at 250 00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:32,439 Speaker 1: home perfect. You put those two together, and I mean 251 00:11:32,600 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: Tomlin against the spread fifteen three and three for his 252 00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 1: career as a home underdog, Like that is an unfathomable 253 00:11:41,480 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: type of against the spread record over I mean over 254 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: a decade of time. So absolutely fantastic. This is the 255 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:52,679 Speaker 1: type of spot where you historically do see the Steelers outperforming. 256 00:11:52,720 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 1: I hadn't even thought about the Andy Dalton connection of 257 00:11:57,160 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 1: that Steelers staff having familiarity with Salton from his years 258 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:04,640 Speaker 1: in the division, and it makes sense, you know. And 259 00:12:04,880 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: jj Watt, I mean not jj Wat tj Watt. Yeah, 260 00:12:07,840 --> 00:12:11,199 Speaker 1: if he returns man this this line. 261 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:13,199 Speaker 2: You could see it. No, he's one of the few 262 00:12:13,200 --> 00:12:15,760 Speaker 2: defensive players that could actually move the line like that, 263 00:12:15,920 --> 00:12:18,320 Speaker 2: and he floats all boats. So it's just one of 264 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,360 Speaker 2: those things that like you saw in Week one how 265 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 2: effective he was of causing pressure. He only finished with 266 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 2: one sack, but like it felt like you probably could 267 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:27,679 Speaker 2: have had ten in that game. And if he's back, 268 00:12:27,880 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 2: I mean yeah, like it's just that's what It just 269 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 2: immediately elevates the secondary. You know, Micky Fitzpatrick might get 270 00:12:33,760 --> 00:12:36,240 Speaker 2: an interception in that game as a result. I just 271 00:12:36,280 --> 00:12:38,920 Speaker 2: think that the Steelers, like there's just not really many 272 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 2: ways that you could talk me out of it, other 273 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:43,280 Speaker 2: than telling me that they have a rookie quarterback. That's fine, 274 00:12:43,920 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 2: I know. 275 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,680 Speaker 1: And it's not just edge rusher TJ. Watt. You've also 276 00:12:47,720 --> 00:12:50,680 Speaker 1: got safety demonte Cazi, who has a chance to return 277 00:12:50,720 --> 00:12:53,840 Speaker 1: off of ir this week. I have this line right 278 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:59,400 Speaker 1: now projected at Steelers zero point seventy five underdogs. Now, 279 00:12:59,559 --> 00:13:02,960 Speaker 1: the thing is there's room for improvement in this line, 280 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,160 Speaker 1: obviously if Watt returns, But then you look at all 281 00:13:06,160 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: of the injuries and you mentioned Marshaun Lattimore. You know, 282 00:13:09,679 --> 00:13:11,839 Speaker 1: potential he doesn't play in this game. I don't think 283 00:13:11,840 --> 00:13:14,839 Speaker 1: he's going to play. You know. Coach James Allen has 284 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 1: said that there's really no timeline on his return. Through 285 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 1: two days this week. He hasn't practiced. He's missed multiple 286 00:13:21,760 --> 00:13:24,439 Speaker 1: weeks already with the abdomen injury. So you got that 287 00:13:24,800 --> 00:13:28,080 Speaker 1: going for the Steelers. And then on the other side, 288 00:13:28,200 --> 00:13:32,120 Speaker 1: the offensive line for the Steelers is really injured and 289 00:13:32,160 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 1: people kind of forget, like left tackle like Trevor Penning, 290 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,440 Speaker 1: their starting left tackle has been out the entire season. 291 00:13:38,280 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 1: Left guard andrews Pete exited last week with a tricep injury. 292 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:46,480 Speaker 1: He's yet to practice this week. I don't think he's 293 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: gonna play. And then you've got safety not safety center 294 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:55,080 Speaker 1: Eric McCoy, who also exited last week with a calf injury. 295 00:13:55,280 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: So you've got the entire left side of that offensive 296 00:13:58,760 --> 00:14:03,040 Speaker 1: line that might be out and TJ. Watt returning. I mean, 297 00:14:03,280 --> 00:14:04,839 Speaker 1: come on, I. 298 00:14:04,800 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 2: Don't forget about Ryan Ramcheck on the other side as well. 299 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:12,120 Speaker 2: He hasn't been practiced. Like again, it's a hospital infirmary 300 00:14:12,200 --> 00:14:14,040 Speaker 2: right now. Like when you think of the offensive line, 301 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,760 Speaker 2: I'm really just a lot of defensive injuries injuries across 302 00:14:16,760 --> 00:14:18,840 Speaker 2: the board for the Saints, So I just think that 303 00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 2: they're over match. We saw what happened on Monday when 304 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:23,240 Speaker 2: they were kind of playing against the defense that was 305 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 2: rejuvenated with Roquan Smith coming in. Now, I'm not going 306 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:27,640 Speaker 2: to put the Steelers defense on the level of the 307 00:14:27,720 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 2: Ravens defense, but you just see what happens with that 308 00:14:30,400 --> 00:14:33,440 Speaker 2: offense when they get pressure, and I just don't really 309 00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:34,840 Speaker 2: see how the Saints are going to be able to 310 00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:37,600 Speaker 2: move the ball outside of maybe a couple of Camara runs. 311 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 1: Yeah. And the thing is, if they are so injured 312 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: on the offensive line, I think they're going to struggle 313 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:45,080 Speaker 1: to run the ball anyway, because I think with TJ. 314 00:14:45,160 --> 00:14:46,800 Speaker 1: Watt there and then you got on the interior of 315 00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,440 Speaker 1: the defensive line, Cameron Hayward, Larry Ogunjobi like, that's a 316 00:14:50,480 --> 00:14:53,640 Speaker 1: top eight defensive line. I say, conservatively, a top eight 317 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: defensive line. And that's you know, against the pass and 318 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,600 Speaker 1: against their run and so I I mean, if the 319 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:01,080 Speaker 1: Saints are that injured on the offensive line, I think 320 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:05,040 Speaker 1: they're going to struggle passing and running. So that means 321 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,520 Speaker 1: I very much like the Steelers here. I'm with you there. 