1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:02,760 Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. 2 00:00:03,040 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 2: Ju us proud read enough. They're all running a game 3 00:00:11,200 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 2: so smoothe so sweet twent mid sixteen. 4 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 3: Just glorious execution. Guys. 5 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:21,639 Speaker 1: All I'm looking for is sixty percent effort four thousand 6 00:00:21,720 --> 00:00:22,480 Speaker 1: percent of the time. 7 00:00:23,079 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 3: How shot with that? Shop with mind, buddy, and that's 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:28,920 Speaker 3: why you see your beautiful tiers. 9 00:00:29,680 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 2: Look at his movements. 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:32,199 Speaker 3: The most dangerous a mount of the planet. 11 00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:32,960 Speaker 2: Nobody kicks the. 12 00:00:35,600 --> 00:00:42,360 Speaker 3: Shit. Shut up, I'm trying be wove. 13 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:47,080 Speaker 1: It's left to one of the wide eyed, drilled bibused. 14 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:49,760 Speaker 3: How on earth that happens? 15 00:00:53,080 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wonder Goal, the soccer betting 16 00:00:55,520 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: podcast from the Action Network. I am your host today, 17 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: bj Cunningham. In a second be joined by my friend 18 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: and co host Anthony Dbundo. But first, Wonder Goal is 19 00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,160 Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. 20 00:01:08,240 --> 00:01:10,759 Speaker 1: Sign up with promo code action to get BET three 21 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: six fives exclusive sign up offer in New Jersey. 22 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:14,840 Speaker 2: Colorado and Ohio. 23 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:18,160 Speaker 1: Bet one dollar on any game, get two hundred in 24 00:01:18,480 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: bonus bets. It's the second legs of the quarterfinals of 25 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,600 Speaker 1: the Champions League and we'll kick things off on Tuesday 26 00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:32,480 Speaker 1: at three pm Eastern Time, Chelsea hosting Real Madrid. Chelsea 27 00:01:32,720 --> 00:01:35,479 Speaker 1: is a plus one seventy eight home underdog Real Madrid 28 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:37,560 Speaker 1: sitting up plus one forty with a draw plus two 29 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: to fifty. Real Madrid is leading by two goals. 30 00:01:40,480 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 2: They are as. 31 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: Minus two thousand favorite to advance. Well, Chelsea is, depending 32 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,240 Speaker 1: on the book, is sitting around nine to one to advance, 33 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 1: which is just not high enough at all. I literally 34 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,840 Speaker 1: have no interest in this match. Real Madrid is probably 35 00:01:55,840 --> 00:01:58,480 Speaker 1: gonna go through. But we have to point out that 36 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,320 Speaker 1: Chelsea last season in this tie made it very very 37 00:02:02,400 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 1: interesting in the second leg and almost almost took out 38 00:02:05,240 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: Real Madrid at the Burnabout. But I again, I have 39 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:08,799 Speaker 1: no interest on this, Anthony though. 40 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 2: You can't quit Chelsea, No, I can't. 41 00:02:13,000 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 3: It's very unfortunate. They were pretty poor on Saturday at 42 00:02:16,560 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 3: home against Brighton. We did cash and over, which was cool, 43 00:02:21,600 --> 00:02:23,680 Speaker 3: pretty much deserved it. I mean Chelsea was a little 44 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 3: fortunate to score, but Brighton fully could have had three 45 00:02:26,840 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 3: or four. I think when you consider this match up, 46 00:02:30,840 --> 00:02:33,840 Speaker 3: the first twenty minutes of the match against Real Madrid 47 00:02:34,040 --> 00:02:37,639 Speaker 3: is kind of what I expected, and I thought, you know, 48 00:02:37,760 --> 00:02:41,239 Speaker 3: Chelsea had opportunities to get in behind and to score 49 00:02:41,800 --> 00:02:45,320 Speaker 3: and just really couldn't finish. And really we've seen this 50 00:02:45,440 --> 00:02:47,720 Speaker 3: time and time and time and time again this year. 51 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:52,640 Speaker 3: They failed to convert their one on one through Felix 52 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 3: Sterling was denied with a great save from Courtois. In 53 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,400 Speaker 3: the end, they had eight box entries via the pass 54 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: zero via carries in the first leg. Now the second 55 00:03:02,760 --> 00:03:06,920 Speaker 3: half gets a little bit trickier because of the red card, 56 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:09,280 Speaker 3: so that kind of throws the game out of whack. 57 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 3: At that point, it never really felt like Chelsea had 58 00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:16,920 Speaker 3: a chance to score. But I think in this setup 59 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:20,560 Speaker 3: at home, Chelsea has to go balls to the wall 60 00:03:20,600 --> 00:03:22,480 Speaker 3: and has to put out an attacking lineup that can 61 00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 3: create chances. And I know it's crazy. People, you know, 62 00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 3: keep reaching out to me and asking me why I 63 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 3: keep betting Chelsea and why I think that I'm backing 64 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,480 Speaker 3: them to score goals and whatnot. The market has gotten 65 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 3: so low on them now that even as a two 66 00:03:38,640 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 3: goal home under a home team in the second leg 67 00:03:41,880 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 3: of a Champions League draw against Real, they are still 68 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:48,160 Speaker 3: an underdog. Now, I do worry about this way. This 69 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:51,200 Speaker 3: sets up tactically for Real because they're very comfortable playing 70 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:54,040 Speaker 3: without possession and waiting for their transitional moments, and I 71 00:03:54,080 --> 00:03:57,000 Speaker 3: think they can be very successful. Reeese James did not 72 00:03:57,200 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 3: have a great game against Venetiush, who carried them into 73 00:04:00,280 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 3: the penalty area twelve times in the first leg, which 74 00:04:03,240 --> 00:04:06,800 Speaker 3: is pretty scary from a Chelsea perspective and definitely concerns 75 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,400 Speaker 3: me from a defensive point of view for Chelsea because 76 00:04:10,400 --> 00:04:12,040 Speaker 3: in the end they did concede over one and a 77 00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:16,839 Speaker 3: half expected goals and the defense was not great given 78 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 3: what I thought would be better with Conte back in 79 00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:22,880 Speaker 3: the fold. So I think if you like Chelsea, you know, 80 00:04:22,960 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: I want to target their attack, not necessarily their defense, 81 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 3: and you can find their first half team total over 82 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,279 Speaker 3: a half at plus one point twenty and that's where 83 00:04:33,279 --> 00:04:35,880 Speaker 3: I'll be looking for this one, because I really don't 84 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:41,000 Speaker 3: see a world in which Chelsea is content to sit 85 00:04:41,120 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 3: back and not go after Real Madrid. And we have 86 00:04:43,640 --> 00:04:49,720 Speaker 3: seen this with Real Madrid pretty consistently in some games 87 00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 3: this season in the Champions League were they went on 88 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,560 Speaker 3: the road to Leipzig earlier in the group stage conceded early. 