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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named vest Vetting Podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, throwing out job spect. We're

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Speaker 2: setting up to cash to stop.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 2: God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 4: All right, this is the ultimate kabine you want to pull, and.

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Speaker 2: We are underway.

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Speaker 5: Welcome to the week four edition of the Action Network

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Speaker 5: NFL podcast. I'm your host, Chris Raybond, and I'm here

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Speaker 5: with my dude, Stucky, the Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation

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Speaker 5: and a current twelve to four leader in our little

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Speaker 5: pick'em contest, Stuck. You're out to a big lead like

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Speaker 5: this happened last year too, But how you feeling?

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Speaker 2: No, I never got this big of the lead, so

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Speaker 2: it's nice. I just always had a lead over you,

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Speaker 2: and then you caught me at the end. So it's

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Speaker 2: nice to get a cushion. Make you work harder this

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Speaker 2: year to come back. I did have a good week

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Speaker 2: on this podcast, but overall I had a losing week.

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Speaker 2: You took some of the picks that I actually really liked.

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Speaker 2: The three teams that really killed me this week were

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Speaker 2: Baltimore and I'll get into all these games when I

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Speaker 2: get into some other games later. We're the Ravens, Saints,

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Speaker 2: and the Cowboys. So it's time to bounce back and

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Speaker 2: we're gonna get into some good stuff here, stuff that

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Speaker 2: I think that we're starting to see some trends on.

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Speaker 5: I want to kind of on that note, talk about

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Speaker 5: something that you know we've seen in as better and

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Speaker 5: we're kind of noticing. And these are the the high

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Speaker 5: scores and games, and we'll get to the Thursday night game,

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Speaker 5: which is anything but that, and just the moment. We'll

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Speaker 5: of course get into our Sunday six pack shortly where

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Speaker 5: we pick our top six sides of the week.

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Speaker 3: But stuck, I really.

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Speaker 5: Want to kind of get your thoughts on you know,

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Speaker 5: what is the cause of uh, you know, the scoring

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Speaker 5: is up, it's it's twenty five point five of game

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Speaker 5: right now plays per game or up, which explains part

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Speaker 5: of it, but you know it is it the lack

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Speaker 5: of penalties being called? I know penalties are down about

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Speaker 5: a one penalty per game or what are you seeing

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Speaker 5: out there?

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Speaker 2: Yeah? I looked into this a lot last night, and

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Speaker 2: like you, if you look, yeah, the paces up a

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Speaker 2: little bit. And if you look across the board, like

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Speaker 2: home home teams are like five hundred against the spread.

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Speaker 2: Road teams are five hundred against the spread. Obviously, same

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Speaker 2: with you know dogs and favorites and home dogs and

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Speaker 2: so everything is five hundred. Except the one thing that

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Speaker 2: sticks out so far is the increased pace and scoring.

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Speaker 2: And overs have done well and some of the overs

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Speaker 2: that haven't hit have been like prayers a lah Monday

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Speaker 2: night football with the Ravens and Chiefs. So I looked

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Speaker 2: into it. The pace is up, and I've been saying

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Speaker 2: since the beginning that the environment is more conducive to offense. Right,

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Speaker 2: It's easier to communicate, especially on third downs for like

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Speaker 2: road teams, but you know, these really elite quarterbacks can

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Speaker 2: diagnose what's going on. They can say, you know, the

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Speaker 2: offensive line can communicate easier. You can check audibles and

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Speaker 2: everyone's on the same page. The other thing, if you

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Speaker 2: look at all the penalties, I went back to twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: looked at every single penalty type and then looked at

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Speaker 2: the average per game. You know, off sides, offensive pass interference,

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Speaker 2: to lay of games. All of these are right in

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Speaker 2: line with where they've been historically. Same with the legal contact.

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Speaker 2: Actually defensive pass interference, we're at about one one and

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Speaker 2: a half calls per game. That's the highest it's ever

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Speaker 2: been in the last ten years. Average is about one,

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Speaker 2: so we're about about half defensive pass interference more per game.

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Speaker 2: Neutral zone infractions are at aitad not statistically significant, but

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Speaker 2: maybe that's because there's no sound, it's easier to draw

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Speaker 2: people off and jump into the neutral zone, which could

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Speaker 2: lead to just a touchdown when a quarterback chucks it

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Speaker 2: down the field. But the most significant penalties so far,

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Speaker 2: the significant differences are false starts. We're at about one

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Speaker 2: point eight per game historically. Yeah, you know, we're at

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Speaker 2: about two and a half, so we're at about a

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Speaker 2: half of false start if you are and fall starts

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Speaker 2: aren't just say hey, it's just five yard, it's like

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Speaker 2: that could kill one drive, right, It's just it's a

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Speaker 2: could kill your drive, put you behind the sticks and

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Speaker 2: ends up being a punt. More time comes off, and

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Speaker 2: then holding calls are way down. I mean since twenty ten,

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Speaker 2: here's the holdings per game two point three two point

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Speaker 2: three two point four, two point two, two point four,

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Speaker 2: two point seven, two point seven, two point five, two

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Speaker 2: point eight, two point seven. This year one point six

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Speaker 2: holdings per game, and if you go back to last year,

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Speaker 2: this was at the first couple weeks, it was like

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Speaker 2: four or five holds per game, and I think the

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Speaker 2: en and people were complaining about all the holdings. I

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Speaker 2: think the NFL said, like, we got to ease up

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Speaker 2: on the holding and I think that they might have

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Speaker 2: even said coming into this year, we need to roll

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Speaker 2: back the holding calls even more. It aligns with everything

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Speaker 2: the NFL wants, right points, fantasy exciting. It's been about

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Speaker 2: an impact of about two and a half points per

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Speaker 2: game on just the the decrease in penalties on the

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Speaker 2: offensive side of the ball, namely false starts and holdings,

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Speaker 2: and the slide increase in defensive pass interference, which could

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Speaker 2: be random, but the fall starts to make sense because

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Speaker 2: it's quiet, right, you can hear the snap count. The

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Speaker 2: holdings doesn't really make sense. Maybe there's more communication, you're

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Speaker 2: more position, but I think it's that's something like that

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Speaker 2: comes from the league, like hey, let's call fewer holding

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Speaker 2: calls leads to more points. So overall, it's about two

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Speaker 2: and a half points per game. If I if I

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Speaker 2: go and adjust my totals two and a half points

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Speaker 2: per game, I wouldn't have played a bunch of the

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Speaker 2: unders that I did. So yeah, I'm very hesitant to

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Speaker 2: play unders. And it's something that I'm monitoring here going forward.

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Speaker 2: Is this holding thing, A trend, is the false start thing,

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Speaker 2: A trend is the no noise really this conducive to

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Speaker 2: offense and how we'll pace pick up. But it's definitely

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Speaker 2: been an overs game so far this year.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's that's great stuff really for doing that research.

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Speaker 5: And you know, I had seen the same thing, And

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Speaker 5: this is kind of significant to me because you know,

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Speaker 5: I always thought that one of the kind of hitting

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Speaker 5: edge hidden edges, excuse me, embedding unders was that the

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Speaker 5: NFL never takes kneel downs out of there, like the

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Speaker 5: rushing stats. If you're modeling a game, like you have

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Speaker 5: to remember that like there's these like extra it's usually

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Speaker 5: about one and a half plays that really aren't going

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Speaker 5: to do anything. And like now it's like these lack

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Speaker 5: of holdings has kind of offset that and gone in

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Speaker 5: completely the other direction, where now there's almost like this

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Speaker 5: hidden extra potential to score, which you know, we have

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Speaker 5: so little data on because it really just started happening

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Speaker 5: out of nowhere this year, and I have started to

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Speaker 5: do it a little more aggressively, just kind of wait

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Speaker 5: the league average baselines for this year in both fantasy

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Speaker 5: and you know, in what I'm doing for betting the

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Speaker 5: power ratings and all that stuff, because I have as

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Speaker 5: well gotten killed on some unders, and I think that

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Speaker 5: you know, it's also a situation where we've seen this

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Speaker 5: plenty of times in other leagues, where like in the

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Speaker 5: NBA is notorious for it, Like they do it on purpose,

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Speaker 5: you know, in the biggest games at the biggest moments

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Speaker 5: to try to you know, get a game to go

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Speaker 5: a certain way. So like these things could start leading

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Speaker 5: to like, you know, more tie games, more you know,

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Speaker 5: like this, This could be big if this keeps happening,

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Speaker 5: because you can't really prove it so and I don't

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Speaker 5: think anyone's mad at it, so I think it'll continue.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, And if people are like it's two and a

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Speaker 2: half points per game, that's enormous, especially in the NFL market,

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Speaker 2: just an enormous amount. And like most of your bets

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Speaker 2: in the NFL and college football, most of them are

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Speaker 2: gonna come down to like four or five plays, Right,

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Speaker 2: you hit a big explosive play, you get a huge turnover.

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Speaker 2: There's four or five like really pivotal points in a

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Speaker 2: game that are gonna decide not who wins on times,

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Speaker 2: but decide to covers.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 2: If you have a couple fewer holding calls in a

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Speaker 2: game and then throwing another pass interference call, that is

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Speaker 2: a massive edge for the offense and then for totals.

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Speaker 2: I mean instead of having a holding call and then

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Speaker 2: probably killing your drive, running more clock off and then

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Speaker 2: you're punting instead, you miss that call, and then you're driving,

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Speaker 2: and then you score, and then you're kicking it all. Like,

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Speaker 2: the difference in just those few minutes of that entire

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Speaker 2: dynamic of what it does to a total is crazy. Now,

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Speaker 2: there could there could be some noise in randomness in here,

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Speaker 2: which is a difficult thing about looking at at you know,

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Speaker 2: only three weeks of data, but it's definitely something worth monitoring.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I want to repeat.

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Speaker 5: That point and highlight that which you just mentioned. It's

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Speaker 5: that most of the bets that we are making, even

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Speaker 5: as professional better than and many you know, casual betters

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Speaker 5: are going to come within that two and a half

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Speaker 5: point space. Like when we say, oh, I see value

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Speaker 5: on that underdog, or I see value on that under

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Speaker 5: whatever the line may be, there's usually not like three points.

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Speaker 5: And that's something to you know, really keep in mind.

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Speaker 5: And it's it's huge as it pertains the key numbers

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Speaker 5: too with totals, because now you have you know, even

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Speaker 5: you know, people like us, like we're out here making

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Speaker 5: the totals and making our totals every week, publishing them,

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Speaker 5: and you know that that can be enough to kind

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Speaker 5: of get me to a key number that I might

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Speaker 5: have gone, like, you know, forty two five on a

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Speaker 5: number before, and now it's like I gotta go the

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Speaker 5: forty three because it's just you just you have to

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Speaker 5: kind of account for this. And our hands are tied

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Speaker 5: as well, because as you said, the sample was so

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Speaker 5: small that you really don't want to go and say, Okay,

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Speaker 5: this is the new league average, this is the new normal.

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Speaker 5: But if you don't account for it, I think it

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Speaker 5: could be even more detrimental. So I've definitely got a

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Speaker 5: lot more aggressive this past week.

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Speaker 2: I adjusted my totals up a little bit, and then

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Speaker 2: I'm being more gun shy about betting totals this week

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Speaker 2: and just collecting more data and watching. But yeah, it's

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Speaker 2: one of the biggest storylines the NFL so far.

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Speaker 5: All Right, you know what is not one of the

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Speaker 5: biggest storylines in the NFL is this Jets Broncos Thursday

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Speaker 5: night football matchup. But we're still going to cover it here.

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Speaker 5: Let's get into our Thursday night preview.

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Speaker 6: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 5: We got Jags Dolphins last week, then they give us

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Speaker 5: Jets Broncos. I mean, I know the stakes are high

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Speaker 5: and they're not calling holding penalties, So how do we get.

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Speaker 3: Stuck with these two games back for back?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll be really interested to see the weather's supposed

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Speaker 2: to be bad in Cleveland for this Yankees game and

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Speaker 2: then the Brewers without Oh wait, we're talking about I

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Speaker 2: was talking about what I'm gonna be watching tomorrow night. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I have absolutely no interest in this game. Now. If

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Speaker 2: you grabbed the Jets early before they announced Ripping was

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Speaker 2: a quarterback, great, I wish I would have it was

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Speaker 2: plus three. I think that they're at BETMGM right now.

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Speaker 2: They are one point favorites. The Broncos have been just

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Speaker 2: decimated by injuries. They're under a third starting quarterback now

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Speaker 2: in Week four. But there's these teams, and the Jets

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Speaker 2: are oh and three against the spread, and historically it's

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Speaker 2: actually not been profitable to back oh and three against

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Speaker 2: the spread teams in Week four. It's not like it's

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Speaker 2: a huge edge to fade them. But there are certain

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Speaker 2: teams that are just worthy of not betting. I said

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Speaker 2: this last week. The Jets for me until I see

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Speaker 2: pulse anything. And I hate Adam Gase and I'm not

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Speaker 2: a Sam Donald truther. I think he stinks. The offensive

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Speaker 2: line stinks. I mean everything about this in six, but

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Speaker 2: so does this current version of the Broncos. And Brent

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Speaker 2: Rippon might be the worst quarterback we've seen start in

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Speaker 2: the NFL in quite some time. But to me, well,

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Speaker 2: I mean, we might have six or seven baseball playoff

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Speaker 2: gans smart. Thank god, I won't be touching it. But

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Speaker 2: I know you like the Jets and Donald and Gase.

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Speaker 2: Good luck?

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Speaker 3: Oh that is well.

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Speaker 5: I got this with the Jets plus three, and I

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Speaker 5: wrote it up for our early time.

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Speaker 2: Oh there you go.

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Speaker 3: Colum on the Action Network That's why you know, a

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Speaker 3: lot of the.

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Speaker 2: Lines that I'm fine with that I'm fine with.

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Speaker 5: Right, we get the best value on it's because we're

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Speaker 5: betting them early in the week, you know, maybe when

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Speaker 5: the Sunday games are still going on, even but there

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Speaker 5: are only so many situations where a bad team is

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Speaker 5: gonna get a win, and even worse, the wrong team

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Speaker 5: is favored. And I just thought the Jets at home

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Speaker 5: on a short week, going against a quarterback that was

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Speaker 5: supposed to be the fourth string but Blake Bordos isn't

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Speaker 5: right because it's Thursday night, of course, so they're going

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Speaker 5: with this guy because Jeft Driscoll that was predictable, like

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Speaker 5: couldn't score against Tampa.

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Speaker 3: It's a mess. Think about this.

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Speaker 5: The Jets are number thirty one in the league in DVA.

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Speaker 5: The only team worst to them is the Denver Broncos

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Speaker 5: and the like the Jets have had their starting quarterback

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Speaker 5: all three weeks. The Broncos like are still worse to them,

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Speaker 5: and they've had a lot for a week. And like,

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Speaker 5: it's just like I want about the under in this

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Speaker 5: game too. But you know, as we just talked about,

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Speaker 5: shenanigans could go on. You know, I think the Jets

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Speaker 5: are getting crowdterback. It looks like Becton's not gonna miss

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Speaker 5: the game either, so you know, it's just an uncomfortable under.