322 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 1: And by the way, I bet this at plus two 323 00:15:12,120 --> 00:15:14,760 Speaker 1: and a half. It is one and a half now 324 00:15:14,840 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: in the market. I still think there's value at one 325 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: and a half. But I did get it at too. 326 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:20,240 Speaker 1: Logged it in the Betting pros app where you can 327 00:15:20,280 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: sync up with sports books. You get free betting advice 328 00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:25,400 Speaker 1: and picks. You can track different experts, track line movement, 329 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: track your own bets. You get sports betting alerts. We 330 00:15:28,200 --> 00:15:31,120 Speaker 1: monitor all the major sports books so you can see 331 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: which book is offering the best line on any bet 332 00:15:33,640 --> 00:15:36,120 Speaker 1: at any given moment. So download the app today in 333 00:15:36,160 --> 00:15:40,080 Speaker 1: the Apple or Google Play Store. Okay, another game I'm 334 00:15:40,120 --> 00:15:43,240 Speaker 1: looking at here. It's very fishy of me. I don't 335 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: care Chiefs. I'm on the Chiefs here, going against the Jags, 336 00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:50,200 Speaker 1: the Chiefs at home nine and a half point favorites. 337 00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: I think this number should be ten. Like within the market, 338 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 1: it should be ten. I haven't projected at eleven point five, 339 00:15:57,160 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: so I'm still seeing value anything below the number of ten. 340 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:05,240 Speaker 1: I very much like it in this spot. And you know, normally, 341 00:16:05,280 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: I mean there are a number of things that you 342 00:16:06,800 --> 00:16:11,160 Speaker 1: could point to, but in the end, Travis Kelce I 343 00:16:11,160 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: mean going against a Jags defense that is just totally 344 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: ill equipped to face him. I highlight Travis kelcey my 345 00:16:18,600 --> 00:16:21,840 Speaker 1: fantasy favorite piece this week. But he has either ninety 346 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 1: yards or touchdown in every game this year but one. 347 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: He leads all tight ends and targets red zone, targets, 348 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 1: plays the twenty plus yards like he's Travis kelce Like 349 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: he's awesome. We know who he is. Easily leads the 350 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 1: Chiefs and receptions yards, receiving touchdowns, and regardless of matchup, 351 00:16:37,040 --> 00:16:39,120 Speaker 1: he tends to dominate. The thing is, he's got an 352 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 1: incredible matchup in this game. The Jags are number twenty 353 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:46,040 Speaker 1: two dead last in the league and defensive pass dvoa 354 00:16:46,280 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 1: against tight ends. And on top of that, safety Rayshawn 355 00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:53,360 Speaker 1: Jenkins is out with the concussion, so he hasn't returned 356 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,720 Speaker 1: to practice yet. I'm kind of skeptical he's gonna play 357 00:16:56,760 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: this week. He's in the concussion protocol. And then there 358 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: are all safeties. Andre Cisco almost never plays up in 359 00:17:03,000 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: the box, so it's not as if he's going to 360 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:07,800 Speaker 1: man up Travis kelce and Andrew Wininguard. I mean, he's 361 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:10,880 Speaker 1: a special teamer. And then you look at the linebackers. Man, 362 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: those guys are exploitable, right. You've got Devin Lloyd, You've 363 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: got I'm not gonna be able to say his name, 364 00:17:17,720 --> 00:17:23,040 Speaker 1: Foy side Olakun. Both those guys total liabilities in coverage. 365 00:17:23,080 --> 00:17:26,480 Speaker 1: They've been targeted ninety five times. They've allowed eight hundred 366 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:30,119 Speaker 1: and seven yards on seventy eight receptions. Like Travis Kelcey 367 00:17:30,480 --> 00:17:34,159 Speaker 1: even in triple coverage against these guys, he's open. So 368 00:17:34,600 --> 00:17:37,720 Speaker 1: if the Jags can't contain Kelsey, I don't think there's 369 00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: any way they are stopping limiting that Chiefs offense from 370 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,840 Speaker 1: just absolutely going off. I know the Chiefs at home 371 00:17:46,240 --> 00:17:48,720 Speaker 1: nine and a half is a big number. It's it's 372 00:17:48,840 --> 00:17:51,360 Speaker 1: you know, it feels fishy. I don't care. I still 373 00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 1: see value on this, Jill. I don't know if you 374 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: have an opinion on this game either way, and if 375 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:57,479 Speaker 1: you disagree, it's totally fine. 376 00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 2: No. I was actually gonna say, the one edge that 377 00:17:59,880 --> 00:18:02,040 Speaker 2: I don't think you mentioned here is Andy Reid over 378 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 2: Doug Peterson. Like right now, I just think Doug Peterson 379 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 2: decision making and a lot of the things that he's 380 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:09,640 Speaker 2: been doing, especially in games, Like He'll get a little 381 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 2: bit of credit here for the way that they rallied 382 00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 2: the team in the second half against the Raiders, But 383 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:16,160 Speaker 2: the first half they did not look prepared at all, 384 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:18,440 Speaker 2: and you just mentioned about how their secondary was getting 385 00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:21,120 Speaker 2: gashed like DeVante Adams had nine catches in one hundred 386 00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:23,679 Speaker 2: and fifty yards and two touchdowns in the first half, 387 00:18:23,720 --> 00:18:26,360 Speaker 2: Like they didn't know what to do to stop that offense. 