89 00:04:55,400 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 3: Celtic should have conceded early got away with a lot 90 00:04:59,120 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 3: in that match. Even in the in the last round 91 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,360 Speaker 3: against Liverpool, Liverpool did nothing in the second half, couldn't 92 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 3: do Jack once Real kind of locked it up. But 93 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 3: that first half could have been to two each end 94 00:05:13,800 --> 00:05:17,240 Speaker 3: given how wide open it was. So I'm going to 95 00:05:17,279 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 3: back Chelsea to score in the first half here, and 96 00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:24,119 Speaker 3: I'm probably gonna regret it, but I think in this spot, 97 00:05:24,240 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 3: in this situation, they need to get on the board 98 00:05:27,040 --> 00:05:29,400 Speaker 3: and they need to come out early, and I'm expecting 99 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:31,440 Speaker 3: them to have some success there, even though they've been 100 00:05:31,480 --> 00:05:33,880 Speaker 3: really poor doing that of late. 101 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean the thing about it is right after 102 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,720 Speaker 1: Benzma had to tap in as well, like right after that, 103 00:05:39,920 --> 00:05:42,800 Speaker 1: Sterling had a huge chance to get one by Kurtwan 104 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,599 Speaker 1: he just made a crazy good save. 105 00:05:44,839 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: So yeah, it's we'll see. 106 00:05:47,560 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: I mean, obviously Chelsea's got to be honest, has got 107 00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:51,160 Speaker 1: to be on them to come out and go after this, 108 00:05:52,560 --> 00:05:55,840 Speaker 1: you know. I mean Frank Lampard, I mean, the three 109 00:05:55,880 --> 00:05:58,440 Speaker 1: performances that they put in under him have been very, 110 00:05:58,600 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: very poor and much worse and they have undergraand Potters, 111 00:06:01,440 --> 00:06:03,200 Speaker 1: so that is also a worry for me as well. 112 00:06:03,600 --> 00:06:05,880 Speaker 2: So without a doubt, So yeah, I agree. 113 00:06:05,920 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 1: I mean if there's any way to target this, I 114 00:06:07,520 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: agree with you that it's to target Chelsea's attack, the 115 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 1: positive agression that they're doue for. But other than that, 116 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:15,720 Speaker 1: it's looking like it's probably gonna be City versus Real 117 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,240 Speaker 1: Madrid again in the semifinals. All right, let's move on 118 00:06:19,279 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: to a little more interesting match on Tuesday at three 119 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: pm Eastern time, Napoli hosting AC Milan. Napoli is a 120 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: minus one thirty four home favorite, ac Milan sitting at 121 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:32,320 Speaker 1: four to one, with the draw. 122 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 2: At plus two sixty. 123 00:06:34,960 --> 00:06:40,919 Speaker 1: AC Milan is a minus one forty two favorite to advance, 124 00:06:41,000 --> 00:06:44,000 Speaker 1: with Napoli sitting at plus one sixteen. 125 00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:49,680 Speaker 2: I have some I mean, this first leg was quite I. 126 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,280 Speaker 1: Thought, quite exciting both ways from a tackle perspective, and 127 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: I tend to agree with what bet you're about to make, 128 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:56,560 Speaker 1: but I'll let you go first here. 129 00:06:56,600 --> 00:06:57,680 Speaker 2: What are your thoughts on this match? 130 00:06:58,640 --> 00:06:58,839 Speaker 1: Yeah? 131 00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,920 Speaker 3: You know, I like the under here. We don't have 132 00:07:02,000 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 3: a ton of news on Osaman at this point, and 133 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 3: that is a big hinge factor. Ultimately, I was hoping 134 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,280 Speaker 3: to get a better number and never ended up up 135 00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: actually playing Annapoli, who did still create one and a 136 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:17,160 Speaker 3: half expected goals. But I think Milan this is very 137 00:07:17,200 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 3: similar to what Milan did in the first round of 138 00:07:21,920 --> 00:07:25,240 Speaker 3: the knockouts against Spurs, where they just kind of sat 139 00:07:25,400 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 3: very deep, absorbed pressure and gave the opponent a chance 140 00:07:29,440 --> 00:07:32,760 Speaker 3: to break them down and took the risk. There is 141 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,400 Speaker 3: a clear drop off without Victor Osaman for Napoli, especially 142 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:40,080 Speaker 3: given that Simeoni is also out, and so with both 143 00:07:40,120 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 3: of them potentially missing here, now you are without a 144 00:07:46,360 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 3: true shot number nine. And we saw with Bayern how 145 00:07:49,600 --> 00:07:51,240 Speaker 3: much of a problem that was. I think it's a 146 00:07:51,280 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 3: similar issue for Napoli. And again, you know, with Milan 147 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 3: being on the road, if Napoli does go up early, 148 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 3: that doesn't really change the calculus. Milan, who wants to 149 00:08:01,360 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 3: be in the transitional moments anyway, wants to get Leao, 150 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:08,560 Speaker 3: you know, in space up the left wing via outlets, 151 00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 3: who isn't really going to try to overwhelm with possession, 152 00:08:11,640 --> 00:08:14,200 Speaker 3: especially away from home, And so I don't really see 153 00:08:14,240 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 3: this game playing out as in a high event way. 154 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 3: And so I took some under two and a half 155 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 3: minus one twenty five is the best number I was 156 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,960 Speaker 3: able to find on it. I think this sets up 157 00:08:23,000 --> 00:08:26,800 Speaker 3: to be a very low scoring, you know, typical not 158 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:30,720 Speaker 3: to be cliche, but typical Italian kind of knockout match 159 00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 3: where neither team really wants to take a ton of chances. Napoli, 160 00:08:34,240 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 3: I do think, is live to turn this for sure. 161 00:08:36,640 --> 00:08:38,559 Speaker 3: I mean, of all the four matches, this is the 162 00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 3: biggest close, closest to a toss up. But I would 163 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 3: still rather be Milan with that goal. 164 00:08:44,240 --> 00:08:46,679 Speaker 1: I agree, and that's why I do like ac Milan 165 00:08:46,720 --> 00:08:48,800 Speaker 1: plus a half at plus one oh five. You know, 166 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: the thing was is I was I was projecting some 167 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: value on them in the first leg at home, even 168 00:08:54,800 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: before Oshman was announced out, and now the reverse of it. 169 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:01,560 Speaker 1: You know, I'm still showing value on them again because 170 00:09:01,679 --> 00:09:04,439 Speaker 1: I didn't really take any away. Like it was a 171 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:06,439 Speaker 1: very even match, Like I don't think anything that you 172 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 1: could make an argument of whether which side deserved to 173 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 1: essentially win it. But you know, the first twenty minutes 174 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,800 Speaker 1: Napoli did were by far the better side. They created 175 00:09:14,840 --> 00:09:17,199 Speaker 1: the huge chance inside the first minute with Kabar Scalia, 176 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:22,959 Speaker 1: but from that point on Napoli took thirteen shots from 177 00:09:23,080 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: the second minute until the eighty seventh minute, when they 178 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:28,560 Speaker 1: did create a couple of big chances. Those thirteen shots, 179 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: none of them had an xt rating over point one. 180 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 1: So ac Milan did a great job of limiting those chances. 181 00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:38,199 Speaker 1: And I mean listen, so from a tackle perspective, what 182 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: Napoli did differently than when they got beat for nothing 183 00:09:41,440 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: was Lebodica and Gisa. They pressed high against Blan when 184 00:09:44,840 --> 00:09:46,520 Speaker 1: they lost for nothing, and they created a lot of 185 00:09:46,520 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: space in behind for Benisser and Tanali to get space 186 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 1: and eventually get the ball at wide to Layout and Diaz, 187 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:55,160 Speaker 1: and it created a lot of a lot of havoc 188 00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,160 Speaker 1: and a lot of pressure on Napoli's defense. Well, they 189 00:09:57,760 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: sagged off and they didn't press high, and they could 190 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,079 Speaker 1: try to condense the middle of the pitch not allow Milan. 