WEBVTT - Inflation and the Class War 0:00:04.960 --> 0:00:10.039 Can we record this episode? Sure, let's start. I'm sure, 0:00:10.640 --> 0:00:13.280 I'm sure we could use some of that as the opening. Hi, 0:00:13.400 --> 0:00:16.119 welcome to It could happen here the podcast that is 0:00:16.160 --> 0:00:20.919 about medical ethics in the eighteen sixties, not today, but 0:00:21.120 --> 0:00:25.480 fair Yeah, no to today today. It's it's me because 0:00:25.520 --> 0:00:29.280 we're long and we're doing an episode about inflation and 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:34.280 speaking of medical ethics while speaking of kinks. Actually, the 0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:36.400 moment I said that, I was like, I have opened 0:00:36.440 --> 0:00:40.320 myself up for that was some of the broad side 0:00:40.360 --> 0:00:43.120 that was from some of the first weird interport internet 0:00:43.120 --> 0:00:45.400 porn I came apart. It was specifically the cast of 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.960 duck Tails being like, okay, let's get to the topic 0:00:50.000 --> 0:00:54.080 of the episode. That is, this episode is now about 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:59.080 duck Tails, inflation, fetish pornography. That is enough pre rebel 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:02.440 CHRISTI for what do you have for us today? Yeah, 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:07.480 so we're talking about inflation. Um, we're talking about economic inflation. 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:11.600 To be fair, this is somebody was making money off 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:16.600 of that inflation. I'll tell you that much. God. I 0:01:16.640 --> 0:01:20.800 mean one thing, duck Tails actually does crossover because of 0:01:20.840 --> 0:01:23.880 Scrooge McDuck and his giant and his giant. That's true, 0:01:24.400 --> 0:01:27.520 and that actually it does. That's right, you can tell 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:29.400 you right now, that's not the only thing about him 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:36.560 that was inflated. Oh boy, talking about is dick. Okay, 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:41.600 let's let's keep it, keep it on tracked. Okay, So 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:44.800 all right, all right, if people are inflation, it's not good. 0:01:44.959 --> 0:01:48.040 It's pretty high. It's I probably should have looked up 0:01:48.040 --> 0:01:51.720 the inflation rate, isn't it, Like, yeah, I think it's 0:01:52.880 --> 0:01:56.200 every it keeps going point six. Yeah. Yeah. But every 0:01:56.200 --> 0:01:59.040 time someone says it's this or it's that, people are like, 0:01:59.080 --> 0:02:01.200 well no, but they also change these these and these 0:02:01.240 --> 0:02:03.760 indicators five years ago and these other ones ten years ago. 0:02:03.800 --> 0:02:07.600 So really it would be this, and there's judging who's 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:10.880 securate about that? This? This is the thing. I didn't 0:02:10.880 --> 0:02:12.960 put this in the episode, but there's a thing that 0:02:13.040 --> 0:02:16.120 if you study economics you will realize pretty quickly is 0:02:16.200 --> 0:02:19.000 that all of the like basically all of the aconstancy 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.120 so we have are fucking bullshit, and they're like are 0:02:21.160 --> 0:02:25.120 basically they're they're they're really really fake, Like yeah, like 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:26.800 we we don't like one of one of the big 0:02:26.800 --> 0:02:29.560 ones that you know, is like one of the underlying 0:02:30.240 --> 0:02:32.760 things that makes all economics fake is that no one 0:02:32.800 --> 0:02:36.120 knows how to actually calculate the value of of just 0:02:36.200 --> 0:02:38.200 like a factory. Like like if if you have like 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:40.240 a bundle of goods, right, and they're not the same thing, 0:02:40.800 --> 0:02:42.560 so I don't know, you have two factories they make 0:02:42.560 --> 0:02:45.840 different things. Actually figuring out what the value of that 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:50.440 is is like fucking impossible, and the like the way 0:02:50.440 --> 0:02:52.040 that it's done, and like if if you look at 0:02:52.080 --> 0:02:55.760 like like there are these like the um producer statistical animals, right, 0:02:56.440 --> 0:02:59.520 and