388 00:18:27,400 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 2: This is not the Raiders. The Chiefs are going to 389 00:18:29,440 --> 00:18:32,359 Speaker 2: be consistent front to back and again a matchup nightmare 390 00:18:32,440 --> 00:18:34,840 Speaker 2: like a Travis Kelce, a guy who gets taken routinely 391 00:18:34,920 --> 00:18:37,199 Speaker 2: like top five in every fantasy draft that you ever do, 392 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 2: especially in PPR situations. But I think that's been the 393 00:18:40,600 --> 00:18:43,240 Speaker 2: biggest thing because I feel like Doug Peterson again, he's 394 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,120 Speaker 2: one of those Padawans of the Andy Reid coaching tree. 395 00:18:46,240 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 2: But at the same time, that guy's been dining out 396 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,240 Speaker 2: on the Philly Special now for like five years. He 397 00:18:51,320 --> 00:18:53,920 Speaker 2: is not a good coach like I honestly think, yes, 398 00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:56,000 Speaker 2: he's a step up from Urban Meyer. But at the 399 00:18:56,040 --> 00:18:58,680 Speaker 2: same time, the Jags offense and this Jags defense in general, 400 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:01,600 Speaker 2: just the overall the team just very much. You know, 401 00:19:01,680 --> 00:19:03,640 Speaker 2: they caught teams off guard. You know, at the start 402 00:19:03,680 --> 00:19:05,640 Speaker 2: of the year once kind of teams figured them out 403 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:07,560 Speaker 2: and realized, oh, you can we can actually make Trevor 404 00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 2: Lawrence try to pass on us and beat us and 405 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,240 Speaker 2: he can't do it. That's when I realized that that 406 00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:14,680 Speaker 2: team was starting to go downhill. So if Travis Etienne, 407 00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:15,920 Speaker 2: I think he might be the guy that might be 408 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,960 Speaker 2: able to keep this offense in place and be able 409 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,160 Speaker 2: to keep this team in the game. But the Chiefs 410 00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:23,280 Speaker 2: run defense has actually been a little underrated as well 411 00:19:23,320 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 2: this year, so and then again it might also not 412 00:19:26,200 --> 00:19:28,359 Speaker 2: even matter because the Chiefs might have go up twenty 413 00:19:28,359 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 2: one nothing and they might just abandon the run altogether. 414 00:19:30,800 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like the hope that the Jags have 415 00:19:34,320 --> 00:19:38,840 Speaker 1: is eating You mentioned who's been fantastic, especially recently, ever 416 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,320 Speaker 1: since they traded James Robinson, a full blown three down workhorse. 417 00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: It's great to see him able to produce coming back 418 00:19:45,040 --> 00:19:47,680 Speaker 1: from the non existent season he had last year because 419 00:19:47,680 --> 00:19:50,640 Speaker 1: of injury. All Right, one game that we are both 420 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 1: looking at here you have the Raiders hosting the Colts. 421 00:19:54,800 --> 00:19:57,680 Speaker 1: Oh my goodness, A lot a lot to talk about 422 00:19:57,680 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 1: with this game. But by the way, I gotta do 423 00:19:59,440 --> 00:20:01,200 Speaker 1: the plug speed. You know, the Raiders. We're giving away 424 00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:04,760 Speaker 1: a free signed Josh Jacobs Raiders jersey from Pristine Auction. 425 00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,919 Speaker 1: If you want a chance to win it, subscribe to 426 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:09,439 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment below on 427 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,399 Speaker 1: the video and we are going to announce a winner 428 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: on the channel in a future episode. To turn on 429 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:18,720 Speaker 1: those notifications. Jill Colts on the road in Las Vegas, 430 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:21,199 Speaker 1: I mean, talk to me about what you're saying in 431 00:20:21,240 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: this game. 432 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 2: I mean, all you gotta do is just watch a 433 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,719 Speaker 2: Jeff Saturday press conference and you could feel pretty good 434 00:20:26,720 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 2: about a lot of angles that you want to look at. 435 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,439 Speaker 2: But for me, the biggest angle for me is the 436 00:20:31,440 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 2: Colts offense. I'm gonna be taking under forty one and 437 00:20:33,800 --> 00:20:36,919 Speaker 2: a half. Now. We've been joking about this on the 438 00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:40,640 Speaker 2: Action Network podcast about how I'm not going to pronounce 439 00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:44,000 Speaker 2: Sam Ellinger. I'm going to be calling him Sam Ellinger 440 00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:46,400 Speaker 2: until he wins the game in the NFL. He doesn't 441 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:49,000 Speaker 2: get proper pronunciation until he wins the game in the 442 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:51,359 Speaker 2: NFL because he's got three hundred and four passing years 443 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,640 Speaker 2: and two starts. Like I get the Matt Ryan part 444 00:20:53,680 --> 00:20:55,920 Speaker 2: about the sprain shoulder and we got to replace him here, 445 00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,159 Speaker 2: but he just dyed it. And I know that you 446 00:20:58,200 --> 00:20:59,440 Speaker 2: could take it a little bit for a grain of 447 00:20:59,560 --> 00:21:01,520 Speaker 2: salt of going on the road against the Patriots and 448 