191 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:03,520 Speaker 2: To play through that. 192 00:10:04,280 --> 00:10:07,440 Speaker 1: But as the match went on, they started pressing higher 193 00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 1: more and more and eventually the first goal. How it 194 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:11,960 Speaker 1: happened is they both tried to press high and they 195 00:10:11,960 --> 00:10:14,120 Speaker 1: couldn't close and Metalan down in the middle of the 196 00:10:14,160 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: pitch and they had a breakaway chance. And like you said, 197 00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:20,439 Speaker 1: Milan is outstanding in those transitional opportunities. Now, there's some 198 00:10:21,440 --> 00:10:24,120 Speaker 1: people suspended for Napoli that I think have a much 199 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: much bigger impact than whether Oceman actually plays or not. 200 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: And Gisa is going to be out because he got 201 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: the red card. Kim Minjay is going to be out 202 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:36,640 Speaker 1: because he picked up too many yellows, so now he's 203 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:40,520 Speaker 1: suspended for this as well. Kim Minjay has played twenty 204 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 1: eight point two nineties of the thirty available for Napoli 205 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: in Syria A this season, and Gisa has played twenty 206 00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:51,720 Speaker 1: six point two of the available thirty nineties as well. 207 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,200 Speaker 1: So the drop off, you know, from Gisa, it's going 208 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: to be Tangay and double A, which is not you know, 209 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 1: a massive, massive drop off from from a center back perspective, 210 00:11:02,760 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: the drop off is to Jan Jesus, who's only played 211 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:09,559 Speaker 1: about seven full nineties in Syria A this season. So 212 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 1: that's a problem for Napoli, especially when the onus is 213 00:11:13,760 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 1: gonna be on them to press and go forward. Given 214 00:11:16,640 --> 00:11:18,480 Speaker 1: what we saw in the four nail defeat and Milan 215 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,760 Speaker 1: being able to sit deep, being able to absorb that 216 00:11:20,800 --> 00:11:24,160 Speaker 1: pressure and then counter, it's a very very dangerous game 217 00:11:24,240 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 1: to play. Now, Kavarshkelia was much better than he was 218 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 1: in the four nail defeats. You know, they started using 219 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:31,839 Speaker 1: him a little more centrally to get him some space 220 00:11:31,880 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: as well, which did end up working out pretty nicely. 221 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,280 Speaker 1: But again, like Napoli didn't create a ton of ton 222 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,880 Speaker 1: of high quality chances throughout the entire match outside of 223 00:11:40,880 --> 00:11:44,000 Speaker 1: that first one in the first minute, So I didn't 224 00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 1: really take anything away from that first leg that made 225 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,120 Speaker 1: me think that Napoli should have absolutely won and they're 226 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: deserving of being a minus one thirty five favorite here. 227 00:11:53,640 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: So instead of taking Milan to advance, I'm gonna, you know, 228 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: take the price discount and take Acy Milan at plus 229 00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: a half at plus one oh five. I do only 230 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: project Napoli at plus one thirteen. So I'd say anything 231 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 1: even money or better on Napolis good or on Acymlan 232 00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:14,319 Speaker 1: is good enough for me on them to advance. All right, 233 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:20,800 Speaker 1: let's move on to Wednesday. The headliner is obviously Byron 234 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:26,040 Speaker 1: hosting Manchester City. Byron is sitting at plus one seventy 235 00:12:26,160 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: Manchester City at plus one thirty seven, with the draw 236 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,959 Speaker 1: at plus two eighty at bet three sixty five. The 237 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: two advance line is Byron is a fifteen to one 238 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:43,200 Speaker 1: underdog to advance in City, sitting at minus eight thousand. 239 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: You know, I didn't really have much here in going 240 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:48,680 Speaker 1: into the first leg. You know, I thought the line 241 00:12:48,840 --> 00:12:51,880 Speaker 1: was about right. You know, City City did get steamed 242 00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: towards match time. I think they closed around minus one 243 00:12:55,120 --> 00:12:59,120 Speaker 1: sixty five. You know, I'm going from minus one thirty 244 00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:01,640 Speaker 1: five and you being a road favorite up three goals 245 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:06,920 Speaker 1: is interesting to say the least. But you know, I 246 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:08,520 Speaker 1: know you're going to take the under. That's probably the 247 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,400 Speaker 1: only way I would play this. You know, I'll let 248 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 1: you get into it. At City for the first like 249 00:13:14,120 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: thirty to forty five minutes, they were very very passive 250 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: and sitting off and trying to condense the field, and 251 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,679 Speaker 1: they didn't press high the way that they normally did. 252 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:28,599 Speaker 1: And even like even the Ubermacano mistake, it wasn't like 253 00:13:28,679 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 1: a mistake where hey, City was just the pressure was 254 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:33,560 Speaker 1: unrelenting and he just couldn't get out of his own end, 255 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,599 Speaker 1: Like he was trying to dribble out and City was 256 00:13:35,679 --> 00:13:37,920 Speaker 1: staying back and they were cutting off all the passing 257 00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,640 Speaker 1: lanes that he had. They did the reverse shots after 258 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:42,960 Speaker 1: the you know, they did the highlight after it happened, 259 00:13:43,240 --> 00:13:45,520 Speaker 1: and he just he had nobody to pass to, so 260 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:48,560 Speaker 1: he was kind of just stuck. So if City's going 261 00:13:48,640 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 1: to do that again and just capitalize on Byron's mistakes 262 00:13:52,080 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: with Byron having to go for it, I mean you 263 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,199 Speaker 1: maybe could talk me into a city, But again, the 264 00:13:56,280 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: price is a road favorite as a three being up 265 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,839 Speaker 1: three goals, so this is a pass. 266 00:14:01,800 --> 00:14:04,600 Speaker 3: But you do like the under, Yeah, I'm gonna bet 267 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 3: it now. You know I liked our lean under three 268 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:09,760 Speaker 3: in the first leg. You had to pay about minus 269 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,520 Speaker 3: one twenty one twenty five in that, and I it's 270 00:14:12,559 --> 00:14:14,840 Speaker 3: just a lot for a number that I thought, uh 271 00:14:15,520 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 3: was pretty close to write. And so I'm not going 272 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 3: to force place because it's the Champions League quarter final 273 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:21,400 Speaker 3: and I want to have action on the games as 274 00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:25,400 Speaker 3: i'm watching them. So but now it's three under minus 275 00:14:25,440 --> 00:14:30,200 Speaker 3: one oh five. I've seen as low and I just 276 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:33,160 Speaker 3: wonder why it's the same number. And I know that 277 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 3: the notebook is going to put up a two point 278 00:14:34,760 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 3: seventy five because that would get hammered over immediately, and 279 00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:41,920 Speaker 3: I understand that. But this is now Manchester City in 280 00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 3: a role where they don't need to score. They're sitting 281 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 3: on a lead, so there's no incentive for them to 282 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 3: continue to try to run up scores. This is a 283 00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 3: city that, to be honest, I agree. I didn't think 284 00:14:54,120 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 3: they played like Holland was invisible for the first forty 285 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 3: five minutes of the match, like he was barely a 286 00:14:58,920 --> 00:15:00,760 Speaker 3: factor in the first half of Byron did a pretty 287 00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,520 Speaker 3: good job defensively. But again it was the open mcconom mistake. 