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Speaker 5: But uh yeah, I think if in Wess you are

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Speaker 5: able to get the Jets at I actually make them

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Speaker 5: favored and I and I had this like that for

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Speaker 5: a while. But yeah, if you can't get them at

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Speaker 5: a picker or better, I would I wouldn't touch this game.

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Speaker 5: The under just makes me uncomfortable because it's at the lowest.

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Speaker 5: It's at like forty forty and a half, and you

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Speaker 5: know you have the key number at forty one, you

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Speaker 5: have another at thirty nine.

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Speaker 3: Just I just it's an ugly game. There is one.

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Speaker 5: Interesting thing about this, though, Adam Gasee, I have like

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Speaker 5: a whole bunch of trends set up in our in

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Speaker 5: bet labs where it just alerts me when to fade him.

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Speaker 3: And usually I'm expecting.

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Speaker 2: To get an alert every Sunday.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, like it just blows up my whole phone every

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Speaker 5: every wake a minute. But nah, I expected to get

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Speaker 5: some kind of ridiculous contrary and a word of why

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Speaker 5: I should bet on Brett Rippon, and instead I was

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Speaker 5: looking at it gaze awful loss at home with a

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Speaker 5: spread of between three and three and a half and

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Speaker 5: three and a half plus in mind is three and

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Speaker 5: a half, so close spread, it's like the only time

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Speaker 5: when you can better on gasee and and uh and

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Speaker 5: be profitable. He's like seven and five and because like

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Speaker 5: I have the same trend set up, but for him,

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Speaker 5: just betting on him to keep losing. Essentially, usually you're

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Speaker 5: kind of going the other way in these situations, but

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Speaker 5: betting on him to keep losing with a spread of

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Speaker 5: four or more, He's like four and thirteen or something

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Speaker 5: like that. So I just thought that was interesting but

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Speaker 5: ugly game. A lot better ones to get into.

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Speaker 3: Before we kick things off. Two very quick reminders.

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Speaker 5: One, if you plan to bet on the NFL this

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Speaker 5: season and haven't downloaded the free award winning Action Network AP,

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00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:25,200
Speaker 5: what are you doing. It's got better tools analysis from

304
00:14:25,240 --> 00:14:28,880
Speaker 5: myself Stucky in the whole Action Network team in it

305
00:14:28,960 --> 00:14:32,240
Speaker 5: lets you track every bet that you make for free.

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00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:34,400
Speaker 3: And number two, if you want a chance.

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00:14:34,200 --> 00:14:38,720
Speaker 5: At a free Vegas vacation, don't forget to enter the

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00:14:38,760 --> 00:14:44,440
Speaker 5: Action Pods Tournament of Champions presented by bet MGM listeners.

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Speaker 5: We're entering the fourth week of this free Yahoo DFS tournament.

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Speaker 5: We've made it just for you, guys, our podcast listeners.

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Speaker 3: Top five each.

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Speaker 5: Week get a chance to play for a free Vegas

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Speaker 5: vacation valued at over stacks courtesy of bet MGM. That's

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Speaker 5: five thousand dollars courtesy of bet MGM. There are seventeen

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00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:10,680
Speaker 5: weeks in the NFL season, guys. That means eighty five

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00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:14,200
Speaker 5: total slots for the wild Card Weekend Grand Finale.

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00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:16,800
Speaker 3: Sixty of them are still up for grabs.

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Speaker 5: There are great prizes, you've got nutt nows, and a

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Speaker 5: a Queen slate, so join the fun by clicking on

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00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:28,680
Speaker 5: the wink in our episode description. All right, now, it's

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Speaker 5: time for our coaches pep talk, and this one.

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Speaker 3: Is easy stuck.

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Speaker 5: We're gonna go with the pep talk coming to us

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Speaker 5: courtesy of the two thousand and sixth film Little Miss Sunshine,

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Speaker 5: and we're dedicating it to the Jets, to Sam Donald,

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Speaker 5: to betting on Sam Donald, and to anyone out there

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Speaker 5: that wasn't scared enough to take the Jets at plus

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Speaker 5: money when they saw that they were facing a third

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Speaker 5: maybe four string quarterback of the Denver Broncos.

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Speaker 2: They're not a loser.

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Speaker 4: Why'd you get the idea you're a loser? You know

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Speaker 4: what a loser is. A real loser is somebody that's

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Speaker 4: so afraid of not winning they don't even try. Now

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Speaker 4: you're trying, right, then, you're not a loser. We're gonna

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Speaker 4: have fun tomorrow. Right, we can tell them.

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Speaker 2: All to go to hell.

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Speaker 5: All right, let's get off of this game and into

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Speaker 5: something better. It is time for a Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thirsty for action, let's crack Elton the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 5: If you guys are unfamiliar, this is where we each

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Speaker 5: draft our top six favorite spreadbats and we score the

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Speaker 5: top one two points, the other is one point, and

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Speaker 5: we also get a point for a total. So a

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Speaker 5: little friendly contest that Stucky is destroying me.

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Speaker 3: In twelve to four.

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Speaker 5: Through two weeks, you're having like a revenge season. I'm

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Speaker 5: gonna need you to show out every week, lose some bets.

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Speaker 2: Bro Well, just to set up before we get into

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Speaker 2: the six packs. So set up how I'm a pro

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Speaker 2: week four. You know, besides being a little hesitant on totals,

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Speaker 2: adjusting them upwards a little bit. Keep my eye on

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Speaker 2: those things. I'm not into buying low this week. Some

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Speaker 2: of the teams that you could buy low and o

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Speaker 2: and three against the spread, I want no part of.

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Speaker 2: I think you're gonna take a part of some of them.

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Speaker 2: I'm all about selling high this week. And let me know.

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Speaker 2: If you bet on teams that were three and oh

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Speaker 2: against the spread in week four, since two thousand and three,

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Speaker 2: you'd have gone twenty four thirty eight and one against

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Speaker 2: the spread. That's below thirty nine percent, miserable, negative twenty

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Speaker 2: two point six percent. ROI let me just paint a

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Speaker 2: picture for you. I'll take you back to last year.

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Speaker 2: These teams that look so dominant and cover the first

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00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:40,360
Speaker 2: three weeks, they're usually not as good as they look

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Speaker 2: through three weeks. Take it back to last year Week four,

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Speaker 2: the Rams three and oh undefeated, three and oh against

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Speaker 2: the spread, the Packers three and oh undefeated, three and

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Speaker 2: oh against the spread. Well, the Rams got blown out

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Speaker 2: by the Bucks at home. They got fifty. Then the

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Speaker 2: Packers lost on I think Monday night to the Eagles.

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Speaker 2: No one gave them a shot in matt Oh. Wait,

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Speaker 2: we had the undefeated Cowboys, who've covered the first three weeks.

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Speaker 2: They went to New Orleans with Teddy Bridgewater quarterback and

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Speaker 2: they lost twelve to ten. And then the Chiefs, they

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Speaker 2: were undefeated and undefeated against the spread. They went to

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Speaker 2: Detroit and again they should have lost and didn't cover.

378
00:18:18,200 --> 00:18:20,159
Speaker 2: So they're zero to four against the spread. If you

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Speaker 2: favored those teams look so good over the first three weeks.

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Speaker 2: That's a teaser for what I'm how I'm approaching Week four.

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Speaker 2: But I have to start for my two pointer, my

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Speaker 2: first pick of the Sunday six pack with the New

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Speaker 2: England Patriots plus seven City for the second week in

384
00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,159
Speaker 2: a row. It is the Bitter Bill. Bitter Bill. It

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Speaker 2: feels good this year to just to be able to

386
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Speaker 2: bet on Bill and the Patriots as a dog and

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Speaker 2: these short numbers at home. But look, Bill Belichick. I mean,

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Speaker 2: this is almost an auto bet for me. Bill Belichick

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00:18:57,359 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 2: catching points. He's twenty three and ten and two again

390
00:19:00,160 --> 00:19:02,200
Speaker 2: the spread as an underdog since two thousand and three.

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Speaker 2: He's eleven and five straight up over the past fifteen

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Speaker 2: times he's been an underdog. He's covering as an underdog

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Speaker 2: in those thirty five games, by an average of seven

394
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Speaker 2: points per game. Absurd. So you know you have the

395
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Speaker 2: Chiefs obviously on a short week here, the Patriots will

396
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Speaker 2: have the full week to prepare. One of the things

397
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Speaker 2: I was worried about with the Patriots is David Andrews,

398
00:19:22,200 --> 00:19:24,840
Speaker 2: their center went on ir Joe Thuney played excellent at

399
00:19:24,840 --> 00:19:27,119
Speaker 2: center last week. He filled it admirably. I'm not as

400
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 2: worried about the interior of their offensive line now. But again,

401
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,600
Speaker 2: what happened with the ra with the Ravens last week

402
00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,399
Speaker 2: is and this is there's a couple problems with the

403
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Speaker 2: Ravens in that game. You know, they missed a couple

404
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,480
Speaker 2: wide up and touchdown passes, Andrews drop one. But the

405
00:19:40,720 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 2: game they they approached the game. Mark Jackson just had

406
00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:46,679
Speaker 2: a bad game. But they approached the game very poorly.

407
00:19:46,680 --> 00:19:49,600
Speaker 2: From a defensive standpoint, they were just blitzing the house NonStop,

408
00:19:49,800 --> 00:19:51,439
Speaker 2: which is what they normally do. But you can't do

409
00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:52,320
Speaker 2: that against Bobes.

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00:19:52,560 --> 00:19:54,919
Speaker 3: It made sense. I was so surprised at that. I'm

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Speaker 3: glad you brought that up, especially.

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Speaker 2: On like third and fourteen, third and eighteen, and it's

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Speaker 2: like you're blitzing everybody.

414
00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:01,800
Speaker 5: It made no sense, and not only just that, but

415
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Speaker 5: also because the Chargers they put like twice the whole

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00:20:04,840 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 5: game and they made they made the Chiefs go to

417
00:20:06,600 --> 00:20:09,359
Speaker 5: overtime to score twenty three on them. And this was

418
00:20:09,359 --> 00:20:12,040
Speaker 5: so predictable too, because like Lamar Jackson also had a

419
00:20:12,119 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 5: terrible game against them last time. It was like a

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Speaker 5: I think it was like a rare bad game for

421
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:17,359
Speaker 5: the Ravens coaching staff more than anything.

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00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,239
Speaker 2: Yeah, they weren't aggressive either, but what happens in that

423
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:23,520
Speaker 2: game is it happened the last time the Chiefs play

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00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:27,080
Speaker 2: their into is the Ravens lost the game script because

425
00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,000
Speaker 2: they were averaging I mean they only ran the ball

426
00:20:29,040 --> 00:20:31,119
Speaker 2: like eight times as the first half they got too

427
00:20:31,200 --> 00:20:33,800
Speaker 2: far behind, they abandoned the run. I mean you can

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00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:35,679
Speaker 2: still run all over the Chiefs. They were averaging eight

429
00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,480
Speaker 2: nine yards per carry and they had to abandon it

430
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Speaker 2: because they got too far behind. And the script to

431
00:20:39,960 --> 00:20:42,199
Speaker 2: beat the Chiefs, the Chargers give it to you all

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Speaker 2: the time. You have to run on them because it

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00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,199
Speaker 2: does one of a million things. It keeps Mahomes on

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00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,679
Speaker 2: the sideline. You can move the ball on them. They

435
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:51,639
Speaker 2: have a good pass rush. They have you know their

436
00:20:51,960 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 2: their scheme is Cater just stopped getting a lead and

437
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 2: then stopping the pass and then blitzing you and getting sacks.

438
00:20:58,280 --> 00:20:59,800
Speaker 2: But if you run the ball, you can control the

439
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:01,960
Speaker 2: c off against the defense. That again is thirtieth d

440
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: WI against the run. And then also you're keeping your

441
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,600
Speaker 2: defensive line fresh to be able to try to get

442
00:21:08,640 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 2: after Mahomes because you can't blitz everyone. You're gonna need,

443
00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,080
Speaker 2: you know, like we saw with the Chargers, You're gonna

444
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,919
Speaker 2: need your defensive ends or your into your guys to

445
00:21:16,040 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 2: make a play, get a sack on Mahomes to kill

446
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 2: a drive, right like, That's that's how you're gonna have

447
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: to stop them. So I do trust that Belichick here

448
00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,760
Speaker 2: won't blitz the house. He's seeing Mahomes a bunch. He

449
00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:30,760
Speaker 2: has a great secondary. He's gonna, I think, throw in

450
00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,440
Speaker 2: some more cover three looks and you know, in their

451
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:35,879
Speaker 2: in their dime defense, similar to what the Chargers have

452
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 2: done against Mahomes. And I think that New England will

453
00:21:39,040 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 2: be able to run all over Kansas City just like

454
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:44,720
Speaker 2: most teams are, and I think New England will stay

455
00:21:44,760 --> 00:21:47,240
Speaker 2: in it. I'm sure that the Chiefs will probably win

456
00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 2: this game, but I think New England can keep this

457
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 2: competitive throughout by running it. They'll have a really good

458
00:21:51,960 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 2: game plan defensively, Chiefs on a short week, which hurts

459
00:21:55,080 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 2: them and their prep. You know, after they had a

460
00:21:57,280 --> 00:21:59,679
Speaker 2: brilliant I think if credit to the Chiefs too, they

461
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: had a brilliant game plan against the blitzing Ravens with

462
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,560
Speaker 2: some of their their play calls, you know, the shovel

463
00:22:05,600 --> 00:22:09,159
Speaker 2: passes the screens, I mean, and then obviously Mahomes you

464
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 2: blitzed me, just runs backwards twenty yards and then throws

465
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:14,240
Speaker 2: at seventy yards for a touchdown. But their their game

466
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:16,320
Speaker 2: plan was great. So now you're in a short week

467
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,360
Speaker 2: here preparing for the Patriots. So I just it's give

468
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,840
Speaker 2: me the seven here. I make it around six with

469
00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,840
Speaker 2: the situation and matchup. But there's a lot of things

470
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 2: that I like. I trust Belichick here as a dog

471
00:22:29,520 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 2: and to him him to come with an effective defensive

472
00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 2: game plan that I think we're gonna be able to

473
00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 2: move the ball on the ground.

474
00:22:34,800 --> 00:22:37,439
Speaker 5: Yeah, I you know, this is probably the most interesting

475
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 5: game of the week to me. I'm kind of in

476
00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:41,680
Speaker 5: line with the market right now, just when I'm raiding

477
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 5: these teams. You know, the Chiefs for me, I think

478
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 5: always had a little bit of an edge, you know,

479
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 5: even they were right up there with the Ravens for him,

480
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 5: even when you know the Ravens came out hot because

481
00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,119
Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes is just the equalizer and Andy Reid is

482
00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:59,320
Speaker 5: like an underrated equalizer because Harba is really good as well.