the values that are in the like the un 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.400 ci people animals are literally them guessing because because the 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:05.040 thing is like the value depending on like the actual 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:07.280 value of the thing changes right depending on where it is, 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:10.040 unlike a supplied tomanker blah blah blah blah. And so 0:03:10.280 --> 0:03:12.679 they literally just tell the people who are doing the 0:03:12.680 --> 0:03:15.360 econometrics should just like pick a pick a random like 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:19.560 price that they that that they think is equilibrium. So 0:03:19.680 --> 0:03:22.360 it's it's completely bullshit. It's it's it's bullshit, like literally 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:25.280 all the way down. It's nonsense. All of the indexes 0:03:25.320 --> 0:03:31.880 are wrong. Uh yeah. Unfortunately the field of economics doesn't 0:03:32.200 --> 0:03:34.480 really care about this that much, So we're gonna have 0:03:34.520 --> 0:03:37.640 to sort of take them seriously. And the thing I 0:03:37.640 --> 0:03:41.240 specifically want to talk about today was there was a 0:03:41.280 --> 0:03:43.880 really interesting paper that was produced by two economists at 0:03:43.880 --> 0:03:47.560 the DC Federal Reserve, M. David Rattner and J. Sim 0:03:47.600 --> 0:03:50.360 about why inflation happens, which is called Who Killed the 0:03:50.400 --> 0:03:53.640 Phillips Curve and Murder Mystery, and which we're talking about 0:03:53.640 --> 0:03:57.560 this for two reasons. One uh, one because it's funny, 0:03:57.640 --> 0:03:59.960 because I what is going to happen over the course 0:04:00.080 --> 0:04:02.680 of this paper is that the Federal Reserve has combat 0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:05.800 Federal Reserve has discovered Marxism, and they are going to 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:10.680 attempt to solve this mystery of inflation by by applying 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:15.640 by by by applying marks. And the second thing, the 0:04:15.640 --> 0:04:17.039 second reason I want to talk about this is that 0:04:17.080 --> 0:04:19.200 it reveals something that's very very important about the current 0:04:19.200 --> 0:04:23.240 political situation, which is that both economists and like the 0:04:23.279 --> 0:04:26.320 rest of the ruling class in general, do not understand 0:04:26.440 --> 0:04:29.040 what inflation is or what they sort of unders that 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:30.600 kind of understand what it is. They don't know what 0:04:30.640 --> 0:04:33.960 causes it um And before we go on here, I 0:04:34.000 --> 0:04:39.120 should like explain what inflation is because most people I 0:04:39.120 --> 0:04:41.200 don't know. The way I got talked about I talked 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:43.880 about about this with Garrison like a few days ago 0:04:43.920 --> 0:04:47.680 about like like the way people get taught about inflation 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:50.640 is that inflation is when like your money is worth less. Yeah, 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:53.400 when when the government prints more money so to each 0:04:53.440 --> 0:04:57.680 individual dollar is worth less because it's more of them circulating. Yeah. Yeah. 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:04.200 And and this is like this is this is propaganda. Um, 0:05:04.279 --> 0:05:06.760 that is not what inflation is. Inflation is literally just 0:05:07.040 --> 0:05:11.159 when prices go up. And if you think about it, 0:05:11.160 --> 0:05:13.200 like okay, that that's kind of the same thing sort 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:15.320 of because if prices go up, like your your you know, 0:05:15.360 --> 0:05:20.200 your your dollars are worth less money, right, But mostly 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:23.960 inflation isn't about the amount of money becoming less. Mostly 0:05:23.960 --> 0:05:27.880 it's about something happens that that makes things cost more. Um. 0:05:27.960 --> 0:05:29.640 And you know and and likely yeah, like the it 0:05:29.960 --> 0:05:31.680 is possible for you to get inflation because the government 0:05:31.680 --> 0:05:36.080 pretty too much money. But like mostly are like symbiotic, right, 0:05:36.360 --> 0:05:38.640 government with your money because