288 00:15:04,560 --> 00:15:07,240 Speaker 3: It was a rodri banger, which you know happens. The 289 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,960 Speaker 3: up mconom mistake does ultimately come from city applying a 290 00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,120 Speaker 3: lot of pressure to have the ball. I know that 291 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 3: it wasn't directly on mcconnoe, but playing into his weaknesses 292 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 3: as a ball passer as a ball carrier is something 293 00:15:19,920 --> 00:15:23,560 Speaker 3: that clearly Guardiola picked up on and took advantage of. 294 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,640 Speaker 3: But and this is thing we talked about with Eric 295 00:15:27,680 --> 00:15:32,880 Speaker 3: as well. But Ubumacconno probably won't see as much pressure 296 00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 3: on the road here or at home here. I don't 297 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 3: think he'll be relied on as much and build up 298 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:39,120 Speaker 3: because I have to think Tukel needs to make some 299 00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:43,160 Speaker 3: type of adjustment to build up elsewhere or to try 300 00:15:43,240 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 3: different things. But the problem for Byron is that I 301 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 3: don't know where they're attacking. Shots are coming from right now, 302 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 3: because Chupermo ting. I know we've slighted him on this 303 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,560 Speaker 3: show and we've said, oh, he's not Lewandowski. Ei're getting 304 00:15:55,600 --> 00:15:57,920 Speaker 3: fewer shots, He's not as good of a focal point. 305 00:15:57,960 --> 00:16:00,120 Speaker 3: That's why they have more draws this year, and I 306 00:16:00,160 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 3: think that's generally true. But without him it gets worse, 307 00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 3: way worse, because Gannabriy has been in terrible form, Saudiomani's 308 00:16:08,200 --> 00:16:10,920 Speaker 3: fighting his teammates, and they don't have a true routehouse 309 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 3: striker at all at the club. They're not going to 310 00:16:13,640 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 3: start my teeth tell and so the whole attack, like 311 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,760 Speaker 3: it's hard enough to score on Citi's defense and it's 312 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:24,200 Speaker 3: hard enough to hit them. You almost have to have 313 00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:27,520 Speaker 3: like a clear plan of how to attack in transitional 314 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:28,880 Speaker 3: moments because you're just not going to get a lot 315 00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 3: of subtle possession and they don't have a target man. 316 00:16:32,560 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 3: They're not playing like a true false nine. The one 317 00:16:34,760 --> 00:16:37,120 Speaker 3: guy they are playing there is has been in terrible 318 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:38,960 Speaker 3: for him for the last ten weeks and maybe leaving 319 00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: the club this summer with Gannabrey, So there's a lot 320 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 3: of question marks there. So I just don't really know 321 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,080 Speaker 3: if Byron has enough teeth right now to expose this 322 00:16:49,240 --> 00:16:52,160 Speaker 3: team right and make this competitive enough for City to 323 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 3: have to come out. So I took the under. I 324 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 3: think from a that's like the narrative angle from a 325 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:00,280 Speaker 3: number's perspective, I am right at two point five eight 326 00:17:01,280 --> 00:17:04,560 Speaker 3: eight eight, so like I don't have like a huge 327 00:17:04,640 --> 00:17:06,800 Speaker 3: edge here, curious what your number is. 328 00:17:06,840 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 2: But I'm at two point eight one. 329 00:17:09,160 --> 00:17:13,680 Speaker 3: Yeah, so like a little bit under. But unless this 330 00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:16,600 Speaker 3: comes out, Byron comes out firing. I don't know that 331 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 3: this game ever that gets that close, right, So I'm 332 00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:23,639 Speaker 3: taking the under. One other thing is that Byron has 333 00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:27,600 Speaker 3: not looked consistently good in attack for more than just 334 00:17:27,720 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 3: one match. I mean, they drew Hoffenheim, won one nothing. 335 00:17:31,520 --> 00:17:33,240 Speaker 3: It was very unimpressive, but. 336 00:17:33,240 --> 00:17:34,840 Speaker 1: Like they didn't do They didn't do Bayron level of 337 00:17:34,960 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 1: like three expectacles, like no what they create like one. 338 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:38,159 Speaker 3: And a half, didn't do shit. Yeah, it was it 339 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,879 Speaker 3: was an easy Hoffenheim result. Honestly, they could have won 340 00:17:40,920 --> 00:17:44,240 Speaker 3: it late and then Pavard scored the only goal and 341 00:17:44,280 --> 00:17:45,920 Speaker 3: it was like a deflected off of a set piece, 342 00:17:46,160 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 3: so it was kind of fortunate. Yeah, and they had 343 00:17:50,960 --> 00:17:53,600 Speaker 3: one goal at Freiburg. They lost to Freiburg in the Cup, 344 00:17:54,160 --> 00:17:59,280 Speaker 3: like this Dortman keeps dropping points. But this Byron team 345 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 3: is a pure fade for me, even more so than normal. Yeah, 346 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:04,800 Speaker 3: for the rest of the season, I have to look 347 00:18:04,800 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 3: at the schedule as do who they play. But the 348 00:18:07,680 --> 00:18:10,280 Speaker 3: market is still high on this team, and I think 349 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:11,679 Speaker 3: there's a lot of holes of questions. 350 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 2: Yeah. 351 00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,880 Speaker 1: So something also interesting which plays to here under as 352 00:18:15,960 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 1: well is something that Pep has been doing for the 353 00:18:18,040 --> 00:18:20,680 Speaker 1: last you know, three or four or maybe a couple 354 00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,240 Speaker 1: months now, ever since he took essentially Kyle Walker and 355 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:25,440 Speaker 1: Rico Lewis out of the team, is he's playing four 356 00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:28,760 Speaker 1: center backs at the back and also rodri So it 357 00:18:28,840 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 1: gives him the ability to play five at the back 358 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:33,440 Speaker 1: if he really really needs to. And then you know, 359 00:18:33,480 --> 00:18:36,960 Speaker 1: obviously a Kanji and an Aka are both very versatile 360 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,119 Speaker 1: center backs. But what it also does is it creates, 361 00:18:39,680 --> 00:18:41,479 Speaker 1: you know, since they play a little bit more centrally 362 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,080 Speaker 1: than somebody like Kensalo or Walker, where they want to 363 00:18:44,080 --> 00:18:46,040 Speaker 1: play more wide in them of you know, actual left 364 00:18:46,080 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 1: or right back role. Is it allows you know, why 365 00:18:50,160 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 1: is Grealish having such a great season, It's because he's 366 00:18:52,119 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 1: actually able to stay more wide like Knsalo always does. 367 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 1: These overlapping runs or whatever it is, and it's fine 368 00:18:57,520 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 1: and you know it works. 369 00:18:58,840 --> 00:18:59,800 Speaker 2: It does work for City. 370 00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:02,639 Speaker 1: But the way that Grealish plays well and how he 371 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: played well at Aston Villa is he gets the ball 372 00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:07,280 Speaker 1: out wide and he attacks defenders heading centrally and he's 373 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 1: been doing it over and over and over again because 374 00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:14,520 Speaker 1: Ake has been staying so somewhat central and forcing basically 375 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:17,560 Speaker 1: defenders to stay somewhat inward, and then Grealish gets one 376 00:19:17,600 --> 00:19:18,480 Speaker 1: on one opportunities. 