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,399 Speaker 2: a built Belichick defense, so you almost want to say, Okay, 449 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 2: it can't be that bad next week. But I mean 450 00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:10,760 Speaker 2: zero for fourteen on third down, Like you can't erase 451 00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 2: that from my memory of what this offense does. And then, 452 00:21:13,600 --> 00:21:15,480 Speaker 2: of course, if you just look at this offense as 453 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 2: a whole, like outside of that miraculous comeback versus the Jaguars, 454 00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,119 Speaker 2: they've averaged ten point eight points per game, Like they 455 00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:25,000 Speaker 2: just offensively, they're nowhere and Frank Wright was supposed to 456 00:21:25,000 --> 00:21:27,199 Speaker 2: be this offensive guru to be able to do it, 457 00:21:27,240 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 2: and now they're just there. Maybe I don't even know 458 00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:30,920 Speaker 2: if they figured out who's going to be calling plays 459 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:32,640 Speaker 2: on Sunday at this point. I mean, I think they've 460 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:35,080 Speaker 2: announced it at this point. But tell me if you 461 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 2: if you have to google his name, because I guarantee 462 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,439 Speaker 2: you probably do, you don't know it right off the 463 00:21:38,440 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 2: top of your head. Now. What I was gonna say, though, 464 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:43,720 Speaker 2: is one of the positive things speaking of Josh Jacobs 465 00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 2: in this Jersey giveaway, one of the positive things the 466 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 2: Colts have been able to do is stop the run. 467 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:51,480 Speaker 2: Now they've only allowed one hundred and sixty rush yards 468 00:21:51,480 --> 00:21:54,240 Speaker 2: in the last two games against two fairly effective run 469 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:57,639 Speaker 2: offenses in both the U you know, the Commanders, you know, 470 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,200 Speaker 2: above average, but also the Patriots that's that's the bread 471 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 2: and butter, and was able to hold them to less 472 00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 2: than one hundred yards. So that's fairly impressive to do that. 473 00:22:04,840 --> 00:22:07,240 Speaker 2: But like even when they faced Derek Henry in that 474 00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: last game when they lost nineteen to ten, like he 475 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:11,439 Speaker 2: did rush for one hundred and thirty yards, but he 476 00:22:11,480 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 2: had to get thirty carries to do it like of course, 477 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:16,440 Speaker 2: like that's a Derek Henry special, but not every running 478 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:19,000 Speaker 2: back is going to be afforded thirty carries and opportunities 479 00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 2: to get to that kind of line. Now what that 480 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 2: means then is that's gonna make Derek Carr have to 481 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,159 Speaker 2: pass more. And I don't know if I'm gonna be 482 00:22:26,200 --> 00:22:29,160 Speaker 2: trusting that anytime soon, just because it's been pretty dreadful 483 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:31,680 Speaker 2: for me when I'm watching this. Like obviously we saw 484 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 2: the Devonte Adams and the connection there, but the pass 485 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:39,199 Speaker 2: offense has just been really struggling to be consistent. Like 486 00:22:39,240 --> 00:22:42,119 Speaker 2: he has eleven passing touchdowns this year, Derek Carr, but 487 00:22:42,240 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 2: only three have been in the second half. Like they 488 00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:46,800 Speaker 2: start off strong and then they just kind of phase out. 489 00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 2: I mean you even Hunter renfro and Darren Waller, both 490 00:22:49,560 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 2: of those guys just got put on IR today. So 491 00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:55,160 Speaker 2: there's two less weapons for the Raiders now. And Gilmour 492 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:59,000 Speaker 2: been one of the higher graded cornerbacks this year according 493 00:22:59,040 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 2: to PFF. You know he's going to match up with 494 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:02,359 Speaker 2: Devontae Adams. I think he should be able to at 495 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:04,760 Speaker 2: least slow him down. I don't know if you can 496 00:23:04,800 --> 00:23:06,919 Speaker 2: really slow down to Vontae Adams, but maybe just a 497 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:08,959 Speaker 2: little bit to make them work for it. But the 498 00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 2: Colts defense one of the things that they've really done 499 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 2: well as well. And again I don't want to give 500 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,119 Speaker 2: too much credit to the Colts, but just let's just 501 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 2: hear me out on this one. They've excelled in the 502 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:18,920 Speaker 2: second half. Like one of the things that they've been 503 00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:22,159 Speaker 2: really effective at doing is making halftime adjustments because they 504 00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:24,320 Speaker 2: only allow seven point three points per game in the 505 00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 2: second half, and that's fourth in the NFL. So I 506 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 2: think if Indy can hang around just a little bit, 507 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:31,199 Speaker 2: just a little bit, don't let it get too out 508 00:23:31,200 --> 00:23:33,760 Speaker 2: of control in the first half, kind of maintaining these 509 00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 2: explosive plays, I think this game is going to go 510 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,720 Speaker 2: under comfortably, and I think, you know, I still think 511 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 2: the Raiders are probably going to win very handily. I 512 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,160 Speaker 2: just think if you're going to be looking at unders 513 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,760 Speaker 2: in this game, also consider unders for Colts team totals 514 00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:47,080 Speaker 2: as well. 515 00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:51,439 Speaker 1: M hm. So this game reminds me I agree with 516 00:23:51,480 --> 00:23:54,280 Speaker 1: everything you said. If I were betting on the total, 517 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,960 Speaker 1: I would be taking under. The thing is, I'm also 518 00:23:57,119 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 1: on the Raiders and this spot minus fot so you 519 00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:02,359 Speaker 1: kind of have to like thread a little bit of 520 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,800 Speaker 1: a needle here, Like if you are betting on the favorite, 521 00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 1: but you also want the under to cash, you know 522 00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: you have less leeway for that to happen here. But 523 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 1: this just feels like one of those spots where it 524 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:19,400 Speaker 1: really could happen. And it makes me think of the 525 00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:23,760 Speaker 1: the Kendall Hinton game that we had in the yes 526 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,040 Speaker 1: okay right in the in the COVID season, where you 527 00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: just have a team in total disarray and you look 528 00:24:30,280 --> 00:24:32,120 Speaker 1: on one side and you're like, Okay, there's no way, 529 00:24:32,359 --> 00:24:34,960 Speaker 1: regardless of how high this number gets, there's no way 530 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:38,480 Speaker 1: I can't not bet the Saints like they are going 531 00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:39,960 Speaker 1: to cover. And at the same time, there's no way 532 00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:43,399 Speaker 1: I can't not bet the under in this game because 533 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:46,240 Speaker 1: of the situation. They have a quarterback that's a little 534 00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 1: bit like the dynamic. It's a little bit of what 535 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:52,120 Speaker 1: this game feels like. For the Colts. You have interim 536 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,919 Speaker 1: head coach Jeff Saturday. I mean real ted Lasso vibes 537 00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:58,960 Speaker 1: coming from that guy. He's never coached an NFL or 538 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:02,400 Speaker 1: college game, ever been on an NFL or college staff. 539 00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: He wasn't even a winning high school football coach. 540 00:25:06,280 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 2: I was gonna bring that up. Okay, thank you for 541 00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 2: bringing that up. 542 00:25:09,359 --> 00:25:15,480 Speaker 1: Absolutely amazing, right, Interim offensive coordinator Parks Fraser, who I 543 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: definitely never heard of, and that sounds like a totally 544 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: made up name. Parks Fraser. He's never coordinated an offense, 545 00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:25,240 Speaker 1: never called plays at any level. And then you have 546 00:25:25,359 --> 00:25:29,880 Speaker 1: third string turn starting quarterbacks him Ellinger, Ellinger, if you want, 547 00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:34,360 Speaker 1: that's fine with me. Six round draft pedigree, just two starts, 548 00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:39,720 Speaker 1: five adjusted yards per attempt for his NFL career. I mean, 549 00:25:39,760 --> 00:25:42,960 Speaker 1: they are going to be so bad on offense, and 550 00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: part of what will make them so bad is that 551 00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,439 Speaker 1: I think they will be extremely conservative on offense. Like 552 00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,960 Speaker 1: Jeff Saturday has already said that he's going to be 553 00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: fine settling for kicks, settling for field goals, and settling 554 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 1: for field position, right. I mean, you know he was 555 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:03,720 Speaker 1: asked about, you knowing rolling the dice on fourth down 556 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 1: as often as Frank Reich did, and he said, and 557 00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:11,440 Speaker 1: I'm quoting, I'm an O lineman, bro I work awfully 558 00:26:11,480 --> 00:26:14,280 Speaker 1: hard to get points. I'm going to take points. It's 559 00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:17,440 Speaker 1: a hard living in there. Man. This is great that 560 00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:21,760 Speaker 1: that guy, that guy is now an NFL head coach. 561 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,679 Speaker 1: So they're going to be extremely suboptimal on offense, and 562 00:26:25,680 --> 00:26:28,200 Speaker 1: I think that means running the ball quite a bit. 563 00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,760 Speaker 1: And so, you know, I think for me, part of 564 00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,320 Speaker 1: this is looking at the Raiders run defense against the 565 00:26:33,359 --> 00:26:36,880 Speaker 1: Colts run offense. Obviously, Jonathan Taylor is great, but he's 566 00:26:36,880 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: dealing with an injury. A man the Colts, they might 567 00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:42,800 Speaker 1: win to run the ball. They have been terrible at 568 00:26:42,920 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 1: running the ball this year because of their offensive line. 569 00:26:45,440 --> 00:26:49,359 Speaker 1: I mean literally last, like dead last or second to 570 00:26:49,480 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 1: last in every key rushing efficiency metric. And at worst, 571 00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,359 Speaker 1: the Raiders are average against the run, you know, but 572 00:26:57,400 --> 00:27:00,840 Speaker 1: they've actually been number five in run EPA, like, They've 573 00:27:00,840 --> 00:27:03,159 Speaker 1: been pretty good against the run. And so if you 574 00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 1: have one team who's stupidly wanting to run the ball 575 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 1: and can't do it all that well going against a 576 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:11,640 Speaker 1: team