prices are going up so 0:05:38.640 --> 0:05:41.960 that people need more money in circulation to buy things. Um. 0:05:42.240 --> 0:05:45.400 You saw this happen a lot with the COVID pandemic. Um. 0:05:45.480 --> 0:05:48.320 So it's it's that both these things kind of feed 0:05:48.360 --> 0:05:51.680 off each other and contributing sort of. But but I 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:53.760 think something that's important to understand about this is that 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:56.560 if if you look into the actual econ stuff, like 0:05:56.680 --> 0:05:58.680 the supply of money, like how much money there is 0:05:58.720 --> 0:06:01.000 in the world, has very are a little do with inflation. 0:06:01.000 --> 0:06:03.480 It only really has effects inflation when you're doing with 0:06:03.520 --> 0:06:06.960 like I don't like nineteen thirties twenties Germany or like 0:06:07.240 --> 0:06:09.800 China after World War Two, where just there's literally just 0:06:09.839 --> 0:06:11.839 like you know, the government prints so much money that 0:06:11.880 --> 0:06:13.560 like like my my I have my family has a 0:06:13.600 --> 0:06:16.400 bunch of stories about like literally carrying out baskets full 0:06:16.440 --> 0:06:19.080 of money in China to buy a train ticket because 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:23.720 like everybody knows about buy maur Germany too is like 0:06:23.760 --> 0:06:26.440 the weird arrows full of cash and stuff. Yeah, but 0:06:26.480 --> 0:06:28.719 this stuff that's actually it's really rare, and it's like 0:06:28.720 --> 0:06:30.360 the reason everyone knows. But when it happens is that 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:33.200 it's only happened. It's happened like four or five times, 0:06:33.880 --> 0:06:36.760 and mostly that's not that's not what why inflation happens. 0:06:36.800 --> 0:06:38.760 And if you look at inflation right now, for example, 0:06:38.760 --> 0:06:40.479 there's the prices of like a whole bunch of stuff 0:06:40.480 --> 0:06:44.159 from like food to like microprocessors are going up because 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.640 a it's harder to produce things because of COVID b 0:06:46.800 --> 0:06:49.279 our supply chains are collapsing, and see because Russian invaded 0:06:49.360 --> 0:06:53.840 Ukraine and like absolutely annihilated an enormous portion of the 0:06:53.880 --> 0:06:57.840 global food supply. And this that stuff causes prices to 0:06:57.880 --> 0:06:59.840 go up, right because now it's harder to make a thing, 0:07:00.400 --> 0:07:02.040 and because it's harder to make the thing, that thing 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:07.120 costs more. And this has you know, this has literally 0:07:07.160 --> 0:07:09.240 nothing to do with with the money supply, right, Like 0:07:09.279 --> 0:07:10.680 it doesn't have anything to do with how much money 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:13.600 in a circulation. UM. And there's another reason that that 0:07:13.600 --> 0:07:16.000 that will get into kind of at the end that 0:07:16.080 --> 0:07:17.920 inflation happens that is not also has nothing to do 0:07:17.960 --> 0:07:20.800 with money, which is that corporations just do price markups 0:07:21.120 --> 0:07:24.320 because they know people will pay for it. And that's 0:07:24.360 --> 0:07:29.440 that's happening to UM. But having an explanation of like 0:07:29.600 --> 0:07:33.800 why inflation is happening is really really politically important, even 0:07:33.880 --> 0:07:35.920 even if the explanation that you have is completely wrong. 0:07:36.880 --> 0:07:41.600 It it allows you to do really powerful things politically. 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:44.280 On Like, one of the ways that neoliberalism sort of 0:07:44.360 --> 0:07:47.160 took power is that in in in the in the 0:07:47.160 --> 0:07:52.440 seventies and eighties, especially in sort of sort of the 0:07:52.440 --> 0:07:55.880 the seventies in particular, both both in academia and a 0:07:55.960 --> 0:07:59.080 sort of politics written large. There's this problem where you 0:07:59.120 --> 0:08:01.120 have a bunch of these old Anes and economists who 0:08:01.120 --> 0:08:04.040 are like Kensians are like they're big on like using 0:08:04.080 --> 0:08:06.280 government spending to keep the economy running, and like you 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:09.200 get a lot of welfare programs. But yeah, it was like, okay, 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:11.360 you can avoid crises by having the government to spending. 