377 00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 2: So uh, yeah, you know, the ability for City to play. 378 00:19:22,960 --> 00:19:25,160 Speaker 1: That defensive at the back and have you know, five 379 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,880 Speaker 1: guys who are all ballcarriers who can also sit back 380 00:19:27,920 --> 00:19:30,440 Speaker 1: and be big defenders to defend inside. And yeah, like 381 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 1: you mentioned with Tukel, like he's still trying to figure 382 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,520 Speaker 1: out who is number nine. It is like like you mentioned, 383 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:38,120 Speaker 1: Garbi's not in good for him, Like he's not playing 384 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:41,119 Speaker 1: Chupamo Tang. He can't play Mane. He's probably not a 385 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,080 Speaker 1: sane there. He might play Mueller as a false nine, 386 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:45,879 Speaker 1: but like I think it's going to. 387 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 3: Be an aber again. We don't know. Jumochen could be back. 388 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:52,120 Speaker 3: That is one thing to monitor. He was ruled out 389 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,480 Speaker 3: pretty early for the weekend. They do get the extra 390 00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:58,200 Speaker 3: day here, but it seems like he'd likely be a 391 00:19:58,280 --> 00:20:00,280 Speaker 3: sub at best. But we don't know that to situation 392 00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 3: with his injury yet. That would certainly make me a 393 00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:07,280 Speaker 3: little more hesitant. But like you said, get Abrian Sana 394 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,040 Speaker 3: and manay nothing. 395 00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:10,880 Speaker 2: And here's the thing with Byron as well. 396 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:14,080 Speaker 1: Against a lot of teams, you know, especially in possession, 397 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: they you know, two goles me messing around with, you know, 398 00:20:16,560 --> 00:20:17,920 Speaker 1: when they do and build a play, whether it be 399 00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:20,320 Speaker 1: like a two three five or a four two four, 400 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 1: And essentially what that does it compresses the final line, 401 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,360 Speaker 1: allows them to create a numerical advantage against the last 402 00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:27,920 Speaker 1: line of defense. Well, if City is going to play 403 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: essentially with Roger essentially five center backs at the back, 404 00:20:31,119 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: you cannot create those type of numerical. 405 00:20:32,680 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 2: Advantages with them in the box. So it yeah, I 406 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:38,080 Speaker 2: agree with you. I might. 407 00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,560 Speaker 1: I haven't looked at what Byron's team total is, but 408 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: maybe under one and a half might be might be 409 00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:45,480 Speaker 1: a play if it's a decent price. But other than that, yeah, 410 00:20:45,640 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 1: I'm passing. You know, Like we talked with Eric, like 411 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:51,639 Speaker 1: Byron might german this thing and make it interesting, But 412 00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,920 Speaker 1: other than that. Yeah, no, this is a this is 413 00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: a pass and the city probably moves on to play 414 00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: or almost a certainty they move on to play Real Madrid. 415 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 1: Let's wrap things up for the Champions League on Wednesday, 416 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: three pm Eastern Time as well, Inter hosting Benefica. 417 00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:09,360 Speaker 2: Inter has a two goal lead. 418 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: They are a plus one fifteen home favorite Benefica sitting 419 00:21:12,200 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 1: at plus two forty with the draw also at plus 420 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 1: two forty. Inter is minus twenty two hundred advance Benefica 421 00:21:21,240 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: sitting at ten to one to advance as well. I 422 00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 1: do have a pick for this match. I did bet 423 00:21:28,760 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 1: Benefica early if you follo him in the app, but 424 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,080 Speaker 1: that has since been bet out of range, so I 425 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:35,439 Speaker 1: have a different pick. But I'll let you get your 426 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 1: thoughts in here first. 427 00:21:36,920 --> 00:21:38,320 Speaker 3: Now I have a ton of thoughts, to be honest. 428 00:21:38,320 --> 00:21:40,360 Speaker 3: I mean, this is how Inter wants to play, right. 429 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:45,080 Speaker 3: They have been in a ridiculous finishing slump yep, with 430 00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,479 Speaker 3: Martinez and Jeco and Lukaku, whoever plays striker for them, 431 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 3: has not scored anything forever, and I think I'm hoping 432 00:21:52,840 --> 00:21:54,919 Speaker 3: that positive regression comes back for us in the potential 433 00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:58,640 Speaker 3: semifinal against another Italian team or final for our Inter 434 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 3: ticket and if you you guys joined me on that 435 00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 3: from a few months what was it a month ago now? 436 00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,920 Speaker 3: But I don't have a ton of thoughts here. Benfico 437 00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:08,920 Speaker 3: weren't bad in the first like it was a pretty 438 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 3: even match, just their shots didn't go in. What was 439 00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 3: impressive about the performance in general from Inter was that 440 00:22:15,720 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 3: they didn't concede any big scoring chances. They did a 441 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 3: very good job of limiting the quality and just giving 442 00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,119 Speaker 3: them a ton of quantity. And then, you know, sometimes 443 00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,000 Speaker 3: you get burned by that and like one of them 444 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,080 Speaker 3: goes in, You're like, damn. But in this case it 445 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,320 Speaker 3: worked out for them. They had a good approach, they 446 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 3: ended up getting, you know, more than the result they needed. 447 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,399 Speaker 3: Now they come home. I don't have a ton of 448 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,399 Speaker 3: I don't want to bet the under here because I 449 00:22:37,520 --> 00:22:39,200 Speaker 3: know the minute I do bet an Inter under, they're 450 00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 3: going to go off and finally finish with their chances 451 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,280 Speaker 3: and they could be good in transition here. But I'm 452 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 3: passing here. Easier pass for me. 453 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I will take the under two and a half 454 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,600 Speaker 1: at minus one p fifteen US. I'm a little surprised 455 00:22:52,640 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 1: to see it priced this lowly, Like I have two 456 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 1: point three to one goals projected for this match. 457 00:22:58,359 --> 00:22:59,119 Speaker 2: But I mean, here's the thing. 458 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:02,880 Speaker 1: It's like something that Benefico really struggled. 459 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 2: With in the first legs. 460 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: Their build up play like they're so used to being 461 00:23:05,320 --> 00:23:07,680 Speaker 1: in Portugal, having a ton of possession building out for 462 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:10,399 Speaker 1: the back and teams not providing too much pressure on 463 00:23:10,480 --> 00:23:12,720 Speaker 1: them because obviously, you know, those smaller sides, they're so 464 00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:15,760 Speaker 1: worried at them playing in behind them. But it was 465 00:23:15,800 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 1: clear from the get go that Inter wanted to make 466 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:20,920 Speaker 1: the match very, very transitional, and Benefica is not. They're 467 00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,480 Speaker 1: a very build up, slow based type team. Inter did 468 00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: press them, okay, that was something I was looking for 469 00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:28,840 Speaker 1: going to the match. Pass per defensive faction was eleven 470 00:23:28,920 --> 00:23:31,680 Speaker 1: point six. They did force five high turnover, so a 471 00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:35,720 Speaker 1: decent pressing performance. But now they lead two goals on aggregate, 472 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:37,280 Speaker 1: so the game plan completely changes. 