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Speaker 1: average of one hundred and thirty three points, a gain

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Speaker 1: of eight tenths of one percent. Nan Stack up thirty four,

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Speaker 1: a gain of seven tenths of one percent. Stocks are

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Speaker 1: advancing as Fed Chair Janet Yellen signals the economy is

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Speaker 1: still strengthening enough to withstand gradual increases in borrowing costs,

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Speaker 1: despite recent signs of slower job growth. Tenure down four

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Speaker 1: thirty seconds, zeal there one point seven, Gold up four

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Speaker 1: thirty beyounced to twelve forty seven, a gain of four

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Speaker 1: tenths of one percent. Crewed up one oh five of

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Speaker 1: barrel forty nine sixty seven, a gain of two point

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Speaker 1: two percent. I'm Charlie Pellett and that's a Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 1: flash you're listening to taking start with Kathleen Fox on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio. Brexit a vote for the citizens of the

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Speaker 1: United Kingdom to decide if they want to stay in

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Speaker 1: the European Union or go. Latest polls over the weekend

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Speaker 1: showing that all of a sudden, once again, the vote

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Speaker 1: to leave the European Union seems to beginning some strength

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Speaker 1: or is it? Is it polls or people really changing

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Speaker 1: their minds again. Robert Hutton joins us now. He's Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: News UK govern and Politics reporter. He's joining us from London. So, Robert,

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Speaker 1: what did the latest polls show some of up for us? Well,

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Speaker 1: what they show is Leave ahead. We've had three online

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Speaker 1: polls this morning, coming after some poles last week which

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Speaker 1: also showed Leave ahead, and all of them put Leave

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Speaker 1: ahead by margins as much as five percentage points. So

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Speaker 1: on the face of it, they say Brittain is about

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Speaker 1: to leave a European Union. That's on the face of it.

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Speaker 1: But people like you who look very closely at polls,

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Speaker 1: and some recent polls that misled us really in terms

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Speaker 1: of where a vote was going. Important votes over the

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Speaker 1: last couple of years have there's a lot of doubts.

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Speaker 1: Give our listeners an example of a recent example of

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Speaker 1: the polls being so wrong. But the headline one is

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Speaker 1: the general election of last year, when nobody predicted that

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Speaker 1: the Conservatives would win a majority, and indeed they went

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Speaker 1: on to you could have got very good odds against

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Speaker 1: that the day of the election. That more thing that

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Speaker 1: took us all by surprise. Another one two years ago,

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Speaker 1: less than two years ago, another referendum, this time on

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Speaker 1: Scottish independence, and again about two weeks out you had

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Speaker 1: a pole at this time just just one pole, that

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Speaker 1: put Leave significantly ahead. There was an almighty panic, just

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Speaker 1: like today, the pound dropped and then loan hold. Ten

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Speaker 1: days or so later there was a ten point lead

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Speaker 1: for for staying in the United Kingdom. So there are

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Speaker 1: there are reasons to doubt the reliability of poles. And

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Speaker 1: we just had a year long inquiry into whether poles

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Speaker 1: can be trusted and the answer slightly sadly was not.

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Speaker 1: Really these problems are quite difficult to solve and we

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Speaker 1: don't know that they're going to be sold for the referendum,

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Speaker 1: So these these poles need to be taken with a

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Speaker 1: big pinch of salt that they're all we have. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but in your story, your excellent story, Brexit polsters feel

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Speaker 1: pressure with uncertainty. Assured points out that there's there are

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Speaker 1: important implications of the polls misleading the public, and one

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Speaker 1: example you give is that it's very important for the

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Speaker 1: Remain in the UK group to get young voters out

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Speaker 1: to the polls. Yes, so, um so what did the

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Speaker 1: pattern in Britain as in much of the rest of

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Speaker 1: the world is that old people vote and young people

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Speaker 1: don't vote because young people are fectless. And the assumption

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Speaker 1: with on on on good evidence is that in this election,

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Speaker 1: old people are more likely to vote to leave the

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Speaker 1: EU and young people are more likely to vote to

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Speaker 1: stay in the EU. So there there. If you're if

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Speaker 1: you're a Remain campaigner, you're desperately trying to trying to

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Speaker 1: motivate young people to to go out and vote, which,

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Speaker 1: like trying to get teenagers to do anything, is a

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Speaker 1: bit of a thankless task. Um, and if you're, if you're.

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Speaker 1: The thing that the Leave campaigners have got on their

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Speaker 1: side is that there are we we there are a

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Speaker 1: few million people in this country who has one person

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Speaker 1: said to me would walk across broken glass to vote

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Speaker 1: to get Brittain out of the European Union. Now, whether

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Speaker 1: that's enough, Um? Is it? Will? I'll tell you in

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Speaker 1: three weeks. Yeah, it's it's it's it's upon us, isn't it? Um?

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Speaker 1: When you look at uh, the the issues behind is

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Speaker 1: certainly Uh. One of the people who are against Brexit,

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Speaker 1: and even people who are kind of on the sidelines

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Speaker 1: are saying it's it's very difficult to predict with certainty

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Speaker 1: what will happen. And in fact, the Bank of England

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Speaker 1: has come under some criticism recently, including by a Princeton

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Speaker 1: University professor that that saying making these predictions about how

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Speaker 1: hard it will hit the UK economy are are wrong

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Speaker 1: and kind of incendiary, that they're stepping overstepping abound because

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Speaker 1: you don't really know what will happen. Well, you don't know,

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Speaker 1: and there's there's there's, there's there's sort of there's two criticisms.