that's actually pretty good in run defense, I'm I'm 577 00:27:11,680 --> 00:27:13,440 Speaker 1: liking that quite a bit. And I'm just gonna say, 578 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 1: if the Raiders cannot shut down this offense and they 579 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,120 Speaker 1: cannot cover the spread, Josh McDaniels needs to be fired 580 00:27:20,160 --> 00:27:24,719 Speaker 1: immediately like this, and it's a it's an indictment on 581 00:27:24,880 --> 00:27:28,679 Speaker 1: all NFL head coaches, like, what do you do here? Like, 582 00:27:28,840 --> 00:27:31,720 Speaker 1: if you can't beat some guy who's never coached before 583 00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,159 Speaker 1: at this level, coming in off the street in the 584 00:27:34,240 --> 00:27:37,160 Speaker 1: middle of the season, with an offensive coordinator who's never 585 00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:40,720 Speaker 1: called plays before and a quarterback who might not deserve 586 00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:43,080 Speaker 1: to be in the league, what are you doing here? 587 00:27:43,080 --> 00:27:45,560 Speaker 1: You're not even a touchdown favorite and you're at home, 588 00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:48,520 Speaker 1: So the Raiders better cover this number. 589 00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 2: It's crazy that you said, because I don't really use 590 00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:55,560 Speaker 2: motivation like as like this is the NFL, Like everybody 591 00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,720 Speaker 2: is motivated. Everybody's trying to get paid. But one of 592 00:27:58,720 --> 00:28:01,520 Speaker 2: the last tweets that Jeff said sent as a civilian 593 00:28:01,560 --> 00:28:03,679 Speaker 2: before he became a head coach, was that this Raiders 594 00:28:03,680 --> 00:28:06,680 Speaker 2: team is awful. So a little bit of bolton board materials. 595 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:11,680 Speaker 2: And also, you know, we saw a couple of fake 596 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:13,840 Speaker 2: schefters kind of tweet out some like it fake news, 597 00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,880 Speaker 2: and one of them was like that Josh McDaniels was fired. 598 00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 2: I don't think that that's farver stretch. If they lose 599 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,159 Speaker 2: this game, Like, if they lose this game to like 600 00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 2: basically a Sam Ellinger, you know, with a you know, 601 00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:29,840 Speaker 2: a makeshift coaching staff. I don't really know what you 602 00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 2: can say about this Raiders team that you would want 603 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 2: to proceed with him going forward. 604 00:28:34,560 --> 00:28:36,919 Speaker 1: All right, all right, one more game here, Jill, that 605 00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 1: we should talk about. You and I we're we're both 606 00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:42,360 Speaker 1: Cowboys fans, you know, to this point in our lives, 607 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 1: maybe tragically Cowboys fans. Although you know, hey, the nineties, 608 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 1: the nineties were good. Uh, you know, it hasn't been 609 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,040 Speaker 1: so good recently. Although this year, this year's been pretty good. 610 00:28:53,360 --> 00:28:55,880 Speaker 1: And now we've got this game. And I gotta say, 611 00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,479 Speaker 1: at the beginning of the year, this was one that 612 00:28:58,560 --> 00:29:01,600 Speaker 1: I would say every Cowboys fan had circled on the calendar. 613 00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:04,440 Speaker 1: It's like, got to go to Green Bay, got to 614 00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:08,080 Speaker 1: play the Packers Aaron Rodgers at home and in the 615 00:29:08,360 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 1: off season and the look ahead market this number was 616 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:16,239 Speaker 1: between four four and a half favoring the Packers. And 617 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:21,640 Speaker 1: then now we've got this line around five favoring the Cowboys. 618 00:29:21,960 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 1: So massive line movement coinciding with the fact that the 619 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:29,920 Speaker 1: Cowboys that defense is legit, and man, that that Packers 620 00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,800 Speaker 1: offense has looked really bad and they've got injuries, significant 621 00:29:34,800 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: injuries on both sides of the ball that they're dealing with. 622 00:29:39,480 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 2: This is crazy isn't it a crazy though, Matt, like, 623 00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 2: as a Cowboys fane, just say that out loud, that 624 00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:47,520 Speaker 2: our defense is legit. Yeah, that is something that has 625 00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 2: never been a case for us. You know, we've had 626 00:29:50,200 --> 00:29:52,280 Speaker 2: like the Marcus Ware and you know, you've had some 627 00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 2: decent defensive players over the years, but it was just 628 00:29:54,440 --> 00:29:57,160 Speaker 2: one guy. And not to say that Michael Parsons isn't 629 00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,560 Speaker 2: just one guy, but that collective unit is like as result, 630 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,719 Speaker 2: he's floating all boats and kind of elevating that unit. So, 631 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,720 Speaker 2: but that being said, you're right, at the beginning of 632 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,200 Speaker 2: the season, part of the reason why we circled this 633 00:30:09,320 --> 00:30:11,959 Speaker 2: matchup is because a lot of us already had it 634 00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:14,800 Speaker 2: circled as a loss, because going into Lambeau is just 635 00:30:14,840 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 2: as near impossible to kind of win in that scenario, 636 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,719 Speaker 2: and Aaron Rodgers has owned us in his career. So 637 00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:24,960 Speaker 2: at that point you kind of think, okay, well, you know, Cowboys, 638 00:30:25,080 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 2: you know, hopefully we're you know, above five hundred, will 639 00:30:27,280 --> 00:30:28,760 Speaker 2: take that as an l and we'll close out the 640 00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 2: season on some divisional wins and hopefully make the playoffs. 641 00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:34,840 Speaker 2: Now we're kind of in a position where we can 642 00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:37,040 Speaker 2: get to pretty close to the top of the NFC 643 00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,240 Speaker 2: with a win today. This is pretty or with that game, 644 00:30:39,280 --> 00:30:40,720 Speaker 2: and that's pretty much going to be the end of 645 00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:43,160 Speaker 2: the Packers season as we know it if they lose 646 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,720 Speaker 2: this game. Which is why when I was talking with 647 00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,560 Speaker 2: you off air, asking am I crazy to think that 648 00:30:49,640 --> 00:30:52,760 Speaker 2: Packers money line might be a worthy bet here? Because 649 00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 2: just again I hate to do the motivation thing I hate, 650 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:58,120 Speaker 2: but it just seems like such a letdown spot for 651 00:30:58,160 --> 00:31:01,680 Speaker 2: the Cowboys, especially coming off by you know, you know 652 00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,000 Speaker 2: a lot of people are going to talk about the 653 00:31:03,320 --> 00:31:05,680 Speaker 2: edge of Matt and floor over Mike McCarthy. You know 654 00:31:05,720 --> 00:31:07,239 Speaker 2: a lot of people saying like, oh, you know, Mike 655 00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:08,920 Speaker 2: McCarthy's going to go back and be able to stick 656 00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 2: it to him. And I was just like slowed down, 657 00:31:10,360 --> 00:31:13,080 Speaker 2: like slow down here, like you know, so I think 658 00:31:13,120 --> 00:31:15,680 Speaker 2: that's my thing here is that looking at this at 659 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:18,160 Speaker 2: a spread of plus five, historically, this is the biggest 660 00:31:18,160 --> 00:31:20,720 Speaker 2: spread that Aaron Rodgers has ever had as a home 661 00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:24,760 Speaker 2: dog and historically has covered very well in this spot, 662 00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,160 Speaker 2: and even against Buffalo, I was a little encouraged with 663 00:31:28,200 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 2: the fact that, you know, they still gave over twenty 664 00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:31,920 Speaker 2: carries to Aaron Jones he still had like about one 665 00:31:32,000 --> 00:31:33,520 Speaker 2: hundred and twenty yards. I think they're gonna be able 666 00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 2: to still run the ball on this defense, even as 667 00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,640 Speaker 2: formidable as the Cowboys have looked. So I'm not saying 668 00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 2: to take Cowboys money line. I'm just saying that I 669 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:46,400 Speaker 2: don't think it's crazy that people are considering it. Do 670 00:31:46,480 --> 00:31:49,600 Speaker 2: you feel that way as a fellow pragmatic Cowboys. 671 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:53,840 Speaker 1: Fan thinking about the Packers on the money line? Is? Man? 672 00:31:53,880 --> 00:31:56,840 Speaker 1: I gotta say, because yeah, normally for me before the season, 673 00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,920 Speaker 1: like it was an auto bet Aaron Rodgers at home 674 00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 1: cover machine. This just feels like such a different situation. 675 00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 1: And I will say, like the skeptic in me just 676 00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:13,760 Speaker 1: cannot imagine Mike McCarthy going into lambeau Field and putting 677 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:17,400 Speaker 1: the final nail in the coffin that that is undoubtedly 678 00:32:17,480 --> 00:32:20,920 Speaker 1: the Packers season, right, Like I just I can't fathom it. 679 00:32:21,000 --> 00:32:23,640 Speaker 1: Yet at the same time, like I had this projected 680 00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:26,240 Speaker 1: exactly a five, you know, that's where the number is. 681 00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 1: And I look at this Packers team and man, they 682 00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 1: are so injured. You know, David Botiari, he's even when 683 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:37,200 Speaker 1: he's out there, he's not himself. You know, Andre Campbell 684 00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,200 Speaker 1: linebacker likes Thrusher. 685 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,640 Speaker 2: And Rayshaun Gary just went out for the year with 686 00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,200 Speaker 2: an ACL injury. Uh yeah, And I mean Jayra Alexander 687 00:32:45,360 --> 00:32:48,000 Speaker 2: like hasn't looked as sharp, you know, for example, as 688 00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:50,560 Speaker 2: maybe as he was when he got that contract extension. 689 00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,000 Speaker 2: So again, they're struggling in a lot of different places. 690 00:32:53,600 --> 00:32:56,640 Speaker 2: I mean, Alan Lazard is back from an injury standpoint 691 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,719 Speaker 2: and consistently even from a fantasy perspective and a touchdown 692 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:02,640 Speaker 2: perspect to be very consistent in this offense when he plays. 693 00:33:03,000 --> 00:33:05,680 Speaker 2: But once you get past him, like, can you trust 694 00:33:05,760 --> 00:33:08,040 Speaker 2: Romeo Dobbs to make a play? Can you trust Christian 695 00:33:08,080 --> 00:33:10,960 Speaker 2: Watson to make a play? Is Amari Rodgers ready? Like 696 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 2: you know, none of these players are in the realm 697 00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,960 Speaker 2: of what DeVante Adams was bringing from a wide receiver 698 00:33:16,040 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 2: standpoint to give them that edge. So it's difficult to 699 00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 2: envision how this iteration of a Packers team could beat 700 00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,880 Speaker 2: this version of the Cowboys. But again, because we are 701 00:33:27,960 --> 00:33:32,280 Speaker 2: these lifelong fans, we've seen constant disappointments, are being put 702 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:35,600 Speaker 2: in a position where we could actually overcome this dragon 703 00:33:35,720 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 2: known as Ayahuasca Rogers. And I just honestly, man, I 704 00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,600 Speaker 2: just I'm probably not going to bet it. I'm just 705 00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 2: being real here, But at the same time, the degenerative 706 00:33:45,840 --> 00:33:48,080 Speaker 2: me wants to take Packers money line just as almost 707 00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,600 Speaker 2: like an emotional hedge from my heart. 