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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Day Baqut podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Friday, the twenty ninth of November

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Speaker 1: in London. I'm Caroline Hepka and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Coming up today. Macro traders face their

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Speaker 2: worst year since the pandemic, but things could be looking

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Speaker 2: up for twenty twenty five budget demands.

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Speaker 1: Francis far Right wants more changes to next year's spending plans.

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Speaker 2: Plus from City Trader to Cattle Trader, the story of

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Speaker 2: the former banking executive who's betting he can persuade farmers

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Speaker 2: to swap livestock auctions for his online trading platform.

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Speaker 1: Let's start with a roundup of our top stories.

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Speaker 2: Wall Street's macro traders are heading for their worst years

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Speaker 2: since the pandemic. The news comes as bankers contend with

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Speaker 2: tighter margins and economic headwinds. Bloomberg's team Atabio has.

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Speaker 3: More invested confidence in making big macro calls. This year

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Speaker 3: has dwindled as data surprises have whiplashed bets on Central

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Speaker 3: Bank interest rate cuts, a too close to call us election,

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Speaker 3: and the shock unwind of a once popular yen funded

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Speaker 3: carry trade also rattled markets. As a result, some two

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Speaker 3: hundred and fifty firms, including Goldman, Sachs and JP morgan

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Speaker 3: A forecast to make seventeen percent less this year from

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Speaker 3: trading G ten rates and nine percent less for currencies.

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Speaker 3: That's according to analytics company Coalition Greenwich. The bright Spot

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Speaker 3: currency trading is expected to pick up in twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: five and twenty twenty six in London twa at a

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Speaker 3: Bayo Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: In France, the National Rally Party is pushing for further

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Speaker 1: changes to the twenty twenty five budget bill. After the

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Speaker 1: government conceded on key plans to raise taxes on electricity.

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Speaker 1: Now the group's president, Jordan Bardella is calling for more adjustments,

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Speaker 1: including abandoning policies on reducing drug reimbursements, no new or

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Speaker 1: higher tax is and indexing pensions to inflation on x

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Speaker 1: Bardella gave Michelle Barnier quote a few days to respond

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Speaker 1: to his demands. Fellow National Rally politician Marine la Penn

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Speaker 1: told the newspaper Lamon the Prime Minister has until Monday.

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Speaker 1: Ben Bennett's, the Asia head of Investment strash at LNG

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Speaker 1: Asset Management says investors in French bonds will be monitoring developments.

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Speaker 4: We know as well that lots of Asian investors have

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Speaker 4: bought France bonds because it's a little bit like Germany

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Speaker 4: with a little bit extra yield. But there's no such

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Speaker 4: things are free lunch as that, and we start to

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Speaker 4: see that yield as high as it was back in

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Speaker 4: twenty twelve, we has the ten year twelve year high,

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Speaker 4: so I think that that could be another trigger to

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Speaker 4: keep an eye on and we'll be watching that before

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Speaker 4: the end.

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Speaker 5: Of the year.

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Speaker 1: Ben Bennett there from Energy Asset Management. The French government

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Speaker 1: faces the risk of being toppled in the coming weeks

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Speaker 1: as opposition lawmakers threatened to unite in a no confidence

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Speaker 1: vote over its fiscal plans.

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Speaker 2: Thoseers in Ireland goes polls today after a general election

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Speaker 2: campaign dominated by the cost of living that's just spot

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Speaker 2: the buoyant Irish economy, budget surplus and recent giveaway budget hadgoing.

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Simon Harris is looking to return his Finagaeal

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Speaker 2: party to power along with his coalition partner's Phenofoil, while

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Speaker 2: the opposition Chinfein is seeking to build a majority with

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Speaker 2: other left wing parties.