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Speaker 1: One one a fairer than the other. It is. The

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Speaker 1: Treasury has issued some incredibly specific reports about what would

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Speaker 1: happen in the short term and the long term if

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Speaker 1: Britain left the EU with very precise numbers. Now they

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Speaker 1: can't produce precise numbers and really nobody, nobody knows what's

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Speaker 1: going to happen in the future. That these forecasts are

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Speaker 1: necessarily unreliable. That said, I can say that if I

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Speaker 1: eat take every day for a year, I will probably

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Speaker 1: be fatter at the end of it than if I

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Speaker 1: don't take cake every day for a year. And that

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Speaker 1: kind of what the Treasury would say in their own

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Speaker 1: defense is that that kind of forecasting of if we

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Speaker 1: do this, if we leave the EU, they would say,

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Speaker 1: we are more likely to lose inward investment. It's going

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Speaker 1: to create a lot of uncertainty for businesses that are

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Speaker 1: already putting off spending decisions. Some multinational companies have said

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Speaker 1: they'd move people into the EU. So from that point

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Speaker 1: of view, can say all of that would probably slow

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Speaker 1: the economy, and to some extent even the Leave campaign

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Speaker 1: has acknowledged that they would. It can't get away from

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Speaker 1: fact that there would be short term uncertainty when you

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Speaker 1: don't know what it would look like, so there would

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Speaker 1: be short have certain leave. The campaigners will say, well,

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Speaker 1: in the long term, you know, being tied to the

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Speaker 1: U is not a good thing to be tied to.

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Speaker 1: This is a ship that's sinking. That's that's the leave argument. Well,

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Speaker 1: one of the more compelling arguments seems to me is

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Speaker 1: what this would do to the City of London, potentially

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Speaker 1: the financial district that is so important to the UK,

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Speaker 1: to Europe, really to the world that that uh with

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Speaker 1: a Brexit vote could definitely mean that the city is

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Speaker 1: no longer the center and certain companies would leave. In fact,

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Speaker 1: I think I saw an estimate that what thirty four

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Speaker 1: thousand or thirty eight thousand jobs at least would be

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Speaker 1: at risk. I've seen higher estimates from that. But Jamie

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Speaker 1: had Jamie di'm in here last week saying, um, if

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Speaker 1: if Britain votes to leave, he's telling his staff, you know,

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Speaker 1: do what you do, what you want. But if Britain

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Speaker 1: votes leave, you should know that we would be moving

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Speaker 1: people into the European Union from here now. And there's

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of Euro denominated trades that currently take

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Speaker 1: place through the City of London, and the very interesting

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Speaker 1: question as to whether that could continue if Britain were outside,

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Speaker 1: not just outside the European Single Currency as it is

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Speaker 1: at the moment, but actually outside the European Union. There's

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Speaker 1: a strong argument it wouldn't. I did. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: here one person said to me last week, he said, well, look,

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Speaker 1: the thing about the thing about the city is American

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Speaker 1: bankers want to live in London and their wives want

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Speaker 1: to live in Nonder, their husbands want to live in London.

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Speaker 1: They want to bring their children up in London. They

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Speaker 1: don't want to live in Frankfurt, they don't want to

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Speaker 1: live in Europe. They would find a way, they said,

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Speaker 1: they would find a way somehow to continue doing these

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Speaker 1: things from from London. But again that's uncertainty. We can

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Speaker 1: suspect that. We don't know that, and that is the

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Speaker 1: remain big argument is it's a terrible, terrible risk you're

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Speaker 1: thinking of taking. So what does this mean? I mean,

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Speaker 1: this seems to be so crucial for David Cameron. Oh yes, goodness, yes,

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Speaker 1: I mean. The funny thing about this debate is, in

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Speaker 1: a way is that it's consistently looking at polling the

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Speaker 1: British people are not very exercised about European Union membership,

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Speaker 1: but a very small number of people are extremely concerned

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Speaker 1: about it, and all of them are Conservative members of Parliament,

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Speaker 1: and they forced Cameron in the last Parliament to promise

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Speaker 1: this referendum, and effectively, in the end Cameron sort of said, okay, look,

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Speaker 1: you can have the referendum and I will show you

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Speaker 1: that nobody in the country cares about this thing that

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Speaker 1: you think is the most important thing in the world.

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Speaker 1: And he has effectively enlisted the entire British public to

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Speaker 1: prove a point to his party. And the great danger

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Speaker 1: is that he won't do that. If Britain votes sixty

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Speaker 1: forty to stay in, then he can really turn around

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Speaker 1: and tell him to get lost. But if it's very

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Speaker 1: close or return to the Britain votes to leave, Cameron

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Speaker 1: Cameron will have been proved wrong. If Britain votes to leave,

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Speaker 1: David Cameron, who does not want Britain to leave the

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Speaker 1: European Union, will effectively have suffered the biggest foreign policy

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Speaker 1: defeat for a prime minister, arguably since the SUS War

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Speaker 1: sus Crisis, which you may not be a big deal

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Speaker 1: in America, but that's generally the sort of a benchmark

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Speaker 1: for total foreign policy disasters in British politics. Well, that

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Speaker 1: is that about sums it up, Robert Hutton. If you're

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Speaker 1: a betting man, how do you how do you bet

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Speaker 1: the vocals on I would still bet with Remain, but

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Speaker 1: I'm I'm getting increasingly doubtful about that. Well, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: look forward to talking to you again soon. There's the

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Speaker 1: floss that we get. I think the more exciting there's

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Speaker 1: a vote on Brexit, on the UK leaving European Union

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Speaker 1: or staying more excited gets. Robert Hutton is the UK

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Speaker 1: Government and politics reporter at Bloomberg News in London. Programming

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Speaker 1: note the next two days Taking Stock will be live

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Speaker 1: in Orlando Pershing Insight sixteen two thousand plus investment professionals

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Speaker 1: from all over the world. This is Bloomberg Radio