708 00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, the emotional hedge I totally understand. I mean I 709 00:33:53,240 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 1: on Monday, I bet Dallas at minus four and a 710 00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:57,959 Speaker 1: half kind of in anticipation of trying to get ahead 711 00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,960 Speaker 1: of line movement. And you know, imagine that the Packers, 712 00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 1: as banged up as they are, they will have significant 713 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:05,360 Speaker 1: guys who are not playing in this game. You know, 714 00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,680 Speaker 1: Romeo Dobbs the ankle injury or is it let me 715 00:34:08,680 --> 00:34:12,160 Speaker 1: see here, is it knee injury? Ankle injury? And of 716 00:34:12,200 --> 00:34:14,560 Speaker 1: course Aaron Jones dealing with an ankle injury. I mean, 717 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:17,719 Speaker 1: he's it seems very likely to play, but still I 718 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:19,520 Speaker 1: don't think he's going to be close to one hundred percent. 719 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 1: Eric Stokes cornerback, he looks like he's going to be 720 00:34:23,040 --> 00:34:25,000 Speaker 1: out dealing with an ankle and a knee injury. So 721 00:34:26,080 --> 00:34:28,920 Speaker 1: who I mean, if I'm a normal person, I'm probably 722 00:34:28,960 --> 00:34:31,480 Speaker 1: not betting this. But you know, obviously we all know 723 00:34:31,640 --> 00:34:34,600 Speaker 1: I'm not normal. I am on the Cowboys on this side. 724 00:34:34,640 --> 00:34:36,840 Speaker 1: It has to do with the projection and the injuries, 725 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,760 Speaker 1: not the fact that I'm a Dallas Cowboys fan. If anything, 726 00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:42,920 Speaker 1: I would be betting against the Cowboys because I'm a 727 00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,319 Speaker 1: Cowboys fan. But I think I think Cowboys are the 728 00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:50,280 Speaker 1: side here. But at five, I think it's about right. Man. 729 00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:54,080 Speaker 1: We will see. We'll see hopefully a good game of 730 00:34:54,080 --> 00:34:56,560 Speaker 1: football and by that I mean Cowboys winning on the 731 00:34:56,600 --> 00:34:59,960 Speaker 1: road by twenty one. All right, Jill, thanks for joining us. 732 00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:02,400 Speaker 1: Tell all the people about everything you got going on 733 00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 1: at the Action Network. Awesome. 734 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:06,960 Speaker 2: Okay, So every week on Sundays is part of the 735 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,359 Speaker 2: Action Networks Power Hour. We have convinced me. Starting out 736 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:12,960 Speaker 2: eleven am Eastern, and right after it, we've got my show, 737 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:15,520 Speaker 2: the Touchdown Show, where I give out my best touchdown 738 00:35:15,560 --> 00:35:18,399 Speaker 2: bets of the week for the Sunday games. Of course, 739 00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,840 Speaker 2: I give out touchdown picks for every primetime game. You 740 00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:23,640 Speaker 2: can find those on the Action Network YouTube channel or 741 00:35:23,880 --> 00:35:26,400 Speaker 2: you could find them on my Twitter account at g 742 00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,640 Speaker 2: dog five thousand, that is gdawg five thousand. And then 743 00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:32,719 Speaker 2: of course I have a weekly props article I like 744 00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:35,200 Speaker 2: to do on Friday. I'm on Action Networks Best Bets 745 00:35:35,320 --> 00:35:39,440 Speaker 2: and recap podcasts every week. Those are on Fridays and Sundays. 746 00:35:39,800 --> 00:35:41,879 Speaker 2: They keep me busy, but at the same time, it's 747 00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,000 Speaker 2: the best job in the world. 748 00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:46,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, and I think you do some shows with Nick Giffin, right, 749 00:35:46,680 --> 00:35:47,080 Speaker 1: that's right. 750 00:35:47,160 --> 00:35:49,680 Speaker 2: Yeah. Nick Giffen is my co host with the Touchdown Show. 751 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 2: He also has a show, a NASCAR show called Stack 752 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,239 Speaker 2: and Denny's, which he actually uses to be able to 753 00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,839 Speaker 2: bet NASCAR. He's an awesome NASCAR handicapper, but the way 754 00:35:59,840 --> 00:36:01,880 Speaker 2: he is with his projections. He also does a thing 755 00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,319 Speaker 2: called Luck Rankings, which shows kind of like the way 756 00:36:04,360 --> 00:36:07,080 Speaker 2: the NFL outcome should have been as opposed to what 757 00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:09,200 Speaker 2: they actually were and the way that they were going. 758 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:11,640 Speaker 2: They've been very affective from an ATS standpoint for the 759 00:36:11,640 --> 00:36:13,960 Speaker 2: way that people are betting. So yeah, follow doctor Nick 760 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:15,960 Speaker 2: Giffen as well at Roto Doc. 761 00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,839 Speaker 1: Yeah. Nick is great. I used to do a show 762 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:21,200 Speaker 1: with him back in the old days. It wroteviz so 763 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,520 Speaker 1: awesome stuff. Glad he's doing well at action and you 764 00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 1: guys are getting to cut it up together on a 765 00:36:27,239 --> 00:36:30,879 Speaker 1: show so awesome stuff. Obviously gives you'll a follow. I'm 766 00:36:30,920 --> 00:36:33,200 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt f the Oracle for all my work. 767 00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,840 Speaker 1: Checkout Betting Pros and Fantasy Pros Best Bets, player props, 768 00:36:36,920 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 1: Fantasy Favorites, player projections, rankings, and more. And if you 769 00:36:40,040 --> 00:36:42,240 Speaker 1: like the show, please rate and review on your favorite 770 00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:43,719 Speaker 1: podcast app. And that is going to do it for 771 00:36:43,760 --> 00:36:46,640 Speaker 1: the Week ten Best Bets edition of the Betting Pros Pod. 772 00:36:46,680 --> 00:37:01,400 Speaker 1: Thanks for tuning in, good luck, and see you next episode.