0:08:11.640 --> 0:08:14.720 But the problem is that like they couldn't explain why 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:17.920 inflation was happening in the seventies. Um, and this was 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:20.320 because the Kenyans working the Kensians are working out something 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:22.640 called the Phillips curve, and we have to do a 0:08:22.680 --> 0:08:25.720 little bit of econ bullshit. But it's not that complicated. 0:08:25.760 --> 0:08:29.440 I promise I survived it, so it'll be fine. So 0:08:29.600 --> 0:08:32.640 the Phillips curve says that like the closer you get 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.400 to full employment, and like the lower the unemployment rate gets, 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:38.240 the higher inflation rgetts. And this this sort of really 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:41.040 starts to kick in around from like five percent unemployment 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:43.520 to like four percent to three percent unemployment. Uh, the 0:08:43.800 --> 0:08:48.680 inflation rate like spikes. And you know the reason this 0:08:48.720 --> 0:08:51.040 is supposed to happen is because the lower the lower 0:08:51.520 --> 0:08:54.920 the unemployment rate is uh way you start to rise 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:56.599 because as there's lots of people who' unemployed, you have 0:08:56.640 --> 0:08:57.920 to pay them more money to get them to work. 0:09:00.520 --> 0:09:04.120 And yeah, so this is and and the theory behind this, 0:09:04.280 --> 0:09:06.600 right is that like wages increasing is what is what 0:09:06.640 --> 0:09:10.280 causes inflation happened because it makes everything costs more. Now 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.319 there's a simple one obvious this is like, this is 0:09:13.320 --> 0:09:15.760 a very simple and obvious solutions. So the problem of 0:09:15.800 --> 0:09:19.760 why like inflation happens, and like all simple and obvious solutions, 0:09:19.760 --> 0:09:23.640 it is also wrong. The Philips curve does not explain inflation. 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:26.319 I'm gonna I'm gonna refer everyone in the chat to 0:09:28.040 --> 0:09:30.640 this tweet that I made, and I want you to 0:09:30.679 --> 0:09:33.319 look at exhibit A, which is the Phillips curve, And 0:09:33.320 --> 0:09:35.240 then I want you to look at exhibit B, which 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:39.240 is I actually plotted unemployment versus inflation in the US 0:09:39.360 --> 0:09:45.400 from like nineteen until one. And I want to get 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:47.920 a description of what the second graph looks like, because 0:09:47.960 --> 0:09:50.480 it's supposed to look like a curve. Well, so the 0:09:50.520 --> 0:09:53.800 first the first graph we have we have an excite 0:09:53.920 --> 0:09:56.760 an X Y graph of the Phillips curve, starting at 0:09:56.840 --> 0:10:02.360 eight percent closer to the why access and then swooping 0:10:02.640 --> 0:10:06.280 down and then flattening out at a percent on the 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:11.000 x axis for the unemployment rate versus the inflation right. 0:10:11.679 --> 0:10:16.000 And then for the next graph we have, Um, what's 0:10:16.000 --> 0:10:23.960 not a curve? What is instead inflation and unemployment graft? Um? 0:10:24.000 --> 0:10:29.080 Except it's zig zagging everywhere like dark sides omega beams. Um, 0:10:29.440 --> 0:10:32.640 it is not, in fact doing a curve. My my, 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:38.200 my favorite thing about this is that um, like multiple 0:10:38.320 --> 0:10:42.200 multiple like, and this happens with both unemployment and inflation. Uh, 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:44.800 there are multiple unemployment rates that are associated with different 0:10:44.800 --> 0:10:48.199 inflation rates, and multiple inflation rates that that are all 0:10:48.280 --> 0:10:52.559 that that generate two different rates of unemployments. It's incredible. 0:10:52.679 --> 0:10:55.839 It is it is, it is, it is a it 0:10:55.920 --> 0:10:59.520 is an is an absolute sort of monument to how 0:10:59.600 --> 0:11:03.120 much the stuff doesn't work. And there's a really good 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:06.120 reply to your graft tweet that says economists of the 0:11:06.120 --> 0:11:12.160 modern day court astrologers it's basically true, like, which is funny, 0:11:11.640 --> 0:11:18.200 I mean astrologers, though we're probably right. More often that's 0:11:18.240 --> 0:11:21.240 true well, I mean they're simply guessing is it a 0:11:21.280 --> 0:11:24.640 good idea to invade this country or not? Fifty odds 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.559 it works out for you, right if you're if you're 0:11:27.559 --> 0:11:30.800 trying to predict, like I don't know, the SNP five, 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:35.800 there's a lot more variables. Yeah, And and this is 0:11:35.840 --> 0:11:38.120 this is one of the things that like, okay, if 0:11:38.160 --> 0:11:40.720 if you can be the person who like walks into 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:44.080 a lecture and goes the emperor has no clothes, you 0:11:44.080 --> 0:11:47.480 can like attain immediate ultimate power. Because again this stuff 0:11:47.559 --> 0:11:50.640 is like so it's so it's so trivially and easily 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:57.480 like falsifiable that like I you know, like built in 0:11:57.559 --> 0:12:01.040 Friedman is able to do this. And you know, okay, 0:12:01.040 --> 0:12:03.520 so I actually abut the false curve, the Phillips curve 0:12:03.559 --> 0:12:05.000 that like I showed you that it's like a curve. 0:12:05.080 --> 0:12:06.800 It's like a very simple one. There's all of these 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:12.400 really convoluted like modifications to it. Um. There's you know, 0:12:12.520 --> 0:12:14.079 if you look like the new the New Kings in 0:12:14.120 --> 0:12:15.920 Phillips curve or whatever they they've done, they've got a 0:12:15.960 --> 0:12:17.800 bunch of math to it to try to like make 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.640 it kind of work. Um. The problem is that it 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:24.439 doesn't work. Uh, there's there there's a there's another Phillips 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:26.160 curve that's been that was like modified. But then Neil 0:12:26.240 --> 0:12:29.880 By the new classical economists and the new classical economists 0:12:29.880 --> 0:12:32.000 were like, this thing doesn't work. Okay, here's some modifications 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:36.640 you have to put in, but that curve also doesn't work. Uh, 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:38.280 and you know, and this is a real problem, right 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:42.640 because Okay, so if if if this inflation explanation of 0:12:42.640 --> 0:12:46.240 why inflation happens doesn't work, like what is actually happening. Um. 0:12:46.360 --> 0:12:49.320 Milton Friedman, who sort of like takes the the economic 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.040 scene by storm by like predicting a lot of the 0:12:52.040 --> 0:12:53.920 inflation in the seventies and like sort of having an 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:57.640 answer to it. Is his his argument is that inflation 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:01.840 is they print too much money and there's inflate And 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.800 this is kind of a gross oversimplification of of what 0:13:06.040 --> 0:13:09.840 his actual point is. But it's it's it's it's more 0:13:09.920 --> 0:13:13.760 true than any of like Freedman's over simplifications. So I'm 0:13:13.800 --> 0:13:16.280 just I'm just gonna believe it at that. And this 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:18.719 is what the Federal Reserve and like pull Volker used 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.160 to try to try to fight inflation nineteen seventy nine, 0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:24.760 he Volker does. She just tries to massively reduce the 0:13:24.800 --> 0:13:28.400 money supply. The problem is that this didn't work. Like 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:32.240 inflation in like inflation is still like above campertime. I 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:34.520 think it's bikes to like like fifteen percent or something 0:13:34.679 --> 0:13:41.280 like into like nineteen four so and and just based 0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.000 on how much larger Huey, Dewey and Louis got sometimes 0:13:44.000 --> 0:13:52.880 two or three. Do you know who else wants? Oh boy, 0:13:53.240 --> 0:13:56.760 that's right, Garrison. All of our sponsors are into duck 0:13:56.800 --> 0:14:00.839 Tails inflation fetish pornography. This is it could happen here 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.400 a podcast sponsored by the concept of masturbating to the 0:14:04.440 --> 0:14:17.840 cast of duck Tails getting inflated by bicycle pumps. Oh 0:14:17.880 --> 0:14:24.480 we're back. Well I've done my part. Yeah, so okay, 0:14:24.480 --> 0:14:27.320 So so we're left off. Right, There's there's a bunch 0:14:27.360 --> 0:14:30.800 of inflation happening. Some of it is happening to Ducktail's characters, 0:14:30.800 --> 0:14:33.160 most of it is happening to the economy. Uh. Paul 0:14:33.200 --> 0:14:36.840 Volker has tried to stop the inflation by like making 0:14:36.840 --> 0:14:39.200 there be less money, and this has done nothing other 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:44.520 than like dramatically increasing unemployment rate. Now, the problem with again, 0:14:44.760 --> 0:14:47.520 Freedman sort of explanation of of of inflation is that 0:14:47.960 --> 0:14:50.480 inflation persistence of the eighties and it only stops after 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:56.880 insert foreshadowing noise here. Uh, Reagan crushes the unions, and 0:14:57.120 --> 0:14:59.920 we will come back to is to solve inflation, we 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:05.400 should stop all unions. That is your official position. No wow, okay, 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:07.560 but this, this is this is part of the position 0:15:07.560 --> 0:15:11.000 of the of the Marxist federal reserves. So we will 0:15:11.120 --> 0:15:13.440 we will get there a second. So alright, alright, So, 0:15:13.440 --> 0:15:15.760 so the thing I've been describing that that freeman is 0:15:15.760 --> 0:15:18.280 pushing about the money's way, this is called monitorism, and 0:15:18.440 --> 0:15:21.400 monitorism is like the fakest theory of inflation, like it's 0:15:21.440 --> 0:15:23.240 it's a it's a theory of inflation so fake that 0:15:23.280 --> 0:15:26.720 like even other like even other like neo classical economists 0:15:26.720 --> 0:15:29.200 don't accept it, like none of the other different neoliberal 0:15:29.240 --> 0:15:31.200 schools of economics, like every single one of them look 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:33.880 at this and was like this is nonsense, Like what 0:15:33.880 --> 0:15:37.320 what are you doing? But you know, so okay. So 0:15:37.360 --> 0:15:41.600 that though, it's like it's like the TikTok astrology compared 0:15:41.640 --> 0:15:46.240 to the neoliberal court astrology. Yeah, it's it's it's all. 0:15:46.320 --> 0:15:48.720 It's like it's it's it's somehow an even faker explanation 0:15:48.720 --> 0:15:50.800 of this. But you know this, this brings us back 0:15:50.840 --> 0:15:52.600 to like where we started, which is that like, okay, 0:15:52.800 --> 0:15:56.040 so if the monitorist stuff doesn't work, and the Phillips 0:15:56.040 --> 0:16:00.880 curve also doesn't work, Uh, what is causing inflation? And 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:03.080 the answer from inside of the like the actual field 0:16:03.080 --> 0:16:07.000 of economics is that nobody knows. Um. Here's Daniel k Rollo, 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.520 who was the former Federal resent who was a former 0:16:09.560 --> 0:16:12.400 Federal Reserve Bank governor, and was a member of the 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:16.120 Federal Reserve Board. So he's a he's a very very 0:16:16.200 --> 0:16:19.560 high ranking like guy inside the sphere of people who 0:16:19.560 --> 0:16:22.640 try to apply econ ship and uh, here's here's the 0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:26.720 quote that he gave about it. In quote, the substantive 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.320 point is that we do not at present have a 0:16:29.400 --> 0:16:32.360 theory of inflation dynamics that works sufficiently well to be 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.520 of use for the business of real time monetary policy making. 0:16:36.280 --> 0:16:39.280 So what are he's saying there is like if you 0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:41.120 translate that out of econs because you don't even really 0:16:41.120 --> 0:16:43.160 have to translate that out of econs much. What he's 0:16:43.160 --> 0:16:44.800 saying is that he no one has any idea why 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:46.760 inflation works, and none on the models work well enough 0:16:46.760 --> 0:16:49.720 to let you like try to deal with inflation if 0:16:49.720 --> 0:16:51.440 you're you know, the people who control the money supply, 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:56.000 like the Fed. Now economists like we we we've seen 0:16:56.000 --> 0:16:57.720 in the past, if you've been following this stuff in 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.320 the past like ten years issue, especially in the last five, 0:17:00.360 --> 0:17:03.080 economists have been getting like increasingly desperate to explain what 0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.159 the fund is happening, and they're getting increasingly increasingly desperate 0:17:06.240 --> 0:17:08.920 right now because you know, hey, inflation is back, and 0:17:09.200 --> 0:17:11.159 that that brings us to the paper I mentioned at 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:13.760 the top of the episode, which who Who killed the 0:17:13.800 --> 0:17:17.919 Phillips Curve? And Murder Mystery, which opens talking about two 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.920 sort of massive recent failures of the like new Keynsie 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:23.600 and we fixed we we we added variables to the 0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.080 Phillips curve until it like sort of kind of works 0:17:26.200 --> 0:17:29.600 ish maybe, But you know, the only thing they're talking 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:32.359 about two of its sort of like incredibly massive failures. 0:17:32.560 --> 0:17:35.560 The first is in two thousand eight, where there's you know, 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:40.719 there's a recession. Oh really, what happened economically? There's a recession. 0:17:40.760 --> 0:17:42.480 But what's interesting about this, right is that, Okay, so 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:44.200 if you think about this, there's an inflation is there's 0:17:44.320 --> 0:17:49.520 a recession, unemployment skyrockets, this should cause deflation. Well, you know, 0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:52.600 because you know what happened to us in eight the 0:17:52.640 --> 0:17:55.359 official Duct Hills video game came out. So I think 0:17:55.960 --> 0:18:00.960 this could we are through the looking glass people, you know, 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:02.840 I mean, this is this is this is not any 0:18:02.840 --> 0:18:04.800 more bullshit than any of the other stuff they're doing. 0:18:04.880 --> 0:18:08.480 So like, but you know, okay, but there's there's this 0:18:08.520 --> 0:18:11.119 there's this thing that happens. We're like, okay, the like 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:13.960 the inflation that the inflation rate should have been decreasing 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:16.879 and it just stays the same. And economists are like 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.680 what And this is this is called the missing deflationary period. 0:18:19.720 --> 0:18:22.760 There's there's a second thing where d dren this sort 0:18:22.760 --> 0:18:25.760 of like quote unquote economic recovery and the last like 0:18:26.720 --> 0:18:31.840 ten years ish until basically until before the pandemic, employment 0:18:31.920 --> 0:18:34.720 rates dropped really really low, and this should have started, 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:40.280 this should have triggered inflation, but it doesn't. And you know, okay, 0:18:40.280 --> 0:18:43.120 And so the people who run the Philip Philip script, 0:18:43.119 --> 0:18:44.840 like the economist are looking at this and they're like, okay, 0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:47.560 what do we do? And the fed economist solution is 0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:50.160 again and I share you not Marxism, and more specifically, 0:18:50.200 --> 0:18:55.159 the solution is neo Marxism. Yeah, yeah, this is this 0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:56.359 is this is this is something else I'm sort of 0:18:56.359 --> 0:18:58.480 excited about, which is that I finally get to tell 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:00.720 the world what a neo Marxist is, because this is 0:19:00.760 --> 0:19:03.160 technically a thing. It's just that none of the people 0:19:03.160 --> 0:19:05.800 who talked about neo Marxists have any idea what it is. 0:19:05.920 --> 0:19:11.320 The most modern neo marxis actually really well, I mean, 0:19:11.359 --> 0:19:13.880 I guess you could have okay, what what what? Once 0:19:13.920 --> 0:19:15.520 we explain it, I will, I will talk about how 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:17.480 you could theoretically have a post modern neon Marxist. But 0:19:17.480 --> 0:19:24.000 I don't think I ever met whoa how welcome Welltory terms? Okay, okay, 0:19:24.080 --> 0:19:26.720 so I'm excited to hear this. Yeah yeah, all right. 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:29.520 So what what is happening here is that there's an 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:31.520 old joke in Marxist circles that like, the most advanced 0:19:31.520 --> 0:19:34.240 Bushwire economist is fifty years behind the most vulgar Marxist. 0:19:34.359 --> 0:19:37.359 And this is this coming true. Uh, the Federal Reserve 0:19:37.400 --> 0:19:39.880 economists are developing, they're trying to make a new Phillips curve, 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:41.280 and the new Phillips curve is what they call it 0:19:41.320 --> 0:19:44.639 Collecki and Phillips curve because it's based for the guys 0:19:44.920 --> 0:19:47.800 new curve just drops. Yeah, it literally is except this 0:19:47.920 --> 0:19:49.920 this this is this is this is the neo Marxist curve. 0:19:50.000 --> 0:19:52.440 And it's based on the works it's kind of loosely 0:19:52.480 --> 0:19:54.040 based on him, but it's just based on the work 0:19:54.119 --> 0:19:58.200 of a Polish Marxist economist named Mikail Collecki and Clucky 0:19:58.640 --> 0:20:02.880 is a he's a very very weird Marxist, like by 0:20:02.960 --> 0:20:06.919 Marxist standards, is extremely weird. And to explain why this is, 0:20:06.960 --> 0:20:08.720 we we have to we have to speed We're gonna 0:20:08.720 --> 0:20:11.080 have to speed run Marxism one oh one. So I'm 0:20:11.119 --> 0:20:14.399 going to attempt to explain Marxism in one page. All right, 0:20:14.560 --> 0:20:17.200 let's okay, okay, Mark Mark Marxism one oh one. Right. 0:20:17.280 --> 0:20:19.760 You have a worker. She has to go find a 0:20:19.840 --> 0:20:22.400 job and sell her labor to like get food to eat, 0:20:22.840 --> 0:20:26.120 because otherwise you can't support herself. Um, so she goes 0:20:26.160 --> 0:20:28.520 to work at a factory that makes like hospital stretchers. 0:20:29.080 --> 0:20:31.480 Now under capitalism, and this is this is this is 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:33.240 this is one thing I'm explaining. This is this is 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:36.440 like the this is the orthodox Marxist interpretation. So the 0:20:36.440 --> 0:20:38.320 people who are about to scream at me for a 0:20:38.359 --> 0:20:40.520 million years about how this is wrong, I'm explaining the 0:20:40.640 --> 0:20:47.920 orthodox position. Damnit, uh Marxism here? Yeah? No, okay, yeah, 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:52.199 Chris quick, question what what? What? What? What was Marx? 0:20:54.040 --> 0:20:58.200 So Marx was a experiment in psychological experiment run by 0:20:58.359 --> 0:21:07.320 the by Harvard University was concluded in but he wrote, 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:08.640 he wrote a bunch of books. And one of those 0:21:08.640 --> 0:21:11.960 books is Capital, and and it in capital. So okay, 0:21:12.000 --> 0:21:14.639 so you have you have your worker, right, and she 0:21:14.800 --> 0:21:18.240 she she works to make hospital stretchers. And the thing 0:21:18.320 --> 0:21:22.240 that makes the hospital stretcher have value is the amount 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:23.879 of time that it takes a worker to make it. 0:21:24.520 --> 0:21:27.840 So under under this, this sort of understanding of what 0:21:27.880 --> 0:21:31.159 Marxism is, value is just labor time. Right, The value 0:21:31.200 --> 0:21:33.600 of an object is how many hours of work it 0:21:33.640 --> 0:21:37.280 takes to make a thing. Now this labor time or 0:21:37.320 --> 0:21:38.800 you know, like and like, how how long it takes 0:21:38.840 --> 0:21:41.560 to make the thing? Uh, The value of it it 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:43.000 isn't measured by like how long it takes aim like 0:21:43.200 --> 0:21:46.320 an individual cot, right, It's measured by like how long 0:21:46.400 --> 0:21:49.200 on average it takes society to make. So you know, 0:21:49.240 --> 0:21:51.080 for example, like you said, this is in Finland, right, 0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:53.840 it's based on how long on average it takes to 0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:57.159 make a hospital stretcher in Finland, not like you know, 0:21:57.200 --> 0:22:01.800