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Speaker 1: Sweden has sent China a formal request for cooperation regarding

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Speaker 1: a commercial Chinese vessel and its potential involvement with cut

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Speaker 1: data cables in the Baltic Sea. Prime Minister Ulf Christensen

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Speaker 1: told reporters that the Nordic country sent the request after

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Speaker 1: previously expressing a wish to see the ship move towards

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Speaker 1: Swedish waters. He added that the request implies no accusation

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Speaker 1: against China. The bulk carrier Ye Paying three is currently

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Speaker 1: anchored in international waters close to Sweden and Denmark, and

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Speaker 1: was in the vicinity of the two high speed fiber

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Speaker 1: optic cables when they were cut earlier this month.

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Speaker 2: In the UK, members of Parliament will hold a landmark

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Speaker 2: vote on assisted dying today. Lawmakers will decide whether to

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Speaker 2: allow terminally ill people with less than six months to

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Speaker 2: live to opt to end their own lives. The legislation

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Speaker 2: was put forward by backbench MP Kim Leadbeater and stipulates

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Speaker 2: that two doctors and a High Court judge would also

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Speaker 2: be required to approve any assistant dying decisions. Co sponsor

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Speaker 2: of the bill, conservative Kit Malthause says the debate is

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Speaker 2: about personal freedom.

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Speaker 6: I mean, since I've been basically a teenager, I've always

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Speaker 6: believed in choice, liberty and personal autonomy. And I can't

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Speaker 6: think of all more profound moment that I would need

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Speaker 6: though those three things, than when I'm facing an agonizing death.

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Speaker 2: That's Conservative MP Kit Malthouse speaking on the Boomberg UK

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Speaker 2: Politics podcast. It's the first vote about the issue in

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Speaker 2: the UK since twenty fifteen, and if the bill passes

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Speaker 2: this second reading, it will still face several more parliamentary

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Speaker 2: steps before becoming law.

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Speaker 1: Australia has passed the law banning children under the age

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Speaker 1: of sixteen from social media platforms like Facebook, Instagram and TikTok.

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Speaker 1: Tech companies will be responsible for enforcing the ban and

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Speaker 1: face fines of up to thirty two million US dollars

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Speaker 1: if they fail to comply. While polling suggests that more

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Speaker 1: than three quarters of Australian voters back the move, many

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Speaker 1: argue it won't achieve its aim of protecting children from

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Speaker 1: harmful content. Here is Australian Greens Party Senator Sarah Hanson.

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Speaker 7: Young doesn't actually make social media safer for young people.

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Speaker 7: And that's the devastating thing about this, because we know

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Speaker 7: that there are families who are struggling with this. We

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Speaker 7: know there are young people who are struggling with their

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Speaker 7: body image, their connection with their community, their peers, young

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Speaker 7: people who are finding themselves addicted to these dangerous algorithms.

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Speaker 8: But this bill doesn't do any of that.

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Speaker 1: Sarah Hunson Young, speaking there in the Ralian Parliament. Meta

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Speaker 1: x and other social media platforms have expressed strong opposition

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Speaker 1: to the law, citing concerns over its practicality and potential unlawfulness.

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Speaker 2: Saudi Back to Live Golf is said to be weighing

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Speaker 2: a possible merger with Europe's DP World Tour. If successful,

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Speaker 2: it would Cemental Live Golf's position in the golfing calendar

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Speaker 2: and give the DP World Tour, previously known as the

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Speaker 2: European Tour, significant financial heft. The talks come as expectations

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Speaker 2: of a deal between Saudi's public investment fund and the

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Speaker 2: PGA Tour at closer after more than a year of talks.

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Speaker 1: Those are your top stories this morning. Let's go to

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Speaker 1: the markets right now, where the Japanese yen is surging

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Speaker 1: a close to one percent higher. Tokyo inflation data exceeded estimates,

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Speaker 1: coming in hotter than expected in terms of other markets

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Speaker 1: we're looking at. Shares in China have gained quite significantly

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Speaker 1: one point three percent for the CSI three hundred, speculation

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Speaker 1: Beijing might provide more support for the economy that has

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Speaker 1: also helped to live to other Asian EQUITIESMSCI Asia Pacific

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Speaker 1: Index up two tenths of one percent. US and European

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Speaker 1: stock futures this morning, but mixed your socks. Fifty futures

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Speaker 1: are actually in the red, Barkley saying that they're watching

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Speaker 1: the oat Boont spread because of the decisions in France

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Speaker 1: that the budget debates. Basically that those spreads could push

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Speaker 1: north of one hundred basis points if Marine Lapenn continues

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Speaker 1: to threaten a no confidence vote there. So that's another

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Speaker 1: issue we'll be watching closely in markets today.