483
00:22:59,320 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 5: Like that whole Ravens hovating staff, it's really good. You

484
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,439
Speaker 5: look at any of their like against the spread numbers

485
00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 5: Prime Time Monday, and it's it's up there with Reed.

486
00:23:06,240 --> 00:23:09,880
Speaker 5: They don't lose very often. So like you know, it's

487
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:12,879
Speaker 5: not a great week I think for for for lines.

488
00:23:13,119 --> 00:23:16,119
Speaker 5: But so I get, I get taking the seven points

489
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,479
Speaker 5: in a game that you know the Chiefs clear I mean,

490
00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 5: the Patriots clearly have a quarterback that can take advantage

491
00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:23,159
Speaker 5: of the Chiefs. And the thing about it is that

492
00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 5: Belichick has the blueprint, which I think will help. Because

493
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:29,679
Speaker 5: you had the Chiefs have to play the Texans, and

494
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:32,679
Speaker 5: then they had to play the another quarterback who they

495
00:23:32,720 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 5: didn't prepare for in Herbert because you know, they thought

496
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:38,360
Speaker 5: Tarot was starting, and then they have to play Jackson.

497
00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:40,360
Speaker 5: So I think like Cam Newton might run the ball

498
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 5: thirty times in this game, I almost want to say

499
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 5: that the under could be a good play, but then

500
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,959
Speaker 5: it's Patrick Mahomes and there's no holding penalty.

501
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:48,719
Speaker 3: So that's where I am on it.

502
00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 5: But I respect your I respect the pick because it's

503
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:53,800
Speaker 5: you know, you're taking seven points.

504
00:23:53,840 --> 00:23:55,640
Speaker 3: It can't really go wrong doing that.

505
00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 2: The chief staff is great, but which so this short

506
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 2: week hurts them for a couple of reasons. I mean,

507
00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,360
Speaker 2: obviously you get less. Perhaps you played in Monday night

508
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,639
Speaker 2: in Baltimore, you come back to come back to Kansas City.

509
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:09,479
Speaker 2: It's Tuesday, and I can tell you that you know

510
00:24:09,520 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: there are staffs that will start looking at things the

511
00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 2: week before for their next week opponents sor right, you

512
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:19,800
Speaker 2: have some assistant start looking at this. But based on

513
00:24:19,840 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 2: what I saw and based on just common sense, I

514
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,360
Speaker 2: doubt the Chiefs put in any time for the Patriots

515
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:27,920
Speaker 2: last week. That Ravens game was so big to them

516
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 2: because it's your main competition for the one seed in

517
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,240
Speaker 2: the AFC, which means you're the only team who gets

518
00:24:33,240 --> 00:24:36,120
Speaker 2: a buye. So that win was basically worth two wins

519
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: in a way because now you have the head to

520
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:39,679
Speaker 2: head advantage over the Ravens. So like I bet they

521
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:42,119
Speaker 2: put in everything they had for preparing for the Ravens,

522
00:24:42,119 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 2: and now you're on a short week. So I think

523
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 2: that just the situation hurts, you know, the brilliance of

524
00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:48,360
Speaker 2: that chief staff.

525
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:51,919
Speaker 5: You're getting strength on strength, and last week it was

526
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 5: strength on strength. I took the Chiefs because they were

527
00:24:54,600 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 5: the underdog. They were getting the points. Now the Patriots

528
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,640
Speaker 5: are getting a points, so I can't argue with you there.

529
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,359
Speaker 5: Newton in his career actually thirty three and twenty three

530
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 5: against the spread as a dog. Patrick Mahomes nineteen and

531
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 5: twelve is a favorite. It's just a lot of these

532
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 5: strength on strengths and arrow and the Arrowhead unders in

533
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,280
Speaker 5: Andy Reid in the Andy Reid aeron.

534
00:25:14,320 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: I don't know if that will continue to be a

535
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 3: trend or not.

536
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 5: You know, it's kind of different with you know, different

537
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 5: fan situation. But thirty three, twenty three and one fifty

538
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 5: nine percent in the Read era and then you have

539
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:30,439
Speaker 5: New England Road unders twenty two and eleven to the

540
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,960
Speaker 5: under sixty seven percent since twenty sixteen. I think this

541
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:36,280
Speaker 5: there's like a history of this team being a little

542
00:25:36,320 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 5: bit overrated in those final Brady years, and this could

543
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:41,639
Speaker 5: be another situation like that not not that they'll be

544
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 5: under overrated in terms of how good they are, but

545
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:48,200
Speaker 5: how you know, how many how like they can bring

546
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:49,919
Speaker 5: games to the over just because you know they have

547
00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,640
Speaker 5: Cam Newton now, but they could really try to ground

548
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 5: and pound, and Bill Belichick could be in his like clock,

549
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:59,399
Speaker 5: you know, killing form and trying to waste clock on

550
00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 5: puns and all the time types of stuff. So I

551
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 5: would actually lean under. But yeah, I really hesitate to

552
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 5: to go too deep into two unders with uh. With

553
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 5: what's going on for my number one pick, the number

554
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:18,680
Speaker 5: two pick in the week four Sunday six pack, I

555
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 5: am going with the Jacksonville Jaguars, And second week in

556
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 5: a row. They let me down last week just all

557
00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 5: around poor performance. You know, That's what you get sometimes

558
00:26:29,840 --> 00:26:33,280
Speaker 5: on Thursday, unfortunately. So I'm bracing it for another one

559
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,399
Speaker 5: with the Jets. But I'll continue to take the value

560
00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,439
Speaker 5: in these kind of spots. And I look at the Jaguars,

561
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 5: and uh, I see a team that's actually right now anyway,

562
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 5: And and and I know their chart came back to practice.

563
00:26:46,160 --> 00:26:48,480
Speaker 3: Their center lender, I don't.

564
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:52,200
Speaker 5: Believe he has practice yet, which is somewhat of an issue,

565
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,760
Speaker 5: but not as much against this this Bengals team, I

566
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,160
Speaker 5: don't think. But but if you look at the Jags,

567
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,879
Speaker 5: even with that bad week, uh, this is one of

568
00:27:00,920 --> 00:27:04,719
Speaker 5: the top teams in offensive schedule adjusted efficiency.

569
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 3: Gardner Minshew I talked about.

570
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:09,000
Speaker 5: Him last week wasn't the right time obviously because he

571
00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,679
Speaker 5: played probably his worst game since they the you know,

572
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,920
Speaker 5: the quitting years of of last the quitting weeks of

573
00:27:15,000 --> 00:27:20,879
Speaker 5: last year. But Gardner Minshew is already like in the

574
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 5: you know, middle tier in terms of if you look

575
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 5: at all of the you know, the efficiency metrics since

576
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 5: he came into the league, you know, he's right around

577
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 5: you know, fifteen, ten, eleven, thirteen, seventeen, not not like

578
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,200
Speaker 5: a Sam Darnold who's like all the way at the bottom.

579
00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:37,240
Speaker 3: So he gives him that kind of edge.

580
00:27:37,680 --> 00:27:41,280
Speaker 5: Both defenses, I think are are kind of shaky, but overall,

581
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 5: this Jaguars team is just I think a superior team

582
00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:48,320
Speaker 5: to this Bengals team that for as good as Joe

583
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:50,480
Speaker 5: Burrow has, like you know, he's flashed at times like

584
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 5: this team could just go stretches without scoring, and and

585
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:57,680
Speaker 5: they've also converted five or five fourth downs, so even

586
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 5: some of their final scores, you know, they shouldn't we

587
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 5: have been in that game? Yet last week against the Eagles,

588
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 5: they probably shouldn't have made it as close as they

589
00:28:04,000 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 5: did against the.

590
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:07,720
Speaker 3: Browns on Thursday night.

591
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 5: And you also had this like ugly game against the

592
00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 5: Chargers where for some reason, the Chargers, you know, that

593
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 5: was a Tyrod Taylor game. So I'm not buying the

594
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:19,320
Speaker 5: Bengals opponents. I know the Jags lost to the Dolphins,

595
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 5: but overall, you know, the Jags lost by three to

596
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 5: the Titans.

597
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:25,440
Speaker 3: We're able to stick around it and give them a scare,

598
00:28:25,520 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 3: and they.

599
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,200
Speaker 5: Also upset the Colt So I just see this as

600
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:30,600
Speaker 5: more too kind of like even we match bad teams.

601
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 5: I'm going back to the well with the quarterback that

602
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,280
Speaker 5: at least right now, I think is more efficient, Joe Burrow.

603
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 5: I love them, but it's been a struggle and you

604
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:43,880
Speaker 5: know T Higgins may help, but it's been a real struggle.

605
00:28:43,480 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 3: With the offensive line and not getting done.

606
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 2: I have no feel there. I mean, if I were

607
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:49,920
Speaker 2: to look at anything, I would maybe look at the

608
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:54,520
Speaker 2: under It's really gross because both defenses are awful, but

609
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 2: both these teams play really slow. You know, when they're

610
00:28:57,960 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 2: not behind, then have to come back to or you know,

611
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 2: the defenses are bad, but if you look at pace,

612
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 2: I think they're both both bottom ten. And if you

613
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 2: think that this game will be close throughout, you know

614
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 2: you're not gonna have one of the teams scrambling. So

615
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:12,360
Speaker 2: I would maybe look.

616
00:29:12,280 --> 00:29:14,760
Speaker 5: Under real quick about that, because I actually bet the

617
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 5: over at forty four and a half, and now I

618
00:29:17,200 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 5: actually think it's too high. It's at like forty nine.

619
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:19,480
Speaker 3: And a half.

620
00:29:19,520 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 5: I bet the over just because you know, forty five

621
00:29:22,400 --> 00:29:24,240
Speaker 5: are the key number, and I have this more in

622
00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 5: the in the forty seven is forty eight range, But

623
00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 5: now it's like forty nine and a half, you know,

624
00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:32,680
Speaker 5: going on fifty, which I kind of do think.

625
00:29:32,600 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 3: Is too high for those exact mentions.

626
00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:36,600
Speaker 5: So this is an odd week in which I might

627
00:29:36,680 --> 00:29:38,160
Speaker 5: end up middling.

628
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 3: A total because it's just getting it's just getting out

629
00:29:42,200 --> 00:29:42,480
Speaker 3: of hand.

630
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:45,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, you got some key numbers that you'll have there

631
00:29:45,560 --> 00:29:47,640
Speaker 2: as a middle shot. It's interesting to me that some

632
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 2: of the matchups with the lowest projected pace. You know,

633
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,320
Speaker 2: you have the Texans and the Vikings, neither of them

634
00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:59,240
Speaker 2: are really fast. You have the Jaguars and Bengals in

635
00:29:59,320 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 2: neutral situation, they're really slow, and then the Seahawks and Dolphins.

636
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,760
Speaker 2: But all six have really bad defenses. So it's like,

637
00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:08,640
Speaker 2: that's what, yeah, I kind of have to figure out.

638
00:30:08,640 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 2: Here leads me to my second selection, the third overall

639
00:30:13,440 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 2: pick of the Sunday six pack. M rolling with the

640
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 2: Miami Dolphins at bet MGM. Right now they are plus

641
00:30:22,320 --> 00:30:25,880
Speaker 2: six and a half. I grab some plus seven earlier

642
00:30:25,920 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 2: in the week the contest. It doesn't matter situationally, it's

643
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:31,800
Speaker 2: you know, the Dolphins. I love the Dolphins staff, I

644
00:30:31,800 --> 00:30:34,080
Speaker 2: love Gallia, love Flores. They have extra time to repair

645
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 2: coming off of the Thursday night here, and the Seahawks

646
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:39,320
Speaker 2: are just Look, the Seahawks could be zero and three.

647
00:30:39,480 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 2: They've gotten every bounce in the world, and Russell Wilson

648
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,640
Speaker 2: has played perfect football and they've barely won these games.

649
00:30:45,680 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 2: I mean, even if it's Atlanta, they go they Atlanta

650
00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 2: goes zero for four and fourth downs Seattle scores on theirs.

651
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 2: They get every fumble. I mean, the turnover luck is extreme,

652
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,440
Speaker 2: the fourth down louck is extreme. And all the Seattle

653
00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 2: team does is win one possession games. Last they went

654
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 2: twelve game including the playoffs, they won one by more

655
00:31:02,920 --> 00:31:05,960
Speaker 2: than one possession. One even with Russell Wilson to god

656
00:31:06,440 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 2: one game by more than one possession. Why their defense stinks.

657
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 2: Their offensive line stinks, and usually they're coaching stinks. Now

658
00:31:14,320 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 2: their defense is all banged up. I don't think Jamal

659
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:18,600
Speaker 2: Adams is gonna play. They have, I mean injuries all

660
00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 2: over their secondary. They're signing practice squad guys. Their first

661
00:31:21,400 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 2: round draft pic linebacker is out. They still can't get

662
00:31:24,280 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: any pressure, any pressure whatsoever. Uh, It's why it's one

663
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 2: of the worst defense in the NFL. Think about the

664
00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 2: Sealks r another three and oh they've gone over all

665
00:31:31,280 --> 00:31:35,840
Speaker 2: three games. They're averaging point one yards per play more

666
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 2: than they're giving up. And this is with Russell Wilson

667
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,880
Speaker 2: completing eighty r bombs every play. They're giving up six

668
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 2: point eight yards per plays. Defense is horrendous and now hurt.

669
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:46,959
Speaker 2: And one of the brightest parts of Miami this year

670
00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:49,600
Speaker 2: has been their offensive line. Their offensive line has been

671
00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:52,520
Speaker 2: so much better. World's better from last year. So if

672
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 2: it's Patrick wewef.

673
00:31:53,360 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 6: Time fits magicgicgic.

674
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,840
Speaker 2: We'll have time to throw. It's an awful Seattle secondary

675
00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,320
Speaker 2: due to injuries and other factors. Right now, I'm sure

676
00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson will get his Chris Carson. I'm assuming we'll play,

677
00:32:07,880 --> 00:32:11,320
Speaker 2: but he's banged up. But I have to take the

678
00:32:11,400 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 2: six and a half here against you know, and again

679
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:15,640
Speaker 2: if you fancies three now against the spread teams, if

680
00:32:15,640 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 2: you're in the trends, you'd be thirty eight twenty four

681
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 2: and one against the spread since two thousand and three.

682
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 2: The Sea Hawk's progression is coming, and I'm sure they'll win.

683
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:24,680
Speaker 2: I'm sure they'll win by one possession, like they do

684
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: in every single win. Ever, I'm sure they'll get a

685
00:32:26,760 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 2: fumble late. I'm sure they'll get a personal foul on

686
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,840
Speaker 2: a two point conversion. I'm sure the Dolphins will miss

687
00:32:32,880 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 2: four extra points. But I still like the Dolphins catching

688
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 2: anything over six. I mean, I can be in Miami magic.

689
00:32:39,960 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 5: I think that was a lot easier than being sure

690
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 5: of all those random things. Just say you're sure Russell

691
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 5: Wilson's gonna throw his seventh touchdown pass of the game.