473 00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 2: And guess what. 474 00:23:38,200 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: We literally just saw this in the round of sixteen 475 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,200 Speaker 1: against another Portuguese side. In that tie Inter, you know, 476 00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,360 Speaker 1: the second leg against Porto, they didn't press the same 477 00:23:47,400 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: intensity as the first leg. First leg of the tie 478 00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 1: against Porto, their passive per defensive action was six point eight. 479 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,960 Speaker 1: Second leg it was thirteen point four. Their average defensive 480 00:23:58,320 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: height in the first leg against Porto was fifty three 481 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,359 Speaker 1: point five yards from the goal. They tilted the field 482 00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,719 Speaker 1: on Porto, they were really dominant possession. Then once they 483 00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 1: had a one goal lead in the second leg, their 484 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: average field position was our average defensive position was thirty 485 00:24:12,359 --> 00:24:15,400 Speaker 1: eight point five yards. It's just a drastic, drastic change. 486 00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:19,000 Speaker 1: They became incredibly passive. And I don't see that changing 487 00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,520 Speaker 1: anywhere here because guess what, they have a two goal lead. 488 00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:24,239 Speaker 1: So even if they concede once in there at home, 489 00:24:24,320 --> 00:24:26,280 Speaker 1: it's not like they're just gonna be like, oh crap, 490 00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,560 Speaker 1: we just conceded. Let's come out, let's start pressing, let's 491 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:30,760 Speaker 1: start getting trying to get the ball and moving forward. No, 492 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 1: and you know, if you look at single you know, 493 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:35,960 Speaker 1: and this is also a good lesson of and it 494 00:24:36,040 --> 00:24:38,879 Speaker 1: was a good lesson against Porto as well. Is not 495 00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:42,080 Speaker 1: looking at you know, single game XG and just being like, 496 00:24:42,440 --> 00:24:44,920 Speaker 1: that's what happened, because like, you know, if you look 497 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 1: at our our our good friend Mark stats, you know, 498 00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:51,200 Speaker 1: his single game XG on the inter Benefico match was 499 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 1: three point seven. 500 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:54,200 Speaker 2: And if you look at. 501 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:58,359 Speaker 1: How the game played out, though, is before the Berea 502 00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,680 Speaker 1: goal in the fifty first minute, there were five total 503 00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: shots and point two to nine XTG created. The goal 504 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 1: happens completely changes everything, compleats changes the complete dynamic and 505 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 1: complexion of the match. Obviously, Lukaku also had a penalty, 506 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:15,840 Speaker 1: so that also factors in. But you know, Benefica when 507 00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,000 Speaker 1: they had to be more aggressive, they created a couple 508 00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:21,080 Speaker 1: of big quality chances and they just couldn't find the 509 00:25:21,119 --> 00:25:23,480 Speaker 1: back of the net. And then you know, as things 510 00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:27,640 Speaker 1: went on, Inter still was pretty passive overall for the match. 511 00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:29,600 Speaker 1: I mean, for the in total for the match, they 512 00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:31,960 Speaker 1: created point six XTI from open play. Take away the 513 00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,280 Speaker 1: Barrea goal, it's zero point four to five of other 514 00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:37,439 Speaker 1: shots other than the penalty and the barreagal. So Inter's 515 00:25:37,640 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: most likely going to sit back. I you know, Benefica 516 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:43,840 Speaker 1: might have some success breaking them down. They still are 517 00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,920 Speaker 1: a very good offensive team. But Benefica just lost in 518 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:51,600 Speaker 1: the Portuguese Premira Liga to Chabas on a ninety fourth 519 00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 1: minute winner. I went and looked at the lineup they played. 520 00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 1: It was a pretty much bang on like their normal 521 00:25:57,080 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: starting eleven. So that's a tad concerning spot. Yeah, it 522 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:02,000 Speaker 1: was a brutal spot for them. 523 00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:04,200 Speaker 3: They haven't lost a game in Portugal in like thirty years. 524 00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:07,159 Speaker 3: Now they a couple in a row. But yeah, but 525 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:08,840 Speaker 3: you know, it's a concern, but I mean it. 526 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:10,040 Speaker 2: It is a bad spot. 527 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,919 Speaker 1: But it's also like if you play your normal starting eleven, 528 00:26:12,960 --> 00:26:15,560 Speaker 1: it's also kind of indictment, like and you know you've 529 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:17,520 Speaker 1: already won the league and maybe you're not taking it seriously, 530 00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 1: but it's like, all right, well then why are you 531 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:19,920 Speaker 1: playing your normal starting eleven? 532 00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,840 Speaker 2: So I don't know, but you know, what, have they 533 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:23,360 Speaker 2: won the league? 534 00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:24,400 Speaker 3: I don't think they've actually clinched. 535 00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:25,439 Speaker 2: I mean they're they're pretty much. 536 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:28,359 Speaker 1: I think they're said they were six points clear of 537 00:26:28,440 --> 00:26:29,560 Speaker 1: ports I want to say. 538 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,280 Speaker 3: Before the weekend, hasn't won the league yet. 539 00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 2: They haven't won the league yet, so I guess they 540 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:35,879 Speaker 2: had to take it seriously. 541 00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:40,680 Speaker 1: But anyway, yeah, no, project two point three goals and 542 00:26:40,720 --> 00:26:43,200 Speaker 1: inter is going to stay very passive. That's basically the 543 00:26:43,240 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: summary of it. So I do like underd two and 544 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,600 Speaker 1: a half goals at minus one fifteen, all right, real quick. 545 00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:51,399 Speaker 3: Benfica has lost three in a row now, including the 546 00:26:51,480 --> 00:26:54,239 Speaker 3: Porteau and then in turn Chavas. You don't how many 547 00:26:54,320 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 3: losses they had between the beginning of the season and 548 00:26:57,600 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 3: the start of this losing streak. Zero the Nentwers one 549 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,119 Speaker 3: they lost in a way match to Braga. 550 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 1: Three. Now, yeah, yep, because I know they they drew, 551 00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:08,399 Speaker 1: They drew PSG in both of their chances, and I 552 00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 1: believe they beat events. 553 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 3: Swept u Ventus. 554 00:27:11,119 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: Yep. 555 00:27:12,200 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 3: Remember remember back in the days when Benfica was plus 556 00:27:14,880 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 3: three fifty two advance from that group. 557 00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:19,879 Speaker 1: My god, well, hopefully we can find something like that 558 00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:22,240 Speaker 1: for the next Champions League. It'll be It'll be whatever 559 00:27:22,280 --> 00:27:23,080 Speaker 1: group Plazio is in. 560 00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:23,520 Speaker 2: I'll tell you that. 561 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:26,760 Speaker 3: Hopefully we get an entertaining knockout stage because this has been. 562 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:29,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, this has been brutal. 