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Speaker 2: In the moment, we'll bring you more on that underperformance

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Speaker 2: by major banks, FX and rates businesses, plus tell you

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Speaker 2: the story of a former London finance executive has now

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Speaker 2: turned his hand to revolutionizing the market for livestock. But

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Speaker 2: not the story that caught ari I this morning by

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Speaker 2: our colleagues Sarah Rappaport, who's been speaking to the luxury

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Speaker 2: property tyco Nick Candy is going all in on non

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Speaker 2: alcoholic wine. He says that he's the founder of the

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Speaker 2: two year old sparkling non alcoholic wine label Wild Idol.

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Speaker 2: Says he was inspired to get them into this business

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Speaker 2: because of a number of his friends and his wife

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Speaker 2: who had given up alcohol, either temporarily or permanently, and

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Speaker 2: he says that his goal is to create the Rolls

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Speaker 2: Royce or Don Perignon of zero alcohol.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I like this idea. Sarah Rappert writes about it very

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Speaker 1: nicely in terms of, you know, the tastes and the

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Speaker 1: quality of this zero alcohol champagne brand.

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Speaker 2: I did notice the part champagne, Caroline.

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Speaker 1: Well, yes, no, it's obviously it's not champagne. But the

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Speaker 1: thing is the price tag is quite similar to champagne.

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Speaker 1: It's something like nearly thirty pounds, which I thought was

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Speaker 1: quite quite notable. I mean, maybe this is a story

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Speaker 1: for the post Thanksgiving crowd. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Indeed. Sarah describes the white version of this sparkling worm

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Speaker 2: by the way as having fresh, crisp taste with apple notes. Okay,

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Speaker 2: so there you are. Let's bring you more though in

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Speaker 2: our top story. And it's that time of year when

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Speaker 2: traders are assessing their performance. For the world's biggest banks,

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Speaker 2: revenue in trading from foreign exchange and rates has been

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Speaker 2: the worst since the pandemic. It's been a bad year

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Speaker 2: for big macro calls. Let's bring in our finance reporter

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Speaker 2: Wilmshaw for more on this. Well, why has this year

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Speaker 2: been so tough?

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Speaker 9: So broadly speaking, banks have been hit by tighter margins

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Speaker 9: and tougher macroeconomic conditions than in the last few years.

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Speaker 9: That's according to data that Coalition Greenwitch shared with US.

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Speaker 9: I think what we saw is sort of confidence fading

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Speaker 9: a bit amongst investors in making big bets on macro conditions.

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Speaker 9: There were surprises in economic data that undercut bets that

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Speaker 9: people were trying to make on interest rate cuts that

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Speaker 9: central banks would be implementing during the year. People were

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Speaker 9: also concerned in the run up to the US election

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Speaker 9: that it was too close to call, making it harder

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Speaker 9: to place big bets. And then you had, if you

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Speaker 9: remember a few months ago, the unwind of yen funded

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Speaker 9: carry trades around the action that happened with the Bank

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Speaker 9: of Japan and all that effectively made it a bit

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Speaker 9: of a year of sitting on sidelines.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, who has suffered the most then when it comes

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Speaker 1: to these big Wall Street banks.

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Speaker 9: So the data looked at two hundred and fifty firms

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Speaker 9: including like Goldman City, JP, Morgan, the usual suspects. It

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Speaker 9: didn't get into numbers on individual banks, but the biggest

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Speaker 9: year on year drop in general terms was among rates

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Speaker 9: traders rather than FX traders. So the firms were forecast,

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Speaker 9: according to Coalition, to make a total of thirty two

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Speaker 9: billion dollars from G ten rates trading during this year,

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Speaker 9: and that would be down seventeen percent on last year.

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Speaker 9: The comparative drop for FX traders is big, but at

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Speaker 9: nine percent it's quite a bit less than that.

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Speaker 2: How do things look then for next year, Well, it's.

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Speaker 9: A bit of a mixed picture. I think for rates

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Speaker 9: in particular, it's going to be a bit of a

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Speaker 9: continued darker outlook. So Coalitions see rates trading dropping to

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Speaker 9: thirty one billion dollars in twenty twenty five and then

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Speaker 9: dropping further again the next year, though that's a long

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Speaker 9: time away and anything could change in that time. For

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Speaker 9: rates in particular, there are sort of concerns about the

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Speaker 9: bank's business being eaten up a bit by non bank

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Speaker 9: market makers of the likes of Jane Street and Citadel

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Speaker 9: Securities that are expanding their presence in the market, and

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Speaker 9: with bonds catching up, the electronification of other markets as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, and thank you so much will for being

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Speaker 1: with Uspoomberg's finance reporter William Shaw. They're just taking us

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Speaker 1: through that story, I mean, obviously hugely important and interesting

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Speaker 1: at the end of this year. If you want to

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Speaker 1: read more about it, Wall Street macro Trader's head for

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Speaker 1: worse years since the pandemic.

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Speaker 2: But if you're considering any alternative choices, should be comforted

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Speaker 2: to know there is life after trading. Maria Russio stepped

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Speaker 2: down as London Stock Exchange Groups head of Capital Markets

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Speaker 2: last October. As DECOMP two is two hundred acre firem

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Speaker 2: and East Sussex. On top of the Farum. He now

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Speaker 2: wants to revolutionize the buying and selling of livestock in

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Speaker 2: the UK. Pinburgs Lauren in and has been writing about

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Speaker 2: this and she joins us now for more. Good Morning Laura.

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Speaker 2: Equity markets to cattle markets. Quite the leap. Why did

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Speaker 2: Mary decide to make this decision?

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Speaker 5: So yeah, it is quite an interesting when so Mary

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Speaker 5: comes from farming from a farming background. Well, his family

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Speaker 5: would have had farms when he was in Africa and

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Speaker 5: in bad.

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Speaker 8: Way growing up.

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Speaker 5: He always kind of wanted to get because of the

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Speaker 5: land from living in London. So he bought this farm

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Speaker 5: towards the end of the pandemic to try to teach

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Speaker 5: his kids about how food is created and to try

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Speaker 5: to get them into a more natural way of living.

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Speaker 5: Then when he left Elsa, he started spending more time

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Speaker 5: down there. He discovered for the he discovered how livestock

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Speaker 5: is bought and sold in the way it's basically brought

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Speaker 5: to auction. It's paraded around one of those traditional grandstands

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Speaker 5: and the price they're set on the day, And he

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Speaker 5: was quite frustratious that he would have no idea how

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Speaker 5: much he was going to get until his farm mark

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Speaker 5: the until the farm manager actually went physically into this

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Speaker 5: grand sat and pray to the cattle. So he decided

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Speaker 5: it was time to take livestock trading on a digital

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Speaker 5: journey similar to which equities went through during his trading career,

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Speaker 5: and he decided he was a man who was going

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Speaker 5: to try that.

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Speaker 1: It's a really interesting piece. You've got lovely photographs. Also

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Speaker 1: must say is it a hobby. Is it a kind

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Speaker 1: of middle life crisis? Is it a real business? Is

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Speaker 1: it doing well?

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Speaker 5: So it hasn't actually started yet so so far they're

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Speaker 5: just at the proof of concept stage where they're about

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Speaker 5: to raise capital for it. So they have done a

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Speaker 5: ton of research in terms that they've been speaking to farmers, auctioneers,

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Speaker 5: people who they think will use this, and they've developed

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Speaker 5: the solution. He is very much commoted to this as

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Speaker 5: being his next business activity. I mean they're trying to

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Speaker 5: raise a million pounds for it. They do this as.

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Speaker 8: Something that they can take forward.

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Speaker 5: In terms of I mean there have been various attempts

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Speaker 5: at this before, although not quite as advanced as this one.

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Speaker 5: So you know, people try selling live stuff on Facebook

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Speaker 5: back in the day. Faithbook actually now bands you from

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Speaker 5: selling livestock or sorry they tried advertising it on Facebook.

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Speaker 5: Faithbook now bands that there are some classified ad platforms

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Speaker 5: where you can.

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Speaker 8: Buy and sell.

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Speaker 5: Having spoken to people who are currently active in the

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Speaker 5: livestock market, so the auctioneers who run them, they say

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Speaker 5: that people still like to see the animals that it

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Speaker 5: isn't like. So what they're going to be doing on

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Speaker 5: livestock X, which is Mry's platform is listing a ton

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Speaker 5: of really detailed data about the animals, and they believe

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Speaker 5: that is enough for people to make a purchase. If

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Speaker 5: you talk to people in the auctioneering business, they say,

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Speaker 5: you can't beat actually seeing the cow. Now that's something

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Speaker 5: which I think people are going to go back and

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Speaker 5: forward on because it would be much cheaper to do

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Speaker 5: it this way. And it's whether the value of actually

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Speaker 5: seeing the cow is enough to make you want to

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Speaker 5: pay in extra three four five percent to actually travel

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Speaker 5: to the auction, pay the auctions commissions, pay the fees.

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Speaker 5: I think it's probably also going to be something where

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Speaker 5: these changes don't happen quickly, and farming is a very

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Speaker 5: old industry, so I think it's also going to be

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Speaker 5: something that it will take quite a bit of time

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Speaker 5: for this to gain traction if it does as a

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Speaker 5: significant or turn it in to livestock auctions.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a fascinating idea that you'd revolutionize such an

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Speaker 2: old industry in this way. I mean, what about the

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Speaker 2: technology involved, Laura, what's the kind of proposition from that.

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Speaker 8: Point of view?

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Speaker 5: So the first thing is it isn't blockchain, and initially

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Speaker 5: I thought that they were going to because on the blockchain,

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Speaker 5: which would have been great crack, but it's.

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Speaker 8: Kind of pointless.

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Speaker 5: So Murray's last job at ELSEAG, part of what he

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Speaker 5: was involved in is el SAG's Digital Assets program, where

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Speaker 5: they were trying to put some actual traditional.

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Speaker 8: Training on the blockchain. So I was like, oh, blockchain, but.

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Speaker 5: Actually no, because blockchain is a set too far for

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Speaker 5: this particular enterprise.

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Speaker 8: You actually don't need it. Partly because the whole idea

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Speaker 8: with blockchain is you have this.

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Speaker 5: Permanent record of something which cannot be interfered with, and

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Speaker 5: in the case of cattle, there's.

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Speaker 8: Already a permanent government held record for the kettle, so

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Speaker 8: you already have that part.

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Speaker 5: But also I think Murray does recognize that the customer

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Speaker 5: base for this is quite a traditional and life and

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Speaker 5: blockchain is a lot to get your head around.

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Speaker 8: So it's more sotional training technology.

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Speaker 5: So it's more like if you think of how the

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Speaker 5: equities markets were done through open outcry back in the day,

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Speaker 5: and they're now done through electronic trading, so it's electronic trading.

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Speaker 5: What else makes murray Platform different to some of the

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Speaker 5: more classified ad basing is you do actually transact on.

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Speaker 8: The platform, so it's not like we.

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Speaker 5: Meet on the platform the way you'd meet on a

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Speaker 5: classfic AD platform and agree to transact.

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Speaker 8: You actually pay livestock X.

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Speaker 5: They then custody the money until the cattle are delivered

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Speaker 5: to the farm. They then release it if they as seen.

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