692
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:49,840
Speaker 3: This is a game where I normally we would kind of.

693
00:32:49,800 --> 00:32:52,240
Speaker 5: Look at the under because you know, it's like Russell

694
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 5: Wilson can't possibly cheap this up. But now it's just

695
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 5: everything's kind of slipped over and I think, like you said,

696
00:32:58,640 --> 00:33:01,240
Speaker 5: the Dolphins can actually put up some points. The Seahawks

697
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 5: have given up three hundred and ninety four more passing

698
00:33:03,960 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 5: yards and Russell Wilson has thrown for They're nearly double

699
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:09,320
Speaker 5: the second place team in the league in air.

700
00:33:09,280 --> 00:33:10,560
Speaker 3: Yards allowed on defense.

701
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:14,400
Speaker 5: I mean, it is just an absolute This is like

702
00:33:14,440 --> 00:33:17,760
Speaker 5: worse than peak Falcons bad in terms of except they

703
00:33:17,800 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 5: win games. They're like they're like the bizarro version of

704
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,800
Speaker 5: the Falcons if like Matt Ryan ever, like took the

705
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:26,440
Speaker 5: next step consistently in like they overcame their bad defense,

706
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 5: and like the Seattle coach with that plays all the

707
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 5: cover three and is terrible actually won like that would

708
00:33:31,600 --> 00:33:34,400
Speaker 5: be the Falcons, but uh, you know it's the Seahawks.

709
00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 2: That's a good point. Yeah, I mean, look, Russe Wilson,

710
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 2: even if he keeps it up, he's still playing like

711
00:33:39,840 --> 00:33:42,120
Speaker 2: this and they're still barely winning. So I mean, if

712
00:33:42,160 --> 00:33:44,080
Speaker 2: he has a drop off, they could lose this game.

713
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean, Shattle, the first team in the

714
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:48,800
Speaker 2: NFL is shut up twelve on ore passing yards through three games.

715
00:33:49,080 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 2: That is a disgusting act.

716
00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, this is I literally I'm not even

717
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 5: joking with you. I had to create a new touchdown

718
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 5: model because Russell Wilson was just like fucking with the

719
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 5: way I did sample size, Like I had to like

720
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:07,920
Speaker 5: completely revamp everything that is it's just a ridiculous city.

721
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 5: Like I was for a second, like you know, I

722
00:34:10,040 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 5: figured the penalties were a factor, but I was kind

723
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,799
Speaker 5: of just thinking Russell Wilson is just the one that's

724
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:17,000
Speaker 5: responsible for the increase in scoring in the NFL. Like,

725
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 5: if you don't have a guy throwing for five touchdowns

726
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,680
Speaker 5: every game and the defense giving up like eight thousand yards,

727
00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 5: then maybe you don't get.

728
00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 3: As high as a score. So it should be an

729
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:25,359
Speaker 3: interesting one.

730
00:34:25,760 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 5: Probably the right time to face Seattle, to be honest,

731
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 5: I was a week earlier though Dallas.

732
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:32,319
Speaker 3: I felt like they really should have got that one done, But.

733
00:34:32,480 --> 00:34:34,360
Speaker 2: They covered that game nine. I don't have one hundred times.

734
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, it happens. We keep it pushing.

735
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:40,520
Speaker 7: I hope you're enjoying this great Action Network podcast. I

736
00:34:40,560 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 7: want to make sure you know about the Locked On

737
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,600
Speaker 7: podcast network locked On as a daily podcast on your

738
00:34:45,680 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 7: favorite team.

739
00:34:46,400 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You were locked

740
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 2: own of the Dallas marriage.

741
00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:52,439
Speaker 3: Everybody, so the Lockdown Lakers podcast Let's Go.

742
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 7: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

743
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,880
Speaker 7: know your team better than anyone and give you the

744
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,280
Speaker 7: inside scoop. So go to your podcast and search locked

745
00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:07,399
Speaker 7: On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked On podcast.

746
00:35:08,920 --> 00:35:12,439
Speaker 5: For the fourth pick in the week four Sunday six pack,

747
00:35:12,560 --> 00:35:17,240
Speaker 5: I'm going with the Detroit Lions at home dogs catching

748
00:35:17,480 --> 00:35:21,759
Speaker 5: for to the New Orleans Saints, and I could not

749
00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 5: have seen myself betting this early in the season. Generally,

750
00:35:26,040 --> 00:35:28,960
Speaker 5: the teams that I've been low on have worked out.

751
00:35:29,160 --> 00:35:32,840
Speaker 5: You know, I had Falcons win total under. I had

752
00:35:33,040 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 5: Broncos Jets. That's working great Coats. They're two and one.

753
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 5: They look pretty good. But for the most part, Lions

754
00:35:40,480 --> 00:35:43,040
Speaker 5: are another one. They got the win against Arizona, so

755
00:35:43,040 --> 00:35:44,600
Speaker 5: that killed me in the contest as well.

756
00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:47,280
Speaker 3: But I am I want.

757
00:35:47,080 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 5: To be ahead of this curve of fading the Saints

758
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:55,560
Speaker 5: and fading Drew Brees because he's not he doesn't look right,

759
00:35:55,640 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 5: even when he's putting up good numbers.

760
00:35:57,239 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 3: It's it's all coming with, you know, yards after the catch.

761
00:36:01,000 --> 00:36:02,719
Speaker 5: And he's just lucky to have not only one of

762
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 5: the best receivers in the league who's hurt right now,

763
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,600
Speaker 5: but also one of the best running backs that can

764
00:36:06,600 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 5: do exactly what you need to do so that you

765
00:36:09,800 --> 00:36:13,359
Speaker 5: can mask your decline. But this SAME's team. They've been

766
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 5: dominant or elite for pretty much the better part of

767
00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 5: the last half decade to decade, but they still have

768
00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:22,840
Speaker 5: these weird years mixed in where they'll go seven to

769
00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 5: nine inexplicably due to no like real reason other than

770
00:36:27,040 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 5: they had a down year. And I'm looking at this

771
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,319
Speaker 5: team and that kind of looks like that to me.

772
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:36,800
Speaker 5: I just don't see this team as a truly elite

773
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 5: team anymore. They're back down to the pack in my

774
00:36:39,000 --> 00:36:42,480
Speaker 5: power ratings. And then Lions are another team that you know,

775
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 5: I've mistakenly faded last week, I think you know.

776
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 3: But they're kind of this a very average.

777
00:36:48,600 --> 00:36:51,720
Speaker 5: Team themselves, especially once they have Gaday healthy and TJ.

778
00:36:51,760 --> 00:36:54,879
Speaker 5: Hockinson playing more Desmond to Frop practice and so they're

779
00:36:54,880 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 5: getting healthier. They had some terrible injury luck. I love

780
00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 5: getting the you know, more than a field here. I

781
00:37:00,800 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 5: just don't have the Saints Chris.

782
00:37:02,080 --> 00:37:04,400
Speaker 2: Rayvaughn driving the Matt Patricia bandwagon.

783
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 5: Hey, Hey, I've been I've been alright with the with

784
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,759
Speaker 5: the NFC UH North this year. I told you not

785
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 5: to bet the Falcons, man, I told you. I told

786
00:37:11,800 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 5: you that's the only thing I'm gonna take Stylis on

787
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:18,719
Speaker 5: from my twelve to four defeat. But yeah, hey, you

788
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:20,360
Speaker 5: gotta you gotta make the ugly bets.

789
00:37:20,640 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 3: Sometimes.

790
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,880
Speaker 5: The Giants have been killing me so thinking with it

791
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:25,799
Speaker 5: going with the Detroit Lions here, but I really don't

792
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:28,040
Speaker 5: think there's as much separation as this wine improbably. I

793
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,319
Speaker 5: don't think the Saints are seven points better UH on

794
00:37:30,360 --> 00:37:31,040
Speaker 5: a neutral field.

795
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:34,480
Speaker 2: Well, I didn't take that. Luckily, I didn't take the

796
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,160
Speaker 2: Falcons last week. I ended up not pulling the trip

797
00:37:37,200 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 2: because Julio was out, and then I was gonna look

798
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 2: for a live, good, live number, but that never came.

799
00:37:41,400 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 2: I don't disagree. I mean, I actually just put a

800
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:45,880
Speaker 2: bet in on this, and I have to adjust. I

801
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 2: don't think Michael Thomas is gonna play. If he plays,

802
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:50,799
Speaker 2: it's obviously important, but it looks like they're gonna be

803
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,799
Speaker 2: really cautious with him. And you know, Galla Day's back.

804
00:37:54,560 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 2: The Lions only one one guy not practice today, so

805
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 2: they're getting a lot healthier. And then the Saints have

806
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: been torched. Their secondary has been torched three weeks in

807
00:38:03,040 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 2: a row. Something just a little off with the defense too. Yeah,

808
00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 2: and Breeze is done, he's cooked. That Green Bay game

809
00:38:09,080 --> 00:38:11,120
Speaker 2: told me a lot about where that team is, So yeah,

810
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 2: I like the Lions as well. For my third pick

811
00:38:16,719 --> 00:38:20,440
Speaker 2: and the fifth pick of the Sunday six pack, I

812
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: am going with the Vegas Radors bet MGM right now,

813
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:30,160
Speaker 2: the Raiders three point underdogs. And by the way, the

814
00:38:30,200 --> 00:38:32,760
Speaker 2: team the other team that I mentioned, you know, fading

815
00:38:32,800 --> 00:38:34,600
Speaker 2: the three and zero against the spread teams in Week four,

816
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:36,680
Speaker 2: that would be fading Seattle and that would also be

817
00:38:36,680 --> 00:38:39,799
Speaker 2: fading Green Bay. We'll talk about that that Monday night

818
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:41,680
Speaker 2: game on a Sunday podcast. But I did. I took

819
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,719
Speaker 2: the Falcons post seven and a half, awful line. I

820
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:47,080
Speaker 2: expected to go to six and a half. But there's

821
00:38:47,120 --> 00:38:49,000
Speaker 2: also a bunch of three and oh teams that I'm

822
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,120
Speaker 2: looking to fade. You have Tennessee. There's just so much

823
00:38:52,160 --> 00:38:53,799
Speaker 2: uncertainy when that game is gonna be played. But they

824
00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:56,040
Speaker 2: have so many injuries on defense, they can't get pressure,

825
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 2: and now their offensive line is hurt. Going up against

826
00:38:58,680 --> 00:39:02,160
Speaker 2: that Pittsburgh defensive a really bad situation. For Tennessee. I

827
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 2: know Pittsburgh's three and oh as well. Then you have

828
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,400
Speaker 2: the Bears, who are just a complete fraud three and

829
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:09,360
Speaker 2: oh three and oh against three winless teams, all in

830
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 2: miraculous fashion, all by four points. The Titans are three

831
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:15,160
Speaker 2: and oh by wins by six points. They get out

832
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,120
Speaker 2: gained and outplayed every game and they win somehow. So

833
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,399
Speaker 2: you know, I do want to kind of face might

834
00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:22,680
Speaker 2: find a way to fade the Bears, but the line

835
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:25,239
Speaker 2: looks about right to me. Is the problem. Maybe I'll

836
00:39:25,239 --> 00:39:27,439
Speaker 2: look for a live spot on the Colts, or maybe

837
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:29,359
Speaker 2: I'll money line them with the Rams. But the team

838
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:31,960
Speaker 2: I do want to fade area is the Bills minus three.

839
00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:35,439
Speaker 2: They're three and zero at Vegas. Look the Josh Allen

840
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:37,560
Speaker 2: has looked great. I love the play call, and the

841
00:39:37,600 --> 00:39:40,240
Speaker 2: Bills are being much more aggressive. But they beat the Jets,

842
00:39:40,680 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 2: They beat the Dolphins early in the year and in

843
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 2: a really close game. And then you know, they beat

844
00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 2: the Rams in a game that they probably should have

845
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,879
Speaker 2: lost after being up twenty eight three and I had

846
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,320
Speaker 2: them minus two and a half and they got a

847
00:39:53,360 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 2: really question with the I call late on fourth and ten.

848
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 2: So their defense, you know, we know that they can

849
00:39:59,400 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 2: they can defend in the past, but the defense against

850
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,920
Speaker 2: the run, it's still really really bad twenty six the

851
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,360
Speaker 2: NFL and rush defense DVOA and their twenty fourth and

852
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:12,799
Speaker 2: adjusted lineyards twenty sixth and second level rank. These are

853
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 2: the things that we saw last year and now they're

854
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,239
Speaker 2: going to go up against you know, Jacobs and one

855
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,360
Speaker 2: of the better offensive lines in the NFL, even with

856
00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: some of the injuries. So I think the Raiders will

857
00:40:22,200 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 2: be able to protect card. They'll be able to move

858
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:26,760
Speaker 2: the ball on the ground. Number one. The most important

859
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:28,719
Speaker 2: thing is I make this line close to you know,

860
00:40:29,000 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 2: closer to a pick. It's I think I have the

861
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:34,799
Speaker 2: Bills minus point eight here. I just think that they're

862
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,520
Speaker 2: being completely overvalued after you know, a good three and

863
00:40:38,600 --> 00:40:40,480
Speaker 2: oh start, but two of the games, who cares and

864
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 2: last week they really should have lost, and blowing that

865
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 2: twenty eight three lead is pretty concerning to me. You

866
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:49,000
Speaker 2: might get some bad Josh Allen plays, which are you

867
00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 2: can always get here, but give me the Raiders catching

868
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,960
Speaker 2: three as a home dog here. I think their offensive

869
00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: line really controls this game. They control the clock and

870
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,480
Speaker 2: move the ball. Alan will make some plays against this

871
00:41:01,600 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: really bad Vegas defense that you know, really still struggles

872
00:41:05,680 --> 00:41:08,600
Speaker 2: in the secondary. But I'm I'm counting on making a

873
00:41:08,600 --> 00:41:10,879
Speaker 2: few mistakes too. I think the Raiders win this game.

874
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:13,200
Speaker 3: I'm not I'm not there.

875
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:16,480
Speaker 5: I actually took the Bills minus two and a half

876
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 5: because I figured that would get to three.

877
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: Listen.

878
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:22,200
Speaker 5: I actually think it's it's gonna be time to fade

879
00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 5: the Bills at some point pretty soon. I just don't

880
00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:26,680
Speaker 5: know if it's this week, because the Raiders have their

881
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,640
Speaker 5: own issues, Like Rugs looks like he might not be back.

882
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 5: Brian Edwards, their other receiver. He's also looks like they're

883
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:36,800
Speaker 5: not playing. Remember Buffalo and Buffalo, you know they're banged

884
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 5: up too. I think, is Mike a Hyge gonna play

885
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 5: this week? He's out right or is he?

886
00:41:41,040 --> 00:41:45,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, they haven't, they haven't confirmed, but he might not play.

887
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:46,640
Speaker 5: Right, So like that would that would be a blow

888
00:41:46,719 --> 00:41:48,680
Speaker 5: because we saw what happens when you can shut down

889
00:41:48,719 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 5: Waller and Buffalo has tended to be excellent against tight ends.