563 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:33,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you know, Milan Darby would be fun, although Napoli, 564 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:37,280 Speaker 1: you know, whatever the Italian mixture is, it'll be fun. 565 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,360 Speaker 1: And then you know, City Real will be hopefully fun 566 00:27:40,400 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 1: as well, will it. City might just I don't know, yeah, 567 00:27:42,760 --> 00:27:45,520 Speaker 1: I mean, City might just cook them and then City 568 00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 1: just roars on the final and we're all either you 569 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 1: or me or sitting there with a big ticket just. 570 00:27:51,359 --> 00:27:52,000 Speaker 2: Knowing it's dead. 571 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 3: I'm trying to like what was the best match of 572 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,280 Speaker 3: the Champions League knockout so far. The Chelsea one. Really 573 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,560 Speaker 3: that is like the Chelsea Dortmuand match was probably the 574 00:28:02,640 --> 00:28:07,280 Speaker 3: best match. I don't remember more interesting one real the 575 00:28:07,320 --> 00:28:09,000 Speaker 3: first leg like that was like the. 576 00:28:09,040 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 1: Seven goal I'd say that seven goal one was probably 577 00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,159 Speaker 1: the most fun to watch. But like there did we 578 00:28:14,240 --> 00:28:15,600 Speaker 1: have any like late drama? 579 00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,280 Speaker 3: Not one, not one? I mean Tottenham almost equalized against Milan. 580 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:26,359 Speaker 3: The Chelsea Dortmund Porto inter was somewhat interesting, but like 581 00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:27,359 Speaker 3: every other it's been a. 582 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:31,240 Speaker 1: Real Benefica rolled City rolled, Napoli. 583 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,400 Speaker 2: Napoli rolled. Yeah, I was, It's been boring. So let's 584 00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:36,560 Speaker 2: move on to a little more fun. The Europa. 585 00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:37,400 Speaker 3: This is gonna be fun. 586 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,000 Speaker 2: This is gonna be really fun. We're just gonna you know. 587 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:43,800 Speaker 1: I like Roma to win against fine Ord, like the 588 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: simplest thing is soccer. Yeah, it's like, you know, Roma 589 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 1: missed the penalty, fine Ord scored a golf from outside 590 00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:50,320 Speaker 1: the box. 591 00:28:50,600 --> 00:28:52,880 Speaker 2: Like it was a very very even match. Roma comes home. 592 00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,240 Speaker 1: I got them projected minus one thirty seven. That would 593 00:28:55,240 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: be my favorite bet. But I think the more interesting 594 00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:02,200 Speaker 1: discussion is like on the future's odds to actually win 595 00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: because all these legs are still way live, all of them, 596 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,080 Speaker 1: you know, with United giving up two own goals to Sevilla, 597 00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:15,560 Speaker 1: Sevilla is now live, obviously, the event is Sporting one 598 00:29:15,680 --> 00:29:18,720 Speaker 1: is very live, and then Unan Saint Jelosi got a 599 00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:22,520 Speaker 1: result on the road against Leverkusen, so now we have 600 00:29:22,760 --> 00:29:26,160 Speaker 1: everything to play for. You know, before we started, you know, 601 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 1: recording the show, we were just we pulled up five 602 00:29:28,040 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: thirty eight to see, you know, what they had because 603 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:32,000 Speaker 1: we were kind of talking about maybe a fine art 604 00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:33,920 Speaker 1: at nine to one, and five thirty eight has fine 605 00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,959 Speaker 1: or is the favorite at twenty one percent to win 606 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:38,640 Speaker 1: the Europa League, so which I don't know if I 607 00:29:38,680 --> 00:29:42,840 Speaker 1: necessarily agree with. At this point, I still believe that United, 608 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:46,080 Speaker 1: I guess, should be the favorite, maybe along with Leverkusen. 609 00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:50,640 Speaker 1: But yeah, all of these legs are still very very live. 610 00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:53,720 Speaker 1: But yeah, roma for me, what's your best bet in 611 00:29:53,760 --> 00:29:56,840 Speaker 1: europe League? And just general thoughts overall about how exciting 612 00:29:56,920 --> 00:29:57,320 Speaker 1: this has been. 613 00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Sporting beat the shit out of Juventus 614 00:30:01,320 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 3: in the first leg at Uve and they lost, and 615 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:05,680 Speaker 3: they lost on a late goal. 616 00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 2: I was very upset. 617 00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:11,080 Speaker 3: Lost for me, had the plus a half. I think 618 00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:14,200 Speaker 3: they're live to still turn this. I mean I am 619 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:16,840 Speaker 3: already invested on like plus one sixty two advance, so 620 00:30:16,840 --> 00:30:18,840 Speaker 3: I'm not going to necessarily add more plus two ten 621 00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:21,960 Speaker 3: plus two twenty. But they're only a down a goal. 622 00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:24,160 Speaker 3: They're coming home, they're favored in that, and I think 623 00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:26,920 Speaker 3: they're just as good as Juventus, if not better. I 624 00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,160 Speaker 3: know Juventus has been excellent defensively, but they're not infallible, 625 00:30:30,200 --> 00:30:33,800 Speaker 3: and they have defensive aggression coming and they've overperformed all season. 626 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 3: Chesney went out with an injury. He may miss. It 627 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:40,120 Speaker 3: looks like he didn't play today against a Swollow, so 628 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,440 Speaker 3: his injury would be massive given how much he's been 629 00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 3: the reason they've overperformed defensively by so much. It's not 630 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,320 Speaker 3: like Sporting can't create chances against this team. They put 631 00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:50,880 Speaker 3: up over one and a half expected goals in the 632 00:30:50,920 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 3: first leg, so it's not to me it seems like 633 00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,040 Speaker 3: one I kind of link towards the over, but I 634 00:30:56,080 --> 00:30:57,800 Speaker 3: think Lisbon is live here. I'm going to take some 635 00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,320 Speaker 3: plus one twenty five plus one thirty on the money line. 636 00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:02,880 Speaker 3: It's probably my favorite side again. I mean it was 637 00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,840 Speaker 3: my favorite side last week. They won on XG they 638 00:31:06,000 --> 00:31:09,120 Speaker 3: outplayed them the better team. They lost the match, lost 639 00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:12,240 Speaker 3: the bet, but the market has moved steadily toward Uventus 640 00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:14,400 Speaker 3: in the last week since that match, and I don't 641 00:31:14,400 --> 00:31:16,800 Speaker 3: agree with it. So I'm gonna take Lisbon as my 642 00:31:16,840 --> 00:31:19,240 Speaker 3: best bet from a future's perspective, though, I mean, look, 643 00:31:19,360 --> 00:31:22,320 Speaker 3: Fia Nord is still nine to one, and look, I 644 00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,320 Speaker 3: love Roma, we all love Roma. We all have Roma, 645 00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:28,320 Speaker 3: you know, twenty three to one tickets, but nor does 646 00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 3: minus won seventy to advance Roma. Their style makes me 647 00:31:34,560 --> 00:31:36,560 Speaker 3: think this is going to be a coin flip till 648 00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:38,320 Speaker 3: the end here, Like I think Roma probably does win, 649 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:40,280 Speaker 3: but I think it's also probably going to be a 650 00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,560 Speaker 3: one goal game, and thus you have the risks of 651 00:31:42,600 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 3: penalties and whatnot. And I like the matchup for Fire 652 00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 3: Nord and Roma. Whoever advances against Leverkusen or Unon Saint Jelosi, 653 00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:52,840 Speaker 3: who is not out of it. They're tied as well 654 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,480 Speaker 3: coming home, they're you know, plus one sixty two advance. 