Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: A single best idea, my last of the year. Thank
Speaker 2: you so much for the support. This has just been
Speaker 2: a little thing we've pulled out there. I figure people
Speaker 2: are listening to Odd Lots and Everybody's Business and all
Speaker 2: our wonderful podcasts. They're fifteen twenty minutes long. And the
Speaker 2: goal here was just a little vignette that you can
Speaker 2: throw in and listen to when the mood strikes. Our
Speaker 2: mood was to go for better conversation, longer conversation with
Speaker 2: smarter people, and to have back to back Stephen Major
Speaker 2: and Jim Kern. Major now from HSBC and legendary Jim
Speaker 2: Karn called him the James Bond of fixed income. Stephen
Speaker 2: Major now at Tradition based out of Dubai. We celebrate
Speaker 2: that new set of duties for mister Major and then
Speaker 2: Jim Karen, iconic at Morgan Stanley. Back to back. That's
Speaker 2: the way we finished the year strong. You're Stephen Major,
Speaker 2: and you need to look at the five year yield.
Speaker 3: If you want one number on the curve, it's probably
Speaker 3: five to thirty year. You can ask Jim next. Send
Speaker 3: in my regards, but Jim will have an idea as well.
Speaker 3: I think twos ten's can be quite distorted because two's
Speaker 3: is about the FED. That that is as simple as that.
Speaker 3: Two's is not a credit risk story. It's not a
Speaker 3: sovereign risk story. It's not about auctions or anything. Really,
Speaker 3: twos is safe, twos is about the FED. Tens starts
Speaker 3: to be a bit more cyclical, a bit more about
Speaker 3: the data and looking into longer term sort of trends.
Speaker 3: I think fives thirties is your best measure of the
Speaker 3: curve because you're capturing something that is close to where
Speaker 3: the FED is and sensitive to rates, but not quite
Speaker 3: sensitive as twos, and I think I think it captures
Speaker 3: the whole story of five thirties.
Speaker 2: You're Stephen Major of Tradition. He was really good. I
Speaker 2: asked him about Dubai and I just said, it's like
Speaker 2: a new Dubai and he was, Adam, I've been to
Speaker 2: Dubai four or five times and you know, it was
Speaker 2: earl in the boom if you will, and it was
Speaker 2: a little shaky. And he says, that's really gone. It's
Speaker 2: really captured a destination city much more than in previous decades.
Speaker 2: Stephen Major from Dubai with tradition on to Jim Karen
Speaker 2: and Morgan Stanley. Yes, out with an outlook. But Jim
Speaker 2: Karn here on the fears we hold in fixed income.
Speaker 1: Default risks are relatively low. We're not really seeing materially
Speaker 1: a material widening of default risks or increase in default risks.
Speaker 1: Interest rates, while they may drift a little bit higher
Speaker 1: in the back end, they don't seem like they're moving
Speaker 1: out of control. You know, they might go a little higher,
Speaker 1: but certainly not to levels that I think we'll destroy
Speaker 1: the equity markets. So I think twenty twenty six, at
Speaker 1: least from the bond markets perspective, I don't think the
Speaker 1: bond market's going to get in the way of equities.
Speaker 2: Jim Karen of Morgan Stanley. We're on on podcasts, on Apple,
Speaker 2: on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. Single best Idea