890
00:41:52,880 --> 00:41:55,960
Speaker 5: But you know, Sean McDermott Matthew Freeman actually pointed this

891
00:41:56,040 --> 00:41:59,160
Speaker 5: out in his Trends piece that usually these spots you

892
00:41:59,280 --> 00:42:02,440
Speaker 5: feel like you should team, but Sean McDermott actually thirteen

893
00:42:02,440 --> 00:42:04,520
Speaker 5: and seven against the spread going across the country in

894
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 5: these spots, I have the Bills as as.

895
00:42:08,120 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 3: A three and a half point favorite.

896
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,480
Speaker 5: This Raiders team on defense just doesn't have enough for

897
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 5: me with you know, they have the offensive line, but

898
00:42:15,920 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 5: it's still Derek Carr for me, and it's still a

899
00:42:18,680 --> 00:42:22,040
Speaker 5: banged up receiving core that can kind of let you

900
00:42:22,160 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 5: focus into much of their best guys. And we've even

901
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 5: seen that with Jacobs in the run game, they're actually

902
00:42:28,760 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 5: not ranking They're in the bottom I believe they're twenty

903
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:35,000
Speaker 5: seventh in success rate on early downs with the run game,

904
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,160
Speaker 5: which is really surprising for this Raiders team that you

905
00:42:37,200 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 5: think is going to be you know, superb in that

906
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:41,240
Speaker 5: in that facet.

907
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 3: So just kind of more red flags to me with

908
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:44,440
Speaker 3: the Raiders.

909
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,319
Speaker 5: But I also just you know, I was on the

910
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,240
Speaker 5: other side of the number at two and a half

911
00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,520
Speaker 5: if you know now, I wouldn't take it, you know,

912
00:42:51,600 --> 00:42:53,719
Speaker 5: way the three or three and a half, So it

913
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:54,839
Speaker 5: was more of a value play.

914
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:58,080
Speaker 3: But we'll see if that the injuries.

915
00:42:57,760 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 2: Are a great point. It's something it's something I'm monitoring

916
00:43:00,160 --> 00:43:04,440
Speaker 2: sure with the receivers, the secondary, the offensive line. You know,

917
00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,000
Speaker 2: if they don't have Edwards en Ruggs, I definitely don't

918
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:08,720
Speaker 2: love it as much as I did before.

919
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 5: We're not even finished with all six picks in the

920
00:43:13,239 --> 00:43:16,439
Speaker 5: six pack, and you and I have combined to take

921
00:43:16,520 --> 00:43:23,800
Speaker 5: three of the four bottom four defenses in Dvoa. The Dolphins, Raiders,

922
00:43:23,800 --> 00:43:25,919
Speaker 5: and Jaguars. Just just wanted to point that one out.

923
00:43:25,960 --> 00:43:28,280
Speaker 5: So this may not end well.

924
00:43:28,440 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 3: This may not end well. Keeping it going. And for

925
00:43:34,440 --> 00:43:37,360
Speaker 3: my final pick in the Week four Sunday six.

926
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:40,200
Speaker 5: Pack, I mean, this is I'm really out of character this.

927
00:43:40,239 --> 00:43:41,400
Speaker 5: I mean, well, I didn't bet it. I didn't bet

928
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 5: on Denver. But aside from that, I'm pretty out of

929
00:43:43,120 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 5: character going with another team that I rarely bet. Both

930
00:43:46,000 --> 00:43:47,600
Speaker 5: of us, I think we're pretty low in this team

931
00:43:47,640 --> 00:43:50,720
Speaker 5: coming into the season, but I'm looking at this number

932
00:43:51,000 --> 00:43:53,840
Speaker 5: and the more I think about it, the more it

933
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:56,359
Speaker 5: is kind of a little bit out of whack. And

934
00:43:56,360 --> 00:44:00,799
Speaker 5: that's the Eagles plus seven on Sunday Night Football.

935
00:44:00,840 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 2: Listen.

936
00:44:01,640 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 5: It was inexcusable, like how they played it in that

937
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:07,040
Speaker 5: Bengals game. You know, the Bengals got a lot of luck,

938
00:44:07,080 --> 00:44:10,160
Speaker 5: but there's no way you lead a team into that

939
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:12,879
Speaker 5: spot when you're the veteran team, you're the team that

940
00:44:13,200 --> 00:44:15,200
Speaker 5: won a Super Bowl, You're the team that needs to

941
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,319
Speaker 5: avoid the h and three start because you don't really

942
00:44:17,360 --> 00:44:19,960
Speaker 5: you don't come back from even if you know you tie,

943
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 5: like it's you're still win with So I mean, you're

944
00:44:23,080 --> 00:44:27,360
Speaker 5: really counting on like this NFC East being a complete

945
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 5: and total disaster, and it has been thus far.

946
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:32,360
Speaker 3: So maybe the Eagles have a shot either.

947
00:44:32,080 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 5: Way going to San fran No one gives them a shot.

948
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,120
Speaker 5: I think you mentioned it earlier in the pod, like

949
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 5: the Eagles won a game in primetime that no one

950
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:43,960
Speaker 5: gave them a shot in last year like this, and

951
00:44:44,040 --> 00:44:48,200
Speaker 5: the Niners have just exceeded all expectations without without Garoppolo,

952
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:52,360
Speaker 5: without half their team, And I made that mistake of

953
00:44:52,400 --> 00:44:54,960
Speaker 5: betting against them. And I'm still going back to the

954
00:44:55,000 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 5: well here because I have this number, you know, more

955
00:44:57,719 --> 00:44:59,920
Speaker 5: towards four and a half five in that dead zone,

956
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 5: they're getting seven.

957
00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:03,000
Speaker 3: I haven't even seen a seven, you know, above seven.

958
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,120
Speaker 3: At some books. The numbers just too high because of

959
00:45:05,160 --> 00:45:06,880
Speaker 3: the recency bias.

960
00:45:06,719 --> 00:45:10,240
Speaker 5: Of all that happened. Eagles have got had terrible turnoverlook

961
00:45:10,840 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 5: they're not. You know, Carson Wentz can't just throw like

962
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:16,200
Speaker 5: four interceptions every single game. You know, he's a solid

963
00:45:16,280 --> 00:45:18,479
Speaker 5: quarterback if you just take out some of those, I mean.

964
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 3: He can, you know. But like this is the Eagles

965
00:45:21,680 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 3: are getting closer.

966
00:45:22,440 --> 00:45:24,560
Speaker 5: You know, they lost, they lost Week one to the

967
00:45:24,600 --> 00:45:26,960
Speaker 5: football team, they get blown out week two, but they

968
00:45:27,000 --> 00:45:30,080
Speaker 5: tied last week. You know, naturally, next step in the

969
00:45:30,120 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 5: progression is at least the cover. We might not get

970
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 5: a win until they play another NFC East team, but

971
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:39,640
Speaker 5: I think they can cover this spot. And like the Niners, listen,

972
00:45:40,360 --> 00:45:41,640
Speaker 5: you know, I'll be the first to say it, Like

973
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:46,359
Speaker 5: had the Giants overrated, they are a complete mess without

974
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 5: sa Quon Barkley and Daniel Jones really hasn't taken a

975
00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:51,840
Speaker 5: step forward and protecting the football. And you know, the

976
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 5: Jets obviously have their issues. So the Niners looked impressive.

977
00:45:55,239 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 5: They got two wins on the other side of the country.

978
00:45:57,719 --> 00:46:00,440
Speaker 5: Now no one's gonna touch him going back with the

979
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,799
Speaker 5: Eagles going across country win with uh this is this

980
00:46:03,840 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 5: is a spot where the numbers out of whack. But

981
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 5: I also think the public is just gonna completely be

982
00:46:08,880 --> 00:46:09,319
Speaker 5: hands off.

983
00:46:09,360 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 3: So I love I love the value.

984
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got to look to see who's playing for

985
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:16,320
Speaker 2: all these teams. I mean, but Wentz has been that bad.

986
00:46:16,480 --> 00:46:18,759
Speaker 2: I mean, you can't even the offensive line has been

987
00:46:18,760 --> 00:46:20,320
Speaker 2: a mess. You can't even blame them. He's been the

988
00:46:20,360 --> 00:46:23,120
Speaker 2: worst quarterback in the NFL with a clean pocket. I Mean,

989
00:46:23,400 --> 00:46:25,120
Speaker 2: the craziest stat that came out this week is if

990
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:27,600
Speaker 2: Russell Wilson his next forty five passes he threw forty

991
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 2: five interceptions, he'd still have a higher quarterback rating than

992
00:46:30,040 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 2: Carson Wentz. I mean, it's bad. And then you say, Okay, Goddard,

993
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,640
Speaker 2: one of those two safety blankets of tight end is out,

994
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,160
Speaker 2: and his top two receivers this week might be what

995
00:46:41,520 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 2: Greg Ward and John high Tower. That's what it's looking like.

996
00:46:46,040 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 5: So high Tower's actually got some promises, you know. All right,

997
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:51,160
Speaker 5: here's the thing with the Eagles, like they might have

998
00:46:51,200 --> 00:46:54,080
Speaker 5: already hit rock bottom because number one, like it just

999
00:46:54,080 --> 00:46:55,960
Speaker 5: doesn't make sense in this league to play like that

1000
00:46:56,080 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 5: much to tight end. But number two they were playing

1001
00:46:58,680 --> 00:47:00,880
Speaker 5: j j Arthega Whiteside and so many of those spots

1002
00:47:00,880 --> 00:47:03,000
Speaker 5: where now like they've moved on from that. But Jeffrey

1003
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,719
Speaker 5: and Jackson are also Jackson didn't practice, Jeffrey did.

1004
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,440
Speaker 3: It's it's a shit show. But yeah, I just want

1005
00:47:08,480 --> 00:47:08,799
Speaker 3: to play well.

1006
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:10,800
Speaker 2: I think I'd rather have John hot than Jeffrey.

1007
00:47:11,120 --> 00:47:11,600
Speaker 3: I agree.

1008
00:47:11,600 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 2: I think the defense the Eagles are still good against

1009
00:47:14,680 --> 00:47:17,200
Speaker 2: the run, and your defensive line should compete up front,

1010
00:47:17,400 --> 00:47:19,840
Speaker 2: but it's kittle healthy. Covering tight ends is going to

1011
00:47:19,920 --> 00:47:22,200
Speaker 2: be a major issue for the Eagles. I don't mind it.

1012
00:47:22,200 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 2: If you can get seven or more. It's a great spot.

1013
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,879
Speaker 2: I just is can Wentz do anything right.

1014
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:31,319
Speaker 5: It's like the opposite of everything I stand for because

1015
00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 5: I hate the you know, these kind of teams. I've

1016
00:47:32,840 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 5: avoided the Falcons thus far, but it just to me,

1017
00:47:37,000 --> 00:47:38,680
Speaker 5: it just sets up in such a great spot because

1018
00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 5: the the forty nine Ers played two of the worst

1019
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 5: teams in football, and the Jets and Giants, and it

1020
00:47:42,520 --> 00:47:45,759
Speaker 5: just creates all these betting opportunities. Like you now you

1021
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:47,640
Speaker 5: can bet that you could get the Jets as a

1022
00:47:47,640 --> 00:47:50,080
Speaker 5: three point dog, not not even just like a one

1023
00:47:50,080 --> 00:47:53,120
Speaker 5: point dog, like they were a legitimate three point home

1024
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:54,720
Speaker 5: underdog to Brett Rippin.

1025
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:56,759
Speaker 3: Like I'll take that bet one hundred times out of

1026
00:47:56,760 --> 00:47:57,280
Speaker 3: one hundred.

1027
00:47:57,520 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 5: Now, a game that I have, you know, closer to

1028
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:03,839
Speaker 5: a different key number is available on the market well

1029
00:48:04,360 --> 00:48:08,479
Speaker 5: into Wednesday Thursday. So it's just created a great bunch

1030
00:48:08,520 --> 00:48:10,760
Speaker 5: of great betting opportunities with the Niners getting.

1031
00:48:10,560 --> 00:48:12,560
Speaker 3: These blowout wins. So I'm gonna I'm gonna try to

1032
00:48:12,560 --> 00:48:14,160
Speaker 3: take advantage of it. See how it goes.

1033
00:48:14,239 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 5: But that's the Sunday six pack for Week four, Stuck

1034
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 5: went with the New England Patriots plus seven against the

1035
00:48:22,880 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 5: Kansas City Chiefs, the Dolphins plus six and a half

1036
00:48:26,600 --> 00:48:32,799
Speaker 5: against the Seattle Seahawks, and Vegas Raiders at home, giving

1037
00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:34,400
Speaker 5: up three to the Buffalo Bills.

1038
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 3: I went with the.

1039
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 5: Jacksonville Jaguars at the Cincinnati Bengals getting three points, the

1040
00:48:41,360 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 5: Lions plus four at home against the Saints, and the

1041
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 5: Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football plus seven against the

1042
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:51,120
Speaker 5: forty nine Ers.

1043
00:48:52,520 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 8: The NFL season is upon us, and our friends at

1044
00:48:55,239 --> 00:48:58,880
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1056
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1060
00:49:45,400 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 8: And now back to the show.

1061
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:51,880
Speaker 5: Now let's get into our favorite total bet of the week.

1062
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:55,399
Speaker 5: So I did say I was not going to go

1063
00:49:55,440 --> 00:49:58,719
Speaker 5: too aggressively on unders, but I am betting an under

1064
00:49:58,840 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 5: or I'm picking one for this for this contest, and

1065
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:04,960
Speaker 5: there were two I was kind of torn between, and

1066
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:09,000
Speaker 5: there's also an over that I like, but I ended

1067
00:50:09,040 --> 00:50:14,200
Speaker 5: up going with Cardinals at Panthers under because you know,

1068
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,359
Speaker 5: this is at fifty two and a half at bet

1069
00:50:16,480 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 5: MGM fifty one and a half at a lot.

1070
00:50:18,680 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 3: Of other books.

1071
00:50:19,880 --> 00:50:23,160
Speaker 5: But you know, fifty one is a key number, and

1072
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 5: I think that this is too many points for a

1073
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:29,960
Speaker 5: Panthers team that, like the spread is close, and it

1074
00:50:30,000 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 5: could certainly be a close game, but if it is,

1075
00:50:33,400 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 5: I actually don't think it will be of the variety

1076
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:39,919
Speaker 5: of like shootout, you know, Panthers surprise everyone and score

1077
00:50:39,960 --> 00:50:42,520
Speaker 5: more points than we think. I think it'll be the

1078
00:50:42,560 --> 00:50:46,280
Speaker 5: Cardinals offense being a little shaky again, like they were,

1079
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:50,600
Speaker 5: you know, against Detroit, and the Cardinals really haven't had

1080
00:50:50,640 --> 00:50:53,120
Speaker 5: one of these high scoring games, and they've played you know,

1081
00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:55,600
Speaker 5: they played the bad football team.

1082
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:56,879
Speaker 3: It was a thirty fifteen game.

1083
00:50:56,920 --> 00:50:59,319
Speaker 5: They played the Niners and they got banged up twenty

1084
00:50:59,360 --> 00:51:01,640
Speaker 5: four to twenty and then they go under against the Lions.

1085
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,720
Speaker 5: So this is not even a team that's gotten gone

1086
00:51:03,719 --> 00:51:06,480
Speaker 5: over yet. I think they're still a little bit overrated

1087
00:51:06,480 --> 00:51:09,040
Speaker 5: in the market. Like last week in DFS, I wrote

1088
00:51:09,040 --> 00:51:11,360
Speaker 5: about how I was just I think you had to

1089
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:14,239
Speaker 5: go with Russell Wilson over over Kyra And that wasn't

1090
00:51:14,280 --> 00:51:17,120
Speaker 5: like hindsight bias, like I, you know, wait all it

1091
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 5: out and it's essentially that It's a total different situation

1092
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:24,280
Speaker 5: when the Cardinals, you know, are looking good in yards

1093
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:27,719
Speaker 5: per play or whatever metric with Kyler Murray who makes

1094
00:51:27,719 --> 00:51:31,919
Speaker 5: these spectacular plays on the ground, but it's still for

1095
00:51:31,960 --> 00:51:35,480
Speaker 5: his career a more or less average two below average

1096
00:51:35,640 --> 00:51:37,040
Speaker 5: passer in terms of efficiency.

1097
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,280
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, he'll take a lot of sacks.

1098
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:39,960
Speaker 3: He will.

1099
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:43,239
Speaker 5: He's right right around seven yards and under for his

1100
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:46,759
Speaker 5: career in yards per attempt. Christian Kirk don't know if

1101
00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 5: he's gonna go yet. That was his top downfield threat

1102
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:51,960
Speaker 5: at twenty yards per average depth of target. And then

1103
00:51:52,000 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 5: you're not gonna have Andy Isabella scored two long touchdowns

1104
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:54,919
Speaker 5: every week.

1105
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:57,960
Speaker 3: They're playing a guy who's well who probably.

1106
00:51:57,680 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 5: Shouldn't be out there as like a glorified tight end

1107
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:03,720
Speaker 5: in Larry Fitzgerald, when they're a team that's not supposed

1108
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:05,480
Speaker 5: to be playing tight end using tight ends at all.

1109
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,359
Speaker 3: This offense is just not as good as we think

1110
00:52:08,400 --> 00:52:08,680
Speaker 3: it is.

1111
00:52:09,120 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 5: The Panthers, they are kind of a I think they're

1112
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:14,319
Speaker 5: a smart, you know team that's going to get better,

1113
00:52:14,760 --> 00:52:16,760
Speaker 5: but they're going to struggle to finish drives as well.

1114
00:52:17,680 --> 00:52:19,880
Speaker 3: So you know, all of these kind of things.

1115
00:52:19,880 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 5: I think you know, and remember this is now now

1116
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:24,600
Speaker 5: that we're getting into these totals, everything's in the fifties.

1117
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 5: Like now we're starting to see some of these games

1118
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,040
Speaker 5: that really shouldn't be in the fifties getting a fifties

1119
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:30,960
Speaker 5: because I don't know, I've been getting burned on a

1120
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 5: lot of these mid range totals that I just thought

1121
00:52:32,680 --> 00:52:34,720
Speaker 5: were like a point too high. You know, the public

1122
00:52:34,719 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 5: thinks these teams are better than they are, But what's

1123
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:39,600
Speaker 5: really been happening is that's been sharped by the books

1124
00:52:39,960 --> 00:52:41,320
Speaker 5: with the penalties and whatnot.

1125
00:52:41,800 --> 00:52:44,480
Speaker 3: But now you start getting into the range where it's.

1126
00:52:44,400 --> 00:52:47,680
Speaker 5: Rare for an NFL game, you know, to with with

1127
00:52:48,200 --> 00:52:50,200
Speaker 5: two of the like two middling teams to get to

1128
00:52:50,239 --> 00:52:55,880
Speaker 5: that level. So like the under in Cardinals and Panthers

1129
00:52:55,960 --> 00:52:57,600
Speaker 5: down to fifty one.

1130
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't hate it. Talked about my hesitancy on

1131
00:53:01,320 --> 00:53:04,239
Speaker 2: unders and pulling back on totals, but the one team

1132
00:53:04,280 --> 00:53:06,560
Speaker 2: that's been great with unders still was the team I

1133
00:53:06,640 --> 00:53:10,360
Speaker 2: highlighted coming into the year for unders, the Los Angeles Chargers.

1134
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:13,439
Speaker 2: They are three to zero to the under on the year.

1135
00:53:14,040 --> 00:53:17,320
Speaker 2: They're playing a little faster than I thought that they would,

1136
00:53:18,200 --> 00:53:20,480
Speaker 2: but this will be justin Herbert's first road star and

1137
00:53:20,520 --> 00:53:24,760
Speaker 2: he's still showing some growing pains, and he's going against

1138
00:53:24,760 --> 00:53:27,439
Speaker 2: a defense, the Tampa defense that just continues to show

1139
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:31,080
Speaker 2: that it's legit. Todd Bowles's defense is legit. They can

1140
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:33,960
Speaker 2: get pressure, they will shut down the run, and they

1141
00:53:34,000 --> 00:53:36,120
Speaker 2: can cover backs out of the backfield, which is really

1142
00:53:36,160 --> 00:53:39,120
Speaker 2: important for the Charges on the other side. Look, Tampa

1143
00:53:39,160 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 2: blew out Denver last week. We all know Denver is

1144
00:53:41,960 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 2: a mess. And also the first play, like the first

1145
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,240
Speaker 2: drive of the game, Denver got a punt block inside

1146
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:49,960
Speaker 2: their five yard line and then Tampa Bay scored a touchdown.

1147
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,400
Speaker 2: Tampa Bay is still figuring some things out on offense.

1148
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:56,280
Speaker 2: I believe Godwin's out right, he's doubtful, looks.

1149
00:53:56,160 --> 00:53:57,680
Speaker 3: Like he's probably gonna miss.

1150
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:01,200
Speaker 2: So yeah, yeah, so. And that's important because the Chargers,

1151
00:54:01,200 --> 00:54:03,680
Speaker 2: in typical Chargers fashion, about a ton of injuries, especially

1152
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,239
Speaker 2: on the defensive side of the ball. Chris Harris is

1153
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 2: now on IR, I know Ingram's also on IR, but

1154
00:54:10,600 --> 00:54:14,000
Speaker 2: you know, this Chargers defense is still competent enough to

1155
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,920
Speaker 2: hang with a Tampa offense that I still think is

1156
00:54:16,920 --> 00:54:20,200
Speaker 2: not all there, especially without Godwin and the Tampa defense

1157
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:23,840
Speaker 2: is legit. I don't see Herbert doing much here. So

1158
00:54:24,280 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 2: at MGM right now, this totals are forty three and

1159
00:54:26,000 --> 00:54:27,520
Speaker 2: a half. I played some under forty four and a half.

1160
00:54:27,560 --> 00:54:30,799
Speaker 2: I'd play anything. Oh, I'd play under anything forty three

1161
00:54:31,280 --> 00:54:34,160
Speaker 2: or above. Sticking with the one reliable under team of

1162
00:54:34,200 --> 00:54:36,480
Speaker 2: the year so far, the team I loved the Unders

1163
00:54:36,520 --> 00:54:37,560
Speaker 2: coming in and the Chargers.

1164
00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,400
Speaker 5: Yeah, so I think Tampa Bay's right there. You know,

1165
00:54:40,440 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 5: you look up at Tom Brady and he's doing what

1166
00:54:43,600 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 5: he has to do to get the wins. It has

1167
00:54:46,600 --> 00:54:49,719
Speaker 5: not been spectacular, but you know, he's showing that he's

1168
00:54:49,719 --> 00:54:51,920
Speaker 5: not like he can do things once he gets his

1169
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 5: full compliment of weapons.

1170
00:54:53,280 --> 00:54:54,680
Speaker 3: I think the offense has enough.

1171
00:54:54,880 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 5: You know, they have enough depth at running back that

1172
00:54:56,920 --> 00:54:59,680
Speaker 5: they can handle when somebody like four net gets hurt

1173
00:54:59,800 --> 00:55:02,680
Speaker 5: and and eventually they'll get Gogwin and Evans healthy together.

1174
00:55:03,120 --> 00:55:04,239
Speaker 3: You know, I don't know when.

1175
00:55:04,480 --> 00:55:06,239
Speaker 5: Eventually Evans will catch a pass that is not a

1176
00:55:06,280 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 5: touchdown or an interception or you get targeted for an interception.

1177
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:14,080
Speaker 5: But until then, you know, Tampa Bay still very good

1178
00:55:14,160 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 5: on defense. I think people need to to kind of

1179
00:55:16,160 --> 00:55:18,680
Speaker 5: adjust for that. So I actually want to fade the

1180
00:55:18,760 --> 00:55:20,840
Speaker 5: Chargers in this spot. I think like we should be

1181
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:23,440
Speaker 5: able to worry about them. They're suffering from a ton

1182
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:26,520
Speaker 5: of injuries and you know, losing to that Panthers team

1183
00:55:26,600 --> 00:55:29,879
Speaker 5: last week. But instead of fading the Chargers, I don't

1184
00:55:29,920 --> 00:55:32,520
Speaker 5: like taking you know, minus sevens. I decided to just

1185
00:55:32,600 --> 00:55:34,279
Speaker 5: roll with the under in this game because I think

1186
00:55:34,320 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 5: there's a good chance that you know, the Bucks can

1187
00:55:36,840 --> 00:55:38,719
Speaker 5: dominate even if they put up some good, you know,

1188
00:55:38,920 --> 00:55:41,160
Speaker 5: offensive numbers that they're not gonna the Chargers aren't gonna

1189
00:55:41,160 --> 00:55:41,440
Speaker 5: do much.

1190
00:55:41,440 --> 00:55:42,640
Speaker 3: But I also think there's a really good chance that

1191
00:55:42,719 --> 00:55:45,480
Speaker 3: the Bucks have kind of a quiet day offensively as well.

1192
00:55:45,880 --> 00:55:48,560
Speaker 5: All Right, So for our favorite total, I went with

1193
00:55:48,920 --> 00:55:52,799
Speaker 5: Cardinals Panthers under fifty one and a half. Stuck went

1194
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:56,439
Speaker 5: with Chargers Bucks under forty three and a half, both

1195
00:55:56,440 --> 00:56:03,240
Speaker 5: of those at bet MGM, the official odds provider of

1196
00:56:03,600 --> 00:56:08,280
Speaker 5: the Action Network podcast. Up next, our favorite teaser bets

1197
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:08,880
Speaker 5: of the week.

1198
00:56:09,560 --> 00:56:13,000
Speaker 6: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1199
00:56:13,239 --> 00:56:16,280
Speaker 5: So if you're not familiar, sportsbooks give you an additional

1200
00:56:16,400 --> 00:56:20,640
Speaker 5: six points to tease teams up or down. So if

1201
00:56:20,640 --> 00:56:24,040
Speaker 5: you're betting on an eight point favorite, it becomes a

1202
00:56:24,120 --> 00:56:27,960
Speaker 5: two point favorite, and the same would apply to an underdog,

1203
00:56:28,160 --> 00:56:32,560
Speaker 5: an eight point underdog becomes a fourteen point underdog. So

1204
00:56:32,880 --> 00:56:36,160
Speaker 5: with that being said, stuck, where are you going for

1205
00:56:36,239 --> 00:56:38,680
Speaker 5: your top teaser play of this week?

1206
00:56:39,040 --> 00:56:41,399
Speaker 2: Yeah? I send it a million times on here that

1207
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:43,600
Speaker 2: you know, if you can tease through three and seven,

1208
00:56:44,080 --> 00:56:45,560
Speaker 2: you have an edge over the books as long as

1209
00:56:45,560 --> 00:56:49,120
Speaker 2: you can pay minus one twenty or lower, called Wong teasers.

1210
00:56:49,680 --> 00:56:51,360
Speaker 2: I've written a bunch of pieces on there. There's not

1211
00:56:51,400 --> 00:56:54,720
Speaker 2: a lot of options this week. I did initially tease

1212
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:57,040
Speaker 2: the Steelers from plus one and a half to plus

1213
00:56:57,080 --> 00:56:59,600
Speaker 2: seven and a half with the Raiders and plus two

1214
00:56:59,600 --> 00:57:01,560
Speaker 2: and a half the plus eight and a half. Don't

1215
00:57:01,719 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: there's no line on the Steelers game. We touched on

1216
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 2: it earlier, just from a math perspective, the Bears from

1217
00:57:07,320 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 2: two and a half to eight and a half, and

1218
00:57:09,640 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 2: the next closest thing I can get is the Raiders

1219
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 2: plus three up to plus nine. So I'll go with

1220
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 2: the Bears, even though I think the Colts win the game.

1221
00:57:18,840 --> 00:57:20,560
Speaker 2: We talked about it. I think their offensive line can

1222
00:57:20,600 --> 00:57:24,080
Speaker 2: neutralize the Bears front, and the Colts defense is playing

1223
00:57:24,120 --> 00:57:26,360
Speaker 2: really well, and I don't think Folks is any big

1224
00:57:26,440 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 2: upgrade going from two and a half to eight and

1225
00:57:28,160 --> 00:57:30,400
Speaker 2: a half. Do it every time, So I'll go Bears

1226
00:57:31,040 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: and Raiders.

1227
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:36,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is this is not the best week I

1228
00:57:36,200 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 5: think for you know, there's a couple of these huge

1229
00:57:38,480 --> 00:57:41,640
Speaker 5: favorites that I want no piece of the underdog. It's

1230
00:57:41,680 --> 00:57:43,280
Speaker 5: not wit enough in the year for that yet. So

1231
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:47,280
Speaker 5: I am gonna go with the Bucks down to one

1232
00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 5: from seven and Dolphins to twelve and a half, just

1233
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:54,080
Speaker 5: because I agree it's at six and a half at

1234
00:57:54,080 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 5: BENMGM right now, and I agree that the Seahawks don't

1235
00:57:58,800 --> 00:58:02,200
Speaker 5: expect them to be winning games by more than one possession,

1236
00:58:02,240 --> 00:58:02,720
Speaker 5: so it.

1237
00:58:02,640 --> 00:58:03,800
Speaker 3: Would get to twelve and a half.

1238
00:58:03,960 --> 00:58:06,800
Speaker 5: Not my favorite ever teaser, but that's what we're rolling

1239
00:58:06,840 --> 00:58:07,680
Speaker 5: with this week.

1240
00:58:07,960 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 2: So you're crossing seven and ten at least.

1241
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's not a total loss, so.

1242
00:58:12,600 --> 00:58:15,160
Speaker 2: Plus, I'm okay with teasing the Bears. I don't think

1243
00:58:15,160 --> 00:58:17,520
Speaker 2: Foles is a huge upgrade, but at least it's not

1244
00:58:17,920 --> 00:58:20,439
Speaker 2: Mitch Bortles anymore. You mean, I'll think I'll ever start

1245
00:58:20,480 --> 00:58:21,040
Speaker 2: a game again.

1246
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:23,080
Speaker 6: You've just been bortled.

1247
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:25,880
Speaker 5: I can't believe my Bears to win the NFC North

1248
00:58:26,240 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 5: like plus five fifty or whatever.

1249
00:58:27,560 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 3: It is not dead yet. I'm sure it will die

1250
00:58:30,360 --> 00:58:31,080
Speaker 3: in short order.

1251
00:58:31,280 --> 00:58:33,440
Speaker 5: And I do I do think this is the right

1252
00:58:33,480 --> 00:58:35,960
Speaker 5: time to fade the Bears in general.

1253
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 3: But I get the mass for the teaser.

1254
00:58:38,640 --> 00:58:41,280
Speaker 5: It is just two teams that like scare the crap

1255
00:58:41,280 --> 00:58:42,960
Speaker 5: out of me that the Colts and the Bears.

1256
00:58:43,200 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 3: You know, don't like betting on Rivers either, but that

1257
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:46,000
Speaker 3: does it.

1258
00:58:46,080 --> 00:58:50,560
Speaker 5: Stuck has the Bears and the Raiders in his teaser,

1259
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:53,360
Speaker 5: and I am going with the Dolphins and the Bucks.

1260
00:58:53,560 --> 00:58:57,600
Speaker 5: All right, now, let's get into our favorite money line

1261
00:58:57,680 --> 00:58:59,240
Speaker 5: underdog play of the week.

1262
00:59:02,200 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 6: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1263
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:10,120
Speaker 6: money line parlay.

1264
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:13,960
Speaker 5: Like I can't believe that that I'm going to take

1265
00:59:14,000 --> 00:59:18,320
Speaker 5: this team twice here, but the Jaguars. That makes it

1266
00:59:18,360 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 5: three times that I've bet them on three different things.

1267
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:22,080
Speaker 5: So I could go ow and three against the Jags,

1268
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:25,120
Speaker 5: but I'm taking them as my money line dog again.

1269
00:59:25,160 --> 00:59:27,200
Speaker 5: I just think this is a toss up game. They're

1270
00:59:27,240 --> 00:59:30,920
Speaker 5: getting three. I don't even in real quick Stuck, we

1271
00:59:31,000 --> 00:59:33,720
Speaker 5: have three weeks of data. You mentioned the penalties, everything

1272
00:59:33,720 --> 00:59:36,439
Speaker 5: else is kind of where it should be. I love

1273
00:59:36,480 --> 00:59:38,479
Speaker 5: the Jags on the money line at plus one forty.

1274
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:41,240
Speaker 5: I think they have probably a better shot at winning

1275
00:59:41,240 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 5: this game than the Bengals. I'm not going to favor

1276
00:59:43,200 --> 00:59:45,640
Speaker 5: them in my power ratings that they're about equal Bengal

1277
00:59:45,680 --> 00:59:48,280
Speaker 5: still at home, but the Jaguars right now have the

1278
00:59:48,320 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 5: more efficient quarterback. Looks like they're gonna get sharp back

1279
00:59:52,040 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 5: and this Bengals team has been lucky to even be

1280
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:58,400
Speaker 5: in some games. They played some you know teams going

1281
00:59:58,440 --> 01:00:00,840
Speaker 5: through with some rough patches on the other side as well.

1282
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 3: So just fading the Bengals.

1283
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:07,280
Speaker 5: Love my guy Joe Burrow, but I think the Jags

1284
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:09,360
Speaker 5: as a dog are in a good spot here, especially

1285
01:00:09,400 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 5: after they let the public down or I don't know

1286
01:00:12,720 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 5: if it was the public, but they kind of had

1287
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 5: a wet down in like a primetime spot.

1288
01:00:15,880 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 3: So I don't think many are going to touch them

1289
01:00:17,880 --> 01:00:18,240
Speaker 3: this week.

1290
01:00:19,040 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 2: For my money line underdog, I'm going with the lines

1291
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:26,280
Speaker 2: we talked about at Fade Breeze love It lines are

1292
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:29,320
Speaker 2: finally healthy. I think Detroit can easily get this win.

1293
01:00:30,080 --> 01:00:32,480
Speaker 3: I mean that's I would have picked them if you hadn't.

1294
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:33,800
Speaker 3: I love that.

1295
01:00:34,200 --> 01:00:35,800
Speaker 5: Let's get into the best of the rest, which are

1296
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:40,480
Speaker 5: the games that we did not cover in any other section,

1297
01:00:40,560 --> 01:00:45,479
Speaker 5: and then we'll close it with our Survivorpool pick of

1298
01:00:45,760 --> 01:00:49,880
Speaker 5: the week. All right, first up, Stuck, We're going to

1299
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 5: start with your Baltimore Ravens. I'm curious to your thoughts

1300
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 5: on this game. From just a overall kind of betting

1301
01:00:58,560 --> 01:01:01,280
Speaker 5: perspective and also a margin perspective.

1302
01:01:02,480 --> 01:01:06,280
Speaker 3: I think that the total is way too low.

1303
01:01:06,360 --> 01:01:08,120
Speaker 5: I think it was an overreaction. It got all the

1304
01:01:08,120 --> 01:01:10,760
Speaker 5: way down to forty five. I bet it there. It

1305
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:14,160
Speaker 5: set forty six and a half at that MGM. But listen,

1306
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:16,840
Speaker 5: I think the Chiefs just had a They have what

1307
01:01:16,920 --> 01:01:19,040
Speaker 5: it takes to slow the Ravens down and make them

1308
01:01:19,080 --> 01:01:20,840
Speaker 5: play a way that they don't want to play, and

1309
01:01:20,880 --> 01:01:21,160
Speaker 5: they have.

1310
01:01:21,120 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 3: The coaching staff to execute it and the quarterback that

1311
01:01:23,240 --> 01:01:24,560
Speaker 3: can make it easier to do that.

1312
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:27,720
Speaker 5: On the other side, the Washington football team has none

1313
01:01:27,760 --> 01:01:30,120
Speaker 5: of these things. I feel like people are getting are

1314
01:01:30,160 --> 01:01:32,440
Speaker 5: too well on Jackson and Fantasy now and like everyone

1315
01:01:32,600 --> 01:01:33,280
Speaker 5: like every like.

1316
01:01:33,360 --> 01:01:35,600
Speaker 3: The sky is falling. Tell me about this game.

1317
01:01:37,040 --> 01:01:41,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean last year the Ravens had won fifteen

1318
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:46,400
Speaker 2: regular season games in a row, and it just just

1319
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:48,800
Speaker 2: speaks to the overreaction in the NFL. The last game

1320
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:51,720
Speaker 2: that they lost. If you go back to last year

1321
01:01:51,760 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 2: at home, they got demolished by the Browns. Demolished, I

1322
01:01:57,120 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 2: mean like demolished the Browns around for like three hundred

1323
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:03,320
Speaker 2: yards and one forty to twenty five. And it was

1324
01:02:03,840 --> 01:02:07,600
Speaker 2: that final score was misleading and everything was all right.

1325
01:02:08,040 --> 01:02:10,600
Speaker 2: Some days you have off weeks, some days there's bad mismatches.

1326
01:02:11,320 --> 01:02:15,080
Speaker 2: But yeah, this what this line is a tad high.

1327
01:02:15,160 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 2: But again and the Ravens are, you know, on a

1328
01:02:17,440 --> 01:02:20,200
Speaker 2: short week, but they're just going up the road. What

1329
01:02:20,600 --> 01:02:23,600
Speaker 2: you know. The interesting matchup in this game is the

1330
01:02:23,680 --> 01:02:27,280
Speaker 2: Ravens offensive line hasn't been great yet, they're still trying

1331
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:29,360
Speaker 2: to replace Yanda, and they're going up against a really

1332
01:02:29,400 --> 01:02:32,400
Speaker 2: good defensive line. So how much can that defensive line

1333
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:35,800
Speaker 2: neutralize the Ravens rushing attack and then get to Jackson.

1334
01:02:36,760 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 2: What what Baltimore is gonna do is they'll still find

1335
01:02:40,400 --> 01:02:43,880
Speaker 2: some places to run. They're gonna have some opportunities down

1336
01:02:43,880 --> 01:02:47,240
Speaker 2: the field to hit huge plays. So the Redsens are

1337
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:49,080
Speaker 2: gonna have to come up. They're gonna play aggressive, and

1338
01:02:49,160 --> 01:02:52,640
Speaker 2: they don't have the corners. Even against the Chiefs, who

1339
01:02:52,680 --> 01:02:55,479
Speaker 2: have a better defense in the back than the Ravens.

1340
01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:58,360
Speaker 2: The Ravens still had two or three wide open throws

1341
01:02:58,400 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 2: that Jackson didn't make. Jack is gonna have some like

1342
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:05,360
Speaker 2: to down the seam to Andrews. He's gonna have to Brown.

1343
01:03:05,400 --> 01:03:08,160
Speaker 2: He's gonna have a couple of deep throws that'll decide

1344
01:03:08,200 --> 01:03:10,560
Speaker 2: to cover and the total probably if he hits them.

1345
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:12,920
Speaker 2: Because on the other side of the ball, the Ravens

1346
01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:14,520
Speaker 2: are gonna do it they need I hope they don't

1347
01:03:14,520 --> 01:03:16,720
Speaker 2: do it. They've played the Chiefs again, but they're gonna blitz.

1348
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:19,800
Speaker 2: And when you blitz doesn't work against Mahomes, but it

1349
01:03:19,840 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 2: can really work against Haskins and throw them off his game.

1350
01:03:23,120 --> 01:03:25,640
Speaker 2: The Redskins don't have a very good offensive line, the

1351
01:03:25,760 --> 01:03:28,320
Speaker 2: Ravens can match up on the outside, and Haskins is

1352
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:30,600
Speaker 2: obviously not Mahomes. So I don't think the Redskins have

1353
01:03:30,880 --> 01:03:33,760
Speaker 2: much success at all on the offensive side of the

1354
01:03:33,800 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 2: ball against what will be an angry Ravens defense. The

1355
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:39,760
Speaker 2: total and the side will come down to Lamar Jackson

1356
01:03:40,160 --> 01:03:42,520
Speaker 2: a couple wide open shots down the field. I tend

1357
01:03:42,520 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 2: to think that I'll have a much better game this week.

1358
01:03:44,680 --> 01:03:46,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, And that's the thing though, It's like that's why

1359
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:48,880
Speaker 5: I took the total is because no one, no one

1360
01:03:48,920 --> 01:03:52,440
Speaker 5: would even be qualifying, like oh, Lamar Jackson will have

1361
01:03:52,480 --> 01:03:53,880
Speaker 5: a bad game against one of I mean, a big

1362
01:03:53,920 --> 01:03:55,720
Speaker 5: game against one of the worst teams in the National

1363
01:03:55,760 --> 01:03:58,880
Speaker 5: Football League. It's just how we overreact and how some

1364
01:03:58,920 --> 01:04:02,240
Speaker 5: people for the NFL, there are a lot of people

1365
01:04:02,280 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 5: out there that are waiting until there's like three four

1366
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:07,280
Speaker 5: weeks of data and they're not really using any or

1367
01:04:07,320 --> 01:04:09,360
Speaker 5: they don't you know, know how to use any data

1368
01:04:09,400 --> 01:04:12,080
Speaker 5: before before that. A lot of times you get one

1369
01:04:12,120 --> 01:04:14,200
Speaker 5: game that happens in Week three and it happens to

1370
01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:17,080
Speaker 5: be a terrible offensive game and everyone's freaking out. But

1371
01:04:17,480 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 5: even these this football team, I mean, they can create

1372
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 5: opportunities for the for the opponent just with their sloppy play.

1373
01:04:24,960 --> 01:04:26,520
Speaker 3: I think they lead the league in fumbles.

1374
01:04:26,880 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 5: If you can get it still at forty five, doubt it,

1375
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:32,160
Speaker 5: but I think it's worth, you know, taking that over

1376
01:04:32,240 --> 01:04:35,240
Speaker 5: at that spot. I actually had it, you know, above

1377
01:04:36,120 --> 01:04:39,080
Speaker 5: forty eight, so I was four points off, So a

1378
01:04:39,160 --> 01:04:42,040
Speaker 5: rare spot where I was just completely off from the

1379
01:04:42,080 --> 01:04:42,680
Speaker 5: market stuck.

1380
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:44,120
Speaker 3: You have it at forty seven and a half.

1381
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:47,640
Speaker 5: All right, up, Next we have another game with pretty

1382
01:04:47,720 --> 01:04:49,680
Speaker 5: much an identical spread.

1383
01:04:50,280 --> 01:04:52,160
Speaker 3: The Rams at home.

1384
01:04:52,560 --> 01:04:56,280
Speaker 5: Thirteen point favorites against the New York Giants who could

1385
01:04:56,280 --> 01:05:01,000
Speaker 5: not handle Kyle Shanahan and Nick Moowens at home. Now

1386
01:05:01,040 --> 01:05:01,760
Speaker 5: they're going.

1387
01:05:01,600 --> 01:05:02,760
Speaker 3: Across the country.

1388
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:05,080
Speaker 5: A part of me says, this is probably the right

1389
01:05:05,120 --> 01:05:07,520
Speaker 5: time to bet the Giants. A part of me says,

1390
01:05:09,040 --> 01:05:13,600
Speaker 5: I mean this team is just a mess, and it's like,

1391
01:05:13,680 --> 01:05:17,080
Speaker 5: even when they play well, they can't necessarily put out

1392
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 5: the cover because you know, the Boston and Daniel Jones

1393
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 5: hands and he's just turning it over way too much.

1394
01:05:22,880 --> 01:05:25,240
Speaker 6: Let's hear it for Danny Dimes.

1395
01:05:25,560 --> 01:05:26,560
Speaker 3: But what do you think of this one?

1396
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:30,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, the line is a tad too high, But do

1397
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,800
Speaker 2: I want to bet this Giants dumpster fire against a

1398
01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:37,920
Speaker 2: Rams offense that's really rolling? I mean their offense is

1399
01:05:38,040 --> 01:05:40,120
Speaker 2: McVay has his offense clicking right now, and now they're

1400
01:05:40,120 --> 01:05:42,120
Speaker 2: going to get to go against the Giants defense that

1401
01:05:42,280 --> 01:05:46,320
Speaker 2: can't get pressure and as already a bad secondary now

1402
01:05:46,360 --> 01:05:49,360
Speaker 2: with three or four guys on the injury report mess,

1403
01:05:49,400 --> 01:05:51,680
Speaker 2: I don't see how the Giants really slow down the Rams.

1404
01:05:52,080 --> 01:05:53,960
Speaker 2: The Giants could cover might come down to a back

1405
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:57,040
Speaker 2: door because the line's too high. I can't bet the Rams.

1406
01:05:57,040 --> 01:05:58,680
Speaker 2: They're a good money line. Parlay a piece if you

1407
01:05:58,720 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 2: want to get something down. Teaser alert, survivor, pick great survivor, pick,

1408
01:06:03,360 --> 01:06:05,160
Speaker 2: but stay away from me from the side.

1409
01:06:05,640 --> 01:06:11,080
Speaker 5: Next, we have the Cleveland Browns going to Dallas to

1410
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:16,520
Speaker 5: face the Dallas Cowboys. You line the Cowboys favored by

1411
01:06:16,600 --> 01:06:19,520
Speaker 5: four and a half. The total fifty five and a half.

1412
01:06:20,160 --> 01:06:22,840
Speaker 5: And this is when I mentioned earlier I was kind

1413
01:06:22,880 --> 01:06:24,400
Speaker 5: of torn between a couple of games. It was that

1414
01:06:24,560 --> 01:06:27,480
Speaker 5: Ravens over. I went with the Panthers cards under, but

1415
01:06:27,960 --> 01:06:32,640
Speaker 5: nearly took the Cowboys Browns under. I just look at

1416
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 5: this game and I see a couple of pass to

1417
01:06:35,200 --> 01:06:37,520
Speaker 5: the under. First of all, it's at fifty six and

1418
01:06:37,560 --> 01:06:39,600
Speaker 5: a half at some books, currently fifty five and a

1419
01:06:39,640 --> 01:06:43,000
Speaker 5: half at bet MGM, the official adds provider of the podcast.

1420
01:06:43,080 --> 01:06:46,320
Speaker 3: But you know, fifty six is just that.

1421
01:06:46,560 --> 01:06:49,320
Speaker 5: That's like a total for like a Russell Wilson dat

1422
01:06:49,400 --> 01:06:52,800
Speaker 5: Prescott total. That's not a Baker Mayfield Dak Prescott total.

1423
01:06:52,920 --> 01:06:55,720
Speaker 5: You look at the Cowboys, Dave, They're they're number They're

1424
01:06:55,760 --> 01:06:57,840
Speaker 5: way high in pace. I believe they're number one in

1425
01:06:57,840 --> 01:07:02,640
Speaker 5: almost every category except one, which is with them leading

1426
01:07:02,680 --> 01:07:03,440
Speaker 5: in games.

1427
01:07:03,160 --> 01:07:04,280
Speaker 3: Because they haven't been leading.

1428
01:07:04,320 --> 01:07:07,640
Speaker 5: They've spent almost every minute of every game, you know,

1429
01:07:07,760 --> 01:07:10,680
Speaker 5: tied or trailing. This is so we really haven't gotten

1430
01:07:10,720 --> 01:07:13,439
Speaker 5: to see them outside of these frame you know, these

1431
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:16,680
Speaker 5: crazy game scripts. We saw that they could play a

1432
01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 5: lower scoring game in Week one against the Rams. And

1433
01:07:19,640 --> 01:07:22,480
Speaker 5: on the other side of that, you have the Browns

1434
01:07:22,520 --> 01:07:26,000
Speaker 5: with you know Stefanski. They ran at the highest rate

1435
01:07:26,040 --> 01:07:27,520
Speaker 5: and we're one of the highest rates in the league.

1436
01:07:27,560 --> 01:07:30,400
Speaker 5: Last year with Minnesota, they have you know, Nick Chubb

1437
01:07:30,440 --> 01:07:31,840
Speaker 5: still there, and I think they'll want to kind of

1438
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:35,160
Speaker 5: ground the ball a little bit, slow down that Cowboys offense,

1439
01:07:36,320 --> 01:07:38,080
Speaker 5: which is just you know, it doesn't really matter what

1440
01:07:38,120 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 5: they're throwing to now.

1441
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 3: So I like the under in this game. I just

1442
01:07:43,240 --> 01:07:44,240
Speaker 3: think it's way too high.

1443
01:07:44,280 --> 01:07:47,080
Speaker 5: After the Cowboys had like these like you couldn't ask

1444
01:07:47,120 --> 01:07:51,760
Speaker 5: for better shootout game scenarios and playing the Falcons terrible defense,

1445
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 5: who's of course.

1446
01:07:52,680 --> 01:07:54,360
Speaker 3: Going to build a huge lead on you and then

1447
01:07:54,640 --> 01:07:56,040
Speaker 3: blow give it all up. And then the.

1448
01:07:56,520 --> 01:07:59,160
Speaker 5: Seahawks, who are going to build a big lead or

1449
01:07:59,200 --> 01:08:00,720
Speaker 5: just score a lot of points and then give them

1450
01:08:00,800 --> 01:08:01,160
Speaker 5: right back.

1451
01:08:02,320 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it's the Cowboys are zero and three

1452
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 2: against the spread, but they could be and they one

1453
01:08:08,160 --> 01:08:09,560
Speaker 2: and two overall, they could be three and oh, they

1454
01:08:09,600 --> 01:08:11,120
Speaker 2: could be two to one, they could be one and two.

1455
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:13,360
Speaker 2: All their games are really close and kind of crazy,

1456
01:08:13,400 --> 01:08:14,480
Speaker 2: and it's hard for me to get a read on

1457
01:08:14,520 --> 01:08:17,000
Speaker 2: the Browns. And they get blown out at Baltimore, they

1458
01:08:17,040 --> 01:08:20,920
Speaker 2: bounce back, they beat they pretty much dominate Cincinnati, who

1459
01:08:21,040 --> 01:08:24,919
Speaker 2: gets in the back door, and then they play Washington

1460
01:08:24,920 --> 01:08:27,720
Speaker 2: the next week. Don't be misled by that score. They

1461
01:08:27,920 --> 01:08:31,000
Speaker 2: outscored Washington seventy to nothing in the fourth quarter. Yards

1462
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:34,439
Speaker 2: per play yards all equal. Paskings just had three picks.

1463
01:08:34,439 --> 01:08:37,280
Speaker 2: Mayfield didn't have any if you remove turnovers. This year,

1464
01:08:37,560 --> 01:08:40,519
Speaker 2: the Cleveland has the worst performing defense as far as

1465
01:08:40,520 --> 01:08:42,280
Speaker 2: points per driving in the NFL. But now they get

1466
01:08:42,360 --> 01:08:45,479
Speaker 2: Vernon back, to get Greedy Williams back, presumably, how much

1467
01:08:45,520 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 2: does that help. We'll see, because they are going against

1468
01:08:47,840 --> 01:08:52,200
Speaker 2: a really good Dallas offense. There's a lot of injuries

1469
01:08:52,200 --> 01:08:54,840
Speaker 2: on Dallas to keep your eye on. I think it's

1470
01:08:54,840 --> 01:08:57,559
Speaker 2: gonna be a good litmus test for the Browns. If

1471
01:08:57,600 --> 01:09:00,639
Speaker 2: I had to bet it, I would probably buy low

1472
01:09:01,040 --> 01:09:04,760
Speaker 2: on the Cowboys here because it's still not I still

1473
01:09:04,800 --> 01:09:06,680
Speaker 2: think that the Browns are working out some things. But

1474
01:09:06,760 --> 01:09:08,559
Speaker 2: I make the line right around four and a half,

1475
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 2: So it's a pass for me.

1476
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:13,280
Speaker 3: And last up, we have Vikings Texans or maybe we

1477
01:09:13,320 --> 01:09:14,960
Speaker 3: don't have it, who knows.

1478
01:09:15,320 --> 01:09:21,960
Speaker 5: UH situation unfolding with uh the Tennessee Titans players testing pots,

1479
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:25,519
Speaker 5: some players testing positive for COVID, and of course they

1480
01:09:25,560 --> 01:09:27,720
Speaker 5: played the Vikings last week.

1481
01:09:27,800 --> 01:09:30,120
Speaker 3: So this one is kind of up in the air.

1482
01:09:30,160 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 5: But assuming it does take place at some point, what

1483
01:09:34,920 --> 01:09:38,720
Speaker 5: are the kind of intangible impacts on this game and

1484
01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:40,280
Speaker 5: what are your thoughts on the game in general?

1485
01:09:40,600 --> 01:09:42,920
Speaker 6: Football is getting weird.

1486
01:09:43,439 --> 01:09:45,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, probably passed for me. I mean, I think that

1487
01:09:45,320 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 2: there's some value in the Vikings at now four and

1488
01:09:47,040 --> 01:09:50,000
Speaker 2: a half, but there's so much uncertainty with they shut

1489
01:09:50,040 --> 01:09:51,600
Speaker 2: down things for a couple of days. There's gonna be

1490
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 2: lack of prep, lack of practice. These things we don't see.

1491
01:09:55,040 --> 01:09:57,240
Speaker 2: I did mention that, you know, these two teams are

1492
01:09:57,360 --> 01:10:00,400
Speaker 2: slower in neutral situations. Minnesota wants to run the ball,

1493
01:10:00,439 --> 01:10:02,000
Speaker 2: and if you think this game is going to be close,

1494
01:10:02,640 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 2: you know, you might want to look at the under

1495
01:10:04,400 --> 01:10:07,280
Speaker 2: Although both secondaries and both defenses have been pretty poor,

1496
01:10:07,720 --> 01:10:09,479
Speaker 2: you know, but the dead. Part of me also wants

1497
01:10:09,520 --> 01:10:12,080
Speaker 2: to bet on Houston and buy low here. It's like,

1498
01:10:12,320 --> 01:10:14,240
Speaker 2: can I really judge how bad or good they've been.

1499
01:10:14,240 --> 01:10:16,720
Speaker 2: They've played the Ravens, the Chiefs, and then that the Steelers.

1500
01:10:17,040 --> 01:10:20,160
Speaker 2: I mean, that's vicious. But the Vikings secondary will continue

1501
01:10:20,200 --> 01:10:22,559
Speaker 2: to get better, you know in Ghakway, and they'll get

1502
01:10:22,560 --> 01:10:25,840
Speaker 2: some pieces up in the front. Jefferson looks like he's

1503
01:10:26,000 --> 01:10:28,400
Speaker 2: he's going to be a really good rookie and second

1504
01:10:28,400 --> 01:10:31,200
Speaker 2: piece at receiver, which will help. So you know, this

1505
01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:33,880
Speaker 2: is just probably a stay away from me, a lot

1506
01:10:33,880 --> 01:10:34,720
Speaker 2: of uncertainty.

1507
01:10:35,280 --> 01:10:38,519
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Vikings are. They're already up to nineteenth in

1508
01:10:38,600 --> 01:10:40,040
Speaker 5: Dvoa on defense.

1509
01:10:39,680 --> 01:10:40,479
Speaker 3: Which is not terrible.

1510
01:10:40,520 --> 01:10:42,639
Speaker 5: I mean it's not great obviously, but you know, part

1511
01:10:42,680 --> 01:10:44,400
Speaker 5: of it is you're playing a Packers team that I

1512
01:10:44,439 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 5: think is better on offense than most of us thought,

1513
01:10:49,360 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 5: especially me, thought Aaron Rodgers really wasn't going to be

1514
01:10:52,240 --> 01:10:53,000
Speaker 5: able to get it done.

1515
01:10:53,080 --> 01:10:54,519
Speaker 3: But he he's.

1516
01:10:54,360 --> 01:10:57,240
Speaker 5: Really kind of stepped his game up and now you're

1517
01:10:57,280 --> 01:11:00,200
Speaker 5: starting to see the difference with him. So, yeah, the

1518
01:11:00,280 --> 01:11:01,960
Speaker 5: Vikings are a team is just tough to anytime, any

1519
01:11:01,960 --> 01:11:03,920
Speaker 5: time a team plays the Titans. Also, it's just tough

1520
01:11:03,960 --> 01:11:06,559
Speaker 5: to get a read on them. Uh so, yeah, this

1521
01:11:06,640 --> 01:11:08,639
Speaker 5: is a stay away game. I would bet the Vikings

1522
01:11:08,640 --> 01:11:10,479
Speaker 5: though if I was if I had to pick a side,

1523
01:11:10,760 --> 01:11:12,519
Speaker 5: as much as I want to buy with one Houston,

1524
01:11:13,040 --> 01:11:17,679
Speaker 5: there's still a painfully, painfully average team and the line

1525
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:20,479
Speaker 5: is up to like five at some books, so it

1526
01:11:20,560 --> 01:11:23,360
Speaker 5: might even get to six depending on what happens. I'm

1527
01:11:23,360 --> 01:11:25,439
Speaker 5: not sure how the you know, all these events will

1528
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:26,839
Speaker 5: impact it, but yeah.

1529
01:11:26,680 --> 01:11:29,760
Speaker 3: That's a it's it's a it's a weird one. It's

1530
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:30,519
Speaker 3: been a weird week.

1531
01:11:30,840 --> 01:11:34,720
Speaker 5: Hopefully everything goes as planning, we don't get any more

1532
01:11:35,080 --> 01:11:36,479
Speaker 5: positive tests or anything like that.

1533
01:11:36,600 --> 01:11:39,120
Speaker 3: Let's get out of here with do our survivor pick one?

1534
01:11:39,240 --> 01:11:46,680
Speaker 6: Pick one chance to advance, survivor.

1535
01:11:47,640 --> 01:11:47,880
Speaker 2: Stuck.

1536
01:11:47,880 --> 01:11:48,840
Speaker 3: Who you're going with this week?

1537
01:11:49,080 --> 01:11:51,000
Speaker 2: I've already mentioned it easy one Rams.

1538
01:11:51,560 --> 01:11:53,600
Speaker 5: Uh yeah, I'm gonna go with the Rams too, just

1539
01:11:53,600 --> 01:11:57,000
Speaker 5: because they play in that tough division, not really a

1540
01:11:57,000 --> 01:12:00,240
Speaker 5: situation where going to want to be on them in

1541
01:12:00,280 --> 01:12:01,880
Speaker 5: the year, So they're one of those teams I'm fine

1542
01:12:01,880 --> 01:12:02,559
Speaker 5: with burning early.

1543
01:12:02,600 --> 01:12:03,920
Speaker 3: So yeah, going with the Rams here.

1544
01:12:04,080 --> 01:12:06,760
Speaker 5: And that does it for the Week four edition of

1545
01:12:06,800 --> 01:12:10,040
Speaker 5: the Action Network NFL Podcast. I'm your host Chris raybon

1546
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:13,200
Speaker 5: and it was a pleasure to do this with you, Stucky.

1547
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:16,320
Speaker 5: You can find Stuck on the Action Network app and

1548
01:12:16,400 --> 01:12:19,639
Speaker 5: Twitter at Stucky too, and you can find me at

1549
01:12:19,800 --> 01:12:23,800
Speaker 5: Chris Raybond. Be sure to check out the Action Network

1550
01:12:23,960 --> 01:12:26,479
Speaker 5: app to track your bets until next week.

1551
01:12:26,800 --> 01:12:27,840
Speaker 3: Let's get this money.

1552
01:12:28,240 --> 01:12:45,799
Speaker 2: Let's go. We're finished talking.