655 00:31:57,040 --> 00:32:02,440 Speaker 3: So I think I'm gonna add some fine word here. Yeah, 656 00:32:02,680 --> 00:32:05,960 Speaker 3: if you remember from last season, Fine Ord's been a 657 00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,800 Speaker 3: team that I've generally been higher on, and somebody actually 658 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:10,640 Speaker 3: dm me last week it was like, what am I 659 00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,560 Speaker 3: missing here? Roma should have no problem, Like they should 660 00:32:13,560 --> 00:32:15,800 Speaker 3: win this tournament. I'm like, well, Fine Ord's pretty good 661 00:32:16,280 --> 00:32:19,720 Speaker 3: they have they are they are a winger factory and 662 00:32:19,760 --> 00:32:22,320 Speaker 3: their ability to just find wingers, develop them and then 663 00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:24,520 Speaker 3: sell them on for more money. And they have a 664 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 3: really fun group of players. Uh So I kind of 665 00:32:29,720 --> 00:32:33,520 Speaker 3: like their their transitional stuff here. If Roma's gonna have 666 00:32:33,560 --> 00:32:35,160 Speaker 3: to commit more numbers four than they're used to to 667 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,280 Speaker 3: try to get back into this tie, so you know, 668 00:32:38,360 --> 00:32:41,800 Speaker 3: between Jim Andez uh and and whatnot, like in a 669 00:32:41,880 --> 00:32:45,600 Speaker 3: DREAC like that's a really fun attacking group in transition. 670 00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 3: So I think they can absolutely cause some problems here. 671 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,479 Speaker 3: Uh And I'm gonna take some some fine or nine 672 00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:56,320 Speaker 3: to one because if they do advance, I'm perfectly fine 673 00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 3: right in the Fine Ord wagon. 674 00:32:57,880 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean they could be placing because they weren't. 675 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 1: Jelosi honestly was not that bad against Levercust and it 676 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,240 Speaker 1: wasn't like I know, the final XG will say alas 677 00:33:07,320 --> 00:33:10,960 Speaker 1: Lever Houston one point four, two point six whatever, like Jelosi, 678 00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 1: And they've showed this against Union Berlin and everybody else 679 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:14,320 Speaker 1: in the Europa League. 680 00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:16,520 Speaker 2: I mean, we forget they won the euro their Europa 681 00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:17,240 Speaker 2: League group. 682 00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 1: Like, they're really really good in transitional opportunities and they're 683 00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,160 Speaker 1: very very comfortable sitting back and getting the ball moving forward. 684 00:33:24,240 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 1: And you know, Leverkusen, although they've been much better under 685 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:29,360 Speaker 1: Shabi Alonso, like they're for the longest time, they've been 686 00:33:29,400 --> 00:33:33,800 Speaker 1: so vulnerable in transition defense and it could plague them 687 00:33:33,840 --> 00:33:36,880 Speaker 1: again here, especially that result happened in Germany. Now we're 688 00:33:36,920 --> 00:33:40,800 Speaker 1: going back to Belgium. So yeah, very very difficult tie there. 689 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 1: I mean I might take some sporting Lisbon at fourteen 690 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 1: to one to win the Europa League, like even if 691 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 1: they played Manchester United, I don't think that they're going 692 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 1: to be, you know, that significantly out of it. I 693 00:33:51,480 --> 00:33:54,240 Speaker 1: know we're both very very low on Juventus. Uh you know, 694 00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: at four to one, they're I have no interest in that. 695 00:33:58,040 --> 00:33:59,880 Speaker 3: But yeah, but think about that for a second though. 696 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,960 Speaker 3: Think about the price there. I know you just said it, 697 00:34:02,000 --> 00:34:05,440 Speaker 3: like Lisbon is fourteen to one. They are a bigger underdog. 698 00:34:05,440 --> 00:34:08,320 Speaker 3: They're an underdog to advance against against Juventus, which I 699 00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,560 Speaker 3: mean they should be an underdog. They're down on a goal, 700 00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:12,320 Speaker 3: but I think they have a good chance of turning it. 701 00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,000 Speaker 3: But even then they're getting United most likely yep, guaranteed 702 00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:17,719 Speaker 3: in the semis, and then they'd have to beat whoever 703 00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,320 Speaker 3: came out from the other side. Fine, Nord is already 704 00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:23,920 Speaker 3: up a goal, gets the easier semi final and they're 705 00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:26,160 Speaker 3: only nine to one, So like the price is just 706 00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:30,480 Speaker 3: surprising to me on fine rd and so I'm officially 707 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 3: on the Nord wagon, you know. And that way, I 708 00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,640 Speaker 3: won't be devastated if if Roma does go out on 709 00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:37,040 Speaker 3: Pens because we have a good bet with Roma twenty 710 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:38,359 Speaker 3: three to one, and I think they have a very 711 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 3: good chance. It's almost like a hedge in a way. 712 00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:42,879 Speaker 3: Then if if they don't advance, then we have another 713 00:34:42,960 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 3: ticket to ride here. 714 00:34:43,920 --> 00:34:45,920 Speaker 2: Yep, I just bet it as well. And if you 715 00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:47,600 Speaker 2: Saint Gelo's he goes. 716 00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:48,960 Speaker 1: To the final, I'll be in a puddle. Let's just 717 00:34:49,000 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 1: put it that way. 718 00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:51,759 Speaker 3: Because now I have Roma twe you already have lever 719 00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 3: Cusin right, I. 720 00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,880 Speaker 2: Already have Leverkusen eight to one. No, I've got it. 721 00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:58,480 Speaker 1: But yeah, no, it really doesn't make I mean, unless 722 00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 1: the market's telling you that Roma's significantly has a significantly 723 00:35:01,960 --> 00:35:06,080 Speaker 1: better chance if they advance to win the Europa League 724 00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,439 Speaker 1: than Fine Ord. I don't necessarily believe that's be true 725 00:35:08,440 --> 00:35:10,160 Speaker 1: if they're both sitting at nine to one right now. 726 00:35:10,239 --> 00:35:12,480 Speaker 3: So I agree. I mean, I like Roma Moore. I 727 00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:14,479 Speaker 3: think Rome is the better team. But like I was saying, 728 00:35:14,520 --> 00:35:16,239 Speaker 3: like I liked Fineord, pick them in the first leg 729 00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:17,879 Speaker 3: if you could get them, you know, even money minus 730 00:35:17,920 --> 00:35:20,359 Speaker 3: one ten at home. I don't think there's a huge 731 00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 3: gap between these two teams. It was the two teams 732 00:35:22,320 --> 00:35:24,759 Speaker 3: I did not want to draw when the draw came out, 733 00:35:25,000 --> 00:35:29,560 Speaker 3: was United and then Fineord. And so look United now 734 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:31,640 Speaker 3: with the injuries piling up for them too, I think 735 00:35:31,680 --> 00:35:34,560 Speaker 3: that makes them a very vulnerable favorite in this competition. 736 00:35:35,200 --> 00:35:42,200 Speaker 1: So United is vulnerable Anthony, Right, Yeah, that's today. All right, 737 00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:45,560 Speaker 1: that'll do it for this episode of Wonder Goal. Thank 738 00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:49,840 Speaker 1: you all for listening. We will be back on Thursday 739 00:35:49,920 --> 00:35:53,160 Speaker 1: morning to preview the weekend slay at the Premier League 740 00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:57,320 Speaker 1: to a little couple FA Cup semi finals along with 741 00:35:57,640 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 1: the rest of Europe. So for Anthony Dubundo, I'm BJ Cunningham. 742 00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:05,200 Speaker 1: Thank you again to our sponsors at Bet three sixty five, 743 00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,920 Speaker 1: and we'll see you all on Thursday. Morning, good luck 744 00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:08,480 Speaker 1: with your bets. 745 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:21,160 Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 746 00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,000 Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 747 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler